Continuous postgame learning

adaptive_window_last_120_games · dates 20260922, 20260923, 20260924, 20260925, 20260926, 20260927, 20260929, 20260930, 20261001, 20261003, 20261004, 20261005, 20261006, 20261007, 20261008, 20261010, 20261011 · generated 2026-10-12T09:16:16.982737+00:00

70-43

Winner picks · 62.0%

212

Comparable starters · 8 identity mismatches

118/212

Starter ER within ±1

114/212

Starter workload within ±1 inning

Slate coverage

Every calendar day in the requested window is listed. Pending means the prediction exists but the official final result has not settled; Missing review artifact identifies a data gap instead of hiding the day.

Date	Games	Settled	Pending	Hits	Misses	Calibration traces	Review status	Pipeline versions
20260922	16	15	1	6	9	16	Available	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
20260923	16	16	0	8	8	16	Available	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
20260924	12	12	0	8	4	12	Available	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
20260925	17	17	0	11	6	17	Available	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
20260926	14	13	1	7	6	14	Available	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
20260927	15	14	1	9	5	15	Available	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
20260929	4	4	0	4	0	4	Available	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
20260930	4	4	0	3	1	4	Available	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
20261001	4	1	3	1	0	4	Available	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
20261003	4	4	0	4	0	4	Available	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
20261004	2	2	0	1	1	2	Available	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
20261005	2	2	0	0	2	2	Available	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
20261006	2	2	0	2	0	2	Available	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
20261007	4	4	0	3	1	4	Available	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
20261008	2	1	1	1	0	2	Available	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
20261010	1	1	0	1	0	1	Available	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
20261011	1	1	0	1	0	1	Available	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Prioritized optimization roadmap

Runtime evidence for the six recommendations. “Observed games” counts artifacts generated with the relevant trace; older artifacts remain honestly blank.

Priority	Change	Status	Observed games	Evidence
P1	Empirical Confidence Blend	Implemented And Applied	120	applied games: 120formula: w_emp=min(0.5,sample_size/200); final=(1-w_emp)raw+w_empempirical_hit_rate
P1	H2H Base Feature	Implemented And Monitored	120	available games: 113
P2	Score Distribution Widening	Implemented Above 1.4X	120	variance multipliers: [2.15, 2.25]
P2	Simulation Flip Control	Diagnostic Only Without Independent Support	120	simulation flip candidates: 0published flips: 0
P3	Recent Form Quality Blend	Implemented Last 10	120	configured window: 10last 10 games: 120observed windows: [10]
P3	Continuous Calibration Audit	Implemented	120	settled games: 113metric: bucket_calibration_error

Confidence calibration by bucket

bucket_calibration_error = average published confidence − observed hit rate. Positive means overconfident; negative means underconfident. Weighted absolute error: 0.1324.

Bucket	Games	Average confidence	Observed hit rate	Calibration error	Direction
0.50-0.55	78	52.1%	61.5%	-9.5%	underconfident
0.55-0.60	26	56.4%	73.1%	-16.7%	underconfident
0.60-0.65	7	60.9%	28.6%	32.3%	overconfident
0.65-0.70	1	69.8%	0.0%	69.8%	overconfident
0.70-0.80	1	72.3%	100.0%	-27.7%	underconfident

Where the score pipeline gained or lost quality

Direct comparison against official final runs. Positive deltas mean the stage was worse than historical_ml; this is score error, not a synthetic one-game ERA.

Stage	Games	Team-run MAE	Total-run MAE	Margin MAE	Winner accuracy	Δ team MAE vs base	Δ margin MAE vs base
historical_ml	113	2.3446	3.4114	2.9991	63.7%	0.0	0.0
variance_applied	113	2.354	3.469	3.0088	50.4%	0.0094	0.0097
enhanced_prediction	113	2.3761	3.5664	2.9646	62.0%	0.0315	-0.0345
embedded_savant_run_environment	113	2.3938	3.6372	3.0	60.2%	0.0492	0.0009
fundamental_edge_target_review	113	2.4159	3.6637	3.0088	62.0%	0.0713	0.0097
capped_target	113	2.4159	3.6637	3.0088	62.0%	0.0713	0.0097
simulation_result	113	2.4159	3.6637	3.0088	62.0%	0.0713	0.0097
published_final	113	2.4159	3.6637	3.0088	62.0%	0.0713	0.0097
kpi_layer	9	2.1667	3.8889	1.8889	77.8%	-0.1779	-1.1102

Largest measured regression

{
  "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
  "games": 113,
  "team_run_mae": 2.4159,
  "total_run_mae": 3.6637,
  "margin_mae": 3.0088,
  "winner_hits": 70,
  "winner_accuracy": 0.6195,
  "team_run_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.0713,
  "margin_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.0097
}

Automatic questions

Which recorded score stage reinforced losing picks?

partial_attribution sample=43

Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

Stage	Positive Toward Pick Run Delta	Negative Away From Pick Run Delta	Net Toward Pick Run Delta	Absolute Run Movement	Games Recorded	Games Supporting Pick	Games Opposing Pick	Games Unchanged	Meaning
enhanced_prediction	34.0	-10.0	24.0	44.0	43	19	9	15	reinforced final pick
embedded_savant_run_environment	9.0	-3.0	6.0	12.0	43	9	3	31	reinforced final pick
variance_applied	8.826	-3.9868	4.8392	12.8128	43	26	17	0	reinforced final pick
fundamental_edge_target_review	4.0	0.0	4.0	4.0	43	4	0	39	reinforced final pick
capped_target	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	43	0	0	43	recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	43	0	0	43	recorded but did not change score margin
kpi_layer	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1	0	0	1	recorded but did not change score margin

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 43,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 34.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -10.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 24.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 44.0,
      "games_recorded": 43,
      "games_supporting_pick": 19,
      "games_opposing_pick": 9,
      "games_unchanged": 15,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 9.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -3.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 6.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 12.0,
      "games_recorded": 43,
      "games_supporting_pick": 9,
      "games_opposing_pick": 3,
      "games_unchanged": 31,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 8.826,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -3.9868,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 4.8392,
      "absolute_run_movement": 12.8128,
      "games_recorded": 43,
      "games_supporting_pick": 26,
      "games_opposing_pick": 17,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 4.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 4.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 4.0,
      "games_recorded": 43,
      "games_supporting_pick": 4,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 39,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 43,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 43,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 43,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 43,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "kpi_layer",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 1,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 1,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Which recorded score stage reinforced winning picks?

partial_attribution sample=70

Stage	Positive Toward Pick Run Delta	Negative Away From Pick Run Delta	Net Toward Pick Run Delta	Absolute Run Movement	Games Recorded	Games Supporting Pick	Games Opposing Pick	Games Unchanged	Meaning
enhanced_prediction	37.0	-14.0	23.0	51.0	70	24	11	35	reinforced final pick
embedded_savant_run_environment	19.0	-1.0	18.0	20.0	70	17	1	52	reinforced final pick
variance_applied	12.3179	-12.7722	-0.4543	25.0901	70	39	31	0	reinforced final pick
fundamental_edge_target_review	3.0	0.0	3.0	3.0	70	2	0	68	reinforced final pick
capped_target	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	70	0	0	70	recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	70	0	0	70	recorded but did not change score margin
kpi_layer	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	8	0	0	8	recorded but did not change score margin

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 70,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 37.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -14.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 23.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 51.0,
      "games_recorded": 70,
      "games_supporting_pick": 24,
      "games_opposing_pick": 11,
      "games_unchanged": 35,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 19.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -1.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 18.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 20.0,
      "games_recorded": 70,
      "games_supporting_pick": 17,
      "games_opposing_pick": 1,
      "games_unchanged": 52,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 12.3179,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -12.7722,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": -0.4543,
      "absolute_run_movement": 25.0901,
      "games_recorded": 70,
      "games_supporting_pick": 39,
      "games_opposing_pick": 31,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 3.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 3.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 3.0,
      "games_recorded": 70,
      "games_supporting_pick": 2,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 68,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 70,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 70,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 70,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 70,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "kpi_layer",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 8,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 8,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Are Overs performing worse than Unders?

not_measurable sample=0

The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "total_line",
    "total_selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Are hitter props outperforming pitcher props?

not_measurable sample=0

Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "prop_family",
    "prop_line",
    "selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Which sportsbooks produce better opportunities?

not_measurable sample=0

No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "sportsbook",
    "selection_odds",
    "settled_profit"
  ],
  "books": []
}

Which confidence ranges underperform?

measured sample=113

Range	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
[0.000, 0.525)	47	29	18	0.617
[0.525, 0.550)	31	19	12	0.6129
[0.550, 0.600)	26	19	7	0.7308
[0.600, 1.010)	9	3	6	0.3333

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "measured",
  "sample_size": 113,
  "minimum_recommended_sample": 20,
  "worst_observed_range": {
    "range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
    "sample_size": 9,
    "hits": 3,
    "misses": 6,
    "accuracy": 0.3333
  },
  "ranges": [
    {
      "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
      "sample_size": 47,
      "hits": 29,
      "misses": 18,
      "accuracy": 0.617
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
      "sample_size": 31,
      "hits": 19,
      "misses": 12,
      "accuracy": 0.6129
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.550, 0.600)",
      "sample_size": 26,
      "hits": 19,
      "misses": 7,
      "accuracy": 0.7308
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
      "sample_size": 9,
      "hits": 3,
      "misses": 6,
      "accuracy": 0.3333
    }
  ]
}

Which monitored features are drifting?

insufficient_sample sample=120

Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.

Date	Sample Size	Mean Confidence	Mean Predicted Total	Accuracy
20260922	16	0.5467	9.3125	0.4
20260923	16	0.5347	10.0625	0.5
20260924	12	0.5365	9.4167	0.6667
20260925	17	0.5469	9.1176	0.6471
20260926	14	0.5534	9.4286	0.5385
20260927	15	0.5384	9.4667	0.6429
20260929	4	0.5208	7.75	1.0
20260930	4	0.5183	8.5	0.75
20261001	4	0.5194	9.0	1.0
20261003	4	0.5295	8.0	1.0
20261004	2	0.5344	8.0	0.5
20261005	2	0.5291	7.5	0.0
20261006	2	0.5358	8.0	1.0
20261007	4	0.5228	9.25	0.75
20261008	2	0.5051	8.0	1.0
20261010	1	0.5268	11.0	1.0
20261011	1	0.5482	6.0	1.0

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 120,
  "minimum_baseline_sample": 30,
  "minimum_recent_sample": 20,
  "reason": "Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.",
  "daily_monitors": [
    {
      "date": "20260922",
      "sample_size": 16,
      "mean_confidence": 0.5467,
      "mean_predicted_total": 9.3125,
      "accuracy": 0.4
    },
    {
      "date": "20260923",
      "sample_size": 16,
      "mean_confidence": 0.5347,
      "mean_predicted_total": 10.0625,
      "accuracy": 0.5
    },
    {
      "date": "20260924",
      "sample_size": 12,
      "mean_confidence": 0.5365,
      "mean_predicted_total": 9.4167,
      "accuracy": 0.6667
    },
    {
      "date": "20260925",
      "sample_size": 17,
      "mean_confidence": 0.5469,
      "mean_predicted_total": 9.1176,
      "accuracy": 0.6471
    },
    {
      "date": "20260926",
      "sample_size": 14,
      "mean_confidence": 0.5534,
      "mean_predicted_total": 9.4286,
      "accuracy": 0.5385
    },
    {
      "date": "20260927",
      "sample_size": 15,
      "mean_confidence": 0.5384,
      "mean_predicted_total": 9.4667,
      "accuracy": 0.6429
    },
    {
      "date": "20260929",
      "sample_size": 4,
      "mean_confidence": 0.5208,
      "mean_predicted_total": 7.75,
      "accuracy": 1.0
    },
    {
      "date": "20260930",
      "sample_size": 4,
      "mean_confidence": 0.5183,
      "mean_predicted_total": 8.5,
      "accuracy": 0.75
    },
    {
      "date": "20261001",
      "sample_size": 4,
      "mean_confidence": 0.5194,
      "mean_predicted_total": 9.0,
      "accuracy": 1.0
    },
    {
      "date": "20261003",
      "sample_size": 4,
      "mean_confidence": 0.5295,
      "mean_predicted_total": 8.0,
      "accuracy": 1.0
    },
    {
      "date": "20261004",
      "sample_size": 2,
      "mean_confidence": 0.5344,
      "mean_predicted_total": 8.0,
      "accuracy": 0.5
    },
    {
      "date": "20261005",
      "sample_size": 2,
      "mean_confidence": 0.5291,
      "mean_predicted_total": 7.5,
      "accuracy": 0.0
    },
    {
      "date": "20261006",
      "sample_size": 2,
      "mean_confidence": 0.5358,
      "mean_predicted_total": 8.0,
      "accuracy": 1.0
    },
    {
      "date": "20261007",
      "sample_size": 4,
      "mean_confidence": 0.5228,
      "mean_predicted_total": 9.25,
      "accuracy": 0.75
    },
    {
      "date": "20261008",
      "sample_size": 2,
      "mean_confidence": 0.5051,
      "mean_predicted_total": 8.0,
      "accuracy": 1.0
    },
    {
      "date": "20261010",
      "sample_size": 1,
      "mean_confidence": 0.5268,
      "mean_predicted_total": 11.0,
      "accuracy": 1.0
    },
    {
      "date": "20261011",
      "sample_size": 1,
      "mean_confidence": 0.5482,
      "mean_predicted_total": 6.0,
      "accuracy": 1.0
    }
  ],
  "features_monitored": [
    "confidence",
    "predicted_total",
    "winner_accuracy"
  ]
}

Which model version introduced errors?

insufficient_sample sample=113

Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version.

Pipeline Version	Model Schema Version	Policy Version	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	historical_game_temporal_v11	model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3	113	70	43	0.6195

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 113,
  "minimum_sample_per_version": 30,
  "versions": [
    {
      "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "sample_size": 113,
      "hits": 70,
      "misses": 43,
      "accuracy": 0.6195
    }
  ],
  "reason": "Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version."
}

Game processing context

How each game moved from the historical model through confidence calibration, H2H and recent-form signals, score distribution and simulation policy. Postgame learning is added only after the official result settles.

20260922_ARI@COL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickARI

Published scoreARI 6 - 5 COL

Final confidence56.0%

Calibrationraw 69.7% → blended 63.0%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.3% · weight 50.0% · n=279

H2H base featurehome net -15.0 · absolute 15.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -1.052

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.787624009460735-4.145455061371634	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	6-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	6-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "ARI",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": -0.12,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.44,
    "away_win_probability": 0.56
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.12,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "ARI wins 6-5",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "ARI 6 - 5 COL",
    "confidence": 0.56,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.697207,
    "sample_size": 279,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5627,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.629953,
    "published_confidence": 0.56,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -15.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 15.0,
    "home_average_margin": -3.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0865,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0865,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -9.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.3686,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.464,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -1.052
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.014872093677049792
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.014580299872657028
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.014555154468836562
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.014269579082598903
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.014099756147751085
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04433457063819088,
      "1": 0.06718185094711822,
      "2": 0.09221158195566188,
      "3": 0.11464180885414929,
      "4": 0.1290995226709389,
      "5": 0.131683176038459,
      "6": 0.12166341378159322,
      "7": 0.10181546600938646,
      "8": 0.07717765132408078,
      "9": 0.05298993807964911,
      "10": 0.03295484820746812,
      "11": 0.018563902066131982,
      "12": 0.009472034498917405,
      "13": 0.0043776528938096896,
      "14": 0.0018325820344451786
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.026677289003250705,
      "1": 0.04091487465484983,
      "2": 0.05822439066992085,
      "3": 0.07687991160668393,
      "4": 0.09419004280344724,
      "5": 0.10707332988105597,
      "6": 0.11293844912053376,
      "7": 0.11053161768049721,
      "8": 0.10037265881311314,
      "9": 0.08457237497808905,
      "10": 0.06611893060429451,
      "11": 0.04796310724042085,
      "12": 0.032282933864722724,
      "13": 0.020161501758287712,
      "14": 0.011683069372580426,
      "15": 0.006281671609572164,
      "16": 0.0031338463386800085
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "ARI 6 - 5 COL",
      "winner": "ARI"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "ARI 6 - 5 COL",
      "winner": "ARI"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0433,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.534,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "ARI",
      "model_winner": "ARI",
      "simulation_winner": "ARI",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 1,
        "published_winner": "ARI",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "ARI",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.052,
      "winner": "ARI",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "ARI",
    "display_confidence": 0.56,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6664,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.052,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.464,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0433,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 1.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 11,
        "median": 11,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 0
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-f4c3ec3952acc919",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-21T09:05:52.468019+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
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        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
        "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
        "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
        "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
      }
    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
      "config_id": "candidate-f4c3ec3952acc919",
      "config_hash": "sha256:9ca63931a023e9b6f5e0ed6f872bef54d37bd4e9dc951e5e10b28553b15e3582",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-57e651c7f36832cf",
      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:3d9930771042cec882c8a869e835917939fd7c764fe71a6d765dc4a636b90c8d"
    },
    "changes": [
      {
        "parameter": "score.variance_multiplier",
        "old_value": 2.05,
        "new_value": 2.15,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
      "artifact_replay"
    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-22T23:46:28.621600+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-23T00:40:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.401783,
      "confidence": 0.598217,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "total_runs": 11
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "parent_config_id": "candidate-f4c3ec3952acc919",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-21T09:05:52.468019+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
            "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
            "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
            "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
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            "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
            "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
            "confidence.floor": 0.505,
            "score.variance_multiplier": 2.15,
            "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
            "recent.window_games": 10,
            "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
            "h2h.history_limit": 5,
            "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
            "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
            "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
            "simulation.allow_score": true,
            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
            "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
            "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
            "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
            "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
            "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
            "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
            "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.400339,
      "confidence": 0.599661,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "total_runs": 11
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "parent_config_id": "candidate-57e651c7f36832cf",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-18T09:05:32.063728+00:00",
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            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
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  },
  "score_evolution": [
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      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 6,
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      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260922_CHW@KC

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickCHW

Published scoreCHW 5 - 4 KC

Final confidence50.5%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 52.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.2% · weight 50.0% · n=496

H2H base featurehome net -26.0 · absolute 26.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.8325

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.092092201064534-4.917808657956837	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHW",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.010514,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.505257,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.494743,
    "away_win_probability": 0.505257
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.010514,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHW wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "CHW 5 - 4 KC",
    "confidence": 0.50525691,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 496,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5423,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5262,
    "published_confidence": 0.505257,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -26.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 26.0,
    "home_average_margin": -5.2,
    "home_run_delta": -0.15,
    "away_run_delta": 0.15,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -21.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.0481,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.432,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.8325
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.021807817430817302
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.020960150209752837
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.020734233527767796
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02037449857523685
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.020092586061961053
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06116472027796691,
      "1": 0.09164343066544639,
      "2": 0.12159270098928096,
      "3": 0.14286291105780963,
      "4": 0.14864055127496822,
      "5": 0.13694965478614174,
      "6": 0.11173529985197553,
      "7": 0.08072827604465013,
      "8": 0.05164957830671835,
      "9": 0.029262653469393298,
      "10": 0.014681365512963784,
      "11": 0.006522664194862652,
      "12": 0.002566193567822169
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.058895360538108926,
      "1": 0.08837995436562997,
      "2": 0.11780859344363724,
      "3": 0.13949244233770236,
      "4": 0.14671512749219628,
      "5": 0.13707227536815528,
      "6": 0.11375614294534321,
      "7": 0.08385917860026602,
      "8": 0.05491321355903247,
      "9": 0.0319413762657908,
      "10": 0.016503683998116553,
      "11": 0.007574582214063306,
      "12": 0.003088068871957489
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "CHW 5 - 4 KC",
      "winner": "CHW"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "CHW 5 - 4 KC",
      "winner": "CHW"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0249,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.642,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "CHW",
      "model_winner": "CHW",
      "simulation_winner": "CHW",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "CHW",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "CHW",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.8325,
      "winner": "CHW",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CHW",
    "display_confidence": 0.5053,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6027,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5053,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
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          "9": 0.027539814926798387,
          "10": 0.013359853721396087,
          "11": 0.005705226429189193,
          "12": 0.002144739569856914
        },
        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.05739314334005781,
          "1": 0.08784789653767933,
          "2": 0.11875270238217495,
          "3": 0.1417739416964698,
          "4": 0.14948241484915636,
          "5": 0.1391953010360882,
          "6": 0.11447214542078682,
          "7": 0.08314111577434481,
          "8": 0.05333013131914369,
          "9": 0.03021135721692069,
          "10": 0.015115015513306967,
          "11": 0.006678635427312368,
          "12": 0.002606199486558252
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.05,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.092092201064534,
      "home_runs": 4.917808657956837,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260922_CIN@ATL

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickATL

Published scoreCIN 6 - 9 ATL

Final confidence60.0%

Calibrationraw 90.1% → blended 73.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 57.1% · weight 50.0% · n=126

H2H base featurehome net 6.0 · absolute 6.0 · n=3

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 1.699

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.914817637847719-4.936296488749236	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-8	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-9	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-9	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-9	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-9	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "ATL",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 9,
    "confidence": 0.2,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.6,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.6,
    "away_win_probability": 0.4
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.2,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "ATL wins 9-6",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 9
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 9,
    "predicted_score_text": "CIN 6 - 9 ATL",
    "confidence": 0.6,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.901014,
    "sample_size": 126,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5714,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.736207,
    "published_confidence": 0.6,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 3,
    "sample_weight": 0.0409,
    "home_net_margin": 6.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 6.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0409,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0409,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 2.0064,
    "recent_quality_edge": 1.128,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 1.699
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 8,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.013024453660000096
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 7,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.012772416561326525
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 8,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01269729685044871
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 9,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.012515392949979368
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 7,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.012451590585700547
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.016116702600689085,
      "1": 0.02490995211028489,
      "2": 0.03628007093187812,
      "3": 0.04979226664230673,
      "4": 0.06439530435130399,
      "5": 0.07847747801299296,
      "6": 0.0901227447486903,
      "7": 0.09752642761708144,
      "8": 0.09945090899792158,
      "9": 0.0955638706876568,
      "10": 0.08653209954290154,
      "11": 0.07383449090780747,
      "12": 0.059366283621663865,
      "13": 0.044979950660993646,
      "14": 0.032114164019068976,
      "15": 0.021605921898896013,
      "16": 0.013697695792725801,
      "17": 0.008183154789438997,
      "18": 0.0046067277806289214,
      "19": 0.002443784285068975
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04340882314886424,
      "1": 0.06582015012131745,
      "2": 0.09051208544681454,
      "3": 0.11288107081659562,
      "4": 0.1276740150330257,
      "5": 0.13096364619726394,
      "6": 0.12183325462307243,
      "7": 0.10278926968216114,
      "8": 0.07864960777096333,
      "9": 0.054577317757111214,
      "10": 0.0343474627689033,
      "11": 0.019603967825542603,
      "12": 0.01014752539829474,
      "13": 0.004763686352404122,
      "14": 0.0020281170576656473
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 9,
      "score_text": "CIN 6 - 9 ATL",
      "winner": "ATL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 9,
      "score_text": "CIN 6 - 9 ATL",
      "winner": "ATL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0595,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 1.2447,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 9,
      "winner": "ATL",
      "model_winner": "ATL",
      "simulation_winner": "ATL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "ATL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.8333,
        "draw_majority_team": "ATL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 3,
      "simulation_margin": 3,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 9
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 9
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 3,
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.699,
      "winner": "ATL",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 9,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "ATL",
    "display_confidence": 0.6,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.72,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.6,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.699,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 1.128,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0595,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.8333,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3333,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.6667,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 9,
        "median": 12,
        "max": 13,
        "range": 4
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-f4c3ec3952acc919",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-21T09:05:52.468019+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
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        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
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        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
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        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
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        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
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        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
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        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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    "changes": [
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        "new_value": 2.15,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
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    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-22T22:39:27.646472+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-22T23:15:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.677436,
      "confidence": 0.677436,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 8,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "total_runs": 13
      },
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      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
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            "recent.window_games": 10,
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            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
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            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
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    "candidate_prediction": {
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      "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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        "away": {
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  "score_evolution": [
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    },
    {
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    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 9,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 9,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 9,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 9,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260922_CLE@BOS

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickBOS

Published scoreCLE 3 - 4 BOS

Final confidence50.5%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 52.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.2% · weight 50.0% · n=496

H2H base featurehome net 12.0 · absolute 12.0 · n=3

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.1268

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.133488752570105-4.821217428059169	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "BOS",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.010514,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.505257,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.505257,
    "away_win_probability": 0.494743
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.010514,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "BOS wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "CLE 3 - 4 BOS",
    "confidence": 0.50525691,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 496,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5423,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5262,
    "published_confidence": 0.505257,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 3,
    "sample_weight": 0.0409,
    "home_net_margin": 12.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 12.0,
    "home_average_margin": 4.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0818,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0818,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.5288,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.62,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.1268
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03157208015782883
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.030249493781464746
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.029805065934887402
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.02855650157184715
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.028413358903600743
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.09495160569035592,
      "1": 0.13893679527320696,
      "2": 0.17169881659860178,
      "3": 0.1792059344800353,
      "4": 0.15796924183297922,
      "5": 0.11760552933150305,
      "6": 0.07394656572403184,
      "7": 0.03926841190560274,
      "8": 0.01761179929515767,
      "9": 0.006671126533095452,
      "10": 0.002134173335429836
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.09089296935682557,
      "1": 0.13339233051126315,
      "2": 0.16631740472974058,
      "3": 0.17617764863331667,
      "4": 0.1585514396386587,
      "5": 0.12122601825343864,
      "6": 0.07874586577641476,
      "7": 0.04345762162669757,
      "8": 0.02037560050200403,
      "9": 0.008116357165078681,
      "10": 0.0027467438065618024
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "CLE 3 - 4 BOS",
      "winner": "BOS"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "CLE 3 - 4 BOS",
      "winner": "BOS"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0272,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.5033,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
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    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
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      "home_runs": 4,
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      "model_winner": "BOS",
      "simulation_winner": "BOS",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
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        "draw_count": 3,
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        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333,
        "draw_majority_team": "CLE",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
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        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
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      "simulation_score": {
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        "home_runs": 4
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      "review_required": false,
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      "score_reviewed": {
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        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
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    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
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    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
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        "max": 9,
        "range": 7
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          "run_differential_per_game": 0.01282051282051282,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.5,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0192,
        "quality_edge": 0.1268,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.5288,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 0.5288,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.62,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "conflict",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.1268
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.03271595932824085
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 2,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.031280089322349276
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 2,
            "probability": 0.030798275394487488
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 2,
            "away_runs": 2,
            "probability": 0.02944657057579493
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.02929178508638322
          }
        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.09369883981743428,
          "1": 0.1396732767656943,
          "2": 0.17440089673675296,
          "3": 0.18240653297532905,
          "4": 0.15980425805972745,
          "5": 0.1172715293343566,
          "6": 0.07208636289453521,
          "7": 0.03711674832745773,
          "8": 0.016008218880658176,
          "9": 0.005783255622489565,
          "10": 0.0017500805855648921
        },
        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.08959385837637611,
          "1": 0.13396941646399263,
          "2": 0.16884414660001806,
          "3": 0.17935738810772617,
          "4": 0.1605851753694864,
          "5": 0.12118379469650353,
          "6": 0.07707908720081295,
          "7": 0.04132201548319193,
          "8": 0.01867150594079477,
          "9": 0.007110990789650369,
          "10": 0.0022826209714470903
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.05,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.133488752570105,
      "home_runs": 4.821217428059169,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260922_HOU@SEA

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickSEA

Published scoreHOU 3 - 5 SEA

Final confidence60.0%

Calibrationraw 72.7% → blended 64.3%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.9% · weight 50.0% · n=236

H2H base featurehome net 7.0 · absolute 7.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.2535

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.8457332020495683-4.975609731618868	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "SEA",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.2,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.6,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.6,
    "away_win_probability": 0.4
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.2,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "SEA wins 5-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "HOU 3 - 5 SEA",
    "confidence": 0.6,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.72737,
    "sample_size": 236,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5593,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.643335,
    "published_confidence": 0.6,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 7.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 7.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.4,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0404,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0404,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.0192,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.76,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.2535
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.018994785139768024
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.018888997995317458
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.018778225703798314
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.018673644637972303
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.017619029641146693
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03521310791219545,
      "1": 0.05368904465261698,
      "2": 0.07506452916104552,
      "3": 0.09623911567851039,
      "4": 0.11314523081517074,
      "5": 0.12198000643035156,
      "6": 0.12058931307963641,
      "7": 0.10931927952471,
      "8": 0.09087668374629834,
      "9": 0.06927490682343743,
      "10": 0.048424729153996086,
      "11": 0.031040322193049103,
      "12": 0.01824538411396884,
      "13": 0.009834393268892872,
      "14": 0.004860824062102793,
      "15": 0.0022031293840174084
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07066150348715038,
      "1": 0.10519062513444784,
      "2": 0.13688777232459132,
      "3": 0.15572047990187401,
      "4": 0.1548532300340773,
      "5": 0.13461339000861963,
      "6": 0.10229389414641456,
      "7": 0.0679523717788645,
      "8": 0.03945962788198028,
      "9": 0.02003063921448361,
      "10": 0.008888533008135602,
      "11": 0.0034479330793607994
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "HOU 3 - 5 SEA",
      "winner": "SEA"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "HOU 3 - 5 SEA",
      "winner": "SEA"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0779,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.83,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "SEA",
      "model_winner": "SEA",
      "simulation_winner": "SEA",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "SEA",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "SEA",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.2535,
      "winner": "SEA",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "SEA",
    "display_confidence": 0.6,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6678,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.6,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.2535,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.76,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0779,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.3333,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 8,
        "median": 10,
        "max": 12,
        "range": 4
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-f4c3ec3952acc919",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-21T09:05:52.468019+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
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        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.15,
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
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        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
        "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
        "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
        "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
      "config_id": "candidate-f4c3ec3952acc919",
      "config_hash": "sha256:9ca63931a023e9b6f5e0ed6f872bef54d37bd4e9dc951e5e10b28553b15e3582",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-57e651c7f36832cf",
      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:3d9930771042cec882c8a869e835917939fd7c764fe71a6d765dc4a636b90c8d"
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    "changes": [
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        "old_value": 2.05,
        "new_value": 2.15,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
      "artifact_replay"
    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-23T00:38:32.141165+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-23T01:40:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.640864,
      "confidence": 0.640864,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "total_runs": 9
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
          "config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
          "config_hash": "sha256:53760a5ddffc6f180dee92a59d27889f1cdba857749a59d2378ee233c5952253",
          "parent_config_id": "candidate-f4c3ec3952acc919",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-21T09:05:52.468019+00:00",
          "parameters": {
            "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
            "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
            "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
            "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
            "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
            "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
            "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
            "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
            "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
            "confidence.floor": 0.505,
            "score.variance_multiplier": 2.15,
            "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
            "recent.window_games": 10,
            "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
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            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
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            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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        }
      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.642242,
      "confidence": 0.642242,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
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      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
          "config_id": "candidate-f4c3ec3952acc919",
          "config_hash": "sha256:9ca63931a023e9b6f5e0ed6f872bef54d37bd4e9dc951e5e10b28553b15e3582",
          "parent_config_id": "candidate-57e651c7f36832cf",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-18T09:05:32.063728+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
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            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
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            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
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            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
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            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
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            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
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            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
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            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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    "diagnostics": {
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        "raw_confidence": 0.72737,
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        "raw_confidence": 0.6,
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        "calibration_sample_size": 236,
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        "reasons": [
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        "starter_experience": {
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      "h2h_base_feature": {
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      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
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        "home": {
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          "losses": 83,
          "win_pct": 0.46794871794871795,
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          "run_differential": -56,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.358974358974359,
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        "away": {
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.0192,
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        "season_quality_edge": -0.0192,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
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          "recent_quality_edge": 0.76,
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          "alignment": "conflict",
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      "score_distribution": {
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          "9": 0.018500389396486877,
          "10": 0.007890476619451307
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
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        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.8457332020495683,
      "home_runs": 4.975609731618868,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260922_LAA@OAK

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickLAA

Published scoreLAA 5 - 4 OAK

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 59.0% → blended 57.3%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.6% · weight 50.0% · n=608

H2H base featurehome net -9.0 · absolute 9.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.6836

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.171177076761104-5.2114082083396065	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAA",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.47,
    "away_win_probability": 0.53
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAA wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "LAA 5 - 4 OAK",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.589632,
    "sample_size": 608,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5559,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.572766,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -9.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 9.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.8,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0519,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0519,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -7.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.8622,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.352,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.6836
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01802074068732686
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01740953005386772
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.01723162970667973
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01717736037965188
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.0166932069363516
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05343477770460599,
      "1": 0.08048449357157093,
      "2": 0.10848806793669231,
      "3": 0.13086794555365955,
      "4": 0.14127526964097756,
      "5": 0.13648362713595566,
      "6": 0.1179985082313575,
      "7": 0.09129647901469569,
      "8": 0.06321397362774946,
      "9": 0.03917001191984276,
      "10": 0.021720802514359438,
      "11": 0.010779027522363118,
      "12": 0.004787015626169971
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03971920077593216,
      "1": 0.060376326773134426,
      "2": 0.08365085414937108,
      "3": 0.10563591005741368,
      "4": 0.12158787892109253,
      "5": 0.12755764496590888,
      "6": 0.12197201782357538,
      "7": 0.10630444649981503,
      "8": 0.0844462091392718,
      "9": 0.06114295053772614,
      "10": 0.04035061256743805,
      "11": 0.02427120720779267,
      "12": 0.013306692762599024,
      "13": 0.0066494601431591385,
      "14": 0.0030285876757699254
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "LAA 5 - 4 OAK",
      "winner": "LAA"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "LAA 5 - 4 OAK",
      "winner": "LAA"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1275,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.562,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
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    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
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      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "LAA",
      "model_winner": "LAA",
      "simulation_winner": "LAA",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "LAA",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "LAA",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
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      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
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      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
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    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
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      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
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      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
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    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
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    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
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      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.1275,
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      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
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        "min": 8,
        "median": 11,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 3
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        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "home": {
          "team": "OAK",
          "games": 156,
          "wins": 61,
          "losses": 95,
          "win_pct": 0.391025641025641,
          "runs_scored": 670,
          "runs_allowed": 893,
          "run_differential": -223,
          "run_differential_per_game": -1.4294871794871795,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "LAA",
          "games": 156,
          "wins": 60,
          "losses": 96,
          "win_pct": 0.38461538461538464,
          "runs_scored": 625,
          "runs_allowed": 712,
          "run_differential": -87,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.5576923076923077,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.8718,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0064,
        "quality_edge": -0.6836,
        "season_quality_edge": -0.8622,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.8622,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.352,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.6836
        },
        "margin_adjustment": -0.2871,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": -0.2871,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": -0.6836,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.8622,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 4.846,
          "home_runs": 3.951,
          "home_win_probability": 0.4239
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.01871897797428272
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 5,
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          {
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            "away_runs": 4,
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          },
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 5,
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
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          "3": 0.1328269158100013,
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          "11": 0.009685944142775602,
          "12": 0.004134579850154315
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        "away_distribution": {
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        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.05,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.171177076761104,
      "home_runs": 5.2114082083396065,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260922_MIA@CHC

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickCHC

Published scoreMIA 4 - 6 CHC

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 72.5% → blended 64.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.7% · weight 50.0% · n=127

H2H base featurehome net -1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=3

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.9358

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.9290970901058255-5.8281509179821365	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHC",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.53,
    "away_win_probability": 0.47
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHC wins 6-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "MIA 4 - 6 CHC",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.72548,
    "sample_size": 127,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5669,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.64619,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 3,
    "sample_weight": 0.0409,
    "home_net_margin": -1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.333,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0068,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0068,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.0994,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.632,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.9358
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.016554876461835046
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.015943673999542773
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 7,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.015904028239450838
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01579770167309165
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.015482868722313478
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.028705909740914637,
      "1": 0.043963329549083094,
      "2": 0.06229504340851287,
      "3": 0.08166953162028669,
      "4": 0.09906273005129254,
      "5": 0.11117424159533772,
      "6": 0.115436118136999,
      "7": 0.11089779418987658,
      "8": 0.09857068107377329,
      "9": 0.08106180355582282,
      "10": 0.06167773583081951,
      "11": 0.043419442045870386,
      "12": 0.028280280295517657,
      "13": 0.017042246250201187,
      "14": 0.009501969203178097,
      "15": 0.004901669849660955,
      "16": 0.0023394736028526835
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05544302104473786,
      "1": 0.08339519829268809,
      "2": 0.11195117495432373,
      "3": 0.13412499460470845,
      "4": 0.14341158321165826,
      "5": 0.13685232947926243,
      "6": 0.11655035738501873,
      "7": 0.08858669026079548,
      "8": 0.060092018709979406,
      "9": 0.036379653875476474,
      "10": 0.0196559384248341,
      "11": 0.009478125489816877,
      "12": 0.004078914266700017
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "MIA 4 - 6 CHC",
      "winner": "CHC"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "MIA 4 - 6 CHC",
      "winner": "CHC"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0872,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.7487,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "CHC",
      "model_winner": "CHC",
      "simulation_winner": "CHC",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "CHC",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "CHC",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 6
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.9358,
      "winner": "CHC",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 6,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CHC",
    "display_confidence": 0.53,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6934,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.9358,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.632,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0872,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.5,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 8,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 8,
        "range": 0
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-f4c3ec3952acc919",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-21T09:05:52.468019+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
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        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
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        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
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        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
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        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
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        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
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        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
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        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
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        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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    "changes": [
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        "old_value": 2.05,
        "new_value": 2.15,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-22T23:38:19.755513+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-22T23:40:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.650071,
      "confidence": 0.650071,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "total_runs": 10
      },
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    },
    {
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    },
    {
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      "home_runs": 6,
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    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
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      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260922_MIL@PHI

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickMIL

Published scoreMIL 7 - 4 PHI

Final confidence60.0%

Calibrationraw 81.3% → blended 68.4%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.6% · weight 50.0% · n=721

H2H base featurehome net -9.0 · absolute 9.0 · n=3

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -1.1486

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.8775638753360995-5.441149183485023	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	7-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	7-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	7-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	7-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	7-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.2,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.6,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.4,
    "away_win_probability": 0.6
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.2,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL wins 7-4 (Extra Innings - 10)",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "MIL 7 - 4 PHI",
    "confidence": 0.6,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.812507,
    "sample_size": 721,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5562,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.684354,
    "published_confidence": 0.6,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 3,
    "sample_weight": 0.0409,
    "home_net_margin": -9.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 9.0,
    "home_average_margin": -3.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0614,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0614,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.2244,
    "recent_quality_edge": -1.008,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -1.1486
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  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.014573059704334214
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
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        "probability": 0.01439655865740624
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      {
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        "raw_confidence": 0.6,
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        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.6807,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.984168,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 2.5,
        "calibration_sample_size": 721,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5562,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5548,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 1.1486,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 7,
            "home_runs": 4
          },
          "margin": -3,
          "probability_before": 0.319274,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.28317,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.984168,
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          "applied": false,
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          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.680726
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        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": false,
          "min_starter_games": 26,
          "shrink_factor": 1.0
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 3,
        "sample_weight": 0.0409,
        "home_net_margin": -9.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 9.0,
        "home_average_margin": -3.0,
        "home_run_delta": -0.0614,
        "away_run_delta": 0.0614,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": -4.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -6.0
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        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
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        "home": {
          "team": "PHI",
          "games": 156,
          "wins": 86,
          "losses": 70,
          "win_pct": 0.5512820512820513,
          "runs_scored": 697,
          "runs_allowed": 668,
          "run_differential": 29,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.1858974358974359,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "MIL",
          "games": 156,
          "wins": 98,
          "losses": 58,
          "win_pct": 0.6282051282051282,
          "runs_scored": 802,
          "runs_allowed": 600,
          "run_differential": 202,
          "run_differential_per_game": 1.294871794871795,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -1.109,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.0769,
        "quality_edge": -1.1486,
        "season_quality_edge": -1.2244,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -1.2244,
          "recent_quality_edge": -1.008,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -1.1486
        },
        "margin_adjustment": -0.4824,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": -0.4824,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": -1.1486,
          "season_quality_edge": -1.2244,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 6.306,
          "home_runs": 4.12,
          "home_win_probability": 0.3142
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      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
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          {
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "14": 0.018130960635817622,
          "15": 0.010571058020846607,
          "16": 0.005741784693321777,
          "17": 0.0029054014907296043,
          "18": 0.0013696077726724877
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        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.05,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.8775638753360995,
      "home_runs": 5.441149183485023,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260922_MIN@SF

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickMIN

Published scoreMIN 5 - 3 SF

Final confidence51.5%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 53.3%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.6% · weight 50.0% · n=721

H2H base featurehome net 3.0 · absolute 3.0 · n=1

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.1244

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.571395042631441-4.012320323667293	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIN",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.030844,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.515422,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.484578,
    "away_win_probability": 0.515422
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.030844,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIN wins 5-3 (Extra Innings - 12)",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "MIN 5 - 3 SF",
    "confidence": 0.5154224,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 721,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5562,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.53315,
    "published_confidence": 0.515422,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
    "home_net_margin": 3.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
    "home_average_margin": 3.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.025,
    "away_run_delta": -0.025,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.1656,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.048,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.1244
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.020135194409712124
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.019499377959703138
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.019264884419349954
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.018792848496616832
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01865655006845656
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05501378994339653,
      "1": 0.08277375958986602,
      "2": 0.1112144360187515,
      "3": 0.13343722828716215,
      "4": 0.14296845598147795,
      "5": 0.13678888438085227,
      "6": 0.11687153663434066,
      "7": 0.08916903504656427,
      "8": 0.06075286252311291,
      "9": 0.0369629640914412,
      "10": 0.020082334712323294,
      "11": 0.009743365132333955,
      "12": 0.00422134765837743
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.053040287839271005,
      "1": 0.07991178015129281,
      "2": 0.10780297291264077,
      "3": 0.13021639543229116,
      "4": 0.14083662211698436,
      "5": 0.13638937222788045,
      "6": 0.11826615020043019,
      "7": 0.09182382688577015,
      "8": 0.0638359486426912,
      "9": 0.039736557849543344,
      "10": 0.02214777845188687,
      "11": 0.011053125379188124,
      "12": 0.0049391819101295515
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "MIN 5 - 3 SF",
      "winner": "MIN"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "MIN 5 - 3 SF",
      "winner": "MIN"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0596,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.302,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "MIN",
      "model_winner": "MIN",
      "simulation_winner": "MIN",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 5,
        "published_winner": "MIN",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.8,
        "draw_majority_team": "MIN",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.1244,
      "winner": "MIN",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 3,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "MIN",
    "display_confidence": 0.5154,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6335,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5154,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.1244,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.048,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0596,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.8,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.2,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 1,
        "median": 6,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 10
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
      "config_hash": "sha256:53760a5ddffc6f180dee92a59d27889f1cdba857749a59d2378ee233c5952253",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-f4c3ec3952acc919",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-21T09:05:52.468019+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
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        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
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        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
        "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
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    },
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      "home_runs": 3,
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    },
    {
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      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
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  ]
}

20260922_NYM@TEX

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickTEX

Published scoreNYM 4 - 6 TEX

Final confidence60.1%

Calibrationraw 60.9% → blended 59.0%

Empirical signalhit rate 57.1% · weight 50.0% · n=634

H2H base featureNot available for this matchup · n=0

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.2143

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.504189328721297-4.654877300049959	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TEX",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.201838,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.600919,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.600919,
    "away_win_probability": 0.399081
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.201838,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "TEX wins 6-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "NYM 4 - 6 TEX",
    "confidence": 0.600919,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.609047,
    "sample_size": 634,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.571,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.590023,
    "published_confidence": 0.600919,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": false,
    "sample_size": 0,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.1122,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.404,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
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    "alignment": "aligned",
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            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
      "confidence_calibration": {
        "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.609047,
        "sample_size": 634,
        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.571,
        "empirical_weight": 0.5,
        "blended_confidence": 0.590023
      },
      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.590023,
        "final_confidence": 0.6033,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.6033,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.982055,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 1.3957,
        "calibration_sample_size": 634,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.571,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.569,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.2143,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 4,
            "home_runs": 6
          },
          "margin": 2,
          "probability_before": 0.603295,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.64888,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.982055,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": false,
          "magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
          "probability_after": 0.603295,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.603295
        },
        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": false,
          "min_starter_games": 31,
          "shrink_factor": 1.0
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": false,
        "sample_size": 0,
        "home_net_margin": 0.0,
        "home_average_margin": 0.0,
        "home_run_delta": 0.0,
        "away_run_delta": 0.0
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": false,
        "home": {
          "team": "TEX",
          "games": 156,
          "wins": 78,
          "losses": 78,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "runs_scored": 653,
          "runs_allowed": 687,
          "run_differential": -34,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.21794871794871795,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "NYM",
          "games": 156,
          "wins": 71,
          "losses": 85,
          "win_pct": 0.4551282051282051,
          "runs_scored": 668,
          "runs_allowed": 709,
          "run_differential": -41,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.26282051282051283,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.0449,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0449,
        "quality_edge": 0.2143,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.1122,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 0.1122,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.404,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.2143
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 6,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.0172915378681581
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.017093568099386863
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          {
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          },
          {
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            "away_runs": 4,
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.030816376660394412,
          "1": 0.04806489394915518,
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          "3": 0.09017652699242475,
          "4": 0.10847074104311578,
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          "6": 0.12103849041799201,
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          "8": 0.09552080484757745,
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          "10": 0.053313357129882125,
          "11": 0.03497771246739441,
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          "13": 0.011611139309911785,
          "14": 0.005874932695688998,
          "15": 0.00272597489134387,
          "16": 0.0011599297909163392
        },
        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.05098946903235494,
          "1": 0.0784030696606962,
          "2": 0.10744565663566139,
          "3": 0.1312344582082462,
          "4": 0.1428598275510859,
          "5": 0.13860394166299314,
          "6": 0.11985171728781815,
          "7": 0.09236685613241952,
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          "9": 0.038839141810637946,
          "10": 0.02119098712996622,
          "11": 0.010304714667366878,
          "12": 0.00446605404855508
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.05,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.504189328721297,
      "home_runs": 4.654877300049959,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260922_SD@LAD

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickLAD

Published scoreSD 4 - 6 LAD

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 53.5%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.0% · weight 50.0% · n=384

H2H base featurehome net 8.0 · absolute 8.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.593

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.75378154488053-5.281393630446507	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.53,
    "away_win_probability": 0.47
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD wins 6-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "SD 4 - 6 LAD",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 384,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5599,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.535,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 8.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 8.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.6,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0462,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0462,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.0609,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.276,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.593
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.018526113511337337
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01844343441079805
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.018245728185989026
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01816430040059957
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.016906251202667363
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04839716585087043,
      "1": 0.07314040621783151,
      "2": 0.09958061757233241,
      "3": 0.12214403755870143,
      "4": 0.13497388158224374,
      "5": 0.13437151459800353,
      "6": 0.1205159966244335,
      "7": 0.09737830032134678,
      "8": 0.07088587303120207,
      "9": 0.04648760842535588,
      "10": 0.02746595633600156,
      "11": 0.014619491110093271,
      "12": 0.007010512935224367,
      "13": 0.0030286378363596138
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05016788973826385,
      "1": 0.07572568406498245,
      "2": 0.1027307489173719,
      "3": 0.1252557235850542,
      "4": 0.13725702553829872,
      "5": 0.1351796953018006,
      "6": 0.11965427515758538,
      "7": 0.09518858134499898,
      "8": 0.06805834208498521,
      "9": 0.04373385427286586,
      "10": 0.025257712679724494,
      "11": 0.013110225469352164,
      "12": 0.00611598173706504,
      "13": 0.0025642601076510244
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "SD 4 - 6 LAD",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "SD 4 - 6 LAD",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0408,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.066,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "model_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 5,
        "published_winner": "LAD",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "LAD",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 6
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.593,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 6,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "LAD",
    "display_confidence": 0.53,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6058,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.593,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.276,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0408,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.2,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.2,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.4,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 4,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 12,
        "range": 8
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
      "config_hash": "sha256:53760a5ddffc6f180dee92a59d27889f1cdba857749a59d2378ee233c5952253",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-f4c3ec3952acc919",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-21T09:05:52.468019+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
        "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
        "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
        "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
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      "home_runs": 6,
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    },
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    },
    {
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      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
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    }
  ]
}

20260922_STL@PIT

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickPIT

Published scoreSTL 4 - 5 PIT

Final confidence53.9%

Calibrationraw 56.4% → blended 56.2%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.1% · weight 50.0% · n=663

H2H base featurehome net 13.0 · absolute 13.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.3334

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.459494787448133-5.403853993839366	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "PIT",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.077324,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.538662,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.538662,
    "away_win_probability": 0.461338
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.077324,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "PIT wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "STL 4 - 5 PIT",
    "confidence": 0.5386616975,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5636,
    "sample_size": 663,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5611,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.56235,
    "published_confidence": 0.538662,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
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            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
            "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
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            "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
            "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
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      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
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        "raw_confidence": 0.5636,
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      "confidence_governor": {
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        "calibration_sample_size": 663,
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        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5595,
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          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
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        "starter_experience": {
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
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        "home_net_margin": 13.0,
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        "evidence": [
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            "home_margin": 1.0
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            "home_margin": 4.0
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        "away": {
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          "wins": 76,
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.3333,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0192,
        "quality_edge": 0.3334,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.3622,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
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          "recent_quality_edge": 0.28,
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          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
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        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
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    "validity": {
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      "rng_isolated": true,
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      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
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  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
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      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
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    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
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      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
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      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260922_TB@NYY

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickNYY

Published scoreTB 3 - 4 NYY

Final confidence53.5%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 54.2%

Empirical signalhit rate 57.4% · weight 50.0% · n=418

H2H base featurehome net 9.0 · absolute 9.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.0823

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.8083426116269434-5.205999797915791	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.069836,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.534918,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.534918,
    "away_win_probability": 0.465082
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.069836,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY wins 4-3 (Extra Innings - 10)",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "TB 3 - 4 NYY",
    "confidence": 0.5349177024999999,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 418,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5742,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.54215,
    "published_confidence": 0.534918,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 9.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 9.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.8,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0519,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0519,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.2903,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.304,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.0823
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.023775234282643852
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02367872370940118
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.023560423806430014
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.023464785211227662
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.021061008414578045
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06754021958834518,
      "1": 0.1007549116457567,
      "2": 0.1319418697833856,
      "3": 0.15167419255236253,
      "4": 0.1530570711371964,
      "5": 0.13558378541339447,
      "6": 0.1054325622477747,
      "7": 0.07197048287670531,
      "8": 0.04312674904601812,
      "9": 0.02268567345106441,
      "10": 0.010475367804362895,
      "11": 0.004246191086855278,
      "12": 0.0015109233667785398
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07034955035165352,
      "1": 0.10474893686872565,
      "2": 0.136401658457503,
      "3": 0.1553357457188786,
      "4": 0.15470519286349196,
      "5": 0.1347473104393432,
      "6": 0.10264009569004623,
      "7": 0.06837474506458452,
      "8": 0.03983420195671947,
      "9": 0.020295429696302256,
      "10": 0.009043199450248899,
      "11": 0.003523933442502917
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "TB 3 - 4 NYY",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "TB 3 - 4 NYY",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0798,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.234,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "model_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 4,
        "published_winner": "NYY",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.75,
        "draw_majority_team": "NYY",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0823,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "NYY",
    "display_confidence": 0.5349,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5591,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5349,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0823,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.304,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0798,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.75,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.25,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 7
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
      "config_hash": "sha256:53760a5ddffc6f180dee92a59d27889f1cdba857749a59d2378ee233c5952253",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-f4c3ec3952acc919",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-21T09:05:52.468019+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
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        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
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    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
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    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
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      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260922_TB@NYY_2

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickNYY

Published scoreTB 4 - 5 NYY

Final confidence52.1%

Calibrationraw 50.4% → blended 53.0%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.5% · weight 50.0% · n=762

H2H base featurehome net 9.0 · absolute 9.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.0823

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.3508782112478634-4.767573450422007	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.04127,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.520635,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.520635,
    "away_win_probability": 0.479365
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.04127,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
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            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
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            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
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            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
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            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
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        }
      }
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    "diagnostics": {
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        "raw_confidence": 0.504257,
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          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
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        "starter_experience": {
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          {
            "home_margin": 8.0
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            "home_margin": -3.0
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            "home_margin": 4.0
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        "home": {
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          "win_pct": 0.5741935483870968,
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          "run_differential_per_game": 0.8838709677419355,
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        "away": {
          "team": "TB",
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.3484,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.0387,
        "quality_edge": 0.0823,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.2903,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
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          "recent_quality_edge": -0.304,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
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          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "conflict",
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        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
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      "score_distribution": {
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        "home_distribution": {
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        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
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      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260922_TOR@BAL

Official result pending · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Official result pending

PickBAL

Published scoreTOR 4 - 5 BAL

Final confidence50.5%

Calibrationraw 46.0% → blended 50.0%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.0% · weight 50.0% · n=537

H2H base featurehome net -9.0 · absolute 9.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.077

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.506258896656094-4.482459105338878	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "BAL",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.01,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.505,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.505,
    "away_win_probability": 0.495
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.01,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "BAL wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "TOR 4 - 5 BAL",
    "confidence": 0.505,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.4601,
    "sample_size": 537,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.54,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.50005,
    "published_confidence": 0.505,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -9.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 9.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.8,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0519,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0519,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.0732,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.084,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.077
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.019711135626987467
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01924440871194041
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.019020526557902075
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.018570152117233833
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.01827554822520005
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.051715975310095946,
      "1": 0.07798689904068565,
      "2": 0.10549152798020964,
      "3": 0.12800074930416933,
      "4": 0.13931774596445773,
      "5": 0.13601893340409593,
      "6": 0.11912181142802214,
      "7": 0.09357982120272393,
      "8": 0.06594352089316804,
      "9": 0.04168319981470023,
      "10": 0.02363463867400586,
      "11": 0.012020869500518176,
      "12": 0.005484307483147256
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05362387796355451,
      "1": 0.08075891581216933,
      "2": 0.10881591009391336,
      "3": 0.13117889683531375,
      "4": 0.14148330846535592,
      "5": 0.13652622949236148,
      "6": 0.11786819762214445,
      "7": 0.09104305992191383,
      "8": 0.06291681157408341,
      "9": 0.03890059309204045,
      "10": 0.021518668570036772,
      "11": 0.010649868058703613,
      "12": 0.0047156624984091055
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "TOR 4 - 5 BAL",
      "winner": "BAL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "TOR 4 - 5 BAL",
      "winner": "BAL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0618,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.014,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "BAL",
      "model_winner": "BAL",
      "simulation_winner": "BAL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "BAL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "BAL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.077,
      "winner": "BAL",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "BAL",
    "display_confidence": 0.505,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6148,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.505,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.077,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.084,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0618,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.5,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 7,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 7,
        "range": 0
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
      "config_hash": "sha256:53760a5ddffc6f180dee92a59d27889f1cdba857749a59d2378ee233c5952253",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-f4c3ec3952acc919",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-21T09:05:52.468019+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
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        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
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        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
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        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
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    },
    {
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    },
    {
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    },
    {
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      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
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      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260922_WAS@DET

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickDET

Published scoreWAS 3 - 4 DET

Final confidence57.1%

Calibrationraw 61.6% → blended 59.2%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.7% · weight 50.0% · n=393

H2H base featurehome net 7.0 · absolute 7.0 · n=1

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.3898

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.5430461094700796-4.502578815622701	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
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  "published_prediction": {
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    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
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    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.570934,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.570934,
    "away_win_probability": 0.429066
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  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.141868,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "DET wins 4-3 (Extra Innings - 10)",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
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    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "WAS 3 - 4 DET",
    "confidence": 0.5709342,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.616347,
    "sample_size": 393,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5674,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.591873,
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    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
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    "absolute_net_margin": 7.0,
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    "home_run_delta": 0.0583,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0583,
    "evidence": [
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  "recent_form_quality": {
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    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
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  "score_distribution": {
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    "home_distribution": {
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      "3": 0.17443908923890167,
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      "6": 0.08131661118718718,
      "7": 0.04579400181298885,
      "8": 0.02197843046858572,
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    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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  "simulation_reconciliation": {
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      "home_runs": 4,
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      "winner": "DET"
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    "final_simulation_score": {
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      "winner": "DET"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
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      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.618,
      "winner_direction": "home",
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    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
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    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
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      "simulation_winner": "DET",
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      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
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        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
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      "simulation_score": {
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    "final_margin_quality_review": {
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      "score_reviewed": {
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        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
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      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
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  },
  "decision_profile": {
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    "display_confidence": 0.5709,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5593,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5709,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
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      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.268,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0174,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.25,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 4,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 6
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    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
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            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
            "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
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            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
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            "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
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            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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    },
    "diagnostics": {
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        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.616347,
        "sample_size": 393,
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          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
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          "margin": 1,
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        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": false,
          "min_starter_games": 16,
          "shrink_factor": 1.0
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
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      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
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        "home": {
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          "losses": 83,
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          "runs_allowed": 631,
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          "run_differential_per_game": 0.47770700636942676,
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        "away": {
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.4459,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0064,
        "quality_edge": 0.3898,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.4554,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
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          "recent_quality_edge": 0.268,
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          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.3898
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        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
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      },
      "score_distribution": {
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        "home_distribution": {
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        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.5430461094700796,
      "home_runs": 4.502578815622701,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260923_ARI@COL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickARI

Published scoreARI 8 - 6 COL

Final confidence56.0%

Calibrationraw 72.2% → blended 64.7%

Empirical signalhit rate 57.2% · weight 50.0% · n=404

H2H base featurehome net -19.0 · absolute 19.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -1.1737

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.409622421285718-5.115400944938096	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	8-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	8-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	8-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	8-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	8-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "ARI",
    "away_runs": 8,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": -0.12,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.44,
    "away_win_probability": 0.56
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.12,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "ARI wins 8-6",
    "away_runs": 8,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 8,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "ARI 8 - 6 COL",
    "confidence": 0.56,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.722452,
    "sample_size": 404,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5718,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.647126,
    "published_confidence": 0.56,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -19.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 19.0,
    "home_average_margin": -3.8,
    "home_run_delta": -0.1096,
    "away_run_delta": 0.1096,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -9.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -8.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.4331,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.692,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -1.1737
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 8,
        "probability": 0.011876227288395186
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.01181141618102686
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 8,
        "probability": 0.011669517029546652
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.011605833984184471
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 9,
        "probability": 0.011231529654019846
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03133078058064224,
      "1": 0.047895916008792484,
      "2": 0.06749714789133111,
      "3": 0.08768635762751262,
      "4": 0.10501184984535128,
      "5": 0.11593224804297034,
      "6": 0.11798583645979839,
      "7": 0.11069172724362424,
      "8": 0.0957326592215859,
      "9": 0.07632463765434222,
      "10": 0.056095632556326505,
      "11": 0.03800607474519219,
      "12": 0.0237375917623808,
      "13": 0.013667213070291367,
      "14": 0.007254090067968854,
      "15": 0.00354932356115918,
      "16": 0.0016009136607305395
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.01732148090983171,
      "1": 0.0267469578074641,
      "2": 0.03884611978513611,
      "3": 0.0530645855626612,
      "4": 0.06817824029166457,
      "5": 0.08238927439435863,
      "6": 0.09364389032151396,
      "7": 0.10010876335187396,
      "8": 0.10065807595848,
      "9": 0.09519388081676051,
      "10": 0.084674632243266,
      "11": 0.07084047837104991,
      "12": 0.055743409782368136,
      "13": 0.041256222003809594,
      "14": 0.028718996415014884,
      "15": 0.018803250973204073,
      "16": 0.011579251994234223,
      "17": 0.0067067473655147425,
      "18": 0.00365365274803657,
      "19": 0.0018720889037568476
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "ARI 8 - 6 COL",
      "winner": "ARI"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "ARI 8 - 6 COL",
      "winner": "ARI"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0699,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.762,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "ARI",
      "model_winner": "ARI",
      "simulation_winner": "ARI",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 5,
        "published_winner": "ARI",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.8,
        "draw_majority_team": "ARI",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 8,
        "home_runs": 6
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 8,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.1737,
      "winner": "ARI",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 8,
        "home_runs": 6,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "ARI",
    "display_confidence": 0.56,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.7065,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.1737,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.692,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0699,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.8,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.2,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.2,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.2,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 4,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 13,
        "range": 9
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
      "config_hash": "sha256:53760a5ddffc6f180dee92a59d27889f1cdba857749a59d2378ee233c5952253",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-f4c3ec3952acc919",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-21T09:05:52.468019+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
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      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260923_CHW@KC

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickCHW

Published scoreCHW 7 - 5 KC

Final confidence56.0%

Calibrationraw 76.5% → blended 66.8%

Empirical signalhit rate 57.1% · weight 50.0% · n=126

H2H base featurehome net -28.0 · absolute 28.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.9908

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.3337477189275315-3.2415545520718902	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-3	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	6-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	7-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	7-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	7-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	7-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHW",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": -0.12,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.44,
    "away_win_probability": 0.56
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.12,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHW wins 7-5",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "CHW 7 - 5 KC",
    "confidence": 0.56,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.764902,
    "sample_size": 126,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5714,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.668151,
    "published_confidence": 0.56,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -28.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 28.0,
    "home_average_margin": -5.6,
    "home_run_delta": -0.1615,
    "away_run_delta": 0.1615,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -21.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.0892,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.808,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.9908
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.014623176521049525
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.014541144216070228
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.014424947272671566
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.014344026983411657
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.013678310791373428
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.045350592442246505,
      "1": 0.06867439606633506,
      "2": 0.09406664049656167,
      "3": 0.11654813274634858,
      "4": 0.1306182638967934,
      "5": 0.13241323477517913,
      "6": 0.12141931668994559,
      "7": 0.10071011102584146,
      "8": 0.07555918521019622,
      "9": 0.05127791503994807,
      "10": 0.031477653605286836,
      "11": 0.017478463275965073,
      "12": 0.008778757286678622,
      "13": 0.003988335998930155,
      "14": 0.0016390014437435974
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.02496139514822111,
      "1": 0.038330112224489093,
      "2": 0.05474682405637539,
      "3": 0.0727319737847022,
      "4": 0.08987510707924219,
      "5": 0.10330017852518643,
      "6": 0.11043591334263393,
      "7": 0.10981639592718391,
      "8": 0.10157144935809512,
      "9": 0.08738234930386402,
      "10": 0.06992353688302537,
      "11": 0.0520439993459087,
      "12": 0.036030106156880744,
      "13": 0.023201070546832396,
      "14": 0.013896265769510351,
      "15": 0.007741690453538015,
      "16": 0.004011632094310968
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CHW 7 - 5 KC",
      "winner": "CHW"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CHW 7 - 5 KC",
      "winner": "CHW"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.039,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.018,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "CHW",
      "model_winner": "CHW",
      "simulation_winner": "CHW",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "CHW",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "CHW",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 7,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 7,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.9908,
      "winner": "CHW",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 7,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CHW",
    "display_confidence": 0.56,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6722,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.9908,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.808,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.039,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.6667,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.1667,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 6
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-f4c3ec3952acc919",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-21T09:05:52.468019+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
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        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
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        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
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        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
        "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
      "config_id": "candidate-f4c3ec3952acc919",
      "config_hash": "sha256:9ca63931a023e9b6f5e0ed6f872bef54d37bd4e9dc951e5e10b28553b15e3582",
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      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:3d9930771042cec882c8a869e835917939fd7c764fe71a6d765dc4a636b90c8d"
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    "changes": [
      {
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        "old_value": 2.05,
        "new_value": 2.15,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-23T22:40:32.515098+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-23T23:40:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.387014,
      "confidence": 0.612986,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "total_runs": 11
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
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            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
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            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
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            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
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            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
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            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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        }
      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.385507,
      "confidence": 0.614493,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "total_runs": 11
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "config_id": "candidate-f4c3ec3952acc919",
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          "parent_config_id": "candidate-57e651c7f36832cf",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-18T09:05:32.063728+00:00",
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            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
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            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
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            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
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        },
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        "adjusted_score": {
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  },
  "score_evolution": [
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      "away_runs": 5.3337477189275315,
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      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
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      "home_runs": 3,
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    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260923_CIN@ATL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickATL

Published scoreCIN 5 - 6 ATL

Final confidence56.0%

Calibrationraw 75.9% → blended 65.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.4% · weight 50.0% · n=121

H2H base featurehome net 2.0 · absolute 2.0 · n=4

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 1.4455

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.4523480439504493-6.194669647770747	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	3-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "ATL",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.12,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.56,
    "away_win_probability": 0.44
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.12,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "ATL wins 6-5",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "CIN 5 - 6 ATL",
    "confidence": 0.56,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.75887,
    "sample_size": 121,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5537,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.656285,
    "published_confidence": 0.56,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": 2.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.5,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0125,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0125,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.9331,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.54,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 1.4455
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.014215125159353467
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 7,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.014166902609712172
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.0136843743479561
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 7,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.013637952285968825
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.013429520238450196
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.02472316477656004,
      "1": 0.037970796844360055,
      "2": 0.05426149908013398,
      "3": 0.07214899620474399,
      "4": 0.08926171512859812,
      "5": 0.10275349208436824,
      "6": 0.11005870085582817,
      "7": 0.10968534422998204,
      "8": 0.10171131092392653,
      "9": 0.0877579217489532,
      "10": 0.07045305611915645,
      "11": 0.05262714039105129,
      "12": 0.036577678362493676,
      "13": 0.02365478090534481,
      "14": 0.014233711266652916,
      "15": 0.007969183049951705,
      "16": 0.004151508027894962
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04133693599231088,
      "1": 0.0627664765832162,
      "2": 0.08667648405047348,
      "3": 0.10885763404287177,
      "4": 0.12433705142387608,
      "5": 0.12915948533659893,
      "6": 0.12202143159987186,
      "7": 0.10484071995972806,
      "8": 0.0819233950309519,
      "9": 0.058219699231453745,
      "10": 0.037628425093683034,
      "11": 0.022118017346524823,
      "12": 0.011823890946036423,
      "13": 0.005748555188812926,
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "CIN 5 - 6 ATL",
      "winner": "ATL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "CIN 5 - 6 ATL",
      "winner": "ATL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0723,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.54,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "ATL",
      "model_winner": "ATL",
      "simulation_winner": "ATL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 5,
        "published_winner": "ATL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.4,
        "draw_majority_team": "CIN",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6
      },
      "simulation_score": {
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        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.4455,
      "winner": "ATL",
      "score_reviewed": {
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        "home_runs": 6,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
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          {
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
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          "14": 0.01313848223137537,
          "15": 0.007150770366903715,
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "6": 0.12406616487250294,
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          "12": 0.010728279065041934,
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          "14": 0.002139655783862247
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.05,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.4523480439504493,
      "home_runs": 6.194669647770747,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260923_CLE@BOS

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickCLE

Published scoreCLE 5 - 4 BOS

Final confidence50.5%

Calibrationraw 55.6% → blended 54.9%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.3% · weight 50.0% · n=505

H2H base featurehome net 11.0 · absolute 11.0 · n=4

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.0583

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.912807674712477-5.001384880573751	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.010518,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.505259,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.494741,
    "away_win_probability": 0.505259
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.010518,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 10)",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "CLE 5 - 4 BOS",
    "confidence": 0.5052590775,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.556082,
    "sample_size": 505,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5426,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.549341,
    "published_confidence": 0.505259,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": 11.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 11.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.75,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0687,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0687,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.5032,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.768,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.0583
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  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01863432237596184
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.018517030991005178
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.018316966586225936
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      {
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        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01820167275714231
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      {
        "home_runs": 3,
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        "probability": 0.017030505865193023
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.050484642274007493,
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      "4": 0.13765124859936692,
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      "6": 0.11948515316183642,
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      "11": 0.012855575784166556,
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      "13": 0.0024887416390399634
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    "away_distribution": {
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      "3": 0.12268119365350502,
      "4": 0.1353734351527527,
      "5": 0.1345213441899018,
      "6": 0.12037914086599143,
      "7": 0.0970093451577408,
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      "12": 0.0068495119102241955,
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
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    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "CLE 5 - 4 BOS",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "CLE 5 - 4 BOS",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0603,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.768,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
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      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "model_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "CLE",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333,
        "draw_majority_team": "BOS",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
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        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
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        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
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      "pre_margin": 1,
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      "score_reviewed": {
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        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
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  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CLE",
    "display_confidence": 0.5053,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5237,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5053,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.0583,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.768,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0603,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.3333,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3333,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.1667,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 8
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    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
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    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
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    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-23T22:36:58.884308+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-23T23:10:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.492721,
      "confidence": 0.507279,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
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      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
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        "away": {
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  },
  "score_evolution": [
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      "away_runs": 3.912807674712477,
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      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 4,
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      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
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      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260923_HOU@SEA

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickSEA

Published scoreHOU 4 - 5 SEA

Final confidence51.5%

Calibrationraw 54.4% → blended 54.8%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.2% · weight 50.0% · n=777

H2H base featurehome net 1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.083

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.7163892507255993-4.440718053507966	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "SEA",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.030596,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.515298,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.515298,
    "away_win_probability": 0.484702
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.030596,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "SEA wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 12)",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "HOU 4 - 5 SEA",
    "confidence": 0.5152982150000001,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.543922,
    "sample_size": 777,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5521,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.548011,
    "published_confidence": 0.515298,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.2,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0058,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0058,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.1178,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.456,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.083
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.0210384582645494
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.020000968130966065
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.019934624309460386
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.019742111532827122
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.0197336691337355
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05605565356775576,
      "1": 0.08428152267928186,
      "2": 0.1129994590778465,
      "3": 0.13509876981990634,
      "4": 0.14403149313926072,
      "5": 0.1369287268063752,
      "6": 0.11608142095396409,
      "7": 0.08775298532001992,
      "8": 0.05915509044801325,
      "9": 0.035559314822503754,
      "10": 0.019061000122020107,
      "11": 0.009111062434835511,
      "12": 0.0038835008082169806
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05818031056104009,
      "1": 0.08734949248768645,
      "2": 0.11660537548076987,
      "3": 0.13840462162109268,
      "4": 0.14606845909878752,
      "5": 0.1370680196569158,
      "6": 0.11436408598801057,
      "7": 0.08484319671481694,
      "8": 0.05596522039765284,
      "9": 0.0328241318307207,
      "10": 0.0171175700137053,
      "11": 0.007937154103542786,
      "12": 0.003272362045258534
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "HOU 4 - 5 SEA",
      "winner": "SEA"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "HOU 4 - 5 SEA",
      "winner": "SEA"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0002,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.526,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "SEA",
      "model_winner": "SEA",
      "simulation_winner": "SEA",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 5,
        "published_winner": "SEA",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.4,
        "draw_majority_team": "HOU",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
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        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
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    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
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      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
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      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
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    "internal_signal_score": 0.515,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
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    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
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        "median": 6,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 6
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    },
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          "run_differential": -52,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.33121019108280253,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.0701,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.0318,
        "quality_edge": 0.083,
        "season_quality_edge": -0.1178,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.1178,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.456,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "conflict",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.083
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.02184003492713372
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 4,
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          {
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            "away_runs": 3,
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          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.020430814785058756
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 4,
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.054543867798177076,
          "1": 0.08365627838442313,
          "2": 0.11377698825728842,
          "3": 0.13721879817641358,
          "4": 0.14674931183068596,
          "5": 0.13916877990125046,
          "6": 0.11703367714656218,
          "7": 0.08727365525497702,
          "8": 0.057711022006736785,
          "9": 0.033840568416834686,
          "10": 0.017596237597730838,
          "11": 0.00811344450849603,
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        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.05667549983766224,
          "1": 0.08679379991053862,
          "2": 0.11750782825212866,
          "3": 0.14064673366805838,
          "4": 0.1488254674225114,
          "5": 0.13922255941227915,
          "6": 0.11514013258080993,
          "7": 0.08418381260462038,
          "8": 0.054414571017951954,
          "9": 0.03109471513054954,
          "10": 0.015708789090462652,
          "11": 0.007015903207605266,
          "12": 0.002770187864821789
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.05,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.7163892507255993,
      "home_runs": 4.440718053507966,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260923_LAA@OAK

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickLAA

Published scoreLAA 5 - 4 OAK

Final confidence54.0%

Calibrationraw 70.1% → blended 62.8%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.4% · weight 50.0% · n=680

H2H base featurehome net 0.0 · absolute 0.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.6489

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.347463069729739-4.18628607631783	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAA",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.08,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.54,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.46,
    "away_win_probability": 0.54
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.08,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAA wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "LAA 5 - 4 OAK",
    "confidence": 0.54,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.700811,
    "sample_size": 680,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5544,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.627606,
    "published_confidence": 0.54,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.8217,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.328,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.6489
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01700572833385477
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.016841805982570388
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.016561786406643044
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.016402143319563852
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.015751074137893332
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05212164669980816,
      "1": 0.07857691091128938,
      "2": 0.10620147645415404,
      "3": 0.1286841141897606,
      "4": 0.13979064219035972,
      "5": 0.13614134673639158,
      "6": 0.11886685291004387,
      "7": 0.09304440575305854,
      "8": 0.06529479282353559,
      "9": 0.04107954358336498,
      "10": 0.02317028901159757,
      "11": 0.011716450767195345,
      "12": 0.005311527969440456
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    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.034976427456724205,
      "1": 0.05333681302932599,
      "2": 0.07460828177228174,
      "3": 0.0957316129171943,
      "4": 0.11267616981431654,
      "5": 0.12165140718573454,
      "6": 0.12047877968566795,
      "7": 0.10944913780763439,
      "8": 0.09120580718099769,
      "9": 0.06971737063742828,
      "10": 0.04888412765137967,
      "11": 0.03144148872173178,
      "12": 0.018550118775642045,
      "13": 0.01003918945129335,
      "14": 0.004983781193459592,
      "15": 0.002269486719187929
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "LAA 5 - 4 OAK",
      "winner": "LAA"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "LAA 5 - 4 OAK",
      "winner": "LAA"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0587,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.398,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "LAA",
      "model_winner": "LAA",
      "simulation_winner": "LAA",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "LAA",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "LAA",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6489,
      "winner": "LAA",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "LAA",
    "display_confidence": 0.54,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6103,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.54,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6489,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.328,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0587,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 7,
        "range": 4
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-f4c3ec3952acc919",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-21T09:05:52.468019+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
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        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
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        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
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        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
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        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
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        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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      "config_hash": "sha256:9ca63931a023e9b6f5e0ed6f872bef54d37bd4e9dc951e5e10b28553b15e3582",
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    "changes": [
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        "old_value": 2.05,
        "new_value": 2.15,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-24T01:36:30.379271+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-24T01:40:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.421923,
      "confidence": 0.578077,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "total_runs": 10
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
          "config_hash": "sha256:53760a5ddffc6f180dee92a59d27889f1cdba857749a59d2378ee233c5952253",
          "parent_config_id": "candidate-f4c3ec3952acc919",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-21T09:05:52.468019+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
            "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
            "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
            "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
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            "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
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            "confidence.floor": 0.505,
            "score.variance_multiplier": 2.15,
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    {
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    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
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    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260923_MIA@CHC

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickCHC

Published scoreMIA 5 - 6 CHC

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 59.8% → blended 58.3%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.8% · weight 50.0% · n=644

H2H base featurehome net -7.0 · absolute 7.0 · n=4

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.7969

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.555168633397771-5.228350511286496	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHC",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.53,
    "away_win_probability": 0.47
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHC wins 6-5",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "MIA 5 - 6 CHC",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.597738,
    "sample_size": 644,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5683,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.583019,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": -7.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 7.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.75,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0437,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0437,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
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    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.0064,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.408,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
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    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.7969
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  "score_distribution": {
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        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.015668183138782633
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        "probability": 0.015544453927007127
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    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0326023035717915,
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      "14": 0.006358232055052323,
      "15": 0.003033001084392283,
      "16": 0.0013313982495555309
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    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04436270415749494,
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    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
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    "margin_widening_capped": false,
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          "probability_after": 0.569269,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.569269
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        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": false,
          "min_starter_games": 22,
          "shrink_factor": 1.0
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 4,
        "sample_weight": 0.05,
        "home_net_margin": -7.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 7.0,
        "home_average_margin": -1.75,
        "home_run_delta": -0.0437,
        "away_run_delta": 0.0437,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": -6.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -7.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
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          {
            "home_margin": 5.0
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        "adaptive_parameters": {
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
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        "home": {
          "team": "CHC",
          "games": 157,
          "wins": 87,
          "losses": 70,
          "win_pct": 0.554140127388535,
          "runs_scored": 837,
          "runs_allowed": 691,
          "run_differential": 146,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.9299363057324841,
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        },
        "away": {
          "team": "MIA",
          "games": 157,
          "wins": 77,
          "losses": 80,
          "win_pct": 0.49044585987261147,
          "runs_scored": 700,
          "runs_allowed": 697,
          "run_differential": 3,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.01910828025477707,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.9108,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0637,
        "quality_edge": 0.7969,
        "season_quality_edge": 1.0064,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 1.0064,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.408,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.7969
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.3347,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": 0.3347,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": 0.7969,
          "season_quality_edge": 1.0064,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 3.753,
          "home_runs": 6.092,
          "home_win_probability": 0.6988
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
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        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.555168633397771,
      "home_runs": 5.228350511286496,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260923_MIL@PHI

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickMIL

Published scoreMIL 5 - 3 PHI

Final confidence56.0%

Calibrationraw 74.2% → blended 65.4%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.6% · weight 50.0% · n=348

H2H base featurehome net -7.0 · absolute 7.0 · n=4

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -1.0088

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.950803699101863-3.613581452426851	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.12,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.44,
    "away_win_probability": 0.56
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.12,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL wins 5-3",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "MIL 5 - 3 PHI",
    "confidence": 0.56,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.741824,
    "sample_size": 348,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5661,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.653962,
    "published_confidence": 0.56,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": -7.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 7.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.75,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0437,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0437,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.1815,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.688,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -1.0088
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02145358825107652
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.02064210926409364
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02034577794555124
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.020086384393521884
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.019688546431610228
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08304722532396437,
      "1": 0.12256891200127605,
      "2": 0.15543580853282224,
      "3": 0.16937034165114898,
      "4": 0.15857663284352433,
      "5": 0.12757235178101256,
      "6": 0.0881839347341189,
      "7": 0.05237667508691204,
      "8": 0.026730182237462645,
      "9": 0.011721453124321244,
      "10": 0.004416482683436474
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03888832867370493,
      "1": 0.0591467597186417,
      "2": 0.08208638431603393,
      "3": 0.10395366043100167,
      "4": 0.12012597806207011,
      "5": 0.126666735403205,
      "6": 0.12187558378201813,
      "7": 0.10700383202138852,
      "8": 0.08572558222349763,
      "9": 0.06266860773972506,
      "10": 0.0418040289649883,
      "11": 0.0254457188342285,
      "12": 0.014133177023966388,
      "13": 0.007162973820508568,
      "14": 0.0033126489850216936
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "MIL 5 - 3 PHI",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "MIL 5 - 3 PHI",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0509,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.688,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "model_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "MIL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
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        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.0088,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 3,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "MIL",
    "display_confidence": 0.56,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6471,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.0088,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.688,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0509,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.5,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 7,
        "median": 11,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 4
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-f4c3ec3952acc919",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-21T09:05:52.468019+00:00",
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        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
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        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
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        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
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        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
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        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
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    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
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    },
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    {
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    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
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      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
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      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260923_MIN@SF

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickMIN

Published scoreMIN 4 - 3 SF

Final confidence51.1%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 53.3%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.6% · weight 50.0% · n=741

H2H base featurehome net 2.0 · absolute 2.0 · n=2

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.1368

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.908464899117625-4.0596856706026765	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIN",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.02222,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.51111,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.48889,
    "away_win_probability": 0.51111
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.02222,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIN wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "MIN 4 - 3 SF",
    "confidence": 0.5111098825,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 741,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.556,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.53305,
    "published_confidence": 0.51111,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 2,
    "sample_weight": 0.03,
    "home_net_margin": 2.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.015,
    "away_run_delta": -0.015,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.1867,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.044,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
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        "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
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      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.53305,
        "final_confidence": 0.5272,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5272,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.984585,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 0.1,
        "calibration_sample_size": 741,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.556,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5547,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.1368,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 4,
            "home_runs": 3
          },
          "margin": -1,
          "probability_before": 0.472786,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.424204,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.984585,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": false,
          "magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
          "probability_after": 0.472786,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.527214
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        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": true,
          "min_starter_games": 4,
          "per_starter_career_games": {
            "702885": 4,
            "687570": 23
          },
          "shrink_factor": 0.5667,
          "probability_before": 0.472786,
          "probability_after": 0.484579,
          "reason": "inexperienced starter (debut/thin history): confidence shrunk toward 0.5 by career-games factor; winner unchanged"
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 2,
        "sample_weight": 0.03,
        "home_net_margin": 2.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
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          {
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          {
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        "adaptive_parameters": {
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": false,
        "home": {
          "team": "SF",
          "games": 158,
          "wins": 65,
          "losses": 93,
          "win_pct": 0.41139240506329117,
          "runs_scored": 663,
          "runs_allowed": 745,
          "run_differential": -82,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.5189873417721519,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "MIN",
          "games": 158,
          "wins": 74,
          "losses": 84,
          "win_pct": 0.46835443037974683,
          "runs_scored": 717,
          "runs_allowed": 783,
          "run_differential": -66,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.4177215189873418,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.1013,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.057,
        "quality_edge": -0.1368,
        "season_quality_edge": -0.1867,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
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          "recent_quality_edge": -0.044,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
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        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
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        "home_distribution": {
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        "variance_multiplier": 2.05,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.908464899117625,
      "home_runs": 4.0596856706026765,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260923_NYM@TEX

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickNYM

Published scoreNYM 6 - 3 TEX

Final confidence59.5%

Calibrationraw 64.5% → blended 60.1%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.6% · weight 50.0% · n=284

H2H base featurehome net -3.0 · absolute 3.0 · n=1

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.1156

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.843804447899619-3.2546133471728216	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-3	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYM",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.190852,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.595426,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.404574,
    "away_win_probability": 0.595426
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.190852,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYM wins 6-3",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "NYM 6 - 3 TEX",
    "confidence": 0.595426,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.645009,
    "sample_size": 284,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5563,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.600654,
    "published_confidence": 0.595426,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
    "home_net_margin": -3.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
    "home_average_margin": -3.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.025,
    "away_run_delta": 0.025,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.0637,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.212,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.1156
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.022061916677217967
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02174309226816475
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02093485332133187
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02063231649570412
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.020252643884580816
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08036200462141224,
      "1": 0.11883328088423684,
      "2": 0.15156719010750486,
      "3": 0.16674472210778588,
      "4": 0.158226338649781,
      "5": 0.12950461538249852,
      "6": 0.09142637478358391,
      "7": 0.05567209161092535,
      "8": 0.029240403552588626,
      "9": 0.013246738755311512,
      "10": 0.005176239544371366
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04520089543114842,
      "1": 0.06845461767941634,
      "2": 0.09379399089234979,
      "3": 0.11626897300150132,
      "4": 0.13039748421008338,
      "5": 0.1323095351885073,
      "6": 0.12145898010186645,
      "7": 0.10087526098314885,
      "8": 0.07579774190256786,
      "9": 0.051528134429713685,
      "10": 0.03169196193792283,
      "11": 0.01763479385327103,
      "12": 0.00887785819585524,
      "13": 0.004043547745333625,
      "14": 0.0016662244473139524
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "NYM 6 - 3 TEX",
      "winner": "NYM"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "NYM 6 - 3 TEX",
      "winner": "NYM"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.072,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.138,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "NYM",
      "model_winner": "NYM",
      "simulation_winner": "NYM",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "NYM",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "NYM",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 3,
      "simulation_margin": 3,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 3,
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.1156,
      "winner": "NYM",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 3,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "NYM",
    "display_confidence": 0.5954,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6187,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5954,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.1156,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.212,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.072,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.6667,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6667,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 6,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 7
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
      "config_hash": "sha256:53760a5ddffc6f180dee92a59d27889f1cdba857749a59d2378ee233c5952253",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-f4c3ec3952acc919",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-21T09:05:52.468019+00:00",
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        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
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        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
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        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
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        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
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        "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
        "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
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        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
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    "status": "completed",
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  "score_evolution": [
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    },
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    },
    {
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    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
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    }
  ]
}

20260923_SD@LAD

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickLAD

Published scoreSD 5 - 7 LAD

Final confidence53.5%

Calibrationraw 56.6% → blended 56.0%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.3% · weight 50.0% · n=680

H2H base featurehome net 13.0 · absolute 13.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.7494

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.179140173640945-5.325048887801168	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-7	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-7	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-7	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-7	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 7,
    "confidence": 0.070312,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.535156,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.535156,
    "away_win_probability": 0.464844
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.070312,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD wins 7-5",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 7
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 7,
    "predicted_score_text": "SD 5 - 7 LAD",
    "confidence": 0.535156,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.566172,
    "sample_size": 680,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5529,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.559536,
    "published_confidence": 0.535156,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 13.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 13.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.6,
    "home_run_delta": 0.075,
    "away_run_delta": -0.075,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
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            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
      "confidence_calibration": {
        "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.566172,
        "sample_size": 680,
        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5529,
        "empirical_weight": 0.5,
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      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.54,
        "final_confidence": 0.5416,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5416,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.983238,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 0.2609,
        "calibration_sample_size": 680,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5529,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5516,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.7494,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 5,
            "home_runs": 6
          },
          "margin": 1,
          "probability_before": 0.541567,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.575796,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.983238,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": false,
          "magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
          "probability_after": 0.541567,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.541567
        },
        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": false,
          "min_starter_games": 27,
          "shrink_factor": 1.0
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 5,
        "sample_weight": 0.0577,
        "home_net_margin": 13.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 13.0,
        "home_average_margin": 2.6,
        "home_run_delta": 0.075,
        "away_run_delta": -0.075,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": 7.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -3.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 3.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 5.0
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        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
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          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
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        "home": {
          "team": "LAD",
          "games": 157,
          "wins": 97,
          "losses": 60,
          "win_pct": 0.6178343949044586,
          "runs_scored": 787,
          "runs_allowed": 587,
          "run_differential": 200,
          "run_differential_per_game": 1.2738853503184713,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "SD",
          "games": 157,
          "wins": 87,
          "losses": 70,
          "win_pct": 0.554140127388535,
          "runs_scored": 690,
          "runs_allowed": 656,
          "run_differential": 34,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.21656050955414013,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 1.0573,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0637,
        "quality_edge": 0.7494,
        "season_quality_edge": 1.1529,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 1.1529,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.0,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "conflict",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.7494
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.3147,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": 0.3147,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": 0.7494,
          "season_quality_edge": 1.1529,
          "recent_alignment": "conflict",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 3.676,
          "home_runs": 6.437,
          "home_win_probability": 0.7347
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
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            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.016746260043656973
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          {
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          {
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "5": 0.13134268806184374,
          "6": 0.12408847424720316,
          "7": 0.10618235828944823,
          "8": 0.08229409365592302,
          "9": 0.057767070499996305,
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          "11": 0.02114899976119044,
          "12": 0.011030308091389667,
          "13": 0.005210517171980926,
          "14": 0.0022293045258791615
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        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.05,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.179140173640945,
      "home_runs": 5.325048887801168,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260923_STL@PIT

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickPIT

Published scoreSTL 5 - 6 PIT

Final confidence55.6%

Calibrationraw 60.9% → blended 58.2%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.5% · weight 50.0% · n=384

H2H base featurehome net 8.0 · absolute 8.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.3673

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.141426641558341-5.5110472094073595	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "PIT",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.112026,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.556013,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.556013,
    "away_win_probability": 0.443987
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.112026,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "PIT wins 6-5",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "STL 5 - 6 PIT",
    "confidence": 0.556012535,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.609038,
    "sample_size": 384,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5547,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.581869,
    "published_confidence": 0.556013,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 8.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 8.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.6,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0462,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0462,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.3949,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.316,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.3673
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01585531359069926
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.015715820094941352
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.015404604211684917
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.015269076012891332
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.014811327499162053
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03486361185809645,
      "1": 0.053168880793756555,
      "2": 0.07439060205371252,
      "3": 0.09548915340317532,
      "4": 0.11245154501653518,
      "5": 0.12149327102693602,
      "6": 0.12042438513012527,
      "7": 0.10950956769530812,
      "8": 0.0913618964513354,
      "9": 0.06992839520111842,
      "10": 0.04910406339820172,
      "11": 0.03163418982578852,
      "12": 0.01869697792497435,
      "13": 0.010138215737129601,
      "14": 0.0050434422965586895,
      "15": 0.002301802187247726
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04284989154184672,
      "1": 0.06499719116362646,
      "2": 0.08948171694364919,
      "3": 0.11180697187356108,
      "4": 0.12679388810158543,
      "5": 0.1305036357707746,
      "6": 0.12191068175189936,
      "7": 0.10336077717769068,
      "8": 0.07953616188005158,
      "9": 0.05554799025282356,
      "10": 0.03521007327554795,
      "11": 0.020256311385676972,
      "12": 0.01057666277148229,
      "13": 0.005012239419394082,
      "14": 0.0021558066903901722
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "STL 5 - 6 PIT",
      "winner": "PIT"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "STL 5 - 6 PIT",
      "winner": "PIT"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0436,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.526,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "PIT",
      "model_winner": "PIT",
      "simulation_winner": "PIT",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "PIT",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "PIT",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.3673,
      "winner": "PIT",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "PIT",
    "display_confidence": 0.556,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6099,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.556,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.3673,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.316,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0436,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.6667,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 6,
        "median": 11,
        "max": 16,
        "range": 10
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
      "config_hash": "sha256:53760a5ddffc6f180dee92a59d27889f1cdba857749a59d2378ee233c5952253",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-f4c3ec3952acc919",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-21T09:05:52.468019+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
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    },
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    },
    {
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      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
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    {
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  ]
}

20260923_TB@NYY

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickTB

Published scoreTB 5 - 4 NYY

Final confidence50.5%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 52.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.3% · weight 50.0% · n=505

H2H base featurehome net 0.0 · absolute 0.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.0639

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.881671033367293-5.271093600949147	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.010518,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.505259,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
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            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
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            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
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            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
            "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
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            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
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            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
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      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
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          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
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        "starter_experience": {
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
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        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": -5.0
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            "home_margin": 2.0
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          {
            "home_margin": 8.0
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      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
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        "home": {
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          "losses": 67,
          "win_pct": 0.5732484076433121,
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          "runs_allowed": 582,
          "run_differential": 134,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.8535031847133758,
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        },
        "away": {
          "team": "TB",
          "games": 157,
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        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.3057,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.0382,
        "quality_edge": -0.0639,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.2484,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 0.2484,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.644,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
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          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "conflict",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.0639
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        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
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    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
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      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
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      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260923_TOR@BAL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickBAL

Published scoreTOR 4 - 5 BAL

Final confidence50.5%

Calibrationraw 46.0% → blended 50.3%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.6% · weight 50.0% · n=531

H2H base featurehome net -9.0 · absolute 9.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.077

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.5395742796774305-4.497874391086703	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "BAL",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.01,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.505,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.505,
    "away_win_probability": 0.495
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.01,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "BAL wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "TOR 4 - 5 BAL",
    "confidence": 0.505,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.4601,
    "sample_size": 531,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5461,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5031,
    "published_confidence": 0.505,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -9.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 9.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.8,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0519,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0519,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.0732,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.084,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.077
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.019451104604635196
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.019066265036462554
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01884807216281558
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01847516357487368
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.0179760338396466
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.050945885066459085,
      "1": 0.0768595950439625,
      "2": 0.1041046590966101,
      "3": 0.12659755983324278,
      "4": 0.13821767939618812,
      "5": 0.135483046421155,
      "6": 0.11923105967555545,
      "7": 0.09420564949050461,
      "8": 0.06682632621699716,
      "9": 0.042559970540728104,
      "10": 0.024335380713494097,
      "11": 0.012492750461067565,
      "12": 0.005757859713546341,
      "13": 0.002382578330489157
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05294351196692946,
      "1": 0.07977123522102063,
      "2": 0.10763466448875478,
      "3": 0.13005596619894025,
      "4": 0.14072805077909328,
      "5": 0.13636513248633944,
      "6": 0.1183309303910143,
      "7": 0.0919529133735811,
      "8": 0.06398894974873111,
      "9": 0.039876473534194136,
      "10": 0.02225362580395864,
      "11": 0.011121339319321601,
      "12": 0.004977206688121319
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "TOR 4 - 5 BAL",
      "winner": "BAL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "TOR 4 - 5 BAL",
      "winner": "BAL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0793,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.014,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "BAL",
      "model_winner": "BAL",
      "simulation_winner": "BAL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "BAL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.8333,
        "draw_majority_team": "BAL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.077,
      "winner": "BAL",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "BAL",
    "display_confidence": 0.505,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6148,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.505,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.077,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.084,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0793,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.8333,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.1667,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6667,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 6,
        "max": 13,
        "range": 10
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
      "config_hash": "sha256:53760a5ddffc6f180dee92a59d27889f1cdba857749a59d2378ee233c5952253",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-f4c3ec3952acc919",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-21T09:05:52.468019+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
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  ]
}

20260923_TOR@BAL_2

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickTOR

Published scoreTOR 6 - 5 BAL

Final confidence51.2%

Calibrationraw 51.5% → blended 53.5%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.5% · weight 50.0% · n=740

H2H base featurehome net -9.0 · absolute 9.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.077

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.78850051581124-3.8478164913641026	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	6-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TOR",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": -0.02333,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.511665,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.488335,
    "away_win_probability": 0.511665
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  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.02333,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "TOR wins 6-5",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "TOR 6 - 5 BAL",
    "confidence": 0.511664618,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
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    "sample_size": 740,
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    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.535232,
    "published_confidence": 0.511665,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -9.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 9.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.8,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0519,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0519,
    "evidence": [
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        "home_margin": 1.0
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      {
        "home_margin": -7.0
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        "home_margin": -4.0
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    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
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    "home_distribution": {
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      "6": 0.12171616489984356,
      "7": 0.10209173679317542,
      "8": 0.07759059149442966,
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    "away_distribution": {
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      "5": 0.13025722875662846,
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      "8": 0.07999537081836573,
      "9": 0.056055237056008775,
      "10": 0.03566421722309362,
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
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    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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  "simulation_reconciliation": {
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      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "TOR 6 - 5 BAL",
      "winner": "TOR"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "TOR 6 - 5 BAL",
      "winner": "TOR"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
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      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.014,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
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    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
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    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
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      "home_runs": 5,
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      "model_winner": "TOR",
      "simulation_winner": "TOR",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "TOR",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333,
        "draw_majority_team": "BAL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
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      "simulation_realized_target": true,
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      "simulation_score": {
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    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
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      "score_reviewed": {
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        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
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      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "TOR",
    "display_confidence": 0.5117,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.505,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5117,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
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      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.1181,
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      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
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      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 4,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 7
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    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
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    "pregame_proof": {
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      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-23T22:35:00+00:00",
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            "recent.window_games": 10,
            "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
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            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
            "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
            "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
            "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
            "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
            "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
            "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
            "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
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        "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.515065,
        "sample_size": 740,
        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5554,
        "empirical_weight": 0.5,
        "blended_confidence": 0.535232
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      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.53,
        "final_confidence": 0.5258,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5258,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.984565,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 0.1,
        "calibration_sample_size": 740,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5554,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5541,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.077,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 6,
            "home_runs": 5
          },
          "margin": -1,
          "probability_before": 0.474158,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.424204,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.984565,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": false,
          "magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
          "probability_after": 0.474158,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.525842
        },
        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": true,
          "min_starter_games": 8,
          "per_starter_career_games": {
            "694346": 8,
            "453286": 16
          },
          "shrink_factor": 0.7833,
          "probability_before": 0.474158,
          "probability_after": 0.479757,
          "reason": "inexperienced starter (debut/thin history): confidence shrunk toward 0.5 by career-games factor; winner unchanged"
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 5,
        "sample_weight": 0.0577,
        "home_net_margin": -9.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 9.0,
        "home_average_margin": -1.8,
        "home_run_delta": -0.0519,
        "away_run_delta": 0.0519,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -7.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -4.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 3.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -2.0
          }
        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
          "h2h.history_limit": 5,
          "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": false,
        "home": {
          "team": "BAL",
          "games": 157,
          "wins": 76,
          "losses": 81,
          "win_pct": 0.4840764331210191,
          "runs_scored": 697,
          "runs_allowed": 727,
          "run_differential": -30,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.1910828025477707,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "TOR",
          "games": 157,
          "wins": 77,
          "losses": 80,
          "win_pct": 0.49044585987261147,
          "runs_scored": 632,
          "runs_allowed": 675,
          "run_differential": -43,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.27388535031847133,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.0828,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.0064,
        "quality_edge": 0.077,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.0732,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 0.0732,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.084,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.077
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.017799500376354273
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.017404621493463203
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.01723728290559308
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.016854876721491406
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 6,
            "probability": 0.016609875533313556
          }
        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.04259612233790147,
          "1": 0.06588167270376324,
          "2": 0.09188536356610799,
          "3": 0.11556204760649055,
          "4": 0.13106033933527292,
          "5": 0.13403385762795594,
          "6": 0.12360752645648257,
          "7": 0.10279274972394777,
          "8": 0.0770845286241292,
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          "10": 0.03178617015853369,
          "11": 0.017478511697285804,
          "12": 0.008666781836876384,
          "13": 0.003875238613708653,
          "14": 0.0015625222225239099
        },
        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.04108600523907442,
          "1": 0.06361428726813267,
          "2": 0.08900921641012857,
          "3": 0.1125472410460467,
          "4": 0.12860394538102016,
          "5": 0.1327985383048601,
          "6": 0.12392298354508578,
          "7": 0.1045032965339278,
          "8": 0.0796393457207954,
          "9": 0.05484599755101443,
          "10": 0.03413357368010225,
          "11": 0.01919721122766028,
          "12": 0.009756950248510358,
          "13": 0.004481357602162874,
          "14": 0.001860050241478205
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.05,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.78850051581124,
      "home_runs": 3.8478164913641026,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260923_WAS@DET

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickWAS

Published scoreWAS 6 - 4 DET

Final confidence50.5%

Calibrationraw 54.4% → blended 54.3%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.3% · weight 50.0% · n=505

H2H base featurehome net 5.0 · absolute 5.0 · n=2

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.2169

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.043902576364532-4.639880279334525	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "WAS",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.01,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.505,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.495,
    "away_win_probability": 0.505
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.01,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "WAS wins 6-4 (Extra Innings - 13)",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "WAS 6 - 4 DET",
    "confidence": 0.505,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.54431,
    "sample_size": 505,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5426,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.543455,
    "published_confidence": 0.505,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 2,
    "sample_weight": 0.03,
    "home_net_margin": 5.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 5.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.5,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0375,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0375,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 7.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.4177,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.156,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.2169
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.019852304505044095
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.019330547809896167
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01910318619418431
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01860111776716917
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.018446563876759903
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0540805971589865,
      "1": 0.08142141174855909,
      "2": 0.10960622260188714,
      "3": 0.13192625248681647,
      "4": 0.14197983722471133,
      "5": 0.13662228813962154,
      "6": 0.11754816880399356,
      "7": 0.09042939265880148,
      "8": 0.06220177713097931,
      "9": 0.03825563404894637,
      "10": 0.02103717639968044,
      "11": 0.010343771675466538,
      "12": 0.0045474699215503536
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05215118832138507,
      "1": 0.0786198637172909,
      "2": 0.10625311071717437,
      "3": 0.12873371707986841,
      "4": 0.13982481522093784,
      "5": 0.13614995049826498,
      "6": 0.11884803631185431,
      "7": 0.09300532656249162,
      "8": 0.06524765722020019,
      "9": 0.04103583850566901,
      "10": 0.02313678390960834,
      "11": 0.011694561922003644,
      "12": 0.00529915001325126
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "WAS 6 - 4 DET",
      "winner": "WAS"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "WAS 6 - 4 DET",
      "winner": "WAS"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0976,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.156,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "WAS",
      "model_winner": "WAS",
      "simulation_winner": "WAS",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 4,
        "published_winner": "WAS",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.75,
        "draw_majority_team": "WAS",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.2169,
      "winner": "WAS",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "WAS",
    "display_confidence": 0.505,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6196,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.505,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.2169,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.156,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0976,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.75,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.25,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.25,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 1,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 10
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
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      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260924_ARI@COL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickARI

Published scoreARI 6 - 5 COL

Final confidence56.0%

Calibrationraw 72.6% → blended 63.8%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.1% · weight 50.0% · n=205

H2H base featurehome net -13.0 · absolute 13.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -1.1569

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.637397707968-3.6671756047918995	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	6-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	6-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "ARI",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": -0.12,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.44,
    "away_win_probability": 0.56
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.12,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "ARI wins 6-5",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "ARI 6 - 5 COL",
    "confidence": 0.56,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.725789,
    "sample_size": 205,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5512,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.638495,
    "published_confidence": 0.56,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -13.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 13.0,
    "home_average_margin": -2.6,
    "home_run_delta": -0.075,
    "away_run_delta": 0.075,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -9.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.4589,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.596,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -1.1569
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.01439676630418284
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.014283674296652005
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.0139300487889791
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.01382062302285477
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.013516662469649917
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04217339762812111,
      "1": 0.0640003165874018,
      "2": 0.0882303192003646,
      "3": 0.11049580112576303,
      "4": 0.12570886233904058,
      "5": 0.1299206586334214,
      "6": 0.12197834246099762,
      "7": 0.10403499195920335,
      "8": 0.0806061808884701,
      "9": 0.056734789537886465,
      "10": 0.036276280216041845,
      "11": 0.021071150264602864,
      "12": 0.011118493254003324,
      "13": 0.00532961485783184,
      "14": 0.002320801046850093
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.025203700462339964,
      "1": 0.03869546020249009,
      "2": 0.05523982178387775,
      "3": 0.0733231421442314,
      "4": 0.09049538098489816,
      "5": 0.1038504311743283,
      "6": 0.11081198675881211,
      "7": 0.10994151697578915,
      "8": 0.1014222532613211,
      "9": 0.08699640990103785,
      "10": 0.06938505758076159,
      "11": 0.05145494536286701,
      "12": 0.03548010005735776,
      "13": 0.022747784043978238,
      "14": 0.01356094340581064,
      "15": 0.007516873758657749,
      "16": 0.003874192141440942
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "ARI 6 - 5 COL",
      "winner": "ARI"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "ARI 6 - 5 COL",
      "winner": "ARI"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1533,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.666,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "ARI",
      "model_winner": "ARI",
      "simulation_winner": "ARI",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "ARI",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "ARI",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.1569,
      "winner": "ARI",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "ARI",
    "display_confidence": 0.56,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6639,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.1569,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.596,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.1533,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.1667,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.1667,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.1667,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 6,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 12,
        "range": 6
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-24T09:06:53.755755+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
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        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
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        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
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        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
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        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
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        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
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        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
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        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
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        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
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        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
      "config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
      "config_hash": "sha256:53760a5ddffc6f180dee92a59d27889f1cdba857749a59d2378ee233c5952253",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-f4c3ec3952acc919",
      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:9ca63931a023e9b6f5e0ed6f872bef54d37bd4e9dc951e5e10b28553b15e3582"
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    "changes": [
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        "parameter": "confidence.base_cap",
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        "new_value": 0.56,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "enhanced_shadow"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-24T18:37:00.369895+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-24T19:10:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.382465,
      "confidence": 0.617535,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "total_runs": 11
      },
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      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "parameters": {
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            "recent.window_games": 10,
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            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
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            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
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            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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        }
      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.382465,
      "confidence": 0.617535,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
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        "total_runs": 11
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
          "config_hash": "sha256:53760a5ddffc6f180dee92a59d27889f1cdba857749a59d2378ee233c5952253",
          "parent_config_id": "candidate-f4c3ec3952acc919",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-21T09:05:52.468019+00:00",
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            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
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            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
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            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
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            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
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            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
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            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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        "away": {
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        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
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        "adjusted_score": {
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        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
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  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
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      "home_runs": 3.6671756047918995,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260924_CHW@KC

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickCHW

Published scoreCHW 7 - 5 KC

Final confidence54.5%

Calibrationraw 74.1% → blended 65.7%

Empirical signalhit rate 57.4% · weight 50.0% · n=422

H2H base featurehome net -23.0 · absolute 23.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.9229

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.016832231717585-4.501236962595471	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	7-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	7-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	7-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	7-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	7-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHW",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": -0.08924,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.54462,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.45538,
    "away_win_probability": 0.54462
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.08924,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHW wins 7-5",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "CHW 7 - 5 KC",
    "confidence": 0.5446204099999999,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.740741,
    "sample_size": 422,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5735,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.65712,
    "published_confidence": 0.54462,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -23.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 23.0,
    "home_average_margin": -4.6,
    "home_run_delta": -0.1327,
    "away_run_delta": 0.1327,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -21.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.0601,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.668,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.9229
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.01379351015036055
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.013612021151675183
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.013177266329399013
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.013157957290284083
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 8,
        "probability": 0.013038733397839838
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.039843393141624245,
      "1": 0.06055999761125719,
      "2": 0.08388408670337608,
      "3": 0.10588574826790544,
      "4": 0.1218034635831074,
      "5": 0.12768678862662503,
      "6": 0.12198220772938889,
      "7": 0.10619674672754484,
      "8": 0.08425392355871203,
      "9": 0.060916263212171945,
      "10": 0.0401365993402652,
      "11": 0.024099725185583037,
      "12": 0.013187054642718158,
      "13": 0.00657578673400541,
      "14": 0.0029882149357150635
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.022868645092706065,
      "1": 0.03516754724290363,
      "2": 0.05044895185656073,
      "3": 0.06751039340886593,
      "4": 0.08427476556092274,
      "5": 0.09813702547305145,
      "6": 0.10660477327438109,
      "7": 0.10802613409516316,
      "8": 0.10211497632669747,
      "9": 0.09004476535806254,
      "10": 0.07406890486738502,
      "11": 0.05683577671363619,
      "12": 0.04068329299220981,
      "13": 0.02716556990253174,
      "14": 0.01692115351750591,
      "15": 0.00983217350711127,
      "16": 0.005329390276653028,
      "17": 0.0026947218241717688,
      "18": 0.0012710387094807026
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CHW 7 - 5 KC",
      "winner": "CHW"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CHW 7 - 5 KC",
      "winner": "CHW"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0461,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.738,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "CHW",
      "model_winner": "CHW",
      "simulation_winner": "CHW",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "CHW",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "CHW",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 7,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 7,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
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          "away_runs": 7.417,
          "home_runs": 3.672,
          "home_win_probability": 0.1816
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      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
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          "1": 0.06055999761125719,
          "2": 0.08388408670337608,
          "3": 0.10588574826790544,
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "1": 0.03516754724290363,
          "2": 0.05044895185656073,
          "3": 0.06751039340886593,
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          "7": 0.10802613409516316,
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          "9": 0.09004476535806254,
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          "18": 0.0012710387094807026
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.016832231717585,
      "home_runs": 4.501236962595471,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260924_CIN@ATL

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickATL

Published scoreCIN 5 - 7 ATL

Final confidence56.0%

Calibrationraw 66.4% → blended 61.0%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.6% · weight 50.0% · n=277

H2H base featurehome net 3.0 · absolute 3.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 1.445

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.757130488075151-5.678527974623611	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-7	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-7	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-7	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-7	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "ATL",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 7,
    "confidence": 0.12,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.56,
    "away_win_probability": 0.44
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.12,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "ATL wins 7-5",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 7
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 7,
    "predicted_score_text": "CIN 5 - 7 ATL",
    "confidence": 0.56,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.6636,
    "sample_size": 277,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.556,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.6098,
    "published_confidence": 0.56,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 3.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.6,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0173,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0173,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.943,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.52,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 1.445
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.016224951656900445
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.015948593655984826
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
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      {
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03604593422849962,
      "1": 0.054930308982711055,
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      "3": 0.0980558456124846,
      "4": 0.11486274229876531,
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      "6": 0.12115476477708245,
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      "11": 0.02983905627934505,
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      "13": 0.009221029965428456,
      "14": 0.004494191519688387
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0442746536825632,
      "1": 0.06709376889586595,
      "2": 0.09210185310988935,
      "3": 0.11452853691023365,
      "4": 0.12900846900990245,
      "5": 0.13163818761341567,
      "6": 0.12167594605501665,
      "7": 0.10187948321475972,
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "score_text": "CIN 5 - 7 ATL",
      "winner": "ATL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "score_text": "CIN 5 - 7 ATL",
      "winner": "ATL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.032,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.59,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "winner": "ATL",
      "model_winner": "ATL",
      "simulation_winner": "ATL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "ATL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "ATL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
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        "home_runs": 7
      },
      "simulation_score": {
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    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
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      "winner": "ATL",
      "score_reviewed": {
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        "home_runs": 7,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "ATL",
    "display_confidence": 0.56,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6958,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.445,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.52,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.032,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.3333,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 13,
        "range": 8
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    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
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    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "parameters": {
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        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
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        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
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        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
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        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
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        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
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  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
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    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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    "changes": [
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        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "enhanced_shadow"
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    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-24T22:36:47.390056+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-24T23:15:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.585689,
      "confidence": 0.585689,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "total_runs": 10
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      "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.base_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
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    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
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        "away": {
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  },
  "score_evolution": [
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      "stage": "historical_ml",
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      "home_runs": 5.678527974623611,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
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    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260924_CLE@BOS

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickCLE

Published scoreCLE 4 - 2 BOS

Final confidence50.6%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 52.5%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.0% · weight 50.0% · n=515

H2H base featurehome net 12.0 · absolute 12.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.1714

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.5574637701130385-4.208693786994984	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-2	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-2	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-2	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-2	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "confidence": -0.01238,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.50619,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.49381,
    "away_win_probability": 0.50619
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.01238,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE wins 4-2",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 2
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "predicted_score_text": "CLE 4 - 2 BOS",
    "confidence": 0.5061897,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 515,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5398,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.52495,
    "published_confidence": 0.50619,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 12.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 12.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.4,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0692,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0692,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.5222,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.48,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.1714
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.030435048036703844
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.028713710154834843
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.0283213963507499
      },
      {
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        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.027947185636948924
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.027414073278234342
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.09072069864660767,
      "1": 0.13315616195766497,
      "2": 0.1660852443341064,
      "3": 0.17604177106472216,
      "4": 0.15856791177652801,
      "5": 0.12137515094944164,
      "6": 0.0789512767527257,
      "7": 0.04364187795410014,
      "8": 0.020500412589860167,
      "9": 0.008183454486736354,
      "10": 0.002776039487506855
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08691496285519837,
      "1": 0.12792174103305415,
      "2": 0.16087884244437348,
      "3": 0.1728853774455287,
      "4": 0.15875314970941798,
      "5": 0.12456361318757192,
      "6": 0.0835150609401148,
      "7": 0.0478457278855756,
      "8": 0.023422124658549936,
      "9": 0.009797475105925485,
      "10": 0.0035019247346895583
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "CLE 4 - 2 BOS",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "CLE 4 - 2 BOS",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.014,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.41,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
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    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "model_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "CLE",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "CLE",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
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        "home_runs": 2
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 2
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
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      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 2,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
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    "display_confidence": 0.5062,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5992,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5062,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
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      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.1714,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.48,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.014,
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      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
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      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 7,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 7,
        "range": 0
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    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": false,
        "home": {
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          "games": 158,
          "wins": 85,
          "losses": 73,
          "win_pct": 0.5379746835443038,
          "runs_scored": 681,
          "runs_allowed": 601,
          "run_differential": 80,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.5063291139240507,
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        "away": {
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          "wins": 82,
          "losses": 76,
          "win_pct": 0.5189873417721519,
          "runs_scored": 652,
          "runs_allowed": 650,
          "run_differential": 2,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.012658227848101266,
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        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.4937,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.019,
        "quality_edge": 0.1714,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.5222,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 0.5222,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.48,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "conflict",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.1714
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
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      },
      "score_distribution": {
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        "home_distribution": {
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          "10": 0.0035019247346895583
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        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
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      "away_runs": 4.5574637701130385,
      "home_runs": 4.208693786994984,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260924_HOU@OAK

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickHOU

Published scoreHOU 7 - 5 OAK

Final confidence56.0%

Calibrationraw 73.0% → blended 63.9%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.7% · weight 50.0% · n=225

H2H base featurehome net -8.0 · absolute 8.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.8484

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.715862166826688-3.8038099980312245	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	6-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	7-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	7-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	7-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	7-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	7-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
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  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "HOU",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": -0.12,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.44,
    "away_win_probability": 0.56
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.12,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "HOU wins 7-5 (Extra Innings - 10)",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "HOU 7 - 5 OAK",
    "confidence": 0.56,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.730339,
    "sample_size": 225,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5467,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.638519,
    "published_confidence": 0.56,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -8.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 8.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.6,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0462,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0462,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -11.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.1804,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.232,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.8484
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.013443821412242424
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.013241344590881379
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      {
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        "probability": 0.012736520503298092
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03716383729862856,
      "1": 0.05659049052478432,
      "2": 0.07881653106857904,
      "3": 0.10040194457399418,
      "4": 0.11698168746868688,
      "5": 0.1246650136969811,
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      "7": 0.10833052624955058,
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      "10": 0.0449409627239228,
      "11": 0.028039791332623795,
      "12": 0.016001405566369545,
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      "14": 0.003987288801776334
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    "away_distribution": {
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      "2": 0.0500263809007776,
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      "5": 0.09761898082610974,
      "6": 0.10621540236675105,
      "7": 0.10783956952766116,
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      "11": 0.05734755517968684,
      "12": 0.04119008063903058,
      "13": 0.027606273982658452,
      "14": 0.01726475274576977,
      "15": 0.010075122833950116,
      "16": 0.005486277285282192,
      "17": 0.00278767779211843,
      "18": 0.0013217362900993892
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "HOU 7 - 5 OAK",
      "winner": "HOU"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "HOU 7 - 5 OAK",
      "winner": "HOU"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0496,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.162,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
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      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "HOU",
      "model_winner": "HOU",
      "simulation_winner": "HOU",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "HOU",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
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      },
      "simulation_score": {
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        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.8484,
      "winner": "HOU",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 7,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "HOU",
    "display_confidence": 0.56,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5835,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.8484,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.232,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0496,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.1667,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.5,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 7,
        "median": 11,
        "max": 15,
        "range": 8
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-24T09:06:53.755755+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
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        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
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        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
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        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
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  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
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    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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    "changes": [
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        "risk_tier": "low",
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    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-25T01:36:08.731695+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-25T01:40:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.365642,
      "confidence": 0.634358,
      "predicted_score": {
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        "total_runs": 12
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      "pipeline_provenance": {
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      "stage": "historical_ml",
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    },
    {
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    },
    {
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    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
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      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260924_LAA@SEA

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickSEA

Published scoreLAA 4 - 5 SEA

Final confidence56.0%

Calibrationraw 69.2% → blended 62.1%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.0% · weight 50.0% · n=229

H2H base featurehome net 8.0 · absolute 8.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.4043

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.5277320890660566-5.10270922324052	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "SEA",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.12,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.56,
    "away_win_probability": 0.44
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.12,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "SEA wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "LAA 4 - 5 SEA",
    "confidence": 0.56,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.692256,
    "sample_size": 229,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5502,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.621228,
    "published_confidence": 0.56,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 8.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 8.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.6,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0462,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0462,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.3291,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.544,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
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  "score_distribution": {
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      {
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        "probability": 0.017910381022075355
      },
      {
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        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.017859751424455103
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    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
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        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.6366,
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        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 1.6502,
        "calibration_sample_size": 229,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5502,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5466,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.4043,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 4,
            "home_runs": 5
          },
          "margin": 1,
          "probability_before": 0.636641,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.574033,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.952632,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": true,
          "probability_after": 0.605337,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.605337
        },
        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": false,
          "min_starter_games": 19,
          "shrink_factor": 1.0
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 5,
        "sample_weight": 0.0577,
        "home_net_margin": 8.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 8.0,
        "home_average_margin": 1.6,
        "home_run_delta": 0.0462,
        "away_run_delta": -0.0462,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": 5.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -1.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -2.0
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          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
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          {
            "home_margin": 5.0
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        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
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        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": false,
        "home": {
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          "games": 158,
          "wins": 74,
          "losses": 84,
          "win_pct": 0.46835443037974683,
          "runs_scored": 640,
          "runs_allowed": 702,
          "run_differential": -62,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.3924050632911392,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "LAA",
          "games": 158,
          "wins": 60,
          "losses": 98,
          "win_pct": 0.379746835443038,
          "runs_scored": 635,
          "runs_allowed": 728,
          "run_differential": -93,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.5886075949367089,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.1962,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0886,
        "quality_edge": 0.4043,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.3291,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 0.3291,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.544,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.4043
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
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            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.017910381022075355
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        "home_distribution": {
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        },
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        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.5277320890660566,
      "home_runs": 5.10270922324052,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260924_MIA@CHC

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickCHC

Published scoreMIA 4 - 5 CHC

Final confidence51.9%

Calibrationraw 46.0% → blended 50.7%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.4% · weight 50.0% · n=756

H2H base featurehome net -8.0 · absolute 8.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.6258

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.605789355682878-4.8372261014176825	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHC",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.03807,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.519035,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.519035,
    "away_win_probability": 0.480965
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.03807,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHC wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 10)",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "MIA 4 - 5 CHC",
    "confidence": 0.519034985,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.4601,
    "sample_size": 756,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5542,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.50715,
    "published_confidence": 0.519035,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -8.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 8.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.6,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0462,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0462,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.9778,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.028,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.6258
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.020546606196630235
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01973532021493096
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01949004873838817
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.019305632001415426
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.019118759767775
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05437763727599484,
      "1": 0.08185206049005056,
      "2": 0.11011908621881367,
      "3": 0.1324095411534763,
      "4": 0.14229828356034604,
      "5": 0.13667961342243728,
      "6": 0.11733606547975525,
      "7": 0.09002911897683658,
      "8": 0.0617387991933848,
      "9": 0.03784051650711363,
      "10": 0.020729061136446753,
      "11": 0.010149062065774697,
      "12": 0.004441154519569752
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05641786757699703,
      "1": 0.08480519903021629,
      "2": 0.11361745126482618,
      "3": 0.13567016775173024,
      "4": 0.14439110355056956,
      "5": 0.13696615483153599,
      "6": 0.11579847657677493,
      "7": 0.08725878923159619,
      "8": 0.05860467658545647,
      "9": 0.035081012464733954,
      "10": 0.01871667583565478,
      "11": 0.00890024727237316,
      "12": 0.0037721780275351063
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "MIA 4 - 5 CHC",
      "winner": "CHC"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "MIA 4 - 5 CHC",
      "winner": "CHC"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0807,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.098,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "CHC",
      "model_winner": "CHC",
      "simulation_winner": "CHC",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "CHC",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "CHC",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6258,
      "winner": "CHC",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CHC",
    "display_confidence": 0.519,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6162,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.519,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6258,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.028,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0807,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 4
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
      "config_hash": "sha256:da7e1fc0092c8fca4370044eb58fa5897f6ef528f3b1de083f3bc7a60a53c065",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-24T09:06:53.755755+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
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        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
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        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.15,
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
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        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
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        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
        "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
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    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
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    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 4,
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    },
    {
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    },
    {
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  ]
}

20260924_MIL@PHI

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickMIL

Published scoreMIL 5 - 4 PHI

Final confidence53.9%

Calibrationraw 59.9% → blended 57.8%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.7% · weight 50.0% · n=684

H2H base featurehome net -10.0 · absolute 10.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.955

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.560245375889323-3.8725780447560214	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.07842,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53921,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.46079,
    "away_win_probability": 0.53921
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.07842,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "MIL 5 - 4 PHI",
    "confidence": 0.5392100750000001,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.598991,
    "sample_size": 684,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.557,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.577996,
    "published_confidence": 0.53921,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -10.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 10.0,
    "home_average_margin": -2.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0577,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0577,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
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            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
            "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
            "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
            "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
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        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.598991,
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        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.56,
        "final_confidence": 0.5543,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5543,
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        "calibration_sample_size": 684,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.557,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5556,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.955,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 5,
            "home_runs": 4
          },
          "margin": -1,
          "probability_before": 0.44573,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.425967,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.983333,
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          "magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
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        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": false,
          "min_starter_games": 24,
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
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        "sample_size": 5,
        "sample_weight": 0.0577,
        "home_net_margin": -10.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 10.0,
        "home_average_margin": -2.0,
        "home_run_delta": -0.0577,
        "away_run_delta": 0.0577,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": -3.0
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          {
            "home_margin": 2.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -4.0
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          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
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        "home": {
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          "games": 158,
          "wins": 87,
          "losses": 71,
          "win_pct": 0.5506329113924051,
          "runs_scored": 704,
          "runs_allowed": 676,
          "run_differential": 28,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.17721518987341772,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "MIL",
          "games": 158,
          "wins": 99,
          "losses": 59,
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          "runs_scored": 810,
          "runs_allowed": 607,
          "run_differential": 203,
          "run_differential_per_game": 1.2848101265822784,
          "available": true
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -1.1076,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.0759,
        "quality_edge": -0.955,
        "season_quality_edge": -1.2215,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
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          "recent_quality_edge": -0.46,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
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          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.955
        },
        "margin_adjustment": -0.4011,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": -0.4011,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": -0.955,
          "season_quality_edge": -1.2215,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 5.261,
          "home_runs": 2.82,
          "home_win_probability": 0.2925
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      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
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        "home_distribution": {
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "13": 0.002491377148733949
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        "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.560245375889323,
      "home_runs": 3.8725780447560214,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260924_NYM@TEX

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickNYM

Published scoreNYM 5 - 4 TEX

Final confidence52.1%

Calibrationraw 48.5% → blended 51.2%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.0% · weight 50.0% · n=524

H2H base featurehome net -8.0 · absolute 8.0 · n=2

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.11

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.321852187230532-4.346007229238714	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYM",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.041756,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.520878,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.479122,
    "away_win_probability": 0.520878
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.041756,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYM wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "NYM 5 - 4 TEX",
    "confidence": 0.5208777,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.484874,
    "sample_size": 524,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5401,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.512487,
    "published_confidence": 0.520878,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 2,
    "sample_weight": 0.03,
    "home_net_margin": -8.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 8.0,
    "home_average_margin": -4.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.06,
    "away_run_delta": 0.06,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.0095,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.332,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.11
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.020696401842226857
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02008850845860596
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.019750093631245778
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.019244840880597407
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.019169995151526863
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05966652248076004,
      "1": 0.08949011247027157,
      "2": 0.11910038582539374,
      "3": 0.14065172738187146,
      "4": 0.1473909300912483,
      "5": 0.137053533192518,
      "6": 0.11308460877601628,
      "7": 0.08279622787953618,
      "8": 0.05379121944232406,
      "9": 0.031010303434215774,
      "10": 0.015863332569276713,
      "11": 0.00720073170843909,
      "12": 0.002900364748128737
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05266936339449768,
      "1": 0.07937299545634657,
      "2": 0.10715736048494888,
      "3": 0.12960023236543636,
      "4": 0.1404184221472374,
      "5": 0.13629406128429586,
      "6": 0.11851254178198656,
      "7": 0.09231796621064453,
      "8": 0.06442325733484792,
      "9": 0.04027482542802806,
      "10": 0.02255584956298271,
      "11": 0.011316685531051583,
      "12": 0.00508643901769592
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "NYM 5 - 4 TEX",
      "winner": "NYM"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "NYM 5 - 4 TEX",
      "winner": "NYM"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0998,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.018,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "NYM",
      "model_winner": "NYM",
      "simulation_winner": "NYM",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "NYM",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "NYM",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.11,
      "winner": "NYM",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "NYM",
    "display_confidence": 0.5209,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5997,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5209,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.11,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.332,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0998,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 7,
        "range": 2
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
      "config_hash": "sha256:da7e1fc0092c8fca4370044eb58fa5897f6ef528f3b1de083f3bc7a60a53c065",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-24T09:06:53.755755+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
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    {
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    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
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    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
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    }
  ]
}

20260924_SD@LAD

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickLAD

Published scoreSD 4 - 5 LAD

Final confidence51.0%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 52.9%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.9% · weight 50.0% · n=689

H2H base featurehome net 4.0 · absolute 4.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.6803

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.470916469863103-4.874281242705484	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.019592,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.509796,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.509796,
    "away_win_probability": 0.490204
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.019592,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "SD 4 - 5 LAD",
    "confidence": 0.5097963775,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
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            "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
            "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
            "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
            "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
            "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
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        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
        "sample_size": 689,
        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5486,
        "empirical_weight": 0.5,
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      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.52935,
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        "calibration_sample_size": 689,
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        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5474,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.6803,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
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            "home_runs": 5
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          "margin": 1,
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          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.574033,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.983451,
          "side_flipped": false,
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          "magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
          "probability_after": 0.518595,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.518595
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        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": true,
          "min_starter_games": 7,
          "per_starter_career_games": {
            "607192": 12,
            "601713": 7
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          "shrink_factor": 0.7292,
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        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
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        "home_net_margin": 4.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 4.0,
        "home_average_margin": 0.8,
        "home_run_delta": 0.0231,
        "away_run_delta": -0.0231,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": -4.0
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          {
            "home_margin": 7.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -3.0
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            "home_margin": 3.0
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          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
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        "home": {
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          "wins": 97,
          "losses": 61,
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          "runs_scored": 788,
          "runs_allowed": 592,
          "run_differential": 196,
          "run_differential_per_game": 1.240506329113924,
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        },
        "away": {
          "team": "SD",
          "games": 158,
          "wins": 88,
          "losses": 70,
          "win_pct": 0.5569620253164557,
          "runs_scored": 695,
          "runs_allowed": 657,
          "run_differential": 38,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.24050632911392406,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 1.0,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.057,
        "quality_edge": 0.6803,
        "season_quality_edge": 1.0854,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 1.0854,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.072,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "conflict",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.6803
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.2857,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": 0.2857,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": 0.6803,
          "season_quality_edge": 1.0854,
          "recent_alignment": "conflict",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 3.859,
          "home_runs": 5.032,
          "home_win_probability": 0.5997
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      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
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        "home_distribution": {
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        "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.470916469863103,
      "home_runs": 4.874281242705484,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260924_STL@PIT

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickPIT

Published scoreSTL 4 - 5 PIT

Final confidence52.8%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 53.4%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.9% · weight 50.0% · n=682

H2H base featurehome net 0.0 · absolute 0.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.3532

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.788436048325341-5.500705428463004	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "PIT",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.0551,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.52755,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.52755,
    "away_win_probability": 0.47245
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.0551,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "PIT wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "STL 4 - 5 PIT",
    "confidence": 0.5275496475,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 682,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5587,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5344,
    "published_confidence": 0.52755,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.3323,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.392,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.3532
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02081226366379775
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01988115466374111
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.01964305753488803
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.019628646279969634
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.019448738897863256
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05527235233938568,
      "1": 0.08314814931543317,
      "2": 0.11165846104402682,
      "3": 0.13385207241831928,
      "4": 0.14323626008583368,
      "5": 0.13682808781515637,
      "6": 0.11667879996343887,
      "7": 0.08881842368854992,
      "8": 0.06035435042126447,
      "9": 0.036610740261761435,
      "10": 0.019824527812681268,
      "11": 0.00958278192305989,
      "12": 0.004134992911089104
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.057357500708918915,
      "1": 0.0861624525195108,
      "2": 0.11521437926850878,
      "3": 0.13713746451573797,
      "4": 0.14530024486345913,
      "5": 0.1370368527369205,
      "6": 0.11504538574890458,
      "7": 0.08597295071200058,
      "8": 0.057189363064547624,
      "9": 0.03386331620799585,
      "10": 0.01784861457333401,
      "11": 0.008374142290211129,
      "12": 0.003497332789950093
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "STL 4 - 5 PIT",
      "winner": "PIT"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "STL 4 - 5 PIT",
      "winner": "PIT"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0209,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.462,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "PIT",
      "model_winner": "PIT",
      "simulation_winner": "PIT",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "PIT",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "PIT",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.3532,
      "winner": "PIT",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "PIT",
    "display_confidence": 0.5275,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5796,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5275,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.3532,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.392,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0209,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3333,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.3333,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 6,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 5
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
      "config_hash": "sha256:da7e1fc0092c8fca4370044eb58fa5897f6ef528f3b1de083f3bc7a60a53c065",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-24T09:06:53.755755+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
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}

20260924_TB@NYY

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickNYY

Published scoreTB 2 - 4 NYY

Final confidence53.1%

Calibrationraw 54.9% → blended 55.1%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.3% · weight 50.0% · n=691

H2H base featurehome net 9.0 · absolute 9.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.185

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.295316691449317-5.235244192728143	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	2-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	2-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	2-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	2-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.062272,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.531136,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.531136,
    "away_win_probability": 0.468864
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.062272,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY wins 4-2",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "TB 2 - 4 NYY",
    "confidence": 0.5311363499999999,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.548657,
    "sample_size": 691,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5528,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.550728,
    "published_confidence": 0.531136,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 9.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 9.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.8,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0519,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0519,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
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  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.3449,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.112,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.185
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.024285963649880254
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.024277539466072005
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      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.023964805104349434
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      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02395649232228163
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.021467001552266655
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06935122731254538,
      "1": 0.10332759783301478,
      "2": 0.13480562413206995,
      "3": 0.15400300198833647,
      "4": 0.15405644025367574,
      "5": 0.1349460034477179,
      "6": 0.10350699306610085,
      "7": 0.06951985445352596,
      "8": 0.04088627193601181,
      "9": 0.021055990118510844,
      "10": 0.009495182580939109,
      "11": 0.0037493887227059257,
      "12": 0.0012964241548452167
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    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07224826907150249,
      "1": 0.10743410842246989,
      "2": 0.13934504469218034,
      "3": 0.15764328716079626,
      "4": 0.15555860608545796,
      "5": 0.13388971326066465,
      "6": 0.10051595143725854,
      "7": 0.06581992332097474,
      "8": 0.03759363876441917,
      "9": 0.018728628011678572,
      "10": 0.00813827144656019,
      "11": 0.0030845583260371784
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "TB 2 - 4 NYY",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "TB 2 - 4 NYY",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0045,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.042,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "model_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "NYY",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333,
        "draw_majority_team": "TB",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.185,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "NYY",
    "display_confidence": 0.5311,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5227,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5311,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.185,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.112,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0045,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.3333,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3333,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 4,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 7,
        "range": 3
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
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        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
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        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
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    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-24T22:36:44.918208+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-24T23:05:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.536631,
      "confidence": 0.536631,
      "predicted_score": {
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    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
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      "confidence": 0.536631,
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            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
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            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
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            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
            "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
            "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
            "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
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            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
            "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
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        "raw_confidence": 0.548657,
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      "confidence_governor": {
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        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
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        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5515,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
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        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
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        "score_coherence": {
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          "published_score": {
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        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": false,
          "min_starter_games": 32,
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
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        "home_net_margin": 9.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 9.0,
        "home_average_margin": 1.8,
        "home_run_delta": 0.0519,
        "away_run_delta": -0.0519,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": 7.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -5.0
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            "home_margin": 2.0
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
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        "home": {
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          "games": 158,
          "wins": 91,
          "losses": 67,
          "win_pct": 0.5759493670886076,
          "runs_scored": 725,
          "runs_allowed": 584,
          "run_differential": 141,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.8924050632911392,
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        "away": {
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          "games": 158,
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          "run_differential": 79,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.5,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.3924,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.0316,
        "quality_edge": 0.185,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.3449,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
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          "recent_quality_edge": -0.112,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "conflict",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.185
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
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        "home_distribution": {
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          "11": 0.0030845583260371784
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        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.295316691449317,
      "home_runs": 5.235244192728143,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260925_ARI@SD

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickARI

Published scoreARI 6 - 5 SD

Final confidence50.5%

Calibrationraw 56.2% → blended 55.3%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.3% · weight 50.0% · n=523

H2H base featurehome net -3.0 · absolute 3.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.2662

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.146106105521381-4.399300110465504	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	6-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "ARI",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": -0.010526,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.505263,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.494737,
    "away_win_probability": 0.505263
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.010526,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "ARI wins 6-5",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "ARI 6 - 5 SD",
    "confidence": 0.5052634125,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.562385,
    "sample_size": 523,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.543,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.552693,
    "published_confidence": 0.505263,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -3.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.6,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0173,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0173,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.2264,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.34,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.2662
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.015420692009506983
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.015144155865786473
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01500391994392834
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.014734857689171729
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.014491478771724792
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03740153235375832,
      "1": 0.05694317617099317,
      "2": 0.07926905775701784,
      "3": 0.10089634195196107,
      "4": 0.11742399791045702,
      "5": 0.12495338362812441,
      "6": 0.12157629265428042,
      "7": 0.10815820907982143,
      "8": 0.08797915686815286,
      "9": 0.06543495687637856,
      "10": 0.044498929360447324,
      "11": 0.027669354027124837,
      "12": 0.01573106751290352,
      "13": 0.008177623023210952,
      "14": 0.003886920825368275
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.036167179629637405,
      "1": 0.055110485612127495,
      "2": 0.07691271730980481,
      "3": 0.09831196916347609,
      "4": 0.11509566257829211,
      "5": 0.12341156006947943,
      "6": 0.12119844558077128,
      "7": 0.1090140764674444,
      "8": 0.08980746393642598,
      "9": 0.06776206116479289,
      "10": 0.046827945636553236,
      "11": 0.029639298856079604,
      "12": 0.017182053567285565,
      "13": 0.009122765974583592,
      "14": 0.004436314453245906
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "ARI 6 - 5 SD",
      "winner": "ARI"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "ARI 6 - 5 SD",
      "winner": "ARI"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0664,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.27,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "ARI",
      "model_winner": "ARI",
      "simulation_winner": "ARI",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 4,
        "published_winner": "ARI",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.75,
        "draw_majority_team": "ARI",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.2662,
      "winner": "ARI",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "ARI",
    "display_confidence": 0.5053,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5852,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5053,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.2662,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.34,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0664,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.75,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.25,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.25,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 6
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
      "config_hash": "sha256:da7e1fc0092c8fca4370044eb58fa5897f6ef528f3b1de083f3bc7a60a53c065",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-24T09:06:53.755755+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
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      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260925_ATL@MIA

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickATL

Published scoreATL 5 - 4 MIA

Final confidence53.4%

Calibrationraw 58.4% → blended 57.2%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.9% · weight 50.0% · n=692

H2H base featurehome net -27.0 · absolute 27.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.5343

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.797926768614407-4.066974455322697	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "ATL",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.068862,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.534431,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.465569,
    "away_win_probability": 0.534431
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.068862,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "ATL wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 10)",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "ATL 5 - 4 MIA",
    "confidence": 0.53443146,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.583966,
    "sample_size": 692,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5592,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.571583,
    "published_confidence": 0.534431,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -27.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 27.0,
    "home_average_margin": -5.4,
    "home_run_delta": -0.1558,
    "away_run_delta": 0.1558,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -8.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.8522,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.056,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.5343
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.020285078938493704
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.020261888128339216
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01980750476670822
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.019784859940722006
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.018313289007899764
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06447004704504093,
      "1": 0.09637774876630113,
      "2": 0.12701010712085403,
      "3": 0.14755111685081423,
      "4": 0.15110868774406921,
      "5": 0.13642032543488392,
      "6": 0.10857040115262985,
      "7": 0.07617044940047626,
      "8": 0.04710904578311696,
      "9": 0.025684127147787426,
      "10": 0.012344344379638687,
      "11": 0.005230147790589772,
      "12": 0.0019534513837976856
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04785058623585053,
      "1": 0.07234113831336787,
      "2": 0.0986017669461203,
      "3": 0.12116727497702152,
      "4": 0.134241645806959,
      "5": 0.13408817474913493,
      "6": 0.1207521783402318,
      "7": 0.09803942444140468,
      "8": 0.07176419470467647,
      "9": 0.04736048733393852,
      "10": 0.02817901402797165,
      "11": 0.015115993895288298,
      "12": 0.007310530719046546,
      "13": 0.0031875895089880212
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "ATL 5 - 4 MIA",
      "winner": "ATL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "ATL 5 - 4 MIA",
      "winner": "ATL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0359,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.294,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "ATL",
      "model_winner": "ATL",
      "simulation_winner": "ATL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 4,
        "published_winner": "ATL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.5343,
      "winner": "ATL",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "ATL",
    "display_confidence": 0.5344,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.569,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5344,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.5343,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.056,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0359,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.25,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 7,
        "median": 10,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 4
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-24T09:06:53.755755+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
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        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
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        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
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        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
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        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
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        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
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        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
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        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
        "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
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        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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    "changes": [
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        "parameter": "confidence.base_cap",
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        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "enhanced_shadow"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-25T22:41:16.461612+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-25T23:10:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.452344,
      "confidence": 0.5476559999999999,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "total_runs": 8
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "parameters": {
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            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
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        }
      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.452344,
      "confidence": 0.5476559999999999,
      "predicted_score": {
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      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
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          "parent_config_id": "candidate-f4c3ec3952acc919",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-21T09:05:52.468019+00:00",
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            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
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            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
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            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
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            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
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            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
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            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
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            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
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            "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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        "starter_experience": {
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            "678061": 8
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        "away": {
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.7107,
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        "recent_quality_blend": {
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        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
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    },
    "validity": {
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      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.797926768614407,
      "home_runs": 4.066974455322697,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260925_BAL@NYY

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickNYY

Published scoreBAL 5 - 6 NYY

Final confidence50.5%

Calibrationraw 52.9% → blended 53.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.3% · weight 50.0% · n=523

H2H base featurehome net 6.0 · absolute 6.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.8719

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.333537292709107-2.988694556506531	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-3	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.01,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.505,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.505,
    "away_win_probability": 0.495
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.01,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY wins 6-5 (Extra Innings - 11)",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "BAL 5 - 6 NYY",
    "confidence": 0.505,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.529428,
    "sample_size": 523,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.543,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.536214,
    "published_confidence": 0.505,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 6.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 6.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.2,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0346,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0346,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.195,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.272,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.8719
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.022009582096405682
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.0211459465059566
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.021091956974933674
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.020355296213918128
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.020288500931312885
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06054926658475804,
      "1": 0.09075941243733304,
      "2": 0.12057164180781149,
      "3": 0.14196110922309743,
      "4": 0.14813725875014033,
      "5": 0.1370029548479875,
      "6": 0.11229651395247599,
      "7": 0.0815780510399444,
      "8": 0.05252318899227621,
      "9": 0.029970884393763213,
      "10": 0.01515719160173427,
      "11": 0.0067937354764917605,
      "12": 0.002698790892186283
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06108432733519885,
      "1": 0.09152800090711886,
      "2": 0.12145954599365472,
      "3": 0.14274563120965383,
      "4": 0.14857559996792388,
      "5": 0.13695744812946098,
      "6": 0.11180914166094437,
      "7": 0.08083928561931825,
      "8": 0.05176319991647352,
      "9": 0.02935440353246237,
      "10": 0.014742763536567694,
      "11": 0.0065574960080782094,
      "12": 0.00258315618314448
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "BAL 5 - 6 NYY",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "BAL 5 - 6 NYY",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0759,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.482,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "model_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "NYY",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.8719,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "NYY",
    "display_confidence": 0.505,
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    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
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            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.020355296213918128
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.020288500931312885
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
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          "1": 0.09075941243733304,
          "2": 0.12057164180781149,
          "3": 0.14196110922309743,
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          "5": 0.1370029548479875,
          "6": 0.11229651395247599,
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          "10": 0.01515719160173427,
          "11": 0.0067937354764917605,
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "7": 0.08083928561931825,
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          "10": 0.014742763536567694,
          "11": 0.0065574960080782094,
          "12": 0.00258315618314448
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.333537292709107,
      "home_runs": 2.988694556506531,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260925_BAL@NYY_2

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickNYY

Published scoreBAL 5 - 6 NYY

Final confidence51.2%

Calibrationraw 59.2% → blended 56.7%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.3% · weight 50.0% · n=523

H2H base featurehome net 6.0 · absolute 6.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.8719

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.092527306142445-3.4948662360516636	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-3	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail, season_quality_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.023158,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.511579,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.511579,
    "away_win_probability": 0.488421
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.023158,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY wins 6-5",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "BAL 5 - 6 NYY",
    "confidence": 0.511579326875,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.591659,
    "sample_size": 523,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.543,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.56733,
    "published_confidence": 0.511579,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 6.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 6.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.2,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0346,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0346,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.195,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.272,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.8719
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.018551983898029433
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01783951877847235
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.017659134434098524
      },
      {
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        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.017550465774616608
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.017384522878491068
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.041155139496962714,
      "1": 0.062498132980194326,
      "2": 0.08633781905680889,
      "3": 0.10849910820496826,
      "4": 0.12403445070530135,
      "5": 0.12898807197997325,
      "6": 0.12202472549896735,
      "7": 0.10501157976060933,
      "8": 0.08220866751122571,
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      "11": 0.022351426565576624,
      "12": 0.011982568541233692,
      "13": 0.005843669711271636,
      "14": 0.0025924623935643636
    },
    "away_distribution": {
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      "1": 0.0839870781512842,
      "2": 0.11265153479555338,
      "3": 0.13477620536254079,
      "4": 0.14382712768130856,
      "5": 0.1369051739670959,
      "6": 0.11623860432106896,
      "7": 0.08803034081850344,
      "8": 0.05946560627667778,
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      "10": 0.01925693659027727,
      "11": 0.009231559684503064,
      "12": 0.003947429974962577
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "BAL 5 - 6 NYY",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "BAL 5 - 6 NYY",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0398,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.482,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "model_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "NYY",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.8333,
        "draw_majority_team": "NYY",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.8719,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "NYY",
    "display_confidence": 0.5116,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6181,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5116,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.8719,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.272,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0398,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.8333,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 8,
        "range": 3
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
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    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
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        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
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        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
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        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
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        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
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        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
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        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
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        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
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        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
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        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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    "changes": [
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        "risk_tier": "low",
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    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-25T19:36:51.344393+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-25T20:10:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.531425,
      "confidence": 0.531425,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "total_runs": 9
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
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            "recent.window_games": 10,
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            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
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            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
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            "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
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            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
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            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
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    "candidate_prediction": {
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      "predicted_score": {
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      "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "parent_config_id": "candidate-f4c3ec3952acc919",
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            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
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            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
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        "starter_experience": {
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            "687064": 27
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      "h2h_base_feature": {
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          "games": 159,
          "wins": 92,
          "losses": 67,
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          "run_differential_per_game": 0.89937106918239,
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        "away": {
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 1.0629,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0881,
        "quality_edge": 0.8719,
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        "recent_quality_blend": {
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          "recent_quality_edge": 0.272,
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        "margin_adjustment": 0.3662,
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        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
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        "adjusted_score": {
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      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
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  "score_evolution": [
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      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.092527306142445,
      "home_runs": 3.4948662360516636,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
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      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail, season_quality_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260925_CHC@BOS

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickCHC

Published scoreCHC 5 - 4 BOS

Final confidence50.5%

Calibrationraw 53.1% → blended 53.7%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.3% · weight 50.0% · n=523

H2H base featureNot available for this matchup · n=0

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.4141

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.057087310443244-4.794800530805316	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHC",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.01,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.505,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.495,
    "away_win_probability": 0.505
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.01,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHC wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "CHC 5 - 4 BOS",
    "confidence": 0.505,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.530624,
    "sample_size": 523,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.543,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.536812,
    "published_confidence": 0.505,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": false,
    "sample_size": 0,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.4497,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.348,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.4141
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.021230142237254074
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02011890447842574
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.020039303136559848
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.020020392152814363
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.019918606319563135
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05820795882516401,
      "1": 0.08738935584844953,
      "2": 0.1166519962444133,
      "3": 0.13844691450986574,
      "4": 0.14609382387123865,
      "5": 0.13706857593749114,
      "6": 0.11434084938081145,
      "7": 0.08480518315224397,
      "8": 0.05592433748529966,
      "9": 0.03278964904860192,
      "10": 0.01709346700368257,
      "11": 0.00792284239145242,
      "12": 0.003265046301285529
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05737678574731859,
      "1": 0.08619029009830853,
      "2": 0.11524706043649223,
      "3": 0.13716735318134804,
      "4": 0.14531854718215526,
      "5": 0.1370379090799865,
      "6": 0.11502964699541172,
      "7": 0.0859465083441543,
      "8": 0.05716050746949844,
      "9": 0.033838671243640116,
      "10": 0.01783117300273069,
      "11": 0.00836365121795924,
      "12": 0.003491896000996316
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "CHC 5 - 4 BOS",
      "winner": "CHC"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "CHC 5 - 4 BOS",
      "winner": "CHC"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0158,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.348,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
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      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "CHC",
      "model_winner": "CHC",
      "simulation_winner": "CHC",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 4,
        "published_winner": "CHC",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.25,
        "draw_majority_team": "BOS",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
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        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
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    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
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      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
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      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
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    "internal_signal_score": 0.5374,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
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    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
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      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0158,
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      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
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      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 6,
        "max": 7,
        "range": 2
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    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
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          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.4141
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.021230142237254074
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 4,
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          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.020039303136559848
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.020020392152814363
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.019918606319563135
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.05820795882516401,
          "1": 0.08738935584844953,
          "2": 0.1166519962444133,
          "3": 0.13844691450986574,
          "4": 0.14609382387123865,
          "5": 0.13706857593749114,
          "6": 0.11434084938081145,
          "7": 0.08480518315224397,
          "8": 0.05592433748529966,
          "9": 0.03278964904860192,
          "10": 0.01709346700368257,
          "11": 0.00792284239145242,
          "12": 0.003265046301285529
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        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.05737678574731859,
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          "2": 0.11524706043649223,
          "3": 0.13716735318134804,
          "4": 0.14531854718215526,
          "5": 0.1370379090799865,
          "6": 0.11502964699541172,
          "7": 0.0859465083441543,
          "8": 0.05716050746949844,
          "9": 0.033838671243640116,
          "10": 0.01783117300273069,
          "11": 0.00836365121795924,
          "12": 0.003491896000996316
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.057087310443244,
      "home_runs": 4.794800530805316,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260925_CHC@BOS_2

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickBOS

Published scoreCHC 3 - 4 BOS

Final confidence55.7%

Calibrationraw 59.0% → blended 57.9%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.7% · weight 50.0% · n=661

H2H base featureNot available for this matchup · n=0

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.4141

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.424909965439013-4.608170197934953	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "BOS",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.114006,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.557003,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.557003,
    "away_win_probability": 0.442997
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.114006,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "BOS wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "CHC 3 - 4 BOS",
    "confidence": 0.5570027,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.590453,
    "sample_size": 661,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5673,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.578877,
    "published_confidence": 0.557003,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": false,
    "sample_size": 0,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.4497,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.348,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.4141
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  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.022883902309619373
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.022300440031448186
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.022005519226039497
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02144445275205058
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.021274668160883685
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05419078155210037,
      "1": 0.08158117768957553,
      "2": 0.10979656948585376,
      "3": 0.13210577908836746,
      "4": 0.14209837353668922,
      "5": 0.13664402375709,
      "6": 0.11746985217649279,
      "7": 0.09028101791930182,
      "8": 0.06202984797922113,
      "9": 0.03810125064929383,
      "10": 0.02092242360250402,
      "11": 0.010271148184195618,
      "12": 0.004507754379314493
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07500342124696387,
      "1": 0.11133183115902234,
      "2": 0.1436280685609426,
      "3": 0.1610426758594168,
      "4": 0.15693663112681794,
      "5": 0.13291970319481847,
      "6": 0.09784442599783737,
      "7": 0.06259858357622866,
      "8": 0.034807642751832756,
      "9": 0.016821565426368458,
      "10": 0.007065451099750694
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "CHC 3 - 4 BOS",
      "winner": "BOS"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "CHC 3 - 4 BOS",
      "winner": "BOS"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0657,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.348,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "BOS",
      "model_winner": "BOS",
      "simulation_winner": "BOS",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "BOS",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "BOS",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.4141,
      "winner": "BOS",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "BOS",
    "display_confidence": 0.557,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5448,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.557,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.4141,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.348,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0657,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6667,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 1,
        "median": 5,
        "max": 7,
        "range": 6
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
      "config_hash": "sha256:da7e1fc0092c8fca4370044eb58fa5897f6ef528f3b1de083f3bc7a60a53c065",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-24T09:06:53.755755+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
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        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
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        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
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        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
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        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
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        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "enhanced_shadow"
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    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-25T20:36:53.340813+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-25T21:35:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.567062,
      "confidence": 0.567062,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "total_runs": 7
      },
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      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-24T09:06:53.755755+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
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            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
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            "score.variance_multiplier": 2.15,
            "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
            "recent.window_games": 10,
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            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
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            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
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            "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
            "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
            "simulation.allow_score": true,
            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
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            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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    "candidate_prediction": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
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        "raw_confidence": 0.590453,
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        "away": {
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        "recent_quality_blend": {
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  },
  "score_evolution": [
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    },
    {
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    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260925_CIN@TOR

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickTOR

Published scoreCIN 3 - 5 TOR

Final confidence63.6%

Calibrationraw 67.2% → blended 61.2%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.1% · weight 50.0% · n=225

H2H base featureNot available for this matchup · n=0

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.4693

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.7825489954943703-5.740196267817406	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TOR",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.271698,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.635849,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.635849,
    "away_win_probability": 0.364151
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.271698,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "TOR wins 5-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "CIN 3 - 5 TOR",
    "confidence": 0.635849,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.6725,
    "sample_size": 225,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5511,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.6118,
    "published_confidence": 0.635849,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": false,
    "sample_size": 0,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.7327,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.02,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.4693
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.021057636997841012
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02048348081402669
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.020447541074851753
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.019890019727459966
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.019684632736563075
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04275744034250759,
      "1": 0.06486100892209408,
      "2": 0.08931097640572552,
      "3": 0.11162850563146455,
      "4": 0.12664688734640348,
      "5": 0.13042566687527066,
      "6": 0.12192162644480244,
      "7": 0.10345406623461174,
      "8": 0.0796826041023271,
      "9": 0.05570941634229516,
      "10": 0.03535434813714377,
      "11": 0.02036602140340215,
      "12": 0.010649241932704884,
      "13": 0.005054524748681464,
      "14": 0.0021776651305653602
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.075370497144585,
      "1": 0.11184766246090991,
      "2": 0.144181201975304,
      "3": 0.16145316717436423,
      "4": 0.15705099544260379,
      "5": 0.13270613951435695,
      "6": 0.0974086523832755,
      "7": 0.06210981734874217,
      "8": 0.034401641565154926,
      "9": 0.016552144861235935,
      "10": 0.006918080129467573
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CIN 3 - 5 TOR",
      "winner": "TOR"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CIN 3 - 5 TOR",
      "winner": "TOR"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0907,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.02,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "TOR",
      "model_winner": "TOR",
      "simulation_winner": "TOR",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "TOR",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "TOR",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4693,
      "winner": "TOR",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
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          "10": 0.03535434813714377,
          "11": 0.02036602140340215,
          "12": 0.010649241932704884,
          "13": 0.005054524748681464,
          "14": 0.0021776651305653602
        },
        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.075370497144585,
          "1": 0.11184766246090991,
          "2": 0.144181201975304,
          "3": 0.16145316717436423,
          "4": 0.15705099544260379,
          "5": 0.13270613951435695,
          "6": 0.0974086523832755,
          "7": 0.06210981734874217,
          "8": 0.034401641565154926,
          "9": 0.016552144861235935,
          "10": 0.006918080129467573
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.7825489954943703,
      "home_runs": 5.740196267817406,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260925_CLE@KC

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickCLE

Published scoreCLE 4 - 3 KC

Final confidence56.0%

Calibrationraw 69.0% → blended 62.8%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.6% · weight 50.0% · n=664

H2H base featurehome net -7.0 · absolute 7.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.9415

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.8442163656742485-4.311813318055901	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.12,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.44,
    "away_win_probability": 0.56
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.12,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "CLE 4 - 3 KC",
    "confidence": 0.56,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.689611,
    "sample_size": 664,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5663,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.627955,
    "published_confidence": 0.56,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -7.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 7.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.4,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0404,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0404,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -10.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.8648,
    "recent_quality_edge": -1.084,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.9415
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02378647591348404
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.023711593604874768
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.022500178049424155
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02242934514073315
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02150338565245724
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.09144376739496698,
      "1": 0.13414697593153246,
      "2": 0.16705764298849005,
      "3": 0.17660805138432376,
      "4": 0.1584941853941267,
      "5": 0.1207465847069738,
      "6": 0.07808993539066926,
      "7": 0.04287202108258354,
      "8": 0.019980738591260826,
      "9": 0.007905107943481975,
      "10": 0.0026549891915905945
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04818044858001509,
      "1": 0.07282356945346,
      "2": 0.09919287182017163,
      "3": 0.12175767460149862,
      "4": 0.134685116148648,
      "5": 0.13426111334683735,
      "6": 0.12061137326332463,
      "7": 0.09764132392844847,
      "8": 0.07123385297521528,
      "9": 0.04683241901163993,
      "10": 0.02774687802177968,
      "11": 0.014814569584072854,
      "12": 0.007128059733651943,
      "13": 0.0030907295312367225
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "CLE 4 - 3 KC",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "CLE 4 - 3 KC",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0961,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.154,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "model_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "CLE",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "CLE",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.9415,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CLE",
    "display_confidence": 0.56,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6337,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.9415,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 1.084,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0961,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3333,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.1667,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6667,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 6,
        "max": 15,
        "range": 12
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
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      "parameters": {
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
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        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
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        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
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        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
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        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
        "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:9ca63931a023e9b6f5e0ed6f872bef54d37bd4e9dc951e5e10b28553b15e3582"
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    "changes": [
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        "new_value": 0.56,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "enhanced_shadow"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-25T23:38:18.666938+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-25T23:40:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.404233,
      "confidence": 0.595767,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "total_runs": 7
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "parameters": {
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            "recent.window_games": 10,
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            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
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            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
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            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
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            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
            "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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            "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
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            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
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            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
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            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
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            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
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            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.404233,
      "confidence": 0.595767,
      "predicted_score": {
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      "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
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          "parent_config_id": "candidate-f4c3ec3952acc919",
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            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
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            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
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            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
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        "away": {
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.7233,
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        "recent_quality_blend": {
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        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
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        "adjusted_score": {
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  "score_evolution": [
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    },
    {
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      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260925_COL@CHW

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickCHW

Published scoreCOL 4 - 9 CHW

Final confidence72.3%

Calibrationraw 92.0% → blended 86.9%

Empirical signalhit rate 62.9% · weight 17.5% · n=35

H2H base featureNot available for this matchup · n=0

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 1.4592

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.7990225622717353-5.756673340712128	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-8	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-9	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-9	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-9	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-9	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHW",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 9,
    "confidence": 0.446024,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.723012,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.723012,
    "away_win_probability": 0.276988
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.446024,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHW wins 9-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 9
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 9,
    "predicted_score_text": "COL 4 - 9 CHW",
    "confidence": 0.723012,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.92,
    "sample_size": 35,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.6286,
    "empirical_weight": 0.175,
    "blended_confidence": 0.869005,
    "published_confidence": 0.723012,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": false,
    "sample_size": 0,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.7453,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.928,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 1.4592
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 8,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01529903011140245
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 8,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.015218403652255548
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 7,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.015036218752317585
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 7,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.014956977318832592
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 9,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.014664239359720476
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.016304589615384293,
      "1": 0.025196632068929515,
      "2": 0.036681365458841785,
      "3": 0.050305893937066734,
      "4": 0.06499240757124321,
      "5": 0.07910004981856512,
      "6": 0.09069038931584573,
      "7": 0.09795264166135936,
      "8": 0.09966471218287971,
      "9": 0.09552940183300433,
      "10": 0.08625873349009343,
      "11": 0.07337354014547567,
      "12": 0.05879579232345691,
      "13": 0.044383689212060394,
      "14": 0.03156246594480617,
      "15": 0.021144081923100584,
      "16": 0.01334372601770671,
      "17": 0.007932969360734909,
      "18": 0.0044428823712126895,
      "19": 0.0023440357482327158
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06832755969029787,
      "1": 0.10187424333865105,
      "2": 0.13319103285091233,
      "3": 0.15269600763337926,
      "4": 0.15350498462614834,
      "5": 0.13531918940007326,
      "6": 0.10460161682862518,
      "7": 0.07090216754816671,
      "8": 0.0421427364039517,
      "9": 0.02196484060656736,
      "10": 0.01003865398674512,
      "11": 0.004023138827485401,
      "12": 0.00141382825899658
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 9,
      "score_text": "COL 4 - 9 CHW",
      "winner": "CHW"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 9,
      "score_text": "COL 4 - 9 CHW",
      "winner": "CHW"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0595,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.928,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 9,
      "winner": "CHW",
      "model_winner": "CHW",
      "simulation_winner": "CHW",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "CHW",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "CHW",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 5,
      "simulation_margin": 5,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
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          {
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        "home_distribution": {
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "11": 0.004023138827485401,
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        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.7990225622717353,
      "home_runs": 5.756673340712128,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 9,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 9,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 9,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 9,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260925_HOU@OAK

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickHOU

Published scoreHOU 5 - 4 OAK

Final confidence53.9%

Calibrationraw 59.8% → blended 57.9%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.1% · weight 50.0% · n=692

H2H base featurehome net 1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.8479

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.658857225734885-4.438546231273523	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	6-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "HOU",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.078852,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.539426,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.460574,
    "away_win_probability": 0.539426
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.078852,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "HOU wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "HOU 5 - 4 OAK",
    "confidence": 0.5394261025,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.597999,
    "sample_size": 692,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5607,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.57935,
    "published_confidence": 0.539426,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.2,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0058,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0058,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.2075,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.18,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.8479
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  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01755232536968844
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.017314689855584806
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      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01679435671437361
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      {
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        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.0167062092164391
      },
      {
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        "probability": 0.016566983103880262
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04990178313939189,
      "1": 0.07533756291206016,
      "2": 0.10225939243387056,
      "3": 0.12479321899518589,
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      "5": 0.13506877491860605,
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      "13": 0.0026293983598728757
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    "away_distribution": {
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      "2": 0.08481287715557313,
      "3": 0.10687820434099529,
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      "5": 0.12819165544381986,
      "6": 0.12201213061743413,
      "7": 0.10575921864530531,
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "HOU 5 - 4 OAK",
      "winner": "HOU"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "HOU 5 - 4 OAK",
      "winner": "HOU"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.023,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.11,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "HOU",
      "model_winner": "HOU",
      "simulation_winner": "HOU",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "HOU",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "HOU",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.8479,
      "winner": "HOU",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "HOU",
    "display_confidence": 0.5394,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5934,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5394,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.8479,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.18,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.023,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.6667,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 7,
        "median": 11,
        "max": 13,
        "range": 6
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
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    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
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        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
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        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
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    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
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        "risk_tier": "low",
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    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
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      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-26T01:40:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.445431,
      "confidence": 0.554569,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 4,
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
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          "parameters": {
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            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
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      "confidence": 0.554569,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 4,
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      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
          "config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
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          "parent_config_id": "candidate-f4c3ec3952acc919",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-21T09:05:52.468019+00:00",
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            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
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            "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
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    },
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      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
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        "away": {
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        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
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    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
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      "rng_isolated": true,
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      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.658857225734885,
      "home_runs": 4.438546231273523,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260925_LAA@SEA

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickLAA

Published scoreLAA 4 - 3 SEA

Final confidence51.8%

Calibrationraw 57.8% → blended 56.7%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.6% · weight 50.0% · n=765

H2H base featurehome net 1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.1915

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.219275795822143-3.6499849370451876	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAA",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.036032,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.518016,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.481984,
    "away_win_probability": 0.518016
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.036032,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAA wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "LAA 4 - 3 SEA",
    "confidence": 0.51801626,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.578224,
    "sample_size": 765,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5556,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.566912,
    "published_confidence": 0.518016,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.2,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0058,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0058,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.2925,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.004,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.1915
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.025309438147978546
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02502257171946497
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02466559325279534
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02438602439780031
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.022571606970084864
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0749914590661312,
      "1": 0.11131501654834457,
      "2": 0.14361002024871286,
      "3": 0.16102924925690743,
      "4": 0.15693283828551158,
      "5": 0.1329266094160098,
      "6": 0.09785861426025998,
      "7": 0.06261454548725327,
      "8": 0.034820935908458577,
      "9": 0.016830409530372015,
      "10": 0.007070301992038888
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07185573387232927,
      "1": 0.10687961073926736,
      "2": 0.1387395555815372,
      "3": 0.15717292519696005,
      "4": 0.15539146977915638,
      "5": 0.13407524968392187,
      "6": 0.10095830620907562,
      "7": 0.0663448930785663,
      "8": 0.03804914854933896,
      "9": 0.019043834051560682,
      "10": 0.00831832406221615,
      "11": 0.0031709491960701503
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "LAA 4 - 3 SEA",
      "winner": "LAA"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "LAA 4 - 3 SEA",
      "winner": "LAA"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1068,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.066,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
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    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
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      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "LAA",
      "model_winner": "LAA",
      "simulation_winner": "LAA",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "LAA",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.1667,
        "draw_majority_team": "SEA",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
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      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
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  },
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    "internal_signal_score": 0.505,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.518,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
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      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.004,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.1068,
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      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.1667,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
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      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 6,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 7
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    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
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          "games": 159,
          "wins": 74,
          "losses": 85,
          "win_pct": 0.46540880503144655,
          "runs_scored": 644,
          "runs_allowed": 708,
          "run_differential": -64,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.4025157232704403,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "LAA",
          "games": 159,
          "wins": 61,
          "losses": 98,
          "win_pct": 0.3836477987421384,
          "runs_scored": 641,
          "runs_allowed": 732,
          "run_differential": -91,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.5723270440251572,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.1698,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0818,
        "quality_edge": 0.1915,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.2925,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 0.2925,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.004,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.1915
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.025309438147978546
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.02502257171946497
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.02466559325279534
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.02438602439780031
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 2,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.022571606970084864
          }
        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.0749914590661312,
          "1": 0.11131501654834457,
          "2": 0.14361002024871286,
          "3": 0.16102924925690743,
          "4": 0.15693283828551158,
          "5": 0.1329266094160098,
          "6": 0.09785861426025998,
          "7": 0.06261454548725327,
          "8": 0.034820935908458577,
          "9": 0.016830409530372015,
          "10": 0.007070301992038888
        },
        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.07185573387232927,
          "1": 0.10687961073926736,
          "2": 0.1387395555815372,
          "3": 0.15717292519696005,
          "4": 0.15539146977915638,
          "5": 0.13407524968392187,
          "6": 0.10095830620907562,
          "7": 0.0663448930785663,
          "8": 0.03804914854933896,
          "9": 0.019043834051560682,
          "10": 0.00831832406221615,
          "11": 0.0031709491960701503
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.219275795822143,
      "home_runs": 3.6499849370451876,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260925_LAD@SF

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickLAD

Published scoreLAD 6 - 2 SF

Final confidence56.6%

Calibrationraw 70.8% → blended 62.9%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.1% · weight 50.0% · n=225

H2H base featurehome net -21.0 · absolute 21.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -1.6281

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.309093746445778-3.2617839559142237	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-3	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-2	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-2	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-2	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-2	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "confidence": -0.13217,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.566085,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.433915,
    "away_win_probability": 0.566085
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.13217,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD wins 6-2",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 2
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "predicted_score_text": "LAD 6 - 2 SF",
    "confidence": 0.56608495,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.707507,
    "sample_size": 225,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5511,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.629303,
    "published_confidence": 0.566085,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -21.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 21.0,
    "home_average_margin": -4.2,
    "home_run_delta": -0.1212,
    "away_run_delta": 0.1212,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -2.0503,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.844,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -1.6281
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.021617409322024078
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02107832412217367
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02068439688621547
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02016857872951201
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.020105743242268933
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07869104693961267,
      "1": 0.11650075122911502,
      "2": 0.14912280570992986,
      "3": 0.1650332090768202,
      "4": 0.15791033722403067,
      "5": 0.1306356514502164,
      "6": 0.09343827403218008,
      "7": 0.057782967004837614,
      "8": 0.030894900883361526,
      "9": 0.014281890944736158,
      "10": 0.005708165505159845
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04343938324546503,
      "1": 0.06586512847369266,
      "2": 0.09056832894523185,
      "3": 0.11293955830289505,
      "4": 0.12772171273941635,
      "5": 0.13098823832457585,
      "6": 0.12182846928044673,
      "7": 0.10275765680636106,
      "8": 0.07860108047833068,
      "9": 0.05452450836519607,
      "10": 0.03430077394209542,
      "11": 0.019568836243371145,
      "12": 0.010124532931694182,
      "13": 0.0047504408447376,
      "14": 0.0020213510764902362
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "LAD 6 - 2 SF",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "LAD 6 - 2 SF",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0597,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.194,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "model_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "LAD",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "LAD",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 4,
      "simulation_margin": 4,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 2
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 2
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 4,
      "final_margin": 4,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.6281,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 2,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "LAD",
    "display_confidence": 0.5661,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.72,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5661,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 4,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.6281,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.844,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0597,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 6,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 8,
        "range": 2
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-24T09:06:53.755755+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
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        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
        "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
        "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
        "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
      }
    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
      "config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
      "config_hash": "sha256:53760a5ddffc6f180dee92a59d27889f1cdba857749a59d2378ee233c5952253",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-f4c3ec3952acc919",
      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:9ca63931a023e9b6f5e0ed6f872bef54d37bd4e9dc951e5e10b28553b15e3582"
    },
    "changes": [
      {
        "parameter": "confidence.base_cap",
        "old_value": 0.58,
        "new_value": 0.56,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "enhanced_shadow"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
      "enhanced_shadow"
    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T01:36:26.172738+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-26T02:15:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.422253,
      "confidence": 0.577747,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "total_runs": 8
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
          "config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
          "config_hash": "sha256:da7e1fc0092c8fca4370044eb58fa5897f6ef528f3b1de083f3bc7a60a53c065",
          "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-24T09:06:53.755755+00:00",
          "parameters": {
            "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
            "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
            "confidence.base_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
            "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
            "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
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    },
    {
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    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 2,
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    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260925_NYM@WAS

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickWAS

Published scoreNYM 4 - 5 WAS

Final confidence51.3%

Calibrationraw 50.0% → blended 52.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.1% · weight 50.0% · n=697

H2H base featurehome net -2.0 · absolute 2.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.3461

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.216824260876499-5.2557534348244035	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "WAS",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.025484,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.512742,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.512742,
    "away_win_probability": 0.487258
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.025484,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "WAS wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "NYM 4 - 5 WAS",
    "confidence": 0.51274201,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.500403,
    "sample_size": 697,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5509,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.525652,
    "published_confidence": 0.512742,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -2.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.4,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0115,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0115,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.2956,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.44,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.3461
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.0214835361590743
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.020521009322820093
      },
      {
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        "probability": 0.020306104305884167
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      },
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        "probability": 0.01995202556696031
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.057662189749258096,
      "1": 0.0866021771574065,
      "2": 0.11573027397060394,
      "3": 0.13760862139787888,
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      "6": 0.11479542561456323,
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      "10": 0.01757478624086359,
      "11": 0.008209801335765531,
      "12": 0.003412367022706698
    },
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    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
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    "margin_widening_capped": false,
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          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.574033,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.983636,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": false,
          "magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
          "probability_after": 0.517636,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.517636
        },
        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": false,
          "min_starter_games": 17,
          "shrink_factor": 1.0
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 5,
        "sample_weight": 0.0577,
        "home_net_margin": -2.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
        "home_average_margin": -0.4,
        "home_run_delta": -0.0115,
        "away_run_delta": 0.0115,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": -1.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -1.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -3.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -1.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 4.0
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        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
          "h2h.history_limit": 5,
          "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
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        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": false,
        "home": {
          "team": "WAS",
          "games": 159,
          "wins": 75,
          "losses": 84,
          "win_pct": 0.4716981132075472,
          "runs_scored": 807,
          "runs_allowed": 798,
          "run_differential": 9,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.05660377358490566,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "NYM",
          "games": 159,
          "wins": 73,
          "losses": 86,
          "win_pct": 0.4591194968553459,
          "runs_scored": 682,
          "runs_allowed": 717,
          "run_differential": -35,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.22012578616352202,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.2767,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0126,
        "quality_edge": 0.3461,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.2956,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 0.2956,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.44,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.3461
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.0214835361590743
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.020521009322820093
          },
          {
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            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.020306104305884167
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          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 4,
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          {
            "home_runs": 4,
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.057662189749258096,
          "1": 0.0866021771574065,
          "2": 0.11573027397060394,
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          "5": 0.13705170559352345,
          "6": 0.11479542561456323,
          "7": 0.08555496386779218,
          "8": 0.05673438266178806,
          "9": 0.03347556738213934,
          "10": 0.01757478624086359,
          "11": 0.008209801335765531,
          "12": 0.003412367022706698
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        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.059868424148588215,
          "1": 0.08978056792344045,
          "2": 0.11943759387485021,
          "3": 0.14095286872315554,
          "4": 0.14756418674649383,
          "5": 0.13704468412152745,
          "6": 0.11290614924452042,
          "7": 0.08251771116133153,
          "8": 0.05349964826279301,
          "9": 0.030770096358277734,
          "10": 0.015699324338571834,
          "11": 0.0071057061450868104,
          "12": 0.0028530389513629615
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.216824260876499,
      "home_runs": 5.2557534348244035,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260925_PIT@DET

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickPIT

Published scorePIT 5 - 4 DET

Final confidence50.5%

Calibrationraw 46.0% → blended 50.2%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.3% · weight 50.0% · n=523

H2H base featurehome net -1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=3

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.0251

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.7153336510472723-5.048453219706147	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "PIT",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.01,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.505,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.495,
    "away_win_probability": 0.505
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.01,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "PIT wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "PIT 5 - 4 DET",
    "confidence": 0.505,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.4601,
    "sample_size": 523,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.543,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.50155,
    "published_confidence": 0.505,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 3,
    "sample_weight": 0.0409,
    "home_net_margin": -1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.333,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0068,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0068,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.2044,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.308,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.0251
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.020165295512702915
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01951703531267765
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.019281769926318203
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01882998761860547
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.018661912705708557
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0551145687363461,
      "1": 0.08291969989389227,
      "2": 0.11138758270551441,
      "3": 0.13359911647943049,
      "4": 0.14307315111465027,
      "5": 0.13680452045387717,
      "6": 0.1167966814126634,
      "7": 0.08903244655401985,
      "8": 0.06059738198419804,
      "9": 0.036825373879283946,
      "10": 0.019981505987337746,
      "11": 0.00968048284219688,
      "12": 0.004187487956589366
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05313629266449516,
      "1": 0.08005118685425801,
      "2": 0.10796984632716583,
      "3": 0.13037531606864838,
      "4": 0.14094395318478484,
      "5": 0.1364129828736201,
      "6": 0.11820154296040165,
      "7": 0.09169565749609052,
      "8": 0.06368432869220024,
      "9": 0.039598119734577455,
      "10": 0.022043204862124497,
      "11": 0.01098583551436156,
      "12": 0.0049017327672717225
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "PIT 5 - 4 DET",
      "winner": "PIT"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "PIT 5 - 4 DET",
      "winner": "PIT"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0627,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.4247,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "PIT",
      "model_winner": "PIT",
      "simulation_winner": "PIT",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "PIT",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "PIT",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.0251,
      "winner": "PIT",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "PIT",
    "display_confidence": 0.505,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6203,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.505,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.0251,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.308,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0627,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 8,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 1
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-24T09:06:53.755755+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
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        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
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        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
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        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
        "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
        "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
        "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
      }
    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
      "config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
      "config_hash": "sha256:53760a5ddffc6f180dee92a59d27889f1cdba857749a59d2378ee233c5952253",
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      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:9ca63931a023e9b6f5e0ed6f872bef54d37bd4e9dc951e5e10b28553b15e3582"
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    "changes": [
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        "parameter": "confidence.base_cap",
        "old_value": 0.58,
        "new_value": 0.56,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "enhanced_shadow"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-25T21:36:47.944998+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-25T22:40:00+00:00",
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    {
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    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260925_STL@MIL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickMIL

Published scoreSTL 4 - 5 MIL

Final confidence54.2%

Calibrationraw 63.0% → blended 59.2%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.4% · weight 50.0% · n=807

H2H base featurehome net 10.0 · absolute 10.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 1.297

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.302557082123973-4.814418718422804	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.084544,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.542272,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.542272,
    "away_win_probability": 0.457728
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.084544,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "STL 4 - 5 MIL",
    "confidence": 0.54227203,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.629601,
    "sample_size": 807,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5539,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.59175,
    "published_confidence": 0.542272,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 10.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 10.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0577,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0577,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.6572,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.628,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 1.297
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01954975966568399
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.019236645229298716
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      {
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        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.0187161066785954
      },
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        "blended_confidence": 0.59175
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      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.58,
        "final_confidence": 0.5585,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5585,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.985818,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 0.8,
        "calibration_sample_size": 807,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5539,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5527,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 1.297,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability",
          "season run-differential edge supports the pick"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 4,
            "home_runs": 5
          },
          "margin": 1,
          "probability_before": 0.558508,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.574033,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.985818,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": false,
          "magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
          "probability_after": 0.558508,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.558508
        },
        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": false,
          "min_starter_games": 20,
          "shrink_factor": 1.0
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 5,
        "sample_weight": 0.0577,
        "home_net_margin": 10.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 10.0,
        "home_average_margin": 2.0,
        "home_run_delta": 0.0577,
        "away_run_delta": -0.0577,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": 4.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -4.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 8.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
          }
        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
          "h2h.history_limit": 5,
          "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "home": {
          "team": "MIL",
          "games": 159,
          "wins": 100,
          "losses": 59,
          "win_pct": 0.6289308176100629,
          "runs_scored": 815,
          "runs_allowed": 608,
          "run_differential": 207,
          "run_differential_per_game": 1.3018867924528301,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "STL",
          "games": 159,
          "wins": 77,
          "losses": 82,
          "win_pct": 0.48427672955974843,
          "runs_scored": 710,
          "runs_allowed": 732,
          "run_differential": -22,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.13836477987421383,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 1.4403,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.1447,
        "quality_edge": 1.297,
        "season_quality_edge": 1.6572,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 1.6572,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.628,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": 1.297
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.5447,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": 0.5447,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": 1.297,
          "season_quality_edge": 1.6572,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 1.783,
          "home_runs": 6.741,
          "home_win_probability": 0.92
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.01954975966568399
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.019236645229298716
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          {
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            "away_runs": 3,
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            "away_runs": 3,
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
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          "2": 0.09331646246892544,
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          "4": 0.13000877672736497,
          "5": 0.13212492662589964,
          "6": 0.12152531888750913,
          "7": 0.10116230182459161,
          "8": 0.07621501842305357,
          "9": 0.051967561456174365,
          "10": 0.03206963674980345,
          "11": 0.017911240535921084,
          "12": 0.009053723243334102,
          "13": 0.0041418911973959294,
          "14": 0.0017149050566293688
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "1": 0.09046081228988125,
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          "6": 0.11248381498743543,
          "7": 0.08186485563762541,
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          "11": 0.006887567353270577,
          "12": 0.0027450014309293256
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.302557082123973,
      "home_runs": 4.814418718422804,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260925_TB@PHI

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickPHI

Published scoreTB 4 - 5 PHI

Final confidence53.5%

Calibrationraw 54.5% → blended 55.2%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.9% · weight 50.0% · n=777

H2H base featureNot available for this matchup · n=0

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.3461

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.305586808667761-5.091075971633991	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "PHI",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.069456,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.534728,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.534728,
    "away_win_probability": 0.465272
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.069456,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "PHI wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 10)",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "TB 4 - 5 PHI",
    "confidence": 0.5347276,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.544574,
    "sample_size": 777,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5586,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.551587,
    "published_confidence": 0.534728,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": false,
    "sample_size": 0,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.4182,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.212,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.3461
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.021992844724931133
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02166974976278027
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.020865101192465617
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02066206861084593
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.020558573812112155
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05639297909467745,
      "1": 0.08476922460065571,
      "2": 0.11357503047095635,
      "3": 0.13563100881982512,
      "4": 0.1443665575330821,
      "5": 0.13696376568880175,
      "6": 0.11581805144117163,
      "7": 0.08729277475545293,
      "8": 0.058642411586064085,
      "9": 0.03511371853542469,
      "10": 0.018740160413737522,
      "11": 0.008914587727973168,
      "12": 0.0037797293321773988
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06635016959839081,
      "1": 0.0990605900509077,
      "2": 0.13004170747773308,
      "3": 0.150102282225678,
      "4": 0.1523403002796641,
      "5": 0.13594561339558078,
      "6": 0.10666906036600156,
      "7": 0.07359268018052652,
      "8": 0.04464302861079972,
      "9": 0.023811982744425923,
      "10": 0.011167612807789402,
      "11": 0.004605194916645022,
      "12": 0.0016697773458576035
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "TB 4 - 5 PHI",
      "winner": "PHI"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "TB 4 - 5 PHI",
      "winner": "PHI"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0926,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.212,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "PHI",
      "model_winner": "PHI",
      "simulation_winner": "PHI",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "PHI",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "PHI",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.3461,
      "winner": "PHI",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "PHI",
    "display_confidence": 0.5347,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5906,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5347,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.3461,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.212,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0926,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.5,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 11,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 6
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
      "config_hash": "sha256:da7e1fc0092c8fca4370044eb58fa5897f6ef528f3b1de083f3bc7a60a53c065",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-24T09:06:53.755755+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
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        "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
        "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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    }
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    {
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    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
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    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
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  ]
}

20260925_TEX@MIN

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickMIN

Published scoreTEX 4 - 5 MIN

Final confidence54.2%

Calibrationraw 50.3% → blended 52.9%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.5% · weight 50.0% · n=701

H2H base featurehome net 18.0 · absolute 18.0 · n=3

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.1954

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.346525038132847-4.698770885514058	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIN",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.084524,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.542262,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.542262,
    "away_win_probability": 0.457738
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.084524,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIN wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "TEX 4 - 5 MIN",
    "confidence": 0.542262,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.502814,
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    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5549,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.528857,
    "published_confidence": 0.542262,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
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    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 3,
    "sample_weight": 0.0409,
    "home_net_margin": 18.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 18.0,
    "home_average_margin": 6.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.1227,
    "away_run_delta": -0.1227,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 10.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
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  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
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    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.1887,
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    "season_weight": 0.65,
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    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
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  "score_distribution": {
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        "blended_confidence": 0.528857
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      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.528857,
        "final_confidence": 0.5497,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5497,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.983727,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 0.5029,
        "calibration_sample_size": 701,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5549,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5535,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.1954,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 4,
            "home_runs": 5
          },
          "margin": 1,
          "probability_before": 0.54972,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.574033,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.983727,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": false,
          "magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
          "probability_after": 0.54972,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.54972
        },
        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": false,
          "min_starter_games": 26,
          "shrink_factor": 1.0
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 3,
        "sample_weight": 0.0409,
        "home_net_margin": 18.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 18.0,
        "home_average_margin": 6.0,
        "home_run_delta": 0.1227,
        "away_run_delta": -0.1227,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": 6.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 10.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 2.0
          }
        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
          "h2h.history_limit": 5,
          "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": false,
        "home": {
          "team": "MIN",
          "games": 159,
          "wins": 75,
          "losses": 84,
          "win_pct": 0.4716981132075472,
          "runs_scored": 721,
          "runs_allowed": 785,
          "run_differential": -64,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.4025157232704403,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "TEX",
          "games": 159,
          "wins": 79,
          "losses": 80,
          "win_pct": 0.4968553459119497,
          "runs_scored": 661,
          "runs_allowed": 701,
          "run_differential": -40,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.25157232704402516,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.1509,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.0252,
        "quality_edge": -0.1954,
        "season_quality_edge": -0.1887,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.1887,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.208,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.1954
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.0180177546808895
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.017654977867611027
          },
          {
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          },
          {
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            "away_runs": 4,
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
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          "2": 0.08901767156046338,
          "3": 0.11132161191908937,
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "3": 0.1266980292321072,
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          "7": 0.09413112686464174,
          "8": 0.06673379384150006,
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          "10": 0.024267049735708663,
          "11": 0.012447312342171427,
          "12": 0.005731692435786659,
          "13": 0.0023694025509884854
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.346525038132847,
      "home_runs": 4.698770885514058,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260926_ARI@SD

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickARI

Published scoreARI 5 - 4 SD

Final confidence53.4%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 54.1%

Empirical signalhit rate 57.2% · weight 50.0% · n=465

H2H base featurehome net -8.0 · absolute 8.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.0525

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.744599255176404-3.698830451855655	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "ARI",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.06849,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.534245,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.465755,
    "away_win_probability": 0.534245
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.06849,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "ARI wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "ARI 5 - 4 SD",
    "confidence": 0.5342450550000001,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 465,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.572,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.54105,
    "published_confidence": 0.534245,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -8.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 8.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.6,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0462,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0462,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.1281,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.088,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.0525
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01803379593889277
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01794868054256858
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.017932666842347355
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.017848028752252068
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.01635724048447301
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04858614807884196,
      "1": 0.07341661896536385,
      "2": 0.09991834810806084,
      "3": 0.12247996831960009,
      "4": 0.13522401909828316,
      "5": 0.13446571602504295,
      "6": 0.12043098886620138,
      "7": 0.09714800590381996,
      "8": 0.07058273508043446,
      "9": 0.04618830559300412,
      "10": 0.02722290906232822,
      "11": 0.014451269121562924,
      "12": 0.006909496478844359,
      "13": 0.0029754712986116774
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04682123222894069,
      "1": 0.07083116823872887,
      "2": 0.09673290600384894,
      "3": 0.1192593201479422,
      "4": 0.13273293208008533,
      "5": 0.13336237200423318,
      "6": 0.12096401655229817,
      "7": 0.09904837411213087,
      "8": 0.07321612962906868,
      "9": 0.04885786083663063,
      "10": 0.029432719623925963,
      "11": 0.016006434543198576,
      "12": 0.007858272359860361,
      "13": 0.003482794222376331,
      "14": 0.0013934674167312153
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "ARI 5 - 4 SD",
      "winner": "ARI"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "ARI 5 - 4 SD",
      "winner": "ARI"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.018,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.158,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "ARI",
      "model_winner": "ARI",
      "simulation_winner": "ARI",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 5,
        "published_winner": "ARI",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.8,
        "draw_majority_team": "ARI",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.0525,
      "winner": "ARI",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "ARI",
    "display_confidence": 0.5342,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5715,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5342,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.0525,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.088,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.018,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.8,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.2,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.4,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 6,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 3
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
      "config_hash": "sha256:da7e1fc0092c8fca4370044eb58fa5897f6ef528f3b1de083f3bc7a60a53c065",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-24T09:06:53.755755+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
        "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
        "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
        "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
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    },
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    },
    {
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    },
    {
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      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
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      "home_runs": 4,
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    }
  ]
}

20260926_ATL@MIA

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickATL

Published scoreATL 5 - 4 MIA

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 50.0% → blended 53.5%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.9% · weight 50.0% · n=353

H2H base featurehome net -16.0 · absolute 16.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.5032

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.388008272341073-3.7424839941122015	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "ATL",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.47,
    "away_win_probability": 0.53
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "ATL wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "ATL 5 - 4 MIA",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5005,
    "sample_size": 353,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5694,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.53495,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -16.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 16.0,
    "home_average_margin": -3.2,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0923,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0923,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      }
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            "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
      "confidence_calibration": {
        "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.5005,
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      "confidence_governor": {
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        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.53,
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        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5703,
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        "calibration_sample_size": 353,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5694,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.566,
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        "season_quality_edge": 0.5032,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 5,
            "home_runs": 4
          },
          "margin": -1,
          "probability_before": 0.429694,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.425967,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.968464,
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          "magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
          "probability_after": 0.429694,
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        "starter_experience": {
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          "min_starter_games": 15,
          "shrink_factor": 1.0
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
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        "sample_size": 5,
        "sample_weight": 0.0577,
        "home_net_margin": -16.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 16.0,
        "home_average_margin": -3.2,
        "home_run_delta": -0.0923,
        "away_run_delta": 0.0923,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": 3.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -8.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -3.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -2.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -6.0
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        "adaptive_parameters": {
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "home": {
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          "games": 160,
          "wins": 79,
          "losses": 81,
          "win_pct": 0.49375,
          "runs_scored": 707,
          "runs_allowed": 701,
          "run_differential": 6,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.0375,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "ATL",
          "games": 160,
          "wins": 93,
          "losses": 67,
          "win_pct": 0.58125,
          "runs_scored": 731,
          "runs_allowed": 618,
          "run_differential": 113,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.70625,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.6688,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.0875,
        "quality_edge": -0.5032,
        "season_quality_edge": -0.8,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
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          "recent_quality_edge": 0.048,
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          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "conflict",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.5032
        },
        "margin_adjustment": -0.2113,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": -0.2113,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": -0.5032,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.8,
          "recent_alignment": "conflict",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 5.089,
          "home_runs": 2.923,
          "home_win_probability": 0.3159
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 4,
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
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          "5": 0.13706908204392818,
          "6": 0.1143184353264038,
          "7": 0.0847685464132098,
          "8": 0.05588495396954374,
          "9": 0.03275644452460747,
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "1": 0.08435625639983495,
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          "7": 0.0876825292035473,
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          "10": 0.01901153733254394,
          "11": 0.009080704784192891,
          "12": 0.003867428937822902
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        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.388008272341073,
      "home_runs": 3.7424839941122015,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260926_CHC@BOS

Official result pending · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Official result pending

PickBOS

Published scoreCHC 4 - 5 BOS

Final confidence53.9%

Calibrationraw 56.5% → blended 56.1%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.6% · weight 50.0% · n=773

H2H base featureNot available for this matchup · n=0

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.4141

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.067047162434268-4.372164234874095	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "BOS",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.078322,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.539161,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.539161,
    "away_win_probability": 0.460839
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.078322,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "BOS wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "CHC 4 - 5 BOS",
    "confidence": 0.5391612,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.565085,
    "sample_size": 773,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5563,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.560693,
    "published_confidence": 0.539161,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": false,
    "sample_size": 0,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.4497,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.348,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.4141
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  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.021877714980082407
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02180144841689067
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02100981749150837
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.020936576452632884
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.020360419707339754
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.054409100278046324,
      "1": 0.08189766519653537,
      "2": 0.1101733570655604,
      "3": 0.13246060397059425,
      "4": 0.14233180756649885,
      "5": 0.13668544923137887,
      "6": 0.1173134184218084,
      "7": 0.08998667010005955,
      "8": 0.06168985628445198,
      "9": 0.0377967468145148,
      "10": 0.020696655477235985,
      "11": 0.010128636959237849,
      "12": 0.00443003263407748
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06869927251059584,
      "1": 0.10240223942495302,
      "2": 0.13377856585292025,
      "3": 0.15317341070585935,
      "4": 0.15370924710459338,
      "5": 0.1351874490738366,
      "6": 0.10420594982001857,
      "7": 0.07039931367072035,
      "8": 0.04168349246581549,
      "9": 0.021631146512603932,
      "10": 0.009838179540524307,
      "11": 0.00392165797554387,
      "12": 0.0013700753420151355
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CHC 4 - 5 BOS",
      "winner": "BOS"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CHC 4 - 5 BOS",
      "winner": "BOS"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.058,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.348,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "BOS",
      "model_winner": "BOS",
      "simulation_winner": "BOS",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 5,
        "published_winner": "BOS",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.4,
        "draw_majority_team": "CHC",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.4141,
      "winner": "BOS",
      "score_reviewed": {
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        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "BOS",
    "display_confidence": 0.5392,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5098,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5392,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.4141,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.348,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.058,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.4,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.4,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 5
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
      "config_hash": "sha256:da7e1fc0092c8fca4370044eb58fa5897f6ef528f3b1de083f3bc7a60a53c065",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-24T09:06:53.755755+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.base_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
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        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
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      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
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    },
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    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 4,
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    },
    {
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  ]
}

20260926_CIN@TOR

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickTOR

Published scoreCIN 3 - 5 TOR

Final confidence62.0%

Calibrationraw 72.6% → blended 64.4%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.2% · weight 50.0% · n=292

H2H base featurehome net 1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=1

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.4385

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.250620930043404-5.540654431737932	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TOR",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.239046,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.619523,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.619523,
    "away_win_probability": 0.380477
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.239046,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "TOR wins 5-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "CIN 3 - 5 TOR",
    "confidence": 0.619523,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.726013,
    "sample_size": 292,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5616,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.643806,
    "published_confidence": 0.619523,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
    "home_net_margin": 1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0083,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0083,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
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  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
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            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
      "confidence_calibration": {
        "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.726013,
        "sample_size": 292,
        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5616,
        "empirical_weight": 0.5,
        "blended_confidence": 0.643806
      },
      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.643806,
        "final_confidence": 0.6195,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.6195,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.962258,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 1.5,
        "calibration_sample_size": 292,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5616,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5581,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.4385,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 3,
            "home_runs": 5
          },
          "margin": 2,
          "probability_before": 0.619523,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.645539,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.962258,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": false,
          "magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
          "probability_after": 0.619523,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.619523
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        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": false,
          "min_starter_games": 19,
          "shrink_factor": 1.0
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 1,
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        "home_net_margin": 1.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
        "home_average_margin": 1.0,
        "home_run_delta": 0.0083,
        "away_run_delta": -0.0083,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
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        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": false,
        "home": {
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          "games": 160,
          "wins": 78,
          "losses": 82,
          "win_pct": 0.4875,
          "runs_scored": 642,
          "runs_allowed": 688,
          "run_differential": -46,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.2875,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "CIN",
          "games": 160,
          "wins": 74,
          "losses": 86,
          "win_pct": 0.4625,
          "runs_scored": 660,
          "runs_allowed": 820,
          "run_differential": -160,
          "run_differential_per_game": -1.0,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.7125,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.025,
        "quality_edge": 0.4385,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.75,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 0.75,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.14,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "conflict",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.4385
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
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        "home_distribution": {
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        "away_distribution": {
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        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.250620930043404,
      "home_runs": 5.540654431737932,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260926_CLE@KC

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickCLE

Published scoreCLE 6 - 5 KC

Final confidence56.0%

Calibrationraw 70.5% → blended 63.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.7% · weight 50.0% · n=616

H2H base featurehome net -8.0 · absolute 8.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.9447

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.049366601993854-4.670300834293231	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	6-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": -0.12,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.44,
    "away_win_probability": 0.56
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.12,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE wins 6-5",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "CLE 6 - 5 KC",
    "confidence": 0.56,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.70523,
    "sample_size": 616,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5666,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.635915,
    "published_confidence": 0.56,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -8.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 8.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.6,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0462,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0462,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -10.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.9062,
    "recent_quality_edge": -1.016,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.9447
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.01489839592462102
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.014540261388299775
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.014510453280705873
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01418269176349365
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.014161644289201717
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04359102554784401,
      "1": 0.06608828849060187,
      "2": 0.09084727251416246,
      "3": 0.1132294117583556,
      "4": 0.12795774529356252,
      "5": 0.13110941406729565,
      "6": 0.12180388594618137,
      "7": 0.10260024106864014,
      "8": 0.07836020946756997,
      "9": 0.05426287062061741,
      "10": 0.03406982570659096,
      "11": 0.01939532352751463,
      "12": 0.010011153367146272,
      "13": 0.004685232754657416,
      "14": 0.001988099869259802
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.027203818102535974,
      "1": 0.041706870744147986,
      "2": 0.05928515648082174,
      "3": 0.07813488110103692,
      "4": 0.0954782744192245,
      "5": 0.1081744729345978,
      "6": 0.11363330414224865,
      "7": 0.11067438127103496,
      "8": 0.09994226580323683,
      "9": 0.08367811729284656,
      "10": 0.06495838666578768,
      "11": 0.04675404392113401,
      "12": 0.031200657893066492,
      "13": 0.019304961656551062,
      "14": 0.01107477102547963,
      "15": 0.005890622459420496,
      "16": 0.0029050140868287903
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CLE 6 - 5 KC",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CLE 6 - 5 KC",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0587,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.086,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "model_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "CLE",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333,
        "draw_majority_team": "KC",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.9447,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CLE",
    "display_confidence": 0.56,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5762,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.9447,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 1.016,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0587,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.3333,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3333,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.6667,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 7,
        "median": 11,
        "max": 15,
        "range": 8
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
      "config_hash": "sha256:da7e1fc0092c8fca4370044eb58fa5897f6ef528f3b1de083f3bc7a60a53c065",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-24T09:06:53.755755+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
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        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
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        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
        "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
        "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
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    },
    {
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    },
    {
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    }
  ]
}

20260926_COL@CHW

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickCHW

Published scoreCOL 4 - 9 CHW

Final confidence69.8%

Calibrationraw 92.0% → blended 86.9%

Empirical signalhit rate 61.8% · weight 17.0% · n=34

H2H base featurehome net 5.0 · absolute 5.0 · n=1

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 1.5269

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.036785779737624-5.172559518600801	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-8	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-9	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-9	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-9	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-9	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHW",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 9,
    "confidence": 0.395538,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.697769,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.697769,
    "away_win_probability": 0.302231
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.395538,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHW wins 9-4 (Extra Innings - 11)",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 9
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 9,
    "predicted_score_text": "COL 4 - 9 CHW",
    "confidence": 0.697769,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
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            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
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            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
            "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
            "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
            "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
            "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
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        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.92,
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        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.6176,
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        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
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        "calibration_sample_size": 34,
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        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability",
          "season run-differential edge supports the pick"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
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          "published_score": {
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        "starter_experience": {
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            "500779": 10
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        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
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        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 1,
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        "home_net_margin": 5.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 5.0,
        "home_average_margin": 5.0,
        "home_run_delta": 0.0417,
        "away_run_delta": -0.0417,
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          {
            "home_margin": 5.0
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        "adaptive_parameters": {
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        "home": {
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          "games": 160,
          "wins": 83,
          "losses": 77,
          "win_pct": 0.51875,
          "runs_scored": 766,
          "runs_allowed": 709,
          "run_differential": 57,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.35625,
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        },
        "away": {
          "team": "COL",
          "games": 160,
          "wins": 57,
          "losses": 103,
          "win_pct": 0.35625,
          "runs_scored": 741,
          "runs_allowed": 934,
          "run_differential": -193,
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          "available": true
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 1.5625,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.1625,
        "quality_edge": 1.5269,
        "season_quality_edge": 1.8063,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
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          "recent_quality_edge": 1.008,
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          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
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        "margin_adjustment": 2.443,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
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          "cap": 4.0,
          "scale": 1.6,
          "quality_edge": 1.5269,
          "season_quality_edge": 1.8063,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": true,
          "method": "supported_large_edge_up_to_four_runs"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 1.337,
          "home_runs": 10.103,
          "home_win_probability": 0.92
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      },
      "score_distribution": {
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        "home_distribution": {
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        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
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      "home_runs": 5.172559518600801,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 9,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 9,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 9,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 9,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260926_HOU@OAK

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickHOU

Published scoreHOU 6 - 5 OAK

Final confidence52.3%

Calibrationraw 53.9% → blended 54.8%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.8% · weight 50.0% · n=787

H2H base featurehome net -3.0 · absolute 3.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.8708

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.36869333276001-4.6431565622053395	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	6-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "HOU",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": -0.04579,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.522895,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.477105,
    "away_win_probability": 0.522895
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.04579,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "HOU wins 6-5",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "HOU 6 - 5 OAK",
    "confidence": 0.52289458,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.538659,
    "sample_size": 787,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5578,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.54823,
    "published_confidence": 0.522895,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -3.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.6,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0173,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0173,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.1781,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.3,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.8708
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.015880305020020583
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.01541952807832275
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.015269921787645196
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.015068122664044503
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01494840117513054
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03897322171158254,
      "1": 0.05927245034460548,
      "2": 0.0822465585456707,
      "3": 0.10412640341850654,
      "4": 0.12027691516691238,
      "5": 0.12675992506189404,
      "6": 0.12188771809248154,
      "7": 0.10693409521488689,
      "8": 0.08559546028280388,
      "9": 0.06251202161333529,
      "10": 0.04165380084864542,
      "11": 0.025323516234157385,
      "12": 0.014046614395148028,
      "13": 0.007108821220311337,
      "14": 0.0032824778490586812
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.037673664041840804,
      "1": 0.057346823591476276,
      "2": 0.07978642786349215,
      "3": 0.10146045900082837,
      "4": 0.11792686977237932,
      "5": 0.12527859268034897,
      "6": 0.12164355628006042,
      "7": 0.10795667440956991,
      "8": 0.0875705412781383,
      "9": 0.06492541250038604,
      "10": 0.043996643767718065,
      "11": 0.027250377672528595,
      "12": 0.015426721894556397,
      "13": 0.007982205824466336,
      "14": 0.0037750294222101
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "HOU 6 - 5 OAK",
      "winner": "HOU"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "HOU 6 - 5 OAK",
      "winner": "HOU"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0392,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.23,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "HOU",
      "model_winner": "HOU",
      "simulation_winner": "HOU",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "HOU",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "HOU",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.8708,
      "winner": "HOU",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "HOU",
    "display_confidence": 0.5229,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6286,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5229,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.8708,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.3,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0392,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3333,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.1667,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 20,
        "range": 15
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
      "config_hash": "sha256:da7e1fc0092c8fca4370044eb58fa5897f6ef528f3b1de083f3bc7a60a53c065",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-24T09:06:53.755755+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
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      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260926_LAA@SEA

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickSEA

Published scoreLAA 4 - 5 SEA

Final confidence51.8%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 53.4%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.9% · weight 50.0% · n=707

H2H base featurehome net -2.0 · absolute 2.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.1596

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.970083822206354-4.698974425802275	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "SEA",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.036042,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.518021,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.518021,
    "away_win_probability": 0.481979
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.036042,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "SEA wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "LAA 4 - 5 SEA",
    "confidence": 0.5180213175,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 707,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5587,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5344,
    "published_confidence": 0.518021,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -2.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.4,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0115,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0115,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.2563,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.02,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.1596
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02257426120080997
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02204728932326133
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02179176748277193
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02128306208048449
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02068228589014084
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.062078206866095276,
      "1": 0.09295409953075344,
      "2": 0.12310107178245816,
      "3": 0.1441846481274884,
      "4": 0.1493619969353114,
      "5": 0.13684379277172584,
      "6": 0.11088530504611514,
      "7": 0.07946699491040504,
      "8": 0.05036901831890688,
      "9": 0.028236059264682093,
      "10": 0.013999372986092403,
      "11": 0.006138708147383689,
      "12": 0.0023807253125822875
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06451258961215141,
      "1": 0.09643853633014901,
      "2": 0.12707910531298816,
      "3": 0.1476097653729817,
      "4": 0.1511379177033022,
      "5": 0.1364109338774332,
      "6": 0.10852813326401499,
      "7": 0.07611195670364757,
      "8": 0.04705229857554568,
      "9": 0.025640483158079163,
      "10": 0.012316546990002083,
      "11": 0.005215177985768744,
      "12": 0.0019465551139359906
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "LAA 4 - 5 SEA",
      "winner": "SEA"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "LAA 4 - 5 SEA",
      "winner": "SEA"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0737,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.23,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "SEA",
      "model_winner": "SEA",
      "simulation_winner": "SEA",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "SEA",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "SEA",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.1596,
      "winner": "SEA",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "SEA",
    "display_confidence": 0.518,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6152,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.518,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.1596,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.02,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0737,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 8,
        "range": 3
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-24T09:06:53.755755+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
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        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
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        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
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        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.15,
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
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        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
        "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
        "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
        "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
      }
    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
      "config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
      "config_hash": "sha256:53760a5ddffc6f180dee92a59d27889f1cdba857749a59d2378ee233c5952253",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-f4c3ec3952acc919",
      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:9ca63931a023e9b6f5e0ed6f872bef54d37bd4e9dc951e5e10b28553b15e3582"
    },
    "changes": [
      {
        "parameter": "confidence.base_cap",
        "old_value": 0.58,
        "new_value": 0.56,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "enhanced_shadow"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
      "enhanced_shadow"
    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-27T01:36:07.138186+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-27T01:40:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.524943,
      "confidence": 0.524943,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "total_runs": 7
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
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          "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-24T09:06:53.755755+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
            "confidence.base_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
            "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
            "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
            "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
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            "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
            "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
            "confidence.floor": 0.505,
            "score.variance_multiplier": 2.15,
            "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
            "recent.window_games": 10,
            "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
            "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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            "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
            "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
            "simulation.allow_score": true,
            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
            "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
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            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
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            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
            "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
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            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
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            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
            "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
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            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
            "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
            "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
            "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.524943,
      "confidence": 0.524943,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "total_runs": 7
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
          "config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
          "config_hash": "sha256:53760a5ddffc6f180dee92a59d27889f1cdba857749a59d2378ee233c5952253",
          "parent_config_id": "candidate-f4c3ec3952acc919",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-21T09:05:52.468019+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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            "recent.window_games": 10,
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            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
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            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
            "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
            "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
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            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
            "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
            "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
            "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
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        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
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        "applied": true,
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        "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
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      "confidence_governor": {
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        "calibration_sample_size": 707,
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        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5572,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.1596,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
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          "published_score": {
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          "margin": 1,
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        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": true,
          "min_starter_games": 6,
          "per_starter_career_games": {
            "807739": 6,
            "696270": 21
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          "shrink_factor": 0.675,
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          "reason": "inexperienced starter (debut/thin history): confidence shrunk toward 0.5 by career-games factor; winner unchanged"
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 5,
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        "home_net_margin": -2.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
        "home_average_margin": -0.4,
        "home_run_delta": -0.0115,
        "away_run_delta": 0.0115,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": -2.0
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            "home_margin": -2.0
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          {
            "home_margin": 5.0
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": false,
        "home": {
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          "games": 160,
          "wins": 74,
          "losses": 86,
          "win_pct": 0.4625,
          "runs_scored": 649,
          "runs_allowed": 715,
          "run_differential": -66,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.4125,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "LAA",
          "games": 160,
          "wins": 62,
          "losses": 98,
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          "runs_scored": 648,
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          "run_differential": -89,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.55625,
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        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.1438,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.075,
        "quality_edge": 0.1596,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.2563,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
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          "recent_quality_edge": -0.02,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "conflict",
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        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "6": 0.10852813326401499,
          "7": 0.07611195670364757,
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          "11": 0.005215177985768744,
          "12": 0.0019465551139359906
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        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.970083822206354,
      "home_runs": 4.698974425802275,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260926_LAD@SF

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickLAD

Published scoreLAD 4 - 2 SF

Final confidence55.3%

Calibrationraw 61.9% → blended 58.9%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.8% · weight 50.0% · n=292

H2H base featurehome net -19.0 · absolute 19.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -1.6407

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.062260245426705-2.9268043622670565	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-3	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-2	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-2	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-2	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-2	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "confidence": -0.106948,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.553474,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.446526,
    "away_win_probability": 0.553474
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.106948,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD wins 4-2",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 2
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "predicted_score_text": "LAD 4 - 2 SF",
    "confidence": 0.5534743499999999,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.619065,
    "sample_size": 292,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5582,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.588632,
    "published_confidence": 0.553474,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -19.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 19.0,
    "home_average_margin": -3.8,
    "home_run_delta": -0.1096,
    "away_run_delta": 0.1096,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -2.0719,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.84,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -1.6407
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.027502141466107275
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.027324754845414745
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02636601713718198
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02619595842786839
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.024280974995940452
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.09511693550481244,
      "1": 0.1391618497342937,
      "2": 0.17191443929042818,
      "3": 0.17932231496445125,
      "4": 0.1579378194556346,
      "5": 0.11745398546860773,
      "6": 0.07375291626295905,
      "7": 0.03910393444910606,
      "8": 0.01750618583168421,
      "9": 0.006617476864556217,
      "10": 0.0021121421734665844
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06808124051857248,
      "1": 0.1015242009927863,
      "2": 0.1328009165916416,
      "3": 0.1523778836495145,
      "4": 0.15336708915206276,
      "5": 0.13540409067747033,
      "6": 0.10486263526310913,
      "7": 0.07123593399268578,
      "8": 0.04244894007317826,
      "9": 0.02218829600536214,
      "10": 0.010173500809013004,
      "11": 0.004091723416182939,
      "12": 0.0014435488584206692
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "LAD 4 - 2 SF",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "LAD 4 - 2 SF",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0175,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.19,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "model_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "LAD",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "LAD",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 2
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 2
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.6407,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 2,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "LAD",
    "display_confidence": 0.5535,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.7066,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5535,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.6407,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.84,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0175,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
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        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.06808124051857248,
          "1": 0.1015242009927863,
          "2": 0.1328009165916416,
          "3": 0.1523778836495145,
          "4": 0.15336708915206276,
          "5": 0.13540409067747033,
          "6": 0.10486263526310913,
          "7": 0.07123593399268578,
          "8": 0.04244894007317826,
          "9": 0.02218829600536214,
          "10": 0.010173500809013004,
          "11": 0.004091723416182939,
          "12": 0.0014435488584206692
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.062260245426705,
      "home_runs": 2.9268043622670565,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260926_NYM@WAS

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickWAS

Published scoreNYM 6 - 7 WAS

Final confidence50.6%

Calibrationraw 46.8% → blended 50.5%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.2% · weight 50.0% · n=535

H2H base featurehome net -5.0 · absolute 5.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.3536

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.15397140694852-4.710165821447881	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-7	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-7	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-7	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "WAS",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 7,
    "confidence": 0.012882,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.506441,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.506441,
    "away_win_probability": 0.493559
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.012882,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "WAS wins 7-6",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 7
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 7,
    "predicted_score_text": "NYM 6 - 7 WAS",
    "confidence": 0.5064410875,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.468452,
    "sample_size": 535,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5421,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.505276,
    "published_confidence": 0.506441,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -5.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 5.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0288,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0288,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.3156,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.424,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.3536
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.017648647162557214
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.017647250177868265
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.017332425728731476
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.017331053774658035
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01627121860575567
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04462036389899704,
      "1": 0.06760188945516278,
      "2": 0.09273446007802161,
      "3": 0.1151807885520235,
      "4": 0.1295315414436107,
      "5": 0.13189477959630952,
      "6": 0.12160075341766621,
      "7": 0.10150828995386697,
      "8": 0.0767226056418621,
      "9": 0.05250513297075402,
      "10": 0.03253394798725963,
      "11": 0.018252752285204135,
      "12": 0.00927206651014738,
      "13": 0.004264629464254882,
      "14": 0.00177599874485938
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04758884166953851,
      "1": 0.07195520718178232,
      "2": 0.09811573080238492,
      "3": 0.1206519593227498,
      "4": 0.13379794281381888,
      "5": 0.13380853447402882,
      "6": 0.12068061460010866,
      "7": 0.09815457194612387,
      "8": 0.0719950892811674,
      "9": 0.04762275729015756,
      "10": 0.028408317954862563,
      "11": 0.015282549965377363,
      "12": 0.0074142196773282956,
      "13": 0.0032438024390931226,
      "14": 0.0012798605814779713
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "score_text": "NYM 6 - 7 WAS",
      "winner": "WAS"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "score_text": "NYM 6 - 7 WAS",
      "winner": "WAS"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.017,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.214,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "winner": "WAS",
      "model_winner": "WAS",
      "simulation_winner": "WAS",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "WAS",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "WAS",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 7
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 7
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.3536,
      "winner": "WAS",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 7,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "WAS",
    "display_confidence": 0.5064,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5809,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5064,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.3536,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.424,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.017,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3333,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.1667,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 10,
        "max": 12,
        "range": 9
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-24T09:06:53.755755+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
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        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
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        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
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        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
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        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
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        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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      "config_hash": "sha256:53760a5ddffc6f180dee92a59d27889f1cdba857749a59d2378ee233c5952253",
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    "changes": [
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        "new_value": 0.56,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "enhanced_shadow"
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    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T15:36:22.803659+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-26T16:35:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.508915,
      "confidence": 0.508915,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "total_runs": 9
      },
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      "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "parameters": {
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            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
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            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
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            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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        }
      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
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      "confidence": 0.508915,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 6,
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      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
          "config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
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          "parent_config_id": "candidate-f4c3ec3952acc919",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-21T09:05:52.468019+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
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            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
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            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
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            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
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            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
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            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
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            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
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    },
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        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
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          "published_score": {
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        "starter_experience": {
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      "h2h_base_feature": {
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            "home_margin": 1.0
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      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
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        "away": {
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.2875,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0187,
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        "season_quality_edge": 0.3156,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
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          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
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        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
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      "score_distribution": {
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        "home_distribution": {
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        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.15397140694852,
      "home_runs": 4.710165821447881,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260926_PIT@DET

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickPIT

Published scorePIT 6 - 4 DET

Final confidence51.3%

Calibrationraw 49.0% → blended 52.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.2% · weight 50.0% · n=697

H2H base featurehome net 0.0 · absolute 0.0 · n=4

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.0805

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.781460179053906-2.7092315440183827	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-3	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "PIT",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.026674,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.513337,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.486663,
    "away_win_probability": 0.513337
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.026674,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "PIT wins 6-4",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "PIT 6 - 4 DET",
    "confidence": 0.51333735,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.489827,
    "sample_size": 697,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5624,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.526114,
    "published_confidence": 0.513337,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.225,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.188,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.0805
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.021251732544393952
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.020213408043470524
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.020110016951405126
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02000592405410092
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.019845006453339066
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.058977107156862565,
      "1": 0.08849769353490979,
      "2": 0.1179458167108024,
      "3": 0.13961601443502344,
      "4": 0.14678782476000188,
      "5": 0.13707142810821182,
      "6": 0.11368572736156705,
      "7": 0.08374657530301198,
      "8": 0.05479365513496946,
      "9": 0.031841652036134045,
      "10": 0.01643474675969841,
      "11": 0.007534120209021072,
      "12": 0.0030676384897860972
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0568140329921043,
      "1": 0.08537765794637749,
      "2": 0.11429183999327426,
      "3": 0.13629144029357074,
      "4": 0.14477857805400782,
      "5": 0.13700057878972596,
      "6": 0.11548427872411408,
      "7": 0.08671729050008867,
      "8": 0.05800573077944998,
      "9": 0.03456356053841957,
      "10": 0.018346296834493053,
      "11": 0.008674825080990099,
      "12": 0.0036538894733838334
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "PIT 6 - 4 DET",
      "winner": "PIT"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "PIT 6 - 4 DET",
      "winner": "PIT"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0004,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.188,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "PIT",
      "model_winner": "PIT",
      "simulation_winner": "PIT",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 4,
        "published_winner": "PIT",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "PIT",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
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      "model_score": {
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        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
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      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
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    "internal_signal_score": 0.5935,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
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    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
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        "range": 7
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    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
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        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.021251732544393952
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          {
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          {
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.058977107156862565,
          "1": 0.08849769353490979,
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          "3": 0.13961601443502344,
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          "6": 0.11368572736156705,
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          "8": 0.05479365513496946,
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "7": 0.08671729050008867,
          "8": 0.05800573077944998,
          "9": 0.03456356053841957,
          "10": 0.018346296834493053,
          "11": 0.008674825080990099,
          "12": 0.0036538894733838334
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        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.781460179053906,
      "home_runs": 2.7092315440183827,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260926_STL@MIL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickMIL

Published scoreSTL 4 - 5 MIL

Final confidence53.5%

Calibrationraw 58.6% → blended 57.4%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.2% · weight 50.0% · n=694

H2H base featurehome net 13.0 · absolute 13.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 1.4507

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.405095592518724-4.73569511007664	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.070888,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.535444,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.535444,
    "away_win_probability": 0.464556
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.070888,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "STL 4 - 5 MIL",
    "confidence": 0.5354436825,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5864,
    "sample_size": 694,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.562,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5742,
    "published_confidence": 0.535444,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 13.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 13.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.6,
    "home_run_delta": 0.075,
    "away_run_delta": -0.075,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.7063,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.976,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 1.4507
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.020825757469493236
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.020594257526547213
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      {
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        "probability": 0.020572940634448512
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      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02034425101343073
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.018944726513292136
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.049498693925751826,
      "1": 0.07474938200880432,
      "2": 0.1015440169876522,
      "3": 0.12408918707072732,
      "4": 0.13641006180312826,
      "5": 0.1348937221659772,
      "6": 0.11999687544342001,
      "7": 0.09602426763953185,
      "8": 0.06912337518274925,
      "9": 0.044761201416735154,
      "10": 0.026074224475584995,
      "11": 0.013663247393895508,
      "12": 0.006440644529857688,
      "13": 0.002731099956184336
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    "away_distribution": {
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      "2": 0.13090237726883464,
      "3": 0.1508168852246405,
      "4": 0.1526702443662088,
      "5": 0.13578782571725037,
      "6": 0.10611316490593604,
      "7": 0.07285841204270513,
      "8": 0.043953365564705485,
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      "11": 0.004439575399941329,
      "12": 0.0015961065139661799
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "STL 4 - 5 MIL",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "STL 4 - 5 MIL",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0046,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 1.186,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "model_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "MIL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "MIL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.4507,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "MIL",
    "display_confidence": 0.5354,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6523,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5354,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.4507,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.976,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0046,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 1,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 8,
        "range": 7
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
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    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
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    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-24T09:06:53.755755+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
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        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
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        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
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        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
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        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
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        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
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        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
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        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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      "config_hash": "sha256:53760a5ddffc6f180dee92a59d27889f1cdba857749a59d2378ee233c5952253",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-f4c3ec3952acc919",
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    "changes": [
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        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "enhanced_shadow"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T22:36:37.645325+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-26T23:10:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.549057,
      "confidence": 0.549057,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "total_runs": 8
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-24T09:06:53.755755+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
            "confidence.base_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
            "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
            "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
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            "confidence.floor": 0.505,
            "score.variance_multiplier": 2.15,
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            "recent.window_games": 10,
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            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
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            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
            "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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            "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
            "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
            "simulation.allow_score": true,
            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
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        }
      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.549057,
      "confidence": 0.549057,
      "predicted_score": {
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        "away_runs": 4,
        "total_runs": 8
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
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          "parent_config_id": "candidate-f4c3ec3952acc919",
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            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
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            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
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            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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    },
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        "starter_experience": {
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      },
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        "away": {
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 1.4813,
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        "recent_quality_blend": {
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        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
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        "adjusted_score": {
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  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
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      "home_runs": 4.73569511007664,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
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      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260926_TB@PHI

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickTB

Published scoreTB 4 - 2 PHI

Final confidence60.8%

Calibrationraw 67.2% → blended 62.3%

Empirical signalhit rate 57.4% · weight 50.0% · n=462

H2H base featurehome net -2.0 · absolute 2.0 · n=1

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.4479

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.723224253526409-4.273547417523234	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-2	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-2	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-2	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-2	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-2	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "confidence": -0.21513,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.607565,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.392435,
    "away_win_probability": 0.607565
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.21513,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB wins 4-2",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 2
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "predicted_score_text": "TB 4 - 2 PHI",
    "confidence": 0.607565,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.6725,
    "sample_size": 462,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5736,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.62305,
    "published_confidence": 0.607565,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
    "home_net_margin": -2.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
    "home_average_margin": -2.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0167,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0167,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.45,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.444,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.4479
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.029424694533238965
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02834782369755784
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.028317766465058694
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02728140645107781
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02706508331709843
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.11654530713558094,
      "1": 0.16782408556570202,
      "2": 0.1976687058579241,
      "3": 0.19043452151576304,
      "4": 0.15006436326796552,
      "5": 0.09672385365511897,
      "6": 0.05099337343507729,
      "7": 0.021989635278576232,
      "8": 0.007756154288291883
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06143683079838174,
      "1": 0.09203403377067901,
      "2": 0.12204290817236979,
      "3": 0.14325872343906731,
      "4": 0.14885863903205898,
      "5": 0.13692143730910886,
      "6": 0.11148419261950991,
      "7": 0.08035253354247618,
      "8": 0.051266101702421074,
      "9": 0.028953792184500678,
      "10": 0.014475215876918569,
      "11": 0.006406031707294634,
      "12": 0.002509559845213063
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "TB 4 - 2 PHI",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "TB 4 - 2 PHI",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0828,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.794,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
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    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "winner": "TB",
      "model_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "TB",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "TB",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 2
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 2
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
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      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 2,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
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    "display_confidence": 0.6076,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6239,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.6076,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
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      "final_margin": 2,
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      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.444,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0828,
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      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 1.0,
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      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 8,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 8,
        "range": 0
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    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
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        "away": {
          "team": "TB",
          "games": 160,
          "wins": 97,
          "losses": 63,
          "win_pct": 0.60625,
          "runs_scored": 721,
          "runs_allowed": 642,
          "run_differential": 79,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.49375,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.3563,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.0625,
        "quality_edge": -0.4479,
        "season_quality_edge": -0.45,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.45,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.444,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.4479
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 2,
            "away_runs": 4,
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          {
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          {
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.11654530713558094,
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          "2": 0.1976687058579241,
          "3": 0.19043452151576304,
          "4": 0.15006436326796552,
          "5": 0.09672385365511897,
          "6": 0.05099337343507729,
          "7": 0.021989635278576232,
          "8": 0.007756154288291883
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        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.06143683079838174,
          "1": 0.09203403377067901,
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          "3": 0.14325872343906731,
          "4": 0.14885863903205898,
          "5": 0.13692143730910886,
          "6": 0.11148419261950991,
          "7": 0.08035253354247618,
          "8": 0.051266101702421074,
          "9": 0.028953792184500678,
          "10": 0.014475215876918569,
          "11": 0.006406031707294634,
          "12": 0.002509559845213063
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        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.723224253526409,
      "home_runs": 4.273547417523234,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260926_TEX@MIN

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickMIN

Published scoreTEX 4 - 5 MIN

Final confidence51.0%

Calibrationraw 51.6% → blended 52.9%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.2% · weight 50.0% · n=535

H2H base featurehome net 26.0 · absolute 26.0 · n=4

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.0556

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.682733651414479-3.8662203911903976	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
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  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIN",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.019964,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.509982,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.509982,
    "away_win_probability": 0.490018
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.019964,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIN wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "TEX 4 - 5 MIN",
    "confidence": 0.50998155,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.516374,
    "sample_size": 535,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5421,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.529237,
    "published_confidence": 0.509982,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": 26.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 26.0,
    "home_average_margin": 6.5,
    "home_run_delta": 0.1625,
    "away_run_delta": -0.1625,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 10.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
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    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.0781,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.304,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.0556
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.020065926417066646
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01952625222548985
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      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.019151084998096483
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      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
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      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.018636015516660744
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05225386477913831,
      "1": 0.07876913931446108,
      "2": 0.1064325046089771,
      "3": 0.12890594991057908,
      "4": 0.13994331069430221,
      "5": 0.13617952767747163,
      "6": 0.1187823743730222,
      "7": 0.09286940863741383,
      "8": 0.06508394315667859,
      "9": 0.040884202739433974,
      "10": 0.023020656705595582,
      "11": 0.011618776105628193,
      "12": 0.005256341297298221
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    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.055418150897595796,
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      "3": 0.134085268571148,
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      "5": 0.1368488776139567,
      "6": 0.11656913442074517,
      "7": 0.0886204736351373,
      "8": 0.06013021065253792,
      "9": 0.03641325874419708,
      "10": 0.019680427696401555,
      "11": 0.00949331039405321,
      "12": 0.0040870409834697415
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "TEX 4 - 5 MIN",
      "winner": "MIN"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "TEX 4 - 5 MIN",
      "winner": "MIN"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0525,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.654,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "MIN",
      "model_winner": "MIN",
      "simulation_winner": "MIN",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "MIN",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "MIN",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
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        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
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    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
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      "score_reviewed": {
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        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "MIN",
    "display_confidence": 0.51,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.602,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.51,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0556,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.304,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0525,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 4
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
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        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
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        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
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    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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        "risk_tier": "low",
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    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T19:46:30.951534+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-26T20:10:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.511743,
      "confidence": 0.511743,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "total_runs": 8
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "parameters": {
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            "recent.window_games": 10,
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            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
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    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
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        "away": {
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  "score_evolution": [
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      "stage": "historical_ml",
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    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
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    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260927_ARI@SD

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickARI

Published scoreARI 6 - 4 SD

Final confidence51.1%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 53.2%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.4% · weight 50.0% · n=681

H2H base featurehome net -1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.218

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.37346458304591-3.560109137438682	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "ARI",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.02163,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.510815,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.489185,
    "away_win_probability": 0.510815
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.02163,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "ARI wins 6-4",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "ARI 6 - 4 SD",
    "confidence": 0.5108153999999999,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 681,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5536,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.53185,
    "published_confidence": 0.510815,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.2,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0058,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0058,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.1739,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.3,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.218
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.018788937777961208
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01841548708876178
      },
      {
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        "probability": 0.018213197731838507
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        "away_runs": 5,
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        "probability": 0.017438993284560795
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05438607200724093,
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      "2": 0.10708620943737558,
      "3": 0.1282363674218316,
      "4": 0.13816308596745053,
      "5": 0.13392942345670128,
      "6": 0.11680545626580846,
      "7": 0.09165442088787944,
      "8": 0.06470634392801054,
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      "11": 0.012076640365850828,
      "12": 0.005586659518557123,
      "13": 0.0023252059782004238
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.052490155300874176,
      "1": 0.07774674338896906,
      "2": 0.10386176863950734,
      "3": 0.12514064220362323,
      "4": 0.13599101124874732,
      "5": 0.1332880411566678,
      "6": 0.11782605200179402,
      "7": 0.09394217800686316,
      "8": 0.06755369085737498,
      "9": 0.04381337387829081,
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      "11": 0.013521641075198397,
      "12": 0.006434199078549912,
      "13": 0.002761396327831488
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "ARI 6 - 4 SD",
      "winner": "ARI"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "ARI 6 - 4 SD",
      "winner": "ARI"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0503,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.37,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
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    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
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      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "ARI",
      "model_winner": "ARI",
      "simulation_winner": "ARI",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 4,
        "published_winner": "ARI",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "ARI",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
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      "model_score": {
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      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
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      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
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  },
  "decision_profile": {
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    "internal_signal_score": 0.6086,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
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    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
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      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0503,
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      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.25,
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      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 8,
        "range": 3
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    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
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        "home": {
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          "games": 161,
          "wins": 90,
          "losses": 71,
          "win_pct": 0.5590062111801242,
          "runs_scored": 713,
          "runs_allowed": 677,
          "run_differential": 36,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.2236024844720497,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "ARI",
          "games": 161,
          "wins": 86,
          "losses": 75,
          "win_pct": 0.5341614906832298,
          "runs_scored": 735,
          "runs_allowed": 721,
          "run_differential": 14,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.08695652173913043,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.1366,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0248,
        "quality_edge": 0.218,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.1739,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 0.1739,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.3,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.218
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 4,
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        "home_distribution": {
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        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
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      "away_runs": 4.37346458304591,
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      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260927_ATL@MIA

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickMIA

Published scoreATL 4 - 5 MIA

Final confidence50.5%

Calibrationraw 53.5% → blended 53.9%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.4% · weight 50.0% · n=575

H2H base featurehome net -15.0 · absolute 15.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.6486

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.345531559741641-4.250665726347227	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIA",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.01,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.505,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.505,
    "away_win_probability": 0.495
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.01,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIA wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "ATL 4 - 5 MIA",
    "confidence": 0.505,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.534653,
    "sample_size": 575,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5443,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.539476,
    "published_confidence": 0.505,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -15.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 15.0,
    "home_average_margin": -3.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0865,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0865,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.8665,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.244,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.6486
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  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01879252567582952
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      {
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        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01834968276533369
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      },
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        "away_runs": 3,
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05313747959369345,
      "1": 0.07867257179407998,
      "2": 0.10496656774399866,
      "3": 0.12620713232480718,
      "4": 0.1367483371335385,
      "5": 0.13352588408670993,
      "6": 0.11749357633285612,
      "7": 0.09316827130280064,
      "8": 0.06657745726759093,
      "9": 0.04287376514288838,
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      "11": 0.013011765379481434,
      "12": 0.006132201298568239,
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    "away_distribution": {
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      "3": 0.12717027984513807,
      "4": 0.13742416229513713,
      "5": 0.1337254902166993,
      "6": 0.11717606999664779,
      "7": 0.09245646539383538,
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      "11": 0.012562237796326496,
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      "13": 0.0024687302926780855
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "ATL 4 - 5 MIA",
      "winner": "MIA"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "ATL 4 - 5 MIA",
      "winner": "MIA"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.068,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.454,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "MIA",
      "model_winner": "MIA",
      "simulation_winner": "MIA",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "MIA",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
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        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
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        "home_runs": 5
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    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
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      "winner": "MIA",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "MIA",
    "display_confidence": 0.505,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5292,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.505,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.6486,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.244,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.068,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 7,
        "range": 2
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-27T09:06:54.240008+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
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        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
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        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
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        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
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        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
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        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
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        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
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    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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        "risk_tier": "low",
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    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-27T18:49:29.731064+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-27T19:10:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.505,
      "confidence": 0.505,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "total_runs": 9
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "parameters": {
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    {
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    },
    {
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    },
    {
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    },
    {
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    },
    {
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  ]
}

20260927_BAL@NYY

Official result pending · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Official result pending

PickNYY

Published scoreBAL 5 - 6 NYY

Final confidence52.0%

Calibrationraw 58.9% → blended 57.3%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.8% · weight 50.0% · n=800

H2H base featurehome net 4.0 · absolute 4.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.6441

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.520310114274014-4.344378807949707	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail, season_quality_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.039092,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.519546,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.519546,
    "away_win_probability": 0.480454
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.039092,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY wins 6-5",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "BAL 5 - 6 NYY",
    "confidence": 0.5195463705,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
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    "raw_confidence": 0.589259,
    "sample_size": 800,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5575,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.57338,
    "published_confidence": 0.519546,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
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    "available": true,
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    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 4.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 4.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.8,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0231,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0231,
    "evidence": [
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        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
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        "home_margin": -8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
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    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
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  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.118,
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    "season_weight": 0.65,
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    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
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  "score_distribution": {
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    "home_distribution": {
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          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 5,
            "home_runs": 6
          },
          "margin": 1,
          "probability_before": 0.560286,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.574033,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.985697,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": false,
          "magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
          "probability_after": 0.560286,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.560286
        },
        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": true,
          "min_starter_games": 6,
          "per_starter_career_games": {
            "695684": 6,
            "669358": 31
          },
          "shrink_factor": 0.675,
          "probability_before": 0.560286,
          "probability_after": 0.540693,
          "reason": "inexperienced starter (debut/thin history): confidence shrunk toward 0.5 by career-games factor; winner unchanged"
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 5,
        "sample_weight": 0.0577,
        "home_net_margin": 4.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 4.0,
        "home_average_margin": 0.8,
        "home_run_delta": 0.0231,
        "away_run_delta": -0.0231,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": 3.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -8.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 5.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 2.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 2.0
          }
        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
          "h2h.history_limit": 5,
          "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "home": {
          "team": "NYY",
          "games": 161,
          "wins": 93,
          "losses": 68,
          "win_pct": 0.577639751552795,
          "runs_scored": 739,
          "runs_allowed": 601,
          "run_differential": 138,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.8571428571428571,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "BAL",
          "games": 161,
          "wins": 79,
          "losses": 82,
          "win_pct": 0.4906832298136646,
          "runs_scored": 718,
          "runs_allowed": 739,
          "run_differential": -21,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.13043478260869565,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.9876,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.087,
        "quality_edge": 0.6441,
        "season_quality_edge": 1.118,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 1.118,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.236,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "conflict",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.6441
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.2705,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": 0.2705,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": 0.6441,
          "season_quality_edge": 1.118,
          "recent_alignment": "conflict",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 5.221,
          "home_runs": 4.42,
          "home_win_probability": 0.4319
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.016132814980602133
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 6,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.016005813082268006
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.01599668223864442
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 6,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.015870752014204455
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.01492078540809602
          }
        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.03473965369816676,
          "1": 0.0529843337639634,
          "2": 0.07415126932130324,
          "3": 0.09522233361378148,
          "4": 0.11220395628938293,
          "5": 0.12131839024546172,
          "6": 0.12036333894892483,
          "7": 0.10957486228522305,
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          "10": 0.04934643323753426,
          "11": 0.03184703094207129,
          "12": 0.018859546757100616,
          "13": 0.01024808388809558,
          "14": 0.00510979187224015,
          "15": 0.0023378296886583613
        },
        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.04620377424546173,
          "1": 0.06992615401078313,
          "2": 0.09561616987855155,
          "3": 0.11812791952913165,
          "4": 0.13185702683887057,
          "5": 0.13297913818309692,
          "6": 0.12116948461746994,
          "7": 0.09975450520003928,
          "8": 0.07419955290300852,
          "9": 0.04986543012618403,
          "10": 0.03027801237145101,
          "11": 0.0166105749888376,
          "12": 0.008233253391939458,
          "13": 0.003687124555170227,
          "14": 0.0014918791600041774
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.520310114274014,
      "home_runs": 4.344378807949707,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail, season_quality_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260927_CHC@BOS

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickCHC

Published scoreCHC 4 - 3 BOS

Final confidence50.5%

Calibrationraw 46.0% → blended 50.1%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.1% · weight 50.0% · n=543

H2H base featurehome net 3.0 · absolute 3.0 · n=2

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.2607

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.9923887695800966-4.516311014594185	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHC",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.010298,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.505149,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.494851,
    "away_win_probability": 0.505149
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.010298,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHC wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "CHC 4 - 3 BOS",
    "confidence": 0.5051492575,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.4601,
    "sample_size": 543,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5414,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.50075,
    "published_confidence": 0.505149,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 2,
    "sample_weight": 0.03,
    "home_net_margin": 3.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.5,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0225,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0225,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.3882,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.024,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.2607
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.029383700649558718
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02778001810339291
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.02741811341741829
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02710160893474656
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.026608606813468372
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.09172854398067469,
      "1": 0.13237168861944973,
      "2": 0.1635412816131467,
      "3": 0.17298217894893925,
      "4": 0.15664517006500592,
      "5": 0.12144351604917995,
      "6": 0.08060710710699964,
      "7": 0.045805119074394954,
      "8": 0.022284165566779278,
      "9": 0.009281548006219121,
      "10": 0.003309680969210848
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0879746086753731,
      "1": 0.1272878479517881,
      "2": 0.15850253236497586,
      "3": 0.16986547879150127,
      "4": 0.15667283820460137,
      "5": 0.12436608278195374,
      "6": 0.08496300432101335,
      "7": 0.04995482331988761,
      "8": 0.025278113226768803,
      "9": 0.01100858609825407,
      "10": 0.004126084263882452
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "CHC 4 - 3 BOS",
      "winner": "CHC"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "CHC 4 - 3 BOS",
      "winner": "CHC"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0533,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.326,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "CHC",
      "model_winner": "CHC",
      "simulation_winner": "CHC",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "CHC",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "CHC",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.2607,
      "winner": "CHC",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CHC",
    "display_confidence": 0.5051,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6207,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5051,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.2607,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.024,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0533,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3333,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 7,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 8,
        "range": 1
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-8133e99fc8d4e4c7",
      "config_hash": "sha256:1ad22b058ac7f786856b2afec11660ade914953b5b660a1d45855a0be03d5ccc",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-27T09:06:54.240008+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.25,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
        "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
        "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
        "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
      }
    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
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    },
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      "away_runs": 4,
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    },
    {
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    },
    {
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      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
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  ]
}

20260927_CIN@TOR

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickTOR

Published scoreCIN 4 - 5 TOR

Final confidence51.2%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 53.3%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.7% · weight 50.0% · n=778

H2H base featurehome net -3.0 · absolute 3.0 · n=2

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.3033

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.197209789573096-4.619419560292573	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TOR",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.023182,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.511591,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.511591,
    "away_win_probability": 0.488409
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.023182,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "TOR wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "CIN 4 - 5 TOR",
    "confidence": 0.511590634,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 778,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5566,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.53335,
    "published_confidence": 0.511591,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 2,
    "sample_weight": 0.03,
    "home_net_margin": -3.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.5,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0225,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0225,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
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        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.6863,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.408,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
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    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
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  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
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        "probability": 0.019257563954809338
      },
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        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
        "sample_size": 778,
        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5566,
        "empirical_weight": 0.5,
        "blended_confidence": 0.53335
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      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.53,
        "final_confidence": 0.5213,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5213,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.985302,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 0.1,
        "calibration_sample_size": 778,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5566,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5553,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.3033,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 4,
            "home_runs": 5
          },
          "margin": 1,
          "probability_before": 0.521275,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.574033,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.985302,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": false,
          "magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
          "probability_after": 0.521275,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.521275
        },
        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": true,
          "min_starter_games": 11,
          "per_starter_career_games": {
            "453286": 17,
            "682227": 11
          },
          "shrink_factor": 0.9458,
          "probability_before": 0.521275,
          "probability_after": 0.520123,
          "reason": "inexperienced starter (debut/thin history): confidence shrunk toward 0.5 by career-games factor; winner unchanged"
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 2,
        "sample_weight": 0.03,
        "home_net_margin": -3.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
        "home_average_margin": -1.5,
        "home_run_delta": -0.0225,
        "away_run_delta": 0.0225,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": -4.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
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        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
          "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": false,
        "home": {
          "team": "TOR",
          "games": 161,
          "wins": 78,
          "losses": 83,
          "win_pct": 0.484472049689441,
          "runs_scored": 643,
          "runs_allowed": 693,
          "run_differential": -50,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.3105590062111801,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "CIN",
          "games": 161,
          "wins": 75,
          "losses": 86,
          "win_pct": 0.4658385093167702,
          "runs_scored": 665,
          "runs_allowed": 821,
          "run_differential": -156,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.968944099378882,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.6584,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0186,
        "quality_edge": 0.3033,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.6863,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 0.6863,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.408,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "conflict",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.3033
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.020031794224121123
          },
          {
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            "away_runs": 4,
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          {
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            "away_runs": 3,
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          },
          {
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            "away_runs": 5,
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
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          "1": 0.07943580219567607,
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          "3": 0.12967221958003092,
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          "9": 0.04021181483199406,
          "10": 0.02250795891152577,
          "11": 0.011285674008321886,
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "1": 0.082275492478713,
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          "3": 0.13288279403561243,
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          "7": 0.08963455227883542,
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          "10": 0.020429812878883135,
          "11": 0.009960834648961267,
          "12": 0.00433888281897495
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.197209789573096,
      "home_runs": 4.619419560292573,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260927_CLE@KC

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickCLE

Published scoreCLE 6 - 4 KC

Final confidence56.0%

Calibrationraw 90.9% → blended 73.4%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.0% · weight 50.0% · n=293

H2H base featurehome net -11.0 · absolute 11.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -1.0963

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.616792826983626-3.5910432844055933	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	6-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.12,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.44,
    "away_win_probability": 0.56
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.12,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE wins 6-4",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "CLE 6 - 4 KC",
    "confidence": 0.56,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.909286,
    "sample_size": 293,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5597,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.734493,
    "published_confidence": 0.56,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -11.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 11.0,
    "home_average_margin": -2.2,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0635,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0635,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -10.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.9845,
    "recent_quality_edge": -1.304,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -1.0963
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.015994218656248508
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.01588013305600087
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.015528817648898347
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.01541805172024083
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.015027899452593833
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06433843033623264,
      "1": 0.09456884162445255,
      "2": 0.12346428748350588,
      "3": 0.14316943673155677,
      "4": 0.14746024634650184,
      "5": 0.134901031588968,
      "6": 0.10961532181999464,
      "7": 0.07911210360178365,
      "8": 0.05071428172265698,
      "9": 0.028875751917359013,
      "10": 0.014603333450518294,
      "11": 0.006559736263846264,
      "12": 0.00261719711262357
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.026320551214493636,
      "1": 0.0396486066546728,
      "2": 0.05571693773903036,
      "3": 0.07304204236234586,
      "4": 0.0893274501038506,
      "5": 0.10191153090359892,
      "6": 0.10846461370114166,
      "7": 0.10769094348781812,
      "8": 0.09974626663402815,
      "9": 0.08618674460504351,
      "10": 0.06947213797931326,
      "11": 0.052240486325978316,
      "12": 0.03664629876953908,
      "13": 0.02398166789353912,
      "14": 0.014640469716201053,
      "15": 0.008337906035261224,
      "16": 0.00442981247801881,
      "17": 0.0021955333961254345
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "CLE 6 - 4 KC",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "CLE 6 - 4 KC",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.028,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.374,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "model_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "CLE",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "CLE",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.0963,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CLE",
    "display_confidence": 0.56,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.7085,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.0963,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 1.304,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.028,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.3333,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 6,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 5
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-8133e99fc8d4e4c7",
      "config_hash": "sha256:1ad22b058ac7f786856b2afec11660ade914953b5b660a1d45855a0be03d5ccc",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-27T09:06:54.240008+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.25,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
        "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
        "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
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    },
    {
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    },
    {
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    }
  ]
}

20260927_COL@CHW

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickCHW

Published scoreCOL 5 - 8 CHW

Final confidence56.0%

Calibrationraw 82.9% → blended 69.1%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.3% · weight 50.0% · n=237

H2H base featurehome net 2.0 · absolute 2.0 · n=2

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 1.4935

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.191156896049202-4.971862471537651	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-8	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-8	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-8	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-8	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-8	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHW",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 8,
    "confidence": 0.12,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.56,
    "away_win_probability": 0.44
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.12,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHW wins 8-5",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 8
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 8,
    "predicted_score_text": "COL 5 - 8 CHW",
    "confidence": 0.56,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.828766,
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            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
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            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
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            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
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            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
            "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
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            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
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        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
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          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability",
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          "run_differential_per_game": 0.33540372670807456,
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        "away": {
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 1.5155,
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        "margin_adjustment": 0.6273,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
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          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 2.863,
          "home_runs": 8.9,
          "home_win_probability": 0.92
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      },
      "score_distribution": {
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        "home_distribution": {
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        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.191156896049202,
      "home_runs": 4.971862471537651,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260927_HOU@OAK

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickHOU

Published scoreHOU 8 - 6 OAK

Final confidence56.0%

Calibrationraw 73.5% → blended 64.0%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.6% · weight 50.0% · n=229

H2H base featurehome net -10.0 · absolute 10.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -1.0519

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.6495941785803-4.142746491388293	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	6-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	8-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	8-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	8-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	8-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	8-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "HOU",
    "away_runs": 8,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": -0.12,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.44,
    "away_win_probability": 0.56
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.12,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "HOU wins 8-6",
    "away_runs": 8,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 8,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "HOU 8 - 6 OAK",
    "confidence": 0.56,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.734518,
    "sample_size": 229,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5459,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.640209,
    "published_confidence": 0.56,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -10.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 10.0,
    "home_average_margin": -2.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0577,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0577,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -11.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.3168,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.56,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -1.0519
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 8,
        "probability": 0.01153269520089576
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.011495033184392293
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 8,
        "probability": 0.011446102783123939
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.011408723549180004
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 9,
        "probability": 0.010909499857883686
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.033903175156965636,
      "1": 0.05081716729473839,
      "2": 0.07035276169147696,
      "3": 0.08996062558215581,
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      "11": 0.03683369377561705,
      "12": 0.02304210536659606,
      "13": 0.013313727446468231,
      "14": 0.007105224170083437,
      "15": 0.0035023256573156105,
      "16": 0.0015945417160147626
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.018530723809302325,
      "1": 0.028063308721195487,
      "2": 0.04007179589938139,
      "3": 0.053950090982407835,
      "4": 0.06848555793308164,
      "5": 0.08197081572828964,
      "6": 0.09250665082755395,
      "7": 0.09843285924940709,
      "8": 0.0987553620129979,
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      "11": 0.07007177064534462,
      "12": 0.05556194556819272,
      "13": 0.04153988018290249,
      "14": 0.02928238702430968,
      "15": 0.019462613365843408,
      "16": 0.012196894748438264,
      "17": 0.007206938881462074,
      "18": 0.004015187622928967,
      "19": 0.0021091831388140286,
      "20": 0.0010446629198551751
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "HOU 8 - 6 OAK",
      "winner": "HOU"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "HOU 8 - 6 OAK",
      "winner": "HOU"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0633,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.49,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "HOU",
      "model_winner": "HOU",
      "simulation_winner": "HOU",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "HOU",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 8,
        "home_runs": 6
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 8,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.0519,
      "winner": "HOU",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 8,
        "home_runs": 6,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "HOU",
    "display_confidence": 0.56,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6057,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.0519,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.56,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0633,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.5,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 8,
        "median": 14,
        "max": 14,
        "range": 6
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-8133e99fc8d4e4c7",
      "config_hash": "sha256:1ad22b058ac7f786856b2afec11660ade914953b5b660a1d45855a0be03d5ccc",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-27T09:06:54.240008+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.25,
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      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260927_LAA@SEA

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickSEA

Published scoreLAA 3 - 5 SEA

Final confidence56.0%

Calibrationraw 56.4% → blended 55.8%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.2% · weight 50.0% · n=279

H2H base featurehome net 4.0 · absolute 4.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.3159

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.6176926855865745-5.219393250782495	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "SEA",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.12,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.56,
    "away_win_probability": 0.44
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.12,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "SEA wins 5-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "LAA 3 - 5 SEA",
    "confidence": 0.56,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5636,
    "sample_size": 279,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.552,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5578,
    "published_confidence": 0.56,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 4.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 4.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.8,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0231,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0231,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.3137,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.32,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.3159
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.018247406535588213
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.017925988138853925
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01744690816043522
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01713959011839124
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.017118316654488614
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04590000506874616,
      "1": 0.068272125287155,
      "2": 0.09236255751903003,
      "3": 0.11365022924547595,
      "4": 0.12719396937429897,
      "5": 0.12947459576955728,
      "6": 0.11987384768291737,
      "7": 0.10094531454014366,
      "8": 0.07731606176164099,
      "9": 0.05386108794931847,
      "10": 0.03412733356391707,
      "11": 0.01966760292514507,
      "12": 0.010309137791734327,
      "13": 0.004914904637845052,
      "14": 0.002131226883074605
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05684858055351045,
      "1": 0.0839707461994676,
      "2": 0.11125348772716633,
      "3": 0.13221370997717807,
      "4": 0.1409342614829668,
      "5": 0.13475159398441178,
      "6": 0.11556557202165559,
      "7": 0.08889969487514558,
      "8": 0.06134078117590277,
      "9": 0.03796431511082255,
      "10": 0.021075557494002715,
      "11": 0.010494453038373087,
      "12": 0.004687246359396607
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "LAA 3 - 5 SEA",
      "winner": "SEA"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "LAA 3 - 5 SEA",
      "winner": "SEA"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0969,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.25,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "SEA",
      "model_winner": "SEA",
      "simulation_winner": "SEA",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "SEA",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "SEA",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.3159,
      "winner": "SEA",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "SEA",
    "display_confidence": 0.56,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.633,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.3159,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.32,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0969,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3333,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 6,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 4
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-27T09:06:54.240008+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
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        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
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        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.25,
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
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        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
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        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
        "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
        "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
        "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
      }
    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
      "config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
      "config_hash": "sha256:da7e1fc0092c8fca4370044eb58fa5897f6ef528f3b1de083f3bc7a60a53c065",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:53760a5ddffc6f180dee92a59d27889f1cdba857749a59d2378ee233c5952253"
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    "changes": [
      {
        "parameter": "score.variance_multiplier",
        "old_value": 2.15,
        "new_value": 2.25,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
      "artifact_replay"
    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-27T18:42:59.985716+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-27T19:10:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.584837,
      "confidence": 0.584837,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "total_runs": 9
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-27T09:06:54.240008+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.base_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
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            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
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            "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
            "confidence.floor": 0.505,
            "score.variance_multiplier": 2.25,
            "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
            "recent.window_games": 10,
            "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
            "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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            "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
            "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
            "simulation.allow_score": true,
            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
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            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
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            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
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            "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
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            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
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            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
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            "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
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            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
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            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.585876,
      "confidence": 0.585876,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
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        "total_runs": 9
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-24T09:06:53.755755+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
            "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
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            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
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            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
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            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
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            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
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            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
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            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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      "confidence_governor": {
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        "starter_experience": {
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            "home_margin": 4.0
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        },
        "away": {
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.1925,
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        "recent_quality_blend": {
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      "score_distribution": {
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        "home_distribution": {
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    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
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      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.6176926855865745,
      "home_runs": 5.219393250782495,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260927_LAD@SF

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickLAD

Published scoreLAD 6 - 3 SF

Final confidence58.0%

Calibrationraw 58.6% → blended 57.7%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.7% · weight 50.0% · n=127

H2H base featurehome net -17.0 · absolute 17.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -1.6311

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	6.1952280788779195-2.2530065137073514	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	6-2	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.16,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.58,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.42,
    "away_win_probability": 0.58
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.16,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD wins 6-3",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "LAD 6 - 3 SF",
    "confidence": 0.58,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5864,
    "sample_size": 127,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5669,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.57665,
    "published_confidence": 0.58,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -17.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 17.0,
    "home_average_margin": -3.4,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0981,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0981,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -2.0807,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.796,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -1.6311
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01954828371386825
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.0195423111003728
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.019090962987667506
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.0190851300999905
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.017749180116119846
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.065610509578725,
      "1": 0.09635796359256105,
      "2": 0.12548467223928364,
      "3": 0.14490474712942605,
      "4": 0.14837591535860192,
      "5": 0.1347203102401079,
      "6": 0.10846549498506376,
      "7": 0.07743530190665761,
      "8": 0.04902021983315085,
      "9": 0.02751695529828516,
      "10": 0.013696650290467018,
      "11": 0.006045291142782789,
      "12": 0.002365968404887225
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04909625105871393,
      "1": 0.07287972313166184,
      "2": 0.09800366647045199,
      "3": 0.11938648332391494,
      "4": 0.13174836136055526,
      "5": 0.13170810810596867,
      "6": 0.1192770878145432,
      "7": 0.09785404196618301,
      "8": 0.07272399664688074,
      "9": 0.04896141193856422,
      "10": 0.029861206804832698,
      "11": 0.01649825468629886,
      "12": 0.008257448589865346,
      "13": 0.0037439581015650874
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "LAD 6 - 3 SF",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "LAD 6 - 3 SF",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0029,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.146,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "model_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "LAD",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "LAD",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 3,
      "simulation_margin": 3,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 3,
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.6311,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 3,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "LAD",
    "display_confidence": 0.58,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6892,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.58,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "supported_runline_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.6311,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.796,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0029,
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      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.6667,
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        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.047715309115626256,
          "1": 0.0721432302796231,
          "2": 0.09835903189085382,
          "3": 0.12092433983448234,
          "4": 0.1340583973608276,
          "5": 0.13401553355065332,
          "6": 0.12080838393183883,
          "7": 0.09820188591033245,
          "8": 0.07198191562872747,
          "9": 0.04757817622988817,
          "10": 0.02835783031555626,
          "11": 0.015241195254648439,
          "12": 0.007386621957459068,
          "13": 0.0032281487394828024
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 6.1952280788779195,
      "home_runs": 2.2530065137073514,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260927_NYM@WAS

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickNYM

Published scoreNYM 7 - 5 WAS

Final confidence53.1%

Calibrationraw 56.0% → blended 56.0%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.9% · weight 50.0% · n=288

H2H base featurehome net -10.0 · absolute 10.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.155

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	6.314753111603038-3.9979935952192145	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	6-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	6-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	7-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	7-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	7-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	7-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYM",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": -0.061114,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.530557,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.469443,
    "away_win_probability": 0.530557
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.061114,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYM wins 7-5",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "NYM 7 - 5 WAS",
    "confidence": 0.5305574999999999,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.56,
    "sample_size": 288,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.559,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5595,
    "published_confidence": 0.530557,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -10.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 10.0,
    "home_average_margin": -2.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0577,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0577,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.2298,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.016,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.155
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.013187941527658646
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.013020450624384243
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.01298919568586277
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.012824228915751577
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01245026690992325
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03712819006872227,
      "1": 0.0555362784218213,
      "2": 0.0764110590258,
      "3": 0.09670348255720367,
      "4": 0.11257305717308697,
      "5": 0.12054057445467453,
      "6": 0.11872399543130621,
      "7": 0.10755985314699823,
      "8": 0.08963308577527465,
      "9": 0.06870572801326073,
      "10": 0.04844221512111135,
      "11": 0.031416767094587114,
      "12": 0.018741547212036948,
      "13": 0.010283852536119204,
      "14": 0.0051905417673481485,
      "15": 0.002409772200648926
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.02696580672141111,
      "1": 0.04060303642002135,
      "2": 0.056984174216249926,
      "3": 0.07454193404464202,
      "4": 0.09088614969293639,
      "5": 0.10328693857855123,
      "6": 0.10940665902183462,
      "7": 0.10801716088784837,
      "8": 0.09940137943681555,
      "9": 0.08525948708916206,
      "10": 0.06816221127680468,
      "11": 0.05079199574439139,
      "12": 0.03527747846190145,
      "13": 0.02283759906314,
      "14": 0.013780151877852548,
      "15": 0.007750116221150925,
      "16": 0.004062684315545234,
      "17": 0.001985036929741095
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "NYM 7 - 5 WAS",
      "winner": "NYM"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "NYM 7 - 5 WAS",
      "winner": "NYM"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0594,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.194,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "NYM",
      "model_winner": "NYM",
      "simulation_winner": "NYM",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "NYM",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 7,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 7,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.155,
      "winner": "NYM",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 7,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "NYM",
    "display_confidence": 0.5306,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5306,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5306,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.155,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.016,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0594,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.5,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 1.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 12,
        "median": 14,
        "max": 14,
        "range": 2
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
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      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-27T09:06:54.240008+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
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        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
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        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
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        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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    "changes": [
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        "risk_tier": "low",
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    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-27T16:36:18.345146+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-27T17:05:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.46405,
      "confidence": 0.5359499999999999,
      "predicted_score": {
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      "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
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            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
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      "predicted_score": {
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      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
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          "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-24T09:06:53.755755+00:00",
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            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
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            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
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            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
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        "away": {
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.2112,
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        "quality_edge": 0.155,
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        "recent_quality_blend": {
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      "score_distribution": {
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    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 6.314753111603038,
      "home_runs": 3.9979935952192145,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260927_PIT@DET

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickPIT

Published scorePIT 4 - 3 DET

Final confidence50.5%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 53.1%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.3% · weight 50.0% · n=682

H2H base featurehome net 1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.0363

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.878962326786094-3.9118391936506782	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "PIT",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.01,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.505,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.495,
    "away_win_probability": 0.505
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.01,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "PIT wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "PIT 4 - 3 DET",
    "confidence": 0.505,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 682,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5528,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.53145,
    "published_confidence": 0.505,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.2,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0058,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0058,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.2453,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.352,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.0363
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02405097026405226
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.023897852347280348
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.023578437334532815
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02342832774786068
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.021485205496562555
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07506615141461212,
      "1": 0.10956165506017164,
      "2": 0.1400433031503364,
      "3": 0.15676728436631782,
      "4": 0.1536872546078035,
      "5": 0.13195006179445723,
      "6": 0.0992134772547187,
      "7": 0.06533126572112263,
      "8": 0.03767565412301166,
      "9": 0.019027856091062837,
      "10": 0.008416048759775268,
      "11": 0.0032599876566103037
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07220251971798768,
      "1": 0.10558485403911724,
      "2": 0.135740640673266,
      "3": 0.15341830000609313,
      "4": 0.15244157889115614,
      "5": 0.13316457614879956,
      "6": 0.10226640389069623,
      "7": 0.06904563988882323,
      "8": 0.040982508134210394,
      "9": 0.02138551973061804,
      "10": 0.009810702031827814,
      "11": 0.003956756847404638
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "PIT 4 - 3 DET",
      "winner": "PIT"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "PIT 4 - 3 DET",
      "winner": "PIT"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0057,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.282,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "PIT",
      "model_winner": "PIT",
      "simulation_winner": "PIT",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "PIT",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "PIT",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
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      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
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    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
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      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
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    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
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    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
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      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0057,
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      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
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        "median": 7,
        "max": 7,
        "range": 5
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        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 0.2453,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.352,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "conflict",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.0363
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.024872296893236785
          },
          {
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            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.024706609705482215
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.024361133554759197
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.024198851489434577
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 2,
            "away_runs": 3,
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.07377539912250414,
          "1": 0.10958822229934229,
          "2": 0.14168567975638688,
          "3": 0.15944018732506238,
          "4": 0.1561634502070388,
          "5": 0.13312841361575106,
          "6": 0.09878065009567068,
          "7": 0.06379443051462777,
          "8": 0.03585943243821279,
          "9": 0.017544210113796276,
          "10": 0.007470918351018807,
          "11": 0.002769006160588058
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        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.07088737181874852,
          "1": 0.10551029937423309,
          "2": 0.13723912149736353,
          "3": 0.15599766477022392,
          "4": 0.15495848393047257,
          "5": 0.1345146896632162,
          "6": 0.10204251713951733,
          "7": 0.06764718138780032,
          "8": 0.03919000711882054,
          "9": 0.01984074944041904,
          "10": 0.0087780468952356,
          "11": 0.0033938669639493237
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.878962326786094,
      "home_runs": 3.9118391936506782,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260927_STL@MIL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickMIL

Published scoreSTL 2 - 5 MIL

Final confidence58.0%

Calibrationraw 69.5% → blended 67.9%

Empirical signalhit rate 59.4% · weight 16.0% · n=32

H2H base featurehome net 13.0 · absolute 13.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 1.4859

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.6379907880080773-6.473384383220621	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	2-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	2-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	2-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	2-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.16,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.58,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.58,
    "away_win_probability": 0.42
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.16,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL wins 5-2",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "STL 2 - 5 MIL",
    "confidence": 0.58,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.695017,
    "sample_size": 32,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5938,
    "empirical_weight": 0.16,
    "blended_confidence": 0.678822,
    "published_confidence": 0.58,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 13.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 13.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.6,
    "home_run_delta": 0.075,
    "away_run_delta": -0.075,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 8.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.7174,
    "recent_quality_edge": 1.056,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 1.4859
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.021347785654581994
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.020843473060130405
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02010840621502644
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      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.019913590724914908
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.019633372285387474
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04484175309924769,
      "1": 0.06674355737295948,
      "2": 0.09047948355326808,
      "3": 0.1117132973752181,
      "4": 0.12562429103984565,
      "5": 0.12866379947290185,
      "6": 0.12001985991769407,
      "7": 0.10196798898667615,
      "8": 0.07890210470861884,
      "9": 0.05560672494227559,
      "10": 0.03569275259229313,
      "11": 0.020866363141362285,
      "12": 0.01111034323754492,
      "13": 0.005387932993979631,
      "14": 0.0023797475661146103
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    "away_distribution": {
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      "1": 0.12137713124659834,
      "2": 0.15251117197511788,
      "3": 0.16591912987209814,
      "4": 0.15628643252728996,
      "5": 0.12746064374460656,
      "6": 0.09000382169227758,
      "7": 0.0550269962839143,
      "8": 0.02912867142380787,
      "9": 0.01335043939656316,
      "10": 0.005297859737128257
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "STL 2 - 5 MIL",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "STL 2 - 5 MIL",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.101,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 1.266,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "model_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 1,
        "published_winner": "MIL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "MIL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 3,
      "simulation_margin": 3,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 3,
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.4859,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "MIL",
    "display_confidence": 0.58,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.72,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.58,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.4859,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 1.056,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.101,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 7,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 7,
        "range": 0
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-27T09:06:54.240008+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
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        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
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        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.25,
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
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        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
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        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
        "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
      "config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
      "config_hash": "sha256:da7e1fc0092c8fca4370044eb58fa5897f6ef528f3b1de083f3bc7a60a53c065",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:53760a5ddffc6f180dee92a59d27889f1cdba857749a59d2378ee233c5952253"
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    "changes": [
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        "old_value": 2.15,
        "new_value": 2.25,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-27T18:49:31.374521+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-27T19:10:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.631405,
      "confidence": 0.631405,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "total_runs": 8
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "config_id": "candidate-8133e99fc8d4e4c7",
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          "parent_config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-27T09:06:54.240008+00:00",
          "parameters": {
            "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
            "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
            "confidence.base_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
            "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
            "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
            "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
            "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
            "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
            "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
            "confidence.floor": 0.505,
            "score.variance_multiplier": 2.25,
            "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
            "recent.window_games": 10,
            "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
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      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.632324,
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      "predicted_score": {
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      },
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      "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "config_hash": "sha256:da7e1fc0092c8fca4370044eb58fa5897f6ef528f3b1de083f3bc7a60a53c065",
          "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
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            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
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            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
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            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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    },
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        "evidence": [
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            "home_margin": 4.0
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        "away": {
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 1.4845,
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        "quality_edge": 1.4859,
        "season_quality_edge": 1.7174,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
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        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
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      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
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      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.6379907880080773,
      "home_runs": 6.473384383220621,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260927_TB@PHI

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickTB

Published scoreTB 4 - 3 PHI

Final confidence57.6%

Calibrationraw 67.2% → blended 60.7%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.1% · weight 50.0% · n=543

H2H base featurehome net -13.0 · absolute 13.0 · n=2

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.6306

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.030207947715104-5.3853853934747935	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.15128,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.57564,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.42436,
    "away_win_probability": 0.57564
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.15128,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "TB 4 - 3 PHI",
    "confidence": 0.5756397999999999,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.6725,
    "sample_size": 543,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5414,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.60695,
    "published_confidence": 0.57564,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 2,
    "sample_weight": 0.03,
    "home_net_margin": -13.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 13.0,
    "home_average_margin": -6.5,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0975,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0975,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -11.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.5932,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.7,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.6306
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.025365239235151067
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.024943204634170997
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02428334636890916
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02387931263202009
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02377219844662334
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.10279845946480115,
      "1": 0.14718371643031197,
      "2": 0.17759866649108444,
      "3": 0.1806036044469907,
      "4": 0.15478180397782057,
      "5": 0.1117944315011993,
      "6": 0.06804985700057954,
      "7": 0.034909291875046045,
      "8": 0.015092515799099947,
      "9": 0.005499067065495297,
      "10": 0.001688585947571054
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05652412162212097,
      "1": 0.08350328674181175,
      "2": 0.11068105080159191,
      "3": 0.13162637877252756,
      "4": 0.14044702658520897,
      "5": 0.13445659871111051,
      "6": 0.11549193257951397,
      "7": 0.08900637883446061,
      "8": 0.06154468768748724,
      "9": 0.03818211382074279,
      "10": 0.02125344422791468,
      "11": 0.010614477663414796,
      "12": 0.0047562852330908624,
      "13": 0.0019122167190034605
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "TB 4 - 3 PHI",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "TB 4 - 3 PHI",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0024,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.05,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
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    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
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      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "TB",
      "model_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 4,
        "published_winner": "TB",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.25,
        "draw_majority_team": "PHI",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
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      "model_score": {
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        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
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    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
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      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
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      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
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  },
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    "internal_signal_score": 0.5494,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
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    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
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      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
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      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 6,
        "max": 6,
        "range": 3
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    },
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          "runs_scored": 706,
          "runs_allowed": 695,
          "run_differential": 11,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.06832298136645963,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "TB",
          "games": 161,
          "wins": 98,
          "losses": 63,
          "win_pct": 0.6086956521739131,
          "runs_scored": 733,
          "runs_allowed": 643,
          "run_differential": 90,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.5590062111801242,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.4907,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.0683,
        "quality_edge": -0.6306,
        "season_quality_edge": -0.5932,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.5932,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.7,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.6306
        },
        "margin_adjustment": -0.2649,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": -0.2649,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": -0.6306,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.5932,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 4.844,
          "home_runs": 1.852,
          "home_win_probability": 0.2456
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.026288996364954333
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 2,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.025831425686413913
          },
          {
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            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.025116729771271384
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          {
            "home_runs": 2,
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          },
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.024563722131258715
          }
        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.10178328008104484,
          "1": 0.1481833863156096,
          "2": 0.1803739709850748,
          "3": 0.18356906525887168,
          "4": 0.15619833675122916,
          "5": 0.1111231623946757,
          "6": 0.06609735154231074,
          "7": 0.032871142757669815,
          "8": 0.013667743677669967,
          "9": 0.004751493365215562,
          "10": 0.0013810668706280332
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        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.055247257696196136,
          "1": 0.08311181899526125,
          "2": 0.11161539622475528,
          "3": 0.13381188217425746,
          "4": 0.14321038421087573,
          "5": 0.13682441393843467,
          "6": 0.11669760407093059,
          "7": 0.08885247688738318,
          "8": 0.060392970919506,
          "9": 0.036644812702457605,
          "10": 0.01984942243208363,
          "11": 0.009598259752333523,
          "12": 0.004143299995524893
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.030207947715104,
      "home_runs": 5.3853853934747935,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260927_TEX@MIN

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickTEX

Published scoreTEX 5 - 4 MIN

Final confidence51.2%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 53.2%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.4% · weight 50.0% · n=719

H2H base featurehome net 22.0 · absolute 22.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.0204

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.629659018624814-4.336498722476646	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TEX",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.02394,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.51197,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.48803,
    "away_win_probability": 0.51197
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.02394,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "TEX wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "TEX 5 - 4 MIN",
    "confidence": 0.5119703800000001,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 719,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5535,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5318,
    "published_confidence": 0.51197,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 22.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 22.0,
    "home_average_margin": 4.4,
    "home_run_delta": 0.1269,
    "away_run_delta": -0.1269,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 10.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.1366,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.312,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.0204
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.017305208362976606
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.017254490991820273
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.017187014283191113
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.017136643310233936
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.01580961764210208
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04954747097090136,
      "1": 0.07352804000045376,
      "2": 0.09878885283227842,
      "3": 0.12016731312555859,
      "4": 0.13233911150658376,
      "5": 0.13195125764802296,
      "6": 0.11911386277097818,
      "7": 0.09734968239830077,
      "8": 0.07203278807029473,
      "9": 0.04825578289246845,
      "10": 0.029267926962995402,
      "11": 0.01607155928781765,
      "12": 0.00799001367003404,
      "13": 0.0035963378633118884
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04778460859044301,
      "1": 0.07098913301435167,
      "2": 0.09568940415891473,
      "3": 0.11703182226831609,
      "4": 0.1298710115817581,
      "5": 0.13076412684027797,
      "6": 0.11946292718850215,
      "7": 0.09902522201076205,
      "8": 0.07447776516448563,
      "9": 0.050824789309959,
      "10": 0.031469705338159994,
      "11": 0.017679822678661517,
      "12": 0.009012209362334657,
      "13": 0.004168240591089288,
      "14": 0.0017492119019839165
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "TEX 5 - 4 MIN",
      "winner": "TEX"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "TEX 5 - 4 MIN",
      "winner": "TEX"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0281,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.522,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "TEX",
      "model_winner": "TEX",
      "simulation_winner": "TEX",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "TEX",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "TEX",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.0204,
      "winner": "TEX",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "TEX",
    "display_confidence": 0.512,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5813,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.512,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.0204,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.312,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0281,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3333,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 4,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 8,
        "range": 4
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "config_hash": "sha256:1ad22b058ac7f786856b2afec11660ade914953b5b660a1d45855a0be03d5ccc",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-27T09:06:54.240008+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
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        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.25,
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
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        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
        "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
        "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
        "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
      }
    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
      "config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
      "config_hash": "sha256:da7e1fc0092c8fca4370044eb58fa5897f6ef528f3b1de083f3bc7a60a53c065",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:53760a5ddffc6f180dee92a59d27889f1cdba857749a59d2378ee233c5952253"
    },
    "changes": [
      {
        "parameter": "score.variance_multiplier",
        "old_value": 2.15,
        "new_value": 2.25,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
      "artifact_replay"
    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-27T18:49:37.380833+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-27T19:10:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.483432,
      "confidence": 0.516568,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "total_runs": 9
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
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  ]
}

20260929_BOS@NYY

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickNYY

Published scoreBOS 2 - 4 NYY

Final confidence54.0%

Calibrationraw 46.0% → blended 51.7%

Empirical signalhit rate 57.5% · weight 50.0% · n=454

H2H base featurehome net 16.0 · absolute 16.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.3398

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.760195497285993-5.470883753518859	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	2-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	2-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	2-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	2-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.08,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.54,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.54,
    "away_win_probability": 0.46
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.08,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY wins 4-2",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "BOS 2 - 4 NYY",
    "confidence": 0.54,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.4601,
    "sample_size": 454,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5749,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5175,
    "published_confidence": 0.54,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
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    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 16.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 16.0,
    "home_average_margin": 3.2,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0923,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0923,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 15.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      },
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        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
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    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
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  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
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    "season_quality_edge": 0.4366,
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    "season_weight": 0.65,
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    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
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  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
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          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.555452
        },
        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": false,
          "min_starter_games": 26,
          "shrink_factor": 1.0
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 5,
        "sample_weight": 0.0577,
        "home_net_margin": 16.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 16.0,
        "home_average_margin": 3.2,
        "home_run_delta": 0.0923,
        "away_run_delta": -0.0923,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": 15.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 7.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -6.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -1.0
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        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
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          "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": false,
        "home": {
          "team": "NYY",
          "games": 161,
          "wins": 93,
          "losses": 68,
          "win_pct": 0.577639751552795,
          "runs_scored": 739,
          "runs_allowed": 601,
          "run_differential": 138,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.8571428571428571,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "BOS",
          "games": 162,
          "wins": 87,
          "losses": 75,
          "win_pct": 0.5370370370370371,
          "runs_scored": 689,
          "runs_allowed": 611,
          "run_differential": 78,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.48148148148148145,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.3757,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0406,
        "quality_edge": 0.3398,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.4366,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 0.4366,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.16,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.3398
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.03080356741992327
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 2,
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          {
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          {
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            "probability": 0.02810737262015647
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 4,
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.08816708354038616,
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          "3": 0.17395667262916503,
          "4": 0.15873047919079936,
          "5": 0.12353786099019204,
          "6": 0.0820087783267198,
          "7": 0.04643453726499648,
          "8": 0.022425514543925603,
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          "10": 0.0032456863569222446
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        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.09205184686385079,
          "1": 0.13497930106449507,
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          "3": 0.17707609000770713,
          "4": 0.15842291640775982,
          "5": 0.12021275618472826,
          "6": 0.07736732400909441,
          "7": 0.042231748947340705,
          "8": 0.019552172913574202,
          "9": 0.007677599648441272,
          "10": 0.0025569978623288174
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.760195497285993,
      "home_runs": 5.470883753518859,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260929_CHC@SD

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickSD

Published scoreCHC 4 - 5 SD

Final confidence50.8%

Calibrationraw 53.7% → blended 54.8%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.9% · weight 50.0% · n=684

H2H base featurehome net -29.0 · absolute 29.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.2355

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.239253839954954-4.327861830611672	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "SD",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.015792,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.507896,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.507896,
    "away_win_probability": 0.492104
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.015792,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "SD wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "CHC 4 - 5 SD",
    "confidence": 0.5078962025,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.536952,
    "sample_size": 684,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5585,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.547726,
    "published_confidence": 0.507896,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -29.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 29.0,
    "home_average_margin": -5.8,
    "home_run_delta": -0.1673,
    "away_run_delta": 0.1673,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -20.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.6358,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.508,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.2355
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.020697963498079945
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.019795431783525982
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.019598053542315363
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.019555521853491395
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01930518335574106
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.058873711031276345,
      "1": 0.0868469837619334,
      "2": 0.11460806602509555,
      "3": 0.13530154149529186,
      "4": 0.1428951278787376,
      "5": 0.13500791013808305,
      "6": 0.11411116103411154,
      "7": 0.08628278408152955,
      "8": 0.058364301487223796,
      "9": 0.03531811779360204,
      "10": 0.019119429332457458,
      "11": 0.009259326890734294,
      "12": 0.0040115390499236535
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06106068951282485,
      "1": 0.08994423081620752,
      "2": 0.11818669732999297,
      "3": 0.13853118771358397,
      "4": 0.14484723031036068,
      "5": 0.13510036095928796,
      "6": 0.11240522518166372,
      "7": 0.08342575911423988,
      "8": 0.05523285731149256,
      "9": 0.03261959247231663,
      "10": 0.017184750362256623,
      "11": 0.008075912426132209,
      "12": 0.003385506489640405
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CHC 4 - 5 SD",
      "winner": "SD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CHC 4 - 5 SD",
      "winner": "SD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0325,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.158,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "SD",
      "model_winner": "SD",
      "simulation_winner": "SD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "SD",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "SD",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.2355,
      "winner": "SD",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "SD",
    "display_confidence": 0.5079,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5601,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5079,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.2355,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.508,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0325,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6667,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 6,
        "median": 6,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 4
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-27T09:06:54.240008+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.base_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
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        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
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        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
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        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
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        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
        "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
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        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
        "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:53760a5ddffc6f180dee92a59d27889f1cdba857749a59d2378ee233c5952253"
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    "changes": [
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        "parameter": "score.variance_multiplier",
        "old_value": 2.15,
        "new_value": 2.25,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-30T01:36:26.998256+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-30T02:00:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.510929,
      "confidence": 0.510929,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
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    },
    {
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      "home_runs": 5,
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    },
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    },
    {
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      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
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      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260929_CHW@HOU

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickCHW

Published scoreCHW 6 - 5 HOU

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 56.6% → blended 57.4%

Empirical signalhit rate 58.2% · weight 50.0% · n=433

H2H base featurehome net -4.0 · absolute 4.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.4495

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.177399116390809-3.2403201354327757	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-3	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	6-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHW",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": -0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.47,
    "away_win_probability": 0.53
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHW wins 6-5",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "CHW 6 - 5 HOU",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.565874,
    "sample_size": 433,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.582,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.573937,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -4.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 4.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.8,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0231,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0231,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -9.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.571,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.224,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.4495
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  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
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        "probability": 0.015765283988507267
      },
      {
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        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01514873228710994
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
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      "6": 0.12009279556551684,
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    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
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    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
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    "margin_widening_capped": false,
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        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
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        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.582,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5787,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.4495,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 6,
            "home_runs": 5
          },
          "margin": -1,
          "probability_before": 0.448639,
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        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": false,
          "min_starter_games": 18,
          "shrink_factor": 1.0
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 5,
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        "home_net_margin": -4.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 4.0,
        "home_average_margin": -0.8,
        "home_run_delta": -0.0231,
        "away_run_delta": 0.0231,
        "evidence": [
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            "home_margin": 4.0
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          {
            "home_margin": 2.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -4.0
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          {
            "home_margin": 3.0
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": false,
        "home": {
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          "games": 162,
          "wins": 81,
          "losses": 81,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "runs_scored": 734,
          "runs_allowed": 766,
          "run_differential": -32,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.19753086419753085,
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        },
        "away": {
          "team": "CHW",
          "games": 162,
          "wins": 84,
          "losses": 78,
          "win_pct": 0.5185185185185185,
          "runs_scored": 776,
          "runs_allowed": 720,
          "run_differential": 56,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.345679012345679,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.5432,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.0185,
        "quality_edge": -0.4495,
        "season_quality_edge": -0.571,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.571,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.224,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.4495
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
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            "away_runs": 5,
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        "home_distribution": {
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    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
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      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260929_PHI@ATL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickATL

Published scorePHI 2 - 3 ATL

Final confidence50.5%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 52.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.3% · weight 50.0% · n=586

H2H base featurehome net 6.0 · absolute 6.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.559

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.598908535356568-4.614426912949791	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	2-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	2-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	2-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	2-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	2-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "ATL",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": 0.010788,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.505394,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.505394,
    "away_win_probability": 0.494606
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.010788,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "ATL wins 3-2",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "PHI 2 - 3 ATL",
    "confidence": 0.505394185,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 586,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5427,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5264,
    "published_confidence": 0.505394,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 6.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 6.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.2,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0346,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0346,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 10.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.679,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.336,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.559
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03663447650385173
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03605874295736209
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03534856298176649
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.034793038364766285
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 1,
        "probability": 0.031332353530374016
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.11184538300327683,
      "1": 0.1590955364660151,
      "2": 0.18825141918458108,
      "3": 0.18529293123710208,
      "4": 0.15171194410611147,
      "5": 0.10332871411405359,
      "6": 0.05854133272542454,
      "7": 0.02758954350536477,
      "8": 0.010816001865673063,
      "9": 0.003527193792397572
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.11747422505407185,
      "1": 0.1664388702411457,
      "2": 0.19460398578951227,
      "3": 0.18777315536254796,
      "4": 0.1495202721637699,
      "5": 0.09825427488601585,
      "6": 0.05328287281387508,
      "7": 0.023845619578403726,
      "8": 0.008806724110657731
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "PHI 2 - 3 ATL",
      "winner": "ATL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "PHI 2 - 3 ATL",
      "winner": "ATL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0494,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.406,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "ATL",
      "model_winner": "ATL",
      "simulation_winner": "ATL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "ATL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "ATL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.559,
      "winner": "ATL",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 3,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "ATL",
    "display_confidence": 0.5054,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6436,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5054,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.559,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.336,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0494,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 10,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 5
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-27T09:06:54.240008+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
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        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
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        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
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        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
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        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
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        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
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        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
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        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
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  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
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    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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    "changes": [
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    },
    {
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      "home_runs": 3,
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    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
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    }
  ]
}

20260930_BOS@NYY

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickNYY

Published scoreBOS 3 - 4 NYY

Final confidence54.0%

Calibrationraw 46.0% → blended 51.0%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.1% · weight 50.0% · n=403

H2H base featurehome net 16.0 · absolute 16.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.3398

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.8289448372172217-5.68424985651052	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.08,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.54,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.54,
    "away_win_probability": 0.46
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.08,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "BOS 3 - 4 NYY",
    "confidence": 0.54,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.4601,
    "sample_size": 403,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5608,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.51045,
    "published_confidence": 0.54,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 16.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 16.0,
    "home_average_margin": 3.2,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0923,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0923,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 15.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.4366,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.16,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.3398
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03065281984794564
      },
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        "empirical_weight": 0.5,
        "blended_confidence": 0.51045
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      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.51045,
        "final_confidence": 0.5622,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5622,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.972209,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 0.1,
        "calibration_sample_size": 403,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5608,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5582,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.3398,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 3,
            "home_runs": 4
          },
          "margin": 1,
          "probability_before": 0.562249,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.574033,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.972209,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": false,
          "magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
          "probability_after": 0.562249,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.562249
        },
        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": false,
          "min_starter_games": 20,
          "shrink_factor": 1.0
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 5,
        "sample_weight": 0.0577,
        "home_net_margin": 16.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 16.0,
        "home_average_margin": 3.2,
        "home_run_delta": 0.0923,
        "away_run_delta": -0.0923,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": 15.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 7.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -6.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -1.0
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        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
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          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": false,
        "home": {
          "team": "NYY",
          "games": 161,
          "wins": 93,
          "losses": 68,
          "win_pct": 0.577639751552795,
          "runs_scored": 739,
          "runs_allowed": 601,
          "run_differential": 138,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.8571428571428571,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "BOS",
          "games": 162,
          "wins": 87,
          "losses": 75,
          "win_pct": 0.5370370370370371,
          "runs_scored": 689,
          "runs_allowed": 611,
          "run_differential": 78,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.48148148148148145,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.3757,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0406,
        "quality_edge": 0.3398,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.4366,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 0.4366,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.16,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.3398
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 3,
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          {
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            "away_runs": 2,
            "probability": 0.03042737780124956
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          },
          {
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
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          "4": 0.15850309706995838,
          "5": 0.12081778035631875,
          "6": 0.07818691920638339,
          "7": 0.04295834064197984,
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "3": 0.17955588057391406,
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          "8": 0.0172943405431513,
          "9": 0.006510222759429993,
          "10": 0.0020682578479743943
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.8289448372172217,
      "home_runs": 5.68424985651052,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260930_CHC@SD

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickSD

Published scoreCHC 4 - 5 SD

Final confidence51.5%

Calibrationraw 53.9% → blended 55.0%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.1% · weight 50.0% · n=811

H2H base featurehome net -29.0 · absolute 29.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.2355

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.8806154972392624-4.543986556647879	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "SD",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.03049,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.515245,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.515245,
    "away_win_probability": 0.484755
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.03049,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "SD wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "CHC 4 - 5 SD",
    "confidence": 0.5152454725000001,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.538882,
    "sample_size": 811,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.561,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.549941,
    "published_confidence": 0.515245,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -29.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 29.0,
    "home_average_margin": -5.8,
    "home_run_delta": -0.1673,
    "away_run_delta": 0.1673,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -20.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.6358,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.508,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.2355
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.021100676535647546
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02033424987658989
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02012387330860744
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.019752135345300695
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01948978370477639
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.060446866490935364,
      "1": 0.08907585420526569,
      "2": 0.1171869001932523,
      "3": 0.13763567105359828,
      "4": 0.1443164409818944,
      "5": 0.13509319807877898,
      "6": 0.11289742150695818,
      "7": 0.08423012216642811,
      "8": 0.05610269261390618,
      "9": 0.03336052277858291,
      "10": 0.017709848957529715,
      "11": 0.008393241786550515,
      "12": 0.0035512191863194043
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06271366287780988,
      "1": 0.09227905630828238,
      "2": 0.12086109858609505,
      "3": 0.14090043891216095,
      "4": 0.14621117588601557,
      "5": 0.13504894918536367,
      "6": 0.11103100329387691,
      "7": 0.08125306168760116,
      "8": 0.05292704172094123,
      "9": 0.03068724649157306,
      "10": 0.015837281588268047,
      "11": 0.007275213971479352,
      "12": 0.0029747694905326856
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CHC 4 - 5 SD",
      "winner": "SD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CHC 4 - 5 SD",
      "winner": "SD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0243,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.158,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "SD",
      "model_winner": "SD",
      "simulation_winner": "SD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "SD",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "SD",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.2355,
      "winner": "SD",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "SD",
    "display_confidence": 0.5152,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5983,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5152,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.2355,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.508,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0243,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 8,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 1
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-8133e99fc8d4e4c7",
      "config_hash": "sha256:1ad22b058ac7f786856b2afec11660ade914953b5b660a1d45855a0be03d5ccc",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-27T09:06:54.240008+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
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        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.25,
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
        "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
        "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
        "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
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    },
    {
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      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
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    }
  ]
}

20260930_CHW@HOU

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickCHW

Published scoreCHW 6 - 5 HOU

Final confidence50.5%

Calibrationraw 50.7% → blended 52.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.5% · weight 50.0% · n=554

H2H base featurehome net -4.0 · absolute 4.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.4495

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.386695508645534-4.599156950575839	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	6-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHW",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": -0.01,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.505,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.495,
    "away_win_probability": 0.505
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.01,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHW wins 6-5",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "CHW 6 - 5 HOU",
    "confidence": 0.505,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.506891,
    "sample_size": 554,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5451,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.525995,
    "published_confidence": 0.505,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -4.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 4.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.8,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0231,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0231,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -9.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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            "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
            "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
            "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
            "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
      "confidence_calibration": {
        "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.506891,
        "sample_size": 554,
        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5451,
        "empirical_weight": 0.5,
        "blended_confidence": 0.525995
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      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.525995,
        "final_confidence": 0.505,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.505,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.979545,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 0.0684,
        "calibration_sample_size": 554,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5451,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5437,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.4495,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 6,
            "home_runs": 5
          },
          "margin": -1,
          "probability_before": 0.495,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.425967,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.979545,
          "side_flipped": false,
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          "magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
          "probability_after": 0.495,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.505
        },
        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": false,
          "min_starter_games": 20,
          "shrink_factor": 1.0
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 5,
        "sample_weight": 0.0577,
        "home_net_margin": -4.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 4.0,
        "home_average_margin": -0.8,
        "home_run_delta": -0.0231,
        "away_run_delta": 0.0231,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": 4.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 2.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -4.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 3.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -9.0
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        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
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        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": false,
        "home": {
          "team": "HOU",
          "games": 162,
          "wins": 81,
          "losses": 81,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "runs_scored": 734,
          "runs_allowed": 766,
          "run_differential": -32,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.19753086419753085,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "CHW",
          "games": 162,
          "wins": 84,
          "losses": 78,
          "win_pct": 0.5185185185185185,
          "runs_scored": 776,
          "runs_allowed": 720,
          "run_differential": 56,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.345679012345679,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.5432,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.0185,
        "quality_edge": -0.4495,
        "season_quality_edge": -0.571,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.571,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.224,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.4495
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
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            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.016436013508587383
          },
          {
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            "probability": 0.015773780317446754
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          {
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "6": 0.12198529998967142,
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          "11": 0.02404396191127213,
          "12": 0.013148207221788881,
          "13": 0.006551900846619801,
          "14": 0.00297514652921295
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.386695508645534,
      "home_runs": 4.599156950575839,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260930_PHI@ATL

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickATL

Published scorePHI 3 - 4 ATL

Final confidence51.3%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 53.3%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.6% · weight 50.0% · n=738

H2H base featurehome net 6.0 · absolute 6.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.559

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.364232830289844-4.120854781610429	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "ATL",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.025648,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.512824,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.512824,
    "away_win_probability": 0.487176
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.025648,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "ATL wins 4-3 (Extra Innings - 10)",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "PHI 3 - 4 ATL",
    "confidence": 0.512824375,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 738,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5556,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.53285,
    "published_confidence": 0.512824,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 6.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 6.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.2,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0346,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0346,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 10.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.679,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.336,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.559
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.031964266078845685
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03135329346444452
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.030865882858655044
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.030275905003401455
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.028100708915149417
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.09771851485081708,
      "1": 0.1404202947605232,
      "2": 0.17129686247484727,
      "3": 0.17739257664169208,
      "4": 0.15595093432211035,
      "5": 0.11638768383622267,
      "6": 0.07373820743756168,
      "7": 0.03965926228174976,
      "8": 0.018107695912543312,
      "9": 0.007018563918190915,
      "10": 0.00230940356374175
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.10209835528351599,
      "1": 0.14625505172570633,
      "2": 0.17674523961492336,
      "3": 0.1801894232778916,
      "4": 0.154972837542889,
      "5": 0.11244149072978717,
      "6": 0.06882438265756163,
      "7": 0.03553880122263182,
      "8": 0.015481318447663437,
      "9": 0.005689286885495802,
      "10": 0.0017638126119337773
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "PHI 3 - 4 ATL",
      "winner": "ATL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "PHI 3 - 4 ATL",
      "winner": "ATL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0987,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.406,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "ATL",
      "model_winner": "ATL",
      "simulation_winner": "ATL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "ATL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.559,
      "winner": "ATL",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "ATL",
    "display_confidence": 0.5128,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5966,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5128,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.559,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.336,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0987,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 6,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 8,
        "range": 2
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-8133e99fc8d4e4c7",
      "config_hash": "sha256:1ad22b058ac7f786856b2afec11660ade914953b5b660a1d45855a0be03d5ccc",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-27T09:06:54.240008+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.25,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
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  ]
}

20261001_BOS@NYY

Official result pending · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Official result pending

PickNYY

Published scoreBOS 4 - 5 NYY

Final confidence52.2%

Calibrationraw 46.0% → blended 50.9%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.8% · weight 50.0% · n=849

H2H base featurehome net 16.0 · absolute 16.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.3398

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.152281352302118-5.119089530878169	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.044196,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.522098,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.522098,
    "away_win_probability": 0.477902
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.044196,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "BOS 4 - 5 NYY",
    "confidence": 0.522098385,
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            "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
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            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
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            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
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            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
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            "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
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            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
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            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
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    },
    "diagnostics": {
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        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
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        "score_coherence": {
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          "published_score": {
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        "starter_experience": {
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          "min_starter_games": 22,
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      "h2h_base_feature": {
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        "home_average_margin": 3.2,
        "home_run_delta": 0.0923,
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        "evidence": [
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            "home_margin": 7.0
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      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
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        "home": {
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          "run_differential_per_game": 0.8571428571428571,
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        "away": {
          "team": "BOS",
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.3757,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0406,
        "quality_edge": 0.3398,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.4366,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
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          "recent_quality_edge": 0.16,
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          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
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        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
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      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
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        "home_distribution": {
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        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
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      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.152281352302118,
      "home_runs": 5.119089530878169,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20261001_CHC@SD

Official result pending · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Official result pending

PickSD

Published scoreCHC 4 - 5 SD

Final confidence53.4%

Calibrationraw 60.4% → blended 58.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.8% · weight 50.0% · n=703

H2H base featurehome net -29.0 · absolute 29.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.2355

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.8806154972392624-4.543986556647879	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "SD",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.067744,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.533872,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.533872,
    "away_win_probability": 0.466128
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.067744,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "SD wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "CHC 4 - 5 SD",
    "confidence": 0.5338715224999999,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.603682,
    "sample_size": 703,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5676,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.585641,
    "published_confidence": 0.533872,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -29.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 29.0,
    "home_average_margin": -5.8,
    "home_run_delta": -0.1673,
    "away_run_delta": 0.1673,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -20.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.6358,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.508,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.2355
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.018430496987734413
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01807565835594419
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      {
        "home_runs": 5,
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        "probability": 0.017447214654999734
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      {
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        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.017424622813198228
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      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.017111306959138328
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.045612051211798885,
      "1": 0.0678564029953871,
      "2": 0.0918512325004045,
      "3": 0.11312590455576738,
      "4": 0.12677162702080358,
      "5": 0.12926024844725856,
      "6": 0.11991978223620607,
      "7": 0.1012277534902831,
      "8": 0.0777483693575957,
      "9": 0.05433327736426581,
      "10": 0.034548041943714324,
      "11": 0.01998774944861285,
      "12": 0.010521733030774014,
      "13": 0.005039571164586615,
      "14": 0.0021962552325416
    },
    "away_distribution": {
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      "1": 0.08637683177990815,
      "2": 0.11406177778722087,
      "3": 0.13480264058372063,
      "4": 0.142584415619892,
      "5": 0.13497741853806383,
      "6": 0.11435774243227188,
      "7": 0.08671324243227696,
      "8": 0.058846505211311656,
      "9": 0.03574138053412007,
      "10": 0.019428414846662016,
      "11": 0.009451893300776294,
      "12": 0.004115434082660816
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CHC 4 - 5 SD",
      "winner": "SD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CHC 4 - 5 SD",
      "winner": "SD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0243,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.158,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "SD",
      "model_winner": "SD",
      "simulation_winner": "SD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "SD",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "SD",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.2355,
      "winner": "SD",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "SD",
    "display_confidence": 0.5339,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5983,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5339,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.2355,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.508,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0243,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 9,
        "median": 10,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 1
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-8133e99fc8d4e4c7",
      "config_hash": "sha256:1ad22b058ac7f786856b2afec11660ade914953b5b660a1d45855a0be03d5ccc",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-27T09:06:54.240008+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
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    {
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    },
    {
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    },
    {
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      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
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      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20261001_CHW@HOU

Official result pending · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Official result pending

PickCHW

Published scoreCHW 6 - 5 HOU

Final confidence50.5%

Calibrationraw 50.7% → blended 52.5%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.4% · weight 50.0% · n=555

H2H base featurehome net -4.0 · absolute 4.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.4495

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.386695508645534-4.599156950575839	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	6-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHW",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": -0.01,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.505,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.495,
    "away_win_probability": 0.505
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.01,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHW wins 6-5",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "CHW 6 - 5 HOU",
    "confidence": 0.505,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.50684,
    "sample_size": 555,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5441,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.52547,
    "published_confidence": 0.505,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -4.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 4.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.8,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0231,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0231,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -9.0
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    "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
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  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.571,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.224,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.4495
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  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.015845151267015013
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
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    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04218497899286698,
      "1": 0.06289690242152335,
      "2": 0.08570456983748728,
      "3": 0.10672889246812813,
      "4": 0.12146840461704717,
      "5": 0.1263420599375045,
      "6": 0.12009802929674447,
      "7": 0.10433430081333758,
      "8": 0.08283648083522833,
      "9": 0.06010622768201131,
      "10": 0.03985846829142999,
      "11": 0.02415600105594041,
      "12": 0.013379281024094032,
      "13": 0.006772418905157931,
      "14": 0.0031329838214984892
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    "away_distribution": {
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      "3": 0.10491476930878556,
      "4": 0.11991555349430048,
      "5": 0.12541469780414272,
      "6": 0.12002048820439334,
      "7": 0.1050984655433629,
      "8": 0.08421149839115973,
      "9": 0.061741965086781196,
      "10": 0.041421281788251156,
      "11": 0.025427323806505666,
      "12": 0.01428274907871888,
      "13": 0.00734102989586382,
      "14": 0.0034525200727598734
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CHW 6 - 5 HOU",
      "winner": "CHW"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CHW 6 - 5 HOU",
      "winner": "CHW"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0303,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.154,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
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    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
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      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "CHW",
      "model_winner": "CHW",
      "simulation_winner": "CHW",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "CHW",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "CHW",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
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        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
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    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4495,
      "winner": "CHW",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CHW",
    "display_confidence": 0.505,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5999,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.505,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4495,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.224,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0303,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3333,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 6,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 4
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
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    "status": "completed",
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    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
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      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-10-01T21:00:00+00:00",
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    "champion_reference": {
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            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
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            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
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            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
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            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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            "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
            "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
            "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
            "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
            "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
            "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
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        "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.50684,
        "sample_size": 555,
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      "confidence_governor": {
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        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
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        "score_gap": 0.0679,
        "calibration_sample_size": 555,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5441,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5428,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.4495,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 6,
            "home_runs": 5
          },
          "margin": -1,
          "probability_before": 0.495,
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        },
        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": false,
          "min_starter_games": 20,
          "shrink_factor": 1.0
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
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        "home_net_margin": -4.0,
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        "home_average_margin": -0.8,
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        "away_run_delta": 0.0231,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": 4.0
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          {
            "home_margin": 2.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -4.0
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          {
            "home_margin": 3.0
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            "home_margin": -9.0
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": false,
        "home": {
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          "games": 162,
          "wins": 81,
          "losses": 81,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "runs_scored": 734,
          "runs_allowed": 766,
          "run_differential": -32,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.19753086419753085,
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        },
        "away": {
          "team": "CHW",
          "games": 162,
          "wins": 84,
          "losses": 78,
          "win_pct": 0.5185185185185185,
          "runs_scored": 776,
          "runs_allowed": 720,
          "run_differential": 56,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.345679012345679,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.5432,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.0185,
        "quality_edge": -0.4495,
        "season_quality_edge": -0.571,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.571,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.224,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.4495
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
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          {
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "6": 0.12198529998967142,
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          "12": 0.013148207221788881,
          "13": 0.006551900846619801,
          "14": 0.00297514652921295
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        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.386695508645534,
      "home_runs": 4.599156950575839,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20261001_PHI@ATL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickATL

Published scorePHI 3 - 4 ATL

Final confidence51.7%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 53.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.2% · weight 50.0% · n=815

H2H base featurehome net 6.0 · absolute 6.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.559

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.198371940495707-4.84780796396016	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "ATL",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.033636,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.516818,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.516818,
    "away_win_probability": 0.483182
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.033636,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "ATL wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "PHI 3 - 4 ATL",
    "confidence": 0.5168183550000001,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 815,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.562,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.53605,
    "published_confidence": 0.516818,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 6.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 6.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.2,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0346,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0346,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 10.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.679,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.336,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.559
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02740861565572562
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.026070550743917793
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.0256506964568365
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.025310539900245163
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.025018712063658185
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08161421444373858,
      "1": 0.11860583380580444,
      "2": 0.14965362810803134,
      "3": 0.1639492378289185,
      "4": 0.1559453778305867,
      "5": 0.1287883457152115,
      "6": 0.09234674142840939,
      "7": 0.057492016163692754,
      "8": 0.031076668526830494,
      "9": 0.014584862021725622,
      "10": 0.005943074127050757
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08497667427160799,
      "1": 0.1232062343953657,
      "2": 0.15438034501055006,
      "3": 0.1671774508907848,
      "4": 0.15645511254894076,
      "5": 0.126540104449236,
      "6": 0.08844901211530055,
      "7": 0.053429874426288125,
      "8": 0.027893415048936672,
      "9": 0.012584779004367486,
      "10": 0.0049069978386219164
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "PHI 3 - 4 ATL",
      "winner": "ATL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "PHI 3 - 4 ATL",
      "winner": "ATL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.05,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.406,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "ATL",
      "model_winner": "ATL",
      "simulation_winner": "ATL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "ATL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "ATL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.559,
      "winner": "ATL",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "ATL",
    "display_confidence": 0.5168,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6441,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5168,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.559,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.336,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.05,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 8,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 1
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-8133e99fc8d4e4c7",
      "config_hash": "sha256:1ad22b058ac7f786856b2afec11660ade914953b5b660a1d45855a0be03d5ccc",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-27T09:06:54.240008+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
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      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20261003_ATL@LAD

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickLAD

Published scoreATL 4 - 5 LAD

Final confidence54.7%

Calibrationraw 59.8% → blended 59.0%

Empirical signalhit rate 58.2% · weight 50.0% · n=459

H2H base featurehome net -13.0 · absolute 13.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.6096

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.4669950633445845-5.887453590703506	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.093384,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.546692,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.546692,
    "away_win_probability": 0.453308
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.093384,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "ATL 4 - 5 LAD",
    "confidence": 0.546692285,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.597692,
    "sample_size": 459,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5817,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.589696,
    "published_confidence": 0.546692,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -13.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 13.0,
    "home_average_margin": -2.6,
    "home_run_delta": -0.075,
    "away_run_delta": 0.075,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.5802,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.664,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.6096
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.020286602876242513
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.019844809488443825
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.019833664882420794
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.01940173539406224
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.018704375468971954
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.052919983399183614,
      "1": 0.07836158878234728,
      "2": 0.10459581148303007,
      "3": 0.12584990209090946,
      "4": 0.13649570871625613,
      "5": 0.13344817567938594,
      "6": 0.11760717330278227,
      "7": 0.09342917414207082,
      "8": 0.06690502473180449,
      "9": 0.04318793992986577,
      "10": 0.025130074098572937,
      "11": 0.013181127990904703,
      "12": 0.0062321645628381364,
      "13": 0.002656151090048298
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06596937904702013,
      "1": 0.0968621198279498,
      "2": 0.12605182833747278,
      "3": 0.1453877903934454,
      "4": 0.14862447374381416,
      "5": 0.13465929312730648,
      "6": 0.10813491363944308,
      "7": 0.07696249740114328,
      "8": 0.04854851753850212,
      "9": 0.02714290963653067,
      "10": 0.013449942744312465,
      "11": 0.005907015046905457,
      "12": 0.0022993195161541756
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "ATL 4 - 5 LAD",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "ATL 4 - 5 LAD",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0282,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.314,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "model_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 4,
        "published_winner": "LAD",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6096,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "LAD",
    "display_confidence": 0.5467,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.572,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5467,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6096,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.664,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0282,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.25,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.75,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 4,
        "median": 5,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 5
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-27T09:06:54.240008+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
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        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
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        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
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        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.25,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
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        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
        "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
        "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
        "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
      }
    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
      "config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
      "config_hash": "sha256:da7e1fc0092c8fca4370044eb58fa5897f6ef528f3b1de083f3bc7a60a53c065",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:53760a5ddffc6f180dee92a59d27889f1cdba857749a59d2378ee233c5952253"
    },
    "changes": [
      {
        "parameter": "score.variance_multiplier",
        "old_value": 2.15,
        "new_value": 2.25,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-10-03T19:36:41.667038+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-10-03T20:00:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.564626,
      "confidence": 0.564626,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "total_runs": 8
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-27T09:06:54.240008+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.base_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
            "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
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            "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
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            "confidence.floor": 0.505,
            "score.variance_multiplier": 2.25,
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            "recent.window_games": 10,
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            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
            "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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            "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
            "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
            "simulation.allow_score": true,
            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
            "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
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            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
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            "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
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            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
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            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
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            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
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            "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
            "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
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            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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        }
      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.565064,
      "confidence": 0.565064,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "total_runs": 8
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
          "config_hash": "sha256:da7e1fc0092c8fca4370044eb58fa5897f6ef528f3b1de083f3bc7a60a53c065",
          "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-24T09:06:53.755755+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
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            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
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            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
            "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
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            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
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            "home_margin": -1.0
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        "away": {
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.5247,
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        "season_quality_edge": 0.5802,
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        "margin_adjustment": 0.256,
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        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
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        "adjusted_score": {
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          "home_win_probability": 0.8607
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      "score_distribution": {
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        "home_distribution": {
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        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
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      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.4669950633445845,
      "home_runs": 5.887453590703506,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20261003_CHW@CLE

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickCHW

Published scoreCHW 4 - 2 CLE

Final confidence52.3%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 53.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.2% · weight 50.0% · n=816

H2H base featurehome net -5.0 · absolute 5.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.1605

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.879317721946314-3.620441997905461	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-2	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-2	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-2	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-2	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHW",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "confidence": -0.045996,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.522998,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.477002,
    "away_win_probability": 0.522998
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.045996,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHW wins 4-2 (Extra Innings - 10)",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 2
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "predicted_score_text": "CHW 4 - 2 CLE",
    "confidence": 0.52299845,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 816,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5625,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5363,
    "published_confidence": 0.522998,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -5.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 5.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0288,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0288,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.2685,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.04,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.1605
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.024123071990349864
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.023947733670324038
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.023626350419972117
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.023454622515970646
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.021564449350636655
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07527066869262464,
      "1": 0.10984503663694313,
      "2": 0.14034756752826408,
      "3": 0.1569998111291837,
      "4": 0.15376700592243828,
      "5": 0.13185511270545647,
      "6": 0.0989921094020718,
      "7": 0.06506897582890725,
      "8": 0.03744701042906975,
      "9": 0.01886818476210655,
      "10": 0.00832363211363857,
      "11": 0.003214884849295648
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07239621156605851,
      "1": 0.10585436186611731,
      "2": 0.136034157903003,
      "3": 0.15365032490708377,
      "4": 0.1525335189774158,
      "5": 0.13308937714838545,
      "6": 0.1020628736012266,
      "7": 0.06879208733811652,
      "8": 0.04075261476169347,
      "9": 0.021218699733757104,
      "10": 0.009710203942530603,
      "11": 0.003905568254611897
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "CHW 4 - 2 CLE",
      "winner": "CHW"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "CHW 4 - 2 CLE",
      "winner": "CHW"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0059,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.03,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "winner": "CHW",
      "model_winner": "CHW",
      "simulation_winner": "CHW",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "CHW",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "CHW",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 2
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 2
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.1605,
      "winner": "CHW",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 2,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CHW",
    "display_confidence": 0.523,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5732,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.523,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
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          "5": 0.1344281761380107,
          "6": 0.10182467901872219,
          "7": 0.0673837133772981,
          "8": 0.038957939451698696,
          "9": 0.019677782838396673,
          "10": 0.008683513741047982,
          "11": 0.003347757375744387
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.879317721946314,
      "home_runs": 3.620441997905461,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20261003_NYY@TB

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickTB

Published scoreNYY 3 - 4 TB

Final confidence51.8%

Calibrationraw 49.0% → blended 52.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.2% · weight 50.0% · n=815

H2H base featurehome net -14.0 · absolute 14.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.1757

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.330188683970775-4.7654968017036134	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.03673,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.518365,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.518365,
    "away_win_probability": 0.481635
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.03673,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "NYY 3 - 4 TB",
    "confidence": 0.5183652275,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.490254,
    "sample_size": 815,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.562,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.526127,
    "published_confidence": 0.518365,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -14.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 14.0,
    "home_average_margin": -2.8,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0808,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0808,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -8.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.2853,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.028,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.1757
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02330248749325166
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.023222854227010863
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.023083427806788986
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.023004543148967774
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.02066254278454156
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06999058682318827,
      "1": 0.10249378597138088,
      "2": 0.1323218909937819,
      "3": 0.15060594794232982,
      "4": 0.15112238935098274,
      "5": 0.13368779528801952,
      "6": 0.10426318154822485,
      "7": 0.0716879971844097,
      "8": 0.043454842844252925,
      "9": 0.023222350849202135,
      "10": 0.010940834359288339,
      "11": 0.004544341558133142,
      "12": 0.0016640552868057948
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07285450579554124,
      "1": 0.1064917431133728,
      "2": 0.13672721079437586,
      "3": 0.15419612933151472,
      "4": 0.15274657782956022,
      "5": 0.13290735191451863,
      "6": 0.10157948820433715,
      "7": 0.06819342994486619,
      "8": 0.04021226616538831,
      "9": 0.020828311363539215,
      "10": 0.009476087743101751,
      "11": 0.0037868977998838016
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "NYY 3 - 4 TB",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "NYY 3 - 4 TB",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0269,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.182,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "TB",
      "model_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "TB",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "TB",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.1757,
      "winner": "TB",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "TB",
    "display_confidence": 0.5184,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5631,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5184,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.1757,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.028,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0269,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6667,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 5,
        "max": 7,
        "range": 2
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
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    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-27T09:06:54.240008+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
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        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
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        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
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        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
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        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
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        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
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        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
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        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
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        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
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        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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    "changes": [
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        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
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    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-10-03T21:36:36.193486+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-10-03T22:30:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.525419,
      "confidence": 0.525419,
      "predicted_score": {
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        "away_runs": 3,
        "total_runs": 7
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      "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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            "recent.window_games": 10,
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            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
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            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
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            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
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        }
      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.525493,
      "confidence": 0.525493,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 4,
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      },
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      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
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          "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
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          "parameters": {
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            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
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            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
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            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
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            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
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            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
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            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
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            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
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        "away": {
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.3263,
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        "recent_quality_blend": {
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      "score_distribution": {
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  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.330188683970775,
      "home_runs": 4.7654968017036134,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20261003_SD@MIL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickMIL

Published scoreSD 4 - 6 MIL

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 55.1% → blended 55.4%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.8% · weight 50.0% · n=285

H2H base featurehome net -7.0 · absolute 7.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.723

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.7426866281279048-6.328560068290372	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.53,
    "away_win_probability": 0.47
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL wins 6-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "SD 4 - 6 MIL",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.550696,
    "sample_size": 285,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5579,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.554298,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -7.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 7.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.4,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0404,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0404,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -9.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.179,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.124,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.723
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.015995938487533404
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01545657949509333
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.015329711421689577
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.015265038729009327
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.015112039256447262
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04163467869456087,
      "1": 0.062098513857551475,
      "2": 0.08470706519929076,
      "3": 0.105674573295292,
      "4": 0.12056848661537828,
      "5": 0.12580837579928966,
      "6": 0.12005983459530394,
      "7": 0.10478481837500872,
      "8": 0.0836395000878033,
      "9": 0.06105720656452228,
      "10": 0.04076381976334636,
      "11": 0.024890020459036263,
      "12": 0.013899144616141106,
      "13": 0.007098446816851556,
      "14": 0.0033155152606234553
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04305153530911173,
      "1": 0.0641529926971978,
      "2": 0.08726944454139246,
      "3": 0.10837385371575123,
      "4": 0.12285811176635984,
      "5": 0.12714525869925203,
      "6": 0.12011950047393098,
      "7": 0.1035962128712133,
      "8": 0.08156263641812865,
      "9": 0.058621327049306816,
      "10": 0.03846245932843129,
      "11": 0.023037506384625633,
      "12": 0.012596529304155715,
      "13": 0.006287577457857363,
      "14": 0.0028650539832850465
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "SD 4 - 6 MIL",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "SD 4 - 6 MIL",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.063,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.334,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "model_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 1,
        "published_winner": "MIL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "MIL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 6
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
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            "probability": 0.01600612908232132
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          {
            "home_runs": 4,
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            "probability": 0.015868665961028233
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 6,
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          },
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 6,
            "probability": 0.015632938973092324
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.040277067698500355,
          "1": 0.061201132930892466,
          "2": 0.08469727639798562,
          "3": 0.10675489428907307,
          "4": 0.12255033739202925,
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          "6": 0.12200933041632706,
          "7": 0.10581442098343832,
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          "11": 0.023509088440510216,
          "12": 0.012777016001065143,
          "13": 0.00632457655971716,
          "14": 0.002851292922950923
        },
        "away_distribution": {
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          "1": 0.0632885043482137,
          "2": 0.08733456943099766,
          "3": 0.10955279940624874,
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          "5": 0.1294869218537161,
          "6": 0.12200876701966072,
          "7": 0.10450380770009243,
          "8": 0.08136715592957079,
          "9": 0.05758934017152631,
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          "11": 0.021669848290650336,
          "12": 0.01152064176888656,
          "13": 0.005567669140326854,
          "14": 0.0024459417560354934
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.7426866281279048,
      "home_runs": 6.328560068290372,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20261004_ATL@LAD

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickLAD

Published scoreATL 3 - 4 LAD

Final confidence51.5%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 54.3%

Empirical signalhit rate 57.7% · weight 50.0% · n=482

H2H base featurehome net -13.0 · absolute 13.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.6096

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.87520551611148-5.056871594442494	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by opposing_starter_is_elite, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.029892,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.514946,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.514946,
    "away_win_probability": 0.485054
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.029892,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "ATL 3 - 4 LAD",
    "confidence": 0.51494642975,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 482,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5768,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.54345,
    "published_confidence": 0.514946,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -13.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 13.0,
    "home_average_margin": -2.6,
    "home_run_delta": -0.075,
    "away_run_delta": 0.075,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.5802,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.664,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.6096
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.028222820230211776
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.0265181780356338
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.026307011487808
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.026069515180494638
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02598831593214533
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0841529373742921,
      "1": 0.12208141372398842,
      "2": 0.15323247657232358,
      "3": 0.1664075752743024,
      "4": 0.15635665293570739,
      "5": 0.12711026918853163,
      "6": 0.08940584509052579,
      "7": 0.054409180861758805,
      "8": 0.028648340072565028,
      "9": 0.013051118710441978,
      "10": 0.005144190195562751
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08767011620706518,
      "1": 0.1268741591486834,
      "2": 0.15808782409360952,
      "3": 0.16960057367394443,
      "4": 0.15666062760377497,
      "5": 0.12459369260852138,
      "6": 0.08531706417814217,
      "7": 0.050301321878038256,
      "8": 0.025534452110624006,
      "9": 0.011160337784586449,
      "10": 0.0041998307130102904
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "ATL 3 - 4 LAD",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "ATL 3 - 4 LAD",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.073,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.314,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "model_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "LAD",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333,
        "draw_majority_team": "ATL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6096,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "LAD",
    "display_confidence": 0.5149,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.547,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5149,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6096,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.664,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.073,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.3333,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 4,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 5
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "config_hash": "sha256:1ad22b058ac7f786856b2afec11660ade914953b5b660a1d45855a0be03d5ccc",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-27T09:06:54.240008+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.25,
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
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        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
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        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
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        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
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        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
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        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
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        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
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        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
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        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
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        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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    "changes": [
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        "new_value": 2.25,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
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    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-10-04T23:36:30.645266+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.539404,
      "confidence": 0.539404,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "total_runs": 6
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.base_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
            "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
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            "confidence.floor": 0.505,
            "score.variance_multiplier": 2.25,
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            "recent.window_games": 10,
            "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
            "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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            "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
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            "simulation.allow_score": true,
            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
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        }
      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.539465,
      "confidence": 0.539465,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
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      },
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      "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
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          "parameters": {
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        "away": {
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.5247,
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        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
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        "adjusted_score": {
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  "score_evolution": [
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      "home_runs": 5.056871594442494,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 4,
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    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
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      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by opposing_starter_is_elite, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20261004_SD@MIL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickMIL

Published scoreSD 4 - 5 MIL

Final confidence55.4%

Calibrationraw 57.8% → blended 57.9%

Empirical signalhit rate 57.9% · weight 50.0% · n=437

H2H base featurehome net -7.0 · absolute 7.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.723

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.806406525760892-5.00975768773032	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, season_quality_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.107578,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.553789,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.553789,
    "away_win_probability": 0.446211
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.107578,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "SD 4 - 5 MIL",
    "confidence": 0.5537894025,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.578158,
    "sample_size": 437,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5789,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.578529,
    "published_confidence": 0.553789,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -7.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 7.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.4,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0404,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0404,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -9.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.179,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.124,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.723
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01951804457688806
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.0194654955380338
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.01896005841534769
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      {
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        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.018909011660001772
      },
      {
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        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.017843640828593545
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0495064378502637,
      "1": 0.07346909897918259,
      "2": 0.09871752985077217,
      "3": 0.12009650712701961,
      "4": 0.1322857318567977,
      "5": 0.1319295748639277,
      "6": 0.11912909770342466,
      "7": 0.09739576490685303,
      "8": 0.07209561052174608,
      "9": 0.04831968627849282,
      "10": 0.029321482112307024,
      "11": 0.016109952597631975,
      "12": 0.008013996291812242,
      "13": 0.003609529059768694
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06445252855479482,
      "1": 0.0947294456992689,
      "2": 0.12364614055302993,
      "3": 0.14332655645638626,
      "4": 0.14754459383432814,
      "5": 0.13488711577685256,
      "6": 0.10951362847898655,
      "7": 0.07896168391257363,
      "8": 0.05056094320504607,
      "9": 0.028751762044095786,
      "10": 0.014519922444994893,
      "11": 0.006512004030580646,
      "12": 0.002593675009061732
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "SD 4 - 5 MIL",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "SD 4 - 5 MIL",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0331,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.334,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
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    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
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      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "model_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "MIL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
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      "model_score": {
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      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
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    },
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      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
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      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
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    "internal_signal_score": 0.5505,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
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    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
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      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.1667,
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        "median": 4,
        "max": 8,
        "range": 6
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          "losses": 59,
          "win_pct": 0.6358024691358025,
          "runs_scored": 832,
          "runs_allowed": 618,
          "run_differential": 214,
          "run_differential_per_game": 1.3209876543209877,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "SD",
          "games": 162,
          "wins": 91,
          "losses": 71,
          "win_pct": 0.5617283950617284,
          "runs_scored": 722,
          "runs_allowed": 681,
          "run_differential": 41,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.25308641975308643,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 1.0679,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0741,
        "quality_edge": 0.723,
        "season_quality_edge": 1.179,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 1.179,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.124,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "conflict",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.723
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.3037,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": 0.3037,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": 0.723,
          "season_quality_edge": 1.179,
          "recent_alignment": "conflict",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 3.761,
          "home_runs": 4.108,
          "home_win_probability": 0.5295
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.020210479525141885
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 4,
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          {
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            "away_runs": 3,
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          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 3,
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          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 5,
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.04812598286342167,
          "1": 0.07274392694098249,
          "2": 0.09909534739282755,
          "3": 0.12166038313700543,
          "4": 0.13461222040448592,
          "5": 0.13423296672652735,
          "6": 0.12063498717932794,
          "7": 0.0977072451982791,
          "8": 0.07132136524140127,
          "9": 0.046919342742599325,
          "10": 0.027817851502051533,
          "11": 0.014863963898482217,
          "12": 0.007157891186457628,
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        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.06310726097832556,
          "1": 0.09442852502994749,
          "2": 0.12479005158576618,
          "3": 0.14564970373246197,
          "4": 0.1501385198491858,
          "5": 0.13668710257447841,
          "6": 0.10990458948297459,
          "7": 0.07804714164542526,
          "8": 0.04894981552102862,
          "9": 0.027114275196899823,
          "10": 0.013264711934463765,
          "11": 0.0057312655257767305,
          "12": 0.002187036943265806
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.806406525760892,
      "home_runs": 5.00975768773032,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, season_quality_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20261005_CHW@CLE

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickCLE

Published scoreCHW 4 - 5 CLE

Final confidence51.8%

Calibrationraw 54.0% → blended 55.2%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.4% · weight 50.0% · n=821

H2H base featurehome net -5.0 · absolute 5.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.1605

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.052590122814054-4.657560154846704	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.037,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.5185,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.5185,
    "away_win_probability": 0.4815
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.037,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "CHW 4 - 5 CLE",
    "confidence": 0.5184996125,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.539822,
    "sample_size": 821,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5639,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.551861,
    "published_confidence": 0.5185,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -5.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 5.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0288,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0288,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.2685,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.04,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.1605
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01744160494745018
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.017375707797229457
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.017334799164934776
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.017269305543902796
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.015876983281940128
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.048314403764278285,
      "1": 0.07175173601017976,
      "2": 0.09661848868951951,
      "3": 0.11796688312224266,
      "4": 0.13059664125373613,
      "5": 0.13109192735013284,
      "6": 0.11931414339498507,
      "7": 0.09846456002099437,
      "8": 0.07367836837057504,
      "9": 0.04998872879225278,
      "10": 0.030752202373672564,
      "11": 0.017153486031480765,
      "12": 0.008675621581975525,
      "13": 0.003978513588860975,
      "14": 0.0016542956551136854
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05009797024117762,
      "1": 0.07431848632840023,
      "2": 0.0997441633368908,
      "3": 0.12111335612248927,
      "4": 0.13304865753377382,
      "5": 0.13223391794855024,
      "6": 0.11890199614517424,
      "7": 0.09672736041242856,
      "8": 0.07119072868340738,
      "9": 0.0474036137658919,
      "10": 0.028557052144400165,
      "11": 0.015564286235275058,
      "12": 0.007674656641990396,
      "13": 0.003423754460150115
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CHW 4 - 5 CLE",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CHW 4 - 5 CLE",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.049,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.03,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "model_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "CLE",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.1605,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CLE",
    "display_confidence": 0.5185,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5507,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5185,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.1605,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.04,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.049,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 7,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 8,
        "range": 1
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
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      "config_hash": "sha256:1ad22b058ac7f786856b2afec11660ade914953b5b660a1d45855a0be03d5ccc",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-27T09:06:54.240008+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
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        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
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        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.25,
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
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        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
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        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
        "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
      "config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
      "config_hash": "sha256:da7e1fc0092c8fca4370044eb58fa5897f6ef528f3b1de083f3bc7a60a53c065",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:53760a5ddffc6f180dee92a59d27889f1cdba857749a59d2378ee233c5952253"
    },
    "changes": [
      {
        "parameter": "score.variance_multiplier",
        "old_value": 2.15,
        "new_value": 2.25,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
      "artifact_replay"
    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-10-05T20:36:46.416031+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-10-05T21:00:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.525605,
      "confidence": 0.525605,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "total_runs": 9
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
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    },
    {
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      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
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  ]
}

20261005_NYY@TB

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickNYY

Published scoreNYY 4 - 2 TB

Final confidence54.0%

Calibrationraw 48.5% → blended 53.2%

Empirical signalhit rate 57.9% · weight 50.0% · n=485

H2H base featurehome net -14.0 · absolute 14.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.1757

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.865776746263275-2.9974728665881125	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-3	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-2	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-2	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-2	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-2	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "confidence": -0.079238,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.539619,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.460381,
    "away_win_probability": 0.539619
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.079238,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY wins 4-2",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 2
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "predicted_score_text": "NYY 4 - 2 TB",
    "confidence": 0.5396185,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.484824,
    "sample_size": 485,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5794,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.532112,
    "published_confidence": 0.539619,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
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    "available": true,
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    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -14.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 14.0,
    "home_average_margin": -2.8,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0808,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0808,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
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        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
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    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
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  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
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    "recent_quality_edge": 0.028,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
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  "score_distribution": {
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          "magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
          "probability_after": 0.453316,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.546684
        },
        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": false,
          "min_starter_games": 32,
          "shrink_factor": 1.0
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 5,
        "sample_weight": 0.0577,
        "home_net_margin": -14.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 14.0,
        "home_average_margin": -2.8,
        "home_run_delta": -0.0808,
        "away_run_delta": 0.0808,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": -2.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -7.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 5.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -2.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -8.0
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        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
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          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": false,
        "home": {
          "team": "TB",
          "games": 162,
          "wins": 98,
          "losses": 64,
          "win_pct": 0.6049382716049383,
          "runs_scored": 736,
          "runs_allowed": 650,
          "run_differential": 86,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.5308641975308642,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "NYY",
          "games": 161,
          "wins": 93,
          "losses": 68,
          "win_pct": 0.577639751552795,
          "runs_scored": 739,
          "runs_allowed": 601,
          "run_differential": 138,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.8571428571428571,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.3263,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0273,
        "quality_edge": -0.1757,
        "season_quality_edge": -0.2853,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.2853,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.028,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "conflict",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.1757
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.029404536084336227
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          {
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          {
            "home_runs": 4,
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
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          "5": 0.12435763923324042,
          "6": 0.08320945243886314,
          "7": 0.047557478037813135,
          "8": 0.023217257845791626,
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        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.08357152097144716,
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          "3": 0.16986518769507755,
          "4": 0.15862289263463458,
          "5": 0.12717948897110548,
          "6": 0.08755037567428677,
          "7": 0.05174741746210887,
          "8": 0.026260867909650005,
          "9": 0.011442454603960817,
          "10": 0.004280741955067521
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.865776746263275,
      "home_runs": 2.9974728665881125,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20261006_LAD@ATL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickLAD

Published scoreLAD 4 - 3 ATL

Final confidence50.5%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 52.9%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.8% · weight 50.0% · n=566

H2H base featurehome net 13.0 · absolute 13.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.6096

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.807428442993566-4.634357958257989	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Kpi Layer	4-3	Savant KPI blend applied to the model target
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.010308,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.505154,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.494846,
    "away_win_probability": 0.505154
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.010308,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "LAD 4 - 3 ATL",
    "confidence": 0.5051535925,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 566,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5477,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5289,
    "published_confidence": 0.505154,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 13.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 13.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.6,
    "home_run_delta": 0.075,
    "away_run_delta": -0.075,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.5802,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.664,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.6096
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.030645802666319066
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02946651036732466
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.02904938315086207
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.027931523252938757
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.027649724807175473
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.09651524120900042,
      "1": 0.13880981486856983,
      "2": 0.16976707238023186,
      "3": 0.17656139578619717,
      "4": 0.1561518224534555,
      "5": 0.1174376550497356,
      "6": 0.07510635646569538,
      "7": 0.04084651673900808,
      "8": 0.018890452886973188,
      "9": 0.007429143078165037,
      "10": 0.002484529082967977
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.09247624117108566,
      "1": 0.1333806415151809,
      "2": 0.16452850874626485,
      "3": 0.17357023334494293,
      "4": 0.1566011906739639,
      "5": 0.12083718478680057,
      "6": 0.07974287036340168,
      "7": 0.045005838359221284,
      "8": 0.021723588845602795,
      "9": 0.00896767828065708,
      "10": 0.0031660239128782123
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "LAD 4 - 3 ATL",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "LAD 4 - 3 ATL",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0609,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.314,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "model_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "LAD",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333,
        "draw_majority_team": "ATL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6096,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "LAD",
    "display_confidence": 0.5052,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.587,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5052,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6096,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.664,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0609,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.3333,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 7,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 2
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-8133e99fc8d4e4c7",
      "config_hash": "sha256:1ad22b058ac7f786856b2afec11660ade914953b5b660a1d45855a0be03d5ccc",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-27T09:06:54.240008+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.25,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
        "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
        "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
        "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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    },
    "kpi_runtime_version": "kpi_runtime_v4",
    "advanced_matchup_version": "advanced_individual_matchup_v1"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
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      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.807428442993566,
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      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "kpi_layer",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Savant KPI blend applied to the model target"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20261006_MIL@SD

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickSD

Published scoreMIL 4 - 5 SD

Final confidence56.6%

Calibrationraw 72.1% → blended 64.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 57.1% · weight 50.0% · n=357

H2H base featurehome net 7.0 · absolute 7.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.723

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.5313164191848228-4.700193372781561	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
Kpi Layer	4-5	Savant KPI blend applied to the model target
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "SD",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.13286,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.56643,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.56643,
    "away_win_probability": 0.43357
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.13286,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "SD wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "MIL 4 - 5 SD",
    "confidence": 0.56643005,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.721177,
    "sample_size": 357,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5714,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.646289,
    "published_confidence": 0.56643,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 7.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 7.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.4,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0404,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0404,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 9.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.179,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.124,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.723
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.018282124026797165
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.0179107370638165
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01776986977420475
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.01740888885326085
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.017259590176132676
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0389874502520409,
      "1": 0.05824723506129995,
      "2": 0.07985226113532017,
      "3": 0.10045245258024885,
      "4": 0.11595655216022074,
      "5": 0.12282632708420077,
      "6": 0.1193848063786763,
      "7": 0.1064800082848269,
      "8": 0.08714621228882287,
      "9": 0.06544709553767908,
      "10": 0.04510177796389759,
      "11": 0.028520581104462383,
      "12": 0.01654948562479533,
      "13": 0.008811950576144362,
      "14": 0.00430547456486219,
      "15": 0.0019303294025015856
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06629352928927651,
      "1": 0.0973172818966363,
      "2": 0.12656304685032707,
      "3": 0.14582164499259354,
      "4": 0.14884532054975702,
      "5": 0.1346004460418045,
      "6": 0.10783405412559349,
      "7": 0.07653559947514474,
      "8": 0.04812482508240616,
      "9": 0.026808527516015153,
      "10": 0.01323045798596238,
      "11": 0.00578462108436347,
      "12": 0.002240645110119733
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "MIL 4 - 5 SD",
      "winner": "SD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "MIL 4 - 5 SD",
      "winner": "SD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0494,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.334,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "SD",
      "model_winner": "SD",
      "simulation_winner": "SD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 5,
        "published_winner": "SD",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6,
        "draw_majority_team": "SD",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.723,
      "winner": "SD",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "SD",
    "display_confidence": 0.5664,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5527,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5664,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.723,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.124,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0494,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.2,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.4,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 4,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 8,
        "range": 4
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-8133e99fc8d4e4c7",
      "config_hash": "sha256:1ad22b058ac7f786856b2afec11660ade914953b5b660a1d45855a0be03d5ccc",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-27T09:06:54.240008+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.25,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
        "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
        "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
        "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
      }
    },
    "kpi_runtime_version": "kpi_runtime_v4",
    "advanced_matchup_version": "advanced_individual_matchup_v1"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.5313164191848228,
      "home_runs": 4.700193372781561,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "kpi_layer",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Savant KPI blend applied to the model target"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20261007_CLE@CHW

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickCLE

Published scoreCLE 5 - 4 CHW

Final confidence53.5%

Calibrationraw 53.5% → blended 55.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 58.2% · weight 45.0% · n=464

H2H base featurehome net 5.0 · absolute 5.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.1605

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.629906778357269-2.801656780983749	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-3	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Kpi Layer	5-4	Savant KPI blend applied to the model target
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.070258,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.535129,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.464871,
    "away_win_probability": 0.535129
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.070258,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "CLE 5 - 4 CHW",
    "confidence": 0.5351286725,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.534519,
    "sample_size": 464,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5819,
    "empirical_weight": 0.45,
    "empirical_max_weight": 0.45,
    "empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
    "blended_confidence": 0.555841,
    "published_confidence": 0.535129,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 5.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 5.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0288,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0288,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.2685,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.04,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.1605
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.017682571406886477
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01766788067777547
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01748964662303455
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.017475116176366247
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01615689013542389
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05092677718783937,
      "1": 0.07550747472048212,
      "2": 0.10117696873421211,
      "3": 0.12252405090665044,
      "4": 0.1340938918974087,
      "5": 0.1326308674019953,
      "6": 0.11855726976450373,
      "7": 0.09577667025838944,
      "8": 0.0699260899971712,
      "9": 0.04613884521810992,
      "10": 0.02751326694257132,
      "11": 0.014827419282536827,
      "12": 0.007221658384356077,
      "13": 0.003178749303773532
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04918643147186386,
      "1": 0.0730093256033763,
      "2": 0.09816074872009906,
      "3": 0.11954292874158819,
      "4": 0.13186709071293787,
      "5": 0.13175753517015262,
      "6": 0.11924522642548871,
      "7": 0.09775366459122385,
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          "12": 0.008203342191200962,
          "13": 0.003713999967213697
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.629906778357269,
      "home_runs": 2.801656780983749,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "kpi_layer",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Savant KPI blend applied to the model target"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20261007_LAD@ATL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickLAD

Published scoreLAD 6 - 4 ATL

Final confidence50.7%

Calibrationraw 53.5% → blended 54.0%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.7% · weight 45.0% · n=612

H2H base featurehome net 13.0 · absolute 13.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.6096

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.695043839817618-3.9708099350753012	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Kpi Layer	5-4	Savant KPI blend applied to the model target
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.014354,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.507177,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.492823,
    "away_win_probability": 0.507177
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.014354,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD wins 6-4",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "LAD 6 - 4 ATL",
    "confidence": 0.50717655,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.534804,
    "sample_size": 612,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5474,
    "empirical_weight": 0.45,
    "empirical_max_weight": 0.45,
    "empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
    "blended_confidence": 0.540472,
    "published_confidence": 0.507177,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 13.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 13.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.6,
    "home_run_delta": 0.075,
    "away_run_delta": -0.075,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.5802,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.664,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.6096
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.029489293489311747
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.027917437096966608
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.02755127327653959
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.027151150086434102
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.026653902819991263
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.09211252309380141,
      "1": 0.13288998686610193,
      "2": 0.16404895161360217,
      "3": 0.17328552273421471,
      "4": 0.15662414851489012,
      "5": 0.12113308721911,
      "6": 0.08016309371442268,
      "7": 0.045393510879338794,
      "8": 0.02199483451469634,
      "9": 0.00911916858374983,
      "10": 0.003235172266072179
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08833595639220453,
      "1": 0.1277785247823392,
      "2": 0.15899350875836135,
      "3": 0.17017747948016648,
      "4": 0.15668446883516363,
      "5": 0.12409405660453059,
      "6": 0.08454290824049321,
      "7": 0.04954553863778199,
      "8": 0.024976587112597547,
      "9": 0.010830856563193806,
      "10": 0.004040114593167503
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "LAD 6 - 4 ATL",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "LAD 6 - 4 ATL",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1387,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.314,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "model_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "LAD",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "LAD",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6096,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "LAD",
    "display_confidence": 0.5072,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.62,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5072,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6096,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.664,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.1387,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3333,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 4,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 6
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "created_at_utc": "2026-10-07T09:21:29.935210+00:00",
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
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        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
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        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
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        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
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        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
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        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
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        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
        "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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    },
    "kpi_runtime_version": "kpi_runtime_v4",
    "advanced_matchup_version": "advanced_individual_matchup_v1"
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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    "changes": [
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        "new_value": 0.45,
        "risk_tier": "low",
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    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-10-07T21:47:28.239847+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-10-07T22:00:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.491557,
      "confidence": 0.508443,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "total_runs": 9
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      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance"
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
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      "predicted_score": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
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            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
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            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
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            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
            "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
            "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
            "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
            "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
          }
        },
        "kpi_runtime_version": "kpi_runtime_v4",
        "advanced_matchup_version": "advanced_individual_matchup_v1"
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
      "confidence_calibration": {
        "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.534804,
        "sample_size": 612,
        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5474,
        "empirical_weight": 0.5,
        "empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "blended_confidence": 0.541102
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      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.535551,
        "final_confidence": 0.5084,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5084,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.981429,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
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        "score_gap": 0.1,
        "calibration_sample_size": 612,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5474,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.546,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.6096,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 4,
            "home_runs": 3
          },
          "margin": -1,
          "probability_before": 0.491557,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.427612,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.981429,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": false,
          "magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
          "probability_after": 0.491557,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.508443
        },
        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": false,
          "min_starter_games": 13,
          "shrink_factor": 1.0
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 5,
        "sample_weight": 0.0577,
        "home_net_margin": 13.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 13.0,
        "home_average_margin": 2.6,
        "home_run_delta": 0.075,
        "away_run_delta": -0.075,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 5.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 5.0
          }
        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
          "h2h.history_limit": 5,
          "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "home": {
          "team": "ATL",
          "games": 162,
          "wins": 94,
          "losses": 68,
          "win_pct": 0.5802469135802469,
          "runs_scored": 742,
          "runs_allowed": 626,
          "run_differential": 116,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.7160493827160493,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "LAD",
          "games": 162,
          "wins": 100,
          "losses": 62,
          "win_pct": 0.6172839506172839,
          "runs_scored": 801,
          "runs_allowed": 600,
          "run_differential": 201,
          "run_differential_per_game": 1.2407407407407407,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.5247,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.037,
        "quality_edge": -0.6096,
        "season_quality_edge": -0.5802,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.5802,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.664,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.6096
        },
        "margin_adjustment": -0.256,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": -0.256,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": -0.6096,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.5802,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 3.853,
          "home_runs": 1.95,
          "home_win_probability": 0.3382
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.029489293489311747
          },
          {
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            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.027917437096966608
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          {
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          {
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            "probability": 0.027151150086434102
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.026653902819991263
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.09211252309380141,
          "1": 0.13288998686610193,
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          "3": 0.17328552273421471,
          "4": 0.15662414851489012,
          "5": 0.12113308721911,
          "6": 0.08016309371442268,
          "7": 0.045393510879338794,
          "8": 0.02199483451469634,
          "9": 0.00911916858374983,
          "10": 0.003235172266072179
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        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.08833595639220453,
          "1": 0.1277785247823392,
          "2": 0.15899350875836135,
          "3": 0.17017747948016648,
          "4": 0.15668446883516363,
          "5": 0.12409405660453059,
          "6": 0.08454290824049321,
          "7": 0.04954553863778199,
          "8": 0.024976587112597547,
          "9": 0.010830856563193806,
          "10": 0.004040114593167503
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.695043839817618,
      "home_runs": 3.9708099350753012,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "kpi_layer",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Savant KPI blend applied to the model target"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20261007_MIL@SD

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickMIL

Published scoreMIL 6 - 5 SD

Final confidence50.5%

Calibrationraw 50.4% → blended 52.4%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.9% · weight 45.0% · n=567

H2H base featurehome net 7.0 · absolute 7.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.723

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.316793501587018-3.9583418010956	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
Kpi Layer	4-5	Savant KPI blend applied to the model target
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": -0.01,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.505,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.495,
    "away_win_probability": 0.505
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.01,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL wins 6-5",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "MIL 6 - 5 SD",
    "confidence": 0.505,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.504492,
    "sample_size": 567,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5485,
    "empirical_weight": 0.45,
    "empirical_max_weight": 0.45,
    "empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
    "blended_confidence": 0.524296,
    "published_confidence": 0.505,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 7.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 7.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.4,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0404,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0404,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 9.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.179,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.124,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.723
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02027699864654153
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.019270353943855057
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.019194832702538276
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.019163729559404433
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.019112176732514634
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.057878380388167616,
      "1": 0.08543432439696529,
      "2": 0.11296422029027611,
      "3": 0.13379562991725308,
      "4": 0.14195001672048477,
      "5": 0.13490295640999328,
      "6": 0.11484179887848654,
      "7": 0.0875731569195755,
      "8": 0.059818363148433945,
      "9": 0.03660079712742226,
      "10": 0.02006037572285571,
      "11": 0.009848726603451263,
      "12": 0.004331253476634715
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.058821078416750536,
      "1": 0.08677233064039432,
      "2": 0.11452137735737351,
      "3": 0.13522247581227848,
      "4": 0.14284604619997457,
      "5": 0.13500336246624,
      "6": 0.1141505391270846,
      "7": 0.08635119834475068,
      "8": 0.058440751389698314,
      "9": 0.03538508423048862,
      "10": 0.01916821608854328,
      "11": 0.009289667716227187,
      "12": 0.004027872210195613
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "MIL 6 - 5 SD",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "MIL 6 - 5 SD",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0447,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.334,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "model_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "MIL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.1667,
        "draw_majority_team": "SD",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.723,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "MIL",
    "display_confidence": 0.505,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5591,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.505,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.723,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.124,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0447,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.1667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.1667,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 2,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 9
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-668e4305abca59bc",
      "config_hash": "sha256:02895b398be5e25b874cb24573f6272d7b4e2c440e5dad0b021995c628ed5ed3",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-8133e99fc8d4e4c7",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-10-07T09:21:29.935210+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.45,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.25,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
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      "home_runs": 5,
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    },
    {
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      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
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  ]
}

20261007_TB@NYY

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickNYY

Published scoreTB 3 - 4 NYY

Final confidence54.4%

Calibrationraw 48.4% → blended 52.1%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.7% · weight 45.0% · n=393

H2H base featurehome net 14.0 · absolute 14.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.1757

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.959661691282892-5.5685220273548195	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Kpi Layer	3-4	Savant KPI blend applied to the model target
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.088032,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.544016,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.544016,
    "away_win_probability": 0.455984
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.088032,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "TB 3 - 4 NYY",
    "confidence": 0.54401626125,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.483821,
    "sample_size": 393,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5674,
    "empirical_weight": 0.45,
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    "empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
    "blended_confidence": 0.521431,
    "published_confidence": 0.544016,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 14.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 14.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.8,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0808,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0808,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 8.0
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    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
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  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.2853,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.028,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.1757
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  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.024571149423370492
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.024254044154911086
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        "probability": 0.02206000976023823
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    "home_distribution": {
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          "9": 0.020198454734309753,
          "10": 0.00910154219490888,
          "11": 0.003598748691889274
        },
        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.0765518225234127,
          "1": 0.11161827464051573,
          "2": 0.14224436687248906,
          "3": 0.15843635751042914,
          "4": 0.15423915001522223,
          "5": 0.13123642713898623,
          "6": 0.0975964845844931,
          "7": 0.06343573149970959,
          "8": 0.036037423291023184,
          "9": 0.017893426383670735,
          "10": 0.007765211553087446,
          "11": 0.002945323986960967
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.959661691282892,
      "home_runs": 5.5685220273548195,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "kpi_layer",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Savant KPI blend applied to the model target"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20261008_CLE@CHW

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickCLE

Published scoreCLE 5 - 4 CHW

Final confidence50.5%

Calibrationraw 50.6% → blended 52.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.0% · weight 45.0% · n=571

H2H base featurehome net 5.0 · absolute 5.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.1605

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.711918501925803-5.140895541166179	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Kpi Layer	5.0-4.0	Savant KPI blend computed and withheld; baseline kept
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.01,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.505,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.495,
    "away_win_probability": 0.505
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.01,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "CLE 5 - 4 CHW",
    "confidence": 0.505,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.506495,
    "sample_size": 571,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5499,
    "empirical_weight": 0.45,
    "empirical_max_weight": 0.45,
    "empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
    "blended_confidence": 0.526027,
    "published_confidence": 0.505,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 5.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 5.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0288,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0288,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.2685,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.04,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.1605
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02104144036995725
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02021519902748303
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      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02008076628165565
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01967980397901703
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01951169966886091
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.062047030815691795,
      "1": 0.09133807824158416,
      "2": 0.11978568715517415,
      "3": 0.13995234508474366,
      "4": 0.14567251698748013,
      "5": 0.13508193125053283,
      "6": 0.1115935492546071,
      "7": 0.08213024396284029,
      "8": 0.053850448884133796,
      "9": 0.0314555827554185,
      "10": 0.016369233199743146,
      "11": 0.007588940168275316,
      "12": 0.003134412239775193
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.060592352614690516,
      "1": 0.08928173969288443,
      "2": 0.11742419497162294,
      "3": 0.13784869443411552,
      "4": 0.14444344619764937,
      "5": 0.13509620336077818,
      "6": 0.11278168145877458,
      "7": 0.08403962477505829,
      "8": 0.055895875457698856,
      "9": 0.03318375581463857,
      "10": 0.017584152181858034,
      "11": 0.008317014274801904,
      "12": 0.003511264765428741
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "CLE 5 - 4 CHW",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "CLE 5 - 4 CHW",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0005,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.03,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "model_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "CLE",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333,
        "draw_majority_team": "CHW",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.1605,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CLE",
    "display_confidence": 0.505,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.505,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.505,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.1605,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.04,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0005,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.3333,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3333,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6667,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 5,
        "max": 8,
        "range": 3
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-8133e99fc8d4e4c7",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-10-07T09:21:29.935210+00:00",
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
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        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
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        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
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        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
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        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
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        "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
        "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
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        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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    },
    "kpi_runtime_version": "kpi_runtime_v4",
    "advanced_matchup_version": "advanced_individual_matchup_v1"
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:da7e1fc0092c8fca4370044eb58fa5897f6ef528f3b1de083f3bc7a60a53c065"
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    "changes": [
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        "new_value": 0.45,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
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    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-10-08T23:38:01.798765+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.495,
      "confidence": 0.505,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "total_runs": 8
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance"
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
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      "confidence": 0.505,
      "predicted_score": {
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        "away_runs": 5,
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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            "score.variance_multiplier": 2.25,
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            "recent.window_games": 10,
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            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
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            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
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            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
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            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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        },
        "kpi_runtime_version": "kpi_runtime_v4",
        "advanced_matchup_version": "advanced_individual_matchup_v1"
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          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
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        "starter_experience": {
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      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
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        "home": {
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        "away": {
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.2778,
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        "season_quality_edge": 0.2685,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
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        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
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      "score_distribution": {
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        "home_distribution": {
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        "away_distribution": {
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        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
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      "evaluation_eligible": true,
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    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
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      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "kpi_layer",
      "away_runs": 5.0,
      "home_runs": 4.0,
      "description": "Savant KPI blend computed and withheld; baseline kept"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20261008_TB@NYY

Official result pending · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Official result pending

PickTB

Published scoreTB 4 - 3 NYY

Final confidence50.5%

Calibrationraw 46.0% → blended 50.0%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.9% · weight 45.0% · n=567

H2H base featurehome net 14.0 · absolute 14.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.1757

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.377499254087203-4.138449437843917	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Kpi Layer	4.0-3.0	Savant KPI blend computed and withheld; baseline kept
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.010308,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.505154,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.494846,
    "away_win_probability": 0.505154
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.010308,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "TB 4 - 3 NYY",
    "confidence": 0.5051535924999999,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.4601,
    "sample_size": 567,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5485,
    "empirical_weight": 0.45,
    "empirical_max_weight": 0.45,
    "empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
    "blended_confidence": 0.49988,
    "published_confidence": 0.505154,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 14.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 14.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.8,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0808,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0808,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 8.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.2853,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.028,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.1757
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02977446606730336
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.028291716375412546
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      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.027913743424468507
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      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02728175686900735
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02677285189521744
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.09316346975850749,
      "1": 0.13430692565689223,
      "2": 0.1654310887117755,
      "3": 0.17410122001670134,
      "4": 0.156549782210955,
      "5": 0.12027326143197681,
      "6": 0.07894991642777797,
      "7": 0.04427924713997791,
      "8": 0.02121850338921779,
      "9": 0.008687508358355809,
      "10": 0.003039076897862196
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08932475304197016,
      "1": 0.12911979264795462,
      "2": 0.16033054462105878,
      "3": 0.1710181356824905,
      "4": 0.1567005496365289,
      "5": 0.12333925586552884,
      "6": 0.08339395675466021,
      "7": 0.048436225047839905,
      "8": 0.02416620463792515,
      "9": 0.01035735975013837,
      "10": 0.003813222313904249
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "TB 4 - 3 NYY",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "TB 4 - 3 NYY",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0258,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.182,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "TB",
      "model_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 1,
        "published_winner": "TB",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "TB",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.1757,
      "winner": "TB",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "TB",
    "display_confidence": 0.5052,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5823,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5052,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.1757,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.028,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0258,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 7,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 7,
        "range": 0
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-668e4305abca59bc",
      "config_hash": "sha256:02895b398be5e25b874cb24573f6272d7b4e2c440e5dad0b021995c628ed5ed3",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-8133e99fc8d4e4c7",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-10-07T09:21:29.935210+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.base_cap": 0.56,
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        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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    },
    {
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    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20261010_CHW@CLE

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickCLE

Published scoreCHW 5 - 6 CLE

Final confidence52.7%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 53.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.8% · weight 45.0% · n=739

H2H base featurehome net -5.0 · absolute 5.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.1605

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.082329953276532-4.859910801686279	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Kpi Layer	5.0-6.0	Savant KPI blend computed and withheld; baseline kept
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
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  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.05369,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.526845,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.526845,
    "away_win_probability": 0.473155
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.05369,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE wins 6-5",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "CHW 5 - 6 CLE",
    "confidence": 0.52684521,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
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    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 739,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5683,
    "empirical_weight": 0.45,
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    "empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
    "blended_confidence": 0.53629,
    "published_confidence": 0.526845,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -5.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 5.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0288,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0288,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
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  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.2685,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.04,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.1605
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  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.016105061651613514
      },
      {
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        "away_runs": 4,
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.042088349881007514,
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      "3": 0.10654430703624167,
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          "12": 0.013469261618018659,
          "13": 0.006828622676162745,
          "14": 0.003164317171555586
        },
        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.04352501688314665,
          "1": 0.06483872848411987,
          "2": 0.08812143769079438,
          "3": 0.10926478149299158,
          "4": 0.12360338722333046,
          "5": 0.12756516237063895,
          "6": 0.12011170812532926,
          "7": 0.10317872177202496,
          "8": 0.08086237384618969,
          "9": 0.057816842870782106,
          "10": 0.037714973125808106,
          "11": 0.022445266965423996,
          "12": 0.012186732856621793,
          "13": 0.006036724414603299,
          "14": 0.002728141878195012
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.082329953276532,
      "home_runs": 4.859910801686279,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "kpi_layer",
      "away_runs": 5.0,
      "home_runs": 6.0,
      "description": "Savant KPI blend computed and withheld; baseline kept"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20261011_LAD@MIL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickMIL

Published scoreLAD 2 - 4 MIL

Final confidence54.8%

Calibrationraw 53.1% → blended 55.1%

Empirical signalhit rate 57.5% · weight 45.0% · n=699

H2H base featurehome net 2.0 · absolute 2.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.003

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.160308109584837-4.808204291274732	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Kpi Layer	3.0-4.0	Savant KPI blend computed and withheld; baseline kept
Embedded Savant Run Environment	2-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	2-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	2-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	2-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.096482,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.548241,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.548241,
    "away_win_probability": 0.451759
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.096482,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL wins 4-2",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "LAD 2 - 4 MIL",
    "confidence": 0.548241,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.530967,
    "sample_size": 699,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5751,
    "empirical_weight": 0.45,
    "empirical_max_weight": 0.45,
    "empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
    "blended_confidence": 0.550827,
    "published_confidence": 0.548241,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 2.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.4,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0115,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0115,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.108,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.192,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.003
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03048065635123685
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.02971535938338882
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.028474146349854255
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.028068515824689066
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.027759228087842477
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0883022901355031,
      "1": 0.12773282088661514,
      "2": 0.15894781869253627,
      "3": 0.170148519285485,
      "4": 0.1566835159676033,
      "5": 0.12411948811684768,
      "6": 0.08458204397897527,
      "7": 0.0495835832699874,
      "8": 0.025004557568802155,
      "9": 0.010847308031820524,
      "10": 0.004048054065823897
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.10039091841867395,
      "1": 0.14398554966485957,
      "2": 0.17464365548506877,
      "3": 0.17914147286873916,
      "4": 0.15539924025947524,
      "5": 0.1140016310590986,
      "6": 0.07072658059672843,
      "7": 0.03710766966550577,
      "8": 0.016464711487228424,
      "9": 0.006178086592985461,
      "10": 0.001960483901636488
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "LAD 2 - 4 MIL",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "LAD 2 - 4 MIL",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0718,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.122,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "model_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "MIL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.1667,
        "draw_majority_team": "LAD",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.003,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "MIL",
    "display_confidence": 0.5482,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5511,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5482,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.003,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.192,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0718,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.1667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.1667,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6667,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 5,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 6
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-668e4305abca59bc",
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-8133e99fc8d4e4c7",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-10-07T09:21:29.935210+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.25,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
        "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
        "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
        "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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    },
    "kpi_runtime_version": "kpi_runtime_v4",
    "advanced_matchup_version": "advanced_individual_matchup_v1"
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
      "config_id": "candidate-8133e99fc8d4e4c7",
      "config_hash": "sha256:1ad22b058ac7f786856b2afec11660ade914953b5b660a1d45855a0be03d5ccc",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:da7e1fc0092c8fca4370044eb58fa5897f6ef528f3b1de083f3bc7a60a53c065"
    },
    "changes": [
      {
        "parameter": "confidence.empirical_max_weight",
        "old_value": 0.5,
        "new_value": 0.45,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-10-11T23:37:56.792344+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.548241,
      "confidence": 0.548241,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "total_runs": 6
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance"
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.548241,
      "confidence": 0.548241,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "total_runs": 6
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "config_id": "candidate-8133e99fc8d4e4c7",
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          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-27T09:06:54.240008+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
            "confidence.base_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
            "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
            "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
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            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
            "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
            "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
            "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
            "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
            "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
            "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
          }
        },
        "kpi_runtime_version": "kpi_runtime_v4",
        "advanced_matchup_version": "advanced_individual_matchup_v1"
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
      "confidence_calibration": {
        "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.530967,
        "sample_size": 699,
        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5751,
        "empirical_weight": 0.5,
        "empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "blended_confidence": 0.553033
      },
      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.553033,
        "final_confidence": 0.5482,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5482,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.983682,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 0.3006,
        "calibration_sample_size": 699,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5751,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5732,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.003,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 3,
            "home_runs": 4
          },
          "margin": 1,
          "probability_before": 0.548241,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.572388,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.983682,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": false,
          "magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
          "probability_after": 0.548241,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.548241
        },
        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": false,
          "min_starter_games": 27,
          "shrink_factor": 1.0
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 5,
        "sample_weight": 0.0577,
        "home_net_margin": 2.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
        "home_average_margin": 0.4,
        "home_run_delta": 0.0115,
        "away_run_delta": -0.0115,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": 4.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 3.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -2.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -4.0
          }
        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
          "h2h.history_limit": 5,
          "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": false,
        "home": {
          "team": "MIL",
          "games": 162,
          "wins": 103,
          "losses": 59,
          "win_pct": 0.6358024691358025,
          "runs_scored": 832,
          "runs_allowed": 618,
          "run_differential": 214,
          "run_differential_per_game": 1.3209876543209877,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "LAD",
          "games": 162,
          "wins": 100,
          "losses": 62,
          "win_pct": 0.6172839506172839,
          "runs_scored": 801,
          "runs_allowed": 600,
          "run_differential": 201,
          "run_differential_per_game": 1.2407407407407407,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.0802,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0185,
        "quality_edge": 0.003,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.108,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 0.108,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.192,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "conflict",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.003
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.03048065635123685
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 2,
            "probability": 0.02971535938338882
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 2,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.028474146349854255
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.028068515824689066
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 2,
            "away_runs": 2,
            "probability": 0.027759228087842477
          }
        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.0883022901355031,
          "1": 0.12773282088661514,
          "2": 0.15894781869253627,
          "3": 0.170148519285485,
          "4": 0.1566835159676033,
          "5": 0.12411948811684768,
          "6": 0.08458204397897527,
          "7": 0.0495835832699874,
          "8": 0.025004557568802155,
          "9": 0.010847308031820524,
          "10": 0.004048054065823897
        },
        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.10039091841867395,
          "1": 0.14398554966485957,
          "2": 0.17464365548506877,
          "3": 0.17914147286873916,
          "4": 0.15539924025947524,
          "5": 0.1140016310590986,
          "6": 0.07072658059672843,
          "7": 0.03710766966550577,
          "8": 0.016464711487228424,
          "9": 0.006178086592985461,
          "10": 0.001960483901636488
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.160308109584837,
      "home_runs": 4.808204291274732,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "kpi_layer",
      "away_runs": 3.0,
      "home_runs": 4.0,
      "description": "Savant KPI blend computed and withheld; baseline kept"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

Every reviewed game

Date	Game	Pick	Final confidence	Raw confidence	Empirical hit rate	Empirical weight	Pred A-H	Actual A-H	Result	Largest recorded movement	Pipeline	Roadmap signals
20260922	20260922_ARI@COL	ARI	56.0%	69.7%	56.3%	50.0%	6.0-5.0	7-2	hit	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.697207, "sample_size": 279, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5627, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.629953, "published_confidence": 0.56, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -15.0, "absolute_net_margin": 15.0, "home_average_margin": -3.0, "home_run_delta": -0.0865, "away_run_delta": 0.0865, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -9.0 }, { "home_margin": -8.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.3686, "recent_quality_edge": -0.464, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -1.052 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.014872093677049792 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.014580299872657028 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.014555154468836562 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.014269579082598903 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.014099756147751085 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04433457063819088, "1": 0.06718185094711822, "2": 0.09221158195566188, "3": 0.11464180885414929, "4": 0.1290995226709389, "5": 0.131683176038459, "6": 0.12166341378159322, "7": 0.10181546600938646, "8": 0.07717765132408078, "9": 0.05298993807964911, "10": 0.03295484820746812, "11": 0.018563902066131982, "12": 0.009472034498917405, "13": 0.0043776528938096896, "14": 0.0018325820344451786 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.026677289003250705, "1": 0.04091487465484983, "2": 0.05822439066992085, "3": 0.07687991160668393, "4": 0.09419004280344724, "5": 0.10707332988105597, "6": 0.11293844912053376, "7": 0.11053161768049721, "8": 0.10037265881311314, "9": 0.08457237497808905, "10": 0.06611893060429451, "11": 0.04796310724042085, "12": 0.032282933864722724, "13": 0.020161501758287712, "14": 0.011683069372580426, "15": 0.006281671609572164, "16": 0.0031338463386800085 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "ARI 6 - 5 COL", "winner": "ARI" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "ARI 6 - 5 COL", "winner": "ARI" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0433, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.534, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "ARI", "model_winner": "ARI", "simulation_winner": "ARI", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 1, "published_winner": "ARI", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "ARI", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 1.052, "winner": "ARI", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260922	20260922_CHW@KC	CHW	50.5%	51.0%	54.2%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	14-11	hit	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 496, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5423, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5262, "published_confidence": 0.505257, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -26.0, "absolute_net_margin": 26.0, "home_average_margin": -5.2, "home_run_delta": -0.15, "away_run_delta": 0.15, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -21.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.0481, "recent_quality_edge": -0.432, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.8325 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.021807817430817302 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020960150209752837 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.020734233527767796 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02037449857523685 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020092586061961053 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.06116472027796691, "1": 0.09164343066544639, "2": 0.12159270098928096, "3": 0.14286291105780963, "4": 0.14864055127496822, "5": 0.13694965478614174, "6": 0.11173529985197553, "7": 0.08072827604465013, "8": 0.05164957830671835, "9": 0.029262653469393298, "10": 0.014681365512963784, "11": 0.006522664194862652, "12": 0.002566193567822169 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.058895360538108926, "1": 0.08837995436562997, "2": 0.11780859344363724, "3": 0.13949244233770236, "4": 0.14671512749219628, "5": 0.13707227536815528, "6": 0.11375614294534321, "7": 0.08385917860026602, "8": 0.05491321355903247, "9": 0.0319413762657908, "10": 0.016503683998116553, "11": 0.007574582214063306, "12": 0.003088068871957489 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "CHW 5 - 4 KC", "winner": "CHW" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "CHW 5 - 4 KC", "winner": "CHW" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0249, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.642, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "CHW", "model_winner": "CHW", "simulation_winner": "CHW", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "CHW", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "CHW", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.8325, "winner": "CHW", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260922	20260922_CIN@ATL	ATL	60.0%	90.1%	57.1%	50.0%	6.0-9.0	4-0	miss	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.901014, "sample_size": 126, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5714, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.736207, "published_confidence": 0.6, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 3, "sample_weight": 0.0409, "home_net_margin": 6.0, "absolute_net_margin": 6.0, "home_average_margin": 2.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0409, "away_run_delta": -0.0409, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 2.0064, "recent_quality_edge": 1.128, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 1.699 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 8, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.013024453660000096 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.012772416561326525 }, { "home_runs": 8, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01269729685044871 }, { "home_runs": 9, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.012515392949979368 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.012451590585700547 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.016116702600689085, "1": 0.02490995211028489, "2": 0.03628007093187812, "3": 0.04979226664230673, "4": 0.06439530435130399, "5": 0.07847747801299296, "6": 0.0901227447486903, "7": 0.09752642761708144, "8": 0.09945090899792158, "9": 0.0955638706876568, "10": 0.08653209954290154, "11": 0.07383449090780747, "12": 0.059366283621663865, "13": 0.044979950660993646, "14": 0.032114164019068976, "15": 0.021605921898896013, "16": 0.013697695792725801, "17": 0.008183154789438997, "18": 0.0046067277806289214, "19": 0.002443784285068975 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04340882314886424, "1": 0.06582015012131745, "2": 0.09051208544681454, "3": 0.11288107081659562, "4": 0.1276740150330257, "5": 0.13096364619726394, "6": 0.12183325462307243, "7": 0.10278926968216114, "8": 0.07864960777096333, "9": 0.054577317757111214, "10": 0.0343474627689033, "11": 0.019603967825542603, "12": 0.01014752539829474, "13": 0.004763686352404122, "14": 0.0020281170576656473 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 9, "score_text": "CIN 6 - 9 ATL", "winner": "ATL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 9, "score_text": "CIN 6 - 9 ATL", "winner": "ATL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0595, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 1.2447, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 9, "winner": "ATL", "model_winner": "ATL", "simulation_winner": "ATL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "ATL", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.8333, "draw_majority_team": "ATL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 3, "simulation_margin": 3, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 9 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 9 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 3, "final_margin": 3, "winner_quality_edge": 1.699, "winner": "ATL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 9, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260922	20260922_CLE@BOS	BOS	50.5%	51.0%	54.2%	50.0%	3.0-4.0	3-2	miss	Enhanced Prediction (-2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 496, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5423, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5262, "published_confidence": 0.505257, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 3, "sample_weight": 0.0409, "home_net_margin": 12.0, "absolute_net_margin": 12.0, "home_average_margin": 4.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0818, "away_run_delta": -0.0818, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": 8.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.5288, "recent_quality_edge": -0.62, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.1268 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03157208015782883 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.030249493781464746 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.029805065934887402 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.02855650157184715 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.028413358903600743 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.09495160569035592, "1": 0.13893679527320696, "2": 0.17169881659860178, "3": 0.1792059344800353, "4": 0.15796924183297922, "5": 0.11760552933150305, "6": 0.07394656572403184, "7": 0.03926841190560274, "8": 0.01761179929515767, "9": 0.006671126533095452, "10": 0.002134173335429836 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.09089296935682557, "1": 0.13339233051126315, "2": 0.16631740472974058, "3": 0.17617764863331667, "4": 0.1585514396386587, "5": 0.12122601825343864, "6": 0.07874586577641476, "7": 0.04345762162669757, "8": 0.02037560050200403, "9": 0.008116357165078681, "10": 0.0027467438065618024 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "CLE 3 - 4 BOS", "winner": "BOS" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "CLE 3 - 4 BOS", "winner": "BOS" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0272, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.5033, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "BOS", "model_winner": "BOS", "simulation_winner": "BOS", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "BOS", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333, "draw_majority_team": "CLE", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.1268, "winner": "BOS", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260922	20260922_HOU@SEA	SEA	60.0%	72.7%	55.9%	50.0%	3.0-5.0	7-0	miss	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.72737, "sample_size": 236, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5593, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.643335, "published_confidence": 0.6, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 7.0, "absolute_net_margin": 7.0, "home_average_margin": 1.4, "home_run_delta": 0.0404, "away_run_delta": -0.0404, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.0192, "recent_quality_edge": 0.76, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.2535 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.018994785139768024 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.018888997995317458 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.018778225703798314 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.018673644637972303 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.017619029641146693 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.03521310791219545, "1": 0.05368904465261698, "2": 0.07506452916104552, "3": 0.09623911567851039, "4": 0.11314523081517074, "5": 0.12198000643035156, "6": 0.12058931307963641, "7": 0.10931927952471, "8": 0.09087668374629834, "9": 0.06927490682343743, "10": 0.048424729153996086, "11": 0.031040322193049103, "12": 0.01824538411396884, "13": 0.009834393268892872, "14": 0.004860824062102793, "15": 0.0022031293840174084 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.07066150348715038, "1": 0.10519062513444784, "2": 0.13688777232459132, "3": 0.15572047990187401, "4": 0.1548532300340773, "5": 0.13461339000861963, "6": 0.10229389414641456, "7": 0.0679523717788645, "8": 0.03945962788198028, "9": 0.02003063921448361, "10": 0.008888533008135602, "11": 0.0034479330793607994 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "HOU 3 - 5 SEA", "winner": "SEA" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "HOU 3 - 5 SEA", "winner": "SEA" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0779, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.83, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "SEA", "model_winner": "SEA", "simulation_winner": "SEA", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "SEA", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "SEA", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.2535, "winner": "SEA", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260922	20260922_LAA@OAK	LAA	53.0%	59.0%	55.6%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	7-9	miss	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.589632, "sample_size": 608, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5559, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.572766, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -9.0, "absolute_net_margin": 9.0, "home_average_margin": -1.8, "home_run_delta": -0.0519, "away_run_delta": 0.0519, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 6.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -7.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.8622, "recent_quality_edge": -0.352, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.6836 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01802074068732686 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01740953005386772 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.01723162970667973 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01717736037965188 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.0166932069363516 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05343477770460599, "1": 0.08048449357157093, "2": 0.10848806793669231, "3": 0.13086794555365955, "4": 0.14127526964097756, "5": 0.13648362713595566, "6": 0.1179985082313575, "7": 0.09129647901469569, "8": 0.06321397362774946, "9": 0.03917001191984276, "10": 0.021720802514359438, "11": 0.010779027522363118, "12": 0.004787015626169971 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.03971920077593216, "1": 0.060376326773134426, "2": 0.08365085414937108, "3": 0.10563591005741368, "4": 0.12158787892109253, "5": 0.12755764496590888, "6": 0.12197201782357538, "7": 0.10630444649981503, "8": 0.0844462091392718, "9": 0.06114295053772614, "10": 0.04035061256743805, "11": 0.02427120720779267, "12": 0.013306692762599024, "13": 0.0066494601431591385, "14": 0.0030285876757699254 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "LAA 5 - 4 OAK", "winner": "LAA" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "LAA 5 - 4 OAK", "winner": "LAA" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1275, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.562, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "LAA", "model_winner": "LAA", "simulation_winner": "LAA", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "LAA", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "LAA", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.6836, "winner": "LAA", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260922	20260922_MIA@CHC	CHC	53.0%	72.5%	56.7%	50.0%	4.0-6.0	8-2	miss	Variance Applied (0.1009)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.72548, "sample_size": 127, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5669, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.64619, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 3, "sample_weight": 0.0409, "home_net_margin": -1.0, "absolute_net_margin": 1.0, "home_average_margin": -0.333, "home_run_delta": -0.0068, "away_run_delta": 0.0068, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -7.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.0994, "recent_quality_edge": 0.632, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.9358 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.016554876461835046 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.015943673999542773 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.015904028239450838 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01579770167309165 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.015482868722313478 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.028705909740914637, "1": 0.043963329549083094, "2": 0.06229504340851287, "3": 0.08166953162028669, "4": 0.09906273005129254, "5": 0.11117424159533772, "6": 0.115436118136999, "7": 0.11089779418987658, "8": 0.09857068107377329, "9": 0.08106180355582282, "10": 0.06167773583081951, "11": 0.043419442045870386, "12": 0.028280280295517657, "13": 0.017042246250201187, "14": 0.009501969203178097, "15": 0.004901669849660955, "16": 0.0023394736028526835 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.05544302104473786, "1": 0.08339519829268809, "2": 0.11195117495432373, "3": 0.13412499460470845, "4": 0.14341158321165826, "5": 0.13685232947926243, "6": 0.11655035738501873, "7": 0.08858669026079548, "8": 0.060092018709979406, "9": 0.036379653875476474, "10": 0.0196559384248341, "11": 0.009478125489816877, "12": 0.004078914266700017 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "MIA 4 - 6 CHC", "winner": "CHC" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "MIA 4 - 6 CHC", "winner": "CHC" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0872, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.7487, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "CHC", "model_winner": "CHC", "simulation_winner": "CHC", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "CHC", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "CHC", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.9358, "winner": "CHC", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260922	20260922_MIL@PHI	MIL	60.0%	81.3%	55.6%	50.0%	7.0-4.0	4-6	miss	Enhanced Prediction (4.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.812507, "sample_size": 721, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5562, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.684354, "published_confidence": 0.6, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 3, "sample_weight": 0.0409, "home_net_margin": -9.0, "absolute_net_margin": 9.0, "home_average_margin": -3.0, "home_run_delta": -0.0614, "away_run_delta": 0.0614, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -6.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.2244, "recent_quality_edge": -1.008, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -1.1486 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.014573059704334214 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.01439655865740624 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.014198771249244232 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.014026803382411362 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 8, "probability": 0.013980176561421193 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04966418821007597, "1": 0.0749909075192434, "2": 0.10183792629263153, "3": 0.12437874054997568, "4": 0.1366213058608974, "5": 0.13496662221817937, "6": 0.1199140291307264, "7": 0.09581848101364855, "8": 0.0688595591096189, "9": 0.04450562079397098, "10": 0.02587028174140091, "11": 0.01352455932659124, "12": 0.0063588818806453, "13": 0.002688896352394295 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.02151953985864243, "1": 0.03312541893606156, "2": 0.04765974437656828, "3": 0.0640920213014814, "4": 0.08055975903916963, "5": 0.094644259841805, "6": 0.10392794271561771, "7": 0.10666754802630818, "8": 0.10232793833529358, "9": 0.09175253390277009, "10": 0.07689601609543746, "11": 0.060235364633589535, "12": 0.04410229377193126, "13": 0.030180938645310643, "14": 0.01930484138237003, "15": 0.011541484249777918, "16": 0.006449395635557363, "17": 0.003368513606918416, "18": 0.0016444456453896439 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "MIL 7 - 4 PHI", "winner": "MIL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "MIL 7 - 4 PHI", "winner": "MIL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0042, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.1247, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "MIL", "model_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "MIL", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 3, "simulation_margin": 3, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 3, "final_margin": 3, "winner_quality_edge": 1.1486, "winner": "MIL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260922	20260922_MIN@SF	MIN	51.5%	51.0%	55.6%	50.0%	5.0-3.0	3-2	hit	Embedded Savant Run Environment (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 721, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5562, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.53315, "published_confidence": 0.515422, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 1, "sample_weight": 0.0167, "home_net_margin": 3.0, "absolute_net_margin": 3.0, "home_average_margin": 3.0, "home_run_delta": 0.025, "away_run_delta": -0.025, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.1656, "recent_quality_edge": -0.048, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.1244 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020135194409712124 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019499377959703138 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.019264884419349954 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.018792848496616832 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01865655006845656 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05501378994339653, "1": 0.08277375958986602, "2": 0.1112144360187515, "3": 0.13343722828716215, "4": 0.14296845598147795, "5": 0.13678888438085227, "6": 0.11687153663434066, "7": 0.08916903504656427, "8": 0.06075286252311291, "9": 0.0369629640914412, "10": 0.020082334712323294, "11": 0.009743365132333955, "12": 0.00422134765837743 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.053040287839271005, "1": 0.07991178015129281, "2": 0.10780297291264077, "3": 0.13021639543229116, "4": 0.14083662211698436, "5": 0.13638937222788045, "6": 0.11826615020043019, "7": 0.09182382688577015, "8": 0.0638359486426912, "9": 0.039736557849543344, "10": 0.02214777845188687, "11": 0.011053125379188124, "12": 0.0049391819101295515 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "MIN 5 - 3 SF", "winner": "MIN" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "MIN 5 - 3 SF", "winner": "MIN" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0596, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.302, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "MIN", "model_winner": "MIN", "simulation_winner": "MIN", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 5, "published_winner": "MIN", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.8, "draw_majority_team": "MIN", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.1244, "winner": "MIN", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260922	20260922_NYM@TEX	TEX	60.1%	60.9%	57.1%	50.0%	4.0-6.0	6-3	miss	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.609047, "sample_size": 634, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.571, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.590023, "published_confidence": 0.600919, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": false, "sample_size": 0, "home_net_margin": 0.0, "home_average_margin": 0.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0, "away_run_delta": 0.0 }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.1122, "recent_quality_edge": 0.404, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.2143 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.016642182831584123 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.016460461032581333 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01616913016613526 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.015992573794183618 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.015492401343453503 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.03219874046114436, "1": 0.04919334962504984, "2": 0.06920126974715787, "3": 0.08963175247116709, "4": 0.10689314838767018, "5": 0.11737564890221065, "6": 0.11867146400941878, "7": 0.11047264454756091, "8": 0.09468983445323256, "9": 0.07472950757442277, "10": 0.054302652034029016, "11": 0.03633206782962772, "12": 0.022382023577241537, "13": 0.01269546866560099, "14": 0.006630377923597569, "15": 0.0031883646493194432, "16": 0.001411685141548513 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.05251036502724695, "1": 0.07914195912844203, "2": 0.10688018789179013, "3": 0.12933506109467954, "4": 0.14023744436373733, "5": 0.13625120664940932, "6": 0.11861657441633451, "7": 0.09252925180707822, "8": 0.06467573538053574, "9": 0.04050721197602574, "10": 0.022732750324085744, "11": 0.011431422165958261, "12": 0.005150829774676596 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "NYM 4 - 6 TEX", "winner": "TEX" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "NYM 4 - 6 TEX", "winner": "TEX" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0279, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.404, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "TEX", "model_winner": "TEX", "simulation_winner": "TEX", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "TEX", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "TEX", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.2143, "winner": "TEX", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260922	20260922_SD@LAD	LAD	53.0%	51.0%	56.0%	50.0%	4.0-6.0	0-7	hit	Embedded Savant Run Environment (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 384, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5599, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.535, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 8.0, "absolute_net_margin": 8.0, "home_average_margin": 1.6, "home_run_delta": 0.0462, "away_run_delta": -0.0462, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.0609, "recent_quality_edge": -0.276, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.593 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.018526113511337337 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01844343441079805 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.018245728185989026 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01816430040059957 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.016906251202667363 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04839716585087043, "1": 0.07314040621783151, "2": 0.09958061757233241, "3": 0.12214403755870143, "4": 0.13497388158224374, "5": 0.13437151459800353, "6": 0.1205159966244335, "7": 0.09737830032134678, "8": 0.07088587303120207, "9": 0.04648760842535588, "10": 0.02746595633600156, "11": 0.014619491110093271, "12": 0.007010512935224367, "13": 0.0030286378363596138 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.05016788973826385, "1": 0.07572568406498245, "2": 0.1027307489173719, "3": 0.1252557235850542, "4": 0.13725702553829872, "5": 0.1351796953018006, "6": 0.11965427515758538, "7": 0.09518858134499898, "8": 0.06805834208498521, "9": 0.04373385427286586, "10": 0.025257712679724494, "11": 0.013110225469352164, "12": 0.00611598173706504, "13": 0.0025642601076510244 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "SD 4 - 6 LAD", "winner": "LAD" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "SD 4 - 6 LAD", "winner": "LAD" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0408, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.066, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "LAD", "model_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 5, "published_winner": "LAD", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "LAD", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.593, "winner": "LAD", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260922	20260922_STL@PIT	PIT	53.9%	56.4%	56.1%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	0-2	hit	Variance Applied (0.0556)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5636, "sample_size": 663, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5611, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.56235, "published_confidence": 0.538662, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 13.0, "absolute_net_margin": 13.0, "home_average_margin": 2.6, "home_run_delta": 0.075, "away_run_delta": -0.075, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": 7.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.3622, "recent_quality_edge": 0.28, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.3334 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01874553281085251 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01833624081403006 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.017967726703155436 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01757541740926132 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.0174712590381 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04396234046024391, "1": 0.06663453256853556, "2": 0.09152929969611466, "3": 0.11393657421528262, "4": 0.12853115450458066, "5": 0.1314001598484035, "6": 0.121737845739038, "7": 0.10221098289907057, "8": 0.0777699376415623, "9": 0.053625106843242114, "10": 0.033509413290951785, "11": 0.01897613280276835, "12": 0.00973847226835575, "13": 0.004529144599490551, "14": 0.001908902622359785 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.054718993236023666, "1": 0.08234674000013913, "2": 0.11070735658696271, "3": 0.13296223580136135, "4": 0.1426598935075821, "5": 0.13674052393760266, "6": 0.11708852677323993, "7": 0.08956806700028855, "8": 0.06120879356446644, "9": 0.03736768518102923, "10": 0.02037981930997646, "11": 0.009929473495083193, "12": 0.004321891606244724 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "STL 4 - 5 PIT", "winner": "PIT" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "STL 4 - 5 PIT", "winner": "PIT" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0264, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.49, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "PIT", "model_winner": "PIT", "simulation_winner": "PIT", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 1, "published_winner": "PIT", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "PIT", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.3334, "winner": "PIT", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260922	20260922_TB@NYY	NYY	53.5%	51.0%	57.4%	50.0%	3.0-4.0	0-2	hit	Variance Applied (-0.3977)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 418, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5742, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.54215, "published_confidence": 0.534918, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 9.0, "absolute_net_margin": 9.0, "home_average_margin": 1.8, "home_run_delta": 0.0519, "away_run_delta": -0.0519, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 8.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.2903, "recent_quality_edge": -0.304, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.0823 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.023775234282643852 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02367872370940118 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.023560423806430014 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.023464785211227662 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.021061008414578045 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.06754021958834518, "1": 0.1007549116457567, "2": 0.1319418697833856, "3": 0.15167419255236253, "4": 0.1530570711371964, "5": 0.13558378541339447, "6": 0.1054325622477747, "7": 0.07197048287670531, "8": 0.04312674904601812, "9": 0.02268567345106441, "10": 0.010475367804362895, "11": 0.004246191086855278, "12": 0.0015109233667785398 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.07034955035165352, "1": 0.10474893686872565, "2": 0.136401658457503, "3": 0.1553357457188786, "4": 0.15470519286349196, "5": 0.1347473104393432, "6": 0.10264009569004623, "7": 0.06837474506458452, "8": 0.03983420195671947, "9": 0.020295429696302256, "10": 0.009043199450248899, "11": 0.003523933442502917 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TB 3 - 4 NYY", "winner": "NYY" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TB 3 - 4 NYY", "winner": "NYY" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0798, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.234, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "NYY", "model_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 4, "published_winner": "NYY", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.75, "draw_majority_team": "NYY", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.0823, "winner": "NYY", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260922	20260922_TB@NYY_2	NYY	52.1%	50.4%	55.5%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	6-1	miss	Variance Applied (0.5833)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.504257, "sample_size": 762, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5551, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.529678, "published_confidence": 0.520635, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 9.0, "absolute_net_margin": 9.0, "home_average_margin": 1.8, "home_run_delta": 0.0519, "away_run_delta": -0.0519, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 8.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.2903, "recent_quality_edge": -0.304, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.0823 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.022092924850034907 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.021284458417206026 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.021184364443087446 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02041682621654047 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.020409145785109578 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.06067321029767718, "1": 0.09093750372560319, "2": 0.12077757988224637, "3": 0.14214345206270018, "4": 0.14823973656526146, "5": 0.1369934022037784, "6": 0.11218425522710192, "7": 0.08140693571068353, "8": 0.052346559973183784, "9": 0.029827175299175477, "10": 0.015060290439319932, "11": 0.00673832275010708, "12": 0.0026715758631615637 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.06165952217048613, "1": 0.09235358455625822, "2": 0.12241078831571468, "3": 0.14358132920612482, "4": 0.1490351059839388, "5": 0.13689624270669776, "6": 0.11127735977704364, "7": 0.08004504140791005, "8": 0.05095354339301746, "9": 0.028702959934685895, "10": 0.014308407990409822, "11": 0.0063120187751364255, "12": 0.0024640957825761683 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "TB 4 - 5 NYY", "winner": "NYY" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "TB 4 - 5 NYY", "winner": "NYY" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.01, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.234, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "NYY", "model_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "NYY", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "NYY", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.0823, "winner": "NYY", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260922	20260922_TOR@BAL	BAL	50.5%	46.0%	54.0%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	Official result pending	void_not_final_or_postponed	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.4601, "sample_size": 537, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.54, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.50005, "published_confidence": 0.505, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -9.0, "absolute_net_margin": 9.0, "home_average_margin": -1.8, "home_run_delta": -0.0519, "away_run_delta": 0.0519, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -7.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.0732, "recent_quality_edge": 0.084, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.077 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.019711135626987467 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01924440871194041 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019020526557902075 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.018570152117233833 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.01827554822520005 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.051715975310095946, "1": 0.07798689904068565, "2": 0.10549152798020964, "3": 0.12800074930416933, "4": 0.13931774596445773, "5": 0.13601893340409593, "6": 0.11912181142802214, "7": 0.09357982120272393, "8": 0.06594352089316804, "9": 0.04168319981470023, "10": 0.02363463867400586, "11": 0.012020869500518176, "12": 0.005484307483147256 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.05362387796355451, "1": 0.08075891581216933, "2": 0.10881591009391336, "3": 0.13117889683531375, "4": 0.14148330846535592, "5": 0.13652622949236148, "6": 0.11786819762214445, "7": 0.09104305992191383, "8": 0.06291681157408341, "9": 0.03890059309204045, "10": 0.021518668570036772, "11": 0.010649868058703613, "12": 0.0047156624984091055 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "TOR 4 - 5 BAL", "winner": "BAL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "TOR 4 - 5 BAL", "winner": "BAL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0618, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.014, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "BAL", "model_winner": "BAL", "simulation_winner": "BAL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "BAL", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "BAL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.077, "winner": "BAL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260922	20260922_WAS@DET	DET	57.1%	61.6%	56.7%	50.0%	3.0-4.0	3-1	miss	Variance Applied (0.0405)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.616347, "sample_size": 393, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5674, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.591873, "published_confidence": 0.570934, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 1, "sample_weight": 0.0167, "home_net_margin": 7.0, "absolute_net_margin": 7.0, "home_average_margin": 7.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0583, "away_run_delta": -0.0583, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 7.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.4554, "recent_quality_edge": 0.268, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.3898 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.025470097967550422 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.024126602974034805 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02390978252831813 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.023858124491298892 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.023173075846142116 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.058118244752888314, "1": 0.0872600001411821, "2": 0.11650069114566232, "3": 0.13830961328279126, "4": 0.14601141337460236, "5": 0.1370666553731697, "6": 0.11441616809899034, "7": 0.08492851976049325, "8": 0.05605705569211429, "9": 0.03290164292623421, "10": 0.017171785655444628, "11": 0.007969368439503811, "12": 0.0032888413569236268 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.08874361652502007, "1": 0.1304409439883232, "2": 0.16339903806073863, "3": 0.17443908923890167, "4": 0.15870729082451926, "5": 0.12305767302666601, "6": 0.08131661118718718, "7": 0.04579400181298885, "8": 0.02197843046858572, "9": 0.008989664958653396, "10": 0.0031336399084159355 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "WAS 3 - 4 DET", "winner": "DET" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "WAS 3 - 4 DET", "winner": "DET" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0174, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.618, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "DET", "model_winner": "DET", "simulation_winner": "DET", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 4, "published_winner": "DET", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.3898, "winner": "DET", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260923	20260923_ARI@COL	ARI	56.0%	72.2%	57.2%	50.0%	8.0-6.0	5-3	hit	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.722452, "sample_size": 404, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5718, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.647126, "published_confidence": 0.56, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -19.0, "absolute_net_margin": 19.0, "home_average_margin": -3.8, "home_run_delta": -0.1096, "away_run_delta": 0.1096, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -9.0 }, { "home_margin": -8.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.4331, "recent_quality_edge": -0.692, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -1.1737 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 8, "probability": 0.011876227288395186 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.01181141618102686 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 8, "probability": 0.011669517029546652 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.011605833984184471 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 9, "probability": 0.011231529654019846 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.03133078058064224, "1": 0.047895916008792484, "2": 0.06749714789133111, "3": 0.08768635762751262, "4": 0.10501184984535128, "5": 0.11593224804297034, "6": 0.11798583645979839, "7": 0.11069172724362424, "8": 0.0957326592215859, "9": 0.07632463765434222, "10": 0.056095632556326505, "11": 0.03800607474519219, "12": 0.0237375917623808, "13": 0.013667213070291367, "14": 0.007254090067968854, "15": 0.00354932356115918, "16": 0.0016009136607305395 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.01732148090983171, "1": 0.0267469578074641, "2": 0.03884611978513611, "3": 0.0530645855626612, "4": 0.06817824029166457, "5": 0.08238927439435863, "6": 0.09364389032151396, "7": 0.10010876335187396, "8": 0.10065807595848, "9": 0.09519388081676051, "10": 0.084674632243266, "11": 0.07084047837104991, "12": 0.055743409782368136, "13": 0.041256222003809594, "14": 0.028718996415014884, "15": 0.018803250973204073, "16": 0.011579251994234223, "17": 0.0067067473655147425, "18": 0.00365365274803657, "19": 0.0018720889037568476 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "ARI 8 - 6 COL", "winner": "ARI" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "ARI 8 - 6 COL", "winner": "ARI" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0699, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.762, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "ARI", "model_winner": "ARI", "simulation_winner": "ARI", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 5, "published_winner": "ARI", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.8, "draw_majority_team": "ARI", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 1.1737, "winner": "ARI", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260923	20260923_CHW@KC	CHW	56.0%	76.5%	57.1%	50.0%	7.0-5.0	4-5	miss	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.764902, "sample_size": 126, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5714, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.668151, "published_confidence": 0.56, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -28.0, "absolute_net_margin": 28.0, "home_average_margin": -5.6, "home_run_delta": -0.1615, "away_run_delta": 0.1615, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -21.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.0892, "recent_quality_edge": -0.808, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.9908 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.014623176521049525 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.014541144216070228 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.014424947272671566 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.014344026983411657 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.013678310791373428 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.045350592442246505, "1": 0.06867439606633506, "2": 0.09406664049656167, "3": 0.11654813274634858, "4": 0.1306182638967934, "5": 0.13241323477517913, "6": 0.12141931668994559, "7": 0.10071011102584146, "8": 0.07555918521019622, "9": 0.05127791503994807, "10": 0.031477653605286836, "11": 0.017478463275965073, "12": 0.008778757286678622, "13": 0.003988335998930155, "14": 0.0016390014437435974 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.02496139514822111, "1": 0.038330112224489093, "2": 0.05474682405637539, "3": 0.0727319737847022, "4": 0.08987510707924219, "5": 0.10330017852518643, "6": 0.11043591334263393, "7": 0.10981639592718391, "8": 0.10157144935809512, "9": 0.08738234930386402, "10": 0.06992353688302537, "11": 0.0520439993459087, "12": 0.036030106156880744, "13": 0.023201070546832396, "14": 0.013896265769510351, "15": 0.007741690453538015, "16": 0.004011632094310968 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CHW 7 - 5 KC", "winner": "CHW" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CHW 7 - 5 KC", "winner": "CHW" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.039, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.018, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "CHW", "model_winner": "CHW", "simulation_winner": "CHW", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "CHW", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "CHW", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.9908, "winner": "CHW", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260923	20260923_CIN@ATL	ATL	56.0%	75.9%	55.4%	50.0%	5.0-6.0	2-3	hit	Enhanced Prediction (-2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.75887, "sample_size": 121, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5537, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.656285, "published_confidence": 0.56, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 4, "sample_weight": 0.05, "home_net_margin": 2.0, "absolute_net_margin": 2.0, "home_average_margin": 0.5, "home_run_delta": 0.0125, "away_run_delta": -0.0125, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.9331, "recent_quality_edge": 0.54, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 1.4455 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.014215125159353467 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.014166902609712172 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.0136843743479561 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.013637952285968825 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.013429520238450196 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.02472316477656004, "1": 0.037970796844360055, "2": 0.05426149908013398, "3": 0.07214899620474399, "4": 0.08926171512859812, "5": 0.10275349208436824, "6": 0.11005870085582817, "7": 0.10968534422998204, "8": 0.10171131092392653, "9": 0.0877579217489532, "10": 0.07045305611915645, "11": 0.05262714039105129, "12": 0.036577678362493676, "13": 0.02365478090534481, "14": 0.014233711266652916, "15": 0.007969183049951705, "16": 0.004151508027894962 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04133693599231088, "1": 0.0627664765832162, "2": 0.08667648405047348, "3": 0.10885763404287177, "4": 0.12433705142387608, "5": 0.12915948533659893, "6": 0.12202143159987186, "7": 0.10484071995972806, "8": 0.0819233950309519, "9": 0.058219699231453745, "10": 0.037628425093683034, "11": 0.022118017346524823, "12": 0.011823890946036423, "13": 0.005748555188812926, "14": 0.00254179817358978 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "CIN 5 - 6 ATL", "winner": "ATL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "CIN 5 - 6 ATL", "winner": "ATL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0723, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.54, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "ATL", "model_winner": "ATL", "simulation_winner": "ATL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 5, "published_winner": "ATL", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.4, "draw_majority_team": "CIN", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 1.4455, "winner": "ATL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260923	20260923_CLE@BOS	CLE	50.5%	55.6%	54.3%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	0-1	miss	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.556082, "sample_size": 505, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5426, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.549341, "published_confidence": 0.505259, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 4, "sample_weight": 0.05, "home_net_margin": 11.0, "absolute_net_margin": 11.0, "home_average_margin": 2.75, "home_run_delta": 0.0687, "away_run_delta": -0.0687, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": 8.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.5032, "recent_quality_edge": -0.768, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.0583 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01863432237596184 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.018517030991005178 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.018316966586225936 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01820167275714231 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.017030505865193023 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.050484642274007493, "1": 0.07618748945279427, "2": 0.10329086982192219, "3": 0.1258038982757299, "4": 0.13765124859936692, "5": 0.135306949739123, "6": 0.11948515316183642, "7": 0.09478981545486732, "8": 0.06755590295280613, "9": 0.04325325750701611, "10": 0.02487873136497316, "11": 0.012855575784166556, "12": 0.005967723972350543, "13": 0.0024887416390399634 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04869959809874009, "1": 0.07358240133095455, "2": 0.1001209193138949, "3": 0.12268119365350502, "4": 0.1353734351527527, "5": 0.1345213441899018, "6": 0.12037914086599143, "7": 0.0970093451577408, "8": 0.07040089799310074, "9": 0.04600924608588262, "10": 0.02707785930569593, "11": 0.014351121130309, "12": 0.0068495119102241955, "13": 0.0029439858113061656 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "CLE 5 - 4 BOS", "winner": "CLE" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "CLE 5 - 4 BOS", "winner": "CLE" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0603, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.768, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "CLE", "model_winner": "CLE", "simulation_winner": "CLE", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "CLE", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333, "draw_majority_team": "BOS", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.0583, "winner": "CLE", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260923	20260923_HOU@SEA	SEA	51.5%	54.4%	55.2%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	5-6	hit	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.543922, "sample_size": 777, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5521, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.548011, "published_confidence": 0.515298, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 1.0, "absolute_net_margin": 1.0, "home_average_margin": 0.2, "home_run_delta": 0.0058, "away_run_delta": -0.0058, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -7.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.1178, "recent_quality_edge": 0.456, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.083 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.0210384582645494 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020000968130966065 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.019934624309460386 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019742111532827122 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.0197336691337355 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05605565356775576, "1": 0.08428152267928186, "2": 0.1129994590778465, "3": 0.13509876981990634, "4": 0.14403149313926072, "5": 0.1369287268063752, "6": 0.11608142095396409, "7": 0.08775298532001992, "8": 0.05915509044801325, "9": 0.035559314822503754, "10": 0.019061000122020107, "11": 0.009111062434835511, "12": 0.0038835008082169806 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.05818031056104009, "1": 0.08734949248768645, "2": 0.11660537548076987, "3": 0.13840462162109268, "4": 0.14606845909878752, "5": 0.1370680196569158, "6": 0.11436408598801057, "7": 0.08484319671481694, "8": 0.05596522039765284, "9": 0.0328241318307207, "10": 0.0171175700137053, "11": 0.007937154103542786, "12": 0.003272362045258534 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "HOU 4 - 5 SEA", "winner": "SEA" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "HOU 4 - 5 SEA", "winner": "SEA" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0002, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.526, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "SEA", "model_winner": "SEA", "simulation_winner": "SEA", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 5, "published_winner": "SEA", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.4, "draw_majority_team": "HOU", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.083, "winner": "SEA", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260923	20260923_LAA@OAK	LAA	54.0%	70.1%	55.4%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	3-7	miss	Variance Applied (-0.1612)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.700811, "sample_size": 680, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5544, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.627606, "published_confidence": 0.54, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 0.0, "absolute_net_margin": 0.0, "home_average_margin": 0.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0, "away_run_delta": -0.0, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 6.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.8217, "recent_quality_edge": -0.328, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.6489 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01700572833385477 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.016841805982570388 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.016561786406643044 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.016402143319563852 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.015751074137893332 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05212164669980816, "1": 0.07857691091128938, "2": 0.10620147645415404, "3": 0.1286841141897606, "4": 0.13979064219035972, "5": 0.13614134673639158, "6": 0.11886685291004387, "7": 0.09304440575305854, "8": 0.06529479282353559, "9": 0.04107954358336498, "10": 0.02317028901159757, "11": 0.011716450767195345, "12": 0.005311527969440456 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.034976427456724205, "1": 0.05333681302932599, "2": 0.07460828177228174, "3": 0.0957316129171943, "4": 0.11267616981431654, "5": 0.12165140718573454, "6": 0.12047877968566795, "7": 0.10944913780763439, "8": 0.09120580718099769, "9": 0.06971737063742828, "10": 0.04888412765137967, "11": 0.03144148872173178, "12": 0.018550118775642045, "13": 0.01003918945129335, "14": 0.004983781193459592, "15": 0.002269486719187929 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "LAA 5 - 4 OAK", "winner": "LAA" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "LAA 5 - 4 OAK", "winner": "LAA" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0587, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.398, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "LAA", "model_winner": "LAA", "simulation_winner": "LAA", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "LAA", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "LAA", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.6489, "winner": "LAA", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260923	20260923_MIA@CHC	CHC	53.0%	59.8%	56.8%	50.0%	5.0-6.0	3-2	miss	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.597738, "sample_size": 644, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5683, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.583019, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 4, "sample_weight": 0.05, "home_net_margin": -7.0, "absolute_net_margin": 7.0, "home_average_margin": -1.75, "home_run_delta": -0.0437, "away_run_delta": 0.0437, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -6.0 }, { "home_margin": -7.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.0064, "recent_quality_edge": 0.408, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.7969 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.015668183138782633 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.015544453927007127 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.015363394245918061 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.015242071904750206 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.014533192735074857 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.0326023035717915, "1": 0.04979610026902181, "2": 0.06999090405615524, "3": 0.09052886977746012, "4": 0.10775360733418086, "5": 0.11802547657464203, "6": 0.11896492412645582, "7": 0.11034720208010487, "8": 0.09418959823303898, "9": 0.07398501865889356, "10": 0.05347907114887499, "11": 0.03557321754352229, "12": 0.02177517558020875, "13": 0.012265899656648758, "14": 0.006358232055052323, "15": 0.003033001084392283, "16": 0.0013313982495555309 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04436270415749494, "1": 0.0672232067198889, "2": 0.09226309148028643, "3": 0.11469496198033596, "4": 0.12914221867268436, "5": 0.13170422503802776, "6": 0.12165745679743709, "7": 0.10178536116974628, "8": 0.0771328667592364, "9": 0.052942102686734514, "10": 0.03291322673397276, "11": 0.018533067154541307, "12": 0.00945217382238143, "13": 0.004366401444990439, "14": 0.001826935382241521 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "MIA 5 - 6 CHC", "winner": "CHC" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "MIA 5 - 6 CHC", "winner": "CHC" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0127, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.408, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "CHC", "model_winner": "CHC", "simulation_winner": "CHC", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "CHC", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "CHC", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.7969, "winner": "CHC", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260923	20260923_MIL@PHI	MIL	56.0%	74.2%	56.6%	50.0%	5.0-3.0	4-1	hit	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.741824, "sample_size": 348, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5661, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.653962, "published_confidence": 0.56, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 4, "sample_weight": 0.05, "home_net_margin": -7.0, "absolute_net_margin": 7.0, "home_average_margin": -1.75, "home_run_delta": -0.0437, "away_run_delta": 0.0437, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -6.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.1815, "recent_quality_edge": -0.688, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -1.0088 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02145358825107652 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.02064210926409364 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02034577794555124 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.020086384393521884 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019688546431610228 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.08304722532396437, "1": 0.12256891200127605, "2": 0.15543580853282224, "3": 0.16937034165114898, "4": 0.15857663284352433, "5": 0.12757235178101256, "6": 0.0881839347341189, "7": 0.05237667508691204, "8": 0.026730182237462645, "9": 0.011721453124321244, "10": 0.004416482683436474 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.03888832867370493, "1": 0.0591467597186417, "2": 0.08208638431603393, "3": 0.10395366043100167, "4": 0.12012597806207011, "5": 0.126666735403205, "6": 0.12187558378201813, "7": 0.10700383202138852, "8": 0.08572558222349763, "9": 0.06266860773972506, "10": 0.0418040289649883, "11": 0.0254457188342285, "12": 0.014133177023966388, "13": 0.007162973820508568, "14": 0.0033126489850216936 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "MIL 5 - 3 PHI", "winner": "MIL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "MIL 5 - 3 PHI", "winner": "MIL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0509, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.688, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "MIL", "model_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "MIL", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 1.0088, "winner": "MIL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260923	20260923_MIN@SF	MIN	51.1%	51.0%	55.6%	50.0%	4.0-3.0	4-2	hit	Variance Applied (0.1512)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 741, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.556, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.53305, "published_confidence": 0.51111, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 2, "sample_weight": 0.03, "home_net_margin": 2.0, "absolute_net_margin": 2.0, "home_average_margin": 1.0, "home_run_delta": 0.015, "away_run_delta": -0.015, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.1867, "recent_quality_edge": -0.044, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.1368 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.024779349333811658 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02464307302066722 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.024300204102501964 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.024166562892672952 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.0220005466693493 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.0735216232147596, "1": 0.10923059989802197, "2": 0.14129836866294768, "3": 0.15914521079945704, "4": 0.15606790365094822, "5": 0.13325920465849725, "6": 0.09907051805521087, "7": 0.0641291152264223, "8": 0.036143454522152646, "9": 0.017736489551965058, "10": 0.0075782560099684785, "11": 0.0028192557496488817 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.07064710013239983, "1": 0.10517023623324237, "2": 0.13686534955582513, "3": 0.15570276484811568, "4": 0.15484646315697548, "5": 0.1346196347040016, "6": 0.10230990406616511, "7": 0.06797185138240973, "8": 0.03947686649770555, "9": 0.020042800274923056, "10": 0.00889562110728968, "11": 0.0034514080409467434 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "MIN 4 - 3 SF", "winner": "MIN" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "MIN 4 - 3 SF", "winner": "MIN" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0726, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.044, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "MIN", "model_winner": "MIN", "simulation_winner": "MIN", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "MIN", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.1368, "winner": "MIN", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260923	20260923_NYM@TEX	NYM	59.5%	64.5%	55.6%	50.0%	6.0-3.0	7-2	hit	Embedded Savant Run Environment (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.645009, "sample_size": 284, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5563, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.600654, "published_confidence": 0.595426, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 1, "sample_weight": 0.0167, "home_net_margin": -3.0, "absolute_net_margin": 3.0, "home_average_margin": -3.0, "home_run_delta": -0.025, "away_run_delta": 0.025, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.0637, "recent_quality_edge": 0.212, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.1156 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.022061916677217967 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02174309226816475 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02093485332133187 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02063231649570412 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.020252643884580816 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.08036200462141224, "1": 0.11883328088423684, "2": 0.15156719010750486, "3": 0.16674472210778588, "4": 0.158226338649781, "5": 0.12950461538249852, "6": 0.09142637478358391, "7": 0.05567209161092535, "8": 0.029240403552588626, "9": 0.013246738755311512, "10": 0.005176239544371366 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04520089543114842, "1": 0.06845461767941634, "2": 0.09379399089234979, "3": 0.11626897300150132, "4": 0.13039748421008338, "5": 0.1323095351885073, "6": 0.12145898010186645, "7": 0.10087526098314885, "8": 0.07579774190256786, "9": 0.051528134429713685, "10": 0.03169196193792283, "11": 0.01763479385327103, "12": 0.00887785819585524, "13": 0.004043547745333625, "14": 0.0016662244473139524 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "NYM 6 - 3 TEX", "winner": "NYM" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "NYM 6 - 3 TEX", "winner": "NYM" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.072, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.138, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "NYM", "model_winner": "NYM", "simulation_winner": "NYM", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "NYM", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "NYM", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 3, "simulation_margin": 3, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 3, "final_margin": 3, "winner_quality_edge": -0.1156, "winner": "NYM", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260923	20260923_SD@LAD	LAD	53.5%	56.6%	55.3%	50.0%	5.0-7.0	5-1	miss	Embedded Savant Run Environment (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.566172, "sample_size": 680, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5529, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.559536, "published_confidence": 0.535156, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 13.0, "absolute_net_margin": 13.0, "home_average_margin": 2.6, "home_run_delta": 0.075, "away_run_delta": -0.075, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 7.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.1529, "recent_quality_edge": -0.0, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.7494 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.016109771224927807 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.015664133157284092 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.015474327082196685 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.015260282256441007 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.015147134492184666 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.0374884431660508, "1": 0.05707210481478138, "2": 0.0794343737029583, "3": 0.10107672541485675, "4": 0.11758500807456473, "5": 0.12505781740697525, "6": 0.12159839372461102, "7": 0.1080943347684245, "8": 0.08784885997834903, "9": 0.065272076425863, "10": 0.04433807452737686, "11": 0.027534952476931468, "12": 0.015633273839737956, "13": 0.008114721906561586, "14": 0.0038508397719572737 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.040977593693553624, "1": 0.06223600138096241, "2": 0.08600674352849245, "3": 0.1081481063773104, "4": 0.12373738326040533, "5": 0.1288185861464528, "6": 0.1220258163212582, "7": 0.1051769342933106, "8": 0.08248688182495145, "9": 0.05886333420666202, "10": 0.03822085716647758, "11": 0.022581437222279784, "12": 0.012139430957590304, "13": 0.005938006544652325, "14": 0.002642887075640754 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7, "score_text": "SD 5 - 7 LAD", "winner": "LAD" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7, "score_text": "SD 5 - 7 LAD", "winner": "LAD" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.042, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.21, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7, "winner": "LAD", "model_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 5, "published_winner": "LAD", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6, "draw_majority_team": "LAD", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.7494, "winner": "LAD", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260923	20260923_STL@PIT	PIT	55.6%	60.9%	55.5%	50.0%	5.0-6.0	5-1	miss	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.609038, "sample_size": 384, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5547, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.581869, "published_confidence": 0.556013, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 8.0, "absolute_net_margin": 8.0, "home_average_margin": 1.6, "home_run_delta": 0.0462, "away_run_delta": -0.0462, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.3949, "recent_quality_edge": 0.316, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.3673 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01585531359069926 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.015715820094941352 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.015404604211684917 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.015269076012891332 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.014811327499162053 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.03486361185809645, "1": 0.053168880793756555, "2": 0.07439060205371252, "3": 0.09548915340317532, "4": 0.11245154501653518, "5": 0.12149327102693602, "6": 0.12042438513012527, "7": 0.10950956769530812, "8": 0.0913618964513354, "9": 0.06992839520111842, "10": 0.04910406339820172, "11": 0.03163418982578852, "12": 0.01869697792497435, "13": 0.010138215737129601, "14": 0.0050434422965586895, "15": 0.002301802187247726 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04284989154184672, "1": 0.06499719116362646, "2": 0.08948171694364919, "3": 0.11180697187356108, "4": 0.12679388810158543, "5": 0.1305036357707746, "6": 0.12191068175189936, "7": 0.10336077717769068, "8": 0.07953616188005158, "9": 0.05554799025282356, "10": 0.03521007327554795, "11": 0.020256311385676972, "12": 0.01057666277148229, "13": 0.005012239419394082, "14": 0.0021558066903901722 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "STL 5 - 6 PIT", "winner": "PIT" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "STL 5 - 6 PIT", "winner": "PIT" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0436, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.526, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "PIT", "model_winner": "PIT", "simulation_winner": "PIT", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "PIT", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "PIT", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.3673, "winner": "PIT", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260923	20260923_TB@NYY	TB	50.5%	51.0%	54.3%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	2-9	miss	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 505, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5426, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.52635, "published_confidence": 0.505259, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 0.0, "absolute_net_margin": 0.0, "home_average_margin": 0.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0, "away_run_delta": -0.0, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 8.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.2484, "recent_quality_edge": -0.644, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.0639 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.023350462165734328 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02324541438796207 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.022952660424827714 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.022849402255697013 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.020901454354002477 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.06848837275473106, "1": 0.10210270457043541, "2": 0.13344538976026088, "3": 0.1529029388323182, "4": 0.15359391872500192, "5": 0.1352627270480128, "6": 0.10443069951598334, "7": 0.07068449589295207, "8": 0.04194363572604676, "9": 0.021819958023027358, "10": 0.009951480091470769, "11": 0.003978939870684889, "12": 0.0013947391890745593 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.0658541454416154, "1": 0.09835350466698199, "2": 0.1292454125887666, "3": 0.14943729944101944, "4": 0.1520272570657015, "5": 0.13608256451497225, "6": 0.10717712086264287, "7": 0.07427116964598823, "8": 0.045285275736023665, "9": 0.02429474502482759, "10": 0.011467962138209328, "11": 0.004762979709081116, "12": 0.0017405631641702823 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TB 5 - 4 NYY", "winner": "TB" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TB 5 - 4 NYY", "winner": "TB" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0041, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.714, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "TB", "model_winner": "TB", "simulation_winner": "TB", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "TB", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "TB", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.0639, "winner": "TB", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260923	20260923_TOR@BAL	BAL	50.5%	46.0%	54.6%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	2-4	hit	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.4601, "sample_size": 531, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5461, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5031, "published_confidence": 0.505, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -9.0, "absolute_net_margin": 9.0, "home_average_margin": -1.8, "home_run_delta": -0.0519, "away_run_delta": 0.0519, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -7.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.0732, "recent_quality_edge": 0.084, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.077 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.019451104604635196 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.019066265036462554 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01884807216281558 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01847516357487368 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.0179760338396466 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.050945885066459085, "1": 0.0768595950439625, "2": 0.1041046590966101, "3": 0.12659755983324278, "4": 0.13821767939618812, "5": 0.135483046421155, "6": 0.11923105967555545, "7": 0.09420564949050461, "8": 0.06682632621699716, "9": 0.042559970540728104, "10": 0.024335380713494097, "11": 0.012492750461067565, "12": 0.005757859713546341, "13": 0.002382578330489157 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.05294351196692946, "1": 0.07977123522102063, "2": 0.10763466448875478, "3": 0.13005596619894025, "4": 0.14072805077909328, "5": 0.13636513248633944, "6": 0.1183309303910143, "7": 0.0919529133735811, "8": 0.06398894974873111, "9": 0.039876473534194136, "10": 0.02225362580395864, "11": 0.011121339319321601, "12": 0.004977206688121319 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "TOR 4 - 5 BAL", "winner": "BAL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "TOR 4 - 5 BAL", "winner": "BAL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0793, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.014, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "BAL", "model_winner": "BAL", "simulation_winner": "BAL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "BAL", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.8333, "draw_majority_team": "BAL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.077, "winner": "BAL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260923	20260923_TOR@BAL_2	TOR	51.2%	51.5%	55.5%	50.0%	6.0-5.0	2-4	miss	Variance Applied (0.0593)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.515065, "sample_size": 740, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5554, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.535232, "published_confidence": 0.511665, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -9.0, "absolute_net_margin": 9.0, "home_average_margin": -1.8, "home_run_delta": -0.0519, "away_run_delta": 0.0519, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -7.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.0732, "recent_quality_edge": 0.084, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.077 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01712710263304328 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.016764625046188347 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01661090228200115 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.016259349546919943 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.01603392110210549 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04407508619826547, "1": 0.06680033999343513, "2": 0.09173610862756851, "3": 0.11415057222076923, "4": 0.12870398983776352, "5": 0.1314867727229436, "6": 0.12171616489984356, "7": 0.10209173679317542, "8": 0.07759059149442966, "9": 0.0534322757072449, "10": 0.03334067732835901, "11": 0.018850431837767502, "12": 0.009657046605464993, "13": 0.004482739368208216, "14": 0.0018854663647613638 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.042559851316804925, "1": 0.0645699006407122, "2": 0.0889457700448673, "3": 0.11124631801565349, "4": 0.12633135590757907, "5": 0.13025722875662846, "6": 0.12194322493480497, "7": 0.10365223798260416, "8": 0.07999537081836573, "9": 0.056055237056008775, "10": 0.03566421722309362, "11": 0.020602236313539794, "12": 0.010805906304404027, "13": 0.0051460404538842585, "14": 0.0022251042310493176 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "TOR 6 - 5 BAL", "winner": "TOR" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "TOR 6 - 5 BAL", "winner": "TOR" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1181, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.014, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "TOR", "model_winner": "TOR", "simulation_winner": "TOR", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "TOR", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333, "draw_majority_team": "BAL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.077, "winner": "TOR", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260923	20260923_WAS@DET	WAS	50.5%	54.4%	54.3%	50.0%	6.0-4.0	4-2	hit	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.54431, "sample_size": 505, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5426, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.543455, "published_confidence": 0.505, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 2, "sample_weight": 0.03, "home_net_margin": 5.0, "absolute_net_margin": 5.0, "home_average_margin": 2.5, "home_run_delta": 0.0375, "away_run_delta": -0.0375, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 7.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.4177, "recent_quality_edge": -0.156, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.2169 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.019852304505044095 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019330547809896167 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01910318619418431 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01860111776716917 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.018446563876759903 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.0540805971589865, "1": 0.08142141174855909, "2": 0.10960622260188714, "3": 0.13192625248681647, "4": 0.14197983722471133, "5": 0.13662228813962154, "6": 0.11754816880399356, "7": 0.09042939265880148, "8": 0.06220177713097931, "9": 0.03825563404894637, "10": 0.02103717639968044, "11": 0.010343771675466538, "12": 0.0045474699215503536 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.05215118832138507, "1": 0.0786198637172909, "2": 0.10625311071717437, "3": 0.12873371707986841, "4": 0.13982481522093784, "5": 0.13614995049826498, "6": 0.11884803631185431, "7": 0.09300532656249162, "8": 0.06524765722020019, "9": 0.04103583850566901, "10": 0.02313678390960834, "11": 0.011694561922003644, "12": 0.00529915001325126 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "WAS 6 - 4 DET", "winner": "WAS" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "WAS 6 - 4 DET", "winner": "WAS" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0976, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.156, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "WAS", "model_winner": "WAS", "simulation_winner": "WAS", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 4, "published_winner": "WAS", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.75, "draw_majority_team": "WAS", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": -0.2169, "winner": "WAS", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260924	20260924_ARI@COL	ARI	56.0%	72.6%	55.1%	50.0%	6.0-5.0	12-8	hit	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.725789, "sample_size": 205, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5512, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.638495, "published_confidence": 0.56, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -13.0, "absolute_net_margin": 13.0, "home_average_margin": -2.6, "home_run_delta": -0.075, "away_run_delta": 0.075, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -9.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.4589, "recent_quality_edge": -0.596, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -1.1569 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.01439676630418284 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.014283674296652005 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.0139300487889791 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.01382062302285477 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.013516662469649917 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04217339762812111, "1": 0.0640003165874018, "2": 0.0882303192003646, "3": 0.11049580112576303, "4": 0.12570886233904058, "5": 0.1299206586334214, "6": 0.12197834246099762, "7": 0.10403499195920335, "8": 0.0806061808884701, "9": 0.056734789537886465, "10": 0.036276280216041845, "11": 0.021071150264602864, "12": 0.011118493254003324, "13": 0.00532961485783184, "14": 0.002320801046850093 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.025203700462339964, "1": 0.03869546020249009, "2": 0.05523982178387775, "3": 0.0733231421442314, "4": 0.09049538098489816, "5": 0.1038504311743283, "6": 0.11081198675881211, "7": 0.10994151697578915, "8": 0.1014222532613211, "9": 0.08699640990103785, "10": 0.06938505758076159, "11": 0.05145494536286701, "12": 0.03548010005735776, "13": 0.022747784043978238, "14": 0.01356094340581064, "15": 0.007516873758657749, "16": 0.003874192141440942 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "ARI 6 - 5 COL", "winner": "ARI" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "ARI 6 - 5 COL", "winner": "ARI" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1533, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.666, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "ARI", "model_winner": "ARI", "simulation_winner": "ARI", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "ARI", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "ARI", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 1.1569, "winner": "ARI", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260924	20260924_CHW@KC	CHW	54.5%	74.1%	57.4%	50.0%	7.0-5.0	9-1	hit	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.740741, "sample_size": 422, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5735, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.65712, "published_confidence": 0.54462, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -23.0, "absolute_net_margin": 23.0, "home_average_margin": -4.6, "home_run_delta": -0.1327, "away_run_delta": 0.1327, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -21.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.0601, "recent_quality_edge": -0.668, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.9229 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.01379351015036055 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.013612021151675183 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.013177266329399013 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.013157957290284083 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 8, "probability": 0.013038733397839838 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.039843393141624245, "1": 0.06055999761125719, "2": 0.08388408670337608, "3": 0.10588574826790544, "4": 0.1218034635831074, "5": 0.12768678862662503, "6": 0.12198220772938889, "7": 0.10619674672754484, "8": 0.08425392355871203, "9": 0.060916263212171945, "10": 0.0401365993402652, "11": 0.024099725185583037, "12": 0.013187054642718158, "13": 0.00657578673400541, "14": 0.0029882149357150635 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.022868645092706065, "1": 0.03516754724290363, "2": 0.05044895185656073, "3": 0.06751039340886593, "4": 0.08427476556092274, "5": 0.09813702547305145, "6": 0.10660477327438109, "7": 0.10802613409516316, "8": 0.10211497632669747, "9": 0.09004476535806254, "10": 0.07406890486738502, "11": 0.05683577671363619, "12": 0.04068329299220981, "13": 0.02716556990253174, "14": 0.01692115351750591, "15": 0.00983217350711127, "16": 0.005329390276653028, "17": 0.0026947218241717688, "18": 0.0012710387094807026 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CHW 7 - 5 KC", "winner": "CHW" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CHW 7 - 5 KC", "winner": "CHW" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0461, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.738, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "CHW", "model_winner": "CHW", "simulation_winner": "CHW", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "CHW", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "CHW", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.9229, "winner": "CHW", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260924	20260924_CIN@ATL	ATL	56.0%	66.4%	55.6%	50.0%	5.0-7.0	7-6	miss	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.6636, "sample_size": 277, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.556, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.6098, "published_confidence": 0.56, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 3.0, "absolute_net_margin": 3.0, "home_average_margin": 0.6, "home_run_delta": 0.0173, "away_run_delta": -0.0173, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.943, "recent_quality_edge": 0.52, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 1.445 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.016224951656900445 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.015948593655984826 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01590082795095461 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.015629990717146262 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.015120323220516284 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.03604593422849962, "1": 0.054930308982711055, "2": 0.07668041295368055, "3": 0.0980558456124846, "4": 0.11486274229876531, "5": 0.1232541403908459, "6": 0.12115476477708245, "7": 0.10909280926428529, "8": 0.08998464285894701, "9": 0.06799192141651622, "10": 0.04706118693564033, "11": 0.02983905627934505, "12": 0.017331012516079877, "13": 0.009221029965428456, "14": 0.004494191519688387 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.0442746536825632, "1": 0.06709376889586595, "2": 0.09210185310988935, "3": 0.11452853691023365, "4": 0.12900846900990245, "5": 0.13163818761341567, "6": 0.12167594605501665, "7": 0.10187948321475972, "8": 0.07727302241776755, "9": 0.053091895354141494, "10": 0.033043628009266295, "11": 0.018629722396260675, "12": 0.009514461363446778, "13": 0.004401707651391655, "14": 0.0018446643160787504 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7, "score_text": "CIN 5 - 7 ATL", "winner": "ATL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7, "score_text": "CIN 5 - 7 ATL", "winner": "ATL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.032, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.59, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7, "winner": "ATL", "model_winner": "ATL", "simulation_winner": "ATL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "ATL", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "ATL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 1.445, "winner": "ATL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260924	20260924_CLE@BOS	CLE	50.6%	51.0%	54.0%	50.0%	4.0-2.0	1-0	hit	Embedded Savant Run Environment (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 515, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5398, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.52495, "published_confidence": 0.50619, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 12.0, "absolute_net_margin": 12.0, "home_average_margin": 2.4, "home_run_delta": 0.0692, "away_run_delta": -0.0692, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": 8.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.5222, "recent_quality_edge": -0.48, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.1714 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.030435048036703844 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.028713710154834843 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.0283213963507499 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.027947185636948924 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.027414073278234342 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.09072069864660767, "1": 0.13315616195766497, "2": 0.1660852443341064, "3": 0.17604177106472216, "4": 0.15856791177652801, "5": 0.12137515094944164, "6": 0.0789512767527257, "7": 0.04364187795410014, "8": 0.020500412589860167, "9": 0.008183454486736354, "10": 0.002776039487506855 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.08691496285519837, "1": 0.12792174103305415, "2": 0.16087884244437348, "3": 0.1728853774455287, "4": 0.15875314970941798, "5": 0.12456361318757192, "6": 0.0835150609401148, "7": 0.0478457278855756, "8": 0.023422124658549936, "9": 0.009797475105925485, "10": 0.0035019247346895583 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "CLE 4 - 2 BOS", "winner": "CLE" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "CLE 4 - 2 BOS", "winner": "CLE" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.014, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.41, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "winner": "CLE", "model_winner": "CLE", "simulation_winner": "CLE", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "CLE", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "CLE", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": -0.1714, "winner": "CLE", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260924	20260924_HOU@OAK	HOU	56.0%	73.0%	54.7%	50.0%	7.0-5.0	7-5	hit	Variance Applied (0.0879)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.730339, "sample_size": 225, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5467, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.638519, "published_confidence": 0.56, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -8.0, "absolute_net_margin": 8.0, "home_average_margin": -1.6, "home_run_delta": -0.0462, "away_run_delta": 0.0462, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": -11.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.1804, "recent_quality_edge": -0.232, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.8484 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.013443821412242424 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.013241344590881379 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.013103894614172103 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.012906537415830302 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 8, "probability": 0.012736520503298092 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.03716383729862856, "1": 0.05659049052478432, "2": 0.07881653106857904, "3": 0.10040194457399418, "4": 0.11698168746868688, "5": 0.1246650136969811, "6": 0.12151286092449504, "7": 0.10833052624955058, "8": 0.08833451103189752, "9": 0.06588111119067933, "10": 0.0449409627239228, "11": 0.028039791332623795, "12": 0.016001405566369545, "13": 0.008352037547030936, "14": 0.003987288801776334 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.022663625422882402, "1": 0.03485744299977399, "2": 0.0500263809007776, "3": 0.06699464074711861, "4": 0.08371792530962335, "5": 0.09761898082610974, "6": 0.10621540236675105, "7": 0.10783956952766116, "8": 0.10216595759782539, "9": 0.09031745509805258, "10": 0.0745031424548283, "11": 0.05734755517968684, "12": 0.04119008063903058, "13": 0.027606273982658452, "14": 0.01726475274576977, "15": 0.010075122833950116, "16": 0.005486277285282192, "17": 0.00278767779211843, "18": 0.0013217362900993892 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "HOU 7 - 5 OAK", "winner": "HOU" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "HOU 7 - 5 OAK", "winner": "HOU" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0496, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.162, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "HOU", "model_winner": "HOU", "simulation_winner": "HOU", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "HOU", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.8484, "winner": "HOU", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260924	20260924_LAA@SEA	SEA	56.0%	69.2%	55.0%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	6-4	miss	Variance Applied (-0.575)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.692256, "sample_size": 229, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5502, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.621228, "published_confidence": 0.56, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 8.0, "absolute_net_margin": 8.0, "home_average_margin": 1.6, "home_run_delta": 0.0462, "away_run_delta": -0.0462, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.3291, "recent_quality_edge": 0.544, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.4043 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.017910381022075355 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.017859751424455103 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.0172327038371028 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.01718398991749907 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.016496199644683237 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.03406694041287963, "1": 0.051982288625744166, "2": 0.07284962584698108, "3": 0.09376676196006999, "4": 0.11084603833671716, "5": 0.12034861508468961, "6": 0.12000841004112396, "7": 0.10990866450249531, "8": 0.09244892032547052, "9": 0.0714202589111521, "10": 0.05067463868894591, "11": 0.03302247083998893, "12": 0.01976414965696672, "13": 0.010864165331267732, "14": 0.005484843778427619, "15": 0.0025432076570796845 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.0613894153703072, "1": 0.09196598188015676, "2": 0.1219645137221095, "3": 0.14318988070594832, "4": 0.14882083195948517, "5": 0.13692655792780714, "6": 0.11152807749454892, "7": 0.08041800649596394, "8": 0.051332799800363184, "9": 0.029007424033095596, "10": 0.014510953049904947, "11": 0.006426215309727206, "12": 0.0025193422505820737 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "LAA 4 - 5 SEA", "winner": "SEA" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "LAA 4 - 5 SEA", "winner": "SEA" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1394, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.614, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "SEA", "model_winner": "SEA", "simulation_winner": "SEA", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "SEA", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.8333, "draw_majority_team": "SEA", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.4043, "winner": "SEA", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260924	20260924_MIA@CHC	CHC	51.9%	46.0%	55.4%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	1-2	hit	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.4601, "sample_size": 756, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5542, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.50715, "published_confidence": 0.519035, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -8.0, "absolute_net_margin": 8.0, "home_average_margin": -1.6, "home_run_delta": -0.0462, "away_run_delta": 0.0462, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -6.0 }, { "home_margin": -7.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.9778, "recent_quality_edge": -0.028, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.6258 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020546606196630235 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01973532021493096 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01949004873838817 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.019305632001415426 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.019118759767775 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05437763727599484, "1": 0.08185206049005056, "2": 0.11011908621881367, "3": 0.1324095411534763, "4": 0.14229828356034604, "5": 0.13667961342243728, "6": 0.11733606547975525, "7": 0.09002911897683658, "8": 0.0617387991933848, "9": 0.03784051650711363, "10": 0.020729061136446753, "11": 0.010149062065774697, "12": 0.004441154519569752 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.05641786757699703, "1": 0.08480519903021629, "2": 0.11361745126482618, "3": 0.13567016775173024, "4": 0.14439110355056956, "5": 0.13696615483153599, "6": 0.11579847657677493, "7": 0.08725878923159619, "8": 0.05860467658545647, "9": 0.035081012464733954, "10": 0.01871667583565478, "11": 0.00890024727237316, "12": 0.0037721780275351063 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "MIA 4 - 5 CHC", "winner": "CHC" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "MIA 4 - 5 CHC", "winner": "CHC" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0807, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.098, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "CHC", "model_winner": "CHC", "simulation_winner": "CHC", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "CHC", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "CHC", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.6258, "winner": "CHC", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260924	20260924_MIL@PHI	MIL	53.9%	59.9%	55.7%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	5-1	hit	Variance Applied (0.3123)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.598991, "sample_size": 684, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.557, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.577996, "published_confidence": 0.53921, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -10.0, "absolute_net_margin": 10.0, "home_average_margin": -2.0, "home_run_delta": -0.0577, "away_run_delta": 0.0577, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -6.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.2215, "recent_quality_edge": -0.46, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.955 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02067453283365242 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02032381664148272 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020065780159342978 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01972539065371197 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.018894117637333303 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.06320482560435103, "1": 0.09456820179238254, "2": 0.12494962158772885, "3": 0.14578729563260306, "4": 0.15021016907145937, "5": 0.13667022535840367, "6": 0.1098103830791064, "7": 0.07791262257548115, "8": 0.04881655863213836, "9": 0.02700980306634653, "10": 0.013196859580078941, "11": 0.005693963699863035, "12": 0.002169470320057257 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.05047343361311109, "1": 0.07617115133689235, "2": 0.10327106681742092, "3": 0.12578454410995848, "4": 0.13763737143400018, "5": 0.1353025348890599, "6": 0.11949121294572429, "7": 0.09480396022155445, "8": 0.06757366312928156, "9": 0.043270201609812216, "10": 0.02489206052524471, "11": 0.012864510067248352, "12": 0.005972912151957583, "13": 0.002491377148733949 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "MIL 5 - 4 PHI", "winner": "MIL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "MIL 5 - 4 PHI", "winner": "MIL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0056, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.53, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "MIL", "model_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 4, "published_winner": "MIL", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.75, "draw_majority_team": "MIL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.955, "winner": "MIL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260924	20260924_NYM@TEX	NYM	52.1%	48.5%	54.0%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	1-3	miss	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.484874, "sample_size": 524, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5401, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.512487, "published_confidence": 0.520878, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 2, "sample_weight": 0.03, "home_net_margin": -8.0, "absolute_net_margin": 8.0, "home_average_margin": -4.0, "home_run_delta": -0.06, "away_run_delta": 0.06, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.0095, "recent_quality_edge": 0.332, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.11 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020696401842226857 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02008850845860596 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.019750093631245778 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.019244840880597407 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019169995151526863 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05966652248076004, "1": 0.08949011247027157, "2": 0.11910038582539374, "3": 0.14065172738187146, "4": 0.1473909300912483, "5": 0.137053533192518, "6": 0.11308460877601628, "7": 0.08279622787953618, "8": 0.05379121944232406, "9": 0.031010303434215774, "10": 0.015863332569276713, "11": 0.00720073170843909, "12": 0.002900364748128737 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.05266936339449768, "1": 0.07937299545634657, "2": 0.10715736048494888, "3": 0.12960023236543636, "4": 0.1404184221472374, "5": 0.13629406128429586, "6": 0.11851254178198656, "7": 0.09231796621064453, "8": 0.06442325733484792, "9": 0.04027482542802806, "10": 0.02255584956298271, "11": 0.011316685531051583, "12": 0.00508643901769592 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "NYM 5 - 4 TEX", "winner": "NYM" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "NYM 5 - 4 TEX", "winner": "NYM" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0998, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.018, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "NYM", "model_winner": "NYM", "simulation_winner": "NYM", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "NYM", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "NYM", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.11, "winner": "NYM", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260924	20260924_SD@LAD	LAD	51.0%	51.0%	54.9%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	4-2	miss	Variance Applied (0.5966)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 689, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5486, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.52935, "published_confidence": 0.509796, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 4.0, "absolute_net_margin": 4.0, "home_average_margin": 0.8, "home_run_delta": 0.0231, "away_run_delta": -0.0231, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": 7.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.0854, "recent_quality_edge": -0.072, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.6803 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01828600254744064 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01827808388698091 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01808552680520174 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.018077694959743217 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.016632370696392652 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04773391427896599, "1": 0.07217045144873978, "2": 0.09839242724720419, "3": 0.12095777961005333, "4": 0.1340836479099121, "5": 0.13402558366770026, "6": 0.12080070719412504, "7": 0.09817956997800228, "8": 0.07195196412691617, "9": 0.04754819784480317, "10": 0.028333181769212287, "11": 0.01522392072497899, "12": 0.007376112961114932, "13": 0.0032225412382714254 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.049473323278532357, "1": 0.07471235079318687, "2": 0.1014989352444301, "3": 0.12404473592162098, "4": 0.13637757349596136, "5": 0.13488241919964034, "6": 0.12000946564949615, "7": 0.09605576275441231, "8": 0.06916384288124984, "9": 0.04480047036469838, "10": 0.02610560722661625, "11": 0.013684621597194165, "12": 0.006453265808624789, "13": 0.0027376257843361946 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "SD 4 - 5 LAD", "winner": "LAD" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "SD 4 - 5 LAD", "winner": "LAD" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0449, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.002, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "LAD", "model_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "LAD", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.6803, "winner": "LAD", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260924	20260924_STL@PIT	PIT	52.8%	51.0%	55.9%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	1-2	hit	Variance Applied (0.2877)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 682, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5587, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5344, "published_confidence": 0.52755, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 0.0, "absolute_net_margin": 0.0, "home_average_margin": 0.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0, "away_run_delta": -0.0, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.3323, "recent_quality_edge": 0.392, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.3532 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02081226366379775 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01988115466374111 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.01964305753488803 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019628646279969634 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.019448738897863256 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05527235233938568, "1": 0.08314814931543317, "2": 0.11165846104402682, "3": 0.13385207241831928, "4": 0.14323626008583368, "5": 0.13682808781515637, "6": 0.11667879996343887, "7": 0.08881842368854992, "8": 0.06035435042126447, "9": 0.036610740261761435, "10": 0.019824527812681268, "11": 0.00958278192305989, "12": 0.004134992911089104 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.057357500708918915, "1": 0.0861624525195108, "2": 0.11521437926850878, "3": 0.13713746451573797, "4": 0.14530024486345913, "5": 0.1370368527369205, "6": 0.11504538574890458, "7": 0.08597295071200058, "8": 0.057189363064547624, "9": 0.03386331620799585, "10": 0.01784861457333401, "11": 0.008374142290211129, "12": 0.003497332789950093 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "STL 4 - 5 PIT", "winner": "PIT" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "STL 4 - 5 PIT", "winner": "PIT" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0209, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.462, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "PIT", "model_winner": "PIT", "simulation_winner": "PIT", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "PIT", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "PIT", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.3532, "winner": "PIT", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260924	20260924_TB@NYY	NYY	53.1%	54.9%	55.3%	50.0%	2.0-4.0	4-6	hit	Embedded Savant Run Environment (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.548657, "sample_size": 691, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5528, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.550728, "published_confidence": 0.531136, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 9.0, "absolute_net_margin": 9.0, "home_average_margin": 1.8, "home_run_delta": 0.0519, "away_run_delta": -0.0519, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 7.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 8.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.3449, "recent_quality_edge": -0.112, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.185 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.024285963649880254 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.024277539466072005 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.023964805104349434 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02395649232228163 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.021467001552266655 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.06935122731254538, "1": 0.10332759783301478, "2": 0.13480562413206995, "3": 0.15400300198833647, "4": 0.15405644025367574, "5": 0.1349460034477179, "6": 0.10350699306610085, "7": 0.06951985445352596, "8": 0.04088627193601181, "9": 0.021055990118510844, "10": 0.009495182580939109, "11": 0.0037493887227059257, "12": 0.0012964241548452167 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.07224826907150249, "1": 0.10743410842246989, "2": 0.13934504469218034, "3": 0.15764328716079626, "4": 0.15555860608545796, "5": 0.13388971326066465, "6": 0.10051595143725854, "7": 0.06581992332097474, "8": 0.03759363876441917, "9": 0.018728628011678572, "10": 0.00813827144656019, "11": 0.0030845583260371784 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TB 2 - 4 NYY", "winner": "NYY" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TB 2 - 4 NYY", "winner": "NYY" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0045, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.042, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "NYY", "model_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "NYY", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333, "draw_majority_team": "TB", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.185, "winner": "NYY", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260925	20260925_ARI@SD	ARI	50.5%	56.2%	54.3%	50.0%	6.0-5.0	11-4	hit	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.562385, "sample_size": 523, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.543, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.552693, "published_confidence": 0.505263, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -3.0, "absolute_net_margin": 3.0, "home_average_margin": -0.6, "home_run_delta": -0.0173, "away_run_delta": 0.0173, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": -6.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.2264, "recent_quality_edge": 0.34, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.2662 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.015420692009506983 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.015144155865786473 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01500391994392834 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.014734857689171729 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.014491478771724792 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.03740153235375832, "1": 0.05694317617099317, "2": 0.07926905775701784, "3": 0.10089634195196107, "4": 0.11742399791045702, "5": 0.12495338362812441, "6": 0.12157629265428042, "7": 0.10815820907982143, "8": 0.08797915686815286, "9": 0.06543495687637856, "10": 0.044498929360447324, "11": 0.027669354027124837, "12": 0.01573106751290352, "13": 0.008177623023210952, "14": 0.003886920825368275 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.036167179629637405, "1": 0.055110485612127495, "2": 0.07691271730980481, "3": 0.09831196916347609, "4": 0.11509566257829211, "5": 0.12341156006947943, "6": 0.12119844558077128, "7": 0.1090140764674444, "8": 0.08980746393642598, "9": 0.06776206116479289, "10": 0.046827945636553236, "11": 0.029639298856079604, "12": 0.017182053567285565, "13": 0.009122765974583592, "14": 0.004436314453245906 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "ARI 6 - 5 SD", "winner": "ARI" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "ARI 6 - 5 SD", "winner": "ARI" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0664, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.27, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "ARI", "model_winner": "ARI", "simulation_winner": "ARI", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 4, "published_winner": "ARI", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.75, "draw_majority_team": "ARI", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.2662, "winner": "ARI", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260925	20260925_ATL@MIA	ATL	53.4%	58.4%	55.9%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	0-3	miss	Variance Applied (0.269)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.583966, "sample_size": 692, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5592, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.571583, "published_confidence": 0.534431, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -27.0, "absolute_net_margin": 27.0, "home_average_margin": -5.4, "home_run_delta": -0.1558, "away_run_delta": 0.1558, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -8.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -6.0 }, { "home_margin": -8.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.8522, "recent_quality_edge": 0.056, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.5343 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020285078938493704 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.020261888128339216 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01980750476670822 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019784859940722006 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.018313289007899764 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.06447004704504093, "1": 0.09637774876630113, "2": 0.12701010712085403, "3": 0.14755111685081423, "4": 0.15110868774406921, "5": 0.13642032543488392, "6": 0.10857040115262985, "7": 0.07617044940047626, "8": 0.04710904578311696, "9": 0.025684127147787426, "10": 0.012344344379638687, "11": 0.005230147790589772, "12": 0.0019534513837976856 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04785058623585053, "1": 0.07234113831336787, "2": 0.0986017669461203, "3": 0.12116727497702152, "4": 0.134241645806959, "5": 0.13408817474913493, "6": 0.1207521783402318, "7": 0.09803942444140468, "8": 0.07176419470467647, "9": 0.04736048733393852, "10": 0.02817901402797165, "11": 0.015115993895288298, "12": 0.007310530719046546, "13": 0.0031875895089880212 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "ATL 5 - 4 MIA", "winner": "ATL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "ATL 5 - 4 MIA", "winner": "ATL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0359, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.294, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "ATL", "model_winner": "ATL", "simulation_winner": "ATL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 4, "published_winner": "ATL", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.5343, "winner": "ATL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260925	20260925_BAL@NYY	NYY	50.5%	52.9%	54.3%	50.0%	5.0-6.0	10-2	miss	Enhanced Prediction (3.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.529428, "sample_size": 523, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.543, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.536214, "published_confidence": 0.505, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 6.0, "absolute_net_margin": 6.0, "home_average_margin": 1.2, "home_run_delta": 0.0346, "away_run_delta": -0.0346, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -7.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.195, "recent_quality_edge": 0.272, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.8719 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.022009582096405682 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.0211459465059566 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.021091956974933674 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020355296213918128 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.020288500931312885 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.06054926658475804, "1": 0.09075941243733304, "2": 0.12057164180781149, "3": 0.14196110922309743, "4": 0.14813725875014033, "5": 0.1370029548479875, "6": 0.11229651395247599, "7": 0.0815780510399444, "8": 0.05252318899227621, "9": 0.029970884393763213, "10": 0.01515719160173427, "11": 0.0067937354764917605, "12": 0.002698790892186283 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.06108432733519885, "1": 0.09152800090711886, "2": 0.12145954599365472, "3": 0.14274563120965383, "4": 0.14857559996792388, "5": 0.13695744812946098, "6": 0.11180914166094437, "7": 0.08083928561931825, "8": 0.05176319991647352, "9": 0.02935440353246237, "10": 0.014742763536567694, "11": 0.0065574960080782094, "12": 0.00258315618314448 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "BAL 5 - 6 NYY", "winner": "NYY" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "BAL 5 - 6 NYY", "winner": "NYY" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0759, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.482, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "NYY", "model_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "NYY", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.8719, "winner": "NYY", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260925	20260925_BAL@NYY_2	NYY	51.2%	59.2%	54.3%	50.0%	5.0-6.0	3-6	hit	Enhanced Prediction (3.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.591659, "sample_size": 523, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.543, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.56733, "published_confidence": 0.511579, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 6.0, "absolute_net_margin": 6.0, "home_average_margin": 1.2, "home_run_delta": 0.0346, "away_run_delta": -0.0346, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -7.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.195, "recent_quality_edge": 0.272, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.8719 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.018551983898029433 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01783951877847235 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.017659134434098524 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.017550465774616608 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.017384522878491068 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.041155139496962714, "1": 0.062498132980194326, "2": 0.08633781905680889, "3": 0.10849910820496826, "4": 0.12403445070530135, "5": 0.12898807197997325, "6": 0.12202472549896735, "7": 0.10501157976060933, "8": 0.08220866751122571, "9": 0.05854490295737957, "10": 0.03792727463596294, "11": 0.022351426565576624, "12": 0.011982568541233692, "13": 0.005843669711271636, "14": 0.0025924623935643636 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.05585207386031204, "1": 0.0839870781512842, "2": 0.11265153479555338, "3": 0.13477620536254079, "4": 0.14382712768130856, "5": 0.1369051739670959, "6": 0.11623860432106896, "7": 0.08803034081850344, "8": 0.05946560627667778, "9": 0.03583032851591188, "10": 0.01925693659027727, "11": 0.009231559684503064, "12": 0.003947429974962577 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "BAL 5 - 6 NYY", "winner": "NYY" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "BAL 5 - 6 NYY", "winner": "NYY" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0398, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.482, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "NYY", "model_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "NYY", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.8333, "draw_majority_team": "NYY", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.8719, "winner": "NYY", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260925	20260925_CHC@BOS	CHC	50.5%	53.1%	54.3%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	3-4	miss	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.530624, "sample_size": 523, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.543, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.536812, "published_confidence": 0.505, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": false, "sample_size": 0, "home_net_margin": 0.0, "home_average_margin": 0.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0, "away_run_delta": 0.0 }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.4497, "recent_quality_edge": -0.348, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.4141 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.021230142237254074 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02011890447842574 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.020039303136559848 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.020020392152814363 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.019918606319563135 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05820795882516401, "1": 0.08738935584844953, "2": 0.1166519962444133, "3": 0.13844691450986574, "4": 0.14609382387123865, "5": 0.13706857593749114, "6": 0.11434084938081145, "7": 0.08480518315224397, "8": 0.05592433748529966, "9": 0.03278964904860192, "10": 0.01709346700368257, "11": 0.00792284239145242, "12": 0.003265046301285529 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.05737678574731859, "1": 0.08619029009830853, "2": 0.11524706043649223, "3": 0.13716735318134804, "4": 0.14531854718215526, "5": 0.1370379090799865, "6": 0.11502964699541172, "7": 0.0859465083441543, "8": 0.05716050746949844, "9": 0.033838671243640116, "10": 0.01783117300273069, "11": 0.00836365121795924, "12": 0.003491896000996316 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "CHC 5 - 4 BOS", "winner": "CHC" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "CHC 5 - 4 BOS", "winner": "CHC" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0158, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.348, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "CHC", "model_winner": "CHC", "simulation_winner": "CHC", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 4, "published_winner": "CHC", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.25, "draw_majority_team": "BOS", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.4141, "winner": "CHC", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260925	20260925_CHC@BOS_2	BOS	55.7%	59.0%	56.7%	50.0%	3.0-4.0	0-2	hit	Variance Applied (0.8167)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.590453, "sample_size": 661, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5673, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.578877, "published_confidence": 0.557003, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": false, "sample_size": 0, "home_net_margin": 0.0, "home_average_margin": 0.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0, "away_run_delta": 0.0 }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.4497, "recent_quality_edge": -0.348, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.4141 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.022883902309619373 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.022300440031448186 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.022005519226039497 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02144445275205058 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.021274668160883685 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05419078155210037, "1": 0.08158117768957553, "2": 0.10979656948585376, "3": 0.13210577908836746, "4": 0.14209837353668922, "5": 0.13664402375709, "6": 0.11746985217649279, "7": 0.09028101791930182, "8": 0.06202984797922113, "9": 0.03810125064929383, "10": 0.02092242360250402, "11": 0.010271148184195618, "12": 0.004507754379314493 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.07500342124696387, "1": 0.11133183115902234, "2": 0.1436280685609426, "3": 0.1610426758594168, "4": 0.15693663112681794, "5": 0.13291970319481847, "6": 0.09784442599783737, "7": 0.06259858357622866, "8": 0.034807642751832756, "9": 0.016821565426368458, "10": 0.007065451099750694 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "CHC 3 - 4 BOS", "winner": "BOS" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "CHC 3 - 4 BOS", "winner": "BOS" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0657, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.348, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "BOS", "model_winner": "BOS", "simulation_winner": "BOS", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "BOS", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "BOS", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.4141, "winner": "BOS", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260925	20260925_CIN@TOR	TOR	63.6%	67.2%	55.1%	50.0%	3.0-5.0	5-6	hit	Variance Applied (0.0424)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.6725, "sample_size": 225, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5511, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.6118, "published_confidence": 0.635849, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": false, "sample_size": 0, "home_net_margin": 0.0, "home_average_margin": 0.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0, "away_run_delta": 0.0 }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.7327, "recent_quality_edge": -0.02, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.4693 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.021057636997841012 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02048348081402669 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.020447541074851753 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.019890019727459966 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.019684632736563075 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04275744034250759, "1": 0.06486100892209408, "2": 0.08931097640572552, "3": 0.11162850563146455, "4": 0.12664688734640348, "5": 0.13042566687527066, "6": 0.12192162644480244, "7": 0.10345406623461174, "8": 0.0796826041023271, "9": 0.05570941634229516, "10": 0.03535434813714377, "11": 0.02036602140340215, "12": 0.010649241932704884, "13": 0.005054524748681464, "14": 0.0021776651305653602 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.075370497144585, "1": 0.11184766246090991, "2": 0.144181201975304, "3": 0.16145316717436423, "4": 0.15705099544260379, "5": 0.13270613951435695, "6": 0.0974086523832755, "7": 0.06210981734874217, "8": 0.034401641565154926, "9": 0.016552144861235935, "10": 0.006918080129467573 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CIN 3 - 5 TOR", "winner": "TOR" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CIN 3 - 5 TOR", "winner": "TOR" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0907, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.02, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "TOR", "model_winner": "TOR", "simulation_winner": "TOR", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "TOR", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "TOR", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.4693, "winner": "TOR", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260925	20260925_CLE@KC	CLE	56.0%	69.0%	56.6%	50.0%	4.0-3.0	12-9	hit	Variance Applied (0.4676)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.689611, "sample_size": 664, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5663, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.627955, "published_confidence": 0.56, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -7.0, "absolute_net_margin": 7.0, "home_average_margin": -1.4, "home_run_delta": -0.0404, "away_run_delta": 0.0404, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -10.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.8648, "recent_quality_edge": -1.084, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.9415 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02378647591348404 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.023711593604874768 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.022500178049424155 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02242934514073315 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02150338565245724 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.09144376739496698, "1": 0.13414697593153246, "2": 0.16705764298849005, "3": 0.17660805138432376, "4": 0.1584941853941267, "5": 0.1207465847069738, "6": 0.07808993539066926, "7": 0.04287202108258354, "8": 0.019980738591260826, "9": 0.007905107943481975, "10": 0.0026549891915905945 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04818044858001509, "1": 0.07282356945346, "2": 0.09919287182017163, "3": 0.12175767460149862, "4": 0.134685116148648, "5": 0.13426111334683735, "6": 0.12061137326332463, "7": 0.09764132392844847, "8": 0.07123385297521528, "9": 0.04683241901163993, "10": 0.02774687802177968, "11": 0.014814569584072854, "12": 0.007128059733651943, "13": 0.0030907295312367225 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "CLE 4 - 3 KC", "winner": "CLE" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "CLE 4 - 3 KC", "winner": "CLE" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0961, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.154, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "CLE", "model_winner": "CLE", "simulation_winner": "CLE", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "CLE", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "CLE", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.9415, "winner": "CLE", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260925	20260925_COL@CHW	CHW	72.3%	92.0%	62.9%	17.5%	4.0-9.0	1-6	hit	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.92, "sample_size": 35, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.6286, "empirical_weight": 0.175, "blended_confidence": 0.869005, "published_confidence": 0.723012, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": false, "sample_size": 0, "home_net_margin": 0.0, "home_average_margin": 0.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0, "away_run_delta": 0.0 }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.7453, "recent_quality_edge": 0.928, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 1.4592 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 8, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01529903011140245 }, { "home_runs": 8, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.015218403652255548 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.015036218752317585 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.014956977318832592 }, { "home_runs": 9, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.014664239359720476 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.016304589615384293, "1": 0.025196632068929515, "2": 0.036681365458841785, "3": 0.050305893937066734, "4": 0.06499240757124321, "5": 0.07910004981856512, "6": 0.09069038931584573, "7": 0.09795264166135936, "8": 0.09966471218287971, "9": 0.09552940183300433, "10": 0.08625873349009343, "11": 0.07337354014547567, "12": 0.05879579232345691, "13": 0.044383689212060394, "14": 0.03156246594480617, "15": 0.021144081923100584, "16": 0.01334372601770671, "17": 0.007932969360734909, "18": 0.0044428823712126895, "19": 0.0023440357482327158 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.06832755969029787, "1": 0.10187424333865105, "2": 0.13319103285091233, "3": 0.15269600763337926, "4": 0.15350498462614834, "5": 0.13531918940007326, "6": 0.10460161682862518, "7": 0.07090216754816671, "8": 0.0421427364039517, "9": 0.02196484060656736, "10": 0.01003865398674512, "11": 0.004023138827485401, "12": 0.00141382825899658 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 9, "score_text": "COL 4 - 9 CHW", "winner": "CHW" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 9, "score_text": "COL 4 - 9 CHW", "winner": "CHW" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0595, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.928, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 9, "winner": "CHW", "model_winner": "CHW", "simulation_winner": "CHW", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "CHW", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "CHW", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 5, "simulation_margin": 5, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 9 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 9 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 5, "final_margin": 5, "winner_quality_edge": 1.4592, "winner": "CHW", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 9, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260925	20260925_HOU@OAK	HOU	53.9%	59.8%	56.1%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	5-6	miss	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.597999, "sample_size": 692, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5607, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.57935, "published_confidence": 0.539426, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 1.0, "absolute_net_margin": 1.0, "home_average_margin": 0.2, "home_run_delta": 0.0058, "away_run_delta": -0.0058, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.2075, "recent_quality_edge": -0.18, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.8479 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01755232536968844 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.017314689855584806 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01679435671437361 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.0167062092164391 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.016566983103880262 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04990178313939189, "1": 0.07533756291206016, "2": 0.10225939243387056, "3": 0.12479321899518589, "4": 0.13692252673482921, "5": 0.13506877491860605, "6": 0.11979292107291865, "7": 0.09552201773351247, "8": 0.06848129406736751, "9": 0.044140430820620954, "10": 0.025579810050161165, "11": 0.01332766908521465, "12": 0.006243199676387952, "13": 0.0026293983598728757 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.040338801821690404, "1": 0.061292369562411436, "2": 0.08481287715557313, "3": 0.10687820434099529, "4": 0.12265590706559462, "5": 0.12819165544381986, "6": 0.12201213061743413, "7": 0.10575921864530531, "8": 0.08348441796269869, "9": 0.0600156592997679, "10": 0.03929123743268476, "11": 0.023426035627347172, "12": 0.012719611884267325, "13": 0.006289569026129545, "14": 0.0028323041142805784 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "HOU 5 - 4 OAK", "winner": "HOU" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "HOU 5 - 4 OAK", "winner": "HOU" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.023, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.11, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "HOU", "model_winner": "HOU", "simulation_winner": "HOU", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "HOU", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "HOU", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.8479, "winner": "HOU", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260925	20260925_LAA@SEA	LAA	51.8%	57.8%	55.6%	50.0%	4.0-3.0	7-5	hit	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.578224, "sample_size": 765, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5556, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.566912, "published_confidence": 0.518016, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 1.0, "absolute_net_margin": 1.0, "home_average_margin": 0.2, "home_run_delta": 0.0058, "away_run_delta": -0.0058, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.2925, "recent_quality_edge": 0.004, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.1915 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.025309438147978546 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02502257171946497 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02466559325279534 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02438602439780031 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.022571606970084864 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.0749914590661312, "1": 0.11131501654834457, "2": 0.14361002024871286, "3": 0.16102924925690743, "4": 0.15693283828551158, "5": 0.1329266094160098, "6": 0.09785861426025998, "7": 0.06261454548725327, "8": 0.034820935908458577, "9": 0.016830409530372015, "10": 0.007070301992038888 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.07185573387232927, "1": 0.10687961073926736, "2": 0.1387395555815372, "3": 0.15717292519696005, "4": 0.15539146977915638, "5": 0.13407524968392187, "6": 0.10095830620907562, "7": 0.0663448930785663, "8": 0.03804914854933896, "9": 0.019043834051560682, "10": 0.00831832406221615, "11": 0.0031709491960701503 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "LAA 4 - 3 SEA", "winner": "LAA" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "LAA 4 - 3 SEA", "winner": "LAA" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1068, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.066, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "LAA", "model_winner": "LAA", "simulation_winner": "LAA", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "LAA", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.1667, "draw_majority_team": "SEA", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.1915, "winner": "LAA", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260925	20260925_LAD@SF	LAD	56.6%	70.8%	55.1%	50.0%	6.0-2.0	2-0	hit	Embedded Savant Run Environment (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.707507, "sample_size": 225, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5511, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.629303, "published_confidence": 0.566085, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -21.0, "absolute_net_margin": 21.0, "home_average_margin": -4.2, "home_run_delta": -0.1212, "away_run_delta": 0.1212, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -6.0 }, { "home_margin": -6.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -2.0503, "recent_quality_edge": -0.844, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -1.6281 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.021617409322024078 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02107832412217367 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02068439688621547 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02016857872951201 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.020105743242268933 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.07869104693961267, "1": 0.11650075122911502, "2": 0.14912280570992986, "3": 0.1650332090768202, "4": 0.15791033722403067, "5": 0.1306356514502164, "6": 0.09343827403218008, "7": 0.057782967004837614, "8": 0.030894900883361526, "9": 0.014281890944736158, "10": 0.005708165505159845 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04343938324546503, "1": 0.06586512847369266, "2": 0.09056832894523185, "3": 0.11293955830289505, "4": 0.12772171273941635, "5": 0.13098823832457585, "6": 0.12182846928044673, "7": 0.10275765680636106, "8": 0.07860108047833068, "9": 0.05452450836519607, "10": 0.03430077394209542, "11": 0.019568836243371145, "12": 0.010124532931694182, "13": 0.0047504408447376, "14": 0.0020213510764902362 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "LAD 6 - 2 SF", "winner": "LAD" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "LAD 6 - 2 SF", "winner": "LAD" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0597, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.194, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 2, "winner": "LAD", "model_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "LAD", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "LAD", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 4, "simulation_margin": 4, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 2 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 2 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 4, "final_margin": 4, "winner_quality_edge": 1.6281, "winner": "LAD", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 2, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260925	20260925_NYM@WAS	WAS	51.3%	50.0%	55.1%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	6-7	hit	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.500403, "sample_size": 697, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5509, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.525652, "published_confidence": 0.512742, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -2.0, "absolute_net_margin": 2.0, "home_average_margin": -0.4, "home_run_delta": -0.0115, "away_run_delta": 0.0115, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.2956, "recent_quality_edge": 0.44, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.3461 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.0214835361590743 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.020521009322820093 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020306104305884167 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020223923478128188 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01995202556696031 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.057662189749258096, "1": 0.0866021771574065, "2": 0.11573027397060394, "3": 0.13760862139787888, "4": 0.14558773800571062, "5": 0.13705170559352345, "6": 0.11479542561456323, "7": 0.08555496386779218, "8": 0.05673438266178806, "9": 0.03347556738213934, "10": 0.01757478624086359, "11": 0.008209801335765531, "12": 0.003412367022706698 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.059868424148588215, "1": 0.08978056792344045, "2": 0.11943759387485021, "3": 0.14095286872315554, "4": 0.14756418674649383, "5": 0.13704468412152745, "6": 0.11290614924452042, "7": 0.08251771116133153, "8": 0.05349964826279301, "9": 0.030770096358277734, "10": 0.015699324338571834, "11": 0.0071057061450868104, "12": 0.0028530389513629615 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "NYM 4 - 5 WAS", "winner": "WAS" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "NYM 4 - 5 WAS", "winner": "WAS" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0379, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.23, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "WAS", "model_winner": "WAS", "simulation_winner": "WAS", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "WAS", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.1667, "draw_majority_team": "NYM", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.3461, "winner": "WAS", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260925	20260925_PIT@DET	PIT	50.5%	46.0%	54.3%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	7-8	miss	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.4601, "sample_size": 523, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.543, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.50155, "published_confidence": 0.505, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 3, "sample_weight": 0.0409, "home_net_margin": -1.0, "absolute_net_margin": 1.0, "home_average_margin": -0.333, "home_run_delta": -0.0068, "away_run_delta": 0.0068, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.2044, "recent_quality_edge": -0.308, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.0251 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020165295512702915 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01951703531267765 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.019281769926318203 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01882998761860547 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.018661912705708557 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.0551145687363461, "1": 0.08291969989389227, "2": 0.11138758270551441, "3": 0.13359911647943049, "4": 0.14307315111465027, "5": 0.13680452045387717, "6": 0.1167966814126634, "7": 0.08903244655401985, "8": 0.06059738198419804, "9": 0.036825373879283946, "10": 0.019981505987337746, "11": 0.00968048284219688, "12": 0.004187487956589366 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.05313629266449516, "1": 0.08005118685425801, "2": 0.10796984632716583, "3": 0.13037531606864838, "4": 0.14094395318478484, "5": 0.1364129828736201, "6": 0.11820154296040165, "7": 0.09169565749609052, "8": 0.06368432869220024, "9": 0.039598119734577455, "10": 0.022043204862124497, "11": 0.01098583551436156, "12": 0.0049017327672717225 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "PIT 5 - 4 DET", "winner": "PIT" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "PIT 5 - 4 DET", "winner": "PIT" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0627, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.4247, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "PIT", "model_winner": "PIT", "simulation_winner": "PIT", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "PIT", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "PIT", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.0251, "winner": "PIT", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260925	20260925_STL@MIL	MIL	54.2%	63.0%	55.4%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	4-8	hit	Variance Applied (0.4881)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.629601, "sample_size": 807, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5539, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.59175, "published_confidence": 0.542272, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 10.0, "absolute_net_margin": 10.0, "home_average_margin": 2.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0577, "away_run_delta": -0.0577, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": 8.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.6572, "recent_quality_edge": 0.628, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 1.297 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01954975966568399 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.019236645229298716 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.0187161066785954 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.018416344262370828 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01810344322405414 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.044939015489053935, "1": 0.06807003105797334, "2": 0.09331646246892544, "3": 0.11577919025637004, "4": 0.13000877672736497, "5": 0.13212492662589964, "6": 0.12152531888750913, "7": 0.10116230182459161, "8": 0.07621501842305357, "9": 0.051967561456174365, "10": 0.03206963674980345, "11": 0.017911240535921084, "12": 0.009053723243334102, "13": 0.0041418911973959294, "14": 0.0017149050566293688 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.06034150312408804, "1": 0.09046081228988125, "2": 0.12022608154222918, "3": 0.14165462306434004, "4": 0.14796420452166043, "5": 0.13701762177936705, "6": 0.11248381498743543, "7": 0.08186485563762541, "8": 0.05282005072176022, "9": 0.030213008870686075, "10": 0.015320854676726997, "11": 0.006887567353270577, "12": 0.0027450014309293256 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "STL 4 - 5 MIL", "winner": "MIL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "STL 4 - 5 MIL", "winner": "MIL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.032, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.838, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "MIL", "model_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 5, "published_winner": "MIL", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "MIL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 1.297, "winner": "MIL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260925	20260925_TB@PHI	PHI	53.5%	54.5%	55.9%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	2-0	miss	Variance Applied (0.2145)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.544574, "sample_size": 777, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5586, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.551587, "published_confidence": 0.534728, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": false, "sample_size": 0, "home_net_margin": 0.0, "home_average_margin": 0.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0, "away_run_delta": 0.0 }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.4182, "recent_quality_edge": -0.212, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.3461 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.021992844724931133 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02166974976278027 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020865101192465617 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02066206861084593 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.020558573812112155 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05639297909467745, "1": 0.08476922460065571, "2": 0.11357503047095635, "3": 0.13563100881982512, "4": 0.1443665575330821, "5": 0.13696376568880175, "6": 0.11581805144117163, "7": 0.08729277475545293, "8": 0.058642411586064085, "9": 0.03511371853542469, "10": 0.018740160413737522, "11": 0.008914587727973168, "12": 0.0037797293321773988 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.06635016959839081, "1": 0.0990605900509077, "2": 0.13004170747773308, "3": 0.150102282225678, "4": 0.1523403002796641, "5": 0.13594561339558078, "6": 0.10666906036600156, "7": 0.07359268018052652, "8": 0.04464302861079972, "9": 0.023811982744425923, "10": 0.011167612807789402, "11": 0.004605194916645022, "12": 0.0016697773458576035 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "TB 4 - 5 PHI", "winner": "PHI" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "TB 4 - 5 PHI", "winner": "PHI" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0926, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.212, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "PHI", "model_winner": "PHI", "simulation_winner": "PHI", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "PHI", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "PHI", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.3461, "winner": "PHI", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260925	20260925_TEX@MIN	MIN	54.2%	50.3%	55.5%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	2-10	hit	Variance Applied (0.6478)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.502814, "sample_size": 701, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5549, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.528857, "published_confidence": 0.542262, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 3, "sample_weight": 0.0409, "home_net_margin": 18.0, "absolute_net_margin": 18.0, "home_average_margin": 6.0, "home_run_delta": 0.1227, "away_run_delta": -0.1227, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 6.0 }, { "home_margin": 10.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.1887, "recent_quality_edge": -0.208, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.1954 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.0180177546808895 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.017654977867611027 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.017478845981287693 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.0171269197753214 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01686284750396119 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04259873526506877, "1": 0.06462719448205248, "2": 0.08901767156046338, "3": 0.11132161191908937, "4": 0.12639359634264366, "5": 0.13029057036003194, "6": 0.12193916823141471, "7": 0.10361337026275892, "8": 0.07993384452349193, "9": 0.05598709470015372, "10": 0.03560307348349121, "11": 0.02055556311997908, "12": 0.010774908626396535, "13": 0.005127907022567653, "14": 0.0022156901003966044 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.05100449885124637, "1": 0.07694497445091776, "2": 0.10420791775237594, "3": 0.1266980292321072, "4": 0.13828901532245225, "5": 0.1355046479482362, "6": 0.11919811386114777, "7": 0.09413112686464174, "8": 0.06673379384150006, "9": 0.042472424810719465, "10": 0.024267049735708663, "11": 0.012447312342171427, "12": 0.005731692435786659, "13": 0.0023694025509884854 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "TEX 4 - 5 MIN", "winner": "MIN" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "TEX 4 - 5 MIN", "winner": "MIN" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0542, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.142, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "MIN", "model_winner": "MIN", "simulation_winner": "MIN", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 1, "published_winner": "MIN", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "MIN", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.1954, "winner": "MIN", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260926	20260926_ARI@SD	ARI	53.4%	51.0%	57.2%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	7-10	miss	Variance Applied (-0.0458)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 465, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.572, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.54105, "published_confidence": 0.534245, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -8.0, "absolute_net_margin": 8.0, "home_average_margin": -1.6, "home_run_delta": -0.0462, "away_run_delta": 0.0462, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -7.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": -6.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.1281, "recent_quality_edge": -0.088, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.0525 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01803379593889277 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01794868054256858 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.017932666842347355 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.017848028752252068 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.01635724048447301 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04858614807884196, "1": 0.07341661896536385, "2": 0.09991834810806084, "3": 0.12247996831960009, "4": 0.13522401909828316, "5": 0.13446571602504295, "6": 0.12043098886620138, "7": 0.09714800590381996, "8": 0.07058273508043446, "9": 0.04618830559300412, "10": 0.02722290906232822, "11": 0.014451269121562924, "12": 0.006909496478844359, "13": 0.0029754712986116774 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04682123222894069, "1": 0.07083116823872887, "2": 0.09673290600384894, "3": 0.1192593201479422, "4": 0.13273293208008533, "5": 0.13336237200423318, "6": 0.12096401655229817, "7": 0.09904837411213087, "8": 0.07321612962906868, "9": 0.04885786083663063, "10": 0.029432719623925963, "11": 0.016006434543198576, "12": 0.007858272359860361, "13": 0.003482794222376331, "14": 0.0013934674167312153 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "ARI 5 - 4 SD", "winner": "ARI" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "ARI 5 - 4 SD", "winner": "ARI" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.018, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.158, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "ARI", "model_winner": "ARI", "simulation_winner": "ARI", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 5, "published_winner": "ARI", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.8, "draw_majority_team": "ARI", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.0525, "winner": "ARI", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260926	20260926_ATL@MIA	ATL	53.0%	50.0%	56.9%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	8-3	hit	Variance Applied (-0.6455)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5005, "sample_size": 353, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5694, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.53495, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -16.0, "absolute_net_margin": 16.0, "home_average_margin": -3.2, "home_run_delta": -0.0923, "away_run_delta": 0.0923, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": -8.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -6.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.8, "recent_quality_edge": 0.048, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.5032 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.0210531712486435 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.020008616064416312 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01995373268880816 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.01975233582243306 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.019749340307225555 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05823460361004147, "1": 0.0874277709202297, "2": 0.11669691755739614, "3": 0.13848765480051034, "4": 0.14611824052216066, "5": 0.13706908204392818, "6": 0.1143184353264038, "7": 0.0847685464132098, "8": 0.05588495396954374, "9": 0.03275644452460747, "10": 0.017070266909069855, "11": 0.007909072643204047, "12": 0.003258010759694918 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.05610733384565717, "1": 0.08435625639983495, "2": 0.1130877151903661, "3": 0.13518049322142892, "4": 0.14408311497188145, "5": 0.1369344169004126, "6": 0.11604130653491891, "7": 0.0876825292035473, "8": 0.05907639593774414, "9": 0.0354907667396488, "10": 0.01901153733254394, "11": 0.009080704784192891, "12": 0.003867428937822902 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "ATL 5 - 4 MIA", "winner": "ATL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "ATL 5 - 4 MIA", "winner": "ATL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0103, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.162, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "ATL", "model_winner": "ATL", "simulation_winner": "ATL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 5, "published_winner": "ATL", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6, "draw_majority_team": "ATL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.5032, "winner": "ATL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260926	20260926_CHC@BOS	BOS	53.9%	56.5%	55.6%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	Official result pending	void_not_on_official_schedule	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.565085, "sample_size": 773, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5563, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.560693, "published_confidence": 0.539161, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": false, "sample_size": 0, "home_net_margin": 0.0, "home_average_margin": 0.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0, "away_run_delta": 0.0 }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.4497, "recent_quality_edge": -0.348, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.4141 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.021877714980082407 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02180144841689067 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02100981749150837 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.020936576452632884 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020360419707339754 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.054409100278046324, "1": 0.08189766519653537, "2": 0.1101733570655604, "3": 0.13246060397059425, "4": 0.14233180756649885, "5": 0.13668544923137887, "6": 0.1173134184218084, "7": 0.08998667010005955, "8": 0.06168985628445198, "9": 0.0377967468145148, "10": 0.020696655477235985, "11": 0.010128636959237849, "12": 0.00443003263407748 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.06869927251059584, "1": 0.10240223942495302, "2": 0.13377856585292025, "3": 0.15317341070585935, "4": 0.15370924710459338, "5": 0.1351874490738366, "6": 0.10420594982001857, "7": 0.07039931367072035, "8": 0.04168349246581549, "9": 0.021631146512603932, "10": 0.009838179540524307, "11": 0.00392165797554387, "12": 0.0013700753420151355 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CHC 4 - 5 BOS", "winner": "BOS" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CHC 4 - 5 BOS", "winner": "BOS" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.058, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.348, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "BOS", "model_winner": "BOS", "simulation_winner": "BOS", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 5, "published_winner": "BOS", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.4, "draw_majority_team": "CHC", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.4141, "winner": "BOS", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260926	20260926_CIN@TOR	TOR	62.0%	72.6%	56.2%	50.0%	3.0-5.0	5-1	miss	Variance Applied (0.71)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.726013, "sample_size": 292, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5616, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.643806, "published_confidence": 0.619523, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 1, "sample_weight": 0.0167, "home_net_margin": 1.0, "absolute_net_margin": 1.0, "home_average_margin": 1.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0083, "away_run_delta": -0.0083, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.75, "recent_quality_edge": -0.14, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.4385 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.020778313221030298 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020315637561909895 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.020113313837719755 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.019665445878565897 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.01949790213356225 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04224360983072501, "1": 0.06410382227170823, "2": 0.08836041917523721, "3": 0.11063245460325823, "4": 0.12582248777169777, "5": 0.12998251219382267, "6": 0.12197266808282566, "7": 0.10396593418079533, "8": 0.0804953022701961, "9": 0.056611016066851566, "10": 0.03616448649758915, "11": 0.020985271625929294, "12": 0.011061087449556108, "13": 0.0052958051275116425, "14": 0.0023031228522962586 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.07413411683702527, "1": 0.11009349437321107, "2": 0.14223202868901244, "3": 0.15985468252872997, "4": 0.1562951601644408, "5": 0.13294068344667506, "6": 0.09836995985917302, "7": 0.06332268054698986, "8": 0.03546078108393206, "9": 0.01727545575863595, "10": 0.007321548433805154, "11": 0.0026994082783691675 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CIN 3 - 5 TOR", "winner": "TOR" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CIN 3 - 5 TOR", "winner": "TOR" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0898, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.21, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "TOR", "model_winner": "TOR", "simulation_winner": "TOR", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "TOR", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.4385, "winner": "TOR", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260926	20260926_CLE@KC	CLE	56.0%	70.5%	56.7%	50.0%	6.0-5.0	11-5	hit	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.70523, "sample_size": 616, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5666, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.635915, "published_confidence": 0.56, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -8.0, "absolute_net_margin": 8.0, "home_average_margin": -1.6, "home_run_delta": -0.0462, "away_run_delta": 0.0462, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -10.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.9062, "recent_quality_edge": -1.016, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.9447 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.01489839592462102 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.014540261388299775 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.014510453280705873 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01418269176349365 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.014161644289201717 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04359102554784401, "1": 0.06608828849060187, "2": 0.09084727251416246, "3": 0.1132294117583556, "4": 0.12795774529356252, "5": 0.13110941406729565, "6": 0.12180388594618137, "7": 0.10260024106864014, "8": 0.07836020946756997, "9": 0.05426287062061741, "10": 0.03406982570659096, "11": 0.01939532352751463, "12": 0.010011153367146272, "13": 0.004685232754657416, "14": 0.001988099869259802 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.027203818102535974, "1": 0.041706870744147986, "2": 0.05928515648082174, "3": 0.07813488110103692, "4": 0.0954782744192245, "5": 0.1081744729345978, "6": 0.11363330414224865, "7": 0.11067438127103496, "8": 0.09994226580323683, "9": 0.08367811729284656, "10": 0.06495838666578768, "11": 0.04675404392113401, "12": 0.031200657893066492, "13": 0.019304961656551062, "14": 0.01107477102547963, "15": 0.005890622459420496, "16": 0.0029050140868287903 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CLE 6 - 5 KC", "winner": "CLE" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CLE 6 - 5 KC", "winner": "CLE" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0587, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.086, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "CLE", "model_winner": "CLE", "simulation_winner": "CLE", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "CLE", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333, "draw_majority_team": "KC", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.9447, "winner": "CLE", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260926	20260926_COL@CHW	CHW	69.8%	92.0%	61.8%	17.0%	4.0-9.0	9-6	miss	Enhanced Prediction (3.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.92, "sample_size": 34, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.6176, "empirical_weight": 0.17, "blended_confidence": 0.868592, "published_confidence": 0.697769, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 1, "sample_weight": 0.0167, "home_net_margin": 5.0, "absolute_net_margin": 5.0, "home_average_margin": 5.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0417, "away_run_delta": -0.0417, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.8063, "recent_quality_edge": 1.008, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 1.5269 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 8, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.015168834596376734 }, { "home_runs": 8, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.014983907785142754 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.014861882145506478 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.014680697463410981 }, { "home_runs": 9, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.014590877602594808 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.016040265683499547, "1": 0.024793303050629482, "2": 0.03611669620674972, "3": 0.04958295881930362, "4": 0.06415162450466746, "5": 0.07822285689703878, "6": 0.08988981452878998, "7": 0.09735047863980041, "8": 0.09936112357153364, "9": 0.09557530496343074, "10": 0.08664144502830254, "11": 0.074021260667543, "12": 0.05959887522992751, "13": 0.04522415343078239, "14": 0.032341013374538256, "15": 0.021796541965763416, "16": 0.013844343551605793, "17": 0.008287202168815065, "18": 0.0046751364993504714, "19": 0.002485601217928002 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.06687720644363025, "1": 0.09981131989150051, "2": 0.13088502391847667, "3": 0.15080251960270258, "4": 0.15266367821873658, "5": 0.13579110708290734, "6": 0.10612444188854266, "7": 0.07287322549364426, "8": 0.04396722429039417, "9": 0.023307655388322277, "10": 0.010856169381336924, "11": 0.004442864991062478, "12": 0.0015975634087433037 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 9, "score_text": "COL 4 - 9 CHW", "winner": "CHW" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 9, "score_text": "COL 4 - 9 CHW", "winner": "CHW" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0845, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 1.358, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 9, "winner": "CHW", "model_winner": "CHW", "simulation_winner": "CHW", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 5, "published_winner": "CHW", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "CHW", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 5, "simulation_margin": 5, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 9 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 9 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 5, "final_margin": 5, "winner_quality_edge": 1.5269, "winner": "CHW", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 9, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260926	20260926_HOU@OAK	HOU	52.3%	53.9%	55.8%	50.0%	6.0-5.0	13-2	hit	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.538659, "sample_size": 787, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5578, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.54823, "published_confidence": 0.522895, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -3.0, "absolute_net_margin": 3.0, "home_average_margin": -0.6, "home_run_delta": -0.0173, "away_run_delta": 0.0173, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.1781, "recent_quality_edge": -0.3, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.8708 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.015880305020020583 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.01541952807832275 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.015269921787645196 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.015068122664044503 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01494840117513054 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.03897322171158254, "1": 0.05927245034460548, "2": 0.0822465585456707, "3": 0.10412640341850654, "4": 0.12027691516691238, "5": 0.12675992506189404, "6": 0.12188771809248154, "7": 0.10693409521488689, "8": 0.08559546028280388, "9": 0.06251202161333529, "10": 0.04165380084864542, "11": 0.025323516234157385, "12": 0.014046614395148028, "13": 0.007108821220311337, "14": 0.0032824778490586812 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.037673664041840804, "1": 0.057346823591476276, "2": 0.07978642786349215, "3": 0.10146045900082837, "4": 0.11792686977237932, "5": 0.12527859268034897, "6": 0.12164355628006042, "7": 0.10795667440956991, "8": 0.0875705412781383, "9": 0.06492541250038604, "10": 0.043996643767718065, "11": 0.027250377672528595, "12": 0.015426721894556397, "13": 0.007982205824466336, "14": 0.0037750294222101 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "HOU 6 - 5 OAK", "winner": "HOU" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "HOU 6 - 5 OAK", "winner": "HOU" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0392, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.23, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "HOU", "model_winner": "HOU", "simulation_winner": "HOU", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "HOU", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "HOU", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.8708, "winner": "HOU", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260926	20260926_LAA@SEA	SEA	51.8%	51.0%	55.9%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	4-8	hit	Variance Applied (0.2711)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 707, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5587, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5344, "published_confidence": 0.518021, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -2.0, "absolute_net_margin": 2.0, "home_average_margin": -0.4, "home_run_delta": -0.0115, "away_run_delta": 0.0115, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.2563, "recent_quality_edge": -0.02, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.1596 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02257426120080997 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02204728932326133 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02179176748277193 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02128306208048449 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02068228589014084 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.062078206866095276, "1": 0.09295409953075344, "2": 0.12310107178245816, "3": 0.1441846481274884, "4": 0.1493619969353114, "5": 0.13684379277172584, "6": 0.11088530504611514, "7": 0.07946699491040504, "8": 0.05036901831890688, "9": 0.028236059264682093, "10": 0.013999372986092403, "11": 0.006138708147383689, "12": 0.0023807253125822875 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.06451258961215141, "1": 0.09643853633014901, "2": 0.12707910531298816, "3": 0.1476097653729817, "4": 0.1511379177033022, "5": 0.1364109338774332, "6": 0.10852813326401499, "7": 0.07611195670364757, "8": 0.04705229857554568, "9": 0.025640483158079163, "10": 0.012316546990002083, "11": 0.005215177985768744, "12": 0.0019465551139359906 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "LAA 4 - 5 SEA", "winner": "SEA" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "LAA 4 - 5 SEA", "winner": "SEA" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0737, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.23, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "SEA", "model_winner": "SEA", "simulation_winner": "SEA", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "SEA", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "SEA", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.1596, "winner": "SEA", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260926	20260926_LAD@SF	LAD	55.3%	61.9%	55.8%	50.0%	4.0-2.0	4-3	hit	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.619065, "sample_size": 292, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5582, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.588632, "published_confidence": 0.553474, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -19.0, "absolute_net_margin": 19.0, "home_average_margin": -3.8, "home_run_delta": -0.1096, "away_run_delta": 0.1096, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -6.0 }, { "home_margin": -6.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -2.0719, "recent_quality_edge": -0.84, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -1.6407 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.027502141466107275 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.027324754845414745 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02636601713718198 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02619595842786839 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.024280974995940452 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.09511693550481244, "1": 0.1391618497342937, "2": 0.17191443929042818, "3": 0.17932231496445125, "4": 0.1579378194556346, "5": 0.11745398546860773, "6": 0.07375291626295905, "7": 0.03910393444910606, "8": 0.01750618583168421, "9": 0.006617476864556217, "10": 0.0021121421734665844 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.06808124051857248, "1": 0.1015242009927863, "2": 0.1328009165916416, "3": 0.1523778836495145, "4": 0.15336708915206276, "5": 0.13540409067747033, "6": 0.10486263526310913, "7": 0.07123593399268578, "8": 0.04244894007317826, "9": 0.02218829600536214, "10": 0.010173500809013004, "11": 0.004091723416182939, "12": 0.0014435488584206692 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "LAD 4 - 2 SF", "winner": "LAD" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "LAD 4 - 2 SF", "winner": "LAD" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0175, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.19, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "winner": "LAD", "model_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "LAD", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "LAD", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 1.6407, "winner": "LAD", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260926	20260926_NYM@WAS	WAS	50.6%	46.8%	54.2%	50.0%	6.0-7.0	7-1	miss	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.468452, "sample_size": 535, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5421, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.505276, "published_confidence": 0.506441, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -5.0, "absolute_net_margin": 5.0, "home_average_margin": -1.0, "home_run_delta": -0.0288, "away_run_delta": 0.0288, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.3156, "recent_quality_edge": 0.424, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.3536 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.017648647162557214 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.017647250177868265 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.017332425728731476 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.017331053774658035 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01627121860575567 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04462036389899704, "1": 0.06760188945516278, "2": 0.09273446007802161, "3": 0.1151807885520235, "4": 0.1295315414436107, "5": 0.13189477959630952, "6": 0.12160075341766621, "7": 0.10150828995386697, "8": 0.0767226056418621, "9": 0.05250513297075402, "10": 0.03253394798725963, "11": 0.018252752285204135, "12": 0.00927206651014738, "13": 0.004264629464254882, "14": 0.00177599874485938 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04758884166953851, "1": 0.07195520718178232, "2": 0.09811573080238492, "3": 0.1206519593227498, "4": 0.13379794281381888, "5": 0.13380853447402882, "6": 0.12068061460010866, "7": 0.09815457194612387, "8": 0.0719950892811674, "9": 0.04762275729015756, "10": 0.028408317954862563, "11": 0.015282549965377363, "12": 0.0074142196773282956, "13": 0.0032438024390931226, "14": 0.0012798605814779713 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 7, "score_text": "NYM 6 - 7 WAS", "winner": "WAS" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 7, "score_text": "NYM 6 - 7 WAS", "winner": "WAS" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.017, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.214, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 7, "winner": "WAS", "model_winner": "WAS", "simulation_winner": "WAS", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "WAS", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "WAS", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 7 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 7 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.3536, "winner": "WAS", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 7, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260926	20260926_PIT@DET	PIT	51.3%	49.0%	56.2%	50.0%	6.0-4.0	3-4	miss	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.489827, "sample_size": 697, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5624, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.526114, "published_confidence": 0.513337, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 4, "sample_weight": 0.05, "home_net_margin": 0.0, "absolute_net_margin": 0.0, "home_average_margin": 0.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0, "away_run_delta": -0.0, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.225, "recent_quality_edge": -0.188, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.0805 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.021251732544393952 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020213408043470524 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.020110016951405126 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02000592405410092 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.019845006453339066 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.058977107156862565, "1": 0.08849769353490979, "2": 0.1179458167108024, "3": 0.13961601443502344, "4": 0.14678782476000188, "5": 0.13707142810821182, "6": 0.11368572736156705, "7": 0.08374657530301198, "8": 0.05479365513496946, "9": 0.031841652036134045, "10": 0.01643474675969841, "11": 0.007534120209021072, "12": 0.0030676384897860972 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.0568140329921043, "1": 0.08537765794637749, "2": 0.11429183999327426, "3": 0.13629144029357074, "4": 0.14477857805400782, "5": 0.13700057878972596, "6": 0.11548427872411408, "7": 0.08671729050008867, "8": 0.05800573077944998, "9": 0.03456356053841957, "10": 0.018346296834493053, "11": 0.008674825080990099, "12": 0.0036538894733838334 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "PIT 6 - 4 DET", "winner": "PIT" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "PIT 6 - 4 DET", "winner": "PIT" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0004, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.188, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "PIT", "model_winner": "PIT", "simulation_winner": "PIT", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 4, "published_winner": "PIT", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "PIT", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": -0.0805, "winner": "PIT", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260926	20260926_STL@MIL	MIL	53.5%	58.6%	56.2%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	2-3	hit	Variance Applied (0.6694)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5864, "sample_size": 694, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.562, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5742, "published_confidence": 0.535444, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 13.0, "absolute_net_margin": 13.0, "home_average_margin": 2.6, "home_run_delta": 0.075, "away_run_delta": -0.075, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": 8.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.7063, "recent_quality_edge": 0.976, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 1.4507 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020825757469493236 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020594257526547213 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.020572940634448512 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02034425101343073 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.018944726513292136 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.049498693925751826, "1": 0.07474938200880432, "2": 0.1015440169876522, "3": 0.12408918707072732, "4": 0.13641006180312826, "5": 0.1348937221659772, "6": 0.11999687544342001, "7": 0.09602426763953185, "8": 0.06912337518274925, "9": 0.044761201416735154, "10": 0.026074224475584995, "11": 0.013663247393895508, "12": 0.006440644529857688, "13": 0.002731099956184336 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.06688807027951396, "1": 0.09982678859806086, "2": 0.13090237726883464, "3": 0.1508168852246405, "4": 0.1526702443662088, "5": 0.13578782571725037, "6": 0.10611316490593604, "7": 0.07285841204270513, "8": 0.043953365564705485, "9": 0.02329735239391861, "10": 0.010849831724317935, "11": 0.004439575399941329, "12": 0.0015961065139661799 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "STL 4 - 5 MIL", "winner": "MIL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "STL 4 - 5 MIL", "winner": "MIL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0046, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 1.186, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "MIL", "model_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "MIL", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "MIL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 1.4507, "winner": "MIL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260926	20260926_TB@PHI	TB	60.8%	67.2%	57.4%	50.0%	4.0-2.0	12-1	hit	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.6725, "sample_size": 462, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5736, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.62305, "published_confidence": 0.607565, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 1, "sample_weight": 0.0167, "home_net_margin": -2.0, "absolute_net_margin": 2.0, "home_average_margin": -2.0, "home_run_delta": -0.0167, "away_run_delta": 0.0167, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.45, "recent_quality_edge": -0.444, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.4479 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.029424694533238965 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02834782369755784 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.028317766465058694 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02728140645107781 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02706508331709843 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.11654530713558094, "1": 0.16782408556570202, "2": 0.1976687058579241, "3": 0.19043452151576304, "4": 0.15006436326796552, "5": 0.09672385365511897, "6": 0.05099337343507729, "7": 0.021989635278576232, "8": 0.007756154288291883 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.06143683079838174, "1": 0.09203403377067901, "2": 0.12204290817236979, "3": 0.14325872343906731, "4": 0.14885863903205898, "5": 0.13692143730910886, "6": 0.11148419261950991, "7": 0.08035253354247618, "8": 0.051266101702421074, "9": 0.028953792184500678, "10": 0.014475215876918569, "11": 0.006406031707294634, "12": 0.002509559845213063 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "TB 4 - 2 PHI", "winner": "TB" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "TB 4 - 2 PHI", "winner": "TB" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0828, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.794, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "winner": "TB", "model_winner": "TB", "simulation_winner": "TB", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "TB", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "TB", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.4479, "winner": "TB", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260926	20260926_TEX@MIN	MIN	51.0%	51.6%	54.2%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	6-2	miss	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.516374, "sample_size": 535, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5421, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.529237, "published_confidence": 0.509982, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 4, "sample_weight": 0.05, "home_net_margin": 26.0, "absolute_net_margin": 26.0, "home_average_margin": 6.5, "home_run_delta": 0.1625, "away_run_delta": -0.1625, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 8.0 }, { "home_margin": 6.0 }, { "home_margin": 10.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.0781, "recent_quality_edge": 0.304, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.0556 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020065926417066646 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01952625222548985 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019151084998096483 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.01876433639918112 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.018636015516660744 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05225386477913831, "1": 0.07876913931446108, "2": 0.1064325046089771, "3": 0.12890594991057908, "4": 0.13994331069430221, "5": 0.13617952767747163, "6": 0.1187823743730222, "7": 0.09286940863741383, "8": 0.06508394315667859, "9": 0.040884202739433974, "10": 0.023020656705595582, "11": 0.011618776105628193, "12": 0.005256341297298221 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.055418150897595796, "1": 0.08335920152209905, "2": 0.11190853861239396, "3": 0.134085268571148, "4": 0.14338610625626444, "5": 0.1368488776139567, "6": 0.11656913442074517, "7": 0.0886204736351373, "8": 0.06013021065253792, "9": 0.03641325874419708, "10": 0.019680427696401555, "11": 0.00949331039405321, "12": 0.0040870409834697415 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "TEX 4 - 5 MIN", "winner": "MIN" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "TEX 4 - 5 MIN", "winner": "MIN" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0525, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.654, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "MIN", "model_winner": "MIN", "simulation_winner": "MIN", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "MIN", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "MIN", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.0556, "winner": "MIN", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260927	20260927_ARI@SD	ARI	51.1%	51.0%	55.4%	50.0%	6.0-4.0	4-9	miss	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 681, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5536, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.53185, "published_confidence": 0.510815, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -1.0, "absolute_net_margin": 1.0, "home_average_margin": -0.2, "home_run_delta": -0.0058, "away_run_delta": 0.0058, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": -7.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": -6.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.1739, "recent_quality_edge": 0.3, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.218 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.018788937777961208 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01841548708876178 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.018213197731838507 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.017851190505785593 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.017438993284560795 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05438607200724093, "1": 0.08045611194386895, "2": 0.10708620943737558, "3": 0.1282363674218316, "4": 0.13816308596745053, "5": 0.13392942345670128, "6": 0.11680545626580846, "7": 0.09165442088787944, "8": 0.06470634392801054, "9": 0.04110015525706945, "10": 0.023487847564154972, "11": 0.012076640365850828, "12": 0.005586659518557123, "13": 0.0023252059782004238 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.052490155300874176, "1": 0.07774674338896906, "2": 0.10386176863950734, "3": 0.12514064220362323, "4": 0.13599101124874732, "5": 0.1332880411566678, "6": 0.11782605200179402, "7": 0.09394217800686316, "8": 0.06755369085737498, "9": 0.04381337387829081, "10": 0.025629106835708328, "11": 0.013521641075198397, "12": 0.006434199078549912, "13": 0.002761396327831488 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "ARI 6 - 4 SD", "winner": "ARI" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "ARI 6 - 4 SD", "winner": "ARI" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0503, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.37, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "ARI", "model_winner": "ARI", "simulation_winner": "ARI", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 4, "published_winner": "ARI", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "ARI", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": -0.218, "winner": "ARI", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260927	20260927_ATL@MIA	MIA	50.5%	53.5%	54.4%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	3-5	hit	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.534653, "sample_size": 575, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5443, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.539476, "published_confidence": 0.505, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -15.0, "absolute_net_margin": 15.0, "home_average_margin": -3.0, "home_run_delta": -0.0865, "away_run_delta": 0.0865, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": -8.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.8665, "recent_quality_edge": -0.244, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.6486 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01879252567582952 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01834968276533369 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.018286738419500903 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01785581430611345 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.01739032430162938 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05313747959369345, "1": 0.07867257179407998, "2": 0.10496656774399866, "3": 0.12620713232480718, "4": 0.1367483371335385, "5": 0.13352588408670993, "6": 0.11749357633285612, "7": 0.09316827130280064, "8": 0.06657745726759093, "9": 0.04287376514288838, "10": 0.024880625691614474, "11": 0.013011765379481434, "12": 0.006132201298568239, "13": 0.0026043649073721918 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.053727296411862344, "1": 0.07951545921622881, "2": 0.10596971948049938, "3": 0.12717027984513807, "4": 0.13742416229513713, "5": 0.1337254902166993, "6": 0.11717606999664779, "7": 0.09245646539383538, "8": 0.06569151438506744, "9": 0.04202956452056519, "10": 0.02421442360407214, "11": 0.012562237796326496, "12": 0.005868586545242527, "13": 0.0024687302926780855 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "ATL 4 - 5 MIA", "winner": "MIA" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "ATL 4 - 5 MIA", "winner": "MIA" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.068, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.454, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "MIA", "model_winner": "MIA", "simulation_winner": "MIA", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "MIA", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.6486, "winner": "MIA", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260927	20260927_BAL@NYY	NYY	52.0%	58.9%	55.8%	50.0%	5.0-6.0	Official result pending	void_not_final_or_postponed	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.589259, "sample_size": 800, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5575, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.57338, "published_confidence": 0.519546, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 4.0, "absolute_net_margin": 4.0, "home_average_margin": 0.8, "home_run_delta": 0.0231, "away_run_delta": -0.0231, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": -8.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.118, "recent_quality_edge": -0.236, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.6441 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.015560277883316964 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.015443206829582884 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.015434788380284632 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01531866147346507 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01444130257049305 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.03605963134948096, "1": 0.05397537039259128, "2": 0.0744181960430895, "3": 0.09450870301584419, "4": 0.11055378763425736, "5": 0.11911997884159857, "6": 0.11822375439442986, "7": 0.1080771899877771, "8": 0.09100651840925159, "9": 0.07058625062851821, "10": 0.05042859701007403, "11": 0.033185075927962944, "12": 0.020114901199286897, "13": 0.011230579071376751, "14": 0.005775579340823469, "15": 0.0027358867536375576 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04756980749794565, "1": 0.07067979213789004, "2": 0.09531194522220308, "3": 0.11665076803567553, "4": 0.12957346475698467, "5": 0.1306269362590171, "6": 0.11951918140694263, "7": 0.09925003734542122, "8": 0.07480178258947993, "9": 0.05116599407432596, "10": 0.03176428504910764, "11": 0.017897194300115014, "12": 0.009152063426141131, "13": 0.004247577281823058, "14": 0.0017891706169271995 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "BAL 5 - 6 NYY", "winner": "NYY" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "BAL 5 - 6 NYY", "winner": "NYY" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0053, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.026, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "NYY", "model_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "NYY", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.6441, "winner": "NYY", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260927	20260927_CHC@BOS	CHC	50.5%	46.0%	54.1%	50.0%	4.0-3.0	6-2	hit	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.4601, "sample_size": 543, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5414, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.50075, "published_confidence": 0.505149, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 2, "sample_weight": 0.03, "home_net_margin": 3.0, "absolute_net_margin": 3.0, "home_average_margin": 1.5, "home_run_delta": 0.0225, "away_run_delta": -0.0225, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.3882, "recent_quality_edge": -0.024, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.2607 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.029383700649558718 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02778001810339291 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.02741811341741829 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02710160893474656 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.026608606813468372 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.09172854398067469, "1": 0.13237168861944973, "2": 0.1635412816131467, "3": 0.17298217894893925, "4": 0.15664517006500592, "5": 0.12144351604917995, "6": 0.08060710710699964, "7": 0.045805119074394954, "8": 0.022284165566779278, "9": 0.009281548006219121, "10": 0.003309680969210848 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.0879746086753731, "1": 0.1272878479517881, "2": 0.15850253236497586, "3": 0.16986547879150127, "4": 0.15667283820460137, "5": 0.12436608278195374, "6": 0.08496300432101335, "7": 0.04995482331988761, "8": 0.025278113226768803, "9": 0.01100858609825407, "10": 0.004126084263882452 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "CHC 4 - 3 BOS", "winner": "CHC" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "CHC 4 - 3 BOS", "winner": "CHC" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0533, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.326, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "CHC", "model_winner": "CHC", "simulation_winner": "CHC", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "CHC", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "CHC", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.2607, "winner": "CHC", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260927	20260927_CIN@TOR	TOR	51.2%	51.0%	55.7%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	1-5	hit	Variance Applied (0.5778)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 778, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5566, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.53335, "published_confidence": 0.511591, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 2, "sample_weight": 0.03, "home_net_margin": -3.0, "absolute_net_margin": 3.0, "home_average_margin": -1.5, "home_run_delta": -0.0225, "away_run_delta": 0.0225, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.6863, "recent_quality_edge": -0.408, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.3033 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.019257563954809338 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.018711973556305998 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.018498638556385873 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.018000695984678388 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.0179745494449369 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05397739188979234, "1": 0.07987266282782957, "2": 0.10639407062351858, "3": 0.127576205837264, "4": 0.13770665636471252, "5": 0.13380525794802323, "6": 0.11703733404877903, "7": 0.09215282564633, "8": 0.06531694848338757, "9": 0.041675048337690326, "10": 0.02393642748071255, "11": 0.012375864541144685, "12": 0.005760030152038387, "13": 0.002413275818777227 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.05594437241598566, "1": 0.08267788516162973, "2": 0.10971062226321912, "3": 0.1307176897607913, "4": 0.13984483004079468, "5": 0.13433365564691882, "6": 0.11586429347660589, "7": 0.08973064060056507, "8": 0.06239622063433038, "9": 0.038958494714177366, "10": 0.021840994905488992, "11": 0.0109943367043214, "12": 0.0049692633730431405, "13": 0.0020167003021286513 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CIN 4 - 5 TOR", "winner": "TOR" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CIN 4 - 5 TOR", "winner": "TOR" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1154, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.408, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "TOR", "model_winner": "TOR", "simulation_winner": "TOR", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "TOR", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.3033, "winner": "TOR", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260927	20260927_CLE@KC	CLE	56.0%	90.9%	56.0%	50.0%	6.0-4.0	2-3	miss	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.909286, "sample_size": 293, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5597, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.734493, "published_confidence": 0.56, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -11.0, "absolute_net_margin": 11.0, "home_average_margin": -2.2, "home_run_delta": -0.0635, "away_run_delta": 0.0635, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -6.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -10.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.9845, "recent_quality_edge": -1.304, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -1.0963 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.015994218656248508 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.01588013305600087 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.015528817648898347 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.01541805172024083 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.015027899452593833 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.06433843033623264, "1": 0.09456884162445255, "2": 0.12346428748350588, "3": 0.14316943673155677, "4": 0.14746024634650184, "5": 0.134901031588968, "6": 0.10961532181999464, "7": 0.07911210360178365, "8": 0.05071428172265698, "9": 0.028875751917359013, "10": 0.014603333450518294, "11": 0.006559736263846264, "12": 0.00261719711262357 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.026320551214493636, "1": 0.0396486066546728, "2": 0.05571693773903036, "3": 0.07304204236234586, "4": 0.0893274501038506, "5": 0.10191153090359892, "6": 0.10846461370114166, "7": 0.10769094348781812, "8": 0.09974626663402815, "9": 0.08618674460504351, "10": 0.06947213797931326, "11": 0.052240486325978316, "12": 0.03664629876953908, "13": 0.02398166789353912, "14": 0.014640469716201053, "15": 0.008337906035261224, "16": 0.00442981247801881, "17": 0.0021955333961254345 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "CLE 6 - 4 KC", "winner": "CLE" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "CLE 6 - 4 KC", "winner": "CLE" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.028, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.374, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "CLE", "model_winner": "CLE", "simulation_winner": "CLE", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "CLE", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "CLE", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 1.0963, "winner": "CLE", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260927	20260927_COL@CHW	CHW	56.0%	82.9%	55.3%	50.0%	5.0-8.0	2-4	hit	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.828766, "sample_size": 237, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5527, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.690733, "published_confidence": 0.56, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 2, "sample_weight": 0.03, "home_net_margin": 2.0, "absolute_net_margin": 2.0, "home_average_margin": 1.0, "home_run_delta": 0.015, "away_run_delta": -0.015, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.7484, "recent_quality_edge": 1.02, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 1.4935 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 8, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.012052786961368137 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.011881290921668447 }, { "home_runs": 8, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.011685786289297876 }, { "home_runs": 9, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.011545299616244726 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.01151951220880388 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.017506366809694727, "1": 0.026531556705292395, "2": 0.03796848935084617, "3": 0.051307137036693505, "4": 0.06546755505919616, "5": 0.07888026122646896, "6": 0.08974379603672693, "7": 0.09641273623220155, "8": 0.09780436972972653, "9": 0.09368627819664817, "10": 0.08473983059719581, "11": 0.07237574946083943, "12": 0.058370368329261756, "13": 0.044451423277575286, "14": 0.03196485846250995, "15": 0.021704699519814918, "16": 0.01391645588783234, "17": 0.00842553319950353, "18": 0.0048168155751858776, "19": 0.00260025847286118, "20": 0.0013254608339247555 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.03933990899929951, "1": 0.058760434919097854, "2": 0.080500840340172, "3": 0.10115319109052733, "4": 0.11657959008198729, "5": 0.12323362437358286, "6": 0.11948122892249581, "7": 0.10625121426962149, "8": 0.08666263402549892, "9": 0.06483262849433548, "10": 0.044485567562328326, "11": 0.027996800585158278, "12": 0.016160747090853536, "13": 0.008556146763141788, "14": 0.0041548828089952115, "15": 0.0018505596729044035 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 8, "score_text": "COL 5 - 8 CHW", "winner": "CHW" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 8, "score_text": "COL 5 - 8 CHW", "winner": "CHW" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0479, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 1.02, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 8, "winner": "CHW", "model_winner": "CHW", "simulation_winner": "CHW", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "CHW", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "CHW", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 3, "simulation_margin": 3, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 8 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 8 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 3, "final_margin": 3, "winner_quality_edge": 1.4935, "winner": "CHW", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 8, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260927	20260927_HOU@OAK	HOU	56.0%	73.5%	54.6%	50.0%	8.0-6.0	9-0	hit	Variance Applied (0.4932)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.734518, "sample_size": 229, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5459, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.640209, "published_confidence": 0.56, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -10.0, "absolute_net_margin": 10.0, "home_average_margin": -2.0, "home_run_delta": -0.0577, "away_run_delta": 0.0577, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -11.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.3168, "recent_quality_edge": -0.56, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -1.0519 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 8, "probability": 0.01153269520089576 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.011495033184392293 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 8, "probability": 0.011446102783123939 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.011408723549180004 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 9, "probability": 0.010909499857883686 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.033903175156965636, "1": 0.05081716729473839, "2": 0.07035276169147696, "3": 0.08996062558215581, "4": 0.1062488901232442, "5": 0.11590360816678932, "6": 0.11678044579875936, "7": 0.1086785712319119, "8": 0.09341536829813102, "9": 0.07416403654926597, "10": 0.054383731974466575, "11": 0.03683369377561705, "12": 0.02304210536659606, "13": 0.013313727446468231, "14": 0.007105224170083437, "15": 0.0035023256573156105, "16": 0.0015945417160147626 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.018530723809302325, "1": 0.028063308721195487, "2": 0.04007179589938139, "3": 0.053950090982407835, "4": 0.06848555793308164, "5": 0.08197081572828964, "6": 0.09250665082755395, "7": 0.09843285924940709, "8": 0.0987553620129979, "9": 0.09341889203508748, "10": 0.08332247870320383, "11": 0.07007177064534462, "12": 0.05556194556819272, "13": 0.04153988018290249, "14": 0.02928238702430968, "15": 0.019462613365843408, "16": 0.012196894748438264, "17": 0.007206938881462074, "18": 0.004015187622928967, "19": 0.0021091831388140286, "20": 0.0010446629198551751 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "HOU 8 - 6 OAK", "winner": "HOU" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "HOU 8 - 6 OAK", "winner": "HOU" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0633, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.49, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "HOU", "model_winner": "HOU", "simulation_winner": "HOU", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "HOU", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 1.0519, "winner": "HOU", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260927	20260927_LAA@SEA	SEA	56.0%	56.4%	55.2%	50.0%	3.0-5.0	3-7	hit	Embedded Savant Run Environment (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5636, "sample_size": 279, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.552, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5578, "published_confidence": 0.56, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 4.0, "absolute_net_margin": 4.0, "home_average_margin": 0.8, "home_run_delta": 0.0231, "away_run_delta": -0.0231, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.3137, "recent_quality_edge": 0.32, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.3159 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.018247406535588213 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.017925988138853925 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01744690816043522 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01713959011839124 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.017118316654488614 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04590000506874616, "1": 0.068272125287155, "2": 0.09236255751903003, "3": 0.11365022924547595, "4": 0.12719396937429897, "5": 0.12947459576955728, "6": 0.11987384768291737, "7": 0.10094531454014366, "8": 0.07731606176164099, "9": 0.05386108794931847, "10": 0.03412733356391707, "11": 0.01966760292514507, "12": 0.010309137791734327, "13": 0.004914904637845052, "14": 0.002131226883074605 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.05684858055351045, "1": 0.0839707461994676, "2": 0.11125348772716633, "3": 0.13221370997717807, "4": 0.1409342614829668, "5": 0.13475159398441178, "6": 0.11556557202165559, "7": 0.08889969487514558, "8": 0.06134078117590277, "9": 0.03796431511082255, "10": 0.021075557494002715, "11": 0.010494453038373087, "12": 0.004687246359396607 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "LAA 3 - 5 SEA", "winner": "SEA" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "LAA 3 - 5 SEA", "winner": "SEA" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0969, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.25, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "SEA", "model_winner": "SEA", "simulation_winner": "SEA", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "SEA", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "SEA", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.3159, "winner": "SEA", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260927	20260927_LAD@SF	LAD	58.0%	58.6%	56.7%	50.0%	6.0-3.0	5-1	hit	Enhanced Prediction (-3.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5864, "sample_size": 127, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5669, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.57665, "published_confidence": 0.58, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -17.0, "absolute_net_margin": 17.0, "home_average_margin": -3.4, "home_run_delta": -0.0981, "away_run_delta": 0.0981, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -6.0 }, { "home_margin": -6.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -2.0807, "recent_quality_edge": -0.796, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -1.6311 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01954828371386825 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.0195423111003728 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.019090962987667506 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.0190851300999905 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.017749180116119846 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.065610509578725, "1": 0.09635796359256105, "2": 0.12548467223928364, "3": 0.14490474712942605, "4": 0.14837591535860192, "5": 0.1347203102401079, "6": 0.10846549498506376, "7": 0.07743530190665761, "8": 0.04902021983315085, "9": 0.02751695529828516, "10": 0.013696650290467018, "11": 0.006045291142782789, "12": 0.002365968404887225 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04909625105871393, "1": 0.07287972313166184, "2": 0.09800366647045199, "3": 0.11938648332391494, "4": 0.13174836136055526, "5": 0.13170810810596867, "6": 0.1192770878145432, "7": 0.09785404196618301, "8": 0.07272399664688074, "9": 0.04896141193856422, "10": 0.029861206804832698, "11": 0.01649825468629886, "12": 0.008257448589865346, "13": 0.0037439581015650874 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "LAD 6 - 3 SF", "winner": "LAD" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "LAD 6 - 3 SF", "winner": "LAD" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0029, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.146, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "LAD", "model_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "LAD", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "LAD", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 3, "simulation_margin": 3, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 3, "final_margin": 3, "winner_quality_edge": 1.6311, "winner": "LAD", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260927	20260927_NYM@WAS	NYM	53.1%	56.0%	55.9%	50.0%	7.0-5.0	4-6	miss	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.56, "sample_size": 288, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.559, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5595, "published_confidence": 0.530557, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -10.0, "absolute_net_margin": 10.0, "home_average_margin": -2.0, "home_run_delta": -0.0577, "away_run_delta": 0.0577, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -6.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.2298, "recent_quality_edge": 0.016, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.155 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.013187941527658646 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.013020450624384243 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.01298919568586277 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.012824228915751577 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01245026690992325 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.03712819006872227, "1": 0.0555362784218213, "2": 0.0764110590258, "3": 0.09670348255720367, "4": 0.11257305717308697, "5": 0.12054057445467453, "6": 0.11872399543130621, "7": 0.10755985314699823, "8": 0.08963308577527465, "9": 0.06870572801326073, "10": 0.04844221512111135, "11": 0.031416767094587114, "12": 0.018741547212036948, "13": 0.010283852536119204, "14": 0.0051905417673481485, "15": 0.002409772200648926 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.02696580672141111, "1": 0.04060303642002135, "2": 0.056984174216249926, "3": 0.07454193404464202, "4": 0.09088614969293639, "5": 0.10328693857855123, "6": 0.10940665902183462, "7": 0.10801716088784837, "8": 0.09940137943681555, "9": 0.08525948708916206, "10": 0.06816221127680468, "11": 0.05079199574439139, "12": 0.03527747846190145, "13": 0.02283759906314, "14": 0.013780151877852548, "15": 0.007750116221150925, "16": 0.004062684315545234, "17": 0.001985036929741095 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "NYM 7 - 5 WAS", "winner": "NYM" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "NYM 7 - 5 WAS", "winner": "NYM" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0594, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.194, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "NYM", "model_winner": "NYM", "simulation_winner": "NYM", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "NYM", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": -0.155, "winner": "NYM", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260927	20260927_PIT@DET	PIT	50.5%	51.0%	55.3%	50.0%	4.0-3.0	4-2	hit	Variance Applied (0.0329)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 682, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5528, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.53145, "published_confidence": 0.505, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 1.0, "absolute_net_margin": 1.0, "home_average_margin": 0.2, "home_run_delta": 0.0058, "away_run_delta": -0.0058, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.2453, "recent_quality_edge": -0.352, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.0363 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02405097026405226 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.023897852347280348 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.023578437334532815 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02342832774786068 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.021485205496562555 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.07506615141461212, "1": 0.10956165506017164, "2": 0.1400433031503364, "3": 0.15676728436631782, "4": 0.1536872546078035, "5": 0.13195006179445723, "6": 0.0992134772547187, "7": 0.06533126572112263, "8": 0.03767565412301166, "9": 0.019027856091062837, "10": 0.008416048759775268, "11": 0.0032599876566103037 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.07220251971798768, "1": 0.10558485403911724, "2": 0.135740640673266, "3": 0.15341830000609313, "4": 0.15244157889115614, "5": 0.13316457614879956, "6": 0.10226640389069623, "7": 0.06904563988882323, "8": 0.040982508134210394, "9": 0.02138551973061804, "10": 0.009810702031827814, "11": 0.003956756847404638 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "PIT 4 - 3 DET", "winner": "PIT" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "PIT 4 - 3 DET", "winner": "PIT" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0057, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.282, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "PIT", "model_winner": "PIT", "simulation_winner": "PIT", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "PIT", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "PIT", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.0363, "winner": "PIT", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260927	20260927_STL@MIL	MIL	58.0%	69.5%	59.4%	16.0%	2.0-5.0	4-6	hit	Embedded Savant Run Environment (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.695017, "sample_size": 32, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5938, "empirical_weight": 0.16, "blended_confidence": 0.678822, "published_confidence": 0.58, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 13.0, "absolute_net_margin": 13.0, "home_average_margin": 2.6, "home_run_delta": 0.075, "away_run_delta": -0.075, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": 8.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.7174, "recent_quality_edge": 1.056, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 1.4859 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.021347785654581994 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.020843473060130405 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02010840621502644 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.019913590724914908 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.019633372285387474 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04484175309924769, "1": 0.06674355737295948, "2": 0.09047948355326808, "3": 0.1117132973752181, "4": 0.12562429103984565, "5": 0.12866379947290185, "6": 0.12001985991769407, "7": 0.10196798898667615, "8": 0.07890210470861884, "9": 0.05560672494227559, "10": 0.03569275259229313, "11": 0.020866363141362285, "12": 0.01111034323754492, "13": 0.005387932993979631, "14": 0.0023797475661146103 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.08363770210059782, "1": 0.12137713124659834, "2": 0.15251117197511788, "3": 0.16591912987209814, "4": 0.15628643252728996, "5": 0.12746064374460656, "6": 0.09000382169227758, "7": 0.0550269962839143, "8": 0.02912867142380787, "9": 0.01335043939656316, "10": 0.005297859737128257 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "STL 2 - 5 MIL", "winner": "MIL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "STL 2 - 5 MIL", "winner": "MIL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.101, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 1.266, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "MIL", "model_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 1, "published_winner": "MIL", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "MIL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 3, "simulation_margin": 3, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 3, "final_margin": 3, "winner_quality_edge": 1.4859, "winner": "MIL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260927	20260927_TB@PHI	TB	57.6%	67.2%	54.1%	50.0%	4.0-3.0	3-7	miss	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.6725, "sample_size": 543, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5414, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.60695, "published_confidence": 0.57564, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 2, "sample_weight": 0.03, "home_net_margin": -13.0, "absolute_net_margin": 13.0, "home_average_margin": -6.5, "home_run_delta": -0.0975, "away_run_delta": 0.0975, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -11.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.5932, "recent_quality_edge": -0.7, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.6306 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.025365239235151067 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.024943204634170997 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02428334636890916 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02387931263202009 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02377219844662334 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.10279845946480115, "1": 0.14718371643031197, "2": 0.17759866649108444, "3": 0.1806036044469907, "4": 0.15478180397782057, "5": 0.1117944315011993, "6": 0.06804985700057954, "7": 0.034909291875046045, "8": 0.015092515799099947, "9": 0.005499067065495297, "10": 0.001688585947571054 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.05652412162212097, "1": 0.08350328674181175, "2": 0.11068105080159191, "3": 0.13162637877252756, "4": 0.14044702658520897, "5": 0.13445659871111051, "6": 0.11549193257951397, "7": 0.08900637883446061, "8": 0.06154468768748724, "9": 0.03818211382074279, "10": 0.02125344422791468, "11": 0.010614477663414796, "12": 0.0047562852330908624, "13": 0.0019122167190034605 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "TB 4 - 3 PHI", "winner": "TB" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "TB 4 - 3 PHI", "winner": "TB" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0024, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.05, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "TB", "model_winner": "TB", "simulation_winner": "TB", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 4, "published_winner": "TB", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.25, "draw_majority_team": "PHI", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.6306, "winner": "TB", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260927	20260927_TEX@MIN	TEX	51.2%	51.0%	55.4%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	4-6	miss	Variance Applied (0.7068)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 719, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5535, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5318, "published_confidence": 0.51197, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 22.0, "absolute_net_margin": 22.0, "home_average_margin": 4.4, "home_run_delta": 0.1269, "away_run_delta": -0.1269, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": 8.0 }, { "home_margin": 6.0 }, { "home_margin": 10.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.1366, "recent_quality_edge": 0.312, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.0204 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.017305208362976606 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.017254490991820273 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.017187014283191113 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.017136643310233936 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.01580961764210208 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04954747097090136, "1": 0.07352804000045376, "2": 0.09878885283227842, "3": 0.12016731312555859, "4": 0.13233911150658376, "5": 0.13195125764802296, "6": 0.11911386277097818, "7": 0.09734968239830077, "8": 0.07203278807029473, "9": 0.04825578289246845, "10": 0.029267926962995402, "11": 0.01607155928781765, "12": 0.00799001367003404, "13": 0.0035963378633118884 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04778460859044301, "1": 0.07098913301435167, "2": 0.09568940415891473, "3": 0.11703182226831609, "4": 0.1298710115817581, "5": 0.13076412684027797, "6": 0.11946292718850215, "7": 0.09902522201076205, "8": 0.07447776516448563, "9": 0.050824789309959, "10": 0.031469705338159994, "11": 0.017679822678661517, "12": 0.009012209362334657, "13": 0.004168240591089288, "14": 0.0017492119019839165 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TEX 5 - 4 MIN", "winner": "TEX" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TEX 5 - 4 MIN", "winner": "TEX" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0281, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.522, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "TEX", "model_winner": "TEX", "simulation_winner": "TEX", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "TEX", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "TEX", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.0204, "winner": "TEX", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260929	20260929_BOS@NYY	NYY	54.0%	46.0%	57.5%	50.0%	2.0-4.0	0-9	hit	Embedded Savant Run Environment (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.4601, "sample_size": 454, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5749, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5175, "published_confidence": 0.54, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 16.0, "absolute_net_margin": 16.0, "home_average_margin": 3.2, "home_run_delta": 0.0923, "away_run_delta": -0.0923, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 15.0 }, { "home_margin": 7.0 }, { "home_margin": -6.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.4366, "recent_quality_edge": 0.16, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.3398 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02977999552619565 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.028299020330958595 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.027920813842935526 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.027284242285591977 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.026775108419609717 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.08934411812353953, "1": 0.12914603979535405, "2": 0.1603566349998798, "3": 0.17103440822877292, "4": 0.1567006358070743, "5": 0.1233243235615736, "6": 0.08337146626985006, "7": 0.04841465609872311, "8": 0.024150547298842237, "9": 0.01034827156487325, "10": 0.0038088982515172886 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.09318405526785921, "1": 0.13433465606203532, "2": 0.16545805387361748, "3": 0.17411698519962368, "4": 0.15654808115449936, "5": 0.12025627343088624, "6": 0.07892618611896245, "7": 0.04425760169079799, "8": 0.02120352259904954, "9": 0.00867923688573888, "10": 0.0030353477169295655 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "BOS 2 - 4 NYY", "winner": "NYY" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "BOS 2 - 4 NYY", "winner": "NYY" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0121, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.23, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "NYY", "model_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "NYY", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.3398, "winner": "NYY", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260929	20260929_CHC@SD	SD	50.8%	53.7%	55.9%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	0-8	hit	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.536952, "sample_size": 684, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5585, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.547726, "published_confidence": 0.507896, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -29.0, "absolute_net_margin": 29.0, "home_average_margin": -5.8, "home_run_delta": -0.1673, "away_run_delta": 0.1673, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -20.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.6358, "recent_quality_edge": 0.508, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.2355 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020697963498079945 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.019795431783525982 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.019598053542315363 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.019555521853491395 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01930518335574106 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.058873711031276345, "1": 0.0868469837619334, "2": 0.11460806602509555, "3": 0.13530154149529186, "4": 0.1428951278787376, "5": 0.13500791013808305, "6": 0.11411116103411154, "7": 0.08628278408152955, "8": 0.058364301487223796, "9": 0.03531811779360204, "10": 0.019119429332457458, "11": 0.009259326890734294, "12": 0.0040115390499236535 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.06106068951282485, "1": 0.08994423081620752, "2": 0.11818669732999297, "3": 0.13853118771358397, "4": 0.14484723031036068, "5": 0.13510036095928796, "6": 0.11240522518166372, "7": 0.08342575911423988, "8": 0.05523285731149256, "9": 0.03261959247231663, "10": 0.017184750362256623, "11": 0.008075912426132209, "12": 0.003385506489640405 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CHC 4 - 5 SD", "winner": "SD" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CHC 4 - 5 SD", "winner": "SD" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0325, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.158, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "SD", "model_winner": "SD", "simulation_winner": "SD", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "SD", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "SD", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.2355, "winner": "SD", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260929	20260929_CHW@HOU	CHW	53.0%	56.6%	58.2%	50.0%	6.0-5.0	6-3	hit	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.565874, "sample_size": 433, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.582, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.573937, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -4.0, "absolute_net_margin": 4.0, "home_average_margin": -0.8, "home_run_delta": -0.0231, "away_run_delta": 0.0231, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": -9.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.571, "recent_quality_edge": -0.224, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.4495 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.015765283988507267 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01514873228710994 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.015144035882937935 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.015027712817668066 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.014996300579097408 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04208965680009246, "1": 0.06275864662721392, "2": 0.08553199172880491, "3": 0.10654680512475424, "4": 0.12131349328703141, "5": 0.12625093882841287, "6": 0.12009279556551684, "7": 0.10441337252033131, "8": 0.08297592894220364, "9": 0.06027052207513303, "10": 0.04001424384047176, "11": 0.02428181275969323, "12": 0.013468040946391736, "13": 0.006827859579893872, "14": 0.0031638913740547527 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04071288035910323, "1": 0.06075990118465728, "2": 0.08302965036865727, "3": 0.10389156292371118, "4": 0.11903050351247026, "5": 0.12487260795687072, "6": 0.11995186747498275, "7": 0.10550614759663551, "8": 0.08497270389632763, "9": 0.06266312232817885, "10": 0.042313168147418374, "11": 0.0261619419229694, "12": 0.01481137340672792, "13": 0.007678061830258213, "14": 0.0036445070910315898 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CHW 6 - 5 HOU", "winner": "CHW" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CHW 6 - 5 HOU", "winner": "CHW" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.002, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.154, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "CHW", "model_winner": "CHW", "simulation_winner": "CHW", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "CHW", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "CHW", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.4495, "winner": "CHW", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260929	20260929_PHI@ATL	ATL	50.5%	51.0%	54.3%	50.0%	2.0-3.0	3-5	hit	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 586, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5427, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5264, "published_confidence": 0.505394, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 6.0, "absolute_net_margin": 6.0, "home_average_margin": 1.2, "home_run_delta": 0.0346, "away_run_delta": -0.0346, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": 10.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.679, "recent_quality_edge": 0.336, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.559 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.03663447650385173 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.03605874295736209 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03534856298176649 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.034793038364766285 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 1, "probability": 0.031332353530374016 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.11184538300327683, "1": 0.1590955364660151, "2": 0.18825141918458108, "3": 0.18529293123710208, "4": 0.15171194410611147, "5": 0.10332871411405359, "6": 0.05854133272542454, "7": 0.02758954350536477, "8": 0.010816001865673063, "9": 0.003527193792397572 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.11747422505407185, "1": 0.1664388702411457, "2": 0.19460398578951227, "3": 0.18777315536254796, "4": 0.1495202721637699, "5": 0.09825427488601585, "6": 0.05328287281387508, "7": 0.023845619578403726, "8": 0.008806724110657731 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "PHI 2 - 3 ATL", "winner": "ATL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "PHI 2 - 3 ATL", "winner": "ATL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0494, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.406, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "ATL", "model_winner": "ATL", "simulation_winner": "ATL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "ATL", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "ATL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.559, "winner": "ATL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260930	20260930_BOS@NYY	NYY	54.0%	46.0%	56.1%	50.0%	3.0-4.0	2-9	hit	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.4601, "sample_size": 403, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5608, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.51045, "published_confidence": 0.54, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 16.0, "absolute_net_margin": 16.0, "home_average_margin": 3.2, "home_run_delta": 0.0923, "away_run_delta": -0.0923, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 15.0 }, { "home_margin": 7.0 }, { "home_margin": -6.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.4366, "recent_quality_edge": 0.16, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.3398 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03065281984794564 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.029476179229875103 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.029058715983651007 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.027943266713242994 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02765248353910017 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.09250250412863065, "1": 0.1334160590446711, "2": 0.16456308616204227, "3": 0.1735906926026969, "4": 0.1565994187010754, "5": 0.12081574949287402, "6": 0.07971254155017439, "7": 0.04497792929882791, "8": 0.021704108690770964, "9": 0.008956826278405286, "10": 0.0031610840498310757 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.09654318751914773, "1": 0.13884725501108944, "2": 0.1698027629703527, "3": 0.1765810101242111, "4": 0.15614749837995817, "5": 0.11741345144778333, "6": 0.07507450340987268, "7": 0.04081867202977053, "8": 0.018871962489918733, "9": 0.007419370306509241, "10": 0.0024803263113864073 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "BOS 3 - 4 NYY", "winner": "NYY" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "BOS 3 - 4 NYY", "winner": "NYY" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0537, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.23, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "NYY", "model_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "NYY", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "NYY", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.3398, "winner": "NYY", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260930	20260930_CHC@SD	SD	51.5%	53.9%	56.1%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	1-4	hit	Variance Applied (0.3366)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.538882, "sample_size": 811, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.561, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.549941, "published_confidence": 0.515245, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -29.0, "absolute_net_margin": 29.0, "home_average_margin": -5.8, "home_run_delta": -0.1673, "away_run_delta": 0.1673, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -20.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.6358, "recent_quality_edge": 0.508, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.2355 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.021100676535647546 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02033424987658989 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02012387330860744 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.019752135345300695 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01948978370477639 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.060446866490935364, "1": 0.08907585420526569, "2": 0.1171869001932523, "3": 0.13763567105359828, "4": 0.1443164409818944, "5": 0.13509319807877898, "6": 0.11289742150695818, "7": 0.08423012216642811, "8": 0.05610269261390618, "9": 0.03336052277858291, "10": 0.017709848957529715, "11": 0.008393241786550515, "12": 0.0035512191863194043 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.06271366287780988, "1": 0.09227905630828238, "2": 0.12086109858609505, "3": 0.14090043891216095, "4": 0.14621117588601557, "5": 0.13504894918536367, "6": 0.11103100329387691, "7": 0.08125306168760116, "8": 0.05292704172094123, "9": 0.03068724649157306, "10": 0.015837281588268047, "11": 0.007275213971479352, "12": 0.0029747694905326856 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CHC 4 - 5 SD", "winner": "SD" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CHC 4 - 5 SD", "winner": "SD" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0243, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.158, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "SD", "model_winner": "SD", "simulation_winner": "SD", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "SD", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "SD", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.2355, "winner": "SD", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260930	20260930_CHW@HOU	CHW	50.5%	50.7%	54.5%	50.0%	6.0-5.0	7-3	hit	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.506891, "sample_size": 554, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5451, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.525995, "published_confidence": 0.505, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -4.0, "absolute_net_margin": 4.0, "home_average_margin": -0.8, "home_run_delta": -0.0231, "away_run_delta": 0.0231, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": -9.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.571, "recent_quality_edge": -0.224, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.4495 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.015845989915558672 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01523535165003909 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.015164438291892318 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.015151179922761451 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.015062103526447183 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.042191997122750347, "1": 0.06290708089214903, "2": 0.08571727251404254, "3": 0.10674228977326668, "4": 0.12147979396985664, "5": 0.12634874694116788, "6": 0.12009839189637349, "7": 0.10432846221869552, "8": 0.08282620831877346, "9": 0.06009413873837548, "10": 0.039847016612186675, "11": 0.02414676008131672, "12": 0.013372767187312349, "13": 0.0067683539384524646, "14": 0.0031307197952807984 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04124052363175769, "1": 0.0615263224587683, "2": 0.08399081143444878, "3": 0.10491476930878556, "4": 0.11991555349430048, "5": 0.12541469780414272, "6": 0.12002048820439334, "7": 0.1050984655433629, "8": 0.08421149839115973, "9": 0.061741965086781196, "10": 0.041421281788251156, "11": 0.025427323806505666, "12": 0.01428274907871888, "13": 0.00734102989586382, "14": 0.0034525200727598734 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CHW 6 - 5 HOU", "winner": "CHW" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CHW 6 - 5 HOU", "winner": "CHW" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0304, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.154, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "CHW", "model_winner": "CHW", "simulation_winner": "CHW", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 5, "published_winner": "CHW", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6, "draw_majority_team": "CHW", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.4495, "winner": "CHW", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260930	20260930_PHI@ATL	ATL	51.3%	51.0%	55.6%	50.0%	3.0-4.0	4-3	miss	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 738, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5556, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.53285, "published_confidence": 0.512824, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 6.0, "absolute_net_margin": 6.0, "home_average_margin": 1.2, "home_run_delta": 0.0346, "away_run_delta": -0.0346, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": 10.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.679, "recent_quality_edge": 0.336, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.559 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.031964266078845685 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.03135329346444452 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.030865882858655044 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.030275905003401455 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.028100708915149417 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.09771851485081708, "1": 0.1404202947605232, "2": 0.17129686247484727, "3": 0.17739257664169208, "4": 0.15595093432211035, "5": 0.11638768383622267, "6": 0.07373820743756168, "7": 0.03965926228174976, "8": 0.018107695912543312, "9": 0.007018563918190915, "10": 0.00230940356374175 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.10209835528351599, "1": 0.14625505172570633, "2": 0.17674523961492336, "3": 0.1801894232778916, "4": 0.154972837542889, "5": 0.11244149072978717, "6": 0.06882438265756163, "7": 0.03553880122263182, "8": 0.015481318447663437, "9": 0.005689286885495802, "10": 0.0017638126119337773 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "PHI 3 - 4 ATL", "winner": "ATL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "PHI 3 - 4 ATL", "winner": "ATL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0987, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.406, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "ATL", "model_winner": "ATL", "simulation_winner": "ATL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "ATL", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.559, "winner": "ATL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20261001	20261001_BOS@NYY	NYY	52.2%	46.0%	55.8%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	Official result pending	void_not_on_official_schedule	Variance Applied (0.0332)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.4601, "sample_size": 849, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5583, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5092, "published_confidence": 0.522098, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 16.0, "absolute_net_margin": 16.0, "home_average_margin": 3.2, "home_run_delta": 0.0923, "away_run_delta": -0.0923, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 15.0 }, { "home_margin": 7.0 }, { "home_margin": -6.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.4366, "recent_quality_edge": 0.16, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.3398 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02192705528855855 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.021497317924182312 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02125609487615258 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.020839507328540778 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020099482484694616 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.06400196078760864, "1": 0.09409507984938685, "2": 0.12292728304630708, "3": 0.14270440616741564, "4": 0.14720894981817154, "5": 0.13493940109707891, "6": 0.10991350928819259, "7": 0.07955566346988724, "8": 0.0511680494574492, "9": 0.02924383694412032, "10": 0.014851748204982694, "11": 0.006702372074897228, "12": 0.0026877397945020655 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.0664518367314008, "1": 0.09753949683098238, "2": 0.12681234573151276, "3": 0.14603268314008905, "4": 0.14895191709228445, "5": 0.13457042784492354, "6": 0.1076863539335252, "7": 0.07632717979732238, "8": 0.04791872596987443, "9": 0.02664641658241465, "10": 0.013124412363890675, "11": 0.005725697833529436, "12": 0.002212506148250346 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "BOS 4 - 5 NYY", "winner": "NYY" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "BOS 4 - 5 NYY", "winner": "NYY" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0957, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.23, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "NYY", "model_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 5, "published_winner": "NYY", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.4, "draw_majority_team": "BOS", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.3398, "winner": "NYY", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20261001	20261001_CHC@SD	SD	53.4%	60.4%	56.8%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	Official result pending	void_not_on_official_schedule	Variance Applied (0.3366)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.603682, "sample_size": 703, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5676, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.585641, "published_confidence": 0.533872, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -29.0, "absolute_net_margin": 29.0, "home_average_margin": -5.8, "home_run_delta": -0.1673, "away_run_delta": 0.1673, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -20.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.6358, "recent_quality_edge": 0.508, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.2355 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.018430496987734413 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01807565835594419 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.017447214654999734 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.017424622813198228 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.017111306959138328 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.045612051211798885, "1": 0.0678564029953871, "2": 0.0918512325004045, "3": 0.11312590455576738, "4": 0.12677162702080358, "5": 0.12926024844725856, "6": 0.11991978223620607, "7": 0.1012277534902831, "8": 0.0777483693575957, "9": 0.05433327736426581, "10": 0.034548041943714324, "11": 0.01998774944861285, "12": 0.010521733030774014, "13": 0.005039571164586615, "14": 0.0021962552325416 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.05854230285111486, "1": 0.08637683177990815, "2": 0.11406177778722087, "3": 0.13480264058372063, "4": 0.142584415619892, "5": 0.13497741853806383, "6": 0.11435774243227188, "7": 0.08671324243227696, "8": 0.058846505211311656, "9": 0.03574138053412007, "10": 0.019428414846662016, "11": 0.009451893300776294, "12": 0.004115434082660816 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CHC 4 - 5 SD", "winner": "SD" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CHC 4 - 5 SD", "winner": "SD" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0243, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.158, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "SD", "model_winner": "SD", "simulation_winner": "SD", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "SD", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "SD", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.2355, "winner": "SD", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20261001	20261001_CHW@HOU	CHW	50.5%	50.7%	54.4%	50.0%	6.0-5.0	Official result pending	void_not_on_official_schedule	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.50684, "sample_size": 555, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5441, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.52547, "published_confidence": 0.505, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -4.0, "absolute_net_margin": 4.0, "home_average_margin": -0.8, "home_run_delta": -0.0231, "away_run_delta": 0.0231, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": -9.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.571, "recent_quality_edge": -0.224, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.4495 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.015845151267015013 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.015233923257798303 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.015163635714448015 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.015150378047015939 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.015062058051124287 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04218497899286698, "1": 0.06289690242152335, "2": 0.08570456983748728, "3": 0.10672889246812813, "4": 0.12146840461704717, "5": 0.1263420599375045, "6": 0.12009802929674447, "7": 0.10433430081333758, "8": 0.08283648083522833, "9": 0.06010622768201131, "10": 0.03985846829142999, "11": 0.02415600105594041, "12": 0.013379281024094032, "13": 0.006772418905157931, "14": 0.0031329838214984892 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04124052363175769, "1": 0.0615263224587683, "2": 0.08399081143444878, "3": 0.10491476930878556, "4": 0.11991555349430048, "5": 0.12541469780414272, "6": 0.12002048820439334, "7": 0.1050984655433629, "8": 0.08421149839115973, "9": 0.061741965086781196, "10": 0.041421281788251156, "11": 0.025427323806505666, "12": 0.01428274907871888, "13": 0.00734102989586382, "14": 0.0034525200727598734 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CHW 6 - 5 HOU", "winner": "CHW" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CHW 6 - 5 HOU", "winner": "CHW" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0303, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.154, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "CHW", "model_winner": "CHW", "simulation_winner": "CHW", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "CHW", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "CHW", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.4495, "winner": "CHW", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20261001	20261001_PHI@ATL	ATL	51.7%	51.0%	56.2%	50.0%	3.0-4.0	2-6	hit	Variance Applied (0.3506)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 815, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.562, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.53605, "published_confidence": 0.516818, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 6.0, "absolute_net_margin": 6.0, "home_average_margin": 1.2, "home_run_delta": 0.0346, "away_run_delta": -0.0346, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": 10.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.679, "recent_quality_edge": 0.336, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.559 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02740861565572562 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.026070550743917793 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.0256506964568365 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.025310539900245163 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.025018712063658185 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.08161421444373858, "1": 0.11860583380580444, "2": 0.14965362810803134, "3": 0.1639492378289185, "4": 0.1559453778305867, "5": 0.1287883457152115, "6": 0.09234674142840939, "7": 0.057492016163692754, "8": 0.031076668526830494, "9": 0.014584862021725622, "10": 0.005943074127050757 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.08497667427160799, "1": 0.1232062343953657, "2": 0.15438034501055006, "3": 0.1671774508907848, "4": 0.15645511254894076, "5": 0.126540104449236, "6": 0.08844901211530055, "7": 0.053429874426288125, "8": 0.027893415048936672, "9": 0.012584779004367486, "10": 0.0049069978386219164 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "PHI 3 - 4 ATL", "winner": "ATL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "PHI 3 - 4 ATL", "winner": "ATL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.05, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.406, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "ATL", "model_winner": "ATL", "simulation_winner": "ATL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "ATL", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "ATL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.559, "winner": "ATL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20261003	20261003_ATL@LAD	LAD	54.7%	59.8%	58.2%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	3-5	hit	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.597692, "sample_size": 459, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5817, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.589696, "published_confidence": 0.546692, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -13.0, "absolute_net_margin": 13.0, "home_average_margin": -2.6, "home_run_delta": -0.075, "away_run_delta": 0.075, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.5802, "recent_quality_edge": 0.664, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.6096 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020286602876242513 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.019844809488443825 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.019833664882420794 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.01940173539406224 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.018704375468971954 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.052919983399183614, "1": 0.07836158878234728, "2": 0.10459581148303007, "3": 0.12584990209090946, "4": 0.13649570871625613, "5": 0.13344817567938594, "6": 0.11760717330278227, "7": 0.09342917414207082, "8": 0.06690502473180449, "9": 0.04318793992986577, "10": 0.025130074098572937, "11": 0.013181127990904703, "12": 0.0062321645628381364, "13": 0.002656151090048298 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.06596937904702013, "1": 0.0968621198279498, "2": 0.12605182833747278, "3": 0.1453877903934454, "4": 0.14862447374381416, "5": 0.13465929312730648, "6": 0.10813491363944308, "7": 0.07696249740114328, "8": 0.04854851753850212, "9": 0.02714290963653067, "10": 0.013449942744312465, "11": 0.005907015046905457, "12": 0.0022993195161541756 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "ATL 4 - 5 LAD", "winner": "LAD" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "ATL 4 - 5 LAD", "winner": "LAD" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0282, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.314, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "LAD", "model_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 4, "published_winner": "LAD", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.6096, "winner": "LAD", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20261003	20261003_CHW@CLE	CHW	52.3%	51.0%	56.2%	50.0%	4.0-2.0	3-0	hit	Embedded Savant Run Environment (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 816, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5625, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5363, "published_confidence": 0.522998, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -5.0, "absolute_net_margin": 5.0, "home_average_margin": -1.0, "home_run_delta": -0.0288, "away_run_delta": 0.0288, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.2685, "recent_quality_edge": 0.04, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.1605 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.024123071990349864 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.023947733670324038 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.023626350419972117 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.023454622515970646 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.021564449350636655 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.07527066869262464, "1": 0.10984503663694313, "2": 0.14034756752826408, "3": 0.1569998111291837, "4": 0.15376700592243828, "5": 0.13185511270545647, "6": 0.0989921094020718, "7": 0.06506897582890725, "8": 0.03744701042906975, "9": 0.01886818476210655, "10": 0.00832363211363857, "11": 0.003214884849295648 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.07239621156605851, "1": 0.10585436186611731, "2": 0.136034157903003, "3": 0.15365032490708377, "4": 0.1525335189774158, "5": 0.13308937714838545, "6": 0.1020628736012266, "7": 0.06879208733811652, "8": 0.04075261476169347, "9": 0.021218699733757104, "10": 0.009710203942530603, "11": 0.003905568254611897 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "CHW 4 - 2 CLE", "winner": "CHW" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "CHW 4 - 2 CLE", "winner": "CHW" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0059, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.03, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "winner": "CHW", "model_winner": "CHW", "simulation_winner": "CHW", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "CHW", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "CHW", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.1605, "winner": "CHW", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20261003	20261003_NYY@TB	TB	51.8%	49.0%	56.2%	50.0%	3.0-4.0	0-1	hit	Variance Applied (0.5647)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.490254, "sample_size": 815, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.562, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.526127, "published_confidence": 0.518365, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -14.0, "absolute_net_margin": 14.0, "home_average_margin": -2.8, "home_run_delta": -0.0808, "away_run_delta": 0.0808, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -7.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -8.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.2853, "recent_quality_edge": 0.028, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.1757 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02330248749325166 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.023222854227010863 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.023083427806788986 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.023004543148967774 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.02066254278454156 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.06999058682318827, "1": 0.10249378597138088, "2": 0.1323218909937819, "3": 0.15060594794232982, "4": 0.15112238935098274, "5": 0.13368779528801952, "6": 0.10426318154822485, "7": 0.0716879971844097, "8": 0.043454842844252925, "9": 0.023222350849202135, "10": 0.010940834359288339, "11": 0.004544341558133142, "12": 0.0016640552868057948 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.07285450579554124, "1": 0.1064917431133728, "2": 0.13672721079437586, "3": 0.15419612933151472, "4": 0.15274657782956022, "5": 0.13290735191451863, "6": 0.10157948820433715, "7": 0.06819342994486619, "8": 0.04021226616538831, "9": 0.020828311363539215, "10": 0.009476087743101751, "11": 0.0037868977998838016 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "NYY 3 - 4 TB", "winner": "TB" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "NYY 3 - 4 TB", "winner": "TB" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0269, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.182, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "TB", "model_winner": "TB", "simulation_winner": "TB", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "TB", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "TB", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.1757, "winner": "TB", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20261003	20261003_SD@MIL	MIL	53.0%	55.1%	55.8%	50.0%	4.0-6.0	2-3	hit	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.550696, "sample_size": 285, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5579, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.554298, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -7.0, "absolute_net_margin": 7.0, "home_average_margin": -1.4, "home_run_delta": -0.0404, "away_run_delta": 0.0404, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -9.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 6.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.179, "recent_quality_edge": -0.124, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.723 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.015995938487533404 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01545657949509333 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.015329711421689577 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.015265038729009327 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.015112039256447262 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04163467869456087, "1": 0.062098513857551475, "2": 0.08470706519929076, "3": 0.105674573295292, "4": 0.12056848661537828, "5": 0.12580837579928966, "6": 0.12005983459530394, "7": 0.10478481837500872, "8": 0.0836395000878033, "9": 0.06105720656452228, "10": 0.04076381976334636, "11": 0.024890020459036263, "12": 0.013899144616141106, "13": 0.007098446816851556, "14": 0.0033155152606234553 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04305153530911173, "1": 0.0641529926971978, "2": 0.08726944454139246, "3": 0.10837385371575123, "4": 0.12285811176635984, "5": 0.12714525869925203, "6": 0.12011950047393098, "7": 0.1035962128712133, "8": 0.08156263641812865, "9": 0.058621327049306816, "10": 0.03846245932843129, "11": 0.023037506384625633, "12": 0.012596529304155715, "13": 0.006287577457857363, "14": 0.0028650539832850465 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "SD 4 - 6 MIL", "winner": "MIL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "SD 4 - 6 MIL", "winner": "MIL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.063, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.334, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "MIL", "model_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 1, "published_winner": "MIL", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "MIL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.723, "winner": "MIL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20261004	20261004_ATL@LAD	LAD	51.5%	51.0%	57.7%	50.0%	3.0-4.0	3-2	miss	Variance Applied (-0.1817)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 482, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5768, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.54345, "published_confidence": 0.514946, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -13.0, "absolute_net_margin": 13.0, "home_average_margin": -2.6, "home_run_delta": -0.075, "away_run_delta": 0.075, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.5802, "recent_quality_edge": 0.664, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.6096 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.028222820230211776 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.0265181780356338 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.026307011487808 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.026069515180494638 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02598831593214533 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.0841529373742921, "1": 0.12208141372398842, "2": 0.15323247657232358, "3": 0.1664075752743024, "4": 0.15635665293570739, "5": 0.12711026918853163, "6": 0.08940584509052579, "7": 0.054409180861758805, "8": 0.028648340072565028, "9": 0.013051118710441978, "10": 0.005144190195562751 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.08767011620706518, "1": 0.1268741591486834, "2": 0.15808782409360952, "3": 0.16960057367394443, "4": 0.15666062760377497, "5": 0.12459369260852138, "6": 0.08531706417814217, "7": 0.050301321878038256, "8": 0.025534452110624006, "9": 0.011160337784586449, "10": 0.0041998307130102904 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "ATL 3 - 4 LAD", "winner": "LAD" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "ATL 3 - 4 LAD", "winner": "LAD" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.073, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.314, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "LAD", "model_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "LAD", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333, "draw_majority_team": "ATL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.6096, "winner": "LAD", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20261004	20261004_SD@MIL	MIL	55.4%	57.8%	57.9%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	3-4	hit	Variance Applied (-0.2034)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.578158, "sample_size": 437, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5789, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.578529, "published_confidence": 0.553789, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -7.0, "absolute_net_margin": 7.0, "home_average_margin": -1.4, "home_run_delta": -0.0404, "away_run_delta": 0.0404, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -9.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 6.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.179, "recent_quality_edge": -0.124, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.723 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01951804457688806 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.0194654955380338 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.01896005841534769 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.018909011660001772 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.017843640828593545 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.0495064378502637, "1": 0.07346909897918259, "2": 0.09871752985077217, "3": 0.12009650712701961, "4": 0.1322857318567977, "5": 0.1319295748639277, "6": 0.11912909770342466, "7": 0.09739576490685303, "8": 0.07209561052174608, "9": 0.04831968627849282, "10": 0.029321482112307024, "11": 0.016109952597631975, "12": 0.008013996291812242, "13": 0.003609529059768694 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.06445252855479482, "1": 0.0947294456992689, "2": 0.12364614055302993, "3": 0.14332655645638626, "4": 0.14754459383432814, "5": 0.13488711577685256, "6": 0.10951362847898655, "7": 0.07896168391257363, "8": 0.05056094320504607, "9": 0.028751762044095786, "10": 0.014519922444994893, "11": 0.006512004030580646, "12": 0.002593675009061732 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "SD 4 - 5 MIL", "winner": "MIL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "SD 4 - 5 MIL", "winner": "MIL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0331, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.334, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "MIL", "model_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "MIL", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.723, "winner": "MIL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20261005	20261005_CHW@CLE	CLE	51.8%	54.0%	56.4%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	4-3	miss	Variance Applied (0.395)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.539822, "sample_size": 821, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5639, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.551861, "published_confidence": 0.5185, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -5.0, "absolute_net_margin": 5.0, "home_average_margin": -1.0, "home_run_delta": -0.0288, "away_run_delta": 0.0288, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.2685, "recent_quality_edge": 0.04, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.1605 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01744160494745018 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.017375707797229457 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.017334799164934776 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.017269305543902796 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.015876983281940128 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.048314403764278285, "1": 0.07175173601017976, "2": 0.09661848868951951, "3": 0.11796688312224266, "4": 0.13059664125373613, "5": 0.13109192735013284, "6": 0.11931414339498507, "7": 0.09846456002099437, "8": 0.07367836837057504, "9": 0.04998872879225278, "10": 0.030752202373672564, "11": 0.017153486031480765, "12": 0.008675621581975525, "13": 0.003978513588860975, "14": 0.0016542956551136854 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.05009797024117762, "1": 0.07431848632840023, "2": 0.0997441633368908, "3": 0.12111335612248927, "4": 0.13304865753377382, "5": 0.13223391794855024, "6": 0.11890199614517424, "7": 0.09672736041242856, "8": 0.07119072868340738, "9": 0.0474036137658919, "10": 0.028557052144400165, "11": 0.015564286235275058, "12": 0.007674656641990396, "13": 0.003423754460150115 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CHW 4 - 5 CLE", "winner": "CLE" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CHW 4 - 5 CLE", "winner": "CLE" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.049, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.03, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "CLE", "model_winner": "CLE", "simulation_winner": "CLE", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "CLE", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.1605, "winner": "CLE", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20261005	20261005_NYY@TB	NYY	54.0%	48.5%	57.9%	50.0%	4.0-2.0	2-5	miss	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.484824, "sample_size": 485, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5794, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.532112, "published_confidence": 0.539619, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -14.0, "absolute_net_margin": 14.0, "home_average_margin": -2.8, "home_run_delta": -0.0808, "away_run_delta": 0.0808, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -7.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -8.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.2853, "recent_quality_edge": 0.028, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.1757 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.028425001857791943 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.026624637022712536 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02655888481906244 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.026233106036805034 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.026168542020327538 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.08835713498291922, "1": 0.1278072747072023, "2": 0.1590222455882233, "3": 0.17019568619203276, "4": 0.15668505451913656, "5": 0.12407804914258759, "6": 0.08451828939924737, "7": 0.04952161498021102, "8": 0.024959004456441655, "9": 0.010820518614672165, "10": 0.004035127417326009 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.08480018763735535, "1": 0.1229653602338988, "2": 0.15413496442680732, "3": 0.16701364466852497, "4": 0.15643543980704544, "5": 0.12666328533417143, "6": 0.08865408588729988, "7": 0.05363881451733485, "8": 0.02805381911797119, "9": 0.012683444737746479, "10": 0.004956953631844255 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "NYY 4 - 2 TB", "winner": "NYY" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "NYY 4 - 2 TB", "winner": "NYY" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.02, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.182, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "winner": "NYY", "model_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "NYY", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.1757, "winner": "NYY", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20261006	20261006_LAD@ATL	LAD	50.5%	51.0%	54.8%	50.0%	4.0-3.0	3-1	hit	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 566, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5477, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5289, "published_confidence": 0.505154, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 13.0, "absolute_net_margin": 13.0, "home_average_margin": 2.6, "home_run_delta": 0.075, "away_run_delta": -0.075, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.5802, "recent_quality_edge": -0.664, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.6096 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.030645802666319066 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02946651036732466 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.02904938315086207 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.027931523252938757 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.027649724807175473 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.09651524120900042, "1": 0.13880981486856983, "2": 0.16976707238023186, "3": 0.17656139578619717, "4": 0.1561518224534555, "5": 0.1174376550497356, "6": 0.07510635646569538, "7": 0.04084651673900808, "8": 0.018890452886973188, "9": 0.007429143078165037, "10": 0.002484529082967977 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.09247624117108566, "1": 0.1333806415151809, "2": 0.16452850874626485, "3": 0.17357023334494293, "4": 0.1566011906739639, "5": 0.12083718478680057, "6": 0.07974287036340168, "7": 0.045005838359221284, "8": 0.021723588845602795, "9": 0.00896767828065708, "10": 0.0031660239128782123 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "LAD 4 - 3 ATL", "winner": "LAD" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "LAD 4 - 3 ATL", "winner": "LAD" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0609, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.314, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "LAD", "model_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "LAD", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333, "draw_majority_team": "ATL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.6096, "winner": "LAD", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20261006	20261006_MIL@SD	SD	56.6%	72.1%	57.1%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	3-4	hit	Variance Applied (-0.1689)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.721177, "sample_size": 357, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5714, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.646289, "published_confidence": 0.56643, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 7.0, "absolute_net_margin": 7.0, "home_average_margin": 1.4, "home_run_delta": 0.0404, "away_run_delta": -0.0404, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 9.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -6.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.179, "recent_quality_edge": 0.124, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.723 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.018282124026797165 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.0179107370638165 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01776986977420475 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.01740888885326085 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.017259590176132676 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.0389874502520409, "1": 0.05824723506129995, "2": 0.07985226113532017, "3": 0.10045245258024885, "4": 0.11595655216022074, "5": 0.12282632708420077, "6": 0.1193848063786763, "7": 0.1064800082848269, "8": 0.08714621228882287, "9": 0.06544709553767908, "10": 0.04510177796389759, "11": 0.028520581104462383, "12": 0.01654948562479533, "13": 0.008811950576144362, "14": 0.00430547456486219, "15": 0.0019303294025015856 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.06629352928927651, "1": 0.0973172818966363, "2": 0.12656304685032707, "3": 0.14582164499259354, "4": 0.14884532054975702, "5": 0.1346004460418045, "6": 0.10783405412559349, "7": 0.07653559947514474, "8": 0.04812482508240616, "9": 0.026808527516015153, "10": 0.01323045798596238, "11": 0.00578462108436347, "12": 0.002240645110119733 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "MIL 4 - 5 SD", "winner": "SD" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "MIL 4 - 5 SD", "winner": "SD" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0494, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.334, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "SD", "model_winner": "SD", "simulation_winner": "SD", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 5, "published_winner": "SD", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6, "draw_majority_team": "SD", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.723, "winner": "SD", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20261007	20261007_CLE@CHW	CLE	53.5%	53.5%	58.2%	45.0%	5.0-4.0	9-3	hit	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.534519, "sample_size": 464, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5819, "empirical_weight": 0.45, "empirical_max_weight": 0.45, "empirical_sample_scale": 200.0, "blended_confidence": 0.555841, "published_confidence": 0.535129, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 5.0, "absolute_net_margin": 5.0, "home_average_margin": 1.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0288, "away_run_delta": -0.0288, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.2685, "recent_quality_edge": -0.04, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.1605 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.017682571406886477 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01766788067777547 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01748964662303455 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.017475116176366247 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01615689013542389 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05092677718783937, "1": 0.07550747472048212, "2": 0.10117696873421211, "3": 0.12252405090665044, "4": 0.1340938918974087, "5": 0.1326308674019953, "6": 0.11855726976450373, "7": 0.09577667025838944, "8": 0.0699260899971712, "9": 0.04613884521810992, "10": 0.02751326694257132, "11": 0.014827419282536827, "12": 0.007221658384356077, "13": 0.003178749303773532 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04918643147186386, "1": 0.0730093256033763, "2": 0.09816074872009906, "3": 0.11954292874158819, "4": 0.13186709071293787, "5": 0.13175753517015262, "6": 0.11924522642548871, "7": 0.09775366459122385, "8": 0.07258578795794711, "9": 0.048819873302705485, "10": 0.02974186542042328, "11": 0.01641217972377906, "12": 0.008203342191200962, "13": 0.003713999967213697 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "CLE 5 - 4 CHW", "winner": "CLE" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "CLE 5 - 4 CHW", "winner": "CLE" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.008, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.03, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "CLE", "model_winner": "CLE", "simulation_winner": "CLE", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "CLE", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "CLE", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.1605, "winner": "CLE", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20261007	20261007_LAD@ATL	LAD	50.7%	53.5%	54.7%	45.0%	6.0-4.0	4-1	hit	Embedded Savant Run Environment (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.534804, "sample_size": 612, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5474, "empirical_weight": 0.45, "empirical_max_weight": 0.45, "empirical_sample_scale": 200.0, "blended_confidence": 0.540472, "published_confidence": 0.507177, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 13.0, "absolute_net_margin": 13.0, "home_average_margin": 2.6, "home_run_delta": 0.075, "away_run_delta": -0.075, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.5802, "recent_quality_edge": -0.664, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.6096 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.029489293489311747 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.027917437096966608 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.02755127327653959 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.027151150086434102 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.026653902819991263 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.09211252309380141, "1": 0.13288998686610193, "2": 0.16404895161360217, "3": 0.17328552273421471, "4": 0.15662414851489012, "5": 0.12113308721911, "6": 0.08016309371442268, "7": 0.045393510879338794, "8": 0.02199483451469634, "9": 0.00911916858374983, "10": 0.003235172266072179 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.08833595639220453, "1": 0.1277785247823392, "2": 0.15899350875836135, "3": 0.17017747948016648, "4": 0.15668446883516363, "5": 0.12409405660453059, "6": 0.08454290824049321, "7": 0.04954553863778199, "8": 0.024976587112597547, "9": 0.010830856563193806, "10": 0.004040114593167503 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "LAD 6 - 4 ATL", "winner": "LAD" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "LAD 6 - 4 ATL", "winner": "LAD" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1387, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.314, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "LAD", "model_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "LAD", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "LAD", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.6096, "winner": "LAD", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20261007	20261007_MIL@SD	MIL	50.5%	50.4%	54.9%	45.0%	6.0-5.0	3-1	hit	Fundamental Edge Target Review (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.504492, "sample_size": 567, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5485, "empirical_weight": 0.45, "empirical_max_weight": 0.45, "empirical_sample_scale": 200.0, "blended_confidence": 0.524296, "published_confidence": 0.505, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 7.0, "absolute_net_margin": 7.0, "home_average_margin": 1.4, "home_run_delta": 0.0404, "away_run_delta": -0.0404, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 9.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -6.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.179, "recent_quality_edge": 0.124, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.723 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02027699864654153 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.019270353943855057 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.019194832702538276 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019163729559404433 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.019112176732514634 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.057878380388167616, "1": 0.08543432439696529, "2": 0.11296422029027611, "3": 0.13379562991725308, "4": 0.14195001672048477, "5": 0.13490295640999328, "6": 0.11484179887848654, "7": 0.0875731569195755, "8": 0.059818363148433945, "9": 0.03660079712742226, "10": 0.02006037572285571, "11": 0.009848726603451263, "12": 0.004331253476634715 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.058821078416750536, "1": 0.08677233064039432, "2": 0.11452137735737351, "3": 0.13522247581227848, "4": 0.14284604619997457, "5": 0.13500336246624, "6": 0.1141505391270846, "7": 0.08635119834475068, "8": 0.058440751389698314, "9": 0.03538508423048862, "10": 0.01916821608854328, "11": 0.009289667716227187, "12": 0.004027872210195613 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "MIL 6 - 5 SD", "winner": "MIL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "MIL 6 - 5 SD", "winner": "MIL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0447, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.334, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "MIL", "model_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "MIL", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.1667, "draw_majority_team": "SD", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.723, "winner": "MIL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20261007	20261007_TB@NYY	NYY	54.4%	48.4%	56.7%	45.0%	3.0-4.0	4-3	miss	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.483821, "sample_size": 393, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5674, "empirical_weight": 0.45, "empirical_max_weight": 0.45, "empirical_sample_scale": 200.0, "blended_confidence": 0.521431, "published_confidence": 0.544016, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 14.0, "absolute_net_margin": 14.0, "home_average_margin": 2.8, "home_run_delta": 0.0808, "away_run_delta": -0.0808, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 7.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 8.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.2853, "recent_quality_edge": -0.028, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.1757 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.024571149423370492 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.024254044154911086 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.023920224256027942 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.023611519563234765 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.02206000976023823 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.07360930233901197, "1": 0.10754056582013177, "2": 0.13786423793583563, "3": 0.15508529613698727, "4": 0.15308382833349696, "5": 0.13259516778739763, "6": 0.10077800843404823, "7": 0.06721149223989481, "8": 0.039333355352088026, "9": 0.020198454734309753, "10": 0.00910154219490888, "11": 0.003598748691889274 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.0765518225234127, "1": 0.11161827464051573, "2": 0.14224436687248906, "3": 0.15843635751042914, "4": 0.15423915001522223, "5": 0.13123642713898623, "6": 0.0975964845844931, "7": 0.06343573149970959, "8": 0.036037423291023184, "9": 0.017893426383670735, "10": 0.007765211553087446, "11": 0.002945323986960967 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TB 3 - 4 NYY", "winner": "NYY" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TB 3 - 4 NYY", "winner": "NYY" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0142, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.182, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "NYY", "model_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "NYY", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "NYY", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.1757, "winner": "NYY", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20261008	20261008_CLE@CHW	CLE	50.5%	50.6%	55.0%	45.0%	5.0-4.0	9-5	hit	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.506495, "sample_size": 571, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5499, "empirical_weight": 0.45, "empirical_max_weight": 0.45, "empirical_sample_scale": 200.0, "blended_confidence": 0.526027, "published_confidence": 0.505, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 5.0, "absolute_net_margin": 5.0, "home_average_margin": 1.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0288, "away_run_delta": -0.0288, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.2685, "recent_quality_edge": -0.04, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.1605 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02104144036995725 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02021519902748303 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02008076628165565 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01967980397901703 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01951169966886091 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.062047030815691795, "1": 0.09133807824158416, "2": 0.11978568715517415, "3": 0.13995234508474366, "4": 0.14567251698748013, "5": 0.13508193125053283, "6": 0.1115935492546071, "7": 0.08213024396284029, "8": 0.053850448884133796, "9": 0.0314555827554185, "10": 0.016369233199743146, "11": 0.007588940168275316, "12": 0.003134412239775193 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.060592352614690516, "1": 0.08928173969288443, "2": 0.11742419497162294, "3": 0.13784869443411552, "4": 0.14444344619764937, "5": 0.13509620336077818, "6": 0.11278168145877458, "7": 0.08403962477505829, "8": 0.055895875457698856, "9": 0.03318375581463857, "10": 0.017584152181858034, "11": 0.008317014274801904, "12": 0.003511264765428741 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "CLE 5 - 4 CHW", "winner": "CLE" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "CLE 5 - 4 CHW", "winner": "CLE" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0005, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.03, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "CLE", "model_winner": "CLE", "simulation_winner": "CLE", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "CLE", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333, "draw_majority_team": "CHW", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.1605, "winner": "CLE", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20261008	20261008_TB@NYY	TB	50.5%	46.0%	54.9%	45.0%	4.0-3.0	Official result pending	void_not_on_official_schedule	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.4601, "sample_size": 567, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5485, "empirical_weight": 0.45, "empirical_max_weight": 0.45, "empirical_sample_scale": 200.0, "blended_confidence": 0.49988, "published_confidence": 0.505154, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 14.0, "absolute_net_margin": 14.0, "home_average_margin": 2.8, "home_run_delta": 0.0808, "away_run_delta": -0.0808, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 7.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 8.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.2853, "recent_quality_edge": -0.028, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.1757 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02977446606730336 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.028291716375412546 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.027913743424468507 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02728175686900735 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02677285189521744 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.09316346975850749, "1": 0.13430692565689223, "2": 0.1654310887117755, "3": 0.17410122001670134, "4": 0.156549782210955, "5": 0.12027326143197681, "6": 0.07894991642777797, "7": 0.04427924713997791, "8": 0.02121850338921779, "9": 0.008687508358355809, "10": 0.003039076897862196 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.08932475304197016, "1": 0.12911979264795462, "2": 0.16033054462105878, "3": 0.1710181356824905, "4": 0.1567005496365289, "5": 0.12333925586552884, "6": 0.08339395675466021, "7": 0.048436225047839905, "8": 0.02416620463792515, "9": 0.01035735975013837, "10": 0.003813222313904249 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "TB 4 - 3 NYY", "winner": "TB" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "TB 4 - 3 NYY", "winner": "TB" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0258, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.182, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "TB", "model_winner": "TB", "simulation_winner": "TB", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 1, "published_winner": "TB", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "TB", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.1757, "winner": "TB", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20261010	20261010_CHW@CLE	CLE	52.7%	51.0%	56.8%	45.0%	5.0-6.0	0-2	hit	Variance Applied (0.2224)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 739, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5683, "empirical_weight": 0.45, "empirical_max_weight": 0.45, "empirical_sample_scale": 200.0, "blended_confidence": 0.53629, "published_confidence": 0.526845, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -5.0, "absolute_net_margin": 5.0, "home_average_margin": -1.0, "home_run_delta": -0.0288, "away_run_delta": 0.0288, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.2685, "recent_quality_edge": 0.04, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.1605 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.016105061651613514 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.015604888784574392 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.015475104170797418 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.015319647301526141 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.015164065395994575 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.042088349881007514, "1": 0.06275675094894718, "2": 0.0855296249829942, "3": 0.10654430703624167, "4": 0.12131136654563023, "5": 0.12624968566904232, "6": 0.12009271980554614, "7": 0.10441445365599299, "8": 0.08297783986028358, "9": 0.06027277591819486, "10": 0.04001638265884713, "11": 0.024283541571535158, "12": 0.013469261618018659, "13": 0.006828622676162745, "14": 0.003164317171555586 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04352501688314665, "1": 0.06483872848411987, "2": 0.08812143769079438, "3": 0.10926478149299158, "4": 0.12360338722333046, "5": 0.12756516237063895, "6": 0.12011170812532926, "7": 0.10317872177202496, "8": 0.08086237384618969, "9": 0.057816842870782106, "10": 0.037714973125808106, "11": 0.022445266965423996, "12": 0.012186732856621793, "13": 0.006036724414603299, "14": 0.002728141878195012 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "CHW 5 - 6 CLE", "winner": "CLE" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "CHW 5 - 6 CLE", "winner": "CLE" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0225, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.03, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "CLE", "model_winner": "CLE", "simulation_winner": "CLE", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 5, "published_winner": "CLE", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.2, "draw_majority_team": "CHW", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.1605, "winner": "CLE", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20261011	20261011_LAD@MIL	MIL	54.8%	53.1%	57.5%	45.0%	2.0-4.0	1-2	hit	Embedded Savant Run Environment (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.530967, "sample_size": 699, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5751, "empirical_weight": 0.45, "empirical_max_weight": 0.45, "empirical_sample_scale": 200.0, "blended_confidence": 0.550827, "published_confidence": 0.548241, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 2.0, "absolute_net_margin": 2.0, "home_average_margin": 0.4, "home_run_delta": 0.0115, "away_run_delta": -0.0115, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.108, "recent_quality_edge": -0.192, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.003 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03048065635123685 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.02971535938338882 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.028474146349854255 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.028068515824689066 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.027759228087842477 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.0883022901355031, "1": 0.12773282088661514, "2": 0.15894781869253627, "3": 0.170148519285485, "4": 0.1566835159676033, "5": 0.12411948811684768, "6": 0.08458204397897527, "7": 0.0495835832699874, "8": 0.025004557568802155, "9": 0.010847308031820524, "10": 0.004048054065823897 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.10039091841867395, "1": 0.14398554966485957, "2": 0.17464365548506877, "3": 0.17914147286873916, "4": 0.15539924025947524, "5": 0.1140016310590986, "6": 0.07072658059672843, "7": 0.03710766966550577, "8": 0.016464711487228424, "9": 0.006178086592985461, "10": 0.001960483901636488 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "LAD 2 - 4 MIL", "winner": "MIL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "LAD 2 - 4 MIL", "winner": "MIL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0718, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.122, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "MIL", "model_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "MIL", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.1667, "draw_majority_team": "LAD", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.003, "winner": "MIL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }

Starting-pitcher component quality

H	{ "mae": 1.9764, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.2594 }
R	{ "mae": 1.6698, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.4717 }
ER	{ "mae": 1.6226, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.5377 }
BB	{ "mae": 1.434, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.434 }
SO	{ "mae": 2.6557, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 1.0519 }
HR	{ "mae": 0.783, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.0849 }
IP_outs	{ "mae_outs": 4.184, "mae_innings": 1.3947, "bias_outs": 2.3726 }

IP error is measured in outs. No single-outing ERA is used; ER and workload are compared directly.

Date

Game

Side

Pred starter

Actual starter

Match

Pred IP

Actual IP

Δ outs

Pred ER

Actual ER

Δ ER

H P/A

BB P/A

SO P/A

All context

20260922

20260922_ARI@COL

away

Michael Soroka

True

5.0

7.0

-1

2/2

2/1

4/9

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.450479233226837,
      "WHIP": 1.1309904153354633,
      "IP": 104.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 20,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.281,
      "recent_avg_IP": 3.867,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0045,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0004,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9946,
      "walk_factor": 0.939,
      "homer_factor": 0.9935,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.5,
      "bb_percent": 6.1,
      "woba": 0.287,
      "xwoba": 0.315,
      "barrel_percent": 8.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.4,
      "whiff_percent": 22.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 83,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 20.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8,
        "prior_weight": 0.2
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "647336",
      "report_date": "20260922",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 20,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 22.1,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 96.0,
            "Pitches": 379.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 19.2,
            "Pitches": 75.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.8358,
            "WHIP": 1.2985,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.53731,
            "H_per_IP": 0.89552,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.40299,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.98507,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08955
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 49.1,
            "ER": 20.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 37.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 44.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 196.0,
            "Pitches": 764.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 3.7,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 19.6,
            "Pitches": 76.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6486,
            "WHIP": 0.9932,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.40541,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.24324,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.89189,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08108
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 20,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 104.1,
            "ER": 40.0,
            "R": 40.0,
            "H": 92.0,
            "BB": 26.0,
            "SO": 101.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 429.0,
            "Pitches": 1669.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 1.3,
            "SO": 5.05,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 21.45,
            "Pitches": 83.45
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4505,
            "WHIP": 1.131,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.38339,
            "H_per_IP": 0.88179,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2492,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.96805,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07668
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.264,
        "predicted_H": 4.186,
        "predicted_BB": 1.58,
        "predicted_SO": 4.557,
        "predicted_HR": 0.467,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.2324,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1978
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4345,
      "form_weight": 0.5655,
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8,
        "prior_weight": 0.2
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.264,
          "final": 2.1493,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.186,
          "final": 3.2362,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.58,
          "final": 1.7625,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 4.557,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 0.467,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.2324,
          "final": 4.2324,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1978,
          "final": 1.1978,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 49.1,
        "ER": 20,
        "H": 37,
        "BB": 12,
        "SO": 44,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 3.648648648648649,
        "WHIP": 0.9932432432432433,
        "K9": 8.027027027027028,
        "HR9": 0.7297297297297298,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-15T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8987118163145282,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 20.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8,
          "prior_weight": 0.2
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "647336",
      "player_name": "Michael Soroka",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ARI",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "percent_delta": null,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          }
        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "ARI",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 82,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.5256,
        "runs_scored": 693.0,
        "runs_allowed": 694.0,
        "run_differential": -1.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0064,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4423,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4487,
        "offense_index": 0.9921,
        "defense_index": 1.0065,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0,
          "run_differential": -3.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.014
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "COL",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 57,
        "losses": 99,
        "win_pct": 0.3654,
        "runs_scored": 727.0,
        "runs_allowed": 904.0,
        "run_differential": -177.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.1346,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6603,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7949,
        "offense_index": 1.0407,
        "defense_index": 0.7727,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.4,
          "run_differential": -23.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3588
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.3448,
        "offense_edge": -0.0079,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0407,
        "defense_strength": 0.0065,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.2273,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0124,
        "run_prevention": 0.9886,
        "strikeout": 1.0071
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "647336",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "647336",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 406.0,
            "k_percent": 23.5,
            "bb_percent": 6.1,
            "woba": 0.287,
            "xwoba": 0.315,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 37.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 33.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.3304,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.3674,
            "whiff_percent": 22.5,
            "swing_percent": 49.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.15,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3113,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.595,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.05,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.092,
            "command_and_miss": 0.1279,
            "regression_edge": -0.8,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.1071,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.6429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3643,
            "bb_edge": 0.7625,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1155
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "647336",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 61,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 61,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.79524232123826,
              "release_spin_rate": 2598.719346360736,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 61,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.79524232123826,
                "release_spin_rate": 2598.719346360736,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.7952,
              "release_spin_rate": 2598.7193,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1155,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.8249,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0045,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0004,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9946,
          "walk_factor": 0.939,
          "homer_factor": 0.9935,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.028,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "647336",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0004,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0004,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.939,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9935,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9946,
            "adjusted": 5
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 89,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by +6 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260922_ARI@COL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260922

20260922_ARI@COL

home

Kyle Freeland

True

4.2

3.0

-5

6/9

2/1

2/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 6.381818181818181,
      "WHIP": 1.4727272727272727,
      "IP": 128.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 24,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.347,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.8,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.5113,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0435,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9626,
      "walk_factor": 0.915,
      "homer_factor": 1.1234,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.1,
      "bb_percent": 4.9,
      "woba": 0.377,
      "xwoba": 0.35,
      "barrel_percent": 10.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 43.1,
      "whiff_percent": 22.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 561,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "607536",
      "report_date": "20260922",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 24,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 29.0,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 28.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 19.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 122.0,
            "Pitches": 427.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 24.4,
            "Pitches": 85.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1034,
            "WHIP": 1.2069,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.34483,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96552,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.24138,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.65517,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.2069
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 56.1,
            "ER": 31.0,
            "R": 33.0,
            "H": 62.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 43.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 240.0,
            "Pitches": 854.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 3.1,
            "R": 3.3,
            "H": 6.2,
            "BB": 1.1,
            "SO": 4.3,
            "HR": 1.1,
            "BF": 24.0,
            "Pitches": 85.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.9527,
            "WHIP": 1.2959,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5503,
            "H_per_IP": 1.10059,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.19527,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.76331,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.19527
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 24,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 128.1,
            "ER": 91.0,
            "R": 95.0,
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          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
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          "rates": {
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            "SO_per_IP": 0.81039,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.21039
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      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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        "predicted_BB": 1.388,
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
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        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 2.767,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.921,
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        "predicted_BB": {
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          "form": 1.388,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 4.27,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.089,
          "final": 1.4742,
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        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.4379,
          "final": 4.4379,
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3024,
          "final": 1.3024,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
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        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
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        "BB": 0,
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        "AVG": 0,
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      "pitching": {
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      },
      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
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      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-15T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.052978768177634,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "stats": {
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          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8276,
          "prior_weight": 0.1724
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 2,
          "predicted_HR": 2
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "607536",
      "player_name": "Kyle Freeland",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "COL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
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            {
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            {
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            {
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
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          {
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          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "COL",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 57,
        "losses": 99,
        "win_pct": 0.3654,
        "runs_scored": 727.0,
        "runs_allowed": 904.0,
        "run_differential": -177.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.1346,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6603,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7949,
        "offense_index": 1.0407,
        "defense_index": 0.7727,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.4,
          "run_differential": -23.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3588
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "ARI",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 82,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.5256,
        "runs_scored": 693.0,
        "runs_allowed": 694.0,
        "run_differential": -1.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0064,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4423,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4487,
        "offense_index": 0.9921,
        "defense_index": 1.0065,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0,
          "run_differential": -3.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.014
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.3448,
        "offense_edge": 0.0407,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0079,
        "defense_strength": -0.2273,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0065,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9797,
        "run_prevention": 1.0387,
        "strikeout": 0.9903
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "607536",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "607536",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 531.0,
            "k_percent": 18.1,
            "bb_percent": 4.9,
            "woba": 0.377,
            "xwoba": 0.35,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 10.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 43.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.712,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 95.1875,
            "whiff_percent": 22.3,
            "swing_percent": 51.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.15,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3113,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.595,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.05,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.9501,
            "command_and_miss": -0.1693,
            "regression_edge": 0.7714,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.1071,
            "barrel_edge": -0.7556,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.7429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3929,
            "bb_edge": 1.0625,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1539
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "607536",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 92,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 92,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.10896327807998,
              "release_spin_rate": 2265.301600180975,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
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                "pitches": 92,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.10896327807998,
                "release_spin_rate": 2265.301600180975,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.109,
              "release_spin_rate": 2265.3016,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1539,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.0994,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.5113,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0435,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9626,
          "walk_factor": 0.915,
          "homer_factor": 1.1234,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.027,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "607536",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0435,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0435,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.915,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.1234,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9626,
            "adjusted": 4
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 2,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 97,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260922_ARI@COL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260922

20260922_CHW@KC

away

Anthony Kay

True

5.0

4.0

-3

7/7

0/1

5/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.409395973154362,
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      "pitching": {
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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        {
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      "total_change": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "641743",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "641743",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
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          "metrics": {
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          "components": {
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            "pitch_design_score": 0.011
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "641743",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 86,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
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              "pitches": 86,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
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              "xwoba": 0.0,
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                "pitches": 86,
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                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            "summary": {
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
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          "predicted_H": {
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          "predicted_BB": {
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          "predicted_HR": {
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    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 84,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260922_CHW@KC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260922

20260922_CHW@KC

home

Daniel Lynch IV

True

5.2

4.0

-5

3/7

3/3

4/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "WHIP": 1.0695652173913044,
      "IP": 76.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 54,
      "role_avg_IP": 3.833,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.533,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0294,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0025,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.958,
      "walk_factor": 0.965,
      "homer_factor": 0.9656,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 16.7,
      "bb_percent": 7.4,
      "woba": 0.273,
      "xwoba": 0.309,
      "barrel_percent": 5.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.2,
      "whiff_percent": 22.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 156,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 76.2,
      "season_ERA": 3.287,
      "season_WHIP": 1.07,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
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      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 15.602,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7573,
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      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "663738",
      "report_date": "20260922",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 54,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
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          "totals": {
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            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 11.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 94.0,
            "Pitches": 352.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 2.2,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 18.8,
            "Pitches": 70.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.3676,
            "WHIP": 1.1912,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.48529,
            "H_per_IP": 0.88235,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30882,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.48529,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08824
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 32.2,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 30.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 18.0,
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            "BF": 137.0,
            "Pitches": 492.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.1,
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            "R": 1.9,
            "H": 3.0,
            "BB": 1.1,
            "SO": 1.8,
            "HR": 0.4,
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            "Pitches": 49.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.9592,
            "WHIP": 1.2551,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.55102,
            "H_per_IP": 0.91837,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33673,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.55102,
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          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 54,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 76.2,
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            "R": 32.0,
            "H": 59.0,
            "BB": 23.0,
            "SO": 52.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 312.0,
            "Pitches": 1146.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.1,
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            "H": 1.0926,
            "BB": 0.4259,
            "SO": 0.963,
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            "BF": 5.7778,
            "Pitches": 21.2222
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          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.0696,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.36522,
            "H_per_IP": 0.76957,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.67826,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07826
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.987,
        "predicted_H": 3.641,
        "predicted_BB": 1.342,
        "predicted_SO": 2.6,
        "predicted_HR": 0.448,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.4145,
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    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "form_reliability": 0.7573,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.987,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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        "predicted_BB": {
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "final": 4.4145,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2298,
          "final": 1.2298,
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    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
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        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
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        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
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        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
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        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
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      "pitching": {
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        "ER": 18,
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        "BB": 11,
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        "K9": 4.959183673469387,
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        "games_pitched": 10,
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        "dominant_form": false,
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      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-16T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 1.0526934765461884,
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        "stats": {
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          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "663738",
      "player_name": "Daniel Lynch IV",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "KC",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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        {
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          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
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            "barrel_edge": 0.3556,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.1,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3071,
            "bb_edge": 0.4375,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0051
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "663738",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 65,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 65,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.7672524619299,
              "release_spin_rate": 2089.0752149624964,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 65,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.7672524619299,
                "release_spin_rate": 2089.0752149624964,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.7673,
              "release_spin_rate": 2089.0752,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0051,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.0361,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0294,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0025,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.958,
          "walk_factor": 0.965,
          "homer_factor": 0.9656,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.036,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "663738",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0025,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0025,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.965,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9656,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.958,
            "adjusted": 2
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 101,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 8",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +8; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260922_CHW@KC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260922

20260922_CIN@ATL

away

Brandon Williamson

True

4.0

6.0

-5

6/3

1/0

1/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.564885496183207,
      "WHIP": 1.534351145038168,
      "IP": 43.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 10,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.762,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.4,
      "last_start_IP": 5.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.6409,
      "sample_weight": 0.748,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0545,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9711,
      "walk_factor": 1.0696,
      "homer_factor": 1.0927,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 15.8,
      "bb_percent": 13.8,
      "woba": 0.355,
      "xwoba": 0.378,
      "barrel_percent": 9.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.8,
      "whiff_percent": 24.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 690,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.5625,
        "last_10": 0.43749999999999994
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 10.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6667,
        "prior_weight": 0.3333
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "682227",
      "report_date": "20260922",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 10,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 18.2,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 16.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 84.0,
            "Pitches": 303.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.2,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 3.6,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 3.2,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 16.8,
            "Pitches": 60.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.7857,
            "WHIP": 1.5536,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.64286,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96429,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.58929,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.85714,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.21429
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 43.2,
            "ER": 27.0,
            "R": 30.0,
            "H": 40.0,
            "BB": 27.0,
            "SO": 31.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 196.0,
            "Pitches": 763.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 2.7,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 2.7,
            "SO": 3.1,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 19.6,
            "Pitches": 76.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.5649,
            "WHIP": 1.5344,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.61832,
            "H_per_IP": 0.91603,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.61832,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.70992,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18321
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 43.2,
            "ER": 27.0,
            "R": 30.0,
            "H": 40.0,
            "BB": 27.0,
            "SO": 31.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 196.0,
            "Pitches": 763.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 2.7,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 2.7,
            "SO": 3.1,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 19.6,
            "Pitches": 76.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.5649,
            "WHIP": 1.5344,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.61832,
            "H_per_IP": 0.91603,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.61832,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.70992,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18321
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.481,
        "predicted_H": 4.008,
        "predicted_BB": 2.209,
        "predicted_SO": 3.528,
        "predicted_HR": 0.769,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.3225,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4823
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4908,
      "form_weight": 0.5092,
      "form_reliability": 0.6667,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 10.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6667,
        "prior_weight": 0.3333
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 4.1,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 2.481,
          "final": 4.2082,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.008,
          "final": 4.0041,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.209,
          "final": 1.6156,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 3.528,
          "final": 2.2872,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.769,
          "final": 1.3732,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.3225,
          "final": 5.3225,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4823,
          "final": 1.4823,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 43.2,
        "ER": 27,
        "H": 40,
        "BB": 27,
        "SO": 31,
        "HR": 8,
        "ERA": 5.564885496183208,
        "WHIP": 1.5343511450381682,
        "K9": 6.389312977099238,
        "HR9": 1.6488549618320614,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-17T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.1278161592070393,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 6.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 1.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 10.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.6667,
          "prior_weight": 0.3333
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.0,
          "predicted_ER": 6,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 1,
          "predicted_HR": 2
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "682227",
      "player_name": "Brandon Williamson",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CIN",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 6.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 1.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 6.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 1.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": -0.6667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1429,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": -0.6667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1429,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 6.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.0,
            "predicted_R": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 1.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": -0.6667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1429,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 2,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": -0.6667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1429,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CIN",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 72,
        "losses": 84,
        "win_pct": 0.4615,
        "runs_scored": 642.0,
        "runs_allowed": 805.0,
        "run_differential": -163.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.0449,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1154,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1603,
        "offense_index": 0.9176,
        "defense_index": 0.8691,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 7.2,
          "run_differential": -41.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2309
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "ATL",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 92,
        "losses": 64,
        "win_pct": 0.5897,
        "runs_scored": 722.0,
        "runs_allowed": 602.0,
        "run_differential": 120.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.7692,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6282,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.859,
        "offense_index": 1.032,
        "defense_index": 1.1622,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": 12.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2406
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.4715,
        "offense_edge": -0.0824,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.032,
        "defense_strength": -0.1309,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1622,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.4
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9759,
        "run_prevention": 1.0418,
        "strikeout": 0.9833
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "682227",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "682227",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 187.0,
            "k_percent": 15.8,
            "bb_percent": 13.8,
            "woba": 0.355,
            "xwoba": 0.378,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.6,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 41.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.4551,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.2242,
            "whiff_percent": 24.4,
            "swing_percent": 44.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.15,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3113,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.595,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.05,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -1.0864,
            "command_and_miss": -0.6571,
            "regression_edge": -0.6571,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.9071,
            "barrel_edge": -0.5556,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.5571,
            "whiff_edge": -0.0929,
            "bb_edge": -1.1625,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1483
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "682227",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 73,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 73,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.20960880352149,
              "release_spin_rate": 2285.3272132739307,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 73,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.20960880352149,
                "release_spin_rate": 2285.3272132739307,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.2096,
              "release_spin_rate": 2285.3272,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1483,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.0591,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.6409,
          "sample_weight": 0.748,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0545,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9711,
          "walk_factor": 1.0696,
          "homer_factor": 1.0927,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.023,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "682227",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0408,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0408,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0521,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0693,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9784,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 6,
      "predicted_ER": 6,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 1,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 84,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -5; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by +6 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 5 ER."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260922_CIN@ATL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260922

20260922_CIN@ATL

home

JR Ritchie

True

4.2

5.0

-1

2/4

2/3

7/8

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "WHIP": 1.4680851063829787,
      "IP": 62.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 15,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.926,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.533,
      "last_start_IP": 4.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.5222,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0444,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9843,
      "walk_factor": 1.091,
      "homer_factor": 1.0939,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 20.9,
      "bb_percent": 13.7,
      "woba": 0.344,
      "xwoba": 0.349,
      "barrel_percent": 9.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 40.9,
      "whiff_percent": 23.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 596,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 15.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.75,
        "prior_weight": 0.25
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "702275",
      "report_date": "20260922",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 15,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 17.2,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 16.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 16.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 78.0,
            "Pitches": 314.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.2,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 3.2,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 3.2,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 15.6,
            "Pitches": 62.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.1132,
            "WHIP": 1.4717,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.67925,
            "H_per_IP": 0.90566,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.56604,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.90566,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.22642
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 37.0,
            "ER": 22.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 33.0,
            "BB": 22.0,
            "SO": 37.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 164.0,
            "Pitches": 656.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.2,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.3,
            "H": 3.3,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 3.7,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 16.4,
            "Pitches": 65.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.3514,
            "WHIP": 1.4865,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.59459,
            "H_per_IP": 0.89189,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.59459,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18919
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 15,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 62.2,
            "ER": 35.0,
            "R": 38.0,
            "H": 54.0,
            "BB": 38.0,
            "SO": 58.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 278.0,
            "Pitches": 1105.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 2.3333,
            "R": 2.5333,
            "H": 3.6,
            "BB": 2.5333,
            "SO": 3.8667,
            "HR": 0.7333,
            "BF": 18.5333,
            "Pitches": 73.6667
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.0266,
            "WHIP": 1.4681,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.55851,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8617,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.60638,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.92553,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17553
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.396,
        "predicted_H": 3.672,
        "predicted_BB": 2.137,
        "predicted_SO": 3.781,
        "predicted_HR": 0.762,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.3692,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4462
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4556,
      "form_weight": 0.5444,
      "form_reliability": 0.75,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 15.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.75,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 4.0,
          "final": 4.1,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.396,
          "final": 2.2156,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 3.672,
          "final": 2.9102,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.137,
          "final": 2.0746,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 3.781,
          "final": 5.2477,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.762,
          "final": 0.4148,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.3692,
          "final": 5.3692,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4462,
          "final": 1.4462,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 37.0,
        "ER": 22,
        "H": 33,
        "BB": 22,
        "SO": 37,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 5.351351351351352,
        "WHIP": 1.4864864864864864,
        "K9": 9.0,
        "HR9": 1.7027027027027026,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-16T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.1025969514496632,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 15.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.75,
          "prior_weight": 0.25
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "702275",
      "player_name": "JR Ritchie",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ATL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "ATL",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 92,
        "losses": 64,
        "win_pct": 0.5897,
        "runs_scored": 722.0,
        "runs_allowed": 602.0,
        "run_differential": 120.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.7692,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6282,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.859,
        "offense_index": 1.032,
        "defense_index": 1.1622,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": 12.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2406
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CIN",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 72,
        "losses": 84,
        "win_pct": 0.4615,
        "runs_scored": 642.0,
        "runs_allowed": 805.0,
        "run_differential": -163.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.0449,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1154,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1603,
        "offense_index": 0.9176,
        "defense_index": 0.8691,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 7.2,
          "run_differential": -41.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2309
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.4715,
        "offense_edge": 0.032,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0824,
        "defense_strength": 0.1622,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.1309,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.4
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.027,
        "run_prevention": 0.947,
        "strikeout": 1.0207
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "702275",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "702275",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 254.0,
            "k_percent": 20.9,
            "bb_percent": 13.7,
            "woba": 0.344,
            "xwoba": 0.349,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 40.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.0658,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.1006,
            "whiff_percent": 23.3,
            "swing_percent": 41.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.15,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3113,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.595,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.05,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.7235,
            "command_and_miss": -0.3793,
            "regression_edge": -0.1429,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.0786,
            "barrel_edge": -0.5556,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.4286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.25,
            "bb_edge": -1.1375,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0512
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "702275",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 53,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 53,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.94346012532931,
              "release_spin_rate": 2338.3616406057945,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 53,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.94346012532931,
                "release_spin_rate": 2338.3616406057945,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.9435,
              "release_spin_rate": 2338.3616,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0512,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.3656,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.5222,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0444,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9843,
          "walk_factor": 1.091,
          "homer_factor": 1.0939,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.005,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "702275",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0444,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0444,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.091,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0939,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9843,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 85,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260922_CIN@ATL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260922

20260922_CLE@BOS

away

Parker Messick

True

6.0

5.0

-3

-2

1/5

2/1

8/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.5738317757009344,
      "WHIP": 1.0373831775700935,
      "IP": 178.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 30,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.944,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.867,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.5736,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9512,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.03,
      "walk_factor": 0.949,
      "homer_factor": 0.9065,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 26.2,
      "bb_percent": 6.6,
      "woba": 0.27,
      "xwoba": 0.273,
      "barrel_percent": 5.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.8,
      "whiff_percent": 26.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 6,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "800048",
      "report_date": "20260922",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 30,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 29.1,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 25.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 34.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 120.0,
            "Pitches": 483.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 6.8,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 24.0,
            "Pitches": 96.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7614,
            "WHIP": 1.0909,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.30682,
            "H_per_IP": 0.85227,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23864,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.15909,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10227
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 60.2,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 50.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 70.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 244.0,
            "Pitches": 965.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.7,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.1,
            "SO": 7.0,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 24.4,
            "Pitches": 96.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.3736,
            "WHIP": 1.0055,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.26374,
            "H_per_IP": 0.82418,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.18132,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.15385,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0989
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 30,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 178.1,
            "ER": 51.0,
            "R": 55.0,
            "H": 138.0,
            "BB": 47.0,
            "SO": 186.0,
            "HR": 17.0,
            "BF": 711.0,
            "Pitches": 2788.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.7,
            "R": 1.8333,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 1.5667,
            "SO": 6.2,
            "HR": 0.5667,
            "BF": 23.7,
            "Pitches": 92.9333
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.5738,
            "WHIP": 1.0374,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.28598,
            "H_per_IP": 0.77383,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26355,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.04299,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09533
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.916,
        "predicted_H": 5.092,
        "predicted_BB": 1.472,
        "predicted_SO": 6.636,
        "predicted_HR": 0.64,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.8741,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.094
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4104,
      "form_weight": 0.5896,
      "form_reliability": 0.8571,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.916,
          "final": 2.3608,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 5.092,
          "final": 3.4127,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.472,
          "final": 1.6887,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.636,
          "final": 6.375,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.64,
          "final": 0.7877,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.8741,
          "final": 2.8741,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.094,
          "final": 1.094,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 60.2,
        "ER": 16,
        "H": 50,
        "BB": 11,
        "SO": 70,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 2.3736263736263736,
        "WHIP": 1.0054945054945055,
        "K9": 10.384615384615383,
        "HR9": 0.8901098901098901,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 7,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-16T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7555780919308038,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 1.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 30.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8571,
          "prior_weight": 0.1429
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 1,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "800048",
      "player_name": "Parker Messick",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CLE",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
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          ],
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            "biggest_deboost": null
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          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          ],
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            "biggest_deboost": null
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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        ],
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          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
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        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CLE",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 81,
        "losses": 75,
        "win_pct": 0.5192,
        "runs_scored": 649.0,
        "runs_allowed": 647.0,
        "run_differential": 2.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0128,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1603,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1474,
        "offense_index": 0.9276,
        "defense_index": 1.0814,
        "current_streak": "W5",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": 14.0
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        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0879
      },
      "opponent": {
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        "games": 156,
        "wins": 84,
        "losses": 72,
        "win_pct": 0.5385,
        "runs_scored": 678.0,
        "runs_allowed": 598.0,
        "run_differential": 80.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5128,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3462,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8333,
        "offense_index": 0.9691,
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        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.4,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0606
      },
      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": -0.0724,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0309,
        "defense_strength": 0.0814,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0048,
        "run_prevention": 0.9856,
        "strikeout": 1.0033
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "800048",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "800048",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 679.0,
            "k_percent": 26.2,
            "bb_percent": 6.6,
            "woba": 0.27,
            "xwoba": 0.273,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 33.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.0732,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.4321,
            "whiff_percent": 26.0,
            "swing_percent": 48.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.15,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3113,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.595,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.05,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.8283,
            "command_and_miss": 0.4514,
            "regression_edge": -0.0857,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.0929,
            "barrel_edge": 0.4667,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.5857,
            "whiff_edge": 0.1357,
            "bb_edge": 0.6375,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0121
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "800048",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 99,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 99,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.07325626493206,
              "release_spin_rate": 2104.9326510494875,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 99,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.07325626493206,
                "release_spin_rate": 2104.9326510494875,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.0733,
              "release_spin_rate": 2104.9327,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0121,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.0863,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.5736,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9512,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.03,
          "walk_factor": 0.949,
          "homer_factor": 0.9065,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.003,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "800048",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9512,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9512,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.949,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9065,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.03,
            "adjusted": 7
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 1,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 99,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260922_CLE@BOS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260922

20260922_CLE@BOS

home

Payton Tolle

True

5.2

-1

4/8

2/2

6/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "WHIP": 1.06993006993007,
      "IP": 143.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.72,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.6,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.8185,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9304,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0574,
      "walk_factor": 0.949,
      "homer_factor": 0.9158,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 28.9,
      "bb_percent": 6.6,
      "woba": 0.282,
      "xwoba": 0.253,
      "barrel_percent": 6.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.7,
      "whiff_percent": 28.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 41,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
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        "last_10": 0.35,
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      },
      "shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "801139",
      "report_date": "20260922",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 25,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.0,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 38.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 114.0,
            "Pitches": 478.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 7.6,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 22.8,
            "Pitches": 95.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.2143,
            "WHIP": 1.1071,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.35714,
            "H_per_IP": 0.85714,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.35714,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07143
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 59.0,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 50.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 79.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 234.0,
            "Pitches": 919.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.9,
            "R": 1.9,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.3,
            "SO": 7.9,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 23.4,
            "Pitches": 91.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.8983,
            "WHIP": 1.0678,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.32203,
            "H_per_IP": 0.84746,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.22034,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.33898,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11864
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 25,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 143.0,
            "ER": 48.0,
            "R": 52.0,
            "H": 115.0,
            "BB": 38.0,
            "SO": 166.0,
            "HR": 15.0,
            "BF": 575.0,
            "Pitches": 2191.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.92,
            "R": 2.08,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 1.52,
            "SO": 6.64,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 23.0,
            "Pitches": 87.64
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.021,
            "WHIP": 1.0699,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33566,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8042,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26573,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.16084,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1049
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.126,
        "predicted_H": 4.992,
        "predicted_BB": 1.527,
        "predicted_SO": 7.2,
        "predicted_HR": 0.598,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.3191,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.131
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4204,
      "form_weight": 0.5796,
      "form_reliability": 0.8333,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.126,
          "final": 2.4935,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.992,
          "final": 4.5749,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.527,
          "final": 1.7259,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 7.2,
          "final": 4.5933,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.598,
          "final": 1.1874,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.3191,
          "final": 3.3191,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.131,
          "final": 1.131,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 59.0,
        "ER": 19,
        "H": 50,
        "BB": 13,
        "SO": 79,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 2.8983050847457625,
        "WHIP": 1.0677966101694916,
        "K9": 12.05084745762712,
        "HR9": 1.0677966101694916,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-13T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8161619995486097,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 1.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 25.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8333,
          "prior_weight": 0.1667
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "801139",
      "player_name": "Payton Tolle",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "BOS",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 1.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 6.0,
              "percent_delta": 6.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 3,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 2,
            "better_metrics": 2,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 6.0,
              "percent_delta": 6.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.2,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.1429,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 2,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.1429,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 5.0,
            "percent_delta": 5.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 5.0,
            "percent_delta": 5.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "BOS",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 84,
        "losses": 72,
        "win_pct": 0.5385,
        "runs_scored": 678.0,
        "runs_allowed": 598.0,
        "run_differential": 80.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5128,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3462,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8333,
        "offense_index": 0.9691,
        "defense_index": 1.17,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.4,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0606
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CLE",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 81,
        "losses": 75,
        "win_pct": 0.5192,
        "runs_scored": 649.0,
        "runs_allowed": 647.0,
        "run_differential": 2.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0128,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1603,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1474,
        "offense_index": 0.9276,
        "defense_index": 1.0814,
        "current_streak": "W5",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": 14.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0879
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0273,
        "offense_edge": -0.0309,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0724,
        "defense_strength": 0.17,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0814,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0069,
        "run_prevention": 0.9728,
        "strikeout": 1.005
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "801139",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "801139",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 546.0,
            "k_percent": 28.9,
            "bb_percent": 6.6,
            "woba": 0.282,
            "xwoba": 0.253,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 34.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.2876,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.548,
            "whiff_percent": 28.1,
            "swing_percent": 55.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.15,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3113,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.595,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.05,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.9502,
            "command_and_miss": 0.73,
            "regression_edge": 0.8286,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.6643,
            "barrel_edge": 0.2,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.4571,
            "whiff_edge": 0.4357,
            "bb_edge": 0.6375,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1723
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "801139",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 94,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 94,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.93396318599987,
              "release_spin_rate": 2262.3895801288368,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 94,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.93396318599987,
                "release_spin_rate": 2262.3895801288368,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.934,
              "release_spin_rate": 2262.3896,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1723,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.2306,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.8185,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9304,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0574,
          "walk_factor": 0.949,
          "homer_factor": 0.9158,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.029,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "801139",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9304,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9304,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.949,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9158,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0574,
            "adjusted": 7
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 91,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260922_CLE@BOS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260922

20260922_HOU@SEA

away

Cristian Javier

True

5.0

2.0

-9

-3

6/1

3/2

2/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.311475409836065,
      "WHIP": 1.459016393442623,
      "IP": 61.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 16,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.333,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.867,
      "last_start_IP": 5.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1999,
      "sample_weight": 0.972,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.017,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0203,
      "walk_factor": 1.0107,
      "homer_factor": 1.0205,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.3,
      "bb_percent": 9.7,
      "woba": 0.343,
      "xwoba": 0.332,
      "barrel_percent": 8.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.5,
      "whiff_percent": 29.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 548,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 16.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
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          },
          "per_game": {
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        },
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          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
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          "rates": {
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        },
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          },
          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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            "H_per_IP": 1.03279,
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 2.135,
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        },
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          "form": 4.194,
          "final": 5.0078,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "form": 1.591,
          "final": 2.2259,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 4.646,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 0.662,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.1515,
          "final": 4.1515,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
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          "form": 1.2498,
          "final": 1.2498,
          "source": "form_only"
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    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "hot_streak": false,
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        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
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        "ER": 19,
        "H": 43,
        "BB": 11,
        "SO": 45,
        "HR": 7,
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        "HR9": 1.3795620437956204,
        "games_pitched": 10,
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        "dominant_form": false,
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      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
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      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-16T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9142289301436859,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_size": 16.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7619,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "664299",
      "player_name": "Cristian Javier",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "HOU",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_deboost": null
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
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          {
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 77,
        "losses": 79,
        "win_pct": 0.4936,
        "runs_scored": 688.0,
        "runs_allowed": 747.0,
        "run_differential": -59.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3782,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4103,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7885,
        "offense_index": 0.9844,
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        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 2.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6,
          "run_differential": -18.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1219
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SEA",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 83,
        "win_pct": 0.4679,
        "runs_scored": 634.0,
        "runs_allowed": 690.0,
        "run_differential": -56.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.359,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0641,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4231,
        "offense_index": 0.9071,
        "defense_index": 1.0129,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "win_pct": 0.5,
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          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8,
          "run_differential": 19.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0714
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0505,
        "offense_edge": -0.0156,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0929,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9998,
        "run_prevention": 0.9941,
        "strikeout": 1.0059
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "664299",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "664299",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 243.0,
            "k_percent": 21.3,
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            "xwoba": 0.332,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 40.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 33.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.3767,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.7294,
            "whiff_percent": 29.3,
            "swing_percent": 51.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
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            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3113,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.595,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.05,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
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          "components": {
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            "command_and_miss": 0.1464,
            "regression_edge": 0.3143,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.5929,
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            "hard_hit_edge": 0.6286,
            "whiff_edge": 0.6071,
            "bb_edge": -0.1375,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0808
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "664299",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 82,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 82,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.4152422034201,
              "release_spin_rate": 2322.226121767922,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "pitches": 82,
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                "release_speed": 88.4152422034201,
                "release_spin_rate": 2322.226121767922,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
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                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
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            ],
            "summary": {
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            "components": {
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              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1999,
          "sample_weight": 0.972,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.017,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0203,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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            "factor": 1.0165,
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
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          "predicted_BB": {
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          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0199,
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0197,
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 2,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 100,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -9 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -5."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 3 ER."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260922_HOU@SEA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260922

20260922_HOU@SEA

home

Logan Gilbert

True

5.2

4.0

-5

6/10

1/2

3/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 97,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 97,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.68670804198848,
              "release_spin_rate": 1934.7185998494679,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 97,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.68670804198848,
                "release_spin_rate": 1934.7185998494679,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.6867,
              "release_spin_rate": 1934.7186,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0096,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.0683,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2422,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9794,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0614,
          "walk_factor": 0.947,
          "homer_factor": 1.0545,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.003,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "669302",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9794,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9794,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.947,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0545,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0614,
            "adjusted": 7
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 93,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260922_HOU@SEA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260922

20260922_LAA@OAK

away

Yusei Kikuchi

True

5.0

5.1

-2

5/7

2/1

6/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.023255813953488,
      "WHIP": 1.5523255813953487,
      "IP": 57.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 12,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.778,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.267,
      "last_start_IP": 4.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3402,
      "sample_weight": 0.944,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0289,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0024,
      "walk_factor": 1.0312,
      "homer_factor": 1.0949,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.3,
      "bb_percent": 10.8,
      "woba": 0.347,
      "xwoba": 0.339,
      "barrel_percent": 9.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 44.8,
      "whiff_percent": 25.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 319,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 12.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7059,
        "prior_weight": 0.2941
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "579328",
      "report_date": "20260922",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 12,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.1,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 25.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 118.0,
            "Pitches": 457.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 2.8,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 23.6,
            "Pitches": 91.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.1013,
            "WHIP": 1.519,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4557,
            "H_per_IP": 0.98734,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.53165,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.94937,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1519
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 47.2,
            "ER": 25.0,
            "R": 26.0,
            "H": 47.0,
            "BB": 23.0,
            "SO": 50.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 212.0,
            "Pitches": 847.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.5,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 4.7,
            "BB": 2.3,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 21.2,
            "Pitches": 84.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.7203,
            "WHIP": 1.4685,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.52448,
            "H_per_IP": 0.98601,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.48252,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.04895,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12587
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 12,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 57.1,
            "ER": 32.0,
            "R": 33.0,
            "H": 61.0,
            "BB": 28.0,
            "SO": 58.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 260.0,
            "Pitches": 1024.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.6667,
            "R": 2.75,
            "H": 5.0833,
            "BB": 2.3333,
            "SO": 4.8333,
            "HR": 0.5833,
            "BF": 21.6667,
            "Pitches": 85.3333
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.0233,
            "WHIP": 1.5523,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.55814,
            "H_per_IP": 1.06395,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.48837,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.01163,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12209
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.504,
        "predicted_H": 4.956,
        "predicted_BB": 2.327,
        "predicted_SO": 4.874,
        "predicted_HR": 0.699,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.5279,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4634
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4743,
      "form_weight": 0.5257,
      "form_reliability": 0.7059,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 12.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7059,
        "prior_weight": 0.2941
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.504,
          "final": 3.2135,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.956,
          "final": 4.9769,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.327,
          "final": 2.1719,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.874,
          "final": 5.408,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.699,
          "final": 0.3675,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.5279,
          "final": 4.5279,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4634,
          "final": 1.4634,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 47.2,
        "ER": 25,
        "H": 47,
        "BB": 23,
        "SO": 50,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 4.720279720279721,
        "WHIP": 1.4685314685314685,
        "K9": 9.440559440559442,
        "HR9": 1.132867132867133,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-16T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0311525175052294,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 12.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7059,
          "prior_weight": 0.2941
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "579328",
      "player_name": "Yusei Kikuchi",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "LAA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "percent_delta": null,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "LAA",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 60,
        "losses": 96,
        "win_pct": 0.3846,
        "runs_scored": 625.0,
        "runs_allowed": 712.0,
        "run_differential": -87.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5577,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0064,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5641,
        "offense_index": 0.8932,
        "defense_index": 0.9827,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8,
          "run_differential": -14.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2015
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "OAK",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 61,
        "losses": 95,
        "win_pct": 0.391,
        "runs_scored": 670.0,
        "runs_allowed": 893.0,
        "run_differential": -223.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.4295,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2949,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7244,
        "offense_index": 0.9575,
        "defense_index": 0.7836,
        "current_streak": "L6",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.5,
          "run_differential": -34.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3379
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1364,
        "offense_edge": -0.1068,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0425,
        "defense_strength": -0.0173,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.2164,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0066,
        "run_prevention": 0.9881,
        "strikeout": 1.0075
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "579328",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "579328",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 236.0,
            "k_percent": 22.3,
            "bb_percent": 10.8,
            "woba": 0.347,
            "xwoba": 0.339,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 44.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.817,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 95.4298,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 48.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.15,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3113,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.595,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.05,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.6594,
            "command_and_miss": -0.0543,
            "regression_edge": 0.2286,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.7929,
            "barrel_edge": -0.4667,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.9857,
            "whiff_edge": 0.0071,
            "bb_edge": -0.4125,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.002
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "579328",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 78,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 78,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.89310008708637,
              "release_spin_rate": 2218.1246452962064,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 78,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.89310008708637,
                "release_spin_rate": 2218.1246452962064,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.8931,
              "release_spin_rate": 2218.1246,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.002,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.0143,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3402,
          "sample_weight": 0.944,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0289,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0024,
          "walk_factor": 1.0312,
          "homer_factor": 1.0949,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.008,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "579328",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0273,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0273,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0295,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0896,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0023,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 86,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260922_LAA@OAK.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260922

20260922_LAA@OAK

home

Brady Basso

True

4.1

2.0

-7

5/6

2/2

1/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.5,
      "WHIP": 1.475,
      "IP": 40.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 24,
      "role_avg_IP": 2.444,
      "recent_avg_IP": 2.467,
      "last_start_IP": 2.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0065,
      "sample_weight": 0.64,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9994,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9603,
      "walk_factor": 0.9328,
      "homer_factor": 0.9698,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 15.7,
      "bb_percent": 3.9,
      "woba": 0.349,
      "xwoba": 0.304,
      "barrel_percent": 5.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.7,
      "whiff_percent": 20.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 263,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 8.14,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6195,
        "prior_weight": 0.3805
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669620",
      "report_date": "20260922",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 24,
      "reference_playing_time": 9.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 13.0,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 6.0,
            "H": 17.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 7.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 58.0,
            "Pitches": 215.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.2,
            "ER": 1.2,
            "R": 1.2,
            "H": 3.4,
            "BB": 0.6,
            "SO": 1.4,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 11.6,
            "Pitches": 43.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.1538,
            "WHIP": 1.5385,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46154,
            "H_per_IP": 1.30769,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23077,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.53846,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 21.0,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 27.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 12.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 93.0,
            "Pitches": 326.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.0,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.1,
            "H": 2.7,
            "BB": 0.4,
            "SO": 1.2,
            "HR": 0.1,
            "BF": 9.3,
            "Pitches": 32.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2857,
            "WHIP": 1.4762,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.47619,
            "H_per_IP": 1.28571,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.19048,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.57143,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.04762
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 24,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 40.0,
            "ER": 20.0,
            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 52.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 28.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 178.0,
            "Pitches": 625.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.2,
            "ER": 0.8333,
            "R": 0.875,
            "H": 2.1667,
            "BB": 0.2917,
            "SO": 1.1667,
            "HR": 0.125,
            "BF": 7.4167,
            "Pitches": 26.0417
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5,
            "WHIP": 1.475,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5,
            "H_per_IP": 1.3,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.175,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.7,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.075
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.346,
        "predicted_H": 5.661,
        "predicted_BB": 1.3,
        "predicted_SO": 3.45,
        "predicted_HR": 0.367,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.3909,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4478
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5108,
      "form_weight": 0.4892,
      "form_reliability": 0.6195,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 8.14,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6195,
        "prior_weight": 0.3805
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 9.0,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 7.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 2.346,
          "final": 3.7016,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.661,
          "final": 5.3234,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.3,
          "final": 1.6575,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 3.45,
          "final": 2.1986,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.367,
          "final": 1.2011,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.3909,
          "final": 4.3909,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4478,
          "final": 1.4478,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 21.0,
        "ER": 10,
        "H": 27,
        "BB": 4,
        "SO": 12,
        "HR": 1,
        "ERA": 4.285714285714286,
        "WHIP": 1.4761904761904763,
        "K9": 5.142857142857143,
        "HR9": 0.42857142857142855,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-16T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9878125015624601,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 9.0,
          "predicted_ER": 5.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 1.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 8.14,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.6195,
          "prior_weight": 0.3805
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.1,
          "predicted_ER": 5,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 1,
          "predicted_HR": 2
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669620",
      "player_name": "Brady Basso",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "OAK",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 9.0,
            "predicted_SO": 1.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.1,
            "predicted_SO": 1.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 9.0,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": -4.9,
              "percent_delta": -0.5444,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 9.0,
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              "delta": -4.9,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.1,
            "predicted_R": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 1.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.1,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 9.0,
            "after": 4.1,
            "delta": -4.9,
            "percent_delta": -0.5444,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 9.0,
            "after": 4.1,
            "delta": -4.9,
            "percent_delta": -0.5444,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "OAK",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 61,
        "losses": 95,
        "win_pct": 0.391,
        "runs_scored": 670.0,
        "runs_allowed": 893.0,
        "run_differential": -223.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.4295,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2949,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7244,
        "offense_index": 0.9575,
        "defense_index": 0.7836,
        "current_streak": "L6",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.5,
          "run_differential": -34.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3379
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "LAA",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 60,
        "losses": 96,
        "win_pct": 0.3846,
        "runs_scored": 625.0,
        "runs_allowed": 712.0,
        "run_differential": -87.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5577,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0064,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5641,
        "offense_index": 0.8932,
        "defense_index": 0.9827,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8,
          "run_differential": -14.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2015
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1364,
        "offense_edge": -0.0425,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.1068,
        "defense_strength": -0.2164,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0173,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9923,
        "run_prevention": 1.0114,
        "strikeout": 1.0045
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669620",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669620",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 160.0,
            "k_percent": 15.7,
            "bb_percent": 3.9,
            "woba": 0.349,
            "xwoba": 0.304,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 39.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 35.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.761,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9876,
            "whiff_percent": 20.4,
            "swing_percent": 52.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.15,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3113,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.595,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.05,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.0235,
            "command_and_miss": -0.3686,
            "regression_edge": 1.2857,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.2071,
            "barrel_edge": 0.3556,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.3143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.6643,
            "bb_edge": 1.3125,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1176
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669620",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 36,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 36,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.75756117154422,
              "release_spin_rate": 2227.8675789733616,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 36,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.75756117154422,
                "release_spin_rate": 2227.8675789733616,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.7576,
              "release_spin_rate": 2227.8676,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1176,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.84,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0065,
          "sample_weight": 0.64,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9994,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9603,
          "walk_factor": 0.9328,
          "homer_factor": 0.9698,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.045,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "669620",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9996,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9996,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.957,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9807,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9746,
            "adjusted": 2
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.1,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 1,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 78,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -7 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260922_LAA@OAK.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260922

20260922_MIA@CHC

away

Janson Junk

True

4.2

5.0

-5

6/2

4/1

5/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.5,
      "WHIP": 1.3421052631578947,
      "IP": 114.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 24,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.913,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.067,
      "last_start_IP": 3.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2872,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0244,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9094,
      "walk_factor": 0.945,
      "homer_factor": 1.0125,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 16.0,
      "bb_percent": 6.4,
      "woba": 0.329,
      "xwoba": 0.322,
      "barrel_percent": 7.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.1,
      "whiff_percent": 15.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 235,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "676083",
      "report_date": "20260922",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 24,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 16.2,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 10.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 73.0,
            "Pitches": 280.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.1,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 2.0,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 14.6,
            "Pitches": 56.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.94,
            "WHIP": 1.5,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.66,
            "H_per_IP": 1.2,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.6,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 40.1,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 42.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 171.0,
            "Pitches": 644.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 1.7,
            "R": 1.9,
            "H": 4.2,
            "BB": 1.1,
            "SO": 2.1,
            "HR": 0.3,
            "BF": 17.1,
            "Pitches": 64.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7934,
            "WHIP": 1.314,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42149,
            "H_per_IP": 1.04132,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.27273,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.52066,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07438
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 24,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 114.0,
            "ER": 57.0,
            "R": 62.0,
            "H": 122.0,
            "BB": 31.0,
            "SO": 78.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 487.0,
            "Pitches": 1833.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.375,
            "R": 2.5833,
            "H": 5.0833,
            "BB": 1.2917,
            "SO": 3.25,
            "HR": 0.5833,
            "BF": 20.2917,
            "Pitches": 76.375
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5,
            "WHIP": 1.3421,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5,
            "H_per_IP": 1.07018,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.27193,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.68421,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12281
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.142,
        "predicted_H": 4.354,
        "predicted_BB": 1.195,
        "predicted_SO": 2.582,
        "predicted_HR": 0.446,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.847,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3952
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4228,
      "form_weight": 0.5772,
      "form_reliability": 0.8276,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 4.0,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 2.142,
          "final": 3.3505,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.354,
          "final": 5.05,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.195,
          "final": 2.3811,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 2.582,
          "final": 3.6044,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.446,
          "final": 0.2574,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.847,
          "final": 4.847,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3952,
          "final": 1.3952,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 40.1,
        "ER": 17,
        "H": 42,
        "BB": 11,
        "SO": 21,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 3.7933884297520657,
        "WHIP": 1.3140495867768593,
        "K9": 4.68595041322314,
        "HR9": 0.6694214876033058,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-15T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.923015200277003,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 5.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 24.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8276,
          "prior_weight": 0.1724
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "676083",
      "player_name": "Janson Junk",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_R": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIA",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 76,
        "losses": 80,
        "win_pct": 0.4872,
        "runs_scored": 692.0,
        "runs_allowed": 695.0,
        "run_differential": -3.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0192,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4359,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4551,
        "offense_index": 0.9906,
        "defense_index": 1.0051,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.3,
          "run_differential": -11.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0482
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CHC",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 87,
        "losses": 69,
        "win_pct": 0.5577,
        "runs_scored": 835.0,
        "runs_allowed": 683.0,
        "run_differential": 152.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.9744,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.3526,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3782,
        "offense_index": 1.1954,
        "defense_index": 1.0228,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": 22.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2037
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2519,
        "offense_edge": -0.0094,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1954,
        "defense_strength": 0.0051,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0228,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9823,
        "run_prevention": 1.0433,
        "strikeout": 0.9768
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "676083",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "676083",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 448.0,
            "k_percent": 16.0,
            "bb_percent": 6.4,
            "woba": 0.329,
            "xwoba": 0.322,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 39.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.3958,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.4423,
            "whiff_percent": 15.1,
            "swing_percent": 48.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.15,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3113,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.595,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.05,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1905,
            "command_and_miss": -0.7393,
            "regression_edge": 0.2,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.3071,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0444,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1714,
            "whiff_edge": -1.4214,
            "bb_edge": 0.6875,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1045
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "676083",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 55,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 55,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.99217715516329,
              "release_spin_rate": 2229.370088419328,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 55,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.99217715516329,
                "release_spin_rate": 2229.370088419328,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.9922,
              "release_spin_rate": 2229.3701,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1045,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.7461,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2872,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0244,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9094,
          "walk_factor": 0.945,
          "homer_factor": 1.0125,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.007,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "676083",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0244,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0244,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.945,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0125,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9094,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 105,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -5; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -4."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 5 ER."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260922_MIA@CHC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260922

20260922_MIA@CHC

home

Shota Imanaga

True

5.1

5.0

-1

-2

6/4

1/0

5/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.796039603960396,
      "WHIP": 1.1049504950495048,
      "IP": 168.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 30,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.611,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.0,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1972,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9832,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0391,
      "walk_factor": 0.925,
      "homer_factor": 1.0265,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 24.0,
      "bb_percent": 5.4,
      "woba": 0.31,
      "xwoba": 0.301,
      "barrel_percent": 9.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.3,
      "whiff_percent": 29.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 93,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "684007",
      "report_date": "20260922",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 30,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.0,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 25.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 24.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 105.0,
            "Pitches": 451.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 21.0,
            "Pitches": 90.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.96,
            "WHIP": 1.2,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.96,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.2
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 53.1,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 22.0,
            "H": 49.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 55.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 219.0,
            "Pitches": 907.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.1,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 4.9,
            "BB": 0.9,
            "SO": 5.5,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 21.9,
            "Pitches": 90.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.5437,
            "WHIP": 1.0875,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.39375,
            "H_per_IP": 0.91875,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.16875,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.03125,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.225
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 30,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 168.1,
            "ER": 71.0,
            "R": 73.0,
            "H": 149.0,
            "BB": 37.0,
            "SO": 164.0,
            "HR": 34.0,
            "BF": 683.0,
            "Pitches": 2707.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.3667,
            "R": 2.4333,
            "H": 4.9667,
            "BB": 1.2333,
            "SO": 5.4667,
            "HR": 1.1333,
            "BF": 22.7667,
            "Pitches": 90.2333
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.796,
            "WHIP": 1.105,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42178,
            "H_per_IP": 0.88515,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2198,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.97426,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.20198
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.278,
        "predicted_H": 5.015,
        "predicted_BB": 1.153,
        "predicted_SO": 5.16,
        "predicted_HR": 1.055,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.8969,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1723
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4104,
      "form_weight": 0.5896,
      "form_reliability": 0.8571,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.278,
          "final": 2.9847,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.015,
          "final": 5.4192,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.153,
          "final": 1.0902,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 5.16,
          "final": 4.2736,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.055,
          "final": 1.8532,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.8969,
          "final": 3.8969,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1723,
          "final": 1.1723,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 53.1,
        "ER": 21,
        "H": 49,
        "BB": 9,
        "SO": 55,
        "HR": 12,
        "ERA": 3.5437499999999997,
        "WHIP": 1.0875,
        "K9": 9.28125,
        "HR9": 2.025,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-16T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8892671372604741,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 3.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 30.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8571,
          "prior_weight": 0.1429
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.1,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 6,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "684007",
      "player_name": "Shota Imanaga",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHC",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 3.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": -2.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.6667,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.6667,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 4,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 3,
            "better_metrics": 3,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.6667,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": -2.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.6667,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.1,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.3333,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.6667,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 4,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 3,
          "better_metrics": 3,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.6667,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CHC",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 87,
        "losses": 69,
        "win_pct": 0.5577,
        "runs_scored": 835.0,
        "runs_allowed": 683.0,
        "run_differential": 152.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.9744,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.3526,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3782,
        "offense_index": 1.1954,
        "defense_index": 1.0228,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": 22.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2037
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIA",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 76,
        "losses": 80,
        "win_pct": 0.4872,
        "runs_scored": 692.0,
        "runs_allowed": 695.0,
        "run_differential": -3.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0192,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4359,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4551,
        "offense_index": 0.9906,
        "defense_index": 1.0051,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.3,
          "run_differential": -11.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0482
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2519,
        "offense_edge": 0.1954,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0094,
        "defense_strength": 0.0228,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0051,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0111,
        "run_prevention": 0.9836,
        "strikeout": 1.0083
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "684007",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "684007",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 660.0,
            "k_percent": 24.0,
            "bb_percent": 5.4,
            "woba": 0.31,
            "xwoba": 0.301,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 36.3,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5993,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.7546,
            "whiff_percent": 29.8,
            "swing_percent": 51.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.15,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3113,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.595,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.05,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.074,
            "command_and_miss": 0.56,
            "regression_edge": 0.2571,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.2929,
            "barrel_edge": -0.5556,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.2286,
            "whiff_edge": 0.6786,
            "bb_edge": 0.9375,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1949
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "684007",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 89,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 89,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 86.37721205669526,
              "release_spin_rate": 2035.0429365724972,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 89,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 86.37721205669526,
                "release_spin_rate": 2035.0429365724972,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 86.3772,
              "release_spin_rate": 2035.0429,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1949,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.3921,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1972,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9832,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0391,
          "walk_factor": 0.925,
          "homer_factor": 1.0265,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.009,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "684007",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9832,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9832,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.925,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0265,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0391,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 89,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260922_MIA@CHC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260922

20260922_MIL@PHI

away

Dustin May

True

4.2

2.0

-8

2/1

2/2

4/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.606635071090047,
      "WHIP": 1.3151658767772512,
      "IP": 140.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 29,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.851,
      "recent_avg_IP": 3.333,
      "last_start_IP": 2.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1546,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0131,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9951,
      "walk_factor": 0.973,
      "homer_factor": 1.0505,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.9,
      "bb_percent": 7.8,
      "woba": 0.315,
      "xwoba": 0.322,
      "barrel_percent": 7.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 44.2,
      "whiff_percent": 23.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 278,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669160",
      "report_date": "20260922",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 29,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 16.2,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 19.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 19.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 76.0,
            "Pitches": 308.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.1,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 3.8,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 15.2,
            "Pitches": 61.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.86,
            "WHIP": 1.44,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.54,
            "H_per_IP": 1.14,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.14,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 42.2,
            "ER": 20.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 41.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 42.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 185.0,
            "Pitches": 713.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.1,
            "BB": 1.5,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 18.5,
            "Pitches": 71.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2188,
            "WHIP": 1.3125,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46875,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96094,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35156,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.98438,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11719
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 29,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 140.2,
            "ER": 72.0,
            "R": 75.0,
            "H": 138.0,
            "BB": 47.0,
            "SO": 137.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 599.0,
            "Pitches": 2305.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.4828,
            "R": 2.5862,
            "H": 4.7586,
            "BB": 1.6207,
            "SO": 4.7241,
            "HR": 0.4138,
            "BF": 20.6552,
            "Pitches": 79.4828
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.6066,
            "WHIP": 1.3152,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.51185,
            "H_per_IP": 0.98104,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33412,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.97393,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08531
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.095,
        "predicted_H": 4.26,
        "predicted_BB": 1.367,
        "predicted_SO": 4.258,
        "predicted_HR": 0.578,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.5855,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3684
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4121,
      "form_weight": 0.5879,
      "form_reliability": 0.8529,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 4.0,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.095,
          "final": 2.0558,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.26,
          "final": 3.3285,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.367,
          "final": 1.6279,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.258,
          "final": 4.1517,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.578,
          "final": 0.3398,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.5855,
          "final": 4.5855,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3684,
          "final": 1.3684,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 42.2,
        "ER": 20,
        "H": 41,
        "BB": 15,
        "SO": 42,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 4.218749999999999,
        "WHIP": 1.3124999999999998,
        "K9": 8.859374999999998,
        "HR9": 1.0546874999999998,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-18T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9708296372604741,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
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        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 29.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8529,
          "prior_weight": 0.1471
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669160",
      "player_name": "Dustin May",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
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              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "percent_delta": null,
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIL",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 98,
        "losses": 58,
        "win_pct": 0.6282,
        "runs_scored": 802.0,
        "runs_allowed": 600.0,
        "run_differential": 202.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.2949,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.141,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8462,
        "offense_index": 1.1449,
        "defense_index": 1.1675,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.6,
          "run_differential": 32.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3726
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 86,
        "losses": 70,
        "win_pct": 0.5513,
        "runs_scored": 697.0,
        "runs_allowed": 668.0,
        "run_differential": 29.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1859,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4679,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2821,
        "offense_index": 0.995,
        "defense_index": 1.0487,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8,
          "run_differential": -9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0314
      },
      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": 0.1449,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.005,
        "defense_strength": 0.1675,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0487,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.4
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0189,
        "run_prevention": 0.9654,
        "strikeout": 1.0106
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669160",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669160",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 581.0,
            "k_percent": 22.9,
            "bb_percent": 7.8,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.322,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 44.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.1537,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.6072,
            "whiff_percent": 23.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.15,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3113,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.595,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.05,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.2811,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0393,
            "regression_edge": -0.2,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.3071,
            "barrel_edge": -0.0667,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.9,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2643,
            "bb_edge": 0.3375,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1573
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669160",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 60,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 60,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.66624874445156,
              "release_spin_rate": 2536.673286155761,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 60,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.66624874445156,
                "release_spin_rate": 2536.673286155761,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.6662,
              "release_spin_rate": 2536.6733,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1573,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.1235,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1546,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0131,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9951,
          "walk_factor": 0.973,
          "homer_factor": 1.0505,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.007,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "669160",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0131,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0131,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.973,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0505,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9951,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 85,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -8 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260922_MIL@PHI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260922

20260922_MIL@PHI

home

Zack Wheeler

True

6.0

5.2

-1

5/5

3/1

7/11

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.9933481152993346,
      "WHIP": 1.057649667405765,
      "IP": 150.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.782,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.0,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.7042,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9401,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0769,
      "walk_factor": 0.971,
      "homer_factor": 0.9314,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 29.5,
      "bb_percent": 7.7,
      "woba": 0.28,
      "xwoba": 0.268,
      "barrel_percent": 6.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.5,
      "whiff_percent": 30.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 8,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "554430",
      "report_date": "20260922",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.0,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 25.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 33.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 125.0,
            "Pitches": 507.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 2.6,
            "SO": 6.6,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 25.0,
            "Pitches": 101.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.3,
            "WHIP": 1.2667,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.36667,
            "H_per_IP": 0.83333,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.43333,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.1,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16667
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 50.1,
            "ER": 26.0,
            "R": 27.0,
            "H": 47.0,
            "BB": 24.0,
            "SO": 60.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 219.0,
            "Pitches": 905.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.7,
            "H": 4.7,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 6.0,
            "HR": 0.9,
            "BF": 21.9,
            "Pitches": 90.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.649,
            "WHIP": 1.4106,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.51656,
            "H_per_IP": 0.93377,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.47682,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.19205,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17881
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 150.1,
            "ER": 50.0,
            "R": 51.0,
            "H": 113.0,
            "BB": 46.0,
            "SO": 177.0,
            "HR": 20.0,
            "BF": 599.0,
            "Pitches": 2451.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.9231,
            "R": 1.9615,
            "H": 4.3462,
            "BB": 1.7692,
            "SO": 6.8077,
            "HR": 0.7692,
            "BF": 23.0385,
            "Pitches": 94.2692
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.9933,
            "WHIP": 1.0576,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33259,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75166,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30599,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.17738,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13304
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.419,
        "predicted_H": 4.932,
        "predicted_BB": 2.348,
        "predicted_SO": 6.294,
        "predicted_HR": 0.914,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.8525,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2883
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4181,
      "form_weight": 0.5819,
      "form_reliability": 0.8387,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 2.419,
          "final": 3.4982,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.932,
          "final": 4.9604,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.348,
          "final": 2.6206,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 6.294,
          "final": 6.5892,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.914,
          "final": 0.5318,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.8525,
          "final": 3.8525,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2883,
          "final": 1.2883,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 50.1,
        "ER": 26,
        "H": 47,
        "BB": 24,
        "SO": 60,
        "HR": 9,
        "ERA": 4.6490066225165565,
        "WHIP": 1.4105960264900663,
        "K9": 10.728476821192054,
        "HR9": 1.6092715231788082,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-16T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0216859079558385,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 5.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 26.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8387,
          "prior_weight": 0.1613
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 0
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "554430",
      "player_name": "Zack Wheeler",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PHI",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -2.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.4,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 5.0,
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              "delta": -2.0,
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              "projection_effect": "better",
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -2.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.4,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -2.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.4,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 86,
        "losses": 70,
        "win_pct": 0.5513,
        "runs_scored": 697.0,
        "runs_allowed": 668.0,
        "run_differential": 29.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1859,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4679,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2821,
        "offense_index": 0.995,
        "defense_index": 1.0487,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8,
          "run_differential": -9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0314
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIL",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 98,
        "losses": 58,
        "win_pct": 0.6282,
        "runs_scored": 802.0,
        "runs_allowed": 600.0,
        "run_differential": 202.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.2949,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.141,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8462,
        "offense_index": 1.1449,
        "defense_index": 1.1675,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.6,
          "run_differential": 32.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3726
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.3412,
        "offense_edge": -0.005,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1449,
        "defense_strength": 0.0487,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1675,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.4
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.982,
        "run_prevention": 1.0354,
        "strikeout": 0.9782
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "554430",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "554430",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 573.0,
            "k_percent": 29.5,
            "bb_percent": 7.7,
            "woba": 0.28,
            "xwoba": 0.268,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 35.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 74.3749,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.4483,
            "whiff_percent": 30.9,
            "swing_percent": 49.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.15,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3113,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.595,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.05,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.7977,
            "command_and_miss": 0.8536,
            "regression_edge": 0.3429,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.2357,
            "barrel_edge": 0.2222,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.3429,
            "whiff_edge": 0.8357,
            "bb_edge": 0.3625,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0159
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "554430",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 102,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 102,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.1409528401879,
              "release_spin_rate": 2371.990133014401,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 102,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.1409528401879,
                "release_spin_rate": 2371.990133014401,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.141,
              "release_spin_rate": 2371.9901,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0159,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.1134,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.7042,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9401,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0769,
          "walk_factor": 0.971,
          "homer_factor": 0.9314,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.012,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "554430",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9401,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9401,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.971,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9314,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0769,
            "adjusted": 8
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 103,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260922_MIL@PHI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260922

20260922_MIN@SF

away

Taj Bradley

True

6.0

-2

2/3

3/3

6/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.8123791102514506,
      "WHIP": 1.230174081237911,
      "IP": 172.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 30,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.744,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.333,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0003,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.046,
      "walk_factor": 1.019,
      "homer_factor": 1.0766,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 27.5,
      "bb_percent": 10.1,
      "woba": 0.297,
      "xwoba": 0.307,
      "barrel_percent": 9.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 45.1,
      "whiff_percent": 27.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 18,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
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        },
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      "blend_segments": {},
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "hot_streak": false,
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      "pitching": {
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      "fielding": {
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-17T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.9511245252662546,
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        "stats": {
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "step": "current_json_final",
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          "stats": {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "changed_metrics": [
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "win_pct": 0.465,
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        "run_differential": -67.0,
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      "opponent": {
        "team": "SF",
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      "edges": {
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      "player_factors": {
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      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "671737",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "671737",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "league_medians": {
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            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
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          "components": {
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            "xwoba_edge": 0.1214,
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "671737",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 93,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 93,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
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              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "pitches": 93,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.9482,
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            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
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          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "671737",
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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          "predicted_H": {
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    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 106,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
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  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260922_MIN@SF.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260922

20260922_MIN@SF

home

Anthony Molina

True

5.0

6.0

-1

4/4

2/1

7/6

Last 10 before this game (8 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "IP": 28.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 8,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.667,
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      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
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      "barrel_percent": 7.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.6,
      "whiff_percent": 23.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 432,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
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    "starter_workload_floor": {
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            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0534,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.3813,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0259,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9978,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.997,
          "walk_factor": 0.9654,
          "homer_factor": 0.9986,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.015,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "683627",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.999,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.999,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9844,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9994,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9987,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 95,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 8 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260922_MIN@SF.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260922

20260922_NYM@TEX

away

Sean Manaea

True

5.2

6.0

3/3

4/2

6/9

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.737980769230769,
      "WHIP": 1.3197115384615385,
      "IP": 138.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 31,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.627,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.533,
      "last_start_IP": 5.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3478,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0296,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9837,
      "walk_factor": 0.953,
      "homer_factor": 1.1084,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.0,
      "bb_percent": 6.8,
      "woba": 0.348,
      "xwoba": 0.337,
      "barrel_percent": 10.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.5,
      "whiff_percent": 22.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 553,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "640455",
      "report_date": "20260922",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 31,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.2,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 33.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 19.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 120.0,
            "Pitches": 402.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 4.2,
            "R": 4.2,
            "H": 6.6,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 1.4,
            "BF": 24.0,
            "Pitches": 80.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.8313,
            "WHIP": 1.3373,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.75904,
            "H_per_IP": 1.19277,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.14458,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.68675,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.25301
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 59.0,
            "ER": 31.0,
            "R": 31.0,
            "H": 60.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 51.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 248.0,
            "Pitches": 859.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 3.1,
            "R": 3.1,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 1.5,
            "SO": 5.1,
            "HR": 1.1,
            "BF": 24.8,
            "Pitches": 85.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.7288,
            "WHIP": 1.2712,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.52542,
            "H_per_IP": 1.01695,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25424,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.86441,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18644
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 31,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 138.2,
            "ER": 73.0,
            "R": 80.0,
            "H": 142.0,
            "BB": 41.0,
            "SO": 132.0,
            "HR": 23.0,
            "BF": 601.0,
            "Pitches": 2294.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 2.3548,
            "R": 2.5806,
            "H": 4.5806,
            "BB": 1.3226,
            "SO": 4.2581,
            "HR": 0.7419,
            "BF": 19.3871,
            "Pitches": 74.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.738,
            "WHIP": 1.3197,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.52644,
            "H_per_IP": 1.02404,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.29567,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.95192,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16587
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 3.4,
        "predicted_H": 5.987,
        "predicted_BB": 1.306,
        "predicted_SO": 4.545,
        "predicted_HR": 1.127,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.5257,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.317
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4087,
      "form_weight": 0.5913,
      "form_reliability": 0.8611,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 3.4,
          "final": 2.4192,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 5.987,
          "final": 4.7663,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.306,
          "final": 2.407,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.545,
          "final": 4.731,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.127,
          "final": 0.6664,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.5257,
          "final": 5.5257,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.317,
          "final": 1.317,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 59.0,
        "ER": 31,
        "H": 60,
        "BB": 15,
        "SO": 51,
        "HR": 11,
        "ERA": 4.728813559322034,
        "WHIP": 1.271186440677966,
        "K9": 7.779661016949152,
        "HR9": 1.6779661016949152,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-15T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.027178948701152,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 31.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8611,
          "prior_weight": 0.1389
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "640455",
      "player_name": "Sean Manaea",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "NYM",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
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              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.2,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": {
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            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
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              "delta": -0.4667,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": {
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          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "NYM",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 71,
        "losses": 85,
        "win_pct": 0.4551,
        "runs_scored": 668.0,
        "runs_allowed": 709.0,
        "run_differential": -41.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2628,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2821,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5449,
        "offense_index": 0.9563,
        "defense_index": 0.9852,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": -1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1404
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TEX",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 78,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.5,
        "runs_scored": 653.0,
        "runs_allowed": 687.0,
        "run_differential": -34.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2179,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1859,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4038,
        "offense_index": 0.9348,
        "defense_index": 1.0168,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": 6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0082
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1486,
        "offense_edge": -0.0437,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0652,
        "defense_strength": -0.0148,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0168,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9962,
        "run_prevention": 0.9985,
        "strikeout": 1.0008
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "640455",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "640455",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 578.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 6.8,
            "woba": 0.348,
            "xwoba": 0.337,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 10.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 41.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5935,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.6278,
            "whiff_percent": 22.1,
            "swing_percent": 50.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.15,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3113,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.595,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.05,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.6299,
            "command_and_miss": -0.0236,
            "regression_edge": 0.3143,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.7357,
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            "hard_hit_edge": -0.5143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4214,
            "bb_edge": 0.5875,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.254
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "640455",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 85,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 85,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 85.32242397875616,
              "release_spin_rate": 2105.383936655872,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 85,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 85.32242397875616,
                "release_spin_rate": 2105.383936655872,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 85.3224,
              "release_spin_rate": 2105.3839,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.254,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.814,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3478,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0296,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9837,
          "walk_factor": 0.953,
          "homer_factor": 1.1084,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.011,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "640455",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0296,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0296,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.953,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.1084,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9837,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 108,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260922_NYM@TEX.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260922

20260922_NYM@TEX

home

MacKenzie Gore

True

4.2

5.0

-1

3/4

1/1

3/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "WHIP": 1.352112676056338,
      "IP": 165.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 32,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.177,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.0,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0126,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9989,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0146,
      "walk_factor": 1.009,
      "homer_factor": 1.0378,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.9,
      "bb_percent": 9.6,
      "woba": 0.319,
      "xwoba": 0.311,
      "barrel_percent": 8.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 40.5,
      "whiff_percent": 25.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 204,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
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      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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        "data_weight": 0.8649,
        "prior_weight": 0.1351
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669022",
      "report_date": "20260922",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 32,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 20.0,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 28.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 11.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 101.0,
            "Pitches": 391.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 3.4,
            "R": 3.4,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 3.4,
            "SO": 2.2,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 20.2,
            "Pitches": 78.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.65,
            "WHIP": 2.25,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.85,
            "H_per_IP": 1.4,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.85,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.55,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.05
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 50.0,
            "ER": 24.0,
            "R": 24.0,
            "H": 48.0,
            "BB": 25.0,
            "SO": 45.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 222.0,
            "Pitches": 887.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 2.5,
            "SO": 4.5,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 22.2,
            "Pitches": 88.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.32,
            "WHIP": 1.46,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.48,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.5,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.9,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 32,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 165.2,
            "ER": 86.0,
            "R": 86.0,
            "H": 155.0,
            "BB": 69.0,
            "SO": 172.0,
            "HR": 19.0,
            "BF": 720.0,
            "Pitches": 2860.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.6875,
            "R": 2.6875,
            "H": 4.8438,
            "BB": 2.1562,
            "SO": 5.375,
            "HR": 0.5938,
            "BF": 22.5,
            "Pitches": 89.375
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.672,
            "WHIP": 1.3521,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.51911,
            "H_per_IP": 0.93561,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.4165,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.03823,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11469
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.935,
        "predicted_H": 5.224,
        "predicted_BB": 2.797,
        "predicted_SO": 3.665,
        "predicted_HR": 0.415,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.7133,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.7348
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4071,
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      "form_reliability": 0.8649,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
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          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.935,
          "final": 2.5544,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "form": 5.224,
          "final": 4.3187,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.797,
          "final": 2.0655,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 3.665,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 0.415,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "final": 5.7133,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
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          "final": 1.7348,
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
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        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 50.0,
        "ER": 24,
        "H": 48,
        "BB": 25,
        "SO": 45,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 4.32,
        "WHIP": 1.46,
        "K9": 8.1,
        "HR9": 0.9,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-16T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9859077622604742,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 32.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669022",
      "player_name": "MacKenzie Gore",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TEX",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
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              "percent_delta": -0.1,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
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          {
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          {
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          {
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        ],
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            "material": true
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TEX",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 78,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.5,
        "runs_scored": 653.0,
        "runs_allowed": 687.0,
        "run_differential": -34.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2179,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1859,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4038,
        "offense_index": 0.9348,
        "defense_index": 1.0168,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": 6.0
        },
        "available": true,
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      },
      "opponent": {
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        "losses": 85,
        "win_pct": 0.4551,
        "runs_scored": 668.0,
        "runs_allowed": 709.0,
        "run_differential": -41.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2628,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2821,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5449,
        "offense_index": 0.9563,
        "defense_index": 0.9852,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
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          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": -1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1404
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1486,
        "offense_edge": -0.0652,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0437,
        "defense_strength": 0.0168,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0148,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0082,
        "run_prevention": 0.9839,
        "strikeout": 1.008
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669022",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669022",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 699.0,
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            "woba": 0.319,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 40.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.3062,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.4164,
            "whiff_percent": 25.6,
            "swing_percent": 48.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.15,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3113,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.595,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.05,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.0834,
            "command_and_miss": 0.1336,
            "regression_edge": 0.2286,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.0071,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2889,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.3714,
            "whiff_edge": 0.0786,
            "bb_edge": -0.1125,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0212
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669022",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 85,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 85,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.23611334556708,
              "release_spin_rate": 2168.650138380656,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 85,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.23611334556708,
                "release_spin_rate": 2168.650138380656,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.2361,
              "release_spin_rate": 2168.6501,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0212,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.1515,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0126,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9989,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0146,
          "walk_factor": 1.009,
          "homer_factor": 1.0378,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.008,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "669022",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9989,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9989,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.009,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0378,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0146,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 18,
      "Pitches": 77,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260922_NYM@TEX.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260922

20260922_SD@LAD

away

Michael King

True

6.0

4.0

-6

8/6

2/2

3/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.0331491712707184,
      "WHIP": 1.160220994475138,
      "IP": 181.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 31,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.839,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.4,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0825,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.007,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9917,
      "walk_factor": 1.001,
      "homer_factor": 1.0,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 20.9,
      "bb_percent": 9.2,
      "woba": 0.292,
      "xwoba": 0.321,
      "barrel_percent": 8.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 32.7,
      "whiff_percent": 24.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 12,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "650633",
      "report_date": "20260922",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 31,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 32.0,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 5.0,
            "H": 25.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 26.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 126.0,
            "Pitches": 490.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.0,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 25.2,
            "Pitches": 98.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.4062,
            "WHIP": 1.0938,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.15625,
            "H_per_IP": 0.78125,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3125,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.8125,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0625
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 61.2,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 51.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 51.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 245.0,
            "Pitches": 968.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.9,
            "H": 5.1,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 5.1,
            "HR": 0.9,
            "BF": 24.5,
            "Pitches": 96.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.627,
            "WHIP": 1.1351,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.29189,
            "H_per_IP": 0.82703,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30811,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.82703,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14595
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 31,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 181.0,
            "ER": 61.0,
            "R": 63.0,
            "H": 142.0,
            "BB": 68.0,
            "SO": 154.0,
            "HR": 20.0,
            "BF": 736.0,
            "Pitches": 2900.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.9677,
            "R": 2.0323,
            "H": 4.5806,
            "BB": 2.1935,
            "SO": 4.9677,
            "HR": 0.6452,
            "BF": 23.7419,
            "Pitches": 93.5484
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0331,
            "WHIP": 1.1602,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33702,
            "H_per_IP": 0.78453,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37569,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.85083,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1105
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.7,
        "predicted_H": 5.046,
        "predicted_BB": 2.028,
        "predicted_SO": 5.154,
        "predicted_HR": 0.661,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.4964,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1542
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4087,
      "form_weight": 0.5913,
      "form_reliability": 0.8611,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.7,
          "final": 2.64,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 5.046,
          "final": 6.2533,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.028,
          "final": 2.0166,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 5.154,
          "final": 4.2737,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.661,
          "final": 0.7995,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.4964,
          "final": 2.4964,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1542,
          "final": 1.1542,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 61.2,
        "ER": 18,
        "H": 51,
        "BB": 19,
        "SO": 51,
        "HR": 9,
        "ERA": 2.627027027027027,
        "WHIP": 1.135135135135135,
        "K9": 7.443243243243242,
        "HR9": 1.3135135135135134,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 8,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-17T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7873266811793931,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 8.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 31.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8611,
          "prior_weight": 0.1389
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 8,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "650633",
      "player_name": "Michael King",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.6667,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 2,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.6667,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -2.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.4,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -2.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.4,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 8.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SD",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 87,
        "losses": 69,
        "win_pct": 0.5577,
        "runs_scored": 690.0,
        "runs_allowed": 649.0,
        "run_differential": 41.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2628,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4231,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1603,
        "offense_index": 0.9861,
        "defense_index": 1.0781,
        "current_streak": "W5",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 9,
          "losses": 1,
          "win_pct": 0.9,
          "avg_runs_scored": 7.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": 24.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2213
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "LAD",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 96,
        "losses": 60,
        "win_pct": 0.6154,
        "runs_scored": 780.0,
        "runs_allowed": 587.0,
        "run_differential": 193.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.2372,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7628,
        "offense_index": 1.1147,
        "defense_index": 1.192,
        "current_streak": "W4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.8,
          "run_differential": 24.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3198
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0985,
        "offense_edge": -0.0139,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1147,
        "defense_strength": 0.0781,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.192,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9938,
        "run_prevention": 1.0155,
        "strikeout": 0.9879
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "650633",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "650633",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 705.0,
            "k_percent": 20.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.292,
            "xwoba": 0.321,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 32.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.915,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.083,
            "whiff_percent": 24.6,
            "swing_percent": 46.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.15,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3113,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.595,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.05,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0493,
            "command_and_miss": -0.0893,
            "regression_edge": -0.8286,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.2786,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2667,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.7429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.0643,
            "bb_edge": -0.0125,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0499
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "650633",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 97,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 97,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.9666257983146,
              "release_spin_rate": 2288.299466647343,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 97,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.9666257983146,
                "release_spin_rate": 2288.299466647343,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.9666,
              "release_spin_rate": 2288.2995,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0499,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.3563,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0825,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.007,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9917,
          "walk_factor": 1.001,
          "homer_factor": 1.0,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.029,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "650633",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.007,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.007,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.001,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9917,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 8,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 29,
      "Pitches": 120,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -6 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260922_SD@LAD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260922

20260922_SD@LAD

home

Brock Stewart

True

4.1

1.0

-10

-2

3/1

4/0

5/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.189189189189189,
      "WHIP": 0.9324324324324323,
      "IP": 24.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 0.987,
      "recent_avg_IP": 0.933,
      "last_start_IP": 0.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.4256,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9638,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0148,
      "walk_factor": 1.0041,
      "homer_factor": 0.9241,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 24.5,
      "bb_percent": 9.6,
      "woba": 0.248,
      "xwoba": 0.245,
      "barrel_percent": 4.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 25.8,
      "whiff_percent": 28.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 254,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 5.02,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.501,
        "prior_weight": 0.499
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "592779",
      "report_date": "20260922",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 25,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 0.0,
            "R": 0.0,
            "H": 2.0,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 15.0,
            "Pitches": 68.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.0,
            "R": 0.0,
            "H": 0.4,
            "BB": 0.2,
            "SO": 0.8,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 3.0,
            "Pitches": 13.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 0.0,
            "WHIP": 0.6429,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.0,
            "H_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21429,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.85714,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 9.0,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 8.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 7.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 35.0,
            "Pitches": 123.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.2,
            "R": 0.3,
            "H": 0.8,
            "BB": 0.4,
            "SO": 0.7,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 3.5,
            "Pitches": 12.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.0,
            "WHIP": 1.3333,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.22222,
            "H_per_IP": 0.88889,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.44444,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.77778,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 25,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.2,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 14.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 93.0,
            "Pitches": 351.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.24,
            "R": 0.32,
            "H": 0.56,
            "BB": 0.36,
            "SO": 0.92,
            "HR": 0.08,
            "BF": 3.72,
            "Pitches": 14.04
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.1892,
            "WHIP": 0.9324,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.24324,
            "H_per_IP": 0.56757,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36486,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.93243,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08108
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 2.2,
        "predicted_ER": 0.846,
        "predicted_H": 2.127,
        "predicted_BB": 0.933,
        "predicted_SO": 2.373,
        "predicted_HR": 0.22,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.86,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.149
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5608,
      "form_weight": 0.4392,
      "form_reliability": 0.501,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 5.02,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.501,
        "prior_weight": 0.499
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.1,
          "form": 2.2,
          "final": 3.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.846,
          "final": 1.4932,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.127,
          "final": 2.6166,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 0.933,
          "final": 2.6531,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 2.373,
          "final": 3.8463,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.22,
          "final": 0.6574,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.86,
          "final": 2.86,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.149,
          "final": 1.149,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 8.1,
        "ER": 2,
        "H": 8,
        "BB": 4,
        "SO": 6,
        "HR": 0,
        "ERA": 2.16,
        "WHIP": 1.4400000000000002,
        "K9": 6.480000000000001,
        "HR9": 0.0,
        "games_pitched": 9,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-20T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9289927210843056,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 5.02,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.501,
          "prior_weight": 0.499
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "592779",
      "player_name": "Brock Stewart",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "LAD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.1,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0538,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0538,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.3333,
            "after": 4.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0538,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.3333,
            "after": 4.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0538,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "LAD",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 96,
        "losses": 60,
        "win_pct": 0.6154,
        "runs_scored": 780.0,
        "runs_allowed": 587.0,
        "run_differential": 193.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.2372,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7628,
        "offense_index": 1.1147,
        "defense_index": 1.192,
        "current_streak": "W4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.8,
          "run_differential": 24.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3198
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SD",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 87,
        "losses": 69,
        "win_pct": 0.5577,
        "runs_scored": 690.0,
        "runs_allowed": 649.0,
        "run_differential": 41.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2628,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4231,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1603,
        "offense_index": 0.9861,
        "defense_index": 1.0781,
        "current_streak": "W5",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 9,
          "losses": 1,
          "win_pct": 0.9,
          "avg_runs_scored": 7.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": 24.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2213
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0985,
        "offense_edge": 0.1147,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0139,
        "defense_strength": 0.192,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0781,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0103,
        "run_prevention": 0.9737,
        "strikeout": 1.0041
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "592779",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "592779",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 86.0,
            "k_percent": 24.5,
            "bb_percent": 9.6,
            "woba": 0.248,
            "xwoba": 0.245,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 24.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 4.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 25.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 66.3437,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 92.2968,
            "whiff_percent": 28.2,
            "swing_percent": 49.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.15,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3113,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.595,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.05,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 1.5205,
            "command_and_miss": 0.3021,
            "regression_edge": 0.0857,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.8929,
            "barrel_edge": 0.5333,
            "hard_hit_edge": 1.7286,
            "whiff_edge": 0.45,
            "bb_edge": -0.1125,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0883
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "592779",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 10,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 10,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 91.43371502899491,
              "release_spin_rate": 2369.028774217187,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 10,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 91.43371502899491,
                "release_spin_rate": 2369.028774217187,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.4337,
              "release_spin_rate": 2369.0288,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0883,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.6305,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.4256,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9638,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0148,
          "walk_factor": 1.0041,
          "homer_factor": 0.9241,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.003,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "592779",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9837,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9837,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0018,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9658,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0067,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.1,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 92,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -10 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260922_SD@LAD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260922

20260922_STL@PIT

away

Andre Pallante

True

5.1

6.0

-1

2/3

1/2

10/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.6953642384105962,
      "WHIP": 1.2582781456953642,
      "IP": 151.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.593,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.4,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0286,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9976,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9471,
      "walk_factor": 0.967,
      "homer_factor": 0.936,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 16.5,
      "bb_percent": 7.5,
      "woba": 0.301,
      "xwoba": 0.309,
      "barrel_percent": 4.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.2,
      "whiff_percent": 21.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 73,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669467",
      "report_date": "20260922",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.0,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 29.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 14.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 112.0,
            "Pitches": 444.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 2.8,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 22.4,
            "Pitches": 88.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.0,
            "WHIP": 1.4444,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44444,
            "H_per_IP": 1.07407,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37037,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.51852,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03704
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 56.0,
            "ER": 24.0,
            "R": 26.0,
            "H": 54.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 34.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 231.0,
            "Pitches": 912.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 3.4,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 23.1,
            "Pitches": 91.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8571,
            "WHIP": 1.3214,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96429,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35714,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.60714,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03571
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 27,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 151.0,
            "ER": 62.0,
            "R": 66.0,
            "H": 143.0,
            "BB": 47.0,
            "SO": 104.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 629.0,
            "Pitches": 2462.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.2963,
            "R": 2.4444,
            "H": 5.2963,
            "BB": 1.7407,
            "SO": 3.8519,
            "HR": 0.4074,
            "BF": 23.2963,
            "Pitches": 91.1852
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6954,
            "WHIP": 1.2583,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4106,
            "H_per_IP": 0.94702,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31126,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.68874,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07285
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.438,
        "predicted_H": 5.519,
        "predicted_BB": 1.961,
        "predicted_SO": 3.506,
        "predicted_HR": 0.33,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.9984,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3629
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.416,
      "form_weight": 0.584,
      "form_reliability": 0.8438,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.438,
          "final": 2.2558,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 5.519,
          "final": 4.0551,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.961,
          "final": 1.5612,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 10.0,
          "form": 3.506,
          "final": 6.2075,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.33,
          "final": 1.0247,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.9984,
          "final": 3.9984,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3629,
          "final": 1.3629,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 56.0,
        "ER": 24,
        "H": 54,
        "BB": 20,
        "SO": 34,
        "HR": 2,
        "ERA": 3.857142857142857,
        "WHIP": 1.3214285714285714,
        "K9": 5.464285714285714,
        "HR9": 0.32142857142857145,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-15T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9303720479747599,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 10.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 27.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8438,
          "prior_weight": 0.1562
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669467",
      "player_name": "Andre Pallante",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "STL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 10.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 10.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
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          ],
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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            "material": true
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    },
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          "pitcher_id": "669467",
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          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
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            "pitcher_id": "669467",
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            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 89,
            "primary_pitch": {
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              "pitches": 89,
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              "release_pos_x": null,
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
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  ],
  "provenance": {
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    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260922

20260922_STL@PIT

home

Jared Jones

True

5.0

7.0

-1

3/1

0/0

4/9

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

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    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
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      "fielding": {
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      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-16T00:00:00"
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        "stats": {
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "683003",
      "player_name": "Jared Jones",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PIT",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "PIT",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 79,
        "losses": 77,
        "win_pct": 0.5064,
        "runs_scored": 748.0,
        "runs_allowed": 719.0,
        "run_differential": 29.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1859,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7949,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.609,
        "offense_index": 1.0691,
        "defense_index": 0.9731,
        "current_streak": "W4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6,
          "run_differential": -5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0632
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "STL",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 76,
        "losses": 80,
        "win_pct": 0.4872,
        "runs_scored": 704.0,
        "runs_allowed": 727.0,
        "run_differential": -23.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1474,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5128,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6603,
        "offense_index": 1.0062,
        "defense_index": 0.9624,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.4,
          "run_differential": -12.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.064
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1272,
        "offense_edge": 0.0691,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0062,
        "defense_strength": -0.0269,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0376,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.004,
        "run_prevention": 0.9973,
        "strikeout": 1.0033
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "683003",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "683003",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 356.0,
            "k_percent": 28.7,
            "bb_percent": 8.2,
            "woba": 0.3,
            "xwoba": 0.287,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.645,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.1422,
            "whiff_percent": 32.5,
            "swing_percent": 48.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.15,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3113,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.595,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.05,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.2788,
            "command_and_miss": 0.8571,
            "regression_edge": 0.3714,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.6929,
            "barrel_edge": -0.0889,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1143,
            "whiff_edge": 1.0643,
            "bb_edge": 0.2375,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.2169
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "683003",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 87,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 87,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 93.73058494859055,
              "release_spin_rate": 2516.3391420607936,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 87,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 93.73058494859055,
                "release_spin_rate": 2516.3391420607936,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 93.7306,
              "release_spin_rate": 2516.3391,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.2169,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.5492,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.4335,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9632,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0814,
          "walk_factor": 0.981,
          "homer_factor": 0.9909,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.013,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "683003",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9632,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9632,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.981,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9909,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0814,
            "adjusted": 8
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 18,
      "Pitches": 76,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by +6 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260922_STL@PIT.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260922

20260922_TB@NYY

away

Nick Martinez

Drew Rasmussen

False

6.0

6.2

5/1

0/3

5/11

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.941634241245136,
      "WHIP": 1.0680933852140078,
      "IP": 171.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 29,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.908,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.933,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0706,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.006,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9151,
      "walk_factor": 0.887,
      "homer_factor": 0.9595,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 14.8,
      "bb_percent": 3.5,
      "woba": 0.29,
      "xwoba": 0.309,
      "barrel_percent": 6.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 32.7,
      "whiff_percent": 17.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 20,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "607259",
      "report_date": "20260922",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 29,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 29.2,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 18.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 108.0,
            "Pitches": 397.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 0.4,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 21.6,
            "Pitches": 79.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.427,
            "WHIP": 0.7416,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.26966,
            "H_per_IP": 0.67416,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.06742,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.60674,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13483
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 60.0,
            "ER": 24.0,
            "R": 24.0,
            "H": 54.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 39.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 230.0,
            "Pitches": 816.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 0.4,
            "SO": 3.9,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 23.0,
            "Pitches": 81.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6,
            "WHIP": 0.9667,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4,
            "H_per_IP": 0.9,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.06667,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.65,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16667
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 29,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 171.1,
            "ER": 56.0,
            "R": 56.0,
            "H": 159.0,
            "BB": 24.0,
            "SO": 101.0,
            "HR": 21.0,
            "BF": 682.0,
            "Pitches": 2380.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.931,
            "R": 1.931,
            "H": 5.4828,
            "BB": 0.8276,
            "SO": 3.4828,
            "HR": 0.7241,
            "BF": 23.5172,
            "Pitches": 82.069
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.9416,
            "WHIP": 1.0681,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.32685,
            "H_per_IP": 0.92802,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.14008,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.58949,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12257
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.122,
        "predicted_H": 4.98,
        "predicted_BB": 0.75,
        "predicted_SO": 3.992,
        "predicted_HR": 0.866,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.183,
        "predicted_WHIP": 0.9549
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4121,
      "form_weight": 0.5879,
      "form_reliability": 0.8529,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.122,
          "final": 1.6596,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.98,
          "final": 4.9882,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.75,
          "final": 0.4409,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.992,
          "final": 4.4074,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.866,
          "final": 0.5091,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.183,
          "final": 3.183,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 0.9549,
          "final": 0.9549,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 60.0,
        "ER": 24,
        "H": 54,
        "BB": 4,
        "SO": 39,
        "HR": 10,
        "ERA": 3.6,
        "WHIP": 0.9666666666666667,
        "K9": 5.85,
        "HR9": 1.5,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-16T00:00:00"
    },
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        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
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        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 29.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8529,
          "prior_weight": 0.1471
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "607259",
      "player_name": "Nick Martinez",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TB",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
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            {
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            {
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            {
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          {
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          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TB",
        "games": 155,
        "wins": 95,
        "losses": 60,
        "win_pct": 0.6129,
        "runs_scored": 707.0,
        "runs_allowed": 624.0,
        "run_differential": 83.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5355,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5613,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0258,
        "offense_index": 1.013,
        "defense_index": 1.1185,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.1,
          "run_differential": 25.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2664
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "NYY",
        "games": 155,
        "wins": 89,
        "losses": 66,
        "win_pct": 0.5742,
        "runs_scored": 713.0,
        "runs_allowed": 576.0,
        "run_differential": 137.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8839,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7161,
        "offense_index": 1.0216,
        "defense_index": 1.2117,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": 13.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.206
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0604,
        "offense_edge": 0.013,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0216,
        "defense_strength": 0.1185,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.2117,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0051,
        "run_prevention": 0.9886,
        "strikeout": 1.0001
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "607259",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "607259",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 661.0,
            "k_percent": 14.8,
            "bb_percent": 3.5,
            "woba": 0.29,
            "xwoba": 0.309,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 32.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.5651,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.0912,
            "whiff_percent": 17.3,
            "swing_percent": 50.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.15,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3113,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.595,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.05,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.2531,
            "command_and_miss": -0.5614,
            "regression_edge": -0.5429,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.0643,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1111,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.7429,
            "whiff_edge": -1.1071,
            "bb_edge": 1.4125,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1513
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "607259",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 81,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 81,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.1563062875865,
              "release_spin_rate": 2197.2474223566855,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 81,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.1563062875865,
                "release_spin_rate": 2197.2474223566855,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.1563,
              "release_spin_rate": 2197.2474,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1513,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.0805,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0706,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.006,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9151,
          "walk_factor": 0.887,
          "homer_factor": 0.9595,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.019,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "607259",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.006,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.006,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.887,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9595,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9151,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 100,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "WRONG_STARTER",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Wrong starter identity",
      "detail": "The projected MLB player ID differs from the official starter ID; performance errors are not attributable to the projected player."
    },
    {
      "code": "FALSE_CONFIRMATION",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Confirmed flag was false assurance",
      "detail": "The server marked this starter confirmed even though a different player started."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -4."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260922_TB@NYY.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260922

20260922_TB@NYY

home

Carlos Rodón

Max Fried

False

5.2

6.2

1/6

1/2

7/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.9475982532751095,
      "WHIP": 1.1266375545851528,
      "IP": 76.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 15,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.089,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.2,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0639,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9946,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0506,
      "walk_factor": 1.059,
      "homer_factor": 0.9961,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 26.3,
      "bb_percent": 12.1,
      "woba": 0.266,
      "xwoba": 0.307,
      "barrel_percent": 6.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.1,
      "whiff_percent": 29.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": null,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 76.1,
      "season_ERA": 2.948,
      "season_WHIP": 1.127,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 15.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.75,
        "prior_weight": 0.25
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "607074",
      "report_date": "20260922",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 15,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.0,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 14.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 27.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 104.0,
            "Pitches": 448.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 2.8,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 5.4,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 20.8,
            "Pitches": 89.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.4231,
            "WHIP": 0.9231,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.26923,
            "H_per_IP": 0.53846,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38462,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.03846,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11538
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 51.1,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 34.0,
            "BB": 22.0,
            "SO": 56.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 211.0,
            "Pitches": 892.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.7,
            "R": 2.1,
            "H": 3.4,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 5.6,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 21.1,
            "Pitches": 89.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.9805,
            "WHIP": 1.0909,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33117,
            "H_per_IP": 0.66234,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.09091,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11688
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 15,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 76.1,
            "ER": 25.0,
            "R": 30.0,
            "H": 48.0,
            "BB": 38.0,
            "SO": 83.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 315.0,
            "Pitches": 1342.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.6667,
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            "BB": 2.5333,
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            "Pitches": 89.4667
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          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.9476,
            "WHIP": 1.1266,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.32751,
            "H_per_IP": 0.62882,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.49782,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.08734,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0917
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
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        "predicted_H": 3.669,
        "predicted_BB": 2.169,
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        "predicted_ERA": 3.1896,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.106
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4556,
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      "form_reliability": 0.75,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 15.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.75,
        "prior_weight": 0.25
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.871,
          "final": 1.4742,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 3.669,
          "final": 2.4529,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "form": 2.169,
          "final": 1.6364,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 5.461,
          "final": 6.1622,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.637,
          "final": 0.8024,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.1896,
          "final": 3.1896,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.106,
          "final": 1.106,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 51.1,
        "ER": 17,
        "H": 34,
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        "ERA": 2.980519480519481,
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        "K9": 9.818181818181818,
        "HR9": 1.051948051948052,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-16T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.825988931091643,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
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          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
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        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 15.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.75,
          "prior_weight": 0.25
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 1,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 1
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "607074",
      "player_name": "Carlos Rod\u00f3n",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "NYY",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
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            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
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          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
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              "delta": -0.4667,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
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              "before": 5.6667,
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              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
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            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "NYY",
        "games": 155,
        "wins": 89,
        "losses": 66,
        "win_pct": 0.5742,
        "runs_scored": 713.0,
        "runs_allowed": 576.0,
        "run_differential": 137.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8839,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7161,
        "offense_index": 1.0216,
        "defense_index": 1.2117,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": 13.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.206
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TB",
        "games": 155,
        "wins": 95,
        "losses": 60,
        "win_pct": 0.6129,
        "runs_scored": 707.0,
        "runs_allowed": 624.0,
        "run_differential": 83.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5355,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5613,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0258,
        "offense_index": 1.013,
        "defense_index": 1.1185,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.1,
          "run_differential": 25.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2664
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0604,
        "offense_edge": 0.0216,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.013,
        "defense_strength": 0.2117,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1185,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0034,
        "run_prevention": 0.9839,
        "strikeout": 0.9971
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "607074",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "607074",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 287.0,
            "k_percent": 26.3,
            "bb_percent": 12.1,
            "woba": 0.266,
            "xwoba": 0.307,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 38.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 39.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.4358,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.1768,
            "whiff_percent": 29.5,
            "swing_percent": 47.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.15,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3113,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.595,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.05,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.1504,
            "command_and_miss": 0.3579,
            "regression_edge": -1.1714,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.1214,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0889,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1714,
            "whiff_edge": 0.6357,
            "bb_edge": -0.7375,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.047
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "607074",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 82,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 82,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.69711507632361,
              "release_spin_rate": 2325.2804400378964,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 82,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.69711507632361,
                "release_spin_rate": 2325.2804400378964,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.6971,
              "release_spin_rate": 2325.2804,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.047,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.3359,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0639,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9946,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0506,
          "walk_factor": 1.059,
          "homer_factor": 0.9961,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.041,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "607074",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9946,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9946,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.059,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9961,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0506,
            "adjusted": 5
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 1,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 90,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "WRONG_STARTER",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Wrong starter identity",
      "detail": "The projected MLB player ID differs from the official starter ID; performance errors are not attributable to the projected player."
    },
    {
      "code": "FALSE_CONFIRMATION",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Confirmed flag was false assurance",
      "detail": "The server marked this starter confirmed even though a different player started."
    },
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +5."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260922_TB@NYY.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260922

20260922_TOR@BAL

away

Max Scherzer

True

5.0

-1

6/4

2/3

3/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 6.068807339449541,
      "WHIP": 1.3623853211009174,
      "IP": 72.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 16,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.542,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.533,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2222,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0189,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9454,
      "walk_factor": 1.013,
      "homer_factor": 1.0171,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 17.1,
      "bb_percent": 9.8,
      "woba": 0.331,
      "xwoba": 0.32,
      "barrel_percent": 8.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.6,
      "whiff_percent": 20.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 769,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 16.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7619,
        "prior_weight": 0.2381
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "453286",
      "report_date": "20260922",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 16,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.2,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 113.0,
            "Pitches": 421.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 22.6,
            "Pitches": 84.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9036,
            "WHIP": 1.1205,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.43373,
            "H_per_IP": 0.72289,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.39759,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.79518,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07229
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 50.2,
            "ER": 24.0,
            "R": 24.0,
            "H": 41.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 40.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 213.0,
            "Pitches": 829.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 4.1,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 21.3,
            "Pitches": 82.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2632,
            "WHIP": 1.2039,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.47368,
            "H_per_IP": 0.80921,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.39474,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.78947,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09868
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 16,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 72.2,
            "ER": 49.0,
            "R": 49.0,
            "H": 68.0,
            "BB": 31.0,
            "SO": 54.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 315.0,
            "Pitches": 1254.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.0625,
            "R": 3.0625,
            "H": 4.25,
            "BB": 1.9375,
            "SO": 3.375,
            "HR": 0.875,
            "BF": 19.6875,
            "Pitches": 78.375
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.0688,
            "WHIP": 1.3624,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.67431,
            "H_per_IP": 0.93578,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42661,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.74312,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.19266
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.585,
        "predicted_H": 4.348,
        "predicted_BB": 2.051,
        "predicted_SO": 4.244,
        "predicted_HR": 0.6,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.4927,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2358
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4506,
      "form_weight": 0.5494,
      "form_reliability": 0.7619,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 16.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7619,
        "prior_weight": 0.2381
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 2.585,
          "final": 3.6732,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.348,
          "final": 5.0924,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.051,
          "final": 2.028,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.244,
          "final": 3.6835,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.6,
          "final": 1.2308,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.4927,
          "final": 4.4927,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2358,
          "final": 1.2358,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 50.2,
        "ER": 24,
        "H": 41,
        "BB": 20,
        "SO": 40,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 4.2631578947368425,
        "WHIP": 1.2039473684210527,
        "K9": 7.105263157894737,
        "HR9": 0.8881578947368421,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-16T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9731117096288953,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 5.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 16.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7619,
          "prior_weight": 0.2381
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "453286",
      "player_name": "Max Scherzer",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TOR",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TOR",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 77,
        "losses": 80,
        "win_pct": 0.4904,
        "runs_scored": 632.0,
        "runs_allowed": 675.0,
        "run_differential": -43.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2739,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0255,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2994,
        "offense_index": 0.8965,
        "defense_index": 1.0444,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0767
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "BAL",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 76,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.4841,
        "runs_scored": 697.0,
        "runs_allowed": 727.0,
        "run_differential": -30.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1911,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4395,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6306,
        "offense_index": 0.9887,
        "defense_index": 0.9697,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": -3.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0369
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0398,
        "offense_edge": -0.1035,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0113,
        "defense_strength": 0.0444,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0303,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0002,
        "run_prevention": 0.9957,
        "strikeout": 0.9997
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "453286",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "453286",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 294.0,
            "k_percent": 17.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.8,
            "woba": 0.331,
            "xwoba": 0.32,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 34.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.4694,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.3859,
            "whiff_percent": 20.3,
            "swing_percent": 49.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.15,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3113,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.595,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.05,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1651,
            "command_and_miss": -0.5786,
            "regression_edge": 0.3143,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.25,
            "barrel_edge": -0.3556,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.4714,
            "whiff_edge": -0.6786,
            "bb_edge": -0.1625,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1345
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "453286",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 84,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 84,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.45516823346536,
              "release_spin_rate": 2266.2043740371455,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 84,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.45516823346536,
                "release_spin_rate": 2266.2043740371455,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.4552,
              "release_spin_rate": 2266.2044,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1345,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.9609,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2222,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0189,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9454,
          "walk_factor": 1.013,
          "homer_factor": 1.0171,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.011,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "453286",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0189,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0189,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.013,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0171,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9454,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 93,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260922_TOR@BAL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260922

20260922_TOR@BAL

home

Chris Bassitt

True

5.0

-2

8/7

1/1

4/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 4.639175257731959,
      "WHIP": 1.5463917525773196,
      "IP": 97.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 19,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.098,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.933,
      "last_start_IP": 6.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3072,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0261,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9489,
      "walk_factor": 0.985,
      "homer_factor": 0.9807,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 16.4,
      "bb_percent": 8.4,
      "woba": 0.346,
      "xwoba": 0.339,
      "barrel_percent": 5.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.2,
      "whiff_percent": 21.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 229,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 19.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7917,
        "prior_weight": 0.2083
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "605135",
      "report_date": "20260922",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 19,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 29.2,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 30.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 26.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 129.0,
            "Pitches": 479.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 25.8,
            "Pitches": 95.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6404,
            "WHIP": 1.382,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.40449,
            "H_per_IP": 1.01124,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37079,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.8764,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10112
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 54.0,
            "ER": 24.0,
            "R": 24.0,
            "H": 59.0,
            "BB": 18.0,
            "SO": 42.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 236.0,
            "Pitches": 856.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 5.9,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 23.6,
            "Pitches": 85.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.0,
            "WHIP": 1.4259,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44444,
            "H_per_IP": 1.09259,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33333,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.77778,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11111
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 19,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 97.0,
            "ER": 50.0,
            "R": 51.0,
            "H": 113.0,
            "BB": 37.0,
            "SO": 72.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 438.0,
            "Pitches": 1641.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.6316,
            "R": 2.6842,
            "H": 5.9474,
            "BB": 1.9474,
            "SO": 3.7895,
            "HR": 0.5263,
            "BF": 23.0526,
            "Pitches": 86.3684
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.6392,
            "WHIP": 1.5464,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.51546,
            "H_per_IP": 1.16495,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38144,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.74227,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10309
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.543,
        "predicted_H": 5.877,
        "predicted_BB": 2.029,
        "predicted_SO": 4.697,
        "predicted_HR": 0.638,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.0958,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4149
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.438,
      "form_weight": 0.562,
      "form_reliability": 0.7917,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 19.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7917,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.543,
          "final": 3.1812,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 5.877,
          "final": 6.8069,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.029,
          "final": 1.5783,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.697,
          "final": 4.3917,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 0.638,
          "final": 1.6726,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.0958,
          "final": 4.0958,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4149,
          "final": 1.4149,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 54.0,
        "ER": 24,
        "H": 59,
        "BB": 18,
        "SO": 42,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 4.0,
        "WHIP": 1.4259259259259258,
        "K9": 7.0,
        "HR9": 1.0,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-16T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9490559104086222,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 8.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 3.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 19.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7917,
          "prior_weight": 0.2083
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4,
          "predicted_H": 8,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 4,
          "predicted_HR": 3
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "605135",
      "player_name": "Chris Bassitt",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "BAL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 3.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 3.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -0.6667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1176,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 3.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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            "material": true
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "team": {
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        "losses": 81,
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        "runs_scored": 697.0,
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        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4395,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6306,
        "offense_index": 0.9887,
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        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
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      "opponent": {
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        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2739,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0255,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2994,
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          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
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        "available": true,
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
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        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "605135",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.9,
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
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            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
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            "primary_pitch": {
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              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 96,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 85.3723472409564,
                "release_spin_rate": 2180.5493208905896,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 85.3723,
              "release_spin_rate": 2180.5493,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.2512,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.794,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3072,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0261,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9489,
          "walk_factor": 0.985,
          "homer_factor": 0.9807,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.007,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "605135",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0261,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0261,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.985,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9807,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9489,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 8,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 3,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 98,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260922_TOR@BAL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260922

20260922_WAS@DET

away

Riley Cornelio

True

4.0

2.2

-4

-2

5/1

2/3

7/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.21875,
      "WHIP": 1.53125,
      "IP": 32.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 16,
      "role_avg_IP": 2.5,
      "recent_avg_IP": 2.5,
      "last_start_IP": 2.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0983,
      "sample_weight": 0.528,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9916,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.037,
      "walk_factor": 1.0892,
      "homer_factor": 1.0133,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.9,
      "bb_percent": 17.6,
      "woba": 0.302,
      "xwoba": 0.296,
      "barrel_percent": 7.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 44.6,
      "whiff_percent": 35.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 725,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 6.512,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5657,
        "prior_weight": 0.4343
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "683000",
      "report_date": "20260922",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 16,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 12.0,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 5.0,
            "H": 7.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 14.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 46.0,
            "Pitches": 184.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.1,
            "ER": 0.6,
            "R": 1.0,
            "H": 1.4,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 2.8,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 9.2,
            "Pitches": 36.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.25,
            "WHIP": 1.0,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.25,
            "H_per_IP": 0.58333,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.41667,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.16667,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08333
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 19.1,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 10.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 79.0,
            "Pitches": 343.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.0,
            "ER": 0.4,
            "R": 1.0,
            "H": 1.0,
            "BB": 1.3,
            "SO": 2.2,
            "HR": 0.1,
            "BF": 7.9,
            "Pitches": 34.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.8621,
            "WHIP": 1.1897,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.2069,
            "H_per_IP": 0.51724,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.67241,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.13793,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.05172
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 16,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 32.0,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 22.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 25.0,
            "SO": 34.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 142.0,
            "Pitches": 594.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.0,
            "ER": 0.9375,
            "R": 1.375,
            "H": 1.5,
            "BB": 1.5625,
            "SO": 2.125,
            "HR": 0.125,
            "BF": 8.875,
            "Pitches": 37.125
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2188,
            "WHIP": 1.5312,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46875,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.78125,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0625,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0625
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 3.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.229,
        "predicted_H": 2.47,
        "predicted_BB": 1.592,
        "predicted_SO": 3.404,
        "predicted_HR": 0.335,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.4118,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2524
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5335,
      "form_weight": 0.4665,
      "form_reliability": 0.5657,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 6.512,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5657,
        "prior_weight": 0.4343
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 3.1,
          "final": 4.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.229,
          "final": 1.6403,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 2.47,
          "final": 3.8197,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.592,
          "final": 1.8097,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 3.404,
          "final": 5.3224,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.335,
          "final": 0.6898,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.4118,
          "final": 3.4118,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2524,
          "final": 1.2524,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 19.1,
        "ER": 4,
        "H": 10,
        "BB": 13,
        "SO": 22,
        "HR": 1,
        "ERA": 1.8620689655172415,
        "WHIP": 1.1896551724137931,
        "K9": 10.241379310344827,
        "HR9": 0.4655172413793104,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-19T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8098254221068851,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 6.512,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.5657,
          "prior_weight": 0.4343
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "683000",
      "player_name": "Riley Cornelio",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "WAS",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": -0.6667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1429,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": -0.6667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1429,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": -0.6667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1429,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": -0.6667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1429,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "WAS",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 84,
        "win_pct": 0.465,
        "runs_scored": 800.0,
        "runs_allowed": 795.0,
        "run_differential": 5.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0318,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.0955,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0637,
        "offense_index": 1.1362,
        "defense_index": 0.8857,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8,
          "run_differential": -2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0091
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "DET",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 83,
        "win_pct": 0.4713,
        "runs_scored": 706.0,
        "runs_allowed": 631.0,
        "run_differential": 75.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.4777,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4968,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0191,
        "offense_index": 1.0027,
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          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 4,
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          "avg_runs_scored": 5.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": 16.0
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        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0692
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      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0601,
        "offense_edge": 0.1362,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0027,
        "defense_strength": -0.1143,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1159,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9941,
        "run_prevention": 1.0149,
        "strikeout": 0.998
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "683000",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "683000",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 132.0,
            "k_percent": 23.9,
            "bb_percent": 17.6,
            "woba": 0.302,
            "xwoba": 0.296,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 44.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.3029,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9986,
            "whiff_percent": 35.3,
            "swing_percent": 48.1
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.15,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3113,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.595,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.05,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.1993,
            "command_and_miss": 0.2186,
            "regression_edge": 0.1714,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.4357,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.9571,
            "whiff_edge": 1.4643,
            "bb_edge": -2.1125,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0071
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "683000",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 37,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 37,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.98441720106709,
              "release_spin_rate": 2324.6194638196635,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 37,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.98441720106709,
                "release_spin_rate": 2324.6194638196635,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.9844,
              "release_spin_rate": 2324.6195,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0071,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.0508,
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              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0983,
          "sample_weight": 0.528,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9916,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.037,
          "walk_factor": 1.0892,
          "homer_factor": 1.0133,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.006,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "683000",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9956,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9956,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0471,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.007,
            "adjusted": 0
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0195,
            "adjusted": 7
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 85,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260922_WAS@DET.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260922

20260922_WAS@DET

home

Drew Anderson

True

5.0

6.0

3/5

3/0

9/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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    },
    "savant": {
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      "sample_weight": 1.0,
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      "strikeout_factor": 1.03,
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      "k_percent": 25.1,
      "bb_percent": 10.1,
      "woba": 0.317,
      "xwoba": 0.301,
      "barrel_percent": 8.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
      "whiff_percent": 27.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 496,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
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      "effective_weights": {
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      "shrinkage": {
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      },
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      "player_id": "623454",
      "report_date": "20260922",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 48,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
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          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.2,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 19.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
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          "per_game": {
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            "BB": 2.8,
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            "HR": 0.6,
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            "WHIP": 1.2857,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.27273,
            "H_per_IP": 0.74026,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.54545,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.85714,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11688
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        },
        "last_10": {
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          "totals": {
            "IP": 41.0,
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            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 32.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 35.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 170.0,
            "Pitches": 666.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 1.3,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 3.2,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 3.5,
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            "Pitches": 66.6
          },
          "rates": {
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.31707,
            "H_per_IP": 0.78049,
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            "SO_per_IP": 0.85366,
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          }
        },
        "season": {
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            "IP": 102.0,
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            "R": 45.0,
            "H": 89.0,
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            "SO": 109.0,
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            "Pitches": 1699.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.0,
            "ER": 0.8542,
            "R": 0.9375,
            "H": 1.8542,
            "BB": 0.8958,
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          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.2941,
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            "H_per_IP": 0.87255,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42157,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.06863,
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      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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        "predicted_BB": 2.017,
        "predicted_SO": 3.836,
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        "predicted_ERA": 3.1689,
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 1.491,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "form": 3.47,
          "final": 3.267,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "final": 2.4417,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "final": 3.1689,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
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          "final": 1.2959,
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
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        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
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        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
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        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
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        "BB": 20,
        "SO": 35,
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        "games_pitched": 10,
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      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-15T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.8161516646994984,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
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          "predicted_HR": 1.0
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "623454",
      "player_name": "Drew Anderson",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "DET",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "percent_delta": 0.2857,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_deboost": null
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
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          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 9.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.2857,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 9.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.2857,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "DET",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 83,
        "win_pct": 0.4713,
        "runs_scored": 706.0,
        "runs_allowed": 631.0,
        "run_differential": 75.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.4777,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4968,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0191,
        "offense_index": 1.0027,
        "defense_index": 1.1159,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": 16.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0692
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "WAS",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 84,
        "win_pct": 0.465,
        "runs_scored": 800.0,
        "runs_allowed": 795.0,
        "run_differential": 5.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0318,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.0955,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0637,
        "offense_index": 1.1362,
        "defense_index": 0.8857,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8,
          "run_differential": -2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0091
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0601,
        "offense_edge": 0.0027,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1362,
        "defense_strength": 0.1159,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.1143,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0004,
        "run_prevention": 1.0072,
        "strikeout": 0.9909
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "623454",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "623454",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 392.0,
            "k_percent": 25.1,
            "bb_percent": 10.1,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.301,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 28.6,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.6961,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9191,
            "whiff_percent": 27.1,
            "swing_percent": 49.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.15,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3113,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.595,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.05,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0898,
            "command_and_miss": 0.2607,
            "regression_edge": 0.4571,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.2929,
            "barrel_edge": -0.1778,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.0286,
            "whiff_edge": 0.2929,
            "bb_edge": -0.2375,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0199
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "623454",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 82,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 82,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.212223774853,
              "release_spin_rate": 2142.1592491274655,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 82,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.212223774853,
                "release_spin_rate": 2142.1592491274655,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.2122,
              "release_spin_rate": 2142.1592,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0199,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.1419,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1654,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9859,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.03,
          "walk_factor": 1.019,
          "homer_factor": 1.0043,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.016,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "623454",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9859,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9859,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.019,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0043,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.03,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 9,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 96,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260922_WAS@DET.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260923

20260923_ARI@COL

away

Merrill Kelly

True

5.1

-3

9/4

3/1

3/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.997872340425532,
      "WHIP": 1.4744680851063832,
      "IP": 156.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.595,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.533,
      "last_start_IP": 4.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.9213,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0783,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9486,
      "walk_factor": 1.02,
      "homer_factor": 1.158,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 16.3,
      "bb_percent": 10.1,
      "woba": 0.354,
      "xwoba": 0.38,
      "barrel_percent": 11.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 42.2,
      "whiff_percent": 21.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 367,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "518876",
      "report_date": "20260923",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.2,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 23.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 27.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 118.0,
            "Pitches": 464.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 5.4,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 23.6,
            "Pitches": 92.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.253,
            "WHIP": 1.2651,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.36145,
            "H_per_IP": 0.83133,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.43373,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.9759,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07229
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 53.0,
            "ER": 28.0,
            "R": 30.0,
            "H": 50.0,
            "BB": 28.0,
            "SO": 46.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 232.0,
            "Pitches": 890.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 2.8,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 23.2,
            "Pitches": 89.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.7547,
            "WHIP": 1.4717,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5283,
            "H_per_IP": 0.9434,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.5283,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.86792,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11321
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 28,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 156.2,
            "ER": 87.0,
            "R": 91.0,
            "H": 162.0,
            "BB": 69.0,
            "SO": 111.0,
            "HR": 28.0,
            "BF": 683.0,
            "Pitches": 2543.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 3.1071,
            "R": 3.25,
            "H": 5.7857,
            "BB": 2.4643,
            "SO": 3.9643,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 24.3929,
            "Pitches": 90.8214
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.9979,
            "WHIP": 1.4745,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.55532,
            "H_per_IP": 1.03404,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.44043,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.70851,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17872
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.596,
        "predicted_H": 5.131,
        "predicted_BB": 2.529,
        "predicted_SO": 4.97,
        "predicted_HR": 0.635,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.1971,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3759
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.414,
      "form_weight": 0.586,
      "form_reliability": 0.8485,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 2.596,
          "final": 3.5913,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 9.0,
          "form": 5.131,
          "final": 6.7328,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.529,
          "final": 2.724,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.97,
          "final": 4.1544,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.635,
          "final": 0.7861,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.1971,
          "final": 4.1971,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3759,
          "final": 1.3759,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 53.0,
        "ER": 28,
        "H": 50,
        "BB": 28,
        "SO": 46,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 4.754716981132075,
        "WHIP": 1.471698113207547,
        "K9": 7.811320754716981,
        "HR9": 1.0188679245283019,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-16T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0354119066472924,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 5.0,
          "predicted_H": 9.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 28.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8485,
          "prior_weight": 0.1515
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.1,
          "predicted_ER": 5,
          "predicted_H": 9,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 3,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "518876",
      "player_name": "Merrill Kelly",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ARI",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 9.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 9.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 9.0,
              "after": 9.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.5667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.5667,
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              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 9.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
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            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 9.0,
              "after": 9.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.1,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 9.0,
            "after": 9.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
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            "delta": -0.5667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "ARI",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 83,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.5287,
        "runs_scored": 700.0,
        "runs_allowed": 696.0,
        "run_differential": 4.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0255,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4586,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4331,
        "offense_index": 0.9946,
        "defense_index": 1.0113,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": 5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0275
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "COL",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 57,
        "losses": 100,
        "win_pct": 0.3631,
        "runs_scored": 729.0,
        "runs_allowed": 911.0,
        "run_differential": -182.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.1592,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6433,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.8025,
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          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.5,
          "run_differential": -24.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3636
      },
      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": -0.0054,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0358,
        "defense_strength": 0.0113,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0146,
        "run_prevention": 0.985,
        "strikeout": 1.0089
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "518876",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "518876",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 629.0,
            "k_percent": 16.3,
            "bb_percent": 10.1,
            "woba": 0.354,
            "xwoba": 0.38,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 38.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 11.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 42.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.994,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.6761,
            "whiff_percent": 21.7,
            "swing_percent": 49.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3115,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5964,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -1.2388,
            "command_and_miss": -0.58,
            "regression_edge": -0.7429,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.9571,
            "barrel_edge": -0.9333,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.6143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4857,
            "bb_edge": -0.25,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0313
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "518876",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 91,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 91,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.30413110861726,
              "release_spin_rate": 2317.3364498145124,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 91,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.30413110861726,
                "release_spin_rate": 2317.3364498145124,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.3041,
              "release_spin_rate": 2317.3364,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0313,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.2238,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.9213,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0783,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9486,
          "walk_factor": 1.02,
          "homer_factor": 1.158,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.026,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "518876",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0783,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0783,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.02,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.158,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9486,
            "adjusted": 5
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 9,
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 28,
      "Pitches": 109,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -5."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260923_ARI@COL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260923

20260923_ARI@COL

home

Mason Adams

True

4.1

6.0

-5

6/5

4/0

4/8

Last 10 before this game (5 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 5.086956521739131,
      "WHIP": 1.6521739130434783,
      "IP": 23.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 5,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.6,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.6,
      "last_start_IP": 4.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3867,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0329,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9864,
      "walk_factor": 1.0252,
      "homer_factor": 1.094,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 22.8,
      "bb_percent": 11.9,
      "woba": 0.406,
      "xwoba": 0.364,
      "barrel_percent": 10.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 55.4,
      "whiff_percent": 18.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 271,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 5.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5,
        "prior_weight": 0.5
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "690279",
      "report_date": "20260923",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 5,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.0,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 101.0,
            "Pitches": 388.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 20.2,
            "Pitches": 77.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.087,
            "WHIP": 1.6522,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.56522,
            "H_per_IP": 1.13043,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.52174,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.26087
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.0,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 101.0,
            "Pitches": 388.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 20.2,
            "Pitches": 77.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.087,
            "WHIP": 1.6522,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.56522,
            "H_per_IP": 1.13043,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.52174,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.26087
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.0,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 101.0,
            "Pitches": 388.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 20.2,
            "Pitches": 77.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.087,
            "WHIP": 1.6522,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.56522,
            "H_per_IP": 1.13043,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.52174,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.26087
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.508,
        "predicted_H": 4.925,
        "predicted_BB": 2.096,
        "predicted_SO": 4.52,
        "predicted_HR": 0.955,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.8369,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.5046
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5613,
      "form_weight": 0.4388,
      "form_reliability": 0.5,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5,
        "prior_weight": 0.5
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 2.508,
          "final": 4.4679,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "form": 4.925,
          "final": 4.4058,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "form": 2.096,
          "final": 3.1646,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 4.52,
          "final": 4.2282,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 0.955,
          "final": 1.5415,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.8369,
          "final": 4.8369,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
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          "form": 1.5046,
          "final": 1.5046,
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        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "insufficient_data"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 23.0,
        "ER": 13,
        "H": 26,
        "BB": 12,
        "SO": 23,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 5.086956521739131,
        "WHIP": 1.6521739130434783,
        "K9": 9.0,
        "HR9": 2.347826086956522,
        "games_pitched": 5,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 5,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 5,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-16T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0588670302728374,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 6.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 5.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.5,
          "prior_weight": 0.5
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.1,
          "predicted_ER": 6,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 4,
          "predicted_SO": 4,
          "predicted_HR": 2
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_quality_floor",
        "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.1,
          "predicted_ER": 6,
          "predicted_H": 6,
          "predicted_BB": 4,
          "predicted_SO": 4,
          "predicted_HR": 2
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "690279",
      "player_name": "Mason Adams",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "COL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 6.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 6.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.1,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": -0.5667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1214,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": -0.5667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1214,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "starter_quality_floor",
          "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 6.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.1,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
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              "before": 4.0,
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              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 4,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 6.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.1,
            "predicted_R": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.1,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.1,
            "delta": -0.5667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1214,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
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          "worse_metrics": 2,
          "biggest_boost": {
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            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.1,
            "delta": -0.5667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1214,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "COL",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 57,
        "losses": 100,
        "win_pct": 0.3631,
        "runs_scored": 729.0,
        "runs_allowed": 911.0,
        "run_differential": -182.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.1592,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6433,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.8025,
        "offense_index": 1.0358,
        "defense_index": 0.7726,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.5,
          "run_differential": -24.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3636
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "ARI",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 83,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.5287,
        "runs_scored": 700.0,
        "runs_allowed": 696.0,
        "run_differential": 4.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0255,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4586,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4331,
        "offense_index": 0.9946,
        "defense_index": 1.0113,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": 5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0275
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.3911,
        "offense_edge": 0.0358,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0054,
        "defense_strength": -0.2274,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0113,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9778,
        "run_prevention": 1.0414,
        "strikeout": 0.9887
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "690279",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "690279",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 77.0,
            "k_percent": 22.8,
            "bb_percent": 11.9,
            "woba": 0.406,
            "xwoba": 0.364,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 41.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 10.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 55.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 82.8197,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 95.8825,
            "whiff_percent": 18.9,
            "swing_percent": 46.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3115,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5964,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -1.5639,
            "command_and_miss": -0.3921,
            "regression_edge": 1.2,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.5,
            "barrel_edge": -0.8,
            "hard_hit_edge": -2.5,
            "whiff_edge": -0.8857,
            "bb_edge": -0.7,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.021
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "690279",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 76,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 76,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.4878385893386,
              "release_spin_rate": 2271.065268740269,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 76,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.4878385893386,
                "release_spin_rate": 2271.065268740269,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.4878,
              "release_spin_rate": 2271.0653,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.021,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.1503,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3867,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0329,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9864,
          "walk_factor": 1.0252,
          "homer_factor": 1.094,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.042,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "690279",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0148,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0148,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0113,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0423,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9939,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.1,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 6,
      "predicted_ER": 6,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 101,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 5 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -5; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -4."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 5 ER."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260923_ARI@COL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260923

20260923_CHW@KC

away

Bryan Hudson

True

5.0

0.1

-14

4/4

6/0

5/0

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.6173469387755106,
      "WHIP": 1.1632653061224492,
      "IP": 65.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 66,
      "role_avg_IP": 1.208,
      "recent_avg_IP": 1.267,
      "last_start_IP": 1.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.4575,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9611,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9909,
      "walk_factor": 0.944,
      "homer_factor": 0.9149,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.9,
      "bb_percent": 6.3,
      "woba": 0.292,
      "xwoba": 0.273,
      "barrel_percent": 4.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
      "whiff_percent": 23.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 99,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
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            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3115,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5964,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.7034,
            "command_and_miss": 0.06,
            "regression_edge": 0.5429,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.1,
            "barrel_edge": 0.6444,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.0143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2286,
            "bb_edge": 0.7,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0787
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "663542",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 13,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 13,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.45909611346684,
              "release_spin_rate": 2154.7309004103313,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 13,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.45909611346684,
                "release_spin_rate": 2154.7309004103313,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.4591,
              "release_spin_rate": 2154.7309,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0787,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.5618,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.4575,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9611,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9909,
          "walk_factor": 0.944,
          "homer_factor": 0.9149,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.019,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "663542",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9611,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9611,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.944,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9149,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9909,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 6,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 109,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -14 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -6."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260923_CHW@KC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260923

20260923_CHW@KC

home

Seth Lugo

True

4.2

3.1

-4

4/7

6/0

6/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.059171597633136,
      "WHIP": 1.4615384615384615,
      "IP": 169.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 31,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.452,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.733,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.4979,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0423,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9411,
      "walk_factor": 0.966,
      "homer_factor": 1.0692,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 17.9,
      "bb_percent": 7.4,
      "woba": 0.359,
      "xwoba": 0.343,
      "barrel_percent": 8.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 42.8,
      "whiff_percent": 18.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 689,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "607625",
      "report_date": "20260923",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 31,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.2,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 38.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 20.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 113.0,
            "Pitches": 448.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.8,
            "R": 3.8,
            "H": 7.6,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 1.4,
            "BF": 22.6,
            "Pitches": 89.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.2254,
            "WHIP": 1.9437,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.80282,
            "H_per_IP": 1.60563,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33803,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.84507,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.29577
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 51.1,
            "ER": 38.0,
            "R": 38.0,
            "H": 70.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 37.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 233.0,
            "Pitches": 903.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.8,
            "R": 3.8,
            "H": 7.0,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 3.7,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 23.3,
            "Pitches": 90.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.6623,
            "WHIP": 1.6753,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.74026,
            "H_per_IP": 1.36364,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31169,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.72078,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15584
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 31,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 169.0,
            "ER": 95.0,
            "R": 103.0,
            "H": 193.0,
            "BB": 54.0,
            "SO": 131.0,
            "HR": 23.0,
            "BF": 732.0,
            "Pitches": 2786.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.0645,
            "R": 3.3226,
            "H": 6.2258,
            "BB": 1.7419,
            "SO": 4.2258,
            "HR": 0.7419,
            "BF": 23.6129,
            "Pitches": 89.871
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.0592,
            "WHIP": 1.4615,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.56213,
            "H_per_IP": 1.14201,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31953,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.77515,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13609
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 3.459,
        "predicted_H": 6.732,
        "predicted_BB": 1.637,
        "predicted_SO": 3.984,
        "predicted_HR": 1.013,
        "predicted_ERA": 6.3161,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.6983
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4087,
      "form_weight": 0.5913,
      "form_reliability": 0.8611,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.459,
          "final": 3.6801,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 6.732,
          "final": 5.6155,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 1.637,
          "final": 3.4201,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 3.984,
          "final": 4.8079,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.013,
          "final": 0.599,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 6.3161,
          "final": 6.3161,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.6983,
          "final": 1.6983,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 51.1,
        "ER": 38,
        "H": 70,
        "BB": 16,
        "SO": 37,
        "HR": 8,
        "ERA": 6.662337662337663,
        "WHIP": 1.6753246753246755,
        "K9": 6.487012987012988,
        "HR9": 1.4025974025974026,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-17T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.2551098973358492,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 6.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 31.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8611,
          "prior_weight": 0.1389
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.2,
          "predicted_ER": 4,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 6,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "607625",
      "player_name": "Seth Lugo",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "KC",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 6.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 6.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.8,
              "percent_delta": -0.16,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.8,
              "percent_delta": -0.16,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 6.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.2,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.8,
            "percent_delta": -0.16,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.8,
            "percent_delta": -0.16,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "KC",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 67,
        "losses": 90,
        "win_pct": 0.4268,
        "runs_scored": 667.0,
        "runs_allowed": 772.0,
        "run_differential": -105.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.6688,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2484,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9172,
        "offense_index": 0.9483,
        "defense_index": 0.9111,
        "current_streak": "L5",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.5,
          "run_differential": -17.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2493
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CHW",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 81,
        "losses": 76,
        "win_pct": 0.5159,
        "runs_scored": 747.0,
        "runs_allowed": 702.0,
        "run_differential": 45.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2866,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.758,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4713,
        "offense_index": 1.062,
        "defense_index": 1.002,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
          "run_differential": 10.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0837
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.333,
        "offense_edge": -0.0517,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.062,
        "defense_strength": -0.0889,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.002,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.4
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9815,
        "run_prevention": 1.0355,
        "strikeout": 0.985
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "607625",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "607625",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 704.0,
            "k_percent": 17.9,
            "bb_percent": 7.4,
            "woba": 0.359,
            "xwoba": 0.343,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 42.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.0229,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.5587,
            "whiff_percent": 18.8,
            "swing_percent": 46.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3115,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5964,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.7117,
            "command_and_miss": -0.4871,
            "regression_edge": 0.4571,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.9,
            "barrel_edge": -0.1778,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.7,
            "whiff_edge": -0.9,
            "bb_edge": 0.425,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.2303
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "607625",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 93,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 93,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 85.75049184869331,
              "release_spin_rate": 2511.4585714700015,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 93,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 85.75049184869331,
                "release_spin_rate": 2511.4585714700015,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 85.7505,
              "release_spin_rate": 2511.4586,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.2303,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.6453,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.4979,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0423,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9411,
          "walk_factor": 0.966,
          "homer_factor": 1.0692,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.016,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "607625",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0423,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0423,
            "adjusted": 7
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.966,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0692,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9411,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 6,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 97,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -6."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260923_CHW@KC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260923

20260923_CIN@ATL

away

Andrew Abbott

True

4.1

7.0

5/6

1/1

8/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.69811320754717,
      "WHIP": 1.471698113207547,
      "IP": 159.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 31,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.129,
      "recent_avg_IP": 3.933,
      "last_start_IP": 4.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.4444,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0378,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9606,
      "walk_factor": 1.032,
      "homer_factor": 1.0482,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 17.8,
      "bb_percent": 10.7,
      "woba": 0.335,
      "xwoba": 0.341,
      "barrel_percent": 8.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.8,
      "whiff_percent": 22.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 150,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "671096",
      "report_date": "20260923",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 31,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 19.2,
            "ER": 20.0,
            "R": 22.0,
            "H": 30.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 17.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 97.0,
            "Pitches": 355.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 4.4,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 3.4,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 19.4,
            "Pitches": 71.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 9.1525,
            "WHIP": 1.9831,
            "ER_per_IP": 1.01695,
            "H_per_IP": 1.52542,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.45763,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.86441,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.30508
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 48.0,
            "ER": 35.0,
            "R": 37.0,
            "H": 54.0,
            "BB": 25.0,
            "SO": 35.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 220.0,
            "Pitches": 832.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.5,
            "R": 3.7,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 2.5,
            "SO": 3.5,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 83.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.5625,
            "WHIP": 1.6458,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.72917,
            "H_per_IP": 1.125,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.52083,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.72917,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16667
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 31,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 159.0,
            "ER": 83.0,
            "R": 89.0,
            "H": 159.0,
            "BB": 75.0,
            "SO": 125.0,
            "HR": 24.0,
            "BF": 701.0,
            "Pitches": 2769.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.6774,
            "R": 2.871,
            "H": 5.129,
            "BB": 2.4194,
            "SO": 4.0323,
            "HR": 0.7742,
            "BF": 22.6129,
            "Pitches": 89.3226
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.6981,
            "WHIP": 1.4717,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.52201,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.4717,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.78616,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15094
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.1,
        "predicted_ER": 3.459,
        "predicted_H": 5.531,
        "predicted_BB": 2.089,
        "predicted_SO": 3.663,
        "predicted_HR": 0.96,
        "predicted_ERA": 6.9706,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.7064
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4087,
      "form_weight": 0.5913,
      "form_reliability": 0.8611,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 4.1,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 3.459,
          "final": 2.454,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.531,
          "final": 5.314,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.089,
          "final": 1.6439,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 3.663,
          "final": 5.4355,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.96,
          "final": 0.9763,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 6.9706,
          "final": 6.9706,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.7064,
          "final": 1.7064,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 48.0,
        "ER": 35,
        "H": 54,
        "BB": 25,
        "SO": 35,
        "HR": 8,
        "ERA": 6.5625,
        "WHIP": 1.6458333333333333,
        "K9": 6.5625,
        "HR9": 1.5,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-16T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.2431408767730785,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 8.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 31.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8611,
          "prior_weight": 0.1389
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.1,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 8,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "671096",
      "player_name": "Andrew Abbott",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CIN",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.1,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": -0.5667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1214,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": -0.5667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1214,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.1,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.1,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.1,
            "delta": -0.5667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1214,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 8.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "after": 4.1,
            "delta": -0.5667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1214,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CIN",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 84,
        "win_pct": 0.465,
        "runs_scored": 646.0,
        "runs_allowed": 805.0,
        "run_differential": -159.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.0127,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1146,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1274,
        "offense_index": 0.9184,
        "defense_index": 0.8738,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.2,
          "run_differential": -17.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1891
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "ATL",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 92,
        "losses": 65,
        "win_pct": 0.586,
        "runs_scored": 722.0,
        "runs_allowed": 606.0,
        "run_differential": 116.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.7389,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5987,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8599,
        "offense_index": 1.0265,
        "defense_index": 1.1607,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": 6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1988
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      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.3879,
        "offense_edge": -0.0816,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0265,
        "defense_strength": -0.1262,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1607,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9796,
        "run_prevention": 1.0363,
        "strikeout": 0.9862
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "671096",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "671096",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 645.0,
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            "bb_percent": 10.7,
            "woba": 0.335,
            "xwoba": 0.341,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.7415,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.2035,
            "whiff_percent": 22.3,
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          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.5964,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.5185,
            "command_and_miss": -0.4836,
            "regression_edge": -0.1714,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.8429,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2222,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4,
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            "pitch_design_score": -0.1391
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "671096",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 71,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 71,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.37940672170677,
              "release_spin_rate": 2443.046166911797,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 71,
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                "release_speed": 87.37940672170677,
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                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.3794,
              "release_spin_rate": 2443.0462,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1391,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.9937,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.4444,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0378,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9606,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.006,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "671096",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0378,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0378,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.032,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0482,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9606,
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.1,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 81,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by +8 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260923_CIN@ATL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260923

20260923_CIN@ATL

home

Chris Sale

True

6.1

5.2

-2

-1

3/4

2/0

5/10

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "IP": 157.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.038,
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      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.6599,
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      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9439,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0754,
      "walk_factor": 0.916,
      "homer_factor": 0.9303,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 30.3,
      "bb_percent": 4.9,
      "woba": 0.259,
      "xwoba": 0.271,
      "barrel_percent": 6.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.2,
      "whiff_percent": 29.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 9,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
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        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
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        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "519242",
      "report_date": "20260923",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 34.0,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 27.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 39.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 133.0,
            "Pitches": 508.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.2,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 0.6,
            "SO": 7.8,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 26.6,
            "Pitches": 101.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.1176,
            "WHIP": 0.8824,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.23529,
            "H_per_IP": 0.79412,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.08824,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.14706,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.02941
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 62.0,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 43.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 78.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 235.0,
            "Pitches": 935.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 4.3,
            "BB": 0.7,
            "SO": 7.8,
            "HR": 0.1,
            "BF": 23.5,
            "Pitches": 93.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.0323,
            "WHIP": 0.8065,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.22581,
            "H_per_IP": 0.69355,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.1129,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.25806,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.01613
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 157.0,
            "ER": 38.0,
            "R": 43.0,
            "H": 125.0,
            "BB": 31.0,
            "SO": 190.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 627.0,
            "Pitches": 2477.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.4615,
            "R": 1.6538,
            "H": 4.8077,
            "BB": 1.1923,
            "SO": 7.3077,
            "HR": 0.3462,
            "BF": 24.1154,
            "Pitches": 95.2692
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.1783,
            "WHIP": 0.9936,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.24204,
            "H_per_IP": 0.79618,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.19745,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.21019,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.05732
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.779,
        "predicted_H": 5.09,
        "predicted_BB": 1.027,
        "predicted_SO": 7.405,
        "predicted_HR": 0.316,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.501,
        "predicted_WHIP": 0.9553
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4181,
      "form_weight": 0.5819,
      "form_reliability": 0.8387,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
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      },
      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 6.1,
          "final": 6.1,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 1.779,
          "final": 2.7077,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "form": 5.09,
          "final": 5.4705,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "form": 1.027,
          "final": 1.4339,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 7.405,
          "final": 5.1449,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 0.316,
          "final": 0.1839,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "form": 2.501,
          "final": 2.501,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
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          "form": 0.9553,
          "final": 0.9553,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 62.0,
        "ER": 14,
        "H": 43,
        "BB": 7,
        "SO": 78,
        "HR": 1,
        "ERA": 2.032258064516129,
        "WHIP": 0.8064516129032258,
        "K9": 11.32258064516129,
        "HR9": 0.14516129032258066,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 9,
        "dominant_form": true,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-11T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7125041160203904,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 26.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8387,
          "prior_weight": 0.1613
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.1,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 6,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "519242",
      "player_name": "Chris Sale",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ATL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": -2.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.3333,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0368,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 5.0,
              "percent_delta": 2.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 3,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 2,
            "better_metrics": 2,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 5.0,
              "percent_delta": 2.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": -2.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -3.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.1,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -2.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.2857,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 2,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -3.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": -2.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.5,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -3.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.5,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.3333,
            "after": 6.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0368,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 3.0,
            "percent_delta": 1.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 4,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 3,
          "better_metrics": 3,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 3.0,
            "percent_delta": 1.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -3.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.5,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "ATL",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 92,
        "losses": 65,
        "win_pct": 0.586,
        "runs_scored": 722.0,
        "runs_allowed": 606.0,
        "run_differential": 116.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.7389,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5987,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8599,
        "offense_index": 1.0265,
        "defense_index": 1.1607,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": 6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1988
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CIN",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 84,
        "win_pct": 0.465,
        "runs_scored": 646.0,
        "runs_allowed": 805.0,
        "run_differential": -159.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.0127,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1146,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1274,
        "offense_index": 0.9184,
        "defense_index": 0.8738,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.2,
          "run_differential": -17.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1891
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.3879,
        "offense_edge": 0.0265,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0816,
        "defense_strength": 0.1607,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.1262,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0236,
        "run_prevention": 0.9515,
        "strikeout": 1.0182
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "519242",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "519242",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 575.0,
            "k_percent": 30.3,
            "bb_percent": 4.9,
            "woba": 0.259,
            "xwoba": 0.271,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 35.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.0619,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.4771,
            "whiff_percent": 29.9,
            "swing_percent": 50.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3115,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5964,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.7892,
            "command_and_miss": 0.99,
            "regression_edge": -0.3429,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.1571,
            "barrel_edge": 0.2444,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.3857,
            "whiff_edge": 0.6857,
            "bb_edge": 1.05,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0645
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "519242",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 103,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 103,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.7123798188993,
              "release_spin_rate": 2355.026241900336,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 103,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.7123798188993,
                "release_spin_rate": 2355.026241900336,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.7124,
              "release_spin_rate": 2355.0262,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0645,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.4605,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.6599,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9439,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0754,
          "walk_factor": 0.916,
          "homer_factor": 0.9303,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.012,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "519242",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9439,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9439,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.916,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9303,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0754,
            "adjusted": 8
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.1,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 102,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260923_CIN@ATL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260923

20260923_CLE@BOS

away

Foster Griffin

True

5.1

6.0

-3

4/10

3/0

6/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.672,
      "WHIP": 1.1940000000000002,
      "IP": 166.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 30,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.556,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.467,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0994,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0085,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.988,
      "walk_factor": 0.948,
      "homer_factor": 1.0275,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.8,
      "bb_percent": 6.5,
      "woba": 0.311,
      "xwoba": 0.32,
      "barrel_percent": 8.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.4,
      "whiff_percent": 23.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 38,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "656492",
      "report_date": "20260923",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 30,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 22.1,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 29.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 20.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 104.0,
            "Pitches": 424.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 3.4,
            "R": 3.4,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 20.8,
            "Pitches": 84.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.8507,
            "WHIP": 1.7463,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.76119,
            "H_per_IP": 1.29851,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.44776,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.89552,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 49.1,
            "ER": 33.0,
            "R": 35.0,
            "H": 60.0,
            "BB": 18.0,
            "SO": 40.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 220.0,
            "Pitches": 882.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.3,
            "R": 3.5,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 88.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.0203,
            "WHIP": 1.5811,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.66892,
            "H_per_IP": 1.21622,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36486,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.81081,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12162
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 30,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 166.2,
            "ER": 68.0,
            "R": 75.0,
            "H": 154.0,
            "BB": 45.0,
            "SO": 151.0,
            "HR": 23.0,
            "BF": 693.0,
            "Pitches": 2750.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.2667,
            "R": 2.5,
            "H": 5.1333,
            "BB": 1.5,
            "SO": 5.0333,
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            "BF": 23.1,
            "Pitches": 91.6667
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.672,
            "WHIP": 1.194,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.408,
            "H_per_IP": 0.924,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.27,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.906,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.138
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 3.124,
        "predicted_H": 5.71,
        "predicted_BB": 1.875,
        "predicted_SO": 4.306,
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        "predicted_ERA": 5.7332,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.5464
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4104,
      "form_weight": 0.5896,
      "form_reliability": 0.8571,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.124,
          "final": 3.0731,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.71,
          "final": 5.0083,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.875,
          "final": 2.3367,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.306,
          "final": 4.5908,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.399,
          "final": 0.6456,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.7332,
          "final": 5.7332,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.5464,
          "final": 1.5464,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 49.1,
        "ER": 33,
        "H": 60,
        "BB": 18,
        "SO": 40,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 6.02027027027027,
        "WHIP": 1.581081081081081,
        "K9": 7.297297297297297,
        "HR9": 1.0945945945945945,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-15T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.1805212258721776,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 30.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8571,
          "prior_weight": 0.1429
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "656492",
      "player_name": "Foster Griffin",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CLE",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.2,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.2,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.2,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.2,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CLE",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 82,
        "losses": 75,
        "win_pct": 0.5223,
        "runs_scored": 652.0,
        "runs_allowed": 649.0,
        "run_differential": 3.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0191,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1529,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1338,
        "offense_index": 0.9269,
        "defense_index": 1.0838,
        "current_streak": "W6",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.5,
          "run_differential": 19.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1263
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "BOS",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 84,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.535,
        "runs_scored": 680.0,
        "runs_allowed": 601.0,
        "run_differential": 79.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5032,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3312,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.828,
        "offense_index": 0.9668,
        "defense_index": 1.1704,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 2.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.1,
          "run_differential": -3.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0565
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0698,
        "offense_edge": -0.0731,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0332,
        "defense_strength": 0.0838,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1704,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.4
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0066,
        "run_prevention": 0.9828,
        "strikeout": 1.0048
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "656492",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "656492",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 669.0,
            "k_percent": 21.8,
            "bb_percent": 6.5,
            "woba": 0.311,
            "xwoba": 0.32,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.2193,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.0188,
            "whiff_percent": 23.1,
            "swing_percent": 48.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3115,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5964,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1118,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0236,
            "regression_edge": -0.2571,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.2429,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2889,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.0714,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2857,
            "bb_edge": 0.65,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.2153
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "656492",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 88,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 88,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 86.01981218316948,
              "release_spin_rate": 2149.763694103009,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 88,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 86.01981218316948,
                "release_spin_rate": 2149.763694103009,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 86.0198,
              "release_spin_rate": 2149.7637,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.2153,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.5375,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0994,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0085,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.988,
          "walk_factor": 0.948,
          "homer_factor": 1.0275,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.009,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "656492",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0085,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0085,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.948,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0275,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.988,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 101,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 6",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +6."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260923_CLE@BOS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260923

20260923_CLE@BOS

home

Sonny Gray

True

6.0

-3

6/4

3/1

6/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.815950920245399,
      "WHIP": 1.1595092024539877,
      "IP": 163.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.821,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.067,
      "last_start_IP": 6.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0628,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9947,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9909,
      "walk_factor": 0.954,
      "homer_factor": 0.9953,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.1,
      "bb_percent": 6.8,
      "woba": 0.297,
      "xwoba": 0.302,
      "barrel_percent": 7.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.5,
      "whiff_percent": 23.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 18,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "543243",
      "report_date": "20260923",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.1,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 12.0,
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            "BB": 11.0,
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            "BF": 125.0,
            "Pitches": 474.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 2.2,
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          "rates": {
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.3956,
            "H_per_IP": 0.85714,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36264,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.95604,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0989
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
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          },
          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.375,
            "H_per_IP": 0.94565,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.27717,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.91304,
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        },
        "season": {
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          "totals": {
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          },
          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.31288,
            "H_per_IP": 0.88344,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.27607,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.89571,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09816
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      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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        "predicted_BB": 1.93,
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 2.334,
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        "predicted_H": {
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          "form": 5.388,
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        "predicted_BB": {
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        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 5.529,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "form": 3.5345,
          "final": 3.5345,
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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          "form": 1.2312,
          "final": 1.2312,
          "source": "form_only"
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    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
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        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
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        "ER": 23,
        "H": 58,
        "BB": 17,
        "SO": 56,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 3.3750000000000004,
        "WHIP": 1.2228260869565217,
        "K9": 8.217391304347826,
        "HR9": 0.7336956521739131,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
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      "fielding": {
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        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-17T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.8739719456136583,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
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        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 28.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8485,
          "prior_weight": 0.1515
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 6,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 0
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "543243",
      "player_name": "Sonny Gray",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "BOS",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
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              "delta": -1.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
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              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_deboost": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
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            {
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            {
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
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          {
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          {
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          },
          {
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          "biggest_deboost": {
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          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "wins": 84,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.535,
        "runs_scored": 680.0,
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        "run_differential": 79.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5032,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3312,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.828,
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        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 2.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.1,
          "run_differential": -3.0
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "wins": 82,
        "losses": 75,
        "win_pct": 0.5223,
        "runs_scored": 652.0,
        "runs_allowed": 649.0,
        "run_differential": 3.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0191,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1529,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1338,
        "offense_index": 0.9269,
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          "avg_runs_scored": 5.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.5,
          "run_differential": 19.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1263
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      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0698,
        "offense_edge": -0.0332,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0731,
        "defense_strength": 0.1704,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0838,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.4
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0052,
        "run_prevention": 0.9748,
        "strikeout": 1.0038
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "543243",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "543243",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 6.8,
            "woba": 0.297,
            "xwoba": 0.302,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
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            "avg_best_speed": 78.9436,
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
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            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3115,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.5964,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.1398,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0379,
            "regression_edge": -0.1429,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.2714,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0,
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            "bb_edge": 0.575,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1376
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "543243",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 91,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 91,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.40671359710561,
              "release_spin_rate": 2505.690298803869,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "pitches": 91,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.40671359710561,
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                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.4067,
              "release_spin_rate": 2505.6903,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
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              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            "components": {
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              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": -0.9828,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0628,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9947,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9909,
          "walk_factor": 0.954,
          "homer_factor": 0.9953,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.005,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "543243",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9947,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9947,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.954,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9953,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9909,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 27,
      "Pitches": 118,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 3 ER."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260923_CLE@BOS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260923

20260923_HOU@SEA

away

Ethan Pecko

True

5.0

2.2

-7

4/4

2/2

8/2

Last 10 before this game (6 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.7674418604651163,
      "WHIP": 1.1162790697674418,
      "IP": 28.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 6,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.333,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.333,
      "last_start_IP": 4.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1851,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0157,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9784,
      "walk_factor": 1.0108,
      "homer_factor": 1.0317,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 16.4,
      "bb_percent": 10.3,
      "woba": 0.301,
      "xwoba": 0.335,
      "barrel_percent": 9.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.6,
      "whiff_percent": 22.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 292,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.0,
      "season_IP": 28.2,
      "season_ERA": 3.767,
      "season_WHIP": 1.116,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.8653846153846154,
        "last_10": 0.1346153846153846
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 6.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5455,
        "prior_weight": 0.4545
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "814490",
      "report_date": "20260923",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 6,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.0,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 17.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 15.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 98.0,
            "Pitches": 398.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 3.4,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 3.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 19.6,
            "Pitches": 79.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6,
            "WHIP": 1.04,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4,
            "H_per_IP": 0.68,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.6,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.2
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 6,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.2,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 19.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 116.0,
            "Pitches": 487.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.1667,
            "H": 3.3333,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 3.1667,
            "HR": 0.8333,
            "BF": 19.3333,
            "Pitches": 81.1667
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7674,
            "WHIP": 1.1163,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4186,
            "H_per_IP": 0.69767,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.4186,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.66279,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17442
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 6,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.2,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 19.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 116.0,
            "Pitches": 487.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.1667,
            "H": 3.3333,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 3.1667,
            "HR": 0.8333,
            "BF": 19.3333,
            "Pitches": 81.1667
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7674,
            "WHIP": 1.1163,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4186,
            "H_per_IP": 0.69767,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.4186,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.66279,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17442
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.245,
        "predicted_H": 4.069,
        "predicted_BB": 1.85,
        "predicted_SO": 3.771,
        "predicted_HR": 0.869,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.0608,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1896
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.542,
      "form_weight": 0.458,
      "form_reliability": 0.5455,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 6.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5455,
        "prior_weight": 0.4545
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.245,
          "final": 1.0282,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.069,
          "final": 4.0316,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.85,
          "final": 1.9313,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 3.771,
          "final": 6.0632,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.869,
          "final": 0.398,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.0608,
          "final": 4.0608,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1896,
          "final": 1.1896,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 28.2,
        "ER": 12,
        "H": 20,
        "BB": 12,
        "SO": 19,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 3.7674418604651163,
        "WHIP": 1.1162790697674418,
        "K9": 5.965116279069767,
        "HR9": 1.569767441860465,
        "games_pitched": 6,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 6,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 6,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-17T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9197564002165157,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 0.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 8.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 6.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.5455,
          "prior_weight": 0.4545
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 0,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 8,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "814490",
      "player_name": "Ethan Pecko",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "HOU",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            {
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
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          {
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 78,
        "losses": 79,
        "win_pct": 0.4968,
        "runs_scored": 695.0,
        "runs_allowed": 747.0,
        "run_differential": -52.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3312,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4268,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.758,
        "offense_index": 0.9869,
        "defense_index": 0.9427,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": -12.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1133
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SEA",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 84,
        "win_pct": 0.465,
        "runs_scored": 634.0,
        "runs_allowed": 697.0,
        "run_differential": -63.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4013,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0382,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4395,
        "offense_index": 0.9003,
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        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": 11.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.114
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0007,
        "offense_edge": -0.0131,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0997,
        "defense_strength": -0.0573,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0103,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0023,
        "run_prevention": 0.9897,
        "strikeout": 1.008
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "814490",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "814490",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "k_percent": 16.4,
            "bb_percent": 10.3,
            "woba": 0.301,
            "xwoba": 0.335,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.46,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.301,
            "whiff_percent": 22.2,
            "swing_percent": 45.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3115,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5964,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.2937,
            "command_and_miss": -0.5586,
            "regression_edge": -0.9714,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.6714,
            "barrel_edge": -0.5778,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4143,
            "bb_edge": -0.3,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0555
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "814490",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 83,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 83,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.87197185297008,
              "release_spin_rate": 2284.8833648498585,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 83,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.87197185297008,
                "release_spin_rate": 2284.8833648498585,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.872,
              "release_spin_rate": 2284.8834,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0555,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.3967,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1851,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0157,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9784,
          "walk_factor": 1.0108,
          "homer_factor": 1.0317,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.034,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "814490",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0071,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0071,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0049,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0143,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9903,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 0,
      "predicted_ER": 0,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 95,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 6 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -7 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260923_HOU@SEA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260923

20260923_HOU@SEA

home

George Kirby

True

6.0

5.0

-3

6/6

1/3

8/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.243614931237722,
      "WHIP": 1.3850687622789786,
      "IP": 169.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 29,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.851,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.933,
      "last_start_IP": 4.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0543,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0046,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9731,
      "walk_factor": 0.94,
      "homer_factor": 1.0043,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 19.9,
      "bb_percent": 6.1,
      "woba": 0.338,
      "xwoba": 0.315,
      "barrel_percent": 6.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 40.0,
      "whiff_percent": 22.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 125,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669923",
      "report_date": "20260923",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 29,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 29.2,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 34.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 26.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 131.0,
            "Pitches": 472.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 6.8,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 26.2,
            "Pitches": 94.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5506,
            "WHIP": 1.5169,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.50562,
            "H_per_IP": 1.14607,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37079,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.8764,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13483
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 53.2,
            "ER": 34.0,
            "R": 35.0,
            "H": 67.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 39.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 241.0,
            "Pitches": 914.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.4,
            "R": 3.5,
            "H": 6.7,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 3.9,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 24.1,
            "Pitches": 91.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.7019,
            "WHIP": 1.6025,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.63354,
            "H_per_IP": 1.24845,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35404,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.72671,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18634
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 29,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 169.2,
            "ER": 80.0,
            "R": 85.0,
            "H": 191.0,
            "BB": 44.0,
            "SO": 143.0,
            "HR": 21.0,
            "BF": 718.0,
            "Pitches": 2662.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.7586,
            "R": 2.931,
            "H": 6.5862,
            "BB": 1.5172,
            "SO": 4.931,
            "HR": 0.7241,
            "BF": 24.7586,
            "Pitches": 91.7931
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2436,
            "WHIP": 1.3851,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.47151,
            "H_per_IP": 1.12574,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25933,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.84283,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12377
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 3.124,
        "predicted_H": 6.664,
        "predicted_BB": 2.017,
        "predicted_SO": 4.844,
        "predicted_HR": 0.872,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.8472,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4964
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4121,
      "form_weight": 0.5879,
      "form_reliability": 0.8529,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 3.124,
          "final": 2.6607,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.664,
          "final": 6.3903,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.017,
          "final": 1.5978,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.844,
          "final": 4.9083,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.872,
          "final": 0.9248,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.8472,
          "final": 4.8472,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4964,
          "final": 1.4964,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 53.2,
        "ER": 34,
        "H": 67,
        "BB": 19,
        "SO": 39,
        "HR": 10,
        "ERA": 5.7018633540372665,
        "WHIP": 1.6024844720496894,
        "K9": 6.540372670807453,
        "HR9": 1.6770186335403725,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-16T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.14523553257018,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 29.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8529,
          "prior_weight": 0.1471
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669923",
      "player_name": "George Kirby",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SEA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 3.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.6,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 3.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.6,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "biggest_boost": {
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            "delta": 3.0,
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            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SEA",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 84,
        "win_pct": 0.465,
        "runs_scored": 634.0,
        "runs_allowed": 697.0,
        "run_differential": -63.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4013,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0382,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4395,
        "offense_index": 0.9003,
        "defense_index": 1.0103,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": 11.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.114
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 78,
        "losses": 79,
        "win_pct": 0.4968,
        "runs_scored": 695.0,
        "runs_allowed": 747.0,
        "run_differential": -52.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3312,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4268,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.758,
        "offense_index": 0.9869,
        "defense_index": 0.9427,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": -12.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1133
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0007,
        "offense_edge": -0.0997,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0131,
        "defense_strength": 0.0103,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0573,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0008,
        "run_prevention": 0.9969,
        "strikeout": 1.001
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669923",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669923",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 691.0,
            "k_percent": 19.9,
            "bb_percent": 6.1,
            "woba": 0.338,
            "xwoba": 0.315,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 40.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.17,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.1506,
            "whiff_percent": 22.4,
            "swing_percent": 51.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3115,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5964,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1784,
            "command_and_miss": -0.1136,
            "regression_edge": 0.6571,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.1,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1333,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.3,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3857,
            "bb_edge": 0.75,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1179
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669923",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 93,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 93,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 91.96952767159299,
              "release_spin_rate": 2257.4159200004274,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 93,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 91.96952767159299,
                "release_spin_rate": 2257.4159200004274,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.9695,
              "release_spin_rate": 2257.4159,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1179,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.8423,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0543,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0046,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9731,
          "walk_factor": 0.94,
          "homer_factor": 1.0043,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.023,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "669923",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0046,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0046,
            "adjusted": 7
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.94,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0043,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9731,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 110,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260923_HOU@SEA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260923

20260923_LAA@OAK

away

Walbert Ureña

True

6.0

4.0

-6

3/7

4/1

6/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.74364896073903,
      "WHIP": 1.20554272517321,
      "IP": 144.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.487,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.333,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.4603,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9609,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0223,
      "walk_factor": 1.04,
      "homer_factor": 0.9287,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.1,
      "bb_percent": 11.1,
      "woba": 0.274,
      "xwoba": 0.281,
      "barrel_percent": 5.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.6,
      "whiff_percent": 27.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": null,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "700712",
      "report_date": "20260923",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 31.2,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 31.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 126.0,
            "Pitches": 464.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 6.2,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 25.2,
            "Pitches": 92.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.5579,
            "WHIP": 1.0737,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.28421,
            "H_per_IP": 0.82105,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25263,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.97895,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06316
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 57.0,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 40.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 57.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 227.0,
            "Pitches": 889.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.7,
            "R": 1.7,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 5.7,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 22.7,
            "Pitches": 88.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.6842,
            "WHIP": 1.0526,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.29825,
            "H_per_IP": 0.70175,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35088,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07018
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 28,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 144.1,
            "ER": 44.0,
            "R": 51.0,
            "H": 107.0,
            "BB": 67.0,
            "SO": 140.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 605.0,
            "Pitches": 2400.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.5714,
            "R": 1.8214,
            "H": 3.8214,
            "BB": 2.3929,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.3214,
            "BF": 21.6071,
            "Pitches": 85.7143
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7436,
            "WHIP": 1.2055,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.30485,
            "H_per_IP": 0.74134,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.4642,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.96998,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06236
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.91,
        "predicted_H": 4.665,
        "predicted_BB": 1.971,
        "predicted_SO": 5.726,
        "predicted_HR": 0.457,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.9343,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1327
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.414,
      "form_weight": 0.586,
      "form_reliability": 0.8485,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.91,
          "final": 2.3613,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.665,
          "final": 3.9757,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.971,
          "final": 2.811,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.726,
          "final": 5.0114,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.457,
          "final": 0.2678,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.9343,
          "final": 2.9343,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1327,
          "final": 1.1327,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 57.0,
        "ER": 17,
        "H": 40,
        "BB": 20,
        "SO": 57,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 2.6842105263157894,
        "WHIP": 1.0526315789473684,
        "K9": 9.0,
        "HR9": 0.631578947368421,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-17T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7920032671239557,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 28.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8485,
          "prior_weight": 0.1515
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 4,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "700712",
      "player_name": "Walbert Ure\u00f1a",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "LAA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "LAA",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 60,
        "losses": 97,
        "win_pct": 0.3822,
        "runs_scored": 632.0,
        "runs_allowed": 721.0,
        "run_differential": -89.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5669,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0255,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5924,
        "offense_index": 0.8975,
        "defense_index": 0.9767,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.3,
          "run_differential": -15.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2046
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "OAK",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 62,
        "losses": 95,
        "win_pct": 0.3949,
        "runs_scored": 679.0,
        "runs_allowed": 900.0,
        "run_differential": -221.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.4076,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3248,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7325,
        "offense_index": 0.9642,
        "defense_index": 0.7825,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 7.2,
          "run_differential": -34.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3319
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1273,
        "offense_edge": -0.1025,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0358,
        "defense_strength": -0.0233,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.2175,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0058,
        "run_prevention": 0.9902,
        "strikeout": 1.0067
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "700712",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "700712",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 576.0,
            "k_percent": 23.1,
            "bb_percent": 11.1,
            "woba": 0.274,
            "xwoba": 0.281,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 26.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 35.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.0987,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.6179,
            "whiff_percent": 27.8,
            "swing_percent": 46.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3115,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5964,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.7718,
            "command_and_miss": 0.1121,
            "regression_edge": -0.2,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.8714,
            "barrel_edge": 0.4,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.3286,
            "whiff_edge": 0.3857,
            "bb_edge": -0.5,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.2362
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "700712",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 94,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 94,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 94.08088078222924,
              "release_spin_rate": 2099.1825547544627,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 94,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 94.08088078222924,
                "release_spin_rate": 2099.1825547544627,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 94.0809,
              "release_spin_rate": 2099.1826,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.2362,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.6869,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.4603,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9609,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0223,
          "walk_factor": 1.04,
          "homer_factor": 0.9287,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.007,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "700712",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9609,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9609,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.04,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9287,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0223,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 113,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -6 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260923_LAA@OAK.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260923

20260923_LAA@OAK

home

Jeffrey Springs

True

4.2

4.1

-1

8/5

1/1

6/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 6.180722891566265,
      "WHIP": 1.4674698795180723,
      "IP": 138.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.94,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.933,
      "last_start_IP": 3.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3188,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0271,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9634,
      "walk_factor": 1.002,
      "homer_factor": 1.0345,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 17.8,
      "bb_percent": 9.2,
      "woba": 0.366,
      "xwoba": 0.335,
      "barrel_percent": 9.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.5,
      "whiff_percent": 22.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 804,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "605488",
      "report_date": "20260923",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 9.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.2,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 20.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 108.0,
            "Pitches": 420.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.8,
            "R": 3.8,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 21.6,
            "Pitches": 84.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.9324,
            "WHIP": 1.4189,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.77027,
            "H_per_IP": 1.05405,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36486,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.81081,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16216
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 45.0,
            "ER": 35.0,
            "R": 36.0,
            "H": 51.0,
            "BB": 23.0,
            "SO": 29.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 205.0,
            "Pitches": 797.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.5,
            "R": 3.6,
            "H": 5.1,
            "BB": 2.3,
            "SO": 2.9,
            "HR": 0.9,
            "BF": 20.5,
            "Pitches": 79.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.0,
            "WHIP": 1.6444,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.77778,
            "H_per_IP": 1.13333,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.51111,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.64444,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.2
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 28,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 138.1,
            "ER": 95.0,
            "R": 102.0,
            "H": 147.0,
            "BB": 56.0,
            "SO": 109.0,
            "HR": 33.0,
            "BF": 612.0,
            "Pitches": 2380.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.3929,
            "R": 3.6429,
            "H": 5.25,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 3.8929,
            "HR": 1.1786,
            "BF": 21.8571,
            "Pitches": 85.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.1807,
            "WHIP": 1.4675,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.68675,
            "H_per_IP": 1.06265,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.40482,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.78795,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.23855
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 3.959,
        "predicted_H": 5.881,
        "predicted_BB": 2.296,
        "predicted_SO": 4.277,
        "predicted_HR": 1.015,
        "predicted_ERA": 6.4696,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4847
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.414,
      "form_weight": 0.586,
      "form_reliability": 0.8485,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 9.0,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 7.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.959,
          "final": 3.562,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 5.881,
          "final": 6.7583,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.296,
          "final": 1.7594,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.277,
          "final": 4.9903,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.015,
          "final": 1.0088,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 6.4696,
          "final": 6.4696,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4847,
          "final": 1.4847,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 45.0,
        "ER": 35,
        "H": 51,
        "BB": 23,
        "SO": 29,
        "HR": 9,
        "ERA": 6.999999999999999,
        "WHIP": 1.6444444444444442,
        "K9": 5.799999999999999,
        "HR9": 1.7999999999999998,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-17T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.292324904550856,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 9.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 8.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 28.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8485,
          "prior_weight": 0.1515
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.2,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 8,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_quality_floor",
        "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.2,
          "predicted_ER": 4,
          "predicted_H": 8,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "605488",
      "player_name": "Jeffrey Springs",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "OAK",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
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          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
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          "stats": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "starter_quality_floor",
          "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
          "stats": {
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 4,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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          ],
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "OAK",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 62,
        "losses": 95,
        "win_pct": 0.3949,
        "runs_scored": 679.0,
        "runs_allowed": 900.0,
        "run_differential": -221.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.4076,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3248,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7325,
        "offense_index": 0.9642,
        "defense_index": 0.7825,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 7.2,
          "run_differential": -34.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3319
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "LAA",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 60,
        "losses": 97,
        "win_pct": 0.3822,
        "runs_scored": 632.0,
        "runs_allowed": 721.0,
        "run_differential": -89.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5669,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0255,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5924,
        "offense_index": 0.8975,
        "defense_index": 0.9767,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.3,
          "run_differential": -15.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2046
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1273,
        "offense_edge": -0.0358,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.1025,
        "defense_strength": -0.2175,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0233,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9925,
        "run_prevention": 1.0117,
        "strikeout": 1.0044
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "605488",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "605488",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 584.0,
            "k_percent": 17.8,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.366,
            "xwoba": 0.335,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 34.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.1724,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.3919,
            "whiff_percent": 22.8,
            "swing_percent": 46.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3115,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5964,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.5174,
            "command_and_miss": -0.3836,
            "regression_edge": 0.8857,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.6714,
            "barrel_edge": -0.4222,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.4857,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3286,
            "bb_edge": -0.025,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.2235
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "605488",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 87,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 87,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 85.8733346846715,
              "release_spin_rate": 1993.49048040678,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 87,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 85.8733346846715,
                "release_spin_rate": 1993.49048040678,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 85.8733,
              "release_spin_rate": 1993.4905,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.2235,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.5961,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3188,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0271,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9634,
          "walk_factor": 1.002,
          "homer_factor": 1.0345,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.031,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "605488",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0271,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0271,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.002,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0345,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9634,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 8,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 99,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260923_LAA@OAK.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260923

20260923_MIA@CHC

away

Ryan Gusto

True

4.2

5.1

-2

3/6

3/2

3/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.137096774193548,
      "WHIP": 1.439516129032258,
      "IP": 82.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 22,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.314,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.0,
      "last_start_IP": 4.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.4561,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0388,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.956,
      "walk_factor": 0.958,
      "homer_factor": 1.0835,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.7,
      "bb_percent": 7.0,
      "woba": 0.34,
      "xwoba": 0.339,
      "barrel_percent": 8.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 43.1,
      "whiff_percent": 20.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 208,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 22.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8148,
        "prior_weight": 0.1852
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "687473",
      "report_date": "20260923",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 22,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.0,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 31.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 18.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 114.0,
            "Pitches": 433.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 6.2,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 22.8,
            "Pitches": 86.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6,
            "WHIP": 1.68,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4,
            "H_per_IP": 1.24,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.44,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.72,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 48.2,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 59.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 38.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 218.0,
            "Pitches": 787.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.1,
            "R": 2.3,
            "H": 5.9,
            "BB": 1.5,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 21.8,
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          },
          "rates": {
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        },
        "season": {
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            "SO_per_IP": 0.83468,
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      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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    },
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.073,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "final": 2.2842,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 1.0,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "final": 0.8062,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.9512,
          "final": 3.9512,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
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          "final": 1.5355,
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    },
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        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
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        "games_pitched": 10,
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      },
      "fielding": {
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      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-16T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9386281770013889,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 22.0,
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          "data_weight": 0.8148,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "687473",
      "player_name": "Ryan Gusto",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
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          {
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          {
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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        ],
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIA",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 77,
        "losses": 80,
        "win_pct": 0.4904,
        "runs_scored": 700.0,
        "runs_allowed": 697.0,
        "run_differential": 3.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0191,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4586,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4395,
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          "games": 10,
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          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
        "team": "CHC",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 87,
        "losses": 70,
        "win_pct": 0.5541,
        "runs_scored": 837.0,
        "runs_allowed": 691.0,
        "run_differential": 146.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.9299,
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        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4013,
        "offense_index": 1.19,
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          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": 18.0
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        "available": true,
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": -0.0048,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.19,
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        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0179,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9846,
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        "strikeout": 0.9788
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "687473",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "687473",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 346.0,
            "k_percent": 18.7,
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            "woba": 0.34,
            "xwoba": 0.339,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 38.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 43.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.5277,
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            "whiff_percent": 20.6,
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          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
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            "xwoba": 0.3115,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5964,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
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          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.6607,
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            "regression_edge": 0.0286,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.7857,
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            "hard_hit_edge": -0.7429,
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            "pitch_design_score": -0.0538
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "687473",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 82,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 82,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.90337160517102,
              "release_spin_rate": 2251.003319274584,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "pitches": 82,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.90337160517102,
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                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.9034,
              "release_spin_rate": 2251.0033,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
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            "components": {
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              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.4561,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0388,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.956,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.001,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "687473",
            "espn_rank": null
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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            "factor": 1.0388,
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0388,
            "adjusted": 6
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.958,
            "adjusted": 2
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          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0835,
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.956,
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 92,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260923_MIA@CHC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260923

20260923_MIA@CHC

home

Kevin Gausman

True

5.2

4/6

0/1

5/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.5523255813953485,
      "WHIP": 1.2732558139534884,
      "IP": 172.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 31,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.548,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.733,
      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
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      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9884,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0263,
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      "homer_factor": 1.0133,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 24.3,
      "bb_percent": 6.3,
      "woba": 0.315,
      "xwoba": 0.308,
      "barrel_percent": 7.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.5,
      "whiff_percent": 27.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 183,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
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        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 31.0,
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        "data_weight": 0.8611,
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      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "592332",
      "report_date": "20260923",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 31,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.2,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 27.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 34.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 119.0,
            "Pitches": 487.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 6.8,
            "HR": 1.4,
            "BF": 23.8,
            "Pitches": 97.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.3953,
            "WHIP": 1.1512,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.48837,
            "H_per_IP": 0.94186,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2093,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.18605,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.24419
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 56.1,
            "ER": 29.0,
            "R": 30.0,
            "H": 59.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 60.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 237.0,
            "Pitches": 954.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.9,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.9,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 6.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 23.7,
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          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.6331,
            "WHIP": 1.2604,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.51479,
            "H_per_IP": 1.04734,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21302,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.06509,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17751
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 31,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 172.0,
            "ER": 87.0,
            "R": 94.0,
            "H": 173.0,
            "BB": 46.0,
            "SO": 177.0,
            "HR": 25.0,
            "BF": 728.0,
            "Pitches": 2902.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.8065,
            "R": 3.0323,
            "H": 5.5806,
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            "BF": 23.4839,
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          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5523,
            "WHIP": 1.2733,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.50581,
            "H_per_IP": 1.00581,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26744,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.02907,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14535
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.846,
        "predicted_H": 5.61,
        "predicted_BB": 1.381,
        "predicted_SO": 6.165,
        "predicted_HR": 1.098,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.5206,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2337
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4087,
      "form_weight": 0.5913,
      "form_reliability": 0.8611,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.846,
          "final": 2.5003,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.61,
          "final": 4.952,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.381,
          "final": 0.8166,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 6.165,
          "final": 5.6889,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.098,
          "final": 1.0579,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.5206,
          "final": 4.5206,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2337,
          "final": 1.2337,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 56.1,
        "ER": 29,
        "H": 59,
        "BB": 12,
        "SO": 60,
        "HR": 10,
        "ERA": 4.633136094674556,
        "WHIP": 1.2603550295857988,
        "K9": 9.585798816568047,
        "HR9": 1.5976331360946745,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-15T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0164504798302776,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 31.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8611,
          "prior_weight": 0.1389
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "592332",
      "player_name": "Kevin Gausman",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHC",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
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            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CHC",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 87,
        "losses": 70,
        "win_pct": 0.5541,
        "runs_scored": 837.0,
        "runs_allowed": 691.0,
        "run_differential": 146.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.9299,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.3312,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4013,
        "offense_index": 1.19,
        "defense_index": 1.0179,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": 18.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1951
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIA",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 77,
        "losses": 80,
        "win_pct": 0.4904,
        "runs_scored": 700.0,
        "runs_allowed": 697.0,
        "run_differential": 3.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0191,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4586,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4395,
        "offense_index": 0.9952,
        "defense_index": 1.0092,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0058
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2009,
        "offense_edge": 0.19,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0048,
        "defense_strength": 0.0179,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0092,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0088,
        "run_prevention": 0.9874,
        "strikeout": 1.0064
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "592332",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "592332",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 698.0,
            "k_percent": 24.3,
            "bb_percent": 6.3,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.308,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 39.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.9024,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.4387,
            "whiff_percent": 27.3,
            "swing_percent": 50.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3115,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5964,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0263,
            "command_and_miss": 0.4043,
            "regression_edge": 0.2,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.1,
            "barrel_edge": -0.0889,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.2286,
            "whiff_edge": 0.3143,
            "bb_edge": 0.7,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.044
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "592332",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 95,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 95,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.07749610166415,
              "release_spin_rate": 2007.4215713814062,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 95,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.07749610166415,
                "release_spin_rate": 2007.4215713814062,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.0775,
              "release_spin_rate": 2007.4216,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.044,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.3145,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1363,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9884,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0263,
          "walk_factor": 0.944,
          "homer_factor": 1.0133,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.007,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "592332",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9884,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9884,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.944,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0133,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0263,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 94,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260923_MIA@CHC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260923

20260923_MIL@PHI

away

Logan Henderson

True

6.0

5.0

-3

-2

2/4

2/3

7/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.507142857142857,
      "WHIP": 0.8142857142857143,
      "IP": 93.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 17,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.49,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.0,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.6895,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9414,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0611,
      "walk_factor": 0.91,
      "homer_factor": 0.9852,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 30.7,
      "bb_percent": 4.6,
      "woba": 0.249,
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
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        "profile": {
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          "pitcher_id": "701656",
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          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
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            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
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            "primary_pitch": {
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              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.088,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.6289,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.6895,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9414,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0611,
          "walk_factor": 0.91,
          "homer_factor": 0.9852,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.008,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "701656",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9414,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9414,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.91,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9852,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0611,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 90,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260923_MIL@PHI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260923

20260923_MIL@PHI

home

Aaron Nola

True

6.0

6/4

2/1

7/8

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 4.491089108910891,
      "WHIP": 1.3485148514851484,
      "IP": 168.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 31,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.43,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.267,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0222,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9981,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0229,
      "walk_factor": 0.98,
      "homer_factor": 1.0473,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 23.7,
      "bb_percent": 8.1,
      "woba": 0.342,
      "xwoba": 0.312,
      "barrel_percent": 9.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 40.2,
      "whiff_percent": 27.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 31,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
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        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "605400",
      "report_date": "20260923",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 31,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 31.1,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 6.0,
            "H": 21.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 121.0,
            "Pitches": 471.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.2,
            "R": 1.2,
            "H": 4.2,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 24.2,
            "Pitches": 94.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.7234,
            "WHIP": 1.0532,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.19149,
            "H_per_IP": 0.67021,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38298,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.73404,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09574
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 60.0,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 48.0,
            "BB": 22.0,
            "SO": 57.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 239.0,
            "Pitches": 955.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 5.7,
            "HR": 0.9,
            "BF": 23.9,
            "Pitches": 95.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.1,
            "WHIP": 1.1667,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.23333,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36667,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.95,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15
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        },
        "season": {
          "games": 31,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 168.1,
            "ER": 84.0,
            "R": 86.0,
            "H": 169.0,
            "BB": 58.0,
            "SO": 169.0,
            "HR": 34.0,
            "BF": 714.0,
            "Pitches": 2837.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.7097,
            "R": 2.7742,
            "H": 5.4516,
            "BB": 1.871,
            "SO": 5.4516,
            "HR": 1.0968,
            "BF": 23.0323,
            "Pitches": 91.5161
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.4911,
            "WHIP": 1.3485,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.49901,
            "H_per_IP": 1.00396,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34455,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.00396,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.20198
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.812,
        "predicted_H": 4.871,
        "predicted_BB": 2.229,
        "predicted_SO": 5.256,
        "predicted_HR": 0.828,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.7113,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1805
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4087,
      "form_weight": 0.5913,
      "form_reliability": 0.8611,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.812,
          "final": 2.2975,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.871,
          "final": 5.3324,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.229,
          "final": 2.1354,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 5.256,
          "final": 5.9687,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.828,
          "final": 0.8983,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.7113,
          "final": 2.7113,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1805,
          "final": 1.1805,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 60.0,
        "ER": 14,
        "H": 48,
        "BB": 22,
        "SO": 57,
        "HR": 9,
        "ERA": 2.1,
        "WHIP": 1.1666666666666667,
        "K9": 8.55,
        "HR9": 1.35,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-17T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7291304601064118,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 31.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8611,
          "prior_weight": 0.1389
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "605400",
      "player_name": "Aaron Nola",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PHI",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 157,
        "wins": 87,
        "losses": 70,
        "win_pct": 0.5541,
        "runs_scored": 703.0,
        "runs_allowed": 672.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1975,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4777,
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        "offense_index": 0.9995,
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        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0,
          "run_differential": -6.0
        },
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      },
      "opponent": {
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      "edges": {
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      "player_factors": {
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      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
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        "pitcher_id": "605400",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "605400",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.4,
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
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            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 98,
            "primary_pitch": {
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              "pitches": 98,
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            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 98,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 85.96943619771524,
                "release_spin_rate": 2296.1915924432924,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 85.9694,
              "release_spin_rate": 2296.1916,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.2181,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.5577,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0222,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9981,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0229,
          "walk_factor": 0.98,
          "homer_factor": 1.0473,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.03,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "605400",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9981,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9981,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.98,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0473,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0229,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 114,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260923_MIL@PHI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260923

20260923_MIN@SF

away

Connor Prielipp

True

5.2

5.1

-1

2/4

1/2

4/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.93628808864266,
      "WHIP": 1.296398891966759,
      "IP": 120.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 23,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.302,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.733,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.01,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9991,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0063,
      "walk_factor": 0.982,
      "homer_factor": 1.0133,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 24.4,
      "bb_percent": 8.2,
      "woba": 0.316,
      "xwoba": 0.308,
      "barrel_percent": 6.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 42.0,
      "whiff_percent": 23.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 354,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 23.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8214,
        "prior_weight": 0.1786
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "687570",
      "report_date": "20260923",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 23,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.2,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 21.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 24.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 105.0,
            "Pitches": 388.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 4.2,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 21.0,
            "Pitches": 77.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7,
            "WHIP": 0.9375,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3,
            "H_per_IP": 0.7875,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.15,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.9,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0375
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 53.2,
            "ER": 29.0,
            "R": 29.0,
            "H": 48.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 54.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 219.0,
            "Pitches": 834.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.9,
            "R": 2.9,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 1.7,
            "SO": 5.4,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 21.9,
            "Pitches": 83.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.8634,
            "WHIP": 1.2112,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.54037,
            "H_per_IP": 0.89441,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31677,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.00621,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1118
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 23,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 120.1,
            "ER": 66.0,
            "R": 74.0,
            "H": 114.0,
            "BB": 42.0,
            "SO": 125.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 513.0,
            "Pitches": 1990.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.8696,
            "R": 3.2174,
            "H": 4.9565,
            "BB": 1.8261,
            "SO": 5.4348,
            "HR": 0.6087,
            "BF": 22.3043,
            "Pitches": 86.5217
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.9363,
            "WHIP": 1.2964,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.54848,
            "H_per_IP": 0.94737,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34903,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.03878,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11634
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.413,
        "predicted_H": 4.74,
        "predicted_BB": 1.462,
        "predicted_SO": 5.177,
        "predicted_HR": 0.494,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.0263,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1501
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4255,
      "form_weight": 0.5745,
      "form_reliability": 0.8214,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 23.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8214,
        "prior_weight": 0.1786
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.413,
          "final": 2.6627,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.74,
          "final": 3.5742,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.462,
          "final": 1.2654,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.177,
          "final": 4.6762,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.494,
          "final": 0.2838,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.0263,
          "final": 4.0263,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1501,
          "final": 1.1501,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 53.2,
        "ER": 29,
        "H": 48,
        "BB": 17,
        "SO": 54,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 4.863354037267081,
        "WHIP": 1.2111801242236024,
        "K9": 9.055900621118013,
        "HR9": 1.0062111801242237,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-18T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0411206257378818,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 23.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8214,
          "prior_weight": 0.1786
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "687570",
      "player_name": "Connor Prielipp",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIN",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
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            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
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            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIN",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 84,
        "win_pct": 0.4684,
        "runs_scored": 717.0,
        "runs_allowed": 783.0,
        "run_differential": -66.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4177,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.538,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9557,
        "offense_index": 1.0089,
        "defense_index": 0.9076,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": -11.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1129
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SF",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 65,
        "losses": 93,
        "win_pct": 0.4114,
        "runs_scored": 663.0,
        "runs_allowed": 745.0,
        "run_differential": -82.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.519,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1962,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7152,
        "offense_index": 0.933,
        "defense_index": 0.9539,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
          "run_differential": -8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2088
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0959,
        "offense_edge": 0.0089,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.067,
        "defense_strength": -0.0924,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0461,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0037,
        "run_prevention": 0.9937,
        "strikeout": 1.0082
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "687570",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "687570",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 484.0,
            "k_percent": 24.4,
            "bb_percent": 8.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.308,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 42.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.5018,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.2977,
            "whiff_percent": 23.7,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3115,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5964,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.0876,
            "command_and_miss": 0.1357,
            "regression_edge": 0.2286,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.1,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0889,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.5857,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2,
            "bb_edge": 0.225,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0121
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "687570",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 78,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 78,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.07941742576352,
              "release_spin_rate": 2601.583158009434,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 78,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.07941742576352,
                "release_spin_rate": 2601.583158009434,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.0794,
              "release_spin_rate": 2601.5832,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0121,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.0863,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.01,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9991,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0063,
          "walk_factor": 0.982,
          "homer_factor": 1.0133,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.008,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "687570",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9991,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9991,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.982,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0133,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0063,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 81,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260923_MIN@SF.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260923

20260923_MIN@SF

home

Cesar Perdomo

True

4.2

5.1

4/5

2/0

5/2

Last 10 before this game (4 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.724137931034483,
      "WHIP": 1.5,
      "IP": 19.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 4,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.111,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.111,
      "last_start_IP": 4.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2374,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0202,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9679,
      "walk_factor": 0.9937,
      "homer_factor": 1.0262,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 14.5,
      "bb_percent": 8.4,
      "woba": 0.346,
      "xwoba": 0.338,
      "barrel_percent": 6.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 46.9,
      "whiff_percent": 20.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 313,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 4.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.4444,
        "prior_weight": 0.5556
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "702885",
      "report_date": "20260923",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 4,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 4,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 19.1,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 12.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 83.0,
            "Pitches": 298.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 5.5,
            "BB": 1.75,
            "SO": 3.0,
            "HR": 0.75,
            "BF": 20.75,
            "Pitches": 74.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7241,
            "WHIP": 1.5,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.41379,
            "H_per_IP": 1.13793,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36207,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.62069,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15517
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 4,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 19.1,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 12.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 83.0,
            "Pitches": 298.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 5.5,
            "BB": 1.75,
            "SO": 3.0,
            "HR": 0.75,
            "BF": 20.75,
            "Pitches": 74.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7241,
            "WHIP": 1.5,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.41379,
            "H_per_IP": 1.13793,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36207,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.62069,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15517
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 4,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 19.1,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 12.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 83.0,
            "Pitches": 298.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 5.5,
            "BB": 1.75,
            "SO": 3.0,
            "HR": 0.75,
            "BF": 20.75,
            "Pitches": 74.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7241,
            "WHIP": 1.5,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.41379,
            "H_per_IP": 1.13793,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36207,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.62069,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15517
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.266,
        "predicted_H": 5.096,
        "predicted_BB": 1.796,
        "predicted_SO": 3.865,
        "predicted_HR": 0.734,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.2034,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4205
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5847,
      "form_weight": 0.4153,
      "form_reliability": 0.4444,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 4.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.4444,
        "prior_weight": 0.5556
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.266,
          "final": 2.1105,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 5.096,
          "final": 2.7009,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.796,
          "final": 1.9153,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.865,
          "final": 4.5287,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.734,
          "final": 0.3048,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.2034,
          "final": 4.2034,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4205,
          "final": 1.4205,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "insufficient_data"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 19.1,
        "ER": 8,
        "H": 22,
        "BB": 7,
        "SO": 12,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 3.724137931034482,
        "WHIP": 1.4999999999999998,
        "K9": 5.586206896551723,
        "HR9": 1.3965517241379308,
        "games_pitched": 4,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 4,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 4,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-18T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9489044831644622,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 1.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 4.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.4444,
          "prior_weight": 0.5556
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.2,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 1,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_quality_floor",
        "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.2,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "702885",
      "player_name": "Cesar Perdomo",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SF",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.8,
              "percent_delta": -0.16,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
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            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "starter_quality_floor",
          "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 3.0,
              "percent_delta": 3.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.2,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": {
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              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 3.0,
              "percent_delta": 3.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 4,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.2,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 3.0,
            "percent_delta": 3.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.8,
            "percent_delta": -0.16,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 2,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 3.0,
            "percent_delta": 3.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.8,
            "percent_delta": -0.16,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SF",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 65,
        "losses": 93,
        "win_pct": 0.4114,
        "runs_scored": 663.0,
        "runs_allowed": 745.0,
        "run_differential": -82.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.519,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1962,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7152,
        "offense_index": 0.933,
        "defense_index": 0.9539,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
          "run_differential": -8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2088
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIN",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 84,
        "win_pct": 0.4684,
        "runs_scored": 717.0,
        "runs_allowed": 783.0,
        "run_differential": -66.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4177,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.538,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9557,
        "offense_index": 1.0089,
        "defense_index": 0.9076,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": -11.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1129
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0959,
        "offense_edge": -0.067,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0089,
        "defense_strength": -0.0461,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0924,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9944,
        "run_prevention": 1.0108,
        "strikeout": 0.9964
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "702885",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "702885",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 61.0,
            "k_percent": 14.5,
            "bb_percent": 8.4,
            "woba": 0.346,
            "xwoba": 0.338,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 37.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 46.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 81.2421,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.7299,
            "whiff_percent": 20.0,
            "swing_percent": 50.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3115,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5964,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.6579,
            "command_and_miss": -0.6957,
            "regression_edge": 0.2286,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.7571,
            "barrel_edge": 0.2,
            "hard_hit_edge": -1.2857,
            "whiff_edge": -0.7286,
            "bb_edge": 0.175,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0146
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "702885",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 71,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 71,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.60313256754885,
              "release_spin_rate": 2051.5478690156715,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 71,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.60313256754885,
                "release_spin_rate": 2051.5478690156715,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.6031,
              "release_spin_rate": 2051.5479,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0146,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.1042,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2374,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0202,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9679,
          "walk_factor": 0.9937,
          "homer_factor": 1.0262,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.008,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "702885",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0091,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0091,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9972,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0118,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9856,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 91,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 4 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260923_MIN@SF.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260923

20260923_NYM@TEX

away

Nolan McLean

True

6.0

7.0

0/3

0/1

6/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.1795366795366795,
      "WHIP": 1.193050193050193,
      "IP": 172.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 30,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.756,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.0,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2313,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9803,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0171,
      "walk_factor": 1.01,
      "homer_factor": 0.962,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 26.2,
      "bb_percent": 9.6,
      "woba": 0.293,
      "xwoba": 0.297,
      "barrel_percent": 6.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.6,
      "whiff_percent": 23.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 44,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "690997",
      "report_date": "20260923",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 30,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.0,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 27.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 128.0,
            "Pitches": 473.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 5.4,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 25.6,
            "Pitches": 94.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.4,
            "WHIP": 1.3667,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.26667,
            "H_per_IP": 0.86667,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.5,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.9,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06667
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 59.1,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 22.0,
            "H": 54.0,
            "BB": 28.0,
            "SO": 54.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 253.0,
            "Pitches": 950.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.9,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 2.8,
            "SO": 5.4,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 25.3,
            "Pitches": 95.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.882,
            "WHIP": 1.382,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.32022,
            "H_per_IP": 0.91011,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.47191,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.91011,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11798
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 30,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 172.2,
            "ER": 61.0,
            "R": 73.0,
            "H": 137.0,
            "BB": 69.0,
            "SO": 189.0,
            "HR": 17.0,
            "BF": 722.0,
            "Pitches": 2832.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.0333,
            "R": 2.4333,
            "H": 4.5667,
            "BB": 2.3,
            "SO": 6.3,
            "HR": 0.5667,
            "BF": 24.0667,
            "Pitches": 94.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1795,
            "WHIP": 1.1931,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.35328,
            "H_per_IP": 0.79344,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.39961,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.09459,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09846
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.975,
        "predicted_H": 5.25,
        "predicted_BB": 2.714,
        "predicted_SO": 5.596,
        "predicted_HR": 0.589,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.9907,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3401
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4104,
      "form_weight": 0.5896,
      "form_reliability": 0.8571,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.975,
          "final": 1.1645,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 5.25,
          "final": 3.0955,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.714,
          "final": 1.6002,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.596,
          "final": 5.3514,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.589,
          "final": 0.3473,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.9907,
          "final": 2.9907,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3401,
          "final": 1.3401,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 59.1,
        "ER": 19,
        "H": 54,
        "BB": 28,
        "SO": 54,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 2.8820224719101124,
        "WHIP": 1.3820224719101124,
        "K9": 8.191011235955056,
        "HR9": 1.0617977528089888,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 8,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-17T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8224918833273858,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 0.0,
          "predicted_H": 0.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 30.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8571,
          "prior_weight": 0.1429
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 0,
          "predicted_H": 0,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "690997",
      "player_name": "Nolan McLean",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "NYM",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 0.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
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        {
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    },
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
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        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "690997",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "components": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
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            "pitcher_id": "690997",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 98,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
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              "pitches": 98,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
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              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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            ],
            "summary": {
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
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            "espn_rank": null
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      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
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  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
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  ],
  "provenance": {
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    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260923

20260923_NYM@TEX

home

Cody Bradford

True

4.2

4.1

-1

4/4

0/0

11/1

Last 10 before this game (8 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

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            "SO_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12857
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        },
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        },
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      "blend_segments": {},
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        "predicted_H": 5.411,
        "predicted_BB": 1.416,
        "predicted_SO": 2.994,
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    },
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.612,
          "final": 1.3233,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.6884,
          "final": 4.6884,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.463,
          "final": 1.463,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 38.2,
        "ER": 18,
        "H": 48,
        "BB": 10,
        "SO": 20,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 4.189655172413794,
        "WHIP": 1.5,
        "K9": 4.655172413793104,
        "HR9": 0.9310344827586208,
        "games_pitched": 8,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 8,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 8,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-17T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9725500003362969,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 11.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 8.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.6154,
          "prior_weight": 0.3846
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_quality_floor",
        "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.2,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 11,
          "predicted_HR": 2
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "674003",
      "player_name": "Cody Bradford",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TEX",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 11.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_quality_floor",
          "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_SO": 11.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.3333,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 11.0,
              "after": 11.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.3333,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 11.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.2,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 11.0,
              "after": 11.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.3333,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 11.0,
            "after": 11.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
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          "worse_metrics": 2,
          "biggest_boost": {
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            "before": 3.0,
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            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.3333,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TEX",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 78,
        "losses": 79,
        "win_pct": 0.4968,
        "runs_scored": 656.0,
        "runs_allowed": 693.0,
        "run_differential": -37.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2357,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1783,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.414,
        "offense_index": 0.9328,
        "defense_index": 1.0148,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": 4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0033
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "NYM",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 72,
        "losses": 85,
        "win_pct": 0.4586,
        "runs_scored": 674.0,
        "runs_allowed": 712.0,
        "run_differential": -38.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.242,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.293,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.535,
        "offense_index": 0.9584,
        "defense_index": 0.9877,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": 4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0999
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1032,
        "offense_edge": -0.0672,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0416,
        "defense_strength": 0.0148,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0123,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0062,
        "run_prevention": 0.9867,
        "strikeout": 1.0064
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "674003",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "674003",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 150.0,
            "k_percent": 11.8,
            "bb_percent": 5.9,
            "woba": 0.354,
            "xwoba": 0.345,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.5393,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.3216,
            "whiff_percent": 17.4,
            "swing_percent": 49.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3115,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5964,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.6378,
            "command_and_miss": -0.8743,
            "regression_edge": 0.2571,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.9571,
            "barrel_edge": -0.5111,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.1286,
            "whiff_edge": -1.1,
            "bb_edge": 0.8,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.28
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "674003",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 82,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 82,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 84.66333718879456,
              "release_spin_rate": 1904.8000427733539,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 82,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 84.66333718879456,
                "release_spin_rate": 1904.8000427733539,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 84.6633,
              "release_spin_rate": 1904.8,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.28,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -2.0,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3487,
          "sample_weight": 0.6,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0296,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.939,
          "walk_factor": 0.9616,
          "homer_factor": 1.0387,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.009,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "674003",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0178,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0178,
            "adjusted": 7
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.977,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0232,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9634,
            "adjusted": 2
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 11,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 18,
      "Pitches": 83,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 8 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260923_NYM@TEX.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260923

20260923_SD@LAD

away

Robbie Ray

True

5.0

3.1

-5

-2

5/7

2/1

5/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.603696098562628,
      "WHIP": 1.3305954825462012,
      "IP": 162.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 30,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.379,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.933,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3059,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.026,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9897,
      "walk_factor": 1.06,
      "homer_factor": 1.04,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 20.1,
      "bb_percent": 12.1,
      "woba": 0.313,
      "xwoba": 0.334,
      "barrel_percent": 8.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.1,
      "whiff_percent": 25.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 72,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "592662",
      "report_date": "20260923",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 30,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.2,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 107.0,
            "Pitches": 442.0
          },
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        },
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          },
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        },
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    },
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
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      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
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      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-16T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9683912127945838,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "592662",
      "player_name": "Robbie Ray",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          ],
          "summary": {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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        ],
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "win_pct": 0.5541,
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        "runs_allowed": 656.0,
        "run_differential": 34.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2166,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3949,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1783,
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        "available": true,
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      },
      "opponent": {
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        "games": 157,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 1.2739,
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      "edges": {
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      "player_factors": {
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      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "592662",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "592662",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 633.0,
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          "league_medians": {
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            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
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          "components": {
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            "xwoba_edge": -0.6429,
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            "whiff_edge": 0.0,
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            "pitch_design_score": -0.0795
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "592662",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 89,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
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              "pitches": 89,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.44381407397167,
              "release_spin_rate": 2131.493650416326,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "pitches": 89,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
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                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.4438,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
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            "components": {
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              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3059,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "592662",
            "espn_rank": null
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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            "factor": 1.026,
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          "predicted_H": {
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          "predicted_BB": {
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          "predicted_HR": {
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          "predicted_SO": {
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            "factor": 0.9897,
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 97,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260923_SD@LAD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260923

20260923_SD@LAD

home

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

True

6.2

6.0

-2

-1

6/5

2/1

8/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.5139664804469275,
      "WHIP": 0.8659217877094972,
      "IP": 179.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.63,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.733,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
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      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9461,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0406,
      "walk_factor": 0.938,
      "homer_factor": 0.9395,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 26.1,
      "bb_percent": 6.0,
      "woba": 0.241,
      "xwoba": 0.266,
      "barrel_percent": 6.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.0,
      "whiff_percent": 28.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 6,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
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    "starter_workload_floor": null,
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      {
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      "total_change": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
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        "profile": {
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          "pitcher_id": "808967",
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          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
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          "metrics": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
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            "primary_pitch": {
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            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.064,
              "release_spin_rate": 2177.4957,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0672,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.4801,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.6337,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9461,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0406,
          "walk_factor": 0.938,
          "homer_factor": 0.9395,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.025,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "808967",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9461,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9461,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.938,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9395,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 8.0,
            "factor": 1.0406,
            "adjusted": 8
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.2,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 28,
      "Pitches": 122,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260923_SD@LAD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260923

20260923_STL@PIT

away

Matthew Liberatore

True

5.0

5.2

-2

6/6

1/0

4/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 5.363839285714286,
      "WHIP": 1.4866071428571428,
      "IP": 149.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 30,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.978,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.867,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3828,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0325,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9966,
      "walk_factor": 0.986,
      "homer_factor": 1.0837,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.7,
      "bb_percent": 8.4,
      "woba": 0.357,
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      "barrel_percent": 9.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.9,
      "whiff_percent": 23.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 850,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669461",
      "report_date": "20260923",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 30,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.1,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 31.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 111.0,
            "Pitches": 420.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.8,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 6.2,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 22.2,
            "Pitches": 84.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.0274,
            "WHIP": 1.726,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.78082,
            "H_per_IP": 1.27397,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.45205,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.94521,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.24658
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 50.1,
            "ER": 32.0,
            "R": 33.0,
            "H": 55.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 53.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 215.0,
            "Pitches": 861.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.3,
            "H": 5.5,
            "BB": 1.7,
            "SO": 5.3,
            "HR": 0.9,
            "BF": 21.5,
            "Pitches": 86.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.7219,
            "WHIP": 1.4305,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.63576,
            "H_per_IP": 1.09272,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33775,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.05298,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17881
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        },
        "season": {
          "games": 30,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 149.1,
            "ER": 89.0,
            "R": 95.0,
            "H": 167.0,
            "BB": 55.0,
            "SO": 148.0,
            "HR": 27.0,
            "BF": 652.0,
            "Pitches": 2529.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.9667,
            "R": 3.1667,
            "H": 5.5667,
            "BB": 1.8333,
            "SO": 4.9333,
            "HR": 0.9,
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            "Pitches": 84.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.3638,
            "WHIP": 1.4866,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.59598,
            "H_per_IP": 1.1183,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3683,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.99107,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1808
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 3.334,
        "predicted_H": 5.755,
        "predicted_BB": 1.963,
        "predicted_SO": 4.921,
        "predicted_HR": 1.005,
        "predicted_ERA": 6.0018,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.5436
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4104,
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      "form_reliability": 0.8571,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
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      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.334,
          "final": 3.1969,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.755,
          "final": 5.8555,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.963,
          "final": 1.5678,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.921,
          "final": 4.543,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.005,
          "final": 1.0029,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 6.0018,
          "final": 6.0018,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.5436,
          "final": 1.5436,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 50.1,
        "ER": 32,
        "H": 55,
        "BB": 17,
        "SO": 53,
        "HR": 9,
        "ERA": 5.721854304635762,
        "WHIP": 1.4304635761589406,
        "K9": 9.47682119205298,
        "HR9": 1.6092715231788082,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-16T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.143183992115242,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 30.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8571,
          "prior_weight": 0.1429
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669461",
      "player_name": "Matthew Liberatore",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "STL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
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            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "team": {
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        "win_pct": 0.4841,
        "runs_scored": 704.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1592,
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        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.6,
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          "run_differential": -13.0
        },
        "available": true,
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      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "PIT",
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        "wins": 80,
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        "runs_scored": 750.0,
        "runs_allowed": 719.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1975,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7771,
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          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
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        },
        "available": true,
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      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1355,
        "offense_edge": 0.0009,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
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        "run_prevention": 1.0209,
        "strikeout": 0.9906
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669461",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669461",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "avg_best_speed": 79.4709,
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          },
          "league_medians": {
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            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
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          "components": {
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          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669461",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 88,
            "primary_pitch": {
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              "pitches": 88,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 88,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.58620610763555,
                "release_spin_rate": 2399.3056061920533,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.5862,
              "release_spin_rate": 2399.3056,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0715,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.511,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3828,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0325,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9966,
          "walk_factor": 0.986,
          "homer_factor": 1.0837,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.016,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "669461",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0325,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0325,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.986,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0837,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9966,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 85,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260923_STL@PIT.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260923

20260923_STL@PIT

home

Lake Bachar

True

5.0

1.2

-10

-2

2/1

3/1

5/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.024,
      "WHIP": 1.068,
      "IP": 83.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 50,
      "role_avg_IP": 2.121,
      "recent_avg_IP": 1.867,
      "last_start_IP": 1.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.3229,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9726,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0451,
      "walk_factor": 1.02,
      "homer_factor": 0.9734,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 25.2,
      "bb_percent": 10.1,
      "woba": 0.288,
      "xwoba": 0.29,
      "barrel_percent": 7.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.6,
      "whiff_percent": 29.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 143,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 83.1,
      "season_ERA": 3.024,
      "season_WHIP": 1.068,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 16.977,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7725,
        "prior_weight": 0.2275
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669199",
      "report_date": "20260923",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 50,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 8.0,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 8.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 10.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 37.0,
            "Pitches": 149.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.2,
            "ER": 0.4,
            "R": 0.4,
            "H": 1.6,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 2.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 7.4,
            "Pitches": 29.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.25,
            "WHIP": 1.625,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.25,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.625,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.25,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 17.2,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 12.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 19.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 75.0,
            "Pitches": 312.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.2,
            "ER": 0.4,
            "R": 0.4,
            "H": 1.2,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 1.9,
            "HR": 0.1,
            "BF": 7.5,
            "Pitches": 31.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.0377,
            "WHIP": 1.3585,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.22642,
            "H_per_IP": 0.67925,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.67925,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.07547,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0566
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 50,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 83.1,
            "ER": 28.0,
            "R": 30.0,
            "H": 56.0,
            "BB": 33.0,
            "SO": 87.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 339.0,
            "Pitches": 1363.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.2,
            "ER": 0.56,
            "R": 0.6,
            "H": 1.12,
            "BB": 0.66,
            "SO": 1.74,
            "HR": 0.24,
            "BF": 6.78,
            "Pitches": 27.26
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.024,
            "WHIP": 1.068,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.336,
            "H_per_IP": 0.672,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.396,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.044,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.144
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 2.2,
        "predicted_ER": 0.814,
        "predicted_H": 2.211,
        "predicted_BB": 1.411,
        "predicted_SO": 2.834,
        "predicted_HR": 0.184,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.8438,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4059
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4461,
      "form_weight": 0.5539,
      "form_reliability": 0.7725,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 16.977,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7725,
        "prior_weight": 0.2275
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 2.2,
          "final": 4.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 0.814,
          "final": 2.2353,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.211,
          "final": 3.0091,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.411,
          "final": 2.1199,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 2.834,
          "final": 3.8003,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.184,
          "final": 0.9942,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.8438,
          "final": 2.8438,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4059,
          "final": 1.4059,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 17.2,
        "ER": 4,
        "H": 12,
        "BB": 12,
        "SO": 19,
        "HR": 1,
        "ERA": 2.0377358490566038,
        "WHIP": 1.3584905660377358,
        "K9": 9.679245283018867,
        "HR9": 0.5094339622641509,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-20T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8402639427280665,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 16.977,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7725,
          "prior_weight": 0.2275
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 2
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669199",
      "player_name": "Lake Bachar",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PIT",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -0.6667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1176,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
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              "delta": -0.6667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1176,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": -2.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": -2.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 4,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": -2.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
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              "delta": -2.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": -2.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.5,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": -2.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.5,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.5,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": -0.6667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1177,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 4,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 4,
          "better_metrics": 3,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": -2.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.5,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "PIT",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 80,
        "losses": 77,
        "win_pct": 0.5096,
        "runs_scored": 750.0,
        "runs_allowed": 719.0,
        "run_differential": 31.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1975,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7771,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5796,
        "offense_index": 1.0663,
        "defense_index": 0.9783,
        "current_streak": "W5",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6,
          "run_differential": -5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0674
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "STL",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 76,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.4841,
        "runs_scored": 704.0,
        "runs_allowed": 729.0,
        "run_differential": -25.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1592,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4841,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6433,
        "offense_index": 1.0009,
        "defense_index": 0.9649,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
          "run_differential": -13.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0681
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1355,
        "offense_edge": 0.0663,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0009,
        "defense_strength": -0.0217,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0351,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0047,
        "run_prevention": 0.9955,
        "strikeout": 1.004
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669199",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669199",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 325.0,
            "k_percent": 25.2,
            "bb_percent": 10.1,
            "woba": 0.288,
            "xwoba": 0.29,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 34.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.6165,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.6408,
            "whiff_percent": 29.7,
            "swing_percent": 45.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3115,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5964,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.4054,
            "command_and_miss": 0.3921,
            "regression_edge": -0.0571,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.6143,
            "barrel_edge": -0.1333,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.4714,
            "whiff_edge": 0.6571,
            "bb_edge": -0.25,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.005
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669199",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 31,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 31,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.77481249512137,
              "release_spin_rate": 2697.8801239344625,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 31,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.77481249512137,
                "release_spin_rate": 2697.8801239344625,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.7748,
              "release_spin_rate": 2697.8801,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.005,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.0355,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.3229,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9726,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0451,
          "walk_factor": 1.02,
          "homer_factor": 0.9734,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.002,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "669199",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9726,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9726,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.02,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9734,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0451,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 93,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -10 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260923_STL@PIT.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260923

20260923_TB@NYY

away

Mason Englert

True

5.0

3.2

-4

9/9

2/1

8/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.542056074766355,
      "WHIP": 1.4299065420560748,
      "IP": 35.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 14,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.778,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.778,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3162,
      "sample_weight": 0.512,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0269,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9921,
      "walk_factor": 0.959,
      "homer_factor": 1.0928,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 20.4,
      "bb_percent": 5.1,
      "woba": 0.37,
      "xwoba": 0.362,
      "barrel_percent": 14.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.1,
      "whiff_percent": 23.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 565,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 7.266,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5924,
        "prior_weight": 0.4076
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669438",
      "report_date": "20260923",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 14,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.0,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 97.0,
            "Pitches": 382.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 19.4,
            "Pitches": 76.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1304,
            "WHIP": 1.2174,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.34783,
            "H_per_IP": 1.04348,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.17391,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.95652,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.21739
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 29.0,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 31.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 28.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 124.0,
            "Pitches": 480.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.0,
            "ER": 1.1,
            "R": 1.1,
            "H": 3.1,
            "BB": 0.7,
            "SO": 2.8,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 12.4,
            "Pitches": 48.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4138,
            "WHIP": 1.3103,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.37931,
            "H_per_IP": 1.06897,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.24138,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.96552,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.24138
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 14,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 35.2,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 43.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 32.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 157.0,
            "Pitches": 596.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.2,
            "ER": 1.2857,
            "R": 1.3571,
            "H": 3.0714,
            "BB": 0.5714,
            "SO": 2.2857,
            "HR": 0.6429,
            "BF": 11.2143,
            "Pitches": 42.5714
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5421,
            "WHIP": 1.4299,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.50467,
            "H_per_IP": 1.20561,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2243,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.8972,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.25234
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.852,
        "predicted_H": 4.398,
        "predicted_BB": 1.167,
        "predicted_SO": 3.982,
        "predicted_HR": 0.837,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.9501,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3187
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5222,
      "form_weight": 0.4778,
      "form_reliability": 0.5924,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 7.266,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5924,
        "prior_weight": 0.4076
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.1,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.852,
          "final": 2.4515,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 9.0,
          "form": 4.398,
          "final": 6.8012,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.167,
          "final": 1.602,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 3.982,
          "final": 6.0802,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.837,
          "final": 0.3999,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.9501,
          "final": 3.9501,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3187,
          "final": 1.3187,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 29.0,
        "ER": 11,
        "H": 31,
        "BB": 7,
        "SO": 28,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 3.413793103448276,
        "WHIP": 1.3103448275862069,
        "K9": 8.689655172413794,
        "HR9": 2.1724137931034484,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-07-17T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8852801017500417,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 9.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 8.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 7.266,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.5924,
          "prior_weight": 0.4076
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669438",
      "player_name": "Mason Englert",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TB",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 9.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 9.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 9.0,
              "after": 9.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 9.0,
            "after": 9.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
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            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TB",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 96,
        "losses": 61,
        "win_pct": 0.6115,
        "runs_scored": 713.0,
        "runs_allowed": 627.0,
        "run_differential": 86.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5478,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5414,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9936,
        "offense_index": 1.0137,
        "defense_index": 1.1218,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.0,
          "run_differential": 28.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.267
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "NYY",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 90,
        "losses": 67,
        "win_pct": 0.5732,
        "runs_scored": 716.0,
        "runs_allowed": 582.0,
        "run_differential": 134.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8535,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5605,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.707,
        "offense_index": 1.0179,
        "defense_index": 1.2086,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.167
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1,
        "offense_edge": 0.0137,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0179,
        "defense_strength": 0.1218,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.2086,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0069,
        "run_prevention": 0.9857,
        "strikeout": 1.0016
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669438",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669438",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 128.0,
            "k_percent": 20.4,
            "bb_percent": 5.1,
            "woba": 0.37,
            "xwoba": 0.362,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 14.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.0977,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.209,
            "whiff_percent": 23.9,
            "swing_percent": 52.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3115,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5964,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -1.1369,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0436,
            "regression_edge": 0.2286,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.4429,
            "barrel_edge": -1.7111,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.1714,
            "bb_edge": 1.0,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1879
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669438",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 68,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 68,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 86.50786631271794,
              "release_spin_rate": 2291.8135563532314,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 68,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 86.50786631271794,
                "release_spin_rate": 2291.8135563532314,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 86.5079,
              "release_spin_rate": 2291.8136,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1879,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.3423,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3162,
          "sample_weight": 0.512,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0269,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9921,
          "walk_factor": 0.959,
          "homer_factor": 1.0928,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.008,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "669438",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0138,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0138,
            "adjusted": 7
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.979,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0475,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.996,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 9,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 105,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +5; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260923_TB@NYY.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260923

20260923_TB@NYY

home

Gerrit Cole

True

5.2

2/3

5/3

5/8

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 3.6346153846153846,
      "WHIP": 1.1043956043956045,
      "IP": 121.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 21,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.778,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.733,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0076,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9994,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9943,
      "walk_factor": 0.906,
      "homer_factor": 1.0602,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 24.7,
      "bb_percent": 4.4,
      "woba": 0.303,
      "xwoba": 0.302,
      "barrel_percent": 8.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 45.2,
      "whiff_percent": 21.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 61,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 21.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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        "data_weight": 0.8077,
        "prior_weight": 0.1923
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "543037",
      "report_date": "20260923",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 21,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.2,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 33.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 121.0,
            "Pitches": 420.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 3.4,
            "R": 3.4,
            "H": 6.6,
            "BB": 0.4,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 1.8,
            "BF": 24.2,
            "Pitches": 84.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.3372,
            "WHIP": 1.2209,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.59302,
            "H_per_IP": 1.15116,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.06977,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.80233,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.31395
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 59.1,
            "ER": 22.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 56.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 57.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 242.0,
            "Pitches": 880.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.3,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 5.7,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 24.2,
            "Pitches": 88.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.3371,
            "WHIP": 1.1124,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.37079,
            "H_per_IP": 0.94382,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.16854,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.96067,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16854
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 21,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 121.1,
            "ER": 49.0,
            "R": 50.0,
            "H": 112.0,
            "BB": 22.0,
            "SO": 123.0,
            "HR": 21.0,
            "BF": 497.0,
            "Pitches": 1846.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.3333,
            "R": 2.381,
            "H": 5.3333,
            "BB": 1.0476,
            "SO": 5.8571,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 23.6667,
            "Pitches": 87.9048
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6346,
            "WHIP": 1.1044,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.40385,
            "H_per_IP": 0.92308,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.18132,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.01374,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17308
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.786,
        "predicted_H": 5.892,
        "predicted_BB": 1.007,
        "predicted_SO": 5.226,
        "predicted_HR": 1.257,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.3524,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1976
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4312,
      "form_weight": 0.5688,
      "form_reliability": 0.8077,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 21.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8077,
        "prior_weight": 0.1923
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.786,
          "final": 2.0158,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 5.892,
          "final": 4.2136,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 1.007,
          "final": 2.729,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 5.226,
          "final": 4.266,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.257,
          "final": 1.1462,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.3524,
          "final": 4.3524,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1976,
          "final": 1.1976,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 59.1,
        "ER": 22,
        "H": 56,
        "BB": 10,
        "SO": 57,
        "HR": 10,
        "ERA": 3.3370786516853936,
        "WHIP": 1.1123595505617978,
        "K9": 8.646067415730338,
        "HR9": 1.5168539325842698,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-18T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8669441305183969,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 5.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 21.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8077,
          "prior_weight": 0.1923
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 2,
          "predicted_BB": 5,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "543037",
      "player_name": "Gerrit Cole",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "NYY",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 5.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 5.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.6667,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.6667,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 5.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.2,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.6667,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.6667,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "NYY",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 90,
        "losses": 67,
        "win_pct": 0.5732,
        "runs_scored": 716.0,
        "runs_allowed": 582.0,
        "run_differential": 134.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8535,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5605,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.707,
        "offense_index": 1.0179,
        "defense_index": 1.2086,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.167
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TB",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 96,
        "losses": 61,
        "win_pct": 0.6115,
        "runs_scored": 713.0,
        "runs_allowed": 627.0,
        "run_differential": 86.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5478,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5414,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9936,
        "offense_index": 1.0137,
        "defense_index": 1.1218,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.0,
          "run_differential": 28.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.267
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1,
        "offense_edge": 0.0179,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0137,
        "defense_strength": 0.2086,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1218,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0017,
        "run_prevention": 0.9863,
        "strikeout": 0.9959
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "543037",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "543037",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 470.0,
            "k_percent": 24.7,
            "bb_percent": 4.4,
            "woba": 0.303,
            "xwoba": 0.302,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 45.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 81.5573,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.569,
            "whiff_percent": 21.3,
            "swing_percent": 49.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3115,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5964,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1134,
            "command_and_miss": 0.225,
            "regression_edge": 0.0286,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.2714,
            "barrel_edge": -0.3333,
            "hard_hit_edge": -1.0429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.5429,
            "bb_edge": 1.175,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1217
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "543037",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 84,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 84,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.03748624523112,
              "release_spin_rate": 2372.6649530903105,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 84,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.03748624523112,
                "release_spin_rate": 2372.6649530903105,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.0375,
              "release_spin_rate": 2372.665,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1217,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.8695,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0076,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9994,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9943,
          "walk_factor": 0.906,
          "homer_factor": 1.0602,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.001,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "543037",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9994,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9994,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.906,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0602,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9943,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 5,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 108,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260923_TB@NYY.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260923

20260923_TOR@BAL

away

Max Scherzer

CJ Van Eyk

False

5.0

7/4

1/0

3/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 6.068807339449541,
      "WHIP": 1.3623853211009174,
      "IP": 72.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 16,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.542,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.533,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2219,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0189,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9451,
      "walk_factor": 1.014,
      "homer_factor": 1.0169,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 17.1,
      "bb_percent": 9.8,
      "woba": 0.331,
      "xwoba": 0.32,
      "barrel_percent": 8.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.6,
      "whiff_percent": 20.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 775,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 16.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7619,
        "prior_weight": 0.2381
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "453286",
      "report_date": "20260923",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 16,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.2,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 113.0,
            "Pitches": 421.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 22.6,
            "Pitches": 84.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9036,
            "WHIP": 1.1205,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.43373,
            "H_per_IP": 0.72289,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.39759,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.79518,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07229
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 50.2,
            "ER": 24.0,
            "R": 24.0,
            "H": 41.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 40.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 213.0,
            "Pitches": 829.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 4.1,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 21.3,
            "Pitches": 82.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2632,
            "WHIP": 1.2039,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.47368,
            "H_per_IP": 0.80921,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.39474,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.78947,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09868
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 16,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 72.2,
            "ER": 49.0,
            "R": 49.0,
            "H": 68.0,
            "BB": 31.0,
            "SO": 54.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 315.0,
            "Pitches": 1254.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.0625,
            "R": 3.0625,
            "H": 4.25,
            "BB": 1.9375,
            "SO": 3.375,
            "HR": 0.875,
            "BF": 19.6875,
            "Pitches": 78.375
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.0688,
            "WHIP": 1.3624,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.67431,
            "H_per_IP": 0.93578,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42661,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.74312,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.19266
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.584,
        "predicted_H": 4.347,
        "predicted_BB": 2.052,
        "predicted_SO": 4.243,
        "predicted_HR": 0.599,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.4921,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2359
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4506,
      "form_weight": 0.5494,
      "form_reliability": 0.7619,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 16.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7619,
        "prior_weight": 0.2381
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.584,
          "final": 2.7714,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 4.347,
          "final": 5.5424,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.052,
          "final": 1.578,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.243,
          "final": 3.6829,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.599,
          "final": 0.7797,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.4921,
          "final": 4.4921,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2359,
          "final": 1.2359,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 50.2,
        "ER": 24,
        "H": 41,
        "BB": 20,
        "SO": 40,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 4.2631578947368425,
        "WHIP": 1.2039473684210527,
        "K9": 7.105263157894737,
        "HR9": 0.8881578947368421,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-16T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9734177408081662,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 7.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 16.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7619,
          "prior_weight": 0.2381
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "453286",
      "player_name": "Max Scherzer",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TOR",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
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          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TOR",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 77,
        "losses": 80,
        "win_pct": 0.4904,
        "runs_scored": 632.0,
        "runs_allowed": 675.0,
        "run_differential": -43.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2739,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0255,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2994,
        "offense_index": 0.8949,
        "defense_index": 1.0463,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0766
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "BAL",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 76,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.4841,
        "runs_scored": 697.0,
        "runs_allowed": 727.0,
        "run_differential": -30.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1911,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4395,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6306,
        "offense_index": 0.9869,
        "defense_index": 0.9715,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": -3.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0369
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0397,
        "offense_edge": -0.1051,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0131,
        "defense_strength": 0.0463,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0285,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0003,
        "run_prevention": 0.9953,
        "strikeout": 0.9999
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "453286",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "453286",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 294.0,
            "k_percent": 17.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.8,
            "woba": 0.331,
            "xwoba": 0.32,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 34.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.4694,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.3859,
            "whiff_percent": 20.3,
            "swing_percent": 49.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3115,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5964,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1622,
            "command_and_miss": -0.5836,
            "regression_edge": 0.3143,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.2429,
            "barrel_edge": -0.3556,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.4714,
            "whiff_edge": -0.6857,
            "bb_edge": -0.175,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1349
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "453286",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 84,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 84,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.45516823346536,
              "release_spin_rate": 2266.2043740371455,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 84,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.45516823346536,
                "release_spin_rate": 2266.2043740371455,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.4552,
              "release_spin_rate": 2266.2044,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1349,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.9634,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2219,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0189,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9451,
          "walk_factor": 1.014,
          "homer_factor": 1.0169,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.011,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "453286",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0189,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0189,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.014,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0169,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9451,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 88,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "WRONG_STARTER",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Wrong starter identity",
      "detail": "The projected MLB player ID differs from the official starter ID; performance errors are not attributable to the projected player."
    },
    {
      "code": "FALSE_CONFIRMATION",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Confirmed flag was false assurance",
      "detail": "The server marked this starter confirmed even though a different player started."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260923_TOR@BAL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260923

20260923_TOR@BAL

home

Chris Bassitt

Trey Gibson

False

5.0

6.2

-3

6/3

0/2

8/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.639175257731959,
      "WHIP": 1.5463917525773196,
      "IP": 97.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 19,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.098,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.933,
      "last_start_IP": 6.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3069,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0261,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9486,
      "walk_factor": 0.986,
      "homer_factor": 0.9805,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 16.4,
      "bb_percent": 8.4,
      "woba": 0.346,
      "xwoba": 0.339,
      "barrel_percent": 5.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.2,
      "whiff_percent": 21.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 233,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 19.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7917,
        "prior_weight": 0.2083
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "605135",
      "report_date": "20260923",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 19,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 29.2,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 30.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 26.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 129.0,
            "Pitches": 479.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 25.8,
            "Pitches": 95.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6404,
            "WHIP": 1.382,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.40449,
            "H_per_IP": 1.01124,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37079,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.8764,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10112
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 54.0,
            "ER": 24.0,
            "R": 24.0,
            "H": 59.0,
            "BB": 18.0,
            "SO": 42.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 236.0,
            "Pitches": 856.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 5.9,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 23.6,
            "Pitches": 85.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.0,
            "WHIP": 1.4259,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44444,
            "H_per_IP": 1.09259,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33333,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.77778,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11111
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 19,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 97.0,
            "ER": 50.0,
            "R": 51.0,
            "H": 113.0,
            "BB": 37.0,
            "SO": 72.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 438.0,
            "Pitches": 1641.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.6316,
            "R": 2.6842,
            "H": 5.9474,
            "BB": 1.9474,
            "SO": 3.7895,
            "HR": 0.5263,
            "BF": 23.0526,
            "Pitches": 86.3684
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.6392,
            "WHIP": 1.5464,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.51546,
            "H_per_IP": 1.16495,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38144,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.74227,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10309
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.543,
        "predicted_H": 5.876,
        "predicted_BB": 2.03,
        "predicted_SO": 4.696,
        "predicted_HR": 0.637,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.0953,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.415
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
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      "pitching": {
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
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        {
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    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
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        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "605135",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "components": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "605135",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 96,
            "primary_pitch": {
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              "pitches": 96,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
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              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
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            ],
            "summary": {
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9486,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 92,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "WRONG_STARTER",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Wrong starter identity",
      "detail": "The projected MLB player ID differs from the official starter ID; performance errors are not attributable to the projected player."
    },
    {
      "code": "FALSE_CONFIRMATION",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Confirmed flag was false assurance",
      "detail": "The server marked this starter confirmed even though a different player started."
    },
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 3 ER."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260923_TOR@BAL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260923

20260923_WAS@DET

away

Richard Lovelady

True

3.2

1.1

-7

-2

3/1

0/1

8/0

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.857142857142857,
      "WHIP": 1.836734693877551,
      "IP": 32.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 36,
      "role_avg_IP": 1.467,
      "recent_avg_IP": 1.467,
      "last_start_IP": 1.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.213,
      "sample_weight": 0.564,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0181,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9832,
      "walk_factor": 1.0462,
      "homer_factor": 0.9785,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.9,
      "bb_percent": 13.2,
      "woba": 0.373,
      "xwoba": 0.352,
      "barrel_percent": 5.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 29.5,
      "whiff_percent": 22.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 424,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 6.655,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.571,
        "prior_weight": 0.429
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "663992",
      "report_date": "20260923",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 36,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 3.0,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 0.0,
            "SO": 3.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 16.0,
            "Pitches": 65.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 0.2,
            "ER": 0.4,
            "R": 0.8,
            "H": 1.2,
            "BB": 0.0,
            "SO": 0.6,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 3.2,
            "Pitches": 13.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.0,
            "WHIP": 2.0,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.66667,
            "H_per_IP": 2.0,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.0,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.33333
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 11.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 6.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 32.0,
            "Pitches": 125.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 0.2,
            "ER": 0.5,
            "R": 0.7,
            "H": 1.1,
            "BB": 0.2,
            "SO": 0.6,
            "HR": 0.1,
            "BF": 3.2,
            "Pitches": 12.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.9412,
            "WHIP": 2.2941,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.88235,
            "H_per_IP": 1.94118,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35294,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.05882,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17647
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 36,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 32.2,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 39.0,
            "BB": 21.0,
            "SO": 30.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 159.0,
            "Pitches": 592.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.3889,
            "R": 0.5,
            "H": 1.0833,
            "BB": 0.5833,
            "SO": 0.8333,
            "HR": 0.1111,
            "BF": 4.4167,
            "Pitches": 16.4444
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8571,
            "WHIP": 1.8367,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "H_per_IP": 1.19388,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.64286,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.91837,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12245
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 2.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.401,
        "predicted_H": 3.323,
        "predicted_BB": 0.696,
        "predicted_SO": 2.222,
        "predicted_HR": 0.452,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.537,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.7642
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5313,
      "form_weight": 0.4687,
      "form_reliability": 0.571,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 6.655,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.571,
        "prior_weight": 0.429
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.1,
          "form": 2.1,
          "final": 3.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.401,
          "final": 1.7192,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.323,
          "final": 3.1514,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.696,
          "final": 0.3262,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 2.222,
          "final": 5.2916,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.452,
          "final": 0.7431,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.537,
          "final": 5.537,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.7642,
          "final": 1.7642,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 5.2,
        "ER": 5,
        "H": 11,
        "BB": 2,
        "SO": 6,
        "HR": 1,
        "ERA": 7.941176470588236,
        "WHIP": 2.294117647058824,
        "K9": 9.529411764705884,
        "HR9": 1.5882352941176472,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-19T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0777605704898245,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 8.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 6.655,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.571,
          "prior_weight": 0.429
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 3.2,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 8,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "663992",
      "player_name": "Richard Lovelady",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "WAS",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 3.2,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
              "after": 3.2,
              "delta": -1.1333,
              "percent_delta": -0.2615,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
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              "delta": -1.1333,
              "percent_delta": -0.2615,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 3.2,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.3333,
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            "delta": -1.1333,
            "percent_delta": -0.2615,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 8.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "before": 4.3333,
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "WAS",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 84,
        "win_pct": 0.4684,
        "runs_scored": 803.0,
        "runs_allowed": 796.0,
        "run_differential": 7.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0443,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.0823,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.038,
        "offense_index": 1.1298,
        "defense_index": 0.8929,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": 7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0486
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "DET",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 84,
        "win_pct": 0.4684,
        "runs_scored": 707.0,
        "runs_allowed": 634.0,
        "run_differential": 73.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.462,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4747,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0127,
        "offense_index": 0.9947,
        "defense_index": 1.121,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": 10.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0296
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.019,
        "offense_edge": 0.1298,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0053,
        "defense_strength": -0.1071,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.121,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9978,
        "run_prevention": 1.0089,
        "strikeout": 1.001
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "663992",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "663992",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 141.0,
            "k_percent": 18.9,
            "bb_percent": 13.2,
            "woba": 0.373,
            "xwoba": 0.352,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 29.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.0815,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.2021,
            "whiff_percent": 22.9,
            "swing_percent": 45.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3115,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5964,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.5227,
            "command_and_miss": -0.5079,
            "regression_edge": 0.6,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.1571,
            "barrel_edge": 0.3111,
            "hard_hit_edge": 1.2,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3143,
            "bb_edge": -1.025,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.16
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "663992",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 10,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 10,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.007013701801,
              "release_spin_rate": 2396.295259915072,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 10,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.007013701801,
                "release_spin_rate": 2396.295259915072,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.007,
              "release_spin_rate": 2396.2953,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.16,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.1427,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.213,
          "sample_weight": 0.564,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0181,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9832,
          "walk_factor": 1.0462,
          "homer_factor": 0.9785,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.021,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "663992",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0102,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0102,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0261,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9879,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9905,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 3.2,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 14,
      "Pitches": 67,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -7 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260923_WAS@DET.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260923

20260923_WAS@DET

home

Framber Valdez

True

6.0

5.1

-2

2/4

4/3

7/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.055335968379447,
      "WHIP": 1.3636363636363638,
      "IP": 168.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 30,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.622,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.0,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2059,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0175,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9474,
      "walk_factor": 0.992,
      "homer_factor": 1.0046,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 17.5,
      "bb_percent": 8.7,
      "woba": 0.317,
      "xwoba": 0.322,
      "barrel_percent": 5.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.8,
      "whiff_percent": 20.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 136,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "664285",
      "report_date": "20260923",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 30,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.0,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 18.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 123.0,
            "Pitches": 463.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 24.6,
            "Pitches": 92.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7,
            "WHIP": 1.2,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3,
            "H_per_IP": 0.86667,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33333,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.6,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 60.1,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 25.0,
            "H": 55.0,
            "BB": 26.0,
            "SO": 41.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 257.0,
            "Pitches": 944.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.1,
            "R": 2.5,
            "H": 5.5,
            "BB": 2.6,
            "SO": 4.1,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 25.7,
            "Pitches": 94.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1326,
            "WHIP": 1.3425,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.34807,
            "H_per_IP": 0.9116,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.43094,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.67956,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08287
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 30,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 168.2,
            "ER": 76.0,
            "R": 85.0,
            "H": 166.0,
            "BB": 64.0,
            "SO": 129.0,
            "HR": 16.0,
            "BF": 736.0,
            "Pitches": 2681.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.5333,
            "R": 2.8333,
            "H": 5.5333,
            "BB": 2.1333,
            "SO": 4.3,
            "HR": 0.5333,
            "BF": 24.5333,
            "Pitches": 89.3667
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.0553,
            "WHIP": 1.3636,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.45059,
            "H_per_IP": 0.98419,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37945,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.76482,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09486
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.2,
        "predicted_H": 5.447,
        "predicted_BB": 2.239,
        "predicted_SO": 4.162,
        "predicted_HR": 0.599,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.3317,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2932
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4104,
      "form_weight": 0.5896,
      "form_reliability": 0.8571,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.2,
          "final": 2.1179,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 5.447,
          "final": 4.0324,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.239,
          "final": 2.9617,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 4.162,
          "final": 5.3266,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.599,
          "final": 0.3532,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.3317,
          "final": 3.3317,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2932,
          "final": 1.2932,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 60.1,
        "ER": 21,
        "H": 55,
        "BB": 26,
        "SO": 41,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 3.1325966850828726,
        "WHIP": 1.3425414364640884,
        "K9": 6.116022099447513,
        "HR9": 0.7458563535911602,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-17T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8496944564231705,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 30.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8571,
          "prior_weight": 0.1429
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "664285",
      "player_name": "Framber Valdez",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "DET",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 4.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "percent_delta": null,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "DET",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 84,
        "win_pct": 0.4684,
        "runs_scored": 707.0,
        "runs_allowed": 634.0,
        "run_differential": 73.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.462,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4747,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0127,
        "offense_index": 0.9947,
        "defense_index": 1.121,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": 10.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0296
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "WAS",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 84,
        "win_pct": 0.4684,
        "runs_scored": 803.0,
        "runs_allowed": 796.0,
        "run_differential": 7.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0443,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.0823,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.038,
        "offense_index": 1.1298,
        "defense_index": 0.8929,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": 7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0486
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.019,
        "offense_edge": -0.0053,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1298,
        "defense_strength": 0.121,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.1071,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9977,
        "run_prevention": 1.0096,
        "strikeout": 0.989
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "664285",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "664285",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 709.0,
            "k_percent": 17.5,
            "bb_percent": 8.7,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.322,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 28.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 41.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.314,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.6485,
            "whiff_percent": 20.3,
            "swing_percent": 46.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3115,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5964,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.0953,
            "command_and_miss": -0.5029,
            "regression_edge": -0.1429,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.3,
            "barrel_edge": 0.3333,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.5571,
            "whiff_edge": -0.6857,
            "bb_edge": 0.1,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0943
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "664285",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 92,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 92,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.18041594178791,
              "release_spin_rate": 2286.863141165475,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 92,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.18041594178791,
                "release_spin_rate": 2286.863141165475,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.1804,
              "release_spin_rate": 2286.8631,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0943,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.6733,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2059,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0175,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9474,
          "walk_factor": 0.992,
          "homer_factor": 1.0046,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.005,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "664285",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0175,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0175,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.992,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0046,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9474,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 107,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260923_WAS@DET.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260924

20260924_ARI@COL

away

Eduardo Rodriguez

True

5.2

6.0

-1

9/9

1/0

7/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.8911070780399277,
      "WHIP": 1.2304900181488203,
      "IP": 183.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 31,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.925,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.733,
      "last_start_IP": 5.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1048,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0089,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9611,
      "walk_factor": 0.98,
      "homer_factor": 0.9833,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.4,
      "bb_percent": 8.1,
      "woba": 0.298,
      "xwoba": 0.318,
      "barrel_percent": 7.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.0,
      "whiff_percent": 21.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 12,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "593958",
      "report_date": "20260924",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 31,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.2,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 30.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 126.0,
            "Pitches": 505.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 3.4,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 2.6,
            "SO": 6.0,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 25.2,
            "Pitches": 101.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.3953,
            "WHIP": 1.3605,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.48837,
            "H_per_IP": 0.90698,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.45349,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.04651,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13953
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 61.0,
            "ER": 23.0,
            "R": 28.0,
            "H": 56.0,
            "BB": 18.0,
            "SO": 54.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 256.0,
            "Pitches": 1022.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.3,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 5.4,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 25.6,
            "Pitches": 102.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.3934,
            "WHIP": 1.2131,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.37705,
            "H_per_IP": 0.91803,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.29508,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.88525,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08197
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 31,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 183.2,
            "ER": 59.0,
            "R": 66.0,
            "H": 164.0,
            "BB": 62.0,
            "SO": 140.0,
            "HR": 18.0,
            "BF": 761.0,
            "Pitches": 2975.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.9032,
            "R": 2.129,
            "H": 5.2903,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.5161,
            "HR": 0.5806,
            "BF": 24.5484,
            "Pitches": 95.9677
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.8911,
            "WHIP": 1.2305,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.32123,
            "H_per_IP": 0.89292,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33757,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.76225,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.098
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.499,
        "predicted_H": 5.349,
        "predicted_BB": 2.184,
        "predicted_SO": 5.439,
        "predicted_HR": 0.677,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.8621,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2934
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4087,
      "form_weight": 0.5913,
      "form_reliability": 0.8611,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.499,
          "final": 3.1124,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 9.0,
          "form": 5.349,
          "final": 6.8411,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.184,
          "final": 1.7001,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.439,
          "final": 5.6683,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.677,
          "final": 0.4003,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.8621,
          "final": 3.8621,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2934,
          "final": 1.2934,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 61.0,
        "ER": 23,
        "H": 56,
        "BB": 18,
        "SO": 54,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 3.39344262295082,
        "WHIP": 1.213114754098361,
        "K9": 7.9672131147541,
        "HR9": 0.7377049180327869,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-18T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8749678331756804,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 9.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 31.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8611,
          "prior_weight": 0.1389
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 9,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "593958",
      "player_name": "Eduardo Rodriguez",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ARI",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 9.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 9.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 9.0,
              "after": 9.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 2,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 9.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 9.0,
              "after": 9.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.2,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.1667,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.1667,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 9.0,
            "after": 9.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.1667,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 3,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 2,
          "better_metrics": 2,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.1667,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "ARI",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 84,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.5316,
        "runs_scored": 705.0,
        "runs_allowed": 699.0,
        "run_differential": 6.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.038,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.462,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4241,
        "offense_index": 0.9946,
        "defense_index": 1.0141,
        "current_streak": "W4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
          "run_differential": -1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0315
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "COL",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 57,
        "losses": 101,
        "win_pct": 0.3608,
        "runs_scored": 732.0,
        "runs_allowed": 916.0,
        "run_differential": -184.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.1646,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6329,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7975,
        "offense_index": 1.0326,
        "defense_index": 0.7739,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.9,
          "run_differential": -22.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3661
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.3976,
        "offense_edge": -0.0054,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0326,
        "defense_strength": 0.0141,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.2261,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.015,
        "run_prevention": 0.9839,
        "strikeout": 1.0093
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "593958",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "593958",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 732.0,
            "k_percent": 18.4,
            "bb_percent": 8.1,
            "woba": 0.298,
            "xwoba": 0.318,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 33.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.0784,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.2678,
            "whiff_percent": 21.9,
            "swing_percent": 48.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.913,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0858,
            "command_and_miss": -0.3414,
            "regression_edge": -0.5714,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.2,
            "barrel_edge": -0.0667,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.7,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4571,
            "bb_edge": 0.25,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0867
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "593958",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 100,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 100,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.31577015688,
              "release_spin_rate": 2173.932775026911,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 100,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.31577015688,
                "release_spin_rate": 2173.932775026911,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.3158,
              "release_spin_rate": 2173.9328,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0867,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.6192,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1048,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0089,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9611,
          "walk_factor": 0.98,
          "homer_factor": 0.9833,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.02,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "593958",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0089,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0089,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.98,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9833,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9611,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 9,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 27,
      "Pitches": 114,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260924_ARI@COL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260924

20260924_ARI@COL

home

Tanner Gordon

True

4.1

3.1

-3

7/12

1/4

1/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 6.009966777408638,
      "WHIP": 1.5548172757475083,
      "IP": 100.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 23,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.727,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.733,
      "last_start_IP": 3.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3683,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0313,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9663,
      "walk_factor": 0.908,
      "homer_factor": 1.105,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 18.8,
      "bb_percent": 4.5,
      "woba": 0.39,
      "xwoba": 0.335,
      "barrel_percent": 10.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 42.4,
      "whiff_percent": 22.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 296,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 23.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8214,
        "prior_weight": 0.1786
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "685299",
      "report_date": "20260924",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 23,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.2,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 37.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 20.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 110.0,
            "Pitches": 403.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.6,
            "R": 3.6,
            "H": 7.4,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 80.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.8451,
            "WHIP": 1.7746,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.76056,
            "H_per_IP": 1.56338,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21127,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.84507,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12676
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 44.1,
            "ER": 30.0,
            "R": 32.0,
            "H": 63.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 35.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 200.0,
            "Pitches": 689.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 6.3,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 3.5,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 20.0,
            "Pitches": 68.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.0902,
            "WHIP": 1.6015,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.67669,
            "H_per_IP": 1.42105,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.18045,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.78947,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13534
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 23,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 100.1,
            "ER": 67.0,
            "R": 69.0,
            "H": 136.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 84.0,
            "HR": 19.0,
            "BF": 448.0,
            "Pitches": 1596.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 2.913,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.913,
            "BB": 0.8696,
            "SO": 3.6522,
            "HR": 0.8261,
            "BF": 19.4783,
            "Pitches": 69.3913
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.01,
            "WHIP": 1.5548,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.66777,
            "H_per_IP": 1.35548,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.19934,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.83721,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18937
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 3.055,
        "predicted_H": 6.253,
        "predicted_BB": 1.038,
        "predicted_SO": 3.813,
        "predicted_HR": 0.647,
        "predicted_ERA": 6.0891,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.6144
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4255,
      "form_weight": 0.5745,
      "form_reliability": 0.8214,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 23.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8214,
        "prior_weight": 0.1786
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.055,
          "final": 3.0316,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 6.253,
          "final": 6.5708,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.038,
          "final": 1.0218,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 3.813,
          "final": 2.6162,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.647,
          "final": 0.7972,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 6.0891,
          "final": 6.0891,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.6144,
          "final": 1.6144,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 44.1,
        "ER": 30,
        "H": 63,
        "BB": 8,
        "SO": 35,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 6.090225563909775,
        "WHIP": 1.6015037593984964,
        "K9": 7.105263157894737,
        "HR9": 1.218045112781955,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-17T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.1880656391660662,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 7.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 1.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 23.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8214,
          "prior_weight": 0.1786
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.1,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 7,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 1,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "685299",
      "player_name": "Tanner Gordon",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "COL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 1.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.1,
            "predicted_SO": 1.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": -0.5667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1214,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "delta": -0.5667,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.1,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 1.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "delta": -0.5667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1214,
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "COL",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 57,
        "losses": 101,
        "win_pct": 0.3608,
        "runs_scored": 732.0,
        "runs_allowed": 916.0,
        "run_differential": -184.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.1646,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6329,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7975,
        "offense_index": 1.0326,
        "defense_index": 0.7739,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.9,
          "run_differential": -22.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3661
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "ARI",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 84,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.5316,
        "runs_scored": 705.0,
        "runs_allowed": 699.0,
        "run_differential": 6.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.038,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.462,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4241,
        "offense_index": 0.9946,
        "defense_index": 1.0141,
        "current_streak": "W4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
          "run_differential": -1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0315
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.3976,
        "offense_edge": 0.0326,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0054,
        "defense_strength": -0.2261,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0141,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9775,
        "run_prevention": 1.0416,
        "strikeout": 0.9885
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "685299",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "685299",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 422.0,
            "k_percent": 18.8,
            "bb_percent": 4.5,
            "woba": 0.39,
            "xwoba": 0.335,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 10.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 42.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.9892,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.5821,
            "whiff_percent": 22.4,
            "swing_percent": 53.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.913,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.8774,
            "command_and_miss": -0.1107,
            "regression_edge": 1.5714,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.6857,
            "barrel_edge": -0.7333,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.6429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3857,
            "bb_edge": 1.15,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0666
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "685299",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 79,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 79,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.67473641018984,
              "release_spin_rate": 2166.0467400522407,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 79,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.67473641018984,
                "release_spin_rate": 2166.0467400522407,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.6747,
              "release_spin_rate": 2166.0467,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0666,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.4756,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3683,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0313,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9663,
          "walk_factor": 0.908,
          "homer_factor": 1.105,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.055,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "685299",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0313,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0313,
            "adjusted": 7
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.908,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.105,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9663,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.1,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 1,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 92,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 7",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +7; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +5."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260924_ARI@COL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260924

20260924_CHW@KC

away

David Sandlin

True

5.0

6.0

-2

3/5

3/0

10/7

Last 10 before this game (7 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 6.29126213592233,
      "WHIP": 1.2815533980582523,
      "IP": 34.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 7,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.133,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.133,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.023,
      "sample_weight": 0.504,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.998,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0009,
      "walk_factor": 0.999,
      "homer_factor": 0.9964,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.8,
      "bb_percent": 9.0,
      "woba": 0.323,
      "xwoba": 0.31,
      "barrel_percent": 8.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.7,
      "whiff_percent": 24.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 801,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.7627118644067797,
        "last_10": 0.23728813559322032
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 7.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5833,
        "prior_weight": 0.4167
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "689818",
      "report_date": "20260924",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 7,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.1,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 25.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 103.0,
            "Pitches": 412.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.6,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 20.6,
            "Pitches": 82.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.5479,
            "WHIP": 1.274,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.61644,
            "H_per_IP": 0.90411,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36986,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0274,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16438
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 7,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 34.1,
            "ER": 24.0,
            "R": 27.0,
            "H": 31.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 33.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 145.0,
            "Pitches": 553.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.4286,
            "R": 3.8571,
            "H": 4.4286,
            "BB": 1.8571,
            "SO": 4.7143,
            "HR": 0.8571,
            "BF": 20.7143,
            "Pitches": 79.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.2913,
            "WHIP": 1.2816,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.69903,
            "H_per_IP": 0.90291,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37864,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.96117,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17476
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 7,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 34.1,
            "ER": 24.0,
            "R": 27.0,
            "H": 31.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 33.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 145.0,
            "Pitches": 553.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.4286,
            "R": 3.8571,
            "H": 4.4286,
            "BB": 1.8571,
            "SO": 4.7143,
            "HR": 0.8571,
            "BF": 20.7143,
            "Pitches": 79.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.2913,
            "WHIP": 1.2816,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.69903,
            "H_per_IP": 0.90291,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37864,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.96117,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17476
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.919,
        "predicted_H": 4.683,
        "predicted_BB": 1.868,
        "predicted_SO": 4.903,
        "predicted_HR": 0.795,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.2539,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3102
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5261,
      "form_weight": 0.4739,
      "form_reliability": 0.5833,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 7.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5833,
        "prior_weight": 0.4167
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.919,
          "final": 2.9616,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 4.683,
          "final": 2.7455,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.868,
          "final": 2.4635,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 9.0,
          "form": 4.903,
          "final": 7.0583,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.795,
          "final": 0.3768,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.2539,
          "final": 5.2539,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3102,
          "final": 1.3102,
          "source": "form_only"
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    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "HR": 0,
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        "R": 0,
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      },
      "pitching": {
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      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 7,
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      },
      "games_count": 7,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-18T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 1.2026834944839726,
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        "stats": {
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          "predicted_H": 1.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 7.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.5833,
          "prior_weight": 0.4167
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_quality_floor",
        "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 9,
          "predicted_HR": 0
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "689818",
      "player_name": "David Sandlin",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHW",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
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          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 9.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_deboost": null
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
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            {
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "percent_delta": 0.1111,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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              "percent_delta": 0.1111,
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              "material": true
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            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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        ],
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          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "boosted"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CHW",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 81,
        "losses": 77,
        "win_pct": 0.5127,
        "runs_scored": 751.0,
        "runs_allowed": 707.0,
        "run_differential": 44.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2785,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7532,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4747,
        "offense_index": 1.0594,
        "defense_index": 1.0026,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
          "run_differential": 8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0449
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "KC",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 68,
        "losses": 90,
        "win_pct": 0.4304,
        "runs_scored": 672.0,
        "runs_allowed": 776.0,
        "run_differential": -104.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.6582,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2532,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9114,
        "offense_index": 0.948,
        "defense_index": 0.9135,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7,
          "run_differential": -17.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2448
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      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2897,
        "offense_edge": 0.0594,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.052,
        "defense_strength": 0.0026,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0865,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0137,
        "run_prevention": 0.9769,
        "strikeout": 1.0129
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "689818",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "689818",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 126.0,
            "k_percent": 22.8,
            "bb_percent": 9.0,
            "woba": 0.323,
            "xwoba": 0.31,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 33.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.7945,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.0105,
            "whiff_percent": 24.6,
            "swing_percent": 44.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.913,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.0078,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0314,
            "regression_edge": 0.3714,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.0286,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2222,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.6,
            "whiff_edge": -0.0714,
            "bb_edge": 0.025,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0587
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "689818",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 83,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 83,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.91118713178139,
              "release_spin_rate": 2319.243590227783,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 83,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.91118713178139,
                "release_spin_rate": 2319.243590227783,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.9112,
              "release_spin_rate": 2319.2436,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0587,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.419,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.023,
          "sample_weight": 0.504,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.998,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0009,
          "walk_factor": 0.999,
          "homer_factor": 0.9964,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.013,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "689818",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.999,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.999,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9995,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9982,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0005,
            "adjusted": 4
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 10,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 96,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 7 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260924_CHW@KC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260924

20260924_CHW@KC

home

Randy Dobnak

True

5.2

1.1

-13

2/6

5/1

6/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.0821917808219177,
      "WHIP": 1.3287671232876712,
      "IP": 73.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 14,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.278,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.467,
      "last_start_IP": 3.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3241,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0275,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9291,
      "walk_factor": 0.98,
      "homer_factor": 0.983,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 15.6,
      "bb_percent": 8.1,
      "woba": 0.316,
      "xwoba": 0.329,
      "barrel_percent": 4.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.7,
      "whiff_percent": 19.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 97,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 73.0,
      "season_ERA": 3.082,
      "season_WHIP": 1.329,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 14.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7368,
        "prior_weight": 0.2632
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "677976",
      "report_date": "20260924",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 14,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.1,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 28.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 19.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 112.0,
            "Pitches": 417.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.4,
            "R": 3.4,
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            "H_per_IP": 1.02439,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.18293,
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            "HR_per_IP": 0.18293
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        },
        "last_10": {
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        },
        "season": {
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          "per_game": {
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      "blend_segments": {},
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      "pitching": {
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      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-18T00:00:00"
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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        {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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          {
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "opponent": {
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": -0.052,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
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      "player_factors": {
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        "strikeout": 0.9866
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "677976",
        "profile": {
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          "pitcher_id": "677976",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "components": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "677976",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 87,
            "primary_pitch": {
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              "pitches": 87,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
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              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
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              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.4576,
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.983,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9291,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 5,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 109,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -13 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -4."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260924_CHW@KC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260924

20260924_CIN@ATL

away

Brady Singer

True

4.0

3.0

-3

7/7

1/2

7/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.6688311688311686,
      "WHIP": 1.5649350649350648,
      "IP": 154.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 30,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.133,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.467,
      "last_start_IP": 3.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.6784,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0577,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9703,
      "walk_factor": 0.988,
      "homer_factor": 1.1236,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 17.7,
      "bb_percent": 8.5,
      "woba": 0.372,
      "xwoba": 0.361,
      "barrel_percent": 10.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 43.0,
      "whiff_percent": 24.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 591,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "663903",
      "report_date": "20260924",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 30,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 22.1,
            "ER": 28.0,
            "R": 28.0,
            "H": 37.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 18.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 124.0,
            "Pitches": 466.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 5.6,
            "R": 5.6,
            "H": 7.4,
            "BB": 3.4,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 24.8,
            "Pitches": 93.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 11.2836,
            "WHIP": 2.4179,
            "ER_per_IP": 1.25373,
            "H_per_IP": 1.65672,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.76119,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.80597,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.26866
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 50.2,
            "ER": 45.0,
            "R": 45.0,
            "H": 70.0,
            "BB": 28.0,
            "SO": 37.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 253.0,
            "Pitches": 966.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 4.5,
            "R": 4.5,
            "H": 7.0,
            "BB": 2.8,
            "SO": 3.7,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 25.3,
            "Pitches": 96.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.9934,
            "WHIP": 1.9342,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.88816,
            "H_per_IP": 1.38158,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.55263,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.73026,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.19737
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 30,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 154.0,
            "ER": 97.0,
            "R": 102.0,
            "H": 181.0,
            "BB": 60.0,
            "SO": 125.0,
            "HR": 31.0,
            "BF": 707.0,
            "Pitches": 2738.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.2333,
            "R": 3.4,
            "H": 6.0333,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.1667,
            "HR": 1.0333,
            "BF": 23.5667,
            "Pitches": 91.2667
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.6688,
            "WHIP": 1.5649,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.62987,
            "H_per_IP": 1.17532,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38961,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.81169,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.2013
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 4.371,
        "predicted_H": 6.551,
        "predicted_BB": 2.723,
        "predicted_SO": 3.77,
        "predicted_HR": 1.026,
        "predicted_ERA": 8.3784,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.9752
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4104,
      "form_weight": 0.5896,
      "form_reliability": 0.8571,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.371,
          "final": 4.6291,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 6.551,
          "final": 6.7353,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.723,
          "final": 2.0159,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 3.77,
          "final": 5.0955,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.026,
          "final": 1.0153,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 8.3784,
          "final": 8.3784,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.9752,
          "final": 1.9752,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 50.2,
        "ER": 45,
        "H": 70,
        "BB": 28,
        "SO": 37,
        "HR": 10,
        "ERA": 7.99342105263158,
        "WHIP": 1.9342105263157896,
        "K9": 6.572368421052632,
        "HR9": 1.7763157894736843,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 2,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-17T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.4104928008202016,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 5.0,
          "predicted_H": 7.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 30.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8571,
          "prior_weight": 0.1429
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.0,
          "predicted_ER": 5,
          "predicted_H": 7,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "663903",
      "player_name": "Brady Singer",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CIN",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": -0.6667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1429,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
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              "before": 4.6667,
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              "delta": -0.6667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1429,
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              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          },
          {
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
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            "delta": -0.6667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1429,
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            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CIN",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 85,
        "win_pct": 0.462,
        "runs_scored": 648.0,
        "runs_allowed": 808.0,
        "run_differential": -160.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.0127,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1013,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1139,
        "offense_index": 0.9141,
        "defense_index": 0.8773,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 2.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": -14.0
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        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1914
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      "opponent": {
        "team": "ATL",
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        "wins": 93,
        "losses": 65,
        "win_pct": 0.5886,
        "runs_scored": 725.0,
        "runs_allowed": 608.0,
        "run_differential": 117.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.7405,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5886,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8481,
        "offense_index": 1.0227,
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        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": 6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2011
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.3925,
        "offense_edge": -0.0859,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0227,
        "defense_strength": -0.1227,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.166,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9797,
        "run_prevention": 1.0355,
        "strikeout": 0.9864
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "663903",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "663903",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 670.0,
            "k_percent": 17.7,
            "bb_percent": 8.5,
            "woba": 0.372,
            "xwoba": 0.361,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 37.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 10.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 43.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 81.1017,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.8519,
            "whiff_percent": 24.2,
            "swing_percent": 44.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.913,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -1.1121,
            "command_and_miss": -0.2914,
            "regression_edge": 0.3143,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.4286,
            "barrel_edge": -0.6444,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.7286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.1286,
            "bb_edge": 0.15,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1408
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "663903",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 94,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 94,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.3491612330451,
              "release_spin_rate": 2382.3872675312164,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 94,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.3491612330451,
                "release_spin_rate": 2382.3872675312164,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.3492,
              "release_spin_rate": 2382.3873,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1408,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.0058,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.6784,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0577,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9703,
          "walk_factor": 0.988,
          "homer_factor": 1.1236,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.011,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "663903",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0577,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0577,
            "adjusted": 7
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.988,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.1236,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9703,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.0,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 77,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260924_CIN@ATL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260924

20260924_CIN@ATL

home

Tyler Mahle

True

6.0

5.0

-3

6/6

4/2

2/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "WHIP": 1.2222222222222223,
      "IP": 144.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.538,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.133,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0754,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9936,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9914,
      "walk_factor": 0.966,
      "homer_factor": 0.9751,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.5,
      "bb_percent": 7.4,
      "woba": 0.306,
      "xwoba": 0.304,
      "barrel_percent": 6.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.4,
      "whiff_percent": 23.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 90,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "641816",
      "report_date": "20260924",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
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          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.2,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 6.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 25.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 119.0,
            "Pitches": 472.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 0.8,
            "R": 1.2,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 23.8,
            "Pitches": 94.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.1739,
            "WHIP": 0.913,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.13043,
            "H_per_IP": 0.78261,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.13043,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.81522,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06522
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 61.0,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 45.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 56.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 233.0,
            "Pitches": 920.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.2,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 4.5,
            "BB": 1.1,
            "SO": 5.6,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 23.3,
            "Pitches": 92.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.7705,
            "WHIP": 0.918,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.19672,
            "H_per_IP": 0.7377,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.18033,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.91803,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08197
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 144.0,
            "ER": 61.0,
            "R": 64.0,
            "H": 132.0,
            "BB": 44.0,
            "SO": 133.0,
            "HR": 18.0,
            "BF": 592.0,
            "Pitches": 2311.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.3462,
            "R": 2.4615,
            "H": 5.0769,
            "BB": 1.6923,
            "SO": 5.1154,
            "HR": 0.6923,
            "BF": 22.7692,
            "Pitches": 88.8846
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8125,
            "WHIP": 1.2222,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42361,
            "H_per_IP": 0.91667,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30556,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.92361,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.125
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.548,
        "predicted_H": 4.899,
        "predicted_BB": 1.272,
        "predicted_SO": 5.25,
        "predicted_HR": 0.556,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.3435,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0382
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4181,
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      "form_reliability": 0.8387,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.548,
          "final": 2.5733,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.899,
          "final": 5.3594,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "form": 1.272,
          "final": 2.4127,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 5.25,
          "final": 3.4729,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.556,
          "final": 0.3235,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.3435,
          "final": 2.3435,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0382,
          "final": 1.0382,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 61.0,
        "ER": 12,
        "H": 45,
        "BB": 11,
        "SO": 56,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 1.7704918032786885,
        "WHIP": 0.9180327868852459,
        "K9": 8.262295081967213,
        "HR9": 0.7377049180327869,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 8,
        "dominant_form": true,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-18T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.6898441149275345,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 1.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 26.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8387,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "641816",
      "player_name": "Tyler Mahle",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ATL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 1.0
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": {
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            "biggest_deboost": null
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": {
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          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "ATL",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 93,
        "losses": 65,
        "win_pct": 0.5886,
        "runs_scored": 725.0,
        "runs_allowed": 608.0,
        "run_differential": 117.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.7405,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5886,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8481,
        "offense_index": 1.0227,
        "defense_index": 1.166,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": 6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2011
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CIN",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 85,
        "win_pct": 0.462,
        "runs_scored": 648.0,
        "runs_allowed": 808.0,
        "run_differential": -160.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.0127,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1013,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1139,
        "offense_index": 0.9141,
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        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 2.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": -14.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1914
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.3925,
        "offense_edge": 0.0227,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0859,
        "defense_strength": 0.166,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.1227,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0241,
        "run_prevention": 0.95,
        "strikeout": 1.0186
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "641816",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "641816",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 543.0,
            "k_percent": 22.5,
            "bb_percent": 7.4,
            "woba": 0.306,
            "xwoba": 0.304,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.9962,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8414,
            "whiff_percent": 23.1,
            "swing_percent": 46.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.913,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.1184,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0171,
            "regression_edge": 0.0571,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.2,
            "barrel_edge": 0.2,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.0714,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2857,
            "bb_edge": 0.425,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0125
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "641816",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 90,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 90,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.64026118417685,
              "release_spin_rate": 2134.9981031675284,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 90,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.64026118417685,
                "release_spin_rate": 2134.9981031675284,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.6403,
              "release_spin_rate": 2134.9981,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0125,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.0894,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0754,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9936,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9914,
          "walk_factor": 0.966,
          "homer_factor": 0.9751,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.002,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "641816",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9936,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9936,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.966,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9751,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9914,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 2,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 30,
      "Pitches": 118,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260924_CIN@ATL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260924

20260924_CLE@BOS

away

Daniel Espino

True

3.0

1.0

-6

-2

6/0

1/0

6/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.725,
      "WHIP": 1.425,
      "IP": 13.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 12,
      "role_avg_IP": 1.5,
      "recent_avg_IP": 1.5,
      "last_start_IP": 1.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2623,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9777,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.072,
      "walk_factor": 1.0252,
      "homer_factor": 1.038,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 37.3,
      "bb_percent": 11.9,
      "woba": 0.329,
      "xwoba": 0.291,
      "barrel_percent": 13.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.7,
      "whiff_percent": 37.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 462,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 2.72,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.3524,
        "prior_weight": 0.6476
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "682982",
      "report_date": "20260924",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 12,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 7.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 25.0,
            "Pitches": 97.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.8,
            "R": 0.8,
            "H": 1.2,
            "BB": 0.6,
            "SO": 1.4,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 5.0,
            "Pitches": 19.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.75,
            "WHIP": 1.6875,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.75,
            "H_per_IP": 1.125,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.5625,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.3125,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.375
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 11.1,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 5.0,
            "H": 9.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 18.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 50.0,
            "Pitches": 211.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.5,
            "R": 0.5,
            "H": 0.9,
            "BB": 0.7,
            "SO": 1.8,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 5.0,
            "Pitches": 21.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9706,
            "WHIP": 1.4118,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44118,
            "H_per_IP": 0.79412,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.61765,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.58824,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17647
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 12,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 13.1,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 12.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 59.0,
            "Pitches": 243.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.5833,
            "R": 0.5833,
            "H": 1.0,
            "BB": 0.5833,
            "SO": 1.8333,
            "HR": 0.25,
            "BF": 4.9167,
            "Pitches": 20.25
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.725,
            "WHIP": 1.425,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.525,
            "H_per_IP": 0.9,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.525,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.65,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.225
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 3.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.826,
        "predicted_H": 3.294,
        "predicted_BB": 1.504,
        "predicted_SO": 3.804,
        "predicted_HR": 0.652,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.8692,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4218
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.6236,
      "form_weight": 0.3764,
      "form_reliability": 0.3524,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 2.72,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.3524,
        "prior_weight": 0.6476
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 3.1,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.826,
          "final": 1.9345,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 3.294,
          "final": 4.9815,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.504,
          "final": 1.1897,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 3.804,
          "final": 5.1734,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.652,
          "final": 0.869,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.8692,
          "final": 4.8692,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4218,
          "final": 1.4218,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 11.1,
        "ER": 5,
        "H": 9,
        "BB": 7,
        "SO": 18,
        "HR": 2,
        "ERA": 3.9705882352941173,
        "WHIP": 1.4117647058823528,
        "K9": 14.294117647058822,
        "HR9": 1.588235294117647,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-18T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9792846928930355,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 2.72,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.3524,
          "prior_weight": 0.6476
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 3.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 6,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "682982",
      "player_name": "Daniel Espino",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CLE",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.6667,
              "percent_delta": -0.3571,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.6667,
              "percent_delta": -0.3571,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 3.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.6667,
            "percent_delta": -0.3571,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.6667,
            "percent_delta": -0.3571,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CLE",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 82,
        "losses": 76,
        "win_pct": 0.519,
        "runs_scored": 652.0,
        "runs_allowed": 650.0,
        "run_differential": 2.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0127,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1266,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1139,
        "offense_index": 0.9197,
        "defense_index": 1.0906,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.4,
          "run_differential": 15.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0877
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "BOS",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 85,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.538,
        "runs_scored": 681.0,
        "runs_allowed": 601.0,
        "run_differential": 80.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5063,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3101,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8038,
        "offense_index": 0.9606,
        "defense_index": 1.1795,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 2.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.8,
          "run_differential": -1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0944
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0067,
        "offense_edge": -0.0803,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0394,
        "defense_strength": 0.0906,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1795,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.004,
        "run_prevention": 0.985,
        "strikeout": 1.003
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "682982",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "682982",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 52.0,
            "k_percent": 37.3,
            "bb_percent": 11.9,
            "woba": 0.329,
            "xwoba": 0.291,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 13.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 36.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 71.6705,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.2488,
            "whiff_percent": 37.8,
            "swing_percent": 49.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.913,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.1205,
            "command_and_miss": 1.4786,
            "regression_edge": 1.0857,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.5714,
            "barrel_edge": -1.3556,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.1714,
            "whiff_edge": 1.8143,
            "bb_edge": -0.7,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.28
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "682982",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 19,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 19,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 94.96482029799016,
              "release_spin_rate": 2413.0714912015155,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 19,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 94.96482029799016,
                "release_spin_rate": 2413.0714912015155,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 94.9648,
              "release_spin_rate": 2413.0715,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.28,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 2.0,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2623,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9777,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.072,
          "walk_factor": 1.0252,
          "homer_factor": 1.038,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.038,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "682982",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.99,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.99,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0113,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0171,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0324,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 3.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 16,
      "Pitches": 72,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -6 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 6",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -6."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260924_CLE@BOS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260924

20260924_CLE@BOS

home

Ranger Suarez

True

5.2

5.0

-2

2/3

3/1

5/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "WHIP": 1.2,
      "IP": 143.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.309,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.0,
      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1698,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
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      "strikeout_factor": 0.9869,
      "walk_factor": 0.97,
      "homer_factor": 0.9317,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.8,
      "bb_percent": 7.6,
      "woba": 0.288,
      "xwoba": 0.298,
      "barrel_percent": 5.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.5,
      "whiff_percent": 22.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 59,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
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      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
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      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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        "data_weight": 0.8438,
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      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "624133",
      "report_date": "20260924",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
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          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.0,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 126.0,
            "Pitches": 479.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 25.2,
            "Pitches": 95.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7,
            "WHIP": 1.2667,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3,
            "H_per_IP": 0.86667,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.4,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.73333,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06667
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 52.0,
            "ER": 20.0,
            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 47.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 38.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 217.0,
            "Pitches": 852.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.1,
            "H": 4.7,
            "BB": 1.9,
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            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 21.7,
            "Pitches": 85.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4615,
            "WHIP": 1.2692,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.38462,
            "H_per_IP": 0.90385,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36538,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.73077,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07692
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 27,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 143.1,
            "ER": 52.0,
            "R": 55.0,
            "H": 127.0,
            "BB": 45.0,
            "SO": 135.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 593.0,
            "Pitches": 2298.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.9259,
            "R": 2.037,
            "H": 4.7037,
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            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.3333,
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          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.2651,
            "WHIP": 1.2,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.36279,
            "H_per_IP": 0.88605,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31395,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.94186,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06279
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.078,
        "predicted_H": 5.069,
        "predicted_BB": 2.095,
        "predicted_SO": 4.509,
        "predicted_HR": 0.461,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.3163,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2705
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.416,
      "form_weight": 0.584,
      "form_reliability": 0.8438,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.078,
          "final": 1.6296,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 5.069,
          "final": 3.7923,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.095,
          "final": 2.4715,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.509,
          "final": 4.7133,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.461,
          "final": 0.2692,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.3163,
          "final": 3.3163,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2705,
          "final": 1.2705,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 52.0,
        "ER": 20,
        "H": 47,
        "BB": 19,
        "SO": 38,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 3.461538461538462,
        "WHIP": 1.2692307692307694,
        "K9": 6.5769230769230775,
        "HR9": 0.6923076923076924,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-18T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8840315153951002,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 27.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8438,
          "prior_weight": 0.1562
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "624133",
      "player_name": "Ranger Suarez",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "BOS",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "BOS",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 85,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.538,
        "runs_scored": 681.0,
        "runs_allowed": 601.0,
        "run_differential": 80.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5063,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3101,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8038,
        "offense_index": 0.9606,
        "defense_index": 1.1795,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 2.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.8,
          "run_differential": -1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0944
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CLE",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 82,
        "losses": 76,
        "win_pct": 0.519,
        "runs_scored": 652.0,
        "runs_allowed": 650.0,
        "run_differential": 2.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0127,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1266,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1139,
        "offense_index": 0.9197,
        "defense_index": 1.0906,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.4,
          "run_differential": 15.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0877
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0067,
        "offense_edge": -0.0394,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0803,
        "defense_strength": 0.1795,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0906,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0089,
        "run_prevention": 0.9689,
        "strikeout": 1.0066
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "624133",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "624133",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 568.0,
            "k_percent": 22.8,
            "bb_percent": 7.6,
            "woba": 0.288,
            "xwoba": 0.298,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 37.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 33.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.2498,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.2134,
            "whiff_percent": 22.0,
            "swing_percent": 45.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.913,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.3987,
            "command_and_miss": -0.0286,
            "regression_edge": -0.2857,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.3714,
            "barrel_edge": 0.4,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.6286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4429,
            "bb_edge": 0.375,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.2191
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "624133",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 94,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 94,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 85.95170532532588,
              "release_spin_rate": 1975.9066423776717,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 94,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 85.95170532532588,
                "release_spin_rate": 1975.9066423776717,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 85.9517,
              "release_spin_rate": 1975.9066,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.2191,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.5648,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1698,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9856,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9869,
          "walk_factor": 0.97,
          "homer_factor": 0.9317,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.01,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "624133",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9856,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9856,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.97,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9317,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9869,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 94,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260924_CLE@BOS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260924

20260924_HOU@OAK

away

Peter Lambert

True

5.2

2.2

-9

4/6

1/2

9/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.6953642384105962,
      "WHIP": 1.2251655629139073,
      "IP": 151.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.593,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.733,
      "last_start_IP": 5.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1828,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9845,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0057,
      "walk_factor": 0.996,
      "homer_factor": 0.968,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.9,
      "bb_percent": 8.9,
      "woba": 0.295,
      "xwoba": 0.296,
      "barrel_percent": 6.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.8,
      "whiff_percent": 25.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 33,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "663567",
      "report_date": "20260924",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.2,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 29.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 27.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 125.0,
            "Pitches": 476.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 5.4,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 25.0,
            "Pitches": 95.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7674,
            "WHIP": 1.3256,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4186,
            "H_per_IP": 1.01163,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31395,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.94186,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10465
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 53.0,
            "ER": 29.0,
            "R": 31.0,
            "H": 56.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 53.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 236.0,
            "Pitches": 921.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.9,
            "R": 3.1,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 5.3,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 23.6,
            "Pitches": 92.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.9245,
            "WHIP": 1.4151,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.54717,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0566,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35849,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07547
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 27,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 151.0,
            "ER": 62.0,
            "R": 64.0,
            "H": 128.0,
            "BB": 57.0,
            "SO": 147.0,
            "HR": 15.0,
            "BF": 641.0,
            "Pitches": 2540.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.2963,
            "R": 2.3704,
            "H": 4.7407,
            "BB": 2.1111,
            "SO": 5.4444,
            "HR": 0.5556,
            "BF": 23.7407,
            "Pitches": 94.0741
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6954,
            "WHIP": 1.2252,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4106,
            "H_per_IP": 0.84768,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37748,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.97351,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09934
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.615,
        "predicted_H": 5.528,
        "predicted_BB": 1.935,
        "predicted_SO": 5.366,
        "predicted_HR": 0.568,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.2263,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3402
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.416,
      "form_weight": 0.584,
      "form_reliability": 0.8438,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.615,
          "final": 1.9432,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.528,
          "final": 4.8924,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.935,
          "final": 1.546,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 5.366,
          "final": 6.4617,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.568,
          "final": 0.3317,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.2263,
          "final": 4.2263,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3402,
          "final": 1.3402,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 53.0,
        "ER": 29,
        "H": 56,
        "BB": 19,
        "SO": 53,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 4.9245283018867925,
        "WHIP": 1.4150943396226414,
        "K9": 9.0,
        "HR9": 0.6792452830188679,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-18T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0522644616940842,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 8.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 27.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8438,
          "prior_weight": 0.1562
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "663567",
      "player_name": "Peter Lambert",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "HOU",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 9.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 9.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.125,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 9.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.125,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 8.0,
            "after": 9.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.125,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 8.0,
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            "delta": 1.0,
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            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 78,
        "losses": 80,
        "win_pct": 0.4937,
        "runs_scored": 700.0,
        "runs_allowed": 753.0,
        "run_differential": -53.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3354,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4304,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7658,
        "offense_index": 0.9875,
        "defense_index": 0.9414,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8,
          "run_differential": -11.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1165
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "OAK",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 63,
        "losses": 95,
        "win_pct": 0.3987,
        "runs_scored": 686.0,
        "runs_allowed": 903.0,
        "run_differential": -217.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.3734,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3418,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7152,
        "offense_index": 0.9677,
        "defense_index": 0.785,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 7.0,
          "run_differential": -31.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3245
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.208,
        "offense_edge": -0.0125,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0323,
        "defense_strength": -0.0586,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.215,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0079,
        "run_prevention": 0.9903,
        "strikeout": 1.0088
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "663567",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "663567",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 613.0,
            "k_percent": 22.9,
            "bb_percent": 8.9,
            "woba": 0.295,
            "xwoba": 0.296,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.6,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 35.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5167,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.5315,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 48.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.913,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.3015,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0729,
            "regression_edge": -0.0286,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.4286,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0889,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.3,
            "whiff_edge": 0.0143,
            "bb_edge": 0.05,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0267
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "663567",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 93,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 93,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.38687519162656,
              "release_spin_rate": 2204.8030078841884,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 93,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.38687519162656,
                "release_spin_rate": 2204.8030078841884,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.3869,
              "release_spin_rate": 2204.803,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0267,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.1907,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1828,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9845,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0057,
          "walk_factor": 0.996,
          "homer_factor": 0.968,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.001,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "663567",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9845,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9845,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.996,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.968,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0057,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 9,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 99,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -9 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260924_HOU@OAK.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260924

20260924_HOU@OAK

home

Mason Barnett

True

3.2

6.0

6/4

1/2

4/8

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "WHIP": 1.75,
      "IP": 44.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 19,
      "role_avg_IP": 3.867,
      "recent_avg_IP": 3.867,
      "last_start_IP": 3.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3931,
      "sample_weight": 0.736,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0334,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9798,
      "walk_factor": 1.0677,
      "homer_factor": 1.0511,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 20.5,
      "bb_percent": 13.7,
      "woba": 0.396,
      "xwoba": 0.352,
      "barrel_percent": 9.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.3,
      "whiff_percent": 21.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 516,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 8.977,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6423,
        "prior_weight": 0.3577
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "686930",
      "report_date": "20260924",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 19,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 19.1,
            "ER": 22.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 28.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 19.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 100.0,
            "Pitches": 384.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 4.4,
            "R": 4.6,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 1.4,
            "BF": 20.0,
            "Pitches": 76.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 10.2414,
            "WHIP": 2.2241,
            "ER_per_IP": 1.13793,
            "H_per_IP": 1.44828,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.77586,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.98276,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.36207
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.2,
            "ER": 33.0,
            "R": 34.0,
            "H": 41.0,
            "BB": 21.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 146.0,
            "Pitches": 565.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.0,
            "ER": 3.3,
            "R": 3.4,
            "H": 4.1,
            "BB": 2.1,
            "SO": 2.3,
            "HR": 1.1,
            "BF": 14.6,
            "Pitches": 56.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 10.3605,
            "WHIP": 2.1628,
            "ER_per_IP": 1.15116,
            "H_per_IP": 1.43023,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.73256,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.80233,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.38372
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 19,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 44.0,
            "ER": 35.0,
            "R": 36.0,
            "H": 49.0,
            "BB": 28.0,
            "SO": 42.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 205.0,
            "Pitches": 822.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.1,
            "ER": 1.8421,
            "R": 1.8947,
            "H": 2.5789,
            "BB": 1.4737,
            "SO": 2.2105,
            "HR": 0.6316,
            "BF": 10.7895,
            "Pitches": 43.2632
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.1591,
            "WHIP": 1.75,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.79545,
            "H_per_IP": 1.11364,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.63636,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.95455,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.27273
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 3.2,
        "predicted_ER": 3.211,
        "predicted_H": 4.544,
        "predicted_BB": 2.227,
        "predicted_SO": 3.394,
        "predicted_HR": 1.027,
        "predicted_ERA": 7.8527,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.8397
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5011,
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      "form_reliability": 0.6423,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 8.977,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6423,
        "prior_weight": 0.3577
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
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          "form": 3.2,
          "final": 4.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.211,
          "final": 3.6064,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.544,
          "final": 5.2736,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.227,
          "final": 1.6121,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 3.394,
          "final": 3.6977,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.027,
          "final": 1.0135,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 7.8527,
          "final": 7.8527,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.8397,
          "final": 1.8397,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 28.2,
        "ER": 33,
        "H": 41,
        "BB": 21,
        "SO": 23,
        "HR": 11,
        "ERA": 10.360465116279071,
        "WHIP": 2.162790697674419,
        "K9": 7.22093023255814,
        "HR9": 3.4534883720930236,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-18T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.4324215085663652,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 8.977,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.6423,
          "prior_weight": 0.3577
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 3.2,
          "predicted_ER": 4,
          "predicted_H": 6,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 4,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "686930",
      "player_name": "Mason Barnett",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "OAK",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 3.2,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
              "after": 3.2,
              "delta": -1.1333,
              "percent_delta": -0.2615,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
              "after": 3.2,
              "delta": -1.1333,
              "percent_delta": -0.2615,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 3.2,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 3.2,
              "after": 3.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.3333,
            "after": 3.2,
            "delta": -1.1333,
            "percent_delta": -0.2615,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.3333,
            "after": 3.2,
            "delta": -1.1333,
            "percent_delta": -0.2615,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "OAK",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 63,
        "losses": 95,
        "win_pct": 0.3987,
        "runs_scored": 686.0,
        "runs_allowed": 903.0,
        "run_differential": -217.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.3734,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3418,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7152,
        "offense_index": 0.9677,
        "defense_index": 0.785,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 7.0,
          "run_differential": -31.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3245
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 78,
        "losses": 80,
        "win_pct": 0.4937,
        "runs_scored": 700.0,
        "runs_allowed": 753.0,
        "run_differential": -53.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3354,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4304,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7658,
        "offense_index": 0.9875,
        "defense_index": 0.9414,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8,
          "run_differential": -11.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1165
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.208,
        "offense_edge": -0.0323,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0125,
        "defense_strength": -0.215,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0586,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9857,
        "run_prevention": 1.0299,
        "strikeout": 0.9948
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "686930",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "686930",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 184.0,
            "k_percent": 20.5,
            "bb_percent": 13.7,
            "woba": 0.396,
            "xwoba": 0.352,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.3,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.5635,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.2875,
            "whiff_percent": 21.8,
            "swing_percent": 43.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.913,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.9453,
            "command_and_miss": -0.4914,
            "regression_edge": 1.2571,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.1714,
            "barrel_edge": -0.4,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0571,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4714,
            "bb_edge": -1.15,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.033
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "686930",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 72,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 72,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.27450273626764,
              "release_spin_rate": 2374.2742610503064,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 72,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.27450273626764,
                "release_spin_rate": 2374.2742610503064,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.2745,
              "release_spin_rate": 2374.2743,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.033,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.2357,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3931,
          "sample_weight": 0.736,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0334,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9798,
          "walk_factor": 1.0677,
          "homer_factor": 1.0511,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.044,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "686930",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0246,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0246,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0498,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0376,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9851,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 3.2,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 18,
      "Pitches": 76,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by +7 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260924_HOU@OAK.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260924

20260924_LAA@SEA

away

Grayson Rodriguez

True

5.0

-1

5/5

3/5

5/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.95729537366548,
      "WHIP": 1.5373665480427046,
      "IP": 93.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 19,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.93,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.533,
      "last_start_IP": 6.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.5731,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0487,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9789,
      "walk_factor": 0.998,
      "homer_factor": 1.1108,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 19.7,
      "bb_percent": 9.0,
      "woba": 0.363,
      "xwoba": 0.357,
      "barrel_percent": 8.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 45.1,
      "whiff_percent": 23.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 852,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 19.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7917,
        "prior_weight": 0.2083
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "680570",
      "report_date": "20260924",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 19,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.2,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 35.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 123.0,
            "Pitches": 460.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 7.0,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 24.6,
            "Pitches": 92.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.8795,
            "WHIP": 1.5542,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.54217,
            "H_per_IP": 1.26506,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28916,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.79518,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18072
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 54.2,
            "ER": 25.0,
            "R": 28.0,
            "H": 55.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 53.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 235.0,
            "Pitches": 927.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.5,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 5.5,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 5.3,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 23.5,
            "Pitches": 92.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.1159,
            "WHIP": 1.3537,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.45732,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0061,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34756,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.96951,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14634
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 19,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 93.2,
            "ER": 62.0,
            "R": 67.0,
            "H": 106.0,
            "BB": 38.0,
            "SO": 83.0,
            "HR": 15.0,
            "BF": 421.0,
            "Pitches": 1667.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      },
      {
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        "stats": {
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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        ],
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "LAA",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 60,
        "losses": 98,
        "win_pct": 0.3797,
        "runs_scored": 635.0,
        "runs_allowed": 728.0,
        "run_differential": -93.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5886,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.019,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6076,
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          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.4,
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "games": 158,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 84,
        "win_pct": 0.4684,
        "runs_scored": 640.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3924,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0506,
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          "win_pct": 0.5,
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        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.075
      },
      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": -0.1042,
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        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0098,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9977,
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        "strikeout": 1.0037
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "680570",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "680570",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 381.0,
            "k_percent": 19.7,
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            "xwoba": 0.357,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.9,
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            "avg_best_speed": 79.5298,
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            "whiff_percent": 23.7,
            "swing_percent": 49.1
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
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            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.913,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.9554,
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            "regression_edge": 0.1714,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.3143,
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            "hard_hit_edge": -1.0286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2,
            "bb_edge": 0.025,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0015
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "680570",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 93,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 93,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.89029909471627,
              "release_spin_rate": 2183.4815920333936,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 93,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.89029909471627,
                "release_spin_rate": 2183.4815920333936,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.8903,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
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            "components": {
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              "velocity_edge": 0.0106,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.5731,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0487,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9789,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.006,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "680570",
            "espn_rank": null
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0487,
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0487,
            "adjusted": 6
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.998,
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          "predicted_HR": {
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            "factor": 1.1108,
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9789,
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 93,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260924_LAA@SEA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260924

20260924_LAA@SEA

home

Bryan Woo

True

5.2

5.1

-1

3/7

1/3

7/8

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 3.9184890656063622,
      "WHIP": 1.0795228628230618,
      "IP": 167.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 29,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.782,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.867,
      "last_start_IP": 5.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
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            "primary_pitch": {
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              "release_speed": 92.8137,
              "release_spin_rate": 2265.4298,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1652,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.18,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2083,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9823,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0126,
          "walk_factor": 0.924,
          "homer_factor": 1.009,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.012,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "693433",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9823,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9823,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.924,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.009,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0126,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 93,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260924_LAA@SEA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260924

20260924_MIA@CHC

away

Tyler Phillips

True

5.0

4.0

-3

-1

4/3

5/4

3/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.448369565217391,
      "WHIP": 1.3125,
      "IP": 122.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 36,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.526,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.4,
      "last_start_IP": 3.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2769,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0235,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9886,
      "walk_factor": 1.018,
      "homer_factor": 1.055,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 19.0,
      "bb_percent": 10.0,
      "woba": 0.314,
      "xwoba": 0.33,
      "barrel_percent": 7.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 42.5,
      "whiff_percent": 26.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 88,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.0,
      "season_IP": 122.2,
      "season_ERA": 3.448,
      "season_WHIP": 1.312,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 36.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.878,
        "prior_weight": 0.122
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "663969",
      "report_date": "20260924",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 36,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 22.0,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 6.0,
            "H": 13.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 20.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 86.0,
            "Pitches": 347.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 1.2,
            "R": 1.2,
            "H": 2.6,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 17.2,
            "Pitches": 69.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.4545,
            "WHIP": 1.0455,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.27273,
            "H_per_IP": 0.59091,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.45455,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.90909,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18182
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 43.1,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 35.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 41.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 178.0,
            "Pitches": 683.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 3.5,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 4.1,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 17.8,
            "Pitches": 68.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.3231,
            "WHIP": 1.1769,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.36923,
            "H_per_IP": 0.80769,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36923,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.94615,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18462
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 36,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 122.2,
            "ER": 47.0,
            "R": 50.0,
            "H": 109.0,
            "BB": 52.0,
            "SO": 99.0,
            "HR": 17.0,
            "BF": 520.0,
            "Pitches": 1964.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.1,
            "ER": 1.3056,
            "R": 1.3889,
            "H": 3.0278,
            "BB": 1.4444,
            "SO": 2.75,
            "HR": 0.4722,
            "BF": 14.4444,
            "Pitches": 54.5556
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4484,
            "WHIP": 1.3125,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.38315,
            "H_per_IP": 0.88859,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42391,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.80707,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13859
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.487,
        "predicted_H": 3.211,
        "predicted_BB": 1.752,
        "predicted_SO": 3.841,
        "predicted_HR": 0.725,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.1572,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1709
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4015,
      "form_weight": 0.5985,
      "form_reliability": 0.878,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 36.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.878,
        "prior_weight": 0.122
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.1,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.487,
          "final": 1.2914,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.211,
          "final": 3.5278,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 1.752,
          "final": 3.0562,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.841,
          "final": 3.5033,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.725,
          "final": 0.4339,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.1572,
          "final": 3.1572,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1709,
          "final": 1.1709,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 43.1,
        "ER": 16,
        "H": 35,
        "BB": 16,
        "SO": 41,
        "HR": 8,
        "ERA": 3.3230769230769233,
        "WHIP": 1.176923076923077,
        "K9": 8.515384615384617,
        "HR9": 1.6615384615384616,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-18T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8661469000104848,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 5.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 36.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.878,
          "prior_weight": 0.122
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "663969",
      "player_name": "Tyler Phillips",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 5.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 5.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 5.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIA",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 78,
        "losses": 80,
        "win_pct": 0.4937,
        "runs_scored": 703.0,
        "runs_allowed": 699.0,
        "run_differential": 4.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0253,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4494,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4241,
        "offense_index": 0.9917,
        "defense_index": 1.0141,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0327
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CHC",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 87,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.5506,
        "runs_scored": 839.0,
        "runs_allowed": 694.0,
        "run_differential": 145.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.9177,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.3101,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3924,
        "offense_index": 1.1836,
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        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": 7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1555
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1228,
        "offense_edge": -0.0083,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1836,
        "defense_strength": 0.0141,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0214,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9882,
        "run_prevention": 1.0341,
        "strikeout": 0.9816
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "663969",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "663969",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 494.0,
            "k_percent": 19.0,
            "bb_percent": 10.0,
            "woba": 0.314,
            "xwoba": 0.33,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 42.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.1111,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.3069,
            "whiff_percent": 26.1,
            "swing_percent": 45.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
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            "k_percent": 22.0,
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            "woba": 0.316,
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.913,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
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            "command_and_miss": -0.1879,
            "regression_edge": -0.4571,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.5429,
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            "hard_hit_edge": -0.6571,
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            "bb_edge": -0.225,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0629
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "663969",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 67,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 67,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.74043596565609,
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              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 67,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.74043596565609,
                "release_spin_rate": 2055.6265692430447,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.7404,
              "release_spin_rate": 2055.6266,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0629,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.4493,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2769,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0235,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9886,
          "walk_factor": 1.018,
          "homer_factor": 1.055,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.016,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "663969",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0235,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0235,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.018,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.055,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9886,
            "adjusted": 4
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 5,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 107,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260924_MIA@CHC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260924

20260924_MIA@CHC

home

Matthew Boyd

True

5.2

7.0

-2

4/5

1/2

1/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "IP": 119.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 21,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.698,
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      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
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      "sample_weight": 1.0,
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      "strikeout_factor": 0.968,
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      "k_percent": 18.9,
      "bb_percent": 7.5,
      "woba": 0.307,
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      "barrel_percent": 8.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.2,
      "whiff_percent": 22.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 224,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
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      "shrinkage": {
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      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "571510",
      "report_date": "20260924",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 21,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
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          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.2,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 112.0,
            "Pitches": 450.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 22.4,
            "Pitches": 90.0
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.1512,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4186,
            "H_per_IP": 0.83721,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31395,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.76744,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03488
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 60.2,
            "ER": 29.0,
            "R": 32.0,
            "H": 53.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 38.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 247.0,
            "Pitches": 912.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.9,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 5.3,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 0.9,
            "BF": 24.7,
            "Pitches": 91.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.3022,
            "WHIP": 1.2033,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.47802,
            "H_per_IP": 0.87363,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.32967,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.62637,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14835
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        },
        "season": {
          "games": 21,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 119.2,
            "ER": 54.0,
            "R": 58.0,
            "H": 109.0,
            "BB": 37.0,
            "SO": 93.0,
            "HR": 15.0,
            "BF": 493.0,
            "Pitches": 1867.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.5714,
            "R": 2.7619,
            "H": 5.1905,
            "BB": 1.7619,
            "SO": 4.4286,
            "HR": 0.7143,
            "BF": 23.4762,
            "Pitches": 88.9048
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          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.0613,
            "WHIP": 1.2201,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.45125,
            "H_per_IP": 0.91086,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30919,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.77716,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12535
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.641,
        "predicted_H": 5.112,
        "predicted_BB": 1.898,
        "predicted_SO": 4.389,
        "predicted_HR": 0.595,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.1253,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2169
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
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      "form_reliability": 0.8077,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "final": 4.6325,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "final": 1.5107,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "final": 2.9275,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "final": 4.1253,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2169,
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
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        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
        "IP": 60.2,
        "ER": 29,
        "H": 53,
        "BB": 20,
        "SO": 38,
        "HR": 9,
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        "K9": 5.637362637362638,
        "HR9": 1.3351648351648353,
        "games_pitched": 10,
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        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
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      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-19T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9769573395709243,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
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          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 1.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "571510",
      "player_name": "Matthew Boyd",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHC",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 158,
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        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.5506,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.9177,
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        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3924,
        "offense_index": 1.1836,
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        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
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        "runs_allowed": 699.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0253,
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        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4241,
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        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": 0.1836,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0083,
        "defense_strength": 0.0214,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
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      "player_factors": {
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        "strikeout": 1.0043
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "571510",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "571510",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.913,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.2172,
            "command_and_miss": -0.2443,
            "regression_edge": -0.7143,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.6,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3571,
            "bb_edge": 0.4,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.2701
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "571510",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 93,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 93,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 85.0398205022295,
              "release_spin_rate": 2211.404515069364,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 93,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 85.0398205022295,
                "release_spin_rate": 2211.404515069364,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 85.0398,
              "release_spin_rate": 2211.4045,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.2701,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.9295,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2782,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0236,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.968,
          "walk_factor": 0.968,
          "homer_factor": 1.0357,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.025,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "571510",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0236,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0236,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.968,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0357,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.968,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 1,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 95,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260924_MIA@CHC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260924

20260924_MIL@PHI

away

Shane Drohan

True

4.2

2.2

-6

3/3

2/2

3/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.2631578947368425,
      "WHIP": 1.3296398891966759,
      "IP": 120.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 31,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.074,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.6,
      "last_start_IP": 3.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1241,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9895,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.024,
      "walk_factor": 0.982,
      "homer_factor": 1.023,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.7,
      "bb_percent": 8.2,
      "woba": 0.325,
      "xwoba": 0.302,
      "barrel_percent": 8.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.3,
      "whiff_percent": 27.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 318,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "675660",
      "report_date": "20260924",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 31,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 15.0,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 17.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 66.0,
            "Pitches": 271.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.0,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 3.6,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 3.4,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 13.2,
            "Pitches": 54.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.2,
            "WHIP": 1.6,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.8,
            "H_per_IP": 1.2,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.4,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.13333,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.33333
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 38.1,
            "ER": 25.0,
            "R": 25.0,
            "H": 43.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 39.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 168.0,
            "Pitches": 658.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 2.5,
            "R": 2.5,
            "H": 4.3,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 3.9,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 16.8,
            "Pitches": 65.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.8696,
            "WHIP": 1.6174,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.65217,
            "H_per_IP": 1.12174,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.49565,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.01739,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.2087
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 31,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 120.1,
            "ER": 57.0,
            "R": 62.0,
            "H": 118.0,
            "BB": 42.0,
            "SO": 121.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 510.0,
            "Pitches": 1933.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 1.8387,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 3.8065,
            "BB": 1.3548,
            "SO": 3.9032,
            "HR": 0.4516,
            "BF": 16.4516,
            "Pitches": 62.3548
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2632,
            "WHIP": 1.3296,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.47368,
            "H_per_IP": 0.98061,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34903,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.00554,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11634
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 3.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.442,
        "predicted_H": 4.107,
        "predicted_BB": 1.544,
        "predicted_SO": 3.887,
        "predicted_HR": 0.862,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.9315,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.5251
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4087,
      "form_weight": 0.5913,
      "form_reliability": 0.8611,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 3.2,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.442,
          "final": 1.8527,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.107,
          "final": 3.6546,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.544,
          "final": 1.7304,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.887,
          "final": 3.5245,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.862,
          "final": 0.5097,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.9315,
          "final": 5.9315,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.5251,
          "final": 1.5251,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 38.1,
        "ER": 25,
        "H": 43,
        "BB": 19,
        "SO": 39,
        "HR": 8,
        "ERA": 5.869565217391305,
        "WHIP": 1.6173913043478263,
        "K9": 9.156521739130437,
        "HR9": 1.8782608695652177,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-18T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.1636385388064716,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 31.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8611,
          "prior_weight": 0.1389
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "675660",
      "player_name": "Shane Drohan",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
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            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1,
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
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            "delta": -0.4667,
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            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIL",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 99,
        "losses": 59,
        "win_pct": 0.6266,
        "runs_scored": 810.0,
        "runs_allowed": 607.0,
        "run_differential": 203.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.2848,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.1266,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8418,
        "offense_index": 1.143,
        "defense_index": 1.1675,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
          "run_differential": 11.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3352
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 87,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.5506,
        "runs_scored": 704.0,
        "runs_allowed": 676.0,
        "run_differential": 28.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1772,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4557,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2785,
        "offense_index": 0.9934,
        "defense_index": 1.0483,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8,
          "run_differential": -8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0647
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2705,
        "offense_edge": 0.143,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0066,
        "defense_strength": 0.1675,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0483,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0161,
        "run_prevention": 0.9687,
        "strikeout": 1.0086
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "675660",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "675660",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 500.0,
            "k_percent": 23.7,
            "bb_percent": 8.2,
            "woba": 0.325,
            "xwoba": 0.302,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.3,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5588,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9255,
            "whiff_percent": 27.6,
            "swing_percent": 48.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.913,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.0301,
            "command_and_miss": 0.2793,
            "regression_edge": 0.6571,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.2571,
            "barrel_edge": -0.3556,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0571,
            "whiff_edge": 0.3571,
            "bb_edge": 0.225,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0323
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "675660",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 66,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 66,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.44122148478533,
              "release_spin_rate": 2572.257864118206,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 66,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.44122148478533,
                "release_spin_rate": 2572.257864118206,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.4412,
              "release_spin_rate": 2572.2579,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0323,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.231,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1241,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9895,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.024,
          "walk_factor": 0.982,
          "homer_factor": 1.023,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.023,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "675660",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9895,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9895,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.982,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.023,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.024,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 85,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -6 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260924_MIL@PHI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260924

20260924_MIL@PHI

home

Andrew Painter

True

5.0

6.0

-4

7/5

2/3

3/8

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.593922651933702,
      "WHIP": 1.4171270718232043,
      "IP": 120.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 24,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.03,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.667,
      "last_start_IP": 5.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0821,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.007,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9909,
      "walk_factor": 0.984,
      "homer_factor": 1.0178,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 20.3,
      "bb_percent": 8.3,
      "woba": 0.341,
      "xwoba": 0.325,
      "barrel_percent": 8.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.5,
      "whiff_percent": 25.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 212,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "691725",
      "report_date": "20260924",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 24,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.1,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 28.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 118.0,
            "Pitches": 457.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 5.6,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 23.6,
            "Pitches": 91.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.1294,
            "WHIP": 1.2,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.45882,
            "H_per_IP": 0.84706,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35294,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.98824,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14118
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 55.2,
            "ER": 24.0,
            "R": 24.0,
            "H": 43.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 54.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 229.0,
            "Pitches": 892.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 4.3,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 5.4,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 22.9,
            "Pitches": 89.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8802,
            "WHIP": 1.1317,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.43114,
            "H_per_IP": 0.77246,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35928,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.97006,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12575
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 24,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 120.2,
            "ER": 75.0,
            "R": 75.0,
            "H": 127.0,
            "BB": 44.0,
            "SO": 107.0,
            "HR": 21.0,
            "BF": 528.0,
            "Pitches": 2033.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.125,
            "R": 3.125,
            "H": 5.2917,
            "BB": 1.8333,
            "SO": 4.4583,
            "HR": 0.875,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 84.7083
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.5939,
            "WHIP": 1.4171,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.62155,
            "H_per_IP": 1.05249,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36464,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.88674,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17403
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.676,
        "predicted_H": 4.854,
        "predicted_BB": 1.983,
        "predicted_SO": 5.264,
        "predicted_HR": 0.788,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.38,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2435
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4228,
      "form_weight": 0.5772,
      "form_reliability": 0.8276,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 2.676,
          "final": 3.6587,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 4.854,
          "final": 5.7614,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.983,
          "final": 1.9902,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 5.264,
          "final": 4.3067,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.788,
          "final": 0.4548,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.38,
          "final": 4.38,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2435,
          "final": 1.2435,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 55.2,
        "ER": 24,
        "H": 43,
        "BB": 20,
        "SO": 54,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 3.8802395209580838,
        "WHIP": 1.131736526946108,
        "K9": 8.73053892215569,
        "HR9": 1.131736526946108,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-19T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9276980285226911,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 5.0,
          "predicted_H": 7.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 24.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8276,
          "prior_weight": 0.1724
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 5,
          "predicted_H": 7,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 3,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "691725",
      "player_name": "Andrew Painter",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PHI",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -0.3333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0625,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -0.3333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0625,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": -0.3333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0625,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": -0.3333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0625,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 87,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.5506,
        "runs_scored": 704.0,
        "runs_allowed": 676.0,
        "run_differential": 28.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1772,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4557,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2785,
        "offense_index": 0.9934,
        "defense_index": 1.0483,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8,
          "run_differential": -8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0647
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIL",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 99,
        "losses": 59,
        "win_pct": 0.6266,
        "runs_scored": 810.0,
        "runs_allowed": 607.0,
        "run_differential": 203.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.2848,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.1266,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8418,
        "offense_index": 1.143,
        "defense_index": 1.1675,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
          "run_differential": 11.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3352
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2705,
        "offense_edge": -0.0066,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.143,
        "defense_strength": 0.0483,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1675,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9849,
        "run_prevention": 1.0316,
        "strikeout": 0.9804
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "691725",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "691725",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 503.0,
            "k_percent": 20.3,
            "bb_percent": 8.3,
            "woba": 0.341,
            "xwoba": 0.325,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 29.6,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 35.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.1311,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.668,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 49.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.913,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.202,
            "command_and_miss": -0.0643,
            "regression_edge": 0.4571,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.4,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2444,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.3429,
            "whiff_edge": 0.0143,
            "bb_edge": 0.2,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0245
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "691725",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 95,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 95,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.30079839615475,
              "release_spin_rate": 2307.356647519465,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 95,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.30079839615475,
                "release_spin_rate": 2307.356647519465,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.3008,
              "release_spin_rate": 2307.3566,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0245,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.1748,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0821,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.007,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9909,
          "walk_factor": 0.984,
          "homer_factor": 1.0178,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.016,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "691725",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.007,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.007,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.984,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0178,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9909,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 92,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260924_MIL@PHI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260924

20260924_NYM@TEX

away

Zac Thornton

True

5.2

5.0

-2

5/4

0/1

2/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.4033613445378155,
      "WHIP": 1.147058823529412,
      "IP": 79.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 14,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.667,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.8,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3499,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0297,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9429,
      "walk_factor": 0.924,
      "homer_factor": 1.0781,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.6,
      "bb_percent": 5.3,
      "woba": 0.313,
      "xwoba": 0.329,
      "barrel_percent": 9.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.4,
      "whiff_percent": 18.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 115,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 14.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7368,
        "prior_weight": 0.2632
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "804267",
      "report_date": "20260924",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 14,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 29.0,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 30.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 118.0,
            "Pitches": 436.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 0.6,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 1.4,
            "BF": 23.6,
            "Pitches": 87.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.0345,
            "WHIP": 1.1379,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44828,
            "H_per_IP": 1.03448,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.10345,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.7931,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.24138
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 56.0,
            "ER": 25.0,
            "R": 26.0,
            "H": 60.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 42.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 231.0,
            "Pitches": 853.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.5,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 1.1,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 23.1,
            "Pitches": 85.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.0179,
            "WHIP": 1.2679,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44643,
            "H_per_IP": 1.07143,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.19643,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.75,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.21429
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 14,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 79.1,
            "ER": 30.0,
            "R": 31.0,
            "H": 74.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 59.0,
            "HR": 13.0,
            "BF": 318.0,
            "Pitches": 1174.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.1429,
            "R": 2.2143,
            "H": 5.2857,
            "BB": 1.2143,
            "SO": 4.2143,
            "HR": 0.9286,
            "BF": 22.7143,
            "Pitches": 83.8571
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4034,
            "WHIP": 1.1471,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.37815,
            "H_per_IP": 0.93277,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21429,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.7437,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16387
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.572,
        "predicted_H": 5.754,
        "predicted_BB": 1.221,
        "predicted_SO": 4.605,
        "predicted_HR": 1.125,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.0849,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2308
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4612,
      "form_weight": 0.5388,
      "form_reliability": 0.7368,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 14.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7368,
        "prior_weight": 0.2632
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.572,
          "final": 2.3082,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.754,
          "final": 5.4063,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.221,
          "final": 0.6579,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.605,
          "final": 3.4036,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.125,
          "final": 0.6061,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.0849,
          "final": 4.0849,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2308,
          "final": 1.2308,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 56.0,
        "ER": 25,
        "H": 60,
        "BB": 11,
        "SO": 42,
        "HR": 12,
        "ERA": 4.017857142857143,
        "WHIP": 1.2678571428571428,
        "K9": 6.75,
        "HR9": 1.9285714285714286,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-18T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9465830263841112,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 14.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7368,
          "prior_weight": 0.2632
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "804267",
      "player_name": "Zac Thornton",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "NYM",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
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              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "after": 2.0,
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              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            }
          },
          "weights": {},
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        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          {
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          },
          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "NYM",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 85,
        "win_pct": 0.462,
        "runs_scored": 681.0,
        "runs_allowed": 714.0,
        "run_differential": -33.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2089,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3101,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.519,
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        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": -1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0929
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TEX",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 78,
        "losses": 80,
        "win_pct": 0.4937,
        "runs_scored": 658.0,
        "runs_allowed": 700.0,
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        "available": true,
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      "edges": {
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
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      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "804267",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "804267",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 273.0,
            "k_percent": 18.6,
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.4,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.7421,
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            "whiff_percent": 18.5,
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          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
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            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
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            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
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            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.913,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
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          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.3581,
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            "regression_edge": -0.4571,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.5143,
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            "hard_hit_edge": -0.5,
            "whiff_edge": -0.9429,
            "bb_edge": 0.95,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1301
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "804267",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 89,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 89,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.54106140532146,
              "release_spin_rate": 2356.5118793991364,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
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                "pitches": 89,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
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                "release_spin_rate": 2356.5118793991364,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.5411,
              "release_spin_rate": 2356.5119,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1301,
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              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.929,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3499,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0297,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9429,
          "walk_factor": 0.924,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.016,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "804267",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0297,
            "adjusted": 2
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0297,
            "adjusted": 6
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.924,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0781,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9429,
            "adjusted": 4
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 2,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 86,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260924_NYM@TEX.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260924

20260924_NYM@TEX

home

Kumar Rocker

True

4.2

5.0

-3

3/3

5/2

4/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
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      "k_percent": 21.4,
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      "woba": 0.333,
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      "barrel_percent": 7.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 40.2,
      "whiff_percent": 25.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 207,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
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        "last_5": 0.45,
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      "effective_weights": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
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      "player_id": "677958",
      "report_date": "20260924",
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      "rows_used": 29,
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      "windows": {
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          "totals": {
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            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 23.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 25.0,
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            "BF": 99.0,
            "Pitches": 393.0
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          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
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            "H": 4.6,
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            "BB_per_IP": 0.5,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.13636,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13636
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        },
        "last_10": {
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          "totals": {
            "IP": 47.0,
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            "R": 28.0,
            "H": 54.0,
            "BB": 23.0,
            "SO": 48.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 216.0,
            "Pitches": 824.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.7,
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            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 2.3,
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            "Pitches": 82.4
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.6383,
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            "H_per_IP": 1.14894,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.48936,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.02128,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17021
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        },
        "season": {
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            "IP": 143.0,
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            "H": 144.0,
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            "SO": 134.0,
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            "Pitches": 2422.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.4483,
            "R": 2.5172,
            "H": 4.9655,
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          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.4685,
            "WHIP": 1.4196,
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            "H_per_IP": 1.00699,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.41259,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.93706,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13986
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
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        "predicted_H": 4.874,
        "predicted_BB": 2.131,
        "predicted_SO": 4.774,
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        "predicted_ERA": 4.7087,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.5242
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 2.404,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
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          "final": 4.1016,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "final": 4.7087,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 47.0,
        "ER": 27,
        "H": 54,
        "BB": 23,
        "SO": 48,
        "HR": 8,
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        "K9": 9.191489361702128,
        "HR9": 1.5319148936170213,
        "games_pitched": 10,
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        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-18T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0854840522199773,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 5.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8529,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "677958",
      "player_name": "Kumar Rocker",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TEX",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 5.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 5.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TEX",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 78,
        "losses": 80,
        "win_pct": 0.4937,
        "runs_scored": 658.0,
        "runs_allowed": 700.0,
        "run_differential": -42.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2658,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1646,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4304,
        "offense_index": 0.9282,
        "defense_index": 1.0127,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": 7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0029
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "NYM",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 85,
        "win_pct": 0.462,
        "runs_scored": 681.0,
        "runs_allowed": 714.0,
        "run_differential": -33.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2089,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3101,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.519,
        "offense_index": 0.9607,
        "defense_index": 0.9928,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": -1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0929
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.09,
        "offense_edge": -0.0718,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0393,
        "defense_strength": 0.0127,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0072,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0056,
        "run_prevention": 0.9879,
        "strikeout": 1.0058
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "677958",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "677958",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 608.0,
            "k_percent": 21.4,
            "bb_percent": 9.4,
            "woba": 0.333,
            "xwoba": 0.328,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 40.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.0305,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.4045,
            "whiff_percent": 25.9,
            "swing_percent": 47.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.913,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.3103,
            "command_and_miss": -0.0136,
            "regression_edge": 0.1429,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.4857,
            "barrel_edge": -0.1111,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.3286,
            "whiff_edge": 0.1143,
            "bb_edge": -0.075,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0348
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "677958",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 82,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 82,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.2417427175566,
              "release_spin_rate": 2139.55819234905,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 82,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.2417427175566,
                "release_spin_rate": 2139.55819234905,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.2417,
              "release_spin_rate": 2139.5582,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0348,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.2488,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1658,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0141,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0011,
          "walk_factor": 1.006,
          "homer_factor": 1.0366,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.005,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "677958",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0141,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0141,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.006,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0366,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0011,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 5,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 88,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260924_NYM@TEX.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260924

20260924_SD@LAD

away

Nick Pivetta

True

5.0

4.2

-1

-2

5/4

3/1

6/7

Last 10 before this game (7 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 3.3,
      "WHIP": 1.0,
      "IP": 30.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 7,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.286,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.4,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.209,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9822,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0067,
      "walk_factor": 0.9703,
      "homer_factor": 0.9915,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 29.2,
      "bb_percent": 5.8,
      "woba": 0.246,
      "xwoba": 0.265,
      "barrel_percent": 9.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.9,
      "whiff_percent": 20.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 232,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.0,
      "season_IP": 30.0,
      "season_ERA": 3.3,
      "season_WHIP": 1.0,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.7627118644067797,
        "last_10": 0.23728813559322032
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      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 7.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5833,
        "prior_weight": 0.4167
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "601713",
      "report_date": "20260924",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 7,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 22.0,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 5.0,
            "H": 15.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 83.0,
            "Pitches": 340.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.0,
            "H": 3.0,
            "BB": 0.4,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 16.6,
            "Pitches": 68.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.0455,
            "WHIP": 0.7727,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.22727,
            "H_per_IP": 0.68182,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.09091,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.04545,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09091
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 7,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.0,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 23.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 35.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 120.0,
            "Pitches": 491.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 1.5714,
            "R": 1.5714,
            "H": 3.2857,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.2857,
            "BF": 17.1429,
            "Pitches": 70.1429
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.3,
            "WHIP": 1.0,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.36667,
            "H_per_IP": 0.76667,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23333,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.16667,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06667
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 7,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.0,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 23.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 35.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 120.0,
            "Pitches": 491.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
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            "R": 1.5714,
            "H": 3.2857,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.2857,
            "BF": 17.1429,
            "Pitches": 70.1429
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.3,
            "WHIP": 1.0,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.36667,
            "H_per_IP": 0.76667,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23333,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.16667,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06667
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.681,
        "predicted_H": 3.776,
        "predicted_BB": 1.058,
        "predicted_SO": 4.69,
        "predicted_HR": 0.514,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.2817,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0482
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5261,
      "form_weight": 0.4739,
      "form_reliability": 0.5833,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 7.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5833,
        "prior_weight": 0.4167
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 1.681,
          "final": 1.8488,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "form": 3.776,
          "final": 4.4199,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "form": 1.058,
          "final": 2.0796,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.69,
          "final": 4.327,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.514,
          "final": 0.7697,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.2817,
          "final": 3.2817,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0482,
          "final": 1.0482,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 30.0,
        "ER": 11,
        "H": 23,
        "BB": 7,
        "SO": 35,
        "HR": 2,
        "ERA": 3.3,
        "WHIP": 1.0,
        "K9": 10.5,
        "HR9": 0.6,
        "games_pitched": 7,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 7,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 7,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-18T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8599002863600387,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 7.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.5833,
          "prior_weight": 0.4167
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "601713",
      "player_name": "Nick Pivetta",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.25,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
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            "boosted_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": {
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            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.2,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
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            "boosted_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": {
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              "percent_delta": 0.2,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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            "after": 5.0,
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            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
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            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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            "percent_delta": 0.5,
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            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SD",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 88,
        "losses": 70,
        "win_pct": 0.557,
        "runs_scored": 695.0,
        "runs_allowed": 657.0,
        "run_differential": 38.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2405,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3987,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1582,
        "offense_index": 0.9804,
        "defense_index": 1.0789,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
          "run_differential": 18.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1829
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "LAD",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 97,
        "losses": 61,
        "win_pct": 0.6139,
        "runs_scored": 788.0,
        "runs_allowed": 592.0,
        "run_differential": 196.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.2405,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9873,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7468,
        "offense_index": 1.1116,
        "defense_index": 1.1974,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.7,
          "run_differential": 24.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3189
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.136,
        "offense_edge": -0.0196,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1116,
        "defense_strength": 0.0789,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1974,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9925,
        "run_prevention": 1.0168,
        "strikeout": 0.987
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "601713",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "601713",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 100.0,
            "k_percent": 29.2,
            "bb_percent": 5.8,
            "woba": 0.246,
            "xwoba": 0.265,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 35.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.7105,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.5986,
            "whiff_percent": 20.5,
            "swing_percent": 47.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.913,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.7466,
            "command_and_miss": 0.3979,
            "regression_edge": -0.5429,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.3143,
            "barrel_edge": -0.4,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.2857,
            "whiff_edge": -0.6571,
            "bb_edge": 0.825,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0365
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "601713",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 69,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 69,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.21211734682227,
              "release_spin_rate": 2437.193161283574,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 69,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.21211734682227,
                "release_spin_rate": 2437.193161283574,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.2121,
              "release_spin_rate": 2437.1932,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0365,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.2606,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.209,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9822,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0067,
          "walk_factor": 0.9703,
          "homer_factor": 0.9915,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.019,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "601713",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.992,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.992,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9866,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9962,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.003,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 102,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 7 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260924_SD@LAD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260924

20260924_SD@LAD

home

Tyler Glasnow

True

6.0

6.1

5/3

2/2

7/11

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.4581280788177335,
      "WHIP": 0.960591133004926,
      "IP": 67.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 12,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.639,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.6,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.5745,
      "sample_weight": 0.96,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9512,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0938,
      "walk_factor": 0.9923,
      "homer_factor": 0.9923,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 33.0,
      "bb_percent": 8.7,
      "woba": 0.251,
      "xwoba": 0.266,
      "barrel_percent": 8.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.2,
      "whiff_percent": 31.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 119,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 6.0,
      "season_IP": 67.2,
      "season_ERA": 3.458,
      "season_WHIP": 0.961,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 12.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7059,
        "prior_weight": 0.2941
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "607192",
      "report_date": "20260924",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 12,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.0,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 38.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 116.0,
            "Pitches": 459.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 7.6,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 23.2,
            "Pitches": 91.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5,
            "WHIP": 1.1429,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5,
            "H_per_IP": 0.78571,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35714,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.35714,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07143
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 55.2,
            "ER": 22.0,
            "R": 22.0,
            "H": 34.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 72.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 217.0,
            "Pitches": 867.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 3.4,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 7.2,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 21.7,
            "Pitches": 86.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.5569,
            "WHIP": 0.9701,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.39521,
            "H_per_IP": 0.61078,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35928,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.29341,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12575
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 12,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 67.2,
            "ER": 26.0,
            "R": 26.0,
            "H": 42.0,
            "BB": 23.0,
            "SO": 87.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 264.0,
            "Pitches": 1058.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.1667,
            "R": 2.1667,
            "H": 3.5,
            "BB": 1.9167,
            "SO": 7.25,
            "HR": 0.5833,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 88.1667
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4581,
            "WHIP": 0.9606,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.38424,
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            "SO_per_IP": 1.28571,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10345
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
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        "predicted_BB": 2.08,
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        "predicted_HR": 0.645,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.148,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1378
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4743,
      "form_weight": 0.5257,
      "form_reliability": 0.7059,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 12.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7059,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.657,
          "final": 2.3454,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "form": 4.48,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "form": 2.08,
          "final": 2.0421,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 6.963,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.645,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.148,
          "final": 4.148,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1378,
          "final": 1.1378,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
        "IP": 55.2,
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        "BB": 20,
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        "HR9": 1.1317365269461077,
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        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-18T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8872788668460444,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 12.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7059,
          "prior_weight": 0.2941
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
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          "predicted_BB": 2,
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          "predicted_HR": 0
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "607192",
      "player_name": "Tyler Glasnow",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "LAD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 3.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.75,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": {
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            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 3.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.75,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
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          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
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            "percent_delta": 0.75,
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            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "LAD",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 97,
        "losses": 61,
        "win_pct": 0.6139,
        "runs_scored": 788.0,
        "runs_allowed": 592.0,
        "run_differential": 196.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.2405,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9873,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7468,
        "offense_index": 1.1116,
        "defense_index": 1.1974,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.7,
          "run_differential": 24.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3189
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SD",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 88,
        "losses": 70,
        "win_pct": 0.557,
        "runs_scored": 695.0,
        "runs_allowed": 657.0,
        "run_differential": 38.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2405,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3987,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1582,
        "offense_index": 0.9804,
        "defense_index": 1.0789,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
          "run_differential": 18.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1829
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.136,
        "offense_edge": 0.1116,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0196,
        "defense_strength": 0.1974,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0789,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0121,
        "run_prevention": 0.9703,
        "strikeout": 1.0056
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "607192",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "607192",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 240.0,
            "k_percent": 33.0,
            "bb_percent": 8.7,
            "woba": 0.251,
            "xwoba": 0.266,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 39.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 81.2861,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9525,
            "whiff_percent": 31.2,
            "swing_percent": 42.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.913,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.658,
            "command_and_miss": 1.0321,
            "regression_edge": -0.4286,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.2857,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2889,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1857,
            "whiff_edge": 0.8714,
            "bb_edge": 0.1,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0557
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "607192",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 76,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 76,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.85773330934553,
              "release_spin_rate": 2625.986737733158,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 76,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.85773330934553,
                "release_spin_rate": 2625.986737733158,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.8577,
              "release_spin_rate": 2625.9867,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0557,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.3976,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.5745,
          "sample_weight": 0.96,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9512,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0938,
          "walk_factor": 0.9923,
          "homer_factor": 0.9923,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.015,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "607192",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9532,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9532,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9926,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9926,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 8.0,
            "factor": 1.09,
            "adjusted": 9
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 104,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260924_SD@LAD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260924

20260924_STL@PIT

away

Kyle Leahy

True

5.0

2.0

-9

-1

2/3

4/0

6/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.652173913043478,
      "WHIP": 1.3405797101449275,
      "IP": 138.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 29,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.759,
      "recent_avg_IP": 3.133,
      "last_start_IP": 3.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.4005,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.034,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9846,
      "walk_factor": 0.958,
      "homer_factor": 1.1187,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.0,
      "bb_percent": 7.0,
      "woba": 0.327,
      "xwoba": 0.337,
      "barrel_percent": 9.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 47.0,
      "whiff_percent": 22.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
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    },
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      "season_WHIP": 1.341,
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    "player_form_blend": {
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          },
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          },
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        },
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          },
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        "predicted_H": {
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        "predicted_BB": {
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        "predicted_SO": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "OPS": 0,
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        "hot_streak": false,
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      "pitching": {
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      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-18T00:00:00"
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "681517",
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      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "STL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
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          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
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          ],
          "summary": {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          "biggest_deboost": null,
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          "dominant_effect": "better"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 158,
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        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.4873,
        "runs_scored": 709.0,
        "runs_allowed": 730.0,
        "run_differential": -21.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1329,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4873,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6203,
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          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "wins": 80,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.5063,
        "runs_scored": 751.0,
        "runs_allowed": 724.0,
        "run_differential": 27.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1709,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7532,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5823,
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          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": 1.0
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        "available": true,
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": -0.0009,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0583,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9919,
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        "strikeout": 0.9916
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "681517",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "681517",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 568.0,
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            "woba": 0.327,
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.3,
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            "avg_best_speed": 80.6216,
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            "whiff_percent": 22.4,
            "swing_percent": 46.3
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
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            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.6478,
            "command_and_miss": -0.03,
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            "xwoba_edge": -0.7429,
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            "hard_hit_edge": -1.3,
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            "pitch_design_score": -0.0172
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "681517",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 59,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 59,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.55713480456048,
              "release_spin_rate": 2180.111420248253,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 59,
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                "release_speed": 89.55713480456048,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.5571,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
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            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0172,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": -0.1226,
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              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.4005,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.034,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.01,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "681517",
            "espn_rank": null
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.034,
            "adjusted": 2
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.958,
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          "predicted_HR": {
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            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9846,
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 2,
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      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 97,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
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  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -9 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260924_STL@PIT.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260924

20260924_STL@PIT

home

Paul Skenes

True

5.2

6.1

-3

7/3

1/2

7/8

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "IP": 168.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 31,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.419,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.8,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.4767,
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      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9595,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0509,
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      "k_percent": 27.9,
      "bb_percent": 6.8,
      "woba": 0.298,
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      "barrel_percent": 7.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
      "whiff_percent": 28.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 42,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
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      "effective_weights": {
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      "shrinkage": {
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      "player_id": "694973",
      "report_date": "20260924",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 31,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
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            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 25.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 116.0,
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          "per_game": {
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            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 5.0,
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            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 1.0,
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            "Pitches": 88.0
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            "BB_per_IP": 0.2069,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.72414,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17241
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
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            "R": 30.0,
            "H": 49.0,
            "BB": 21.0,
            "SO": 54.0,
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            "BF": 224.0,
            "Pitches": 884.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.9,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 4.9,
            "BB": 2.1,
            "SO": 5.4,
            "HR": 0.8,
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            "Pitches": 88.4
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          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.3291,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.55063,
            "H_per_IP": 0.93038,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.39873,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.02532,
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        },
        "season": {
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            "SO": 192.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
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            "H": 4.6129,
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          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.131,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.43452,
            "H_per_IP": 0.85119,
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            "SO_per_IP": 1.14286,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1131
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.6,
        "predicted_H": 4.944,
        "predicted_BB": 1.657,
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        "predicted_ERA": 4.2485,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1983
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 5.2,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 2.6,
          "final": 3.1722,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "form": 4.944,
          "final": 5.7843,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "form": 1.657,
          "final": 1.3885,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "final": 5.8463,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 0.841,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.2485,
          "final": 4.2485,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1983,
          "final": 1.1983,
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
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        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 52.2,
        "ER": 29,
        "H": 49,
        "BB": 21,
        "SO": 54,
        "HR": 8,
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        "K9": 9.227848101265824,
        "HR9": 1.3670886075949367,
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      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-18T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 1.05362134012733,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 7.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "694973",
      "player_name": "Paul Skenes",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PIT",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
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            {
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          ],
          "summary": {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "694973",
        "profile": {
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          "pitcher_id": "694973",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
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          "metrics": {
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          "components": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
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            "pitcher_id": "694973",
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            "total_pitches": 86,
            "primary_pitch": {
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            ],
            "summary": {
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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        "adjusted_fields": {
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9595,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.954,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9717,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0509,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 96,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -4."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260924_STL@PIT.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260924

20260924_TB@NYY

away

Ian Seymour

True

5.0

2/1

2/0

5/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.028795811518325,
      "WHIP": 1.130890052356021,
      "IP": 127.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 44,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.8,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.067,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2879,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9755,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0646,
      "walk_factor": 0.952,
      "homer_factor": 1.0397,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 29.0,
      "bb_percent": 6.7,
      "woba": 0.317,
      "xwoba": 0.295,
      "barrel_percent": 10.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.3,
      "whiff_percent": 29.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 302,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.979,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8386,
        "prior_weight": 0.1614
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "693855",
      "report_date": "20260924",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 44,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.0,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 29.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 32.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 113.0,
            "Pitches": 417.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.4,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 6.4,
            "HR": 1.4,
            "BF": 22.6,
            "Pitches": 83.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.1923,
            "WHIP": 1.2692,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.57692,
            "H_per_IP": 1.11538,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.15385,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.23077,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.26923
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 53.2,
            "ER": 24.0,
            "R": 26.0,
            "H": 55.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 69.0,
            "HR": 13.0,
            "BF": 228.0,
            "Pitches": 859.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 5.5,
            "BB": 0.9,
            "SO": 6.9,
            "HR": 1.3,
            "BF": 22.8,
            "Pitches": 85.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.0248,
            "WHIP": 1.1925,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4472,
            "H_per_IP": 1.02484,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.1677,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.28571,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.24224
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 44,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 127.1,
            "ER": 57.0,
            "R": 62.0,
            "H": 108.0,
            "BB": 36.0,
            "SO": 155.0,
            "HR": 25.0,
            "BF": 529.0,
            "Pitches": 2042.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.0,
            "ER": 1.2955,
            "R": 1.4091,
            "H": 2.4545,
            "BB": 0.8182,
            "SO": 3.5227,
            "HR": 0.5682,
            "BF": 12.0227,
            "Pitches": 46.4091
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.0288,
            "WHIP": 1.1309,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44764,
            "H_per_IP": 0.84817,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28272,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.21728,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.19634
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.476,
        "predicted_H": 4.998,
        "predicted_BB": 1.053,
        "predicted_SO": 5.852,
        "predicted_HR": 1.122,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.5582,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2379
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4182,
      "form_weight": 0.5818,
      "form_reliability": 0.8386,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8386,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.476,
          "final": 1.4406,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.998,
          "final": 3.7443,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.053,
          "final": 1.449,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.852,
          "final": 5.4957,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.122,
          "final": 0.6528,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.5582,
          "final": 4.5582,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2379,
          "final": 1.2379,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 53.2,
        "ER": 24,
        "H": 55,
        "BB": 9,
        "SO": 69,
        "HR": 13,
        "ERA": 4.024844720496895,
        "WHIP": 1.1925465838509317,
        "K9": 11.571428571428571,
        "HR9": 2.1801242236024847,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-18T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.945486364893428,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 0.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 25.979,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8386,
          "prior_weight": 0.1614
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "693855",
      "player_name": "Ian Seymour",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TB",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 0.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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          {
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        ],
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 158,
        "wins": 96,
        "losses": 62,
        "win_pct": 0.6076,
        "runs_scored": 715.0,
        "runs_allowed": 636.0,
        "run_differential": 79.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5253,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0253,
        "offense_index": 1.0086,
        "defense_index": 1.1146,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.7,
          "run_differential": 20.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2228
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "NYY",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 91,
        "losses": 67,
        "win_pct": 0.5759,
        "runs_scored": 725.0,
        "runs_allowed": 584.0,
        "run_differential": 141.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8924,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5886,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.6962,
        "offense_index": 1.0227,
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        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.2,
          "run_differential": 18.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2089
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0139,
        "offense_edge": 0.0086,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0227,
        "defense_strength": 0.1146,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.2139,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0031,
        "run_prevention": 0.9915,
        "strikeout": 0.9986
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "693855",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "693855",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 500.0,
            "k_percent": 29.0,
            "bb_percent": 6.7,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.295,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.6,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 10.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.3,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.1995,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8607,
            "whiff_percent": 29.4,
            "swing_percent": 51.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.913,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0673,
            "command_and_miss": 0.785,
            "regression_edge": 0.6286,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.4571,
            "barrel_edge": -0.7111,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.0857,
            "whiff_edge": 0.6143,
            "bb_edge": 0.6,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.2091
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "693855",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 84,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 84,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 86.1295711647252,
              "release_spin_rate": 1962.9440503947853,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 84,
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                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 86.1296,
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              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.4936,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2879,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9755,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0646,
          "walk_factor": 0.952,
          "homer_factor": 1.0397,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.022,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "693855",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9755,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9755,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.952,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0397,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0646,
            "adjusted": 7
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 0,
      "predicted_ER": 0,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 77,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260924_TB@NYY.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260924

20260924_TB@NYY

home

Cam Schlittler

True

6.1

3.0

-10

3/3

2/2

8/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 1.9353146853146854,
      "WHIP": 0.9073426573426574,
      "IP": 190.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 32,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.958,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.533,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.7044,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9401,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.076,
      "walk_factor": 0.944,
      "homer_factor": 0.9644,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 31.3,
      "bb_percent": 6.3,
      "woba": 0.243,
      "xwoba": 0.262,
      "barrel_percent": 7.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.4,
      "whiff_percent": 29.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 2,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 32.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8649,
        "prior_weight": 0.1351
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "693645",
      "report_date": "20260924",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 32,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 32.2,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 5.0,
            "H": 11.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 41.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 120.0,
            "Pitches": 489.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.2,
            "ER": 0.6,
            "R": 1.0,
            "H": 2.2,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 8.2,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 24.0,
            "Pitches": 97.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 0.8265,
            "WHIP": 0.6429,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.09184,
            "H_per_IP": 0.33673,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30612,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.2551,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06122
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 60.1,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 30.0,
            "BB": 22.0,
            "SO": 77.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 232.0,
            "Pitches": 954.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.1,
            "R": 1.3,
            "H": 3.0,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 7.7,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 23.2,
            "Pitches": 95.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.6409,
            "WHIP": 0.8619,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.18232,
            "H_per_IP": 0.49724,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36464,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.27624,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0663
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 32,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 190.2,
            "ER": 41.0,
            "R": 50.0,
            "H": 126.0,
            "BB": 47.0,
            "SO": 234.0,
            "HR": 16.0,
            "BF": 747.0,
            "Pitches": 2971.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.2812,
            "R": 1.5625,
            "H": 3.9375,
            "BB": 1.4688,
            "SO": 7.3125,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 23.3438,
            "Pitches": 92.8438
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.9353,
            "WHIP": 0.9073,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.21503,
            "H_per_IP": 0.66084,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2465,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.22727,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08392
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.243,
        "predicted_H": 3.333,
        "predicted_BB": 2.036,
        "predicted_SO": 7.652,
        "predicted_HR": 0.494,
        "predicted_ERA": 1.774,
        "predicted_WHIP": 0.8516
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4071,
      "form_weight": 0.5929,
      "form_reliability": 0.8649,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 32.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8649,
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      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.1,
          "form": 6.1,
          "final": 6.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.243,
          "final": 1.5512,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.333,
          "final": 3.1974,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.036,
          "final": 2.0213,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "final": 6.1653,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.494,
          "final": 0.2929,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.774,
          "final": 1.774,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 0.8516,
          "final": 0.8516,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 60.1,
        "ER": 11,
        "H": 30,
        "BB": 22,
        "SO": 77,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 1.6408839779005524,
        "WHIP": 0.861878453038674,
        "K9": 11.486187845303867,
        "HR9": 0.5966850828729282,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 7,
        "dominant_form": true,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-19T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.6884402565813702,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 32.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8649,
          "prior_weight": 0.1351
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.1,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 8,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "693645",
      "player_name": "Cam Schlittler",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "NYY",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.3333,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0368,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 4.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 3,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_deboost": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
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            {
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            {
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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          },
          {
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        ],
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          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "NYY",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 91,
        "losses": 67,
        "win_pct": 0.5759,
        "runs_scored": 725.0,
        "runs_allowed": 584.0,
        "run_differential": 141.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8924,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5886,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.6962,
        "offense_index": 1.0227,
        "defense_index": 1.2139,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.2,
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        "available": true,
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      },
      "opponent": {
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        "win_pct": 0.6076,
        "runs_scored": 715.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5,
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        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0253,
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        },
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        "quality_score": 0.2228
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0139,
        "offense_edge": 0.0227,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0086,
        "defense_strength": 0.2139,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1146,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0055,
        "run_prevention": 0.9807,
        "strikeout": 0.9989
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "693645",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "693645",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 691.0,
            "k_percent": 31.3,
            "bb_percent": 6.3,
            "woba": 0.243,
            "xwoba": 0.262,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6822,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.7825,
            "whiff_percent": 29.1,
            "swing_percent": 52.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.913,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.8793,
            "command_and_miss": 0.9379,
            "regression_edge": -0.5429,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.4,
            "barrel_edge": -0.0444,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0714,
            "whiff_edge": 0.5714,
            "bb_edge": 0.7,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.28
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "693645",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 97,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 97,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 95.84565678559713,
              "release_spin_rate": 2515.855995429108,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 97,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 95.84565678559713,
                "release_spin_rate": 2515.855995429108,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 95.8457,
              "release_spin_rate": 2515.856,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.28,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 2.0,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.7044,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9401,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.076,
          "walk_factor": 0.944,
          "homer_factor": 0.9644,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.019,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "693645",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9401,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9401,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.944,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9644,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 8.0,
            "factor": 1.076,
            "adjusted": 9
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.1,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 100,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -10 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260924_TB@NYY.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260925

20260925_ARI@SD

away

Brandon Pfaadt

True

6.0

7.2

-1

8/9

2/2

4/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.7168831168831167,
      "WHIP": 1.1688311688311688,
      "IP": 128.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.944,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.0,
      "last_start_IP": 4.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0014,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0001,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.948,
      "walk_factor": 0.93,
      "homer_factor": 0.9801,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 16.4,
      "bb_percent": 5.6,
      "woba": 0.298,
      "xwoba": 0.303,
      "barrel_percent": 7.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.0,
      "whiff_percent": 21.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 112,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "694297",
      "report_date": "20260925",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.0,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 32.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 18.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 128.0,
            "Pitches": 446.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 6.4,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 25.6,
            "Pitches": 89.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.8,
            "WHIP": 1.2667,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.53333,
            "H_per_IP": 1.06667,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.6,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 63.1,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 22.0,
            "H": 54.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 42.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 251.0,
            "Pitches": 911.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 2.1,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 25.1,
            "Pitches": 91.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.9842,
            "WHIP": 1.0105,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33158,
            "H_per_IP": 0.85263,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.15789,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.66316,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09474
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 28,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 128.1,
            "ER": 53.0,
            "R": 57.0,
            "H": 120.0,
            "BB": 30.0,
            "SO": 87.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 531.0,
            "Pitches": 1927.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.8929,
            "R": 2.0357,
            "H": 4.2857,
            "BB": 1.0714,
            "SO": 3.1071,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 18.9643,
            "Pitches": 68.8214
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7169,
            "WHIP": 1.1688,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.41299,
            "H_per_IP": 0.93506,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23377,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.67792,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10909
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.642,
        "predicted_H": 5.686,
        "predicted_BB": 1.293,
        "predicted_SO": 4.011,
        "predicted_HR": 0.631,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.0489,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1885
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.414,
      "form_weight": 0.586,
      "form_reliability": 0.8485,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.642,
          "final": 3.2042,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 5.686,
          "final": 6.644,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.293,
          "final": 1.5857,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.011,
          "final": 3.5924,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.631,
          "final": 0.3698,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.0489,
          "final": 4.0489,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1885,
          "final": 1.1885,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 63.1,
        "ER": 21,
        "H": 54,
        "BB": 10,
        "SO": 42,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 2.984210526315789,
        "WHIP": 1.0105263157894737,
        "K9": 5.968421052631578,
        "HR9": 0.8526315789473684,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-19T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8217271195671689,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 8.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 28.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8485,
          "prior_weight": 0.1515
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "694297",
      "player_name": "Brandon Pfaadt",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ARI",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.3333,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.3333,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 8.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.3333,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.3333,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "ARI",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 85,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.5346,
        "runs_scored": 717.0,
        "runs_allowed": 707.0,
        "run_differential": 10.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0629,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5094,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4465,
        "offense_index": 1.0086,
        "defense_index": 1.0055,
        "current_streak": "W5",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1,
          "run_differential": 7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0721
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SD",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 89,
        "losses": 70,
        "win_pct": 0.5597,
        "runs_scored": 699.0,
        "runs_allowed": 659.0,
        "run_differential": 40.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2516,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3962,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1447,
        "offense_index": 0.9833,
        "defense_index": 1.0787,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": 18.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1867
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1146,
        "offense_edge": 0.0086,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0167,
        "defense_strength": 0.0055,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0787,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9962,
        "run_prevention": 1.0025,
        "strikeout": 0.9979
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "694297",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "694297",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 508.0,
            "k_percent": 16.4,
            "bb_percent": 5.6,
            "woba": 0.298,
            "xwoba": 0.303,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 35.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.338,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.4651,
            "whiff_percent": 21.5,
            "swing_percent": 49.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.1963,
            "command_and_miss": -0.36,
            "regression_edge": -0.1429,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.2286,
            "barrel_edge": -0.0444,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.4143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.5,
            "bb_edge": 0.875,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0426
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "694297",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 96,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 96,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.10309497222958,
              "release_spin_rate": 2461.9059118108958,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 96,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.10309497222958,
                "release_spin_rate": 2461.9059118108958,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.1031,
              "release_spin_rate": 2461.9059,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0426,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.3042,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0014,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0001,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.948,
          "walk_factor": 0.93,
          "homer_factor": 0.9801,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.005,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "694297",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0001,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0001,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.93,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9801,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.948,
            "adjusted": 4
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 8,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 28,
      "Pitches": 116,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260925_ARI@SD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260925

20260925_ARI@SD

home

Casey Mize

True

4.2

4.0

-2

5/7

2/2

7/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "IP": 127.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.093,
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      "last_start_IP": 3.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0643,
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      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9945,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.984,
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      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 20.6,
      "bb_percent": 6.8,
      "woba": 0.307,
      "xwoba": 0.298,
      "barrel_percent": 8.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.6,
      "whiff_percent": 23.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 115,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
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      "effective_weights": {
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      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "663554",
      "report_date": "20260925",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 25,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
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          "totals": {
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            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 28.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 14.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 107.0,
            "Pitches": 401.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 4.2,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 2.8,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 21.4,
            "Pitches": 80.2
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          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.6765,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.70588,
            "H_per_IP": 1.23529,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.44118,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.61765,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.22059
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 46.2,
            "ER": 31.0,
            "R": 36.0,
            "H": 52.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 27.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 208.0,
            "Pitches": 779.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.1,
            "R": 3.6,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 1.7,
            "SO": 2.7,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 20.8,
            "Pitches": 77.9
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.4786,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.66429,
            "H_per_IP": 1.11429,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36429,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.57857,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.21429
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        },
        "season": {
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          "totals": {
            "IP": 127.1,
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            "R": 62.0,
            "H": 116.0,
            "BB": 36.0,
            "SO": 109.0,
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            "BF": 528.0,
            "Pitches": 2012.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.24,
            "R": 2.48,
            "H": 4.64,
            "BB": 1.44,
            "SO": 4.36,
            "HR": 0.6,
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          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.1937,
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            "H_per_IP": 0.91099,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28272,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.85602,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1178
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      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
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        "predicted_H": 5.214,
        "predicted_BB": 1.803,
        "predicted_SO": 3.302,
        "predicted_HR": 0.896,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.5549,
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "model_weight": 0.4204,
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 4.2,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 2.915,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.214,
          "final": 5.124,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "final": 0.9397,
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        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
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          "final": 5.5549,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4859,
          "final": 1.4859,
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
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        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
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        "ER": 31,
        "H": 52,
        "BB": 17,
        "SO": 27,
        "HR": 10,
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        "K9": 5.207142857142857,
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        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
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      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-19T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 1.1702938488904773,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "prior_size": 5.0,
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "663554",
      "player_name": "Casey Mize",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SD",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 89,
        "losses": 70,
        "win_pct": 0.5597,
        "runs_scored": 699.0,
        "runs_allowed": 659.0,
        "run_differential": 40.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2516,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3962,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1447,
        "offense_index": 0.9833,
        "defense_index": 1.0787,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": 18.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1867
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "ARI",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 85,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.5346,
        "runs_scored": 717.0,
        "runs_allowed": 707.0,
        "run_differential": 10.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0629,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5094,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4465,
        "offense_index": 1.0086,
        "defense_index": 1.0055,
        "current_streak": "W5",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1,
          "run_differential": 7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0721
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1146,
        "offense_edge": -0.0167,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0086,
        "defense_strength": 0.0787,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0055,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0066,
        "run_prevention": 0.9878,
        "strikeout": 1.0028
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "663554",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "663554",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 508.0,
            "k_percent": 20.6,
            "bb_percent": 6.8,
            "woba": 0.307,
            "xwoba": 0.298,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.8539,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.0019,
            "whiff_percent": 23.6,
            "swing_percent": 47.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0901,
            "command_and_miss": -0.045,
            "regression_edge": 0.2571,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.3714,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2,
            "bb_edge": 0.575,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0025
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "663554",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 74,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 74,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.81822385564924,
              "release_spin_rate": 2090.099354593912,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 74,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.81822385564924,
                "release_spin_rate": 2090.099354593912,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.8182,
              "release_spin_rate": 2090.0994,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0025,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.0182,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0643,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9945,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.984,
          "walk_factor": 0.954,
          "homer_factor": 1.0089,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.009,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "663554",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9945,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9945,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.954,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0089,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.984,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 94,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260925_ARI@SD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260925

20260925_ATL@MIA

away

Ray Kerr

True

5.0

3.0

-6

0/2

3/1

5/0

Last 10 before this game (8 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 1.7608695652173911,
      "WHIP": 0.5217391304347826,
      "IP": 15.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 8,
      "role_avg_IP": 3.222,
      "recent_avg_IP": 3.222,
      "last_start_IP": 3.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2233,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.981,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9969,
      "walk_factor": 0.9343,
      "homer_factor": 0.9737,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 20.0,
      "bb_percent": 1.8,
      "woba": 0.205,
      "xwoba": 0.266,
      "barrel_percent": 7.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.1,
      "whiff_percent": 25.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 280,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.6818181818181818,
        "last_10": 0.3181818181818182
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 3.139,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.3856,
        "prior_weight": 0.6144
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "678061",
      "report_date": "20260925",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 8,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 12.0,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 0.0,
            "SO": 10.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 39.0,
            "Pitches": 129.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.1,
            "ER": 0.4,
            "R": 0.4,
            "H": 1.0,
            "BB": 0.0,
            "SO": 2.0,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 7.8,
            "Pitches": 25.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.5,
            "WHIP": 0.4167,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.16667,
            "H_per_IP": 0.41667,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.0,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.83333,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16667
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 8,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 15.1,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 7.0,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 11.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 55.0,
            "Pitches": 180.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.0,
            "ER": 0.375,
            "R": 0.375,
            "H": 0.875,
            "BB": 0.125,
            "SO": 1.375,
            "HR": 0.25,
            "BF": 6.875,
            "Pitches": 22.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.7609,
            "WHIP": 0.5217,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.19565,
            "H_per_IP": 0.45652,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.06522,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.71739,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13043
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 8,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 15.1,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 7.0,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 11.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 55.0,
            "Pitches": 180.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.0,
            "ER": 0.375,
            "R": 0.375,
            "H": 0.875,
            "BB": 0.125,
            "SO": 1.375,
            "HR": 0.25,
            "BF": 6.875,
            "Pitches": 22.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.7609,
            "WHIP": 0.5217,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.19565,
            "H_per_IP": 0.45652,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.06522,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.71739,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13043
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 3.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.348,
        "predicted_H": 2.712,
        "predicted_BB": 0.846,
        "predicted_SO": 3.108,
        "predicted_HR": 0.533,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.4459,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0104
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.6096,
      "form_weight": 0.3904,
      "form_reliability": 0.3856,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 3.139,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.3856,
        "prior_weight": 0.6144
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.1,
          "form": 3.2,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.348,
          "final": 0.5263,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.712,
          "final": 1.0588,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 0.846,
          "final": 2.159,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.108,
          "final": 4.2613,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.533,
          "final": 0.2081,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.4459,
          "final": 3.4459,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0104,
          "final": 1.0104,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 15.1,
        "ER": 3,
        "H": 7,
        "BB": 1,
        "SO": 11,
        "HR": 2,
        "ERA": 1.7608695652173911,
        "WHIP": 0.5217391304347825,
        "K9": 6.456521739130434,
        "HR9": 1.1739130434782608,
        "games_pitched": 8,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": true,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 8,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 8,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-20T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8326982331371388,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 0.0,
          "predicted_H": 0.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 3.139,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.3856,
          "prior_weight": 0.6144
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "678061",
      "player_name": "Ray Kerr",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ATL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 0.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 0.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 0.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.6667,
              "percent_delta": 0.1538,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.6667,
              "percent_delta": 0.1538,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.3333,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.6667,
            "percent_delta": 0.1539,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.3333,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.6667,
            "percent_delta": 0.1539,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "ATL",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 93,
        "losses": 66,
        "win_pct": 0.5849,
        "runs_scored": 731.0,
        "runs_allowed": 615.0,
        "run_differential": 116.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.7296,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5975,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8679,
        "offense_index": 1.0274,
        "defense_index": 1.1569,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": -5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1618
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIA",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 78,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.4906,
        "runs_scored": 704.0,
        "runs_allowed": 701.0,
        "run_differential": 3.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0189,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4277,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4088,
        "offense_index": 0.9894,
        "defense_index": 1.015,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": -1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0057
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1675,
        "offense_edge": 0.0274,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0106,
        "defense_strength": 0.1569,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.015,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0118,
        "run_prevention": 0.9742,
        "strikeout": 1.0059
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "678061",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "678061",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 50.0,
            "k_percent": 20.0,
            "bb_percent": 1.8,
            "woba": 0.205,
            "xwoba": 0.266,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 26.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 34.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.2755,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.7728,
            "whiff_percent": 25.8,
            "swing_percent": 51.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 1.0718,
            "command_and_miss": 0.2764,
            "regression_edge": -1.7429,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.2857,
            "barrel_edge": -0.0222,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.5429,
            "whiff_edge": 0.1143,
            "bb_edge": 1.825,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0191
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "678061",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 25,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 25,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.52283282543786,
              "release_spin_rate": 2148.8918500733625,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 25,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.52283282543786,
                "release_spin_rate": 2148.8918500733625,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.5228,
              "release_spin_rate": 2148.8919,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0191,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.1363,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2233,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.981,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9969,
          "walk_factor": 0.9343,
          "homer_factor": 0.9737,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.061,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "678061",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9914,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9914,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9704,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9882,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9986,
            "adjusted": 4
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 0,
      "predicted_R": 0,
      "predicted_ER": 0,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 18,
      "Pitches": 87,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 8 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -6 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260925_ATL@MIA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260925

20260925_ATL@MIA

home

Eury Pérez

True

5.0

9.0

-1

5/1

2/1

6/8

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "WHIP": 1.2666666666666666,
      "IP": 150.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 29,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.321,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.267,
      "last_start_IP": 4.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0161,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9986,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0423,
      "walk_factor": 1.03,
      "homer_factor": 1.0712,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 25.7,
      "bb_percent": 10.6,
      "woba": 0.314,
      "xwoba": 0.315,
      "barrel_percent": 10.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.5,
      "whiff_percent": 28.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": null,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "691587",
      "report_date": "20260925",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 29,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
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          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 19.1,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 31.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 20.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 101.0,
            "Pitches": 401.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 3.8,
            "R": 4.2,
            "H": 6.2,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 20.2,
            "Pitches": 80.2
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 2.1724,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.98276,
            "H_per_IP": 1.60345,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.56897,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.03448,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.31034
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 45.1,
            "ER": 29.0,
            "R": 32.0,
            "H": 48.0,
            "BB": 27.0,
            "SO": 50.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 208.0,
            "Pitches": 866.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.9,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 2.7,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 20.8,
            "Pitches": 86.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.7574,
            "WHIP": 1.6544,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.63971,
            "H_per_IP": 1.05882,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.59559,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.10294,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15441
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 29,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 150.0,
            "ER": 69.0,
            "R": 77.0,
            "H": 123.0,
            "BB": 67.0,
            "SO": 162.0,
            "HR": 20.0,
            "BF": 631.0,
            "Pitches": 2568.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.3793,
            "R": 2.6552,
            "H": 4.2414,
            "BB": 2.3103,
            "SO": 5.5862,
            "HR": 0.6897,
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            "Pitches": 88.5517
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.14,
            "WHIP": 1.2667,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46,
            "H_per_IP": 0.82,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.44667,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.08,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13333
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 3.302,
        "predicted_H": 5.562,
        "predicted_BB": 2.415,
        "predicted_SO": 4.794,
        "predicted_HR": 0.96,
        "predicted_ERA": 6.4984,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.7441
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4121,
      "form_weight": 0.5879,
      "form_reliability": 0.8529,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
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      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
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          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 3.302,
          "final": 2.3532,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.562,
          "final": 5.3304,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.415,
          "final": 2.244,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.794,
          "final": 5.2911,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.96,
          "final": 0.9765,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 6.4984,
          "final": 6.4984,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.7441,
          "final": 1.7441,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 45.1,
        "ER": 29,
        "H": 48,
        "BB": 27,
        "SO": 50,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 5.75735294117647,
        "WHIP": 1.6544117647058822,
        "K9": 9.926470588235293,
        "HR9": 1.3897058823529411,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-22T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.1498027774619057,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 29.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8529,
          "prior_weight": 0.1471
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "691587",
      "player_name": "Eury P\u00e9rez",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIA",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 78,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.4906,
        "runs_scored": 704.0,
        "runs_allowed": 701.0,
        "run_differential": 3.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0189,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4277,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4088,
        "offense_index": 0.9894,
        "defense_index": 1.015,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": -1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0057
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "ATL",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 93,
        "losses": 66,
        "win_pct": 0.5849,
        "runs_scored": 731.0,
        "runs_allowed": 615.0,
        "run_differential": 116.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.7296,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5975,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8679,
        "offense_index": 1.0274,
        "defense_index": 1.1569,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": -5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1618
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1675,
        "offense_edge": -0.0106,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0274,
        "defense_strength": 0.015,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1569,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9927,
        "run_prevention": 1.0113,
        "strikeout": 0.9928
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "691587",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "691587",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 602.0,
            "k_percent": 25.7,
            "bb_percent": 10.6,
            "woba": 0.314,
            "xwoba": 0.315,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 10.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 39.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.9293,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.2717,
            "whiff_percent": 28.7,
            "swing_percent": 50.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1512,
            "command_and_miss": 0.3479,
            "regression_edge": -0.0286,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.1143,
            "barrel_edge": -0.7333,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.2286,
            "whiff_edge": 0.5286,
            "bb_edge": -0.375,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1642
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "691587",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 91,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 91,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.79616242963277,
              "release_spin_rate": 2525.323439420152,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 91,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.79616242963277,
                "release_spin_rate": 2525.323439420152,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.7962,
              "release_spin_rate": 2525.3234,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1642,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.173,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0161,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9986,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0423,
          "walk_factor": 1.03,
          "homer_factor": 1.0712,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.001,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "691587",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9986,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9986,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.03,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0712,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0423,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 98,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by +12 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -4."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260925_ATL@MIA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260925

20260925_BAL@NYY

away

Trevor Rogers

Brandon Young

False

6.1

5.0

-4

4/2

3/3

3/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.0744466800804835,
      "WHIP": 1.1830985915492958,
      "IP": 165.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 29,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.713,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.6,
      "last_start_IP": 8.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2779,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9764,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9983,
      "walk_factor": 0.932,
      "homer_factor": 0.9619,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.4,
      "bb_percent": 5.7,
      "woba": 0.304,
      "xwoba": 0.291,
      "barrel_percent": 6.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.1,
      "whiff_percent": 24.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 80,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669432",
      "report_date": "20260925",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 29,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 33.0,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 29.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 39.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 126.0,
            "Pitches": 478.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.2,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 0.6,
            "SO": 7.8,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 25.2,
            "Pitches": 95.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8182,
            "WHIP": 0.9697,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42424,
            "H_per_IP": 0.87879,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.09091,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.18182,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15152
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 62.0,
            "ER": 27.0,
            "R": 30.0,
            "H": 57.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 70.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 247.0,
            "Pitches": 945.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 2.7,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.7,
            "BB": 0.7,
            "SO": 7.0,
            "HR": 0.9,
            "BF": 24.7,
            "Pitches": 94.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9194,
            "WHIP": 1.0323,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.43548,
            "H_per_IP": 0.91935,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.1129,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.12903,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14516
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 29,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 165.2,
            "ER": 75.0,
            "R": 80.0,
            "H": 157.0,
            "BB": 39.0,
            "SO": 153.0,
            "HR": 19.0,
            "BF": 682.0,
            "Pitches": 2634.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.5862,
            "R": 2.7586,
            "H": 5.4138,
            "BB": 1.3448,
            "SO": 5.2759,
            "HR": 0.6552,
            "BF": 23.5172,
            "Pitches": 90.8276
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.0744,
            "WHIP": 1.1831,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.45272,
            "H_per_IP": 0.94769,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23541,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.92354,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11469
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.828,
        "predicted_H": 5.828,
        "predicted_BB": 1.043,
        "predicted_SO": 6.893,
        "predicted_HR": 0.907,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.0093,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0825
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4121,
      "form_weight": 0.5879,
      "form_reliability": 0.8529,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.1,
          "form": 6.1,
          "final": 6.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.828,
          "final": 2.0746,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.828,
          "final": 5.0746,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.043,
          "final": 1.8496,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 6.893,
          "final": 5.2885,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.907,
          "final": 0.9453,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.0093,
          "final": 4.0093,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0825,
          "final": 1.0825,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 62.0,
        "ER": 27,
        "H": 57,
        "BB": 7,
        "SO": 70,
        "HR": 9,
        "ERA": 3.9193548387096775,
        "WHIP": 1.032258064516129,
        "K9": 10.161290322580646,
        "HR9": 1.3064516129032258,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-19T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9274741484296478,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 29.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8529,
          "prior_weight": 0.1471
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669432",
      "player_name": "Trevor Rogers",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "BAL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.3333,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0368,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.3333,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0368,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.3333,
            "after": 6.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0368,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.3333,
            "after": 6.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0368,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "BAL",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 78,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.4906,
        "runs_scored": 705.0,
        "runs_allowed": 731.0,
        "run_differential": -26.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1635,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.434,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5975,
        "offense_index": 0.9874,
        "defense_index": 0.9768,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.2,
          "run_differential": 2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.007
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "NYY",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 92,
        "losses": 67,
        "win_pct": 0.5786,
        "runs_scored": 731.0,
        "runs_allowed": 588.0,
        "run_differential": 143.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8994,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5975,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.6981,
        "offense_index": 1.0238,
        "defense_index": 1.2143,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.6,
          "run_differential": 18.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.212
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.205,
        "offense_edge": -0.0126,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0238,
        "defense_strength": -0.0232,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.2143,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9902,
        "run_prevention": 1.0164,
        "strikeout": 0.9919
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669432",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669432",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 651.0,
            "k_percent": 22.4,
            "bb_percent": 5.7,
            "woba": 0.304,
            "xwoba": 0.291,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.6,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 36.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.0056,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.6766,
            "whiff_percent": 24.3,
            "swing_percent": 53.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.3602,
            "command_and_miss": 0.1607,
            "regression_edge": 0.3714,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.5714,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1333,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.2571,
            "whiff_edge": -0.1,
            "bb_edge": 0.85,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0345
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669432",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 96,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 96,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.24825957326814,
              "release_spin_rate": 2207.9175662184966,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 96,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.24825957326814,
                "release_spin_rate": 2207.9175662184966,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.2483,
              "release_spin_rate": 2207.9176,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0345,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.2462,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2779,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9764,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9983,
          "walk_factor": 0.932,
          "homer_factor": 0.9619,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.013,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "669432",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9764,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9764,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.932,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9619,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 0.9983,
            "adjusted": 7
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.1,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 116,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "WRONG_STARTER",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Wrong starter identity",
      "detail": "The projected MLB player ID differs from the official starter ID; performance errors are not attributable to the projected player."
    },
    {
      "code": "FALSE_CONFIRMATION",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Confirmed flag was false assurance",
      "detail": "The server marked this starter confirmed even though a different player started."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260925_BAL@NYY.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260925

20260925_BAL@NYY

home

Brendan Beck

Ryan Yarbrough

False

3.0

2.1

-2

-1

2/4

4/1

7/5

Last 10 before this game (3 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 8.217391304347826,
      "WHIP": 1.5652173913043477,
      "IP": 7.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 3,
      "role_avg_IP": 3.667,
      "recent_avg_IP": 3.667,
      "last_start_IP": 3.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.6184,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0526,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0026,
      "walk_factor": 1.0504,
      "homer_factor": 1.1687,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 14.7,
      "bb_percent": 14.7,
      "woba": 0.444,
      "xwoba": 0.435,
      "barrel_percent": 25.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 62.5,
      "whiff_percent": 33.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 667,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 1.569,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.2389,
        "prior_weight": 0.7611
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "694341",
      "report_date": "20260925",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 3,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 3,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 7.2,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 7.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 34.0,
            "Pitches": 149.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.2,
            "ER": 2.3333,
            "R": 2.3333,
            "H": 2.3333,
            "BB": 1.6667,
            "SO": 1.6667,
            "HR": 1.3333,
            "BF": 11.3333,
            "Pitches": 49.6667
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 8.2174,
            "WHIP": 1.5652,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.91304,
            "H_per_IP": 0.91304,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.65217,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.65217,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.52174
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 3,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 7.2,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 7.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 34.0,
            "Pitches": 149.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.2,
            "ER": 2.3333,
            "R": 2.3333,
            "H": 2.3333,
            "BB": 1.6667,
            "SO": 1.6667,
            "HR": 1.3333,
            "BF": 11.3333,
            "Pitches": 49.6667
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 8.2174,
            "WHIP": 1.5652,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.91304,
            "H_per_IP": 0.91304,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.65217,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.65217,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.52174
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 3,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 7.2,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 7.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 34.0,
            "Pitches": 149.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.2,
            "ER": 2.3333,
            "R": 2.3333,
            "H": 2.3333,
            "BB": 1.6667,
            "SO": 1.6667,
            "HR": 1.3333,
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            "Pitches": 49.6667
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 8.2174,
            "WHIP": 1.5652,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.91304,
            "H_per_IP": 0.91304,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.65217,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.65217,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.52174
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 3.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.24,
        "predicted_H": 3.561,
        "predicted_BB": 1.632,
        "predicted_SO": 3.198,
        "predicted_HR": 0.876,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.4757,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4106
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.6716,
      "form_weight": 0.3284,
      "form_reliability": 0.2389,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 1.569,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.2389,
        "prior_weight": 0.7611
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.2,
          "final": 4.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.24,
          "final": 1.4073,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 3.561,
          "final": 2.5127,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.632,
          "final": 3.2223,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 3.198,
          "final": 5.7513,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.876,
          "final": 0.9593,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.4757,
          "final": 5.4757,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4106,
          "final": 1.4106,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "insufficient_data"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 7.2,
        "ER": 7,
        "H": 7,
        "BB": 5,
        "SO": 5,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 8.217391304347826,
        "WHIP": 1.565217391304348,
        "K9": 5.869565217391305,
        "HR9": 4.695652173913044,
        "games_pitched": 3,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 3,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 3,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-29T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.1081784685618115,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 1.569,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.2389,
          "prior_weight": 0.7611
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 3.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 2,
          "predicted_BB": 4,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "694341",
      "player_name": "Brendan Beck",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "NYY",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 3.0,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "NYY",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 92,
        "losses": 67,
        "win_pct": 0.5786,
        "runs_scored": 731.0,
        "runs_allowed": 588.0,
        "run_differential": 143.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8994,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5975,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.6981,
        "offense_index": 1.0238,
        "defense_index": 1.2143,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.6,
          "run_differential": 18.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.212
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "BAL",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 78,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.4906,
        "runs_scored": 705.0,
        "runs_allowed": 731.0,
        "run_differential": -26.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1635,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.434,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5975,
        "offense_index": 0.9874,
        "defense_index": 0.9768,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.2,
          "run_differential": 2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.007
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.205,
        "offense_edge": 0.0238,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0126,
        "defense_strength": 0.2143,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0232,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0151,
        "run_prevention": 0.9663,
        "strikeout": 1.0072
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "694341",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "694341",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 31.0,
            "k_percent": 14.7,
            "bb_percent": 14.7,
            "woba": 0.444,
            "xwoba": 0.435,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 58.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 25.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 62.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 86.3721,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 97.4373,
            "whiff_percent": 33.3,
            "swing_percent": 42.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -2.3293,
            "command_and_miss": -0.3343,
            "regression_edge": 0.2571,
            "xwoba_edge": -2.5,
            "barrel_edge": -2.5,
            "hard_hit_edge": -2.5,
            "whiff_edge": 1.1857,
            "bb_edge": -1.4,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.109
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "694341",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 69,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 69,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.9177608311229,
              "release_spin_rate": 2129.730437665782,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 69,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.9177608311229,
                "release_spin_rate": 2129.730437665782,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.9178,
              "release_spin_rate": 2129.7304,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.109,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.7784,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.6184,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0526,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0026,
          "walk_factor": 1.0504,
          "homer_factor": 1.1687,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.009,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "694341",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0237,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0237,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0227,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0759,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0012,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 3.0,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 15,
      "Pitches": 72,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "WRONG_STARTER",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Wrong starter identity",
      "detail": "The projected MLB player ID differs from the official starter ID; performance errors are not attributable to the projected player."
    },
    {
      "code": "FALSE_CONFIRMATION",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Confirmed flag was false assurance",
      "detail": "The server marked this starter confirmed even though a different player started."
    },
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 3 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260925_BAL@NYY.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260925

20260925_CHC@BOS

away

Clay Holmes

David Peterson

False

5.2

5.0

-2

2/3

3/2

7/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.247422680412371,
      "WHIP": 1.1649484536082475,
      "IP": 97.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 17,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.706,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.667,
      "last_start_IP": 5.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0148,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9987,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9651,
      "walk_factor": 1.014,
      "homer_factor": 0.9607,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 18.8,
      "bb_percent": 9.8,
      "woba": 0.268,
      "xwoba": 0.304,
      "barrel_percent": 4.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.1,
      "whiff_percent": 22.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 82,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 17.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7727,
        "prior_weight": 0.2273
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "605280",
      "report_date": "20260925",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 17,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.1,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 21.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 25.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 121.0,
            "Pitches": 471.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.4,
            "H": 4.2,
            "BB": 3.2,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 24.2,
            "Pitches": 94.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.0824,
            "WHIP": 1.3059,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.56471,
            "H_per_IP": 0.74118,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.56471,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.88235,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07059
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 54.1,
            "ER": 27.0,
            "R": 28.0,
            "H": 46.0,
            "BB": 25.0,
            "SO": 44.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 231.0,
            "Pitches": 905.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.7,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 2.5,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 0.3,
            "BF": 23.1,
            "Pitches": 90.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.4724,
            "WHIP": 1.3067,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.49693,
            "H_per_IP": 0.84663,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.46012,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.80982,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.05521
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 17,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 97.0,
            "ER": 35.0,
            "R": 36.0,
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      "pitching": {
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      "fielding": {
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-18T00:00:00"
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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        "stats": {
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "player_id": "605280",
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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          ],
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          },
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.9182,
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      "opponent": {
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
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        "profile": {
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          "pitcher_id": "605280",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "605280",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 92,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
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              "pitches": 92,
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              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
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            ],
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0148,
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          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "box_score_synced": true,
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      "Pitches": 101,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
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  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "WRONG_STARTER",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Wrong starter identity",
      "detail": "The projected MLB player ID differs from the official starter ID; performance errors are not attributable to the projected player."
    },
    {
      "code": "FALSE_CONFIRMATION",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Confirmed flag was false assurance",
      "detail": "The server marked this starter confirmed even though a different player started."
    },
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260925_CHC@BOS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260925

20260925_CHC@BOS

home

Alec Gamboa

Brayan Bello

False

5.0

4.0

-3

-2

3/4

4/1

4/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 1.1612903225806452,
      "WHIP": 1.064516129032258,
      "IP": 31.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 20,
      "role_avg_IP": 1.333,
      "recent_avg_IP": 1.333,
      "last_start_IP": 1.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1735,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9853,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9702,
      "walk_factor": 0.9928,
      "homer_factor": 0.9488,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.2,
      "bb_percent": 8.3,
      "woba": 0.269,
      "xwoba": 0.26,
      "barrel_percent": 2.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 40.9,
      "whiff_percent": 17.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 202,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.0,
      "season_IP": 31.0,
      "season_ERA": 1.161,
      "season_WHIP": 1.065,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 6.346,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5593,
        "prior_weight": 0.4407
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "687941",
      "report_date": "20260925",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 20,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.0,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 21.0,
            "Pitches": 78.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.2,
            "R": 0.2,
            "H": 1.2,
            "BB": 0.6,
            "SO": 0.8,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 4.2,
            "Pitches": 15.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.8,
            "WHIP": 1.8,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.2,
            "H_per_IP": 1.2,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.6,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.8,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 12.2,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.0,
            "H": 9.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 9.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 49.0,
            "Pitches": 177.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.1,
            "ER": 0.1,
            "R": 0.1,
            "H": 0.9,
            "BB": 0.5,
            "SO": 0.9,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 4.9,
            "Pitches": 17.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 0.7105,
            "WHIP": 1.1053,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.07895,
            "H_per_IP": 0.71053,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.39474,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.71053,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 20,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 31.0,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 5.0,
            "H": 23.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 121.0,
            "Pitches": 426.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.2,
            "ER": 0.2,
            "R": 0.25,
            "H": 1.15,
            "BB": 0.5,
            "SO": 1.1,
            "HR": 0.05,
            "BF": 6.05,
            "Pitches": 21.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.1613,
            "WHIP": 1.0645,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.12903,
            "H_per_IP": 0.74194,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.32258,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.70968,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03226
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 3.0,
        "predicted_ER": 0.889,
        "predicted_H": 2.78,
        "predicted_BB": 1.251,
        "predicted_SO": 2.417,
        "predicted_HR": 0.201,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.7559,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3887
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5362,
      "form_weight": 0.4638,
      "form_reliability": 0.5593,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 6.346,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5593,
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      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.0,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 0.889,
          "final": 2.0209,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.78,
          "final": 2.898,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.251,
          "final": 2.725,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.417,
          "final": 3.2658,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.201,
          "final": 0.0932,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.7559,
          "final": 2.7559,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3887,
          "final": 1.3887,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 12.2,
        "ER": 1,
        "H": 9,
        "BB": 5,
        "SO": 9,
        "HR": 0,
        "ERA": 0.7105263157894737,
        "WHIP": 1.105263157894737,
        "K9": 6.394736842105264,
        "HR9": 0.0,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-22T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8181674503322167,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_size": 6.346,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.5593,
          "prior_weight": 0.4407
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 4,
          "predicted_SO": 4,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "687941",
      "player_name": "Alec Gamboa",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "BOS",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.3333,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
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            {
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            {
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            {
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          ],
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "changed_metrics": [
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        "summary": {
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "BOS",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 85,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.5346,
        "runs_scored": 681.0,
        "runs_allowed": 602.0,
        "run_differential": 79.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.4969,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.283,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7862,
        "offense_index": 0.9536,
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        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 2.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.8,
          "run_differential": -6.0
        },
        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
        "team": "CHC",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 88,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.5535,
        "runs_scored": 841.0,
        "runs_allowed": 695.0,
        "run_differential": 146.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.9182,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.2893,
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        "available": true,
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      "edges": {
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      "player_factors": {
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        "strikeout": 0.9827
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
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        "profile": {
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          "pitcher_id": "687941",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "components": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
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            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 14,
            "primary_pitch": {
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            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 14,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.61910302178109,
                "release_spin_rate": 2102.104436620148,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.6191,
              "release_spin_rate": 2102.1044,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1543,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.1022,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1735,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9853,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9702,
          "walk_factor": 0.9928,
          "homer_factor": 0.9488,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.009,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "687941",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9934,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9934,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9968,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.977,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9866,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 100,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "WRONG_STARTER",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Wrong starter identity",
      "detail": "The projected MLB player ID differs from the official starter ID; performance errors are not attributable to the projected player."
    },
    {
      "code": "FALSE_CONFIRMATION",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Confirmed flag was false assurance",
      "detail": "The server marked this starter confirmed even though a different player started."
    },
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260925_CHC@BOS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260925

20260925_CIN@TOR

away

Nick Lodolo

True

5.0

4/7

1/2

5/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.035369774919614,
      "WHIP": 1.4662379421221865,
      "IP": 103.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 20,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.183,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.733,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.8407,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0715,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.952,
      "walk_factor": 1.008,
      "homer_factor": 1.1163,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 17.3,
      "bb_percent": 9.5,
      "woba": 0.371,
      "xwoba": 0.379,
      "barrel_percent": 9.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 40.9,
      "whiff_percent": 21.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 188,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 20.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8,
        "prior_weight": 0.2
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "666157",
      "report_date": "20260925",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 20,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.2,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 25.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 124.0,
            "Pitches": 486.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 2.6,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 1.4,
            "BF": 24.8,
            "Pitches": 97.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.0233,
            "WHIP": 1.3256,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.55814,
            "H_per_IP": 0.87209,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.45349,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.73256,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.24419
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 52.0,
            "ER": 29.0,
            "R": 29.0,
            "H": 54.0,
            "BB": 22.0,
            "SO": 38.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 231.0,
            "Pitches": 895.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.9,
            "R": 2.9,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 23.1,
            "Pitches": 89.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.0192,
            "WHIP": 1.4615,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.55769,
            "H_per_IP": 1.03846,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42308,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.73077,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.23077
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 20,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 103.2,
            "ER": 58.0,
            "R": 58.0,
            "H": 108.0,
            "BB": 44.0,
            "SO": 80.0,
            "HR": 20.0,
            "BF": 462.0,
            "Pitches": 1807.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.9,
            "R": 2.9,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 23.1,
            "Pitches": 90.35
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.0354,
            "WHIP": 1.4662,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.55949,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0418,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42444,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.7717,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.19293
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 3.031,
        "predicted_H": 5.345,
        "predicted_BB": 2.347,
        "predicted_SO": 4.301,
        "predicted_HR": 1.177,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.9424,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3934
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4345,
      "form_weight": 0.5655,
      "form_reliability": 0.8,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 20.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8,
        "prior_weight": 0.2
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 3.031,
          "final": 2.583,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.345,
          "final": 4.7606,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.347,
          "final": 1.7617,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.301,
          "final": 4.6047,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.177,
          "final": 1.1001,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.9424,
          "final": 4.9424,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3934,
          "final": 1.3934,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 52.0,
        "ER": 29,
        "H": 54,
        "BB": 22,
        "SO": 38,
        "HR": 12,
        "ERA": 5.019230769230769,
        "WHIP": 1.4615384615384615,
        "K9": 6.576923076923077,
        "HR9": 2.076923076923077,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-19T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.061942200538829,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 20.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8,
          "prior_weight": 0.2
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "666157",
      "player_name": "Nick Lodolo",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CIN",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -0.6667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1176,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -0.6667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1176,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": -0.6667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1177,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": -0.6667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1177,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CIN",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 85,
        "win_pct": 0.4654,
        "runs_scored": 655.0,
        "runs_allowed": 814.0,
        "run_differential": -159.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.0,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1195,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1195,
        "offense_index": 0.9206,
        "defense_index": 0.8741,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": -14.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1873
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TOR",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 77,
        "losses": 82,
        "win_pct": 0.4843,
        "runs_scored": 636.0,
        "runs_allowed": 683.0,
        "run_differential": -47.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2956,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2956,
        "offense_index": 0.8939,
        "defense_index": 1.0418,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": -9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1197
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0676,
        "offense_edge": -0.0794,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.1061,
        "defense_strength": -0.1259,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0418,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9978,
        "run_prevention": 0.999,
        "strikeout": 1.0065
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "666157",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "666157",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 424.0,
            "k_percent": 17.3,
            "bb_percent": 9.5,
            "woba": 0.371,
            "xwoba": 0.379,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 37.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 40.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.3897,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.6818,
            "whiff_percent": 21.3,
            "swing_percent": 45.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -1.2235,
            "command_and_miss": -0.5071,
            "regression_edge": -0.2286,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.9429,
            "barrel_edge": -0.5111,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.4286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.5286,
            "bb_edge": -0.1,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.01
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "666157",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 97,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 97,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.68483136256282,
              "release_spin_rate": 2271.767796156934,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 97,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.68483136256282,
                "release_spin_rate": 2271.767796156934,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.6848,
              "release_spin_rate": 2271.7678,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.01,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.0715,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.8407,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0715,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.952,
          "walk_factor": 1.008,
          "homer_factor": 1.1163,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.008,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "666157",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0715,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0715,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.008,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.1163,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.952,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 79,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260925_CIN@TOR.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260925

20260925_CIN@TOR

home

José Soriano

True

6.0

3.0

-9

4/8

1/0

6/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "WHIP": 1.2619502868068833,
      "IP": 174.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 31,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.624,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.0,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0113,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.999,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0269,
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      "homer_factor": 1.0058,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.9,
      "bb_percent": 10.0,
      "woba": 0.296,
      "xwoba": 0.321,
      "barrel_percent": 7.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.1,
      "whiff_percent": 28.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": null,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
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      "shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "667755",
      "report_date": "20260925",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 31,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
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          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.0,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 24.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 126.0,
            "Pitches": 451.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 3.4,
            "R": 3.6,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 25.2,
            "Pitches": 90.2
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.1333,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.56667,
            "H_per_IP": 0.86667,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26667,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.8,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13333
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 56.1,
            "ER": 27.0,
            "R": 30.0,
            "H": 53.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 45.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 238.0,
            "Pitches": 911.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.7,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.3,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 4.5,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 23.8,
            "Pitches": 91.1
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.2781,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.47929,
            "H_per_IP": 0.94083,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33728,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.79882,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08876
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 31,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 174.1,
            "ER": 72.0,
            "R": 78.0,
            "H": 147.0,
            "BB": 73.0,
            "SO": 167.0,
            "HR": 17.0,
            "BF": 729.0,
            "Pitches": 2868.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.3226,
            "R": 2.5161,
            "H": 4.7419,
            "BB": 2.3548,
            "SO": 5.3871,
            "HR": 0.5484,
            "BF": 23.5161,
            "Pitches": 92.5161
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.717,
            "WHIP": 1.262,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.413,
            "H_per_IP": 0.84321,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.41874,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.95793,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09751
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.958,
        "predicted_H": 5.266,
        "predicted_BB": 1.926,
        "predicted_SO": 4.941,
        "predicted_HR": 0.677,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.5575,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2309
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4087,
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      "form_reliability": 0.8611,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.958,
          "final": 2.9752,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.266,
          "final": 4.7486,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "form": 1.926,
          "final": 1.5476,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 0.677,
          "final": 0.809,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.5575,
          "final": 4.5575,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2309,
          "final": 1.2309,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 56.1,
        "ER": 27,
        "H": 53,
        "BB": 19,
        "SO": 45,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 4.313609467455621,
        "WHIP": 1.2781065088757395,
        "K9": 7.189349112426036,
        "HR9": 0.7988165680473372,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-19T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9779740052725567,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_size": 31.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8611,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "667755",
      "player_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TOR",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TOR",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 77,
        "losses": 82,
        "win_pct": 0.4843,
        "runs_scored": 636.0,
        "runs_allowed": 683.0,
        "run_differential": -47.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2956,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2956,
        "offense_index": 0.8939,
        "defense_index": 1.0418,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": -9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1197
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CIN",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 85,
        "win_pct": 0.4654,
        "runs_scored": 655.0,
        "runs_allowed": 814.0,
        "run_differential": -159.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.0,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1195,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1195,
        "offense_index": 0.9206,
        "defense_index": 0.8741,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": -14.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1873
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0676,
        "offense_edge": -0.1061,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0794,
        "defense_strength": 0.0418,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.1259,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0071,
        "run_prevention": 0.9797,
        "strikeout": 1.0084
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "667755",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "667755",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 700.0,
            "k_percent": 22.9,
            "bb_percent": 10.0,
            "woba": 0.296,
            "xwoba": 0.321,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.0674,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.913,
            "whiff_percent": 28.8,
            "swing_percent": 46.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0314,
            "command_and_miss": 0.2029,
            "regression_edge": -0.7143,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.2857,
            "barrel_edge": -0.0222,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.1143,
            "whiff_edge": 0.5429,
            "bb_edge": -0.225,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1549
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "667755",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 94,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 94,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.6295640052384,
              "release_spin_rate": 2055.298636966367,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 94,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.6295640052384,
                "release_spin_rate": 2055.298636966367,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.6296,
              "release_spin_rate": 2055.2986,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1549,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.1064,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0113,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.999,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0269,
          "walk_factor": 1.018,
          "homer_factor": 1.0058,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.025,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "667755",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.999,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.999,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.018,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0058,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0269,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 99,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -9 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260925_CIN@TOR.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260925

20260925_CLE@KC

away

Gavin Williams

True

5.2

3.1

-7

3/5

0/4

8/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.6298342541436464,
      "WHIP": 1.0828729281767955,
      "IP": 181.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 31,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.839,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.267,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.262,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9777,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.1126,
      "walk_factor": 0.974,
      "homer_factor": 1.1135,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 33.5,
      "bb_percent": 7.8,
      "woba": 0.289,
      "xwoba": 0.299,
      "barrel_percent": 11.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 46.5,
      "whiff_percent": 33.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 29,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "668909",
      "report_date": "20260925",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 31,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.1,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 19.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 43.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 107.0,
            "Pitches": 460.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 3.8,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 8.6,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 21.4,
            "Pitches": 92.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0759,
            "WHIP": 1.0633,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.34177,
            "H_per_IP": 0.72152,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34177,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.63291,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07595
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 54.2,
            "ER": 20.0,
            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 37.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 88.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 220.0,
            "Pitches": 939.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.1,
            "H": 3.7,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 8.8,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 93.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.2927,
            "WHIP": 1.0427,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.36585,
            "H_per_IP": 0.67683,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36585,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.60976,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12805
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 31,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 181.0,
            "ER": 73.0,
            "R": 77.0,
            "H": 139.0,
            "BB": 57.0,
            "SO": 244.0,
            "HR": 27.0,
            "BF": 728.0,
            "Pitches": 2917.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.3548,
            "R": 2.4839,
            "H": 4.4839,
            "BB": 1.8387,
            "SO": 7.871,
            "HR": 0.871,
            "BF": 23.4839,
            "Pitches": 94.0968
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6298,
            "WHIP": 1.0829,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.40331,
            "H_per_IP": 0.76796,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31492,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.34807,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14917
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.106,
        "predicted_H": 4.135,
        "predicted_BB": 1.92,
        "predicted_SO": 8.133,
        "predicted_HR": 0.629,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.4504,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.102
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4087,
      "form_weight": 0.5913,
      "form_reliability": 0.8611,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.106,
          "final": 2.4714,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.135,
          "final": 3.6711,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.92,
          "final": 1.1353,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 8.133,
          "final": 6.8526,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.629,
          "final": 0.7806,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.4504,
          "final": 3.4504,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.102,
          "final": 1.102,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 54.2,
        "ER": 20,
        "H": 37,
        "BB": 20,
        "SO": 88,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 3.2926829268292686,
        "WHIP": 1.0426829268292683,
        "K9": 14.487804878048781,
        "HR9": 1.152439024390244,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-20T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8572341799009302,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 31.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8611,
          "prior_weight": 0.1389
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 8,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "668909",
      "player_name": "Gavin Williams",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CLE",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 3.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.6,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 3.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.6,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.2,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 3.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.6,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
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          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
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            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 3.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.6,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CLE",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 83,
        "losses": 76,
        "win_pct": 0.522,
        "runs_scored": 653.0,
        "runs_allowed": 650.0,
        "run_differential": 3.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0189,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1069,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0881,
        "offense_index": 0.9183,
        "defense_index": 1.094,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.0,
          "run_differential": 17.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.126
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "KC",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 68,
        "losses": 91,
        "win_pct": 0.4277,
        "runs_scored": 673.0,
        "runs_allowed": 785.0,
        "run_differential": -112.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.7044,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2327,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9371,
        "offense_index": 0.9464,
        "defense_index": 0.9059,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.1,
          "run_differential": -21.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2531
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.3791,
        "offense_edge": -0.0817,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0536,
        "defense_strength": 0.094,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0941,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.6
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0201,
        "run_prevention": 0.9631,
        "strikeout": 1.0157
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "668909",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "668909",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 700.0,
            "k_percent": 33.5,
            "bb_percent": 7.8,
            "woba": 0.289,
            "xwoba": 0.299,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 11.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 46.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.1714,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.9438,
            "whiff_percent": 33.2,
            "swing_percent": 49.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.0538,
            "command_and_miss": 1.2143,
            "regression_edge": -0.2857,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.3429,
            "barrel_edge": -0.9333,
            "hard_hit_edge": -1.2286,
            "whiff_edge": 1.1714,
            "bb_edge": 0.325,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0624
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "668909",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 93,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 93,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.97845935651245,
              "release_spin_rate": 2292.19753528252,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 93,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.97845935651245,
                "release_spin_rate": 2292.19753528252,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.9785,
              "release_spin_rate": 2292.1975,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0624,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.4459,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.262,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9777,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.1126,
          "walk_factor": 0.974,
          "homer_factor": 1.1135,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.01,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "668909",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9777,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9777,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.974,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.1135,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 9.0,
            "factor": 1.1126,
            "adjusted": 10
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 80,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -7 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260925_CLE@KC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260925

20260925_CLE@KC

home

Noah Cameron

True

5.2

5.0

-2

5/7

3/4

6/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "WHIP": 1.2011605415860733,
      "IP": 172.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 30,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.701,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.8,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0091,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0008,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0051,
      "walk_factor": 0.968,
      "homer_factor": 1.0158,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.6,
      "bb_percent": 7.5,
      "woba": 0.3,
      "xwoba": 0.31,
      "barrel_percent": 8.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
      "whiff_percent": 26.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 65,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
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        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "702070",
      "report_date": "20260925",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 30,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 29.0,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 25.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 27.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 118.0,
            "Pitches": 445.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 5.4,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 23.6,
            "Pitches": 89.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4138,
            "WHIP": 1.1379,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.37931,
            "H_per_IP": 0.86207,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.27586,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.93103,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17241
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 64.2,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 38.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 55.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 245.0,
            "Pitches": 949.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 3.8,
            "BB": 1.7,
            "SO": 5.5,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 24.5,
            "Pitches": 94.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.2268,
            "WHIP": 0.8505,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.24742,
            "H_per_IP": 0.58763,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26289,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.85052,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07732
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 30,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 172.1,
            "ER": 75.0,
            "R": 80.0,
            "H": 153.0,
            "BB": 54.0,
            "SO": 155.0,
            "HR": 19.0,
            "BF": 718.0,
            "Pitches": 2792.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.5,
            "R": 2.6667,
            "H": 5.1,
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            "SO": 5.1667,
            "HR": 0.6333,
            "BF": 23.9333,
            "Pitches": 93.0667
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9168,
            "WHIP": 1.2012,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4352,
            "H_per_IP": 0.88781,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31335,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.89942,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11025
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.161,
        "predicted_H": 4.703,
        "predicted_BB": 1.719,
        "predicted_SO": 5.293,
        "predicted_HR": 0.762,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.3156,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0946
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "model_weight": 0.4104,
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      "form_reliability": 0.8571,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 2.161,
          "final": 2.0949,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "form": 4.703,
          "final": 4.8249,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "final": 2.2447,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 5.293,
          "final": 5.5831,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 0.762,
          "final": 0.8597,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "form": 3.3156,
          "final": 3.3156,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
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          "form": 1.0946,
          "final": 1.0946,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 64.2,
        "ER": 16,
        "H": 38,
        "BB": 17,
        "SO": 55,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 2.22680412371134,
        "WHIP": 0.8505154639175257,
        "K9": 7.654639175257731,
        "HR9": 0.6958762886597938,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-19T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7325186279773697,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 30.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8571,
          "prior_weight": 0.1429
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "702070",
      "player_name": "Noah Cameron",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "KC",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "KC",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 68,
        "losses": 91,
        "win_pct": 0.4277,
        "runs_scored": 673.0,
        "runs_allowed": 785.0,
        "run_differential": -112.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.7044,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2327,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9371,
        "offense_index": 0.9464,
        "defense_index": 0.9059,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.1,
          "run_differential": -21.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2531
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CLE",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 83,
        "losses": 76,
        "win_pct": 0.522,
        "runs_scored": 653.0,
        "runs_allowed": 650.0,
        "run_differential": 3.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0189,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1069,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0881,
        "offense_index": 0.9183,
        "defense_index": 1.094,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.0,
          "run_differential": 17.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.126
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.3791,
        "offense_edge": -0.0536,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0817,
        "defense_strength": -0.0941,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.094,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.6
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9853,
        "run_prevention": 1.0153,
        "strikeout": 0.9952
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "702070",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "702070",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 687.0,
            "k_percent": 21.6,
            "bb_percent": 7.5,
            "woba": 0.3,
            "xwoba": 0.31,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.871,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9779,
            "whiff_percent": 26.3,
            "swing_percent": 48.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0039,
            "command_and_miss": 0.1193,
            "regression_edge": -0.2857,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.0286,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2222,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.0286,
            "whiff_edge": 0.1857,
            "bb_edge": 0.4,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1714
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "702070",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 87,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 87,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 86.80222764841449,
              "release_spin_rate": 2194.1160947580797,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 87,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 86.80222764841449,
                "release_spin_rate": 2194.1160947580797,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 86.8022,
              "release_spin_rate": 2194.1161,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1714,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.2246,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0091,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0008,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0051,
          "walk_factor": 0.968,
          "homer_factor": 1.0158,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.01,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "702070",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0008,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0008,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.968,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0158,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0051,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 110,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260925_CLE@KC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260925

20260925_COL@CHW

away

Tomoyuki Sugano

True

5.0

6.2

-2

6/6

2/0

3/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.363431151241535,
      "WHIP": 1.3340857787810385,
      "IP": 147.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.274,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.2,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.9839,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0836,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9229,
      "walk_factor": 0.932,
      "homer_factor": 1.1749,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 14.4,
      "bb_percent": 5.7,
      "woba": 0.358,
      "xwoba": 0.381,
      "barrel_percent": 11.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 43.7,
      "whiff_percent": 19.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 110,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "608372",
      "report_date": "20260925",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.0,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 29.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 20.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 115.0,
            "Pitches": 440.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 4.2,
            "R": 4.2,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 23.0,
            "Pitches": 88.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.2692,
            "WHIP": 1.4231,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.80769,
            "H_per_IP": 1.11538,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30769,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.76923,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.19231
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 51.2,
            "ER": 38.0,
            "R": 39.0,
            "H": 61.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 35.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 226.0,
            "Pitches": 882.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.8,
            "R": 3.9,
            "H": 6.1,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 3.5,
            "HR": 1.1,
            "BF": 22.6,
            "Pitches": 88.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.6194,
            "WHIP": 1.4129,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.73548,
            "H_per_IP": 1.18065,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23226,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.67742,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.2129
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 28,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 147.2,
            "ER": 88.0,
            "R": 91.0,
            "H": 161.0,
            "BB": 36.0,
            "SO": 91.0,
            "HR": 31.0,
            "BF": 631.0,
            "Pitches": 2432.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.1429,
            "R": 3.25,
            "H": 5.75,
            "BB": 1.2857,
            "SO": 3.25,
            "HR": 1.1071,
            "BF": 22.5357,
            "Pitches": 86.8571
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.3634,
            "WHIP": 1.3341,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.59594,
            "H_per_IP": 1.09029,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.24379,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.61625,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.20993
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 3.763,
        "predicted_H": 5.923,
        "predicted_BB": 1.52,
        "predicted_SO": 3.954,
        "predicted_HR": 1.039,
        "predicted_ERA": 6.3507,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3957
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.414,
      "form_weight": 0.586,
      "form_reliability": 0.8485,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 3.763,
          "final": 5.1031,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.923,
          "final": 5.9549,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.52,
          "final": 1.7187,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.954,
          "final": 3.559,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.039,
          "final": 1.4369,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 6.3507,
          "final": 6.3507,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3957,
          "final": 1.3957,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
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        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
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      "pitching": {
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        "BB": 12,
        "SO": 35,
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        "games_pitched": 10,
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        "dominant_form": false,
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      "fielding": {
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        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-20T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.2407402774619058,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 28.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8485,
          "prior_weight": 0.1515
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
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          "predicted_SO": 3,
          "predicted_HR": 2
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "608372",
      "player_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "COL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
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            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 7.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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            "material": true
          },
          {
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            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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        ],
        "summary": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "COL",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 57,
        "losses": 102,
        "win_pct": 0.3585,
        "runs_scored": 740.0,
        "runs_allowed": 928.0,
        "run_differential": -188.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.1824,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6541,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.8365,
        "offense_index": 1.0406,
        "defense_index": 0.7663,
        "current_streak": "L4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.3,
          "run_differential": -19.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3707
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CHW",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 82,
        "losses": 77,
        "win_pct": 0.5157,
        "runs_scored": 760.0,
        "runs_allowed": 708.0,
        "run_differential": 52.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.327,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7799,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4528,
        "offense_index": 1.0688,
        "defense_index": 1.0044,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": 18.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0886
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.4593,
        "offense_edge": 0.0406,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0688,
        "defense_strength": -0.2337,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0044,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.4
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9719,
        "run_prevention": 1.0573,
        "strikeout": 0.9807
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "608372",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "608372",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 602.0,
            "k_percent": 14.4,
            "bb_percent": 5.7,
            "woba": 0.358,
            "xwoba": 0.381,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 37.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 11.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 43.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.9925,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 95.1097,
            "whiff_percent": 19.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -1.3423,
            "command_and_miss": -0.6136,
            "regression_edge": -0.6571,
            "xwoba_edge": -2.0,
            "barrel_edge": -1.0222,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.8286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.8429,
            "bb_edge": 0.85,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0871
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "608372",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 92,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 92,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.30861213850356,
              "release_spin_rate": 2300.4901092326763,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 92,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.30861213850356,
                "release_spin_rate": 2300.4901092326763,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.3086,
              "release_spin_rate": 2300.4901,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0871,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.622,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.9839,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0836,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9229,
          "walk_factor": 0.932,
          "homer_factor": 1.1749,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.023,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "608372",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0836,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0836,
            "adjusted": 7
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.932,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.1749,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9229,
            "adjusted": 4
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 7,
      "predicted_ER": 7,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 92,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260925_COL@CHW.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260925

20260925_COL@CHW

home

Sean Burke

True

5.0

5.1

4/4

0/1

6/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.395209580838323,
      "WHIP": 1.2035928143712575,
      "IP": 167.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 31,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.269,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.4,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0861,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9927,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0229,
      "walk_factor": 0.994,
      "homer_factor": 1.0154,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 25.6,
      "bb_percent": 8.8,
      "woba": 0.303,
      "xwoba": 0.303,
      "barrel_percent": 8.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.0,
      "whiff_percent": 25.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 19,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "680732",
      "report_date": "20260925",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 31,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 21.0,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 20.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 99.0,
            "Pitches": 435.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 3.8,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 19.8,
            "Pitches": 87.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2857,
            "WHIP": 1.8571,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.47619,
            "H_per_IP": 0.95238,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.90476,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.95238,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.04762
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 48.2,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 22.0,
            "H": 43.0,
            "BB": 26.0,
            "SO": 48.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 213.0,
            "Pitches": 881.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.1,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 4.3,
            "BB": 2.6,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 21.3,
            "Pitches": 88.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8836,
            "WHIP": 1.4178,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.43151,
            "H_per_IP": 0.88356,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.53425,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.9863,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10274
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 31,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 167.0,
            "ER": 63.0,
            "R": 66.0,
            "H": 140.0,
            "BB": 61.0,
            "SO": 178.0,
            "HR": 18.0,
            "BF": 695.0,
            "Pitches": 2789.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.0323,
            "R": 2.129,
            "H": 4.5161,
            "BB": 1.9677,
            "SO": 5.7419,
            "HR": 0.5806,
            "BF": 22.4194,
            "Pitches": 89.9677
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.3952,
            "WHIP": 1.2036,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.37725,
            "H_per_IP": 0.83832,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36527,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.06587,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10778
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.163,
        "predicted_H": 4.398,
        "predicted_BB": 3.009,
        "predicted_SO": 4.703,
        "predicted_HR": 0.426,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.0569,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.5434
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4087,
      "form_weight": 0.5913,
      "form_reliability": 0.8611,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.163,
          "final": 1.6877,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.398,
          "final": 4.2353,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 3.009,
          "final": 1.7793,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.703,
          "final": 4.8244,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.426,
          "final": 0.2519,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.0569,
          "final": 4.0569,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.5434,
          "final": 1.5434,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 48.2,
        "ER": 21,
        "H": 43,
        "BB": 26,
        "SO": 48,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 3.8835616438356166,
        "WHIP": 1.4178082191780823,
        "K9": 8.876712328767123,
        "HR9": 0.9246575342465754,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-19T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9330861678728648,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 31.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8611,
          "prior_weight": 0.1389
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "680732",
      "player_name": "Sean Burke",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHW",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.2,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.2,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.2,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.2,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CHW",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 82,
        "losses": 77,
        "win_pct": 0.5157,
        "runs_scored": 760.0,
        "runs_allowed": 708.0,
        "run_differential": 52.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.327,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7799,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4528,
        "offense_index": 1.0688,
        "defense_index": 1.0044,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": 18.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0886
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "COL",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 57,
        "losses": 102,
        "win_pct": 0.3585,
        "runs_scored": 740.0,
        "runs_allowed": 928.0,
        "run_differential": -188.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.1824,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6541,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.8365,
        "offense_index": 1.0406,
        "defense_index": 0.7663,
        "current_streak": "L4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.3,
          "run_differential": -19.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3707
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.4593,
        "offense_edge": 0.0688,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0406,
        "defense_strength": 0.0044,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.2337,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.4
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0169,
        "run_prevention": 0.9831,
        "strikeout": 1.0105
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "680732",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "680732",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 644.0,
            "k_percent": 25.6,
            "bb_percent": 8.8,
            "woba": 0.303,
            "xwoba": 0.303,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 39.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.5292,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.0009,
            "whiff_percent": 25.4,
            "swing_percent": 48.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0319,
            "command_and_miss": 0.2664,
            "regression_edge": 0.0,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.2286,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1571,
            "whiff_edge": 0.0571,
            "bb_edge": 0.075,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0129
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "680732",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 87,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 87,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.63367275202977,
              "release_spin_rate": 2515.4651388536104,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 87,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.63367275202977,
                "release_spin_rate": 2515.4651388536104,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.6337,
              "release_spin_rate": 2515.4651,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0129,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.092,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0861,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9927,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0229,
          "walk_factor": 0.994,
          "homer_factor": 1.0154,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.0,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "680732",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9927,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9927,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.994,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0154,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0229,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 83,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260925_COL@CHW.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260925

20260925_HOU@OAK

away

Hunter Brown

True

5.1

-2

5/2

0/4

6/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.264705882352941,
      "WHIP": 1.2745098039215685,
      "IP": 102.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 19,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.368,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.533,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.5186,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9559,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0474,
      "walk_factor": 1.056,
      "homer_factor": 0.9478,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 28.1,
      "bb_percent": 11.9,
      "woba": 0.294,
      "xwoba": 0.279,
      "barrel_percent": 6.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.3,
      "whiff_percent": 27.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 69,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 19.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7917,
        "prior_weight": 0.2083
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "686613",
      "report_date": "20260925",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 19,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.2,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 23.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 44.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 112.0,
            "Pitches": 482.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 8.8,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 22.4,
            "Pitches": 96.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.6024,
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.28916,
            "H_per_IP": 0.83133,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28916,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.59036,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03614
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 55.0,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 47.0,
            "BB": 23.0,
            "SO": 70.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 227.0,
            "Pitches": 959.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.9,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.7,
            "BB": 2.3,
            "SO": 7.0,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 22.7,
            "Pitches": 95.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1091,
            "WHIP": 1.2727,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.34545,
            "H_per_IP": 0.85455,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.41818,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.27273,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10909
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 19,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 102.0,
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            "SO": 120.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
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            "R": 2.1053,
            "H": 4.1579,
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          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.2647,
            "WHIP": 1.2745,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.36275,
            "H_per_IP": 0.77451,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.5,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.17647,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10784
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
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        "predicted_BB": 2.054,
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        "predicted_ERA": 3.2669,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2374
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.438,
      "form_weight": 0.562,
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 19.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 5.1,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 1.979,
          "final": 2.4262,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.692,
          "final": 4.8269,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.054,
          "final": 1.1543,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 7.091,
          "final": 6.6131,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.497,
          "final": 0.7173,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.2669,
          "final": 3.2669,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2374,
          "final": 1.2374,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
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        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 55.0,
        "ER": 19,
        "H": 47,
        "BB": 23,
        "SO": 70,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 3.109090909090909,
        "WHIP": 1.2727272727272727,
        "K9": 11.454545454545455,
        "HR9": 0.9818181818181818,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-20T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8423311865528149,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 19.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7917,
          "prior_weight": 0.2083
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "686613",
      "player_name": "Hunter Brown",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "HOU",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
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            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 79,
        "losses": 80,
        "win_pct": 0.4969,
        "runs_scored": 707.0,
        "runs_allowed": 758.0,
        "run_differential": -51.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3208,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4465,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7673,
        "offense_index": 0.9932,
        "defense_index": 0.9391,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0,
          "run_differential": -8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.077
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "OAK",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 63,
        "losses": 96,
        "win_pct": 0.3962,
        "runs_scored": 691.0,
        "runs_allowed": 910.0,
        "run_differential": -219.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.3774,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3459,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7233,
        "offense_index": 0.9708,
        "defense_index": 0.7822,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.8,
          "run_differential": -15.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3275
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2505,
        "offense_edge": -0.0068,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0292,
        "defense_strength": -0.0609,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.2178,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0094,
        "run_prevention": 0.9889,
        "strikeout": 1.0099
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "686613",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "686613",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 386.0,
            "k_percent": 28.1,
            "bb_percent": 11.9,
            "woba": 0.294,
            "xwoba": 0.279,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 27.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.3,
            "avg_best_speed": 74.0205,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.2519,
            "whiff_percent": 27.2,
            "swing_percent": 42.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.6617,
            "command_and_miss": 0.3621,
            "regression_edge": 0.4286,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.9143,
            "barrel_edge": 0.2667,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.0857,
            "whiff_edge": 0.3143,
            "bb_edge": -0.7,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1385
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "686613",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 98,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 98,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.33714491013515,
              "release_spin_rate": 2193.36097163242,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 98,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.33714491013515,
                "release_spin_rate": 2193.36097163242,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.3371,
              "release_spin_rate": 2193.361,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1385,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.9894,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.5186,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9559,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0474,
          "walk_factor": 1.056,
          "homer_factor": 0.9478,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.015,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "686613",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9559,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9559,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.056,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9478,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 8.0,
            "factor": 1.0474,
            "adjusted": 8
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 86,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260925_HOU@OAK.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260925

20260925_HOU@OAK

home

Jacob Lopez

True

4.1

6.0

-2

5/2

0/2

7/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.676136363636364,
      "WHIP": 1.5340909090909092,
      "IP": 117.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.725,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.667,
      "last_start_IP": 2.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2022,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9828,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9863,
      "walk_factor": 1.03,
      "homer_factor": 0.9428,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 20.4,
      "bb_percent": 10.6,
      "woba": 0.354,
      "xwoba": 0.296,
      "barrel_percent": 6.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 32.0,
      "whiff_percent": 24.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 352,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
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      "weights": {
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            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.2063,
            "command_and_miss": -0.2179,
            "regression_edge": 1.6571,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.4286,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1333,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.8429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.1143,
            "bb_edge": -0.375,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.28
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "682052",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 97,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 97,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 84.00032129257265,
              "release_spin_rate": 2262.419878494836,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 97,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 84.00032129257265,
                "release_spin_rate": 2262.419878494836,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 84.0003,
              "release_spin_rate": 2262.4199,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.28,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -2.0,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2022,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9828,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9863,
          "walk_factor": 1.03,
          "homer_factor": 0.9428,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.058,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "682052",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9828,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9828,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.03,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9428,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9863,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.1,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 18,
      "Pitches": 70,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260925_HOU@OAK.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260925

20260925_LAA@SEA

away

Reid Detmers

True

6.0

-3

4/2

6/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.46927374301676,
      "WHIP": 1.0502793296089385,
      "IP": 179.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 31,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.774,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.0,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.4617,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9608,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0589,
      "walk_factor": 0.946,
      "homer_factor": 0.9797,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 28.4,
      "bb_percent": 6.4,
      "woba": 0.273,
      "xwoba": 0.279,
      "barrel_percent": 7.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
      "whiff_percent": 28.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 20,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "672282",
      "report_date": "20260925",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 31,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.0,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 28.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 32.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 115.0,
            "Pitches": 473.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 0.4,
            "SO": 6.4,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 23.0,
            "Pitches": 94.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7,
            "WHIP": 1.0,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3,
            "H_per_IP": 0.93333,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.06667,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.06667,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06667
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 59.0,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 47.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 68.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 225.0,
            "Pitches": 907.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.5,
            "R": 1.5,
            "H": 4.7,
            "BB": 0.9,
            "SO": 6.8,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 22.5,
            "Pitches": 90.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.2881,
            "WHIP": 0.9492,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.25424,
            "H_per_IP": 0.79661,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.15254,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.15254,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10169
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 31,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 179.0,
            "ER": 69.0,
            "R": 72.0,
            "H": 142.0,
            "BB": 46.0,
            "SO": 204.0,
            "HR": 19.0,
            "BF": 718.0,
            "Pitches": 2872.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.2258,
            "R": 2.3226,
            "H": 4.5806,
            "BB": 1.4839,
            "SO": 6.5806,
            "HR": 0.6129,
            "BF": 23.1613,
            "Pitches": 92.6452
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4693,
            "WHIP": 1.0503,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.38547,
            "H_per_IP": 0.7933,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25698,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.13966,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10615
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.964,
        "predicted_H": 5.2,
        "predicted_BB": 1.002,
        "predicted_SO": 6.46,
        "predicted_HR": 0.567,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.9744,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0436
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4087,
      "form_weight": 0.5913,
      "form_reliability": 0.8611,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.964,
          "final": 2.3874,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 4.7096,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.002,
          "final": 2.2272,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 6.46,
          "final": 5.0459,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.567,
          "final": 0.3353,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.9744,
          "final": 2.9744,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0436,
          "final": 1.0436,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 59.0,
        "ER": 15,
        "H": 47,
        "BB": 9,
        "SO": 68,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 2.288135593220339,
        "WHIP": 0.9491525423728814,
        "K9": 10.372881355932204,
        "HR9": 0.9152542372881356,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 7,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-19T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.741884345258516,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 31.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8611,
          "prior_weight": 0.1389
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 4,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "672282",
      "player_name": "Reid Detmers",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "LAA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 3.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 3.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 3.0,
            "percent_delta": 1.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 3.0,
            "percent_delta": 1.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "LAA",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 61,
        "losses": 98,
        "win_pct": 0.3836,
        "runs_scored": 641.0,
        "runs_allowed": 732.0,
        "run_differential": -91.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5723,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0314,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6038,
        "offense_index": 0.9005,
        "defense_index": 0.9724,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.2,
          "run_differential": -15.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1693
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SEA",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 85,
        "win_pct": 0.4654,
        "runs_scored": 644.0,
        "runs_allowed": 708.0,
        "run_differential": -64.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4025,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0503,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4528,
        "offense_index": 0.9047,
        "defense_index": 1.0054,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6,
          "run_differential": -7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1139
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0554,
        "offense_edge": -0.0995,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0953,
        "defense_strength": -0.0276,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0054,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0008,
        "run_prevention": 0.9903,
        "strikeout": 1.006
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "672282",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "672282",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 694.0,
            "k_percent": 28.4,
            "bb_percent": 6.4,
            "woba": 0.273,
            "xwoba": 0.279,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.7161,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.2133,
            "whiff_percent": 28.9,
            "swing_percent": 49.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.5256,
            "command_and_miss": 0.7414,
            "regression_edge": -0.1714,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.9143,
            "barrel_edge": -0.0889,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.0,
            "whiff_edge": 0.5571,
            "bb_edge": 0.675,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.103
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "672282",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 96,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 96,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.02393441073,
              "release_spin_rate": 2234.8342638538984,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 96,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.02393441073,
                "release_spin_rate": 2234.8342638538984,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.0239,
              "release_spin_rate": 2234.8343,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.103,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.7359,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.4617,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9608,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0589,
          "walk_factor": 0.946,
          "homer_factor": 0.9797,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.006,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "672282",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9608,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9608,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.946,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9797,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0589,
            "adjusted": 7
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 27,
      "Pitches": 115,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 3 ER."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260925_LAA@SEA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260925

20260925_LAA@SEA

home

Bryce Miller

True

5.1

6.0

4/6

4/2

2/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "WHIP": 1.1538461538461537,
      "IP": 112.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 21,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.383,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.6,
      "last_start_IP": 5.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2686,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9772,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0154,
      "walk_factor": 0.974,
      "homer_factor": 0.9632,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 24.4,
      "bb_percent": 7.8,
      "woba": 0.306,
      "xwoba": 0.295,
      "barrel_percent": 7.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 32.0,
      "whiff_percent": 25.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 125,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 21.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8077,
        "prior_weight": 0.1923
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "682243",
      "report_date": "20260925",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 21,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.0,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 19.0,
            "BB": 18.0,
            "SO": 25.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 105.0,
            "Pitches": 433.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 3.8,
            "BB": 3.6,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 21.0,
            "Pitches": 86.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.087,
            "WHIP": 1.6087,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.56522,
            "H_per_IP": 0.82609,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.78261,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.08696,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.21739
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 49.1,
            "ER": 34.0,
            "R": 36.0,
            "H": 48.0,
            "BB": 26.0,
            "SO": 41.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 218.0,
            "Pitches": 883.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.4,
            "R": 3.6,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 2.6,
            "SO": 4.1,
            "HR": 1.1,
            "BF": 21.8,
            "Pitches": 88.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.2027,
            "WHIP": 1.5,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.68919,
            "H_per_IP": 0.97297,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.52703,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.83108,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.22297
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 21,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 112.2,
            "ER": 50.0,
            "R": 55.0,
            "H": 94.0,
            "BB": 36.0,
            "SO": 112.0,
            "HR": 20.0,
            "BF": 459.0,
            "Pitches": 1793.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.381,
            "R": 2.619,
            "H": 4.4762,
            "BB": 1.7143,
            "SO": 5.3333,
            "HR": 0.9524,
            "BF": 21.8571,
            "Pitches": 85.381
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9941,
            "WHIP": 1.1538,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44379,
            "H_per_IP": 0.83432,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31953,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.99408,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17751
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.851,
        "predicted_H": 4.494,
        "predicted_BB": 2.787,
        "predicted_SO": 4.85,
        "predicted_HR": 0.996,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.1351,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4571
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4312,
      "form_weight": 0.5688,
      "form_reliability": 0.8077,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 21.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8077,
        "prior_weight": 0.1923
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.851,
          "final": 3.3465,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.494,
          "final": 4.281,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.787,
          "final": 3.3101,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.85,
          "final": 3.6209,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.996,
          "final": 0.9977,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.1351,
          "final": 5.1351,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4571,
          "final": 1.4571,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 49.1,
        "ER": 34,
        "H": 48,
        "BB": 26,
        "SO": 41,
        "HR": 11,
        "ERA": 6.202702702702703,
        "WHIP": 1.5,
        "K9": 7.479729729729729,
        "HR9": 2.0067567567567566,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-19T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.19604433151596,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 21.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8077,
          "prior_weight": 0.1923
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "682243",
      "player_name": "Bryce Miller",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SEA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
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              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SEA",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 85,
        "win_pct": 0.4654,
        "runs_scored": 644.0,
        "runs_allowed": 708.0,
        "run_differential": -64.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4025,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0503,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4528,
        "offense_index": 0.9047,
        "defense_index": 1.0054,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6,
          "run_differential": -7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1139
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "LAA",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 61,
        "losses": 98,
        "win_pct": 0.3836,
        "runs_scored": 641.0,
        "runs_allowed": 732.0,
        "run_differential": -91.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5723,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0314,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6038,
        "offense_index": 0.9005,
        "defense_index": 0.9724,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.2,
          "run_differential": -15.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1693
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0554,
        "offense_edge": -0.0953,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0995,
        "defense_strength": 0.0054,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0276,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0064,
        "run_prevention": 0.9808,
        "strikeout": 1.0096
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "682243",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "682243",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 434.0,
            "k_percent": 24.4,
            "bb_percent": 7.8,
            "woba": 0.306,
            "xwoba": 0.295,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 32.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.8613,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 92.9426,
            "whiff_percent": 25.3,
            "swing_percent": 54.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.3092,
            "command_and_miss": 0.2343,
            "regression_edge": 0.3143,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.4571,
            "barrel_edge": -0.1333,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.8429,
            "whiff_edge": 0.0429,
            "bb_edge": 0.325,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0394
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "682243",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 87,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 87,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.56804412225787,
              "release_spin_rate": 2160.500947400786,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 87,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.56804412225787,
                "release_spin_rate": 2160.500947400786,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.568,
              "release_spin_rate": 2160.5009,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0394,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.2817,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2686,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9772,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0154,
          "walk_factor": 0.974,
          "homer_factor": 0.9632,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.011,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "682243",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9772,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9772,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.974,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9632,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0154,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 2,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 95,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260925_LAA@SEA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260925

20260925_LAD@SF

away

Tarik Skubal

True

6.1

7.0

-1

2/3

1/0

7/10

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.8483516483516484,
      "WHIP": 0.989010989010989,
      "IP": 151.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.067,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.2,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.6883,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9415,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0777,
      "walk_factor": 0.908,
      "homer_factor": 0.9467,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 29.5,
      "bb_percent": 4.5,
      "woba": 0.27,
      "xwoba": 0.271,
      "barrel_percent": 6.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.5,
      "whiff_percent": 31.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 17,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669373",
      "report_date": "20260925",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 25,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 31.0,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 29.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 30.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 124.0,
            "Pitches": 455.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 6.0,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 24.8,
            "Pitches": 91.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.6129,
            "WHIP": 1.129,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.29032,
            "H_per_IP": 0.93548,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.19355,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.96774,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06452
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 61.2,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 22.0,
            "H": 53.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 66.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 248.0,
            "Pitches": 942.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.1,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 5.3,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 6.6,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 24.8,
            "Pitches": 94.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0649,
            "WHIP": 1.0865,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.34054,
            "H_per_IP": 0.85946,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.22703,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.07027,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06486
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 25,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 151.2,
            "ER": 48.0,
            "R": 52.0,
            "H": 123.0,
            "BB": 27.0,
            "SO": 176.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 597.0,
            "Pitches": 2281.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.92,
            "R": 2.08,
            "H": 4.92,
            "BB": 1.08,
            "SO": 7.04,
            "HR": 0.56,
            "BF": 23.88,
            "Pitches": 91.24
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.8484,
            "WHIP": 0.989,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.31648,
            "H_per_IP": 0.81099,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.17802,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.16044,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09231
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.141,
        "predicted_H": 5.567,
        "predicted_BB": 1.431,
        "predicted_SO": 6.332,
        "predicted_HR": 0.515,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.1177,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1321
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4204,
      "form_weight": 0.5796,
      "form_reliability": 0.8333,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.1,
          "form": 6.1,
          "final": 6.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.141,
          "final": 1.6613,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 5.567,
          "final": 4.0673,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.431,
          "final": 1.2498,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 6.332,
          "final": 6.6128,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.515,
          "final": 1.1393,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.1177,
          "final": 3.1177,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1321,
          "final": 1.1321,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 61.2,
        "ER": 21,
        "H": 53,
        "BB": 14,
        "SO": 66,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 3.064864864864865,
        "WHIP": 1.0864864864864865,
        "K9": 9.632432432432433,
        "HR9": 0.5837837837837838,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 7,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-19T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8326997369213652,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 25.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8333,
          "prior_weight": 0.1667
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.1,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 2,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669373",
      "player_name": "Tarik Skubal",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "LAD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
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          },
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        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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            "biggest_deboost": null
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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        ],
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "losses": 62,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 1.2201,
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        },
        "available": true,
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        "runs_scored": 665.0,
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      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669373",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669373",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "league_medians": {
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          "components": {
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            "xwoba_edge": 1.1429,
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          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669373",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 95,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 95,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.63147798168428,
              "release_spin_rate": 2173.3742821287633,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 95,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.63147798168428,
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                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.6315,
              "release_spin_rate": 2173.3743,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
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              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": 1.1071,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.6883,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9415,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0777,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.001,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "669373",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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          "predicted_BB": {
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            "factor": 0.908,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
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            "factor": 0.9467,
            "adjusted": 0
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          "predicted_SO": {
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            "factor": 1.0777,
            "adjusted": 6
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 102,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260925_LAD@SF.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260925

20260925_LAD@SF

home

Yunior Marte

True

4.2

5.0

-1

3/6

3/1

6/4

Last 10 before this game (4 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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    },
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      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 13.3,
      "bb_percent": 10.8,
      "woba": 0.342,
      "xwoba": 0.336,
      "barrel_percent": 11.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.3,
      "whiff_percent": 18.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 707,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
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      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
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      "effective_weights": {
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      },
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      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "805074",
      "report_date": "20260925",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 4,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
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          "totals": {
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            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 11.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
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          },
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          },
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.51724,
            "H_per_IP": 0.93103,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.46552,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.56897,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15517
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 4,
          "totals": {
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            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 10.0,
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            "BB": 9.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
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          },
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            "HR_per_IP": 0.15517
          }
        },
        "season": {
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          "totals": {
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            "ER": 10.0,
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            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 11.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.5,
            "R": 2.5,
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            "SO": 2.75,
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          },
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            "SO_per_IP": 0.56897,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15517
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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        "predicted_ER": 2.402,
        "predicted_H": 4.483,
        "predicted_BB": 1.945,
        "predicted_SO": 3.608,
        "predicted_HR": 0.708,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.6329,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3774
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "final": 3.6158,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
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        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "insufficient_data"
      },
      "pitching": {
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        "ER": 10,
        "H": 18,
        "BB": 9,
        "SO": 11,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 4.655172413793103,
        "WHIP": 1.3965517241379308,
        "K9": 5.120689655172413,
        "HR9": 1.3965517241379308,
        "games_pitched": 4,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 4,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 4,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-19T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0124470698741688,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 4.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.4444,
          "prior_weight": 0.5556
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "805074",
      "player_name": "Yunior Marte",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SF",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1,
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SF",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 65,
        "losses": 94,
        "win_pct": 0.4088,
        "runs_scored": 665.0,
        "runs_allowed": 749.0,
        "run_differential": -84.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5283,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1824,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7107,
        "offense_index": 0.9342,
        "defense_index": 0.9504,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6,
          "run_differential": -9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2124
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "LAD",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 97,
        "losses": 62,
        "win_pct": 0.6101,
        "runs_scored": 790.0,
        "runs_allowed": 596.0,
        "run_differential": 194.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.2201,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9686,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7484,
        "offense_index": 1.1098,
        "defense_index": 1.1943,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.5,
          "run_differential": 24.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3135
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.5259,
        "offense_edge": -0.0658,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1098,
        "defense_strength": -0.0496,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1943,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.4
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9731,
        "run_prevention": 1.0488,
        "strikeout": 0.9754
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "805074",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "805074",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 59.0,
            "k_percent": 13.3,
            "bb_percent": 10.8,
            "woba": 0.342,
            "xwoba": 0.336,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 11.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 41.3,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.7741,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.6032,
            "whiff_percent": 18.6,
            "swing_percent": 44.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.4937,
            "command_and_miss": -0.9643,
            "regression_edge": 0.1714,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.7143,
            "barrel_edge": -0.8667,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.4857,
            "whiff_edge": -0.9143,
            "bb_edge": -0.425,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0613
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "805074",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 71,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 71,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.76853497379813,
              "release_spin_rate": 1889.510442161121,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 71,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.76853497379813,
                "release_spin_rate": 1889.510442161121,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.7685,
              "release_spin_rate": 1889.5104,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0613,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.4381,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2317,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0197,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9612,
          "walk_factor": 1.0153,
          "homer_factor": 1.0496,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.006,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "805074",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0089,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0089,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0069,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0223,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9825,
            "adjusted": 2
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 92,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 4 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260925_LAD@SF.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260925

20260925_NYM@WAS

away

Jefry Yan

True

4.0

1.2

-7

2/3

0/2

2/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.339285714285714,
      "WHIP": 1.607142857142857,
      "IP": 18.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 17,
      "role_avg_IP": 3.0,
      "recent_avg_IP": 3.0,
      "last_start_IP": 3.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1778,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9849,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0494,
      "walk_factor": 1.0513,
      "homer_factor": 0.9823,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 29.6,
      "bb_percent": 14.8,
      "woba": 0.314,
      "xwoba": 0.301,
      "barrel_percent": 4.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 40.9,
      "whiff_percent": 36.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 554,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 3.821,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.4332,
        "prior_weight": 0.5668
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "642376",
      "report_date": "20260925",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 17,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 7.0,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 10.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 29.0,
            "Pitches": 117.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.1,
            "ER": 0.6,
            "R": 0.6,
            "H": 1.0,
            "BB": 0.6,
            "SO": 2.0,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 5.8,
            "Pitches": 23.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8571,
            "WHIP": 1.1429,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "H_per_IP": 0.71429,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.42857,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.28571
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 12.1,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 11.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 18.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 56.0,
            "Pitches": 220.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.1,
            "ER": 0.6,
            "R": 0.7,
            "H": 1.1,
            "BB": 0.7,
            "SO": 1.8,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 5.6,
            "Pitches": 22.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.3784,
            "WHIP": 1.4595,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.48649,
            "H_per_IP": 0.89189,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.56757,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.45946,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16216
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 17,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 18.2,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 17.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 25.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 86.0,
            "Pitches": 330.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.5294,
            "R": 0.5882,
            "H": 1.0,
            "BB": 0.7647,
            "SO": 1.4706,
            "HR": 0.1765,
            "BF": 5.0588,
            "Pitches": 19.4118
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.3393,
            "WHIP": 1.6071,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.48214,
            "H_per_IP": 0.91071,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.69643,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.33929,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16071
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 3.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.564,
        "predicted_H": 2.91,
        "predicted_BB": 1.418,
        "predicted_SO": 3.662,
        "predicted_HR": 0.571,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.4076,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3553
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5895,
      "form_weight": 0.4105,
      "form_reliability": 0.4332,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 3.821,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.4332,
        "prior_weight": 0.5668
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 3.1,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.564,
          "final": 1.821,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.91,
          "final": 2.3736,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.418,
          "final": 0.5821,
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        {
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          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
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          "stats": {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "changed_metrics": [
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            "material": true
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "losses": 86,
        "win_pct": 0.4591,
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        "run_differential": -35.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2201,
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        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5094,
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "wins": 75,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0566,
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        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0189,
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
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        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "642376",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.8,
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          "league_medians": {
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          "components": {
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            "regression_edge": 0.3714,
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            "pitch_design_score": 0.272
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "642376",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 26,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 26,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 94.72026896051943,
              "release_spin_rate": 2440.8606862686183,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            },
            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 26,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 94.72026896051943,
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                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 94.7203,
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            "components": {
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            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1778,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.013,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "642376",
            "espn_rank": null
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9932,
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9932,
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0231,
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          "predicted_HR": {
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            "factor": 0.992,
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          "predicted_SO": {
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            "factor": 1.0222,
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.0,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 2,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 14,
      "Pitches": 60,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
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  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -7 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260925_NYM@WAS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260925

20260925_NYM@WAS

home

Andrew Alvarez

True

5.2

4.2

-3

4/7

0/3

6/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "ERA": 3.1666666666666665,
      "WHIP": 1.2592592592592593,
      "IP": 108.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 24,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.083,
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      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
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      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9955,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0171,
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      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.8,
      "bb_percent": 10.7,
      "woba": 0.288,
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      "barrel_percent": 5.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.7,
      "whiff_percent": 26.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 48,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 108.0,
      "season_ERA": 3.167,
      "season_WHIP": 1.259,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
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        "last_10": 0.35,
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      "effective_weights": {
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        "season": 0.2
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      "shrinkage": {
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        "prior_size": 5.0,
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      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "674841",
      "report_date": "20260925",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 24,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
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          "totals": {
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      {
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        {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
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        "profile": {
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          "pitcher_id": "674841",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
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            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
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            "primary_pitch": {
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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        "adjusted_fields": {
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            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9792,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0171,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 85,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260925_NYM@WAS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260925

20260925_PIT@DET

away

Bubba Chandler

True

5.0

2.2

-7

4/4

1/4

7/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.341409691629956,
      "WHIP": 1.3744493392070485,
      "IP": 151.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 30,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.034,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.2,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0838,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0071,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9777,
      "walk_factor": 1.05,
      "homer_factor": 0.9922,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.0,
      "bb_percent": 11.6,
      "woba": 0.313,
      "xwoba": 0.316,
      "barrel_percent": 6.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.9,
      "whiff_percent": 22.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 120,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "696149",
      "report_date": "20260925",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 30,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.0,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 24.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 110.0,
            "Pitches": 446.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 89.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.1538,
            "WHIP": 1.3846,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46154,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38462,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.92308,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15385
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 50.2,
            "ER": 23.0,
            "R": 27.0,
            "H": 48.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 48.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 215.0,
            "Pitches": 893.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.3,
            "R": 2.7,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 21.5,
            "Pitches": 89.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.0855,
            "WHIP": 1.3421,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.45395,
            "H_per_IP": 0.94737,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.39474,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.94737,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09868
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 30,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 151.1,
            "ER": 73.0,
            "R": 83.0,
            "H": 132.0,
            "BB": 76.0,
            "SO": 138.0,
            "HR": 15.0,
            "BF": 657.0,
            "Pitches": 2609.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.4333,
            "R": 2.7667,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 2.5333,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 21.9,
            "Pitches": 86.9667
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.3414,
            "WHIP": 1.3744,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.48238,
            "H_per_IP": 0.87225,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.5022,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.91189,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09912
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.411,
        "predicted_H": 4.924,
        "predicted_BB": 2.087,
        "predicted_SO": 4.772,
        "predicted_HR": 0.652,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.2314,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3669
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4104,
      "form_weight": 0.5896,
      "form_reliability": 0.8571,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.411,
          "final": 2.6527,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.924,
          "final": 4.5448,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.087,
          "final": 1.6409,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 4.772,
          "final": 5.6863,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.652,
          "final": 0.7948,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.2314,
          "final": 4.2314,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3669,
          "final": 1.3669,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 50.2,
        "ER": 23,
        "H": 48,
        "BB": 20,
        "SO": 48,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 4.0855263157894735,
        "WHIP": 1.3421052631578947,
        "K9": 8.526315789473685,
        "HR9": 0.8881578947368421,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 2,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-19T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9539146195671689,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 30.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8571,
          "prior_weight": 0.1429
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "696149",
      "player_name": "Bubba Chandler",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PIT",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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          },
          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "PIT",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 81,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.5094,
        "runs_scored": 753.0,
        "runs_allowed": 725.0,
        "run_differential": 28.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1761,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7358,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5597,
        "offense_index": 1.0583,
        "defense_index": 0.9814,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.6,
          "run_differential": 3.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0996
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "DET",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 85,
        "win_pct": 0.4654,
        "runs_scored": 709.0,
        "runs_allowed": 638.0,
        "run_differential": 71.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.4465,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4591,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0126,
        "offense_index": 0.9964,
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        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0095
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1091,
        "offense_edge": 0.0583,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0036,
        "defense_strength": -0.0186,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1153,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0039,
        "run_prevention": 0.9958,
        "strikeout": 1.0036
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "696149",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "696149",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 634.0,
            "k_percent": 21.0,
            "bb_percent": 11.6,
            "woba": 0.313,
            "xwoba": 0.316,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.6137,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9769,
            "whiff_percent": 22.1,
            "swing_percent": 46.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.019,
            "command_and_miss": -0.3343,
            "regression_edge": -0.0857,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.1429,
            "barrel_edge": 0.2222,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4143,
            "bb_edge": -0.625,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.2792
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "696149",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 88,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 88,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 94.85024086236014,
              "release_spin_rate": 2332.2239071943923,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 88,
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                "release_spin_rate": 2332.2239071943923,
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                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 94.8502,
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            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.2792,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": 1.9946,
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              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0838,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0071,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9777,
          "walk_factor": 1.05,
          "homer_factor": 0.9922,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.003,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "696149",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0071,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0071,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.05,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9922,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9777,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 85,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -7 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260925_PIT@DET.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260925

20260925_PIT@DET

home

Jackson Jobe

True

5.1

2/3

3/2

5/8

Last 10 before this game (8 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "games_started": null,
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      "role_avg_IP": 5.083,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.333,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0325,
      "sample_weight": 0.588,
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      "strikeout_factor": 1.005,
      "walk_factor": 0.9882,
      "homer_factor": 1.0204,
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      "k_percent": 25.0,
      "bb_percent": 8.1,
      "woba": 0.324,
      "xwoba": 0.312,
      "barrel_percent": 10.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.1,
      "whiff_percent": 23.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 269,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
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      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.6818181818181818,
        "last_10": 0.3181818181818182
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      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
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      "player_id": "695549",
      "report_date": "20260925",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 8,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
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          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.2,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 21.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 32.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 111.0,
            "Pitches": 454.0
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          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 4.2,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 6.4,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 22.2,
            "Pitches": 90.8
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.125,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4125,
            "H_per_IP": 0.7875,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3375,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.2,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1875
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 8,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 40.2,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 35.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 43.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 172.0,
            "Pitches": 685.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.25,
            "R": 2.375,
            "H": 4.375,
            "BB": 1.75,
            "SO": 5.375,
            "HR": 0.875,
            "BF": 21.5,
            "Pitches": 85.625
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.2049,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44262,
            "H_per_IP": 0.86066,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34426,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.05738,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17213
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        },
        "season": {
          "games": 8,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 40.2,
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            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 35.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 43.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.25,
            "R": 2.375,
            "H": 4.375,
            "BB": 1.75,
            "SO": 5.375,
            "HR": 0.875,
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          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.2049,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44262,
            "H_per_IP": 0.86066,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34426,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.05738,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17213
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
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        "predicted_H": 4.623,
        "predicted_BB": 1.867,
        "predicted_SO": 5.641,
        "predicted_HR": 0.894,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.1127,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2318
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.407,
          "final": 2.1984,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.623,
          "final": 3.2787,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.867,
          "final": 2.4477,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "final": 5.3125,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
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          "final": 4.1127,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2318,
          "final": 1.2318,
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
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        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 40.2,
        "ER": 18,
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        "BB": 14,
        "SO": 43,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 3.9836065573770494,
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        "K9": 9.51639344262295,
        "HR9": 1.5491803278688525,
        "games_pitched": 8,
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        "dominant_form": false,
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      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 8,
        "error_prone": false
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      "games_count": 8,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-19T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.939018965986496,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_size": 8.0,
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          "prior_size": 5.0,
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "695549",
      "player_name": "Jackson Jobe",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "DET",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "material": false
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            {
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
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          "pitcher_id": "695549",
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          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
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          "metrics": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
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                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 88,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.62807063256204,
                "release_spin_rate": 2465.384813235495,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.6281,
              "release_spin_rate": 2465.3848,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1548,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.1058,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0325,
          "sample_weight": 0.588,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9972,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.005,
          "walk_factor": 0.9882,
          "homer_factor": 1.0204,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.012,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "695549",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9984,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9984,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9931,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.012,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0029,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 92,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 8 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260925_PIT@DET.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260925

20260925_STL@MIL

away

Michael McGreevy

True

5.1

4.2

-2

6/9

0/2

7/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.841463414634146,
      "WHIP": 1.25,
      "IP": 164.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 30,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.467,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.333,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.5664,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0481,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9423,
      "walk_factor": 0.954,
      "homer_factor": 1.0885,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 16.7,
      "bb_percent": 6.8,
      "woba": 0.316,
      "xwoba": 0.35,
      "barrel_percent": 9.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.0,
      "whiff_percent": 20.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 94,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "700241",
      "report_date": "20260925",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 30,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.2,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 29.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 18.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 119.0,
            "Pitches": 457.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.4,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 23.8,
            "Pitches": 91.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.4,
            "WHIP": 1.4625,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.6,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0875,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.375,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.675,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1125
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 49.2,
            "ER": 31.0,
            "R": 35.0,
            "H": 57.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 39.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 223.0,
            "Pitches": 905.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.1,
            "R": 3.5,
            "H": 5.7,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 3.9,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 22.3,
            "Pitches": 90.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.6174,
            "WHIP": 1.5302,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.62416,
            "H_per_IP": 1.14765,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38255,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.78523,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12081
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 30,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 164.0,
            "ER": 70.0,
            "R": 75.0,
            "H": 159.0,
            "BB": 46.0,
            "SO": 113.0,
            "HR": 21.0,
            "BF": 677.0,
            "Pitches": 2682.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.3333,
            "R": 2.5,
            "H": 5.3,
            "BB": 1.5333,
            "SO": 3.7667,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 22.5667,
            "Pitches": 89.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8415,
            "WHIP": 1.25,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42683,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96951,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28049,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.68902,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12805
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.957,
        "predicted_H": 5.603,
        "predicted_BB": 1.892,
        "predicted_SO": 3.914,
        "predicted_HR": 0.643,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.0859,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.432
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4104,
      "form_weight": 0.5896,
      "form_reliability": 0.8571,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.957,
          "final": 2.5643,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.603,
          "final": 5.7659,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.892,
          "final": 1.1156,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 3.914,
          "final": 5.1804,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.643,
          "final": 0.7895,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.0859,
          "final": 5.0859,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.432,
          "final": 1.432,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 49.2,
        "ER": 31,
        "H": 57,
        "BB": 19,
        "SO": 39,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 5.61744966442953,
        "WHIP": 1.530201342281879,
        "K9": 7.067114093959731,
        "HR9": 1.087248322147651,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-19T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.1309583982672748,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 30.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8571,
          "prior_weight": 0.1429
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "700241",
      "player_name": "Michael McGreevy",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "STL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
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              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
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        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
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            "delta": -0.2333,
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            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "STL",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 77,
        "losses": 82,
        "win_pct": 0.4843,
        "runs_scored": 710.0,
        "runs_allowed": 732.0,
        "run_differential": -22.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1384,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4654,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6038,
        "offense_index": 0.9979,
        "defense_index": 0.972,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": -13.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0654
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIL",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 100,
        "losses": 59,
        "win_pct": 0.6289,
        "runs_scored": 815.0,
        "runs_allowed": 608.0,
        "run_differential": 207.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.3019,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.1258,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8239,
        "offense_index": 1.1454,
        "defense_index": 1.1703,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.9,
          "run_differential": 11.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3396
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.405,
        "offense_edge": -0.0021,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1454,
        "defense_strength": -0.028,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1703,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9771,
        "run_prevention": 1.0463,
        "strikeout": 0.9762
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "700241",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "700241",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 631.0,
            "k_percent": 16.7,
            "bb_percent": 6.8,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.35,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 41.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.0662,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.6102,
            "whiff_percent": 20.2,
            "swing_percent": 44.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.5996,
            "command_and_miss": -0.4657,
            "regression_edge": -0.9714,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.1143,
            "barrel_edge": -0.4667,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.4429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.6857,
            "bb_edge": 0.575,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1553
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "700241",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 91,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 91,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.09044867462653,
              "release_spin_rate": 2200.553287077531,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 91,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.09044867462653,
                "release_spin_rate": 2200.553287077531,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.0904,
              "release_spin_rate": 2200.5533,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1553,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.1093,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.5664,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0481,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9423,
          "walk_factor": 0.954,
          "homer_factor": 1.0885,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.034,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "700241",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0481,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0481,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.954,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0885,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9423,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 93,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260925_STL@MIL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260925

20260925_STL@MIL

home

Robert Gasser

True

5.0

6.0

-2

3/1

0/1

4/9

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.006451612903226,
      "WHIP": 1.238709677419355,
      "IP": 103.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 20,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.158,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.933,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0877,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0075,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.98,
      "walk_factor": 0.968,
      "homer_factor": 0.989,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.3,
      "bb_percent": 7.5,
      "woba": 0.317,
      "xwoba": 0.322,
      "barrel_percent": 7.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.4,
      "whiff_percent": 22.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 187,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 20.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8,
        "prior_weight": 0.2
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "688107",
      "report_date": "20260925",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 20,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.1,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 6.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 109.0,
            "Pitches": 437.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.2,
            "H": 3.6,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 21.8,
            "Pitches": 87.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.7089,
            "WHIP": 1.1013,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.18987,
            "H_per_IP": 0.68354,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.41772,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.83544,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03797
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 52.0,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 46.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 46.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 224.0,
            "Pitches": 863.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.9,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 0.3,
            "BF": 22.4,
            "Pitches": 86.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1154,
            "WHIP": 1.2692,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.34615,
            "H_per_IP": 0.88462,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38462,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.88462,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.05769
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 20,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 103.1,
            "ER": 46.0,
            "R": 48.0,
            "H": 94.0,
            "BB": 34.0,
            "SO": 94.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 443.0,
            "Pitches": 1730.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.3,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 4.7,
            "BB": 1.7,
            "SO": 4.7,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 22.15,
            "Pitches": 86.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.0065,
            "WHIP": 1.2387,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44516,
            "H_per_IP": 0.90968,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.32903,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.90968,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13548
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.786,
        "predicted_H": 4.404,
        "predicted_BB": 2.034,
        "predicted_SO": 4.642,
        "predicted_HR": 0.428,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.0516,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2225
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4345,
      "form_weight": 0.5655,
      "form_reliability": 0.8,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 20.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8,
        "prior_weight": 0.2
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.786,
          "final": 2.3135,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.404,
          "final": 3.794,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.034,
          "final": 1.1502,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.642,
          "final": 4.3631,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.428,
          "final": 0.242,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.0516,
          "final": 3.0516,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2225,
          "final": 1.2225,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 52.0,
        "ER": 18,
        "H": 46,
        "BB": 20,
        "SO": 46,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 3.1153846153846154,
        "WHIP": 1.2692307692307692,
        "K9": 7.961538461538462,
        "HR9": 0.5192307692307693,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-19T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8429518159234443,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 20.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8,
          "prior_weight": 0.2
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "688107",
      "player_name": "Robert Gasser",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
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          {
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
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          }
        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIL",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 100,
        "losses": 59,
        "win_pct": 0.6289,
        "runs_scored": 815.0,
        "runs_allowed": 608.0,
        "run_differential": 207.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.3019,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.1258,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8239,
        "offense_index": 1.1454,
        "defense_index": 1.1703,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.9,
          "run_differential": 11.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3396
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "STL",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 77,
        "losses": 82,
        "win_pct": 0.4843,
        "runs_scored": 710.0,
        "runs_allowed": 732.0,
        "run_differential": -22.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1384,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4654,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6038,
        "offense_index": 0.9979,
        "defense_index": 0.972,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": -13.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0654
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.405,
        "offense_edge": 0.1454,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0021,
        "defense_strength": 0.1703,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.028,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0214,
        "run_prevention": 0.9624,
        "strikeout": 1.0123
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "688107",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "688107",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 414.0,
            "k_percent": 21.3,
            "bb_percent": 7.5,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.322,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 37.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 33.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 74.7052,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.1368,
            "whiff_percent": 22.2,
            "swing_percent": 49.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.0705,
            "command_and_miss": -0.105,
            "regression_edge": -0.1429,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.3143,
            "barrel_edge": -0.0667,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.6429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4,
            "bb_edge": 0.4,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0829
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "688107",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 81,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 81,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.38349307541424,
              "release_spin_rate": 2279.059113316552,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 81,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.38349307541424,
                "release_spin_rate": 2279.059113316552,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.3835,
              "release_spin_rate": 2279.0591,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0829,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.5921,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0877,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0075,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.98,
          "walk_factor": 0.968,
          "homer_factor": 0.989,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.005,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "688107",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0075,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0075,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.968,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.989,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.98,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 84,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260925_STL@MIL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260925

20260925_TB@PHI

away

Freddy Peralta

True

5.2

5.1

-1

-5

5/4

2/3

6/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.564154786150713,
      "WHIP": 1.3258655804480652,
      "IP": 163.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 31,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.28,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.733,
      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1418,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9879,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.004,
      "walk_factor": 0.988,
      "homer_factor": 0.9669,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.5,
      "bb_percent": 8.5,
      "woba": 0.325,
      "xwoba": 0.302,
      "barrel_percent": 5.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.5,
      "whiff_percent": 26.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 287,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "642547",
      "report_date": "20260925",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 31,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.2,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 14.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 107.0,
            "Pitches": 430.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 0.6,
            "R": 0.6,
            "H": 2.8,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 21.4,
            "Pitches": 86.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 0.9419,
            "WHIP": 0.6977,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.10465,
            "H_per_IP": 0.48837,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2093,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.80233,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03488
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 54.0,
            "ER": 22.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 43.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 42.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 216.0,
            "Pitches": 866.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.3,
            "H": 4.3,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 21.6,
            "Pitches": 86.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6667,
            "WHIP": 1.0556,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.40741,
            "H_per_IP": 0.7963,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25926,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.77778,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11111
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 31,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 163.2,
            "ER": 83.0,
            "R": 91.0,
            "H": 157.0,
            "BB": 60.0,
            "SO": 152.0,
            "HR": 23.0,
            "BF": 708.0,
            "Pitches": 2866.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.6774,
            "R": 2.9355,
            "H": 5.0645,
            "BB": 1.9355,
            "SO": 4.9032,
            "HR": 0.7419,
            "BF": 22.8387,
            "Pitches": 92.4516
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5642,
            "WHIP": 1.3259,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.50713,
            "H_per_IP": 0.95927,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3666,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.92872,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14053
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.773,
        "predicted_H": 4.028,
        "predicted_BB": 1.514,
        "predicted_SO": 4.602,
        "predicted_HR": 0.506,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.8972,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.006
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4087,
      "form_weight": 0.5913,
      "form_reliability": 0.8611,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.773,
          "final": 2.6831,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.028,
          "final": 4.4252,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.514,
          "final": 1.7126,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.602,
          "final": 4.7647,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.506,
          "final": 0.7079,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.8972,
          "final": 2.8972,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.006,
          "final": 1.006,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 54.0,
        "ER": 22,
        "H": 43,
        "BB": 14,
        "SO": 42,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 3.6666666666666665,
        "WHIP": 1.0555555555555556,
        "K9": 7.0,
        "HR9": 1.0,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-19T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8996291663507947,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 31.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8611,
          "prior_weight": 0.1389
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "642547",
      "player_name": "Freddy Peralta",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TB",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.2,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.2,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.2,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.2,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TB",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 96,
        "losses": 63,
        "win_pct": 0.6038,
        "runs_scored": 719.0,
        "runs_allowed": 642.0,
        "run_differential": 77.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.4843,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.522,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0377,
        "offense_index": 1.0105,
        "defense_index": 1.1083,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.9,
          "run_differential": 8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1828
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 87,
        "losses": 72,
        "win_pct": 0.5472,
        "runs_scored": 705.0,
        "runs_allowed": 681.0,
        "run_differential": 24.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1509,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.434,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.283,
        "offense_index": 0.9908,
        "defense_index": 1.0448,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1,
          "run_differential": -2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0587
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      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1241,
        "offense_edge": 0.0105,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0092,
        "defense_strength": 0.1083,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0448,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0086,
        "run_prevention": 0.9815,
        "strikeout": 1.0045
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "642547",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "642547",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 683.0,
            "k_percent": 21.5,
            "bb_percent": 8.5,
            "woba": 0.325,
            "xwoba": 0.302,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.202,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.4872,
            "whiff_percent": 26.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.1134,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0579,
            "regression_edge": 0.6571,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.2571,
            "barrel_edge": 0.2889,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.0571,
            "whiff_edge": 0.1714,
            "bb_edge": 0.15,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0308
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "642547",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 86,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 86,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.31293809090894,
              "release_spin_rate": 2298.363391166723,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 86,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.31293809090894,
                "release_spin_rate": 2298.363391166723,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.3129,
              "release_spin_rate": 2298.3634,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0308,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.2203,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1418,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9879,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.004,
          "walk_factor": 0.988,
          "homer_factor": 0.9669,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.023,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "642547",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9879,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9879,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.988,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9669,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.004,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 106,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -5; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 5 ER."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260925_TB@PHI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260925

20260925_TB@PHI

home

Cristopher Sánchez

True

6.1

7.0

-1

7/5

3/1

6/10

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.925,
      "WHIP": 1.215,
      "IP": 200.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 32,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.25,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.333,
      "last_start_IP": 6.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.4337,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9631,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0623,
      "walk_factor": 0.924,
      "homer_factor": 1.0018,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 26.6,
      "bb_percent": 5.3,
      "woba": 0.298,
      "xwoba": 0.285,
      "barrel_percent": 7.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.8,
      "whiff_percent": 31.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": null,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 32.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8649,
        "prior_weight": 0.1351
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "650911",
      "report_date": "20260925",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 32,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 31.2,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 31.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 27.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 129.0,
            "Pitches": 476.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 6.2,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 5.4,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 25.8,
            "Pitches": 95.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5474,
            "WHIP": 1.1684,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.50526,
            "H_per_IP": 0.97895,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.18947,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.85263,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12632
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 61.1,
            "ER": 23.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 60.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 64.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 252.0,
            "Pitches": 955.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.3,
            "R": 2.3,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 6.4,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 25.2,
            "Pitches": 95.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.375,
            "WHIP": 1.2391,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.375,
            "H_per_IP": 0.97826,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26087,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.04348,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09783
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 32,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 200.0,
            "ER": 65.0,
            "R": 71.0,
            "H": 199.0,
            "BB": 44.0,
            "SO": 221.0,
            "HR": 18.0,
            "BF": 830.0,
            "Pitches": 3058.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 2.0312,
            "R": 2.2188,
            "H": 6.2188,
            "BB": 1.375,
            "SO": 6.9062,
            "HR": 0.5625,
            "BF": 25.9375,
            "Pitches": 95.5625
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.925,
            "WHIP": 1.215,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.325,
            "H_per_IP": 0.995,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.22,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.105,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.715,
        "predicted_H": 6.122,
        "predicted_BB": 1.507,
        "predicted_SO": 6.017,
        "predicted_HR": 0.713,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.921,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.224
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4071,
      "form_weight": 0.5929,
      "form_reliability": 0.8649,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 32.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8649,
        "prior_weight": 0.1351
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.1,
          "form": 6.1,
          "final": 6.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.715,
          "final": 3.2381,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 6.122,
          "final": 6.4794,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.507,
          "final": 2.1148,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 6.017,
          "final": 3.9747,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.713,
          "final": 0.4228,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.921,
          "final": 3.921,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.224,
          "final": 1.224,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 61.1,
        "ER": 23,
        "H": 60,
        "BB": 16,
        "SO": 64,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 3.3750000000000004,
        "WHIP": 1.2391304347826089,
        "K9": 9.391304347826088,
        "HR9": 0.8804347826086957,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-20T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8714060383314711,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 7.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 1.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 32.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8649,
          "prior_weight": 0.1351
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.1,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 7,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "650911",
      "player_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PHI",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 1.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.3333,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0368,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 5.0,
              "percent_delta": 5.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 3,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 2,
            "better_metrics": 2,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 5.0,
              "percent_delta": 5.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.1,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.3333,
            "after": 6.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0368,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 5.0,
            "percent_delta": 5.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 3,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 2,
          "better_metrics": 2,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 5.0,
            "percent_delta": 5.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 87,
        "losses": 72,
        "win_pct": 0.5472,
        "runs_scored": 705.0,
        "runs_allowed": 681.0,
        "run_differential": 24.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1509,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.434,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.283,
        "offense_index": 0.9908,
        "defense_index": 1.0448,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1,
          "run_differential": -2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0587
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TB",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 96,
        "losses": 63,
        "win_pct": 0.6038,
        "runs_scored": 719.0,
        "runs_allowed": 642.0,
        "run_differential": 77.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.4843,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.522,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0377,
        "offense_index": 1.0105,
        "defense_index": 1.1083,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.9,
          "run_differential": 8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1828
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1241,
        "offense_edge": -0.0092,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0105,
        "defense_strength": 0.0448,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1083,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.996,
        "run_prevention": 1.0034,
        "strikeout": 0.9954
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "650911",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "650911",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 773.0,
            "k_percent": 26.6,
            "bb_percent": 5.3,
            "woba": 0.298,
            "xwoba": 0.285,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 41.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.1003,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.4801,
            "whiff_percent": 31.3,
            "swing_percent": 50.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.3323,
            "command_and_miss": 0.8007,
            "regression_edge": 0.3714,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.7429,
            "barrel_edge": -0.0222,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.5571,
            "whiff_edge": 0.9,
            "bb_edge": 0.95,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0288
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "650911",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 95,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 95,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.3783652742236,
              "release_spin_rate": 2082.1207290628663,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 95,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.3783652742236,
                "release_spin_rate": 2082.1207290628663,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.3784,
              "release_spin_rate": 2082.1207,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0288,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.2059,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.4337,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9631,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0623,
          "walk_factor": 0.924,
          "homer_factor": 1.0018,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.013,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "650911",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9631,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9631,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.924,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0018,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0623,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.1,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 29,
      "Pitches": 114,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260925_TB@PHI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260925

20260925_TEX@MIN

away

Jacob deGrom

True

5.2

4.0

-5

5/8

4/3

8/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.857142857142857,
      "WHIP": 1.096638655462185,
      "IP": 158.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 30,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.289,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.667,
      "last_start_IP": 4.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.4232,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.964,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0971,
      "walk_factor": 0.952,
      "homer_factor": 1.0293,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 30.4,
      "bb_percent": 6.7,
      "woba": 0.279,
      "xwoba": 0.284,
      "barrel_percent": 7.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 44.9,
      "whiff_percent": 33.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 64,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "594798",
      "report_date": "20260925",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 30,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.1,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 14.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 37.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 105.0,
            "Pitches": 441.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 2.8,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 7.4,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 21.0,
            "Pitches": 88.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.2235,
            "WHIP": 0.7059,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.24706,
            "H_per_IP": 0.49412,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21176,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.30588,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10588
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 48.1,
            "ER": 23.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 37.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 64.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 199.0,
            "Pitches": 854.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.3,
            "R": 2.3,
            "H": 3.7,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 6.4,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 19.9,
            "Pitches": 85.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2828,
            "WHIP": 1.1586,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.47586,
            "H_per_IP": 0.76552,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3931,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.32414,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08276
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 30,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 158.2,
            "ER": 68.0,
            "R": 68.0,
            "H": 131.0,
            "BB": 43.0,
            "SO": 196.0,
            "HR": 20.0,
            "BF": 645.0,
            "Pitches": 2646.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.2667,
            "R": 2.2667,
            "H": 4.3667,
            "BB": 1.4333,
            "SO": 6.5333,
            "HR": 0.6667,
            "BF": 21.5,
            "Pitches": 88.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8571,
            "WHIP": 1.0966,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "H_per_IP": 0.82563,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.27101,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.23529,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12605
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.043,
        "predicted_H": 3.729,
        "predicted_BB": 1.593,
        "predicted_SO": 6.618,
        "predicted_HR": 0.576,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.4631,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0024
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4104,
      "form_weight": 0.5896,
      "form_reliability": 0.8571,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.043,
          "final": 2.4357,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.729,
          "final": 4.2506,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.593,
          "final": 2.5808,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 6.618,
          "final": 7.1851,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.576,
          "final": 0.75,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.4631,
          "final": 3.4631,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0024,
          "final": 1.0024,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 48.1,
        "ER": 23,
        "H": 37,
        "BB": 19,
        "SO": 64,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 4.282758620689655,
        "WHIP": 1.1586206896551723,
        "K9": 11.917241379310344,
        "HR9": 0.7448275862068965,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-20T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9715161395308712,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 8.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 30.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8571,
          "prior_weight": 0.1429
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 4,
          "predicted_SO": 8,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "594798",
      "player_name": "Jacob deGrom",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TEX",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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        ],
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TEX",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 79,
        "losses": 80,
        "win_pct": 0.4969,
        "runs_scored": 661.0,
        "runs_allowed": 701.0,
        "run_differential": -40.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2516,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1572,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4088,
        "offense_index": 0.9295,
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        "recent": {
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          "wins": 6,
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          "win_pct": 0.6,
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          "run_differential": 5.0
        },
        "available": true,
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      },
      "opponent": {
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        "wins": 75,
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        "win_pct": 0.4717,
        "runs_scored": 721.0,
        "runs_allowed": 785.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4025,
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          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": -2.0
        },
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        "quality_score": -0.0736
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.075,
        "offense_edge": -0.0705,
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        "defense_strength": 0.0144,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0941,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0029,
        "run_prevention": 0.997,
        "strikeout": 1.0011
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "594798",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "594798",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 597.0,
            "k_percent": 30.4,
            "bb_percent": 6.7,
            "woba": 0.279,
            "xwoba": 0.284,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 37.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 44.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.4112,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.6142,
            "whiff_percent": 33.6,
            "swing_percent": 51.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.2491,
            "command_and_miss": 1.09,
            "regression_edge": -0.1429,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.7714,
            "barrel_edge": -0.1556,
            "hard_hit_edge": -1.0,
            "whiff_edge": 1.2286,
            "bb_edge": 0.6,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1824
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "594798",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 88,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 88,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 93.12098050726556,
              "release_spin_rate": 2431.696781055929,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 88,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 93.12098050726556,
                "release_spin_rate": 2431.696781055929,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 93.121,
              "release_spin_rate": 2431.6968,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
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            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1824,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": 1.3029,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.4232,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.964,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0971,
          "walk_factor": 0.952,
          "homer_factor": 1.0293,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.005,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "594798",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
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            "factor": 0.964,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
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            "factor": 0.964,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.952,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
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            "factor": 1.0293,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0971,
            "adjusted": 8
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 27,
      "Pitches": 107,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +5; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260925_TEX@MIN.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260925

20260925_TEX@MIN

home

Joe Ryan

True

5.0

6.0

-2

4/4

3/1

5/8

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "IP": 138.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.333,
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      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.152,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9871,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0257,
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      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 25.7,
      "bb_percent": 5.1,
      "woba": 0.312,
      "xwoba": 0.298,
      "barrel_percent": 10.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 40.6,
      "whiff_percent": 25.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 104,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
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        "last_10": 0.35,
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      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
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        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "657746",
      "report_date": "20260925",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.1,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 32.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 20.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 116.0,
            "Pitches": 441.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.6,
            "H": 6.4,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 23.2,
            "Pitches": 88.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.9178,
            "WHIP": 1.5205,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.65753,
            "H_per_IP": 1.31507,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.20548,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.82192,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.20548
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 51.1,
            "ER": 30.0,
            "R": 38.0,
            "H": 64.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 52.0,
            "HR": 13.0,
            "BF": 236.0,
            "Pitches": 908.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.8,
            "H": 6.4,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 1.3,
            "BF": 23.6,
            "Pitches": 90.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.2597,
            "WHIP": 1.4805,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.58442,
            "H_per_IP": 1.24675,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23377,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.01299,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.25325
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 138.2,
            "ER": 59.0,
            "R": 72.0,
            "H": 133.0,
            "BB": 30.0,
            "SO": 151.0,
            "HR": 21.0,
            "BF": 588.0,
            "Pitches": 2338.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.2692,
            "R": 2.7692,
            "H": 5.1154,
            "BB": 1.1538,
            "SO": 5.8077,
            "HR": 0.8077,
            "BF": 22.6154,
            "Pitches": 89.9231
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8293,
            "WHIP": 1.1755,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42548,
            "H_per_IP": 0.95913,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21635,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.08894,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15144
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.901,
        "predicted_H": 5.976,
        "predicted_BB": 1.231,
        "predicted_SO": 4.759,
        "predicted_HR": 1.018,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.1642,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4253
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4181,
      "form_weight": 0.5819,
      "form_reliability": 0.8387,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.901,
          "final": 3.3605,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.976,
          "final": 5.1497,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.231,
          "final": 1.9707,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 4.759,
          "final": 4.8598,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.018,
          "final": 1.0105,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.1642,
          "final": 5.1642,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4253,
          "final": 1.4253,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 51.1,
        "ER": 30,
        "H": 64,
        "BB": 12,
        "SO": 52,
        "HR": 13,
        "ERA": 5.25974025974026,
        "WHIP": 1.4805194805194806,
        "K9": 9.116883116883118,
        "HR9": 2.2792207792207795,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-19T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.089474043695672,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 26.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8387,
          "prior_weight": 0.1613
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "657746",
      "player_name": "Joe Ryan",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIN",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIN",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 84,
        "win_pct": 0.4717,
        "runs_scored": 721.0,
        "runs_allowed": 785.0,
        "run_differential": -64.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4025,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5346,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9371,
        "offense_index": 1.0139,
        "defense_index": 0.9059,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": -2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0736
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TEX",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 79,
        "losses": 80,
        "win_pct": 0.4969,
        "runs_scored": 661.0,
        "runs_allowed": 701.0,
        "run_differential": -40.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2516,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1572,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4088,
        "offense_index": 0.9295,
        "defense_index": 1.0144,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": 5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0014
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.075,
        "offense_edge": 0.0139,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0705,
        "defense_strength": -0.0941,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0144,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.997,
        "run_prevention": 1.0019,
        "strikeout": 1.0034
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "657746",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "657746",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 542.0,
            "k_percent": 25.7,
            "bb_percent": 5.1,
            "woba": 0.312,
            "xwoba": 0.298,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 10.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 40.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.4652,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.3183,
            "whiff_percent": 25.8,
            "swing_percent": 50.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.0113,
            "command_and_miss": 0.4779,
            "regression_edge": 0.4,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.3714,
            "barrel_edge": -0.6444,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.3857,
            "whiff_edge": 0.1143,
            "bb_edge": 1.0,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0731
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "657746",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 84,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 84,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.55760817104789,
              "release_spin_rate": 2384.6802222056413,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 84,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.55760817104789,
                "release_spin_rate": 2384.6802222056413,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.5576,
              "release_spin_rate": 2384.6802,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0731,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.5224,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.152,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9871,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0257,
          "walk_factor": 0.92,
          "homer_factor": 1.0558,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.014,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "657746",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9871,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9871,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.92,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0558,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0257,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 99,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260925_TEX@MIN.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260926

20260926_ARI@SD

away

Taylor Clarke

True

6.0

0.2

-16

2/3

3/0

6/0

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.598930481283422,
      "WHIP": 0.8823529411764706,
      "IP": 62.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 62,
      "role_avg_IP": 1.005,
      "recent_avg_IP": 1.067,
      "last_start_IP": 0.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1617,
      "sample_weight": 0.912,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0137,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9547,
      "walk_factor": 0.9252,
      "homer_factor": 1.0196,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 16.0,
      "bb_percent": 5.0,
      "woba": 0.264,
      "xwoba": 0.322,
      "barrel_percent": 9.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.1,
      "whiff_percent": 22.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 151,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 6.0,
      "season_IP": 62.1,
      "season_ERA": 2.599,
      "season_WHIP": 0.882,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 12.781,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7188,
        "prior_weight": 0.2812
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "664199",
      "report_date": "20260926",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 62,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 20.0,
            "Pitches": 76.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.6,
            "R": 0.6,
            "H": 0.8,
            "BB": 0.2,
            "SO": 1.0,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 4.0,
            "Pitches": 15.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.0625,
            "WHIP": 0.9375,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5625,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.1875,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.9375,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.375
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 10.0,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 5.0,
            "H": 8.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 9.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 38.0,
            "Pitches": 143.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.5,
            "R": 0.5,
            "H": 0.8,
            "BB": 0.2,
            "SO": 0.9,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 3.8,
            "Pitches": 14.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5,
            "WHIP": 1.0,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.9,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.2
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 62,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 62.1,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 44.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 37.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 238.0,
            "Pitches": 883.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.2903,
            "R": 0.3387,
            "H": 0.7097,
            "BB": 0.1774,
            "SO": 0.5968,
            "HR": 0.0968,
            "BF": 3.8387,
            "Pitches": 14.2419
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.5989,
            "WHIP": 0.8824,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.28877,
            "H_per_IP": 0.70588,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.17647,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.59358,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09626
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 2.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.188,
        "predicted_H": 1.977,
        "predicted_BB": 0.585,
        "predicted_SO": 2.113,
        "predicted_HR": 0.547,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.443,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0649
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4688,
      "form_weight": 0.5312,
      "form_reliability": 0.7188,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 12.781,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7188,
        "prior_weight": 0.2812
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 2.1,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.188,
          "final": 1.0999,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.977,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "form": 0.585,
          "final": 1.7172,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
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          "final": 3.9353,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.547,
          "final": 0.2906,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.443,
          "final": 4.443,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0649,
          "final": 1.0649,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 10.0,
        "ER": 5,
        "H": 8,
        "BB": 2,
        "SO": 9,
        "HR": 2,
        "ERA": 4.5,
        "WHIP": 1.0,
        "K9": 8.1,
        "HR9": 1.8,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-01T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9970322928826013,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 12.781,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7188,
          "prior_weight": 0.2812
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 2,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "664199",
      "player_name": "Taylor Clarke",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ARI",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "percent_delta": null,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
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            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "ARI",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 86,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.5375,
        "runs_scored": 728.0,
        "runs_allowed": 711.0,
        "run_differential": 17.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1062,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.55,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4437,
        "offense_index": 1.0144,
        "defense_index": 1.0093,
        "current_streak": "W6",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8,
          "run_differential": 15.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1149
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SD",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 89,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.5563,
        "runs_scored": 703.0,
        "runs_allowed": 670.0,
        "run_differential": 33.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2062,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3937,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1875,
        "offense_index": 0.9796,
        "defense_index": 1.0711,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6,
          "run_differential": 10.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1431
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0282,
        "offense_edge": 0.0144,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0204,
        "defense_strength": 0.0093,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0711,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0,
        "run_prevention": 0.9972,
        "strikeout": 1.0008
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "664199",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "664199",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 228.0,
            "k_percent": 16.0,
            "bb_percent": 5.0,
            "woba": 0.264,
            "xwoba": 0.322,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 34.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.0809,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.5635,
            "whiff_percent": 22.5,
            "swing_percent": 49.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8982,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.1127,
            "command_and_miss": -0.3157,
            "regression_edge": -1.6571,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.3143,
            "barrel_edge": -0.4222,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.5429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3857,
            "bb_edge": 1.025,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0927
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "664199",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 15,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 15,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 91.51984764546245,
              "release_spin_rate": 2087.327565588381,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 15,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 91.51984764546245,
                "release_spin_rate": 2087.327565588381,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.5198,
              "release_spin_rate": 2087.3276,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0927,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.6623,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1617,
          "sample_weight": 0.912,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0137,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9547,
          "walk_factor": 0.9252,
          "homer_factor": 1.0196,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.058,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "664199",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0125,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0125,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9318,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0179,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9587,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 103,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -16 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260926_ARI@SD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260926

20260926_ARI@SD

home

Walker Buehler

True

4.2

3.2

-3

-2

5/5

2/1

7/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.56,
      "WHIP": 1.34,
      "IP": 150.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 31,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.839,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.733,
      "last_start_IP": 6.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1552,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0132,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9571,
      "walk_factor": 0.994,
      "homer_factor": 1.0293,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 20.2,
      "bb_percent": 8.8,
      "woba": 0.327,
      "xwoba": 0.315,
      "barrel_percent": 8.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.7,
      "whiff_percent": 19.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 189,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "621111",
      "report_date": "20260926",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 31,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.2,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 23.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 20.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 95.0,
            "Pitches": 388.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 19.0,
            "Pitches": 77.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.1831,
            "WHIP": 1.2676,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46479,
            "H_per_IP": 0.97183,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.29577,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.84507,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.25352
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 50.0,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 46.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 37.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 199.0,
            "Pitches": 813.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.9,
            "R": 1.9,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 3.7,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 19.9,
            "Pitches": 81.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.42,
            "WHIP": 1.2,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.38,
            "H_per_IP": 0.92,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.74,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 31,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 150.0,
            "ER": 76.0,
            "R": 77.0,
            "H": 145.0,
            "BB": 56.0,
            "SO": 128.0,
            "HR": 21.0,
            "BF": 633.0,
            "Pitches": 2535.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.4516,
            "R": 2.4839,
            "H": 4.6774,
            "BB": 1.8065,
            "SO": 4.129,
            "HR": 0.6774,
            "BF": 20.4194,
            "Pitches": 81.7742
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.56,
            "WHIP": 1.34,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.50667,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96667,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37333,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.85333,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.187,
        "predicted_H": 4.617,
        "predicted_BB": 1.525,
        "predicted_SO": 3.992,
        "predicted_HR": 0.923,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.079,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2729
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4087,
      "form_weight": 0.5913,
      "form_reliability": 0.8611,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 2.187,
          "final": 3.3366,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.617,
          "final": 4.7735,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.525,
          "final": 1.7191,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.992,
          "final": 4.404,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.923,
          "final": 0.5458,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.079,
          "final": 4.079,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2729,
          "final": 1.2729,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 50.0,
        "ER": 19,
        "H": 46,
        "BB": 14,
        "SO": 37,
        "HR": 8,
        "ERA": 3.4199999999999995,
        "WHIP": 1.1999999999999997,
        "K9": 6.659999999999999,
        "HR9": 1.4399999999999997,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-20T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8745925292968749,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 5.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 31.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8611,
          "prior_weight": 0.1389
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "621111",
      "player_name": "Walker Buehler",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_R": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.4,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.4,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.4,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.4,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SD",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 89,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.5563,
        "runs_scored": 703.0,
        "runs_allowed": 670.0,
        "run_differential": 33.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2062,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3937,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1875,
        "offense_index": 0.9796,
        "defense_index": 1.0711,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6,
          "run_differential": 10.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1431
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "ARI",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 86,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.5375,
        "runs_scored": 728.0,
        "runs_allowed": 711.0,
        "run_differential": 17.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1062,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.55,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4437,
        "offense_index": 1.0144,
        "defense_index": 1.0093,
        "current_streak": "W6",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8,
          "run_differential": 15.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1149
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0282,
        "offense_edge": -0.0204,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0144,
        "defense_strength": 0.0711,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0093,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0027,
        "run_prevention": 0.9938,
        "strikeout": 0.9997
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "621111",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "621111",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 583.0,
            "k_percent": 20.2,
            "bb_percent": 8.8,
            "woba": 0.327,
            "xwoba": 0.315,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.0476,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.091,
            "whiff_percent": 19.5,
            "swing_percent": 45.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8982,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1591,
            "command_and_miss": -0.3857,
            "regression_edge": 0.3429,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.1143,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2667,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.8143,
            "bb_edge": 0.075,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0012
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "621111",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 73,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 73,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.84218390169383,
              "release_spin_rate": 2199.080983688629,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 73,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.84218390169383,
                "release_spin_rate": 2199.080983688629,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.8422,
              "release_spin_rate": 2199.081,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0012,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.0088,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1552,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0132,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9571,
          "walk_factor": 0.994,
          "homer_factor": 1.0293,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.012,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "621111",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0132,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0132,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.994,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0293,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9571,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 94,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260926_ARI@SD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260926

20260926_ATL@MIA

away

Brent Suter

True

5.0

3.0

-6

-4

4/1

3/0

3/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.477272727272727,
      "WHIP": 1.25,
      "IP": 88.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 53,
      "role_avg_IP": 1.889,
      "recent_avg_IP": 1.889,
      "last_start_IP": 2.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1037,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
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    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 235,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.0,
      "season_IP": 88.0,
      "season_ERA": 3.477,
      "season_WHIP": 1.25,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
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        "season": 0.2
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      "effective_weights": {
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        "season": 0.2
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      "shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 18.044,
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        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.783,
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "608718",
      "report_date": "20260926",
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      "rows_used": 53,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
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          },
          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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        },
        "last_10": {
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          "totals": {
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          },
          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.20339,
            "H_per_IP": 0.86441,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30508,
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        },
        "season": {
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          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.38636,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96591,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28409,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.85227,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10227
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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        "predicted_BB": 0.732,
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    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4417,
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      "form_reliability": 0.783,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
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        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 18.044,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.783,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 0.67,
          "final": 2.1408,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "form": 2.017,
          "final": 2.8929,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "form": 0.732,
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        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 2.123,
          "final": 2.5104,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 0.294,
          "final": 0.1641,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.4297,
          "final": 2.4297,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
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          "form": 1.108,
          "final": 1.108,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
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        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 19.2,
        "ER": 4,
        "H": 17,
        "BB": 6,
        "SO": 16,
        "HR": 2,
        "ERA": 1.8305084745762714,
        "WHIP": 1.169491525423729,
        "K9": 7.322033898305086,
        "HR9": 0.9152542372881357,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 2,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
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      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-23T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.8001610611478487,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
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        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
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          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_size": 18.044,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.783,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "608718",
      "player_name": "Brent Suter",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ATL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          {
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          {
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          {
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        ],
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "ATL",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 93,
        "losses": 67,
        "win_pct": 0.5813,
        "runs_scored": 731.0,
        "runs_allowed": 618.0,
        "run_differential": 113.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.7063,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5687,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8625,
        "offense_index": 1.0187,
        "defense_index": 1.1611,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1,
          "run_differential": -3.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1557
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIA",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 79,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.4938,
        "runs_scored": 707.0,
        "runs_allowed": 701.0,
        "run_differential": 6.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0375,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4188,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3812,
        "offense_index": 0.9853,
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        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1,
          "run_differential": 0.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0007
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1564,
        "offense_edge": 0.0187,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0147,
        "defense_strength": 0.1611,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0236,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0117,
        "run_prevention": 0.9737,
        "strikeout": 1.0059
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "608718",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "608718",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 354.0,
            "k_percent": 20.4,
            "bb_percent": 7.1,
            "woba": 0.311,
            "xwoba": 0.307,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 30.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.0643,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.0597,
            "whiff_percent": 23.2,
            "swing_percent": 46.6
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8982,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.2525,
            "command_and_miss": -0.1029,
            "regression_edge": 0.1143,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.1143,
            "barrel_edge": 0.2444,
            "hard_hit_edge": 1.0286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2857,
            "bb_edge": 0.5,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.28
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "608718",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 31,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 31,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 83.683563781104,
              "release_spin_rate": 1995.2177753340202,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 31,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 83.683563781104,
                "release_spin_rate": 1995.2177753340202,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 83.6836,
              "release_spin_rate": 1995.2178,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.28,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -2.0,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1037,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9912,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9794,
          "walk_factor": 0.96,
          "homer_factor": 0.9359,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.004,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "608718",
            "espn_rank": null
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9912,
            "adjusted": 2
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9912,
            "adjusted": 4
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.96,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9359,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9794,
            "adjusted": 3
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 98,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
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  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -6 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 4 ER."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260926_ATL@MIA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260926

20260926_ATL@MIA

home

Jack Ralston

True

5.0

1.1

-11

5/3

0/1

5/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.5,
      "WHIP": 1.25,
      "IP": 16.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 15,
      "role_avg_IP": 1.067,
      "recent_avg_IP": 1.133,
      "last_start_IP": 0.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0458,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0039,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9907,
      "walk_factor": 1.0225,
      "homer_factor": 1.0409,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 24.6,
      "bb_percent": 11.6,
      "woba": 0.329,
      "xwoba": 0.315,
      "barrel_percent": 11.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.5,
      "whiff_percent": 19.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 388,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 3.281,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.3962,
        "prior_weight": 0.6038
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "667652",
      "report_date": "20260926",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 15,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 8.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 26.0,
            "Pitches": 103.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.8,
            "R": 0.8,
            "H": 1.0,
            "BB": 0.6,
            "SO": 1.6,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 5.2,
            "Pitches": 20.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.3529,
            "WHIP": 1.4118,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.70588,
            "H_per_IP": 0.88235,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.52941,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.41176,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.52941
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 10.0,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 8.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 13.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 47.0,
            "Pitches": 191.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.7,
            "R": 0.7,
            "H": 0.8,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 1.3,
            "HR": 0.3,
            "BF": 4.7,
            "Pitches": 19.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.3,
            "WHIP": 1.6,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.7,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.8,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.3,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.3
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 15,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 16.0,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 12.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 17.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 69.0,
            "Pitches": 278.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.5333,
            "R": 0.5333,
            "H": 0.8,
            "BB": 0.5333,
            "SO": 1.1333,
            "HR": 0.2667,
            "BF": 4.6,
            "Pitches": 18.5333
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5,
            "WHIP": 1.25,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.5,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0625,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.25
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 2.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.61,
        "predicted_H": 2.59,
        "predicted_BB": 1.333,
        "predicted_SO": 3.04,
        "predicted_HR": 0.69,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.1537,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3955
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.6051,
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      "form_reliability": 0.3962,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.3962,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 2.2,
          "final": 3.1,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.61,
          "final": 2.4511,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "form": 2.59,
          "final": 4.0483,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "form": 1.333,
          "final": 0.5264,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 3.04,
          "final": 4.226,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 0.69,
          "final": 1.4827,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
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          "final": 5.1537,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3955,
          "final": 1.3955,
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
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        "ER": 7,
        "H": 8,
        "BB": 8,
        "SO": 13,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 6.3,
        "WHIP": 1.6,
        "K9": 11.7,
        "HR9": 2.7,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-24T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0694968924919763,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 3.281,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.3962,
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 2
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "667652",
      "player_name": "Jack Ralston",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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        "profile": {
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          "pitcher_id": "667652",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 19,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 85.04813955680808,
                "release_spin_rate": 1401.1758449434726,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 85.0481,
              "release_spin_rate": 1401.1758,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.2697,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.9264,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0458,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0039,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9907,
          "walk_factor": 1.0225,
          "homer_factor": 1.0409,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.014,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "667652",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0018,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0018,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0101,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0184,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9958,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 82,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -11 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260926_ATL@MIA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260926

20260926_CIN@TOR

away

Rhett Lowder

True

4.0

6.0

-4

6/3

1/2

2/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 6.007853403141361,
      "WHIP": 1.5549738219895288,
      "IP": 127.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.813,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.067,
      "last_start_IP": 3.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.6685,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0568,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9383,
      "walk_factor": 1.004,
      "homer_factor": 1.0938,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 17.4,
      "bb_percent": 9.3,
      "woba": 0.354,
      "xwoba": 0.355,
      "barrel_percent": 10.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.0,
      "whiff_percent": 19.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 750,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "695076",
      "report_date": "20260926",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 20.1,
            "ER": 24.0,
            "R": 25.0,
            "H": 30.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 18.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 103.0,
            "Pitches": 423.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 4.8,
            "R": 5.0,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 20.6,
            "Pitches": 84.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 10.623,
            "WHIP": 2.0164,
            "ER_per_IP": 1.18033,
            "H_per_IP": 1.47541,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.54098,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.88525,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14754
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 50.1,
            "ER": 37.0,
            "R": 39.0,
            "H": 60.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 36.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 228.0,
            "Pitches": 893.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.7,
            "R": 3.9,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 1.7,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 0.9,
            "BF": 22.8,
            "Pitches": 89.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.6159,
            "WHIP": 1.5298,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.7351,
            "H_per_IP": 1.19205,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33775,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.71523,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17881
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 28,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 127.1,
            "ER": 85.0,
            "R": 88.0,
            "H": 144.0,
            "BB": 54.0,
            "SO": 101.0,
            "HR": 18.0,
            "BF": 581.0,
            "Pitches": 2217.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.0357,
            "R": 3.1429,
            "H": 5.1429,
            "BB": 1.9286,
            "SO": 3.6071,
            "HR": 0.6429,
            "BF": 20.75,
            "Pitches": 79.1786
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.0079,
            "WHIP": 1.555,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.66754,
            "H_per_IP": 1.13089,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42408,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.79319,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14136
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.1,
        "predicted_ER": 3.836,
        "predicted_H": 5.612,
        "predicted_BB": 1.946,
        "predicted_SO": 3.688,
        "predicted_HR": 0.696,
        "predicted_ERA": 7.7407,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.6946
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.414,
      "form_weight": 0.586,
      "form_reliability": 0.8485,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.1,
          "form": 4.1,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.836,
          "final": 3.4899,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.612,
          "final": 5.3586,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.946,
          "final": 1.5543,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 3.688,
          "final": 2.9892,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.696,
          "final": 0.8219,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 7.7407,
          "final": 7.7407,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.6946,
          "final": 1.6946,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 50.1,
        "ER": 37,
        "H": 60,
        "BB": 17,
        "SO": 36,
        "HR": 9,
        "ERA": 6.615894039735099,
        "WHIP": 1.529801324503311,
        "K9": 6.437086092715232,
        "HR9": 1.609271523178808,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-20T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.2423756418796563,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 28.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8485,
          "prior_weight": 0.1515
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 2,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_quality_floor",
        "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4,
          "predicted_H": 6,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 2,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "695076",
      "player_name": "Rhett Lowder",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CIN",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": -0.3333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0769,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": -0.3333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0769,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "starter_quality_floor",
          "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.3333,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.2,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 2,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 2,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.3333,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 4,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.0,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.3333,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.2,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.3333,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": -0.3333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0769,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 3,
          "boosted_metrics": 2,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 3,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.3333,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.3333,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": -0.3333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0769,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CIN",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 86,
        "win_pct": 0.4625,
        "runs_scored": 660.0,
        "runs_allowed": 820.0,
        "run_differential": -160.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.0,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.125,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.125,
        "offense_index": 0.9197,
        "defense_index": 0.8752,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": -12.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1895
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TOR",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 78,
        "losses": 82,
        "win_pct": 0.4875,
        "runs_scored": 642.0,
        "runs_allowed": 688.0,
        "run_differential": -46.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2875,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0125,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
        "offense_index": 0.8946,
        "defense_index": 1.0431,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
          "run_differential": -15.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1159
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0736,
        "offense_edge": -0.0803,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.1054,
        "defense_strength": -0.1248,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0431,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9975,
        "run_prevention": 0.9993,
        "strikeout": 1.0062
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "695076",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "695076",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 530.0,
            "k_percent": 17.4,
            "bb_percent": 9.3,
            "woba": 0.354,
            "xwoba": 0.355,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 37.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 10.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 39.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.257,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.3528,
            "whiff_percent": 19.0,
            "swing_percent": 44.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8982,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.8986,
            "command_and_miss": -0.6157,
            "regression_edge": -0.0286,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.2571,
            "barrel_edge": -0.6222,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1571,
            "whiff_edge": -0.8857,
            "bb_edge": -0.05,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0296
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "695076",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 91,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 91,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.33470320650996,
              "release_spin_rate": 2351.7989851419666,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 91,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.33470320650996,
                "release_spin_rate": 2351.7989851419666,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.3347,
              "release_spin_rate": 2351.799,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0296,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.2118,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.6685,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0568,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9383,
          "walk_factor": 1.004,
          "homer_factor": 1.0938,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.001,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "695076",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0568,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0568,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.004,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0938,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9383,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 2,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 72,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by +6 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 4 ER."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260926_CIN@TOR.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260926

20260926_CIN@TOR

home

Trey Yesavage

True

5.0

2.0

-9

-2

4/2

2/1

4/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.6689895470383274,
      "WHIP": 1.1289198606271778,
      "IP": 95.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 19,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.035,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.133,
      "last_start_IP": 2.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.3242,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9724,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0389,
      "walk_factor": 1.052,
      "homer_factor": 0.9398,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.9,
      "bb_percent": 11.7,
      "woba": 0.28,
      "xwoba": 0.284,
      "barrel_percent": 6.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.9,
      "whiff_percent": 30.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 85,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 19.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7917,
        "prior_weight": 0.2083
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "702056",
      "report_date": "20260926",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 19,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 20.2,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 14.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 25.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 82.0,
            "Pitches": 352.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 2.8,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 16.4,
            "Pitches": 70.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4839,
            "WHIP": 1.0161,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3871,
            "H_per_IP": 0.67742,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33871,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.20968,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.19355
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 48.0,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 27.0,
            "BB": 21.0,
            "SO": 47.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 195.0,
            "Pitches": 801.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.9,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 2.7,
            "BB": 2.1,
            "SO": 4.7,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 19.5,
            "Pitches": 80.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.5625,
            "WHIP": 1.0,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.39583,
            "H_per_IP": 0.5625,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.4375,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.97917,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16667
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 19,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 95.2,
            "ER": 39.0,
            "R": 40.0,
            "H": 62.0,
            "BB": 46.0,
            "SO": 94.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 393.0,
            "Pitches": 1589.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.0526,
            "R": 2.1053,
            "H": 3.2632,
            "BB": 2.4211,
            "SO": 4.9474,
            "HR": 0.5789,
            "BF": 20.6842,
            "Pitches": 83.6316
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.669,
            "WHIP": 1.1289,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.40767,
            "H_per_IP": 0.64808,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.48084,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.98258,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11498
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.908,
        "predicted_H": 3.207,
        "predicted_BB": 1.807,
        "predicted_SO": 4.792,
        "predicted_HR": 0.748,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.7721,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1017
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.438,
      "form_weight": 0.562,
      "form_reliability": 0.7917,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 19.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7917,
        "prior_weight": 0.2083
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.908,
          "final": 2.3863,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.207,
          "final": 3.5543,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.807,
          "final": 1.8915,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.792,
          "final": 4.0071,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.748,
          "final": 0.8584,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.7721,
          "final": 3.7721,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1017,
          "final": 1.1017,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 48.0,
        "ER": 19,
        "H": 27,
        "BB": 21,
        "SO": 47,
        "HR": 8,
        "ERA": 3.5625,
        "WHIP": 1.0,
        "K9": 8.8125,
        "HR9": 1.5,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-21T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.885623779296875,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 19.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7917,
          "prior_weight": 0.2083
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "702056",
      "player_name": "Trey Yesavage",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TOR",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.3333,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.3333,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.3333,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.3333,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TOR",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 78,
        "losses": 82,
        "win_pct": 0.4875,
        "runs_scored": 642.0,
        "runs_allowed": 688.0,
        "run_differential": -46.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2875,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0125,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
        "offense_index": 0.8946,
        "defense_index": 1.0431,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
          "run_differential": -15.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1159
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CIN",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 86,
        "win_pct": 0.4625,
        "runs_scored": 660.0,
        "runs_allowed": 820.0,
        "run_differential": -160.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.0,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.125,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.125,
        "offense_index": 0.9197,
        "defense_index": 0.8752,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": -12.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1895
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0736,
        "offense_edge": -0.1054,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0803,
        "defense_strength": 0.0431,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.1248,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0074,
        "run_prevention": 0.9792,
        "strikeout": 1.0086
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "702056",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "702056",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 363.0,
            "k_percent": 23.9,
            "bb_percent": 11.7,
            "woba": 0.28,
            "xwoba": 0.284,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 33.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.0872,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.3361,
            "whiff_percent": 30.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8982,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.4934,
            "command_and_miss": 0.2371,
            "regression_edge": -0.1143,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.7714,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1778,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.5714,
            "whiff_edge": 0.7,
            "bb_edge": -0.65,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0299
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "702056",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 74,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 74,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.33004145791904,
              "release_spin_rate": 2011.7222825919243,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 74,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.33004145791904,
                "release_spin_rate": 2011.7222825919243,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.33,
              "release_spin_rate": 2011.7223,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0299,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.2136,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.3242,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9724,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0389,
          "walk_factor": 1.052,
          "homer_factor": 0.9398,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.004,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "702056",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9724,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9724,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.052,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9398,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0389,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 95,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -9 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260926_CIN@TOR.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260926

20260926_CLE@KC

away

Tanner Bibee

True

5.1

6.0

2/7

0/1

6/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 4.351648351648351,
      "WHIP": 1.2197802197802199,
      "IP": 182.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 32,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.688,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.133,
      "last_start_IP": 4.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.171,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0145,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9714,
      "walk_factor": 0.962,
      "homer_factor": 1.0323,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.8,
      "bb_percent": 7.2,
      "woba": 0.315,
      "xwoba": 0.318,
      "barrel_percent": 8.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.4,
      "whiff_percent": 23.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 108,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 32.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8649,
        "prior_weight": 0.1351
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "676440",
      "report_date": "20260926",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 32,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.2,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 33.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 19.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 118.0,
            "Pitches": 435.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.8,
            "R": 3.8,
            "H": 6.6,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 23.6,
            "Pitches": 87.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.6623,
            "WHIP": 1.6753,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.74026,
            "H_per_IP": 1.28571,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38961,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.74026,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11688
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 57.0,
            "ER": 34.0,
            "R": 36.0,
            "H": 57.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 45.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 245.0,
            "Pitches": 921.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 3.4,
            "R": 3.6,
            "H": 5.7,
            "BB": 1.7,
            "SO": 4.5,
            "HR": 0.9,
            "BF": 24.5,
            "Pitches": 92.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.3684,
            "WHIP": 1.2982,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.59649,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.29825,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.78947,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15789
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 32,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 182.0,
            "ER": 88.0,
            "R": 92.0,
            "H": 168.0,
            "BB": 54.0,
            "SO": 142.0,
            "HR": 29.0,
            "BF": 755.0,
            "Pitches": 2874.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.75,
            "R": 2.875,
            "H": 5.25,
            "BB": 1.6875,
            "SO": 4.4375,
            "HR": 0.9062,
            "BF": 23.5938,
            "Pitches": 89.8125
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.3516,
            "WHIP": 1.2198,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.48352,
            "H_per_IP": 0.92308,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2967,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.78022,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15934
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 3.334,
        "predicted_H": 5.875,
        "predicted_BB": 1.847,
        "predicted_SO": 4.228,
        "predicted_HR": 0.756,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.5953,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4401
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4071,
      "form_weight": 0.5929,
      "form_reliability": 0.8649,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 32.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8649,
        "prior_weight": 0.1351
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 3.334,
          "final": 1.9768,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 5.875,
          "final": 4.2976,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.847,
          "final": 1.0951,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.228,
          "final": 4.9493,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.756,
          "final": 0.4482,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.5953,
          "final": 5.5953,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4401,
          "final": 1.4401,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 57.0,
        "ER": 34,
        "H": 57,
        "BB": 17,
        "SO": 45,
        "HR": 9,
        "ERA": 5.368421052631579,
        "WHIP": 1.2982456140350878,
        "K9": 7.105263157894737,
        "HR9": 1.4210526315789473,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 2,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-19T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0962460380688046,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 0.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 32.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8649,
          "prior_weight": 0.1351
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "676440",
      "player_name": "Tanner Bibee",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CLE",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 0.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CLE",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 84,
        "losses": 76,
        "win_pct": 0.525,
        "runs_scored": 665.0,
        "runs_allowed": 659.0,
        "run_differential": 6.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0375,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1562,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1188,
        "offense_index": 0.9272,
        "defense_index": 1.0884,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
          "run_differential": 13.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1309
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "KC",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 68,
        "losses": 92,
        "win_pct": 0.425,
        "runs_scored": 682.0,
        "runs_allowed": 797.0,
        "run_differential": -115.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.7188,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2625,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9813,
        "offense_index": 0.9509,
        "defense_index": 0.8999,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.9,
          "run_differential": -21.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2569
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.3878,
        "offense_edge": -0.0728,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0491,
        "defense_strength": 0.0884,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.1001,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.6
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0201,
        "run_prevention": 0.9639,
        "strikeout": 1.0156
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "676440",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "676440",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 698.0,
            "k_percent": 18.8,
            "bb_percent": 7.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.318,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 39.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.5581,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8911,
            "whiff_percent": 23.4,
            "swing_percent": 47.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8982,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1772,
            "command_and_miss": -0.2007,
            "regression_edge": -0.0857,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.2,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2222,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.2143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2571,
            "bb_edge": 0.475,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1382
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "676440",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 87,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 87,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.39659142983948,
              "release_spin_rate": 2309.0608700163434,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 87,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.39659142983948,
                "release_spin_rate": 2309.0608700163434,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.3966,
              "release_spin_rate": 2309.0609,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1382,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.987,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.171,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0145,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9714,
          "walk_factor": 0.962,
          "homer_factor": 1.0323,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.003,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "676440",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0145,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0145,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.962,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0323,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9714,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 0,
      "predicted_ER": 0,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 85,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +5."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260926_CLE@KC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260926

20260926_CLE@KC

home

Michael Wacha

True

6.1

-1

8/6

2/1

6/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.334476843910806,
      "WHIP": 1.1063464837049741,
      "IP": 194.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 31,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.269,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.333,
      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0071,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0006,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9669,
      "walk_factor": 0.952,
      "homer_factor": 0.9844,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 19.6,
      "bb_percent": 6.7,
      "woba": 0.3,
      "xwoba": 0.307,
      "barrel_percent": 7.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.4,
      "whiff_percent": 21.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 14,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "608379",
      "report_date": "20260926",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 31,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 31.2,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 21.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 28.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 128.0,
            "Pitches": 504.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 4.2,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 5.6,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 25.6,
            "Pitches": 100.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.5579,
            "WHIP": 1.0105,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.28421,
            "H_per_IP": 0.66316,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34737,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.88421,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18947
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 62.0,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 45.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 50.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 248.0,
            "Pitches": 968.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.9,
            "R": 2.1,
            "H": 4.5,
            "BB": 1.5,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 24.8,
            "Pitches": 96.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7581,
            "WHIP": 0.9677,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.30645,
            "H_per_IP": 0.72581,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.24194,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.80645,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.19355
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 31,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 194.1,
            "ER": 72.0,
            "R": 76.0,
            "H": 162.0,
            "BB": 53.0,
            "SO": 154.0,
            "HR": 28.0,
            "BF": 786.0,
            "Pitches": 2938.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 2.3226,
            "R": 2.4516,
            "H": 5.2258,
            "BB": 1.7097,
            "SO": 4.9677,
            "HR": 0.9032,
            "BF": 25.3548,
            "Pitches": 94.7742
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.3345,
            "WHIP": 1.1063,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3705,
            "H_per_IP": 0.83362,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.27273,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.79245,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14408
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.138,
        "predicted_H": 4.787,
        "predicted_BB": 1.946,
        "predicted_SO": 5.397,
        "predicted_HR": 1.122,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.0387,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.063
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4087,
      "form_weight": 0.5913,
      "form_reliability": 0.8611,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.1,
          "form": 6.1,
          "final": 6.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.138,
          "final": 2.899,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 4.787,
          "final": 6.1001,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.946,
          "final": 1.9681,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.397,
          "final": 5.6434,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.122,
          "final": 0.6635,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.0387,
          "final": 3.0387,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.063,
          "final": 1.063,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 62.0,
        "ER": 19,
        "H": 45,
        "BB": 15,
        "SO": 50,
        "HR": 12,
        "ERA": 2.7580645161290325,
        "WHIP": 0.967741935483871,
        "K9": 7.258064516129032,
        "HR9": 1.7419354838709677,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-20T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.794318335748488,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 8.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 31.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8611,
          "prior_weight": 0.1389
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.1,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 8,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "608379",
      "player_name": "Michael Wacha",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "KC",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.3333,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0368,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
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            "deboosted_metrics": 2,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.1,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 8.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.3333,
            "after": 6.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0368,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 2,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "deboosted"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "KC",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 68,
        "losses": 92,
        "win_pct": 0.425,
        "runs_scored": 682.0,
        "runs_allowed": 797.0,
        "run_differential": -115.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.7188,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2625,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9813,
        "offense_index": 0.9509,
        "defense_index": 0.8999,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.9,
          "run_differential": -21.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2569
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CLE",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 84,
        "losses": 76,
        "win_pct": 0.525,
        "runs_scored": 665.0,
        "runs_allowed": 659.0,
        "run_differential": 6.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0375,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1562,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1188,
        "offense_index": 0.9272,
        "defense_index": 1.0884,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
          "run_differential": 13.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1309
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.3878,
        "offense_edge": -0.0491,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0728,
        "defense_strength": -0.1001,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0884,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.6
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9844,
        "run_prevention": 1.0178,
        "strikeout": 0.9942
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "608379",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "608379",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 708.0,
            "k_percent": 19.6,
            "bb_percent": 6.7,
            "woba": 0.3,
            "xwoba": 0.307,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 36.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.1021,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.5667,
            "whiff_percent": 21.8,
            "swing_percent": 48.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8982,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.1408,
            "command_and_miss": -0.2043,
            "regression_edge": -0.2,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.1143,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0444,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.2143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4857,
            "bb_edge": 0.6,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1607
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "608379",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 97,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 97,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 86.9953545090726,
              "release_spin_rate": 1981.837302341622,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 97,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 86.9953545090726,
                "release_spin_rate": 1981.837302341622,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 86.9954,
              "release_spin_rate": 1981.8373,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1607,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.1475,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0071,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0006,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9669,
          "walk_factor": 0.952,
          "homer_factor": 0.9844,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.007,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "608379",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0006,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0006,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.952,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9844,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9669,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.1,
      "predicted_H": 8,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 29,
      "Pitches": 113,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260926_CLE@KC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260926

20260926_COL@CHW

away

Jose Quintana

True

4.0

3.0

-3

-2

7/2

4/2

6/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.4,
      "WHIP": 1.511111111111111,
      "IP": 45.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 10,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.5,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.133,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.5107,
      "sample_weight": 0.716,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0434,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9378,
      "walk_factor": 0.9986,
      "homer_factor": 1.0436,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 11.1,
      "bb_percent": 9.0,
      "woba": 0.369,
      "xwoba": 0.359,
      "barrel_percent": 9.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.2,
      "whiff_percent": 20.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 293,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.5625,
        "last_10": 0.43749999999999994
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 10.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6667,
        "prior_weight": 0.3333
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "500779",
      "report_date": "20260926",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 10,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 20.2,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 28.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 10.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 94.0,
            "Pitches": 344.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.4,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 2.0,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 18.8,
            "Pitches": 68.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.9677,
            "WHIP": 1.6935,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.77419,
            "H_per_IP": 1.35484,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33871,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.48387,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14516
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 45.0,
            "ER": 27.0,
            "R": 30.0,
            "H": 50.0,
            "BB": 18.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 199.0,
            "Pitches": 757.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.7,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 2.2,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 19.9,
            "Pitches": 75.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.4,
            "WHIP": 1.5111,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.6,
            "H_per_IP": 1.11111,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.4,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.48889,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17778
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 45.0,
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          "per_game": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6667,
        "prior_weight": 0.3333
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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        },
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
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          "final": 5.7286,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.5301,
          "final": 1.5301,
          "source": "form_only"
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    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
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        "games_pitched": 10,
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      },
      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
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      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-19T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 1.1051203070746527,
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        "stats": {
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          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 10.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.6667,
          "prior_weight": 0.3333
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "player_id": "500779",
      "player_name": "Jose Quintana",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "COL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": -0.3333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0769,
              "direction": "deboost",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
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            {
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            {
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          ],
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          },
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          },
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        ],
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "COL",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 57,
        "losses": 103,
        "win_pct": 0.3563,
        "runs_scored": 741.0,
        "runs_allowed": 934.0,
        "run_differential": -193.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.2063,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6312,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.8375,
        "offense_index": 1.0331,
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        "current_streak": "L5",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.1,
          "run_differential": -23.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3752
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CHW",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 83,
        "losses": 77,
        "win_pct": 0.5188,
        "runs_scored": 766.0,
        "runs_allowed": 709.0,
        "run_differential": 57.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3563,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7875,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4313,
        "offense_index": 1.068,
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        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": 19.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0947
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.4699,
        "offense_edge": 0.0331,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.068,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.4
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9715,
        "run_prevention": 1.0576,
        "strikeout": 0.9805
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "500779",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "500779",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 179.0,
            "k_percent": 11.1,
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            "woba": 0.369,
            "xwoba": 0.359,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.5,
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            "avg_best_speed": 78.3903,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.4268,
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          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8982,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.8693,
            "command_and_miss": -0.9107,
            "regression_edge": 0.2857,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.3714,
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            "hard_hit_edge": 0.5286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.6143,
            "bb_edge": 0.025,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.2274
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "500779",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 72,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 72,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 85.80290690633534,
              "release_spin_rate": 2006.2347809412474,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 72,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 85.80290690633534,
                "release_spin_rate": 2006.2347809412474,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 85.8029,
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            "components": {
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              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.5107,
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          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0434,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9378,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "500779",
            "espn_rank": null
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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            "factor": 1.0311,
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0311,
            "adjusted": 5
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.999,
            "adjusted": 2
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          "predicted_HR": {
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            "factor": 1.0312,
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            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9555,
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 87,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -5."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260926_COL@CHW.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260926

20260926_COL@CHW

home

Davis Martin

True

5.0

0.2

-13

1/3

0/1

5/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.8394495412844036,
      "WHIP": 1.2935779816513762,
      "IP": 145.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.185,
      "recent_avg_IP": 3.6,
      "last_start_IP": 4.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2615,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0222,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9771,
      "walk_factor": 0.966,
      "homer_factor": 1.0427,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 19.8,
      "bb_percent": 7.4,
      "woba": 0.318,
      "xwoba": 0.33,
      "barrel_percent": 6.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 44.7,
      "whiff_percent": 23.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 55,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
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      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "663436",
      "report_date": "20260926",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 22.1,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 13.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 91.0,
            "Pitches": 324.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 3.6,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 2.6,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 18.2,
            "Pitches": 64.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.0149,
            "WHIP": 1.1194,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.22388,
            "H_per_IP": 0.80597,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31343,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.58209,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1791
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 45.0,
            "ER": 24.0,
            "R": 27.0,
            "H": 45.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 29.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 193.0,
            "Pitches": 717.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.7,
            "H": 4.5,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 2.9,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 19.3,
            "Pitches": 71.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.8,
            "WHIP": 1.3111,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.53333,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31111,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.64444,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17778
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        },
        "season": {
          "games": 28,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 145.1,
            "ER": 62.0,
            "R": 65.0,
            "H": 143.0,
            "BB": 45.0,
            "SO": 121.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 610.0,
            "Pitches": 2324.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.2143,
            "R": 2.3214,
            "H": 5.1071,
            "BB": 1.6071,
            "SO": 4.3214,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 21.7857,
            "Pitches": 83.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8394,
            "WHIP": 1.2936,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42661,
            "H_per_IP": 0.98394,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30963,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.83257,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09633
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.853,
        "predicted_H": 4.33,
        "predicted_BB": 1.515,
        "predicted_SO": 3.277,
        "predicted_HR": 0.753,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.5466,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2428
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.414,
      "form_weight": 0.586,
      "form_reliability": 0.8485,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.853,
          "final": 1.0858,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 4.33,
          "final": 2.9514,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.515,
          "final": 0.8878,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.277,
          "final": 3.9903,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
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        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 0.753,
          "final": 0.4413,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.5466,
          "final": 3.5466,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2428,
          "final": 1.2428,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 45.0,
        "ER": 24,
        "H": 45,
        "BB": 14,
        "SO": 29,
        "HR": 8,
        "ERA": 4.8,
        "WHIP": 1.3111111111111111,
        "K9": 5.8,
        "HR9": 1.6,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-20T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0326203070746527,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 0.0,
          "predicted_H": 1.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
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        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 28.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8485,
          "prior_weight": 0.1515
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "663436",
      "player_name": "Davis Martin",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHW",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 0.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
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          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            "percent_delta": null,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
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        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CHW",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 83,
        "losses": 77,
        "win_pct": 0.5188,
        "runs_scored": 766.0,
        "runs_allowed": 709.0,
        "run_differential": 57.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3563,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7875,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4313,
        "offense_index": 1.068,
        "defense_index": 1.0116,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": 19.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0947
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "COL",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 57,
        "losses": 103,
        "win_pct": 0.3563,
        "runs_scored": 741.0,
        "runs_allowed": 934.0,
        "run_differential": -193.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.2063,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6312,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.8375,
        "offense_index": 1.0331,
        "defense_index": 0.7679,
        "current_streak": "L5",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.1,
          "run_differential": -23.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3752
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.4699,
        "offense_edge": 0.068,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0331,
        "defense_strength": 0.0116,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.2321,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.4
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0178,
        "run_prevention": 0.9806,
        "strikeout": 1.0114
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "663436",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "663436",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 555.0,
            "k_percent": 19.8,
            "bb_percent": 7.4,
            "woba": 0.318,
            "xwoba": 0.33,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 44.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.6543,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.8844,
            "whiff_percent": 23.4,
            "swing_percent": 48.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8982,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.339,
            "command_and_miss": -0.1464,
            "regression_edge": -0.3429,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.5429,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1556,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.9714,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2571,
            "bb_edge": 0.425,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0085
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "663436",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 51,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 51,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.01624850726196,
              "release_spin_rate": 2480.5211487507763,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 51,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.01624850726196,
                "release_spin_rate": 2480.5211487507763,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.0162,
              "release_spin_rate": 2480.5211,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0085,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.0608,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2615,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0222,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9771,
          "walk_factor": 0.966,
          "homer_factor": 1.0427,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.012,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "663436",
            "espn_rank": null
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0222,
            "adjusted": 2
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0222,
            "adjusted": 5
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.966,
            "adjusted": 2
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          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0427,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9771,
            "adjusted": 4
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 1,
      "predicted_R": 0,
      "predicted_ER": 0,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 16,
      "Pitches": 78,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -13 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260926_COL@CHW.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260926

20260926_HOU@OAK

away

Hayden Wesneski

True

5.1

7.0

-2

2/6

1/1

3/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.5,
      "WHIP": 1.1481481481481481,
      "IP": 54.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 10,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.4,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.267,
      "last_start_IP": 5.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0206,
      "sample_weight": 0.784,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9982,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9736,
      "walk_factor": 0.9937,
      "homer_factor": 0.9842,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.7,
      "bb_percent": 8.7,
      "woba": 0.288,
      "xwoba": 0.304,
      "barrel_percent": 5.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 40.1,
      "whiff_percent": 22.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 224,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.5625,
        "last_10": 0.43749999999999994
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 10.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6667,
        "prior_weight": 0.3333
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669713",
      "report_date": "20260926",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 10,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.1,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 19.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 19.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 106.0,
            "Pitches": 404.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 3.8,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 21.2,
            "Pitches": 80.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7342,
            "WHIP": 1.0633,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3038,
            "H_per_IP": 0.72152,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34177,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.72152,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07595
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 54.0,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 25.0,
            "H": 43.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 41.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 219.0,
            "Pitches": 816.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.1,
            "R": 2.5,
            "H": 4.3,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 4.1,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 21.9,
            "Pitches": 81.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.5,
            "WHIP": 1.1481,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.38889,
            "H_per_IP": 0.7963,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35185,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.75926,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07407
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 54.0,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 25.0,
            "H": 43.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 41.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 219.0,
            "Pitches": 816.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.1,
            "R": 2.5,
            "H": 4.3,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 4.1,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 21.9,
            "Pitches": 81.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.5,
            "WHIP": 1.1481,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.38889,
            "H_per_IP": 0.7963,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35185,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.75926,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07407
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.126,
        "predicted_H": 4.43,
        "predicted_BB": 1.906,
        "predicted_SO": 4.288,
        "predicted_HR": 0.531,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.5868,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1879
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4908,
      "form_weight": 0.5092,
      "form_reliability": 0.6667,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 10.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6667,
        "prior_weight": 0.3333
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.126,
          "final": 2.555,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.43,
          "final": 3.2373,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.906,
          "final": 1.4613,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.288,
          "final": 3.6558,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.531,
          "final": 0.2704,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.5868,
          "final": 3.5868,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1879,
          "final": 1.1879,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 54.0,
        "ER": 21,
        "H": 43,
        "BB": 19,
        "SO": 41,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 3.5000000000000004,
        "WHIP": 1.1481481481481484,
        "K9": 6.833333333333334,
        "HR9": 0.6666666666666667,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-19T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8822962330005788,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 10.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.6667,
          "prior_weight": 0.3333
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669713",
      "player_name": "Hayden Wesneski",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "HOU",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
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            "delta": -0.2333,
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            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 79,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.4938,
        "runs_scored": 712.0,
        "runs_allowed": 764.0,
        "run_differential": -52.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.325,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.45,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.775,
        "offense_index": 0.9917,
        "defense_index": 0.9397,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0801
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "OAK",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 64,
        "losses": 96,
        "win_pct": 0.4,
        "runs_scored": 697.0,
        "runs_allowed": 915.0,
        "run_differential": -218.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.3625,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3563,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7188,
        "offense_index": 0.9708,
        "defense_index": 0.7846,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.6,
          "run_differential": -15.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.322
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2419,
        "offense_edge": -0.0083,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0292,
        "defense_strength": -0.0603,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.2154,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.009,
        "run_prevention": 0.9893,
        "strikeout": 1.0096
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669713",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669713",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 196.0,
            "k_percent": 18.7,
            "bb_percent": 8.7,
            "woba": 0.288,
            "xwoba": 0.304,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 40.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.4929,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.0037,
            "whiff_percent": 22.6,
            "swing_percent": 48.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8982,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.2924,
            "command_and_miss": -0.3221,
            "regression_edge": -0.4571,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.2,
            "barrel_edge": 0.3333,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.3143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3714,
            "bb_edge": 0.1,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0994
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669713",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 83,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 83,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.08890165876376,
              "release_spin_rate": 2309.2290178570775,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 83,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.08890165876376,
                "release_spin_rate": 2309.2290178570775,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.0889,
              "release_spin_rate": 2309.229,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0994,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.7101,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0206,
          "sample_weight": 0.784,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9982,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9736,
          "walk_factor": 0.9937,
          "homer_factor": 0.9842,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.016,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "669713",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9986,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9986,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9951,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9876,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9793,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 82,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260926_HOU@OAK.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260926

20260926_HOU@OAK

home

Jack Perkins

True

4.2

5.0

5/5

2/3

3/9

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.896551724137931,
      "WHIP": 1.4482758620689655,
      "IP": 116.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 36,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.771,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.133,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0739,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9937,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0251,
      "walk_factor": 1.002,
      "homer_factor": 1.0157,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 25.2,
      "bb_percent": 9.2,
      "woba": 0.347,
      "xwoba": 0.309,
      "barrel_percent": 8.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.9,
      "whiff_percent": 26.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 822,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 36.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.878,
        "prior_weight": 0.122
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "678022",
      "report_date": "20260926",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 36,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.2,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 27.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 108.0,
            "Pitches": 414.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 5.4,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 21.6,
            "Pitches": 82.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1558,
            "WHIP": 1.3247,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.35065,
            "H_per_IP": 0.93506,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38961,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.05195,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11688
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 47.2,
            "ER": 27.0,
            "R": 32.0,
            "H": 54.0,
            "BB": 21.0,
            "SO": 51.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 213.0,
            "Pitches": 816.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.7,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 2.1,
            "SO": 5.1,
            "HR": 0.9,
            "BF": 21.3,
            "Pitches": 81.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.0979,
            "WHIP": 1.5734,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.56643,
            "H_per_IP": 1.13287,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.44056,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.06993,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18881
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 36,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 116.0,
            "ER": 76.0,
            "R": 83.0,
            "H": 120.0,
            "BB": 48.0,
            "SO": 131.0,
            "HR": 20.0,
            "BF": 519.0,
            "Pitches": 2007.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.1,
            "ER": 2.1111,
            "R": 2.3056,
            "H": 3.3333,
            "BB": 1.3333,
            "SO": 3.6389,
            "HR": 0.5556,
            "BF": 14.4167,
            "Pitches": 55.75
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.8966,
            "WHIP": 1.4483,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.65517,
            "H_per_IP": 1.03448,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.41379,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.12931,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17241
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.258,
        "predicted_H": 4.693,
        "predicted_BB": 1.88,
        "predicted_SO": 4.867,
        "predicted_HR": 0.703,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.4128,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4275
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4015,
      "form_weight": 0.5985,
      "form_reliability": 0.878,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 36.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.878,
        "prior_weight": 0.122
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.258,
          "final": 2.1544,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.693,
          "final": 4.0132,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.88,
          "final": 1.9282,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.867,
          "final": 4.1173,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.703,
          "final": 0.8223,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.4128,
          "final": 4.4128,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4275,
          "final": 1.4275,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 47.2,
        "ER": 27,
        "H": 54,
        "BB": 21,
        "SO": 51,
        "HR": 9,
        "ERA": 5.097902097902098,
        "WHIP": 1.5734265734265735,
        "K9": 9.62937062937063,
        "HR9": 1.6993006993006994,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 2,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-20T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0726921796465254,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 36.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.878,
          "prior_weight": 0.122
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.2,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 3,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_quality_floor",
        "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.2,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 3,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "678022",
      "player_name": "Jack Perkins",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "OAK",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "percent_delta": -0.16,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "starter_quality_floor",
          "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
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            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "delta": 1.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.6667,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_boost": {
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            "biggest_deboost": null
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          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 4,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.2,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          {
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          {
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          },
          {
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            "direction": "deboost",
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          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.8,
            "percent_delta": -0.16,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "OAK",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 64,
        "losses": 96,
        "win_pct": 0.4,
        "runs_scored": 697.0,
        "runs_allowed": 915.0,
        "run_differential": -218.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.3625,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3563,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7188,
        "offense_index": 0.9708,
        "defense_index": 0.7846,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.6,
          "run_differential": -15.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.322
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 79,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.4938,
        "runs_scored": 712.0,
        "runs_allowed": 764.0,
        "run_differential": -52.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.325,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.45,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.775,
        "offense_index": 0.9917,
        "defense_index": 0.9397,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0801
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2419,
        "offense_edge": -0.0292,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0083,
        "defense_strength": -0.2154,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0603,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9842,
        "run_prevention": 1.0323,
        "strikeout": 0.9934
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "678022",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "678022",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 462.0,
            "k_percent": 25.2,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.347,
            "xwoba": 0.309,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 36.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.2613,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.5291,
            "whiff_percent": 26.4,
            "swing_percent": 48.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8982,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1943,
            "command_and_miss": 0.2607,
            "regression_edge": 1.0857,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.0571,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2889,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.1429,
            "whiff_edge": 0.1714,
            "bb_edge": -0.025,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0793
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "678022",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 87,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 87,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 91.28030678673174,
              "release_spin_rate": 2236.0689533094624,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 87,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 91.28030678673174,
                "release_spin_rate": 2236.0689533094624,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.2803,
              "release_spin_rate": 2236.069,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0793,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.5665,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0739,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9937,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0251,
          "walk_factor": 1.002,
          "homer_factor": 1.0157,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.038,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "678022",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9937,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9937,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.002,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0157,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0251,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 94,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260926_HOU@OAK.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260926

20260926_LAA@SEA

away

Ryan Johnson

True

5.1

5.0

-1

5/7

0/4

4/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.926315789473684,
      "WHIP": 1.3473684210526315,
      "IP": 95.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 21,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.0,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.533,
      "last_start_IP": 4.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3272,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0278,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9709,
      "walk_factor": 1.008,
      "homer_factor": 1.0559,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.5,
      "bb_percent": 9.5,
      "woba": 0.332,
      "xwoba": 0.337,
      "barrel_percent": 9.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.0,
      "whiff_percent": 23.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 434,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 21.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8077,
        "prior_weight": 0.1923
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "696270",
      "report_date": "20260926",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 21,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.2,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 26.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 115.0,
            "Pitches": 461.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 23.0,
            "Pitches": 92.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.9277,
            "WHIP": 1.1566,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3253,
            "H_per_IP": 0.86747,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28916,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.93976,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07229
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 53.1,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 42.0,
            "BB": 22.0,
            "SO": 42.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 221.0,
            "Pitches": 884.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 4.2,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 22.1,
            "Pitches": 88.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0375,
            "WHIP": 1.2,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3375,
            "H_per_IP": 0.7875,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.4125,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.7875,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13125
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 21,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 95.0,
            "ER": 52.0,
            "R": 57.0,
            "H": 89.0,
            "BB": 39.0,
            "SO": 76.0,
            "HR": 18.0,
            "BF": 410.0,
            "Pitches": 1636.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.4762,
            "R": 2.7143,
            "H": 4.2381,
            "BB": 1.8571,
            "SO": 3.619,
            "HR": 0.8571,
            "BF": 19.5238,
            "Pitches": 77.9048
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.9263,
            "WHIP": 1.3474,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.54737,
            "H_per_IP": 0.93684,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.41053,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.8,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18947
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.143,
        "predicted_H": 4.696,
        "predicted_BB": 1.93,
        "predicted_SO": 4.67,
        "predicted_HR": 0.655,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.6074,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2393
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4312,
      "form_weight": 0.5688,
      "form_reliability": 0.8077,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 21.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8077,
        "prior_weight": 0.1923
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.143,
          "final": 1.6501,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.696,
          "final": 4.8271,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.93,
          "final": 1.0977,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.67,
          "final": 4.3811,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.655,
          "final": 0.3725,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.6074,
          "final": 3.6074,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2393,
          "final": 1.2393,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 53.1,
        "ER": 18,
        "H": 42,
        "BB": 22,
        "SO": 42,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 3.0375,
        "WHIP": 1.2000000000000002,
        "K9": 7.0875,
        "HR9": 1.1812500000000001,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-20T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.831561279296875,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 21.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8077,
          "prior_weight": 0.1923
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "696270",
      "player_name": "Ryan Johnson",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "LAA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "LAA",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 62,
        "losses": 98,
        "win_pct": 0.3875,
        "runs_scored": 648.0,
        "runs_allowed": 737.0,
        "run_differential": -89.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5563,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.05,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6063,
        "offense_index": 0.9026,
        "defense_index": 0.9741,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.3,
          "run_differential": -15.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1638
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SEA",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 86,
        "win_pct": 0.4625,
        "runs_scored": 649.0,
        "runs_allowed": 715.0,
        "run_differential": -66.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4125,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0563,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4688,
        "offense_index": 0.904,
        "defense_index": 1.0041,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": -8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1174
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0464,
        "offense_edge": -0.0974,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.096,
        "defense_strength": -0.0259,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0041,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0012,
        "run_prevention": 0.9895,
        "strikeout": 1.0063
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "696270",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "696270",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 362.0,
            "k_percent": 18.5,
            "bb_percent": 9.5,
            "woba": 0.332,
            "xwoba": 0.337,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 36.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.8902,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.5365,
            "whiff_percent": 23.6,
            "swing_percent": 46.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8982,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.3857,
            "command_and_miss": -0.325,
            "regression_edge": -0.1429,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.7429,
            "barrel_edge": -0.5556,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.2714,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2286,
            "bb_edge": -0.1,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1556
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "696270",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 92,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 92,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.08612475150535,
              "release_spin_rate": 2294.5542445027313,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 92,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.08612475150535,
                "release_spin_rate": 2294.5542445027313,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.0861,
              "release_spin_rate": 2294.5542,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1556,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.1112,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3272,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0278,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9709,
          "walk_factor": 1.008,
          "homer_factor": 1.0559,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.005,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "696270",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0278,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0278,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.008,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0559,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9709,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 94,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260926_LAA@SEA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260926

20260926_LAA@SEA

home

Kade Anderson

True

5.1

3.1

-6

-1

2/4

2/1

8/4

Last 10 before this game (6 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "WHIP": 1.2061855670103092,
      "IP": 32.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 6,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.389,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.333,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0083,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0007,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9941,
      "walk_factor": 0.973,
      "homer_factor": 1.0192,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.4,
      "bb_percent": 6.1,
      "woba": 0.308,
      "xwoba": 0.308,
      "barrel_percent": 8.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 42.1,
      "whiff_percent": 23.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 278,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.8653846153846154,
        "last_10": 0.1346153846153846
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      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 6.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5455,
        "prior_weight": 0.4545
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "807739",
      "report_date": "20260926",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 6,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.2,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 109.0,
            "Pitches": 401.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 21.8,
            "Pitches": 80.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.05,
            "WHIP": 1.2,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.45,
            "H_per_IP": 0.975,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.225,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.8625,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.075
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 6,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 32.1,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 31.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 28.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 131.0,
            "Pitches": 482.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.5,
            "R": 2.5,
            "H": 5.1667,
            "BB": 1.3333,
            "SO": 4.6667,
            "HR": 0.6667,
            "BF": 21.8333,
            "Pitches": 80.3333
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.1753,
            "WHIP": 1.2062,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46392,
            "H_per_IP": 0.95876,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.24742,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.86598,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12371
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 6,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 32.1,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 31.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 28.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 131.0,
            "Pitches": 482.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.5,
            "R": 2.5,
            "H": 5.1667,
            "BB": 1.3333,
            "SO": 4.6667,
            "HR": 0.6667,
            "BF": 21.8333,
            "Pitches": 80.3333
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.1753,
            "WHIP": 1.2062,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46392,
            "H_per_IP": 0.95876,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.24742,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.86598,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12371
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.56,
        "predicted_H": 5.214,
        "predicted_BB": 1.583,
        "predicted_SO": 4.779,
        "predicted_HR": 0.598,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.3192,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2744
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.542,
      "form_weight": 0.458,
      "form_reliability": 0.5455,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 6.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5455,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.56,
          "final": 1.7144,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 5.214,
          "final": 3.4719,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.583,
          "final": 1.809,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 4.779,
          "final": 6.5249,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.598,
          "final": 0.2739,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.3192,
          "final": 4.3192,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2744,
          "final": 1.2744,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 32.1,
        "ER": 15,
        "H": 31,
        "BB": 8,
        "SO": 28,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 4.175257731958763,
        "WHIP": 1.2061855670103094,
        "K9": 7.7938144329896915,
        "HR9": 1.1134020618556704,
        "games_pitched": 6,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 6,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 6,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-20T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9597136633174936,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 8.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 6.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.5455,
          "prior_weight": 0.4545
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "807739",
      "player_name": "Kade Anderson",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SEA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 8.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SEA",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 86,
        "win_pct": 0.4625,
        "runs_scored": 649.0,
        "runs_allowed": 715.0,
        "run_differential": -66.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4125,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0563,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4688,
        "offense_index": 0.904,
        "defense_index": 1.0041,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": -8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1174
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "LAA",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 62,
        "losses": 98,
        "win_pct": 0.3875,
        "runs_scored": 648.0,
        "runs_allowed": 737.0,
        "run_differential": -89.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5563,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.05,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6063,
        "offense_index": 0.9026,
        "defense_index": 0.9741,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.3,
          "run_differential": -15.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1638
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0464,
        "offense_edge": -0.096,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0974,
        "defense_strength": 0.0041,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0259,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0059,
        "run_prevention": 0.9817,
        "strikeout": 1.0092
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "807739",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "807739",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 107.0,
            "k_percent": 21.4,
            "bb_percent": 6.1,
            "woba": 0.308,
            "xwoba": 0.308,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 42.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.2477,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.0143,
            "whiff_percent": 23.5,
            "swing_percent": 54.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8982,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.0367,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0264,
            "regression_edge": 0.0,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.0857,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2667,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.6,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2429,
            "bb_edge": 0.75,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0604
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "807739",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 79,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 79,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.78642537896546,
              "release_spin_rate": 2094.986479780848,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 79,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.78642537896546,
                "release_spin_rate": 2094.986479780848,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.7864,
              "release_spin_rate": 2094.9865,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0604,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.4311,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0083,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0007,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9941,
          "walk_factor": 0.973,
          "homer_factor": 1.0192,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.0,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "807739",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0003,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0003,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9879,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0086,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9973,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 93,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 6 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -6 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260926_LAA@SEA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260926

20260926_LAD@SF

away

Blake Snell

True

5.2

4.0

-5

1/5

0/0

5/3

Last 10 before this game (8 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 1.8620689655172415,
      "WHIP": 1.0862068965517242,
      "IP": 38.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 8,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.833,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.733,
      "last_start_IP": 1.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.8549,
      "sample_weight": 0.612,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9273,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0762,
      "walk_factor": 1.0135,
      "homer_factor": 0.8289,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 33.1,
      "bb_percent": 10.2,
      "woba": 0.237,
      "xwoba": 0.228,
      "barrel_percent": 1.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 15.9,
      "whiff_percent": 35.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 122,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.0,
      "season_IP": 38.2,
      "season_ERA": 1.862,
      "season_WHIP": 1.086,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.6818181818181818,
        "last_10": 0.3181818181818182
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 8.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6154,
        "prior_weight": 0.3846
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "605483",
      "report_date": "20260926",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 8,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 15.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 32.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 94.0,
            "Pitches": 413.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 0.4,
            "R": 0.4,
            "H": 3.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 6.4,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 18.8,
            "Pitches": 82.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 0.7606,
            "WHIP": 1.0563,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.08451,
            "H_per_IP": 0.6338,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42254,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.35211,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 8,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 38.2,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 52.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 157.0,
            "Pitches": 664.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.125,
            "H": 3.25,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 6.5,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 19.625,
            "Pitches": 83.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.8621,
            "WHIP": 1.0862,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.2069,
            "H_per_IP": 0.67241,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.41379,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.34483,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 8,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 38.2,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 52.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 157.0,
            "Pitches": 664.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.125,
            "H": 3.25,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 6.5,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 19.625,
            "Pitches": 83.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.8621,
            "WHIP": 1.0862,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.2069,
            "H_per_IP": 0.67241,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.41379,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.34483,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.311,
        "predicted_H": 3.72,
        "predicted_BB": 1.939,
        "predicted_SO": 5.709,
        "predicted_HR": 0.274,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.4614,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.18
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5125,
      "form_weight": 0.4875,
      "form_reliability": 0.6154,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 8.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6154,
        "prior_weight": 0.3846
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.311,
          "final": 0.6391,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 3.72,
          "final": 2.326,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.939,
          "final": 0.9453,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 5.709,
          "final": 4.3207,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.274,
          "final": 0.1336,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.4614,
          "final": 2.4614,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.18,
          "final": 1.18,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 38.2,
        "ER": 8,
        "H": 26,
        "BB": 16,
        "SO": 52,
        "HR": 0,
        "ERA": 1.862068965517241,
        "WHIP": 1.086206896551724,
        "K9": 12.103448275862068,
        "HR9": 0.0,
        "games_pitched": 8,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 8,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 8,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-16T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.6964804603313578,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 0.0,
          "predicted_H": 1.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 8.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.6154,
          "prior_weight": 0.3846
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 0,
          "predicted_H": 1,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "605483",
      "player_name": "Blake Snell",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "LAD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
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        {
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        {
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          "step": "current_json_final",
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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        ],
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "LAD",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 98,
        "losses": 62,
        "win_pct": 0.6125,
        "runs_scored": 792.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 1.225,
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          "run_differential": 23.0
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "games": 160,
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        "losses": 95,
        "win_pct": 0.4062,
        "runs_scored": 665.0,
        "runs_allowed": 751.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5375,
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": 0.1037,
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      "player_factors": {
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        "strikeout": 1.0218
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "605483",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "605483",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "k_percent": 33.1,
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            "woba": 0.237,
            "xwoba": 0.228,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 28.4,
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            "avg_best_speed": 71.0562,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 91.0663,
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          "league_medians": {
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          "components": {
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            "regression_edge": 0.2571,
            "xwoba_edge": 2.3714,
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          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "605483",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 97,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 97,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.58527815729902,
              "release_spin_rate": 2351.694545988685,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "pitches": 97,
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                "release_speed": 89.58527815729902,
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                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.5853,
              "release_spin_rate": 2351.6945,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0156,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.1116,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.8549,
          "sample_weight": 0.612,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9273,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0762,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.009,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "605483",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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            "factor": 0.9555,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9555,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0083,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.8953,
            "adjusted": 0
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          "predicted_SO": {
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            "factor": 1.0466,
            "adjusted": 6
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 1,
      "predicted_R": 0,
      "predicted_ER": 0,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 18,
      "Pitches": 74,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 8 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260926_LAD@SF.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260926

20260926_LAD@SF

home

Matt Wilkinson

True

4.2

3.0

-5

3/1

1/1

6/2

Last 10 before this game (7 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "woba": 0.286,
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      "barrel_percent": 6.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 42.9,
      "whiff_percent": 18.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 424,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
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      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
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      "weights": {
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      "effective_weights": {
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      "shrinkage": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "683363",
      "report_date": "20260926",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 7,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.333,
      "windows": {
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          "totals": {
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            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 13.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
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            "HR": 0.6,
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            "Pitches": 58.2
          },
          "rates": {
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.31579,
            "H_per_IP": 0.68421,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21053,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.84211,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15789
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        },
        "last_10": {
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          "totals": {
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            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 18.0,
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            "Pitches": 382.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "HR": 0.5714,
            "BF": 14.1429,
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          },
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            "BB_per_IP": 0.16216,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.72973,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16216
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        },
        "season": {
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          "totals": {
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            "BB": 4.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
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            "HR_per_IP": 0.16216
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.62,
        "predicted_H": 3.282,
        "predicted_BB": 1.082,
        "predicted_SO": 3.414,
        "predicted_HR": 0.61,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.6955,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1062
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "form_reliability": 0.5833,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 7.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
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        "prior_weight": 0.4167
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 4.0,
          "final": 4.2,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 1.62,
          "final": 1.2938,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.282,
          "final": 3.1337,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.082,
          "final": 1.0389,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 3.414,
          "final": 4.7744,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.61,
          "final": 0.2891,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.6955,
          "final": 3.6955,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1062,
          "final": 1.1062,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 24.2,
        "ER": 10,
        "H": 21,
        "BB": 4,
        "SO": 18,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 3.6486486486486487,
        "WHIP": 1.0135135135135134,
        "K9": 6.5675675675675675,
        "HR9": 1.4594594594594594,
        "games_pitched": 7,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 7,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 7,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-20T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9142457500696182,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 7.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.5833,
          "prior_weight": 0.4167
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "683363",
      "player_name": "Matt Wilkinson",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SF",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.1333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0308,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.1333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0308,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.3333,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.1333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0308,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.3333,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.1333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0308,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SF",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 65,
        "losses": 95,
        "win_pct": 0.4062,
        "runs_scored": 665.0,
        "runs_allowed": 751.0,
        "run_differential": -86.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5375,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1562,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6937,
        "offense_index": 0.9267,
        "defense_index": 0.9555,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": -9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2156
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "LAD",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 98,
        "losses": 62,
        "win_pct": 0.6125,
        "runs_scored": 792.0,
        "runs_allowed": 596.0,
        "run_differential": 196.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.225,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.95,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.725,
        "offense_index": 1.1037,
        "defense_index": 1.204,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.4,
          "run_differential": 23.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3159
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.5315,
        "offense_edge": -0.0733,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1037,
        "defense_strength": -0.0445,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.204,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.4
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9733,
        "run_prevention": 1.0476,
        "strikeout": 0.9758
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "683363",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "683363",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 81.0,
            "k_percent": 18.2,
            "bb_percent": 4.0,
            "woba": 0.286,
            "xwoba": 0.277,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 29.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 42.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.36,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9761,
            "whiff_percent": 18.8,
            "swing_percent": 44.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8982,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.4996,
            "command_and_miss": -0.3093,
            "regression_edge": 0.2571,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.9714,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1556,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.7143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.9143,
            "bb_edge": 1.275,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1358
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "683363",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 56,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 56,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.43889451666871,
              "release_spin_rate": 1987.095936949808,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 56,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.43889451666871,
                "release_spin_rate": 1987.095936949808,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.4389,
              "release_spin_rate": 1987.0959,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1358,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.9701,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0964,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9918,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9738,
          "walk_factor": 0.9541,
          "homer_factor": 0.9941,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.009,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "683363",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9963,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9963,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9793,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9973,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9882,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 80,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 7 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260926_LAD@SF.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260926

20260926_NYM@WAS

away

Jonah Tong

True

5.0

-2

5/3

2/1

6/9

Last 10 before this game (6 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.207792207792208,
      "WHIP": 1.3246753246753247,
      "IP": 25.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 6,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.222,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.222,
      "last_start_IP": 4.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1322,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9888,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0041,
      "walk_factor": 1.0207,
      "homer_factor": 0.9695,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.9,
      "bb_percent": 11.4,
      "woba": 0.286,
      "xwoba": 0.284,
      "barrel_percent": 5.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.0,
      "whiff_percent": 26.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 614,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.8653846153846154,
        "last_10": 0.1346153846153846
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 6.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5455,
        "prior_weight": 0.4545
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "804636",
      "report_date": "20260926",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 6,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 22.2,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 21.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 105.0,
            "Pitches": 424.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 4.2,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 21.0,
            "Pitches": 84.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.7647,
            "WHIP": 1.4559,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.52941,
            "H_per_IP": 0.92647,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.52941,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.01471,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08824
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 6,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.2,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 21.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 25.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 114.0,
            "Pitches": 452.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.5,
            "H": 3.5,
            "BB": 2.1667,
            "SO": 4.1667,
            "HR": 0.3333,
            "BF": 19.0,
            "Pitches": 75.3333
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2078,
            "WHIP": 1.3247,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46753,
            "H_per_IP": 0.81818,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.50649,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.97403,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07792
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 6,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.2,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 21.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 25.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 114.0,
            "Pitches": 452.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.5,
            "H": 3.5,
            "BB": 2.1667,
            "SO": 4.1667,
            "HR": 0.3333,
            "BF": 19.0,
            "Pitches": 75.3333
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2078,
            "WHIP": 1.3247,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46753,
            "H_per_IP": 0.81818,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.50649,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.97403,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07792
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "model": 5.0,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.482,
          "final": 3.3048,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "form": 4.527,
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          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "form": 2.203,
          "final": 2.093,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
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          "final": 4.659,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.404,
          "final": 1.404,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "HR": 0,
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        "R": 0,
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        "2B": 0,
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        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 25.2,
        "ER": 12,
        "H": 21,
        "BB": 13,
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        "HR": 2,
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        "K9": 8.766233766233766,
        "HR9": 0.7012987012987013,
        "games_pitched": 6,
        "quality_starts": 1,
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      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 6,
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      },
      "games_count": 6,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-20T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9712126715779305,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.5455,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "804636",
      "player_name": "Jonah Tong",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "NYM",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          {
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "NYM",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 87,
        "win_pct": 0.4562,
        "runs_scored": 688.0,
        "runs_allowed": 724.0,
        "run_differential": -36.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.225,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.525,
        "offense_index": 0.9568,
        "defense_index": 0.9932,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": -1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0998
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "WAS",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 76,
        "losses": 84,
        "win_pct": 0.475,
        "runs_scored": 814.0,
        "runs_allowed": 804.0,
        "run_differential": 10.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0625,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.0875,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.025,
        "offense_index": 1.1321,
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        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": 8.0
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        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0564
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      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1562,
        "offense_edge": -0.0432,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1321,
        "defense_strength": -0.0068,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.1057,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9883,
        "run_prevention": 1.0296,
        "strikeout": 0.9847
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "804636",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "804636",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 89.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 11.4,
            "woba": 0.286,
            "xwoba": 0.284,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 28.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 36.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.655,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.6935,
            "whiff_percent": 26.9,
            "swing_percent": 50.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8982,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.52,
            "command_and_miss": -0.0364,
            "regression_edge": 0.0571,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.7714,
            "barrel_edge": 0.4222,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.2714,
            "whiff_edge": 0.2429,
            "bb_edge": -0.575,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0784
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "804636",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 71,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 71,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 91.26372062270342,
              "release_spin_rate": 2117.2126479472468,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 71,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 91.26372062270342,
                "release_spin_rate": 2117.2126479472468,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.2637,
              "release_spin_rate": 2117.2126,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0784,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.5598,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1322,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9888,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0041,
          "walk_factor": 1.0207,
          "homer_factor": 0.9695,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.002,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "804636",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.995,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.995,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0093,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9863,
            "adjusted": 0
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0018,
            "adjusted": 6
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 98,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 6 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260926_NYM@WAS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260926

20260926_NYM@WAS

home

Connelly Early

True

5.2

3.0

-8

-5

4/1

3/0

3/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.436363636363636,
      "WHIP": 1.2545454545454544,
      "IP": 91.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 17,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.392,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.067,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1865,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0158,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0017,
      "walk_factor": 0.992,
      "homer_factor": 1.0853,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.8,
      "bb_percent": 8.7,
      "woba": 0.32,
      "xwoba": 0.32,
      "barrel_percent": 10.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 40.9,
      "whiff_percent": 23.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 113,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 17.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7727,
        "prior_weight": 0.2273
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "813349",
      "report_date": "20260926",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 17,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.1,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 30.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 113.0,
            "Pitches": 444.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 6.0,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 22.6,
            "Pitches": 88.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9079,
            "WHIP": 1.4605,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.43421,
            "H_per_IP": 1.02632,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.43421,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.18421,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15789
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 56.0,
            "ER": 20.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 51.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 62.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 239.0,
            "Pitches": 912.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 5.1,
            "BB": 1.7,
            "SO": 6.2,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 23.9,
            "Pitches": 91.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.2143,
            "WHIP": 1.2143,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.35714,
            "H_per_IP": 0.91071,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30357,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.10714,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17857
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 17,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 91.2,
            "ER": 35.0,
            "R": 35.0,
            "H": 81.0,
            "BB": 34.0,
            "SO": 93.0,
            "HR": 15.0,
            "BF": 390.0,
            "Pitches": 1528.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.0588,
            "R": 2.0588,
            "H": 4.7647,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 5.4706,
            "HR": 0.8824,
            "BF": 22.9412,
            "Pitches": 89.8824
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4364,
            "WHIP": 1.2545,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.38182,
            "H_per_IP": 0.88364,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37091,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.01455,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16364
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.279,
        "predicted_H": 5.185,
        "predicted_BB": 2.028,
        "predicted_SO": 5.818,
        "predicted_HR": 0.874,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.8098,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3399
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.446,
      "form_weight": 0.554,
      "form_reliability": 0.7727,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 17.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7727,
        "prior_weight": 0.2273
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 2.279,
          "final": 3.4927,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.185,
          "final": 4.6564,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.028,
          "final": 2.4615,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 5.818,
          "final": 4.5611,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.874,
          "final": 0.9302,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.8098,
          "final": 3.8098,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3399,
          "final": 1.3399,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 56.0,
        "ER": 20,
        "H": 51,
        "BB": 17,
        "SO": 62,
        "HR": 10,
        "ERA": 3.2142857142857144,
        "WHIP": 1.2142857142857142,
        "K9": 9.964285714285714,
        "HR9": 1.6071428571428572,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-06-30T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8518068150111606,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 5.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 17.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7727,
          "prior_weight": 0.2273
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "813349",
      "player_name": "Connelly Early",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "WAS",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "WAS",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 76,
        "losses": 84,
        "win_pct": 0.475,
        "runs_scored": 814.0,
        "runs_allowed": 804.0,
        "run_differential": 10.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0625,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.0875,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.025,
        "offense_index": 1.1321,
        "defense_index": 0.8943,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": 8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0564
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "NYM",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 87,
        "win_pct": 0.4562,
        "runs_scored": 688.0,
        "runs_allowed": 724.0,
        "run_differential": -36.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.225,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.525,
        "offense_index": 0.9568,
        "defense_index": 0.9932,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": -1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0998
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1562,
        "offense_edge": 0.1321,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0432,
        "defense_strength": -0.1057,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0068,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0048,
        "run_prevention": 0.9958,
        "strikeout": 1.0081
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "813349",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "813349",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 345.0,
            "k_percent": 23.8,
            "bb_percent": 8.7,
            "woba": 0.32,
            "xwoba": 0.32,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 10.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 40.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.9147,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.5085,
            "whiff_percent": 23.7,
            "swing_percent": 46.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8982,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.3526,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0607,
            "regression_edge": 0.0,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.2571,
            "barrel_edge": -0.7556,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.4286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2143,
            "bb_edge": 0.1,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0601
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "813349",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 96,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 96,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.79168102475339,
              "release_spin_rate": 2114.250313622991,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 96,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.79168102475339,
                "release_spin_rate": 2114.250313622991,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.7917,
              "release_spin_rate": 2114.2503,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0601,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.429,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1865,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0158,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0017,
          "walk_factor": 0.992,
          "homer_factor": 1.0853,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.0,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "813349",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0158,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0158,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.992,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0853,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0017,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 99,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -5; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -8 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 5 ER."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260926_NYM@WAS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260926

20260926_PIT@DET

away

Kirby Yates

True

5.0

1.2

-10

-2

5/2

2/0

4/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.098360655737705,
      "WHIP": 1.180327868852459,
      "IP": 40.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 44,
      "role_avg_IP": 0.924,
      "recent_avg_IP": 0.933,
      "last_start_IP": 0.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1696,
      "sample_weight": 0.652,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9856,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0343,
      "walk_factor": 1.0104,
      "homer_factor": 1.0022,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 27.9,
      "bb_percent": 9.9,
      "woba": 0.291,
      "xwoba": 0.286,
      "barrel_percent": 5.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 46.6,
      "whiff_percent": 28.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 241,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 40.2,
      "season_ERA": 3.098,
      "season_WHIP": 1.18,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 8.339,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6251,
        "prior_weight": 0.3749
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "489446",
      "report_date": "20260926",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 44,
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              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 18,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.71216371796498,
              "release_spin_rate": 1986.3610646709749,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 18,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.71216371796498,
                "release_spin_rate": 1986.3610646709749,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.7122,
              "release_spin_rate": 1986.3611,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0645,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.4608,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1696,
          "sample_weight": 0.652,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9856,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0343,
          "walk_factor": 1.0104,
          "homer_factor": 1.0022,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.005,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "489446",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9906,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9906,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0068,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0014,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0224,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 91,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -10 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260926_PIT@DET.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260926

20260926_PIT@DET

home

Justin Verlander

True

3.2

5.1

-4

9/5

0/1

3/6

Last 10 before this game (1 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 12.272727272727273,
      "WHIP": 2.181818181818182,
      "IP": 3.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 1,
      "role_avg_IP": 3.667,
      "recent_avg_IP": 3.667,
      "last_start_IP": 3.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0385,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9967,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0062,
      "walk_factor": 1.009,
      "homer_factor": 0.9936,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.1,
      "bb_percent": 10.1,
      "woba": 0.314,
      "xwoba": 0.308,
      "barrel_percent": 6.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.1,
      "whiff_percent": 26.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 676,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 1.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.1667,
        "prior_weight": 0.8333
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "434378",
      "report_date": "20260926",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 1,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 1,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 3.2,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 5.0,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 1.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 19.0,
            "Pitches": 80.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.2,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 5.0,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 1.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 19.0,
            "Pitches": 80.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 12.2727,
            "WHIP": 2.1818,
            "ER_per_IP": 1.36364,
            "H_per_IP": 1.63636,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.54545,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.27273,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.27273
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 1,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 3.2,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 5.0,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 1.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 19.0,
            "Pitches": 80.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.2,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 5.0,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 1.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 19.0,
            "Pitches": 80.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 12.2727,
            "WHIP": 2.1818,
            "ER_per_IP": 1.36364,
            "H_per_IP": 1.63636,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.54545,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.27273,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.27273
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 1,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 3.2,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 5.0,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 1.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 19.0,
            "Pitches": 80.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.2,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 5.0,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 1.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 19.0,
            "Pitches": 80.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 12.2727,
            "WHIP": 2.1818,
            "ER_per_IP": 1.36364,
            "H_per_IP": 1.63636,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.54545,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.27273,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.27273
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.585,
        "predicted_H": 4.308,
        "predicted_BB": 1.606,
        "predicted_SO": 3.255,
        "predicted_HR": 0.668,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.8975,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4993
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.7021,
      "form_weight": 0.2979,
      "form_reliability": 0.1667,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 1.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.1667,
        "prior_weight": 0.8333
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.0,
          "final": 4.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 2.585,
          "final": 4.9826,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 9.0,
          "form": 4.308,
          "final": 7.6021,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.606,
          "final": 0.4785,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 3.255,
          "final": 1.6718,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.668,
          "final": 0.9011,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.8975,
          "final": 5.8975,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4993,
          "final": 1.4993,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "insufficient_data"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 3.2,
        "ER": 5,
        "H": 6,
        "BB": 2,
        "SO": 1,
        "HR": 1,
        "ERA": 12.272727272727273,
        "WHIP": 2.181818181818182,
        "K9": 2.4545454545454546,
        "HR9": 2.4545454545454546,
        "games_pitched": 1,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 1,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 1,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-03-30T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.1093440035382907,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.0,
          "predicted_ER": 6.0,
          "predicted_H": 9.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 1.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 1.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.1667,
          "prior_weight": 0.8333
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 3.2,
          "predicted_ER": 6,
          "predicted_H": 9,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 1,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "434378",
      "player_name": "Justin Verlander",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "DET",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 6.0,
            "predicted_H": 9.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 1.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 6.0,
            "predicted_H": 9.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 3.2,
            "predicted_SO": 1.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 9.0,
              "after": 9.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.2,
              "delta": -0.8,
              "percent_delta": -0.2,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.2,
              "delta": -0.8,
              "percent_delta": -0.2,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 6.0,
            "predicted_H": 9.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 3.2,
            "predicted_R": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 9.0,
              "after": 9.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 3.2,
              "after": 3.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 2.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 2.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 9.0,
            "after": 9.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.2,
            "delta": -0.8,
            "percent_delta": -0.2,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 2.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 2.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.2,
            "delta": -0.8,
            "percent_delta": -0.2,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "DET",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 85,
        "win_pct": 0.4688,
        "runs_scored": 717.0,
        "runs_allowed": 645.0,
        "run_differential": 72.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.45,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4813,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0312,
        "offense_index": 0.998,
        "defense_index": 1.1139,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0064
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "PIT",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 81,
        "losses": 79,
        "win_pct": 0.5062,
        "runs_scored": 760.0,
        "runs_allowed": 733.0,
        "run_differential": 27.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1688,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.75,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5812,
        "offense_index": 1.0578,
        "defense_index": 0.9802,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0609
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0673,
        "offense_edge": -0.002,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0578,
        "defense_strength": 0.1139,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0198,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9984,
        "run_prevention": 1.0012,
        "strikeout": 0.9934
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "434378",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "434378",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 0.0,
            "k_percent": 23.1,
            "bb_percent": 10.1,
            "woba": 0.314,
            "xwoba": 0.308,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5616,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.7975,
            "whiff_percent": 26.5,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8982,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0823,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0857,
            "regression_edge": 0.1714,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.0857,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0889,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.1143,
            "whiff_edge": 0.1857,
            "bb_edge": -0.25,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": false,
            "pitcher_id": "434378",
            "reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0385,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9967,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0062,
          "walk_factor": 1.009,
          "homer_factor": 0.9936,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.006,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "434378",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9985,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9985,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.004,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9971,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0028,
            "adjusted": 1
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 3.2,
      "predicted_H": 9,
      "predicted_R": 6,
      "predicted_ER": 6,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 83,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 1 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260926_PIT@DET.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260926

20260926_STL@MIL

away

Quinn Mathews

True

6.0

5.0

-3

5/5

0/2

7/7

Last 10 before this game (8 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.6541353383458643,
      "WHIP": 1.37593984962406,
      "IP": 44.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 8,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.542,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.067,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1193,
      "sample_weight": 0.644,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9899,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9996,
      "walk_factor": 1.0052,
      "homer_factor": 0.943,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 20.5,
      "bb_percent": 9.5,
      "woba": 0.311,
      "xwoba": 0.299,
      "barrel_percent": 3.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.8,
      "whiff_percent": 26.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 218,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.6818181818181818,
        "last_10": 0.3181818181818182
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 8.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6154,
        "prior_weight": 0.3846
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "687273",
      "report_date": "20260926",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 8,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.1,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 25.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 26.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 124.0,
            "Pitches": 495.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 24.8,
            "Pitches": 99.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.3736,
            "WHIP": 1.1868,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.26374,
            "H_per_IP": 0.82418,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36264,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.85714,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0989
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 8,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 44.1,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 43.0,
            "BB": 18.0,
            "SO": 39.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 190.0,
            "Pitches": 786.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.25,
            "R": 2.25,
            "H": 5.375,
            "BB": 2.25,
            "SO": 4.875,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 23.75,
            "Pitches": 98.25
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6541,
            "WHIP": 1.3759,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.40602,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96992,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.40602,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.8797,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09023
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 8,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 44.1,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 43.0,
            "BB": 18.0,
            "SO": 39.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 190.0,
            "Pitches": 786.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.25,
            "R": 2.25,
            "H": 5.375,
            "BB": 2.25,
            "SO": 4.875,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 23.75,
            "Pitches": 98.25
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6541,
            "WHIP": 1.3759,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.40602,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96992,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.40602,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.8797,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09023
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.301,
        "predicted_H": 5.424,
        "predicted_BB": 2.241,
        "predicted_SO": 5.293,
        "predicted_HR": 0.69,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.4891,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2915
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5125,
      "form_weight": 0.4875,
      "form_reliability": 0.6154,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 8.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6154,
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      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.301,
          "final": 1.6342,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.424,
          "final": 5.2067,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.241,
          "final": 1.0925,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 5.293,
          "final": 6.1678,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.69,
          "final": 0.3364,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.4891,
          "final": 3.4891,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2915,
          "final": 1.2915,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 44.1,
        "ER": 18,
        "H": 43,
        "BB": 18,
        "SO": 39,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 3.6541353383458643,
        "WHIP": 1.37593984962406,
        "K9": 7.917293233082706,
        "HR9": 0.8120300751879699,
        "games_pitched": 8,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 8,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 8,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-20T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9053312511013861,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 8.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.6154,
          "prior_weight": 0.3846
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "687273",
      "player_name": "Quinn Mathews",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "STL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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          },
          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "STL",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 77,
        "losses": 83,
        "win_pct": 0.4813,
        "runs_scored": 714.0,
        "runs_allowed": 740.0,
        "run_differential": -26.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1625,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4625,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.625,
        "offense_index": 0.9955,
        "defense_index": 0.9692,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0,
          "run_differential": -19.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1058
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIL",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 101,
        "losses": 59,
        "win_pct": 0.6312,
        "runs_scored": 823.0,
        "runs_allowed": 612.0,
        "run_differential": 211.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.3188,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.1437,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.825,
        "offense_index": 1.1475,
        "defense_index": 1.1719,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.9,
          "run_differential": 16.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3783
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.4841,
        "offense_edge": -0.0045,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1475,
        "defense_strength": -0.0308,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1719,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.5
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9738,
        "run_prevention": 1.0509,
        "strikeout": 0.9737
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "687273",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "687273",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 161.0,
            "k_percent": 20.5,
            "bb_percent": 9.5,
            "woba": 0.311,
            "xwoba": 0.299,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.6,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 3.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 34.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.4522,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8025,
            "whiff_percent": 26.6,
            "swing_percent": 45.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8982,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.3101,
            "command_and_miss": -0.0464,
            "regression_edge": 0.3429,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.3429,
            "barrel_edge": 0.7556,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.4429,
            "whiff_edge": 0.2,
            "bb_edge": -0.1,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1333
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "687273",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 99,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 99,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.48356848439896,
              "release_spin_rate": 2148.8854214067615,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 99,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.48356848439896,
                "release_spin_rate": 2148.8854214067615,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.4836,
              "release_spin_rate": 2148.8854,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1333,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.9522,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1193,
          "sample_weight": 0.644,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9899,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9996,
          "walk_factor": 1.0052,
          "homer_factor": 0.943,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.012,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "687273",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9935,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9935,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0033,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9633,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9997,
            "adjusted": 5
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 100,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 8 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260926_STL@MIL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260926

20260926_STL@MIL

home

Dustin May

True

4.1

3.0

-4

1/3

2/1

3/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "WHIP": 1.3177570093457944,
      "IP": 142.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 30,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.756,
      "recent_avg_IP": 3.667,
      "last_start_IP": 2.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1896,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0161,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9926,
      "walk_factor": 0.98,
      "homer_factor": 1.0554,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.9,
      "bb_percent": 8.1,
      "woba": 0.317,
      "xwoba": 0.324,
      "barrel_percent": 7.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 44.4,
      "whiff_percent": 23.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 314,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669160",
      "report_date": "20260926",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 30,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.333,
      "windows": {
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          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 18.1,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 84.0,
            "Pitches": 343.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.2,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 16.8,
            "Pitches": 68.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.4,
            "WHIP": 1.4727,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.6,
            "H_per_IP": 1.09091,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38182,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.14545,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.21818
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 38.2,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 35.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 36.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 167.0,
            "Pitches": 660.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 2.1,
            "R": 2.1,
            "H": 3.5,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 16.7,
            "Pitches": 66.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.8879,
            "WHIP": 1.319,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5431,
            "H_per_IP": 0.90517,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.41379,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.93103,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15517
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 30,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 142.2,
            "ER": 74.0,
            "R": 77.0,
            "H": 139.0,
            "BB": 49.0,
            "SO": 139.0,
            "HR": 13.0,
            "BF": 608.0,
            "Pitches": 2341.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.4667,
            "R": 2.5667,
            "H": 4.6333,
            "BB": 1.6333,
            "SO": 4.6333,
            "HR": 0.4333,
            "BF": 20.2667,
            "Pitches": 78.0333
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.6682,
            "WHIP": 1.3178,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.51869,
            "H_per_IP": 0.9743,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34346,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.9743,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09112
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.245,
        "predicted_H": 4.033,
        "predicted_BB": 1.551,
        "predicted_SO": 4.121,
        "predicted_HR": 0.676,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.0098,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3843
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4104,
      "form_weight": 0.5896,
      "form_reliability": 0.8571,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 4.0,
          "final": 4.1,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.245,
          "final": 1.7341,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 4.033,
          "final": 2.7883,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.551,
          "final": 1.7353,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.121,
          "final": 3.661,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.676,
          "final": 0.3986,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.0098,
          "final": 5.0098,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3843,
          "final": 1.3843,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 38.2,
        "ER": 21,
        "H": 35,
        "BB": 16,
        "SO": 36,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 4.887931034482759,
        "WHIP": 1.3189655172413794,
        "K9": 8.379310344827587,
        "HR9": 1.396551724137931,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-22T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0427089086072199,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 1.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_size": 30.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8571,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669160",
      "player_name": "Dustin May",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.3333,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.1,
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            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0538,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
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        ],
        "summary": {
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            "before": 4.3333,
            "after": 4.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0538,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIL",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 101,
        "losses": 59,
        "win_pct": 0.6312,
        "runs_scored": 823.0,
        "runs_allowed": 612.0,
        "run_differential": 211.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.3188,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.1437,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.825,
        "offense_index": 1.1475,
        "defense_index": 1.1719,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.9,
          "run_differential": 16.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3783
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "STL",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 77,
        "losses": 83,
        "win_pct": 0.4813,
        "runs_scored": 714.0,
        "runs_allowed": 740.0,
        "run_differential": -26.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1625,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4625,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.625,
        "offense_index": 0.9955,
        "defense_index": 0.9692,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0,
          "run_differential": -19.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1058
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.4841,
        "offense_edge": 0.1475,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0045,
        "defense_strength": 0.1719,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0308,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.5
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0247,
        "run_prevention": 0.9579,
        "strikeout": 1.0149
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669160",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669160",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 581.0,
            "k_percent": 22.9,
            "bb_percent": 8.1,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.324,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 44.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.2718,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.6285,
            "whiff_percent": 23.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8982,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.3243,
            "command_and_miss": -0.0021,
            "regression_edge": -0.2,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.3714,
            "barrel_edge": -0.0889,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.9286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3143,
            "bb_edge": 0.25,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1569
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669160",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 59,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 59,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.66624874445156,
              "release_spin_rate": 2536.673286155761,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 59,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.66624874445156,
                "release_spin_rate": 2536.673286155761,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.6662,
              "release_spin_rate": 2536.6733,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1569,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.1208,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1896,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0161,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9926,
          "walk_factor": 0.98,
          "homer_factor": 1.0554,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.007,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "669160",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0161,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0161,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.98,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0554,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9926,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.1,
      "predicted_H": 1,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 17,
      "Pitches": 78,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260926_STL@MIL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260926

20260926_TB@PHI

away

Griffin Jax

True

5.0

3.0

-6

1/2

0/0

2/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.375,
      "WHIP": 1.152439024390244,
      "IP": 109.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 32,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.561,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.533,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0237,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.998,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0486,
      "walk_factor": 0.974,
      "homer_factor": 1.0464,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 25.6,
      "bb_percent": 7.8,
      "woba": 0.299,
      "xwoba": 0.32,
      "barrel_percent": 8.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.7,
      "whiff_percent": 30.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 271,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.0,
      "season_IP": 109.1,
      "season_ERA": 3.375,
      "season_WHIP": 1.152,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 32.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8649,
        "prior_weight": 0.1351
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "643377",
      "report_date": "20260926",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 32,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 22.2,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 91.0,
            "Pitches": 352.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 3.6,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 18.2,
            "Pitches": 70.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1765,
            "WHIP": 1.0147,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.35294,
            "H_per_IP": 0.79412,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.22059,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.01471,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08824
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 49.1,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 24.0,
            "H": 39.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 57.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 201.0,
            "Pitches": 763.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.1,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 3.9,
            "BB": 1.5,
            "SO": 5.7,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 20.1,
            "Pitches": 76.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8311,
            "WHIP": 1.0946,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42568,
            "H_per_IP": 0.79054,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30405,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.15541,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08108
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 32,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 109.1,
            "ER": 41.0,
            "R": 51.0,
            "H": 92.0,
            "BB": 34.0,
            "SO": 115.0,
            "HR": 15.0,
            "BF": 444.0,
            "Pitches": 1656.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.1,
            "ER": 1.2812,
            "R": 1.5938,
            "H": 2.875,
            "BB": 1.0625,
            "SO": 3.5938,
            "HR": 0.4688,
            "BF": 13.875,
            "Pitches": 51.75
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.375,
            "WHIP": 1.1524,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.375,
            "H_per_IP": 0.84146,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31098,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.05183,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1372
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.835,
        "predicted_H": 3.788,
        "predicted_BB": 1.297,
        "predicted_SO": 4.825,
        "predicted_HR": 0.471,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.6043,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1097
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4071,
      "form_weight": 0.5929,
      "form_reliability": 0.8649,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 32.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8649,
        "prior_weight": 0.1351
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.835,
          "final": 1.088,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 3.788,
          "final": 2.6531,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.297,
          "final": 0.769,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.825,
          "final": 3.675,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.471,
          "final": 0.2793,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.6043,
          "final": 3.6043,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1097,
          "final": 1.1097,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 49.1,
        "ER": 21,
        "H": 39,
        "BB": 15,
        "SO": 57,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 3.8310810810810816,
        "WHIP": 1.0945945945945947,
        "K9": 10.39864864864865,
        "HR9": 0.7297297297297298,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 2,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-20T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9182040157833614,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 0.0,
          "predicted_H": 1.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 32.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8649,
          "prior_weight": 0.1351
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "643377",
      "player_name": "Griffin Jax",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TB",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 0.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TB",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 97,
        "losses": 63,
        "win_pct": 0.6062,
        "runs_scored": 721.0,
        "runs_allowed": 642.0,
        "run_differential": 79.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.4938,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5062,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0125,
        "offense_index": 1.0053,
        "defense_index": 1.1172,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.8,
          "run_differential": 9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1859
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 87,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.5437,
        "runs_scored": 705.0,
        "runs_allowed": 683.0,
        "run_differential": 22.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1375,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4062,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2687,
        "offense_index": 0.9829,
        "defense_index": 1.0501,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": -9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.019
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1669,
        "offense_edge": 0.0053,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0171,
        "defense_strength": 0.1172,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0501,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0109,
        "run_prevention": 0.9772,
        "strikeout": 1.0064
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "643377",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "643377",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 407.0,
            "k_percent": 25.6,
            "bb_percent": 7.8,
            "woba": 0.299,
            "xwoba": 0.32,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 39.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.7857,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.1374,
            "whiff_percent": 30.1,
            "swing_percent": 48.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8982,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1166,
            "command_and_miss": 0.5414,
            "regression_edge": -0.6,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.2571,
            "barrel_edge": -0.3556,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.2571,
            "whiff_edge": 0.7,
            "bb_edge": 0.325,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1023
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "643377",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 76,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 76,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 91.69040072946703,
              "release_spin_rate": 2573.7540952383274,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 76,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 91.69040072946703,
                "release_spin_rate": 2573.7540952383274,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.6904,
              "release_spin_rate": 2573.7541,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1023,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.7305,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0237,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.998,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0486,
          "walk_factor": 0.974,
          "homer_factor": 1.0464,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.021,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "643377",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.998,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.998,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.974,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0464,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0486,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 1,
      "predicted_R": 0,
      "predicted_ER": 0,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 2,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 16,
      "Pitches": 66,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -6 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260926_TB@PHI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260926

20260926_TB@PHI

home

Aaron Nola

True

6.0

1.0

-15

4/4

3/0

5/0

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.54302103250478,
      "WHIP": 1.3307839388145315,
      "IP": 174.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 32,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.448,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.267,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0232,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.998,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0234,
      "walk_factor": 0.978,
      "homer_factor": 1.0478,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 24.0,
      "bb_percent": 8.0,
      "woba": 0.341,
      "xwoba": 0.312,
      "barrel_percent": 9.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.9,
      "whiff_percent": 27.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 32,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 32.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8649,
        "prior_weight": 0.1351
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "605400",
      "report_date": "20260926",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 32,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 31.1,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 24.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 121.0,
            "Pitches": 467.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 24.2,
            "Pitches": 93.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.2979,
            "WHIP": 1.0213,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.25532,
            "H_per_IP": 0.70213,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31915,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.76596,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12766
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 60.1,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 47.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 61.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 239.0,
            "Pitches": 950.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.7,
            "R": 1.7,
            "H": 4.7,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 6.1,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 23.9,
            "Pitches": 95.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.5359,
            "WHIP": 1.1105,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.28177,
            "H_per_IP": 0.77901,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33149,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.01105,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16575
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 32,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 174.1,
            "ER": 88.0,
            "R": 90.0,
            "H": 173.0,
            "BB": 59.0,
            "SO": 177.0,
            "HR": 36.0,
            "BF": 737.0,
            "Pitches": 2925.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.75,
            "R": 2.8125,
            "H": 5.4062,
            "BB": 1.8438,
            "SO": 5.5312,
            "HR": 1.125,
            "BF": 23.0312,
            "Pitches": 91.4062
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.543,
            "WHIP": 1.3308,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.50478,
            "H_per_IP": 0.99235,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33843,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0153,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.2065
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.053,
        "predicted_H": 4.893,
        "predicted_BB": 2.011,
        "predicted_SO": 5.45,
        "predicted_HR": 0.936,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.0723,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.148
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4071,
      "form_weight": 0.5929,
      "form_reliability": 0.8649,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 32.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8649,
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      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.053,
          "final": 1.6243,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.893,
          "final": 4.5295,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.011,
          "final": 2.4136,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.45,
          "final": 4.8597,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.936,
          "final": 0.555,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.0723,
          "final": 3.0723,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.148,
          "final": 1.148,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 60.1,
        "ER": 17,
        "H": 47,
        "BB": 20,
        "SO": 61,
        "HR": 10,
        "ERA": 2.535911602209945,
        "WHIP": 1.110497237569061,
        "K9": 9.099447513812155,
        "HR9": 1.4917127071823206,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-23T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7728950154847204,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 32.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8649,
          "prior_weight": 0.1351
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "605400",
      "player_name": "Aaron Nola",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PHI",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.25,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.25,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.25,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.25,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 87,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.5437,
        "runs_scored": 705.0,
        "runs_allowed": 683.0,
        "run_differential": 22.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1375,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4062,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2687,
        "offense_index": 0.9829,
        "defense_index": 1.0501,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": -9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.019
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TB",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 97,
        "losses": 63,
        "win_pct": 0.6062,
        "runs_scored": 721.0,
        "runs_allowed": 642.0,
        "run_differential": 79.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.4938,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5062,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0125,
        "offense_index": 1.0053,
        "defense_index": 1.1172,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.8,
          "run_differential": 9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1859
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1669,
        "offense_edge": -0.0171,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0053,
        "defense_strength": 0.0501,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1172,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9946,
        "run_prevention": 1.0042,
        "strikeout": 0.9946
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "605400",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "605400",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 687.0,
            "k_percent": 24.0,
            "bb_percent": 8.0,
            "woba": 0.341,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 39.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.7384,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.2368,
            "whiff_percent": 27.3,
            "swing_percent": 46.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8982,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.2089,
            "command_and_miss": 0.2886,
            "regression_edge": 0.8286,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.0286,
            "barrel_edge": -0.4444,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.2857,
            "whiff_edge": 0.3,
            "bb_edge": 0.275,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.2211
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "605400",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 94,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 94,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 85.9161751557338,
              "release_spin_rate": 2297.230473518228,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 94,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 85.9161751557338,
                "release_spin_rate": 2297.230473518228,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 85.9162,
              "release_spin_rate": 2297.2305,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.2211,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.5792,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0232,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.998,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0234,
          "walk_factor": 0.978,
          "homer_factor": 1.0478,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.029,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "605400",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.998,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.998,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.978,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0478,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0234,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 112,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -15 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260926_TB@PHI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260926

20260926_TEX@MIN

away

Nathan Eovaldi

True

5.0

4.1

-2

-3

4/4

1/2

7/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.266509433962264,
      "WHIP": 1.2099056603773584,
      "IP": 141.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.03,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.467,
      "last_start_IP": 5.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0423,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9964,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0354,
      "walk_factor": 0.928,
      "homer_factor": 1.0505,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.7,
      "bb_percent": 5.5,
      "woba": 0.322,
      "xwoba": 0.319,
      "barrel_percent": 8.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.5,
      "whiff_percent": 29.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 184,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "543135",
      "report_date": "20260926",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 14.0,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 6.0,
            "H": 14.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 6.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 62.0,
            "Pitches": 228.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.2,
            "ER": 1.2,
            "R": 1.2,
            "H": 2.8,
            "BB": 0.6,
            "SO": 1.2,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 12.4,
            "Pitches": 45.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8571,
            "WHIP": 1.2143,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21429,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 41.0,
            "ER": 23.0,
            "R": 24.0,
            "H": 45.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 40.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 181.0,
            "Pitches": 678.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 2.3,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 4.5,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 18.1,
            "Pitches": 67.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.0488,
            "WHIP": 1.3415,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.56098,
            "H_per_IP": 1.09756,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2439,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.97561,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17073
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 141.1,
            "ER": 67.0,
            "R": 70.0,
            "H": 138.0,
            "BB": 33.0,
            "SO": 141.0,
            "HR": 24.0,
            "BF": 595.0,
            "Pitches": 2149.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.5769,
            "R": 2.6923,
            "H": 5.3077,
            "BB": 1.2692,
            "SO": 5.4231,
            "HR": 0.9231,
            "BF": 22.8846,
            "Pitches": 82.6538
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2665,
            "WHIP": 1.2099,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.47406,
            "H_per_IP": 0.97642,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23349,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.99764,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16981
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.95,
        "predicted_H": 4.077,
        "predicted_BB": 1.009,
        "predicted_SO": 3.057,
        "predicted_HR": 0.409,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.399,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2749
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4181,
      "form_weight": 0.5819,
      "form_reliability": 0.8387,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 4.0,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.95,
          "final": 2.8072,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.077,
          "final": 4.0448,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.009,
          "final": 1.0052,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 3.057,
          "final": 4.7058,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.409,
          "final": 1.0743,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.399,
          "final": 4.399,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2749,
          "final": 1.2749,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 41.0,
        "ER": 23,
        "H": 45,
        "BB": 10,
        "SO": 40,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 5.048780487804878,
        "WHIP": 1.3414634146341464,
        "K9": 8.78048780487805,
        "HR9": 1.5365853658536586,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-22T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0613669195407773,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 26.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8387,
          "prior_weight": 0.1613
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 2
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "543135",
      "player_name": "Nathan Eovaldi",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TEX",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          ],
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          "has_material_change": true,
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TEX",
        "games": 160,
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        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.4938,
        "runs_scored": 663.0,
        "runs_allowed": 711.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3,
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      "player_factors": {
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      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "543135",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "543135",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.7,
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            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.3566,
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          "league_medians": {
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            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
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            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8982,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1575,
            "command_and_miss": 0.5143,
            "regression_edge": 0.0857,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.2286,
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            "hard_hit_edge": -0.5143,
            "whiff_edge": 0.6429,
            "bb_edge": 0.9,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1466
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "543135",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 67,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 67,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.24640997938972,
              "release_spin_rate": 1886.4896008396245,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 67,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.24640997938972,
                "release_spin_rate": 1886.4896008396245,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.2464,
              "release_spin_rate": 1886.4896,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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            },
            "components": {
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              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0423,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
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          "strikeout_factor": 1.0354,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.003,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "543135",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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            "factor": 0.9964,
            "adjusted": 3
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          "predicted_H": {
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          "predicted_BB": {
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          "predicted_HR": {
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            "factor": 1.0505,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_SO": {
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            "adjusted": 6
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 91,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260926_TEX@MIN.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260926

20260926_TEX@MIN

home

Bailey Ober

True

5.0

3/10

2/1

1/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "barrel_percent": 9.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.0,
      "whiff_percent": 19.9
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    "espn_rank": {
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      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
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    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
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      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
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      "effective_weights": {
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      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
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          "totals": {
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            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 20.0,
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.26471,
            "H_per_IP": 0.88235,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.44118,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.88235,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08824
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        },
        "last_10": {
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          "totals": {
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            "R": 24.0,
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            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 33.0,
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            "Pitches": 819.0
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          "per_game": {
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            "HR": 0.6,
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            "H_per_IP": 1.06122,
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            "SO_per_IP": 0.67347,
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        },
        "season": {
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            "SO": 91.0,
            "HR": 19.0,
            "BF": 535.0,
            "Pitches": 2013.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.4583,
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            "H": 5.125,
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            "Pitches": 83.875
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            "SO_per_IP": 0.72222,
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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        "predicted_ER": 1.946,
        "predicted_H": 4.769,
        "predicted_BB": 1.803,
        "predicted_SO": 3.967,
        "predicted_HR": 0.586,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.5521,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3328
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "prior_size": 5.0,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "final": 2.7124,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 0.586,
          "final": 0.3382,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "final": 3.5521,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
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          "form": 1.3328,
          "final": 1.3328,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 49.0,
        "ER": 22,
        "H": 52,
        "BB": 15,
        "SO": 33,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 4.040816326530612,
        "WHIP": 1.3673469387755102,
        "K9": 6.061224489795919,
        "HR9": 1.1020408163265305,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-20T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9486180395009566,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 1.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 24.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8276,
          "prior_weight": 0.1724
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "641927",
      "player_name": "Bailey Ober",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIN",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 1.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 1.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIN",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 76,
        "losses": 84,
        "win_pct": 0.475,
        "runs_scored": 731.0,
        "runs_allowed": 787.0,
        "run_differential": -56.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.35,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5687,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9188,
        "offense_index": 1.0187,
        "defense_index": 0.9118,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.4,
          "run_differential": 11.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0292
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TEX",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 79,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.4938,
        "runs_scored": 663.0,
        "runs_allowed": 711.0,
        "run_differential": -48.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1437,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4437,
        "offense_index": 0.9239,
        "defense_index": 1.0092,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0421
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0129,
        "offense_edge": 0.0187,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0761,
        "defense_strength": -0.0882,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0092,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0009,
        "run_prevention": 0.996,
        "strikeout": 1.0065
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "641927",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "641927",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 497.0,
            "k_percent": 17.0,
            "bb_percent": 6.7,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.325,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.8076,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9223,
            "whiff_percent": 19.9,
            "swing_percent": 49.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8982,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1995,
            "command_and_miss": -0.4664,
            "regression_edge": -0.2571,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.4,
            "barrel_edge": -0.5333,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.1286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.7571,
            "bb_edge": 0.6,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.28
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "641927",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 86,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 86,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 83.59642061883363,
              "release_spin_rate": 2144.642798259914,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 86,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 83.59642061883363,
                "release_spin_rate": 2144.642798259914,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 83.5964,
              "release_spin_rate": 2144.6428,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.28,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -2.0,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2811,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0239,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9411,
          "walk_factor": 0.952,
          "homer_factor": 1.0495,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.009,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "641927",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0239,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0239,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.952,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0495,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9411,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 1,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 80,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +5; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 7",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +7."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260926_TEX@MIN.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260927

20260927_ARI@SD

away

Michael Soroka

True

5.1

4.2

-2

3/3

3/2

5/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.31437125748503,
      "WHIP": 1.0868263473053892,
      "IP": 111.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 21,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.367,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.067,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.046,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9961,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0006,
      "walk_factor": 0.936,
      "homer_factor": 0.9931,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 24.2,
      "bb_percent": 5.9,
      "woba": 0.282,
      "xwoba": 0.311,
      "barrel_percent": 8.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.9,
      "whiff_percent": 23.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 72,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 21.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8077,
        "prior_weight": 0.1923
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "647336",
      "report_date": "20260927",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 21,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.0,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 19.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 27.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 103.0,
            "Pitches": 395.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 3.8,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 5.4,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 20.6,
            "Pitches": 79.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.68,
            "WHIP": 1.04,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.52,
            "H_per_IP": 0.76,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.08,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 50.1,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 35.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 50.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 199.0,
            "Pitches": 774.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.9,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 3.5,
            "BB": 1.3,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 19.9,
            "Pitches": 77.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.3974,
            "WHIP": 0.9536,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.37748,
            "H_per_IP": 0.69536,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25828,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.99338,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09934
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 21,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 111.1,
            "ER": 41.0,
            "R": 42.0,
            "H": 94.0,
            "BB": 27.0,
            "SO": 110.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 454.0,
            "Pitches": 1762.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.9524,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.4762,
            "BB": 1.2857,
            "SO": 5.2381,
            "HR": 0.4286,
            "BF": 21.619,
            "Pitches": 83.9048
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.3144,
            "WHIP": 1.0868,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.36826,
            "H_per_IP": 0.84431,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.24251,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.98802,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08084
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.322,
        "predicted_H": 4.086,
        "predicted_BB": 1.468,
        "predicted_SO": 5.184,
        "predicted_HR": 0.58,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.0841,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0853
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4312,
      "form_weight": 0.5688,
      "form_reliability": 0.8077,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 21.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8077,
        "prior_weight": 0.1923
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.322,
          "final": 2.6144,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-22T00:00:00"
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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          "changed_metrics": [
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          },
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          },
          "has_material_change": true,
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "wins": 86,
        "losses": 75,
        "win_pct": 0.5342,
        "runs_scored": 735.0,
        "runs_allowed": 721.0,
        "run_differential": 14.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.087,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5652,
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.205,
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          "run_differential": 19.0
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": 0.0201,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0105,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9961,
        "run_prevention": 1.0038,
        "strikeout": 0.9976
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "647336",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "647336",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 406.0,
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.8,
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            "avg_best_speed": 76.47,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.368,
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          "league_medians": {
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            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.6176,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
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          "components": {
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            "regression_edge": -0.8286,
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            "pitch_design_score": -0.1158
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "647336",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 75,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 75,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.79524232123826,
              "release_spin_rate": 2598.719346360736,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            },
            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 75,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.79524232123826,
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                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.7952,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
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              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.046,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9961,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0006,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.029,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "647336",
            "espn_rank": null
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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            "factor": 0.9961,
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9961,
            "adjusted": 4
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.936,
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          "predicted_HR": {
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            "factor": 0.9931,
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          "predicted_SO": {
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            "factor": 1.0006,
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 100,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260927_ARI@SD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260927

20260927_ARI@SD

home

Randy Vásquez

True

5.0

6.0

5/3

1/0

3/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 4.00990099009901,
      "WHIP": 1.2995049504950495,
      "IP": 134.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 31,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.045,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.533,
      "last_start_IP": 4.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
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      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0627,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9251,
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      "homer_factor": 1.1197,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 15.0,
      "bb_percent": 6.5,
      "woba": 0.327,
      "xwoba": 0.358,
      "barrel_percent": 9.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 43.7,
      "whiff_percent": 19.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": null,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 31.0,
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        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "681190",
      "report_date": "20260927",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 31,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 11.2,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 5.0,
            "H": 14.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 9.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 50.0,
            "Pitches": 187.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.1,
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            "R": 1.0,
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          "rates": {
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "H_per_IP": 1.2,
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        },
        "last_10": {
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        },
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          "per_game": {
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      "pitching": {
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      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-19T00:00:00"
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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      },
      {
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    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
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          "changed_metrics": [
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        {
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          "step": "current_json_final",
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          "stats": {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "changed_metrics": [
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "team": {
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        "win_pct": 0.559,
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        "run_differential": 36.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2236,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4286,
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          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
          "run_differential": 19.0
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "wins": 86,
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        "win_pct": 0.5342,
        "runs_scored": 735.0,
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          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1,
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        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0748
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": -0.0105,
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      "player_factors": {
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        "strikeout": 1.0016
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "681190",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "681190",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "league_medians": {
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          "components": {
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            "xwoba_edge": -1.3429,
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "681190",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 43,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 43,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.7399,
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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          "predicted_H": {
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          "predicted_HR": {
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    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 88,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260927_ARI@SD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260927

20260927_ATL@MIA

away

JR Ritchie

True

4.2

5.2

6/7

2/2

4/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.788177339901478,
      "WHIP": 1.463054187192118,
      "IP": 67.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 16,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.933,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.733,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3801,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0323,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.992,
      "walk_factor": 1.092,
      "homer_factor": 1.0755,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.0,
      "bb_percent": 13.7,
      "woba": 0.342,
      "xwoba": 0.338,
      "barrel_percent": 9.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.6,
      "whiff_percent": 23.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 487,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 16.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7619,
        "prior_weight": 0.2381
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "702275",
      "report_date": "20260927",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 16,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 18.1,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 19.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 84.0,
            "Pitches": 339.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.2,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 3.8,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 16.8,
            "Pitches": 67.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.8909,
            "WHIP": 1.6364,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.65455,
            "H_per_IP": 1.03636,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.6,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.2,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.27273
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 37.0,
            "ER": 23.0,
            "R": 24.0,
            "H": 35.0,
            "BB": 23.0,
            "SO": 40.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 168.0,
            "Pitches": 669.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.2,
            "ER": 2.3,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 3.5,
            "BB": 2.3,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 16.8,
            "Pitches": 66.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.5946,
            "WHIP": 1.5676,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.62162,
            "H_per_IP": 0.94595,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.62162,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.08108,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.21622
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 16,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 67.2,
            "ER": 36.0,
            "R": 39.0,
            "H": 58.0,
            "BB": 41.0,
            "SO": 66.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 300.0,
            "Pitches": 1191.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 2.25,
            "R": 2.4375,
            "H": 3.625,
            "BB": 2.5625,
            "SO": 4.125,
            "HR": 0.75,
            "BF": 18.75,
            "Pitches": 74.4375
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.7882,
            "WHIP": 1.4631,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.53202,
            "H_per_IP": 0.85714,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.60591,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.97537,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17734
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.377,
        "predicted_H": 3.896,
        "predicted_BB": 2.22,
        "predicted_SO": 4.292,
        "predicted_HR": 0.856,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.3398,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.5266
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4506,
      "form_weight": 0.5494,
      "form_reliability": 0.7619,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 16.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7619,
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      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 4.0,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.377,
          "final": 2.6577,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 3.896,
          "final": 4.8441,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.22,
          "final": 2.1209,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.292,
          "final": 4.1604,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.856,
          "final": 0.4703,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.3398,
          "final": 5.3398,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.5266,
          "final": 1.5266,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 37.0,
        "ER": 23,
        "H": 35,
        "BB": 23,
        "SO": 40,
        "HR": 8,
        "ERA": 5.594594594594595,
        "WHIP": 1.5675675675675675,
        "K9": 9.72972972972973,
        "HR9": 1.945945945945946,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-22T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.1292898368264277,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 16.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7619,
          "prior_weight": 0.2381
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "702275",
      "player_name": "JR Ritchie",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ATL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
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          {
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          },
          {
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          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "ATL",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 94,
        "losses": 67,
        "win_pct": 0.5839,
        "runs_scored": 739.0,
        "runs_allowed": 621.0,
        "run_differential": 118.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.7329,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5901,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8571,
        "offense_index": 1.0256,
        "defense_index": 1.1603,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
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          "wins": 6,
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          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
          "run_differential": 6.0
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "runs_scored": 710.0,
        "runs_allowed": 709.0,
        "run_differential": 1.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0062,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4099,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4037,
        "offense_index": 0.9854,
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        "current_streak": "L1",
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          "win_pct": 0.5,
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          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0071
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2035,
        "offense_edge": 0.0256,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0146,
        "defense_strength": 0.1603,
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0135,
        "run_prevention": 0.9715,
        "strikeout": 1.0073
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "702275",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "702275",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 276.0,
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.6,
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            "avg_best_speed": 79.4259,
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            "whiff_percent": 23.8,
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          "league_medians": {
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            "bb_percent": 9.1,
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.6176,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
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          },
          "components": {
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            "hard_hit_edge": -0.2429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2,
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            "pitch_design_score": -0.0434
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "702275",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 62,
            "primary_pitch": {
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              "pitches": 62,
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              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.0894,
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              "velocity_edge": -0.3098,
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              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3801,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0323,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.992,
          "walk_factor": 1.092,
          "homer_factor": 1.0755,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.004,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "702275",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0323,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0323,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.092,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0755,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.992,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 95,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260927_ATL@MIA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260927

20260927_ATL@MIA

home

Janson Junk

True

4.2

-2

3/3

0/1

3/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "IP": 119.0,
      "games_started": null,
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      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
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      "k_percent": 16.6,
      "bb_percent": 6.3,
      "woba": 0.322,
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      "barrel_percent": 7.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.5,
      "whiff_percent": 15.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 220,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
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      "effective_weights": {
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      "shrinkage": {
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      },
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      "player_id": "676083",
      "report_date": "20260927",
      "season_year": 2026,
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      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
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          "totals": {
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            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 16.0,
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            "BF": 88.0,
            "Pitches": 356.0
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          "per_game": {
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            "H": 4.4,
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            "SO": 3.2,
            "HR": 0.4,
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            "Pitches": 71.2
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            "WHIP": 1.3548,
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            "H_per_IP": 1.06452,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.29032,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.77419,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09677
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 40.1,
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            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 41.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 168.0,
            "Pitches": 649.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 1.7,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 4.1,
            "BB": 1.0,
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            "HR": 0.3,
            "BF": 16.8,
            "Pitches": 64.9
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.2645,
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            "H_per_IP": 1.01653,
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            "SO_per_IP": 0.57025,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07438
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        },
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          "totals": {
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            "R": 62.0,
            "H": 124.0,
            "BB": 32.0,
            "SO": 84.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.28,
            "R": 2.48,
            "H": 4.96,
            "BB": 1.28,
            "SO": 3.36,
            "HR": 0.56,
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            "Pitches": 76.68
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.3109,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.47899,
            "H_per_IP": 1.04202,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26891,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.70588,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11765
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.1,
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        "predicted_H": 4.363,
        "predicted_BB": 1.221,
        "predicted_SO": 3.084,
        "predicted_HR": 0.432,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.3902,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3225
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 2.06,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
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          "final": 3.79,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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        "predicted_SO": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
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    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "H": 0,
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        "2B": 0,
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        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
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        "hot_streak": false,
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        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
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        "ER": 17,
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        "BB": 10,
        "SO": 23,
        "HR": 3,
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        "HR9": 0.6694214876033058,
        "games_pitched": 10,
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      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-22T00:00:00"
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    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
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          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
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          "predicted_HR": 2.0
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "676083",
      "player_name": "Janson Junk",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
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          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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          "summary": {
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      "total_change": {
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        "changed_metrics": [
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          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
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                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.9922,
              "release_spin_rate": 2229.3701,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1048,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.7487,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2274,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0193,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.912,
          "walk_factor": 0.944,
          "homer_factor": 1.005,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.005,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "676083",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0193,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0193,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.944,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.005,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.912,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 17,
      "Pitches": 68,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260927_ATL@MIA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260927

20260927_CHC@BOS

away

Shota Imanaga

True

5.2

1.0

-14

2/1

3/0

5/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.738461538461538,
      "WHIP": 1.096153846153846,
      "IP": 173.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 31,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.591,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.6,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1919,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9837,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0389,
      "walk_factor": 0.924,
      "homer_factor": 1.0296,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 24.4,
      "bb_percent": 5.3,
      "woba": 0.308,
      "xwoba": 0.301,
      "barrel_percent": 9.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.8,
      "whiff_percent": 29.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 81,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "684007",
      "report_date": "20260927",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 31,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.0,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 27.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 110.0,
            "Pitches": 470.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 0.6,
            "SO": 5.4,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 94.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.5357,
            "WHIP": 0.9643,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.39286,
            "H_per_IP": 0.85714,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.10714,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.96429,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14286
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 52.1,
            "ER": 22.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 49.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 58.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 215.0,
            "Pitches": 914.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.3,
            "H": 4.9,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 5.8,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 21.5,
            "Pitches": 91.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7834,
            "WHIP": 1.0892,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42038,
            "H_per_IP": 0.93631,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.15287,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.10828,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.2293
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 31,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 173.1,
            "ER": 72.0,
            "R": 74.0,
            "H": 153.0,
            "BB": 37.0,
            "SO": 171.0,
            "HR": 34.0,
            "BF": 702.0,
            "Pitches": 2798.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.3226,
            "R": 2.3871,
            "H": 4.9355,
            "BB": 1.1935,
            "SO": 5.5161,
            "HR": 1.0968,
            "BF": 22.6452,
            "Pitches": 90.2581
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7385,
            "WHIP": 1.0962,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.41538,
            "H_per_IP": 0.88269,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21346,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.98654,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.19615
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.347,
        "predicted_H": 5.026,
        "predicted_BB": 0.986,
        "predicted_SO": 5.609,
        "predicted_HR": 0.996,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.795,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.08
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4087,
      "form_weight": 0.5913,
      "form_reliability": 0.8611,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.347,
          "final": 1.7965,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 5.026,
          "final": 3.7893,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 0.986,
          "final": 1.8091,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 5.609,
          "final": 4.1341,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.996,
          "final": 0.5889,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.795,
          "final": 3.795,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.08,
          "final": 1.08,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 52.1,
        "ER": 22,
        "H": 49,
        "BB": 8,
        "SO": 58,
        "HR": 12,
        "ERA": 3.78343949044586,
        "WHIP": 1.089171974522293,
        "K9": 9.97452229299363,
        "HR9": 2.0636942675159236,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-22T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9135749977835633,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 31.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8611,
          "prior_weight": 0.1389
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 2,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "684007",
      "player_name": "Shota Imanaga",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHC",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 4.0,
              "percent_delta": 2.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "delta": 4.0,
              "percent_delta": 2.0,
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            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.2,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.1667,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.1667,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            "percent_delta": null,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
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            "delta": 3.0,
            "percent_delta": 1.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
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          "biggest_boost": {
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          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CHC",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 88,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.5466,
        "runs_scored": 844.0,
        "runs_allowed": 701.0,
        "run_differential": 143.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8882,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.2422,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.354,
        "offense_index": 1.1713,
        "defense_index": 1.0279,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1138
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "BOS",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 87,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.5404,
        "runs_scored": 687.0,
        "runs_allowed": 605.0,
        "run_differential": 82.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5093,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2671,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7578,
        "offense_index": 0.9534,
        "defense_index": 1.191,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 2.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.6,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0969
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0169,
        "offense_edge": 0.1713,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0466,
        "defense_strength": 0.0279,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.191,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0034,
        "run_prevention": 0.9889,
        "strikeout": 1.0042
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "684007",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "684007",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 682.0,
            "k_percent": 24.4,
            "bb_percent": 5.3,
            "woba": 0.308,
            "xwoba": 0.301,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 36.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.3483,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.819,
            "whiff_percent": 29.6,
            "swing_percent": 51.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
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            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.6176,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8947,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.073,
            "command_and_miss": 0.5643,
            "regression_edge": 0.2,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.2857,
            "barrel_edge": -0.5556,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.1571,
            "whiff_edge": 0.6286,
            "bb_edge": 0.95,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1964
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "684007",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 90,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 90,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 86.3572383214721,
              "release_spin_rate": 2029.4914560010316,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 90,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 86.3572383214721,
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                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 86.3572,
              "release_spin_rate": 2029.4915,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1964,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.4027,
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              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1919,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9837,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "684007",
            "espn_rank": null
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9837,
            "adjusted": 2
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9837,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.924,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
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            "factor": 1.0296,
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          "predicted_SO": {
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      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 94,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
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  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -14 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260927_CHC@BOS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260927

20260927_CHC@BOS

home

Tanner Houck

True

1.0

3.0

-1

8/4

4/0

3/1

Last 10 before this game (0 available)

No pregame recent-game rows were available.

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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "player_id": "656557",
      "player_name": "Tanner Houck",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "BOS",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
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          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 2.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.6,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0969
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CHC",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 88,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.5466,
        "runs_scored": 844.0,
        "runs_allowed": 701.0,
        "run_differential": 143.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8882,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.2422,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.354,
        "offense_index": 1.1713,
        "defense_index": 1.0279,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1138
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0169,
        "offense_edge": -0.0466,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1713,
        "defense_strength": 0.191,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0279,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9982,
        "run_prevention": 1.0092,
        "strikeout": 0.9858
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 1.0,
      "predicted_H": 8,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 15,
      "Pitches": 53,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "NO_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "No prior appearances in the source dataset",
      "detail": "The model had no row-level pitching history before this game; any precise box-score line should carry a strong uncertainty warning."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by +6 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -4."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260927_CHC@BOS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260927

20260927_CIN@TOR

away

Brandon Williamson

True

4.1

3.0

-4

3/4

1/3

5/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.89261744966443,
      "WHIP": 1.4093959731543624,
      "IP": 49.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 11,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.917,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.8,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.5793,
      "sample_weight": 0.78,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0492,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9648,
      "walk_factor": 1.0546,
      "homer_factor": 1.0822,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 15.3,
      "bb_percent": 12.6,
      "woba": 0.336,
      "xwoba": 0.365,
      "barrel_percent": 9.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.7,
      "whiff_percent": 24.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 396,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 11.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6875,
        "prior_weight": 0.3125
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "682227",
      "report_date": "20260927",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 11,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 21.2,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 17.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 14.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 87.0,
            "Pitches": 313.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 3.4,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 2.8,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 17.4,
            "Pitches": 62.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.3231,
            "WHIP": 1.1077,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.36923,
            "H_per_IP": 0.78462,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.32308,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.64615,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18462
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 45.0,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 24.0,
            "H": 37.0,
            "BB": 25.0,
            "SO": 30.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 193.0,
            "Pitches": 737.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.1,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 3.7,
            "BB": 2.5,
            "SO": 3.0,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 19.3,
            "Pitches": 73.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2,
            "WHIP": 1.3778,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46667,
            "H_per_IP": 0.82222,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.55556,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.66667,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11111
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 11,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 49.2,
            "ER": 27.0,
            "R": 30.0,
            "H": 43.0,
            "BB": 27.0,
            "SO": 33.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 215.0,
            "Pitches": 831.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.4545,
            "R": 2.7273,
            "H": 3.9091,
            "BB": 2.4545,
            "SO": 3.0,
            "HR": 0.7273,
            "BF": 19.5455,
            "Pitches": 75.5455
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.8926,
            "WHIP": 1.4094,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.54362,
            "H_per_IP": 0.86577,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.54362,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.66443,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16107
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.154,
        "predicted_H": 4.047,
        "predicted_BB": 1.993,
        "predicted_SO": 3.474,
        "predicted_HR": 0.712,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.1533,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.294
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.482,
      "form_weight": 0.518,
      "form_reliability": 0.6875,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 11.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6875,
        "prior_weight": 0.3125
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.154,
          "final": 1.5977,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.047,
          "final": 3.5423,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.993,
          "final": 1.5143,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.474,
          "final": 4.2096,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.712,
          "final": 0.3688,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.1533,
          "final": 4.1533,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.294,
          "final": 1.294,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 45.0,
        "ER": 21,
        "H": 37,
        "BB": 25,
        "SO": 30,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 4.200000000000001,
        "WHIP": 1.377777777777778,
        "K9": 6.000000000000001,
        "HR9": 1.0000000000000002,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-22T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9676532001897913,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 11.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.6875,
          "prior_weight": 0.3125
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.1,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "682227",
      "player_name": "Brandon Williamson",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CIN",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.1,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": -0.9,
              "percent_delta": -0.18,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": -0.9,
              "percent_delta": -0.18,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.1,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.1,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 4.1,
            "delta": -0.9,
            "percent_delta": -0.18,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 4.1,
            "delta": -0.9,
            "percent_delta": -0.18,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CIN",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 86,
        "win_pct": 0.4658,
        "runs_scored": 665.0,
        "runs_allowed": 821.0,
        "run_differential": -156.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.9689,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1304,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0994,
        "offense_index": 0.9229,
        "defense_index": 0.8777,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1481
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TOR",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 78,
        "losses": 83,
        "win_pct": 0.4845,
        "runs_scored": 643.0,
        "runs_allowed": 693.0,
        "run_differential": -50.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3106,
        "avg_runs_scored": 3.9938,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3043,
        "offense_index": 0.8924,
        "defense_index": 1.0398,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8,
          "run_differential": -18.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1213
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0268,
        "offense_edge": -0.0771,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.1076,
        "defense_strength": -0.1223,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0398,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9996,
        "run_prevention": 0.9964,
        "strikeout": 1.0078
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "682227",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "682227",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 195.0,
            "k_percent": 15.3,
            "bb_percent": 12.6,
            "woba": 0.336,
            "xwoba": 0.365,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 41.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.4531,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.5238,
            "whiff_percent": 24.0,
            "swing_percent": 44.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6176,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8947,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.8486,
            "command_and_miss": -0.6657,
            "regression_edge": -0.8286,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.5429,
            "barrel_edge": -0.4667,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.5429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.1714,
            "bb_edge": -0.875,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1449
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "682227",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 61,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 61,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.27704792316935,
              "release_spin_rate": 2309.9624919465377,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 61,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.27704792316935,
                "release_spin_rate": 2309.9624919465377,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.277,
              "release_spin_rate": 2309.9625,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1449,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.0347,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.5793,
          "sample_weight": 0.78,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0492,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9648,
          "walk_factor": 1.0546,
          "homer_factor": 1.0822,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.029,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "682227",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0384,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0384,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0426,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0641,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9725,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.1,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 80,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260927_CIN@TOR.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260927

20260927_CIN@TOR

home

Max Scherzer

True

5.0

7.0

-3

6/6

2/1

4/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "IP": 77.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 17,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.569,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.533,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2077,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
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      "strikeout_factor": 0.9503,
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      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.1,
      "bb_percent": 10.1,
      "woba": 0.33,
      "xwoba": 0.32,
      "barrel_percent": 8.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.8,
      "whiff_percent": 20.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 806,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 17.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
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        "prior_weight": 0.2273
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "453286",
      "report_date": "20260927",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 17,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
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          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
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            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 25.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 112.0,
            "Pitches": 422.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 22.4,
            "Pitches": 84.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5542,
            "WHIP": 1.0482,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.50602,
            "H_per_IP": 0.72289,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3253,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.90361,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10843
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 53.0,
            "ER": 27.0,
            "R": 27.0,
            "H": 41.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 43.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 220.0,
            "Pitches": 847.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.7,
            "R": 2.7,
            "H": 4.1,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.3,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 84.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5849,
            "WHIP": 1.1509,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.50943,
            "H_per_IP": 0.77358,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37736,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.81132,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11321
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 17,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 77.2,
            "ER": 53.0,
            "R": 53.0,
            "H": 72.0,
            "BB": 34.0,
            "SO": 61.0,
            "HR": 15.0,
            "BF": 337.0,
            "Pitches": 1347.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.1176,
            "R": 3.1176,
            "H": 4.2353,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 3.5882,
            "HR": 0.8824,
            "BF": 19.8235,
            "Pitches": 79.2353
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.1416,
            "WHIP": 1.3648,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.6824,
            "H_per_IP": 0.92704,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.43777,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.78541,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.19313
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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        "predicted_ER": 2.823,
        "predicted_H": 4.361,
        "predicted_BB": 1.945,
        "predicted_SO": 4.574,
        "predicted_HR": 0.696,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.8214,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1965
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.446,
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      "form_reliability": 0.7727,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 2.823,
          "final": 3.348,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "form": 4.361,
          "final": 5.0921,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "form": 1.945,
          "final": 1.9695,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 0.696,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.8214,
          "final": 4.8214,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1965,
          "final": 1.1965,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 53.0,
        "ER": 27,
        "H": 41,
        "BB": 20,
        "SO": 43,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 4.584905660377358,
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        "K9": 7.301886792452829,
        "HR9": 1.0188679245283017,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-23T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.00528422744346,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_size": 17.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7727,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "453286",
      "player_name": "Max Scherzer",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TOR",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
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          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TOR",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 78,
        "losses": 83,
        "win_pct": 0.4845,
        "runs_scored": 643.0,
        "runs_allowed": 693.0,
        "run_differential": -50.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3106,
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        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3043,
        "offense_index": 0.8924,
        "defense_index": 1.0398,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8,
          "run_differential": -18.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1213
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CIN",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 86,
        "win_pct": 0.4658,
        "runs_scored": 665.0,
        "runs_allowed": 821.0,
        "run_differential": -156.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.9689,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1304,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0994,
        "offense_index": 0.9229,
        "defense_index": 0.8777,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1481
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0268,
        "offense_edge": -0.1076,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0771,
        "defense_strength": 0.0398,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.1223,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0053,
        "run_prevention": 0.9823,
        "strikeout": 1.007
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "453286",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "453286",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 314.0,
            "k_percent": 18.1,
            "bb_percent": 10.1,
            "woba": 0.33,
            "xwoba": 0.32,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 33.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.4077,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.3143,
            "whiff_percent": 20.4,
            "swing_percent": 49.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6176,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8947,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1514,
            "command_and_miss": -0.5407,
            "regression_edge": 0.2857,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.2571,
            "barrel_edge": -0.3556,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.5857,
            "whiff_edge": -0.6857,
            "bb_edge": -0.25,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1364
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "453286",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 84,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 84,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.42749076681898,
              "release_spin_rate": 2268.105128057084,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 84,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.42749076681898,
                "release_spin_rate": 2268.105128057084,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.4275,
              "release_spin_rate": 2268.1051,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1364,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.9746,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2077,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0177,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9503,
          "walk_factor": 1.02,
          "homer_factor": 1.0127,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.01,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "453286",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0177,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0177,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.02,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0127,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9503,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 93,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by +6 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260927_CIN@TOR.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260927

20260927_CLE@KC

away

Parker Messick

True

6.1

3.0

-10

-2

4/6

1/1

8/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.5527272727272727,
      "WHIP": 1.0418181818181818,
      "IP": 183.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 31,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.914,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.667,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.5755,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9511,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0263,
      "walk_factor": 0.95,
      "homer_factor": 0.9023,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 26.1,
      "bb_percent": 6.6,
      "woba": 0.272,
      "xwoba": 0.272,
      "barrel_percent": 4.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.8,
      "whiff_percent": 25.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 4,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 6.0,
      "season_IP": 183.1,
      "season_ERA": 2.553,
      "season_WHIP": 1.042,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "800048",
      "report_date": "20260927",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 31,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.1,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 27.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 35.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 119.0,
            "Pitches": 485.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 7.0,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 23.8,
            "Pitches": 97.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.8588,
            "WHIP": 1.2,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.31765,
            "H_per_IP": 0.95294,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.24706,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.23529,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10588
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 58.0,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 49.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 69.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 235.0,
            "Pitches": 967.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.7,
            "H": 4.9,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 6.9,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 23.5,
            "Pitches": 96.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.4828,
            "WHIP": 1.0517,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.27586,
            "H_per_IP": 0.84483,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2069,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.18966,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10345
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 31,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 183.1,
            "ER": 52.0,
            "R": 56.0,
            "H": 143.0,
            "BB": 48.0,
            "SO": 191.0,
            "HR": 17.0,
            "BF": 731.0,
            "Pitches": 2884.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.6774,
            "R": 1.8065,
            "H": 4.6129,
            "BB": 1.5484,
            "SO": 6.1613,
            "HR": 0.5484,
            "BF": 23.5806,
            "Pitches": 93.0323
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.5527,
            "WHIP": 1.0418,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.28364,
            "H_per_IP": 0.78,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26182,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.04182,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09273
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.883,
        "predicted_H": 5.164,
        "predicted_BB": 1.477,
        "predicted_SO": 6.617,
        "predicted_HR": 0.628,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.9365,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1507
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4087,
      "form_weight": 0.5913,
      "form_reliability": 0.8611,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.883,
          "final": 2.7482,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.164,
          "final": 4.6883,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.477,
          "final": 1.2821,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 6.617,
          "final": 7.1822,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.628,
          "final": 1.1887,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.9365,
          "final": 2.9365,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1507,
          "final": 1.1507,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 58.0,
        "ER": 16,
        "H": 49,
        "BB": 12,
        "SO": 69,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 2.482758620689655,
        "WHIP": 1.0517241379310343,
        "K9": 10.706896551724137,
        "HR9": 0.9310344827586206,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-22T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7663122040212089,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 8.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 31.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8611,
          "prior_weight": 0.1389
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.1,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 8,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "800048",
      "player_name": "Parker Messick",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CLE",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": 0.1,
              "percent_delta": 0.0167,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 2,
            "better_metrics": 2,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.1,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.5,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.1,
            "delta": 0.1,
            "percent_delta": 0.0167,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 8.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 2,
          "better_metrics": 2,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CLE",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 85,
        "losses": 76,
        "win_pct": 0.528,
        "runs_scored": 676.0,
        "runs_allowed": 664.0,
        "run_differential": 12.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0745,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1988,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1242,
        "offense_index": 0.9382,
        "defense_index": 1.0852,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 9,
          "losses": 1,
          "win_pct": 0.9,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.5,
          "run_differential": 23.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.173
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "KC",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 68,
        "losses": 93,
        "win_pct": 0.4224,
        "runs_scored": 687.0,
        "runs_allowed": 808.0,
        "run_differential": -121.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.7516,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2671,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0186,
        "offense_index": 0.9534,
        "defense_index": 0.8918,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 7.6,
          "run_differential": -25.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2633
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.4363,
        "offense_edge": -0.0618,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0466,
        "defense_strength": 0.0852,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.1082,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.7
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0219,
        "run_prevention": 0.9622,
        "strikeout": 1.0168
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "800048",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "800048",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 705.0,
            "k_percent": 26.1,
            "bb_percent": 6.6,
            "woba": 0.272,
            "xwoba": 0.272,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 4.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 33.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.152,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.4301,
            "whiff_percent": 25.7,
            "swing_percent": 48.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6176,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8947,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.8336,
            "command_and_miss": 0.4136,
            "regression_edge": 0.0,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.1143,
            "barrel_edge": 0.5111,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.5857,
            "whiff_edge": 0.0714,
            "bb_edge": 0.625,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0142
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "800048",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 96,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 96,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.117481056101,
              "release_spin_rate": 2107.0953611307837,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 96,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.117481056101,
                "release_spin_rate": 2107.0953611307837,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.1175,
              "release_spin_rate": 2107.0954,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0142,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.1014,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.5755,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9511,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0263,
          "walk_factor": 0.95,
          "homer_factor": 0.9023,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.0,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "800048",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9511,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9511,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.95,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9023,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0263,
            "adjusted": 7
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.1,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 96,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -10 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260927_CLE@KC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260927

20260927_CLE@KC

home

Daniel Lynch IV

True

5.1

3/7

3/0

5/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.128099173553719,
      "WHIP": 1.140495867768595,
      "IP": 80.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 55,
      "role_avg_IP": 3.852,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.467,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2567,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0218,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9514,
      "walk_factor": 0.974,
      "homer_factor": 1.0095,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 16.2,
      "bb_percent": 7.8,
      "woba": 0.293,
      "xwoba": 0.327,
      "barrel_percent": 6.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.4,
      "whiff_percent": 22.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 269,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.0,
      "season_IP": 80.2,
      "season_ERA": 4.128,
      "season_WHIP": 1.14,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 16.587,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7684,
        "prior_weight": 0.2316
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "663738",
      "report_date": "20260927",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 55,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 22.1,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 23.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 11.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 99.0,
            "Pitches": 371.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 3.6,
            "R": 3.6,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 2.2,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 19.8,
            "Pitches": 74.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.2537,
            "WHIP": 1.4328,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.80597,
            "H_per_IP": 1.02985,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.40299,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.49254,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.22388
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 35.2,
            "ER": 27.0,
            "R": 28.0,
            "H": 36.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 20.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 155.0,
            "Pitches": 560.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.2,
            "ER": 2.7,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 3.6,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 2.0,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 15.5,
            "Pitches": 56.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.8131,
            "WHIP": 1.4019,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.75701,
            "H_per_IP": 1.00935,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.39252,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.56075,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.19626
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 55,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 80.2,
            "ER": 37.0,
            "R": 41.0,
            "H": 66.0,
            "BB": 26.0,
            "SO": 54.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 334.0,
            "Pitches": 1224.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.1,
            "ER": 0.6727,
            "R": 0.7455,
            "H": 1.2,
            "BB": 0.4727,
            "SO": 0.9818,
            "HR": 0.1636,
            "BF": 6.0727,
            "Pitches": 22.2545
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.1281,
            "WHIP": 1.1405,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.45868,
            "H_per_IP": 0.81818,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.32231,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.66942,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11157
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.635,
        "predicted_H": 3.85,
        "predicted_BB": 1.5,
        "predicted_SO": 2.515,
        "predicted_HR": 0.714,
        "predicted_ERA": 6.0435,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3634
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4479,
      "form_weight": 0.5521,
      "form_reliability": 0.7684,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 16.587,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7684,
        "prior_weight": 0.2316
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 4.0,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.635,
          "final": 1.9028,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.85,
          "final": 3.4693,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.5,
          "final": 2.1718,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 2.515,
          "final": 3.6279,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.714,
          "final": 0.8421,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 6.0435,
          "final": 6.0435,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3634,
          "final": 1.3634,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 35.2,
        "ER": 27,
        "H": 36,
        "BB": 14,
        "SO": 20,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 6.813084112149533,
        "WHIP": 1.4018691588785048,
        "K9": 5.046728971962617,
        "HR9": 1.766355140186916,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-22T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.2622274473341317,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 16.587,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7684,
          "prior_weight": 0.2316
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "663738",
      "player_name": "Daniel Lynch IV",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "KC",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "KC",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 68,
        "losses": 93,
        "win_pct": 0.4224,
        "runs_scored": 687.0,
        "runs_allowed": 808.0,
        "run_differential": -121.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.7516,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2671,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0186,
        "offense_index": 0.9534,
        "defense_index": 0.8918,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 7.6,
          "run_differential": -25.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2633
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CLE",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 85,
        "losses": 76,
        "win_pct": 0.528,
        "runs_scored": 676.0,
        "runs_allowed": 664.0,
        "run_differential": 12.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0745,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1988,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1242,
        "offense_index": 0.9382,
        "defense_index": 1.0852,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 9,
          "losses": 1,
          "win_pct": 0.9,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.5,
          "run_differential": 23.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.173
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.4363,
        "offense_edge": -0.0466,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0618,
        "defense_strength": -0.1082,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0852,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.7
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9818,
        "run_prevention": 1.0227,
        "strikeout": 0.9919
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "663738",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "663738",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 304.0,
            "k_percent": 16.2,
            "bb_percent": 7.8,
            "woba": 0.293,
            "xwoba": 0.327,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.9256,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.006,
            "whiff_percent": 22.5,
            "swing_percent": 46.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6176,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8947,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.0783,
            "command_and_miss": -0.4429,
            "regression_edge": -0.9714,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.4571,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0889,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0714,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3857,
            "bb_edge": 0.325,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0068
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "663738",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 70,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 70,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.74268690185157,
              "release_spin_rate": 2086.8602213887807,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 70,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.74268690185157,
                "release_spin_rate": 2086.8602213887807,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.7427,
              "release_spin_rate": 2086.8602,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0068,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.0485,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2567,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0218,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9514,
          "walk_factor": 0.974,
          "homer_factor": 1.0095,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.034,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "663738",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0218,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0218,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.974,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0095,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9514,
            "adjusted": 2
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 88,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260927_CLE@KC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260927

20260927_COL@CHW

away

Kyle Freeland

True

4.1

4.0

-1

6/7

1/0

7/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 6.578680203045685,
      "WHIP": 1.515228426395939,
      "IP": 131.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.253,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.6,
      "last_start_IP": 3.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.5789,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0492,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9594,
      "walk_factor": 0.916,
      "homer_factor": 1.141,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 17.9,
      "bb_percent": 4.9,
      "woba": 0.382,
      "xwoba": 0.354,
      "barrel_percent": 11.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 44.0,
      "whiff_percent": 22.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 668,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "607536",
      "report_date": "20260927",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 25,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.0,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 32.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 13.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 107.0,
            "Pitches": 381.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 6.4,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 2.6,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 21.4,
            "Pitches": 76.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.4783,
            "WHIP": 1.6522,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.6087,
            "H_per_IP": 1.3913,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26087,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.56522,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.26087
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 54.1,
            "ER": 34.0,
            "R": 36.0,
            "H": 65.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 38.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 238.0,
            "Pitches": 838.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.4,
            "R": 3.6,
            "H": 6.5,
            "BB": 1.1,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 1.1,
            "BF": 23.8,
            "Pitches": 83.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.6319,
            "WHIP": 1.3988,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.62577,
            "H_per_IP": 1.19632,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.20245,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.69939,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.20245
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 25,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 131.1,
            "ER": 96.0,
            "R": 100.0,
            "H": 170.0,
            "BB": 29.0,
            "SO": 106.0,
            "HR": 27.0,
            "BF": 593.0,
            "Pitches": 2125.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.84,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 6.8,
            "BB": 1.16,
            "SO": 4.24,
            "HR": 1.08,
            "BF": 23.72,
            "Pitches": 85.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.5787,
            "WHIP": 1.5152,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.73096,
            "H_per_IP": 1.29442,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.22081,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.80711,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.20558
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 3.107,
        "predicted_H": 6.286,
        "predicted_BB": 1.292,
        "predicted_SO": 3.552,
        "predicted_HR": 1.086,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.5624,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.5073
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4204,
      "form_weight": 0.5796,
      "form_reliability": 0.8333,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 3.107,
          "final": 4.3233,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 6.286,
          "final": 5.7453,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.292,
          "final": 1.1692,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 3.552,
          "final": 5.0016,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.086,
          "final": 1.0498,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.5624,
          "final": 5.5624,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.5073,
          "final": 1.5073,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 54.1,
        "ER": 34,
        "H": 65,
        "BB": 11,
        "SO": 38,
        "HR": 11,
        "ERA": 5.631901840490798,
        "WHIP": 1.3987730061349695,
        "K9": 6.294478527607363,
        "HR9": 1.8220858895705523,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
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    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
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        {
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            "biggest_deboost": null
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        {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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          "has_material_change": true,
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "COL",
        "games": 161,
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        "losses": 103,
        "win_pct": 0.3602,
        "runs_scored": 750.0,
        "runs_allowed": 940.0,
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "games": 161,
        "wins": 83,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.5155,
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        "runs_allowed": 718.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3354,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.795,
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        "offense_index": 1.0714,
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          "win_pct": 0.6,
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          "run_differential": 17.0
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        "available": true,
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      "edges": {
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        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0714,
        "defense_strength": -0.2335,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.4
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9718,
        "run_prevention": 1.0577,
        "strikeout": 0.9805
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "607536",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "607536",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 531.0,
            "k_percent": 17.9,
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            "xwoba": 0.354,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 11.1,
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            "avg_best_speed": 79.9509,
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          "league_medians": {
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.6176,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -1.0601,
            "command_and_miss": -0.2036,
            "regression_edge": 0.8,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.2286,
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            "pitch_design_score": -0.1543
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "607536",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 94,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 94,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.10896327807998,
              "release_spin_rate": 2265.301600180975,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 94,
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                "release_speed": 87.10896327807998,
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                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
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            "components": {
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              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": -1.102,
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              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.5789,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0492,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9594,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.028,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "607536",
            "espn_rank": null
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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          "predicted_H": {
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            "factor": 1.0492,
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          "predicted_BB": {
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            "factor": 0.916,
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          "predicted_HR": {
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            "factor": 1.141,
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          "predicted_SO": {
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 6,
      "predicted_ER": 6,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 89,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260927_COL@CHW.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260927

20260927_COL@CHW

home

Anthony Kay

True

4.2

5.0

-2

5/5

1/2

4/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 4.529411764705882,
      "WHIP": 1.3725490196078431,
      "IP": 153.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 32,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.867,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.2,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
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      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0307,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9646,
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      "homer_factor": 1.0524,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.1,
      "bb_percent": 7.8,
      "woba": 0.34,
      "xwoba": 0.342,
      "barrel_percent": 8.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.0,
      "whiff_percent": 22.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 171,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
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      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 32.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8649,
        "prior_weight": 0.1351
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "641743",
      "report_date": "20260927",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 32,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 21.0,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 17.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 101.0,
            "Pitches": 369.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 3.4,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 3.4,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 20.2,
            "Pitches": 73.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.2857,
            "WHIP": 1.5714,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.80952,
            "H_per_IP": 1.2381,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33333,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.80952,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14286
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 49.1,
            "ER": 28.0,
            "R": 31.0,
            "H": 56.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 38.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 222.0,
            "Pitches": 820.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 3.1,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 1.3,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 22.2,
            "Pitches": 82.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.1081,
            "WHIP": 1.3986,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.56757,
            "H_per_IP": 1.13514,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26351,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.77027,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14189
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 32,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 153.0,
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            "R": 84.0,
            "H": 156.0,
            "BB": 54.0,
            "SO": 125.0,
            "HR": 21.0,
            "BF": 689.0,
            "Pitches": 2714.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.4062,
            "R": 2.625,
            "H": 4.875,
            "BB": 1.6875,
            "SO": 3.9062,
            "HR": 0.6562,
            "BF": 21.5312,
            "Pitches": 84.8125
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5294,
            "WHIP": 1.3725,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.50327,
            "H_per_IP": 1.01961,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35294,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.81699,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13725
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.983,
        "predicted_H": 5.263,
        "predicted_BB": 1.493,
        "predicted_SO": 3.785,
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        "predicted_ERA": 5.7888,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4565
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4071,
      "form_weight": 0.5929,
      "form_reliability": 0.8649,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 32.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8649,
        "prior_weight": 0.1351
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.983,
          "final": 2.9899,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.263,
          "final": 5.1559,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.493,
          "final": 1.2923,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.785,
          "final": 3.8725,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.661,
          "final": 0.799,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.7888,
          "final": 5.7888,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4565,
          "final": 1.4565,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 49.1,
        "ER": 28,
        "H": 56,
        "BB": 13,
        "SO": 38,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 5.108108108108108,
        "WHIP": 1.3986486486486487,
        "K9": 6.9324324324324325,
        "HR9": 1.277027027027027,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-22T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.070337134123725,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 32.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8649,
          "prior_weight": 0.1351
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "641743",
      "player_name": "Anthony Kay",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHW",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CHW",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 83,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.5155,
        "runs_scored": 772.0,
        "runs_allowed": 718.0,
        "run_differential": 54.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3354,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.795,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4596,
        "offense_index": 1.0714,
        "defense_index": 1.0036,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": 17.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0894
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "COL",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 58,
        "losses": 103,
        "win_pct": 0.3602,
        "runs_scored": 750.0,
        "runs_allowed": 940.0,
        "run_differential": -190.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.1801,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6584,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.8385,
        "offense_index": 1.0409,
        "defense_index": 0.7665,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.4,
          "run_differential": -26.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3689
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.4583,
        "offense_edge": 0.0714,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0409,
        "defense_strength": 0.0036,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.2335,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.4
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0168,
        "run_prevention": 0.9833,
        "strikeout": 1.0105
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "641743",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "641743",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 659.0,
            "k_percent": 18.1,
            "bb_percent": 7.8,
            "woba": 0.34,
            "xwoba": 0.342,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 39.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.6453,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.2602,
            "whiff_percent": 22.9,
            "swing_percent": 47.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6176,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8947,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.496,
            "command_and_miss": -0.3007,
            "regression_edge": -0.0571,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.8857,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2444,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1571,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3286,
            "bb_edge": 0.325,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0101
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "641743",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 80,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 80,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.04480777448889,
              "release_spin_rate": 2295.850070240423,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 80,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.04480777448889,
                "release_spin_rate": 2295.850070240423,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.0448,
              "release_spin_rate": 2295.8501,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0101,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.0724,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3608,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0307,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9646,
          "walk_factor": 0.974,
          "homer_factor": 1.0524,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.002,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "641743",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0307,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0307,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.974,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0524,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9646,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 85,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260927_COL@CHW.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260927

20260927_HOU@OAK

away

Peter Lambert

True

5.1

2.0

-10

-4

7/2

3/0

6/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.8655097613882865,
      "WHIP": 1.2559652928416487,
      "IP": 153.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.488,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.133,
      "last_start_IP": 2.2,
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          "per_game": {
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          "per_game": {
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      "pitching": {
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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      "total_change": {
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        "changed_metrics": [
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      "opponent": {
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      "edges": {
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "663567",
        "profile": {
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          "pitcher_id": "663567",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "components": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "663567",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 97,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
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              "pitches": 97,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.38687519162656,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.3869,
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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          "quality_score": 0.1721,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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          "predicted_H": {
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          "predicted_BB": {
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          "predicted_HR": {
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          "predicted_SO": {
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 27,
      "Pitches": 107,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -10 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -5."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 4 ER."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260927_HOU@OAK.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260927

20260927_HOU@OAK

home

Seth Johnson

True

4.0

1.2

-7

8/1

1/2

5/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.0625,
      "WHIP": 1.5625,
      "IP": 32.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 1.231,
      "recent_avg_IP": 1.8,
      "last_start_IP": 0.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1625,
      "sample_weight": 0.516,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0138,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0153,
      "walk_factor": 1.0299,
      "homer_factor": 1.0726,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 25.3,
      "bb_percent": 12.0,
      "woba": 0.373,
      "xwoba": 0.331,
      "barrel_percent": 12.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 44.6,
      "whiff_percent": 27.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 716,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 6.58,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5682,
        "prior_weight": 0.4318
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "686751",
      "report_date": "20260927",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 9.0,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 5.0,
            "H": 11.0,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 8.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 38.0,
            "Pitches": 121.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.2,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.0,
            "H": 2.2,
            "BB": 0.2,
            "SO": 1.6,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 7.6,
            "Pitches": 24.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.0,
            "WHIP": 1.3333,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.55556,
            "H_per_IP": 1.22222,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.11111,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.88889,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.22222
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 15.2,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 18.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 66.0,
            "Pitches": 235.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.2,
            "ER": 0.8,
            "R": 0.8,
            "H": 1.8,
            "BB": 0.3,
            "SO": 1.8,
            "HR": 0.3,
            "BF": 6.6,
            "Pitches": 23.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5957,
            "WHIP": 1.3404,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.51064,
            "H_per_IP": 1.14894,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.19149,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.14894,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.19149
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 32.0,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 33.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 38.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 146.0,
            "Pitches": 558.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.1,
            "ER": 0.6923,
            "R": 0.7692,
            "H": 1.2692,
            "BB": 0.6538,
            "SO": 1.4615,
            "HR": 0.1538,
            "BF": 5.6154,
            "Pitches": 21.4615
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.0625,
            "WHIP": 1.5625,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5625,
            "H_per_IP": 1.03125,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.53125,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.1875,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.125
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 2.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.394,
        "predicted_H": 2.855,
        "predicted_BB": 0.766,
        "predicted_SO": 2.623,
        "predicted_HR": 0.457,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.76,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3736
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5324,
      "form_weight": 0.4676,
      "form_reliability": 0.5682,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 6.58,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5682,
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      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.2,
          "final": 3.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 1.394,
          "final": 4.9113,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 2.855,
          "final": 5.0619,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.766,
          "final": 0.8906,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.623,
          "final": 3.3562,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 0.457,
          "final": 1.811,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.76,
          "final": 4.76,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3736,
          "final": 1.3736,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 13.2,
        "ER": 7,
        "H": 15,
        "BB": 3,
        "SO": 14,
        "HR": 2,
        "ERA": 4.609756097560976,
        "WHIP": 1.3170731707317074,
        "K9": 9.219512195121952,
        "HR9": 1.3170731707317074,
        "games_pitched": 9,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-25T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0055861390205278,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.0,
          "predicted_ER": 8.0,
          "predicted_H": 7.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 3.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 6.58,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.5682,
          "prior_weight": 0.4318
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "686751",
      "player_name": "Seth Johnson",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "OAK",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 8.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 3.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 8.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 3.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.0,
            "predicted_R": 8.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.1429,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.25,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 2,
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            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "percent_delta": 0.1429,
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              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 8.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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            "delta": 1.0,
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": {
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            "percent_delta": 0.1429,
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            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "boosted"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "OAK",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 64,
        "losses": 97,
        "win_pct": 0.3975,
        "runs_scored": 699.0,
        "runs_allowed": 928.0,
        "run_differential": -229.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.4224,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3416,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.764,
        "offense_index": 0.9701,
        "defense_index": 0.7765,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.7,
          "run_differential": -25.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3319
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 80,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.4969,
        "runs_scored": 725.0,
        "runs_allowed": 766.0,
        "run_differential": -41.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2547,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5031,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7578,
        "offense_index": 1.0062,
        "defense_index": 0.9407,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": 10.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0689
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.263,
        "offense_edge": -0.0299,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0062,
        "defense_strength": -0.2235,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0593,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9825,
        "run_prevention": 1.0365,
        "strikeout": 0.9916
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "686751",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "686751",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 129.0,
            "k_percent": 25.3,
            "bb_percent": 12.0,
            "woba": 0.373,
            "xwoba": 0.331,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 41.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 12.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 44.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.2113,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.2448,
            "whiff_percent": 27.1,
            "swing_percent": 46.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6176,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8947,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.8776,
            "command_and_miss": 0.1621,
            "regression_edge": 1.2,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.5714,
            "barrel_edge": -1.0667,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.9571,
            "whiff_edge": 0.2714,
            "bb_edge": -0.725,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1807
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "686751",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 22,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 22,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 93.09071620904594,
              "release_spin_rate": 2440.9411506876427,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "pitches": 22,
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                "release_spin_rate": 2440.9411506876427,
                "spin_axis": null,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
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                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
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              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 93.0907,
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              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1807,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.2907,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1625,
          "sample_weight": 0.516,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0138,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0153,
          "walk_factor": 1.0299,
          "homer_factor": 1.0726,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.042,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "686751",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0071,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0071,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0154,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0375,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0079,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.0,
      "predicted_H": 8,
      "predicted_R": 8,
      "predicted_ER": 8,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 3,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 90,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 7",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -7; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -7 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 7",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -7."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 7 ER."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260927_HOU@OAK.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260927

20260927_LAA@SEA

away

Yusei Kikuchi

True

5.0

-1

6/6

1/1

8/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.882978723404255,
      "WHIP": 1.547872340425532,
      "IP": 62.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 13,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.821,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.333,
      "last_start_IP": 5.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.4306,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0366,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9886,
      "walk_factor": 1.024,
      "homer_factor": 1.1045,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.3,
      "bb_percent": 10.3,
      "woba": 0.349,
      "xwoba": 0.343,
      "barrel_percent": 8.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 46.1,
      "whiff_percent": 23.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 284,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 13.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7222,
        "prior_weight": 0.2778
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "579328",
      "report_date": "20260927",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 13,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.2,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 117.0,
            "Pitches": 456.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 2.8,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 23.4,
            "Pitches": 91.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0375,
            "WHIP": 1.5,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3375,
            "H_per_IP": 0.975,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.525,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.8625,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.075
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 48.0,
            "ER": 23.0,
            "R": 24.0,
            "H": 48.0,
            "BB": 23.0,
            "SO": 44.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 212.0,
            "Pitches": 838.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.3,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 2.3,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 21.2,
            "Pitches": 83.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.3125,
            "WHIP": 1.4792,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.47917,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.47917,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.91667,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.125
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 13,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 62.2,
            "ER": 34.0,
            "R": 35.0,
            "H": 68.0,
            "BB": 29.0,
            "SO": 60.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 282.0,
            "Pitches": 1112.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.6154,
            "R": 2.6923,
            "H": 5.2308,
            "BB": 2.2308,
            "SO": 4.6154,
            "HR": 0.5385,
            "BF": 21.6923,
            "Pitches": 85.5385
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.883,
            "WHIP": 1.5479,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.54255,
            "H_per_IP": 1.08511,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.46277,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.95745,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1117
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.247,
        "predicted_H": 4.974,
        "predicted_BB": 2.309,
        "predicted_SO": 4.53,
        "predicted_HR": 0.565,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.0643,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4636
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4674,
      "form_weight": 0.5326,
      "form_reliability": 0.7222,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 13.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7222,
        "prior_weight": 0.2778
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.247,
          "final": 3.0663,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.974,
          "final": 5.4535,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.309,
          "final": 1.6972,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 4.53,
          "final": 6.1518,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.565,
          "final": 1.2357,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.0643,
          "final": 4.0643,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4636,
          "final": 1.4636,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 48.0,
        "ER": 23,
        "H": 48,
        "BB": 23,
        "SO": 44,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 4.3125,
        "WHIP": 1.4791666666666667,
        "K9": 8.25,
        "HR9": 1.125,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-22T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9828441724120134,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 8.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 13.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7222,
          "prior_weight": 0.2778
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "579328",
      "player_name": "Yusei Kikuchi",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "LAA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 8.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "LAA",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 62,
        "losses": 99,
        "win_pct": 0.3851,
        "runs_scored": 652.0,
        "runs_allowed": 745.0,
        "run_differential": -93.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5776,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0497,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6273,
        "offense_index": 0.9049,
        "defense_index": 0.9672,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.0,
          "run_differential": -20.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2036
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SEA",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 86,
        "win_pct": 0.4658,
        "runs_scored": 657.0,
        "runs_allowed": 719.0,
        "run_differential": -62.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3851,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0807,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4658,
        "offense_index": 0.9118,
        "defense_index": 1.0022,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": -2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0764
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1272,
        "offense_edge": -0.0951,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0882,
        "defense_strength": -0.0328,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0022,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9975,
        "run_prevention": 0.9955,
        "strikeout": 1.0032
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "579328",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "579328",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 259.0,
            "k_percent": 21.3,
            "bb_percent": 10.3,
            "woba": 0.349,
            "xwoba": 0.343,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 46.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.0911,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 95.6181,
            "whiff_percent": 23.9,
            "swing_percent": 48.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6176,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8947,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.7215,
            "command_and_miss": -0.17,
            "regression_edge": 0.1714,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.9143,
            "barrel_edge": -0.3778,
            "hard_hit_edge": -1.1714,
            "whiff_edge": -0.1857,
            "bb_edge": -0.3,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0058
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "579328",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 92,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 92,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.96673905289315,
              "release_spin_rate": 2207.8213288952597,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 92,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.96673905289315,
                "release_spin_rate": 2207.8213288952597,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.9667,
              "release_spin_rate": 2207.8213,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0058,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.0411,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.4306,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0366,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9886,
          "walk_factor": 1.024,
          "homer_factor": 1.1045,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.006,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "579328",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0366,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0366,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.024,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.1045,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9886,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 93,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260927_LAA@SEA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260927

20260927_LAA@SEA

home

Logan Gilbert

True

5.2

4.0

-5

4/0

0/1

10/8

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.8076923076923075,
      "WHIP": 1.1043956043956045,
      "IP": 182.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 31,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.871,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.333,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2007,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9829,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0566,
      "walk_factor": 0.948,
      "homer_factor": 1.0584,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 26.7,
      "bb_percent": 6.5,
      "woba": 0.303,
      "xwoba": 0.297,
      "barrel_percent": 10.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.2,
      "whiff_percent": 30.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 34,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669302",
      "report_date": "20260927",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 31,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.2,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 33.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 35.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 121.0,
            "Pitches": 463.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.8,
            "R": 3.8,
            "H": 6.6,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 7.0,
            "HR": 1.6,
            "BF": 24.2,
            "Pitches": 92.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.4125,
            "WHIP": 1.575,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.7125,
            "H_per_IP": 1.2375,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3375,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.3125,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.3
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 56.1,
            "ER": 29.0,
            "R": 29.0,
            "H": 55.0,
            "BB": 21.0,
            "SO": 64.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 241.0,
            "Pitches": 951.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.9,
            "R": 2.9,
            "H": 5.5,
            "BB": 2.1,
            "SO": 6.4,
            "HR": 1.4,
            "BF": 24.1,
            "Pitches": 95.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.6331,
            "WHIP": 1.3491,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.51479,
            "H_per_IP": 0.97633,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37278,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.13609,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.24852
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 31,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 182.0,
            "ER": 77.0,
            "R": 77.0,
            "H": 153.0,
            "BB": 48.0,
            "SO": 197.0,
            "HR": 29.0,
            "BF": 737.0,
            "Pitches": 2922.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.4839,
            "R": 2.4839,
            "H": 4.9355,
            "BB": 1.5484,
            "SO": 6.3548,
            "HR": 0.9355,
            "BF": 23.7742,
            "Pitches": 94.2581
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8077,
            "WHIP": 1.1044,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42308,
            "H_per_IP": 0.84066,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26374,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.08242,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15934
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 3.219,
        "predicted_H": 5.904,
        "predicted_BB": 1.909,
        "predicted_SO": 6.532,
        "predicted_HR": 1.339,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.1778,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3964
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4087,
      "form_weight": 0.5913,
      "form_reliability": 0.8611,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 3.219,
          "final": 1.9034,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.904,
          "final": 5.1259,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.909,
          "final": 1.1288,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 10.0,
          "form": 6.532,
          "final": 7.9493,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.339,
          "final": 0.7918,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.1778,
          "final": 5.1778,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3964,
          "final": 1.3964,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 56.1,
        "ER": 29,
        "H": 55,
        "BB": 21,
        "SO": 64,
        "HR": 14,
        "ERA": 4.633136094674556,
        "WHIP": 1.349112426035503,
        "K9": 10.224852071005916,
        "HR9": 2.2366863905325443,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-22T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0156643770471219,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 0.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 10.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 31.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8611,
          "prior_weight": 0.1389
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 0,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 10,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669302",
      "player_name": "Logan Gilbert",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SEA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 10.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 10.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 10.0,
              "after": 10.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "delta": -0.4667,
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              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
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            "predicted_SO": 10.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.2,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 10.0,
              "after": 10.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "percent_delta": null,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 10.0,
            "after": 10.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
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        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SEA",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 86,
        "win_pct": 0.4658,
        "runs_scored": 657.0,
        "runs_allowed": 719.0,
        "run_differential": -62.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3851,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0807,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4658,
        "offense_index": 0.9118,
        "defense_index": 1.0022,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": -2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0764
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "LAA",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 62,
        "losses": 99,
        "win_pct": 0.3851,
        "runs_scored": 652.0,
        "runs_allowed": 745.0,
        "run_differential": -93.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5776,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0497,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6273,
        "offense_index": 0.9049,
        "defense_index": 0.9672,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.0,
          "run_differential": -20.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2036
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1272,
        "offense_edge": -0.0882,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0951,
        "defense_strength": 0.0022,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0328,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.009,
        "run_prevention": 0.9782,
        "strikeout": 1.0114
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669302",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669302",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 680.0,
            "k_percent": 26.7,
            "bb_percent": 6.5,
            "woba": 0.303,
            "xwoba": 0.297,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 10.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 41.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.9253,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.3788,
            "whiff_percent": 30.4,
            "swing_percent": 50.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6176,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8947,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0079,
            "command_and_miss": 0.6921,
            "regression_edge": 0.1714,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.4,
            "barrel_edge": -0.6444,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.4714,
            "whiff_edge": 0.7429,
            "bb_edge": 0.65,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0099
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669302",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 97,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 97,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.68670804198848,
              "release_spin_rate": 1934.7185998494679,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 97,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.68670804198848,
                "release_spin_rate": 1934.7185998494679,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.6867,
              "release_spin_rate": 1934.7186,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0099,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.0709,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2007,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9829,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0566,
          "walk_factor": 0.948,
          "homer_factor": 1.0584,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.006,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "669302",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9829,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9829,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.948,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0584,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0566,
            "adjusted": 7
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 0,
      "predicted_ER": 0,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 10,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 95,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260927_LAA@SEA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260927

20260927_LAD@SF

away

Jack Dreyer

True

5.0

2.0

-9

3/2

2/0

7/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.1595744680851063,
      "WHIP": 1.1010638297872342,
      "IP": 62.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 66,
      "role_avg_IP": 1.0,
      "recent_avg_IP": 1.0,
      "last_start_IP": 1.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.3395,
      "sample_weight": 0.932,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9711,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0485,
      "walk_factor": 1.0,
      "homer_factor": 1.0023,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 28.0,
      "bb_percent": 9.1,
      "woba": 0.27,
      "xwoba": 0.29,
      "barrel_percent": 7.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.8,
      "whiff_percent": 28.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 159,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 62.2,
      "season_ERA": 3.16,
      "season_WHIP": 1.101,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 12.886,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7204,
        "prior_weight": 0.2796
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "676263",
      "report_date": "20260927",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 66,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 3.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 23.0,
            "Pitches": 80.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.6,
            "R": 0.6,
            "H": 0.8,
            "BB": 0.6,
            "SO": 0.6,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 4.6,
            "Pitches": 16.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.0625,
            "WHIP": 1.3125,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5625,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.5625,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.5625,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 9.1,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 5.0,
            "H": 9.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 41.0,
            "Pitches": 146.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.5,
            "R": 0.5,
            "H": 0.9,
            "BB": 0.5,
            "SO": 0.5,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 4.1,
            "Pitches": 14.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.8214,
            "WHIP": 1.5,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.53571,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96429,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.53571,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.53571,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 66,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 62.2,
            "ER": 22.0,
            "R": 22.0,
            "H": 46.0,
            "BB": 23.0,
            "SO": 71.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 254.0,
            "Pitches": 1005.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.3333,
            "R": 0.3333,
            "H": 0.697,
            "BB": 0.3485,
            "SO": 1.0758,
            "HR": 0.1061,
            "BF": 3.8485,
            "Pitches": 15.2273
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1596,
            "WHIP": 1.1011,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.35106,
            "H_per_IP": 0.73404,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36702,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.13298,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1117
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 2.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.226,
        "predicted_H": 2.079,
        "predicted_BB": 1.142,
        "predicted_SO": 1.78,
        "predicted_HR": 0.138,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.6021,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3434
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4681,
      "form_weight": 0.5319,
      "form_reliability": 0.7204,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 12.886,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7204,
        "prior_weight": 0.2796
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 2.1,
          "final": 4.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.226,
          "final": 1.1202,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.079,
          "final": 2.5101,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.142,
          "final": 1.5437,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 1.78,
          "final": 4.2236,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.138,
          "final": 1.0097,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.6021,
          "final": 4.6021,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3434,
          "final": 1.3434,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 9.1,
        "ER": 5,
        "H": 9,
        "BB": 5,
        "SO": 5,
        "HR": 0,
        "ERA": 4.821428571428572,
        "WHIP": 1.5000000000000002,
        "K9": 4.821428571428572,
        "HR9": 0.0,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-23T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0126672402765533,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 12.886,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7204,
          "prior_weight": 0.2796
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 2
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "676263",
      "player_name": "Jack Dreyer",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "LAD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.1667,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.1667,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 4,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          {
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          {
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "LAD",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 99,
        "losses": 62,
        "win_pct": 0.6149,
        "runs_scored": 796.0,
        "runs_allowed": 599.0,
        "run_differential": 197.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.2236,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9441,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7205,
        "offense_index": 1.1047,
        "defense_index": 1.2029,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.7,
          "run_differential": 20.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.318
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SF",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 65,
        "losses": 96,
        "win_pct": 0.4037,
        "runs_scored": 668.0,
        "runs_allowed": 755.0,
        "run_differential": -87.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5404,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1491,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6894,
        "offense_index": 0.9271,
        "defense_index": 0.9544,
        "current_streak": "L4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
          "run_differential": -9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2183
      },
      "edges": {
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        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0729,
        "defense_strength": 0.2029,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0456,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.4
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0305,
        "run_prevention": 0.9412,
        "strikeout": 1.0219
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "676263",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "676263",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 233.0,
            "k_percent": 28.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.27,
            "xwoba": 0.29,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 25.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 41.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.8558,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.7984,
            "whiff_percent": 28.3,
            "swing_percent": 48.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6176,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8947,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.5003,
            "command_and_miss": 0.5407,
            "regression_edge": -0.5714,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.6,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0222,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.5571,
            "whiff_edge": 0.4429,
            "bb_edge": 0.0,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0087
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "676263",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 18,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 18,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.01857852918194,
              "release_spin_rate": 2458.5593322273385,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 18,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.01857852918194,
                "release_spin_rate": 2458.5593322273385,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.0186,
              "release_spin_rate": 2458.5593,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0087,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.0619,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.3395,
          "sample_weight": 0.932,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9711,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0485,
          "walk_factor": 1.0,
          "homer_factor": 1.0023,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.02,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "676263",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9731,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9731,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0021,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 9.0,
            "factor": 1.0452,
            "adjusted": 9
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 84,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -9 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260927_LAD@SF.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260927

20260927_LAD@SF

home

Carson Seymour

True

4.0

1.0

-9

-4

6/0

1/0

6/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 4.695652173913043,
      "WHIP": 1.5326086956521738,
      "IP": 30.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 24,
      "role_avg_IP": 3.0,
      "recent_avg_IP": 3.0,
      "last_start_IP": 3.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.4294,
      "sample_weight": 0.484,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0365,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9757,
      "walk_factor": 1.0271,
      "homer_factor": 1.0543,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 15.7,
      "bb_percent": 11.9,
      "woba": 0.364,
      "xwoba": 0.385,
      "barrel_percent": 9.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.6,
      "whiff_percent": 22.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 750,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 6.306,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5577,
        "prior_weight": 0.4423
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "693313",
      "report_date": "20260927",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 24,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 2.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 3.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 18.0,
            "Pitches": 72.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.2,
            "R": 0.6,
            "H": 0.4,
            "BB": 0.4,
            "SO": 0.6,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 3.6,
            "Pitches": 14.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.9286,
            "WHIP": 0.8571,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.21429,
            "H_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.64286,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.21429
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 8.2,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 7.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 40.0,
            "Pitches": 148.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.5,
            "R": 0.7,
            "H": 0.7,
            "BB": 0.7,
            "SO": 0.5,
            "HR": 0.3,
            "BF": 4.0,
            "Pitches": 14.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.1923,
            "WHIP": 1.6154,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.57692,
            "H_per_IP": 0.80769,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.80769,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.57692,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.34615
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 24,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.2,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 31.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 137.0,
            "Pitches": 520.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.1,
            "ER": 0.6667,
            "R": 0.7917,
            "H": 1.2917,
            "BB": 0.6667,
            "SO": 0.9167,
            "HR": 0.25,
            "BF": 5.7083,
            "Pitches": 21.6667
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.6957,
            "WHIP": 1.5326,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.52174,
            "H_per_IP": 1.01087,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.52174,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.71739,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.19565
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 2.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.2,
        "predicted_H": 2.162,
        "predicted_BB": 1.306,
        "predicted_SO": 2.042,
        "predicted_HR": 0.556,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.062,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3042
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5369,
      "form_weight": 0.4631,
      "form_reliability": 0.5577,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 6.306,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5577,
        "prior_weight": 0.4423
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 2.2,
          "final": 3.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.2,
          "final": 2.7032,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 2.162,
          "final": 4.2225,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.306,
          "final": 1.1417,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 2.042,
          "final": 4.1669,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.556,
          "final": 1.3312,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.062,
          "final": 4.062,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3042,
          "final": 1.3042,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 8.2,
        "ER": 5,
        "H": 7,
        "BB": 7,
        "SO": 5,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 5.1923076923076925,
        "WHIP": 1.6153846153846154,
        "K9": 5.1923076923076925,
        "HR9": 3.1153846153846154,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-26T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0246800082647531,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 6.306,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.5577,
          "prior_weight": 0.4423
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4,
          "predicted_H": 6,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 2
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "693313",
      "player_name": "Carson Seymour",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SF",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": -0.6667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1429,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": -0.6667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1429,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.0,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": -0.6667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1429,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": -0.6667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1429,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SF",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 65,
        "losses": 96,
        "win_pct": 0.4037,
        "runs_scored": 668.0,
        "runs_allowed": 755.0,
        "run_differential": -87.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5404,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1491,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6894,
        "offense_index": 0.9271,
        "defense_index": 0.9544,
        "current_streak": "L4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
          "run_differential": -9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2183
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "LAD",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 99,
        "losses": 62,
        "win_pct": 0.6149,
        "runs_scored": 796.0,
        "runs_allowed": 599.0,
        "run_differential": 197.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.2236,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9441,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7205,
        "offense_index": 1.1047,
        "defense_index": 1.2029,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.7,
          "run_differential": 20.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.318
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.5363,
        "offense_edge": -0.0729,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1047,
        "defense_strength": -0.0456,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.2029,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.4
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.973,
        "run_prevention": 1.0481,
        "strikeout": 0.9755
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "693313",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "693313",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 121.0,
            "k_percent": 15.7,
            "bb_percent": 11.9,
            "woba": 0.364,
            "xwoba": 0.385,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 37.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 39.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.1603,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9282,
            "whiff_percent": 22.7,
            "swing_percent": 46.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6176,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8947,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -1.2011,
            "command_and_miss": -0.67,
            "regression_edge": -0.6,
            "xwoba_edge": -2.1143,
            "barrel_edge": -0.4889,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.2429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3571,
            "bb_edge": -0.7,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.2465
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "693313",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 19,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 19,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 94.26568376704982,
              "release_spin_rate": 2239.5160098179445,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 19,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 94.26568376704982,
                "release_spin_rate": 2239.5160098179445,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 94.2657,
              "release_spin_rate": 2239.516,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.2465,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.7607,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.4294,
          "sample_weight": 0.484,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0365,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9757,
          "walk_factor": 1.0271,
          "homer_factor": 1.0543,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.021,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "693313",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0177,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 9.0,
            "factor": 1.0177,
            "adjusted": 9
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0131,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0263,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9882,
            "adjusted": 2
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 76,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -9 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 6",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -6."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 4 ER."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260927_LAD@SF.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260927

20260927_NYM@WAS

away

Sean Manaea

True

5.2

6.0

7/7

2/1

6/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.665898617511521,
      "WHIP": 1.2995391705069126,
      "IP": 144.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 32,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.648,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.533,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3304,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0281,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9874,
      "walk_factor": 0.956,
      "homer_factor": 1.1128,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.5,
      "bb_percent": 6.9,
      "woba": 0.343,
      "xwoba": 0.335,
      "barrel_percent": 11.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.9,
      "whiff_percent": 22.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 574,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 32.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8649,
        "prior_weight": 0.1351
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "640455",
      "report_date": "20260927",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 32,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.2,
            "ER": 19.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
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        },
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          },
          "per_game": {
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        },
        "season": {
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          },
          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.2995,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.51843,
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            "SO_per_IP": 0.97465,
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8649,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 3.303,
          "final": 3.5867,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "form": 5.789,
          "final": 6.282,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "form": 1.32,
          "final": 1.5968,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 5.176,
          "final": 5.1044,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 0.897,
          "final": 0.9389,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.3137,
          "final": 5.3137,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2707,
          "final": 1.2707,
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
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        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
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        "ER": 32,
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        "HR9": 1.6779661016949152,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-22T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0403697726944992,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
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          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 32.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8649,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "640455",
      "player_name": "Sean Manaea",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "NYM",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "after": 6.0,
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              "percent_delta": 0.2,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
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          {
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          },
          {
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        ],
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "NYM",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 87,
        "win_pct": 0.4596,
        "runs_scored": 695.0,
        "runs_allowed": 725.0,
        "run_differential": -30.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1863,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3168,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5031,
        "offense_index": 0.9603,
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        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": 7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0571
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "WAS",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 76,
        "losses": 85,
        "win_pct": 0.472,
        "runs_scored": 815.0,
        "runs_allowed": 811.0,
        "run_differential": 4.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0248,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.0621,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0373,
        "offense_index": 1.1262,
        "defense_index": 0.8924,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0142
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0713,
        "offense_edge": -0.0397,
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        "defense_strength": -0.0018,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.1076,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.992,
        "run_prevention": 1.0239,
        "strikeout": 0.9878
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "640455",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "640455",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 578.0,
            "k_percent": 22.5,
            "bb_percent": 6.9,
            "woba": 0.343,
            "xwoba": 0.335,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 11.1,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
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            "whiff_percent": 22.5,
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          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
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            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.6176,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.5978,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0071,
            "regression_edge": 0.2286,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.6857,
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            "hard_hit_edge": -0.5714,
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            "bb_edge": 0.55,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.2543
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "640455",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 83,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 83,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 85.32242397875616,
              "release_spin_rate": 2105.383936655872,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
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                "pitches": 83,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 85.32242397875616,
                "release_spin_rate": 2105.383936655872,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 85.3224,
              "release_spin_rate": 2105.3839,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.2543,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": -1.8166,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3304,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0281,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9874,
          "walk_factor": 0.956,
          "homer_factor": 1.1128,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.008,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "640455",
            "espn_rank": null
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0281,
            "adjusted": 3
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0281,
            "adjusted": 6
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.956,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.1128,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9874,
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 100,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260927_NYM@WAS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260927

20260927_NYM@WAS

home

DJ Herz

True

3.2

3.0

-2

7/6

1/1

6/2

Last 10 before this game (1 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 9.0,
      "WHIP": 1.75,
      "IP": 4.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 1,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.0,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.0,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0299,
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      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
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      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
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    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260927_NYM@WAS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260927

20260927_PIT@DET

away

Jared Jones

True

5.2

4.0

-5

-1

3/1

1/0

7/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.8703071672354947,
      "WHIP": 1.1160409556313993,
      "IP": 97.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 20,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.883,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.933,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.5053,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9571,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0846,
      "walk_factor": 0.972,
      "homer_factor": 0.9831,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 29.4,
      "bb_percent": 7.7,
      "woba": 0.287,
      "xwoba": 0.281,
      "barrel_percent": 7.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.2,
      "whiff_percent": 32.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 67,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 20.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8,
        "prior_weight": 0.2
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "683003",
      "report_date": "20260927",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 20,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 29.2,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 6.0,
            "H": 19.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 41.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 113.0,
            "Pitches": 444.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.2,
            "R": 1.2,
            "H": 3.8,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 8.2,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 22.6,
            "Pitches": 88.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.8202,
            "WHIP": 0.809,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.20225,
            "H_per_IP": 0.64045,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.16854,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.38202,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03371
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 51.2,
            "ER": 23.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 44.0,
            "BB": 18.0,
            "SO": 65.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 218.0,
            "Pitches": 845.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.3,
            "R": 2.3,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 6.5,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 21.8,
            "Pitches": 84.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.0065,
            "WHIP": 1.2,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44516,
            "H_per_IP": 0.85161,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34839,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.25806,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11613
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 20,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 97.2,
            "ER": 42.0,
            "R": 43.0,
            "H": 78.0,
            "BB": 31.0,
            "SO": 118.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 402.0,
            "Pitches": 1579.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.1,
            "R": 2.15,
            "H": 3.9,
            "BB": 1.55,
            "SO": 5.9,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 20.1,
            "Pitches": 78.95
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8703,
            "WHIP": 1.116,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.43003,
            "H_per_IP": 0.79863,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31741,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.20819,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12287
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.036,
        "predicted_H": 4.38,
        "predicted_BB": 1.573,
        "predicted_SO": 6.791,
        "predicted_HR": 0.519,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.3191,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0784
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4345,
      "form_weight": 0.5655,
      "form_reliability": 0.8,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 20.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8,
        "prior_weight": 0.2
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.036,
          "final": 1.5859,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.38,
          "final": 3.7804,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.573,
          "final": 1.324,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 6.791,
          "final": 5.1438,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.519,
          "final": 0.728,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.3191,
          "final": 3.3191,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0784,
          "final": 1.0784,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 51.2,
        "ER": 23,
        "H": 44,
        "BB": 18,
        "SO": 65,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 4.006451612903225,
        "WHIP": 1.2,
        "K9": 11.32258064516129,
        "HR9": 1.0451612903225806,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-22T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9414345621969595,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 20.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8,
          "prior_weight": 0.2
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "683003",
      "player_name": "Jared Jones",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PIT",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.1333,
              "percent_delta": -0.025,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 4.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.3333,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": {
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              "delta": 4.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.3333,
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            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.1333,
              "percent_delta": -0.025,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.2,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 4.0,
            "percent_delta": 1.3333,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
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            "percent_delta": 1.3333,
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          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
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            "delta": -0.1333,
            "percent_delta": -0.025,
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "PIT",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 81,
        "losses": 80,
        "win_pct": 0.5031,
        "runs_scored": 763.0,
        "runs_allowed": 737.0,
        "run_differential": 26.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1615,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7391,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5776,
        "offense_index": 1.0589,
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        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
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          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": 4.0
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        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0575
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      "opponent": {
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        "games": 161,
        "wins": 76,
        "losses": 85,
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        "runs_scored": 721.0,
        "runs_allowed": 648.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.4534,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4783,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0248,
        "offense_index": 1.0006,
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        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6,
          "run_differential": -7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0031
      },
      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": 0.0589,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0006,
        "defense_strength": -0.0223,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.112,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
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      "player_factors": {
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        "run_prevention": 0.9993,
        "strikeout": 1.0018
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "683003",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "683003",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "k_percent": 29.4,
            "bb_percent": 7.7,
            "woba": 0.287,
            "xwoba": 0.281,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.6723,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.0781,
            "whiff_percent": 32.6,
            "swing_percent": 49.3
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          "league_medians": {
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.6176,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8947,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.4158,
            "command_and_miss": 0.9157,
            "regression_edge": 0.1714,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.8571,
            "barrel_edge": -0.0889,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0429,
            "whiff_edge": 1.0571,
            "bb_edge": 0.35,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.2146
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "683003",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 89,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 89,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 93.69589250768729,
              "release_spin_rate": 2522.5526400784156,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 89,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 93.69589250768729,
                "release_spin_rate": 2522.5526400784156,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 93.6959,
              "release_spin_rate": 2522.5526,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.2146,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.5328,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.5053,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9571,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0846,
          "walk_factor": 0.972,
          "homer_factor": 0.9831,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.006,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "683003",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9571,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9571,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.972,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9831,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0846,
            "adjusted": 8
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 87,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260927_PIT@DET.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260927

20260927_PIT@DET

home

River Ryan

True

3.0

1.1

-5

3/3

1/2

8/3

Last 10 before this game (1 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 0.0,
      "WHIP": 1.0,
      "IP": 3.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 1,
      "role_avg_IP": 3.0,
      "recent_avg_IP": 3.0,
      "last_start_IP": 3.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0299,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9975,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0031,
      "walk_factor": 0.9991,
      "homer_factor": 0.997,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.7,
      "bb_percent": 9.0,
      "woba": 0.31,
      "xwoba": 0.308,
      "barrel_percent": 7.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.5,
      "whiff_percent": 25.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 343,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 1.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.1667,
        "prior_weight": 0.8333
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "689981",
      "report_date": "20260927",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 1,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 1,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 3.0,
            "ER": 0.0,
            "R": 0.0,
            "H": 2.0,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 3.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 12.0,
            "Pitches": 43.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "ER": 0.0,
            "R": 0.0,
            "H": 2.0,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 3.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 12.0,
            "Pitches": 43.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 0.0,
            "WHIP": 1.0,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.0,
            "H_per_IP": 0.66667,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33333,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 1,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 3.0,
            "ER": 0.0,
            "R": 0.0,
            "H": 2.0,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 3.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 12.0,
            "Pitches": 43.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.0,
            "ER": 0.0,
            "R": 0.0,
            "H": 2.0,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 3.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 12.0,
            "Pitches": 43.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 0.0,
            "WHIP": 1.0,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.0,
            "H_per_IP": 0.66667,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33333,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 1,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 3.0,
            "ER": 0.0,
            "R": 0.0,
            "H": 2.0,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 3.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 12.0,
            "Pitches": 43.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.0,
            "ER": 0.0,
            "R": 0.0,
            "H": 2.0,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 3.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 12.0,
            "Pitches": 43.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 0.0,
            "WHIP": 1.0,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.0,
            "H_per_IP": 0.66667,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33333,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 3.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.638,
        "predicted_H": 3.568,
        "predicted_BB": 1.425,
        "predicted_SO": 3.629,
        "predicted_HR": 0.476,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.8447,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3025
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.7021,
      "form_weight": 0.2979,
      "form_reliability": 0.1667,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 1.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.1667,
        "prior_weight": 0.8333
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.2,
          "final": 4.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.638,
          "final": 1.1901,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.568,
          "final": 3.1692,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.425,
          "final": 1.1266,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 3.629,
          "final": 6.6977,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.476,
          "final": 0.1418,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.8447,
          "final": 3.8447,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3025,
          "final": 1.3025,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "insufficient_data"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 3.0,
        "ER": 0,
        "H": 2,
        "BB": 1,
        "SO": 3,
        "HR": 0,
        "ERA": 0.0,
        "WHIP": 1.0,
        "K9": 9.0,
        "HR9": 0.0,
        "games_pitched": 1,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": true,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 1,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 1,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-21T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9484484931354742,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 8.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 1.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.1667,
          "prior_weight": 0.8333
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 3.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 8,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "689981",
      "player_name": "River Ryan",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "DET",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.0,
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              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 3.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
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            "percent_delta": null,
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            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.0,
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            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 8.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "DET",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 76,
        "losses": 85,
        "win_pct": 0.472,
        "runs_scored": 721.0,
        "runs_allowed": 648.0,
        "run_differential": 73.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.4534,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4783,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0248,
        "offense_index": 1.0006,
        "defense_index": 1.112,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6,
          "run_differential": -7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0031
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "PIT",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 81,
        "losses": 80,
        "win_pct": 0.5031,
        "runs_scored": 763.0,
        "runs_allowed": 737.0,
        "run_differential": 26.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1615,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7391,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5776,
        "offense_index": 1.0589,
        "defense_index": 0.9777,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": 4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0575
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0606,
        "offense_edge": 0.0006,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0589,
        "defense_strength": 0.112,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0223,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9986,
        "run_prevention": 1.0013,
        "strikeout": 0.9935
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "689981",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "689981",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 0.0,
            "k_percent": 22.7,
            "bb_percent": 9.0,
            "woba": 0.31,
            "xwoba": 0.308,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5089,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8602,
            "whiff_percent": 25.7,
            "swing_percent": 47.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6176,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8947,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0737,
            "command_and_miss": 0.075,
            "regression_edge": 0.0571,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.0857,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0222,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.0571,
            "whiff_edge": 0.0714,
            "bb_edge": 0.025,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": false,
            "pitcher_id": "689981",
            "reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0299,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9975,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0031,
          "walk_factor": 0.9991,
          "homer_factor": 0.997,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.002,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "689981",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9989,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9989,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9996,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9987,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0014,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 3.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 13,
      "Pitches": 63,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 1 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260927_PIT@DET.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260927

20260927_STL@MIL

away

Andre Pallante

True

5.1

5.0

-1

6/10

5/1

2/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.611464968152866,
      "WHIP": 1.2420382165605095,
      "IP": 157.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.607,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.4,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0257,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9978,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9434,
      "walk_factor": 0.968,
      "homer_factor": 0.9327,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 16.2,
      "bb_percent": 7.5,
      "woba": 0.298,
      "xwoba": 0.309,
      "barrel_percent": 4.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.2,
      "whiff_percent": 21.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 59,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669467",
      "report_date": "20260927",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.0,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 28.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 14.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 115.0,
            "Pitches": 436.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 2.8,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 23.0,
            "Pitches": 87.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.3333,
            "WHIP": 1.3704,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.48148,
            "H_per_IP": 1.03704,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33333,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.51852,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03704
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 57.0,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 49.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 34.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 231.0,
            "Pitches": 904.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.9,
            "R": 2.1,
            "H": 4.9,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 3.4,
            "HR": 0.1,
            "BF": 23.1,
            "Pitches": 90.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0,
            "WHIP": 1.2105,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33333,
            "H_per_IP": 0.85965,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35088,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.59649,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.01754
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 28,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 157.0,
            "ER": 63.0,
            "R": 67.0,
            "H": 146.0,
            "BB": 49.0,
            "SO": 106.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 654.0,
            "Pitches": 2551.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.25,
            "R": 2.3929,
            "H": 5.2143,
            "BB": 1.75,
            "SO": 3.7857,
            "HR": 0.3929,
            "BF": 23.3571,
            "Pitches": 91.1071
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6115,
            "WHIP": 1.242,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.40127,
            "H_per_IP": 0.92994,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3121,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.67516,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07006
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.353,
        "predicted_H": 5.259,
        "predicted_BB": 1.877,
        "predicted_SO": 3.466,
        "predicted_HR": 0.295,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.8574,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.414,
      "form_weight": 0.586,
      "form_reliability": 0.8485,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
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      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.353,
          "final": 3.0349,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.259,
          "final": 5.5658,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 1.877,
          "final": 3.1699,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 3.466,
          "final": 2.8591,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.295,
          "final": 0.1729,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.8574,
          "final": 3.8574,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3,
          "final": 1.3,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 57.0,
        "ER": 19,
        "H": 49,
        "BB": 20,
        "SO": 34,
        "HR": 1,
        "ERA": 3.0,
        "WHIP": 1.2105263157894737,
        "K9": 5.368421052631579,
        "HR9": 0.15789473684210525,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-22T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8284719136400835,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 5.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 28.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8485,
          "prior_weight": 0.1515
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669467",
      "player_name": "Andre Pallante",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "STL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 5.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 5.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
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          {
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          {
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "STL",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 77,
        "losses": 84,
        "win_pct": 0.4783,
        "runs_scored": 716.0,
        "runs_allowed": 743.0,
        "run_differential": -27.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1677,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4472,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6149,
        "offense_index": 0.9937,
        "defense_index": 0.9698,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
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          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.2,
          "run_differential": -21.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1441
      },
      "opponent": {
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        "games": 161,
        "wins": 102,
        "losses": 59,
        "win_pct": 0.6335,
        "runs_scored": 826.0,
        "runs_allowed": 614.0,
        "run_differential": 212.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.3168,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.1304,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8137,
        "offense_index": 1.1463,
        "defense_index": 1.1735,
        "current_streak": "W4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.0,
          "run_differential": 13.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3803
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.5244,
        "offense_edge": -0.0063,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1463,
        "defense_strength": -0.0302,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1735,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.6
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9723,
        "run_prevention": 1.0526,
        "strikeout": 0.9726
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669467",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669467",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 598.0,
            "k_percent": 16.2,
            "bb_percent": 7.5,
            "woba": 0.298,
            "xwoba": 0.309,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 29.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 4.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 34.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.4273,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.4989,
            "whiff_percent": 21.1,
            "swing_percent": 44.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6176,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8947,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.3321,
            "command_and_miss": -0.4979,
            "regression_edge": -0.3143,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.0571,
            "barrel_edge": 0.5556,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.5286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.5857,
            "bb_edge": 0.4,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0069
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669467",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 86,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 86,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.9870971466055,
              "release_spin_rate": 2284.8010573767824,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 86,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.9870971466055,
                "release_spin_rate": 2284.8010573767824,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.9871,
              "release_spin_rate": 2284.8011,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0069,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.0493,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0257,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9978,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9434,
          "walk_factor": 0.968,
          "homer_factor": 0.9327,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.011,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "669467",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9978,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9978,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.968,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9327,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9434,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 5,
      "predicted_SO": 2,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 27,
      "Pitches": 115,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260927_STL@MIL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260927

20260927_STL@MIL

home

Jacob Misiorowski

True

6.0

5.1

-2

2/2

0/2

6/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "WHIP": 0.8031496062992125,
      "IP": 169.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 29,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.839,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.867,
      "last_start_IP": 3.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 1.3904,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.8818,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.16,
      "walk_factor": 0.948,
      "homer_factor": 0.8348,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 38.2,
      "bb_percent": 6.5,
      "woba": 0.217,
      "xwoba": 0.223,
      "barrel_percent": 3.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.0,
      "whiff_percent": 37.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 5,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 6.0,
      "season_IP": 169.1,
      "season_ERA": 1.86,
      "season_WHIP": 0.803,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "694819",
      "report_date": "20260927",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 29,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
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          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.1,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 17.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 31.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 96.0,
            "Pitches": 400.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 3.4,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 6.2,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 19.2,
            "Pitches": 80.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.9589,
            "WHIP": 1.0685,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.32877,
            "H_per_IP": 0.69863,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36986,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.27397,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0411
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 54.1,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 33.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 74.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 207.0,
            "Pitches": 854.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.5,
            "R": 1.5,
            "H": 3.3,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 7.4,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 20.7,
            "Pitches": 85.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.4847,
            "WHIP": 0.865,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.27607,
            "H_per_IP": 0.60736,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25767,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.36196,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09202
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 29,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 169.1,
            "ER": 35.0,
            "R": 43.0,
            "H": 94.0,
            "BB": 42.0,
            "SO": 247.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 646.0,
            "Pitches": 2579.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.2069,
            "R": 1.4828,
            "H": 3.2414,
            "BB": 1.4483,
            "SO": 8.5172,
            "HR": 0.4828,
            "BF": 22.2759,
            "Pitches": 88.931
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.8602,
            "WHIP": 0.8031,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.20669,
            "H_per_IP": 0.55512,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.24803,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.45866,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08268
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.73,
        "predicted_H": 3.731,
        "predicted_BB": 1.717,
        "predicted_SO": 6.945,
        "predicted_HR": 0.429,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.8734,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0058
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4121,
      "form_weight": 0.5879,
      "form_reliability": 0.8529,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.73,
          "final": 1.8413,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 3.731,
          "final": 3.0176,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.717,
          "final": 1.0093,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 6.945,
          "final": 5.7312,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.429,
          "final": 0.2522,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.8734,
          "final": 2.8734,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0058,
          "final": 1.0058,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 54.1,
        "ER": 15,
        "H": 33,
        "BB": 14,
        "SO": 74,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 2.484662576687117,
        "WHIP": 0.8650306748466259,
        "K9": 12.257668711656443,
        "HR9": 0.8282208588957056,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-20T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7618590624938131,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 29.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8529,
          "prior_weight": 0.1471
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 2,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "694819",
      "player_name": "Jacob Misiorowski",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 3.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.75,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": {
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            "biggest_deboost": null
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          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
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            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.1429,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.1429,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIL",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 102,
        "losses": 59,
        "win_pct": 0.6335,
        "runs_scored": 826.0,
        "runs_allowed": 614.0,
        "run_differential": 212.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.3168,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.1304,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8137,
        "offense_index": 1.1463,
        "defense_index": 1.1735,
        "current_streak": "W4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.0,
          "run_differential": 13.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3803
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "STL",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 77,
        "losses": 84,
        "win_pct": 0.4783,
        "runs_scored": 716.0,
        "runs_allowed": 743.0,
        "run_differential": -27.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1677,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4472,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6149,
        "offense_index": 0.9937,
        "defense_index": 0.9698,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.2,
          "run_differential": -21.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1441
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.5244,
        "offense_edge": 0.1463,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0063,
        "defense_strength": 0.1735,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0302,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.6
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0264,
        "run_prevention": 0.9554,
        "strikeout": 1.0162
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "694819",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "694819",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 614.0,
            "k_percent": 38.2,
            "bb_percent": 6.5,
            "woba": 0.217,
            "xwoba": 0.223,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 3.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 33.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.432,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 92.9697,
            "whiff_percent": 37.2,
            "swing_percent": 51.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6176,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8947,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 1.6511,
            "command_and_miss": 1.7714,
            "regression_edge": -0.1714,
            "xwoba_edge": 2.5,
            "barrel_edge": 0.7778,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.7,
            "whiff_edge": 1.7143,
            "bb_edge": 0.65,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.28
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "694819",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 92,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 92,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 97.5350871630707,
              "release_spin_rate": 2568.640260744372,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 92,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 97.5350871630707,
                "release_spin_rate": 2568.640260744372,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 97.5351,
              "release_spin_rate": 2568.6403,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.28,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 2.0,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 1.3904,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.8818,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.16,
          "walk_factor": 0.948,
          "homer_factor": 0.8348,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.006,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "694819",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.8818,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.8818,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.948,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.8348,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.16,
            "adjusted": 8
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 82,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260927_STL@MIL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260927

20260927_TB@PHI

away

Nick Martinez

True

6.0

2.2

-10

8/7

0/1

4/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.943609022556391,
      "WHIP": 1.0657894736842104,
      "IP": 177.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 30,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.911,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.933,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0293,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0025,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9171,
      "walk_factor": 0.888,
      "homer_factor": 0.9551,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 15.3,
      "bb_percent": 3.5,
      "woba": 0.289,
      "xwoba": 0.305,
      "barrel_percent": 6.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 32.5,
      "whiff_percent": 17.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 18,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "607259",
      "report_date": "20260927",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 30,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 29.2,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 113.0,
            "Pitches": 405.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 0.6,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 22.6,
            "Pitches": 81.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0337,
            "WHIP": 0.9101,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33708,
            "H_per_IP": 0.80899,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.10112,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.70787,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16854
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 60.0,
            "ER": 26.0,
            "R": 26.0,
            "H": 55.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 41.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 233.0,
            "Pitches": 826.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 5.5,
            "BB": 0.5,
            "SO": 4.1,
            "HR": 1.1,
            "BF": 23.3,
            "Pitches": 82.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9,
            "WHIP": 1.0,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.43333,
            "H_per_IP": 0.91667,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.08333,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.68333,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18333
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 30,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 177.1,
            "ER": 58.0,
            "R": 58.0,
            "H": 164.0,
            "BB": 25.0,
            "SO": 108.0,
            "HR": 22.0,
            "BF": 706.0,
            "Pitches": 2474.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.9333,
            "R": 1.9333,
            "H": 5.4667,
            "BB": 0.8333,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 0.7333,
            "BF": 23.5333,
            "Pitches": 82.4667
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.9436,
            "WHIP": 1.0658,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.32707,
            "H_per_IP": 0.92481,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.14098,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.60902,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12406
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.336,
        "predicted_H": 5.317,
        "predicted_BB": 0.854,
        "predicted_SO": 4.297,
        "predicted_HR": 0.975,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.5039,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0285
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4104,
      "form_weight": 0.5896,
      "form_reliability": 0.8571,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.336,
          "final": 2.6085,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 5.317,
          "final": 6.418,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.854,
          "final": 0.5035,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.297,
          "final": 3.7647,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.975,
          "final": 0.5749,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.5039,
          "final": 3.5039,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0285,
          "final": 1.0285,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 60.0,
        "ER": 26,
        "H": 55,
        "BB": 5,
        "SO": 41,
        "HR": 11,
        "ERA": 3.9000000000000004,
        "WHIP": 1.0000000000000002,
        "K9": 6.15,
        "HR9": 1.6500000000000001,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-22T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9244587557453467,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 8.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 30.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8571,
          "prior_weight": 0.1429
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 8,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 4,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "607259",
      "player_name": "Nick Martinez",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TB",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.3333,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
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              "percent_delta": 0.3333,
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              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            "percent_delta": null,
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            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.3333,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
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            "percent_delta": 0.3333,
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            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TB",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 98,
        "losses": 63,
        "win_pct": 0.6087,
        "runs_scored": 733.0,
        "runs_allowed": 643.0,
        "run_differential": 90.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.559,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5528,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9938,
        "offense_index": 1.0161,
        "defense_index": 1.1219,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.6,
          "run_differential": 19.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.196
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 87,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.5404,
        "runs_scored": 706.0,
        "runs_allowed": 695.0,
        "run_differential": 11.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0683,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3851,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3168,
        "offense_index": 0.9786,
        "defense_index": 1.038,
        "current_streak": "L4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 2.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": -17.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0077
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1883,
        "offense_edge": 0.0161,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0214,
        "defense_strength": 0.1219,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.038,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.012,
        "run_prevention": 0.975,
        "strikeout": 1.0074
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "607259",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "607259",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 680.0,
            "k_percent": 15.3,
            "bb_percent": 3.5,
            "woba": 0.289,
            "xwoba": 0.305,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.6,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 32.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.6782,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.0609,
            "whiff_percent": 17.4,
            "swing_percent": 50.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6176,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8947,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.3016,
            "command_and_miss": -0.5407,
            "regression_edge": -0.4571,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.1714,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1111,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.7714,
            "whiff_edge": -1.1143,
            "bb_edge": 1.4,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1491
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "607259",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 79,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 79,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.20062905927892,
              "release_spin_rate": 2197.645020819482,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 79,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.20062905927892,
                "release_spin_rate": 2197.645020819482,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.2006,
              "release_spin_rate": 2197.645,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1491,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.0653,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0293,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0025,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9171,
          "walk_factor": 0.888,
          "homer_factor": 0.9551,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.016,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "607259",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0025,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0025,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.888,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9551,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9171,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 8,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 100,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -10 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260927_TB@PHI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260927

20260927_TB@PHI

home

Zack Wheeler

True

6.0

-2

3/5

2/0

3/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.0576923076923075,
      "WHIP": 1.0576923076923077,
      "IP": 156.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.778,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.333,
      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.7492,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9363,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0823,
      "walk_factor": 0.97,
      "homer_factor": 0.9227,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 30.2,
      "bb_percent": 7.6,
      "woba": 0.278,
      "xwoba": 0.265,
      "barrel_percent": 6.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.0,
      "whiff_percent": 31.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 8,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "554430",
      "report_date": "20260927",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 31.2,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 6.0,
            "H": 21.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 40.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 123.0,
            "Pitches": 505.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.2,
            "R": 1.2,
            "H": 4.2,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 8.0,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 24.6,
            "Pitches": 101.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.7053,
            "WHIP": 0.9474,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.18947,
            "H_per_IP": 0.66316,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28421,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.26316,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03158
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 53.0,
            "ER": 24.0,
            "R": 25.0,
            "H": 46.0,
            "BB": 24.0,
            "SO": 65.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 226.0,
            "Pitches": 938.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.5,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 6.5,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 22.6,
            "Pitches": 93.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.0755,
            "WHIP": 1.3208,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.45283,
            "H_per_IP": 0.86792,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.45283,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.22642,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13208
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 27,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 156.0,
            "ER": 53.0,
            "R": 54.0,
            "H": 118.0,
            "BB": 47.0,
            "SO": 188.0,
            "HR": 20.0,
            "BF": 622.0,
            "Pitches": 2552.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.963,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.3704,
            "BB": 1.7407,
            "SO": 6.963,
            "HR": 0.7407,
            "BF": 23.037,
            "Pitches": 94.5185
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0577,
            "WHIP": 1.0577,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33974,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75641,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30128,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.20513,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12821
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.015,
        "predicted_H": 4.637,
        "predicted_BB": 2.066,
        "predicted_SO": 6.998,
        "predicted_HR": 0.563,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.0878,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1412
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.416,
      "form_weight": 0.584,
      "form_reliability": 0.8438,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.015,
          "final": 2.4248,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.637,
          "final": 3.956,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.066,
          "final": 2.0385,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 6.998,
          "final": 4.5029,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.563,
          "final": 0.3288,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.0878,
          "final": 3.0878,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1412,
          "final": 1.1412,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 53.0,
        "ER": 24,
        "H": 46,
        "BB": 24,
        "SO": 65,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 4.075471698113207,
        "WHIP": 1.320754716981132,
        "K9": 11.037735849056602,
        "HR9": 1.1886792452830186,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-22T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9522181897076107,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 1.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 27.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8438,
          "prior_weight": 0.1562
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "554430",
      "player_name": "Zack Wheeler",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PHI",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 1.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 6.0,
              "percent_delta": 6.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 6.0,
              "percent_delta": 6.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -4.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5714,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -4.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5714,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 2.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 2.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 87,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.5404,
        "runs_scored": 706.0,
        "runs_allowed": 695.0,
        "run_differential": 11.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0683,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3851,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3168,
        "offense_index": 0.9786,
        "defense_index": 1.038,
        "current_streak": "L4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 2.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": -17.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0077
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TB",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 98,
        "losses": 63,
        "win_pct": 0.6087,
        "runs_scored": 733.0,
        "runs_allowed": 643.0,
        "run_differential": 90.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.559,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5528,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9938,
        "offense_index": 1.0161,
        "defense_index": 1.1219,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.6,
          "run_differential": 19.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.196
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1883,
        "offense_edge": -0.0214,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0161,
        "defense_strength": 0.038,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1219,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.993,
        "run_prevention": 1.0082,
        "strikeout": 0.9931
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "554430",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "554430",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 598.0,
            "k_percent": 30.2,
            "bb_percent": 7.6,
            "woba": 0.278,
            "xwoba": 0.265,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 35.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 74.3242,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.3559,
            "whiff_percent": 31.4,
            "swing_percent": 50.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6176,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8947,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.8454,
            "command_and_miss": 0.9121,
            "regression_edge": 0.3714,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.3143,
            "barrel_edge": 0.2667,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.4143,
            "whiff_edge": 0.8857,
            "bb_edge": 0.375,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0183
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "554430",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 101,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 101,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.19030757034128,
              "release_spin_rate": 2366.8015860556898,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 101,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.19030757034128,
                "release_spin_rate": 2366.8015860556898,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.1903,
              "release_spin_rate": 2366.8016,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0183,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.1306,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.7492,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9363,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0823,
          "walk_factor": 0.97,
          "homer_factor": 0.9227,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.013,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "554430",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9363,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9363,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.97,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9227,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0823,
            "adjusted": 8
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 93,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260927_TB@PHI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260927

20260927_TEX@MIN

away

MacKenzie Gore

True

4.2

2.1

-7

-3

3/1

2/1

6/0

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.587890625,
      "WHIP": 1.341796875,
      "IP": 170.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 33,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.172,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.267,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0124,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0011,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0086,
      "walk_factor": 1.006,
      "homer_factor": 1.0426,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.5,
      "bb_percent": 9.4,
      "woba": 0.316,
      "xwoba": 0.311,
      "barrel_percent": 8.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.0,
      "whiff_percent": 25.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 196,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 33.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8684,
        "prior_weight": 0.1316
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669022",
      "report_date": "20260927",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 33,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 21.1,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 9.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 102.0,
            "Pitches": 385.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 2.8,
            "SO": 1.8,
            "HR": 0.2,
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          "rates": {
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            "SO_per_IP": 0.42188,
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        },
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          "rates": {
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        },
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          "rates": {
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.50977,
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      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 33.0,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "final": 4.9658,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "AVG": 0,
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        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
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        "ER": 22,
        "H": 49,
        "BB": 26,
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        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 4.124999999999999,
        "WHIP": 1.5624999999999998,
        "K9": 7.124999999999999,
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        "games_pitched": 10,
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        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-22T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9638337557453467,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
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          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
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        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_size": 33.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8684,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669022",
      "player_name": "MacKenzie Gore",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TEX",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          {
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          },
          {
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        ],
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            "material": true
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TEX",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 80,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.4969,
        "runs_scored": 669.0,
        "runs_allowed": 713.0,
        "run_differential": -44.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2733,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1553,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4286,
        "offense_index": 0.9285,
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        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": -2.0
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        "available": true,
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      },
      "opponent": {
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        "games": 161,
        "wins": 76,
        "losses": 85,
        "win_pct": 0.472,
        "runs_scored": 733.0,
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        "run_differential": -60.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3727,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5528,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9255,
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          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.2,
          "run_differential": 14.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0346
      },
      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": -0.0715,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0173,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9996,
        "run_prevention": 1.0018,
        "strikeout": 0.9986
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669022",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669022",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 715.0,
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            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.6,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.5967,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.4996,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
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            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.6176,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.0884,
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            "regression_edge": 0.1429,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.0,
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            "hard_hit_edge": -0.4429,
            "whiff_edge": 0.0,
            "bb_edge": -0.075,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0207
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669022",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 79,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 79,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.23294676003985,
              "release_spin_rate": 2168.3870679330716,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
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                "pitches": 79,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.23294676003985,
                "release_spin_rate": 2168.3870679330716,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.2329,
              "release_spin_rate": 2168.3871,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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            "components": {
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              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0124,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0011,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "669022",
            "espn_rank": null
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0011,
            "adjusted": 3
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0011,
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.006,
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          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0426,
            "adjusted": 0
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0086,
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      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 79,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -7 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260927_TEX@MIN.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260927

20260927_TEX@MIN

home

Dean Kremer

True

5.0

7.0

-1

4/3

0/0

5/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "WHIP": 1.2000000000000002,
      "IP": 83.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 16,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.208,
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      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
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      "barrel_percent": 9.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.8,
      "whiff_percent": 28.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
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      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 16.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7619,
        "prior_weight": 0.2381
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "665152",
      "report_date": "20260927",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 16,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.2,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 21.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 24.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 102.0,
            "Pitches": 428.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 4.2,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 20.4,
            "Pitches": 85.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.3784,
            "WHIP": 1.2568,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.48649,
            "H_per_IP": 0.85135,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.40541,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.97297,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12162
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 51.1,
            "ER": 28.0,
            "R": 29.0,
            "H": 41.0,
            "BB": 21.0,
            "SO": 48.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 211.0,
            "Pitches": 876.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 2.9,
            "H": 4.1,
            "BB": 2.1,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 21.1,
            "Pitches": 87.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.9091,
            "WHIP": 1.2078,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.54545,
            "H_per_IP": 0.7987,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.40909,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.93506,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13636
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 16,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 83.1,
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            "R": 49.0,
            "H": 71.0,
            "BB": 29.0,
            "SO": 82.0,
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            "BF": 341.0,
            "Pitches": 1392.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.875,
            "R": 3.0625,
            "H": 4.4375,
            "BB": 1.8125,
            "SO": 5.125,
            "HR": 1.0625,
            "BF": 21.3125,
            "Pitches": 87.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.968,
            "WHIP": 1.2,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.552,
            "H_per_IP": 0.852,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.348,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.984,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.204
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.618,
        "predicted_H": 4.389,
        "predicted_BB": 1.977,
        "predicted_SO": 4.827,
        "predicted_HR": 0.73,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.6658,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2604
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4506,
      "form_weight": 0.5494,
      "form_reliability": 0.7619,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 16.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7619,
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      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.618,
          "final": 2.3395,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.389,
          "final": 4.2137,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.977,
          "final": 1.0862,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.827,
          "final": 4.905,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.73,
          "final": 1.3023,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.6658,
          "final": 4.6658,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2604,
          "final": 1.2604,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 51.1,
        "ER": 28,
        "H": 41,
        "BB": 21,
        "SO": 48,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 4.909090909090909,
        "WHIP": 1.2077922077922079,
        "K9": 8.415584415584416,
        "HR9": 1.2272727272727273,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-20T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0431762882128792,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 16.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7619,
          "prior_weight": 0.2381
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "665152",
      "player_name": "Dean Kremer",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIN",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIN",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 76,
        "losses": 85,
        "win_pct": 0.472,
        "runs_scored": 733.0,
        "runs_allowed": 793.0,
        "run_differential": -60.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3727,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5528,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9255,
        "offense_index": 1.0173,
        "defense_index": 0.9086,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.2,
          "run_differential": 14.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0346
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TEX",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 80,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.4969,
        "runs_scored": 669.0,
        "runs_allowed": 713.0,
        "run_differential": -44.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2733,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1553,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4286,
        "offense_index": 0.9285,
        "defense_index": 1.0106,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": -2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0362
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0016,
        "offense_edge": 0.0173,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0715,
        "defense_strength": -0.0914,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0106,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0002,
        "run_prevention": 0.9976,
        "strikeout": 1.0058
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "665152",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "665152",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 319.0,
            "k_percent": 24.0,
            "bb_percent": 8.5,
            "woba": 0.325,
            "xwoba": 0.324,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 38.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 35.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.8021,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.6538,
            "whiff_percent": 28.7,
            "swing_percent": 46.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6176,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8947,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.2883,
            "command_and_miss": 0.3336,
            "regression_edge": 0.0286,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.3714,
            "barrel_edge": -0.5333,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.3,
            "whiff_edge": 0.5,
            "bb_edge": 0.15,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1761
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "665152",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 86,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 86,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 86.71852131574862,
              "release_spin_rate": 2103.3959956974113,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 86,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 86.71852131574862,
                "release_spin_rate": 2103.3959956974113,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 86.7185,
              "release_spin_rate": 2103.396,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1761,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.2582,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.086,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0073,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0314,
          "walk_factor": 0.988,
          "homer_factor": 1.0418,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.001,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "665152",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0073,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0073,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.988,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0418,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0314,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 86,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by +6 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260927_TEX@MIN.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260929

20260929_BOS@NYY

away

Payton Tolle

True

5.2

4.2

-3

-1

4/5

3/1

7/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.0269058295964126,
      "WHIP": 1.0964125560538118,
      "IP": 148.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.718,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.733,
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                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.9325,
              "release_spin_rate": 2264.4127,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1718,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.2273,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.7976,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9322,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0514,
          "walk_factor": 0.948,
          "homer_factor": 0.9104,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.03,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "801139",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9322,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9322,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.948,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9104,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0514,
            "adjusted": 7
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 103,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260929_BOS@NYY.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260929

20260929_BOS@NYY

home

Cam Schlittler

True

6.0

6.1

1/2

2/1

9/10

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 1.9518072289156627,
      "WHIP": 0.919104991394148,
      "IP": 193.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 33,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.869,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.0,
      "last_start_IP": 3.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.7134,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9394,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0771,
      "walk_factor": 0.944,
      "homer_factor": 0.9612,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 31.4,
      "bb_percent": 6.4,
      "woba": 0.243,
      "xwoba": 0.262,
      "barrel_percent": 7.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.3,
      "whiff_percent": 29.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 2,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 33.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8684,
        "prior_weight": 0.1316
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "693645",
      "report_date": "20260929",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 33,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.0,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 12.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 38.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 110.0,
            "Pitches": 457.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 0.8,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 2.4,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 7.6,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 91.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.2,
            "WHIP": 0.6333,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.13333,
            "H_per_IP": 0.4,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23333,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.26667,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06667
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 57.0,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 31.0,
            "BB": 23.0,
            "SO": 74.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 223.0,
            "Pitches": 931.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.1,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 3.1,
            "BB": 2.3,
            "SO": 7.4,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 22.3,
            "Pitches": 93.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.7368,
            "WHIP": 0.9474,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.19298,
            "H_per_IP": 0.54386,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.40351,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.29825,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07018
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 33,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 193.2,
            "ER": 42.0,
            "R": 52.0,
            "H": 129.0,
            "BB": 49.0,
            "SO": 239.0,
            "HR": 16.0,
            "BF": 761.0,
            "Pitches": 3041.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.2727,
            "R": 1.5758,
            "H": 3.9091,
            "BB": 1.4848,
            "SO": 7.2424,
            "HR": 0.4848,
            "BF": 23.0606,
            "Pitches": 92.1515
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.9518,
            "WHIP": 0.9191,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.21687,
            "H_per_IP": 0.66609,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25301,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.23408,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08262
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.274,
        "predicted_H": 3.344,
        "predicted_BB": 1.814,
        "predicted_SO": 7.238,
        "predicted_HR": 0.48,
        "predicted_ERA": 1.9433,
        "predicted_WHIP": 0.8744
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4056,
      "form_weight": 0.5944,
      "form_reliability": 0.8684,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 33.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8684,
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      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.274,
          "final": 0.7573,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 3.344,
          "final": 2.3933,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.814,
          "final": 1.8894,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 9.0,
          "form": 7.238,
          "final": 7.9527,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.48,
          "final": 0.2853,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.9433,
          "final": 1.9433,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 0.8744,
          "final": 0.8744,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 57.0,
        "ER": 11,
        "H": 31,
        "BB": 23,
        "SO": 74,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 1.736842105263158,
        "WHIP": 0.9473684210526315,
        "K9": 11.68421052631579,
        "HR9": 0.631578947368421,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": true,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-24T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.6904572300778384,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 0.0,
          "predicted_H": 1.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 9.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 33.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8684,
          "prior_weight": 0.1316
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 0,
          "predicted_H": 1,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 9,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "693645",
      "player_name": "Cam Schlittler",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "NYY",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 9.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 9.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 9.0,
              "after": 9.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
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            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 1.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 9.0,
              "after": 9.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 9.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "NYY",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 93,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.5776,
        "runs_scored": 739.0,
        "runs_allowed": 601.0,
        "run_differential": 138.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8571,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5901,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7329,
        "offense_index": 1.0213,
        "defense_index": 1.204,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1708
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "BOS",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 87,
        "losses": 75,
        "win_pct": 0.537,
        "runs_scored": 689.0,
        "runs_allowed": 611.0,
        "run_differential": 78.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.4815,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2531,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7716,
        "offense_index": 0.9463,
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        "current_streak": "L1",
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          "avg_runs_scored": 2.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.5,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0904
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0804,
        "offense_edge": 0.0213,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0537,
        "defense_strength": 0.204,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1917,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0115,
        "run_prevention": 0.967,
        "strikeout": 1.0067
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "693645",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "693645",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 691.0,
            "k_percent": 31.4,
            "bb_percent": 6.4,
            "woba": 0.243,
            "xwoba": 0.262,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.3,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6999,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.7524,
            "whiff_percent": 29.4,
            "swing_percent": 52.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.8909,
            "command_and_miss": 0.9479,
            "regression_edge": -0.5429,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.4286,
            "barrel_edge": -0.0222,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0571,
            "whiff_edge": 0.6,
            "bb_edge": 0.7,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.28
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "693645",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 97,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 97,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 95.84565678559713,
              "release_spin_rate": 2515.855995429108,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 97,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 95.84565678559713,
                "release_spin_rate": 2515.855995429108,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 95.8457,
              "release_spin_rate": 2515.856,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.28,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 2.0,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.7134,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9394,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0771,
          "walk_factor": 0.944,
          "homer_factor": 0.9612,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.019,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "693645",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9394,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9394,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.944,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9612,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 8.0,
            "factor": 1.0771,
            "adjusted": 9
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 1,
      "predicted_R": 0,
      "predicted_ER": 0,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 9,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 99,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260929_BOS@NYY.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260929

20260929_CHC@SD

away

Matthew Boyd

True

6.0

4.0

-6

-1

9/5

1/1

7/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.9078947368421053,
      "WHIP": 1.2078947368421051,
      "IP": 126.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 22,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.758,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.933,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2585,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.022,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9629,
      "walk_factor": 0.966,
      "homer_factor": 1.0226,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.5,
      "bb_percent": 7.5,
      "woba": 0.303,
      "xwoba": 0.33,
      "barrel_percent": 7.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.6,
      "whiff_percent": 22.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 184,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 22.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8148,
        "prior_weight": 0.1852
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "571510",
      "report_date": "20260929",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 22,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 29.2,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 20.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 119.0,
            "Pitches": 446.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 23.8,
            "Pitches": 89.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6404,
            "WHIP": 1.1798,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.40449,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8764,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30337,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.67416,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 60.2,
            "ER": 30.0,
            "R": 33.0,
            "H": 54.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 36.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 246.0,
            "Pitches": 913.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.3,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 0.9,
            "BF": 24.6,
            "Pitches": 91.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.4505,
            "WHIP": 1.2198,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.49451,
            "H_per_IP": 0.89011,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.32967,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.59341,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14835
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 22,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 126.2,
            "ER": 55.0,
            "R": 59.0,
            "H": 114.0,
            "BB": 39.0,
            "SO": 96.0,
            "HR": 15.0,
            "BF": 520.0,
            "Pitches": 1957.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.5,
            "R": 2.6818,
            "H": 5.1818,
            "BB": 1.7727,
            "SO": 4.3636,
            "HR": 0.6818,
            "BF": 23.6364,
            "Pitches": 88.9545
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9079,
            "WHIP": 1.2079,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.43421,
            "H_per_IP": 0.9,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30789,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.75789,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11842
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.706,
        "predicted_H": 5.376,
        "predicted_BB": 1.936,
        "predicted_SO": 4.24,
        "predicted_HR": 0.53,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.0957,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2297
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4282,
      "form_weight": 0.5718,
      "form_reliability": 0.8148,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 22.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8148,
        "prior_weight": 0.1852
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 2.706,
          "final": 3.6884,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 9.0,
          "form": 5.376,
          "final": 6.928,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.936,
          "final": 1.5352,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 4.24,
          "final": 5.422,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 0.53,
          "final": 1.5878,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.0957,
          "final": 4.0957,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2297,
          "final": 1.2297,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 60.2,
        "ER": 30,
        "H": 54,
        "BB": 20,
        "SO": 36,
        "HR": 9,
        "ERA": 4.450549450549451,
        "WHIP": 1.2197802197802199,
        "K9": 5.340659340659341,
        "HR9": 1.3351648351648353,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-24T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9916217175454372,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 5.0,
          "predicted_H": 9.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 3.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 22.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8148,
          "prior_weight": 0.1852
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "571510",
      "player_name": "Matthew Boyd",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHC",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 9.0,
            "predicted_HR": 3.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 9.0,
            "predicted_HR": 3.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 9.0,
              "after": 9.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 9.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 3.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CHC",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 89,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.5494,
        "runs_scored": 850.0,
        "runs_allowed": 703.0,
        "run_differential": 147.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.9074,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.2469,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3395,
        "offense_index": 1.1673,
        "defense_index": 1.0358,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.3,
          "run_differential": 8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.153
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SD",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 91,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.5617,
        "runs_scored": 722.0,
        "runs_allowed": 681.0,
        "run_differential": 41.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2531,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4568,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2037,
        "offense_index": 0.9915,
        "defense_index": 1.0693,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": 18.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1884
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0354,
        "offense_edge": 0.1673,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0085,
        "defense_strength": 0.0358,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0693,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0,
        "run_prevention": 0.9968,
        "strikeout": 0.9996
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "571510",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "571510",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 473.0,
            "k_percent": 18.5,
            "bb_percent": 7.5,
            "woba": 0.303,
            "xwoba": 0.33,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.1423,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9352,
            "whiff_percent": 22.3,
            "swing_percent": 49.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1499,
            "command_and_miss": -0.2914,
            "regression_edge": -0.7714,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.5143,
            "barrel_edge": -0.1111,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.0429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4143,
            "bb_edge": 0.425,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.2702
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "571510",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 94,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 94,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 85.0398205022295,
              "release_spin_rate": 2211.404515069364,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 94,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 85.0398205022295,
                "release_spin_rate": 2211.404515069364,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 85.0398,
              "release_spin_rate": 2211.4045,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.2702,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.9297,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2585,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.022,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9629,
          "walk_factor": 0.966,
          "homer_factor": 1.0226,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.027,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "571510",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.022,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.022,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.966,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0226,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9629,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 9,
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 3,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 29,
      "Pitches": 117,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -6 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260929_CHC@SD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260929

20260929_CHC@SD

home

Michael King

True

5.2

7.0

-3

5/1

2/3

5/8

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.210810810810811,
      "WHIP": 1.1783783783783783,
      "IP": 185.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 32,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.781,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.8,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0886,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0075,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9897,
      "walk_factor": 1.0,
      "homer_factor": 0.9966,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.0,
      "bb_percent": 9.2,
      "woba": 0.295,
      "xwoba": 0.322,
      "barrel_percent": 8.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 32.7,
      "whiff_percent": 24.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 17,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 32.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8649,
        "prior_weight": 0.1351
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "650633",
      "report_date": "20260929",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 32,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 29.0,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 24.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 121.0,
            "Pitches": 473.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 24.2,
            "Pitches": 94.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1034,
            "WHIP": 1.2414,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.34483,
            "H_per_IP": 0.89655,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34483,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.82759,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06897
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 59.2,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 51.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 50.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 242.0,
            "Pitches": 951.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.9,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 5.1,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 24.2,
            "Pitches": 95.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.8659,
            "WHIP": 1.1899,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.31844,
            "H_per_IP": 0.85475,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3352,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.83799,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11732
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 32,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 185.0,
            "ER": 66.0,
            "R": 68.0,
            "H": 148.0,
            "BB": 70.0,
            "SO": 159.0,
            "HR": 20.0,
            "BF": 757.0,
            "Pitches": 2981.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.0625,
            "R": 2.125,
            "H": 4.625,
            "BB": 2.1875,
            "SO": 4.9688,
            "HR": 0.625,
            "BF": 23.6562,
            "Pitches": 93.1562
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.2108,
            "WHIP": 1.1784,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.35676,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37838,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.85946,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10811
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.086,
        "predicted_H": 5.07,
        "predicted_BB": 2.032,
        "predicted_SO": 4.907,
        "predicted_HR": 0.584,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.2544,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2314
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4071,
      "form_weight": 0.5929,
      "form_reliability": 0.8649,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 32.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8649,
        "prior_weight": 0.1351
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.086,
          "final": 2.4581,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.07,
          "final": 5.0415,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.032,
          "final": 2.019,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.907,
          "final": 4.1307,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.584,
          "final": 1.1604,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.2544,
          "final": 3.2544,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2314,
          "final": 1.2314,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 59.2,
        "ER": 19,
        "H": 51,
        "BB": 20,
        "SO": 50,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 2.865921787709497,
        "WHIP": 1.1899441340782122,
        "K9": 7.541899441340782,
        "HR9": 1.0558659217877093,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 8,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-22T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8126052033333923,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 32.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8649,
          "prior_weight": 0.1351
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "650633",
      "player_name": "Michael King",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.6667,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 3,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 2,
            "better_metrics": 2,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.6667,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.2,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.6667,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.6667,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SD",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 91,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.5617,
        "runs_scored": 722.0,
        "runs_allowed": 681.0,
        "run_differential": 41.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2531,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4568,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2037,
        "offense_index": 0.9915,
        "defense_index": 1.0693,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": 18.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1884
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CHC",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 89,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.5494,
        "runs_scored": 850.0,
        "runs_allowed": 703.0,
        "run_differential": 147.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.9074,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.2469,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3395,
        "offense_index": 1.1673,
        "defense_index": 1.0358,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.3,
          "run_differential": 8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.153
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0354,
        "offense_edge": -0.0085,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1673,
        "defense_strength": 0.0693,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0358,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9968,
        "run_prevention": 1.0181,
        "strikeout": 0.9877
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "650633",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "650633",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 730.0,
            "k_percent": 21.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.295,
            "xwoba": 0.322,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 32.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.9245,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.0549,
            "whiff_percent": 24.5,
            "swing_percent": 46.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0356,
            "command_and_miss": -0.1057,
            "regression_edge": -0.7714,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.2857,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2222,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.7429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.1,
            "bb_edge": 0.0,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0483
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "650633",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 98,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 98,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.00166640531685,
              "release_spin_rate": 2291.8143101549963,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 98,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.00166640531685,
                "release_spin_rate": 2291.8143101549963,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.0017,
              "release_spin_rate": 2291.8143,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0483,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.345,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0886,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0075,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9897,
          "walk_factor": 1.0,
          "homer_factor": 0.9966,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.027,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "650633",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0075,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0075,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9966,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9897,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 97,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -4."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 3 ER."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260929_CHC@SD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260929

20260929_CHW@HOU

away

Hagen Smith

True

5.0

3.0

-6

-1

3/2

1/0

6/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 0.9642857142857143,
      "WHIP": 0.9285714285714286,
      "IP": 28.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 17,
      "role_avg_IP": 2.0,
      "recent_avg_IP": 2.0,
      "last_start_IP": 2.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.4802,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9592,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0674,
      "walk_factor": 1.0477,
      "homer_factor": 0.921,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 37.3,
      "bb_percent": 14.5,
      "woba": 0.211,
      "xwoba": 0.243,
      "barrel_percent": 1.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.0,
      "whiff_percent": 36.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 144,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.0,
      "season_IP": 28.0,
      "season_ERA": 0.964,
      "season_WHIP": 0.929,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 5.762,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5354,
        "prior_weight": 0.4646
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "696146",
      "report_date": "20260929",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 17,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 3.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 9.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 27.0,
            "Pitches": 119.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.1,
            "ER": 0.6,
            "R": 0.6,
            "H": 0.6,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 1.8,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 5.4,
            "Pitches": 23.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5,
            "WHIP": 1.5,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5,
            "H_per_IP": 0.5,
            "BB_per_IP": 1.0,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.5,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 17.0,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 8.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 25.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 64.0,
            "Pitches": 260.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.2,
            "ER": 0.3,
            "R": 0.3,
            "H": 0.8,
            "BB": 0.6,
            "SO": 2.5,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 6.4,
            "Pitches": 26.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.5882,
            "WHIP": 0.8235,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.17647,
            "H_per_IP": 0.47059,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35294,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.47059,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 17,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.0,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 10.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 41.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 109.0,
            "Pitches": 465.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.2,
            "ER": 0.1765,
            "R": 0.1765,
            "H": 0.5882,
            "BB": 0.9412,
            "SO": 2.4118,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 6.4118,
            "Pitches": 27.3529
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 0.9643,
            "WHIP": 0.9286,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.10714,
            "H_per_IP": 0.35714,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.57143,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.46429,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 3.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.264,
        "predicted_H": 2.208,
        "predicted_BB": 1.706,
        "predicted_SO": 3.851,
        "predicted_HR": 0.217,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.6297,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2485
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5463,
      "form_weight": 0.4537,
      "form_reliability": 0.5354,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 5.762,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5354,
        "prior_weight": 0.4646
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.0,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.264,
          "final": 1.1198,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.208,
          "final": 2.6407,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.706,
          "final": 1.3203,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 3.851,
          "final": 5.025,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.217,
          "final": 1.191,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.6297,
          "final": 3.6297,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2485,
          "final": 1.2485,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 17.0,
        "ER": 3,
        "H": 8,
        "BB": 6,
        "SO": 25,
        "HR": 0,
        "ERA": 1.588235294117647,
        "WHIP": 0.8235294117647058,
        "K9": 13.235294117647058,
        "HR9": 0.0,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": true,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-25T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8065493996415093,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 5.762,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.5354,
          "prior_weight": 0.4646
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "696146",
      "player_name": "Hagen Smith",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHW",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "after": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": -1.0,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": -2.0,
              "percent_delta": -1.0,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
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              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "boost",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "after": 6.0,
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              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_boost": {
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              "percent_delta": null,
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              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CHW",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 84,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.5185,
        "runs_scored": 776.0,
        "runs_allowed": 720.0,
        "run_differential": 56.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3457,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7901,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4444,
        "offense_index": 1.0659,
        "defense_index": 1.0111,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": 22.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.128
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "HOU",
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        "wins": 81,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.5,
        "runs_scored": 734.0,
        "runs_allowed": 766.0,
        "run_differential": -32.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1975,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5309,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7284,
        "offense_index": 1.0082,
        "defense_index": 0.9504,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
          "run_differential": 22.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0242
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1522,
        "offense_edge": 0.0659,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0082,
        "defense_strength": 0.0111,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0496,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0061,
        "run_prevention": 0.9926,
        "strikeout": 1.0039
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "696146",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "696146",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 90.0,
            "k_percent": 37.3,
            "bb_percent": 14.5,
            "woba": 0.211,
            "xwoba": 0.243,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 1.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 34.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.8598,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.4182,
            "whiff_percent": 36.2,
            "swing_percent": 42.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 1.4882,
            "command_and_miss": 1.2621,
            "regression_edge": -0.9143,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.9714,
            "barrel_edge": 1.1778,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.5571,
            "whiff_edge": 1.5714,
            "bb_edge": -1.325,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0374
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "696146",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 28,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 28,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.19609326567674,
              "release_spin_rate": 2396.9610928315874,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 28,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.19609326567674,
                "release_spin_rate": 2396.9610928315874,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.1961,
              "release_spin_rate": 2396.9611,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0374,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.2672,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.4802,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9592,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0674,
          "walk_factor": 1.0477,
          "homer_factor": 0.921,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.032,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "696146",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9816,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9816,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0215,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9645,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0303,
            "adjusted": 7
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 76,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -6 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260929_CHW@HOU.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260929

20260929_CHW@HOU

home

AJ Blubaugh

True

5.0

0.2

-13

2/0

0/3

4/0

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.65625,
      "WHIP": 1.2291666666666667,
      "IP": 96.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 64,
      "role_avg_IP": 3.333,
      "recent_avg_IP": 3.333,
      "last_start_IP": 3.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0992,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0084,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.024,
      "walk_factor": 1.026,
      "homer_factor": 1.0543,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.4,
      "bb_percent": 10.5,
      "woba": 0.306,
      "xwoba": 0.317,
      "barrel_percent": 10.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.0,
      "whiff_percent": 28.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 172,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.0,
      "season_IP": 96.0,
      "season_ERA": 3.656,
      "season_WHIP": 1.229,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 19.755,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.798,
        "prior_weight": 0.202
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "805123",
      "report_date": "20260929",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 64,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 6.0,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 3.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 23.0,
            "Pitches": 88.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 1.2,
            "R": 1.2,
            "H": 0.8,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 0.6,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 4.6,
            "Pitches": 17.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 10.8,
            "WHIP": 1.6,
            "ER_per_IP": 1.2,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.8,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.6,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.2
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 9.2,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 10.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 7.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 46.0,
            "Pitches": 186.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.0,
            "H": 1.0,
            "BB": 0.7,
            "SO": 0.7,
            "HR": 0.3,
            "BF": 4.6,
            "Pitches": 18.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 9.3103,
            "WHIP": 1.7586,
            "ER_per_IP": 1.03448,
            "H_per_IP": 1.03448,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.72414,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.72414,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.31034
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 64,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 96.0,
            "ER": 39.0,
            "R": 41.0,
            "H": 76.0,
            "BB": 42.0,
            "SO": 94.0,
            "HR": 13.0,
            "BF": 401.0,
            "Pitches": 1640.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.1,
            "ER": 0.6094,
            "R": 0.6406,
            "H": 1.1875,
            "BB": 0.6562,
            "SO": 1.4688,
            "HR": 0.2031,
            "BF": 6.2656,
            "Pitches": 25.625
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6562,
            "WHIP": 1.2292,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.40625,
            "H_per_IP": 0.79167,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.4375,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.97917,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13542
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 2.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.653,
        "predicted_H": 1.678,
        "predicted_BB": 1.183,
        "predicted_SO": 1.42,
        "predicted_HR": 0.391,
        "predicted_ERA": 7.9946,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.5373
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4353,
      "form_weight": 0.5647,
      "form_reliability": 0.798,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 19.755,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.798,
        "prior_weight": 0.202
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 2.0,
          "final": 3.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.653,
          "final": 0.9334,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.678,
          "final": 1.8182,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.183,
          "final": 0.668,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.42,
          "final": 2.5432,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.391,
          "final": 0.2208,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 7.9946,
          "final": 7.9946,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.5373,
          "final": 1.5373,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 9.2,
        "ER": 10,
        "H": 10,
        "BB": 7,
        "SO": 7,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 9.310344827586208,
        "WHIP": 1.7586206896551726,
        "K9": 6.517241379310345,
        "HR9": 2.793103448275862,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-25T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.1783773375379702,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 0.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 19.755,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.798,
          "prior_weight": 0.202
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "805123",
      "player_name": "AJ Blubaugh",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "HOU",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 0.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
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            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "percent_delta": null,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 81,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.5,
        "runs_scored": 734.0,
        "runs_allowed": 766.0,
        "run_differential": -32.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1975,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5309,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7284,
        "offense_index": 1.0082,
        "defense_index": 0.9504,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
          "run_differential": 22.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0242
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CHW",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 84,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.5185,
        "runs_scored": 776.0,
        "runs_allowed": 720.0,
        "run_differential": 56.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3457,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7901,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4444,
        "offense_index": 1.0659,
        "defense_index": 1.0111,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": 22.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.128
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1522,
        "offense_edge": 0.0082,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0659,
        "defense_strength": -0.0496,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0111,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9898,
        "run_prevention": 1.0231,
        "strikeout": 0.9902
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "805123",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "805123",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 368.0,
            "k_percent": 23.4,
            "bb_percent": 10.5,
            "woba": 0.306,
            "xwoba": 0.317,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 37.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 10.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.2025,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8711,
            "whiff_percent": 28.1,
            "swing_percent": 48.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.197,
            "command_and_miss": 0.1636,
            "regression_edge": -0.3143,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.1429,
            "barrel_edge": -0.6889,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.1286,
            "whiff_edge": 0.4143,
            "bb_edge": -0.325,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": false,
            "pitcher_id": "805123",
            "reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0992,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0084,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.024,
          "walk_factor": 1.026,
          "homer_factor": 1.0543,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.011,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "805123",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0084,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0084,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.026,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0543,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.024,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 0,
      "predicted_ER": 0,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 17,
      "Pitches": 79,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -13 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260929_CHW@HOU.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260929

20260929_PHI@ATL

away

Jesús Luzardo

True

6.2

5.0

-5

-2

8/3

0/1

7/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.8552875695732842,
      "WHIP": 1.0742115027829313,
      "IP": 179.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 30,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.161,
      "recent_avg_IP": 7.0,
      "last_start_IP": 9.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.8001,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.932,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0851,
      "walk_factor": 0.958,
      "homer_factor": 0.9063,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 30.3,
      "bb_percent": 7.1,
      "woba": 0.274,
      "xwoba": 0.261,
      "barrel_percent": 5.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.2,
      "whiff_percent": 31.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": null,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "666200",
      "report_date": "20260929",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 30,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 29.1,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 5.0,
            "H": 14.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 36.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 109.0,
            "Pitches": 426.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 0.6,
            "R": 1.0,
            "H": 2.8,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 7.2,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 21.8,
            "Pitches": 85.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 0.9205,
            "WHIP": 0.6818,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.10227,
            "H_per_IP": 0.47727,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.20455,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.22727,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10227
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 64.1,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 39.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 78.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 247.0,
            "Pitches": 938.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.3,
            "R": 1.5,
            "H": 3.9,
            "BB": 1.5,
            "SO": 7.8,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 24.7,
            "Pitches": 93.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.8187,
            "WHIP": 0.8394,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.20207,
            "H_per_IP": 0.60622,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23316,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.21244,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07772
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 30,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 179.2,
            "ER": 57.0,
            "R": 65.0,
            "H": 141.0,
            "BB": 52.0,
            "SO": 221.0,
            "HR": 15.0,
            "BF": 730.0,
            "Pitches": 2864.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.9,
            "R": 2.1667,
            "H": 4.7,
            "BB": 1.7333,
            "SO": 7.3667,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 24.3333,
            "Pitches": 95.4667
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.8553,
            "WHIP": 1.0742,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.31725,
            "H_per_IP": 0.78479,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28942,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.23006,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08349
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.411,
        "predicted_H": 3.972,
        "predicted_BB": 1.565,
        "predicted_SO": 7.32,
        "predicted_HR": 0.609,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.0497,
        "predicted_WHIP": 0.8937
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4104,
      "form_weight": 0.5896,
      "form_reliability": 0.8571,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.2,
          "form": 6.1,
          "final": 6.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.411,
          "final": 1.6527,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 3.972,
          "final": 5.625,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.565,
          "final": 0.9228,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 7.32,
          "final": 6.3679,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.609,
          "final": 0.3591,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
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        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.0497,
          "final": 2.0497,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 0.8937,
          "final": 0.8937,
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      "pitching": {
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        "SO": 78,
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      "fielding": {
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-27T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.6877574755100718,
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        "stats": {
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        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 30.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8571,
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.2,
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          "predicted_H": 8,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 0
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "666200",
      "player_name": "Jes\u00fas Luzardo",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PHI",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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              "percent_delta": -0.07,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.4,
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              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_deboost": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
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            {
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          ],
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
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          {
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          {
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          {
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        ],
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 88,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.5432,
        "runs_scored": 713.0,
        "runs_allowed": 698.0,
        "run_differential": 15.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0926,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4012,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3086,
        "offense_index": 0.9791,
        "defense_index": 1.0433,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8,
          "run_differential": -16.0
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        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0131
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      "opponent": {
        "team": "ATL",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 94,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.5802,
        "runs_scored": 742.0,
        "runs_allowed": 626.0,
        "run_differential": 116.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.716,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5802,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8642,
        "offense_index": 1.019,
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        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
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          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": 1.0
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        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1558
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      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1427,
        "offense_edge": -0.0209,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.019,
        "defense_strength": 0.0433,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1633,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9948,
        "run_prevention": 1.0058,
        "strikeout": 0.9942
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "666200",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "666200",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 720.0,
            "k_percent": 30.3,
            "bb_percent": 7.1,
            "woba": 0.274,
            "xwoba": 0.261,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 33.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.4214,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.1543,
            "whiff_percent": 31.9,
            "swing_percent": 46.3
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.9078,
            "command_and_miss": 0.9671,
            "regression_edge": 0.3714,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.4571,
            "barrel_edge": 0.2889,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.6714,
            "whiff_edge": 0.9571,
            "bb_edge": 0.525,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0394
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "666200",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 106,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 106,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.56721551683269,
              "release_spin_rate": 2205.1938100088837,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 106,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.56721551683269,
                "release_spin_rate": 2205.1938100088837,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.5672,
              "release_spin_rate": 2205.1938,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0394,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.2812,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.8001,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.932,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0851,
          "walk_factor": 0.958,
          "homer_factor": 0.9063,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.013,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "666200",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.932,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.932,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.958,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9063,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 8.0,
            "factor": 1.0851,
            "adjusted": 9
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      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.2,
      "predicted_H": 8,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 28,
      "Pitches": 108,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -5."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260929_PHI@ATL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260929

20260929_PHI@ATL

home

Chris Sale

True

6.1

5/4

3/1

8/9

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.1577868852459017,
      "WHIP": 0.9836065573770493,
      "IP": 162.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.025,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.733,
      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.7138,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9393,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.08,
      "walk_factor": 0.912,
      "homer_factor": 0.9277,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 30.9,
      "bb_percent": 4.8,
      "woba": 0.259,
      "xwoba": 0.267,
      "barrel_percent": 6.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.1,
      "whiff_percent": 30.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 9,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "519242",
      "report_date": "20260929",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 33.2,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 40.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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            "H_per_IP": 0.77228,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.08911,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.18812,
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        },
        "last_10": {
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          "per_game": {
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            "SO_per_IP": 1.28351,
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        },
        "season": {
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          "per_game": {
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            "SO_per_IP": 1.22951,
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      "blend_segments": {},
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    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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        "prior_size": 5.0,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
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        "AVG": 0,
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        "hot_streak": false,
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      "pitching": {
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        "games_pitched": 10,
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        "dominant_form": true,
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      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-23T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.7150151411321597,
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          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "team": "ATL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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        {
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          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
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          "has_material_change": true,
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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        "win_pct": 0.5802,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.716,
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      "opponent": {
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0926,
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          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8,
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        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0131
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": 0.019,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0209,
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        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0433,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "519242",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "519242",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "k_percent": 30.9,
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            "xwoba": 0.267,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.3,
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          "league_medians": {
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          "components": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "519242",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 101,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 101,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.69431015805822,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.6943,
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              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.7138,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9393,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9393,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.912,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9277,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 8.0,
            "factor": 1.08,
            "adjusted": 9
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.1,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 27,
      "Pitches": 119,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260929_PHI@ATL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260930

20260930_BOS@NYY

away

Sonny Gray

True

6.0

4.2

-4

-1

10/6

0/0

4/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.7159763313609466,
      "WHIP": 1.1479289940828403,
      "IP": 169.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 29,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.828,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.067,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0518,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9956,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9863,
      "walk_factor": 0.95,
      "homer_factor": 0.9892,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.8,
      "bb_percent": 6.7,
      "woba": 0.293,
      "xwoba": 0.303,
      "barrel_percent": 6.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.3,
      "whiff_percent": 23.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": null,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "543243",
      "report_date": "20260930",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 29,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.1,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 23.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 26.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 120.0,
            "Pitches": 454.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 24.0,
            "Pitches": 90.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.3736,
            "WHIP": 1.0879,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.26374,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75824,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.32967,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.85714,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03297
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 62.1,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 52.0,
            "BB": 18.0,
            "SO": 56.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 252.0,
            "Pitches": 916.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 5.6,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 25.2,
            "Pitches": 91.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.5989,
            "WHIP": 1.123,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.28877,
            "H_per_IP": 0.83422,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28877,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.8984,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06417
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 29,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 169.0,
            "ER": 51.0,
            "R": 52.0,
            "H": 148.0,
            "BB": 46.0,
            "SO": 149.0,
            "HR": 16.0,
            "BF": 683.0,
            "Pitches": 2474.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.7586,
            "R": 1.7931,
            "H": 5.1034,
            "BB": 1.5862,
            "SO": 5.1379,
            "HR": 0.5517,
            "BF": 23.5517,
            "Pitches": 85.3103
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.716,
            "WHIP": 1.1479,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.30178,
            "H_per_IP": 0.87574,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.27219,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.88166,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09467
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.899,
        "predicted_H": 5.041,
        "predicted_BB": 1.902,
        "predicted_SO": 5.349,
        "predicted_HR": 0.422,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.8289,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.149
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4121,
      "form_weight": 0.5879,
      "form_reliability": 0.8529,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.899,
          "final": 2.7649,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 11.0,
          "form": 5.041,
          "final": 7.497,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.902,
          "final": 1.1181,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.349,
          "final": 4.793,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.422,
          "final": 1.0724,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.8289,
          "final": 2.8289,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.149,
          "final": 1.149,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 62.1,
        "ER": 18,
        "H": 52,
        "BB": 18,
        "SO": 56,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 2.5989304812834226,
        "WHIP": 1.1229946524064172,
        "K9": 8.085561497326204,
        "HR9": 0.5775401069518717,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 7,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-23T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.781067460270328,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 11.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 29.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8529,
          "prior_weight": 0.1471
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 11,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "543243",
      "player_name": "Sonny Gray",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "BOS",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 11.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 11.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 11.0,
              "after": 11.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.25,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 3,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 2,
            "better_metrics": 3,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
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              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.25,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 10.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 11.0,
              "after": 10.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.0909,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.2,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.0909,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.5,
            "direction": "deboost",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "deboosted_metrics": 3,
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          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "before": 4.0,
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            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "BOS",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 87,
        "losses": 75,
        "win_pct": 0.537,
        "runs_scored": 689.0,
        "runs_allowed": 611.0,
        "run_differential": 78.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.4815,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2531,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7716,
        "offense_index": 0.9464,
        "defense_index": 1.1915,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 2.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.5,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0904
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      "opponent": {
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        "games": 161,
        "wins": 93,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.5776,
        "runs_scored": 739.0,
        "runs_allowed": 601.0,
        "run_differential": 138.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8571,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5901,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7329,
        "offense_index": 1.0214,
        "defense_index": 1.2039,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1709
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0805,
        "offense_edge": -0.0536,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0214,
        "defense_strength": 0.1915,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.2039,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0017,
        "run_prevention": 0.9883,
        "strikeout": 0.9959
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "543243",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "543243",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "k_percent": 21.8,
            "bb_percent": 6.7,
            "woba": 0.293,
            "xwoba": 0.303,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.3,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.8696,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8901,
            "whiff_percent": 23.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.1629,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0007,
            "regression_edge": -0.2857,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.2571,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0667,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0571,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3,
            "bb_edge": 0.625,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1371
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "543243",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 95,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 95,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.41606766331542,
              "release_spin_rate": 2505.1386844908457,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 95,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.41606766331542,
                "release_spin_rate": 2505.1386844908457,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.4161,
              "release_spin_rate": 2505.1387,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1371,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.9794,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0518,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9956,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9863,
          "walk_factor": 0.95,
          "homer_factor": 0.9892,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.01,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "543243",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9956,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9956,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.95,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9892,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9863,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 10,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 28,
      "Pitches": 106,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -4."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260930_BOS@NYY.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260930

20260930_BOS@NYY

home

Max Fried

True

6.0

2/3

1/1

5/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.79585798816568,
      "WHIP": 0.9940828402366864,
      "IP": 112.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 20,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.633,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.267,
      "last_start_IP": 6.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.8584,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.927,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0097,
      "walk_factor": 0.968,
      "homer_factor": 0.8118,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 24.0,
      "bb_percent": 7.6,
      "woba": 0.245,
      "xwoba": 0.246,
      "barrel_percent": 2.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 29.8,
      "whiff_percent": 25.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": null,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 6.0,
      "season_IP": 112.2,
      "season_ERA": 2.796,
      "season_WHIP": 0.994,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 20.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8,
        "prior_weight": 0.2
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "608331",
      "report_date": "20260930",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 20,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.1,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 25.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 102.0,
            "Pitches": 400.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 20.4,
            "Pitches": 80.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7342,
            "WHIP": 0.9873,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3038,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75949,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.22785,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.94937,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07595
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 51.0,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 36.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 54.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 194.0,
            "Pitches": 779.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.3,
            "R": 1.3,
            "H": 3.6,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 5.4,
            "HR": 0.3,
            "BF": 19.4,
            "Pitches": 77.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.2941,
            "WHIP": 0.9804,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.2549,
            "H_per_IP": 0.70588,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.27451,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.05882,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.05882
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 20,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 112.2,
            "ER": 35.0,
            "R": 35.0,
            "H": 79.0,
            "BB": 33.0,
            "SO": 104.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 434.0,
            "Pitches": 1696.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.75,
            "R": 1.75,
            "H": 3.95,
            "BB": 1.65,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 21.7,
            "Pitches": 84.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7959,
            "WHIP": 0.9941,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.31065,
            "H_per_IP": 0.70118,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2929,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.92308,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0355
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.807,
        "predicted_H": 4.233,
        "predicted_BB": 1.527,
        "predicted_SO": 5.281,
        "predicted_HR": 0.43,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.997,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0614
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4345,
      "form_weight": 0.5655,
      "form_reliability": 0.8,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 20.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8,
        "prior_weight": 0.2
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.807,
          "final": 1.0219,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.233,
          "final": 3.2628,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.527,
          "final": 1.298,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.281,
          "final": 4.7244,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.43,
          "final": 0.2432,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.997,
          "final": 2.997,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0614,
          "final": 1.0614,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 51.0,
        "ER": 13,
        "H": 36,
        "BB": 14,
        "SO": 54,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 2.2941176470588234,
        "WHIP": 0.9803921568627451,
        "K9": 9.529411764705882,
        "HR9": 0.5294117647058824,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-22T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7432109540314689,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 0.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 20.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8,
          "prior_weight": 0.2
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 0,
          "predicted_H": 2,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "608331",
      "player_name": "Max Fried",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "NYY",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.25,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
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              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.25,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 0.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.25,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.25,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "NYY",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 93,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.5776,
        "runs_scored": 739.0,
        "runs_allowed": 601.0,
        "run_differential": 138.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8571,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5901,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7329,
        "offense_index": 1.0214,
        "defense_index": 1.2039,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1709
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "BOS",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 87,
        "losses": 75,
        "win_pct": 0.537,
        "runs_scored": 689.0,
        "runs_allowed": 611.0,
        "run_differential": 78.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.4815,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2531,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7716,
        "offense_index": 0.9464,
        "defense_index": 1.1915,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 2.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.5,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0904
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0805,
        "offense_edge": 0.0214,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0536,
        "defense_strength": 0.2039,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1915,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0115,
        "run_prevention": 0.967,
        "strikeout": 1.0067
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "608331",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "608331",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 380.0,
            "k_percent": 24.0,
            "bb_percent": 7.6,
            "woba": 0.245,
            "xwoba": 0.246,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 28.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 2.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 29.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 74.5561,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 92.6087,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 46.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 1.4628,
            "command_and_miss": 0.1921,
            "regression_edge": -0.0286,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.8857,
            "barrel_edge": 1.0667,
            "hard_hit_edge": 1.1571,
            "whiff_edge": -0.0286,
            "bb_edge": 0.4,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0984
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "608331",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 75,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 75,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.10778862071564,
              "release_spin_rate": 2246.884199292124,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 75,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.10778862071564,
                "release_spin_rate": 2246.884199292124,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.1078,
              "release_spin_rate": 2246.8842,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0984,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.7027,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.8584,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.927,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0097,
          "walk_factor": 0.968,
          "homer_factor": 0.8118,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.001,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "608331",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.927,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.927,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.968,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.82,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0097,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 0,
      "predicted_ER": 0,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 86,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260930_BOS@NYY.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260930

20260930_CHC@SD

away

Kevin Gausman

True

5.2

3.1

-7

-1

7/5

0/0

9/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.50844277673546,
      "WHIP": 1.2720450281425892,
      "IP": 177.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 32,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.552,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.467,
      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1241,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9894,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.028,
      "walk_factor": 0.942,
      "homer_factor": 1.0183,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 24.5,
      "bb_percent": 6.3,
      "woba": 0.316,
      "xwoba": 0.309,
      "barrel_percent": 7.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 40.0,
      "whiff_percent": 27.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": null,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 32.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8649,
        "prior_weight": 0.1351
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "592332",
      "report_date": "20260930",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 32,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.1,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 30.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 35.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 117.0,
            "Pitches": 494.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.4,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 7.0,
            "HR": 1.6,
            "BF": 23.4,
            "Pitches": 98.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.2683,
            "WHIP": 1.3171,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.58537,
            "H_per_IP": 1.09756,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21951,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.28049,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.29268
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 56.0,
            "ER": 28.0,
            "R": 29.0,
            "H": 60.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 61.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 235.0,
            "Pitches": 957.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 2.9,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 6.1,
            "HR": 1.1,
            "BF": 23.5,
            "Pitches": 95.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5,
            "WHIP": 1.2857,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5,
            "H_per_IP": 1.07143,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21429,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.08929,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.19643
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 32,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 177.2,
            "ER": 89.0,
            "R": 96.0,
            "H": 179.0,
            "BB": 47.0,
            "SO": 184.0,
            "HR": 26.0,
            "BF": 750.0,
            "Pitches": 3003.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.7812,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.5938,
            "BB": 1.4688,
            "SO": 5.75,
            "HR": 0.8125,
            "BF": 23.4375,
            "Pitches": 93.8438
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5084,
            "WHIP": 1.272,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.50094,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0075,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26454,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.03565,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14634
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.963,
        "predicted_H": 5.862,
        "predicted_BB": 1.368,
        "predicted_SO": 6.277,
        "predicted_HR": 1.211,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.816,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3059
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4071,
      "form_weight": 0.5929,
      "form_reliability": 0.8649,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 32.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8649,
        "prior_weight": 0.1351
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.963,
          "final": 2.9781,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 5.862,
          "final": 6.3253,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.368,
          "final": 0.8111,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.277,
          "final": 6.1642,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.211,
          "final": 1.5322,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.816,
          "final": 4.816,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3059,
          "final": 1.3059,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 56.0,
        "ER": 28,
        "H": 60,
        "BB": 12,
        "SO": 61,
        "HR": 11,
        "ERA": 4.5,
        "WHIP": 1.2857142857142858,
        "K9": 9.803571428571429,
        "HR9": 1.7678571428571428,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-23T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9990057719586398,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 7.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 32.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8649,
          "prior_weight": 0.1351
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "592332",
      "player_name": "Kevin Gausman",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHC",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 9.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 9.0,
              "delta": 3.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 9.0,
              "delta": 3.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 9.0,
            "delta": 3.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 9.0,
            "delta": 3.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CHC",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 89,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.5494,
        "runs_scored": 850.0,
        "runs_allowed": 703.0,
        "run_differential": 147.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.9074,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.2469,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3395,
        "offense_index": 1.1674,
        "defense_index": 1.0357,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.3,
          "run_differential": 8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.153
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SD",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 91,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.5617,
        "runs_scored": 722.0,
        "runs_allowed": 681.0,
        "run_differential": 41.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2531,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4568,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2037,
        "offense_index": 0.9916,
        "defense_index": 1.0692,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": 18.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1884
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0354,
        "offense_edge": 0.1674,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0084,
        "defense_strength": 0.0357,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0692,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0,
        "run_prevention": 0.9969,
        "strikeout": 0.9996
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "592332",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "592332",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 698.0,
            "k_percent": 24.5,
            "bb_percent": 6.3,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.309,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 40.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.1581,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.4959,
            "whiff_percent": 27.7,
            "swing_percent": 50.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.0047,
            "command_and_miss": 0.4243,
            "regression_edge": 0.2,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.0857,
            "barrel_edge": -0.1111,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.3,
            "whiff_edge": 0.3571,
            "bb_edge": 0.725,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0441
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "592332",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 98,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 98,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.07749610166415,
              "release_spin_rate": 2007.4215713814062,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 98,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.07749610166415,
                "release_spin_rate": 2007.4215713814062,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.0775,
              "release_spin_rate": 2007.4216,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0441,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.3148,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1241,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9894,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.028,
          "walk_factor": 0.942,
          "homer_factor": 1.0183,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.007,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "592332",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9894,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9894,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.942,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0183,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.028,
            "adjusted": 7
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 9,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 104,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -7 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260930_CHC@SD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260930

20260930_CHC@SD

home

Nick Pivetta

True

5.0

3.1

-5

-1

5/3

4/2

5/4

Last 10 before this game (8 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.855769230769231,
      "WHIP": 1.0096153846153846,
      "IP": 34.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 8,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.333,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.333,
      "last_start_IP": 4.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.156,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9867,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0141,
      "walk_factor": 0.9685,
      "homer_factor": 1.0105,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 30.0,
      "bb_percent": 5.7,
      "woba": 0.249,
      "xwoba": 0.277,
      "barrel_percent": 10.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.2,
      "whiff_percent": 22.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": null,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.0,
      "season_IP": 34.2,
      "season_ERA": 2.856,
      "season_WHIP": 1.01,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.6818181818181818,
        "last_10": 0.3181818181818182
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 8.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6154,
        "prior_weight": 0.3846
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "601713",
      "report_date": "20260930",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 8,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 21.2,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 15.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 83.0,
            "Pitches": 341.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 0.6,
            "R": 0.6,
            "H": 3.0,
            "BB": 0.4,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 16.6,
            "Pitches": 68.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.2462,
            "WHIP": 0.7846,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.13846,
            "H_per_IP": 0.69231,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.09231,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.01538,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09231
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 8,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 34.2,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 27.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 42.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 140.0,
            "Pitches": 578.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 1.375,
            "R": 1.375,
            "H": 3.375,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 5.25,
            "HR": 0.25,
            "BF": 17.5,
            "Pitches": 72.25
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.8558,
            "WHIP": 1.0096,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.31731,
            "H_per_IP": 0.77885,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23077,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.21154,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.05769
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 8,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 34.2,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 27.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 42.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 140.0,
            "Pitches": 578.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 1.375,
            "R": 1.375,
            "H": 3.375,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 5.25,
            "HR": 0.25,
            "BF": 17.5,
            "Pitches": 72.25
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.8558,
            "WHIP": 1.0096,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.31731,
            "H_per_IP": 0.77885,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23077,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.21154,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.05769
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.457,
        "predicted_H": 3.77,
        "predicted_BB": 1.053,
        "predicted_SO": 4.696,
        "predicted_HR": 0.492,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.8569,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0508
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5125,
      "form_weight": 0.4875,
      "form_reliability": 0.6154,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 8.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6154,
        "prior_weight": 0.3846
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.457,
          "final": 2.7603,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.77,
          "final": 4.4004,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.053,
          "final": 2.5633,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.696,
          "final": 4.8518,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.492,
          "final": 1.2648,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.8569,
          "final": 2.8569,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0508,
          "final": 1.0508,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 34.2,
        "ER": 11,
        "H": 27,
        "BB": 8,
        "SO": 42,
        "HR": 2,
        "ERA": 2.8557692307692304,
        "WHIP": 1.0096153846153846,
        "K9": 10.903846153846152,
        "HR9": 0.5192307692307692,
        "games_pitched": 8,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 8,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 8,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-24T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8071273378927056,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 8.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.6154,
          "prior_weight": 0.3846
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 4,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "601713",
      "player_name": "Nick Pivetta",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
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          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          {
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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          }
        ],
        "summary": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SD",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 91,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.5617,
        "runs_scored": 722.0,
        "runs_allowed": 681.0,
        "run_differential": 41.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2531,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4568,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2037,
        "offense_index": 0.9916,
        "defense_index": 1.0692,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": 18.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1884
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CHC",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 89,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.5494,
        "runs_scored": 850.0,
        "runs_allowed": 703.0,
        "run_differential": 147.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.9074,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.2469,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3395,
        "offense_index": 1.1674,
        "defense_index": 1.0357,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.3,
          "run_differential": 8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.153
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0354,
        "offense_edge": -0.0084,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1674,
        "defense_strength": 0.0692,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0357,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9968,
        "run_prevention": 1.0181,
        "strikeout": 0.9877
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "601713",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "601713",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 100.0,
            "k_percent": 30.0,
            "bb_percent": 5.7,
            "woba": 0.249,
            "xwoba": 0.277,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 10.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.1978,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.7991,
            "whiff_percent": 22.8,
            "swing_percent": 47.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.506,
            "command_and_miss": 0.5629,
            "regression_edge": -0.8,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.0,
            "barrel_edge": -0.6444,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3429,
            "bb_edge": 0.875,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0365
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "601713",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 66,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 66,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.21211734682227,
              "release_spin_rate": 2437.193161283574,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 66,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.21211734682227,
                "release_spin_rate": 2437.193161283574,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.2121,
              "release_spin_rate": 2437.1932,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0365,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.261,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.156,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9867,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0141,
          "walk_factor": 0.9685,
          "homer_factor": 1.0105,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.028,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "601713",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.994,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.994,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9858,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0047,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0063,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 106,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 8 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260930_CHC@SD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260930

20260930_CHW@HOU

away

Sean Burke

True

5.0

4.0

-3

8/4

1/0

5/8

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.3423597678916828,
      "WHIP": 1.195357833655706,
      "IP": 172.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 32,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.272,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.267,
      "last_start_IP": 5.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1204,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9898,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0229,
      "walk_factor": 0.99,
      "homer_factor": 1.0144,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 25.8,
      "bb_percent": 8.7,
      "woba": 0.302,
      "xwoba": 0.3,
      "barrel_percent": 8.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.8,
      "whiff_percent": 25.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": null,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 32.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8649,
        "prior_weight": 0.1351
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "680732",
      "report_date": "20260930",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 32,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.1,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 24.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 103.0,
            "Pitches": 432.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 20.6,
            "Pitches": 86.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4714,
            "WHIP": 1.4571,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.38571,
            "H_per_IP": 0.94286,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.51429,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.02857,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.04286
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 48.0,
            "ER": 22.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 44.0,
            "BB": 25.0,
            "SO": 45.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 211.0,
            "Pitches": 879.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.3,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 2.5,
            "SO": 4.5,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 21.1,
            "Pitches": 87.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.125,
            "WHIP": 1.4375,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.45833,
            "H_per_IP": 0.91667,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.52083,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.9375,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.125
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 32,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 172.1,
            "ER": 64.0,
            "R": 67.0,
            "H": 144.0,
            "BB": 62.0,
            "SO": 185.0,
            "HR": 19.0,
            "BF": 716.0,
            "Pitches": 2878.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0938,
            "H": 4.5,
            "BB": 1.9375,
            "SO": 5.7812,
            "HR": 0.5938,
            "BF": 22.375,
            "Pitches": 89.9375
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.3424,
            "WHIP": 1.1954,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.37137,
            "H_per_IP": 0.83559,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35977,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0735,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11025
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.039,
        "predicted_H": 4.45,
        "predicted_BB": 2.274,
        "predicted_SO": 4.809,
        "predicted_HR": 0.452,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.8014,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3931
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4071,
      "form_weight": 0.5929,
      "form_reliability": 0.8649,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 32.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8649,
        "prior_weight": 0.1351
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.039,
          "final": 2.0231,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 4.45,
          "final": 5.8951,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.274,
          "final": 1.7554,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.809,
          "final": 4.4797,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.452,
          "final": 0.6751,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.8014,
          "final": 3.8014,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3931,
          "final": 1.3931,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 48.0,
        "ER": 22,
        "H": 44,
        "BB": 25,
        "SO": 45,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 4.125,
        "WHIP": 1.4375,
        "K9": 8.4375,
        "HR9": 1.125,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-25T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9606129148157826,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 8.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 32.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8649,
          "prior_weight": 0.1351
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "680732",
      "player_name": "Sean Burke",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHW",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.25,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.25,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 8.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.25,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
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            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.25,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CHW",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 84,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.5185,
        "runs_scored": 776.0,
        "runs_allowed": 720.0,
        "run_differential": 56.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3457,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7901,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4444,
        "offense_index": 1.0656,
        "defense_index": 1.0114,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": 22.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.128
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 81,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.5,
        "runs_scored": 734.0,
        "runs_allowed": 766.0,
        "run_differential": -32.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1975,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5309,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7284,
        "offense_index": 1.008,
        "defense_index": 0.9507,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
          "run_differential": 22.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0242
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1522,
        "offense_edge": 0.0656,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.008,
        "defense_strength": 0.0114,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0493,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0061,
        "run_prevention": 0.9925,
        "strikeout": 1.0039
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "680732",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "680732",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 644.0,
            "k_percent": 25.8,
            "bb_percent": 8.7,
            "woba": 0.302,
            "xwoba": 0.3,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.3949,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9697,
            "whiff_percent": 25.5,
            "swing_percent": 49.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0777,
            "command_and_miss": 0.2779,
            "regression_edge": 0.0571,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.3429,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2444,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1286,
            "whiff_edge": 0.0429,
            "bb_edge": 0.125,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0129
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "680732",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 84,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 84,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.63367275202977,
              "release_spin_rate": 2515.4651388536104,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 84,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.63367275202977,
                "release_spin_rate": 2515.4651388536104,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.6337,
              "release_spin_rate": 2515.4651,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0129,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.0923,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1204,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9898,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0229,
          "walk_factor": 0.99,
          "homer_factor": 1.0144,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.002,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "680732",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9898,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9898,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.99,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0144,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0229,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 8,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 98,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -4."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260930_CHW@HOU.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260930

20260930_CHW@HOU

home

Hunter Brown

True

5.2

0.2

-15

7/5

2/1

7/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.186335403726708,
      "WHIP": 1.2670807453416149,
      "IP": 107.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 20,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.367,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.267,
      "last_start_IP": 5.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.4695,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9601,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0394,
      "walk_factor": 1.06,
      "homer_factor": 0.9472,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 27.5,
      "bb_percent": 12.2,
      "woba": 0.289,
      "xwoba": 0.282,
      "barrel_percent": 6.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.9,
      "whiff_percent": 26.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": null,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 107.1,
      "season_ERA": 3.186,
      "season_WHIP": 1.267,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 20.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8,
        "prior_weight": 0.2
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "686613",
      "report_date": "20260930",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 20,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.1,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 38.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 111.0,
            "Pitches": 480.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 7.6,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 22.2,
            "Pitches": 96.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7342,
            "WHIP": 1.1772,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3038,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75949,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.41772,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.44304,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03797
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 54.2,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 43.0,
            "BB": 25.0,
            "SO": 69.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 228.0,
            "Pitches": 955.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.3,
            "BB": 2.5,
            "SO": 6.9,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 22.8,
            "Pitches": 95.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.9634,
            "WHIP": 1.2439,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.32927,
            "H_per_IP": 0.78659,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.45732,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.2622,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09146
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 20,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 107.1,
            "ER": 38.0,
            "R": 42.0,
            "H": 81.0,
            "BB": 55.0,
            "SO": 124.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 451.0,
            "Pitches": 1881.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.9,
            "R": 2.1,
            "H": 4.05,
            "BB": 2.75,
            "SO": 6.2,
            "HR": 0.55,
            "BF": 22.55,
            "Pitches": 94.05
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1863,
            "WHIP": 1.2671,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.35404,
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            "SO_per_IP": 1.15528,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10248
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.948,
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        "predicted_BB": 2.355,
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        "predicted_ERA": 3.2468,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2473
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
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      "form_weight": 0.5655,
      "form_reliability": 0.8,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 20.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8,
        "prior_weight": 0.2
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.948,
          "final": 2.4051,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 4.381,
          "final": 5.519,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.355,
          "final": 2.2008,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 6.723,
          "final": 4.6709,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.461,
          "final": 0.2607,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.2468,
          "final": 3.2468,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2473,
          "final": 1.2473,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 54.2,
        "ER": 18,
        "H": 43,
        "BB": 25,
        "SO": 69,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 2.963414634146341,
        "WHIP": 1.2439024390243902,
        "K9": 11.359756097560975,
        "HR9": 0.823170731707317,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-25T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8250946221328557,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
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          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 20.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8,
          "prior_weight": 0.2
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 7,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 0
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "686613",
      "player_name": "Hunter Brown",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "HOU",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
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          "stats": {
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            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
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            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
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          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
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              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 5.0,
              "percent_delta": 2.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
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            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "percent_delta": 2.5,
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            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
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              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
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            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.2,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "percent_delta": null,
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            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 5.0,
            "percent_delta": 2.5,
            "direction": "boost",
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          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
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          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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            "delta": 5.0,
            "percent_delta": 2.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 81,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.5,
        "runs_scored": 734.0,
        "runs_allowed": 766.0,
        "run_differential": -32.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1975,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5309,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7284,
        "offense_index": 1.008,
        "defense_index": 0.9507,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
          "run_differential": 22.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0242
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CHW",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 84,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.5185,
        "runs_scored": 776.0,
        "runs_allowed": 720.0,
        "run_differential": 56.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3457,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7901,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4444,
        "offense_index": 1.0656,
        "defense_index": 1.0114,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": 22.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.128
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1522,
        "offense_edge": 0.008,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0656,
        "defense_strength": -0.0493,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0114,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9898,
        "run_prevention": 1.023,
        "strikeout": 0.9902
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "686613",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "686613",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 386.0,
            "k_percent": 27.5,
            "bb_percent": 12.2,
            "woba": 0.289,
            "xwoba": 0.282,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 27.6,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 36.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 74.1859,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.2534,
            "whiff_percent": 26.7,
            "swing_percent": 42.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.6565,
            "command_and_miss": 0.2721,
            "regression_edge": 0.2,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.8571,
            "barrel_edge": 0.2667,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.1429,
            "whiff_edge": 0.2143,
            "bb_edge": -0.75,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1385
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "686613",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 97,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 97,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.33714491013515,
              "release_spin_rate": 2193.36097163242,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 97,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.33714491013515,
                "release_spin_rate": 2193.36097163242,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.3371,
              "release_spin_rate": 2193.361,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1385,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.9891,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.4695,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9601,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0394,
          "walk_factor": 1.06,
          "homer_factor": 0.9472,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.007,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "686613",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9601,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9601,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.06,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9472,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0394,
            "adjusted": 7
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 28,
      "Pitches": 102,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -15 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260930_CHW@HOU.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260930

20260930_PHI@ATL

away

Cristopher Sánchez

True

6.1

6.2

5/6

1/5

5/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.9130434782608696,
      "WHIP": 1.2028985507246377,
      "IP": 207.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 33,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.273,
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              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 93,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.3783652742236,
                "release_spin_rate": 2082.1207290628663,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.3784,
              "release_spin_rate": 2082.1207,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0288,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.2055,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.4376,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9628,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0629,
          "walk_factor": 0.922,
          "homer_factor": 1.0056,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.011,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "650911",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9628,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 0.9628,
            "adjusted": 7
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.922,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0056,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0629,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.1,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 101,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260930_PHI@ATL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260930

20260930_PHI@ATL

home

Tyler Mahle

True

6.0

7.0

2/6

2/1

8/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.9865771812080535,
      "WHIP": 1.2348993288590604,
      "IP": 149.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.519,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.133,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.046,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9961,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.988,
      "walk_factor": 0.966,
      "homer_factor": 0.9832,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.3,
      "bb_percent": 7.5,
      "woba": 0.311,
      "xwoba": 0.306,
      "barrel_percent": 6.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.1,
      "whiff_percent": 22.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": null,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "641816",
      "report_date": "20260930",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.2,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 25.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 117.0,
            "Pitches": 469.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 23.4,
            "Pitches": 93.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.3478,
            "WHIP": 0.913,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.26087,
            "H_per_IP": 0.78261,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.13043,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.81522,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13043
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 60.0,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 48.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 57.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 235.0,
            "Pitches": 923.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.7,
            "R": 1.9,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 1.1,
            "SO": 5.7,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 23.5,
            "Pitches": 92.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.55,
            "WHIP": 0.9833,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.28333,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.18333,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.95,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11667
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 27,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 149.0,
            "ER": 66.0,
            "R": 69.0,
            "H": 138.0,
            "BB": 46.0,
            "SO": 137.0,
            "HR": 20.0,
            "BF": 614.0,
            "Pitches": 2402.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.4444,
            "R": 2.5556,
            "H": 5.1111,
            "BB": 1.7037,
            "SO": 5.0741,
            "HR": 0.7407,
            "BF": 22.7407,
            "Pitches": 88.963
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9866,
            "WHIP": 1.2349,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44295,
            "H_per_IP": 0.92617,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30872,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.91946,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13423
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.006,
        "predicted_H": 5.013,
        "predicted_BB": 1.277,
        "predicted_SO": 5.299,
        "predicted_HR": 0.772,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.0382,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0582
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.416,
      "form_weight": 0.584,
      "form_reliability": 0.8438,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.006,
          "final": 1.1715,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 5.013,
          "final": 3.7596,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.277,
          "final": 1.5778,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 5.299,
          "final": 6.4226,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.772,
          "final": 0.4509,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.0382,
          "final": 3.0382,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0582,
          "final": 1.0582,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 60.0,
        "ER": 17,
        "H": 48,
        "BB": 11,
        "SO": 57,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 2.55,
        "WHIP": 0.9833333333333333,
        "K9": 8.55,
        "HR9": 1.05,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 7,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-24T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7720712481491159,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 0.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 8.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 27.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8438,
          "prior_weight": 0.1562
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "641816",
      "player_name": "Tyler Mahle",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ATL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 0.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 8.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "ATL",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 94,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.5802,
        "runs_scored": 742.0,
        "runs_allowed": 626.0,
        "run_differential": 116.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.716,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5802,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8642,
        "offense_index": 1.0186,
        "defense_index": 1.1636,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1558
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 88,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.5432,
        "runs_scored": 713.0,
        "runs_allowed": 698.0,
        "run_differential": 15.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0926,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4012,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3086,
        "offense_index": 0.9788,
        "defense_index": 1.0436,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8,
          "run_differential": -16.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.013
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1428,
        "offense_edge": 0.0186,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0212,
        "defense_strength": 0.1636,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0436,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0115,
        "run_prevention": 0.9731,
        "strikeout": 1.006
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "641816",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "641816",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 543.0,
            "k_percent": 22.3,
            "bb_percent": 7.5,
            "woba": 0.311,
            "xwoba": 0.306,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.0191,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8316,
            "whiff_percent": 22.9,
            "swing_percent": 45.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0664,
            "command_and_miss": -0.0171,
            "regression_edge": 0.1429,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.1714,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0889,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.1143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3286,
            "bb_edge": 0.425,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0126
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "641816",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 93,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 93,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.64026118417685,
              "release_spin_rate": 2134.9981031675284,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 93,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.64026118417685,
                "release_spin_rate": 2134.9981031675284,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.6403,
              "release_spin_rate": 2134.9981,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0126,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.0897,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.046,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9961,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.988,
          "walk_factor": 0.966,
          "homer_factor": 0.9832,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.005,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "641816",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9961,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9961,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.966,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9832,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.988,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 0,
      "predicted_ER": 0,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 102,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260930_PHI@ATL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20261001

20261001_PHI@ATL

away

Aaron Nola

True

5.1

1.2

-11

9/2

2/2

6/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.671102661596958,
      "WHIP": 1.3460076045627376,
      "IP": 175.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 33,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.313,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.467,
      "last_start_IP": 1.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0047,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0004,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0206,
      "walk_factor": 0.974,
      "homer_factor": 1.0528,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 23.8,
      "bb_percent": 7.9,
      "woba": 0.346,
      "xwoba": 0.314,
      "barrel_percent": 9.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 40.3,
      "whiff_percent": 27.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": null,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 33.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8684,
        "prior_weight": 0.1316
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "605400",
      "report_date": "20261001",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 33,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.1,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 21.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 20.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 106.0,
            "Pitches": 384.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.2,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 21.2,
            "Pitches": 76.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.2927,
            "WHIP": 1.061,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.36585,
            "H_per_IP": 0.76829,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.29268,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.73171,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18293
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 55.1,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 45.0,
            "BB": 18.0,
            "SO": 56.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 222.0,
            "Pitches": 874.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.7,
            "R": 1.7,
            "H": 4.5,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 5.6,
            "HR": 0.9,
            "BF": 22.2,
            "Pitches": 87.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7651,
            "WHIP": 1.1386,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.30723,
            "H_per_IP": 0.81325,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3253,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.01205,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16265
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 33,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 175.1,
            "ER": 91.0,
            "R": 93.0,
            "H": 177.0,
            "BB": 59.0,
            "SO": 177.0,
            "HR": 37.0,
            "BF": 744.0,
            "Pitches": 2946.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.7576,
            "R": 2.8182,
            "H": 5.3636,
            "BB": 1.7879,
            "SO": 5.3636,
            "HR": 1.1212,
            "BF": 22.5455,
            "Pitches": 89.2727
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.6711,
            "WHIP": 1.346,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.51901,
            "H_per_IP": 1.00951,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3365,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.00951,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.21103
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.141,
        "predicted_H": 4.632,
        "predicted_BB": 1.748,
        "predicted_SO": 4.846,
        "predicted_HR": 0.962,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.5453,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1739
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4056,
      "form_weight": 0.5944,
      "form_reliability": 0.8684,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 33.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8684,
        "prior_weight": 0.1316
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.141,
          "final": 2.0838,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 9.0,
          "form": 4.632,
          "final": 6.4037,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.748,
          "final": 1.8502,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.846,
          "final": 5.3141,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.962,
          "final": 0.9774,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.5453,
          "final": 3.5453,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1739,
          "final": 1.1739,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 55.1,
        "ER": 17,
        "H": 45,
        "BB": 18,
        "SO": 56,
        "HR": 9,
        "ERA": 2.7650602409638556,
        "WHIP": 1.13855421686747,
        "K9": 9.10843373493976,
        "HR9": 1.4638554216867472,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-26T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8005397153558229,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 9.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 33.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8684,
          "prior_weight": 0.1316
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "605400",
      "player_name": "Aaron Nola",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PHI",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 9.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 9.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 9.0,
              "after": 9.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 9.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 88,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.5432,
        "runs_scored": 713.0,
        "runs_allowed": 698.0,
        "run_differential": 15.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0926,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4012,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3086,
        "offense_index": 0.979,
        "defense_index": 1.0435,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8,
          "run_differential": -16.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.013
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "ATL",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 94,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.5802,
        "runs_scored": 742.0,
        "runs_allowed": 626.0,
        "run_differential": 116.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.716,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5802,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8642,
        "offense_index": 1.0188,
        "defense_index": 1.1635,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1558
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1428,
        "offense_edge": -0.021,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0188,
        "defense_strength": 0.0435,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1635,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9948,
        "run_prevention": 1.0058,
        "strikeout": 0.9942
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "605400",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "605400",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 687.0,
            "k_percent": 23.8,
            "bb_percent": 7.9,
            "woba": 0.346,
            "xwoba": 0.314,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 40.3,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.9261,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.3067,
            "whiff_percent": 27.1,
            "swing_percent": 46.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.2651,
            "command_and_miss": 0.2693,
            "regression_edge": 0.9143,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.0571,
            "barrel_edge": -0.4667,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.3429,
            "whiff_edge": 0.2714,
            "bb_edge": 0.325,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.2211
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "605400",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 94,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 94,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 85.9161751557338,
              "release_spin_rate": 2297.230473518228,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 94,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 85.9161751557338,
                "release_spin_rate": 2297.230473518228,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 85.9162,
              "release_spin_rate": 2297.2305,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.2211,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.5792,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0047,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0004,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0206,
          "walk_factor": 0.974,
          "homer_factor": 1.0528,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.032,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "605400",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0004,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0004,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.974,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0528,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0206,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 9,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 28,
      "Pitches": 114,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -11 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 7",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -7."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20261001_PHI@ATL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20261001

20261001_PHI@ATL

home

Ray Kerr

True

4.2

3.1

-4

0/1

5/2

Last 10 before this game (9 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "WHIP": 0.6000000000000001,
      "IP": 18.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 9,
      "role_avg_IP": 3.0,
      "recent_avg_IP": 3.0,
      "last_start_IP": 3.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1441,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9878,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9815,
      "walk_factor": 0.9442,
      "homer_factor": 0.9609,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 16.7,
      "bb_percent": 3.0,
      "woba": 0.209,
      "xwoba": 0.281,
      "barrel_percent": 5.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 31.4,
      "whiff_percent": 23.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": null,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
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      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.6164383561643836,
        "last_10": 0.3835616438356164
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      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 3.777,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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        "prior_weight": 0.5697
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "678061",
      "report_date": "20261001",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 9,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
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          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 11.2,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.0,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 6.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 39.0,
            "Pitches": 127.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.1,
            "ER": 0.2,
            "R": 0.2,
            "H": 1.2,
            "BB": 0.2,
            "SO": 1.2,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 7.8,
            "Pitches": 25.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 0.7714,
            "WHIP": 0.6,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.08571,
            "H_per_IP": 0.51429,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.08571,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.51429,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08571
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 9,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 18.1,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 9.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 11.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 66.0,
            "Pitches": 212.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.0,
            "ER": 0.3333,
            "R": 0.3333,
            "H": 1.0,
            "BB": 0.2222,
            "SO": 1.2222,
            "HR": 0.2222,
            "BF": 7.3333,
            "Pitches": 23.5556
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.4727,
            "WHIP": 0.6,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.16364,
            "H_per_IP": 0.49091,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.10909,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.6,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10909
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        },
        "season": {
          "games": 9,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 18.1,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 9.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 11.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 66.0,
            "Pitches": 212.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.0,
            "ER": 0.3333,
            "R": 0.3333,
            "H": 1.0,
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            "HR": 0.2222,
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          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.4727,
            "WHIP": 0.6,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.16364,
            "H_per_IP": 0.49091,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.10909,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.6,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10909
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 3.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.233,
        "predicted_H": 2.808,
        "predicted_BB": 0.927,
        "predicted_SO": 2.769,
        "predicted_HR": 0.45,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.0748,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0352
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5907,
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      "form_reliability": 0.4303,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 3.777,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 3.2,
          "final": 4.1,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.233,
          "final": 0.5047,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.808,
          "final": 1.1493,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.927,
          "final": 0.3794,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 2.769,
          "final": 4.0868,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.45,
          "final": 0.1842,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.0748,
          "final": 3.0748,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0352,
          "final": 1.0352,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 18.1,
        "ER": 3,
        "H": 9,
        "BB": 2,
        "SO": 11,
        "HR": 2,
        "ERA": 1.4727272727272729,
        "WHIP": 0.6000000000000001,
        "K9": 5.4,
        "HR9": 0.9818181818181819,
        "games_pitched": 9,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": true,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 9,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 9,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-25T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7801282179497471,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 0.0,
          "predicted_H": 0.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 3.777,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.4303,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "678061",
      "player_name": "Ray Kerr",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ATL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 0.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 0.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
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            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          {
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          {
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          {
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            "before": 5.0,
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        ],
        "summary": {
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            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "material": true
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "ATL",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 94,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.5802,
        "runs_scored": 742.0,
        "runs_allowed": 626.0,
        "run_differential": 116.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.716,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5802,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8642,
        "offense_index": 1.0188,
        "defense_index": 1.1635,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1558
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 88,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.5432,
        "runs_scored": 713.0,
        "runs_allowed": 698.0,
        "run_differential": 15.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0926,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4012,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3086,
        "offense_index": 0.979,
        "defense_index": 1.0435,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8,
          "run_differential": -16.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.013
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1428,
        "offense_edge": 0.0188,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.021,
        "defense_strength": 0.1635,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0435,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0115,
        "run_prevention": 0.9731,
        "strikeout": 1.006
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "678061",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "678061",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 50.0,
            "k_percent": 16.7,
            "bb_percent": 3.0,
            "woba": 0.209,
            "xwoba": 0.281,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 27.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 31.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.8999,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.2085,
            "whiff_percent": 23.4,
            "swing_percent": 52.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.9908,
            "command_and_miss": -0.1271,
            "regression_edge": -2.0,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.8857,
            "barrel_edge": 0.2889,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.9286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2571,
            "bb_edge": 1.55,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0191
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "678061",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 28,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 28,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.52283282543786,
              "release_spin_rate": 2148.8918500733625,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 28,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.52283282543786,
                "release_spin_rate": 2148.8918500733625,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.5228,
              "release_spin_rate": 2148.8919,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0191,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.1365,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1441,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9878,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9815,
          "walk_factor": 0.9442,
          "homer_factor": 0.9609,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.072,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "678061",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9945,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9945,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9749,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9824,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9917,
            "adjusted": 0
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 0,
      "predicted_R": 0,
      "predicted_ER": 0,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 14,
      "Pitches": 71,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 9 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20261001_PHI@ATL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20261003

20261003_ATL@LAD

away

Dylan Dodd

True

5.2

3.0

-8

-3

3/2

3/0

7/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.682119205298013,
      "WHIP": 0.9139072847682119,
      "IP": 50.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 49,
      "role_avg_IP": 3.0,
      "recent_avg_IP": 3.0,
      "last_start_IP": 3.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2871,
      "sample_weight": 0.672,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9756,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0365,
      "walk_factor": 0.9731,
      "homer_factor": 0.9948,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 27.3,
      "bb_percent": 7.2,
      "woba": 0.26,
      "xwoba": 0.273,
      "barrel_percent": 8.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.1,
      "whiff_percent": 29.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 46,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 50.1,
      "season_ERA": 2.682,
      "season_WHIP": 0.914,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 10.373,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6748,
        "prior_weight": 0.3252
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "689266",
      "report_date": "20261003",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 49,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 0.0,
            "SO": 6.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 20.0,
            "Pitches": 77.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.6,
            "R": 0.6,
            "H": 0.8,
            "BB": 0.0,
            "SO": 1.2,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 4.0,
            "Pitches": 15.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.4,
            "WHIP": 0.8,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.6,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.0,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.2,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.2
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 9.1,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 5.0,
            "H": 8.0,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 10.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 38.0,
            "Pitches": 138.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.5,
            "R": 0.5,
            "H": 0.8,
            "BB": 0.1,
            "SO": 1.0,
            "HR": 0.3,
            "BF": 3.8,
            "Pitches": 13.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.8214,
            "WHIP": 0.9643,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.53571,
            "H_per_IP": 0.85714,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.10714,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.07143,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.32143
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 49,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 50.1,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 32.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 53.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 197.0,
            "Pitches": 793.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.3061,
            "R": 0.3061,
            "H": 0.6531,
            "BB": 0.2857,
            "SO": 1.0816,
            "HR": 0.1429,
            "BF": 4.0204,
            "Pitches": 16.1837
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.6821,
            "WHIP": 0.9139,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.29801,
            "H_per_IP": 0.63576,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.27815,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.05298,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13907
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 2.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.298,
        "predicted_H": 2.143,
        "predicted_BB": 0.469,
        "predicted_SO": 2.676,
        "predicted_HR": 0.512,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.6395,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0374
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4874,
      "form_weight": 0.5126,
      "form_reliability": 0.6748,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 10.373,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6748,
        "prior_weight": 0.3252
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 2.2,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.298,
          "final": 2.6149,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.143,
          "final": 3.0481,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 0.469,
          "final": 1.7026,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 2.676,
          "final": 4.2961,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.512,
          "final": 1.2372,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.6395,
          "final": 4.6395,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0374,
          "final": 1.0374,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 9.1,
        "ER": 5,
        "H": 8,
        "BB": 1,
        "SO": 10,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 4.821428571428572,
        "WHIP": 0.9642857142857144,
        "K9": 9.642857142857144,
        "HR9": 2.8928571428571432,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-10-01T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.00867242009206,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 10.373,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.6748,
          "prior_weight": 0.3252
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "689266",
      "player_name": "Dylan Dodd",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ATL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": -2.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 3,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 3,
            "better_metrics": 2,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": -2.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.2,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.1667,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 2,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.1667,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": -2.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.5,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.5,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.1667,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 5,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 4,
          "better_metrics": 4,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.1667,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": -2.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.5,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "ATL",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 94,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.5802,
        "runs_scored": 742.0,
        "runs_allowed": 626.0,
        "run_differential": 116.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.716,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5802,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8642,
        "offense_index": 1.0195,
        "defense_index": 1.1626,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1558
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "LAD",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 100,
        "losses": 62,
        "win_pct": 0.6173,
        "runs_scored": 801.0,
        "runs_allowed": 600.0,
        "run_differential": 201.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.2407,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9444,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7037,
        "offense_index": 1.1006,
        "defense_index": 1.213,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.2,
          "run_differential": 28.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3566
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2008,
        "offense_edge": 0.0195,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1006,
        "defense_strength": 0.1626,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.213,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9928,
        "run_prevention": 1.0099,
        "strikeout": 0.9859
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "689266",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "689266",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 168.0,
            "k_percent": 27.3,
            "bb_percent": 7.2,
            "woba": 0.26,
            "xwoba": 0.273,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 37.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.0941,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.4986,
            "whiff_percent": 29.5,
            "swing_percent": 54.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.5212,
            "command_and_miss": 0.6493,
            "regression_edge": -0.3714,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.1143,
            "barrel_edge": -0.3778,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.1143,
            "whiff_edge": 0.6143,
            "bb_edge": 0.5,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0466
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "689266",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 13,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 13,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.69542798085439,
              "release_spin_rate": 2142.6259128208435,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 13,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.69542798085439,
                "release_spin_rate": 2142.6259128208435,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.6954,
              "release_spin_rate": 2142.6259,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0466,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.3325,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2871,
          "sample_weight": 0.672,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9756,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0365,
          "walk_factor": 0.9731,
          "homer_factor": 0.9948,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.013,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "689266",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9836,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9836,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9819,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9965,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0245,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 104,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -8 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 3 ER."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20261003_ATL@LAD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20261003

20261003_ATL@LAD

home

Tarik Skubal

True

6.1

6.0

-1

5/2

1/2

7/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 2.722689075630252,
      "WHIP": 0.9642857142857143,
      "IP": 158.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.103,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.4,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.7622,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9352,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0823,
      "walk_factor": 0.904,
      "homer_factor": 0.934,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 30.0,
      "bb_percent": 4.4,
      "woba": 0.264,
      "xwoba": 0.266,
      "barrel_percent": 6.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.8,
      "whiff_percent": 31.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": null,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669373",
      "report_date": "20261003",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 32.0,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 28.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 33.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 125.0,
            "Pitches": 447.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 6.6,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 25.0,
            "Pitches": 89.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.25,
            "WHIP": 1.0625,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.25,
            "H_per_IP": 0.875,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.1875,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.03125,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0625
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 62.0,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 52.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 70.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 246.0,
            "Pitches": 925.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.9,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 1.3,
            "SO": 7.0,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 24.6,
            "Pitches": 92.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.6129,
            "WHIP": 1.0484,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.29032,
            "H_per_IP": 0.83871,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.20968,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.12903,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06452
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 158.2,
            "ER": 48.0,
            "R": 52.0,
            "H": 126.0,
            "BB": 27.0,
            "SO": 186.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 620.0,
            "Pitches": 2356.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.8462,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.8462,
            "BB": 1.0385,
            "SO": 7.1538,
            "HR": 0.5385,
            "BF": 23.8462,
            "Pitches": 90.6154
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7227,
            "WHIP": 0.9643,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.30252,
            "H_per_IP": 0.79412,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.17017,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.17227,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08824
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.964,
        "predicted_H": 5.451,
        "predicted_BB": 1.394,
        "predicted_SO": 6.703,
        "predicted_HR": 0.509,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.8164,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0904
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4181,
      "form_weight": 0.5819,
      "form_reliability": 0.8387,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.1,
          "form": 6.1,
          "final": 6.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.964,
          "final": 1.5609,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.451,
          "final": 5.2624,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.394,
          "final": 1.2292,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 6.703,
          "final": 5.9909,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.509,
          "final": 0.2962,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.8164,
          "final": 2.8164,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0904,
          "final": 1.0904,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 62.0,
        "ER": 18,
        "H": 52,
        "BB": 13,
        "SO": 70,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 2.6129032258064515,
        "WHIP": 1.0483870967741935,
        "K9": 10.161290322580646,
        "HR9": 0.5806451612903226,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 7,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-25T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7813918454232848,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 26.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8387,
          "prior_weight": 0.1613
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.1,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669373",
      "player_name": "Tarik Skubal",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "LAD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.3333,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0368,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.4,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.4,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.3333,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0368,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.1,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.3333,
            "after": 6.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0368,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.4,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.4,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.3333,
            "after": 6.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0368,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "LAD",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 100,
        "losses": 62,
        "win_pct": 0.6173,
        "runs_scored": 801.0,
        "runs_allowed": 600.0,
        "run_differential": 201.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.2407,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9444,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7037,
        "offense_index": 1.1006,
        "defense_index": 1.213,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.2,
          "run_differential": 28.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3566
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "ATL",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 94,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.5802,
        "runs_scored": 742.0,
        "runs_allowed": 626.0,
        "run_differential": 116.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.716,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5802,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8642,
        "offense_index": 1.0195,
        "defense_index": 1.1626,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1558
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2008,
        "offense_edge": 0.1006,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0195,
        "defense_strength": 0.213,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1626,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0136,
        "run_prevention": 0.9718,
        "strikeout": 1.0045
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669373",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669373",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 569.0,
            "k_percent": 30.0,
            "bb_percent": 4.4,
            "woba": 0.264,
            "xwoba": 0.266,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.6,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 34.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.3556,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.4848,
            "whiff_percent": 31.7,
            "swing_percent": 53.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.851,
            "command_and_miss": 1.0729,
            "regression_edge": -0.0571,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.3143,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1111,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.4429,
            "whiff_edge": 0.9286,
            "bb_edge": 1.2,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.155
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669373",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 92,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 92,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.63147798168428,
              "release_spin_rate": 2173.3742821287633,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 92,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.63147798168428,
                "release_spin_rate": 2173.3742821287633,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.6315,
              "release_spin_rate": 2173.3743,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.155,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.1069,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.7622,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9352,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0823,
          "walk_factor": 0.904,
          "homer_factor": 0.934,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.002,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "669373",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9352,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9352,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.904,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.934,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0823,
            "adjusted": 8
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.1,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 27,
      "Pitches": 111,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20261003_ATL@LAD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20261003

20261003_CHW@CLE

away

Hagen Smith

True

5.0

2.2

-7

2/0

2/3

5/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 0.8709677419354839,
      "WHIP": 0.9032258064516129,
      "IP": 31.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 18,
      "role_avg_IP": 2.5,
      "recent_avg_IP": 2.5,
      "last_start_IP": 3.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.4803,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9592,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0674,
      "walk_factor": 1.0477,
      "homer_factor": 0.921,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 37.3,
      "bb_percent": 14.5,
      "woba": 0.211,
      "xwoba": 0.243,
      "barrel_percent": 1.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.0,
      "whiff_percent": 36.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 60,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.0,
      "season_IP": 31.0,
      "season_ERA": 0.871,
      "season_WHIP": 0.903,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 6.389,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.561,
        "prior_weight": 0.439
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "696146",
      "report_date": "20261003",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 18,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 7.1,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.0,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 8.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 30.0,
            "Pitches": 127.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.1,
            "ER": 0.2,
            "R": 0.2,
            "H": 0.8,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 1.6,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 6.0,
            "Pitches": 25.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.2273,
            "WHIP": 1.0909,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.13636,
            "H_per_IP": 0.54545,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.54545,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.09091,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 18.0,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 8.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 68.0,
            "Pitches": 272.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.2,
            "ER": 0.3,
            "R": 0.3,
            "H": 0.8,
            "BB": 0.6,
            "SO": 2.3,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 6.8,
            "Pitches": 27.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.5,
            "WHIP": 0.7778,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.16667,
            "H_per_IP": 0.44444,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33333,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.27778,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 18,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 31.0,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 12.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 42.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 120.0,
            "Pitches": 503.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.2,
            "ER": 0.1667,
            "R": 0.1667,
            "H": 0.6667,
            "BB": 0.8889,
            "SO": 2.3333,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 6.6667,
            "Pitches": 27.9444
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 0.871,
            "WHIP": 0.9032,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.09677,
            "H_per_IP": 0.3871,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.51613,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.35484,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        "predicted_SO": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      "pitching": {
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-29T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.7886905883945785,
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "player_name": "Hagen Smith",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHW",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
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          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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          ],
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "win_pct": 0.5185,
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        "runs_allowed": 720.0,
        "run_differential": 56.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3457,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7901,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4444,
        "offense_index": 1.0655,
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        "current_streak": "W1",
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          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.5,
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          "run_differential": 22.0
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        "available": true,
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      },
      "opponent": {
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        "games": 162,
        "wins": 85,
        "losses": 77,
        "win_pct": 0.5247,
        "runs_scored": 678.0,
        "runs_allowed": 667.0,
        "run_differential": 11.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0679,
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        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1173,
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          "run_differential": 21.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1343
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": 0.0655,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0691,
        "defense_strength": 0.0115,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0029,
        "run_prevention": 0.9881,
        "strikeout": 1.0053
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "696146",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "696146",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 90.0,
            "k_percent": 37.3,
            "bb_percent": 14.5,
            "woba": 0.211,
            "xwoba": 0.243,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 1.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 34.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.8598,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.4182,
            "whiff_percent": 36.2,
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 1.4885,
            "command_and_miss": 1.2621,
            "regression_edge": -0.9143,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.9714,
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            "hard_hit_edge": 0.5571,
            "whiff_edge": 1.5714,
            "bb_edge": -1.325,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0374
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "696146",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 30,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 30,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.19609326567674,
              "release_spin_rate": 2396.9610928315874,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 30,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.19609326567674,
                "release_spin_rate": 2396.9610928315874,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.1961,
              "release_spin_rate": 2396.9611,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
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              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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            "components": {
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            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.4803,
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          "strikeout_factor": 1.0674,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.032,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "696146",
            "espn_rank": null
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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            "factor": 0.9816,
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9816,
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0215,
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          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9645,
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0303,
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "predicted_R": 0,
      "predicted_ER": 0,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 77,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -7 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20261003_CHW@CLE.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20261003

20261003_CHW@CLE

home

Parker Messick

True

6.0

4.1

-5

-1

5/4

1/2

5/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 2.559928443649374,
      "WHIP": 1.0626118067978532,
      "IP": 186.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 32,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.823,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.067,
      "last_start_IP": 3.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.5409,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.954,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0229,
      "walk_factor": 0.948,
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      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 25.8,
      "bb_percent": 6.6,
      "woba": 0.274,
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      "barrel_percent": 5.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.3,
      "whiff_percent": 25.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": null,
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      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 6.0,
      "season_IP": 186.1,
      "season_ERA": 2.56,
      "season_WHIP": 1.063,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
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      "weights": {
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    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
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        "profile": {
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            "primary_pitch": {
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              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.1013,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.5409,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.954,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0229,
          "walk_factor": 0.948,
          "homer_factor": 0.9086,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.001,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "800048",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.954,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.954,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.948,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9086,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0229,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 101,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20261003_CHW@CLE.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20261003

20261003_NYY@TB

away

Gerrit Cole

True

5.2

5.0

-2

7/5

3/1

6/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.6141732283464565,
      "WHIP": 1.1023622047244095,
      "IP": 127.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 22,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.773,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.667,
      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0289,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9975,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9954,
      "walk_factor": 0.912,
      "homer_factor": 1.06,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 25.2,
      "bb_percent": 4.8,
      "woba": 0.302,
      "xwoba": 0.3,
      "barrel_percent": 9.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 44.6,
      "whiff_percent": 21.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": null,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 22.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8148,
        "prior_weight": 0.1852
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "543037",
      "report_date": "20261003",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 22,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.1,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 30.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 26.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 117.0,
            "Pitches": 446.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 1.8,
            "BF": 23.4,
            "Pitches": 89.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.0824,
            "WHIP": 1.2,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.56471,
            "H_per_IP": 1.05882,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.14118,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.91765,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.31765
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 59.0,
            "ER": 24.0,
            "R": 25.0,
            "H": 55.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 58.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 240.0,
            "Pitches": 886.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.5,
            "H": 5.5,
            "BB": 1.1,
            "SO": 5.8,
            "HR": 1.1,
            "BF": 24.0,
            "Pitches": 88.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.661,
            "WHIP": 1.1186,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.40678,
            "H_per_IP": 0.9322,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.18644,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.98305,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18644
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 22,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 127.0,
            "ER": 51.0,
            "R": 52.0,
            "H": 115.0,
            "BB": 25.0,
            "SO": 131.0,
            "HR": 22.0,
            "BF": 519.0,
            "Pitches": 1951.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.3182,
            "R": 2.3636,
            "H": 5.2273,
            "BB": 1.1364,
            "SO": 5.9545,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 23.5909,
            "Pitches": 88.6818
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6142,
            "WHIP": 1.1024,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.40157,
            "H_per_IP": 0.90551,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.19685,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0315,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17323
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.785,
        "predicted_H": 5.669,
        "predicted_BB": 1.194,
        "predicted_SO": 5.518,
        "predicted_HR": 1.298,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.3502,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1912
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4282,
      "form_weight": 0.5718,
      "form_reliability": 0.8148,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 22.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8148,
        "prior_weight": 0.1852
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.785,
          "final": 3.3053,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 5.669,
          "final": 6.6672,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.194,
          "final": 1.9674,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.518,
          "final": 5.2962,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.298,
          "final": 0.7421,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.3502,
          "final": 4.3502,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1912,
          "final": 1.1912,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 59.0,
        "ER": 24,
        "H": 55,
        "BB": 11,
        "SO": 58,
        "HR": 11,
        "ERA": 3.661016949152543,
        "WHIP": 1.1186440677966103,
        "K9": 8.847457627118645,
        "HR9": 1.6779661016949154,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-23T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9010610635752805,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 8.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 22.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8148,
          "prior_weight": 0.1852
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 8,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "543037",
      "player_name": "Gerrit Cole",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "NYY",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.2,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 3,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 2,
            "better_metrics": 2,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.2,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.125,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.2,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.125,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 8.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.125,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.2,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 4,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 3,
          "better_metrics": 3,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.2,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "NYY",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 93,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.5776,
        "runs_scored": 739.0,
        "runs_allowed": 601.0,
        "run_differential": 138.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8571,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5901,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7329,
        "offense_index": 1.0221,
        "defense_index": 1.2031,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1709
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TB",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 98,
        "losses": 64,
        "win_pct": 0.6049,
        "runs_scored": 736.0,
        "runs_allowed": 650.0,
        "run_differential": 86.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5309,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5432,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0123,
        "offense_index": 1.0116,
        "defense_index": 1.1193,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.2,
          "run_differential": 6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1542
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0167,
        "offense_edge": 0.0221,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0116,
        "defense_strength": 0.2031,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1193,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0063,
        "run_prevention": 0.9807,
        "strikeout": 0.9996
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "543037",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "543037",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 470.0,
            "k_percent": 25.2,
            "bb_percent": 4.8,
            "woba": 0.302,
            "xwoba": 0.3,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 44.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 81.4104,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.5024,
            "whiff_percent": 21.3,
            "swing_percent": 49.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.08,
            "command_and_miss": 0.2243,
            "regression_edge": 0.0571,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.3429,
            "barrel_edge": -0.4,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.9571,
            "whiff_edge": -0.5571,
            "bb_edge": 1.1,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1217
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "543037",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 82,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 82,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.03748624523112,
              "release_spin_rate": 2372.6649530903105,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 82,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.03748624523112,
                "release_spin_rate": 2372.6649530903105,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.0375,
              "release_spin_rate": 2372.665,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1217,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.8693,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0289,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9975,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9954,
          "walk_factor": 0.912,
          "homer_factor": 1.06,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.002,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "543037",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9975,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9975,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.912,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.06,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9954,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 27,
      "Pitches": 104,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20261003_NYY@TB.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20261003

20261003_NYY@TB

home

Drew Rasmussen

True

6.0

8.0

-2

1/1

3/2

5/10

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.6686046511627906,
      "WHIP": 0.9127906976744186,
      "IP": 172.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 30,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.733,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.333,
      "last_start_IP": 6.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.5597,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9524,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0217,
      "walk_factor": 0.912,
      "homer_factor": 0.9183,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 26.0,
      "bb_percent": 4.8,
      "woba": 0.243,
      "xwoba": 0.271,
      "barrel_percent": 5.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.8,
      "whiff_percent": 25.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": null,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "656876",
      "report_date": "20261003",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 30,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 31.2,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 5.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 31.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 119.0,
            "Pitches": 476.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.0,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 6.2,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 23.8,
            "Pitches": 95.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.4211,
            "WHIP": 0.8526,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.15789,
            "H_per_IP": 0.63158,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.22105,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.97895,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03158
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 60.2,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 40.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 62.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 230.0,
            "Pitches": 936.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.3,
            "R": 1.3,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 1.3,
            "SO": 6.2,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 23.0,
            "Pitches": 93.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.9286,
            "WHIP": 0.8736,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.21429,
            "H_per_IP": 0.65934,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21429,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.02198,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03297
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 30,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 172.0,
            "ER": 51.0,
            "R": 53.0,
            "H": 125.0,
            "BB": 32.0,
            "SO": 174.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 669.0,
            "Pitches": 2660.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.7,
            "R": 1.7667,
            "H": 4.1667,
            "BB": 1.0667,
            "SO": 5.8,
            "HR": 0.4667,
            "BF": 22.3,
            "Pitches": 88.6667
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.6686,
            "WHIP": 0.9128,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.29651,
            "H_per_IP": 0.72674,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.18605,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.01163,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0814
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.513,
        "predicted_H": 4.29,
        "predicted_BB": 1.431,
        "predicted_SO": 6.016,
        "predicted_HR": 0.347,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.2428,
        "predicted_WHIP": 0.9422
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4104,
      "form_weight": 0.5896,
      "form_reliability": 0.8571,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.513,
          "final": 1.7129,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 4.29,
          "final": 2.9399,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.431,
          "final": 2.0749,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 6.016,
          "final": 5.1887,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.347,
          "final": 0.2046,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.2428,
          "final": 2.2428,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 0.9422,
          "final": 0.9422,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 60.2,
        "ER": 13,
        "H": 40,
        "BB": 13,
        "SO": 62,
        "HR": 2,
        "ERA": 1.9285714285714284,
        "WHIP": 0.8736263736263735,
        "K9": 9.197802197802197,
        "HR9": 0.2967032967032967,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 7,
        "dominant_form": true,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-22T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7000355001556491,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 1.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 30.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8571,
          "prior_weight": 0.1429
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 1,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "656876",
      "player_name": "Drew Rasmussen",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TB",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.1667,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.1667,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.25,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.25,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TB",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 98,
        "losses": 64,
        "win_pct": 0.6049,
        "runs_scored": 736.0,
        "runs_allowed": 650.0,
        "run_differential": 86.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5309,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5432,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0123,
        "offense_index": 1.0116,
        "defense_index": 1.1193,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.2,
          "run_differential": 6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1542
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "NYY",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 93,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.5776,
        "runs_scored": 739.0,
        "runs_allowed": 601.0,
        "run_differential": 138.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8571,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5901,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7329,
        "offense_index": 1.0221,
        "defense_index": 1.2031,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1709
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0167,
        "offense_edge": 0.0116,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0221,
        "defense_strength": 0.1193,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.2031,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.002,
        "run_prevention": 0.9924,
        "strikeout": 0.9977
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "656876",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "656876",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 645.0,
            "k_percent": 26.0,
            "bb_percent": 4.8,
            "woba": 0.243,
            "xwoba": 0.271,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 33.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.4285,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.597,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 50.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.906,
            "command_and_miss": 0.4657,
            "regression_edge": -0.8,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.1714,
            "barrel_edge": 0.2889,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.5857,
            "whiff_edge": -0.0143,
            "bb_edge": 1.1,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1407
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "656876",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 93,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 93,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.37588033984052,
              "release_spin_rate": 2355.1143668897917,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 93,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.37588033984052,
                "release_spin_rate": 2355.1143668897917,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.3759,
              "release_spin_rate": 2355.1144,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1407,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.0047,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.5597,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9524,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0217,
          "walk_factor": 0.912,
          "homer_factor": 0.9183,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.028,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "656876",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9524,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9524,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.912,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9183,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0217,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 1,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 103,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by +6 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20261003_NYY@TB.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20261003

20261003_SD@MIL

away

Robbie Ray

True

5.0

2.2

-7

-1

6/4

1/2

4/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.585513078470825,
      "WHIP": 1.352112676056338,
      "IP": 165.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 31,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.311,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.533,
      "last_start_IP": 3.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3171,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.027,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.984,
      "walk_factor": 1.056,
      "homer_factor": 1.0311,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 19.9,
      "bb_percent": 12.0,
      "woba": 0.315,
      "xwoba": 0.335,
      "barrel_percent": 8.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.4,
      "whiff_percent": 24.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": null,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "592662",
      "report_date": "20261003",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 31,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 22.2,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 18.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 102.0,
            "Pitches": 427.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 2.8,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 20.4,
            "Pitches": 85.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.9559,
            "WHIP": 1.5882,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.66176,
            "H_per_IP": 0.97059,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.61765,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.79412,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13235
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 49.0,
            "ER": 25.0,
            "R": 25.0,
            "H": 43.0,
            "BB": 28.0,
            "SO": 39.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 212.0,
            "Pitches": 879.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.5,
            "R": 2.5,
            "H": 4.3,
            "BB": 2.8,
            "SO": 3.9,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 21.2,
            "Pitches": 87.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5918,
            "WHIP": 1.449,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5102,
            "H_per_IP": 0.87755,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.57143,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.79592,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14286
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 31,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 165.2,
            "ER": 66.0,
            "R": 74.0,
            "H": 140.0,
            "BB": 84.0,
            "SO": 140.0,
            "HR": 22.0,
            "BF": 702.0,
            "Pitches": 2854.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.129,
            "R": 2.3871,
            "H": 4.5161,
            "BB": 2.7097,
            "SO": 4.5161,
            "HR": 0.7097,
            "BF": 22.6452,
            "Pitches": 92.0645
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.5855,
            "WHIP": 1.3521,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.39839,
            "H_per_IP": 0.84507,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.50704,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.84507,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1328
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.71,
        "predicted_H": 4.548,
        "predicted_BB": 2.718,
        "predicted_SO": 4.055,
        "predicted_HR": 0.679,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.9495,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4744
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4087,
      "form_weight": 0.5913,
      "form_reliability": 0.8611,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.71,
          "final": 2.8285,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.548,
          "final": 5.1414,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.718,
          "final": 2.0159,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.055,
          "final": 4.0325,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.679,
          "final": 0.8102,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.9495,
          "final": 4.9495,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4744,
          "final": 1.4744,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 49.0,
        "ER": 25,
        "H": 43,
        "BB": 28,
        "SO": 39,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 4.591836734693878,
        "WHIP": 1.4489795918367347,
        "K9": 7.163265306122449,
        "HR9": 1.2857142857142858,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-23T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0140366775496839,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 31.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8611,
          "prior_weight": 0.1389
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "592662",
      "player_name": "Robbie Ray",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SD",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 91,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.5617,
        "runs_scored": 722.0,
        "runs_allowed": 681.0,
        "run_differential": 41.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2531,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4568,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2037,
        "offense_index": 0.992,
        "defense_index": 1.0687,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": 18.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1884
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIL",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 103,
        "losses": 59,
        "win_pct": 0.6358,
        "runs_scored": 832.0,
        "runs_allowed": 618.0,
        "run_differential": 214.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.321,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.1358,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8148,
        "offense_index": 1.1432,
        "defense_index": 1.1777,
        "current_streak": "W5",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.0,
          "run_differential": 14.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3822
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1938,
        "offense_edge": -0.008,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1432,
        "defense_strength": 0.0687,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1777,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9886,
        "run_prevention": 1.0257,
        "strikeout": 0.9827
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "592662",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "592662",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 657.0,
            "k_percent": 19.9,
            "bb_percent": 12.0,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.335,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.7395,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9885,
            "whiff_percent": 24.6,
            "swing_percent": 46.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.3086,
            "command_and_miss": -0.3114,
            "regression_edge": -0.5714,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.6571,
            "barrel_edge": -0.1778,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.0714,
            "whiff_edge": -0.0857,
            "bb_edge": -0.7,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0765
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "592662",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 88,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 88,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.49794587706354,
              "release_spin_rate": 2136.9723176433495,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 88,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.49794587706354,
                "release_spin_rate": 2136.9723176433495,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.4979,
              "release_spin_rate": 2136.9723,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0765,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.5465,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3171,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.027,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.984,
          "walk_factor": 1.056,
          "homer_factor": 1.0311,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.02,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "592662",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.027,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.027,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.056,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0311,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.984,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 97,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -7 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20261003_SD@MIL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20261003

20261003_SD@MIL

home

Jacob Misiorowski

True

6.0

4.0

-6

4/4

4/1

6/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 1.803435114503817,
      "WHIP": 0.8015267175572519,
      "IP": 174.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 30,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.822,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.733,
      "last_start_IP": 5.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 1.3589,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.8845,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.1594,
      "walk_factor": 0.948,
      "homer_factor": 0.836,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 37.9,
      "bb_percent": 6.6,
      "woba": 0.216,
      "xwoba": 0.226,
      "barrel_percent": 3.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.3,
      "whiff_percent": 37.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": null,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 6.0,
      "season_IP": 174.2,
      "season_ERA": 1.803,
      "season_WHIP": 0.802,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "694819",
      "report_date": "20261003",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 30,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.2,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 6.0,
            "H": 17.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 30.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 94.0,
            "Pitches": 379.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.2,
            "R": 1.2,
            "H": 3.4,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 6.0,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 18.8,
            "Pitches": 75.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.2817,
            "WHIP": 1.0986,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.25352,
            "H_per_IP": 0.71831,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38028,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.26761,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.04225
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 54.2,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 34.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 67.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 209.0,
            "Pitches": 839.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 3.4,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 6.7,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 20.9,
            "Pitches": 83.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.3049,
            "WHIP": 0.9146,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.2561,
            "H_per_IP": 0.62195,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.29268,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.22561,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07317
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 30,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 174.2,
            "ER": 35.0,
            "R": 43.0,
            "H": 96.0,
            "BB": 44.0,
            "SO": 252.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 665.0,
            "Pitches": 2647.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.1667,
            "R": 1.4333,
            "H": 3.2,
            "BB": 1.4667,
            "SO": 8.4,
            "HR": 0.4667,
            "BF": 22.1667,
            "Pitches": 88.2333
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.8034,
            "WHIP": 0.8015,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.20038,
            "H_per_IP": 0.54962,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25191,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.44275,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08015
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.475,
        "predicted_H": 3.652,
        "predicted_BB": 1.735,
        "predicted_SO": 6.469,
        "predicted_HR": 0.382,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.5393,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0303
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4104,
      "form_weight": 0.5896,
      "form_reliability": 0.8571,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.475,
          "final": 1.2801,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.652,
          "final": 3.7948,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.735,
          "final": 2.6645,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 6.469,
          "final": 5.4558,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.382,
          "final": 0.2252,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.5393,
          "final": 2.5393,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0303,
          "final": 1.0303,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 54.2,
        "ER": 14,
        "H": 34,
        "BB": 16,
        "SO": 67,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 2.304878048780488,
        "WHIP": 0.9146341463414634,
        "K9": 11.03048780487805,
        "HR9": 0.6585365853658537,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-27T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7433951892470456,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 30.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8571,
          "prior_weight": 0.1429
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 4,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "694819",
      "player_name": "Jacob Misiorowski",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": {
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              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            "percent_delta": null,
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            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
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          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
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            "before": 4.0,
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            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.5,
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            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIL",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 103,
        "losses": 59,
        "win_pct": 0.6358,
        "runs_scored": 832.0,
        "runs_allowed": 618.0,
        "run_differential": 214.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.321,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.1358,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8148,
        "offense_index": 1.1432,
        "defense_index": 1.1777,
        "current_streak": "W5",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.0,
          "run_differential": 14.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3822
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SD",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 91,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.5617,
        "runs_scored": 722.0,
        "runs_allowed": 681.0,
        "run_differential": 41.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2531,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4568,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2037,
        "offense_index": 0.992,
        "defense_index": 1.0687,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": 18.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1884
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1938,
        "offense_edge": 0.1432,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.008,
        "defense_strength": 0.1777,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0687,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0134,
        "run_prevention": 0.9713,
        "strikeout": 1.0065
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "694819",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "694819",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 614.0,
            "k_percent": 37.9,
            "bb_percent": 6.6,
            "woba": 0.216,
            "xwoba": 0.226,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 3.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 33.3,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.4985,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 92.9527,
            "whiff_percent": 37.3,
            "swing_percent": 51.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 1.6247,
            "command_and_miss": 1.7507,
            "regression_edge": -0.2857,
            "xwoba_edge": 2.4571,
            "barrel_edge": 0.8,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.6571,
            "whiff_edge": 1.7286,
            "bb_edge": 0.65,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.28
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "694819",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 91,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 91,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 97.5350871630707,
              "release_spin_rate": 2568.640260744372,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 91,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 97.5350871630707,
                "release_spin_rate": 2568.640260744372,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 97.5351,
              "release_spin_rate": 2568.6403,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.28,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 2.0,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 1.3589,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.8845,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.1594,
          "walk_factor": 0.948,
          "homer_factor": 0.836,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.01,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "694819",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.8845,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.8845,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.948,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.836,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.1594,
            "adjusted": 8
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 116,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -6 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20261003_SD@MIL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20261004

20261004_ATL@LAD

away

Ray Kerr

True

5.0

2.2

-7

-1

2/2

0/1

4/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 1.2461538461538462,
      "WHIP": 0.6,
      "IP": 21.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 10,
      "role_avg_IP": 3.167,
      "recent_avg_IP": 3.167,
      "last_start_IP": 3.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1441,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9878,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9815,
      "walk_factor": 0.9442,
      "homer_factor": 0.9609,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 16.7,
      "bb_percent": 3.0,
      "woba": 0.209,
      "xwoba": 0.281,
      "barrel_percent": 5.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 31.4,
      "whiff_percent": 23.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 35,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.5625,
        "last_10": 0.43749999999999994
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 4.468,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.4719,
        "prior_weight": 0.5281
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "678061",
      "report_date": "20261004",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 10,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 11.2,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.0,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 7.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 40.0,
            "Pitches": 139.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.1,
            "ER": 0.2,
            "R": 0.2,
            "H": 1.2,
            "BB": 0.4,
            "SO": 1.4,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 8.0,
            "Pitches": 27.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 0.7714,
            "WHIP": 0.6857,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.08571,
            "H_per_IP": 0.51429,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.17143,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.6,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08571
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 21.2,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 10.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 13.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 78.0,
            "Pitches": 259.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.0,
            "ER": 0.3,
            "R": 0.3,
            "H": 1.0,
            "BB": 0.3,
            "SO": 1.3,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 7.8,
            "Pitches": 25.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.2462,
            "WHIP": 0.6,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.13846,
            "H_per_IP": 0.46154,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.13846,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.6,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09231
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 21.2,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 10.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 13.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 78.0,
            "Pitches": 259.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.0,
            "ER": 0.3,
            "R": 0.3,
            "H": 1.0,
            "BB": 0.3,
            "SO": 1.3,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 7.8,
            "Pitches": 25.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.2462,
            "WHIP": 0.6,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.13846,
            "H_per_IP": 0.46154,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.13846,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.6,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09231
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 3.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.069,
        "predicted_H": 2.496,
        "predicted_BB": 0.912,
        "predicted_SO": 2.576,
        "predicted_HR": 0.398,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.8969,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0261
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5731,
      "form_weight": 0.4269,
      "form_reliability": 0.4719,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 4.468,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.4719,
        "prior_weight": 0.5281
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.1,
          "form": 3.1,
          "final": 4.0,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.069,
          "final": 1.0295,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
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          "final": 2.8969,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0261,
          "final": 1.0261,
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      "pitching": {
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      "fielding": {
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      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-10-01T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.721442130050401,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 4.468,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.4719,
          "prior_weight": 0.5281
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_SO": 4,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
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      "player_id": "678061",
      "player_name": "Ray Kerr",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ATL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
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              "percent_delta": 0.1538,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_deboost": null
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          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": {
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          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "ATL",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 94,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.5802,
        "runs_scored": 742.0,
        "runs_allowed": 626.0,
        "run_differential": 116.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.716,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5802,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8642,
        "offense_index": 1.0198,
        "defense_index": 1.1622,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1559
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "LAD",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 100,
        "losses": 62,
        "win_pct": 0.6173,
        "runs_scored": 801.0,
        "runs_allowed": 600.0,
        "run_differential": 201.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.2407,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9444,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7037,
        "offense_index": 1.1009,
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        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.2,
          "run_differential": 28.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3566
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      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2007,
        "offense_edge": 0.0198,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1009,
        "defense_strength": 0.1622,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.2126,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9928,
        "run_prevention": 1.01,
        "strikeout": 0.9859
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "678061",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "678061",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 50.0,
            "k_percent": 16.7,
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            "woba": 0.209,
            "xwoba": 0.281,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 27.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 31.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.8999,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.2085,
            "whiff_percent": 23.4,
            "swing_percent": 52.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
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            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
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          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.9908,
            "command_and_miss": -0.1271,
            "regression_edge": -2.0,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.8857,
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            "hard_hit_edge": 0.9286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2571,
            "bb_edge": 1.55,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0191
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "678061",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 26,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 26,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.52283282543786,
              "release_spin_rate": 2148.8918500733625,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "pitches": 26,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.52283282543786,
                "release_spin_rate": 2148.8918500733625,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.5228,
              "release_spin_rate": 2148.8919,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0191,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": -0.1365,
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              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1441,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9878,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9815,
          "walk_factor": 0.9442,
          "homer_factor": 0.9609,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.072,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "678061",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9945,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9945,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9749,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9824,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9917,
            "adjusted": 1
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 18,
      "Pitches": 77,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -7 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20261004_ATL@LAD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20261004

20261004_ATL@LAD

home

Blake Snell

True

5.1

3.2

-5

2/3

3/5

9/5

Last 10 before this game (9 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 1.8984375,
      "WHIP": 1.1015625,
      "IP": 42.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 9,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.741,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.333,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.8478,
      "sample_weight": 0.624,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9279,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0688,
      "walk_factor": 1.0,
      "homer_factor": 0.835,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 31.8,
      "bb_percent": 9.2,
      "woba": 0.245,
      "xwoba": 0.228,
      "barrel_percent": 2.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 15.8,
      "whiff_percent": 34.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": null,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 42.2,
      "season_ERA": 1.898,
      "season_WHIP": 1.102,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.6164383561643836,
        "last_10": 0.3835616438356164
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 9.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6429,
        "prior_weight": 0.3571
      },
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 82,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.27067101921558,
                "release_spin_rate": 2341.8445698453625,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.2707,
              "release_spin_rate": 2341.8446,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0332,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.2374,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.8478,
          "sample_weight": 0.624,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9279,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0688,
          "walk_factor": 1.0,
          "homer_factor": 0.835,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.017,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "605483",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.955,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.955,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.897,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0429,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 9,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 97,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 9 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20261004_ATL@LAD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20261004

20261004_SD@MIL

away

Michael King

True

6.0

5.0

-3

-1

6/3

0/0

5/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.09375,
      "WHIP": 1.15625,
      "IP": 192.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 33,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.818,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.0,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0884,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0075,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9897,
      "walk_factor": 1.0,
      "homer_factor": 0.9966,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.0,
      "bb_percent": 9.2,
      "woba": 0.295,
      "xwoba": 0.322,
      "barrel_percent": 8.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 32.7,
      "whiff_percent": 24.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 36,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 33.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8684,
        "prior_weight": 0.1316
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "650633",
      "report_date": "20261004",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 33,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.0,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 23.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 26.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 121.0,
            "Pitches": 474.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 24.2,
            "Pitches": 94.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0,
            "WHIP": 1.1,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33333,
            "H_per_IP": 0.76667,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33333,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.86667,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06667
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 61.2,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 47.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 53.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 245.0,
            "Pitches": 944.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.7,
            "H": 4.7,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 5.3,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 24.5,
            "Pitches": 94.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.3351,
            "WHIP": 1.0703,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.25946,
            "H_per_IP": 0.76216,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30811,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.85946,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0973
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 33,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 192.0,
            "ER": 66.0,
            "R": 68.0,
            "H": 149.0,
            "BB": 73.0,
            "SO": 167.0,
            "HR": 20.0,
            "BF": 783.0,
            "Pitches": 3078.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0606,
            "H": 4.5152,
            "BB": 2.2121,
            "SO": 5.0606,
            "HR": 0.6061,
            "BF": 23.7273,
            "Pitches": 93.2727
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0938,
            "WHIP": 1.1562,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.34375,
            "H_per_IP": 0.77604,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38021,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.86979,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10417
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.998,
        "predicted_H": 4.727,
        "predicted_BB": 2.02,
        "predicted_SO": 5.192,
        "predicted_HR": 0.554,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.0261,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1354
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4056,
      "form_weight": 0.5944,
      "form_reliability": 0.8684,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 33.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8684,
        "prior_weight": 0.1316
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.998,
          "final": 1.9988,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.727,
          "final": 5.2433,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.02,
          "final": 1.2007,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.192,
          "final": 4.7085,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.554,
          "final": 0.7349,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.0261,
          "final": 3.0261,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1354,
          "final": 1.1354,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 61.2,
        "ER": 16,
        "H": 47,
        "BB": 19,
        "SO": 53,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 2.335135135135135,
        "WHIP": 1.0702702702702702,
        "K9": 7.735135135135135,
        "HR9": 0.8756756756756756,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 9,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-29T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7505708436513586,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 33.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8684,
          "prior_weight": 0.1316
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 6,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "650633",
      "player_name": "Michael King",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.25,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.25,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.25,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.25,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SD",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 91,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.5617,
        "runs_scored": 722.0,
        "runs_allowed": 681.0,
        "run_differential": 41.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2531,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4568,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2037,
        "offense_index": 0.9922,
        "defense_index": 1.0686,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": 18.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1884
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIL",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 103,
        "losses": 59,
        "win_pct": 0.6358,
        "runs_scored": 832.0,
        "runs_allowed": 618.0,
        "run_differential": 214.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.321,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.1358,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8148,
        "offense_index": 1.1433,
        "defense_index": 1.1775,
        "current_streak": "W5",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.0,
          "run_differential": 14.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3822
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1938,
        "offense_edge": -0.0078,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1433,
        "defense_strength": 0.0686,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1775,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9886,
        "run_prevention": 1.0258,
        "strikeout": 0.9827
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "650633",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "650633",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 730.0,
            "k_percent": 21.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.295,
            "xwoba": 0.322,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 32.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.9245,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.0549,
            "whiff_percent": 24.5,
            "swing_percent": 46.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0358,
            "command_and_miss": -0.1057,
            "regression_edge": -0.7714,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.2857,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2222,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.7429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.1,
            "bb_edge": 0.0,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0483
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "650633",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 98,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 98,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.00166640531685,
              "release_spin_rate": 2291.8143101549963,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 98,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.00166640531685,
                "release_spin_rate": 2291.8143101549963,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.0017,
              "release_spin_rate": 2291.8143,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0483,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.345,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0884,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0075,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9897,
          "walk_factor": 1.0,
          "homer_factor": 0.9966,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.027,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "650633",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0075,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0075,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9966,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9897,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 95,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20261004_SD@MIL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20261004

20261004_SD@MIL

home

Logan Henderson

True

6.0

5.0

-3

-2

2/2

1/3

8/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.471186440677966,
      "WHIP": 0.8440677966101695,
      "IP": 98.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 18,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.463,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.8,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.6816,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9421,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0503,
      "walk_factor": 0.918,
      "homer_factor": 0.9667,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 29.6,
      "bb_percent": 5.1,
      "woba": 0.252,
      "xwoba": 0.257,
      "barrel_percent": 8.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.9,
      "whiff_percent": 26.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": null,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 6.0,
      "season_IP": 98.1,
      "season_ERA": 2.471,
      "season_WHIP": 0.844,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 18.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7826,
        "prior_weight": 0.2174
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "701656",
      "report_date": "20261004",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 18,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 29.0,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 16.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 31.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 107.0,
            "Pitches": 462.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 3.2,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 6.2,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 21.4,
            "Pitches": 92.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.1724,
            "WHIP": 0.7241,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.24138,
            "H_per_IP": 0.55172,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.17241,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.06897,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13793
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 60.0,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 35.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 63.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 223.0,
            "Pitches": 922.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.5,
            "H": 3.5,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 6.3,
            "HR": 0.9,
            "BF": 22.3,
            "Pitches": 92.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.1,
            "WHIP": 0.7833,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.23333,
            "H_per_IP": 0.58333,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.05,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 18,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 98.1,
            "ER": 27.0,
            "R": 28.0,
            "H": 64.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 110.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 371.0,
            "Pitches": 1505.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.5,
            "R": 1.5556,
            "H": 3.5556,
            "BB": 1.0556,
            "SO": 6.1111,
            "HR": 0.7778,
            "BF": 20.6111,
            "Pitches": 83.6111
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.4712,
            "WHIP": 0.8441,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.27458,
            "H_per_IP": 0.65085,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.19322,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.11864,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14237
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.752,
        "predicted_H": 3.871,
        "predicted_BB": 1.319,
        "predicted_SO": 6.021,
        "predicted_HR": 0.832,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.7294,
        "predicted_WHIP": 0.8981
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4419,
      "form_weight": 0.5581,
      "form_reliability": 0.7826,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 18.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7826,
        "prior_weight": 0.2174
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.752,
          "final": 2.3034,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 3.871,
          "final": 3.0443,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.319,
          "final": 1.178,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 6.021,
          "final": 6.8954,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.832,
          "final": 0.9062,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.7294,
          "final": 2.7294,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 0.8981,
          "final": 0.8981,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 60.0,
        "ER": 14,
        "H": 35,
        "BB": 12,
        "SO": 63,
        "HR": 9,
        "ERA": 2.1,
        "WHIP": 0.7833333333333334,
        "K9": 9.450000000000001,
        "HR9": 1.35,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": true,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-23T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7169447175252327,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 8.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 18.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7826,
          "prior_weight": 0.2174
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 2,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 8,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "701656",
      "player_name": "Logan Henderson",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 8.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIL",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 103,
        "losses": 59,
        "win_pct": 0.6358,
        "runs_scored": 832.0,
        "runs_allowed": 618.0,
        "run_differential": 214.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.321,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.1358,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8148,
        "offense_index": 1.1433,
        "defense_index": 1.1775,
        "current_streak": "W5",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.0,
          "run_differential": 14.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3822
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SD",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 91,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.5617,
        "runs_scored": 722.0,
        "runs_allowed": 681.0,
        "run_differential": 41.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2531,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4568,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2037,
        "offense_index": 0.9922,
        "defense_index": 1.0686,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": 18.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1884
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1938,
        "offense_edge": 0.1433,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0078,
        "defense_strength": 0.1775,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0686,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0134,
        "run_prevention": 0.9713,
        "strikeout": 1.0064
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "701656",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "701656",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 348.0,
            "k_percent": 29.6,
            "bb_percent": 5.1,
            "woba": 0.252,
            "xwoba": 0.257,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 36.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.2333,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8148,
            "whiff_percent": 26.5,
            "swing_percent": 53.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.9063,
            "command_and_miss": 0.7521,
            "regression_edge": -0.1429,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.5714,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2444,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.1429,
            "whiff_edge": 0.1857,
            "bb_edge": 1.025,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0895
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "701656",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 95,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 95,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.2657231915627,
              "release_spin_rate": 2417.7993644891867,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 95,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.2657231915627,
                "release_spin_rate": 2417.7993644891867,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.2657,
              "release_spin_rate": 2417.7994,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0895,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.6394,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.6816,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9421,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0503,
          "walk_factor": 0.918,
          "homer_factor": 0.9667,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.005,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "701656",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9421,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9421,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.918,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9667,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0503,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 86,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20261004_SD@MIL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20261005

20261005_CHW@CLE

away

Anthony Kay

True

4.2

0.1

-13

5/1

1/1

4/0

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.3875,
      "WHIP": 1.375,
      "IP": 160.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 35,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.871,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.267,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3447,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0293,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9674,
      "walk_factor": 0.974,
      "homer_factor": 1.0474,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.2,
      "bb_percent": 7.9,
      "woba": 0.339,
      "xwoba": 0.342,
      "barrel_percent": 8.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.9,
      "whiff_percent": 23.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 44,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 35.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.875,
        "prior_weight": 0.125
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "641743",
      "report_date": "20261005",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 35,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 15.0,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 15.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 11.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 67.0,
            "Pitches": 238.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.0,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 3.0,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 2.2,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 13.4,
            "Pitches": 47.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0,
            "WHIP": 1.4667,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33333,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.46667,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.73333,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06667
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 38.2,
            "ER": 24.0,
            "R": 27.0,
            "H": 43.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 31.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 178.0,
            "Pitches": 669.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.7,
            "H": 4.3,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 3.1,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 17.8,
            "Pitches": 66.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.5862,
            "WHIP": 1.4741,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.62069,
            "H_per_IP": 1.11207,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36207,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.80172,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12931
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 35,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 160.0,
            "ER": 78.0,
            "R": 85.0,
            "H": 162.0,
            "BB": 58.0,
            "SO": 129.0,
            "HR": 21.0,
            "BF": 719.0,
            "Pitches": 2821.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.2286,
            "R": 2.4286,
            "H": 4.6286,
            "BB": 1.6571,
            "SO": 3.6857,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 20.5429,
            "Pitches": 80.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.3875,
            "WHIP": 1.375,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4875,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0125,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3625,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.80625,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13125
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 3.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.792,
        "predicted_H": 3.938,
        "predicted_BB": 1.544,
        "predicted_SO": 3.015,
        "predicted_HR": 0.408,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.2372,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4401
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4028,
      "form_weight": 0.5972,
      "form_reliability": 0.875,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 35.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.875,
        "prior_weight": 0.125
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 3.2,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.792,
          "final": 1.473,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.938,
          "final": 4.3658,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.544,
          "final": 1.3249,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.015,
          "final": 3.4118,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.408,
          "final": 0.2437,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.2372,
          "final": 4.2372,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4401,
          "final": 1.4401,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 38.2,
        "ER": 24,
        "H": 43,
        "BB": 14,
        "SO": 31,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 5.586206896551724,
        "WHIP": 1.4741379310344829,
        "K9": 7.2155172413793105,
        "HR9": 1.163793103448276,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-10-03T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.1254953965211363,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 35.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.875,
          "prior_weight": 0.125
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "641743",
      "player_name": "Anthony Kay",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHW",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "after": 4.2,
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CHW",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 84,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.5185,
        "runs_scored": 776.0,
        "runs_allowed": 720.0,
        "run_differential": 56.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3457,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7901,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4444,
        "offense_index": 1.0667,
        "defense_index": 1.0104,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": 22.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1281
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CLE",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 85,
        "losses": 77,
        "win_pct": 0.5247,
        "runs_scored": 678.0,
        "runs_allowed": 667.0,
        "run_differential": 11.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0679,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1852,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1173,
        "offense_index": 0.932,
        "defense_index": 1.0907,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.2,
          "run_differential": 21.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1343
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0062,
        "offense_edge": 0.0667,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.068,
        "defense_strength": 0.0104,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0907,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0028,
        "run_prevention": 0.9884,
        "strikeout": 1.0053
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "641743",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "641743",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 659.0,
            "k_percent": 18.2,
            "bb_percent": 7.9,
            "woba": 0.339,
            "xwoba": 0.342,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.4956,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.2252,
            "whiff_percent": 23.4,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.4736,
            "command_and_miss": -0.2757,
            "regression_edge": -0.0857,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.8571,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2571,
            "bb_edge": 0.325,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0101
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "641743",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 66,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 66,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.04480777448889,
              "release_spin_rate": 2295.850070240423,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 66,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.04480777448889,
                "release_spin_rate": 2295.850070240423,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.0448,
              "release_spin_rate": 2295.8501,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0101,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.0723,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3447,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0293,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9674,
          "walk_factor": 0.974,
          "homer_factor": 1.0474,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.003,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "641743",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0293,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0293,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.974,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0474,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9674,
            "adjusted": 4
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 78,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -13 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20261005_CHW@CLE.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20261005

20261005_CHW@CLE

home

Gavin Williams

True

5.2

5.0

-2

-1

6/4

0/3

6/11

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "WHIP": 1.1121157323688968,
      "IP": 184.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 32,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.76,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.667,
      "last_start_IP": 3.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2212,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9812,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.1069,
      "walk_factor": 0.98,
      "homer_factor": 1.1158,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 33.2,
      "bb_percent": 8.2,
      "woba": 0.294,
      "xwoba": 0.302,
      "barrel_percent": 11.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 46.6,
      "whiff_percent": 32.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": null,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 32.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8649,
        "prior_weight": 0.1351
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "668909",
      "report_date": "20261005",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 32,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.1,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 44.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 114.0,
            "Pitches": 472.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 3.6,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 8.8,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 22.8,
            "Pitches": 94.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.5412,
            "WHIP": 1.0588,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.28235,
            "H_per_IP": 0.63529,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42353,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.55294,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03529
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 51.0,
            "ER": 22.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 39.0,
            "BB": 23.0,
            "SO": 80.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 214.0,
            "Pitches": 912.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.3,
            "H": 3.9,
            "BB": 2.3,
            "SO": 8.0,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 21.4,
            "Pitches": 91.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8824,
            "WHIP": 1.2157,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.43137,
            "H_per_IP": 0.76471,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.45098,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.56863,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13725
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 32,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 184.1,
            "ER": 77.0,
            "R": 81.0,
            "H": 144.0,
            "BB": 61.0,
            "SO": 248.0,
            "HR": 28.0,
            "BF": 746.0,
            "Pitches": 2991.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.4062,
            "R": 2.5312,
            "H": 4.5,
            "BB": 1.9062,
            "SO": 7.75,
            "HR": 0.875,
            "BF": 23.3125,
            "Pitches": 93.4688
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7595,
            "WHIP": 1.1121,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.41772,
            "H_per_IP": 0.78119,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33092,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.34539,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1519
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.088,
        "predicted_H": 4.081,
        "predicted_BB": 2.24,
        "predicted_SO": 7.86,
        "predicted_HR": 0.555,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.4386,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1568
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4071,
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      "form_reliability": 0.8649,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 32.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8649,
        "prior_weight": 0.1351
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.088,
          "final": 2.4593,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.081,
          "final": 4.8622,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.24,
          "final": 1.3281,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 7.86,
          "final": 5.8816,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 0.555,
          "final": 0.7362,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.4386,
          "final": 3.4386,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1568,
          "final": 1.1568,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 51.0,
        "ER": 22,
        "H": 39,
        "BB": 23,
        "SO": 80,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 3.8823529411764706,
        "WHIP": 1.2156862745098038,
        "K9": 14.117647058823529,
        "HR9": 1.2352941176470589,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-25T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9273505351283032,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 32.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8649,
          "prior_weight": 0.1351
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 6,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 8,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "668909",
      "player_name": "Gavin Williams",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CLE",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 5.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.6667,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 5.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.6667,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.2,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": -2.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": -2.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 3.0,
            "percent_delta": 1.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 3.0,
            "percent_delta": 1.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CLE",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 85,
        "losses": 77,
        "win_pct": 0.5247,
        "runs_scored": 678.0,
        "runs_allowed": 667.0,
        "run_differential": 11.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0679,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1852,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1173,
        "offense_index": 0.932,
        "defense_index": 1.0907,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.2,
          "run_differential": 21.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1343
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CHW",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 84,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.5185,
        "runs_scored": 776.0,
        "runs_allowed": 720.0,
        "run_differential": 56.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3457,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7901,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4444,
        "offense_index": 1.0667,
        "defense_index": 1.0104,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": 22.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1281
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0062,
        "offense_edge": -0.068,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0667,
        "defense_strength": 0.0907,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0104,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0003,
        "run_prevention": 1.0013,
        "strikeout": 0.9949
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "668909",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "668909",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 700.0,
            "k_percent": 33.2,
            "bb_percent": 8.2,
            "woba": 0.294,
            "xwoba": 0.302,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 11.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 46.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.2974,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.9953,
            "whiff_percent": 32.8,
            "swing_percent": 49.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1041,
            "command_and_miss": 1.1436,
            "regression_edge": -0.2286,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.2857,
            "barrel_edge": -0.9333,
            "hard_hit_edge": -1.2429,
            "whiff_edge": 1.0857,
            "bb_edge": 0.25,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0624
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "668909",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 92,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 92,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.97845935651245,
              "release_spin_rate": 2292.19753528252,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 92,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.97845935651245,
                "release_spin_rate": 2292.19753528252,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.9785,
              "release_spin_rate": 2292.1975,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0624,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.4457,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2212,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9812,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.1069,
          "walk_factor": 0.98,
          "homer_factor": 1.1158,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.008,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "668909",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9812,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9812,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.98,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.1158,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 8.0,
            "factor": 1.1069,
            "adjusted": 9
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 98,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20261005_CHW@CLE.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20261005

20261005_NYY@TB

away

Cam Schlittler

True

6.0

4.1

-5

3/6

4/1

7/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 1.89,
      "WHIP": 0.905,
      "IP": 200.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 34,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.882,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.667,
      "last_start_IP": 6.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.7136,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9393,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0771,
      "walk_factor": 0.944,
      "homer_factor": 0.9612,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 31.4,
      "bb_percent": 6.4,
      "woba": 0.243,
      "xwoba": 0.262,
      "barrel_percent": 7.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.3,
      "whiff_percent": 29.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 95,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 6.0,
      "season_IP": 200.0,
      "season_ERA": 1.89,
      "season_WHIP": 0.905,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 34.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8718,
        "prior_weight": 0.1282
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "693645",
      "report_date": "20261005",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 34,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.1,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 6.0,
            "H": 12.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 39.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 106.0,
            "Pitches": 475.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 0.6,
            "R": 1.2,
            "H": 2.4,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 7.8,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 21.2,
            "Pitches": 95.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 0.9529,
            "WHIP": 0.7059,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.10588,
            "H_per_IP": 0.42353,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28235,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.37647,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03529
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 60.1,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 29.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 78.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 228.0,
            "Pitches": 965.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 0.7,
            "R": 1.0,
            "H": 2.9,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 7.8,
            "HR": 0.3,
            "BF": 22.8,
            "Pitches": 96.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.0442,
            "WHIP": 0.7956,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.11602,
            "H_per_IP": 0.48066,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31492,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.29282,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.04972
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 34,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 200.0,
            "ER": 42.0,
            "R": 52.0,
            "H": 131.0,
            "BB": 50.0,
            "SO": 249.0,
            "HR": 16.0,
            "BF": 783.0,
            "Pitches": 3158.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.2353,
            "R": 1.5294,
            "H": 3.8529,
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            "SO": 7.3235,
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            "BF": 23.0294,
            "Pitches": 92.8824
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          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.89,
            "WHIP": 0.905,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.21,
            "H_per_IP": 0.655,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.245,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
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        "predicted_BB": 1.756,
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        "predicted_HR": 0.363,
        "predicted_ERA": 1.6141,
        "predicted_WHIP": 0.8524
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4042,
      "form_weight": 0.5958,
      "form_reliability": 0.8718,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 34.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8718,
        "prior_weight": 0.1282
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.053,
          "final": 1.4357,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.247,
          "final": 3.1472,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "form": 1.756,
          "final": 2.6629,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 7.462,
          "final": 6.0628,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.363,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.6141,
          "final": 1.6141,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 0.8524,
          "final": 0.8524,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
        "IP": 60.1,
        "ER": 7,
        "H": 29,
        "BB": 19,
        "SO": 78,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 1.0441988950276242,
        "WHIP": 0.7955801104972375,
        "K9": 11.6353591160221,
        "HR9": 0.4475138121546961,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 7,
        "dominant_form": true,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-29T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.6866325542112777,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
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        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 34.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8718,
          "prior_weight": 0.1282
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 4,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 0
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "693645",
      "player_name": "Cam Schlittler",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "NYY",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
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          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
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              "projection_effect": "better",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 3.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.75,
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              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
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            "biggest_boost": {
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            "biggest_deboost": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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            "delta": 3.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.75,
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        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
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          "biggest_boost": {
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          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.5,
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            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "NYY",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 93,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.5776,
        "runs_scored": 739.0,
        "runs_allowed": 601.0,
        "run_differential": 138.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8571,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5901,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7329,
        "offense_index": 1.0225,
        "defense_index": 1.2025,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.171
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TB",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 98,
        "losses": 64,
        "win_pct": 0.6049,
        "runs_scored": 736.0,
        "runs_allowed": 650.0,
        "run_differential": 86.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5309,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5432,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0123,
        "offense_index": 1.0121,
        "defense_index": 1.1188,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.2,
          "run_differential": 6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1542
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0168,
        "offense_edge": 0.0225,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0121,
        "defense_strength": 0.2025,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1188,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0063,
        "run_prevention": 0.9808,
        "strikeout": 0.9995
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "693645",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "693645",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 691.0,
            "k_percent": 31.4,
            "bb_percent": 6.4,
            "woba": 0.243,
            "xwoba": 0.262,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.3,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6999,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.7524,
            "whiff_percent": 29.4,
            "swing_percent": 52.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.8911,
            "command_and_miss": 0.9479,
            "regression_edge": -0.5429,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.4286,
            "barrel_edge": -0.0222,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0571,
            "whiff_edge": 0.6,
            "bb_edge": 0.7,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.28
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "693645",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 96,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 96,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 95.84565678559713,
              "release_spin_rate": 2515.855995429108,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 96,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 95.84565678559713,
                "release_spin_rate": 2515.855995429108,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 95.8457,
              "release_spin_rate": 2515.856,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.28,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 2.0,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.7136,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9393,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0771,
          "walk_factor": 0.944,
          "homer_factor": 0.9612,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.019,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "693645",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9393,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9393,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.944,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9612,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 8.0,
            "factor": 1.0771,
            "adjusted": 9
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 113,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20261005_NYY@TB.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20261005

20261005_NYY@TB

home

Freddy Peralta

True

5.1

4.2

-2

-3

7/3

2/1

4/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 4.420118343195266,
      "WHIP": 1.3254437869822486,
      "IP": 169.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 32,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.281,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.6,
      "last_start_IP": 5.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1426,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9879,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0011,
      "walk_factor": 0.988,
      "homer_factor": 0.9625,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.4,
      "bb_percent": 8.6,
      "woba": 0.323,
      "xwoba": 0.302,
      "barrel_percent": 5.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.2,
      "whiff_percent": 26.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": null,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 32.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8649,
        "prior_weight": 0.1351
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "642547",
      "report_date": "20261005",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 32,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.0,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 16.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 109.0,
            "Pitches": 442.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 0.6,
            "R": 0.6,
            "H": 3.2,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 21.8,
            "Pitches": 88.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 0.9643,
            "WHIP": 0.8929,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.10714,
            "H_per_IP": 0.57143,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.32143,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.82143,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03571
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 55.1,
            "ER": 20.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 41.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 43.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 218.0,
            "Pitches": 866.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.1,
            "BB": 1.5,
            "SO": 4.3,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 21.8,
            "Pitches": 86.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.253,
            "WHIP": 1.012,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.36145,
            "H_per_IP": 0.74096,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.27108,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.77711,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10843
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 32,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 169.0,
            "ER": 83.0,
            "R": 91.0,
            "H": 161.0,
            "BB": 63.0,
            "SO": 156.0,
            "HR": 23.0,
            "BF": 730.0,
            "Pitches": 2959.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.5938,
            "R": 2.8438,
            "H": 5.0312,
            "BB": 1.9688,
            "SO": 4.875,
            "HR": 0.7188,
            "BF": 22.8125,
            "Pitches": 92.4688
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.4201,
            "WHIP": 1.3254,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.49112,
            "H_per_IP": 0.95266,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37278,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.92308,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13609
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.699,
        "predicted_H": 4.142,
        "predicted_BB": 1.797,
        "predicted_SO": 4.679,
        "predicted_HR": 0.502,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.7486,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0675
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4071,
      "form_weight": 0.5929,
      "form_reliability": 0.8649,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 32.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8649,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.699,
          "final": 2.6357,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 4.142,
          "final": 5.3054,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.797,
          "final": 1.8796,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.679,
          "final": 4.4026,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.502,
          "final": 0.7047,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.7486,
          "final": 2.7486,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0675,
          "final": 1.0675,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 55.1,
        "ER": 20,
        "H": 41,
        "BB": 15,
        "SO": 43,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 3.253012048192771,
        "WHIP": 1.0120481927710843,
        "K9": 6.993975903614458,
        "HR9": 0.9759036144578312,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-25T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8514587326241692,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 7.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 32.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8649,
          "prior_weight": 0.1351
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "642547",
      "player_name": "Freddy Peralta",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TB",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
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              "delta": -0.2333,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 162,
        "wins": 98,
        "losses": 64,
        "win_pct": 0.6049,
        "runs_scored": 736.0,
        "runs_allowed": 650.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5309,
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        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0123,
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        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.2,
          "run_differential": 6.0
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      },
      "opponent": {
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        "runs_scored": 739.0,
        "runs_allowed": 601.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8571,
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        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7329,
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        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
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          "run_differential": 1.0
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      },
      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": 0.0121,
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.002,
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      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "642547",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "642547",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "avg_best_speed": 76.4239,
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          "league_medians": {
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          "components": {
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          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "642547",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 83,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 83,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
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              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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            ],
            "summary": {
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            "components": {
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              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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          "predicted_H": {
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          "predicted_BB": {
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          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9625,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0011,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 96,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20261005_NYY@TB.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20261006

20261006_LAD@ATL

away

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

True

6.1

7.0

3/4

1/1

4/10

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.5297297297297296,
      "WHIP": 0.8702702702702703,
      "IP": 185.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.607,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.667,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.6349,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.946,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.036,
      "walk_factor": 0.934,
      "homer_factor": 0.9344,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 25.7,
      "bb_percent": 5.9,
      "woba": 0.242,
      "xwoba": 0.266,
      "barrel_percent": 6.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.5,
      "whiff_percent": 27.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": null,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "808967",
      "report_date": "20261006",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 33.1,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 37.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 125.0,
            "Pitches": 467.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.2,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 3.6,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 7.4,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 25.0,
            "Pitches": 93.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.16,
            "WHIP": 0.75,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.24,
            "H_per_IP": 0.54,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.11,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 65.1,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 39.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 69.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 253.0,
            "Pitches": 974.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.2,
            "ER": 1.5,
            "R": 1.7,
            "H": 3.9,
            "BB": 1.7,
            "SO": 6.9,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 25.3,
            "Pitches": 97.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.0663,
            "WHIP": 0.8571,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.22959,
            "H_per_IP": 0.59694,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2602,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.05612,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10714
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 28,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 185.0,
            "ER": 52.0,
            "R": 55.0,
            "H": 119.0,
            "BB": 42.0,
            "SO": 182.0,
            "HR": 20.0,
            "BF": 708.0,
            "Pitches": 2734.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.2,
            "ER": 1.8571,
            "R": 1.9643,
            "H": 4.25,
            "BB": 1.5,
            "SO": 6.5,
            "HR": 0.7143,
            "BF": 25.2857,
            "Pitches": 97.6429
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.5297,
            "WHIP": 0.8703,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.28108,
            "H_per_IP": 0.64324,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.22703,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.98378,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10811
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.902,
        "predicted_H": 4.278,
        "predicted_BB": 1.691,
        "predicted_SO": 6.972,
        "predicted_HR": 0.866,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.5672,
        "predicted_WHIP": 0.8954
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.414,
      "form_weight": 0.586,
      "form_reliability": 0.8485,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.2,
          "form": 6.2,
          "final": 6.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.902,
          "final": 2.3566,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.278,
          "final": 4.9909,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.691,
          "final": 1.8189,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 6.972,
          "final": 6.9836,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.866,
          "final": 0.5075,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.5672,
          "final": 2.5672,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 0.8954,
          "final": 0.8954,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 65.1,
        "ER": 15,
        "H": 39,
        "BB": 17,
        "SO": 69,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 2.0663265306122445,
        "WHIP": 0.857142857142857,
        "K9": 9.505102040816325,
        "HR9": 0.9642857142857142,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 8,
        "dominant_form": true,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-23T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7142559190957065,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty",
        "rates_per_inning": {
          "H": 0.5792,
          "BB": 0.2165,
          "SO": 1.062,
          "HR": 0.1341
        },
        "source": "recent_role_blend",
        "tto_penalty": 1.0081,
        "role_avg_IP": 6.607,
        "recent_avg_IP": 6.667
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 28.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8485,
          "prior_weight": 0.1515
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "team_form_adjustment",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors",
        "factors": {
          "ip": 1.0136,
          "run_prevention": 0.9719,
          "strikeout": 1.0044
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "savant_pitcher_quality",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors",
        "factors": {
          "strikeout_factor": 1.036,
          "walk_factor": 0.934,
          "homer_factor": 0.9344,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.946,
          "quality_score": 0.6349
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "opposing_lineup_context",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, platoon split against his hand, batter-versus-pitcher history, weighted by plate appearances",
        "lineup_multipliers": {
          "H": 1.0094,
          "BB": 0.947,
          "SO": 0.9856,
          "HR": 1.0992
        },
        "weights": {
          "H": 0.0,
          "BB": 0.15,
          "SO": 0.35,
          "HR": 0.0
        },
        "applied_multipliers": {
          "H": 1.0,
          "BB": 0.9919,
          "SO": 0.9949,
          "HR": 1.0
        },
        "earned_run_factor": 0.9985,
        "before": {
          "H": 3.424,
          "BB": 1.279,
          "SO": 6.488,
          "HR": 0.799,
          "ER": 1.524,
          "ERA": 2.224
        },
        "after": {
          "H": 3.424,
          "BB": 1.2686,
          "SO": 6.4549,
          "HR": 0.799,
          "ER": 1.5216,
          "ERA": 2.221
        },
        "by_hitter": [
          {
            "hitter": "Drake Baldwin",
            "plate_appearances": 4.532,
            "stand": "L",
            "H_batter": 1.0749,
            "H_platoon": 0.9905,
            "H_bvp": 1.0,
            "BB_batter": 1.0503,
            "BB_platoon": 1.0256,
            "BB_bvp": 1.0,
            "SO_batter": 0.9527,
            "SO_platoon": 0.9877,
            "SO_bvp": 1.0,
            "HR_batter": 1.2155,
            "HR_platoon": 1.0102,
            "HR_bvp": 1.0,
            "bvp_at_bats": null,
            "combined": {
              "H": 1.0647,
              "BB": 1.0772,
              "SO": 0.941,
              "HR": 1.2279
            }
          },
          {
            "hitter": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.",
            "plate_appearances": 4.342,
            "stand": "R",
            "H_batter": 1.0027,
            "H_platoon": 0.9909,
            "H_bvp": 1.0,
            "BB_batter": 1.2377,
            "BB_platoon": 0.9543,
            "BB_bvp": 1.0,
            "SO_batter": 0.9706,
            "SO_platoon": 1.0158,
            "SO_bvp": 1.0,
            "HR_batter": 1.2273,
            "HR_platoon": 0.9906,
            "HR_bvp": 1.0,
            "bvp_at_bats": null,
            "combined": {
              "H": 0.9936,
              "BB": 1.1811,
              "SO": 0.9859,
              "HR": 1.2158
            }
          },
          {
            "hitter": "Matt Olson",
            "plate_appearances": 4.268,
            "stand": "L",
            "H_batter": 1.0081,
            "H_platoon": 0.9905,
            "H_bvp": 0.9563,
            "BB_batter": 1.0411,
            "BB_platoon": 1.0256,
            "BB_bvp": 1.0,
            "SO_batter": 1.1001,
            "SO_platoon": 0.9877,
            "SO_bvp": 1.0072,
            "HR_batter": 1.652,
            "HR_platoon": 1.0102,
            "HR_bvp": 0.9563,
            "bvp_at_bats": 6.0,
            "combined": {
              "H": 0.9549,
              "BB": 1.0678,
              "SO": 1.0944,
              "HR": 1.5959
            }
          },
          {
            "hitter": "Ozzie Albies",
            "plate_appearances": 4.091,
            "stand": "L",
            "H_batter": 0.9911,
            "H_platoon": 0.9905,
            "H_bvp": 0.9975,
            "BB_batter": 0.8644,
            "BB_platoon": 1.0256,
            "BB_bvp": 1.0,
            "SO_batter": 0.7099,
            "SO_platoon": 0.9877,
            "SO_bvp": 1.0509,
            "HR_batter": 1.0931,
            "HR_platoon": 1.0102,
            "HR_bvp": 0.9667,
            "bvp_at_bats": 5.0,
            "combined": {
              "H": 0.9792,
              "BB": 0.8865,
              "SO": 0.7369,
              "HR": 1.0675
            }
          },
          {
            "hitter": "Michael Harris II",
            "plate_appearances": 4.322,
            "stand": "L",
            "H_batter": 1.1674,
            "H_platoon": 0.9905,
            "H_bvp": 1.0053,
            "BB_batter": 0.4814,
            "BB_platoon": 1.0256,
            "BB_bvp": 1.0,
            "SO_batter": 0.8714,
            "SO_platoon": 0.9877,
            "SO_bvp": 1.0206,
            "HR_batter": 1.2796,
            "HR_platoon": 1.0102,
            "HR_bvp": 0.9563,
            "bvp_at_bats": 6.0,
            "combined": {
              "H": 1.1624,
              "BB": 0.4937,
              "SO": 0.8784,
              "HR": 1.2362
            }
          },
          {
            "hitter": "Mauricio Dub\u00f3n",
            "plate_appearances": 4.047,
            "stand": "R",
            "H_batter": 1.0911,
            "H_platoon": 0.9909,
            "H_bvp": 1.0,
            "BB_batter": 0.7309,
            "BB_platoon": 0.9543,
            "BB_bvp": 1.0,
            "SO_batter": 0.5984,
            "SO_platoon": 1.0158,
            "SO_bvp": 1.0,
            "HR_batter": 0.7342,
            "HR_platoon": 0.9906,
            "HR_bvp": 1.0,
            "bvp_at_bats": null,
            "combined": {
              "H": 1.0812,
              "BB": 0.6975,
              "SO": 0.6079,
              "HR": 0.7273
            }
          },
          {
            "hitter": "Lane Thomas",
            "plate_appearances": 3.609,
            "stand": "R",
            "H_batter": 0.9589,
            "H_platoon": 0.9909,
            "H_bvp": 1.0,
            "BB_batter": 1.1978,
            "BB_platoon": 0.9543,
            "BB_bvp": 1.0,
            "SO_batter": 1.125,
            "SO_platoon": 1.0158,
            "SO_bvp": 1.0,
            "HR_batter": 0.9802,
            "HR_platoon": 0.9906,
            "HR_bvp": 1.0,
            "bvp_at_bats": null,
            "combined": {
              "H": 0.9502,
              "BB": 1.1431,
              "SO": 1.1428,
              "HR": 0.971
            }
          },
          {
            "hitter": "Austin Riley",
            "plate_appearances": 3.72,
            "stand": "R",
            "H_batter": 0.9409,
            "H_platoon": 0.9909,
            "H_bvp": 0.9991,
            "BB_batter": 0.9251,
            "BB_platoon": 0.9543,
            "BB_bvp": 1.0,
            "SO_batter": 1.3699,
            "SO_platoon": 1.0158,
            "SO_bvp": 1.0103,
            "HR_batter": 1.0129,
            "HR_platoon": 0.9906,
            "HR_bvp": 0.9667,
            "bvp_at_bats": 5.0,
            "combined": {
              "H": 0.9315,
              "BB": 0.8828,
              "SO": 1.4059,
              "HR": 0.97
            }
          },
          {
            "hitter": "Ha-Seong Kim",
            "plate_appearances": 3.174,
            "stand": "R",
            "H_batter": 0.8845,
            "H_platoon": 0.9909,
            "H_bvp": 1.0533,
            "BB_batter": 1.1987,
            "BB_platoon": 0.9543,
            "BB_bvp": 1.0,
            "SO_batter": 1.1558,
            "SO_platoon": 1.0158,
            "SO_bvp": 1.0048,
            "HR_batter": 0.6263,
            "HR_platoon": 0.9906,
            "HR_bvp": 1.15,
            "bvp_at_bats": 7.0,
            "combined": {
              "H": 0.9232,
              "BB": 1.1439,
              "SO": 1.1797,
              "HR": 0.7135
            }
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "step": "kpi_run_environment",
        "description": "KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale",
        "applied": true,
        "kpi_staff_exposure": {
          "usage": "starter",
          "batters_faced": 23.201
        },
        "player_attribution": {
          "home_runs": {
            "model_delta": -0.6627,
            "weighted_stage_delta": -0.2916
          },
          "away_runs": {
            "model_delta": -0.4307,
            "weighted_stage_delta": -0.3359
          },
          "home_win": {
            "model_delta": 0.02,
            "weighted_stage_delta": 0.0
          }
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.2,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 6,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "market_blend",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Starter continuous line blended with his own props: model x (market/model) ** w; integer line stays reconciled to the club score",
        "stats_blended": {
          "ER": {
            "model": 1.5216,
            "market_implied": 1.8011,
            "market_multiplier": 1.1837,
            "weight": 0.4659,
            "effective_multiplier": 1.0817,
            "lines": [
              1.5
            ],
            "books": 2,
            "props": [
              {
                "market": "pitcher_earned_runs",
                "point": 1.5,
                "books": 2,
                "market_p_over": 0.5375,
                "model_p_over": 0.4494,
                "implied_multiplier": 1.1837
              }
            ]
          },
          "H": {
            "model": 3.424,
            "market_implied": 4.8449,
            "market_multiplier": 1.415,
            "weight": 0.4659,
            "effective_multiplier": 1.1755,
            "lines": [
              4.5
            ],
            "books": 4,
            "props": [
              {
                "market": "pitcher_hits_allowed",
                "point": 4.5,
                "books": 4,
                "market_p_over": 0.5319,
                "model_p_over": 0.2603,
                "implied_multiplier": 1.415
              }
            ]
          },
          "OUTS": {
            "model": 18.498,
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  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
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  ],
  "provenance": {
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    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20261006

20261006_LAD@ATL

home

Chris Sale

True

6.0

5.0

-3

6/7

1/0

5/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

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    "starter_workload_floor": null,
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      "player_id": "519242",
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            "SO_per_IP": 1.32911,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07595
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        "predicted_ER": 1.878,
        "predicted_H": 4.389,
        "predicted_BB": 1.023,
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              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.3333,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.3333,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0368,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.1667,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 3,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 2,
            "better_metrics": 2,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.1667,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.3333,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          }
        },
        {
          "index": 8,
          "step": "market_blend",
          "description": "Starter continuous line blended with his own props: model x (market/model) ** w; integer line stays reconciled to the club score",
          "stats": {},
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          }
        },
        {
          "index": 9,
          "step": "play_by_play_realization",
          "description": "Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -2.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.2857,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": {
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              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "delta": -2.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.2857,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          }
        },
        {
          "index": 10,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          }
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
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            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
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            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.5,
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            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.3333,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": -0.3333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0526,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.1667,
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            "material": true
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        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 4,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
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          "better_metrics": 1,
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          "biggest_boost": {
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "percent_delta": -0.3333,
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            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2008,
        "offense_edge": 0.0201,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1012,
        "defense_strength": 0.1619,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.2123,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9928,
        "run_prevention": 1.01,
        "strikeout": 0.9859
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "519242",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "519242",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 601.0,
            "k_percent": 30.9,
            "bb_percent": 4.8,
            "woba": 0.259,
            "xwoba": 0.267,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 35.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.8972,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.4361,
            "whiff_percent": 30.4,
            "swing_percent": 50.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.8395,
            "command_and_miss": 1.0457,
            "regression_edge": -0.2286,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.2857,
            "barrel_edge": 0.2222,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.4,
            "whiff_edge": 0.7429,
            "bb_edge": 1.1,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0655
          },
          "quality_score": 0.7139,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9393,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.08,
          "walk_factor": 0.912,
          "homer_factor": 0.9277,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.008,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "519242",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9393,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9393,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.912,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9277,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 8.0,
            "factor": 1.08,
            "adjusted": 9
          }
        }
      },
      "club_form": "game.<side>_team.predicted_performance.team_form"
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "IP": 6.0,
      "H": 6,
      "R": 3,
      "ER": 2,
      "BB": 1,
      "SO": 5,
      "HR": 1,
      "BF": 28,
      "Pitches": 99,
      "source": "play_by_play_realizer_v1",
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 2
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20261006_LAD@ATL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20261006

20261006_MIL@SD

away

Dustin May

True

4.0

3.0

-3

8/3

2/2

4/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.695652173913044,
      "WHIP": 1.3180778032036613,
      "IP": 145.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 31,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.699,
      "recent_avg_IP": 3.4,
      "last_start_IP": 3.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.172,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0146,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9937,
      "walk_factor": 0.978,
      "homer_factor": 1.0567,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.2,
      "bb_percent": 8.1,
      "woba": 0.317,
      "xwoba": 0.323,
      "barrel_percent": 7.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 44.3,
      "whiff_percent": 23.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": null,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669160",
      "report_date": "20261006",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 31,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 17.0,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 17.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 74.0,
            "Pitches": 304.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.1,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 3.4,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 14.8,
            "Pitches": 60.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.7647,
            "WHIP": 1.2941,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.52941,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.29412,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.29412,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.23529
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 36.2,
            "ER": 23.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 37.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 38.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 162.0,
            "Pitches": 648.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.2,
            "ER": 2.3,
            "R": 2.3,
            "H": 3.7,
            "BB": 1.5,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 16.2,
            "Pitches": 64.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.6455,
            "WHIP": 1.4182,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.62727,
            "H_per_IP": 1.00909,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.40909,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.03636,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.19091
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 31,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 145.2,
            "ER": 76.0,
            "R": 79.0,
            "H": 142.0,
            "BB": 50.0,
            "SO": 144.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 621.0,
            "Pitches": 2399.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.4516,
            "R": 2.5484,
            "H": 4.5806,
            "BB": 1.6129,
            "SO": 4.6452,
            "HR": 0.4516,
            "BF": 20.0323,
            "Pitches": 77.3871
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.6957,
            "WHIP": 1.3181,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.52174,
            "H_per_IP": 0.97483,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34325,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.98856,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09611
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 3.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.111,
        "predicted_H": 3.788,
        "predicted_BB": 1.328,
        "predicted_SO": 4.235,
        "predicted_HR": 0.706,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.9978,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3455
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4087,
      "form_weight": 0.5913,
      "form_reliability": 0.8611,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.1,
          "form": 3.2,
          "final": 4.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.111,
          "final": 2.883,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.788,
          "final": 3.8746,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.328,
          "final": 1.6026,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 4.235,
          "final": 2.9129,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.706,
          "final": 0.8262,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.9978,
          "final": 4.9978,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3455,
          "final": 1.3455,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 36.2,
        "ER": 23,
        "H": 37,
        "BB": 15,
        "SO": 38,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 5.645454545454545,
        "WHIP": 1.418181818181818,
        "K9": 9.327272727272726,
        "HR9": 1.718181818181818,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-26T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.1309337947914393,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty",
        "rates_per_inning": {
          "H": 0.9871,
          "BB": 0.3194,
          "SO": 1.137,
          "HR": 0.1637
        },
        "source": "recent_role_blend",
        "tto_penalty": 0.9965,
        "role_avg_IP": 4.699,
        "recent_avg_IP": 3.4
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 1.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 31.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8611,
          "prior_weight": 0.1389
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "team_form_adjustment",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors",
        "factors": {
          "ip": 1.0133,
          "run_prevention": 0.9715,
          "strikeout": 1.0064
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "savant_pitcher_quality",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors",
        "factors": {
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9937,
          "walk_factor": 0.978,
          "homer_factor": 1.0567,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0146,
          "quality_score": -0.172
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "opposing_lineup_context",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, platoon split against his hand, batter-versus-pitcher history, weighted by plate appearances",
        "lineup_multipliers": {
          "H": 1.0089,
          "BB": 0.9815,
          "SO": 0.9569,
          "HR": 1.011
        },
        "weights": {
          "H": 0.0,
          "BB": 0.15,
          "SO": 0.35,
          "HR": 0.0
        },
        "applied_multipliers": {
          "H": 1.0,
          "BB": 0.9972,
          "SO": 0.9847,
          "HR": 1.0
        },
        "earned_run_factor": 0.9995,
        "before": {
          "H": 3.791,
          "BB": 1.227,
          "SO": 4.525,
          "HR": 0.627,
          "ER": 2.011,
          "ERA": 4.517
        },
        "after": {
          "H": 3.791,
          "BB": 1.2236,
          "SO": 4.4558,
          "HR": 0.627,
          "ER": 2.01,
          "ERA": 4.516
        },
        "by_hitter": [
          {
            "hitter": "Fernando Tatis Jr.",
            "plate_appearances": 4.504,
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      "club_form": "game.<side>_team.predicted_performance.team_form"
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      "source": "play_by_play_realizer_v1",
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  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -5."
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  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20261006_MIL@SD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20261006

20261006_MIL@SD

home

Nick Pivetta

True

4.0

4.1

-1

4/5

1/0

2/4

Last 10 before this game (9 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "WHIP": 1.0526315789473684,
      "IP": 38.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 9,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.222,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.4,
      "last_start_IP": 3.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
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      "barrel_percent": 10.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.2,
      "whiff_percent": 22.8
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          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          }
        },
        {
          "index": 8,
          "step": "play_by_play_realization",
          "description": "Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "percent_delta": 0.5,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
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              "percent_delta": 0.3333,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.2,
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            },
            {
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
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          }
        },
        {
          "index": 9,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
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          }
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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            "percent_delta": -0.2,
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            "material": true
          },
          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": {
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          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1938,
        "offense_edge": -0.0072,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1441,
        "defense_strength": 0.0679,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1767,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9885,
        "run_prevention": 1.026,
        "strikeout": 0.9827
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "601713",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "601713",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 100.0,
            "k_percent": 30.0,
            "bb_percent": 5.7,
            "woba": 0.249,
            "xwoba": 0.277,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 10.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.1978,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.7991,
            "whiff_percent": 22.8,
            "swing_percent": 47.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.5062,
            "command_and_miss": 0.5629,
            "regression_edge": -0.8,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.0,
            "barrel_edge": -0.6444,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3429,
            "bb_edge": 0.875,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0365
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1561,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9867,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0141,
          "walk_factor": 0.9685,
          "homer_factor": 1.0105,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.028,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "601713",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.994,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.994,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9858,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0047,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0063,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      },
      "club_form": "game.<side>_team.predicted_performance.team_form"
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "IP": 4.0,
      "H": 4,
      "R": 3,
      "ER": 3,
      "BB": 1,
      "SO": 2,
      "HR": 0,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 69,
      "source": "play_by_play_realizer_v1",
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 9 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20261006_MIL@SD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20261007

20261007_CLE@CHW

away

Daniel Espino

True

4.0

0.2

-10

-2

3/2

1/1

5/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.9375,
      "WHIP": 1.3125,
      "IP": 16.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 15,
      "role_avg_IP": 1.333,
      "recent_avg_IP": 1.333,
      "last_start_IP": 1.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.3987,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9661,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.072,
      "walk_factor": 1.0144,
      "homer_factor": 1.0168,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 38.5,
      "bb_percent": 10.8,
      "woba": 0.299,
      "xwoba": 0.264,
      "barrel_percent": 12.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.4,
      "whiff_percent": 36.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 61,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 3.304,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.3979,
        "prior_weight": 0.6021
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "682982",
      "report_date": "20261007",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 15,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 3.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 18.0,
            "Pitches": 81.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 0.2,
            "ER": 0.8,
            "R": 0.8,
            "H": 0.6,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 1.0,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 3.6,
            "Pitches": 16.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 9.0,
            "WHIP": 1.75,
            "ER_per_IP": 1.0,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75,
            "BB_per_IP": 1.0,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.25,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.5
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 11.0,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 8.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 16.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 45.0,
            "Pitches": 184.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.4,
            "R": 0.4,
            "H": 0.8,
            "BB": 0.5,
            "SO": 1.6,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 4.5,
            "Pitches": 18.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.2727,
            "WHIP": 1.1818,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.36364,
            "H_per_IP": 0.72727,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.45455,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.45455,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18182
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 15,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 16.0,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 13.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 25.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 68.0,
            "Pitches": 285.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.4667,
            "R": 0.4667,
            "H": 0.8667,
            "BB": 0.5333,
            "SO": 1.6667,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 4.5333,
            "Pitches": 19.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9375,
            "WHIP": 1.3125,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4375,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8125,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.5,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.5625,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1875
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 3.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.691,
        "predicted_H": 2.634,
        "predicted_BB": 1.506,
        "predicted_SO": 3.281,
        "predicted_HR": 0.645,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.1651,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4046
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.6044,
      "form_weight": 0.3956,
      "form_reliability": 0.3979,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 3.304,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.3979,
        "prior_weight": 0.6021
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.1,
          "form": 3.0,
          "final": 3.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.691,
          "final": 3.0865,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.634,
          "final": 2.2508,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "form": 1.506,
          "final": 2.409,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 3.281,
          "final": 3.1112,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.645,
          "final": 0.8596,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.1651,
          "final": 5.1651,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4046,
          "final": 1.4046,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
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        "ER": 4,
        "H": 8,
        "BB": 5,
        "SO": 16,
        "HR": 2,
        "ERA": 3.272727272727273,
        "WHIP": 1.1818181818181819,
        "K9": 13.090909090909092,
        "HR9": 1.6363636363636365,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-10-03T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9473142792903005,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty",
        "rates_per_inning": {
          "H": 0.9186,
          "BB": 0.4311,
          "SO": 0.9776,
          "HR": 0.1621
        },
        "source": "recent_role_blend",
        "tto_penalty": 0.9965,
        "role_avg_IP": 1.333,
        "recent_avg_IP": 1.333
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 3.304,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.3979,
          "prior_weight": 0.6021
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "team_form_adjustment",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors",
        "factors": {
          "ip": 1.0003,
          "run_prevention": 1.0014,
          "strikeout": 0.9948
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "savant_pitcher_quality",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors",
        "factors": {
          "strikeout_factor": 1.072,
          "walk_factor": 1.0144,
          "homer_factor": 1.0168,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9661,
          "quality_score": 0.3987
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "opposing_lineup_context",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, platoon split against his hand, batter-versus-pitcher history, weighted by plate appearances",
        "lineup_multipliers": {
          "H": 0.9847,
          "BB": 1.1303,
          "SO": 1.0849,
          "HR": 1.1176
        },
        "weights": {
          "H": 0.0,
          "BB": 0.15,
          "SO": 0.35,
          "HR": 0.0
        },
        "applied_multipliers": {
          "H": 1.0,
          "BB": 1.0185,
          "SO": 1.0289,
          "HR": 1.0
        },
        "earned_run_factor": 1.0045,
        "before": {
          "H": 3.623,
          "BB": 1.7,
          "SO": 3.829,
          "HR": 0.637,
          "ER": 2.146,
          "ERA": 4.905
        },
        "after": {
          "H": 3.623,
          "BB": 1.7314,
          "SO": 3.9397,
          "HR": 0.637,
          "ER": 2.1558,
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        },
        "by_hitter": [
          {
            "hitter": "Sam Antonacci",
            "plate_appearances": 4.309,
            "stand": "L",
            "H_batter": 1.0476,
            "H_platoon": 0.9908,
            "H_bvp": 1.0,
            "BB_batter": 0.9158,
            "BB_platoon": 1.0245,
            "BB_bvp": 1.0,
            "SO_batter": 0.6895,
            "SO_platoon": 0.9883,
            "SO_bvp": 1.0,
            "HR_batter": 0.6323,
            "HR_platoon": 1.0112,
            "HR_bvp": 1.0,
            "bvp_at_bats": null,
            "combined": {
              "H": 1.038,
              "BB": 0.9382,
              "SO": 0.6814,
              "HR": 0.6394
            }
          },
          {
            "hitter": "Miguel Vargas",
            "plate_appearances": 4.146,
            "stand": "R",
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      "Pitches": 51,
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  "findings": [
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      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -10 outs from the projected workload."
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  ],
  "provenance": {
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    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20261007

20261007_CLE@CHW

home

Sean Newcomb

True

3.1

2.0

-4

-2

4/1

1/0

3/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

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          "player_name": "",
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          "source_url": null,
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      },
      "club_form": "game.<side>_team.predicted_performance.team_form"
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    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "R": 2,
      "ER": 2,
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      "HR": 0,
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      "Pitches": 66,
      "source": "play_by_play_realizer_v1",
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20261007_CLE@CHW.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20261007

20261007_LAD@ATL

away

Tyler Glasnow

True

5.1

4.2

-2

-1

4/1

0/5

5/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

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      "games_started": null,
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      "role_avg_IP": 5.692,
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      "last_start_IP": 6.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
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      "regression_flag": "neutral",
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      "hard_hit_percent": 38.4,
      "whiff_percent": 32.1
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    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": null,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 6.0,
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      "season_ERA": 3.527,
      "season_WHIP": 0.946,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
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        "last_10": 0.35,
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      "effective_weights": {
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      "shrinkage": {
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      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "607192",
      "report_date": "20261007",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 13,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
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            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 42.0,
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          "per_game": {
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            "BF": 23.8,
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          },
          "rates": {
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            "H_per_IP": 0.64773,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.40909,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.43182,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06818
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 56.0,
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            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 32.0,
            "BB": 21.0,
            "SO": 76.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
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            "Pitches": 858.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
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            "H": 3.2,
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            "SO": 7.6,
            "HR": 0.5,
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            "Pitches": 85.8
          },
          "rates": {
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            "H_per_IP": 0.57143,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.375,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.35714,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08929
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        },
        "season": {
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            "H": 45.0,
            "BB": 25.0,
            "SO": 98.0,
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          "per_game": {
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            "Pitches": 88.3846
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            "H_per_IP": 0.60811,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33784,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.32432,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09459
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
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        "predicted_H": 4.204,
        "predicted_BB": 2.242,
        "predicted_SO": 7.388,
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "final": 4.0432,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
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          "final": 1.0987,
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
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        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
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        "ER": 21,
        "H": 32,
        "BB": 21,
        "SO": 76,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 3.375,
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              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": -4.0,
              "percent_delta": -1.0,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          }
        },
        {
          "index": 10,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          }
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": -4.0,
            "percent_delta": -1.0,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.3333,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.9,
            "percent_delta": -0.15,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.1667,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 5,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 4,
          "better_metrics": 2,
          "worse_metrics": 3,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": -4.0,
            "percent_delta": -1.0,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2008,
        "offense_edge": 0.1022,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.021,
        "defense_strength": 0.2112,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1609,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0135,
        "run_prevention": 0.9722,
        "strikeout": 1.0043
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "607192",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "607192",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 240.0,
            "k_percent": 34.0,
            "bb_percent": 8.7,
            "woba": 0.245,
            "xwoba": 0.263,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.9446,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9414,
            "whiff_percent": 32.1,
            "swing_percent": 42.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.7516,
            "command_and_miss": 1.135,
            "regression_edge": -0.5143,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.4,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2889,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0714,
            "whiff_edge": 0.9857,
            "bb_edge": 0.125,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0556
          },
          "quality_score": 0.6422,
          "sample_weight": 0.96,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9454,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.1031,
          "walk_factor": 0.9904,
          "homer_factor": 0.9846,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.018,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "607192",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9476,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9476,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9908,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9852,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 8.0,
            "factor": 1.099,
            "adjusted": 9
          }
        }
      },
      "club_form": "game.<side>_team.predicted_performance.team_form"
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "IP": 5.1,
      "H": 4,
      "R": 2,
      "ER": 2,
      "BB": 0,
      "SO": 5,
      "HR": 2,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 94,
      "source": "play_by_play_realizer_v1",
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +5."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20261007_LAD@ATL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20261007

20261007_LAD@ATL

home

Tyler Mahle

True

5.0

6.1

-2

6/3

2/1

4/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.8653846153846154,
      "WHIP": 1.2243589743589745,
      "IP": 156.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.571,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.2,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0461,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9961,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.988,
      "walk_factor": 0.966,
      "homer_factor": 0.9832,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.3,
      "bb_percent": 7.5,
      "woba": 0.311,
      "xwoba": 0.306,
      "barrel_percent": 6.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.1,
      "whiff_percent": 22.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 22,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "641816",
      "report_date": "20261007",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 31.0,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 25.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 121.0,
            "Pitches": 475.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 24.2,
            "Pitches": 95.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.3226,
            "WHIP": 0.9677,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.25806,
            "H_per_IP": 0.80645,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.16129,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.70968,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09677
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 61.1,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 49.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 54.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 238.0,
            "Pitches": 919.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.3,
            "R": 1.5,
            "H": 4.9,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 5.4,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 23.8,
            "Pitches": 91.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.9076,
            "WHIP": 0.962,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.21196,
            "H_per_IP": 0.79891,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.16304,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.88043,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09783
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 28,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 156.0,
            "ER": 67.0,
            "R": 70.0,
            "H": 144.0,
            "BB": 47.0,
            "SO": 143.0,
            "HR": 20.0,
            "BF": 642.0,
            "Pitches": 2497.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.3929,
            "R": 2.5,
            "H": 5.1429,
            "BB": 1.6786,
            "SO": 5.1071,
            "HR": 0.7143,
            "BF": 22.9286,
            "Pitches": 89.1786
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8654,
            "WHIP": 1.2244,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42949,
            "H_per_IP": 0.92308,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30128,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.91667,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12821
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.895,
        "predicted_H": 5.167,
        "predicted_BB": 1.328,
        "predicted_SO": 5.036,
        "predicted_HR": 0.669,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.8099,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0699
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.414,
      "form_weight": 0.586,
      "form_reliability": 0.8485,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.895,
          "final": 1.5245,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.167,
          "final": 5.0979,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.328,
          "final": 1.6062,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 5.036,
          "final": 3.3651,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.669,
          "final": 0.392,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.8099,
          "final": 2.8099,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0699,
          "final": 1.0699,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 61.1,
        "ER": 13,
        "H": 49,
        "BB": 10,
        "SO": 54,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 1.9076086956521738,
        "WHIP": 0.9619565217391304,
        "K9": 7.923913043478261,
        "HR9": 0.8804347826086956,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 8,
        "dominant_form": true,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-30T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.698170406671479,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty",
        "rates_per_inning": {
          "H": 0.8508,
          "BB": 0.2145,
          "SO": 0.7883,
          "HR": 0.1087
        },
        "source": "recent_role_blend",
        "tto_penalty": 1.0057,
        "role_avg_IP": 5.571,
        "recent_avg_IP": 6.2
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 1.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 28.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8485,
          "prior_weight": 0.1515
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "team_form_adjustment",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors",
        "factors": {
          "ip": 0.9927,
          "run_prevention": 1.0103,
          "strikeout": 0.9858
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "savant_pitcher_quality",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors",
        "factors": {
          "strikeout_factor": 0.988,
          "walk_factor": 0.966,
          "homer_factor": 0.9832,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9961,
          "quality_score": 0.0461
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "opposing_lineup_context",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, platoon split against his hand, batter-versus-pitcher history, weighted by plate appearances",
        "lineup_multipliers": {
          "H": 1.0136,
          "BB": 1.1197,
          "SO": 0.9381,
          "HR": 1.1573
        },
        "weights": {
          "H": 0.0,
          "BB": 0.15,
          "SO": 0.35,
          "HR": 0.0
        },
        "applied_multipliers": {
          "H": 1.0,
          "BB": 1.0171,
          "SO": 0.9779,
          "HR": 1.0
        },
        "earned_run_factor": 1.0027,
        "before": {
          "H": 4.687,
          "BB": 1.181,
          "SO": 4.237,
          "HR": 0.602,
          "ER": 1.79,
          "ERA": 2.977
        },
        "after": {
          "H": 4.687,
          "BB": 1.2012,
          "SO": 4.1434,
          "HR": 0.602,
          "ER": 1.7949,
          "ERA": 2.985
        },
        "by_hitter": [
          {
            "hitter": "Mookie Betts",
            "plate_appearances": 4.281,
            "stand": "R",
            "H_batter": 1.0378,
            "H_platoon": 0.9909,
            "H_bvp": 0.973,
            "BB_batter": 1.0085,
            "BB_platoon": 0.956,
            "BB_bvp": 1.0,
            "SO_batter": 0.5328,
            "SO_platoon": 1.0163,
            "SO_bvp": 1.0461,
            "HR_batter": 1.2763,
            "HR_platoon": 0.9915,
            "HR_bvp": 0.9471,
            "bvp_at_bats": 8.0,
            "combined": {
              "H": 1.0006,
              "BB": 0.9641,
              "SO": 0.5664,
              "HR": 1.1985
            }
          },
          {
            "hitter": "Freddie Freeman",
            "plate_appearances": 4.369,
            "stand": "L",
            "H_batter": 1.0916,
            "H_platoon": 0.9908,
            "H_bvp": 1.0492,
            "BB_batter": 1.1483,
            "BB_platoon": 1.0245,
            "BB_bvp": 1.0,
            "SO_batter": 0.7986,
            "SO_platoon": 0.9883,
            "SO_bvp": 0.9781,
            "HR_batter": 0.9186,
            "HR_platoon": 1.0112,
            "HR_bvp": 1.0582,
            "bvp_at_bats": 19.0,
            "combined": {
              "H": 1.1348,
              "BB": 1.1764,
              "SO": 0.772,
              "HR": 0.9829
            }
          },
          {
            "hitter": "Will Smith",
            "plate_appearances": 4.128,
            "stand": "R",
            "H_batter": 0.9987,
            "H_platoon": 0.9909,
            "H_bvp": 1.0153,
            "BB_batter": 1.2029,
            "BB_platoon": 0.956,
            "BB_bvp": 1.0,
            "SO_batter": 0.8205,
            "SO_platoon": 1.0163,
            "SO_bvp": 0.9389,
            "HR_batter": 1.0789,
            "HR_platoon": 0.9915,
            "HR_bvp": 1.1076,
            "bvp_at_bats": 10.0,
            "combined": {
              "H": 1.0048,
              "BB": 1.15,
              "SO": 0.7829,
              "HR": 1.1848
            }
          },
          {
            "hitter": "Shohei Ohtani",
            "plate_appearances": 4.202,
            "stand": "L",
            "H_batter": 1.0312,
            "H_platoon": 0.9908,
            "H_bvp": 0.9591,
            "BB_batter": 1.4302,
            "BB_platoon": 1.0245,
            "BB_bvp": 1.0,
            "SO_batter": 1.1019,
            "SO_platoon": 0.9883,
            "SO_bvp": 1.0232,
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      "club_form": "game.<side>_team.predicted_performance.team_form"
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  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
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    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20261007

20261007_MIL@SD

away

Robert Gasser

True

3.2

4.0

-1

3/3

1/1

4/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 3.8689024390243905,
      "WHIP": 1.1890243902439024,
      "IP": 109.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 21,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.2,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.4,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0263,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0022,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9857,
      "walk_factor": 0.964,
      "homer_factor": 0.9891,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.3,
      "bb_percent": 7.4,
      "woba": 0.309,
      "xwoba": 0.317,
      "barrel_percent": 7.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.0,
      "whiff_percent": 22.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": null,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 21.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8077,
        "prior_weight": 0.1923
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "688107",
      "report_date": "20261007",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 21,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.0,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 6.0,
            "H": 13.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 25.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 105.0,
            "Pitches": 442.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.2,
            "H": 2.6,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 21.0,
            "Pitches": 88.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.6667,
            "WHIP": 0.8519,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.18519,
            "H_per_IP": 0.48148,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37037,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.92593,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07407
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 52.0,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 42.0,
            "BB": 21.0,
            "SO": 51.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 221.0,
            "Pitches": 873.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.7,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 4.2,
            "BB": 2.1,
            "SO": 5.1,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 22.1,
            "Pitches": 87.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.9423,
            "WHIP": 1.2115,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.32692,
            "H_per_IP": 0.80769,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.40385,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.98077,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07692
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 21,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 109.1,
            "ER": 47.0,
            "R": 49.0,
            "H": 95.0,
            "BB": 35.0,
            "SO": 103.0,
            "HR": 15.0,
            "BF": 463.0,
            "Pitches": 1817.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.2381,
            "R": 2.3333,
            "H": 4.5238,
            "BB": 1.6667,
            "SO": 4.9048,
            "HR": 0.7143,
            "BF": 22.0476,
            "Pitches": 86.5238
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8689,
            "WHIP": 1.189,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42988,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8689,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.32012,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.94207,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1372
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.749,
        "predicted_H": 3.91,
        "predicted_BB": 1.993,
        "predicted_SO": 5.043,
        "predicted_HR": 0.53,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.9518,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1068
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
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      "form_reliability": 0.8077,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 21.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8077,
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      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 1.749,
          "final": 3.151,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.91,
          "final": 3.9488,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.993,
          "final": 1.5648,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.043,
          "final": 5.0245,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.53,
          "final": 0.3014,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.9518,
          "final": 2.9518,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1068,
          "final": 1.1068,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 52.0,
        "ER": 17,
        "H": 42,
        "BB": 21,
        "SO": 51,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 2.9423076923076925,
        "WHIP": 1.2115384615384617,
        "K9": 8.826923076923078,
        "HR9": 0.6923076923076924,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-25T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8208135922902081,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty",
        "rates_per_inning": {
          "H": 0.6312,
          "BB": 0.3491,
          "SO": 0.9286,
          "HR": 0.1021
        },
        "source": "recent_role_blend",
        "tto_penalty": 1.0027,
        "role_avg_IP": 5.2,
        "recent_avg_IP": 5.4
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 5.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 21.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8077,
          "prior_weight": 0.1923
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      },
      {
        "step": "team_form_adjustment",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors",
        "factors": {
          "ip": 1.0133,
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          "strikeout": 1.0063
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      },
      {
        "step": "savant_pitcher_quality",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors",
        "factors": {
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9857,
          "walk_factor": 0.964,
          "homer_factor": 0.9891,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0022,
          "quality_score": -0.0263
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      },
      {
        "step": "opposing_lineup_context",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, platoon split against his hand, batter-versus-pitcher history, weighted by plate appearances",
        "lineup_multipliers": {
          "H": 1.0428,
          "BB": 1.0569,
          "SO": 0.9836,
          "HR": 1.0295
        },
        "weights": {
          "H": 0.0,
          "BB": 0.15,
          "SO": 0.35,
          "HR": 0.0
        },
        "applied_multipliers": {
          "H": 1.0,
          "BB": 1.0083,
          "SO": 0.9942,
          "HR": 1.0
        },
        "earned_run_factor": 1.0023,
        "before": {
          "H": 2.972,
          "BB": 1.644,
          "SO": 4.529,
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          "ER": 1.359,
          "ERA": 2.491
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        "after": {
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          "SO": 4.5027,
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          "ER": 1.3622,
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        "by_hitter": [
          {
            "hitter": "Fernando Tatis Jr.",
            "plate_appearances": 4.476,
            "stand": "R",
            "H_batter": 1.0931,
            "H_platoon": 1.0123,
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            "HR_batter": 1.1329,
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              "H": 1.1065,
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              "SO": 0.8367,
              "HR": 1.1459
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          },
          {
            "hitter": "Jackson Merrill",
            "plate_appearances": 4.425,
            "stand": "L",
            "H_batter": 1.0484,
            "H_platoon": 1.0338,
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            "HR_batter": 1.1824,
            "HR_platoon": 0.9589,
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            "combined": {
              "H": 1.0838,
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              "SO": 1.14,
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          },
          {
            "hitter": "Manny Machado",
            "plate_appearances": 4.184,
            "stand": "R",
            "H_batter": 0.9342,
            "H_platoon": 1.0123,
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            "combined": {
              "H": 0.9457,
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          },
          {
            "hitter": "Ty France",
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            "H_batter": 1.0992,
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            "HR_batter": 1.2181,
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          },
          {
            "hitter": "Austin Hays",
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          },
          {
            "hitter": "Xander Bogaerts",
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          },
          {
            "hitter": "Luis Campusano",
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          },
          {
            "hitter": "Jake Cronenworth",
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              "H": 0.9979,
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          },
          {
            "hitter": "Samad Taylor",
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              "H": 1.0796,
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          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "step": "kpi_run_environment",
        "description": "KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale",
        "applied": true,
        "kpi_staff_exposure": {
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          "batters_faced": 19.349
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        "player_attribution": {
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          },
          "away_runs": {
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          "home_win": {
            "model_delta": 0.0152,
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      },
      {
        "step": "market_blend",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Starter continuous line blended with his own props: model x (market/model) ** w; integer line stays reconciled to the club score",
        "stats_blended": {
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            "books": 2,
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              {
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            ]
          },
          "H": {
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            "books": 2,
            "props": [
              {
                "market": "pitcher_hits_allowed",
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          },
          "OUTS": {
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            "props": [
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                "market": "pitcher_outs",
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          },
          "SO": {
            "model": 4.5027,
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            "props": [
              {
                "market": "pitcher_strikeouts",
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                "books": 6,
                "market_p_over": 0.4738,
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            ]
          }
        },
        "expected_before": {
          "SO": 4.5027,
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          "IP": 4.911,
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        "expected_after": {
          "SO": 3.3005,
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          "IP": 3.7437,
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        "line": {
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          "SO": 5,
          "HR": 0
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      },
      {
        "step": "play_by_play_realization",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play",
        "before": {
          "IP": 5.1,
          "H": 4,
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      "club_form": "game.<side>_team.predicted_performance.team_form"
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  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
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    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20261007

20261007_MIL@SD

home

Walker Buehler

True

3.2

3.0

-2

4/3

3/2

4/0

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

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    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
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        },
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        "season": {
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      "blend_segments": {},
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-26T00:00:00"
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        "rates_per_inning": {
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      {
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        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -3.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.5,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1939,
        "offense_edge": -0.0064,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1449,
        "defense_strength": 0.0671,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1759,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9885,
        "run_prevention": 1.0262,
        "strikeout": 0.9826
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "621111",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "621111",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 583.0,
            "k_percent": 20.1,
            "bb_percent": 8.8,
            "woba": 0.329,
            "xwoba": 0.317,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.722,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.112,
            "whiff_percent": 19.5,
            "swing_percent": 45.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.169,
            "command_and_miss": -0.3936,
            "regression_edge": 0.3429,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.1429,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2667,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.8143,
            "bb_edge": 0.1,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0012
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1628,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0138,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.956,
          "walk_factor": 0.992,
          "homer_factor": 1.0302,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.012,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "621111",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0138,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0138,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.992,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0302,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.956,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      },
      "club_form": "game.<side>_team.predicted_performance.team_form"
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "IP": 3.2,
      "H": 4,
      "R": 3,
      "ER": 3,
      "BB": 3,
      "SO": 4,
      "HR": 0,
      "BF": 18,
      "Pitches": 75,
      "source": "play_by_play_realizer_v1",
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20261007_MIL@SD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20261007

20261007_TB@NYY

away

Nick Martinez

True

4.1

3.2

-2

4/5

2/1

4/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 3.1,
      "WHIP": 1.0944444444444446,
      "IP": 180.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 31,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.806,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.267,
      "last_start_IP": 2.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0517,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0044,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9154,
      "walk_factor": 0.888,
      "homer_factor": 0.96,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 15.1,
      "bb_percent": 3.6,
      "woba": 0.295,
      "xwoba": 0.307,
      "barrel_percent": 6.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 32.9,
      "whiff_percent": 17.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": null,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 180.0,
      "season_ERA": 3.1,
      "season_WHIP": 1.094,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "607259",
      "report_date": "20261007",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 31,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.1,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 18.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 104.0,
            "Pitches": 374.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 20.8,
            "Pitches": 74.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7595,
            "WHIP": 1.0633,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.41772,
            "H_per_IP": 0.91139,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.1519,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.68354,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1519
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 56.2,
            "ER": 24.0,
            "R": 24.0,
            "H": 55.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 40.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 225.0,
            "Pitches": 799.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 5.5,
            "BB": 0.6,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 22.5,
            "Pitches": 79.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8118,
            "WHIP": 1.0765,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42353,
            "H_per_IP": 0.97059,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.10588,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.70588,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12353
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 31,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 180.0,
            "ER": 62.0,
            "R": 62.0,
            "H": 171.0,
            "BB": 26.0,
            "SO": 109.0,
            "HR": 22.0,
            "BF": 722.0,
            "Pitches": 2524.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 5.5161,
            "BB": 0.8387,
            "SO": 3.5161,
            "HR": 0.7097,
            "BF": 23.2903,
            "Pitches": 81.4194
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1,
            "WHIP": 1.0944,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.34444,
            "H_per_IP": 0.95,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.14444,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.60556,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12222
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.327,
        "predicted_H": 5.239,
        "predicted_BB": 0.933,
        "predicted_SO": 3.941,
        "predicted_HR": 0.763,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.7818,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1146
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4087,
      "form_weight": 0.5913,
      "form_reliability": 0.8611,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.327,
          "final": 3.0107,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 5.239,
          "final": 6.3674,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.933,
          "final": 1.3691,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 3.941,
          "final": 4.7825,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.763,
          "final": 1.2685,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.7818,
          "final": 3.7818,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1146,
          "final": 1.1146,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 56.2,
        "ER": 24,
        "H": 55,
        "BB": 6,
        "SO": 40,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 3.811764705882353,
        "WHIP": 1.076470588235294,
        "K9": 6.352941176470589,
        "HR9": 1.111764705882353,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-27T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9152508094847782,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty",
        "rates_per_inning": {
          "H": 0.9271,
          "BB": 0.1489,
          "SO": 0.6519,
          "HR": 0.1398
        },
        "source": "recent_role_blend",
        "tto_penalty": 1.0027,
        "role_avg_IP": 5.806,
        "recent_avg_IP": 5.267
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 8.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 31.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8611,
          "prior_weight": 0.1389
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "team_form_adjustment",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors",
        "factors": {
          "ip": 1.0019,
          "run_prevention": 0.9928,
          "strikeout": 0.9976
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "savant_pitcher_quality",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors",
        "factors": {
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9154,
          "walk_factor": 0.888,
          "homer_factor": 0.96,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0044,
          "quality_score": -0.0517
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "opposing_lineup_context",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, platoon split against his hand, batter-versus-pitcher history, weighted by plate appearances",
        "lineup_multipliers": {
          "H": 1.0082,
          "BB": 1.0515,
          "SO": 1.0296,
          "HR": 1.1706
        },
        "weights": {
          "H": 0.0,
          "BB": 0.15,
          "SO": 0.35,
          "HR": 0.0
        },
        "applied_multipliers": {
          "H": 1.0,
          "BB": 1.0076,
          "SO": 1.0103,
          "HR": 1.0
        },
        "earned_run_factor": 1.0008,
        "before": {
          "H": 4.46,
          "BB": 0.716,
          "SO": 3.152,
          "HR": 0.675,
          "ER": 1.872,
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        },
        "after": {
          "H": 4.46,
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          "SO": 3.1845,
          "HR": 0.675,
          "ER": 1.8735,
          "ERA": 3.473
        },
        "by_hitter": [
          {
            "hitter": "Trent Grisham",
            "plate_appearances": 4.113,
            "stand": "L",
            "H_batter": 0.9267,
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            "H_bvp": 1.0713,
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            "SO_batter": 0.857,
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            "HR_batter": 1.1047,
            "HR_platoon": 1.0112,
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            "bvp_at_bats": 6.0,
            "combined": {
              "H": 0.9836,
              "BB": 1.3416,
              "SO": 0.8059,
              "HR": 1.0629
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          },
          {
            "hitter": "Ben Rice",
            "plate_appearances": 4.202,
            "stand": "L",
            "H_batter": 1.0348,
            "H_platoon": 0.9908,
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            "HR_batter": 1.831,
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            "combined": {
              "H": 1.0634,
              "BB": 1.4639,
              "SO": 1.0125,
              "HR": 1.7384
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          },
          {
            "hitter": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.",
            "plate_appearances": 4.323,
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            "H_batter": 1.1006,
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            "HR_batter": 1.5678,
            "HR_platoon": 1.0112,
            "HR_bvp": 0.9429,
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            "combined": {
              "H": 1.08,
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              "SO": 0.8448,
              "HR": 1.4948
            }
          },
          {
            "hitter": "Cody Bellinger",
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            "BB_batter": 1.1431,
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            "HR_batter": 1.0266,
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            "combined": {
              "H": 1.0513,
              "BB": 1.1711,
              "SO": 0.6841,
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          },
          {
            "hitter": "George Lombard Jr.",
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            "stand": "R",
            "H_batter": 1.0082,
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            "HR_batter": 1.1208,
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            "bvp_at_bats": null,
            "combined": {
              "H": 0.999,
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              "SO": 1.1459,
              "HR": 1.1113
            }
          },
          {
            "hitter": "Austin Wells",
            "plate_appearances": 3.432,
            "stand": "L",
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            "H_platoon": 0.9908,
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            "BB_bvp": 1.0,
            "SO_batter": 1.1593,
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            "HR_batter": 1.0912,
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            "combined": {
              "H": 0.9273,
              "BB": 1.3016,
              "SO": 1.1371,
              "HR": 1.2689
            }
          },
          {
            "hitter": "Anthony Volpe",
            "plate_appearances": 3.916,
            "stand": "R",
            "H_batter": 1.0027,
            "H_platoon": 0.9909,
            "H_bvp": 0.9667,
            "BB_batter": 1.1152,
            "BB_platoon": 0.956,
            "BB_bvp": 1.0,
            "SO_batter": 1.0208,
            "SO_platoon": 1.0163,
            "SO_bvp": 1.0253,
            "HR_batter": 0.6424,
            "HR_platoon": 0.9915,
            "HR_bvp": 0.9667,
            "bvp_at_bats": 5.0,
            "combined": {
              "H": 0.9605,
              "BB": 1.0661,
              "SO": 1.0637,
              "HR": 0.6157
            }
          },
          {
            "hitter": "Spencer Jones",
            "plate_appearances": 3.944,
            "stand": "L",
            "H_batter": 0.9972,
            "H_platoon": 0.9908,
            "H_bvp": 1.0,
            "BB_batter": 0.9706,
            "BB_platoon": 1.0245,
            "BB_bvp": 1.0,
            "SO_batter": 1.5604,
            "SO_platoon": 0.9883,
            "SO_bvp": 1.0,
            "HR_batter": 1.1087,
            "HR_platoon": 1.0112,
            "HR_bvp": 1.0,
            "bvp_at_bats": null,
            "combined": {
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      },
      "club_form": "game.<side>_team.predicted_performance.team_form"
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      "HR": 0,
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      "source": "play_by_play_realizer_v1",
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      "predicted_ER": 2
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  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20261007_TB@NYY.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20261007

20261007_TB@NYY

home

Max Fried

True

5.1

5.2

4/7

3/0

7/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "WHIP": 0.9775280898876404,
      "IP": 118.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 21,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.651,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.733,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
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      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.927,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0097,
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      "homer_factor": 0.8118,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 24.0,
      "bb_percent": 7.6,
      "woba": 0.245,
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      "barrel_percent": 2.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 29.8,
      "whiff_percent": 25.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 9,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 6.0,
      "season_IP": 118.2,
      "season_ERA": 2.73,
      "season_WHIP": 0.978,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
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          },
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        ]
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        "applied": true,
        "kpi_staff_exposure": {
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        "player_attribution": {
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "step": "market_blend",
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        "stats_blended": {
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            "props": [
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            "props": [
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          "OUTS": {
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            "props": [
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                "market": "pitcher_outs",
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              {
                "market": "pitcher_outs",
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            "props": [
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                "market": "pitcher_strikeouts",
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          },
          "BB": {
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            "props": [
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                "market": "pitcher_walks",
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        },
        "expected_before": {
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        "expected_after": {
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        "line": {
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      },
      {
        "step": "play_by_play_realization",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play",
        "before": {
          "IP": 6.0,
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          "predicted_HR": {
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      },
      "club_form": "game.<side>_team.predicted_performance.team_form"
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "SO": 7,
      "HR": 0,
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      "source": "play_by_play_realizer_v1",
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      "predicted_ER": 2
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  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20261007_TB@NYY.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20261008

20261008_CLE@CHW

away

Parker Messick

True

5.0

2.1

-8

-1

5/2

3/4

4/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

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      "role_avg_IP": 5.778,
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      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
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    "savant": {
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      "hard_hit_percent": 34.3,
      "whiff_percent": 25.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 81,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 6.0,
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      "season_ERA": 2.596,
      "season_WHIP": 1.07,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
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      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 33.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "800048",
      "report_date": "20261008",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 33,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
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          "totals": {
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            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 25.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 26.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 102.0,
            "Pitches": 428.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "ER": 1.6,
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            "H": 5.0,
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            "SO": 5.2,
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            "BF": 20.4,
            "Pitches": 85.6
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.3099,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33803,
            "H_per_IP": 1.05634,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25352,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.09859,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08451
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 54.0,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 49.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 63.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 223.0,
            "Pitches": 930.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 4.9,
            "BB": 1.3,
            "SO": 6.3,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 22.3,
            "Pitches": 93.0
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.1481,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.2963,
            "H_per_IP": 0.90741,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.24074,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.16667,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09259
          }
        },
        "season": {
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          "totals": {
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            "R": 59.0,
            "H": 153.0,
            "BB": 51.0,
            "SO": 199.0,
            "HR": 18.0,
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            "Pitches": 3035.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "ER": 1.6667,
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            "BB": 1.5455,
            "SO": 6.0303,
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            "BF": 23.1818,
            "Pitches": 91.9697
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.0699,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.28846,
            "H_per_IP": 0.80245,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26748,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.04371,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09441
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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        "predicted_ER": 1.773,
        "predicted_H": 4.997,
        "predicted_BB": 1.403,
        "predicted_SO": 5.678,
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        "predicted_ERA": 3.0585,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2263
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4056,
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      "form_reliability": 0.8684,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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        "data_weight": 0.8684,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 1.773,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "final": 4.5926,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "final": 1.6451,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.506,
          "final": 0.3008,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.0585,
          "final": 3.0585,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2263,
          "final": 1.2263,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
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            "boosted_metrics": 4,
            "deboosted_metrics": 2,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 6,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 2.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": -2.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.3333,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          }
        },
        {
          "index": 10,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          }
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 2.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.25,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.1667,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.2,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 6,
          "boosted_metrics": 4,
          "deboosted_metrics": 2,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 6,
          "biggest_boost": {
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            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 2.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.1667,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0062,
        "offense_edge": -0.0673,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0675,
        "defense_strength": 0.0898,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0096,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0002,
        "run_prevention": 1.0015,
        "strikeout": 0.9948
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "800048",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "800048",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 705.0,
            "k_percent": 25.8,
            "bb_percent": 6.6,
            "woba": 0.274,
            "xwoba": 0.275,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 34.3,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.3542,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.484,
            "whiff_percent": 25.5,
            "swing_percent": 48.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.7912,
            "command_and_miss": 0.3829,
            "regression_edge": -0.0286,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.0571,
            "barrel_edge": 0.4889,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.5143,
            "whiff_edge": 0.0429,
            "bb_edge": 0.65,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0142
          },
          "quality_score": 0.5409,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.954,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0229,
          "walk_factor": 0.948,
          "homer_factor": 0.9086,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.001,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "800048",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.954,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.954,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.948,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9086,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0229,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      },
      "club_form": "game.<side>_team.predicted_performance.team_form"
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "IP": 5.0,
      "H": 5,
      "R": 4,
      "ER": 3,
      "BB": 3,
      "SO": 4,
      "HR": 1,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 97,
      "source": "play_by_play_realizer_v1",
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 3
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -8 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20261008_CLE@CHW.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20261008

20261008_CLE@CHW

home

Hagen Smith

True

2.2

0.2

-6

1/0

1/3

3/0

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "WHIP": 0.9902912621359222,
      "IP": 34.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 20,
      "role_avg_IP": 2.556,
      "recent_avg_IP": 2.556,
      "last_start_IP": 2.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.4816,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9591,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0674,
      "walk_factor": 1.0477,
      "homer_factor": 0.921,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 37.3,
      "bb_percent": 14.5,
      "woba": 0.211,
      "xwoba": 0.243,
      "barrel_percent": 1.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.0,
      "whiff_percent": 36.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 105,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.0,
      "season_IP": 34.1,
      "season_ERA": 1.049,
      "season_WHIP": 0.99,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 7.09,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5864,
        "prior_weight": 0.4136
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "696146",
      "report_date": "20261008",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 20,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 9.0,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 9.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 38.0,
            "Pitches": 161.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.2,
            "ER": 0.4,
            "R": 0.4,
            "H": 1.0,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 1.8,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 7.6,
            "Pitches": 32.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.0,
            "WHIP": 1.2222,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.22222,
            "H_per_IP": 0.55556,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.66667,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 16.1,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 7.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 67.0,
            "Pitches": 276.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.2,
            "ER": 0.4,
            "R": 0.4,
            "H": 0.7,
            "BB": 1.1,
            "SO": 2.1,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 6.7,
            "Pitches": 27.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.2041,
            "WHIP": 1.102,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.2449,
            "H_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.67347,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.28571,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 20,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 34.1,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 13.0,
            "BB": 21.0,
            "SO": 47.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 136.0,
            "Pitches": 575.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.2,
            "ER": 0.2,
            "R": 0.2,
            "H": 0.65,
            "BB": 1.05,
            "SO": 2.35,
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            "BF": 6.8,
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          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.0485,
            "WHIP": 0.9903,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.1165,
            "H_per_IP": 0.37864,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.61165,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.36893,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 3.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.02,
        "predicted_H": 2.09,
        "predicted_BB": 1.654,
        "predicted_SO": 3.273,
        "predicted_HR": 0.186,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.0147,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2294
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
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      "form_reliability": 0.5864,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5864,
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      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.0,
          "final": 4.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.02,
          "final": 1.5343,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.09,
          "final": 2.5675,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "form": 1.654,
          "final": 1.3108,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.273,
          "final": 3.1297,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.186,
          "final": 0.0884,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.0147,
          "final": 3.0147,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2294,
          "final": 1.2294,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
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        "ER": 4,
        "H": 7,
        "BB": 11,
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        "HR": 0,
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        "K9": 11.57142857142857,
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        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-10-07T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8549807438135085,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty",
        "rates_per_inning": {
          "H": 0.8625,
          "BB": 0.3834,
          "SO": 0.9631,
          "HR": 0.1088
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        "source": "recent_role_blend",
        "tto_penalty": 0.9965,
        "role_avg_IP": 2.556,
        "recent_avg_IP": 2.556
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 7.09,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.5864,
          "prior_weight": 0.4136
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "team_form_adjustment",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors",
        "factors": {
          "ip": 1.0027,
          "run_prevention": 0.9886,
          "strikeout": 1.0052
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "savant_pitcher_quality",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors",
        "factors": {
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0674,
          "walk_factor": 1.0477,
          "homer_factor": 0.921,
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          "quality_score": 0.4816
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      },
      {
        "step": "opposing_lineup_context",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, platoon split against his hand, batter-versus-pitcher history, weighted by plate appearances",
        "lineup_multipliers": {
          "H": 1.0373,
          "BB": 1.0065,
          "SO": 0.8222,
          "HR": 0.9144
        },
        "weights": {
          "H": 0.0,
          "BB": 0.15,
          "SO": 0.35,
          "HR": 0.0
        },
        "applied_multipliers": {
          "H": 1.0,
          "BB": 1.001,
          "SO": 0.9338,
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        },
        "earned_run_factor": 1.0003,
        "before": {
          "H": 3.357,
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        "after": {
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        "by_hitter": [
          {
            "hitter": "Steven Kwan",
            "plate_appearances": 4.393,
            "stand": "L",
            "H_batter": 1.0528,
            "H_platoon": 1.0333,
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            "HR_batter": 0.4016,
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            "bvp_at_bats": null,
            "combined": {
              "H": 1.0879,
              "BB": 1.3048,
              "SO": 0.4797,
              "HR": 0.3859
            }
          },
          {
            "hitter": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez",
            "plate_appearances": 4.453,
            "stand": "R",
            "H_batter": 0.9647,
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            "SO_batter": 0.6234,
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            "HR_batter": 0.8131,
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            "bvp_at_bats": null,
            "combined": {
              "H": 0.9763,
              "BB": 1.3298,
              "SO": 0.6099,
              "HR": 0.8225
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          },
          {
            "hitter": "Chase DeLauter",
            "plate_appearances": 4.268,
            "stand": "L",
            "H_batter": 1.0803,
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            "BB_batter": 1.1647,
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            "HR_batter": 0.9625,
            "HR_platoon": 0.9608,
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            "bvp_at_bats": null,
            "combined": {
              "H": 1.1163,
              "BB": 1.06,
              "SO": 0.7142,
              "HR": 0.9248
            }
          },
          {
            "hitter": "Jo Adell",
            "plate_appearances": 4.258,
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    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20261010

20261010_CHW@CLE

away

Sean Burke

True

4.1

5.0

-3

7/4

3/0

5/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.3688073394495412,
      "WHIP": 1.1669724770642202,
      "IP": 181.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 34,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.226,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.467,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1206,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9898,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0229,
      "walk_factor": 0.99,
      "homer_factor": 1.0144,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 25.8,
      "bb_percent": 8.7,
      "woba": 0.302,
      "xwoba": 0.3,
      "barrel_percent": 8.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.8,
      "whiff_percent": 25.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 90,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 34.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8718,
        "prior_weight": 0.1282
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "680732",
      "report_date": "20261010",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 34,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.2,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 30.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 101.0,
            "Pitches": 435.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.2,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 3.6,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 6.0,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 20.2,
            "Pitches": 87.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.1039,
            "WHIP": 0.974,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.23377,
            "H_per_IP": 0.7013,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.27273,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.16883,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15584
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 46.0,
            "ER": 23.0,
            "R": 24.0,
            "H": 41.0,
            "BB": 24.0,
            "SO": 47.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 200.0,
            "Pitches": 849.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.3,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 4.1,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 4.7,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 20.0,
            "Pitches": 84.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5,
            "WHIP": 1.413,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8913,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.52174,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.02174,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15217
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 34,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 181.2,
            "ER": 68.0,
            "R": 71.0,
            "H": 149.0,
            "BB": 63.0,
            "SO": 199.0,
            "HR": 22.0,
            "BF": 750.0,
            "Pitches": 3033.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0882,
            "H": 4.3824,
            "BB": 1.8529,
            "SO": 5.8529,
            "HR": 0.6471,
            "BF": 22.0588,
            "Pitches": 89.2059
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.3688,
            "WHIP": 1.167,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.37431,
            "H_per_IP": 0.82018,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34679,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.09541,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1211
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.861,
        "predicted_H": 4.047,
        "predicted_BB": 1.862,
        "predicted_SO": 5.358,
        "predicted_HR": 0.732,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.3797,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1921
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4042,
      "form_weight": 0.5958,
      "form_reliability": 0.8718,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 34.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8718,
        "prior_weight": 0.1282
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.861,
          "final": 2.3213,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.047,
          "final": 4.4322,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.862,
          "final": 1.1094,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 5.358,
          "final": 4.405,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.732,
          "final": 0.8403,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.3797,
          "final": 3.3797,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1921,
          "final": 1.1921,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 46.0,
        "ER": 23,
        "H": 41,
        "BB": 24,
        "SO": 47,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 4.5,
        "WHIP": 1.4130434782608696,
        "K9": 9.195652173913043,
        "HR9": 1.3695652173913044,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-10-05T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.000251287194822,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty",
        "rates_per_inning": {
          "H": 0.9389,
          "BB": 0.4126,
          "SO": 1.1913,
          "HR": 0.1571
        },
        "source": "recent_role_blend",
        "tto_penalty": 1.001,
        "role_avg_IP": 5.226,
        "recent_avg_IP": 4.467
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 34.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8718,
          "prior_weight": 0.1282
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "team_form_adjustment",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors",
        "factors": {
          "ip": 1.0027,
          "run_prevention": 0.9885,
          "strikeout": 1.0052
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "savant_pitcher_quality",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors",
        "factors": {
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0229,
          "walk_factor": 0.99,
          "homer_factor": 1.0144,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9898,
          "quality_score": 0.1206
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "opposing_lineup_context",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, platoon split against his hand, batter-versus-pitcher history, weighted by plate appearances",
        "lineup_multipliers": {
          "H": 0.9982,
          "BB": 1.0548,
          "SO": 0.8252,
          "HR": 0.9055
        },
        "weights": {
          "H": 0.0,
          "BB": 0.15,
          "SO": 0.35,
          "HR": 0.0
        },
        "applied_multipliers": {
          "H": 1.0,
          "BB": 1.008,
          "SO": 0.935,
          "HR": 1.0
        },
        "earned_run_factor": 1.0019,
        "before": {
          "H": 4.216,
          "BB": 1.853,
          "SO": 5.441,
          "HR": 0.706,
          "ER": 2.187,
          "ERA": 4.321
        },
        "after": {
          "H": 4.216,
          "BB": 1.8678,
          "SO": 5.0873,
          "HR": 0.706,
          "ER": 2.1911,
          "ERA": 4.329
        },
        "by_hitter": [
          {
            "hitter": "Steven Kwan",
            "plate_appearances": 4.365,
            "stand": "L",
            "H_batter": 1.0522,
            "H_platoon": 0.9903,
            "H_bvp": 1.0,
            "BB_batter": 1.4546,
            "BB_platoon": 1.0257,
            "BB_bvp": 1.0,
            "SO_batter": 0.4567,
            "SO_platoon": 0.9885,
            "SO_bvp": 1.0,
            "HR_batter": 0.3989,
            "HR_platoon": 1.0106,
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            "bvp_at_bats": null,
            "combined": {
              "H": 1.042,
              "BB": 1.492,
              "SO": 0.4514,
              "HR": 0.4031
            }
          },
          {
            "hitter": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez",
            "plate_appearances": 4.481,
            "stand": "L",
            "H_batter": 0.9687,
            "H_platoon": 0.9903,
            "H_bvp": 1.0,
            "BB_batter": 1.2451,
            "BB_platoon": 1.0257,
            "BB_bvp": 1.0,
            "SO_batter": 0.6183,
            "SO_platoon": 0.9885,
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            "HR_batter": 0.8487,
            "HR_platoon": 1.0106,
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            "bvp_at_bats": null,
            "combined": {
              "H": 0.9593,
              "BB": 1.2771,
              "SO": 0.6112,
              "HR": 0.8577
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          },
          {
            "hitter": "Chase DeLauter",
            "plate_appearances": 4.268,
            "stand": "L",
            "H_batter": 1.0795,
            "H_platoon": 0.9903,
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            "BB_batter": 1.1728,
            "BB_platoon": 1.0257,
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            "SO_batter": 0.6794,
            "SO_platoon": 0.9885,
            "SO_bvp": 1.0,
            "HR_batter": 0.9568,
            "HR_platoon": 1.0106,
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            "bvp_at_bats": null,
            "combined": {
              "H": 1.069,
              "BB": 1.2029,
              "SO": 0.6716,
              "HR": 0.9669
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          },
          {
            "hitter": "Jo Adell",
            "plate_appearances": 4.287,
            "stand": "R",
            "H_batter": 1.003,
            "H_platoon": 0.9929,
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            "BB_batter": 0.6883,
            "BB_platoon": 0.9515,
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            "SO_batter": 1.0849,
            "SO_platoon": 1.0163,
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            "HR_batter": 1.0863,
            "HR_platoon": 0.9986,
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            "bvp_at_bats": null,
            "combined": {
              "H": 0.9959,
              "BB": 0.6549,
              "SO": 1.1026,
              "HR": 1.0848
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          },
          {
            "hitter": "Nathaniel Lowe",
            "plate_appearances": 3.874,
            "stand": "L",
            "H_batter": 1.005,
            "H_platoon": 0.9903,
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            "BB_batter": 1.0538,
            "BB_platoon": 1.0257,
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            "SO_batter": 1.02,
            "SO_platoon": 0.9885,
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            "HR_batter": 1.138,
            "HR_platoon": 1.0106,
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            "bvp_at_bats": null,
            "combined": {
              "H": 0.9953,
              "BB": 1.0809,
              "SO": 1.0083,
              "HR": 1.1501
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          },
          {
            "hitter": "Travis Bazzana",
            "plate_appearances": 3.88,
            "stand": "L",
            "H_batter": 0.975,
            "H_platoon": 0.9903,
            "H_bvp": 1.0,
            "BB_batter": 1.2063,
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            "SO_batter": 0.927,
            "SO_platoon": 0.9885,
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            "HR_batter": 0.9613,
            "HR_platoon": 1.0106,
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            "bvp_at_bats": 9.0,
            "combined": {
              "H": 0.9655,
              "BB": 1.2373,
              "SO": 0.9163,
              "HR": 0.9715
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          },
          {
            "hitter": "Patrick Bailey",
            "plate_appearances": 3.832,
            "stand": "L",
            "H_batter": 0.9708,
            "H_platoon": 0.9903,
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            "BB_batter": 0.9153,
            "BB_platoon": 1.0257,
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            "SO_batter": 1.1796,
            "SO_platoon": 0.9885,
            "SO_bvp": 1.0,
            "HR_batter": 1.0382,
            "HR_platoon": 1.0106,
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            "bvp_at_bats": null,
            "combined": {
              "H": 0.9614,
              "BB": 0.9388,
              "SO": 1.166,
              "HR": 1.0492
            }
          },
          {
            "hitter": "Petey Halpin",
            "plate_appearances": 3.637,
            "stand": "L",
            "H_batter": 0.9855,
            "H_platoon": 0.9903,
            "H_bvp": 1.0,
            "BB_batter": 0.6616,
            "BB_platoon": 1.0257,
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            "SO_batter": 0.9014,
            "SO_platoon": 0.9885,
            "SO_bvp": 1.0,
            "HR_batter": 0.8781,
            "HR_platoon": 1.0106,
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            "bvp_at_bats": null,
            "combined": {
              "H": 0.9759,
              "BB": 0.6786,
              "SO": 0.891,
              "HR": 0.8874
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          },
          {
            "hitter": "Brayan Rocchio",
            "plate_appearances": 3.565,
            "stand": "L",
            "H_batter": 1.0229,
            "H_platoon": 0.9903,
            "H_bvp": 1.0,
            "BB_batter": 0.8049,
            "BB_platoon": 1.0257,
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            "SO_batter": 0.6787,
            "SO_platoon": 0.9885,
            "SO_bvp": 1.0,
            "HR_batter": 0.8095,
            "HR_platoon": 1.0106,
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            "bvp_at_bats": null,
            "combined": {
              "H": 1.013,
              "BB": 0.8256,
              "SO": 0.6709,
              "HR": 0.8181
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          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "step": "kpi_run_environment",
        "description": "KPI blend withheld: values_fresh; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale",
        "applied": false,
        "kpi_staff_exposure": {
          "usage": "starter",
          "batters_faced": 19.734
        },
        "player_attribution": null
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 3,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "market_blend",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Starter continuous line blended with his own props: model x (market/model) ** w; integer line stays reconciled to the club score",
        "stats_blended": {
          "ER": {
            "model": 2.1911,
            "market_implied": 1.5701,
            "market_multiplier": 0.7166,
            "weight": 0.5183,
            "effective_multiplier": 0.8414,
            "lines": [
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            "books": 3,
            "props": [
              {
                "market": "pitcher_earned_runs",
                "point": 1.5,
                "books": 3,
                "market_p_over": 0.4653,
                "model_p_over": 0.6433,
                "implied_multiplier": 0.7166
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            ]
          },
          "H": {
            "model": 4.216,
            "market_implied": 3.41,
            "market_multiplier": 0.8088,
            "weight": 0.5533,
            "effective_multiplier": 0.8892,
            "lines": [
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            "books": 4,
            "props": [
              {
                "market": "pitcher_hits_allowed",
                "point": 3.5,
                "books": 4,
                "market_p_over": 0.4438,
                "model_p_over": 0.6076,
                "implied_multiplier": 0.8088
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            ]
          },
          "OUTS": {
            "model": 13.665,
            "market_implied": 12.4456,
            "market_multiplier": 0.9108,
            "weight": 0.5467,
            "effective_multiplier": 0.9502,
            "lines": [
              12.5
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            "books": 6,
            "props": [
              {
                "market": "pitcher_outs",
                "point": 12.5,
                "books": 6,
                "market_p_over": 0.4736,
                "model_p_over": 0.605,
                "implied_multiplier": 0.9108
              }
            ]
          },
          "SO": {
            "model": 5.0873,
            "market_implied": 3.9389,
            "market_multiplier": 0.7743,
            "weight": 0.5833,
            "effective_multiplier": 0.8614,
            "lines": [
              3.5
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            "books": 7,
            "props": [
              {
                "market": "pitcher_strikeouts",
                "point": 3.5,
                "books": 7,
                "market_p_over": 0.5545,
                "model_p_over": 0.747,
                "implied_multiplier": 0.7743
              }
            ]
          },
          "BB": {
            "model": 1.8678,
            "market_implied": 1.4039,
            "market_multiplier": 0.7517,
            "weight": 0.5798,
            "effective_multiplier": 0.8475,
            "lines": [
              1.5
            ],
            "books": 2,
            "props": [
              {
                "market": "pitcher_walks",
                "point": 1.5,
                "books": 2,
                "market_p_over": 0.4095,
                "model_p_over": 0.557,
                "implied_multiplier": 0.7517
              }
            ]
          }
        },
        "expected_before": {
          "SO": 5.0873,
          "H": 4.216,
          "BB": 1.8678,
          "ER": 2.1911,
          "IP": 4.555,
          "ERA": 4.329
        },
        "expected_after": {
          "SO": 4.382,
          "H": 3.749,
          "BB": 1.5829,
          "ER": 1.8435,
          "IP": 4.3281,
          "ERA": 3.833
        },
        "line": {
          "IP": 5.0,
          "H": 5,
          "ER": 3,
          "BB": 0,
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      },
      "club_form": "game.<side>_team.predicted_performance.team_form"
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "R": 6,
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      "SO": 5,
      "HR": 2,
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      "source": "play_by_play_realizer_v1",
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      "predicted_ER": 5
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  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
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  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20261010_CHW@CLE.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20261010

20261010_CHW@CLE

home

Gavin Williams

True

4.2

5.2

-1

2/1

4/2

10/12

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

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      "hard_hit_percent": 46.6,
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    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
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      "effective_weights": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "668909",
      "report_date": "20261010",
      "season_year": 2026,
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      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
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            "BB": 11.0,
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          "per_game": {
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            "H_per_IP": 0.79688,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.51562,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.5,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.04688
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        },
        "last_10": {
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          "totals": {
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            "ER": 22.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 40.0,
            "BB": 23.0,
            "SO": 75.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
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            "Pitches": 837.0
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          "per_game": {
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            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 19.8,
            "Pitches": 83.7
          },
          "rates": {
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            "H_per_IP": 0.87591,
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            "SO_per_IP": 1.64234,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13139
          }
        },
        "season": {
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          "totals": {
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            "R": 83.0,
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            "BB": 64.0,
            "SO": 260.0,
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            "Pitches": 3107.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "Pitches": 91.3824
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.41506,
            "H_per_IP": 0.78284,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33625,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.36602,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14711
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.074,
        "predicted_H": 4.042,
        "predicted_BB": 2.223,
        "predicted_SO": 6.941,
        "predicted_HR": 0.494,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.8922,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3063
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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        "predicted_H": {
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          "final": 6.0458,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 10.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": -2.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.6667,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 9.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": -7.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.7778,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -1.0,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.1,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.9,
              "percent_delta": -0.1765,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 10.0,
              "delta": 3.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.4286,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 6,
            "boosted_metrics": 2,
            "deboosted_metrics": 4,
            "better_metrics": 4,
            "worse_metrics": 2,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 10.0,
              "delta": 3.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.4286,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 9.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": -7.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.7778,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          }
        },
        {
          "index": 10,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_SO": 10.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          }
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 1.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": -3.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.75,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 9.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": -7.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.7778,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -1.0,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -1.1333,
            "percent_delta": -0.2125,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 10.0,
            "delta": 3.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.4286,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 6,
          "boosted_metrics": 2,
          "deboosted_metrics": 4,
          "better_metrics": 4,
          "worse_metrics": 2,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 10.0,
            "delta": 3.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.4286,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 9.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": -7.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.7778,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0062,
        "offense_edge": -0.0675,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0673,
        "defense_strength": 0.0901,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0098,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0003,
        "run_prevention": 1.0014,
        "strikeout": 0.9948
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "668909",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "668909",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 700.0,
            "k_percent": 33.2,
            "bb_percent": 8.2,
            "woba": 0.294,
            "xwoba": 0.302,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 11.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 46.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.2974,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.9953,
            "whiff_percent": 32.8,
            "swing_percent": 49.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1041,
            "command_and_miss": 1.1436,
            "regression_edge": -0.2286,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.2857,
            "barrel_edge": -0.9333,
            "hard_hit_edge": -1.2429,
            "whiff_edge": 1.0857,
            "bb_edge": 0.25,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0624
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2212,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9812,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.1069,
          "walk_factor": 0.98,
          "homer_factor": 1.1158,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.008,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "668909",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9812,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9812,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.98,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.1158,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 8.0,
            "factor": 1.1069,
            "adjusted": 9
          }
        }
      },
      "club_form": "game.<side>_team.predicted_performance.team_form"
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "IP": 4.2,
      "H": 2,
      "R": 1,
      "ER": 1,
      "BB": 4,
      "SO": 10,
      "HR": 0,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 94,
      "source": "play_by_play_realizer_v1",
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20261010_CHW@CLE.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20261011

20261011_LAD@MIL

away

Tarik Skubal

True

6.1

5.0

-4

-2

6/5

3/2

6/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.6781376518218627,
      "WHIP": 0.9534412955465588,
      "IP": 164.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.099,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.467,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.7622,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9352,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0823,
      "walk_factor": 0.904,
      "homer_factor": 0.934,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 30.0,
      "bb_percent": 4.4,
      "woba": 0.264,
      "xwoba": 0.266,
      "barrel_percent": 6.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.8,
      "whiff_percent": 31.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 64,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669373",
      "report_date": "20261011",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 32.1,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 34.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 121.0,
            "Pitches": 439.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 6.8,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 24.2,
            "Pitches": 87.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.9485,
            "WHIP": 0.8351,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.21649,
            "H_per_IP": 0.61856,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21649,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.05155,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09278
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 62.0,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 50.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 71.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 244.0,
            "Pitches": 934.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.7,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.3,
            "SO": 7.1,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 24.4,
            "Pitches": 93.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.4677,
            "WHIP": 1.0161,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.27419,
            "H_per_IP": 0.80645,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.20968,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.14516,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06452
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 27,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 164.2,
            "ER": 49.0,
            "R": 53.0,
            "H": 128.0,
            "BB": 29.0,
            "SO": 193.0,
            "HR": 15.0,
            "BF": 642.0,
            "Pitches": 2450.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.8148,
            "R": 1.963,
            "H": 4.7407,
            "BB": 1.0741,
            "SO": 7.1481,
            "HR": 0.5556,
            "BF": 23.7778,
            "Pitches": 90.7407
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.6781,
            "WHIP": 0.9534,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.29757,
            "H_per_IP": 0.77733,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.17611,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.17206,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09109
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.844,
        "predicted_H": 4.759,
        "predicted_BB": 1.465,
        "predicted_SO": 6.787,
        "predicted_HR": 0.582,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.6434,
        "predicted_WHIP": 0.9916
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.416,
      "form_weight": 0.584,
      "form_reliability": 0.8438,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.1,
          "form": 6.1,
          "final": 6.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.844,
          "final": 2.7409,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.759,
          "final": 5.2752,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.465,
          "final": 2.1036,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.787,
          "final": 6.4596,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.582,
          "final": 0.3399,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.6434,
          "final": 2.6434,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 0.9916,
          "final": 0.9916,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 62.0,
        "ER": 17,
        "H": 50,
        "BB": 13,
        "SO": 71,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 2.467741935483871,
        "WHIP": 1.0161290322580645,
        "K9": 10.306451612903226,
        "HR9": 0.5806451612903226,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 7,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-10-03T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7622935032313576,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty",
        "rates_per_inning": {
          "H": 0.6789,
          "BB": 0.2011,
          "SO": 1.0973,
          "HR": 0.0921
        },
        "source": "recent_role_blend",
        "tto_penalty": 1.007,
        "role_avg_IP": 6.099,
        "recent_avg_IP": 6.467
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 27.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8438,
          "prior_weight": 0.1562
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "team_form_adjustment",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors",
        "factors": {
          "ip": 0.9995,
          "run_prevention": 1.0033,
          "strikeout": 0.9877
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "savant_pitcher_quality",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors",
        "factors": {
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0823,
          "walk_factor": 0.904,
          "homer_factor": 0.934,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9352,
          "quality_score": 0.7622
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "opposing_lineup_context",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, platoon split against his hand, batter-versus-pitcher history, weighted by plate appearances",
        "lineup_multipliers": {
          "H": 1.0618,
          "BB": 1.1484,
          "SO": 1.0256,
          "HR": 0.8839
        },
        "weights": {
          "H": 0.0,
          "BB": 0.15,
          "SO": 0.35,
          "HR": 0.0
        },
        "applied_multipliers": {
          "H": 1.0,
          "BB": 1.021,
          "SO": 1.0089,
          "HR": 1.0
        },
        "earned_run_factor": 1.0038,
        "before": {
          "H": 3.924,
          "BB": 1.162,
          "SO": 6.244,
          "HR": 0.537,
          "ER": 1.439,
          "ERA": 2.249
        },
        "after": {
          "H": 3.924,
          "BB": 1.1864,
          "SO": 6.2996,
          "HR": 0.537,
          "ER": 1.4445,
          "ERA": 2.258
        },
        "by_hitter": [
          {
            "hitter": "Jackson Chourio",
            "plate_appearances": 4.56,
            "stand": "R",
            "H_batter": 1.1067,
            "H_platoon": 1.0096,
            "H_bvp": 1.0201,
            "BB_batter": 0.9518,
            "BB_platoon": 1.0662,
            "BB_bvp": 1.0,
            "SO_batter": 1.0307,
            "SO_platoon": 0.9778,
            "SO_bvp": 1.0239,
            "HR_batter": 1.3165,
            "HR_platoon": 1.002,
            "HR_bvp": 0.9471,
            "bvp_at_bats": 9.0,
            "combined": {
              "H": 1.1398,
              "BB": 1.0148,
              "SO": 1.0319,
              "HR": 1.2494
            }
          },
          {
            "hitter": "Brice Turang",
            "plate_appearances": 4.286,
            "stand": "L",
            "H_batter": 1.04,
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        "adjusted_fields": {
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            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9352,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9352,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.904,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.934,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0823,
            "adjusted": 8
          }
        }
      },
      "club_form": "game.<side>_team.predicted_performance.team_form"
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "IP": 6.1,
      "H": 6,
      "R": 4,
      "ER": 4,
      "BB": 3,
      "SO": 6,
      "HR": 0,
      "BF": 30,
      "Pitches": 121,
      "source": "play_by_play_realizer_v1",
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20261011_LAD@MIL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20261011

20261011_LAD@MIL

home

Jacob Misiorowski

True

5.1

4.1

-3

3/5

2/3

6/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 1.8638059701492538,
      "WHIP": 0.8115671641791046,
      "IP": 178.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 31,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.763,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.733,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 1.3589,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.8845,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.1594,
      "walk_factor": 0.948,
      "homer_factor": 0.836,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 37.9,
      "bb_percent": 6.6,
      "woba": 0.216,
      "xwoba": 0.226,
      "barrel_percent": 3.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.3,
      "whiff_percent": 37.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 108,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 6.0,
      "season_IP": 178.2,
      "season_ERA": 1.864,
      "season_WHIP": 0.812,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "694819",
      "report_date": "20261011",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 31,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.2,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 16.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 31.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 91.0,
            "Pitches": 375.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 0.6,
            "R": 0.6,
            "H": 3.2,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 6.2,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 18.2,
            "Pitches": 75.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.1408,
            "WHIP": 0.9296,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.12676,
            "H_per_IP": 0.67606,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25352,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.30986,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 51.2,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 36.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 63.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 203.0,
            "Pitches": 844.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 3.6,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 6.3,
            "HR": 0.3,
            "BF": 20.3,
            "Pitches": 84.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.4387,
            "WHIP": 1.0065,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.27097,
            "H_per_IP": 0.69677,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30968,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.21935,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.05806
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 31,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 178.2,
            "ER": 37.0,
            "R": 45.0,
            "H": 100.0,
            "BB": 45.0,
            "SO": 258.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 683.0,
            "Pitches": 2735.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.1935,
            "R": 1.4516,
            "H": 3.2258,
            "BB": 1.4516,
            "SO": 8.3226,
            "HR": 0.4516,
            "BF": 22.0323,
            "Pitches": 88.2258
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.8638,
            "WHIP": 0.8116,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.20709,
            "H_per_IP": 0.5597,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25187,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.44403,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07836
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.243,
        "predicted_H": 3.685,
        "predicted_BB": 1.505,
        "predicted_SO": 6.549,
        "predicted_HR": 0.269,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.1407,
        "predicted_WHIP": 0.9932
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4087,
      "form_weight": 0.5913,
      "form_reliability": 0.8611,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
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      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.243,
          "final": 1.5524,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 3.685,
          "final": 2.9964,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.505,
          "final": 0.8899,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 6.549,
          "final": 5.5073,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.269,
          "final": 0.5677,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.1407,
          "final": 2.1407,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 0.9932,
          "final": 0.9932,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 51.2,
        "ER": 14,
        "H": 36,
        "BB": 16,
        "SO": 63,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 2.438709677419355,
        "WHIP": 1.006451612903226,
        "K9": 10.974193548387097,
        "HR9": 0.5225806451612903,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-10-03T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7587854387152284,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty",
        "rates_per_inning": {
          "H": 0.6258,
          "BB": 0.2528,
          "SO": 1.3678,
          "HR": 0.0339
        },
        "source": "recent_role_blend",
        "tto_penalty": 1.0027,
        "role_avg_IP": 5.763,
        "recent_avg_IP": 4.733
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 31.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8611,
          "prior_weight": 0.1389
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "team_form_adjustment",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors",
        "factors": {
          "ip": 1.0022,
          "run_prevention": 0.9974,
          "strikeout": 0.9926
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "savant_pitcher_quality",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors",
        "factors": {
          "strikeout_factor": 1.1594,
          "walk_factor": 0.948,
          "homer_factor": 0.836,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.8845,
          "quality_score": 1.3589
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "opposing_lineup_context",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, platoon split against his hand, batter-versus-pitcher history, weighted by plate appearances",
        "lineup_multipliers": {
          "H": 1.0053,
          "BB": 1.1143,
          "SO": 0.9552,
          "HR": 1.1836
        },
        "weights": {
          "H": 0.0,
          "BB": 0.15,
          "SO": 0.35,
          "HR": 0.0
        },
        "applied_multipliers": {
          "H": 1.0,
          "BB": 1.0164,
          "SO": 0.9841,
          "HR": 1.0
        },
        "earned_run_factor": 1.0043,
        "before": {
          "H": 3.028,
          "BB": 1.222,
          "SO": 6.586,
          "HR": 0.165,
          "ER": 0.783,
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        },
        "after": {
          "H": 3.028,
          "BB": 1.242,
          "SO": 6.4813,
          "HR": 0.165,
          "ER": 0.7864,
          "ERA": 1.456
        },
        "by_hitter": [
          {
            "hitter": "Mookie Betts",
            "plate_appearances": 4.337,
            "stand": "R",
            "H_batter": 1.0341,
            "H_platoon": 0.9929,
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            "BB_platoon": 0.9515,
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            "HR_batter": 1.2706,
            "HR_platoon": 0.9986,
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            "combined": {
              "H": 1.0046,
              "BB": 0.9534,
              "SO": 0.5947,
              "HR": 1.2073
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          },
          {
            "hitter": "Freddie Freeman",
            "plate_appearances": 4.397,
            "stand": "L",
            "H_batter": 1.0881,
            "H_platoon": 0.9903,
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            "SO_batter": 0.7943,
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            "HR_batter": 0.9149,
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            "combined": {
              "H": 1.0253,
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              "SO": 0.8546,
              "HR": 0.8798
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          },
          {
            "hitter": "Will Smith",
            "plate_appearances": 4.184,
            "stand": "R",
            "H_batter": 0.9941,
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            "SO_batter": 0.8372,
            "SO_platoon": 1.0163,
            "SO_bvp": 1.0,
            "HR_batter": 1.0714,
            "HR_platoon": 0.9986,
            "HR_bvp": 1.0,
            "bvp_at_bats": null,
            "combined": {
              "H": 0.987,
              "BB": 1.1332,
              "SO": 0.8508,
              "HR": 1.0699
            }
          },
          {
            "hitter": "Shohei Ohtani",
            "plate_appearances": 4.203,
            "stand": "L",
            "H_batter": 1.0278,
            "H_platoon": 0.9903,
            "H_bvp": 1.0055,
            "BB_batter": 1.4376,
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            "HR_batter": 1.4054,
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            "bvp_at_bats": 7.0,
            "combined": {
              "H": 1.0234,
              "BB": 1.4745,
              "SO": 1.1172,
              "HR": 1.5522
            }
          },
          {
            "hitter": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez",
            "plate_appearances": 4.125,
            "stand": "R",
            "H_batter": 1.0442,
            "H_platoon": 0.9929,
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            "HR_batter": 1.0732,
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            "bvp_at_bats": null,
            "combined": {
              "H": 1.0368,
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              "SO": 1.2389,
              "HR": 1.0717
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          },
          {
            "hitter": "Max Muncy",
            "plate_appearances": 4.019,
            "stand": "L",
            "H_batter": 0.9998,
            "H_platoon": 0.9903,
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            "BB_bvp": 1.0,
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            "HR_batter": 1.5838,
            "HR_platoon": 1.0106,
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            "bvp_at_bats": null,
            "combined": {
              "H": 0.9901,
              "BB": 1.2743,
              "SO": 1.0983,
              "HR": 1.6006
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          },
          {
            "hitter": "Andy Pages",
            "plate_appearances": 3.832,
            "stand": "R",
            "H_batter": 1.0612,
            "H_platoon": 0.9929,
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            "BB_batter": 0.987,
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            "SO_batter": 0.9002,
            "SO_platoon": 1.0163,
            "SO_bvp": 0.9817,
            "HR_batter": 1.2025,
            "HR_platoon": 0.9986,
            "HR_bvp": 0.9515,
            "bvp_at_bats": 8.0,
            "combined": {
              "H": 1.0302,
              "BB": 0.9391,
              "SO": 0.8981,
              "HR": 1.1426
            }
          },
          {
            "hitter": "Kyle Tucker",
            "plate_appearances": 3.86,
            "stand": "L",
            "H_batter": 0.9688,
            "H_platoon": 0.9903,
            "H_bvp": 1.0,
            "BB_batter": 1.2876,
            "BB_platoon": 1.0257,
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            "SO_batter": 0.7771,
            "SO_platoon": 0.9885,
            "SO_bvp": 1.0,
            "HR_batter": 0.952,
            "HR_platoon": 1.0106,
            "HR_bvp": 1.0,
            "bvp_at_bats": null,
            "combined": {
              "H": 0.9594,
              "BB": 1.3207,
              "SO": 0.7682,
              "HR": 0.9621
            }
          },
          {
            "hitter": "Enrique Hern\u00e1ndez",
            "plate_appearances": 3.482,
            "stand": "R",
            "H_batter": 0.9914,
            "H_platoon": 0.9929,
            "H_bvp": 1.0,
            "BB_batter": 0.8538,
            "BB_platoon": 0.9515,
            "BB_bvp": 1.0,
            "SO_batter": 1.2099,
            "SO_platoon": 1.0163,
            "SO_bvp": 1.0,
            "HR_batter": 1.1728,
            "HR_platoon": 0.9986,
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            "bvp_at_bats": null,
            "combined": {
              "H": 0.9844,
              "BB": 0.8124,
              "SO": 1.2296,
              "HR": 1.1712
            }
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "step": "kpi_run_environment",
        "description": "KPI blend withheld: values_fresh; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale",
        "applied": false,
        "kpi_staff_exposure": {
          "usage": "starter",
          "batters_faced": 18.833
        },
        "player_attribution": null
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 2,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "market_blend",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Starter continuous line blended with his own props: model x (market/model) ** w; integer line stays reconciled to the club score",
        "stats_blended": {
          "ER": {
            "model": 0.7864,
            "market_implied": 1.4017,
            "market_multiplier": 1.7824,
            "weight": 0.5415,
            "effective_multiplier": 1.3675,
            "lines": [
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            ],
            "books": 3,
            "props": [
              {
                "market": "pitcher_earned_runs",
                "point": 1.5,
                "books": 3,
                "market_p_over": 0.4088,
                "model_p_over": 0.1863,
                "implied_multiplier": 1.7824
              }
            ]
          },
          "H": {
            "model": 3.028,
            "market_implied": 3.5624,
            "market_multiplier": 1.1765,
            "weight": 0.5649,
            "effective_multiplier": 1.0962,
            "lines": [
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            ],
            "books": 3,
            "props": [
              {
                "market": "pitcher_hits_allowed",
                "point": 3.5,
                "books": 3,
                "market_p_over": 0.4768,
                "model_p_over": 0.359,
                "implied_multiplier": 1.1765
              }
            ]
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          "OUTS": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
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        "pitcher_id": "694819",
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          "pitcher_id": "694819",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
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            "avg_best_speed": 76.4985,
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          },
          "league_medians": {
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          "components": {
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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      },
      "club_form": "game.<side>_team.predicted_performance.team_form"
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "R": 1,
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      "SO": 6,
      "HR": 0,
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      "Pitches": 80,
      "source": "play_by_play_realizer_v1",
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  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20261011_LAD@MIL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}