MLB JSON Audit Report

Generated 2026-10-11 22:39:10. This single HTML file audits only the selected game date. The default view focuses on actionable problems first; detailed checks, passed checks, batting, pitching, pitch counts, and the rule catalog stay available in collapsible sections.

0Critical
0Error
0Warn
109Pass
1Info

20261011_LAD@MIL

20261011_LAD@MIL.json • 2026-10-11

LAD 2 - MIL 4
PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 109INFO 1

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows
SeverityCategorySourceTeamPlayerRuleMessageValueExpected
All findings - complete audit trail
SeverityCategorySourceTeamPlayerRuleMessageValueExpected
INFOscore_reconciliationRECONCILIATION_PROPAGATIONNo score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASSbattingcurrentLADBATTING_REALISMcurrent:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingcurrentMILBATTING_REALISMcurrent:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingsimulationLADBATTING_REALISMsimulation:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingsimulationMILBATTING_REALISMsimulation:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbatting_totalscurrentLADBATTING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalscurrentMILBATTING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalssimulationLADBATTING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalssimulationMILBATTING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationLADBAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHsimulation:LAD batting walks match MIL pitching: 4.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationLADBAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHsimulation:LAD batting home runs match MIL pitching: 1.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationLADBAT_PITCH_H_MATCHsimulation:LAD batting hits match MIL pitching: 4.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationLADBAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHsimulation:LAD batting strikeouts match MIL pitching: 9.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationLADPA_BF_MATCHsimulation:LAD PA=35 matches MIL BF=35.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationLADRUNS_MATCH_FINALsimulation:LAD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationMILBAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHsimulation:MIL batting walks match LAD pitching: 4.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationMILBAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHsimulation:MIL batting home runs match LAD pitching: 0.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationMILBAT_PITCH_H_MATCHsimulation:MIL batting hits match LAD pitching: 6.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationMILBAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHsimulation:MIL batting strikeouts match LAD pitching: 9.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationMILPA_BF_MATCHsimulation:MIL PA=36 matches LAD BF=36.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationMILRUNS_MATCH_FINALsimulation:MIL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASSconfidence_calibrationCONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIEDEmpirical confidence blend verified: 0.531 -> 0.551 at weight 0.450.{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.530967, 'sample_size': 699, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5751, 'empirical_weight': 0.45, 'empirical_max_weight': 0.45, 'empirical_sample_scale': 200.0, 'blended_confidence': 0.550827, 'published_confidence': 0.548241, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASScross_schemacross-schemaLADCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXLAD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASScross_schemacross-schemaMILCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXMIL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentLADCURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPELAD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentLADCURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKLAD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentLADCURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTLAD current hitter names are populated.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentLADCURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDLAD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentMILCURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPEMIL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentMILCURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKMIL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentMILCURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTMIL current hitter names are populated.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentMILCURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDMIL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASScurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaLADCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXLAD current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASScurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaLADCURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXLAD current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASScurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaMILCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXMIL current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASScurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaMILCURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXMIL current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASSdata_leakageH2H_DATA_LEAKAGEAll head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEHome + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEaway_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.452.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEconfidence is in [0,1]: 0.548.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEhome_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.548.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISFinal total runs 6 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 6.0.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISLow-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISLow-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.733/0.900.
PASSfinal_decisionFINAL_DECISION_POLICYFinal decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASSinningsGAME_ENDING_COHERENTThe game ends coherently for its score.
PASSinningsINNINGS_COUNTinning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASSinningsINNING_OUTSInning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASSinningsINNING_PLAY_SUMSDetailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASSinningsINNING_SEQUENCEInning numbers are sequential.
PASSinningsINNING_TOTAL_HITSInning hits match batting totals: LAD 4, MIL 6.
PASSinningsINNING_TOTAL_RUNSInning runs sum to final score: LAD 2 - MIL 4.
PASSkpiLUNA_KPI_TRACELuna KPI trace coherent (no_promoted_kpis).
PASSmatchup_recencyGUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNCGuardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIL.
PASSmatchup_recencyMATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAILNo stale repeat-pick pattern detected for MIL.{'winner_confidence': 0.548241, 'h2h_net_margin': 5, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 4, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260816', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260816_MIL@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260815', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260815_MIL@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260814', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260814_MIL@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260813', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51095, 'artifact': '20260813_MIL@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}}
PASSmetadataDATE_PARSEDate is valid ISO format: 2026-10-11.
PASSmetadataFILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCHFilename matches game_id: 20261011_LAD@MIL.
PASSmetadataFILENAME_TEAM_MATCHFilename teams match JSON teams: LAD@MIL.
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSH2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 2.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 2.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.4, 'home_run_delta': 0.0115, 'away_run_delta': -0.0115, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSScore distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.03048065635123685}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.02971535938338882}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.028474146349854255}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.028068515824689066}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.027759228087842477}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.0883022901355031, '1': 0.12773282088661514, '2': 0.15894781869253627, '3': 0.170148519285485, '4': 0.1566835159676033, '5': 0.12411948811684768, '6': 0.08458204397897527, '7': 0.0495835832699874, '8': 0.025004557568802155, '9': 0.010847308031820524, '10': 0.004048054065823897}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.10039091841867395, '1': 0.14398554966485957, '2': 0.17464365548506877, '3': 0.17914147286873916, '4': 0.15539924025947524, '5': 0.1140016310590986, '6': 0.07072658059672843, '7': 0.03710766966550577, '8': 0.016464711487228424, '9': 0.006178086592985461, '10': 0.001960483901636488}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.25, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSSeason/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.108, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.192, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.003}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSSimulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'LAD 2 - 4 MIL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'LAD 2 - 4 MIL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0718, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.122, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'MIL', 'model_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'MIL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.1667, 'draw_majority_team': 'LAD', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.003, 'winner': 'MIL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASSpipelinePIPELINE_VERSIONPrediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASSpitch_by_pitchPITCH_DETAIL_SANITYPitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASSpitch_countPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHaway pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 145.
PASSpitch_countPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHhome pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 142.
PASSpitch_countsimulationLADPITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHLAD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASSpitch_countsimulationLADPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHLAD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 145.
PASSpitch_countsimulationMILPITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHMIL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASSpitch_countsimulationMILPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHMIL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 142.
PASSpitcher_opponent_strengthPITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDSPitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASSpitchingPITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENTAll 6 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASSpitchingPUBLISHED_PITCHER_LINES_MATCH_BOXPublished pitcher lines cover the outs the box recorded.
PASSpitchingcurrentLADPITCHING_REALISMcurrent:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingcurrentLADSTARTER_PRESENTcurrent:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingcurrentMILPITCHING_REALISMcurrent:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingcurrentMILSTARTER_PRESENTcurrent:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingsimulationLADPITCHING_REALISMsimulation:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingsimulationLADSTARTER_PRESENTsimulation:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingsimulationMILPITCHING_REALISMsimulation:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingsimulationMILSTARTER_PRESENTsimulation:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentLADPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentLADPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentMILPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentMILPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationLADPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationLADPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationMILPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationMILPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHEnhanced AI score matches enhanced target: LAD 2 - 4 MIL.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHInning simulation score matches final score: LAD 2 - 4 MIL.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHInning simulation winner matches final score: MIL wins 4-2.
PASSprediction_comparisonSIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACESimulation decision is explicit: model=MIL, simulation=MIL, published=MIL.
PASSprobabilityCONFIDENCE_RANGEEnhanced target confidence is in range: 0.548.
PASSrecent_formRECENT_FORM_RANGEaway recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASSrecent_formRECENT_FORM_RANGEhome recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASSreportREPORT_COMPLETEAll findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASSschemaSCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENTBoth major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASSscoreGAME_SUMMARY_MATCHgame_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): MIL wins 4-2.
PASSscoreSCORE_NO_TIEFinal score has a clear winner: MIL wins 2-4.
PASSscoreSCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCHsimulation_result step matches final score: 2-4.
PASSscoreSCORE_STEP_ORDERScore evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASSscoreTARGET_SCORE_DRIFTFinal score is close to enhanced target: target 2-4, final 2-4 (delta 0).
PASSscoreTOTAL_RUNS_MATCHtotal_runs field matches final score total: 6.
PASSscoreWINNER_FIELD_MATCHwinner field is consistent: MIL wins 4-2.
PASSscorecross-schemaCURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIMgame.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentLADRECENT_FORM_RANGELAD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentLADTEAM_RECENT_RECORDLAD wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentMILRECENT_FORM_RANGEMIL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentMILTEAM_RECENT_RECORDMIL wins and win_pct agree: 8/10 = 0.800.
Passed checks
SeverityCategorySourceTeamPlayerRuleMessageValueExpected
PASSbattingcurrentLADBATTING_REALISMcurrent:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingcurrentMILBATTING_REALISMcurrent:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingsimulationLADBATTING_REALISMsimulation:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingsimulationMILBATTING_REALISMsimulation:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbatting_totalscurrentLADBATTING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalscurrentMILBATTING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalssimulationLADBATTING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalssimulationMILBATTING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationLADBAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHsimulation:LAD batting walks match MIL pitching: 4.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationLADBAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHsimulation:LAD batting home runs match MIL pitching: 1.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationLADBAT_PITCH_H_MATCHsimulation:LAD batting hits match MIL pitching: 4.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationLADBAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHsimulation:LAD batting strikeouts match MIL pitching: 9.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationLADPA_BF_MATCHsimulation:LAD PA=35 matches MIL BF=35.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationLADRUNS_MATCH_FINALsimulation:LAD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationMILBAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHsimulation:MIL batting walks match LAD pitching: 4.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationMILBAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHsimulation:MIL batting home runs match LAD pitching: 0.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationMILBAT_PITCH_H_MATCHsimulation:MIL batting hits match LAD pitching: 6.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationMILBAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHsimulation:MIL batting strikeouts match LAD pitching: 9.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationMILPA_BF_MATCHsimulation:MIL PA=36 matches LAD BF=36.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationMILRUNS_MATCH_FINALsimulation:MIL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASSconfidence_calibrationCONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIEDEmpirical confidence blend verified: 0.531 -> 0.551 at weight 0.450.{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.530967, 'sample_size': 699, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5751, 'empirical_weight': 0.45, 'empirical_max_weight': 0.45, 'empirical_sample_scale': 200.0, 'blended_confidence': 0.550827, 'published_confidence': 0.548241, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASScross_schemacross-schemaLADCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXLAD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASScross_schemacross-schemaMILCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXMIL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentLADCURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPELAD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentLADCURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKLAD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentLADCURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTLAD current hitter names are populated.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentLADCURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDLAD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentMILCURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPEMIL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentMILCURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKMIL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentMILCURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTMIL current hitter names are populated.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentMILCURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDMIL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASScurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaLADCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXLAD current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASScurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaLADCURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXLAD current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASScurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaMILCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXMIL current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASScurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaMILCURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXMIL current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASSdata_leakageH2H_DATA_LEAKAGEAll head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEHome + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEaway_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.452.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEconfidence is in [0,1]: 0.548.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEhome_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.548.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISFinal total runs 6 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 6.0.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISLow-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISLow-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.733/0.900.
PASSfinal_decisionFINAL_DECISION_POLICYFinal decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASSinningsGAME_ENDING_COHERENTThe game ends coherently for its score.
PASSinningsINNINGS_COUNTinning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASSinningsINNING_OUTSInning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASSinningsINNING_PLAY_SUMSDetailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASSinningsINNING_SEQUENCEInning numbers are sequential.
PASSinningsINNING_TOTAL_HITSInning hits match batting totals: LAD 4, MIL 6.
PASSinningsINNING_TOTAL_RUNSInning runs sum to final score: LAD 2 - MIL 4.
PASSkpiLUNA_KPI_TRACELuna KPI trace coherent (no_promoted_kpis).
PASSmatchup_recencyGUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNCGuardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIL.
PASSmatchup_recencyMATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAILNo stale repeat-pick pattern detected for MIL.{'winner_confidence': 0.548241, 'h2h_net_margin': 5, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 4, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260816', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260816_MIL@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260815', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260815_MIL@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260814', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260814_MIL@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260813', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51095, 'artifact': '20260813_MIL@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}}
PASSmetadataDATE_PARSEDate is valid ISO format: 2026-10-11.
PASSmetadataFILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCHFilename matches game_id: 20261011_LAD@MIL.
PASSmetadataFILENAME_TEAM_MATCHFilename teams match JSON teams: LAD@MIL.
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSH2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 2.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 2.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.4, 'home_run_delta': 0.0115, 'away_run_delta': -0.0115, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSScore distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.03048065635123685}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.02971535938338882}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.028474146349854255}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.028068515824689066}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.027759228087842477}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.0883022901355031, '1': 0.12773282088661514, '2': 0.15894781869253627, '3': 0.170148519285485, '4': 0.1566835159676033, '5': 0.12411948811684768, '6': 0.08458204397897527, '7': 0.0495835832699874, '8': 0.025004557568802155, '9': 0.010847308031820524, '10': 0.004048054065823897}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.10039091841867395, '1': 0.14398554966485957, '2': 0.17464365548506877, '3': 0.17914147286873916, '4': 0.15539924025947524, '5': 0.1140016310590986, '6': 0.07072658059672843, '7': 0.03710766966550577, '8': 0.016464711487228424, '9': 0.006178086592985461, '10': 0.001960483901636488}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.25, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSSeason/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.108, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.192, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.003}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSSimulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'LAD 2 - 4 MIL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'LAD 2 - 4 MIL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0718, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.122, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'MIL', 'model_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'MIL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.1667, 'draw_majority_team': 'LAD', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.003, 'winner': 'MIL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASSpipelinePIPELINE_VERSIONPrediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASSpitch_by_pitchPITCH_DETAIL_SANITYPitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASSpitch_countPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHaway pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 145.
PASSpitch_countPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHhome pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 142.
PASSpitch_countsimulationLADPITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHLAD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASSpitch_countsimulationLADPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHLAD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 145.
PASSpitch_countsimulationMILPITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHMIL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASSpitch_countsimulationMILPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHMIL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 142.
PASSpitcher_opponent_strengthPITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDSPitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASSpitchingPITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENTAll 6 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASSpitchingPUBLISHED_PITCHER_LINES_MATCH_BOXPublished pitcher lines cover the outs the box recorded.
PASSpitchingcurrentLADPITCHING_REALISMcurrent:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingcurrentLADSTARTER_PRESENTcurrent:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingcurrentMILPITCHING_REALISMcurrent:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingcurrentMILSTARTER_PRESENTcurrent:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingsimulationLADPITCHING_REALISMsimulation:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingsimulationLADSTARTER_PRESENTsimulation:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingsimulationMILPITCHING_REALISMsimulation:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingsimulationMILSTARTER_PRESENTsimulation:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentLADPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentLADPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentMILPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentMILPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationLADPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationLADPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationMILPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationMILPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHEnhanced AI score matches enhanced target: LAD 2 - 4 MIL.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHInning simulation score matches final score: LAD 2 - 4 MIL.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHInning simulation winner matches final score: MIL wins 4-2.
PASSprediction_comparisonSIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACESimulation decision is explicit: model=MIL, simulation=MIL, published=MIL.
PASSprobabilityCONFIDENCE_RANGEEnhanced target confidence is in range: 0.548.
PASSrecent_formRECENT_FORM_RANGEaway recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASSrecent_formRECENT_FORM_RANGEhome recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASSreportREPORT_COMPLETEAll findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASSschemaSCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENTBoth major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASSscoreGAME_SUMMARY_MATCHgame_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): MIL wins 4-2.
PASSscoreSCORE_NO_TIEFinal score has a clear winner: MIL wins 2-4.
PASSscoreSCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCHsimulation_result step matches final score: 2-4.
PASSscoreSCORE_STEP_ORDERScore evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASSscoreTARGET_SCORE_DRIFTFinal score is close to enhanced target: target 2-4, final 2-4 (delta 0).
PASSscoreTOTAL_RUNS_MATCHtotal_runs field matches final score total: 6.
PASSscoreWINNER_FIELD_MATCHwinner field is consistent: MIL wins 4-2.
PASSscorecross-schemaCURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIMgame.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentLADRECENT_FORM_RANGELAD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentLADTEAM_RECENT_RECORDLAD wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentMILRECENT_FORM_RANGEMIL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentMILTEAM_RECENT_RECORDMIL wins and win_pct agree: 8/10 = 0.800.
Info/context findings
SeverityCategorySourceTeamPlayerRuleMessageValueExpected
INFOscore_reconciliationRECONCILIATION_PROPAGATIONNo score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
Score evolution
stepaway_runshome_runsconfidencedescription
historical_ml4.1603081095848374.808204291274732Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied45Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction340.548Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
kpi_layer3.04.0Savant KPI blend computed and withheld; baseline kept
embedded_savant_run_environment24Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review24Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target24Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result24Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Inning-by-inning linescore
team123456789RH
LAD00100010024
MIL01210000046
Team totals - current + final simulation
srcteamtypePAABH2B3BHRRBIRBBSOSFHBPSBCSIPERBFPitches
currentLADbatting31410122490000
currentLADpitching604498.0400
currentMILbatting30610044491100
currentMILpitching412499.0200
simulationLADbatting314101224900
simulationLADpitching604498.0436145
simulationMILbatting306100444911
simulationMILpitching412499.0235142
Batting lines - current + final simulation
srcteamorderposnamePAABH2B3BHRRRBIBBSOHBPAVG
currentLADSSMookie Betts030000001000.000
currentLAD1BFreddie Freeman030000001200.000
currentLADCWill Smith041000010100.250
currentLADDHShohei Ohtani040000000100.000
currentLADLFTeoscar Hernández040000000100.000
currentLAD3BMax Muncy031000001000.333
currentLADCFAndy Pages031001111200.333
currentLADRFKyle Tucker040000000100.000
currentLAD2BEnrique Hernández031100100100.333
currentMILLFJackson Chourio041000010000.250
currentMIL2BBrice Turang031000100110.333
currentMILCWilliam Contreras031100111100.333
currentMIL1BJake Bauers031000001100.333
currentMILDHAndrew Vaughn030000010100.000
currentMILCFGarrett Mitchell040000000300.000
currentMILSSCooper Pratt041000100000.250
currentMILRFLuis Lara030000101100.000
currentMIL3BJoey Ortiz031000011100.333
simulationLAD1SSMookie Betts430000001000.000
simulationLAD21BFreddie Freeman430000001200.000
simulationLAD3CWill Smith441000010100.250
simulationLAD4DHShohei Ohtani440000000100.000
simulationLAD5LFTeoscar Hernández440000000100.000
simulationLAD63BMax Muncy431000001000.333
simulationLAD7CFAndy Pages431001111200.333
simulationLAD8RFKyle Tucker440000000100.000
simulationLAD92BEnrique Hernández331100100100.333
simulationMIL1LFJackson Chourio441000010000.250
simulationMIL22BBrice Turang431000100110.333
simulationMIL3CWilliam Contreras431100111100.333
simulationMIL41BJake Bauers431000001100.333
simulationMIL5DHAndrew Vaughn430000010100.000
simulationMIL6CFGarrett Mitchell440000000300.000
simulationMIL7SSCooper Pratt441000100000.250
simulationMIL8RFLuis Lara430000101100.000
simulationMIL93BJoey Ortiz431000011100.333
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
srcteamordernameroleIPHRERBBSOHRBFPitchessim_ERAseason_ERAseason_WHIP
currentLAD1Tarik SkubalStarter6.1644360005.682.680.95
currentLAD2Alex VesiaMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.2000130000.002.561.06
currentMIL1Jacob MisiorowskiStarter5.1311260001.691.860.81
currentMIL2JoJo RomeroLong Reliever1.1111021006.753.381.21
currentMIL4Antonio SenzatelaMiddle Reliever1.0000100000.003.961.37
currentMIL5Aaron AshbyMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.1000110000.002.941.27
simulationLAD1Tarik SkubalStarter6.1644360301215.682.680.95
simulationLAD2Alex VesiaMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.20001306240.002.561.06
simulationMIL1Jacob MisiorowskiStarter5.131126021801.691.860.81
simulationMIL2JoJo RomeroLong Reliever1.11110215246.753.381.21
simulationMIL3Antonio SenzatelaMiddle Reliever1.00001004140.003.961.37
simulationMIL4Aaron AshbyMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.10001105240.002.941.27
Pitch count summary
teampitcherroleIPRHBBSOBFPitches
LADTarik SkubalStarter6.1463630121
LADAlex VesiaMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.20013624
MILJacob MisiorowskiStarter5.113262180
MILJoJo RomeroLong Reliever1.11102524
MILAntonio SenzatelaMiddle Reliever1.00010414
MILAaron AshbyMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.10011524
Audit rule catalog
rulestatuscriticalerrorwarningpassdescription
BATTING_REALISMgood0004Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUMgood0004Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHgood0002Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHgood0002Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCHgood0002Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHgood0002Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIEDgood0001Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGEgood0005Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXgood0004Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPEgood0002Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKgood0002Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTgood0002Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONnot triggered0000Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXgood0002Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDgood0002Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIMgood0001game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSEgood0001Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCHgood0001Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCHgood0001Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICYgood0001One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_ENDING_COHERENTgood0001The inning line ends the way a real game with the published score ends.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCHgood0001game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNCgood0001Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGEgood0001Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNTgood0001Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTSgood0001Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMSgood0001Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCEgood0001Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITSgood0001Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNSgood0001Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSISgood0003Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
LUNA_KPI_TRACEgood0001Promoted Luna KPIs are traced per hitter and the per-game totals agree.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAILgood0001Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSgood0004H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCHgood0002Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSIONgood0001Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENTgood0001Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDSgood0001Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISMgood0004Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUMgood0008Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHgood0002Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHgood0004Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITYgood0001Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHgood0003prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
PUBLISHED_PITCHER_LINES_MATCH_BOXgood0001Published staff lines cover the outs the box recorded, extra innings included.
RECENT_FORM_RANGEgood0004Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATIONinfo0000When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETEgood0001Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORTnot triggered0000Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINALgood0002Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENTgood0001Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIEgood0001Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCHgood0001score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDERgood0001Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACEgood0001Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENTgood0004Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYSnot triggered0000Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFTgood0001Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORDgood0002team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCHgood0001total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCHgood0001winner field agrees with the final score.