MLB JSON Audit Report

Generated 2026-10-06 14:29:23. This single HTML file audits only the selected game date. The default view focuses on actionable problems first; detailed checks, passed checks, batting, pitching, pitch counts, and the rule catalog stay available in collapsible sections.

0Critical
1Error
0Warn
206Pass
14Info

20261004_ATL@LAD

20261004_ATL@LAD__20261005T003846Z.json • 2026-10-04

ATL 3 - LAD 4
ERROR

Final simulation is close, but errors remain. Risk score: 40.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 1WARN 0PASS 102INFO 7
Action summary - what to fix first
LevelProblem group / fixCountTeamsExample
ERRORPitching
Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.
0C / 1E / 0W-Published pitcher lines disagree with the box: away published 24 outs, box 25
Problems table - exact rows
SeverityCategorySourceTeamPlayerRuleMessageValueExpected
ERRORpitchingPUBLISHED_PITCHER_LINES_MATCH_BOXPublished pitcher lines disagree with the box: away published 24 outs, box 25{'offenders': ['away published 24 outs, box 25']}Each staff's published innings equal the outs its box recorded, extra innings included.
All findings - complete audit trail
SeverityCategorySourceTeamPlayerRuleMessageValueExpected
ERRORpitchingPUBLISHED_PITCHER_LINES_MATCH_BOXPublished pitcher lines disagree with the box: away published 24 outs, box 25{'offenders': ['away published 24 outs, box 25']}Each staff's published innings equal the outs its box recorded, extra innings included.
INFOcurrent_payloadcurrentATLCURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFOcurrent_payloadcurrentLADCURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONLAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaATLCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXATL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=31; H: current=8, sim=6; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; SO: current=10, sim=13; SF: current=0, sim=2).New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaATLCURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXATL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ronald Acuña Jr.: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Drake Baldwin: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Mauricio Dubón: SO current=1 box=2; Sean Murphy: 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Ozzie Albies: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Matt Olson: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Michael Harris II: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Austin Riley: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=2 box=1New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaLADCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXLAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=30; H: current=7, sim=5; HR: current=1, sim=2; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=7, sim=6).New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaLADCURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXLAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Shohei Ohtani: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Will Smith: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0; Freddie Freeman: R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Mookie Betts: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Miguel Rojas: H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Teoscar Hernández: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, SO current=1 box=0; Kyle Tucker: AB current=4 box=3, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Andy Pages: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFOscore_reconciliationRECONCILIATION_PROPAGATIONNo score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASSbattingcurrentATLBATTING_REALISMcurrent:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingcurrentLADBATTING_REALISMcurrent:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingsimulationATLBATTING_REALISMsimulation:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingsimulationLADBATTING_REALISMsimulation:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbatting_totalscurrentATLBATTING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalscurrentLADBATTING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalssimulationATLBATTING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalssimulationLADBATTING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationATLBAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHsimulation:ATL batting walks match LAD pitching: 3.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationATLBAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHsimulation:ATL batting home runs match LAD pitching: 0.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationATLBAT_PITCH_H_MATCHsimulation:ATL batting hits match LAD pitching: 6.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationATLBAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHsimulation:ATL batting strikeouts match LAD pitching: 13.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationATLPA_BF_MATCHsimulation:ATL PA=36 matches LAD BF=36.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationATLRUNS_MATCH_FINALsimulation:ATL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationLADBAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHsimulation:LAD batting walks match ATL pitching: 2.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationLADBAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHsimulation:LAD batting home runs match ATL pitching: 2.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationLADBAT_PITCH_H_MATCHsimulation:LAD batting hits match ATL pitching: 5.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationLADBAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHsimulation:LAD batting strikeouts match ATL pitching: 6.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationLADPA_BF_MATCHsimulation:LAD PA=32 matches ATL BF=32.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationLADRUNS_MATCH_FINALsimulation:LAD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASSconfidence_calibrationCONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIEDEmpirical confidence blend verified: 0.510 -> 0.543 at weight 0.500.{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5101, 'sample_size': 482, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5768, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.54345, 'published_confidence': 0.514946, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASScross_schemacross-schemaATLCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXATL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASScross_schemacross-schemaLADCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXLAD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentATLCURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPEATL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentATLCURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKATL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentATLCURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTATL current hitter names are populated.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentATLCURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDATL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentLADCURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPELAD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentLADCURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKLAD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentLADCURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTLAD current hitter names are populated.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentLADCURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDLAD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASSdata_leakageH2H_DATA_LEAKAGEAll head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEHome + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEaway_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.485.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEconfidence is in [0,1]: 0.515.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEhome_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.515.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISFinal total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISLow-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISLow-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.730/0.900.
PASSfinal_decisionFINAL_DECISION_POLICYFinal decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASSinningsGAME_ENDING_COHERENTThe game ends coherently for its score.
PASSinningsINNINGS_COUNTinning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASSinningsINNING_PLAY_SUMSDetailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASSinningsINNING_SEQUENCEInning numbers are sequential.
PASSinningsINNING_TOTAL_HITSInning hits match batting totals: ATL 6, LAD 5.
PASSinningsINNING_TOTAL_RUNSInning runs sum to final score: ATL 3 - LAD 4.
PASSmatchup_recencyGUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNCGuardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAD.
PASSmatchup_recencyMATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAILMatchup recency guardrail applied for LAD; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result; latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design.{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'opponent_team': 'ATL', 'h2h_net_margin': -3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-27', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'ATL'}, {'date': '2026-08-26', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'ATL'}, {'date': '2026-08-25', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'ATL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 4, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 2, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20261003', 'away': 'ATL', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.546692, 'artifact': '20261003_ATL@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260827', 'away': 'LAD', 'home': 'ATL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.560841, 'artifact': '20260827_LAD@ATL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260826', 'away': 'LAD', 'home': 'ATL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5486690000000001, 'artifact': '20260826_LAD@ATL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260825', 'away': 'LAD', 'home': 'ATL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5545089999999999, 'artifact': '20260825_LAD@ATL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'LAD', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'ATL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'output_opponent_team': 'ATL', 'simulation_score_winner': 'LAD', 'final_score_winner': 'LAD', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'ATL 3 - 4 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'ATL 3 - 4 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.073, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.314, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'LAD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.3333, 'draw_majority_team': 'ATL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.6096, 'winner': 'LAD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASSmetadataDATE_PARSEDate is valid ISO format: 2026-10-04.
PASSmetadataFILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCHFilename contains game_id: filename=20261004_ATL@LAD__20261005T003846Z, game_id=20261004_ATL@LAD.
PASSmetadataFILENAME_TEAM_MATCHFilename teams match JSON teams: ATL@LAD.
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSH2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -13.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 13.0, 'home_average_margin': -2.6, 'home_run_delta': -0.075, 'away_run_delta': 0.075, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -5.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSScore distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.028222820230211776}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.0265181780356338}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.026307011487808}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.026069515180494638}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02598831593214533}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.0841529373742921, '1': 0.12208141372398842, '2': 0.15323247657232358, '3': 0.1664075752743024, '4': 0.15635665293570739, '5': 0.12711026918853163, '6': 0.08940584509052579, '7': 0.054409180861758805, '8': 0.028648340072565028, '9': 0.013051118710441978, '10': 0.005144190195562751}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.08767011620706518, '1': 0.1268741591486834, '2': 0.15808782409360952, '3': 0.16960057367394443, '4': 0.15666062760377497, '5': 0.12459369260852138, '6': 0.08531706417814217, '7': 0.050301321878038256, '8': 0.025534452110624006, '9': 0.011160337784586449, '10': 0.0041998307130102904}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.25, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSSeason/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.5802, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.664, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.6096}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSSimulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'ATL 3 - 4 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'ATL 3 - 4 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.073, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.314, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'LAD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.3333, 'draw_majority_team': 'ATL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.6096, 'winner': 'LAD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASSpipelinePIPELINE_VERSIONPrediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASSpitch_by_pitchPITCH_DETAIL_SANITYPitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASSpitch_countPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHaway pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 132.
PASSpitch_countPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHhome pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 159.
PASSpitch_countsimulationATLPITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHATL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASSpitch_countsimulationATLPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHATL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 132.
PASSpitch_countsimulationLADPITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHLAD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASSpitch_countsimulationLADPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHLAD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 159.
PASSpitcher_opponent_strengthPITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDSPitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASSpitchingPITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENTAll 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASSpitchingcurrentATLPITCHING_REALISMcurrent:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingcurrentATLSTARTER_PRESENTcurrent:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingcurrentLADPITCHING_REALISMcurrent:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingcurrentLADSTARTER_PRESENTcurrent:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingsimulationATLPITCHING_REALISMsimulation:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingsimulationATLSTARTER_PRESENTsimulation:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingsimulationLADPITCHING_REALISMsimulation:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingsimulationLADSTARTER_PRESENTsimulation:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentATLPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentATLPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentLADPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentLADPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationATLPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.1.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationATLPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationLADPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationLADPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHEnhanced AI score matches enhanced target: ATL 3 - 4 LAD.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHInning simulation score matches final score: ATL 3 - 4 LAD.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHInning simulation winner matches final score: LAD wins 4-3.
PASSprediction_comparisonSIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACESimulation decision is explicit: model=LAD, simulation=LAD, published=LAD.
PASSprobabilityCONFIDENCE_RANGEEnhanced target confidence is in range: 0.515.
PASSrecent_formRECENT_FORM_RANGEaway recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASSrecent_formRECENT_FORM_RANGEhome recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASSreportREPORT_COMPLETEAll findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASSschemaSCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENTBoth major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASSscoreGAME_SUMMARY_MATCHgame_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): LAD wins 4-3.
PASSscoreSCORE_NO_TIEFinal score has a clear winner: LAD wins 3-4.
PASSscoreSCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCHsimulation_result step matches final score: 3-4.
PASSscoreSCORE_STEP_ORDERScore evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASSscoreTARGET_SCORE_DRIFTFinal score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-4 (delta 0).
PASSscoreTOTAL_RUNS_MATCHtotal_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASSscoreWINNER_FIELD_MATCHwinner field is consistent: LAD wins 4-3.
PASSscorecross-schemaCURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIMgame.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentATLRECENT_FORM_RANGEATL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentATLTEAM_RECENT_RECORDATL wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentLADRECENT_FORM_RANGELAD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentLADTEAM_RECENT_RECORDLAD wins and win_pct agree: 8/10 = 0.800.
Passed checks
SeverityCategorySourceTeamPlayerRuleMessageValueExpected
PASSbattingcurrentATLBATTING_REALISMcurrent:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingcurrentLADBATTING_REALISMcurrent:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingsimulationATLBATTING_REALISMsimulation:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingsimulationLADBATTING_REALISMsimulation:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbatting_totalscurrentATLBATTING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalscurrentLADBATTING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalssimulationATLBATTING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalssimulationLADBATTING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationATLBAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHsimulation:ATL batting walks match LAD pitching: 3.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationATLBAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHsimulation:ATL batting home runs match LAD pitching: 0.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationATLBAT_PITCH_H_MATCHsimulation:ATL batting hits match LAD pitching: 6.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationATLBAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHsimulation:ATL batting strikeouts match LAD pitching: 13.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationATLPA_BF_MATCHsimulation:ATL PA=36 matches LAD BF=36.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationATLRUNS_MATCH_FINALsimulation:ATL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationLADBAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHsimulation:LAD batting walks match ATL pitching: 2.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationLADBAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHsimulation:LAD batting home runs match ATL pitching: 2.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationLADBAT_PITCH_H_MATCHsimulation:LAD batting hits match ATL pitching: 5.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationLADBAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHsimulation:LAD batting strikeouts match ATL pitching: 6.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationLADPA_BF_MATCHsimulation:LAD PA=32 matches ATL BF=32.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationLADRUNS_MATCH_FINALsimulation:LAD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASSconfidence_calibrationCONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIEDEmpirical confidence blend verified: 0.510 -> 0.543 at weight 0.500.{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5101, 'sample_size': 482, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5768, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.54345, 'published_confidence': 0.514946, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASScross_schemacross-schemaATLCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXATL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASScross_schemacross-schemaLADCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXLAD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentATLCURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPEATL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentATLCURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKATL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentATLCURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTATL current hitter names are populated.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentATLCURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDATL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentLADCURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPELAD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentLADCURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKLAD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentLADCURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTLAD current hitter names are populated.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentLADCURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDLAD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASSdata_leakageH2H_DATA_LEAKAGEAll head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEHome + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEaway_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.485.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEconfidence is in [0,1]: 0.515.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEhome_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.515.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISFinal total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISLow-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISLow-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.730/0.900.
PASSfinal_decisionFINAL_DECISION_POLICYFinal decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASSinningsGAME_ENDING_COHERENTThe game ends coherently for its score.
PASSinningsINNINGS_COUNTinning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASSinningsINNING_PLAY_SUMSDetailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASSinningsINNING_SEQUENCEInning numbers are sequential.
PASSinningsINNING_TOTAL_HITSInning hits match batting totals: ATL 6, LAD 5.
PASSinningsINNING_TOTAL_RUNSInning runs sum to final score: ATL 3 - LAD 4.
PASSmatchup_recencyGUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNCGuardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAD.
PASSmatchup_recencyMATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAILMatchup recency guardrail applied for LAD; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result; latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design.{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'opponent_team': 'ATL', 'h2h_net_margin': -3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-27', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'ATL'}, {'date': '2026-08-26', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'ATL'}, {'date': '2026-08-25', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'ATL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 4, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 2, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20261003', 'away': 'ATL', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.546692, 'artifact': '20261003_ATL@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260827', 'away': 'LAD', 'home': 'ATL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.560841, 'artifact': '20260827_LAD@ATL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260826', 'away': 'LAD', 'home': 'ATL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5486690000000001, 'artifact': '20260826_LAD@ATL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260825', 'away': 'LAD', 'home': 'ATL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5545089999999999, 'artifact': '20260825_LAD@ATL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'LAD', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'ATL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'output_opponent_team': 'ATL', 'simulation_score_winner': 'LAD', 'final_score_winner': 'LAD', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'ATL 3 - 4 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'ATL 3 - 4 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.073, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.314, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'LAD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.3333, 'draw_majority_team': 'ATL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.6096, 'winner': 'LAD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASSmetadataDATE_PARSEDate is valid ISO format: 2026-10-04.
PASSmetadataFILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCHFilename contains game_id: filename=20261004_ATL@LAD__20261005T003846Z, game_id=20261004_ATL@LAD.
PASSmetadataFILENAME_TEAM_MATCHFilename teams match JSON teams: ATL@LAD.
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSH2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -13.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 13.0, 'home_average_margin': -2.6, 'home_run_delta': -0.075, 'away_run_delta': 0.075, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -5.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSScore distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.028222820230211776}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.0265181780356338}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.026307011487808}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.026069515180494638}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02598831593214533}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.0841529373742921, '1': 0.12208141372398842, '2': 0.15323247657232358, '3': 0.1664075752743024, '4': 0.15635665293570739, '5': 0.12711026918853163, '6': 0.08940584509052579, '7': 0.054409180861758805, '8': 0.028648340072565028, '9': 0.013051118710441978, '10': 0.005144190195562751}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.08767011620706518, '1': 0.1268741591486834, '2': 0.15808782409360952, '3': 0.16960057367394443, '4': 0.15666062760377497, '5': 0.12459369260852138, '6': 0.08531706417814217, '7': 0.050301321878038256, '8': 0.025534452110624006, '9': 0.011160337784586449, '10': 0.0041998307130102904}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.25, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSSeason/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.5802, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.664, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.6096}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSSimulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'ATL 3 - 4 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'ATL 3 - 4 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.073, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.314, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'LAD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.3333, 'draw_majority_team': 'ATL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.6096, 'winner': 'LAD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASSpipelinePIPELINE_VERSIONPrediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASSpitch_by_pitchPITCH_DETAIL_SANITYPitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASSpitch_countPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHaway pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 132.
PASSpitch_countPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHhome pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 159.
PASSpitch_countsimulationATLPITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHATL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASSpitch_countsimulationATLPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHATL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 132.
PASSpitch_countsimulationLADPITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHLAD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASSpitch_countsimulationLADPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHLAD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 159.
PASSpitcher_opponent_strengthPITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDSPitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASSpitchingPITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENTAll 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASSpitchingcurrentATLPITCHING_REALISMcurrent:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingcurrentATLSTARTER_PRESENTcurrent:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingcurrentLADPITCHING_REALISMcurrent:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingcurrentLADSTARTER_PRESENTcurrent:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingsimulationATLPITCHING_REALISMsimulation:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingsimulationATLSTARTER_PRESENTsimulation:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingsimulationLADPITCHING_REALISMsimulation:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingsimulationLADSTARTER_PRESENTsimulation:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentATLPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentATLPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentLADPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentLADPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationATLPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.1.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationATLPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationLADPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationLADPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHEnhanced AI score matches enhanced target: ATL 3 - 4 LAD.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHInning simulation score matches final score: ATL 3 - 4 LAD.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHInning simulation winner matches final score: LAD wins 4-3.
PASSprediction_comparisonSIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACESimulation decision is explicit: model=LAD, simulation=LAD, published=LAD.
PASSprobabilityCONFIDENCE_RANGEEnhanced target confidence is in range: 0.515.
PASSrecent_formRECENT_FORM_RANGEaway recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASSrecent_formRECENT_FORM_RANGEhome recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASSreportREPORT_COMPLETEAll findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASSschemaSCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENTBoth major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASSscoreGAME_SUMMARY_MATCHgame_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): LAD wins 4-3.
PASSscoreSCORE_NO_TIEFinal score has a clear winner: LAD wins 3-4.
PASSscoreSCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCHsimulation_result step matches final score: 3-4.
PASSscoreSCORE_STEP_ORDERScore evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASSscoreTARGET_SCORE_DRIFTFinal score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-4 (delta 0).
PASSscoreTOTAL_RUNS_MATCHtotal_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASSscoreWINNER_FIELD_MATCHwinner field is consistent: LAD wins 4-3.
PASSscorecross-schemaCURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIMgame.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentATLRECENT_FORM_RANGEATL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentATLTEAM_RECENT_RECORDATL wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentLADRECENT_FORM_RANGELAD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentLADTEAM_RECENT_RECORDLAD wins and win_pct agree: 8/10 = 0.800.
Info/context findings
SeverityCategorySourceTeamPlayerRuleMessageValueExpected
INFOcurrent_payloadcurrentATLCURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFOcurrent_payloadcurrentLADCURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONLAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaATLCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXATL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=31; H: current=8, sim=6; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; SO: current=10, sim=13; SF: current=0, sim=2).New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaATLCURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXATL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ronald Acuña Jr.: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Drake Baldwin: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Mauricio Dubón: SO current=1 box=2; Sean Murphy: 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Ozzie Albies: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Matt Olson: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Michael Harris II: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Austin Riley: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=2 box=1New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaLADCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXLAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=30; H: current=7, sim=5; HR: current=1, sim=2; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=7, sim=6).New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaLADCURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXLAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Shohei Ohtani: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Will Smith: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0; Freddie Freeman: R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Mookie Betts: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Miguel Rojas: H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Teoscar Hernández: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, SO current=1 box=0; Kyle Tucker: AB current=4 box=3, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Andy Pages: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFOscore_reconciliationRECONCILIATION_PROPAGATIONNo score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
Score evolution
stepaway_runshome_runsconfidencedescription
historical_ml3.875205516111485.056871594442494Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied45Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction340.515Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by opposing_starter_is_elite, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment34Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review34Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target34Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result34Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Inning-by-inning linescore
team123456789RH
ATL10000001136
LAD00010000345
Team totals - current + final simulation
srcteamtypePAABH2B3BHRRBIRBBSOSFHBPSBCSIPERBFPitches
currentATLbatting338201443100000
currentATLpitching524268.0400
currentLADbatting33710145370000
currentLADpitching6033139.0300
simulationATLbatting3162003331320
simulationATLpitching524268.1432132
simulationLADbatting305102442600
simulationLADpitching6033139.0336159
Batting lines - current + final simulation
srcteamorderposnamePAABH2B3BHRRRBIBBSOHBPAVG
currentATLRFRonald Acuña Jr.041100101100.250
currentATLCDrake Baldwin041000011100.250
currentATLSSMauricio Dubón041000000100.250
currentATLDHSean Murphy031000000100.333
currentATL2BOzzie Albies041000110100.250
currentATL1BMatt Olson041001110100.250
currentATLCFMichael Harris II041100110100.250
currentATL3BAustin Riley031000000200.333
currentATLLFLane Thomas030000001100.000
currentLADDHShohei Ohtani041001111100.250
currentLADCWill Smith041000001100.250
currentLAD1BFreddie Freeman041000000100.250
currentLADSSMookie Betts041100110000.250
currentLAD3BMiguel Rojas030000000000.000
currentLADLFTeoscar Hernández041000110100.250
currentLADRFKyle Tucker041000101100.250
currentLADCFAndy Pages031000110100.333
currentLAD2BTommy Edman030000000100.000
simulationATL1CDrake Baldwin441100000200.250
simulationATL2RFRonald Acuña Jr.431000001100.333
simulationATL31BMatt Olson431000111200.333
simulationATL42BOzzie Albies441000000200.250
simulationATL5CFMichael Harris II430000110200.000
simulationATL6SSMauricio Dubón441000000200.250
simulationATL7DHSean Murphy431100001000.333
simulationATL83BAustin Riley430000110100.000
simulationATL9LFLane Thomas440000000100.000
simulationLAD1SSMookie Betts431001111000.333
simulationLAD2DHShohei Ohtani440000000000.000
simulationLAD3CWill Smith430000001100.000
simulationLAD41BFreddie Freeman441000100200.250
simulationLAD5LFTeoscar Hernández441001130000.250
simulationLAD6RFKyle Tucker331000100200.333
simulationLAD7CFAndy Pages330000000000.000
simulationLAD83BMiguel Rojas331100000100.333
simulationLAD92BTommy Edman330000000000.000
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
srcteamordernameroleIPHRERBBSOHRBFPitchessim_ERAseason_ERAseason_WHIP
currentATL1Ray KerrStarter5.0211041001.801.250.60
currentATL2Didier FuentesSetup Man1.0100010000.002.501.11
currentATL3Raisel IglesiasCloser1.1000010000.002.471.08
currentATL6Dylan LeeMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)0.22332010040.503.010.92
currentLAD1Blake SnellStarter5.1211390001.691.901.10
currentLAD2Edwin DíazMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.0211010009.007.231.77
currentLAD3Evan PhillipsSetup Man1.1211010006.753.421.10
currentLAD4Tanner ScottCloser1.1000020000.002.941.01
simulationATL1Ray KerrStarter5.021104118771.801.250.60
simulationATL2Raisel IglesiasCloser1.10000104170.002.471.08
simulationATL3Didier FuentesSetup Man1.01000104160.002.501.11
simulationATL4Dylan LeeMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.023320162227.003.010.92
simulationLAD1Blake SnellStarter5.121139021971.691.901.10
simulationLAD2Tanner ScottCloser1.10000204170.002.941.01
simulationLAD3Evan PhillipsSetup Man1.12110106266.753.421.10
simulationLAD4Edwin DíazMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.02110105199.007.231.77
Pitch count summary
teampitcherroleIPRHBBSOBFPitches
ATLRay KerrStarter5.012041877
ATLDidier FuentesSetup Man1.00101416
ATLRaisel IglesiasCloser1.10001417
ATLDylan LeeMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.03220622
LADBlake SnellStarter5.112392197
LADEdwin DíazMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.01201519
LADEvan PhillipsSetup Man1.11201626
LADTanner ScottCloser1.10002417
Audit rule catalog
rulestatuscriticalerrorwarningpassdescription
BATTING_REALISMgood0004Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUMgood0004Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHgood0002Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHgood0002Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCHgood0002Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHgood0002Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIEDgood0001Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGEgood0005Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXinfo0002Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPEgood0002Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKgood0002Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTgood0002Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONinfo0000Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXinfo0000Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDgood0002Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIMgood0001game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSEgood0001Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCHgood0001Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCHgood0001Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICYgood0001One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_ENDING_COHERENTgood0001The inning line ends the way a real game with the published score ends.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCHgood0001game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNCgood0001Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGEgood0001Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNTgood0001Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTSnot triggered0000Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMSgood0001Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCEgood0001Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITSgood0001Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNSgood0001Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSISgood0003Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
LUNA_KPI_TRACEnot triggered0000Promoted Luna KPIs are traced per hitter and the per-game totals agree.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAILgood0001Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSgood0004H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCHgood0002Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSIONgood0001Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENTgood0001Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDSgood0001Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISMgood0004Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUMgood0008Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHgood0002Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHgood0004Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITYgood0001Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHgood0003prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
PUBLISHED_PITCHER_LINES_MATCH_BOXerror0100Published staff lines cover the outs the box recorded, extra innings included.
RECENT_FORM_RANGEgood0004Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATIONinfo0000When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETEgood0001Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORTnot triggered0000Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINALgood0002Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENTgood0001Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIEgood0001Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCHgood0001score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDERgood0001Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACEgood0001Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENTgood0004Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYSnot triggered0000Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFTgood0001Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORDgood0002team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCHgood0001total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCHgood0001winner field agrees with the final score.

20261004_SD@MIL

20261004_SD@MIL__20261004T203741Z.json • 2026-10-04

SD 4 - MIL 5
PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 104INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows
SeverityCategorySourceTeamPlayerRuleMessageValueExpected
All findings - complete audit trail
SeverityCategorySourceTeamPlayerRuleMessageValueExpected
INFOcurrent_payloadcurrentMILCURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONMIL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFOcurrent_payloadcurrentSDCURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONSD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaMILCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXMIL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=7, sim=10; 2B: current=1, sim=2; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=4, sim=1; SO: current=9, sim=7).New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaMILCURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXMIL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Brice Turang: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; William Contreras: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Jake Bauers: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, 3B current=0 box=1; Jackson Chourio: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Cooper Pratt: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Sal Frelick: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Garrett Mitchell: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Christian Yelich: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, BB current=1 box=0New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaSDCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXSD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=30; H: current=7, sim=3; R: current=5, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=12).New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaSDCURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXSD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ty France: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Manny Machado: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Gavin Sheets: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Dustin Harris: RBI current=0 box=2; Fernando Tatis Jr.: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jackson Merrill: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Xander Bogaerts: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Luis Campusano: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFOscore_reconciliationRECONCILIATION_PROPAGATIONNo score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASSbattingcurrentMILBATTING_REALISMcurrent:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingcurrentSDBATTING_REALISMcurrent:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingsimulationMILBATTING_REALISMsimulation:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingsimulationSDBATTING_REALISMsimulation:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbatting_totalscurrentMILBATTING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalscurrentSDBATTING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalssimulationMILBATTING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalssimulationSDBATTING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationMILBAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHsimulation:MIL batting walks match SD pitching: 1.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationMILBAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHsimulation:MIL batting home runs match SD pitching: 1.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationMILBAT_PITCH_H_MATCHsimulation:MIL batting hits match SD pitching: 10.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationMILBAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHsimulation:MIL batting strikeouts match SD pitching: 7.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationMILPA_BF_MATCHsimulation:MIL PA=35 matches SD BF=35.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationMILRUNS_MATCH_FINALsimulation:MIL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationSDBAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHsimulation:SD batting walks match MIL pitching: 3.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationSDBAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHsimulation:SD batting home runs match MIL pitching: 1.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationSDBAT_PITCH_H_MATCHsimulation:SD batting hits match MIL pitching: 3.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationSDBAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHsimulation:SD batting strikeouts match MIL pitching: 12.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationSDPA_BF_MATCHsimulation:SD PA=33 matches MIL BF=33.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationSDRUNS_MATCH_FINALsimulation:SD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASSconfidence_calibrationCONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIEDEmpirical confidence blend verified: 0.578 -> 0.579 at weight 0.500.{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.578158, 'sample_size': 437, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5789, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.578529, 'published_confidence': 0.553789, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASScross_schemacross-schemaMILCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXMIL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASScross_schemacross-schemaSDCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXSD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentMILCURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPEMIL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentMILCURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKMIL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentMILCURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTMIL current hitter names are populated.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentMILCURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDMIL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentSDCURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPESD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentSDCURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKSD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentSDCURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTSD current hitter names are populated.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentSDCURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDSD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASSdata_leakageH2H_DATA_LEAKAGEAll head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEHome + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEaway_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.446.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEconfidence is in [0,1]: 0.554.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEhome_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.554.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISFinal total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISLow-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISLow-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.676/0.893.
PASSfinal_decisionFINAL_DECISION_POLICYFinal decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASSinningsGAME_ENDING_COHERENTThe game ends coherently for its score.
PASSinningsINNINGS_COUNTinning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASSinningsINNING_OUTSInning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASSinningsINNING_PLAY_SUMSDetailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASSinningsINNING_SEQUENCEInning numbers are sequential.
PASSinningsINNING_TOTAL_HITSInning hits match batting totals: SD 3, MIL 10.
PASSinningsINNING_TOTAL_RUNSInning runs sum to final score: SD 4 - MIL 5.
PASSmatchup_recencyGUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNCGuardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIL.
PASSmatchup_recencyMATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAILNo stale repeat-pick pattern detected for MIL.{'winner_confidence': 0.5537894025, 'h2h_net_margin': -11, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 4, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20261003', 'away': 'SD', 'home': 'MIL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20261003_SD@MIL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260812', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'SD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SD', 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260812_MIL@SD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260811', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'SD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 9, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51256, 'artifact': '20260811_MIL@SD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260810', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'SD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.6, 'artifact': '20260810_MIL@SD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}}
PASSmetadataDATE_PARSEDate is valid ISO format: 2026-10-04.
PASSmetadataFILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCHFilename contains game_id: filename=20261004_SD@MIL__20261004T203741Z, game_id=20261004_SD@MIL.
PASSmetadataFILENAME_TEAM_MATCHFilename teams match JSON teams: SD@MIL.
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSH2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -7.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 7.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.4, 'home_run_delta': -0.0404, 'away_run_delta': 0.0404, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -9.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 6.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSScore distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01951804457688806}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.0194654955380338}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.01896005841534769}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.018909011660001772}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.017843640828593545}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.0495064378502637, '1': 0.07346909897918259, '2': 0.09871752985077217, '3': 0.12009650712701961, '4': 0.1322857318567977, '5': 0.1319295748639277, '6': 0.11912909770342466, '7': 0.09739576490685303, '8': 0.07209561052174608, '9': 0.04831968627849282, '10': 0.029321482112307024, '11': 0.016109952597631975, '12': 0.008013996291812242, '13': 0.003609529059768694}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.06445252855479482, '1': 0.0947294456992689, '2': 0.12364614055302993, '3': 0.14332655645638626, '4': 0.14754459383432814, '5': 0.13488711577685256, '6': 0.10951362847898655, '7': 0.07896168391257363, '8': 0.05056094320504607, '9': 0.028751762044095786, '10': 0.014519922444994893, '11': 0.006512004030580646, '12': 0.002593675009061732}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.25, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSSeason/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 1.179, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.124, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.723}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSSimulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'SD 4 - 5 MIL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'SD 4 - 5 MIL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0331, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.334, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'MIL', 'model_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'MIL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.723, 'winner': 'MIL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASSpipelinePIPELINE_VERSIONPrediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASSpitch_by_pitchPITCH_DETAIL_SANITYPitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASSpitch_countPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHaway pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 137.
PASSpitch_countPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHhome pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 136.
PASSpitch_countsimulationMILPITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHMIL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASSpitch_countsimulationMILPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHMIL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 136.
PASSpitch_countsimulationSDPITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHSD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASSpitch_countsimulationSDPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHSD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 137.
PASSpitcher_opponent_strengthPITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDSPitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASSpitchingPITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENTAll 7 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASSpitchingPUBLISHED_PITCHER_LINES_MATCH_BOXPublished pitcher lines cover the outs the box recorded.
PASSpitchingcurrentMILPITCHING_REALISMcurrent:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingcurrentMILSTARTER_PRESENTcurrent:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingcurrentSDPITCHING_REALISMcurrent:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingcurrentSDSTARTER_PRESENTcurrent:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingsimulationMILPITCHING_REALISMsimulation:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingsimulationMILSTARTER_PRESENTsimulation:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingsimulationSDPITCHING_REALISMsimulation:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingsimulationSDSTARTER_PRESENTsimulation:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentMILPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentMILPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentSDPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentSDPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationMILPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationMILPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationSDPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationSDPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHEnhanced AI score matches enhanced target: SD 4 - 5 MIL.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHInning simulation score matches final score: SD 4 - 5 MIL.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHInning simulation winner matches final score: MIL wins 5-4.
PASSprediction_comparisonSIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACESimulation decision is explicit: model=MIL, simulation=MIL, published=MIL.
PASSprobabilityCONFIDENCE_RANGEEnhanced target confidence is in range: 0.554.
PASSrecent_formRECENT_FORM_RANGEaway recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASSrecent_formRECENT_FORM_RANGEhome recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASSreportREPORT_COMPLETEAll findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASSschemaSCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENTBoth major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASSscoreGAME_SUMMARY_MATCHgame_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): MIL wins 5-4.
PASSscoreSCORE_NO_TIEFinal score has a clear winner: MIL wins 4-5.
PASSscoreSCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCHsimulation_result step matches final score: 4-5.
PASSscoreSCORE_STEP_ORDERScore evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASSscoreTARGET_SCORE_DRIFTFinal score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0).
PASSscoreTOTAL_RUNS_MATCHtotal_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASSscoreWINNER_FIELD_MATCHwinner field is consistent: MIL wins 5-4.
PASSscorecross-schemaCURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIMgame.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentMILRECENT_FORM_RANGEMIL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentMILTEAM_RECENT_RECORDMIL wins and win_pct agree: 9/10 = 0.900.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentSDRECENT_FORM_RANGESD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentSDTEAM_RECENT_RECORDSD wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.
Passed checks
SeverityCategorySourceTeamPlayerRuleMessageValueExpected
PASSbattingcurrentMILBATTING_REALISMcurrent:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingcurrentSDBATTING_REALISMcurrent:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingsimulationMILBATTING_REALISMsimulation:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingsimulationSDBATTING_REALISMsimulation:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbatting_totalscurrentMILBATTING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalscurrentSDBATTING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalssimulationMILBATTING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalssimulationSDBATTING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationMILBAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHsimulation:MIL batting walks match SD pitching: 1.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationMILBAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHsimulation:MIL batting home runs match SD pitching: 1.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationMILBAT_PITCH_H_MATCHsimulation:MIL batting hits match SD pitching: 10.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationMILBAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHsimulation:MIL batting strikeouts match SD pitching: 7.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationMILPA_BF_MATCHsimulation:MIL PA=35 matches SD BF=35.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationMILRUNS_MATCH_FINALsimulation:MIL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationSDBAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHsimulation:SD batting walks match MIL pitching: 3.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationSDBAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHsimulation:SD batting home runs match MIL pitching: 1.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationSDBAT_PITCH_H_MATCHsimulation:SD batting hits match MIL pitching: 3.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationSDBAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHsimulation:SD batting strikeouts match MIL pitching: 12.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationSDPA_BF_MATCHsimulation:SD PA=33 matches MIL BF=33.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationSDRUNS_MATCH_FINALsimulation:SD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASSconfidence_calibrationCONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIEDEmpirical confidence blend verified: 0.578 -> 0.579 at weight 0.500.{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.578158, 'sample_size': 437, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5789, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.578529, 'published_confidence': 0.553789, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASScross_schemacross-schemaMILCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXMIL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASScross_schemacross-schemaSDCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXSD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentMILCURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPEMIL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentMILCURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKMIL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentMILCURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTMIL current hitter names are populated.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentMILCURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDMIL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentSDCURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPESD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentSDCURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKSD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentSDCURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTSD current hitter names are populated.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentSDCURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDSD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASSdata_leakageH2H_DATA_LEAKAGEAll head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEHome + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEaway_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.446.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEconfidence is in [0,1]: 0.554.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEhome_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.554.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISFinal total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISLow-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISLow-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.676/0.893.
PASSfinal_decisionFINAL_DECISION_POLICYFinal decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASSinningsGAME_ENDING_COHERENTThe game ends coherently for its score.
PASSinningsINNINGS_COUNTinning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASSinningsINNING_OUTSInning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASSinningsINNING_PLAY_SUMSDetailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASSinningsINNING_SEQUENCEInning numbers are sequential.
PASSinningsINNING_TOTAL_HITSInning hits match batting totals: SD 3, MIL 10.
PASSinningsINNING_TOTAL_RUNSInning runs sum to final score: SD 4 - MIL 5.
PASSmatchup_recencyGUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNCGuardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIL.
PASSmatchup_recencyMATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAILNo stale repeat-pick pattern detected for MIL.{'winner_confidence': 0.5537894025, 'h2h_net_margin': -11, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 4, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20261003', 'away': 'SD', 'home': 'MIL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20261003_SD@MIL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260812', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'SD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SD', 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260812_MIL@SD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260811', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'SD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 9, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51256, 'artifact': '20260811_MIL@SD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260810', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'SD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.6, 'artifact': '20260810_MIL@SD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}}
PASSmetadataDATE_PARSEDate is valid ISO format: 2026-10-04.
PASSmetadataFILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCHFilename contains game_id: filename=20261004_SD@MIL__20261004T203741Z, game_id=20261004_SD@MIL.
PASSmetadataFILENAME_TEAM_MATCHFilename teams match JSON teams: SD@MIL.
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSH2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -7.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 7.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.4, 'home_run_delta': -0.0404, 'away_run_delta': 0.0404, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -9.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 6.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSScore distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01951804457688806}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.0194654955380338}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.01896005841534769}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.018909011660001772}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.017843640828593545}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.0495064378502637, '1': 0.07346909897918259, '2': 0.09871752985077217, '3': 0.12009650712701961, '4': 0.1322857318567977, '5': 0.1319295748639277, '6': 0.11912909770342466, '7': 0.09739576490685303, '8': 0.07209561052174608, '9': 0.04831968627849282, '10': 0.029321482112307024, '11': 0.016109952597631975, '12': 0.008013996291812242, '13': 0.003609529059768694}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.06445252855479482, '1': 0.0947294456992689, '2': 0.12364614055302993, '3': 0.14332655645638626, '4': 0.14754459383432814, '5': 0.13488711577685256, '6': 0.10951362847898655, '7': 0.07896168391257363, '8': 0.05056094320504607, '9': 0.028751762044095786, '10': 0.014519922444994893, '11': 0.006512004030580646, '12': 0.002593675009061732}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.25, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSSeason/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 1.179, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.124, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.723}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSSimulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'SD 4 - 5 MIL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'SD 4 - 5 MIL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0331, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.334, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'MIL', 'model_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'MIL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.723, 'winner': 'MIL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASSpipelinePIPELINE_VERSIONPrediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASSpitch_by_pitchPITCH_DETAIL_SANITYPitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASSpitch_countPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHaway pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 137.
PASSpitch_countPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHhome pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 136.
PASSpitch_countsimulationMILPITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHMIL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASSpitch_countsimulationMILPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHMIL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 136.
PASSpitch_countsimulationSDPITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHSD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASSpitch_countsimulationSDPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHSD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 137.
PASSpitcher_opponent_strengthPITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDSPitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASSpitchingPITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENTAll 7 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASSpitchingPUBLISHED_PITCHER_LINES_MATCH_BOXPublished pitcher lines cover the outs the box recorded.
PASSpitchingcurrentMILPITCHING_REALISMcurrent:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingcurrentMILSTARTER_PRESENTcurrent:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingcurrentSDPITCHING_REALISMcurrent:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingcurrentSDSTARTER_PRESENTcurrent:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingsimulationMILPITCHING_REALISMsimulation:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingsimulationMILSTARTER_PRESENTsimulation:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingsimulationSDPITCHING_REALISMsimulation:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingsimulationSDSTARTER_PRESENTsimulation:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentMILPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentMILPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentSDPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentSDPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationMILPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationMILPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationSDPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationSDPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHEnhanced AI score matches enhanced target: SD 4 - 5 MIL.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHInning simulation score matches final score: SD 4 - 5 MIL.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHInning simulation winner matches final score: MIL wins 5-4.
PASSprediction_comparisonSIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACESimulation decision is explicit: model=MIL, simulation=MIL, published=MIL.
PASSprobabilityCONFIDENCE_RANGEEnhanced target confidence is in range: 0.554.
PASSrecent_formRECENT_FORM_RANGEaway recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASSrecent_formRECENT_FORM_RANGEhome recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASSreportREPORT_COMPLETEAll findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASSschemaSCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENTBoth major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASSscoreGAME_SUMMARY_MATCHgame_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): MIL wins 5-4.
PASSscoreSCORE_NO_TIEFinal score has a clear winner: MIL wins 4-5.
PASSscoreSCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCHsimulation_result step matches final score: 4-5.
PASSscoreSCORE_STEP_ORDERScore evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASSscoreTARGET_SCORE_DRIFTFinal score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0).
PASSscoreTOTAL_RUNS_MATCHtotal_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASSscoreWINNER_FIELD_MATCHwinner field is consistent: MIL wins 5-4.
PASSscorecross-schemaCURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIMgame.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentMILRECENT_FORM_RANGEMIL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentMILTEAM_RECENT_RECORDMIL wins and win_pct agree: 9/10 = 0.900.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentSDRECENT_FORM_RANGESD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentSDTEAM_RECENT_RECORDSD wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.
Info/context findings
SeverityCategorySourceTeamPlayerRuleMessageValueExpected
INFOcurrent_payloadcurrentMILCURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONMIL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFOcurrent_payloadcurrentSDCURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONSD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaMILCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXMIL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=7, sim=10; 2B: current=1, sim=2; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=4, sim=1; SO: current=9, sim=7).New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaMILCURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXMIL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Brice Turang: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; William Contreras: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Jake Bauers: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, 3B current=0 box=1; Jackson Chourio: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Cooper Pratt: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Sal Frelick: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Garrett Mitchell: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Christian Yelich: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, BB current=1 box=0New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaSDCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXSD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=30; H: current=7, sim=3; R: current=5, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=12).New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaSDCURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXSD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ty France: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Manny Machado: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Gavin Sheets: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Dustin Harris: RBI current=0 box=2; Fernando Tatis Jr.: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jackson Merrill: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Xander Bogaerts: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Luis Campusano: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFOscore_reconciliationRECONCILIATION_PROPAGATIONNo score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
Score evolution
stepaway_runshome_runsconfidencedescription
historical_ml3.8064065257608925.00975768773032Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied45Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction450.554Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, season_quality_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment45Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review45Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target45Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result45Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Inning-by-inning linescore
team123456789RH
SD20020000043
MIL020000030510
Team totals - current + final simulation
srcteamtypePAABH2B3BHRRBIRBBSOSFHBPSBCSIPERBFPitches
currentSDbatting33710145390000
currentSDpitching1015178.0500
currentMILbatting33710145490000
currentMILpitching3143129.0400
simulationSDbatting3031014431200
simulationSDpitching1015178.0535137
simulationMILbatting3410211551700
simulationMILpitching3143129.0433136
Batting lines - current + final simulation
srcteamorderposnamePAABH2B3BHRRRBIBBSOHBPAVG
currentSD1BTy France041000010100.250
currentSD3BManny Machado041001111100.250
currentSDDHGavin Sheets030000000100.000
currentSDLFDustin Harris041000100100.250
currentSDRFFernando Tatis Jr.041100110100.250
currentSDCFJackson Merrill041000110100.250
currentSDSSXander Bogaerts031000101100.333
currentSD2BJake Cronenworth030000000100.000
currentSDCLuis Campusano041000001100.250
currentMIL2BBrice Turang041100111100.250
currentMILCWilliam Contreras041000010100.250
currentMIL1BJake Bauers041000111100.250
currentMILLFJackson Chourio041001110100.250
currentMILSSCooper Pratt030000000100.000
currentMILRFSal Frelick031000000100.333
currentMILCFGarrett Mitchell041000101100.250
currentMILDHChristian Yelich041000101100.250
currentMIL3BDavid Hamilton030000000100.000
simulationSD1RFFernando Tatis Jr.440000000100.000
simulationSD2LFDustin Harris441000120100.250
simulationSD33BManny Machado430000101200.000
simulationSD41BTy France430000001300.000
simulationSD5CFJackson Merrill441001120200.250
simulationSD6DHGavin Sheets430000001000.000
simulationSD7SSXander Bogaerts330000000200.000
simulationSD8CLuis Campusano331100100000.333
simulationSD92BJake Cronenworth330000000100.000
simulationMIL1LFJackson Chourio441000100100.250
simulationMIL22BBrice Turang440000000100.000
simulationMIL31BJake Bauers432110101000.667
simulationMIL4CWilliam Contreras441000000300.250
simulationMIL5CFGarrett Mitchell442000110000.500
simulationMIL6DHChristian Yelich441001120100.250
simulationMIL7RFSal Frelick442100120000.500
simulationMIL8SSCooper Pratt440000000000.000
simulationMIL93BDavid Hamilton331000000100.333
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
srcteamordernameroleIPHRERBBSOHRBFPitchessim_ERAseason_ERAseason_WHIP
currentSD1Michael KingStarter6.0622051003.003.091.16
currentSD2Mason MillerCloser1.2100010000.001.650.90
currentSD4Adrian MorejonSetup Man0.13331100081.002.801.08
currentMIL1Logan HendersonStarter6.0233181004.502.470.84
currentMIL2Aaron AshbyMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.0111120009.003.071.29
currentMIL3Abner UribeSetup Man1.0000000000.001.961.06
currentMIL4Trevor MegillCloser1.0000120000.002.000.86
simulationSD1Michael KingStarter6.062205124963.003.091.16
simulationSD2Mason MillerCloser1.21000106240.001.650.90
simulationSD3Adrian MorejonSetup Man0.133311051781.002.801.08
simulationMIL1Logan HendersonStarter6.023318121864.502.470.84
simulationMIL2Trevor MegillCloser1.00001204170.002.000.86
simulationMIL3Abner UribeSetup Man1.00000003130.001.961.06
simulationMIL4Aaron AshbyMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.01111205209.003.071.29
Pitch count summary
teampitcherroleIPRHBBSOBFPitches
SDMichael KingStarter6.026052496
SDMason MillerCloser1.20101624
SDAdrian MorejonSetup Man0.13311517
MILLogan HendersonStarter6.032182186
MILAaron AshbyMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.01112520
MILAbner UribeSetup Man1.00000313
MILTrevor MegillCloser1.00012417
Audit rule catalog
rulestatuscriticalerrorwarningpassdescription
BATTING_REALISMgood0004Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUMgood0004Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHgood0002Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHgood0002Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCHgood0002Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHgood0002Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIEDgood0001Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGEgood0005Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXinfo0002Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPEgood0002Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKgood0002Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTgood0002Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONinfo0000Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXinfo0000Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDgood0002Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIMgood0001game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSEgood0001Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCHgood0001Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCHgood0001Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICYgood0001One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_ENDING_COHERENTgood0001The inning line ends the way a real game with the published score ends.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCHgood0001game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNCgood0001Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGEgood0001Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNTgood0001Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTSgood0001Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMSgood0001Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCEgood0001Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITSgood0001Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNSgood0001Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSISgood0003Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
LUNA_KPI_TRACEnot triggered0000Promoted Luna KPIs are traced per hitter and the per-game totals agree.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAILgood0001Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSgood0004H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCHgood0002Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSIONgood0001Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENTgood0001Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDSgood0001Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISMgood0004Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUMgood0008Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHgood0002Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHgood0004Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITYgood0001Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHgood0003prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
PUBLISHED_PITCHER_LINES_MATCH_BOXgood0001Published staff lines cover the outs the box recorded, extra innings included.
RECENT_FORM_RANGEgood0004Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATIONinfo0000When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETEgood0001Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORTnot triggered0000Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINALgood0002Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENTgood0001Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIEgood0001Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCHgood0001score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDERgood0001Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACEgood0001Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENTgood0004Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYSnot triggered0000Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFTgood0001Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORDgood0002team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCHgood0001total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCHgood0001winner field agrees with the final score.