MLB JSON Audit Report

20261004_ATL@LAD

20261004_ATL@LAD.json • 2026-10-04

ATL 3 - LAD 4

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=31; H: current=8, sim=6; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; SO: current=10, sim=13; SF: current=0, sim=2).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ATL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ronald Acuña Jr.: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Ozzie Albies: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Mauricio Dubón: SO current=1 box=2; Matt Olson: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Drake Baldwin: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Sean Murphy: 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Michael Harris II: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Lane Thomas: AB current=3 box=4, BB current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=30; H: current=7, sim=5; HR: current=1, sim=2; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=7, sim=6).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Shohei Ohtani: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Teoscar Hernández: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, SO current=1 box=0; Freddie Freeman: R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Will Smith: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0; Miguel Rojas: H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Mookie Betts: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Kyle Tucker: AB current=4 box=3, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Andy Pages: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	current:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting walks match LAD pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting home runs match LAD pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting hits match LAD pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting strikeouts match LAD pitching: 13.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ATL PA=36 matches LAD BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ATL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting walks match ATL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting home runs match ATL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting hits match ATL pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting strikeouts match ATL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAD PA=32 matches ATL BF=32.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.510 -> 0.543 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5101, 'sample_size': 482, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5768, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.54345, 'published_confidence': 0.514946, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ATL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ATL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ATL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ATL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.485.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.515.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.515.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.730/0.900.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: ATL 6, LAD 5.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: ATL 3 - LAD 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAD.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for LAD; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result; latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'opponent_team': 'ATL', 'h2h_net_margin': -3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-27', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'ATL'}, {'date': '2026-08-26', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'ATL'}, {'date': '2026-08-25', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'ATL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 4, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 2, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20261003', 'away': 'ATL', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.546692, 'artifact': '20261003_ATL@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260827', 'away': 'LAD', 'home': 'ATL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.560841, 'artifact': '20260827_LAD@ATL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260826', 'away': 'LAD', 'home': 'ATL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5486690000000001, 'artifact': '20260826_LAD@ATL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260825', 'away': 'LAD', 'home': 'ATL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5545089999999999, 'artifact': '20260825_LAD@ATL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'LAD', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'ATL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'output_opponent_team': 'ATL', 'simulation_score_winner': 'LAD', 'final_score_winner': 'LAD', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'ATL 3 - 4 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'ATL 3 - 4 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.073, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.314, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'LAD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.3333, 'draw_majority_team': 'ATL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.6096, 'winner': 'LAD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-10-04.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20261004_ATL@LAD.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: ATL@LAD.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -13.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 13.0, 'home_average_margin': -2.6, 'home_run_delta': -0.075, 'away_run_delta': 0.075, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -5.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.028222820230211776}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.0265181780356338}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.026307011487808}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.026069515180494638}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02598831593214533}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.0841529373742921, '1': 0.12208141372398842, '2': 0.15323247657232358, '3': 0.1664075752743024, '4': 0.15635665293570739, '5': 0.12711026918853163, '6': 0.08940584509052579, '7': 0.054409180861758805, '8': 0.028648340072565028, '9': 0.013051118710441978, '10': 0.005144190195562751}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.08767011620706518, '1': 0.1268741591486834, '2': 0.15808782409360952, '3': 0.16960057367394443, '4': 0.15666062760377497, '5': 0.12459369260852138, '6': 0.08531706417814217, '7': 0.050301321878038256, '8': 0.025534452110624006, '9': 0.011160337784586449, '10': 0.0041998307130102904}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.25, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.5802, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.664, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.6096}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'ATL 3 - 4 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'ATL 3 - 4 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.073, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.314, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'LAD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.3333, 'draw_majority_team': 'ATL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.6096, 'winner': 'LAD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 132.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 159.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 132.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 159.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.1.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: ATL 3 - 4 LAD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: ATL 3 - 4 LAD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: LAD wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=LAD, simulation=LAD, published=LAD.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.515.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): LAD wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: LAD wins 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: LAD wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ATL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ATL wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAD wins and win_pct agree: 8/10 = 0.800.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	current:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting walks match LAD pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting home runs match LAD pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting hits match LAD pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting strikeouts match LAD pitching: 13.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ATL PA=36 matches LAD BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ATL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting walks match ATL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting home runs match ATL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting hits match ATL pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting strikeouts match ATL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAD PA=32 matches ATL BF=32.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.510 -> 0.543 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5101, 'sample_size': 482, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5768, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.54345, 'published_confidence': 0.514946, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ATL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ATL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ATL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ATL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.485.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.515.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.515.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.730/0.900.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: ATL 6, LAD 5.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: ATL 3 - LAD 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAD.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for LAD; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result; latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'opponent_team': 'ATL', 'h2h_net_margin': -3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-27', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'ATL'}, {'date': '2026-08-26', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'ATL'}, {'date': '2026-08-25', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'ATL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 4, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 2, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20261003', 'away': 'ATL', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.546692, 'artifact': '20261003_ATL@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260827', 'away': 'LAD', 'home': 'ATL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.560841, 'artifact': '20260827_LAD@ATL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260826', 'away': 'LAD', 'home': 'ATL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5486690000000001, 'artifact': '20260826_LAD@ATL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260825', 'away': 'LAD', 'home': 'ATL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5545089999999999, 'artifact': '20260825_LAD@ATL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'LAD', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'ATL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'output_opponent_team': 'ATL', 'simulation_score_winner': 'LAD', 'final_score_winner': 'LAD', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'ATL 3 - 4 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'ATL 3 - 4 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.073, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.314, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'LAD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.3333, 'draw_majority_team': 'ATL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.6096, 'winner': 'LAD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-10-04.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20261004_ATL@LAD.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: ATL@LAD.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -13.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 13.0, 'home_average_margin': -2.6, 'home_run_delta': -0.075, 'away_run_delta': 0.075, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -5.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.028222820230211776}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.0265181780356338}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.026307011487808}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.026069515180494638}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02598831593214533}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.0841529373742921, '1': 0.12208141372398842, '2': 0.15323247657232358, '3': 0.1664075752743024, '4': 0.15635665293570739, '5': 0.12711026918853163, '6': 0.08940584509052579, '7': 0.054409180861758805, '8': 0.028648340072565028, '9': 0.013051118710441978, '10': 0.005144190195562751}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.08767011620706518, '1': 0.1268741591486834, '2': 0.15808782409360952, '3': 0.16960057367394443, '4': 0.15666062760377497, '5': 0.12459369260852138, '6': 0.08531706417814217, '7': 0.050301321878038256, '8': 0.025534452110624006, '9': 0.011160337784586449, '10': 0.0041998307130102904}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.25, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.5802, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.664, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.6096}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'ATL 3 - 4 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'ATL 3 - 4 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.073, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.314, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'LAD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.3333, 'draw_majority_team': 'ATL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.6096, 'winner': 'LAD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 132.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 159.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 132.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 159.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.1.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: ATL 3 - 4 LAD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: ATL 3 - 4 LAD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: LAD wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=LAD, simulation=LAD, published=LAD.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.515.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): LAD wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: LAD wins 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: LAD wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ATL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ATL wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAD wins and win_pct agree: 8/10 = 0.800.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=31; H: current=8, sim=6; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; SO: current=10, sim=13; SF: current=0, sim=2).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ATL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ronald Acuña Jr.: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Ozzie Albies: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Mauricio Dubón: SO current=1 box=2; Matt Olson: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Drake Baldwin: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Sean Murphy: 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Michael Harris II: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Lane Thomas: AB current=3 box=4, BB current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=30; H: current=7, sim=5; HR: current=1, sim=2; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=7, sim=6).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Shohei Ohtani: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Teoscar Hernández: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, SO current=1 box=0; Freddie Freeman: R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Will Smith: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0; Miguel Rojas: H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Mookie Betts: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Kyle Tucker: AB current=4 box=3, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Andy Pages: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	3.87520551611148	5.056871594442494		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	5		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3	4	0.515	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by opposing_starter_is_elite, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3	4		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
ATL	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	3	6
LAD	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	3	4	5

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	ATL	batting	33	8	2	0	1	4	4	3	10	0	0	0	0
current	ATL	pitching		5			2		4	2	6					8.0	4	0	0
current	LAD	batting	33	7	1	0	1	4	5	3	7	0	0	0	0
current	LAD	pitching		6			0		3	3	13					9.0	3	0	0
simulation	ATL	batting	31	6	2	0	0	3	3	3	13	2	0
simulation	ATL	pitching		5			2		4	2	6					8.1	4	32	132
simulation	LAD	batting	30	5	1	0	2	4	4	2	6	0	0
simulation	LAD	pitching		6			0		3	3	13					9.0	3	36	159

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	ATL		RF	Ronald Acuña Jr.	0	4	1	1	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	ATL		2B	Ozzie Albies	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	ATL		SS	Mauricio Dubón	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	ATL		1B	Matt Olson	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	ATL		C	Drake Baldwin	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0.250
current	ATL		DH	Sean Murphy	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	ATL		CF	Michael Harris II	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	ATL		LF	Lane Thomas	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
current	ATL		3B	Austin Riley	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.333
current	LAD		DH	Shohei Ohtani	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	LAD		LF	Teoscar Hernández	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	LAD		1B	Freddie Freeman	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	LAD		C	Will Smith	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.250
current	LAD		3B	Miguel Rojas	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
current	LAD		SS	Mookie Betts	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	0.250
current	LAD		RF	Kyle Tucker	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	LAD		CF	Andy Pages	0	3	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.333
current	LAD		2B	Tommy Edman	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	ATL	1	C	Drake Baldwin	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	2	0.250
simulation	ATL	2	RF	Ronald Acuña Jr.	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.333
simulation	ATL	3	1B	Matt Olson	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	1	2	0.333
simulation	ATL	4	2B	Ozzie Albies	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.250
simulation	ATL	5	CF	Michael Harris II	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	0.000
simulation	ATL	6	SS	Mauricio Dubón	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.250
simulation	ATL	7	DH	Sean Murphy	4	3	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	ATL	8	3B	Austin Riley	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.000
simulation	ATL	9	LF	Lane Thomas	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	LAD	1	SS	Mookie Betts	4	3	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	LAD	2	DH	Shohei Ohtani	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	LAD	3	C	Will Smith	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	LAD	4	1B	Freddie Freeman	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	2	0.250
simulation	LAD	5	LF	Teoscar Hernández	4	4	1	0	1	1	3	0	0	0.250
simulation	LAD	6	RF	Kyle Tucker	3	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	2	0.333
simulation	LAD	7	CF	Andy Pages	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	LAD	8	3B	Miguel Rojas	3	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	LAD	9	2B	Tommy Edman	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	ATL	1	Ray Kerr	Starter	5.0	2	1	1	0	4	1	0	0	1.80	1.25	0.60
current	ATL	2	Didier Fuentes	Setup Man	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.50	1.11
current	ATL	3	Raisel Iglesias	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.47	1.08
current	ATL	6	Dylan Lee	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	2	3	3	2	0	1	0	0	40.50	3.01	0.92
current	LAD	1	Blake Snell	Starter	5.1	2	1	1	3	9	0	0	0	1.69	1.90	1.10
current	LAD	2	Edwin Díaz	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	9.00	7.23	1.77
current	LAD	3	Evan Phillips	Setup Man	1.1	2	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	6.75	3.42	1.10
current	LAD	4	Tanner Scott	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.94	1.01
simulation	ATL	1	Ray Kerr	Starter	5.0	2	1	1	0	4	1	18	77	1.80	1.25	0.60
simulation	ATL	2	Raisel Iglesias	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	17	0.00	2.47	1.08
simulation	ATL	3	Didier Fuentes	Setup Man	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	4	16	0.00	2.50	1.11
simulation	ATL	4	Dylan Lee	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	3	3	2	0	1	6	22	27.00	3.01	0.92
simulation	LAD	1	Blake Snell	Starter	5.1	2	1	1	3	9	0	21	97	1.69	1.90	1.10
simulation	LAD	2	Tanner Scott	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	4	17	0.00	2.94	1.01
simulation	LAD	3	Evan Phillips	Setup Man	1.1	2	1	1	0	1	0	6	26	6.75	3.42	1.10
simulation	LAD	4	Edwin Díaz	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	0	5	19	9.00	7.23	1.77

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
ATL	Ray Kerr	Starter	5.0	1	2	0	4	18	77
ATL	Didier Fuentes	Setup Man	1.0	0	1	0	1	4	16
ATL	Raisel Iglesias	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	1	4	17
ATL	Dylan Lee	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	3	2	2	0	6	22
LAD	Blake Snell	Starter	5.1	1	2	3	9	21	97
LAD	Edwin Díaz	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	2	0	1	5	19
LAD	Evan Phillips	Setup Man	1.1	1	2	0	1	6	26
LAD	Tanner Scott	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	2	4	17

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20261004_SD@MIL

20261004_SD@MIL.json • 2026-10-04

SD 4 - MIL 5