MLB JSON Audit Report

Generated 2026-10-06 14:29:23. This single HTML file audits only the selected game date. The default view focuses on actionable problems first; detailed checks, passed checks, batting, pitching, pitch counts, and the rule catalog stay available in collapsible sections.

0Critical
2Error
0Warn
412Pass
29Info

20261003_ATL@LAD

20261003_ATL@LAD__20261003T203748Z.json • 2026-10-03

ATL 4 - LAD 5
PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 103INFO 8

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows
SeverityCategorySourceTeamPlayerRuleMessageValueExpected
All findings - complete audit trail
SeverityCategorySourceTeamPlayerRuleMessageValueExpected
INFOcurrent_payloadcurrentATLCURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFOcurrent_payloadcurrentLADCURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONLAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaATLCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXATL model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=4, sim=5).New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaATLCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXATL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=36; H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=1, sim=0; 3B: current=0, sim=2; BB: current=2, sim=3; SO: current=10, sim=9; HBP: current=0, sim=2).New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaATLCURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXATL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Drake Baldwin: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Matt Olson: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=0 box=1; Michael Harris II: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Ronald Acuña Jr.: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Ozzie Albies: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Mauricio Dubón: H current=1 box=2, 3B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Sean Murphy: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Austin Riley: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=2 box=1New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaLADCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXLAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=30; H: current=7, sim=6; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=9).New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaLADCURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXLAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Shohei Ohtani: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Will Smith: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Mookie Betts: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Teoscar Hernández: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Freddie Freeman: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Tommy Edman: AB current=3 box=2, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Andy Pages: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Kyle Tucker: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFOscore_reconciliationRECONCILIATION_PROPAGATIONNo score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASSbattingcurrentATLBATTING_REALISMcurrent:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingcurrentLADBATTING_REALISMcurrent:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingsimulationATLBATTING_REALISMsimulation:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingsimulationLADBATTING_REALISMsimulation:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbatting_totalscurrentATLBATTING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalscurrentLADBATTING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalssimulationATLBATTING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalssimulationLADBATTING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationATLBAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHsimulation:ATL batting walks match LAD pitching: 3.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationATLBAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHsimulation:ATL batting home runs match LAD pitching: 1.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationATLBAT_PITCH_H_MATCHsimulation:ATL batting hits match LAD pitching: 9.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationATLBAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHsimulation:ATL batting strikeouts match LAD pitching: 9.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationATLPA_BF_MATCHsimulation:ATL PA=41 matches LAD BF=41.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationATLRUNS_MATCH_FINALsimulation:ATL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationLADBAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHsimulation:LAD batting walks match ATL pitching: 5.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationLADBAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHsimulation:LAD batting home runs match ATL pitching: 2.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationLADBAT_PITCH_H_MATCHsimulation:LAD batting hits match ATL pitching: 6.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationLADBAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHsimulation:LAD batting strikeouts match ATL pitching: 9.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationLADPA_BF_MATCHsimulation:LAD PA=35 matches ATL BF=35.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationLADRUNS_MATCH_FINALsimulation:LAD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASSconfidence_calibrationCONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIEDEmpirical confidence blend verified: 0.598 -> 0.590 at weight 0.500.{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.597692, 'sample_size': 459, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5817, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.589696, 'published_confidence': 0.546692, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASScross_schemacross-schemaLADCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXLAD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentATLCURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPEATL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentATLCURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKATL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentATLCURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTATL current hitter names are populated.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentATLCURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDATL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentLADCURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPELAD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentLADCURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKLAD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentLADCURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTLAD current hitter names are populated.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentLADCURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDLAD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASSdata_leakageH2H_DATA_LEAKAGEAll head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEHome + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEaway_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.453.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEconfidence is in [0,1]: 0.547.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEhome_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.547.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISFinal total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISLow-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISLow-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.553/0.749.
PASSfinal_decisionFINAL_DECISION_POLICYFinal decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASSinningsGAME_ENDING_COHERENTThe game ends coherently for its score.
PASSinningsINNINGS_COUNTinning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASSinningsINNING_OUTSInning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASSinningsINNING_PLAY_SUMSDetailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASSinningsINNING_SEQUENCEInning numbers are sequential.
PASSinningsINNING_TOTAL_HITSInning hits match batting totals: ATL 9, LAD 6.
PASSinningsINNING_TOTAL_RUNSInning runs sum to final score: ATL 4 - LAD 5.
PASSmatchup_recencyGUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNCGuardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAD.
PASSmatchup_recencyMATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAILMatchup recency guardrail applied for LAD; cap=0.56, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'opponent_team': 'ATL', 'h2h_net_margin': -3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-27', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'ATL'}, {'date': '2026-08-26', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'ATL'}, {'date': '2026-08-25', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'ATL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 2, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260827', 'away': 'LAD', 'home': 'ATL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.560841, 'artifact': '20260827_LAD@ATL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260826', 'away': 'LAD', 'home': 'ATL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5486690000000001, 'artifact': '20260826_LAD@ATL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260825', 'away': 'LAD', 'home': 'ATL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5545089999999999, 'artifact': '20260825_LAD@ATL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'LAD', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'ATL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'output_opponent_team': 'ATL', 'simulation_score_winner': 'LAD', 'final_score_winner': 'LAD', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'ATL 4 - 5 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'ATL 4 - 5 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0282, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.314, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 4, 'published_winner': 'LAD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.6096, 'winner': 'LAD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASSmetadataDATE_PARSEDate is valid ISO format: 2026-10-03.
PASSmetadataFILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCHFilename contains game_id: filename=20261003_ATL@LAD__20261003T203748Z, game_id=20261003_ATL@LAD.
PASSmetadataFILENAME_TEAM_MATCHFilename teams match JSON teams: ATL@LAD.
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSH2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -13.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 13.0, 'home_average_margin': -2.6, 'home_run_delta': -0.075, 'away_run_delta': 0.075, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -5.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSScore distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.020286602876242513}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.019844809488443825}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.019833664882420794}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.01940173539406224}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.018704375468971954}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.052919983399183614, '1': 0.07836158878234728, '2': 0.10459581148303007, '3': 0.12584990209090946, '4': 0.13649570871625613, '5': 0.13344817567938594, '6': 0.11760717330278227, '7': 0.09342917414207082, '8': 0.06690502473180449, '9': 0.04318793992986577, '10': 0.025130074098572937, '11': 0.013181127990904703, '12': 0.0062321645628381364, '13': 0.002656151090048298}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.06596937904702013, '1': 0.0968621198279498, '2': 0.12605182833747278, '3': 0.1453877903934454, '4': 0.14862447374381416, '5': 0.13465929312730648, '6': 0.10813491363944308, '7': 0.07696249740114328, '8': 0.04854851753850212, '9': 0.02714290963653067, '10': 0.013449942744312465, '11': 0.005907015046905457, '12': 0.0022993195161541756}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.25, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSSeason/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.5802, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.664, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.6096}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSSimulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'ATL 4 - 5 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'ATL 4 - 5 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0282, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.314, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 4, 'published_winner': 'LAD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.6096, 'winner': 'LAD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASSpipelinePIPELINE_VERSIONPrediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASSpitch_by_pitchPITCH_DETAIL_SANITYPitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASSpitch_countPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHaway pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 159.
PASSpitch_countPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHhome pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 167.
PASSpitch_countsimulationATLPITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHATL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASSpitch_countsimulationATLPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHATL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 159.
PASSpitch_countsimulationLADPITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHLAD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASSpitch_countsimulationLADPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHLAD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 167.
PASSpitcher_opponent_strengthPITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDSPitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASSpitchingPITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENTAll 7 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASSpitchingPUBLISHED_PITCHER_LINES_MATCH_BOXPublished pitcher lines cover the outs the box recorded.
PASSpitchingcurrentATLPITCHING_REALISMcurrent:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingcurrentATLSTARTER_PRESENTcurrent:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingcurrentLADPITCHING_REALISMcurrent:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingcurrentLADSTARTER_PRESENTcurrent:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingsimulationATLPITCHING_REALISMsimulation:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingsimulationATLSTARTER_PRESENTsimulation:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingsimulationLADPITCHING_REALISMsimulation:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingsimulationLADSTARTER_PRESENTsimulation:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentATLPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentATLPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentLADPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentLADPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationATLPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationATLPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationLADPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationLADPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHEnhanced AI score matches enhanced target: ATL 4 - 5 LAD.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHInning simulation score matches final score: ATL 4 - 5 LAD.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHInning simulation winner matches final score: LAD wins 5-4.
PASSprediction_comparisonSIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACESimulation decision is explicit: model=LAD, simulation=LAD, published=LAD.
PASSprobabilityCONFIDENCE_RANGEEnhanced target confidence is in range: 0.547.
PASSrecent_formRECENT_FORM_RANGEaway recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASSrecent_formRECENT_FORM_RANGEhome recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASSreportREPORT_COMPLETEAll findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASSschemaSCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENTBoth major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASSscoreGAME_SUMMARY_MATCHgame_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): LAD wins 5-4.
PASSscoreSCORE_NO_TIEFinal score has a clear winner: LAD wins 4-5.
PASSscoreSCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCHsimulation_result step matches final score: 4-5.
PASSscoreSCORE_STEP_ORDERScore evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASSscoreTARGET_SCORE_DRIFTFinal score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0).
PASSscoreTOTAL_RUNS_MATCHtotal_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASSscoreWINNER_FIELD_MATCHwinner field is consistent: LAD wins 5-4.
PASSscorecross-schemaCURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIMgame.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentATLRECENT_FORM_RANGEATL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentATLTEAM_RECENT_RECORDATL wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentLADRECENT_FORM_RANGELAD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentLADTEAM_RECENT_RECORDLAD wins and win_pct agree: 8/10 = 0.800.
Passed checks
SeverityCategorySourceTeamPlayerRuleMessageValueExpected
PASSbattingcurrentATLBATTING_REALISMcurrent:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingcurrentLADBATTING_REALISMcurrent:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingsimulationATLBATTING_REALISMsimulation:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingsimulationLADBATTING_REALISMsimulation:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbatting_totalscurrentATLBATTING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalscurrentLADBATTING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalssimulationATLBATTING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalssimulationLADBATTING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationATLBAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHsimulation:ATL batting walks match LAD pitching: 3.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationATLBAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHsimulation:ATL batting home runs match LAD pitching: 1.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationATLBAT_PITCH_H_MATCHsimulation:ATL batting hits match LAD pitching: 9.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationATLBAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHsimulation:ATL batting strikeouts match LAD pitching: 9.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationATLPA_BF_MATCHsimulation:ATL PA=41 matches LAD BF=41.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationATLRUNS_MATCH_FINALsimulation:ATL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationLADBAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHsimulation:LAD batting walks match ATL pitching: 5.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationLADBAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHsimulation:LAD batting home runs match ATL pitching: 2.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationLADBAT_PITCH_H_MATCHsimulation:LAD batting hits match ATL pitching: 6.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationLADBAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHsimulation:LAD batting strikeouts match ATL pitching: 9.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationLADPA_BF_MATCHsimulation:LAD PA=35 matches ATL BF=35.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationLADRUNS_MATCH_FINALsimulation:LAD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASSconfidence_calibrationCONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIEDEmpirical confidence blend verified: 0.598 -> 0.590 at weight 0.500.{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.597692, 'sample_size': 459, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5817, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.589696, 'published_confidence': 0.546692, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASScross_schemacross-schemaLADCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXLAD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentATLCURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPEATL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentATLCURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKATL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentATLCURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTATL current hitter names are populated.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentATLCURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDATL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentLADCURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPELAD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentLADCURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKLAD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentLADCURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTLAD current hitter names are populated.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentLADCURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDLAD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASSdata_leakageH2H_DATA_LEAKAGEAll head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEHome + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEaway_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.453.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEconfidence is in [0,1]: 0.547.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEhome_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.547.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISFinal total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISLow-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISLow-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.553/0.749.
PASSfinal_decisionFINAL_DECISION_POLICYFinal decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASSinningsGAME_ENDING_COHERENTThe game ends coherently for its score.
PASSinningsINNINGS_COUNTinning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASSinningsINNING_OUTSInning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASSinningsINNING_PLAY_SUMSDetailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASSinningsINNING_SEQUENCEInning numbers are sequential.
PASSinningsINNING_TOTAL_HITSInning hits match batting totals: ATL 9, LAD 6.
PASSinningsINNING_TOTAL_RUNSInning runs sum to final score: ATL 4 - LAD 5.
PASSmatchup_recencyGUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNCGuardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAD.
PASSmatchup_recencyMATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAILMatchup recency guardrail applied for LAD; cap=0.56, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'opponent_team': 'ATL', 'h2h_net_margin': -3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-27', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'ATL'}, {'date': '2026-08-26', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'ATL'}, {'date': '2026-08-25', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'ATL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 2, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260827', 'away': 'LAD', 'home': 'ATL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.560841, 'artifact': '20260827_LAD@ATL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260826', 'away': 'LAD', 'home': 'ATL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5486690000000001, 'artifact': '20260826_LAD@ATL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260825', 'away': 'LAD', 'home': 'ATL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5545089999999999, 'artifact': '20260825_LAD@ATL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'LAD', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'ATL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'output_opponent_team': 'ATL', 'simulation_score_winner': 'LAD', 'final_score_winner': 'LAD', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'ATL 4 - 5 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'ATL 4 - 5 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0282, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.314, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 4, 'published_winner': 'LAD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.6096, 'winner': 'LAD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASSmetadataDATE_PARSEDate is valid ISO format: 2026-10-03.
PASSmetadataFILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCHFilename contains game_id: filename=20261003_ATL@LAD__20261003T203748Z, game_id=20261003_ATL@LAD.
PASSmetadataFILENAME_TEAM_MATCHFilename teams match JSON teams: ATL@LAD.
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSH2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -13.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 13.0, 'home_average_margin': -2.6, 'home_run_delta': -0.075, 'away_run_delta': 0.075, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -5.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSScore distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.020286602876242513}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.019844809488443825}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.019833664882420794}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.01940173539406224}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.018704375468971954}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.052919983399183614, '1': 0.07836158878234728, '2': 0.10459581148303007, '3': 0.12584990209090946, '4': 0.13649570871625613, '5': 0.13344817567938594, '6': 0.11760717330278227, '7': 0.09342917414207082, '8': 0.06690502473180449, '9': 0.04318793992986577, '10': 0.025130074098572937, '11': 0.013181127990904703, '12': 0.0062321645628381364, '13': 0.002656151090048298}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.06596937904702013, '1': 0.0968621198279498, '2': 0.12605182833747278, '3': 0.1453877903934454, '4': 0.14862447374381416, '5': 0.13465929312730648, '6': 0.10813491363944308, '7': 0.07696249740114328, '8': 0.04854851753850212, '9': 0.02714290963653067, '10': 0.013449942744312465, '11': 0.005907015046905457, '12': 0.0022993195161541756}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.25, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSSeason/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.5802, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.664, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.6096}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSSimulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'ATL 4 - 5 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'ATL 4 - 5 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0282, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.314, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 4, 'published_winner': 'LAD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.6096, 'winner': 'LAD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASSpipelinePIPELINE_VERSIONPrediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASSpitch_by_pitchPITCH_DETAIL_SANITYPitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASSpitch_countPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHaway pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 159.
PASSpitch_countPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHhome pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 167.
PASSpitch_countsimulationATLPITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHATL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASSpitch_countsimulationATLPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHATL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 159.
PASSpitch_countsimulationLADPITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHLAD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASSpitch_countsimulationLADPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHLAD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 167.
PASSpitcher_opponent_strengthPITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDSPitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASSpitchingPITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENTAll 7 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASSpitchingPUBLISHED_PITCHER_LINES_MATCH_BOXPublished pitcher lines cover the outs the box recorded.
PASSpitchingcurrentATLPITCHING_REALISMcurrent:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingcurrentATLSTARTER_PRESENTcurrent:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingcurrentLADPITCHING_REALISMcurrent:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingcurrentLADSTARTER_PRESENTcurrent:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingsimulationATLPITCHING_REALISMsimulation:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingsimulationATLSTARTER_PRESENTsimulation:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingsimulationLADPITCHING_REALISMsimulation:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingsimulationLADSTARTER_PRESENTsimulation:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentATLPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentATLPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentLADPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentLADPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationATLPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationATLPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationLADPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationLADPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHEnhanced AI score matches enhanced target: ATL 4 - 5 LAD.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHInning simulation score matches final score: ATL 4 - 5 LAD.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHInning simulation winner matches final score: LAD wins 5-4.
PASSprediction_comparisonSIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACESimulation decision is explicit: model=LAD, simulation=LAD, published=LAD.
PASSprobabilityCONFIDENCE_RANGEEnhanced target confidence is in range: 0.547.
PASSrecent_formRECENT_FORM_RANGEaway recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASSrecent_formRECENT_FORM_RANGEhome recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASSreportREPORT_COMPLETEAll findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASSschemaSCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENTBoth major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASSscoreGAME_SUMMARY_MATCHgame_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): LAD wins 5-4.
PASSscoreSCORE_NO_TIEFinal score has a clear winner: LAD wins 4-5.
PASSscoreSCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCHsimulation_result step matches final score: 4-5.
PASSscoreSCORE_STEP_ORDERScore evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASSscoreTARGET_SCORE_DRIFTFinal score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0).
PASSscoreTOTAL_RUNS_MATCHtotal_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASSscoreWINNER_FIELD_MATCHwinner field is consistent: LAD wins 5-4.
PASSscorecross-schemaCURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIMgame.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentATLRECENT_FORM_RANGEATL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentATLTEAM_RECENT_RECORDATL wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentLADRECENT_FORM_RANGELAD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentLADTEAM_RECENT_RECORDLAD wins and win_pct agree: 8/10 = 0.800.
Info/context findings
SeverityCategorySourceTeamPlayerRuleMessageValueExpected
INFOcurrent_payloadcurrentATLCURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFOcurrent_payloadcurrentLADCURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONLAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaATLCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXATL model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=4, sim=5).New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaATLCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXATL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=36; H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=1, sim=0; 3B: current=0, sim=2; BB: current=2, sim=3; SO: current=10, sim=9; HBP: current=0, sim=2).New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaATLCURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXATL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Drake Baldwin: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Matt Olson: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=0 box=1; Michael Harris II: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Ronald Acuña Jr.: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Ozzie Albies: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Mauricio Dubón: H current=1 box=2, 3B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Sean Murphy: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Austin Riley: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=2 box=1New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaLADCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXLAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=30; H: current=7, sim=6; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=9).New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaLADCURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXLAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Shohei Ohtani: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Will Smith: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Mookie Betts: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Teoscar Hernández: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Freddie Freeman: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Tommy Edman: AB current=3 box=2, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Andy Pages: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Kyle Tucker: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFOscore_reconciliationRECONCILIATION_PROPAGATIONNo score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
Score evolution
stepaway_runshome_runsconfidencedescription
historical_ml4.46699506334458455.887453590703506Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied46Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction450.547Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment45Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review45Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target45Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result45Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Inning-by-inning linescore
team123456789RH
ATL00100020149
LAD10210001056
Team totals - current + final simulation
srcteamtypePAABH2B3BHRRBIRBBSOSFHBPSBCSIPERBFPitches
currentATLbatting338101442100000
currentATLpitching525498.0500
currentLADbatting33710145380000
currentLADpitching914399.0400
simulationATLbatting369021443902
simulationATLpitching625598.0535159
simulationLADbatting306102555900
simulationLADpitching914399.0441167
Batting lines - current + final simulation
srcteamorderposnamePAABH2B3BHRRRBIBBSOHBPAVG
currentATLDHDrake Baldwin041000111100.250
currentATL1BMatt Olson041001110100.250
currentATLCFMichael Harris II041100110100.250
currentATLRFRonald Acuña Jr.041000101100.250
currentATL2BOzzie Albies041000010100.250
currentATLLFMauricio Dubón041000000100.250
currentATLCSean Murphy031000000100.333
currentATL3BAustin Riley031000000200.333
currentATLSSHa-Seong Kim030000000100.000
currentLADDHShohei Ohtani041001111100.250
currentLADCWill Smith041000001100.250
currentLADSSMookie Betts041100110000.250
currentLADLFTeoscar Hernández041000100100.250
currentLAD1BFreddie Freeman041000000100.250
currentLAD2BTommy Edman030000000100.000
currentLADCFAndy Pages031000110100.333
currentLADRFKyle Tucker041000101100.250
currentLAD3BMax Muncy030000010100.000
simulationATL1DHDrake Baldwin530000000120.000
simulationATL2RFRonald Acuña Jr.551001120200.200
simulationATL32BOzzie Albies541000001000.250
simulationATL41BMatt Olson541000121100.250
simulationATL5CFMichael Harris II551000000100.200
simulationATL6LFMauricio Dubón442010100100.500
simulationATL73BAustin Riley440000000100.000
simulationATL8CSean Murphy440000000200.000
simulationATL9SSHa-Seong Kim433010101001.000
simulationLAD1SSMookie Betts430000101100.000
simulationLAD2DHShohei Ohtani430000101000.000
simulationLAD3CWill Smith442101120000.500
simulationLAD41BFreddie Freeman432000111000.667
simulationLAD5LFTeoscar Hernández430000001300.000
simulationLAD6RFKyle Tucker440000000100.000
simulationLAD7CFAndy Pages442001120000.500
simulationLAD83BMax Muncy440000000200.000
simulationLAD92BTommy Edman320000001200.000
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
srcteamordernameroleIPHRERBBSOHRBFPitchessim_ERAseason_ERAseason_WHIP
currentATL1Dylan DoddStarter5.2333371004.762.680.91
currentATL2Didier FuentesSetup Man1.0111111009.002.501.11
currentATL3Raisel IglesiasCloser1.1111010006.752.471.08
currentLAD1Tarik SkubalStarter6.1511170001.422.720.96
currentLAD2Justin WrobleskiSetup Man1.1100010000.003.661.14
currentLAD3Tanner ScottCloser1.01221010018.002.690.99
currentLAD4Evan PhillipsMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)0.12111100027.003.461.08
simulationATL1Dylan DoddStarter5.2322371231043.182.680.91
simulationATL2Raisel IglesiasCloser1.11110105286.752.471.08
simulationATL3Didier FuentesSetup Man1.022221172718.002.501.11
simulationLAD1Tarik SkubalStarter6.1511170271111.422.720.96
simulationLAD2Tanner ScottCloser1.012210152018.002.690.99
simulationLAD3Justin WrobleskiSetup Man1.11000105220.003.661.14
simulationLAD4Evan PhillipsMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)0.121111041427.003.461.08
Pitch count summary
teampitcherroleIPRHBBSOBFPitches
ATLDylan DoddStarter5.2233723104
ATLDidier FuentesSetup Man1.02221727
ATLRaisel IglesiasCloser1.11101528
LADTarik SkubalStarter6.1151727111
LADJustin WrobleskiSetup Man1.10101522
LADTanner ScottCloser1.02110520
LADEvan PhillipsMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)0.11211414
Audit rule catalog
rulestatuscriticalerrorwarningpassdescription
BATTING_REALISMgood0004Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUMgood0004Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHgood0002Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHgood0002Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCHgood0002Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHgood0002Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIEDgood0001Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGEgood0005Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXinfo0001Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPEgood0002Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKgood0002Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTgood0002Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONinfo0000Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXinfo0000Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDgood0002Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIMgood0001game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSEgood0001Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCHgood0001Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCHgood0001Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICYgood0001One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_ENDING_COHERENTgood0001The inning line ends the way a real game with the published score ends.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCHgood0001game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNCgood0001Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGEgood0001Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNTgood0001Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTSgood0001Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMSgood0001Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCEgood0001Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITSgood0001Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNSgood0001Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSISgood0003Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
LUNA_KPI_TRACEnot triggered0000Promoted Luna KPIs are traced per hitter and the per-game totals agree.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAILgood0001Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSgood0004H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCHgood0002Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSIONgood0001Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENTgood0001Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDSgood0001Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISMgood0004Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUMgood0008Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHgood0002Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHgood0004Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITYgood0001Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHgood0003prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
PUBLISHED_PITCHER_LINES_MATCH_BOXgood0001Published staff lines cover the outs the box recorded, extra innings included.
RECENT_FORM_RANGEgood0004Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATIONinfo0000When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETEgood0001Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORTnot triggered0000Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINALgood0002Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENTgood0001Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIEgood0001Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCHgood0001score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDERgood0001Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACEgood0001Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENTgood0004Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYSnot triggered0000Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFTgood0001Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORDgood0002team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCHgood0001total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCHgood0001winner field agrees with the final score.

20261003_CHW@CLE

20261003_CHW@CLE__20261003T173812Z.json • 2026-10-03

CHW 4 - CLE 2
ERROR

Final simulation is close, but errors remain. Risk score: 80.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 2WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7
Action summary - what to fix first
LevelProblem group / fixCountTeamsExample
ERRORInnings
Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.
0C / 1E / 0W-The inning line cannot end this way for the published score: extra innings from a non-tie, a home ninth played after the home side led, or a short final half the home side lost.
ERRORPitching
Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.
0C / 1E / 0W-Published pitcher lines disagree with the box: away published 27 outs, box 30; away Huascar Brazobán published 0.0 IP but recorded outs in the box; home published 27 outs, box 30; home Hunter Gaddis published 0.0 IP but recorded outs in the box
Problems table - exact rows
SeverityCategorySourceTeamPlayerRuleMessageValueExpected
ERRORinningsGAME_ENDING_COHERENTThe inning line cannot end this way for the published score: extra innings from a non-tie, a home ninth played after the home side led, or a short final half the home side lost.Extra innings only from a tie; bottom of the last inning skipped when home leads, a walk-off when short, otherwise three outs with the away side ahead.
ERRORpitchingPUBLISHED_PITCHER_LINES_MATCH_BOXPublished pitcher lines disagree with the box: away published 27 outs, box 30; away Huascar Brazobán published 0.0 IP but recorded outs in the box; home published 27 outs, box 30; home Hunter Gaddis published 0.0 IP but recorded outs in the box{'offenders': ['away published 27 outs, box 30', 'away Huascar Brazobán published 0.0 IP but recorded outs in the box', 'home published 27 outs, box 30', 'home Hunter Gaddis published 0.0 IP but recorded outs in the box']}Each staff's published innings equal the outs its box recorded, extra innings included.
All findings - complete audit trail
SeverityCategorySourceTeamPlayerRuleMessageValueExpected
ERRORinningsGAME_ENDING_COHERENTThe inning line cannot end this way for the published score: extra innings from a non-tie, a home ninth played after the home side led, or a short final half the home side lost.Extra innings only from a tie; bottom of the last inning skipped when home leads, a walk-off when short, otherwise three outs with the away side ahead.
ERRORpitchingPUBLISHED_PITCHER_LINES_MATCH_BOXPublished pitcher lines disagree with the box: away published 27 outs, box 30; away Huascar Brazobán published 0.0 IP but recorded outs in the box; home published 27 outs, box 30; home Hunter Gaddis published 0.0 IP but recorded outs in the box{'offenders': ['away published 27 outs, box 30', 'away Huascar Brazobán published 0.0 IP but recorded outs in the box', 'home published 27 outs, box 30', 'home Hunter Gaddis published 0.0 IP but recorded outs in the box']}Each staff's published innings equal the outs its box recorded, extra innings included.
INFOcurrent_payloadcurrentCHWCURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONCHW pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFOcurrent_payloadcurrentCLECURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONCLE pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaCHWCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXCHW model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=37; 2B: current=2, sim=4; HR: current=1, sim=0; R: current=5, sim=4; SO: current=11, sim=5; HBP: current=0, sim=2).New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaCHWCURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXCHW current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Randal Grichuk: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Munetaka Murakami: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Tommy Pham: AB current=3 box=2, H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Chase Meidroth: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Braden Montgomery: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1; Miguel Vargas: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Brenton Doyle: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0; Kyle Teel: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaCLECURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXCLE model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=35; H: current=7, sim=5; 2B: current=2, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=2; R: current=5, sim=2; BB: current=4, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=9).New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaCLECURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXCLE current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Steven Kwan: AB current=4 box=5, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Jo Adell: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; David Fry: SO current=1 box=2; José Ramírez: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Angel Martínez: RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Travis Bazzana: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Chase DeLauter: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Austin Hedges: BB current=0 box=1New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFOscore_reconciliationRECONCILIATION_PROPAGATIONNo score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASSbattingcurrentCHWBATTING_REALISMcurrent:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingcurrentCLEBATTING_REALISMcurrent:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingsimulationCHWBATTING_REALISMsimulation:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingsimulationCLEBATTING_REALISMsimulation:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbatting_totalscurrentCHWBATTING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalscurrentCLEBATTING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalssimulationCHWBATTING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalssimulationCLEBATTING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCHWBAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHsimulation:CHW batting walks match CLE pitching: 3.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCHWBAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHsimulation:CHW batting home runs match CLE pitching: 0.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCHWBAT_PITCH_H_MATCHsimulation:CHW batting hits match CLE pitching: 7.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCHWBAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHsimulation:CHW batting strikeouts match CLE pitching: 5.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCHWPA_BF_MATCHsimulation:CHW PA=42 matches CLE BF=42.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCHWRUNS_MATCH_FINALsimulation:CHW runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCLEBAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHsimulation:CLE batting walks match CHW pitching: 2.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCLEBAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHsimulation:CLE batting home runs match CHW pitching: 1.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCLEBAT_PITCH_H_MATCHsimulation:CLE batting hits match CHW pitching: 5.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCLEBAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHsimulation:CLE batting strikeouts match CHW pitching: 9.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCLEPA_BF_MATCHsimulation:CLE PA=37 matches CHW BF=37.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCLERUNS_MATCH_FINALsimulation:CLE runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASSconfidence_calibrationCONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIEDEmpirical confidence blend verified: 0.510 -> 0.536 at weight 0.500.{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5101, 'sample_size': 816, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5625, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.5363, 'published_confidence': 0.522998, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASScross_schemacross-schemaCHWCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXCHW current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASScross_schemacross-schemaCLECURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXCLE current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentCHWCURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPECHW current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentCHWCURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKCHW current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentCHWCURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTCHW current hitter names are populated.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentCHWCURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDCHW hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentCLECURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPECLE current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentCLECURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKCLE current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentCLECURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTCLE current hitter names are populated.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentCLECURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDCLE hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASSdata_leakageH2H_DATA_LEAKAGEAll head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEHome + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEaway_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.523.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEconfidence is in [0,1]: 0.523.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEhome_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.477.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISFinal total runs 6 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 6.0.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISLow-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISLow-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.787/0.900.
PASSfinal_decisionFINAL_DECISION_POLICYFinal decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASSinningsINNINGS_COUNTinning_by_inning_summary contains 10 innings.
PASSinningsINNING_PLAY_SUMSDetailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASSinningsINNING_SEQUENCEInning numbers are sequential.
PASSinningsINNING_TOTAL_HITSInning hits match batting totals: CHW 7, CLE 5.
PASSinningsINNING_TOTAL_RUNSInning runs sum to final score: CHW 4 - CLE 2.
PASSmatchup_recencyGUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNCGuardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CHW.
PASSmatchup_recencyMATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAILMatchup recency guardrail applied for CHW; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result; latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design.{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'opponent_team': 'CLE', 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-16', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'CLE'}, {'date': '2026-09-15', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'CLE'}, {'date': '2026-09-14', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'CHW'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 11, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 3, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260916', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'actual_winner': 'CLE', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.556513, 'artifact': '20260916_CHW@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260915', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'CLE', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.544573, 'artifact': '20260915_CHW@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260914', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.505654, 'artifact': '20260914_CHW@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260809', 'away': 'CLE', 'home': 'CHW', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260809_CLE@CHW.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260808', 'away': 'CLE', 'home': 'CHW', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.7, 'artifact': '20260808_CLE@CHW.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'CHW', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CLE', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'CHW', 'output_opponent_team': 'CLE', 'simulation_score_winner': 'CHW', 'final_score_winner': 'CHW', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CHW', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'CHW 4 - 2 CLE', 'winner': 'CHW'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'CHW 4 - 2 CLE', 'winner': 'CHW'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0059, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.03, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 2, 'winner': 'CHW', 'model_winner': 'CHW', 'simulation_winner': 'CHW', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'CHW', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'CHW', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 2}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 2}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.1605, 'winner': 'CHW', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 2, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASSmetadataDATE_PARSEDate is valid ISO format: 2026-10-03.
PASSmetadataFILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCHFilename contains game_id: filename=20261003_CHW@CLE__20261003T173812Z, game_id=20261003_CHW@CLE.
PASSmetadataFILENAME_TEAM_MATCHFilename teams match JSON teams: CHW@CLE.
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSH2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -5.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 5.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.0, 'home_run_delta': -0.0288, 'away_run_delta': 0.0288, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSScore distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.024123071990349864}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.023947733670324038}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.023626350419972117}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.023454622515970646}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.021564449350636655}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.07527066869262464, '1': 0.10984503663694313, '2': 0.14034756752826408, '3': 0.1569998111291837, '4': 0.15376700592243828, '5': 0.13185511270545647, '6': 0.0989921094020718, '7': 0.06506897582890725, '8': 0.03744701042906975, '9': 0.01886818476210655, '10': 0.00832363211363857, '11': 0.003214884849295648}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.07239621156605851, '1': 0.10585436186611731, '2': 0.136034157903003, '3': 0.15365032490708377, '4': 0.1525335189774158, '5': 0.13308937714838545, '6': 0.1020628736012266, '7': 0.06879208733811652, '8': 0.04075261476169347, '9': 0.021218699733757104, '10': 0.009710203942530603, '11': 0.003905568254611897}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.25, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSSeason/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.2685, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.04, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.1605}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSSimulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'CHW 4 - 2 CLE', 'winner': 'CHW'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'CHW 4 - 2 CLE', 'winner': 'CHW'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0059, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.03, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 2, 'winner': 'CHW', 'model_winner': 'CHW', 'simulation_winner': 'CHW', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'CHW', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'CHW', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 2}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 2}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.1605, 'winner': 'CHW', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 2, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASSpipelinePIPELINE_VERSIONPrediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASSpitch_by_pitchPITCH_DETAIL_SANITYPitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASSpitch_countPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHaway pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 145.
PASSpitch_countPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHhome pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 166.
PASSpitch_countsimulationCHWPITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHCHW pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASSpitch_countsimulationCHWPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHCHW pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 145.
PASSpitch_countsimulationCLEPITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHCLE pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASSpitch_countsimulationCLEPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHCLE pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 166.
PASSpitcher_opponent_strengthPITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDSPitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASSpitchingPITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENTAll 10 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASSpitchingcurrentCHWPITCHING_REALISMcurrent:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingcurrentCHWSTARTER_PRESENTcurrent:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingcurrentCLEPITCHING_REALISMcurrent:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingcurrentCLESTARTER_PRESENTcurrent:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingsimulationCHWPITCHING_REALISMsimulation:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingsimulationCHWSTARTER_PRESENTsimulation:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingsimulationCLEPITCHING_REALISMsimulation:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingsimulationCLESTARTER_PRESENTsimulation:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentCHWPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentCHWPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentCLEPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentCLEPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationCHWPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationCHWPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationCLEPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationCLEPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHEnhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CHW 4 - 2 CLE.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHInning simulation score matches final score: CHW 4 - 2 CLE.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHInning simulation winner matches final score: CHW wins 4-2 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASSprediction_comparisonSIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACESimulation decision is explicit: model=CHW, simulation=CHW, published=CHW.
PASSprobabilityCONFIDENCE_RANGEEnhanced target confidence is in range: 0.523.
PASSrecent_formRECENT_FORM_RANGEaway recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASSrecent_formRECENT_FORM_RANGEhome recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASSreportREPORT_COMPLETEAll findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASSschemaSCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENTBoth major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASSscoreGAME_SUMMARY_MATCHgame_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): CHW wins 4-2.
PASSscoreSCORE_NO_TIEFinal score has a clear winner: CHW wins 4-2.
PASSscoreSCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCHsimulation_result step matches final score: 4-2.
PASSscoreSCORE_STEP_ORDERScore evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASSscoreTARGET_SCORE_DRIFTFinal score is close to enhanced target: target 4-2, final 4-2 (delta 0).
PASSscoreTOTAL_RUNS_MATCHtotal_runs field matches final score total: 6.
PASSscoreWINNER_FIELD_MATCHwinner field is consistent: CHW wins 4-2 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASSscorecross-schemaCURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIMgame.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentCHWRECENT_FORM_RANGECHW recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentCHWTEAM_RECENT_RECORDCHW wins and win_pct agree: 8/10 = 0.800.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentCLERECENT_FORM_RANGECLE recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentCLETEAM_RECENT_RECORDCLE wins and win_pct agree: 8/10 = 0.800.
Passed checks
SeverityCategorySourceTeamPlayerRuleMessageValueExpected
PASSbattingcurrentCHWBATTING_REALISMcurrent:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingcurrentCLEBATTING_REALISMcurrent:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingsimulationCHWBATTING_REALISMsimulation:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingsimulationCLEBATTING_REALISMsimulation:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbatting_totalscurrentCHWBATTING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalscurrentCLEBATTING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalssimulationCHWBATTING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalssimulationCLEBATTING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCHWBAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHsimulation:CHW batting walks match CLE pitching: 3.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCHWBAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHsimulation:CHW batting home runs match CLE pitching: 0.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCHWBAT_PITCH_H_MATCHsimulation:CHW batting hits match CLE pitching: 7.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCHWBAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHsimulation:CHW batting strikeouts match CLE pitching: 5.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCHWPA_BF_MATCHsimulation:CHW PA=42 matches CLE BF=42.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCHWRUNS_MATCH_FINALsimulation:CHW runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCLEBAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHsimulation:CLE batting walks match CHW pitching: 2.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCLEBAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHsimulation:CLE batting home runs match CHW pitching: 1.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCLEBAT_PITCH_H_MATCHsimulation:CLE batting hits match CHW pitching: 5.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCLEBAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHsimulation:CLE batting strikeouts match CHW pitching: 9.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCLEPA_BF_MATCHsimulation:CLE PA=37 matches CHW BF=37.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCLERUNS_MATCH_FINALsimulation:CLE runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASSconfidence_calibrationCONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIEDEmpirical confidence blend verified: 0.510 -> 0.536 at weight 0.500.{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5101, 'sample_size': 816, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5625, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.5363, 'published_confidence': 0.522998, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASScross_schemacross-schemaCHWCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXCHW current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASScross_schemacross-schemaCLECURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXCLE current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentCHWCURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPECHW current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentCHWCURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKCHW current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentCHWCURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTCHW current hitter names are populated.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentCHWCURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDCHW hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentCLECURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPECLE current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentCLECURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKCLE current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentCLECURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTCLE current hitter names are populated.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentCLECURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDCLE hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASSdata_leakageH2H_DATA_LEAKAGEAll head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEHome + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEaway_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.523.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEconfidence is in [0,1]: 0.523.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEhome_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.477.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISFinal total runs 6 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 6.0.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISLow-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISLow-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.787/0.900.
PASSfinal_decisionFINAL_DECISION_POLICYFinal decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASSinningsINNINGS_COUNTinning_by_inning_summary contains 10 innings.
PASSinningsINNING_PLAY_SUMSDetailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASSinningsINNING_SEQUENCEInning numbers are sequential.
PASSinningsINNING_TOTAL_HITSInning hits match batting totals: CHW 7, CLE 5.
PASSinningsINNING_TOTAL_RUNSInning runs sum to final score: CHW 4 - CLE 2.
PASSmatchup_recencyGUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNCGuardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CHW.
PASSmatchup_recencyMATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAILMatchup recency guardrail applied for CHW; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result; latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design.{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'opponent_team': 'CLE', 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-16', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'CLE'}, {'date': '2026-09-15', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'CLE'}, {'date': '2026-09-14', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'CHW'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 11, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 3, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260916', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'actual_winner': 'CLE', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.556513, 'artifact': '20260916_CHW@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260915', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'CLE', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.544573, 'artifact': '20260915_CHW@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260914', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.505654, 'artifact': '20260914_CHW@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260809', 'away': 'CLE', 'home': 'CHW', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260809_CLE@CHW.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260808', 'away': 'CLE', 'home': 'CHW', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.7, 'artifact': '20260808_CLE@CHW.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'CHW', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CLE', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'CHW', 'output_opponent_team': 'CLE', 'simulation_score_winner': 'CHW', 'final_score_winner': 'CHW', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CHW', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'CHW 4 - 2 CLE', 'winner': 'CHW'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'CHW 4 - 2 CLE', 'winner': 'CHW'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0059, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.03, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 2, 'winner': 'CHW', 'model_winner': 'CHW', 'simulation_winner': 'CHW', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'CHW', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'CHW', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 2}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 2}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.1605, 'winner': 'CHW', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 2, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASSmetadataDATE_PARSEDate is valid ISO format: 2026-10-03.
PASSmetadataFILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCHFilename contains game_id: filename=20261003_CHW@CLE__20261003T173812Z, game_id=20261003_CHW@CLE.
PASSmetadataFILENAME_TEAM_MATCHFilename teams match JSON teams: CHW@CLE.
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSH2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -5.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 5.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.0, 'home_run_delta': -0.0288, 'away_run_delta': 0.0288, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSScore distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.024123071990349864}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.023947733670324038}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.023626350419972117}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.023454622515970646}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.021564449350636655}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.07527066869262464, '1': 0.10984503663694313, '2': 0.14034756752826408, '3': 0.1569998111291837, '4': 0.15376700592243828, '5': 0.13185511270545647, '6': 0.0989921094020718, '7': 0.06506897582890725, '8': 0.03744701042906975, '9': 0.01886818476210655, '10': 0.00832363211363857, '11': 0.003214884849295648}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.07239621156605851, '1': 0.10585436186611731, '2': 0.136034157903003, '3': 0.15365032490708377, '4': 0.1525335189774158, '5': 0.13308937714838545, '6': 0.1020628736012266, '7': 0.06879208733811652, '8': 0.04075261476169347, '9': 0.021218699733757104, '10': 0.009710203942530603, '11': 0.003905568254611897}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.25, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSSeason/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.2685, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.04, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.1605}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSSimulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'CHW 4 - 2 CLE', 'winner': 'CHW'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'CHW 4 - 2 CLE', 'winner': 'CHW'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0059, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.03, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 2, 'winner': 'CHW', 'model_winner': 'CHW', 'simulation_winner': 'CHW', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'CHW', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'CHW', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 2}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 2}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.1605, 'winner': 'CHW', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 2, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASSpipelinePIPELINE_VERSIONPrediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASSpitch_by_pitchPITCH_DETAIL_SANITYPitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASSpitch_countPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHaway pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 145.
PASSpitch_countPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHhome pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 166.
PASSpitch_countsimulationCHWPITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHCHW pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASSpitch_countsimulationCHWPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHCHW pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 145.
PASSpitch_countsimulationCLEPITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHCLE pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASSpitch_countsimulationCLEPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHCLE pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 166.
PASSpitcher_opponent_strengthPITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDSPitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASSpitchingPITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENTAll 10 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASSpitchingcurrentCHWPITCHING_REALISMcurrent:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingcurrentCHWSTARTER_PRESENTcurrent:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingcurrentCLEPITCHING_REALISMcurrent:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingcurrentCLESTARTER_PRESENTcurrent:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingsimulationCHWPITCHING_REALISMsimulation:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingsimulationCHWSTARTER_PRESENTsimulation:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingsimulationCLEPITCHING_REALISMsimulation:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingsimulationCLESTARTER_PRESENTsimulation:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentCHWPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentCHWPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentCLEPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentCLEPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationCHWPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationCHWPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationCLEPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationCLEPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHEnhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CHW 4 - 2 CLE.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHInning simulation score matches final score: CHW 4 - 2 CLE.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHInning simulation winner matches final score: CHW wins 4-2 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASSprediction_comparisonSIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACESimulation decision is explicit: model=CHW, simulation=CHW, published=CHW.
PASSprobabilityCONFIDENCE_RANGEEnhanced target confidence is in range: 0.523.
PASSrecent_formRECENT_FORM_RANGEaway recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASSrecent_formRECENT_FORM_RANGEhome recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASSreportREPORT_COMPLETEAll findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASSschemaSCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENTBoth major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASSscoreGAME_SUMMARY_MATCHgame_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): CHW wins 4-2.
PASSscoreSCORE_NO_TIEFinal score has a clear winner: CHW wins 4-2.
PASSscoreSCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCHsimulation_result step matches final score: 4-2.
PASSscoreSCORE_STEP_ORDERScore evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASSscoreTARGET_SCORE_DRIFTFinal score is close to enhanced target: target 4-2, final 4-2 (delta 0).
PASSscoreTOTAL_RUNS_MATCHtotal_runs field matches final score total: 6.
PASSscoreWINNER_FIELD_MATCHwinner field is consistent: CHW wins 4-2 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASSscorecross-schemaCURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIMgame.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentCHWRECENT_FORM_RANGECHW recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentCHWTEAM_RECENT_RECORDCHW wins and win_pct agree: 8/10 = 0.800.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentCLERECENT_FORM_RANGECLE recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentCLETEAM_RECENT_RECORDCLE wins and win_pct agree: 8/10 = 0.800.
Info/context findings
SeverityCategorySourceTeamPlayerRuleMessageValueExpected
INFOcurrent_payloadcurrentCHWCURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONCHW pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFOcurrent_payloadcurrentCLECURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONCLE pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaCHWCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXCHW model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=37; 2B: current=2, sim=4; HR: current=1, sim=0; R: current=5, sim=4; SO: current=11, sim=5; HBP: current=0, sim=2).New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaCHWCURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXCHW current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Randal Grichuk: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Munetaka Murakami: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Tommy Pham: AB current=3 box=2, H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Chase Meidroth: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Braden Montgomery: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1; Miguel Vargas: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Brenton Doyle: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0; Kyle Teel: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaCLECURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXCLE model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=35; H: current=7, sim=5; 2B: current=2, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=2; R: current=5, sim=2; BB: current=4, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=9).New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaCLECURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXCLE current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Steven Kwan: AB current=4 box=5, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Jo Adell: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; David Fry: SO current=1 box=2; José Ramírez: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Angel Martínez: RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Travis Bazzana: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Chase DeLauter: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Austin Hedges: BB current=0 box=1New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFOscore_reconciliationRECONCILIATION_PROPAGATIONNo score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
Score evolution
stepaway_runshome_runsconfidencedescription
historical_ml4.8793177219463143.620441997905461Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied54Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction430.523Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment42Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review42Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target42Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result42Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Inning-by-inning linescore
team12345678910RH
CHW210000000147
CLE000002000025
Team totals - current + final simulation
srcteamtypePAABH2B3BHRRBIRBBSOSFHBPSBCSIPERBFPitches
currentCHWbatting327201453110000
currentCHWpitching512299.0200
currentCLEbatting32720145480000
currentCLEpitching704359.0400
simulationCHWbatting377400443502
simulationCHWpitching5122910.0237145
simulationCLEbatting355001222900
simulationCLEpitching7043510.0442166
Batting lines - current + final simulation
srcteamorderposnamePAABH2B3BHRRRBIBBSOHBPAVG
currentCHWLFRandal Grichuk041100010100.250
currentCHW1BMunetaka Murakami041001111200.250
currentCHWDHTommy Pham030000000100.000
currentCHW2BChase Meidroth041100101100.250
currentCHWRFBraden Montgomery031000100100.333
currentCHW3BMiguel Vargas041000101100.250
currentCHWCFBrenton Doyle041000000100.250
currentCHWCKyle Teel031000110100.333
currentCHWSSColson Montgomery030000010200.000
currentCLECFSteven Kwan041000101000.250
currentCLEDHJo Adell041100110100.250
currentCLE1BDavid Fry030000001100.000
currentCLE3BJosé Ramírez041100111100.250
currentCLELFAngel Martínez041001110100.250
currentCLE2BTravis Bazzana031000000100.333
currentCLERFChase DeLauter041000011100.250
currentCLECAustin Hedges030000000100.000
currentCLESSBrayan Rocchio031000100100.333
simulationCHW12BChase Meidroth550000000100.000
simulationCHW2LFRandal Grichuk552100120100.400
simulationCHW33BMiguel Vargas540000001200.000
simulationCHW41BMunetaka Murakami552000100000.400
simulationCHW5DHTommy Pham521100111020.500
simulationCHW6CFBrenton Doyle550000000100.000
simulationCHW7CKyle Teel430000001000.000
simulationCHW8RFBraden Montgomery442200110000.500
simulationCHW9SSColson Montgomery440000000000.000
simulationCLE1CFSteven Kwan551000000100.200
simulationCLE23BJosé Ramírez441000000000.250
simulationCLE3RFChase DeLauter440000000100.000
simulationCLE4DHJo Adell440000000100.000
simulationCLE5LFAngel Martínez441001120200.250
simulationCLE61BDavid Fry430000001200.000
simulationCLE72BTravis Bazzana442000100000.500
simulationCLE8CAustin Hedges430000001100.000
simulationCLE9SSBrayan Rocchio440000000100.000
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
srcteamordernameroleIPHRERBBSOHRBFPitchessim_ERAseason_ERAseason_WHIP
currentCHW1Hagen SmithStarter5.0200250000.000.870.90
currentCHW2Grant TaylorCloser1.12220110013.502.401.03
currentCHW3Sean NewcombMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.1000010000.002.771.11
currentCHW4Bryan HudsonSetup Man1.0000000000.002.621.16
currentCHW5Jordan HicksMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)0.1000010000.003.831.50
currentCHW6Huascar BrazobánMiddle Reliever0.0100010002.561.01
currentCLE1Parker MessickStarter6.0533150004.502.561.06
currentCLE2Cade SmithCloser1.0000000000.001.950.96
currentCLE3Erik SabrowskiMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)2.0111100004.502.421.06
currentCLE4Hunter GaddisSetup Man0.0100100002.831.21
simulationCHW1Hagen SmithStarter5.020025019770.000.870.90
simulationCHW2Grant TaylorCloser1.122201161813.502.401.03
simulationCHW3Bryan HudsonSetup Man1.00000003130.002.621.16
simulationCHW4Sean NewcombMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.10000104170.002.771.11
simulationCHW5Jordan HicksMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)0.1000010140.003.831.50
simulationCHW6Huascar BrazobánMiddle Reliever1.01000104160.002.561.01
simulationCLE1Parker MessickStarter6.0533150261014.502.561.06
simulationCLE2Cade SmithCloser1.00000003130.001.950.96
simulationCLE3Hunter GaddisSetup Man1.01001005200.002.831.21
simulationCLE4Erik SabrowskiMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)2.01111008324.502.421.06
Pitch count summary
teampitcherroleIPRHBBSOBFPitches
CHWHagen SmithStarter5.002251977
CHWGrant TaylorCloser1.12201618
CHWSean NewcombMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.10001417
CHWBryan HudsonSetup Man1.00000313
CHWJordan HicksMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)0.1000114
CHWHuascar BrazobánMiddle Reliever1.00101416
CLEParker MessickStarter6.0351526101
CLECade SmithCloser1.00000313
CLEErik SabrowskiMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)2.01110832
CLEHunter GaddisSetup Man1.00110520
Audit rule catalog
rulestatuscriticalerrorwarningpassdescription
BATTING_REALISMgood0004Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUMgood0004Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHgood0002Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHgood0002Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCHgood0002Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHgood0002Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIEDgood0001Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGEgood0005Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXinfo0002Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPEgood0002Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKgood0002Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTgood0002Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONinfo0000Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXinfo0000Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDgood0002Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIMgood0001game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSEgood0001Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCHgood0001Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCHgood0001Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICYgood0001One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_ENDING_COHERENTerror0100The inning line ends the way a real game with the published score ends.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCHgood0001game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNCgood0001Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGEgood0001Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNTgood0001Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTSnot triggered0000Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMSgood0001Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCEgood0001Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITSgood0001Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNSgood0001Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSISgood0003Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
LUNA_KPI_TRACEnot triggered0000Promoted Luna KPIs are traced per hitter and the per-game totals agree.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAILgood0001Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSgood0004H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCHgood0002Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSIONgood0001Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENTgood0001Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDSgood0001Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISMgood0004Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUMgood0008Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHgood0002Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHgood0004Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITYgood0001Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHgood0003prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
PUBLISHED_PITCHER_LINES_MATCH_BOXerror0100Published staff lines cover the outs the box recorded, extra innings included.
RECENT_FORM_RANGEgood0004Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATIONinfo0000When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETEgood0001Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORTnot triggered0000Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINALgood0002Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENTgood0001Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIEgood0001Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCHgood0001score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDERgood0001Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACEgood0001Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENTgood0004Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYSnot triggered0000Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFTgood0001Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORDgood0002team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCHgood0001total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCHgood0001winner field agrees with the final score.

20261003_NYY@TB

20261003_NYY@TB__20261003T223732Z.json • 2026-10-03

NYY 3 - TB 4
PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 104INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows
SeverityCategorySourceTeamPlayerRuleMessageValueExpected
All findings - complete audit trail
SeverityCategorySourceTeamPlayerRuleMessageValueExpected
INFOcurrent_payloadcurrentNYYCURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONNYY pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFOcurrent_payloadcurrentTBCURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONTB pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaNYYCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXNYY model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=31; H: current=7, sim=4; 2B: current=1, sim=2; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=5, sim=3; BB: current=2, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=5).New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaNYYCURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXNYY current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Spencer Jones: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Cody Bellinger: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1; George Lombard Jr.: AB current=4 box=3, 3B current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Ben Rice: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Luis García Jr.: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jazz Chisholm Jr.: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Trent Grisham: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Austin Wells: AB current=3 box=4New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaTBCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXTB model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=32; 2B: current=1, sim=3; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; BB: current=2, sim=3).New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaTBCURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXTB current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Liam Hicks: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Junior Caminero: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Yandy Díaz: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Jonny DeLuca: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0; Jonathan Aranda: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Richie Palacios: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Victor Mesa Jr.: 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Taylor Walls: AB current=3 box=2, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFOscore_reconciliationRECONCILIATION_PROPAGATIONNo score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASSbattingcurrentNYYBATTING_REALISMcurrent:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingcurrentTBBATTING_REALISMcurrent:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingsimulationNYYBATTING_REALISMsimulation:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingsimulationTBBATTING_REALISMsimulation:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbatting_totalscurrentNYYBATTING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalscurrentTBBATTING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalssimulationNYYBATTING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalssimulationTBBATTING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationNYYBAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHsimulation:NYY batting walks match TB pitching: 4.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationNYYBAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHsimulation:NYY batting home runs match TB pitching: 1.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationNYYBAT_PITCH_H_MATCHsimulation:NYY batting hits match TB pitching: 4.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationNYYBAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHsimulation:NYY batting strikeouts match TB pitching: 5.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationNYYPA_BF_MATCHsimulation:NYY PA=35 matches TB BF=35.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationNYYRUNS_MATCH_FINALsimulation:NYY runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationTBBAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHsimulation:TB batting walks match NYY pitching: 3.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationTBBAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHsimulation:TB batting home runs match NYY pitching: 0.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationTBBAT_PITCH_H_MATCHsimulation:TB batting hits match NYY pitching: 8.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationTBBAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHsimulation:TB batting strikeouts match NYY pitching: 7.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationTBPA_BF_MATCHsimulation:TB PA=35 matches NYY BF=35.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationTBRUNS_MATCH_FINALsimulation:TB runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASSconfidence_calibrationCONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIEDEmpirical confidence blend verified: 0.490 -> 0.526 at weight 0.500.{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.490254, 'sample_size': 815, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.562, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.526127, 'published_confidence': 0.518365, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASScross_schemacross-schemaNYYCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXNYY current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASScross_schemacross-schemaTBCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXTB current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentNYYCURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPENYY current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentNYYCURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKNYY current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentNYYCURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTNYY current hitter names are populated.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentNYYCURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDNYY hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentTBCURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPETB current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentTBCURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKTB current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentTBCURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTTB current hitter names are populated.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentTBCURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDTB hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASSdata_leakageH2H_DATA_LEAKAGEAll head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEHome + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEaway_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.482.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEconfidence is in [0,1]: 0.518.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEhome_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.518.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISFinal total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISLow-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISLow-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.675/0.893.
PASSfinal_decisionFINAL_DECISION_POLICYFinal decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASSinningsGAME_ENDING_COHERENTThe game ends coherently for its score.
PASSinningsINNINGS_COUNTinning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASSinningsINNING_OUTSInning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASSinningsINNING_PLAY_SUMSDetailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASSinningsINNING_SEQUENCEInning numbers are sequential.
PASSinningsINNING_TOTAL_HITSInning hits match batting totals: NYY 4, TB 8.
PASSinningsINNING_TOTAL_RUNSInning runs sum to final score: NYY 3 - TB 4.
PASSmatchup_recencyGUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNCGuardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: TB.
PASSmatchup_recencyMATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAILMatchup recency guardrail applied for TB; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; recent head-to-head is split and volatile.{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'TB', 'opponent_team': 'NYY', 'h2h_net_margin': -4, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-24', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'NYY'}, {'date': '2026-09-23', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 9, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -7, 'winner': 'NYY'}, {'date': '2026-09-22', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 5, 'winner': 'TB'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 6, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260924', 'away': 'TB', 'home': 'NYY', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.531136, 'artifact': '20260924_TB@NYY.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260923', 'away': 'TB', 'home': 'NYY', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TB', 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 7, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.505259, 'artifact': '20260923_TB@NYY.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260922', 'away': 'TB', 'home': 'NYY', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.534918, 'artifact': '20260922_TB@NYY.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260922', 'away': 'TB', 'home': 'NYY', 'game_number': 2, 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'actual_winner': 'TB', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.520635, 'artifact': '20260922_TB@NYY_2.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260709', 'away': 'NYY', 'home': 'TB', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 8, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260709_NYY@TB.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'TB', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'NYY', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'TB', 'output_opponent_team': 'NYY', 'simulation_score_winner': 'TB', 'final_score_winner': 'TB', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'TB', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'NYY 3 - 4 TB', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'NYY 3 - 4 TB', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0269, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.182, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'TB', 'model_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'TB', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'TB', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.1757, 'winner': 'TB', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASSmetadataDATE_PARSEDate is valid ISO format: 2026-10-03.
PASSmetadataFILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCHFilename contains game_id: filename=20261003_NYY@TB__20261003T223732Z, game_id=20261003_NYY@TB.
PASSmetadataFILENAME_TEAM_MATCHFilename teams match JSON teams: NYY@TB.
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSH2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -14.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 14.0, 'home_average_margin': -2.8, 'home_run_delta': -0.0808, 'away_run_delta': 0.0808, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -7.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -8.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSScore distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02330248749325166}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.023222854227010863}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.023083427806788986}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.023004543148967774}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.02066254278454156}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.06999058682318827, '1': 0.10249378597138088, '2': 0.1323218909937819, '3': 0.15060594794232982, '4': 0.15112238935098274, '5': 0.13368779528801952, '6': 0.10426318154822485, '7': 0.0716879971844097, '8': 0.043454842844252925, '9': 0.023222350849202135, '10': 0.010940834359288339, '11': 0.004544341558133142, '12': 0.0016640552868057948}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.07285450579554124, '1': 0.1064917431133728, '2': 0.13672721079437586, '3': 0.15419612933151472, '4': 0.15274657782956022, '5': 0.13290735191451863, '6': 0.10157948820433715, '7': 0.06819342994486619, '8': 0.04021226616538831, '9': 0.020828311363539215, '10': 0.009476087743101751, '11': 0.0037868977998838016}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.25, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSSeason/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.2853, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.028, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.1757}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSSimulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'NYY 3 - 4 TB', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'NYY 3 - 4 TB', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0269, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.182, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'TB', 'model_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'TB', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'TB', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.1757, 'winner': 'TB', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASSpipelinePIPELINE_VERSIONPrediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASSpitch_by_pitchPITCH_DETAIL_SANITYPitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASSpitch_countPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHaway pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 132.
PASSpitch_countPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHhome pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 158.
PASSpitch_countsimulationNYYPITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHNYY pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASSpitch_countsimulationNYYPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHNYY pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 132.
PASSpitch_countsimulationTBPITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHTB pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASSpitch_countsimulationTBPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHTB pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 158.
PASSpitcher_opponent_strengthPITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDSPitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASSpitchingPITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENTAll 7 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASSpitchingPUBLISHED_PITCHER_LINES_MATCH_BOXPublished pitcher lines cover the outs the box recorded.
PASSpitchingcurrentNYYPITCHING_REALISMcurrent:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingcurrentNYYSTARTER_PRESENTcurrent:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingcurrentTBPITCHING_REALISMcurrent:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingcurrentTBSTARTER_PRESENTcurrent:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingsimulationNYYPITCHING_REALISMsimulation:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingsimulationNYYSTARTER_PRESENTsimulation:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingsimulationTBPITCHING_REALISMsimulation:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingsimulationTBSTARTER_PRESENTsimulation:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentNYYPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentNYYPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentTBPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentTBPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationNYYPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationNYYPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationTBPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationTBPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHEnhanced AI score matches enhanced target: NYY 3 - 4 TB.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHInning simulation score matches final score: NYY 3 - 4 TB.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHInning simulation winner matches final score: TB wins 4-3.
PASSprediction_comparisonSIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACESimulation decision is explicit: model=TB, simulation=TB, published=TB.
PASSprobabilityCONFIDENCE_RANGEEnhanced target confidence is in range: 0.518.
PASSrecent_formRECENT_FORM_RANGEaway recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASSrecent_formRECENT_FORM_RANGEhome recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASSreportREPORT_COMPLETEAll findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASSschemaSCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENTBoth major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASSscoreGAME_SUMMARY_MATCHgame_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): TB wins 4-3.
PASSscoreSCORE_NO_TIEFinal score has a clear winner: TB wins 3-4.
PASSscoreSCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCHsimulation_result step matches final score: 3-4.
PASSscoreSCORE_STEP_ORDERScore evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASSscoreTARGET_SCORE_DRIFTFinal score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-4 (delta 0).
PASSscoreTOTAL_RUNS_MATCHtotal_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASSscoreWINNER_FIELD_MATCHwinner field is consistent: TB wins 4-3.
PASSscorecross-schemaCURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIMgame.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentNYYRECENT_FORM_RANGENYY recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentNYYTEAM_RECENT_RECORDNYY wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentTBRECENT_FORM_RANGETB recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentTBTEAM_RECENT_RECORDTB wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
Passed checks
SeverityCategorySourceTeamPlayerRuleMessageValueExpected
PASSbattingcurrentNYYBATTING_REALISMcurrent:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingcurrentTBBATTING_REALISMcurrent:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingsimulationNYYBATTING_REALISMsimulation:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingsimulationTBBATTING_REALISMsimulation:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbatting_totalscurrentNYYBATTING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalscurrentTBBATTING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalssimulationNYYBATTING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalssimulationTBBATTING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationNYYBAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHsimulation:NYY batting walks match TB pitching: 4.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationNYYBAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHsimulation:NYY batting home runs match TB pitching: 1.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationNYYBAT_PITCH_H_MATCHsimulation:NYY batting hits match TB pitching: 4.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationNYYBAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHsimulation:NYY batting strikeouts match TB pitching: 5.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationNYYPA_BF_MATCHsimulation:NYY PA=35 matches TB BF=35.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationNYYRUNS_MATCH_FINALsimulation:NYY runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationTBBAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHsimulation:TB batting walks match NYY pitching: 3.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationTBBAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHsimulation:TB batting home runs match NYY pitching: 0.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationTBBAT_PITCH_H_MATCHsimulation:TB batting hits match NYY pitching: 8.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationTBBAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHsimulation:TB batting strikeouts match NYY pitching: 7.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationTBPA_BF_MATCHsimulation:TB PA=35 matches NYY BF=35.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationTBRUNS_MATCH_FINALsimulation:TB runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASSconfidence_calibrationCONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIEDEmpirical confidence blend verified: 0.490 -> 0.526 at weight 0.500.{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.490254, 'sample_size': 815, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.562, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.526127, 'published_confidence': 0.518365, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASScross_schemacross-schemaNYYCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXNYY current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASScross_schemacross-schemaTBCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXTB current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentNYYCURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPENYY current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentNYYCURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKNYY current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentNYYCURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTNYY current hitter names are populated.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentNYYCURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDNYY hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentTBCURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPETB current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentTBCURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKTB current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentTBCURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTTB current hitter names are populated.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentTBCURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDTB hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASSdata_leakageH2H_DATA_LEAKAGEAll head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEHome + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEaway_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.482.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEconfidence is in [0,1]: 0.518.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEhome_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.518.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISFinal total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISLow-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISLow-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.675/0.893.
PASSfinal_decisionFINAL_DECISION_POLICYFinal decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASSinningsGAME_ENDING_COHERENTThe game ends coherently for its score.
PASSinningsINNINGS_COUNTinning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASSinningsINNING_OUTSInning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASSinningsINNING_PLAY_SUMSDetailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASSinningsINNING_SEQUENCEInning numbers are sequential.
PASSinningsINNING_TOTAL_HITSInning hits match batting totals: NYY 4, TB 8.
PASSinningsINNING_TOTAL_RUNSInning runs sum to final score: NYY 3 - TB 4.
PASSmatchup_recencyGUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNCGuardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: TB.
PASSmatchup_recencyMATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAILMatchup recency guardrail applied for TB; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; recent head-to-head is split and volatile.{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'TB', 'opponent_team': 'NYY', 'h2h_net_margin': -4, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-24', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'NYY'}, {'date': '2026-09-23', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 9, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -7, 'winner': 'NYY'}, {'date': '2026-09-22', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 5, 'winner': 'TB'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 6, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260924', 'away': 'TB', 'home': 'NYY', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.531136, 'artifact': '20260924_TB@NYY.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260923', 'away': 'TB', 'home': 'NYY', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TB', 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 7, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.505259, 'artifact': '20260923_TB@NYY.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260922', 'away': 'TB', 'home': 'NYY', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.534918, 'artifact': '20260922_TB@NYY.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260922', 'away': 'TB', 'home': 'NYY', 'game_number': 2, 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'actual_winner': 'TB', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.520635, 'artifact': '20260922_TB@NYY_2.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260709', 'away': 'NYY', 'home': 'TB', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 8, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260709_NYY@TB.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'TB', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'NYY', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'TB', 'output_opponent_team': 'NYY', 'simulation_score_winner': 'TB', 'final_score_winner': 'TB', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'TB', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'NYY 3 - 4 TB', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'NYY 3 - 4 TB', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0269, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.182, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'TB', 'model_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'TB', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'TB', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.1757, 'winner': 'TB', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASSmetadataDATE_PARSEDate is valid ISO format: 2026-10-03.
PASSmetadataFILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCHFilename contains game_id: filename=20261003_NYY@TB__20261003T223732Z, game_id=20261003_NYY@TB.
PASSmetadataFILENAME_TEAM_MATCHFilename teams match JSON teams: NYY@TB.
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSH2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -14.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 14.0, 'home_average_margin': -2.8, 'home_run_delta': -0.0808, 'away_run_delta': 0.0808, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -7.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -8.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSScore distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02330248749325166}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.023222854227010863}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.023083427806788986}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.023004543148967774}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.02066254278454156}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.06999058682318827, '1': 0.10249378597138088, '2': 0.1323218909937819, '3': 0.15060594794232982, '4': 0.15112238935098274, '5': 0.13368779528801952, '6': 0.10426318154822485, '7': 0.0716879971844097, '8': 0.043454842844252925, '9': 0.023222350849202135, '10': 0.010940834359288339, '11': 0.004544341558133142, '12': 0.0016640552868057948}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.07285450579554124, '1': 0.1064917431133728, '2': 0.13672721079437586, '3': 0.15419612933151472, '4': 0.15274657782956022, '5': 0.13290735191451863, '6': 0.10157948820433715, '7': 0.06819342994486619, '8': 0.04021226616538831, '9': 0.020828311363539215, '10': 0.009476087743101751, '11': 0.0037868977998838016}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.25, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSSeason/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.2853, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.028, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.1757}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSSimulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'NYY 3 - 4 TB', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'NYY 3 - 4 TB', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0269, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.182, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'TB', 'model_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'TB', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'TB', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.1757, 'winner': 'TB', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASSpipelinePIPELINE_VERSIONPrediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASSpitch_by_pitchPITCH_DETAIL_SANITYPitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASSpitch_countPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHaway pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 132.
PASSpitch_countPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHhome pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 158.
PASSpitch_countsimulationNYYPITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHNYY pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASSpitch_countsimulationNYYPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHNYY pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 132.
PASSpitch_countsimulationTBPITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHTB pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASSpitch_countsimulationTBPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHTB pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 158.
PASSpitcher_opponent_strengthPITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDSPitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASSpitchingPITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENTAll 7 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASSpitchingPUBLISHED_PITCHER_LINES_MATCH_BOXPublished pitcher lines cover the outs the box recorded.
PASSpitchingcurrentNYYPITCHING_REALISMcurrent:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingcurrentNYYSTARTER_PRESENTcurrent:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingcurrentTBPITCHING_REALISMcurrent:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingcurrentTBSTARTER_PRESENTcurrent:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingsimulationNYYPITCHING_REALISMsimulation:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingsimulationNYYSTARTER_PRESENTsimulation:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingsimulationTBPITCHING_REALISMsimulation:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingsimulationTBSTARTER_PRESENTsimulation:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentNYYPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentNYYPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentTBPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentTBPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationNYYPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationNYYPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationTBPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationTBPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHEnhanced AI score matches enhanced target: NYY 3 - 4 TB.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHInning simulation score matches final score: NYY 3 - 4 TB.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHInning simulation winner matches final score: TB wins 4-3.
PASSprediction_comparisonSIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACESimulation decision is explicit: model=TB, simulation=TB, published=TB.
PASSprobabilityCONFIDENCE_RANGEEnhanced target confidence is in range: 0.518.
PASSrecent_formRECENT_FORM_RANGEaway recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASSrecent_formRECENT_FORM_RANGEhome recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASSreportREPORT_COMPLETEAll findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASSschemaSCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENTBoth major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASSscoreGAME_SUMMARY_MATCHgame_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): TB wins 4-3.
PASSscoreSCORE_NO_TIEFinal score has a clear winner: TB wins 3-4.
PASSscoreSCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCHsimulation_result step matches final score: 3-4.
PASSscoreSCORE_STEP_ORDERScore evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASSscoreTARGET_SCORE_DRIFTFinal score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-4 (delta 0).
PASSscoreTOTAL_RUNS_MATCHtotal_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASSscoreWINNER_FIELD_MATCHwinner field is consistent: TB wins 4-3.
PASSscorecross-schemaCURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIMgame.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentNYYRECENT_FORM_RANGENYY recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentNYYTEAM_RECENT_RECORDNYY wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentTBRECENT_FORM_RANGETB recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentTBTEAM_RECENT_RECORDTB wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
Info/context findings
SeverityCategorySourceTeamPlayerRuleMessageValueExpected
INFOcurrent_payloadcurrentNYYCURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONNYY pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFOcurrent_payloadcurrentTBCURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONTB pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaNYYCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXNYY model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=31; H: current=7, sim=4; 2B: current=1, sim=2; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=5, sim=3; BB: current=2, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=5).New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaNYYCURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXNYY current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Spencer Jones: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Cody Bellinger: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1; George Lombard Jr.: AB current=4 box=3, 3B current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Ben Rice: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Luis García Jr.: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jazz Chisholm Jr.: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Trent Grisham: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Austin Wells: AB current=3 box=4New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaTBCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXTB model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=32; 2B: current=1, sim=3; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; BB: current=2, sim=3).New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaTBCURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXTB current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Liam Hicks: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Junior Caminero: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Yandy Díaz: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Jonny DeLuca: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0; Jonathan Aranda: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Richie Palacios: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Victor Mesa Jr.: 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Taylor Walls: AB current=3 box=2, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFOscore_reconciliationRECONCILIATION_PROPAGATIONNo score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
Score evolution
stepaway_runshome_runsconfidencedescription
historical_ml4.3301886839707754.7654968017036134Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied45Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction340.518Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment34Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review34Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target34Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result34Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Inning-by-inning linescore
team123456789RH
NYY02000000134
TB00020200048
Team totals - current + final simulation
srcteamtypePAABH2B3BHRRBIRBBSOSFHBPSBCSIPERBFPitches
currentNYYbatting32710145290000
currentNYYpitching804378.0400
currentTBbatting34810144270000
currentTBpitching413459.0300
simulationNYYbatting314211334500
simulationNYYpitching804378.0435132
simulationTBbatting328310443700
simulationTBpitching413459.0335158
Batting lines - current + final simulation
srcteamorderposnamePAABH2B3BHRRRBIBBSOHBPAVG
currentNYYRFSpencer Jones041000110100.250
currentNYYLFCody Bellinger041000111100.250
currentNYYSSGeorge Lombard Jr.041000100100.250
currentNYYDHBen Rice041001111100.250
currentNYY1BLuis García Jr.041100010100.250
currentNYY2BJazz Chisholm Jr.031000100100.333
currentNYYCFTrent Grisham031000000100.333
currentNYYCAustin Wells030000000100.000
currentNYY3BRyan McMahon030000000100.000
currentTBCLiam Hicks041000010000.250
currentTB3BJunior Caminero041001111100.250
currentTBDHYandy Díaz041000110100.250
currentTBCFJonny DeLuca041100000100.250
currentTB1BJonathan Aranda041000011100.250
currentTB2BRichie Palacios031000000100.333
currentTBRFVictor Mesa Jr.041000100100.250
currentTBSSTaylor Walls030000100100.000
currentTBLFChandler Simpson041000000000.250
simulationNYY1DHBen Rice440000000100.000
simulationNYY2LFCody Bellinger431100111100.333
simulationNYY31BLuis García Jr.440000000000.000
simulationNYY4RFSpencer Jones440000000100.000
simulationNYY5SSGeorge Lombard Jr.431010101000.333
simulationNYY62BJazz Chisholm Jr.430000001100.000
simulationNYY7CFTrent Grisham432101121000.667
simulationNYY8CAustin Wells440000000100.000
simulationNYY93BRyan McMahon330000000000.000
simulationTB1DHYandy Díaz443200110000.750
simulationTB21BJonathan Aranda440000000300.000
simulationTB33BJunior Caminero430000001000.000
simulationTB4CLiam Hicks430000001000.000
simulationTB5LFChandler Simpson442000100000.500
simulationTB6RFVictor Mesa Jr.441010110200.250
simulationTB7CFJonny DeLuca440000000100.000
simulationTB82BRichie Palacios442100120100.500
simulationTB9SSTaylor Walls320000001000.000
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
srcteamordernameroleIPHRERBBSOHRBFPitchessim_ERAseason_ERAseason_WHIP
currentNYY1Gerrit ColeStarter5.2733360004.763.611.10
currentNYY3Brent HeadrickSetup Man1.2000010000.002.171.21
currentNYY4David BednarCloser0.21110000013.502.431.04
currentTB1Drew RasmussenStarter6.0122350003.002.670.91
currentTB2Bryan BakerCloser1.0100100000.001.300.87
currentTB3Cam BooserMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.0111001009.001.980.76
currentTB4Kevin KellySetup Man1.0100000000.002.440.90
simulationNYY1Gerrit ColeStarter5.2733360271044.763.611.10
simulationNYY2David BednarCloser0.211100031113.502.431.04
simulationNYY3Brent HeadrickSetup Man1.20000105170.002.171.21
simulationTB1Drew RasmussenStarter6.0122350221033.002.670.91
simulationTB2Bryan BakerCloser1.01001005230.001.300.87
simulationTB3Kevin KellySetup Man1.01000004160.002.440.90
simulationTB4Cam BooserMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.01110014169.001.980.76
Pitch count summary
teampitcherroleIPRHBBSOBFPitches
NYYGerrit ColeStarter5.2373627104
NYYBrent HeadrickSetup Man1.20001517
NYYDavid BednarCloser0.21100311
TBDrew RasmussenStarter6.0213522103
TBBryan BakerCloser1.00110523
TBCam BooserMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.01100416
TBKevin KellySetup Man1.00100416
Audit rule catalog
rulestatuscriticalerrorwarningpassdescription
BATTING_REALISMgood0004Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUMgood0004Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHgood0002Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHgood0002Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCHgood0002Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHgood0002Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIEDgood0001Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGEgood0005Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXinfo0002Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPEgood0002Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKgood0002Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTgood0002Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONinfo0000Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXinfo0000Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDgood0002Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIMgood0001game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSEgood0001Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCHgood0001Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCHgood0001Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICYgood0001One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_ENDING_COHERENTgood0001The inning line ends the way a real game with the published score ends.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCHgood0001game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNCgood0001Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGEgood0001Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNTgood0001Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTSgood0001Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMSgood0001Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCEgood0001Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITSgood0001Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNSgood0001Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSISgood0003Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
LUNA_KPI_TRACEnot triggered0000Promoted Luna KPIs are traced per hitter and the per-game totals agree.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAILgood0001Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSgood0004H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCHgood0002Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSIONgood0001Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENTgood0001Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDSgood0001Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISMgood0004Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUMgood0008Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHgood0002Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHgood0004Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITYgood0001Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHgood0003prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
PUBLISHED_PITCHER_LINES_MATCH_BOXgood0001Published staff lines cover the outs the box recorded, extra innings included.
RECENT_FORM_RANGEgood0004Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATIONinfo0000When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETEgood0001Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORTnot triggered0000Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINALgood0002Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENTgood0001Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIEgood0001Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCHgood0001score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDERgood0001Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACEgood0001Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENTgood0004Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYSnot triggered0000Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFTgood0001Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORDgood0002team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCHgood0001total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCHgood0001winner field agrees with the final score.

20261003_SD@MIL

20261003_SD@MIL__20261004T003703Z.json • 2026-10-03

SD 4 - MIL 6
PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 104INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows
SeverityCategorySourceTeamPlayerRuleMessageValueExpected
All findings - complete audit trail
SeverityCategorySourceTeamPlayerRuleMessageValueExpected
INFOcurrent_payloadcurrentMILCURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONMIL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFOcurrent_payloadcurrentSDCURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONSD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaMILCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXMIL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=32; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=5, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=5, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=5).New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaMILCURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXMIL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: William Contreras: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Brice Turang: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Jackson Chourio: HR current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jake Bauers: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Luis Lara: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Joey Ortiz: AB current=3 box=2, 3B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Cooper Pratt: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Christian Yelich: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaSDCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXSD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=37; H: current=7, sim=10; 2B: current=1, sim=2; 3B: current=0, sim=1; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=10, sim=7).New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaSDCURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXSD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ty France: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, 3B current=0 box=1; Manny Machado: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=2; Dustin Harris: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Fernando Tatis Jr.: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Luis Campusano: AB current=4 box=3, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Ethan Salas: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1; Jackson Merrill: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Xander Bogaerts: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFOscore_reconciliationRECONCILIATION_PROPAGATIONNo score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASSbattingcurrentMILBATTING_REALISMcurrent:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingcurrentSDBATTING_REALISMcurrent:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingsimulationMILBATTING_REALISMsimulation:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingsimulationSDBATTING_REALISMsimulation:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbatting_totalscurrentMILBATTING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalscurrentSDBATTING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalssimulationMILBATTING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalssimulationSDBATTING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationMILBAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHsimulation:MIL batting walks match SD pitching: 3.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationMILBAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHsimulation:MIL batting home runs match SD pitching: 3.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationMILBAT_PITCH_H_MATCHsimulation:MIL batting hits match SD pitching: 8.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationMILBAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHsimulation:MIL batting strikeouts match SD pitching: 5.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationMILPA_BF_MATCHsimulation:MIL PA=35 matches SD BF=35.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationMILRUNS_MATCH_FINALsimulation:MIL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationSDBAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHsimulation:SD batting walks match MIL pitching: 4.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationSDBAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHsimulation:SD batting home runs match MIL pitching: 1.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationSDBAT_PITCH_H_MATCHsimulation:SD batting hits match MIL pitching: 10.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationSDBAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHsimulation:SD batting strikeouts match MIL pitching: 7.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationSDPA_BF_MATCHsimulation:SD PA=41 matches MIL BF=41.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationSDRUNS_MATCH_FINALsimulation:SD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASSconfidence_calibrationCONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIEDEmpirical confidence blend verified: 0.551 -> 0.554 at weight 0.500.{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.550696, 'sample_size': 285, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5579, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.554298, 'published_confidence': 0.53, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASScross_schemacross-schemaMILCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXMIL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASScross_schemacross-schemaSDCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXSD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentMILCURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPEMIL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentMILCURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKMIL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentMILCURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTMIL current hitter names are populated.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentMILCURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDMIL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentSDCURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPESD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentSDCURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKSD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentSDCURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTSD current hitter names are populated.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentSDCURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDSD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASSdata_leakageH2H_DATA_LEAKAGEAll head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEHome + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEaway_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEconfidence is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEhome_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISFinal total runs 10 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.0.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISLow-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISLow-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.511/0.701.
PASSfinal_decisionFINAL_DECISION_POLICYFinal decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASSinningsGAME_ENDING_COHERENTThe game ends coherently for its score.
PASSinningsINNINGS_COUNTinning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASSinningsINNING_OUTSInning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASSinningsINNING_PLAY_SUMSDetailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASSinningsINNING_SEQUENCEInning numbers are sequential.
PASSinningsINNING_TOTAL_HITSInning hits match batting totals: SD 10, MIL 8.
PASSinningsINNING_TOTAL_RUNSInning runs sum to final score: SD 4 - MIL 6.
PASSmatchup_recencyGUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNCGuardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIL.
PASSmatchup_recencyMATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAILMatchup recency guardrail applied for MIL; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick.{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'opponent_team': 'SD', 'h2h_net_margin': -11, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-12', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'SD'}, {'date': '2026-08-11', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 11, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -9, 'winner': 'SD'}, {'date': '2026-08-10', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'SD'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 2, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260812', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'SD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SD', 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260812_MIL@SD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260811', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'SD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 9, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51256, 'artifact': '20260811_MIL@SD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260810', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'SD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.6, 'artifact': '20260810_MIL@SD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'MIL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'SD', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'output_opponent_team': 'SD', 'simulation_score_winner': 'MIL', 'final_score_winner': 'MIL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'SD 4 - 6 MIL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'SD 4 - 6 MIL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.063, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.334, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'MIL', 'model_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 1, 'published_winner': 'MIL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'MIL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.723, 'winner': 'MIL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASSmetadataDATE_PARSEDate is valid ISO format: 2026-10-03.
PASSmetadataFILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCHFilename contains game_id: filename=20261003_SD@MIL__20261004T003703Z, game_id=20261003_SD@MIL.
PASSmetadataFILENAME_TEAM_MATCHFilename teams match JSON teams: SD@MIL.
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSH2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -7.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 7.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.4, 'home_run_delta': -0.0404, 'away_run_delta': 0.0404, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -9.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 6.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSScore distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.015995938487533404}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01545657949509333}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.015329711421689577}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.015265038729009327}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.015112039256447262}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.04163467869456087, '1': 0.062098513857551475, '2': 0.08470706519929076, '3': 0.105674573295292, '4': 0.12056848661537828, '5': 0.12580837579928966, '6': 0.12005983459530394, '7': 0.10478481837500872, '8': 0.0836395000878033, '9': 0.06105720656452228, '10': 0.04076381976334636, '11': 0.024890020459036263, '12': 0.013899144616141106, '13': 0.007098446816851556, '14': 0.0033155152606234553}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.04305153530911173, '1': 0.0641529926971978, '2': 0.08726944454139246, '3': 0.10837385371575123, '4': 0.12285811176635984, '5': 0.12714525869925203, '6': 0.12011950047393098, '7': 0.1035962128712133, '8': 0.08156263641812865, '9': 0.058621327049306816, '10': 0.03846245932843129, '11': 0.023037506384625633, '12': 0.012596529304155715, '13': 0.006287577457857363, '14': 0.0028650539832850465}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.25, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSSeason/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 1.179, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.124, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.723}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSSimulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'SD 4 - 6 MIL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'SD 4 - 6 MIL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.063, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.334, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'MIL', 'model_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 1, 'published_winner': 'MIL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'MIL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.723, 'winner': 'MIL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASSpipelinePIPELINE_VERSIONPrediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASSpitch_by_pitchPITCH_DETAIL_SANITYPitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASSpitch_countPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHaway pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 149.
PASSpitch_countPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHhome pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 177.
PASSpitch_countsimulationMILPITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHMIL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASSpitch_countsimulationMILPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHMIL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 177.
PASSpitch_countsimulationSDPITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHSD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASSpitch_countsimulationSDPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHSD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 149.
PASSpitcher_opponent_strengthPITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDSPitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASSpitchingPITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENTAll 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASSpitchingPUBLISHED_PITCHER_LINES_MATCH_BOXPublished pitcher lines cover the outs the box recorded.
PASSpitchingcurrentMILPITCHING_REALISMcurrent:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingcurrentMILSTARTER_PRESENTcurrent:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingcurrentSDPITCHING_REALISMcurrent:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingcurrentSDSTARTER_PRESENTcurrent:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingsimulationMILPITCHING_REALISMsimulation:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingsimulationMILSTARTER_PRESENTsimulation:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingsimulationSDPITCHING_REALISMsimulation:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingsimulationSDSTARTER_PRESENTsimulation:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentMILPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentMILPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentSDPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentSDPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationMILPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationMILPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationSDPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationSDPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHEnhanced AI score matches enhanced target: SD 4 - 6 MIL.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHInning simulation score matches final score: SD 4 - 6 MIL.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHInning simulation winner matches final score: MIL wins 6-4.
PASSprediction_comparisonSIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACESimulation decision is explicit: model=MIL, simulation=MIL, published=MIL.
PASSprobabilityCONFIDENCE_RANGEEnhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530.
PASSrecent_formRECENT_FORM_RANGEaway recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASSrecent_formRECENT_FORM_RANGEhome recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASSreportREPORT_COMPLETEAll findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASSschemaSCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENTBoth major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASSscoreGAME_SUMMARY_MATCHgame_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): MIL wins 6-4.
PASSscoreSCORE_NO_TIEFinal score has a clear winner: MIL wins 4-6.
PASSscoreSCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCHsimulation_result step matches final score: 4-6.
PASSscoreSCORE_STEP_ORDERScore evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASSscoreTARGET_SCORE_DRIFTFinal score is close to enhanced target: target 4-6, final 4-6 (delta 0).
PASSscoreTOTAL_RUNS_MATCHtotal_runs field matches final score total: 10.
PASSscoreWINNER_FIELD_MATCHwinner field is consistent: MIL wins 6-4.
PASSscorecross-schemaCURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIMgame.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentMILRECENT_FORM_RANGEMIL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentMILTEAM_RECENT_RECORDMIL wins and win_pct agree: 8/10 = 0.800.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentSDRECENT_FORM_RANGESD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentSDTEAM_RECENT_RECORDSD wins and win_pct agree: 8/10 = 0.800.
Passed checks
SeverityCategorySourceTeamPlayerRuleMessageValueExpected
PASSbattingcurrentMILBATTING_REALISMcurrent:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingcurrentSDBATTING_REALISMcurrent:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingsimulationMILBATTING_REALISMsimulation:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingsimulationSDBATTING_REALISMsimulation:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbatting_totalscurrentMILBATTING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalscurrentSDBATTING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalssimulationMILBATTING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalssimulationSDBATTING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationMILBAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHsimulation:MIL batting walks match SD pitching: 3.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationMILBAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHsimulation:MIL batting home runs match SD pitching: 3.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationMILBAT_PITCH_H_MATCHsimulation:MIL batting hits match SD pitching: 8.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationMILBAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHsimulation:MIL batting strikeouts match SD pitching: 5.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationMILPA_BF_MATCHsimulation:MIL PA=35 matches SD BF=35.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationMILRUNS_MATCH_FINALsimulation:MIL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationSDBAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHsimulation:SD batting walks match MIL pitching: 4.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationSDBAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHsimulation:SD batting home runs match MIL pitching: 1.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationSDBAT_PITCH_H_MATCHsimulation:SD batting hits match MIL pitching: 10.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationSDBAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHsimulation:SD batting strikeouts match MIL pitching: 7.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationSDPA_BF_MATCHsimulation:SD PA=41 matches MIL BF=41.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationSDRUNS_MATCH_FINALsimulation:SD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASSconfidence_calibrationCONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIEDEmpirical confidence blend verified: 0.551 -> 0.554 at weight 0.500.{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.550696, 'sample_size': 285, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5579, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.554298, 'published_confidence': 0.53, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASScross_schemacross-schemaMILCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXMIL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASScross_schemacross-schemaSDCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXSD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentMILCURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPEMIL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentMILCURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKMIL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentMILCURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTMIL current hitter names are populated.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentMILCURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDMIL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentSDCURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPESD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentSDCURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKSD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentSDCURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTSD current hitter names are populated.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentSDCURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDSD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASSdata_leakageH2H_DATA_LEAKAGEAll head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEHome + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEaway_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEconfidence is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEhome_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISFinal total runs 10 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.0.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISLow-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISLow-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.511/0.701.
PASSfinal_decisionFINAL_DECISION_POLICYFinal decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASSinningsGAME_ENDING_COHERENTThe game ends coherently for its score.
PASSinningsINNINGS_COUNTinning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASSinningsINNING_OUTSInning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASSinningsINNING_PLAY_SUMSDetailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASSinningsINNING_SEQUENCEInning numbers are sequential.
PASSinningsINNING_TOTAL_HITSInning hits match batting totals: SD 10, MIL 8.
PASSinningsINNING_TOTAL_RUNSInning runs sum to final score: SD 4 - MIL 6.
PASSmatchup_recencyGUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNCGuardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIL.
PASSmatchup_recencyMATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAILMatchup recency guardrail applied for MIL; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick.{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'opponent_team': 'SD', 'h2h_net_margin': -11, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-12', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'SD'}, {'date': '2026-08-11', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 11, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -9, 'winner': 'SD'}, {'date': '2026-08-10', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'SD'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 2, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260812', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'SD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SD', 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260812_MIL@SD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260811', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'SD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 9, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51256, 'artifact': '20260811_MIL@SD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260810', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'SD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.6, 'artifact': '20260810_MIL@SD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'MIL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'SD', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'output_opponent_team': 'SD', 'simulation_score_winner': 'MIL', 'final_score_winner': 'MIL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'SD 4 - 6 MIL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'SD 4 - 6 MIL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.063, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.334, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'MIL', 'model_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 1, 'published_winner': 'MIL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'MIL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.723, 'winner': 'MIL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASSmetadataDATE_PARSEDate is valid ISO format: 2026-10-03.
PASSmetadataFILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCHFilename contains game_id: filename=20261003_SD@MIL__20261004T003703Z, game_id=20261003_SD@MIL.
PASSmetadataFILENAME_TEAM_MATCHFilename teams match JSON teams: SD@MIL.
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSH2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -7.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 7.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.4, 'home_run_delta': -0.0404, 'away_run_delta': 0.0404, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -9.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 6.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSScore distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.015995938487533404}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01545657949509333}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.015329711421689577}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.015265038729009327}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.015112039256447262}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.04163467869456087, '1': 0.062098513857551475, '2': 0.08470706519929076, '3': 0.105674573295292, '4': 0.12056848661537828, '5': 0.12580837579928966, '6': 0.12005983459530394, '7': 0.10478481837500872, '8': 0.0836395000878033, '9': 0.06105720656452228, '10': 0.04076381976334636, '11': 0.024890020459036263, '12': 0.013899144616141106, '13': 0.007098446816851556, '14': 0.0033155152606234553}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.04305153530911173, '1': 0.0641529926971978, '2': 0.08726944454139246, '3': 0.10837385371575123, '4': 0.12285811176635984, '5': 0.12714525869925203, '6': 0.12011950047393098, '7': 0.1035962128712133, '8': 0.08156263641812865, '9': 0.058621327049306816, '10': 0.03846245932843129, '11': 0.023037506384625633, '12': 0.012596529304155715, '13': 0.006287577457857363, '14': 0.0028650539832850465}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.25, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSSeason/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 1.179, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.124, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.723}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSSimulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'SD 4 - 6 MIL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'SD 4 - 6 MIL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.063, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.334, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'MIL', 'model_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 1, 'published_winner': 'MIL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'MIL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.723, 'winner': 'MIL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASSpipelinePIPELINE_VERSIONPrediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASSpitch_by_pitchPITCH_DETAIL_SANITYPitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASSpitch_countPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHaway pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 149.
PASSpitch_countPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHhome pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 177.
PASSpitch_countsimulationMILPITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHMIL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASSpitch_countsimulationMILPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHMIL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 177.
PASSpitch_countsimulationSDPITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHSD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASSpitch_countsimulationSDPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHSD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 149.
PASSpitcher_opponent_strengthPITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDSPitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASSpitchingPITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENTAll 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASSpitchingPUBLISHED_PITCHER_LINES_MATCH_BOXPublished pitcher lines cover the outs the box recorded.
PASSpitchingcurrentMILPITCHING_REALISMcurrent:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingcurrentMILSTARTER_PRESENTcurrent:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingcurrentSDPITCHING_REALISMcurrent:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingcurrentSDSTARTER_PRESENTcurrent:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingsimulationMILPITCHING_REALISMsimulation:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingsimulationMILSTARTER_PRESENTsimulation:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingsimulationSDPITCHING_REALISMsimulation:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingsimulationSDSTARTER_PRESENTsimulation:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentMILPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentMILPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentSDPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentSDPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationMILPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationMILPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationSDPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationSDPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHEnhanced AI score matches enhanced target: SD 4 - 6 MIL.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHInning simulation score matches final score: SD 4 - 6 MIL.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHInning simulation winner matches final score: MIL wins 6-4.
PASSprediction_comparisonSIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACESimulation decision is explicit: model=MIL, simulation=MIL, published=MIL.
PASSprobabilityCONFIDENCE_RANGEEnhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530.
PASSrecent_formRECENT_FORM_RANGEaway recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASSrecent_formRECENT_FORM_RANGEhome recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASSreportREPORT_COMPLETEAll findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASSschemaSCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENTBoth major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASSscoreGAME_SUMMARY_MATCHgame_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): MIL wins 6-4.
PASSscoreSCORE_NO_TIEFinal score has a clear winner: MIL wins 4-6.
PASSscoreSCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCHsimulation_result step matches final score: 4-6.
PASSscoreSCORE_STEP_ORDERScore evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASSscoreTARGET_SCORE_DRIFTFinal score is close to enhanced target: target 4-6, final 4-6 (delta 0).
PASSscoreTOTAL_RUNS_MATCHtotal_runs field matches final score total: 10.
PASSscoreWINNER_FIELD_MATCHwinner field is consistent: MIL wins 6-4.
PASSscorecross-schemaCURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIMgame.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentMILRECENT_FORM_RANGEMIL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentMILTEAM_RECENT_RECORDMIL wins and win_pct agree: 8/10 = 0.800.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentSDRECENT_FORM_RANGESD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentSDTEAM_RECENT_RECORDSD wins and win_pct agree: 8/10 = 0.800.
Info/context findings
SeverityCategorySourceTeamPlayerRuleMessageValueExpected
INFOcurrent_payloadcurrentMILCURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONMIL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFOcurrent_payloadcurrentSDCURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONSD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaMILCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXMIL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=32; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=5, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=5, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=5).New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaMILCURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXMIL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: William Contreras: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Brice Turang: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Jackson Chourio: HR current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jake Bauers: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Luis Lara: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Joey Ortiz: AB current=3 box=2, 3B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Cooper Pratt: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Christian Yelich: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaSDCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXSD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=37; H: current=7, sim=10; 2B: current=1, sim=2; 3B: current=0, sim=1; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=10, sim=7).New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaSDCURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXSD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ty France: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, 3B current=0 box=1; Manny Machado: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=2; Dustin Harris: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Fernando Tatis Jr.: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Luis Campusano: AB current=4 box=3, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Ethan Salas: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1; Jackson Merrill: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Xander Bogaerts: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFOscore_reconciliationRECONCILIATION_PROPAGATIONNo score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
Score evolution
stepaway_runshome_runsconfidencedescription
historical_ml3.74268662812790486.328560068290372Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied46Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction560.530Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment46Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review46Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target46Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result46Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Inning-by-inning linescore
team123456789RH
SD000001102410
MIL01200120068
Team totals - current + final simulation
srcteamtypePAABH2B3BHRRBIRBBSOSFHBPSBCSIPERBFPitches
currentSDbatting337101453100000
currentSDpitching836358.0600
currentMILbatting33810155590000
currentMILpitching1014479.0400
simulationSDbatting3710211444700
simulationSDpitching836358.0635149
simulationMILbatting328113663500
simulationMILpitching1014479.0441177
Batting lines - current + final simulation
srcteamorderposnamePAABH2B3BHRRRBIBBSOHBPAVG
currentSD1BTy France041000010100.250
currentSD3BManny Machado041001111100.250
currentSDLFDustin Harris041000100100.250
currentSDRFFernando Tatis Jr.041100110100.250
currentSDDHLuis Campusano041000001100.250
currentSDCEthan Salas030000000100.000
currentSDCFJackson Merrill041000110200.250
currentSDSSXander Bogaerts031000101100.333
currentSD2BJake Cronenworth030000000100.000
currentMILCWilliam Contreras041000011100.250
currentMIL2BBrice Turang041100111100.250
currentMILLFJackson Chourio041001111100.250
currentMIL1BJake Bauers041000111100.250
currentMILRFLuis Lara041000000100.250
currentMIL3BJoey Ortiz031000000100.333
currentMILSSCooper Pratt031000001100.333
currentMILDHChristian Yelich041000110100.250
currentMILCFGarrett Mitchell030000100100.000
simulationSD1RFFernando Tatis Jr.542001111100.500
simulationSD2LFDustin Harris550000000100.000
simulationSD33BManny Machado542100121000.500
simulationSD41BTy France553110110000.600
simulationSD5CFJackson Merrill540000001100.000
simulationSD6SSXander Bogaerts440000000200.000
simulationSD7CEthan Salas441000000100.250
simulationSD8DHLuis Campusano431000101000.333
simulationSD92BJake Cronenworth441000000100.250
simulationMIL1LFJackson Chourio441000110000.250
simulationMIL22BBrice Turang431001121100.333
simulationMIL3CWilliam Contreras441100100100.250
simulationMIL41BJake Bauers442001120200.500
simulationMIL5DHChristian Yelich440000000000.000
simulationMIL6SSCooper Pratt432001111000.667
simulationMIL7RFLuis Lara440000000000.000
simulationMIL8CFGarrett Mitchell440000000100.000
simulationMIL93BJoey Ortiz321010101000.500
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
srcteamordernameroleIPHRERBBSOHRBFPitchessim_ERAseason_ERAseason_WHIP
currentSD1Robbie RayStarter5.0633141005.403.591.35
currentSD2Bradgley RodriguezMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.2000100000.001.670.96
currentSD3Mason MillerCloser1.0111001009.001.650.90
currentSD4Adrian MorejonSetup Man0.11221110054.002.761.07
currentMIL1Jacob MisiorowskiStarter6.0411460001.501.800.80
currentMIL2Aaron AshbyMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.03220000018.003.121.31
currentMIL3Abner UribeSetup Man1.0200000000.001.971.03
currentMIL4Trevor MegillCloser1.0111011009.002.040.86
simulationSD1Robbie RayStarter5.063314122975.403.591.35
simulationSD2Mason MillerCloser1.01110014169.001.650.90
simulationSD3Adrian MorejonSetup Man0.112211131154.002.761.07
simulationSD4Bradgley RodriguezMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.20001006250.001.670.96
simulationMIL1Jacob MisiorowskiStarter6.0411460261161.501.800.80
simulationMIL2Trevor MegillCloser1.01110114169.002.040.86
simulationMIL3Abner UribeSetup Man1.02000005190.001.971.03
simulationMIL4Aaron AshbyMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.032200062618.003.121.31
Pitch count summary
teampitcherroleIPRHBBSOBFPitches
SDRobbie RayStarter5.036142297
SDBradgley RodriguezMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.20010625
SDMason MillerCloser1.01100416
SDAdrian MorejonSetup Man0.12111311
MILJacob MisiorowskiStarter6.0144626116
MILAaron AshbyMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.02300626
MILAbner UribeSetup Man1.00200519
MILTrevor MegillCloser1.01101416
Audit rule catalog
rulestatuscriticalerrorwarningpassdescription
BATTING_REALISMgood0004Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUMgood0004Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHgood0002Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHgood0002Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCHgood0002Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHgood0002Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIEDgood0001Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGEgood0005Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXinfo0002Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPEgood0002Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKgood0002Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTgood0002Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONinfo0000Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXinfo0000Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDgood0002Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIMgood0001game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSEgood0001Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCHgood0001Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCHgood0001Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICYgood0001One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_ENDING_COHERENTgood0001The inning line ends the way a real game with the published score ends.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCHgood0001game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNCgood0001Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGEgood0001Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNTgood0001Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTSgood0001Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMSgood0001Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCEgood0001Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITSgood0001Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNSgood0001Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSISgood0003Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
LUNA_KPI_TRACEnot triggered0000Promoted Luna KPIs are traced per hitter and the per-game totals agree.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAILgood0001Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSgood0004H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCHgood0002Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSIONgood0001Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENTgood0001Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDSgood0001Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISMgood0004Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUMgood0008Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHgood0002Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHgood0004Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITYgood0001Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHgood0003prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
PUBLISHED_PITCHER_LINES_MATCH_BOXgood0001Published staff lines cover the outs the box recorded, extra innings included.
RECENT_FORM_RANGEgood0004Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATIONinfo0000When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETEgood0001Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORTnot triggered0000Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINALgood0002Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENTgood0001Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIEgood0001Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCHgood0001score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDERgood0001Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACEgood0001Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENTgood0004Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYSnot triggered0000Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFTgood0001Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORDgood0002team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCHgood0001total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCHgood0001winner field agrees with the final score.