20260927_ARI@SD
20260927_ARI@SD.json • 2026-09-27
ARI 6 - SD 4
PASSClean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.
CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7
No action required
No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.
Problems table - exact rows
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|
All findings - complete audit trail
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | ARI | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | ARI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | SD | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | SD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | ARI | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | ARI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=38; H: current=8, sim=11; 2B: current=1, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=6, sim=7). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | ARI | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | ARI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Lars Nootbaar: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1; Gabriel Moreno: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3; Geraldo Perdomo: BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1, HBP current=0 box=1; Ketel Marte: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Nolan Arenado: 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Tim Tawa: R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Corbin Carroll: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; James McCann: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | SD | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | SD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=7, sim=4; 3B: current=0, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=0; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=9). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | SD | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | SD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Dustin Harris: H current=1 box=2, 3B current=0 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=0 box=1; Gavin Sheets: AB current=3 box=4, BB current=1 box=0; Austin Hays: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Ty France: H current=1 box=2, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Sung-Mun Song: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Manny Machado: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Freddy Fermin: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jake Cronenworth: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. | |||||
| PASS | batting | current | ARI | BATTING_REALISM | current:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | SD | BATTING_REALISM | current:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | ARI | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | SD | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | ARI | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | SD | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SD batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | ARI | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | SD | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SD batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ARI | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:ARI batting walks match SD pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ARI | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:ARI batting home runs match SD pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ARI | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:ARI batting hits match SD pitching: 11. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ARI | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:ARI batting strikeouts match SD pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ARI | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:ARI PA=42 matches SD BF=42. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ARI | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:ARI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SD | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:SD batting walks match ARI pitching: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SD | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:SD batting home runs match ARI pitching: 0. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SD | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:SD batting hits match ARI pitching: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SD | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:SD batting strikeouts match ARI pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SD | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:SD PA=35 matches ARI BF=35. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SD | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:SD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.510 -> 0.532 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5101, 'sample_size': 681, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5536, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.53185, 'published_confidence': 0.510815, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | ARI | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | ARI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | SD | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | SD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | ARI | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | ARI current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | ARI | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | ARI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | ARI | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | ARI current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | ARI | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | ARI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SD | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | SD current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SD | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | SD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SD | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | SD current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SD | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | SD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.511. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.511. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.489. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 10 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.731/0.900. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: ARI 11, SD 4. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: ARI 6 - SD 4. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: ARI. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for ARI; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result; a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'ARI', 'opponent_team': 'SD', 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-26', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 10, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'SD'}, {'date': '2026-09-25', 'predicted_team_runs': 11, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 7, 'winner': 'ARI'}, {'date': '2026-08-06', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -4, 'winner': 'SD'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 10, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 3, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 5, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 2, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260926', 'away': 'ARI', 'home': 'SD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ARI', 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5342450000000001, 'artifact': '20260926_ARI@SD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260925', 'away': 'ARI', 'home': 'SD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ARI', 'actual_winner': 'ARI', 'actual_margin': 7, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.505263, 'artifact': '20260925_ARI@SD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260806', 'away': 'SD', 'home': 'ARI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ARI', 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.672607, 'artifact': '20260806_SD@ARI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260805', 'away': 'SD', 'home': 'ARI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SD', 'actual_winner': 'ARI', 'actual_margin': 6, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260805_SD@ARI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260804', 'away': 'SD', 'home': 'ARI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ARI', 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.54, 'artifact': '20260804_SD@ARI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'ARI', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'SD', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'ARI', 'output_opponent_team': 'SD', 'simulation_score_winner': 'ARI', 'final_score_winner': 'ARI', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'ARI', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'ARI 6 - 4 SD', 'winner': 'ARI'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'ARI 6 - 4 SD', 'winner': 'ARI'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0503, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.37, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'ARI', 'model_winner': 'ARI', 'simulation_winner': 'ARI', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 4, 'published_winner': 'ARI', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'ARI', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.218, 'winner': 'ARI', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-27. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260927_ARI@SD. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: ARI@SD. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -1.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 1.0, 'home_average_margin': -0.2, 'home_run_delta': -0.0058, 'away_run_delta': 0.0058, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -7.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -6.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.018788937777961208}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01841548708876178}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.018213197731838507}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.017851190505785593}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.017438993284560795}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.05438607200724093, '1': 0.08045611194386895, '2': 0.10708620943737558, '3': 0.1282363674218316, '4': 0.13816308596745053, '5': 0.13392942345670128, '6': 0.11680545626580846, '7': 0.09165442088787944, '8': 0.06470634392801054, '9': 0.04110015525706945, '10': 0.023487847564154972, '11': 0.012076640365850828, '12': 0.005586659518557123, '13': 0.0023252059782004238}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.052490155300874176, '1': 0.07774674338896906, '2': 0.10386176863950734, '3': 0.12514064220362323, '4': 0.13599101124874732, '5': 0.1332880411566678, '6': 0.11782605200179402, '7': 0.09394217800686316, '8': 0.06755369085737498, '9': 0.04381337387829081, '10': 0.025629106835708328, '11': 0.013521641075198397, '12': 0.006434199078549912, '13': 0.002761396327831488}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.25, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.1739, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.3, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.218} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'ARI 6 - 4 SD', 'winner': 'ARI'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'ARI 6 - 4 SD', 'winner': 'ARI'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0503, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.37, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'ARI', 'model_winner': 'ARI', 'simulation_winner': 'ARI', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 4, 'published_winner': 'ARI', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'ARI', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.218, 'winner': 'ARI', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 155. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 161. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | ARI | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | ARI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | ARI | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | ARI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 155. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | SD | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | SD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | SD | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | SD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 161. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | ARI | PITCHING_REALISM | current:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | ARI | STARTER_PRESENT | current:ARI includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | SD | PITCHING_REALISM | current:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | SD | STARTER_PRESENT | current:SD includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | ARI | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | ARI | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:ARI includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | SD | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | SD | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:SD includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | ARI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | ARI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | SD | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | SD | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | ARI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | ARI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | SD | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | SD | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: ARI 6 - 4 SD. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: ARI 6 - 4 SD. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: ARI wins 6-4. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=ARI, simulation=ARI, published=ARI. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.511. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): ARI wins 6-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: ARI wins 6-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 6-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-4, final 6-4 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 10. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: ARI wins 6-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | ARI | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | ARI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | ARI | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | ARI wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | SD | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | SD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | SD | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | SD wins and win_pct agree: 8/10 = 0.800. |
Passed checks
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PASS | batting | current | ARI | BATTING_REALISM | current:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | SD | BATTING_REALISM | current:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | ARI | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | SD | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | ARI | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | SD | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SD batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | ARI | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | SD | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SD batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ARI | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:ARI batting walks match SD pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ARI | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:ARI batting home runs match SD pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ARI | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:ARI batting hits match SD pitching: 11. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ARI | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:ARI batting strikeouts match SD pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ARI | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:ARI PA=42 matches SD BF=42. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ARI | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:ARI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SD | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:SD batting walks match ARI pitching: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SD | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:SD batting home runs match ARI pitching: 0. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SD | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:SD batting hits match ARI pitching: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SD | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:SD batting strikeouts match ARI pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SD | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:SD PA=35 matches ARI BF=35. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SD | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:SD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.510 -> 0.532 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5101, 'sample_size': 681, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5536, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.53185, 'published_confidence': 0.510815, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | ARI | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | ARI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | SD | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | SD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | ARI | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | ARI current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | ARI | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | ARI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | ARI | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | ARI current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | ARI | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | ARI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SD | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | SD current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SD | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | SD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SD | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | SD current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SD | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | SD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.511. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.511. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.489. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 10 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.731/0.900. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: ARI 11, SD 4. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: ARI 6 - SD 4. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: ARI. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for ARI; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result; a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'ARI', 'opponent_team': 'SD', 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-26', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 10, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'SD'}, {'date': '2026-09-25', 'predicted_team_runs': 11, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 7, 'winner': 'ARI'}, {'date': '2026-08-06', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -4, 'winner': 'SD'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 10, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 3, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 5, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 2, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260926', 'away': 'ARI', 'home': 'SD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ARI', 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5342450000000001, 'artifact': '20260926_ARI@SD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260925', 'away': 'ARI', 'home': 'SD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ARI', 'actual_winner': 'ARI', 'actual_margin': 7, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.505263, 'artifact': '20260925_ARI@SD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260806', 'away': 'SD', 'home': 'ARI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ARI', 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.672607, 'artifact': '20260806_SD@ARI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260805', 'away': 'SD', 'home': 'ARI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SD', 'actual_winner': 'ARI', 'actual_margin': 6, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260805_SD@ARI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260804', 'away': 'SD', 'home': 'ARI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ARI', 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.54, 'artifact': '20260804_SD@ARI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'ARI', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'SD', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'ARI', 'output_opponent_team': 'SD', 'simulation_score_winner': 'ARI', 'final_score_winner': 'ARI', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'ARI', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'ARI 6 - 4 SD', 'winner': 'ARI'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'ARI 6 - 4 SD', 'winner': 'ARI'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0503, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.37, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'ARI', 'model_winner': 'ARI', 'simulation_winner': 'ARI', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 4, 'published_winner': 'ARI', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'ARI', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.218, 'winner': 'ARI', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-27. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260927_ARI@SD. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: ARI@SD. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -1.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 1.0, 'home_average_margin': -0.2, 'home_run_delta': -0.0058, 'away_run_delta': 0.0058, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -7.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -6.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.018788937777961208}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01841548708876178}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.018213197731838507}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.017851190505785593}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.017438993284560795}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.05438607200724093, '1': 0.08045611194386895, '2': 0.10708620943737558, '3': 0.1282363674218316, '4': 0.13816308596745053, '5': 0.13392942345670128, '6': 0.11680545626580846, '7': 0.09165442088787944, '8': 0.06470634392801054, '9': 0.04110015525706945, '10': 0.023487847564154972, '11': 0.012076640365850828, '12': 0.005586659518557123, '13': 0.0023252059782004238}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.052490155300874176, '1': 0.07774674338896906, '2': 0.10386176863950734, '3': 0.12514064220362323, '4': 0.13599101124874732, '5': 0.1332880411566678, '6': 0.11782605200179402, '7': 0.09394217800686316, '8': 0.06755369085737498, '9': 0.04381337387829081, '10': 0.025629106835708328, '11': 0.013521641075198397, '12': 0.006434199078549912, '13': 0.002761396327831488}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.25, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.1739, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.3, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.218} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'ARI 6 - 4 SD', 'winner': 'ARI'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'ARI 6 - 4 SD', 'winner': 'ARI'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0503, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.37, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'ARI', 'model_winner': 'ARI', 'simulation_winner': 'ARI', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 4, 'published_winner': 'ARI', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'ARI', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.218, 'winner': 'ARI', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 155. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 161. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | ARI | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | ARI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | ARI | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | ARI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 155. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | SD | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | SD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | SD | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | SD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 161. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | ARI | PITCHING_REALISM | current:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | ARI | STARTER_PRESENT | current:ARI includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | SD | PITCHING_REALISM | current:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | SD | STARTER_PRESENT | current:SD includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | ARI | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | ARI | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:ARI includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | SD | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | SD | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:SD includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | ARI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | ARI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | SD | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | SD | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | ARI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | ARI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | SD | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | SD | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: ARI 6 - 4 SD. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: ARI 6 - 4 SD. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: ARI wins 6-4. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=ARI, simulation=ARI, published=ARI. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.511. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): ARI wins 6-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: ARI wins 6-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 6-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-4, final 6-4 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 10. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: ARI wins 6-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | ARI | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | ARI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | ARI | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | ARI wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | SD | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | SD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | SD | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | SD wins and win_pct agree: 8/10 = 0.800. |
Info/context findings
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | ARI | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | ARI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | SD | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | SD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | ARI | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | ARI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=38; H: current=8, sim=11; 2B: current=1, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=6, sim=7). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | ARI | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | ARI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Lars Nootbaar: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1; Gabriel Moreno: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3; Geraldo Perdomo: BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1, HBP current=0 box=1; Ketel Marte: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Nolan Arenado: 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Tim Tawa: R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Corbin Carroll: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; James McCann: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | SD | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | SD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=7, sim=4; 3B: current=0, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=0; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=9). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | SD | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | SD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Dustin Harris: H current=1 box=2, 3B current=0 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=0 box=1; Gavin Sheets: AB current=3 box=4, BB current=1 box=0; Austin Hays: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Ty France: H current=1 box=2, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Sung-Mun Song: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Manny Machado: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Freddy Fermin: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jake Cronenworth: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. |
Score evolution
| step | away_runs | home_runs | confidence | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| historical_ml | 4.37346458304591 | 3.560109137438682 | Base ML historical model prediction | |
| variance_applied | 4 | 4 | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) | |
| enhanced_prediction | 5 | 4 | 0.511 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail) |
| embedded_savant_run_environment | 6 | 4 | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality | |
| fundamental_edge_target_review | 6 | 4 | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments | |
| capped_target | 6 | 4 | Capped at max 12 realistic runs | |
| simulation_result | 6 | 4 | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
Inning-by-inning linescore
| team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 11 |
| SD | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
Team totals - current + final simulation
| src | team | type | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | SO | SF | HBP | SB | CS | IP | ER | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | ARI | batting | 33 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | ARI | pitching | 4 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 9.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| current | SD | batting | 31 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | SD | pitching | 11 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 9.0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| simulation | ARI | batting | 38 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 2 | |||||||
| simulation | ARI | pitching | 4 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 9.0 | 4 | 35 | 155 | |||||||||
| simulation | SD | batting | 31 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | SD | pitching | 11 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 9.0 | 6 | 42 | 161 |
Batting lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | pos | name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | ARI | LF | Lars Nootbaar | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | ARI | DH | Gabriel Moreno | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | ARI | SS | Geraldo Perdomo | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | ARI | 2B | Ketel Marte | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | ARI | 3B | Nolan Arenado | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | ARI | CF | Tim Tawa | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | ARI | RF | Corbin Carroll | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | ARI | C | James McCann | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | ARI | 1B | Pavin Smith | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | SD | RF | Dustin Harris | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | SD | DH | Gavin Sheets | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | SD | LF | Austin Hays | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | SD | 1B | Ty France | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | SD | SS | Sung-Mun Song | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | SD | 3B | Manny Machado | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | SD | C | Freddy Fermin | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | SD | 2B | Jake Cronenworth | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | SD | CF | Jase Bowen | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| simulation | ARI | 1 | LF | Lars Nootbaar | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.600 |
| simulation | ARI | 2 | 2B | Ketel Marte | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.200 |
| simulation | ARI | 3 | DH | Gabriel Moreno | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | ARI | 4 | SS | Geraldo Perdomo | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 |
| simulation | ARI | 5 | RF | Corbin Carroll | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.400 |
| simulation | ARI | 6 | 3B | Nolan Arenado | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 |
| simulation | ARI | 7 | 1B | Pavin Smith | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | ARI | 8 | C | James McCann | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | ARI | 9 | CF | Tim Tawa | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | SD | 1 | RF | Dustin Harris | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | SD | 2 | 3B | Manny Machado | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | SD | 3 | 1B | Ty France | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | SD | 4 | DH | Gavin Sheets | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | SD | 5 | LF | Austin Hays | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | SD | 6 | 2B | Jake Cronenworth | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | SD | 7 | C | Freddy Fermin | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | SD | 8 | SS | Sung-Mun Song | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | SD | 9 | CF | Jase Bowen | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | name | role | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | BF | Pitches | sim_ERA | season_ERA | season_WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | ARI | 1 | Michael Soroka | Starter | 5.1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.06 | 3.31 | 1.09 |
| current | ARI | 2 | Brandyn Garcia | Closer | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.74 | 0.68 |
| current | ARI | 3 | Jonathan Loáisiga | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.80 | 1.11 |
| current | ARI | 4 | Juan Morillo | Setup Man | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.00 | 2.54 | 0.98 |
| current | SD | 1 | Randy Vásquez | Starter | 5.0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.80 | 4.01 | 1.30 |
| current | SD | 2 | Bradgley Rodriguez | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10.80 | 1.70 | 0.97 |
| current | SD | 3 | Adrian Morejon | Setup Man | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.83 | 1.08 |
| current | SD | 4 | Mason Miller | Closer | 1.1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20.25 | 1.67 | 0.90 |
| simulation | ARI | 1 | Michael Soroka | Starter | 5.1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 22 | 100 | 5.06 | 3.31 | 1.09 |
| simulation | ARI | 2 | Brandyn Garcia | Closer | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 0.00 | 1.74 | 0.68 |
| simulation | ARI | 3 | Juan Morillo | Setup Man | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 9.00 | 2.54 | 0.98 |
| simulation | ARI | 4 | Jonathan Loáisiga | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 0.00 | 2.80 | 1.11 |
| simulation | SD | 1 | Randy Vásquez | Starter | 5.0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 23 | 88 | 1.80 | 4.01 | 1.30 |
| simulation | SD | 2 | Mason Miller | Closer | 1.1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 27 | 20.25 | 1.67 | 0.90 |
| simulation | SD | 3 | Adrian Morejon | Setup Man | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 0.00 | 2.83 | 1.08 |
| simulation | SD | 4 | Bradgley Rodriguez | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 30 | 10.80 | 1.70 | 0.97 |
Pitch count summary
| team | pitcher | role | IP | R | H | BB | SO | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Michael Soroka | Starter | 5.1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 22 | 100 |
| ARI | Brandyn Garcia | Closer | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 18 |
| ARI | Jonathan Loáisiga | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| ARI | Juan Morillo | Setup Man | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 20 |
| SD | Randy Vásquez | Starter | 5.0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 88 |
| SD | Bradgley Rodriguez | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 30 |
| SD | Adrian Morejon | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| SD | Mason Miller | Closer | 1.1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 27 |
Audit rule catalog
| rule | status | critical | error | warning | pass | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATTING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints. |
| BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines. |
| BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts. |
| CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate. |
| CONFIDENCE_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | Confidence values are between 0 and 1. |
| CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup. |
| CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions. |
| CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance has usable player names. |
| CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled. |
| CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. |
| CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs. |
| DATE_PARSE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Game date can be parsed as an ISO date. |
| FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename and game_id identify the same game. |
| FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON. |
| FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner. |
| GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game_summary text agrees with final score. |
| GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner. |
| H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode. |
| INNINGS_COUNT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning count is valid for MLB. |
| INNING_OUTS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Each played half inning has valid outs. |
| INNING_PLAY_SUMS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches. |
| INNING_SEQUENCE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Innings are sequential and unique. |
| INNING_TOTAL_HITS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning hits sum to batting team hits. |
| INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning runs sum to final score. |
| LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent. |
| MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence. |
| OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards. |
| PA_BF_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced. |
| PIPELINE_VERSION | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them. |
| PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced. |
| PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds. |
| PITCHING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints. |
| PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines. |
| PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score. |
| PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals. |
| PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values. |
| PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result. |
| RECENT_FORM_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges. |
| RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score. |
| REPORT_COMPLETE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table. |
| REPORT_CSV_EXPORT | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows. |
| RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting/pitching runs agree with final score. |
| SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited. |
| SCORE_NO_TIE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final MLB score has a clear winner. |
| SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | score_evolution simulation_result matches final score. |
| SCORE_STEP_ORDER | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. |
| SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded. |
| STARTER_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected. |
| SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays. |
| TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target. |
| TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed. |
| TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | total_runs equals away + home runs. |
| WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | winner field agrees with the final score. |
20260927_ATL@MIA
20260927_ATL@MIA.json • 2026-09-27
ATL 4 - MIA 5
PASSClean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.
CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 102INFO 7
No action required
No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.
Problems table - exact rows
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|
All findings - complete audit trail
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | ATL | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | ATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | MIA | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | MIA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | ATL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | ATL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=30, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=1, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=2; R: current=6, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=7, sim=6). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | ATL | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | ATL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Austin Riley: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Mike Yastrzemski: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Matt Olson: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Mauricio Dubón: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Sean Murphy: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Ozzie Albies: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1; Ha-Seong Kim: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Brewer Hicklen: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | MIA | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | MIA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=34; H: current=7, sim=10; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=3, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=6). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | MIA | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | MIA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Javier Sanoja: H current=1 box=2, 3B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Graham Pauley: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Esteury Ruiz: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Deyvison De Los Santos: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Jared Serna: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Agustín Ramírez: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Heriberto Hernández: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Griffin Conine: H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. | |||||
| PASS | batting | current | ATL | BATTING_REALISM | current:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | MIA | BATTING_REALISM | current:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | ATL | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | MIA | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | ATL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | MIA | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | ATL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | MIA | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ATL | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:ATL batting walks match MIA pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ATL | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:ATL batting home runs match MIA pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ATL | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:ATL batting hits match MIA pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ATL | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:ATL batting strikeouts match MIA pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ATL | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:ATL PA=35 matches MIA BF=35. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ATL | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:ATL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIA | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:MIA batting walks match ATL pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIA | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:MIA batting home runs match ATL pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIA | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:MIA batting hits match ATL pitching: 10. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIA | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:MIA batting strikeouts match ATL pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIA | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:MIA PA=36 matches ATL BF=36. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIA | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:MIA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.535 -> 0.539 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.534653, 'sample_size': 575, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5443, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.539476, 'published_confidence': 0.505, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | ATL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | ATL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | MIA | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | MIA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | ATL | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | ATL current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | ATL | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | ATL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | ATL | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | ATL current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | ATL | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | ATL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIA | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | MIA current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIA | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | MIA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIA | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | MIA current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIA | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | MIA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.495. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.505. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.505. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.554/0.749. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_OUTS | Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: ATL 7, MIA 10. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: ATL 4 - MIA 5. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIA. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for MIA; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'MIA', 'opponent_team': 'ATL', 'h2h_net_margin': -10, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-26', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 8, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -5, 'winner': 'ATL'}, {'date': '2026-09-25', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 0, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'MIA'}, {'date': '2026-08-06', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 11, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -8, 'winner': 'ATL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 5, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260926', 'away': 'ATL', 'home': 'MIA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260926_ATL@MIA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260925', 'away': 'ATL', 'home': 'MIA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'actual_winner': 'MIA', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.534431, 'artifact': '20260925_ATL@MIA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260806', 'away': 'MIA', 'home': 'ATL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 8, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.58, 'artifact': '20260806_MIA@ATL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260805', 'away': 'MIA', 'home': 'ATL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260805_MIA@ATL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260804', 'away': 'MIA', 'home': 'ATL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.66, 'artifact': '20260804_MIA@ATL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'MIA', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'ATL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'MIA', 'output_opponent_team': 'ATL', 'simulation_score_winner': 'MIA', 'final_score_winner': 'MIA', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'MIA', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'ATL 4 - 5 MIA', 'winner': 'MIA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'ATL 4 - 5 MIA', 'winner': 'MIA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.068, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.454, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'MIA', 'model_winner': 'MIA', 'simulation_winner': 'MIA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'MIA', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.6486, 'winner': 'MIA', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-27. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260927_ATL@MIA. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: ATL@MIA. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -15.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 15.0, 'home_average_margin': -3.0, 'home_run_delta': -0.0865, 'away_run_delta': 0.0865, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -8.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01879252567582952}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01834968276533369}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.018286738419500903}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01785581430611345}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.01739032430162938}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.05313747959369345, '1': 0.07867257179407998, '2': 0.10496656774399866, '3': 0.12620713232480718, '4': 0.1367483371335385, '5': 0.13352588408670993, '6': 0.11749357633285612, '7': 0.09316827130280064, '8': 0.06657745726759093, '9': 0.04287376514288838, '10': 0.024880625691614474, '11': 0.013011765379481434, '12': 0.006132201298568239, '13': 0.0026043649073721918}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.053727296411862344, '1': 0.07951545921622881, '2': 0.10596971948049938, '3': 0.12717027984513807, '4': 0.13742416229513713, '5': 0.1337254902166993, '6': 0.11717606999664779, '7': 0.09245646539383538, '8': 0.06569151438506744, '9': 0.04202956452056519, '10': 0.02421442360407214, '11': 0.012562237796326496, '12': 0.005868586545242527, '13': 0.0024687302926780855}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.25, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.8665, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.244, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.6486} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'ATL 4 - 5 MIA', 'winner': 'MIA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'ATL 4 - 5 MIA', 'winner': 'MIA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.068, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.454, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'MIA', 'model_winner': 'MIA', 'simulation_winner': 'MIA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'MIA', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.6486, 'winner': 'MIA', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 149. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 133. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | ATL | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | ATL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | ATL | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | ATL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 149. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | MIA | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | MIA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | MIA | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | MIA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 133. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | ATL | PITCHING_REALISM | current:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | ATL | STARTER_PRESENT | current:ATL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | MIA | PITCHING_REALISM | current:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | MIA | STARTER_PRESENT | current:MIA includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | ATL | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | ATL | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:ATL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | MIA | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | MIA | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:MIA includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | ATL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | ATL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | MIA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | MIA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | ATL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | ATL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | MIA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | MIA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: ATL 4 - 5 MIA. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: ATL 4 - 5 MIA. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIA wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=MIA, simulation=MIA, published=MIA. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.505. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): MIA wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: MIA wins 4-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 4-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 9. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: MIA wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | ATL | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | ATL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | ATL | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | ATL wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | MIA | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | MIA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | MIA | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | MIA wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500. |
Passed checks
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PASS | batting | current | ATL | BATTING_REALISM | current:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | MIA | BATTING_REALISM | current:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | ATL | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | MIA | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | ATL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | MIA | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | ATL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | MIA | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ATL | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:ATL batting walks match MIA pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ATL | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:ATL batting home runs match MIA pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ATL | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:ATL batting hits match MIA pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ATL | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:ATL batting strikeouts match MIA pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ATL | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:ATL PA=35 matches MIA BF=35. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ATL | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:ATL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIA | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:MIA batting walks match ATL pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIA | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:MIA batting home runs match ATL pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIA | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:MIA batting hits match ATL pitching: 10. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIA | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:MIA batting strikeouts match ATL pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIA | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:MIA PA=36 matches ATL BF=36. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIA | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:MIA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.535 -> 0.539 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.534653, 'sample_size': 575, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5443, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.539476, 'published_confidence': 0.505, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | ATL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | ATL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | MIA | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | MIA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | ATL | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | ATL current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | ATL | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | ATL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | ATL | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | ATL current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | ATL | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | ATL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIA | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | MIA current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIA | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | MIA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIA | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | MIA current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIA | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | MIA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.495. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.505. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.505. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.554/0.749. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_OUTS | Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: ATL 7, MIA 10. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: ATL 4 - MIA 5. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIA. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for MIA; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'MIA', 'opponent_team': 'ATL', 'h2h_net_margin': -10, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-26', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 8, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -5, 'winner': 'ATL'}, {'date': '2026-09-25', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 0, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'MIA'}, {'date': '2026-08-06', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 11, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -8, 'winner': 'ATL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 5, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260926', 'away': 'ATL', 'home': 'MIA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260926_ATL@MIA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260925', 'away': 'ATL', 'home': 'MIA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'actual_winner': 'MIA', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.534431, 'artifact': '20260925_ATL@MIA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260806', 'away': 'MIA', 'home': 'ATL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 8, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.58, 'artifact': '20260806_MIA@ATL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260805', 'away': 'MIA', 'home': 'ATL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260805_MIA@ATL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260804', 'away': 'MIA', 'home': 'ATL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.66, 'artifact': '20260804_MIA@ATL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'MIA', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'ATL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'MIA', 'output_opponent_team': 'ATL', 'simulation_score_winner': 'MIA', 'final_score_winner': 'MIA', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'MIA', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'ATL 4 - 5 MIA', 'winner': 'MIA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'ATL 4 - 5 MIA', 'winner': 'MIA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.068, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.454, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'MIA', 'model_winner': 'MIA', 'simulation_winner': 'MIA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'MIA', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.6486, 'winner': 'MIA', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-27. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260927_ATL@MIA. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: ATL@MIA. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -15.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 15.0, 'home_average_margin': -3.0, 'home_run_delta': -0.0865, 'away_run_delta': 0.0865, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -8.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01879252567582952}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01834968276533369}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.018286738419500903}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01785581430611345}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.01739032430162938}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.05313747959369345, '1': 0.07867257179407998, '2': 0.10496656774399866, '3': 0.12620713232480718, '4': 0.1367483371335385, '5': 0.13352588408670993, '6': 0.11749357633285612, '7': 0.09316827130280064, '8': 0.06657745726759093, '9': 0.04287376514288838, '10': 0.024880625691614474, '11': 0.013011765379481434, '12': 0.006132201298568239, '13': 0.0026043649073721918}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.053727296411862344, '1': 0.07951545921622881, '2': 0.10596971948049938, '3': 0.12717027984513807, '4': 0.13742416229513713, '5': 0.1337254902166993, '6': 0.11717606999664779, '7': 0.09245646539383538, '8': 0.06569151438506744, '9': 0.04202956452056519, '10': 0.02421442360407214, '11': 0.012562237796326496, '12': 0.005868586545242527, '13': 0.0024687302926780855}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.25, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.8665, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.244, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.6486} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'ATL 4 - 5 MIA', 'winner': 'MIA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'ATL 4 - 5 MIA', 'winner': 'MIA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.068, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.454, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'MIA', 'model_winner': 'MIA', 'simulation_winner': 'MIA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'MIA', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.6486, 'winner': 'MIA', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 149. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 133. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | ATL | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | ATL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | ATL | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | ATL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 149. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | MIA | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | MIA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | MIA | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | MIA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 133. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | ATL | PITCHING_REALISM | current:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | ATL | STARTER_PRESENT | current:ATL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | MIA | PITCHING_REALISM | current:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | MIA | STARTER_PRESENT | current:MIA includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | ATL | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | ATL | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:ATL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | MIA | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | MIA | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:MIA includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | ATL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | ATL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | MIA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | MIA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | ATL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | ATL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | MIA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | MIA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: ATL 4 - 5 MIA. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: ATL 4 - 5 MIA. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIA wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=MIA, simulation=MIA, published=MIA. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.505. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): MIA wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: MIA wins 4-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 4-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 9. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: MIA wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | ATL | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | ATL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | ATL | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | ATL wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | MIA | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | MIA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | MIA | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | MIA wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500. |
Info/context findings
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | ATL | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | ATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | MIA | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | MIA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | ATL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | ATL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=30, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=1, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=2; R: current=6, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=7, sim=6). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | ATL | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | ATL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Austin Riley: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Mike Yastrzemski: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Matt Olson: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Mauricio Dubón: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Sean Murphy: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Ozzie Albies: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1; Ha-Seong Kim: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Brewer Hicklen: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | MIA | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | MIA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=34; H: current=7, sim=10; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=3, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=6). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | MIA | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | MIA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Javier Sanoja: H current=1 box=2, 3B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Graham Pauley: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Esteury Ruiz: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Deyvison De Los Santos: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Jared Serna: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Agustín Ramírez: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Heriberto Hernández: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Griffin Conine: H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. |
Score evolution
| step | away_runs | home_runs | confidence | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| historical_ml | 4.345531559741641 | 4.250665726347227 | Base ML historical model prediction | |
| variance_applied | 4 | 4 | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) | |
| enhanced_prediction | 4 | 5 | 0.505 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail) |
| embedded_savant_run_environment | 4 | 5 | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality | |
| fundamental_edge_target_review | 4 | 5 | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments | |
| capped_target | 4 | 5 | Capped at max 12 realistic runs | |
| simulation_result | 4 | 5 | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
Inning-by-inning linescore
| team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| MIA | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 10 |
Team totals - current + final simulation
| src | team | type | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | SO | SF | HBP | SB | CS | IP | ER | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | ATL | batting | 30 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | ATL | pitching | 10 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 8.0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| current | MIA | batting | 31 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | MIA | pitching | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 9.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| simulation | ATL | batting | 34 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | ATL | pitching | 10 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 8.0 | 5 | 36 | 149 | |||||||||
| simulation | MIA | batting | 34 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | MIA | pitching | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 9.0 | 4 | 35 | 133 |
Batting lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | pos | name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | ATL | 3B | Austin Riley | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | ATL | DH | Mike Yastrzemski | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | ATL | 1B | Matt Olson | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | ATL | LF | Mauricio Dubón | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | ATL | C | Sean Murphy | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | ATL | 2B | Ozzie Albies | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | ATL | SS | Ha-Seong Kim | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | ATL | RF | Brewer Hicklen | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | ATL | CF | DaShawn Keirsey Jr. | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | MIA | SS | Javier Sanoja | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIA | 3B | Graham Pauley | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | MIA | CF | Esteury Ruiz | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | MIA | 1B | Deyvison De Los Santos | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | MIA | 2B | Jared Serna | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | MIA | DH | Agustín Ramírez | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIA | LF | Heriberto Hernández | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIA | RF | Griffin Conine | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIA | C | Brian Navarreto | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| simulation | ATL | 1 | LF | Mauricio Dubón | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | ATL | 2 | 2B | Ozzie Albies | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | ATL | 3 | 1B | Matt Olson | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | ATL | 4 | 3B | Austin Riley | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | ATL | 5 | DH | Mike Yastrzemski | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | ATL | 6 | C | Sean Murphy | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | ATL | 7 | SS | Ha-Seong Kim | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | ATL | 8 | RF | Brewer Hicklen | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | ATL | 9 | CF | DaShawn Keirsey Jr. | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | MIA | 1 | RF | Griffin Conine | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | MIA | 2 | SS | Javier Sanoja | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | MIA | 3 | LF | Heriberto Hernández | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 |
| simulation | MIA | 4 | DH | Agustín Ramírez | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | MIA | 5 | 3B | Graham Pauley | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | MIA | 6 | CF | Esteury Ruiz | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | MIA | 7 | 1B | Deyvison De Los Santos | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | MIA | 8 | 2B | Jared Serna | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | MIA | 9 | C | Brian Navarreto | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | name | role | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | BF | Pitches | sim_ERA | season_ERA | season_WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | ATL | 1 | JR Ritchie | Starter | 4.2 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.79 | 4.79 | 1.46 |
| current | ATL | 2 | Didier Fuentes | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10.80 | 2.48 | 1.10 |
| current | ATL | 4 | Raisel Iglesias | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.55 | 1.08 |
| current | ATL | 5 | Dylan Lee | Setup Man | 0.2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.82 | 0.91 |
| current | MIA | 1 | Janson Junk | Starter | 4.2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5.79 | 4.31 | 1.31 |
| current | MIA | 2 | Victor Vodnik | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 4.45 | 1.50 |
| current | MIA | 3 | Calvin Faucher | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.34 | 1.29 |
| current | MIA | 4 | Josh Ekness | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.43 | 1.38 |
| current | MIA | 5 | Michael Petersen | Setup Man | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.00 | 3.08 | 1.13 |
| simulation | ATL | 1 | JR Ritchie | Starter | 4.2 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 22 | 95 | 5.79 | 4.79 | 1.46 |
| simulation | ATL | 2 | Raisel Iglesias | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 2.55 | 1.08 |
| simulation | ATL | 3 | Dylan Lee | Setup Man | 0.2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 0.00 | 2.82 | 0.91 |
| simulation | ATL | 4 | Didier Fuentes | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 27 | 10.80 | 2.48 | 1.10 |
| simulation | MIA | 1 | Janson Junk | Starter | 4.2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 68 | 5.79 | 4.31 | 1.31 |
| simulation | MIA | 2 | Calvin Faucher | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 3.34 | 1.29 |
| simulation | MIA | 3 | Michael Petersen | Setup Man | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 9.00 | 3.08 | 1.13 |
| simulation | MIA | 4 | Victor Vodnik | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 0.00 | 4.45 | 1.50 |
| simulation | MIA | 5 | Josh Ekness | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 0.00 | 2.43 | 1.38 |
Pitch count summary
| team | pitcher | role | IP | R | H | BB | SO | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | JR Ritchie | Starter | 4.2 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 95 |
| ATL | Didier Fuentes | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 27 |
| ATL | Raisel Iglesias | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| ATL | Dylan Lee | Setup Man | 0.2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 14 |
| MIA | Janson Junk | Starter | 4.2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 68 |
| MIA | Victor Vodnik | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 13 |
| MIA | Calvin Faucher | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| MIA | Josh Ekness | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 20 |
| MIA | Michael Petersen | Setup Man | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 19 |
Audit rule catalog
| rule | status | critical | error | warning | pass | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATTING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints. |
| BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines. |
| BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts. |
| CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate. |
| CONFIDENCE_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | Confidence values are between 0 and 1. |
| CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup. |
| CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions. |
| CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance has usable player names. |
| CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled. |
| CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. |
| CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs. |
| DATE_PARSE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Game date can be parsed as an ISO date. |
| FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename and game_id identify the same game. |
| FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON. |
| FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner. |
| GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game_summary text agrees with final score. |
| GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner. |
| H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode. |
| INNINGS_COUNT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning count is valid for MLB. |
| INNING_OUTS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Each played half inning has valid outs. |
| INNING_PLAY_SUMS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches. |
| INNING_SEQUENCE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Innings are sequential and unique. |
| INNING_TOTAL_HITS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning hits sum to batting team hits. |
| INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning runs sum to final score. |
| LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent. |
| MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence. |
| OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards. |
| PA_BF_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced. |
| PIPELINE_VERSION | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them. |
| PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced. |
| PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds. |
| PITCHING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints. |
| PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines. |
| PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score. |
| PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals. |
| PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values. |
| PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result. |
| RECENT_FORM_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges. |
| RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score. |
| REPORT_COMPLETE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table. |
| REPORT_CSV_EXPORT | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows. |
| RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting/pitching runs agree with final score. |
| SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited. |
| SCORE_NO_TIE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final MLB score has a clear winner. |
| SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | score_evolution simulation_result matches final score. |
| SCORE_STEP_ORDER | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. |
| SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded. |
| STARTER_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected. |
| SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays. |
| TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target. |
| TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed. |
| TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | total_runs equals away + home runs. |
| WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | winner field agrees with the final score. |
20260927_BAL@NYY
20260927_BAL@NYY.json • 2026-09-27
BAL 5 - NYY 6
PASSClean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.
CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 102INFO 7
No action required
No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.
Problems table - exact rows
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|
All findings - complete audit trail
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | BAL | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | BAL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | NYY | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | NYY pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | BAL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | BAL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=38; H: current=7, sim=11; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=1; HBP: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | BAL | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | BAL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Coby Mayo: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Pete Alonso: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Colton Cowser: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Dylan Beavers: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Gunnar Henderson: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Heston Kjerstad: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1; Jeremiah Jackson: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Christian Encarnacion-Strand: RBI current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | NYY | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | NYY model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=27; H: current=8, sim=3; HR: current=2, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=6). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | NYY | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | NYY current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Luis García Jr.: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Cody Bellinger: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=3, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Spencer Jones: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Ben Rice: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Heliot Ramos: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; George Lombard Jr.: SO current=1 box=0; Jazz Chisholm Jr.: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Austin Wells: SO current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. | |||||
| PASS | batting | current | BAL | BATTING_REALISM | current:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | NYY | BATTING_REALISM | current:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | BAL | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | NYY | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | BAL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | NYY | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | BAL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | NYY | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BAL | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:BAL batting walks match NYY pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BAL | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:BAL batting home runs match NYY pitching: 0. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BAL | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:BAL batting hits match NYY pitching: 11. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BAL | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:BAL batting strikeouts match NYY pitching: 10. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BAL | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:BAL PA=40 matches NYY BF=40. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BAL | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:BAL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYY | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:NYY batting walks match BAL pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYY | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:NYY batting home runs match BAL pitching: 0. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYY | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:NYY batting hits match BAL pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYY | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:NYY batting strikeouts match BAL pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYY | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:NYY PA=32 matches BAL BF=32. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYY | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:NYY runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.589 -> 0.573 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.589259, 'sample_size': 800, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5575, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.57338, 'published_confidence': 0.519546, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | BAL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | BAL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | NYY | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | NYY current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | BAL | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | BAL current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | BAL | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | BAL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | BAL | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | BAL current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | BAL | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | BAL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYY | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | NYY current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYY | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | NYY current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYY | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | NYY current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYY | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | NYY hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.480. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.520. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.520. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.503/0.690. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_OUTS | Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: BAL 11, NYY 3. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: BAL 5 - NYY 6. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: NYY. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for NYY; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'BAL', 'opponent_team': 'NYY', 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-25', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'NYY'}, {'date': '2026-09-25', 'predicted_team_runs': 10, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 8, 'winner': 'BAL'}, {'date': '2026-08-20', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -5, 'winner': 'NYY'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 5, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260925', 'away': 'BAL', 'home': 'NYY', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'actual_winner': 'BAL', 'actual_margin': 8, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.505, 'artifact': '20260925_BAL@NYY.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260925', 'away': 'BAL', 'home': 'NYY', 'game_number': 2, 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.511579, 'artifact': '20260925_BAL@NYY_2.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260820', 'away': 'NYY', 'home': 'BAL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260820_NYY@BAL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260819', 'away': 'NYY', 'home': 'BAL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5195719999999999, 'artifact': '20260819_NYY@BAL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260818', 'away': 'NYY', 'home': 'BAL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'BAL', 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260818_NYY@BAL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'BAL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'NYY', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'output_opponent_team': 'BAL', 'simulation_score_winner': 'NYY', 'final_score_winner': 'NYY', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'BAL 5 - 6 NYY', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'BAL 5 - 6 NYY', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0053, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.026, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'NYY', 'model_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'NYY', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.6441, 'winner': 'NYY', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-27. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260927_BAL@NYY. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: BAL@NYY. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 4.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 4.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.8, 'home_run_delta': 0.0231, 'away_run_delta': -0.0231, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -8.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.015560277883316964}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.015443206829582884}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.015434788380284632}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01531866147346507}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01444130257049305}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.03605963134948096, '1': 0.05397537039259128, '2': 0.0744181960430895, '3': 0.09450870301584419, '4': 0.11055378763425736, '5': 0.11911997884159857, '6': 0.11822375439442986, '7': 0.1080771899877771, '8': 0.09100651840925159, '9': 0.07058625062851821, '10': 0.05042859701007403, '11': 0.033185075927962944, '12': 0.020114901199286897, '13': 0.011230579071376751, '14': 0.005775579340823469, '15': 0.0027358867536375576}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.04756980749794565, '1': 0.07067979213789004, '2': 0.09531194522220308, '3': 0.11665076803567553, '4': 0.12957346475698467, '5': 0.1306269362590171, '6': 0.11951918140694263, '7': 0.09925003734542122, '8': 0.07480178258947993, '9': 0.05116599407432596, '10': 0.03176428504910764, '11': 0.017897194300115014, '12': 0.009152063426141131, '13': 0.004247577281823058, '14': 0.0017891706169271995}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.25, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 1.118, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.236, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.6441} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'BAL 5 - 6 NYY', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'BAL 5 - 6 NYY', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0053, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.026, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'NYY', 'model_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'NYY', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.6441, 'winner': 'NYY', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 133. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 165. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | BAL | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | BAL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | BAL | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | BAL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 133. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | NYY | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | NYY pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | NYY | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | NYY pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 165. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | BAL | PITCHING_REALISM | current:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | BAL | STARTER_PRESENT | current:BAL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | NYY | PITCHING_REALISM | current:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | NYY | STARTER_PRESENT | current:NYY includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | BAL | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | BAL | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:BAL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | NYY | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | NYY | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:NYY includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | BAL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | BAL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | NYY | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | NYY | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | BAL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | BAL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | NYY | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | NYY | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: BAL 5 - 6 NYY. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: BAL 5 - 6 NYY. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYY wins 6-5. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=NYY, simulation=NYY, published=NYY. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.520. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): NYY wins 6-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: NYY wins 5-6. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 5-6. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-6, final 5-6 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 11. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: NYY wins 6-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | BAL | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | BAL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | BAL | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | BAL wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | NYY | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | NYY recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | NYY | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | NYY wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500. |
Passed checks
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PASS | batting | current | BAL | BATTING_REALISM | current:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | NYY | BATTING_REALISM | current:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | BAL | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | NYY | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | BAL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | NYY | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | BAL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | NYY | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BAL | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:BAL batting walks match NYY pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BAL | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:BAL batting home runs match NYY pitching: 0. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BAL | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:BAL batting hits match NYY pitching: 11. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BAL | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:BAL batting strikeouts match NYY pitching: 10. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BAL | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:BAL PA=40 matches NYY BF=40. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BAL | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:BAL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYY | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:NYY batting walks match BAL pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYY | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:NYY batting home runs match BAL pitching: 0. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYY | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:NYY batting hits match BAL pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYY | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:NYY batting strikeouts match BAL pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYY | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:NYY PA=32 matches BAL BF=32. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYY | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:NYY runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.589 -> 0.573 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.589259, 'sample_size': 800, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5575, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.57338, 'published_confidence': 0.519546, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | BAL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | BAL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | NYY | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | NYY current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | BAL | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | BAL current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | BAL | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | BAL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | BAL | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | BAL current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | BAL | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | BAL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYY | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | NYY current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYY | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | NYY current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYY | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | NYY current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYY | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | NYY hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.480. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.520. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.520. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.503/0.690. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_OUTS | Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: BAL 11, NYY 3. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: BAL 5 - NYY 6. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: NYY. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for NYY; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'BAL', 'opponent_team': 'NYY', 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-25', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'NYY'}, {'date': '2026-09-25', 'predicted_team_runs': 10, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 8, 'winner': 'BAL'}, {'date': '2026-08-20', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -5, 'winner': 'NYY'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 5, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260925', 'away': 'BAL', 'home': 'NYY', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'actual_winner': 'BAL', 'actual_margin': 8, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.505, 'artifact': '20260925_BAL@NYY.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260925', 'away': 'BAL', 'home': 'NYY', 'game_number': 2, 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.511579, 'artifact': '20260925_BAL@NYY_2.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260820', 'away': 'NYY', 'home': 'BAL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260820_NYY@BAL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260819', 'away': 'NYY', 'home': 'BAL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5195719999999999, 'artifact': '20260819_NYY@BAL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260818', 'away': 'NYY', 'home': 'BAL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'BAL', 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260818_NYY@BAL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'BAL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'NYY', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'output_opponent_team': 'BAL', 'simulation_score_winner': 'NYY', 'final_score_winner': 'NYY', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'BAL 5 - 6 NYY', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'BAL 5 - 6 NYY', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0053, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.026, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'NYY', 'model_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'NYY', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.6441, 'winner': 'NYY', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-27. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260927_BAL@NYY. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: BAL@NYY. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 4.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 4.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.8, 'home_run_delta': 0.0231, 'away_run_delta': -0.0231, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -8.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.015560277883316964}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.015443206829582884}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.015434788380284632}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01531866147346507}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01444130257049305}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.03605963134948096, '1': 0.05397537039259128, '2': 0.0744181960430895, '3': 0.09450870301584419, '4': 0.11055378763425736, '5': 0.11911997884159857, '6': 0.11822375439442986, '7': 0.1080771899877771, '8': 0.09100651840925159, '9': 0.07058625062851821, '10': 0.05042859701007403, '11': 0.033185075927962944, '12': 0.020114901199286897, '13': 0.011230579071376751, '14': 0.005775579340823469, '15': 0.0027358867536375576}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.04756980749794565, '1': 0.07067979213789004, '2': 0.09531194522220308, '3': 0.11665076803567553, '4': 0.12957346475698467, '5': 0.1306269362590171, '6': 0.11951918140694263, '7': 0.09925003734542122, '8': 0.07480178258947993, '9': 0.05116599407432596, '10': 0.03176428504910764, '11': 0.017897194300115014, '12': 0.009152063426141131, '13': 0.004247577281823058, '14': 0.0017891706169271995}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.25, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 1.118, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.236, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.6441} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'BAL 5 - 6 NYY', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'BAL 5 - 6 NYY', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0053, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.026, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'NYY', 'model_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'NYY', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.6441, 'winner': 'NYY', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 133. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 165. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | BAL | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | BAL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | BAL | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | BAL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 133. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | NYY | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | NYY pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | NYY | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | NYY pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 165. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | BAL | PITCHING_REALISM | current:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | BAL | STARTER_PRESENT | current:BAL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | NYY | PITCHING_REALISM | current:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | NYY | STARTER_PRESENT | current:NYY includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | BAL | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | BAL | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:BAL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | NYY | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | NYY | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:NYY includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | BAL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | BAL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | NYY | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | NYY | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | BAL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | BAL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | NYY | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | NYY | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: BAL 5 - 6 NYY. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: BAL 5 - 6 NYY. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYY wins 6-5. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=NYY, simulation=NYY, published=NYY. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.520. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): NYY wins 6-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: NYY wins 5-6. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 5-6. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-6, final 5-6 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 11. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: NYY wins 6-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | BAL | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | BAL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | BAL | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | BAL wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | NYY | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | NYY recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | NYY | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | NYY wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500. |
Info/context findings
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | BAL | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | BAL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | NYY | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | NYY pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | BAL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | BAL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=38; H: current=7, sim=11; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=1; HBP: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | BAL | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | BAL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Coby Mayo: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Pete Alonso: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Colton Cowser: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Dylan Beavers: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Gunnar Henderson: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Heston Kjerstad: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1; Jeremiah Jackson: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Christian Encarnacion-Strand: RBI current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | NYY | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | NYY model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=27; H: current=8, sim=3; HR: current=2, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=6). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | NYY | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | NYY current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Luis García Jr.: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Cody Bellinger: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=3, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Spencer Jones: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Ben Rice: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Heliot Ramos: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; George Lombard Jr.: SO current=1 box=0; Jazz Chisholm Jr.: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Austin Wells: SO current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. |
Score evolution
| step | away_runs | home_runs | confidence | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| historical_ml | 4.520310114274014 | 4.344378807949707 | Base ML historical model prediction | |
| variance_applied | 5 | 4 | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) | |
| enhanced_prediction | 5 | 6 | 0.520 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail, season_quality_guardrail) |
| embedded_savant_run_environment | 5 | 6 | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality | |
| fundamental_edge_target_review | 5 | 6 | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments | |
| capped_target | 5 | 6 | Capped at max 12 realistic runs | |
| simulation_result | 5 | 6 | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
Inning-by-inning linescore
| team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 11 |
| NYY | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 |
Team totals - current + final simulation
| src | team | type | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | SO | SF | HBP | SB | CS | IP | ER | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | BAL | batting | 32 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | BAL | pitching | 3 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 8.0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| current | NYY | batting | 32 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | NYY | pitching | 11 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 10 | 9.0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| simulation | BAL | batting | 38 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 1 | |||||||
| simulation | BAL | pitching | 3 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 8.0 | 6 | 32 | 133 | |||||||||
| simulation | NYY | batting | 27 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | NYY | pitching | 11 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 10 | 9.0 | 5 | 40 | 165 |
Batting lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | pos | name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | BAL | DH | Coby Mayo | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | BAL | 1B | Pete Alonso | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | BAL | CF | Colton Cowser | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | BAL | LF | Dylan Beavers | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | BAL | SS | Gunnar Henderson | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | BAL | RF | Heston Kjerstad | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | BAL | 2B | Jeremiah Jackson | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | BAL | 3B | Christian Encarnacion-Strand | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | BAL | C | Carlos Narváez | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | NYY | 1B | Luis García Jr. | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | NYY | LF | Cody Bellinger | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | NYY | CF | Spencer Jones | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | NYY | DH | Ben Rice | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | NYY | RF | Heliot Ramos | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | NYY | SS | George Lombard Jr. | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | NYY | 2B | Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | NYY | C | Austin Wells | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | NYY | 3B | Ryan McMahon | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| simulation | BAL | 1 | LF | Dylan Beavers | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | BAL | 2 | 1B | Pete Alonso | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | BAL | 3 | SS | Gunnar Henderson | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | BAL | 4 | DH | Coby Mayo | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.600 |
| simulation | BAL | 5 | 3B | Christian Encarnacion-Strand | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | BAL | 6 | CF | Colton Cowser | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | BAL | 7 | 2B | Jeremiah Jackson | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | BAL | 8 | RF | Heston Kjerstad | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | BAL | 9 | C | Carlos Narváez | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.667 |
| simulation | NYY | 1 | DH | Ben Rice | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | NYY | 2 | LF | Cody Bellinger | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | NYY | 3 | 1B | Luis García Jr. | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | NYY | 4 | CF | Spencer Jones | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | NYY | 5 | SS | George Lombard Jr. | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | NYY | 6 | 2B | Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | NYY | 7 | RF | Heliot Ramos | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | NYY | 8 | C | Austin Wells | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | NYY | 9 | 3B | Ryan McMahon | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | name | role | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | BF | Pitches | sim_ERA | season_ERA | season_WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | BAL | 1 | Shane Baz | Starter | 5.2 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.53 | 4.11 | 1.35 |
| current | BAL | 2 | Rico Garcia | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.55 | 0.91 |
| current | BAL | 6 | Andrew Kittredge | Closer | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.54 | 1.37 |
| current | NYY | 1 | Elmer Rodríguez | Starter | 4.2 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7.71 | 5.40 | 1.57 |
| current | NYY | 2 | Paul Blackburn | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.75 | 1.69 | 1.09 |
| current | NYY | 3 | Brent Headrick | Setup Man | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.18 | 1.21 |
| current | NYY | 4 | David Bednar | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.47 | 1.04 |
| current | NYY | 5 | Tim Hill | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 4.14 | 1.07 |
| simulation | BAL | 1 | Shane Baz | Starter | 5.2 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 25 | 103 | 9.53 | 4.11 | 1.35 |
| simulation | BAL | 2 | Andrew Kittredge | Closer | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 0.00 | 3.54 | 1.37 |
| simulation | BAL | 3 | Rico Garcia | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 2.55 | 0.91 |
| simulation | NYY | 1 | Elmer Rodríguez | Starter | 4.2 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 21 | 90 | 7.71 | 5.40 | 1.57 |
| simulation | NYY | 2 | David Bednar | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 2.47 | 1.04 |
| simulation | NYY | 3 | Brent Headrick | Setup Man | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 0.00 | 2.18 | 1.21 |
| simulation | NYY | 4 | Paul Blackburn | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 27 | 6.75 | 1.69 | 1.09 |
| simulation | NYY | 5 | Tim Hill | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 0.00 | 4.14 | 1.07 |
Pitch count summary
| team | pitcher | role | IP | R | H | BB | SO | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | Shane Baz | Starter | 5.2 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 25 | 103 |
| BAL | Rico Garcia | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| BAL | Andrew Kittredge | Closer | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| NYY | Elmer Rodríguez | Starter | 4.2 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 90 |
| NYY | Paul Blackburn | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 27 |
| NYY | Brent Headrick | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 16 |
| NYY | David Bednar | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| NYY | Tim Hill | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 19 |
Audit rule catalog
| rule | status | critical | error | warning | pass | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATTING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints. |
| BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines. |
| BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts. |
| CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate. |
| CONFIDENCE_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | Confidence values are between 0 and 1. |
| CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup. |
| CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions. |
| CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance has usable player names. |
| CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled. |
| CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. |
| CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs. |
| DATE_PARSE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Game date can be parsed as an ISO date. |
| FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename and game_id identify the same game. |
| FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON. |
| FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner. |
| GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game_summary text agrees with final score. |
| GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner. |
| H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode. |
| INNINGS_COUNT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning count is valid for MLB. |
| INNING_OUTS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Each played half inning has valid outs. |
| INNING_PLAY_SUMS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches. |
| INNING_SEQUENCE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Innings are sequential and unique. |
| INNING_TOTAL_HITS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning hits sum to batting team hits. |
| INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning runs sum to final score. |
| LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent. |
| MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence. |
| OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards. |
| PA_BF_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced. |
| PIPELINE_VERSION | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them. |
| PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced. |
| PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds. |
| PITCHING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints. |
| PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines. |
| PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score. |
| PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals. |
| PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values. |
| PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result. |
| RECENT_FORM_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges. |
| RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score. |
| REPORT_COMPLETE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table. |
| REPORT_CSV_EXPORT | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows. |
| RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting/pitching runs agree with final score. |
| SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited. |
| SCORE_NO_TIE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final MLB score has a clear winner. |
| SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | score_evolution simulation_result matches final score. |
| SCORE_STEP_ORDER | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. |
| SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded. |
| STARTER_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected. |
| SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays. |
| TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target. |
| TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed. |
| TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | total_runs equals away + home runs. |
| WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | winner field agrees with the final score. |
20260927_CHC@BOS
20260927_CHC@BOS.json • 2026-09-27
CHC 4 - BOS 3
ERRORFinal simulation is close, but errors remain. Risk score: 80.
CRITICAL 0ERROR 2WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7
Action summary - what to fix first
| Level | Problem group / fix | Count | Teams | Example |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ERROR | Pitching Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule. | 0C / 2E / 0W | BOS | current:BOS has implausible starter workload/result line(s): Tanner Houck: 1.0 IP starter outing simulation:BOS has implausible starter workload/result line(s): Tanner Houck: 1.0 IP starter outing |
Problems table - exact rows
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ERROR | pitching | current | BOS | PITCHING_REALISM | current:BOS has implausible starter workload/result line(s): Tanner Houck: 1.0 IP starter outing | |||
| ERROR | pitching | simulation | BOS | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:BOS has implausible starter workload/result line(s): Tanner Houck: 1.0 IP starter outing |
All findings - complete audit trail
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ERROR | pitching | current | BOS | PITCHING_REALISM | current:BOS has implausible starter workload/result line(s): Tanner Houck: 1.0 IP starter outing | |||
| ERROR | pitching | simulation | BOS | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:BOS has implausible starter workload/result line(s): Tanner Houck: 1.0 IP starter outing | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | BOS | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | BOS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | CHC | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | CHC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | BOS | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | BOS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=32; H: current=8, sim=5; 2B: current=2, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=2, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=5). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | BOS | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | BOS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Willson Contreras: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Roman Anthony: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Adley Rutschman: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Wilyer Abreu: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Ceddanne Rafaela: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Andruw Monasterio: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Nick Sogard: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Caleb Durbin: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CHC | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | CHC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=35; HR: current=1, sim=2; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=6). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CHC | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | CHC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Alex Bregman: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Michael Conforto: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1; Ian Happ: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Pedro Ramirez: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Michael Busch: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Nico Hoerner: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Pete Crow-Armstrong: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Dansby Swanson: H current=1 box=2, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. | |||||
| PASS | batting | current | BOS | BATTING_REALISM | current:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | CHC | BATTING_REALISM | current:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | BOS | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | CHC | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | BOS | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | CHC | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | BOS | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | CHC | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BOS | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:BOS batting walks match CHC pitching: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BOS | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:BOS batting home runs match CHC pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BOS | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:BOS batting hits match CHC pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BOS | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:BOS batting strikeouts match CHC pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BOS | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:BOS PA=36 matches CHC BF=36. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BOS | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:BOS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHC | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:CHC batting walks match BOS pitching: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHC | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:CHC batting home runs match BOS pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHC | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:CHC batting hits match BOS pitching: 8. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHC | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:CHC batting strikeouts match BOS pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHC | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:CHC PA=39 matches BOS BF=39. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHC | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:CHC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.460 -> 0.501 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.4601, 'sample_size': 543, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5414, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.50075, 'published_confidence': 0.505149, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | BOS | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | BOS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | CHC | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | CHC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | BOS | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | BOS current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | BOS | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | BOS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | BOS | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | BOS current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | BOS | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | BOS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CHC | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | CHC current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CHC | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | CHC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CHC | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | CHC current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CHC | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | CHC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.505. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.505. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.495. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.554/0.749. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: CHC 8, BOS 5. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: CHC 4 - BOS 3. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CHC. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for CHC; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result; latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'opponent_team': 'BOS', 'h2h_net_margin': -3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-25', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'BOS'}, {'date': '2026-09-25', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'BOS'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260925', 'away': 'CHC', 'home': 'BOS', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'actual_winner': 'BOS', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.505, 'artifact': '20260925_CHC@BOS.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260925', 'away': 'CHC', 'home': 'BOS', 'game_number': 2, 'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'actual_winner': 'BOS', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.557003, 'artifact': '20260925_CHC@BOS_2.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'CHC', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'BOS', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'output_opponent_team': 'BOS', 'simulation_score_winner': 'CHC', 'final_score_winner': 'CHC', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'CHC 4 - 3 BOS', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'CHC 4 - 3 BOS', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0533, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.326, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'CHC', 'model_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'CHC', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'CHC', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.2607, 'winner': 'CHC', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-27. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260927_CHC@BOS. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: CHC@BOS. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 2, 'sample_weight': 0.03, 'home_net_margin': 3.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 3.0, 'home_average_margin': 1.5, 'home_run_delta': 0.0225, 'away_run_delta': -0.0225, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.029383700649558718}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02778001810339291}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.02741811341741829}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02710160893474656}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.026608606813468372}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.09172854398067469, '1': 0.13237168861944973, '2': 0.1635412816131467, '3': 0.17298217894893925, '4': 0.15664517006500592, '5': 0.12144351604917995, '6': 0.08060710710699964, '7': 0.045805119074394954, '8': 0.022284165566779278, '9': 0.009281548006219121, '10': 0.003309680969210848}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.0879746086753731, '1': 0.1272878479517881, '2': 0.15850253236497586, '3': 0.16986547879150127, '4': 0.15667283820460137, '5': 0.12436608278195374, '6': 0.08496300432101335, '7': 0.04995482331988761, '8': 0.025278113226768803, '9': 0.01100858609825407, '10': 0.004126084263882452}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.25, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.3882, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.024, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.2607} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'CHC 4 - 3 BOS', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'CHC 4 - 3 BOS', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0533, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.326, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'CHC', 'model_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'CHC', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'CHC', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.2607, 'winner': 'CHC', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 150. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 165. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | BOS | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | BOS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | BOS | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | BOS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 165. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | CHC | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | CHC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | CHC | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | CHC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 150. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | BOS | PITCHING_REALISM | current:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | BOS | STARTER_PRESENT | current:BOS includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | CHC | PITCHING_REALISM | current:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | CHC | STARTER_PRESENT | current:CHC includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | BOS | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | BOS | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:BOS includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | CHC | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | CHC | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:CHC includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | BOS | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | BOS | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | CHC | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | CHC | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | BOS | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | BOS | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | CHC | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | CHC | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CHC 4 - 3 BOS. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: CHC 4 - 3 BOS. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: CHC wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=CHC, simulation=CHC, published=CHC. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.505. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): CHC wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: CHC wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-3, final 4-3 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 7. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: CHC wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | BOS | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | BOS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | BOS | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | BOS wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | CHC | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | CHC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | CHC | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | CHC wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. |
Passed checks
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PASS | batting | current | BOS | BATTING_REALISM | current:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | CHC | BATTING_REALISM | current:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | BOS | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | CHC | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | BOS | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | CHC | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | BOS | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | CHC | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BOS | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:BOS batting walks match CHC pitching: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BOS | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:BOS batting home runs match CHC pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BOS | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:BOS batting hits match CHC pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BOS | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:BOS batting strikeouts match CHC pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BOS | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:BOS PA=36 matches CHC BF=36. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BOS | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:BOS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHC | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:CHC batting walks match BOS pitching: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHC | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:CHC batting home runs match BOS pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHC | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:CHC batting hits match BOS pitching: 8. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHC | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:CHC batting strikeouts match BOS pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHC | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:CHC PA=39 matches BOS BF=39. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHC | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:CHC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.460 -> 0.501 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.4601, 'sample_size': 543, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5414, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.50075, 'published_confidence': 0.505149, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | BOS | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | BOS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | CHC | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | CHC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | BOS | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | BOS current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | BOS | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | BOS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | BOS | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | BOS current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | BOS | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | BOS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CHC | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | CHC current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CHC | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | CHC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CHC | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | CHC current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CHC | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | CHC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.505. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.505. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.495. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.554/0.749. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: CHC 8, BOS 5. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: CHC 4 - BOS 3. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CHC. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for CHC; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result; latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'opponent_team': 'BOS', 'h2h_net_margin': -3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-25', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'BOS'}, {'date': '2026-09-25', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'BOS'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260925', 'away': 'CHC', 'home': 'BOS', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'actual_winner': 'BOS', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.505, 'artifact': '20260925_CHC@BOS.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260925', 'away': 'CHC', 'home': 'BOS', 'game_number': 2, 'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'actual_winner': 'BOS', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.557003, 'artifact': '20260925_CHC@BOS_2.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'CHC', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'BOS', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'output_opponent_team': 'BOS', 'simulation_score_winner': 'CHC', 'final_score_winner': 'CHC', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'CHC 4 - 3 BOS', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'CHC 4 - 3 BOS', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0533, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.326, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'CHC', 'model_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'CHC', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'CHC', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.2607, 'winner': 'CHC', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-27. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260927_CHC@BOS. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: CHC@BOS. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 2, 'sample_weight': 0.03, 'home_net_margin': 3.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 3.0, 'home_average_margin': 1.5, 'home_run_delta': 0.0225, 'away_run_delta': -0.0225, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.029383700649558718}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02778001810339291}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.02741811341741829}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02710160893474656}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.026608606813468372}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.09172854398067469, '1': 0.13237168861944973, '2': 0.1635412816131467, '3': 0.17298217894893925, '4': 0.15664517006500592, '5': 0.12144351604917995, '6': 0.08060710710699964, '7': 0.045805119074394954, '8': 0.022284165566779278, '9': 0.009281548006219121, '10': 0.003309680969210848}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.0879746086753731, '1': 0.1272878479517881, '2': 0.15850253236497586, '3': 0.16986547879150127, '4': 0.15667283820460137, '5': 0.12436608278195374, '6': 0.08496300432101335, '7': 0.04995482331988761, '8': 0.025278113226768803, '9': 0.01100858609825407, '10': 0.004126084263882452}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.25, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.3882, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.024, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.2607} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'CHC 4 - 3 BOS', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'CHC 4 - 3 BOS', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0533, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.326, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'CHC', 'model_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'CHC', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'CHC', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.2607, 'winner': 'CHC', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 150. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 165. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | BOS | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | BOS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | BOS | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | BOS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 165. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | CHC | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | CHC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | CHC | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | CHC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 150. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | BOS | PITCHING_REALISM | current:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | BOS | STARTER_PRESENT | current:BOS includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | CHC | PITCHING_REALISM | current:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | CHC | STARTER_PRESENT | current:CHC includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | BOS | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | BOS | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:BOS includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | CHC | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | CHC | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:CHC includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | BOS | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | BOS | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | CHC | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | CHC | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | BOS | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | BOS | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | CHC | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | CHC | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CHC 4 - 3 BOS. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: CHC 4 - 3 BOS. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: CHC wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=CHC, simulation=CHC, published=CHC. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.505. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): CHC wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: CHC wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-3, final 4-3 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 7. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: CHC wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | BOS | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | BOS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | BOS | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | BOS wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | CHC | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | CHC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | CHC | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | CHC wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. |
Info/context findings
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | BOS | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | BOS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | CHC | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | CHC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | BOS | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | BOS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=32; H: current=8, sim=5; 2B: current=2, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=2, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=5). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | BOS | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | BOS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Willson Contreras: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Roman Anthony: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Adley Rutschman: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Wilyer Abreu: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Ceddanne Rafaela: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Andruw Monasterio: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Nick Sogard: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Caleb Durbin: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CHC | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | CHC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=35; HR: current=1, sim=2; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=6). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CHC | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | CHC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Alex Bregman: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Michael Conforto: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1; Ian Happ: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Pedro Ramirez: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Michael Busch: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Nico Hoerner: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Pete Crow-Armstrong: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Dansby Swanson: H current=1 box=2, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. |
Score evolution
| step | away_runs | home_runs | confidence | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| historical_ml | 3.9923887695800966 | 4.516311014594185 | Base ML historical model prediction | |
| variance_applied | 4 | 5 | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) | |
| enhanced_prediction | 4 | 3 | 0.505 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail) |
| embedded_savant_run_environment | 4 | 3 | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality | |
| fundamental_edge_target_review | 4 | 3 | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments | |
| capped_target | 4 | 3 | Capped at max 12 realistic runs | |
| simulation_result | 4 | 3 | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
Inning-by-inning linescore
| team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 |
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
Team totals - current + final simulation
| src | team | type | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | SO | SF | HBP | SB | CS | IP | ER | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | CHC | batting | 33 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | CHC | pitching | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 9.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| current | BOS | batting | 34 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | BOS | pitching | 8 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 9.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| simulation | CHC | batting | 35 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | CHC | pitching | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 9.0 | 3 | 36 | 150 | |||||||||
| simulation | BOS | batting | 32 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | BOS | pitching | 8 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 9.0 | 4 | 39 | 165 |
Batting lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | pos | name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | CHC | DH | Alex Bregman | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CHC | RF | Michael Conforto | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | CHC | LF | Ian Happ | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CHC | 3B | Pedro Ramirez | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CHC | 1B | Michael Busch | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CHC | 2B | Nico Hoerner | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CHC | CF | Pete Crow-Armstrong | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CHC | SS | Dansby Swanson | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | CHC | C | Miguel Amaya | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | BOS | DH | Willson Contreras | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | BOS | LF | Roman Anthony | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | BOS | C | Adley Rutschman | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | BOS | RF | Wilyer Abreu | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | BOS | CF | Ceddanne Rafaela | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | BOS | 1B | Andruw Monasterio | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | BOS | 2B | Nick Sogard | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | BOS | 3B | Caleb Durbin | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | BOS | SS | Trevor Story | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| simulation | CHC | 1 | CF | Pete Crow-Armstrong | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | CHC | 2 | DH | Alex Bregman | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.200 |
| simulation | CHC | 3 | 1B | Michael Busch | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | CHC | 4 | LF | Ian Happ | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | CHC | 5 | RF | Michael Conforto | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | CHC | 6 | 2B | Nico Hoerner | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | CHC | 7 | 3B | Pedro Ramirez | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | CHC | 8 | SS | Dansby Swanson | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 |
| simulation | CHC | 9 | C | Miguel Amaya | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | BOS | 1 | LF | Roman Anthony | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | BOS | 2 | C | Adley Rutschman | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | BOS | 3 | DH | Willson Contreras | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | BOS | 4 | RF | Wilyer Abreu | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | BOS | 5 | CF | Ceddanne Rafaela | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | BOS | 6 | 2B | Nick Sogard | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | BOS | 7 | 3B | Caleb Durbin | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | BOS | 8 | SS | Trevor Story | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | BOS | 9 | 1B | Andruw Monasterio | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | name | role | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | BF | Pitches | sim_ERA | season_ERA | season_WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | CHC | 1 | Shota Imanaga | Starter | 5.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.59 | 3.74 | 1.10 |
| current | CHC | 2 | Daniel Palencia | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.34 | 1.11 |
| current | CHC | 3 | Jacob Webb | Closer | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9.00 | 3.41 | 1.27 |
| current | CHC | 4 | Ryan Zeferjahn | Setup Man | 1.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.75 | 3.88 | 1.28 |
| current | BOS | 1 | Tanner Houck | Starter | 1.0 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 36.00 | ||
| current | BOS | 2 | Aroldis Chapman | Closer | 3.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.39 | 1.05 |
| current | BOS | 4 | Erik Miller | Setup Man | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.81 | 1.32 |
| current | BOS | 5 | Garrett Whitlock | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.72 | 0.90 |
| current | BOS | 6 | Greg Weissert | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.12 | 1.19 |
| simulation | CHC | 1 | Shota Imanaga | Starter | 5.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 22 | 94 | 1.59 | 3.74 | 1.10 |
| simulation | CHC | 2 | Jacob Webb | Closer | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 9.00 | 3.41 | 1.27 |
| simulation | CHC | 3 | Ryan Zeferjahn | Setup Man | 1.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 27 | 6.75 | 3.88 | 1.28 |
| simulation | CHC | 4 | Daniel Palencia | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 3.34 | 1.11 |
| simulation | BOS | 1 | Tanner Houck | Starter | 1.0 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 53 | 36.00 | ||
| simulation | BOS | 2 | Aroldis Chapman | Closer | 3.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 57 | 0.00 | 1.39 | 1.05 |
| simulation | BOS | 3 | Erik Miller | Setup Man | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 0.00 | 2.81 | 1.32 |
| simulation | BOS | 4 | Garrett Whitlock | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 0.00 | 1.72 | 0.90 |
| simulation | BOS | 5 | Greg Weissert | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 0.00 | 3.12 | 1.19 |
Pitch count summary
| team | pitcher | role | IP | R | H | BB | SO | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | Shota Imanaga | Starter | 5.2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 22 | 94 |
| CHC | Daniel Palencia | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
| CHC | Jacob Webb | Closer | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 16 |
| CHC | Ryan Zeferjahn | Setup Man | 1.1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 27 |
| BOS | Tanner Houck | Starter | 1.0 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 53 |
| BOS | Aroldis Chapman | Closer | 3.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 57 |
| BOS | Erik Miller | Setup Man | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 17 |
| BOS | Garrett Whitlock | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 21 |
| BOS | Greg Weissert | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 17 |
Audit rule catalog
| rule | status | critical | error | warning | pass | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATTING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints. |
| BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines. |
| BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts. |
| CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate. |
| CONFIDENCE_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | Confidence values are between 0 and 1. |
| CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup. |
| CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions. |
| CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance has usable player names. |
| CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled. |
| CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. |
| CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs. |
| DATE_PARSE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Game date can be parsed as an ISO date. |
| FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename and game_id identify the same game. |
| FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON. |
| FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner. |
| GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game_summary text agrees with final score. |
| GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner. |
| H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode. |
| INNINGS_COUNT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning count is valid for MLB. |
| INNING_OUTS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Each played half inning has valid outs. |
| INNING_PLAY_SUMS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches. |
| INNING_SEQUENCE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Innings are sequential and unique. |
| INNING_TOTAL_HITS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning hits sum to batting team hits. |
| INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning runs sum to final score. |
| LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent. |
| MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence. |
| OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards. |
| PA_BF_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced. |
| PIPELINE_VERSION | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them. |
| PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced. |
| PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds. |
| PITCHING_REALISM | error | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints. |
| PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines. |
| PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score. |
| PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals. |
| PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values. |
| PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result. |
| RECENT_FORM_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges. |
| RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score. |
| REPORT_COMPLETE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table. |
| REPORT_CSV_EXPORT | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows. |
| RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting/pitching runs agree with final score. |
| SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited. |
| SCORE_NO_TIE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final MLB score has a clear winner. |
| SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | score_evolution simulation_result matches final score. |
| SCORE_STEP_ORDER | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. |
| SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded. |
| STARTER_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected. |
| SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays. |
| TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target. |
| TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed. |
| TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | total_runs equals away + home runs. |
| WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | winner field agrees with the final score. |
20260927_CIN@TOR
20260927_CIN@TOR.json • 2026-09-27
CIN 4 - TOR 5
PASSClean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.
CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7
No action required
No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.
Problems table - exact rows
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|
All findings - complete audit trail
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | CIN | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | CIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | TOR | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | TOR pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CIN | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | CIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=6; HR: current=1, sim=0). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CIN | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | CIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Elly De La Cruz: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Juan Brito: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Héctor Rodríguez: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Carlos Jorge: R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; JJ Bleday: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Oswaldo Cabrera: AB current=3 box=4; Matt McLain: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Sal Stewart: H current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | TOR | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | TOR model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=30, sim=34; H: current=7, sim=8; 2B: current=2, sim=3; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=4, sim=2; SO: current=7, sim=12). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | TOR | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | TOR current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Brett Bateman: AB current=4 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Charles McAdoo: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; George Springer: AB current=4 box=5, BB current=1 box=0; Kazuma Okamoto: RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Davis Schneider: AB current=3 box=4, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Brandon Valenzuela: AB current=3 box=4, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Myles Straw: H current=0 box=1, 3B current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Andrés Giménez: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. | |||||
| PASS | batting | current | CIN | BATTING_REALISM | current:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | TOR | BATTING_REALISM | current:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | CIN | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | TOR | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | CIN | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | TOR | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | CIN | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | TOR | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CIN | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:CIN batting walks match TOR pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CIN | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:CIN batting home runs match TOR pitching: 0. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CIN | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:CIN batting hits match TOR pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CIN | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:CIN batting strikeouts match TOR pitching: 8. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CIN | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:CIN PA=36 matches TOR BF=36. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CIN | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:CIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TOR | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:TOR batting walks match CIN pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TOR | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:TOR batting home runs match CIN pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TOR | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:TOR batting hits match CIN pitching: 8. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TOR | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:TOR batting strikeouts match CIN pitching: 12. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TOR | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:TOR PA=37 matches CIN BF=37. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TOR | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:TOR runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.510 -> 0.533 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5101, 'sample_size': 778, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5566, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.53335, 'published_confidence': 0.511591, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | CIN | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | CIN current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | TOR | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | TOR current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CIN | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | CIN current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CIN | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | CIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CIN | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | CIN current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CIN | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | CIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TOR | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | TOR current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TOR | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | TOR current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TOR | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | TOR current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TOR | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | TOR hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.488. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.512. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.512. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.503/0.690. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: CIN 6, TOR 8. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: CIN 4 - TOR 5. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: TOR. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for TOR; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result; latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'TOR', 'opponent_team': 'CIN', 'h2h_net_margin': -3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-26', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -4, 'winner': 'CIN'}, {'date': '2026-09-25', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'TOR'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260926', 'away': 'CIN', 'home': 'TOR', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TOR', 'actual_winner': 'CIN', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.619523, 'artifact': '20260926_CIN@TOR.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260925', 'away': 'CIN', 'home': 'TOR', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TOR', 'actual_winner': 'TOR', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.635849, 'artifact': '20260925_CIN@TOR.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'TOR', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CIN', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'TOR', 'output_opponent_team': 'CIN', 'simulation_score_winner': 'TOR', 'final_score_winner': 'TOR', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'TOR', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'CIN 4 - 5 TOR', 'winner': 'TOR'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'CIN 4 - 5 TOR', 'winner': 'TOR'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.1154, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.408, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'TOR', 'model_winner': 'TOR', 'simulation_winner': 'TOR', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'TOR', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.3033, 'winner': 'TOR', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-27. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260927_CIN@TOR. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: CIN@TOR. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 2, 'sample_weight': 0.03, 'home_net_margin': -3.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 3.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.5, 'home_run_delta': -0.0225, 'away_run_delta': 0.0225, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.019257563954809338}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.018711973556305998}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.018498638556385873}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.018000695984678388}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.0179745494449369}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.05397739188979234, '1': 0.07987266282782957, '2': 0.10639407062351858, '3': 0.127576205837264, '4': 0.13770665636471252, '5': 0.13380525794802323, '6': 0.11703733404877903, '7': 0.09215282564633, '8': 0.06531694848338757, '9': 0.041675048337690326, '10': 0.02393642748071255, '11': 0.012375864541144685, '12': 0.005760030152038387, '13': 0.002413275818777227}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.05594437241598566, '1': 0.08267788516162973, '2': 0.10971062226321912, '3': 0.1307176897607913, '4': 0.13984483004079468, '5': 0.13433365564691882, '6': 0.11586429347660589, '7': 0.08973064060056507, '8': 0.06239622063433038, '9': 0.038958494714177366, '10': 0.021840994905488992, '11': 0.0109943367043214, '12': 0.0049692633730431405, '13': 0.0020167003021286513}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.25, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.6863, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.408, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.3033} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'CIN 4 - 5 TOR', 'winner': 'TOR'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'CIN 4 - 5 TOR', 'winner': 'TOR'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.1154, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.408, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'TOR', 'model_winner': 'TOR', 'simulation_winner': 'TOR', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'TOR', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.3033, 'winner': 'TOR', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 160. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 148. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | CIN | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | CIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | CIN | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | CIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 160. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | TOR | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | TOR pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | TOR | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | TOR pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 148. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 10 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | CIN | PITCHING_REALISM | current:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | CIN | STARTER_PRESENT | current:CIN includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | TOR | PITCHING_REALISM | current:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | TOR | STARTER_PRESENT | current:TOR includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | CIN | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | CIN | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:CIN includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | TOR | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | TOR | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:TOR includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | CIN | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | CIN | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | TOR | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | TOR | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | CIN | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.2. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | CIN | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | TOR | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | TOR | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CIN 4 - 5 TOR. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: CIN 4 - 5 TOR. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: TOR wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=TOR, simulation=TOR, published=TOR. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.512. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): TOR wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: TOR wins 4-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 4-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 9. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: TOR wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | CIN | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | CIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | CIN | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | CIN wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | TOR | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | TOR recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | TOR | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | TOR wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200. |
Passed checks
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PASS | batting | current | CIN | BATTING_REALISM | current:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | TOR | BATTING_REALISM | current:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | CIN | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | TOR | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | CIN | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | TOR | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | CIN | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | TOR | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CIN | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:CIN batting walks match TOR pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CIN | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:CIN batting home runs match TOR pitching: 0. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CIN | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:CIN batting hits match TOR pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CIN | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:CIN batting strikeouts match TOR pitching: 8. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CIN | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:CIN PA=36 matches TOR BF=36. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CIN | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:CIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TOR | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:TOR batting walks match CIN pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TOR | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:TOR batting home runs match CIN pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TOR | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:TOR batting hits match CIN pitching: 8. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TOR | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:TOR batting strikeouts match CIN pitching: 12. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TOR | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:TOR PA=37 matches CIN BF=37. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TOR | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:TOR runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.510 -> 0.533 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5101, 'sample_size': 778, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5566, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.53335, 'published_confidence': 0.511591, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | CIN | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | CIN current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | TOR | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | TOR current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CIN | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | CIN current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CIN | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | CIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CIN | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | CIN current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CIN | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | CIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TOR | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | TOR current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TOR | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | TOR current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TOR | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | TOR current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TOR | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | TOR hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.488. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.512. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.512. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.503/0.690. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: CIN 6, TOR 8. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: CIN 4 - TOR 5. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: TOR. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for TOR; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result; latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'TOR', 'opponent_team': 'CIN', 'h2h_net_margin': -3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-26', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -4, 'winner': 'CIN'}, {'date': '2026-09-25', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'TOR'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260926', 'away': 'CIN', 'home': 'TOR', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TOR', 'actual_winner': 'CIN', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.619523, 'artifact': '20260926_CIN@TOR.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260925', 'away': 'CIN', 'home': 'TOR', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TOR', 'actual_winner': 'TOR', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.635849, 'artifact': '20260925_CIN@TOR.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'TOR', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CIN', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'TOR', 'output_opponent_team': 'CIN', 'simulation_score_winner': 'TOR', 'final_score_winner': 'TOR', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'TOR', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'CIN 4 - 5 TOR', 'winner': 'TOR'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'CIN 4 - 5 TOR', 'winner': 'TOR'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.1154, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.408, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'TOR', 'model_winner': 'TOR', 'simulation_winner': 'TOR', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'TOR', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.3033, 'winner': 'TOR', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-27. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260927_CIN@TOR. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: CIN@TOR. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 2, 'sample_weight': 0.03, 'home_net_margin': -3.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 3.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.5, 'home_run_delta': -0.0225, 'away_run_delta': 0.0225, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.019257563954809338}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.018711973556305998}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.018498638556385873}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.018000695984678388}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.0179745494449369}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.05397739188979234, '1': 0.07987266282782957, '2': 0.10639407062351858, '3': 0.127576205837264, '4': 0.13770665636471252, '5': 0.13380525794802323, '6': 0.11703733404877903, '7': 0.09215282564633, '8': 0.06531694848338757, '9': 0.041675048337690326, '10': 0.02393642748071255, '11': 0.012375864541144685, '12': 0.005760030152038387, '13': 0.002413275818777227}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.05594437241598566, '1': 0.08267788516162973, '2': 0.10971062226321912, '3': 0.1307176897607913, '4': 0.13984483004079468, '5': 0.13433365564691882, '6': 0.11586429347660589, '7': 0.08973064060056507, '8': 0.06239622063433038, '9': 0.038958494714177366, '10': 0.021840994905488992, '11': 0.0109943367043214, '12': 0.0049692633730431405, '13': 0.0020167003021286513}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.25, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.6863, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.408, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.3033} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'CIN 4 - 5 TOR', 'winner': 'TOR'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'CIN 4 - 5 TOR', 'winner': 'TOR'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.1154, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.408, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'TOR', 'model_winner': 'TOR', 'simulation_winner': 'TOR', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'TOR', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.3033, 'winner': 'TOR', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 160. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 148. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | CIN | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | CIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | CIN | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | CIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 160. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | TOR | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | TOR pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | TOR | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | TOR pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 148. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 10 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | CIN | PITCHING_REALISM | current:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | CIN | STARTER_PRESENT | current:CIN includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | TOR | PITCHING_REALISM | current:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | TOR | STARTER_PRESENT | current:TOR includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | CIN | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | CIN | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:CIN includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | TOR | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | TOR | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:TOR includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | CIN | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | CIN | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | TOR | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | TOR | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | CIN | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.2. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | CIN | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | TOR | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | TOR | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CIN 4 - 5 TOR. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: CIN 4 - 5 TOR. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: TOR wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=TOR, simulation=TOR, published=TOR. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.512. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): TOR wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: TOR wins 4-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 4-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 9. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: TOR wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | CIN | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | CIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | CIN | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | CIN wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | TOR | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | TOR recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | TOR | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | TOR wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200. |
Info/context findings
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | CIN | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | CIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | TOR | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | TOR pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CIN | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | CIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=6; HR: current=1, sim=0). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CIN | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | CIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Elly De La Cruz: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Juan Brito: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Héctor Rodríguez: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Carlos Jorge: R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; JJ Bleday: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Oswaldo Cabrera: AB current=3 box=4; Matt McLain: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Sal Stewart: H current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | TOR | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | TOR model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=30, sim=34; H: current=7, sim=8; 2B: current=2, sim=3; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=4, sim=2; SO: current=7, sim=12). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | TOR | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | TOR current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Brett Bateman: AB current=4 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Charles McAdoo: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; George Springer: AB current=4 box=5, BB current=1 box=0; Kazuma Okamoto: RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Davis Schneider: AB current=3 box=4, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Brandon Valenzuela: AB current=3 box=4, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Myles Straw: H current=0 box=1, 3B current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Andrés Giménez: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. |
Score evolution
| step | away_runs | home_runs | confidence | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| historical_ml | 4.197209789573096 | 4.619419560292573 | Base ML historical model prediction | |
| variance_applied | 4 | 5 | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) | |
| enhanced_prediction | 4 | 5 | 0.512 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail) |
| embedded_savant_run_environment | 4 | 5 | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality | |
| fundamental_edge_target_review | 4 | 5 | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments | |
| capped_target | 4 | 5 | Capped at max 12 realistic runs | |
| simulation_result | 4 | 5 | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
Inning-by-inning linescore
| team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| TOR | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
Team totals - current + final simulation
| src | team | type | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | SO | SF | HBP | SB | CS | IP | ER | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | CIN | batting | 33 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | CIN | pitching | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 8.0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| current | TOR | batting | 30 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | TOR | pitching | 6 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 9.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| simulation | CIN | batting | 33 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | CIN | pitching | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 8.2 | 5 | 37 | 160 | |||||||||
| simulation | TOR | batting | 34 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 1 | |||||||
| simulation | TOR | pitching | 6 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 9.0 | 4 | 36 | 148 |
Batting lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | pos | name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | CIN | DH | Elly De La Cruz | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CIN | 3B | Juan Brito | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CIN | RF | Héctor Rodríguez | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CIN | CF | Carlos Jorge | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CIN | LF | JJ Bleday | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CIN | SS | Oswaldo Cabrera | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | CIN | 2B | Matt McLain | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | CIN | 1B | Sal Stewart | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CIN | C | Will Banfield | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | TOR | RF | Brett Bateman | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TOR | 1B | Charles McAdoo | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | TOR | DH | George Springer | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TOR | 3B | Kazuma Okamoto | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TOR | LF | Davis Schneider | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | TOR | C | Brandon Valenzuela | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | TOR | CF | Myles Straw | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | TOR | SS | Andrés Giménez | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | TOR | 2B | Ernie Clement | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| simulation | CIN | 1 | CF | Carlos Jorge | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | CIN | 2 | DH | Elly De La Cruz | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | CIN | 3 | 1B | Sal Stewart | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | CIN | 4 | LF | JJ Bleday | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | CIN | 5 | 3B | Juan Brito | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | CIN | 6 | RF | Héctor Rodríguez | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | CIN | 7 | 2B | Matt McLain | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | CIN | 8 | C | Will Banfield | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | CIN | 9 | SS | Oswaldo Cabrera | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | TOR | 1 | DH | George Springer | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.200 |
| simulation | TOR | 2 | RF | Brett Bateman | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 |
| simulation | TOR | 3 | 3B | Kazuma Okamoto | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | TOR | 4 | 1B | Charles McAdoo | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | TOR | 5 | LF | Davis Schneider | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | TOR | 6 | C | Brandon Valenzuela | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | TOR | 7 | CF | Myles Straw | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | TOR | 8 | SS | Andrés Giménez | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | TOR | 9 | 2B | Ernie Clement | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | name | role | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | BF | Pitches | sim_ERA | season_ERA | season_WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | CIN | 1 | Brandon Williamson | Starter | 4.1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.08 | 4.89 | 1.41 |
| current | CIN | 2 | Brock Burke | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.30 | 1.26 |
| current | CIN | 3 | Emilio Pagán | Closer | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18.00 | 3.38 | 1.03 |
| current | CIN | 4 | Tejay Antone | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18.00 | 2.62 | 1.04 |
| current | CIN | 5 | Luis Mey | Setup Man | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 6.42 | 1.69 |
| current | TOR | 1 | Max Scherzer | Starter | 5.0 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7.20 | 6.14 | 1.36 |
| current | TOR | 2 | Spencer Miles | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.63 | 1.10 |
| current | TOR | 3 | Louis Varland | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.27 | 1.00 |
| current | TOR | 4 | Tyler Rogers | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.77 | 1.17 |
| current | TOR | 5 | Mason Fluharty | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.92 | 1.18 |
| simulation | CIN | 1 | Brandon Williamson | Starter | 4.1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 20 | 80 | 2.08 | 4.89 | 1.41 |
| simulation | CIN | 2 | Emilio Pagán | Closer | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 18.00 | 3.38 | 1.03 |
| simulation | CIN | 3 | Luis Mey | Setup Man | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 0.00 | 6.42 | 1.69 |
| simulation | CIN | 4 | Brock Burke | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 25 | 0.00 | 2.30 | 1.26 |
| simulation | CIN | 5 | Tejay Antone | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 22 | 10.80 | 2.62 | 1.04 |
| simulation | TOR | 1 | Max Scherzer | Starter | 5.0 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 23 | 93 | 7.20 | 6.14 | 1.36 |
| simulation | TOR | 2 | Louis Varland | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 1.27 | 1.00 |
| simulation | TOR | 3 | Tyler Rogers | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 1.77 | 1.17 |
| simulation | TOR | 4 | Spencer Miles | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 0.00 | 2.63 | 1.10 |
| simulation | TOR | 5 | Mason Fluharty | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0.00 | 2.92 | 1.18 |
Pitch count summary
| team | pitcher | role | IP | R | H | BB | SO | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | Brandon Williamson | Starter | 4.1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 80 |
| CIN | Brock Burke | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 25 |
| CIN | Emilio Pagán | Closer | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 22 |
| CIN | Tejay Antone | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 22 |
| CIN | Luis Mey | Setup Man | 0.2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 |
| TOR | Max Scherzer | Starter | 5.0 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 93 |
| TOR | Spencer Miles | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 21 |
| TOR | Louis Varland | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| TOR | Tyler Rogers | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| TOR | Mason Fluharty | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
Audit rule catalog
| rule | status | critical | error | warning | pass | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATTING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints. |
| BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines. |
| BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts. |
| CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate. |
| CONFIDENCE_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | Confidence values are between 0 and 1. |
| CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup. |
| CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions. |
| CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance has usable player names. |
| CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled. |
| CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. |
| CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs. |
| DATE_PARSE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Game date can be parsed as an ISO date. |
| FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename and game_id identify the same game. |
| FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON. |
| FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner. |
| GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game_summary text agrees with final score. |
| GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner. |
| H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode. |
| INNINGS_COUNT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning count is valid for MLB. |
| INNING_OUTS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Each played half inning has valid outs. |
| INNING_PLAY_SUMS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches. |
| INNING_SEQUENCE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Innings are sequential and unique. |
| INNING_TOTAL_HITS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning hits sum to batting team hits. |
| INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning runs sum to final score. |
| LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent. |
| MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence. |
| OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards. |
| PA_BF_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced. |
| PIPELINE_VERSION | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them. |
| PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced. |
| PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds. |
| PITCHING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints. |
| PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines. |
| PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score. |
| PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals. |
| PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values. |
| PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result. |
| RECENT_FORM_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges. |
| RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score. |
| REPORT_COMPLETE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table. |
| REPORT_CSV_EXPORT | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows. |
| RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting/pitching runs agree with final score. |
| SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited. |
| SCORE_NO_TIE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final MLB score has a clear winner. |
| SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | score_evolution simulation_result matches final score. |
| SCORE_STEP_ORDER | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. |
| SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded. |
| STARTER_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected. |
| SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays. |
| TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target. |
| TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed. |
| TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | total_runs equals away + home runs. |
| WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | winner field agrees with the final score. |
20260927_CLE@KC
20260927_CLE@KC.json • 2026-09-27
CLE 6 - KC 4
PASSClean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.
CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 100INFO 8
No action required
No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.
Problems table - exact rows
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|
All findings - complete audit trail
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | CLE | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | CLE pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | KC | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | KC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CLE | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | CLE model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=35; 2B: current=2, sim=1; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=5). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CLE | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | CLE current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Angel Martínez: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Angel Genao: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Austin Hedges: 2B current=0 box=1; Daniel Schneemann: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Travis Bazzana: RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Jo Adell: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=1 box=0, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Nathaniel Lowe: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Petey Halpin: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | KC | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | KC model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=9, sim=8). | New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | KC | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | KC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=5; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=7, sim=8). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | KC | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | KC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jac Caglianone: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Maikel Garcia: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Bobby Witt Jr.: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0; Salvador Perez: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Tyler Tolbert: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=4; Vinnie Pasquantino: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Kyle Isbel: H current=1 box=0; Luke Maile: SO current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. | |||||
| PASS | batting | current | CLE | BATTING_REALISM | current:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | KC | BATTING_REALISM | current:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | CLE | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | KC | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | CLE | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | KC | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:KC batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | CLE | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | KC | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:KC batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CLE | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:CLE batting walks match KC pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CLE | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:CLE batting home runs match KC pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CLE | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:CLE batting hits match KC pitching: 8. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CLE | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:CLE batting strikeouts match KC pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CLE | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:CLE PA=40 matches KC BF=40. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CLE | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:CLE runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | KC | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:KC batting walks match CLE pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | KC | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:KC batting home runs match CLE pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | KC | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:KC batting hits match CLE pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | KC | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:KC batting strikeouts match CLE pitching: 8. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | KC | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:KC PA=34 matches CLE BF=34. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | KC | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:KC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.909 -> 0.734 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.909286, 'sample_size': 293, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5597, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.734493, 'published_confidence': 0.56, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | CLE | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | CLE current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CLE | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | CLE current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CLE | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | CLE current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CLE | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | CLE current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CLE | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | CLE hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | KC | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | KC current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | KC | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | KC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | KC | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | KC current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | KC | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | KC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.560. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.560. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.440. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 10 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.520/0.710. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: CLE 8, KC 5. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: CLE 6 - KC 4. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CLE. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for CLE; cap=0.56, reasons=local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'opponent_team': 'KC', 'h2h_net_margin': 19, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-26', 'predicted_team_runs': 11, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 6, 'winner': 'CLE'}, {'date': '2026-09-25', 'predicted_team_runs': 12, 'opponent_runs': 9, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'CLE'}, {'date': '2026-08-30', 'predicted_team_runs': 11, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 10, 'winner': 'CLE'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 5, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 3, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260926', 'away': 'CLE', 'home': 'KC', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'actual_winner': 'CLE', 'actual_margin': 6, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260926_CLE@KC.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260925', 'away': 'CLE', 'home': 'KC', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'actual_winner': 'CLE', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260925_CLE@KC.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260830', 'away': 'KC', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'actual_winner': 'CLE', 'actual_margin': 10, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260830_KC@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260829', 'away': 'KC', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'KC', 'actual_winner': 'KC', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.551806, 'artifact': '20260829_KC@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260828', 'away': 'KC', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'actual_winner': 'KC', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.573839, 'artifact': '20260828_KC@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'CLE', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'KC', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'output_opponent_team': 'KC', 'simulation_score_winner': 'CLE', 'final_score_winner': 'CLE', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CLE 6 - 4 KC', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CLE 6 - 4 KC', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.028, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -1.374, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'CLE', 'model_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'CLE', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'CLE', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.0963, 'winner': 'CLE', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-27. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260927_CLE@KC. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: CLE@KC. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -11.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 11.0, 'home_average_margin': -2.2, 'home_run_delta': -0.0635, 'away_run_delta': 0.0635, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -6.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -10.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.015994218656248508}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.01588013305600087}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.015528817648898347}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.01541805172024083}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.015027899452593833}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.06433843033623264, '1': 0.09456884162445255, '2': 0.12346428748350588, '3': 0.14316943673155677, '4': 0.14746024634650184, '5': 0.134901031588968, '6': 0.10961532181999464, '7': 0.07911210360178365, '8': 0.05071428172265698, '9': 0.028875751917359013, '10': 0.014603333450518294, '11': 0.006559736263846264, '12': 0.00261719711262357}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.026320551214493636, '1': 0.0396486066546728, '2': 0.05571693773903036, '3': 0.07304204236234586, '4': 0.0893274501038506, '5': 0.10191153090359892, '6': 0.10846461370114166, '7': 0.10769094348781812, '8': 0.09974626663402815, '9': 0.08618674460504351, '10': 0.06947213797931326, '11': 0.052240486325978316, '12': 0.03664629876953908, '13': 0.02398166789353912, '14': 0.014640469716201053, '15': 0.008337906035261224, '16': 0.00442981247801881, '17': 0.0021955333961254345}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.25, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.9845, 'recent_quality_edge': -1.304, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -1.0963} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CLE 6 - 4 KC', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CLE 6 - 4 KC', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.028, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -1.374, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'CLE', 'model_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'CLE', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'CLE', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.0963, 'winner': 'CLE', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 137. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 147. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | CLE | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | CLE pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | CLE | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | CLE pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 137. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | KC | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | KC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | KC | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | KC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 147. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | CLE | PITCHING_REALISM | current:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | CLE | STARTER_PRESENT | current:CLE includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | KC | PITCHING_REALISM | current:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | KC | STARTER_PRESENT | current:KC includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | CLE | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | CLE | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:CLE includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | KC | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | KC | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:KC includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | CLE | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | CLE | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | KC | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | KC | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | CLE | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | CLE | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | KC | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | KC | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CLE 6 - 4 KC. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: CLE 6 - 4 KC. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: CLE wins 6-4. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=CLE, simulation=CLE, published=CLE. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.560. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 9/10 (0.900). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 2/10 (0.200). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): CLE wins 6-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: CLE wins 6-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 6-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-4, final 6-4 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 10. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: CLE wins 6-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | CLE | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | CLE recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | CLE | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | CLE wins and win_pct agree: 8/10 = 0.800. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | KC | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | KC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | KC | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | KC wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200. |
Passed checks
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PASS | batting | current | CLE | BATTING_REALISM | current:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | KC | BATTING_REALISM | current:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | CLE | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | KC | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | CLE | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | KC | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:KC batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | CLE | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | KC | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:KC batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CLE | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:CLE batting walks match KC pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CLE | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:CLE batting home runs match KC pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CLE | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:CLE batting hits match KC pitching: 8. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CLE | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:CLE batting strikeouts match KC pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CLE | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:CLE PA=40 matches KC BF=40. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CLE | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:CLE runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | KC | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:KC batting walks match CLE pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | KC | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:KC batting home runs match CLE pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | KC | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:KC batting hits match CLE pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | KC | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:KC batting strikeouts match CLE pitching: 8. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | KC | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:KC PA=34 matches CLE BF=34. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | KC | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:KC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.909 -> 0.734 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.909286, 'sample_size': 293, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5597, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.734493, 'published_confidence': 0.56, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | CLE | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | CLE current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CLE | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | CLE current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CLE | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | CLE current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CLE | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | CLE current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CLE | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | CLE hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | KC | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | KC current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | KC | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | KC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | KC | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | KC current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | KC | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | KC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.560. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.560. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.440. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 10 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.520/0.710. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: CLE 8, KC 5. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: CLE 6 - KC 4. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CLE. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for CLE; cap=0.56, reasons=local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'opponent_team': 'KC', 'h2h_net_margin': 19, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-26', 'predicted_team_runs': 11, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 6, 'winner': 'CLE'}, {'date': '2026-09-25', 'predicted_team_runs': 12, 'opponent_runs': 9, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'CLE'}, {'date': '2026-08-30', 'predicted_team_runs': 11, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 10, 'winner': 'CLE'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 5, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 3, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260926', 'away': 'CLE', 'home': 'KC', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'actual_winner': 'CLE', 'actual_margin': 6, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260926_CLE@KC.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260925', 'away': 'CLE', 'home': 'KC', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'actual_winner': 'CLE', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260925_CLE@KC.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260830', 'away': 'KC', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'actual_winner': 'CLE', 'actual_margin': 10, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260830_KC@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260829', 'away': 'KC', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'KC', 'actual_winner': 'KC', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.551806, 'artifact': '20260829_KC@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260828', 'away': 'KC', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'actual_winner': 'KC', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.573839, 'artifact': '20260828_KC@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'CLE', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'KC', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'output_opponent_team': 'KC', 'simulation_score_winner': 'CLE', 'final_score_winner': 'CLE', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CLE 6 - 4 KC', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CLE 6 - 4 KC', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.028, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -1.374, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'CLE', 'model_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'CLE', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'CLE', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.0963, 'winner': 'CLE', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-27. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260927_CLE@KC. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: CLE@KC. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -11.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 11.0, 'home_average_margin': -2.2, 'home_run_delta': -0.0635, 'away_run_delta': 0.0635, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -6.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -10.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.015994218656248508}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.01588013305600087}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.015528817648898347}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.01541805172024083}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.015027899452593833}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.06433843033623264, '1': 0.09456884162445255, '2': 0.12346428748350588, '3': 0.14316943673155677, '4': 0.14746024634650184, '5': 0.134901031588968, '6': 0.10961532181999464, '7': 0.07911210360178365, '8': 0.05071428172265698, '9': 0.028875751917359013, '10': 0.014603333450518294, '11': 0.006559736263846264, '12': 0.00261719711262357}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.026320551214493636, '1': 0.0396486066546728, '2': 0.05571693773903036, '3': 0.07304204236234586, '4': 0.0893274501038506, '5': 0.10191153090359892, '6': 0.10846461370114166, '7': 0.10769094348781812, '8': 0.09974626663402815, '9': 0.08618674460504351, '10': 0.06947213797931326, '11': 0.052240486325978316, '12': 0.03664629876953908, '13': 0.02398166789353912, '14': 0.014640469716201053, '15': 0.008337906035261224, '16': 0.00442981247801881, '17': 0.0021955333961254345}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.25, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.9845, 'recent_quality_edge': -1.304, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -1.0963} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CLE 6 - 4 KC', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CLE 6 - 4 KC', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.028, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -1.374, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'CLE', 'model_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'CLE', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'CLE', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.0963, 'winner': 'CLE', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 137. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 147. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | CLE | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | CLE pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | CLE | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | CLE pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 137. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | KC | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | KC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | KC | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | KC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 147. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | CLE | PITCHING_REALISM | current:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | CLE | STARTER_PRESENT | current:CLE includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | KC | PITCHING_REALISM | current:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | KC | STARTER_PRESENT | current:KC includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | CLE | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | CLE | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:CLE includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | KC | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | KC | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:KC includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | CLE | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | CLE | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | KC | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | KC | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | CLE | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | CLE | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | KC | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | KC | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CLE 6 - 4 KC. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: CLE 6 - 4 KC. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: CLE wins 6-4. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=CLE, simulation=CLE, published=CLE. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.560. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 9/10 (0.900). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 2/10 (0.200). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): CLE wins 6-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: CLE wins 6-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 6-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-4, final 6-4 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 10. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: CLE wins 6-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | CLE | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | CLE recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | CLE | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | CLE wins and win_pct agree: 8/10 = 0.800. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | KC | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | KC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | KC | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | KC wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200. |
Info/context findings
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | CLE | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | CLE pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | KC | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | KC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CLE | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | CLE model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=35; 2B: current=2, sim=1; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=5). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CLE | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | CLE current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Angel Martínez: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Angel Genao: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Austin Hedges: 2B current=0 box=1; Daniel Schneemann: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Travis Bazzana: RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Jo Adell: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=1 box=0, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Nathaniel Lowe: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Petey Halpin: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | KC | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | KC model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=9, sim=8). | New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | KC | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | KC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=5; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=7, sim=8). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | KC | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | KC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jac Caglianone: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Maikel Garcia: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Bobby Witt Jr.: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0; Salvador Perez: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Tyler Tolbert: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=4; Vinnie Pasquantino: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Kyle Isbel: H current=1 box=0; Luke Maile: SO current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. |
Score evolution
| step | away_runs | home_runs | confidence | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| historical_ml | 4.616792826983626 | 3.5910432844055933 | Base ML historical model prediction | |
| variance_applied | 5 | 4 | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) | |
| enhanced_prediction | 6 | 4 | 0.560 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail) |
| embedded_savant_run_environment | 6 | 4 | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality | |
| fundamental_edge_target_review | 6 | 4 | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments | |
| capped_target | 6 | 4 | Capped at max 12 realistic runs | |
| simulation_result | 6 | 4 | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
Inning-by-inning linescore
| team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 8 |
| KC | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 |
Team totals - current + final simulation
| src | team | type | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | SO | SF | HBP | SB | CS | IP | ER | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | CLE | batting | 32 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | CLE | pitching | 5 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 9.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| current | KC | batting | 32 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | KC | pitching | 9 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 9.0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| simulation | CLE | batting | 35 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | CLE | pitching | 5 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 9.0 | 4 | 34 | 137 | |||||||||
| simulation | KC | batting | 32 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | KC | pitching | 8 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 9.0 | 6 | 40 | 147 |
Batting lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | pos | name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | CLE | LF | Angel Martínez | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CLE | C | David Fry | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | CLE | SS | Angel Genao | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CLE | DH | Austin Hedges | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | CLE | 3B | Daniel Schneemann | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | CLE | 2B | Travis Bazzana | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CLE | RF | Jo Adell | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CLE | 1B | Nathaniel Lowe | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CLE | CF | Petey Halpin | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | KC | RF | Jac Caglianone | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | KC | 3B | Maikel Garcia | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | KC | SS | Bobby Witt Jr. | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | KC | DH | Salvador Perez | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | KC | 2B | Tyler Tolbert | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | KC | 1B | Vinnie Pasquantino | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | KC | CF | Kyle Isbel | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | KC | C | Luke Maile | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | KC | LF | Isaac Collins | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| simulation | CLE | 1 | LF | Angel Martínez | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | CLE | 2 | 2B | Travis Bazzana | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | CLE | 3 | RF | Jo Adell | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.200 |
| simulation | CLE | 4 | 1B | Nathaniel Lowe | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | CLE | 5 | C | David Fry | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | CLE | 6 | SS | Angel Genao | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | CLE | 7 | DH | Austin Hedges | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | CLE | 8 | 3B | Daniel Schneemann | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | CLE | 9 | CF | Petey Halpin | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | KC | 1 | 3B | Maikel Garcia | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | KC | 2 | SS | Bobby Witt Jr. | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | KC | 3 | RF | Jac Caglianone | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | KC | 4 | DH | Salvador Perez | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | KC | 5 | 1B | Vinnie Pasquantino | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | KC | 6 | LF | Isaac Collins | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | KC | 7 | 2B | Tyler Tolbert | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | KC | 8 | CF | Kyle Isbel | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | KC | 9 | C | Luke Maile | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | name | role | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | BF | Pitches | sim_ERA | season_ERA | season_WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | CLE | 1 | Parker Messick | Starter | 6.1 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4.26 | 2.55 | 1.04 |
| current | CLE | 2 | Cade Smith | Closer | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.95 | 0.96 |
| current | CLE | 4 | Hunter Gaddis | Setup Man | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9.00 | 2.83 | 1.21 |
| current | KC | 1 | Daniel Lynch IV | Starter | 5.1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.69 | 4.13 | 1.14 |
| current | KC | 2 | Alex Lange | Setup Man | 1.0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27.00 | 6.75 | 1.63 |
| current | KC | 3 | Connor Thomas | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.00 | 7.40 | 1.68 |
| current | KC | 4 | Nate Pearson | Closer | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9.00 | 4.17 | 1.37 |
| current | KC | 5 | Anthony Gose | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.66 | 0.95 |
| simulation | CLE | 1 | Parker Messick | Starter | 6.1 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 24 | 96 | 4.26 | 2.55 | 1.04 |
| simulation | CLE | 2 | Cade Smith | Closer | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 0.00 | 1.95 | 0.96 |
| simulation | CLE | 3 | Hunter Gaddis | Setup Man | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 9.00 | 2.83 | 1.21 |
| simulation | KC | 1 | Daniel Lynch IV | Starter | 5.1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 22 | 88 | 1.69 | 4.13 | 1.14 |
| simulation | KC | 2 | Nate Pearson | Closer | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 9.00 | 4.17 | 1.37 |
| simulation | KC | 3 | Alex Lange | Setup Man | 1.0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 22 | 27.00 | 6.75 | 1.63 |
| simulation | KC | 4 | Connor Thomas | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 9.00 | 7.40 | 1.68 |
| simulation | KC | 5 | Anthony Gose | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0.00 | 0.66 | 0.95 |
Pitch count summary
| team | pitcher | role | IP | R | H | BB | SO | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | Parker Messick | Starter | 6.1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 24 | 96 |
| CLE | Cade Smith | Closer | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 25 |
| CLE | Hunter Gaddis | Setup Man | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 16 |
| KC | Daniel Lynch IV | Starter | 5.1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 22 | 88 |
| KC | Alex Lange | Setup Man | 1.0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 22 |
| KC | Connor Thomas | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| KC | Nate Pearson | Closer | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 16 |
| KC | Anthony Gose | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
Audit rule catalog
| rule | status | critical | error | warning | pass | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATTING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints. |
| BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines. |
| BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts. |
| CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate. |
| CONFIDENCE_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | Confidence values are between 0 and 1. |
| CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup. |
| CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions. |
| CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance has usable player names. |
| CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled. |
| CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. |
| CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs. |
| DATE_PARSE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Game date can be parsed as an ISO date. |
| FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename and game_id identify the same game. |
| FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON. |
| FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner. |
| GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game_summary text agrees with final score. |
| GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner. |
| H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode. |
| INNINGS_COUNT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning count is valid for MLB. |
| INNING_OUTS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Each played half inning has valid outs. |
| INNING_PLAY_SUMS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches. |
| INNING_SEQUENCE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Innings are sequential and unique. |
| INNING_TOTAL_HITS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning hits sum to batting team hits. |
| INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning runs sum to final score. |
| LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent. |
| MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence. |
| OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards. |
| PA_BF_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced. |
| PIPELINE_VERSION | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them. |
| PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced. |
| PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds. |
| PITCHING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints. |
| PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines. |
| PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score. |
| PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals. |
| PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values. |
| PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result. |
| RECENT_FORM_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges. |
| RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score. |
| REPORT_COMPLETE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table. |
| REPORT_CSV_EXPORT | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows. |
| RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting/pitching runs agree with final score. |
| SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited. |
| SCORE_NO_TIE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final MLB score has a clear winner. |
| SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | score_evolution simulation_result matches final score. |
| SCORE_STEP_ORDER | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. |
| SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded. |
| STARTER_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected. |
| SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays. |
| TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target. |
| TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed. |
| TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | total_runs equals away + home runs. |
| WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | winner field agrees with the final score. |
20260927_COL@CHW
20260927_COL@CHW.json • 2026-09-27
COL 5 - CHW 8
PASSClean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.
CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 100INFO 8
No action required
No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.
Problems table - exact rows
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|
All findings - complete audit trail
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | CHW | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | CHW pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | COL | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | COL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CHW | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | CHW model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=8; R: current=4, sim=8; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=9). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CHW | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | CHW current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Randal Grichuk: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=3, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=3; Tommy Pham: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Munetaka Murakami: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, HR current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=3; Sam Antonacci: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Braden Montgomery: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Colson Montgomery: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Luisangel Acuña: R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Drew Romo: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | COL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | COL model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (ER: current=7, sim=8). | New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | COL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | COL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=36; H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=2, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=7). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | COL | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | COL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Connor Norby: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Cole Carrigg: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Adael Amador: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Troy Johnston: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Jordan Beck: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Kyle Karros: AB current=4 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Jake McCarthy: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Ezequiel Tovar: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. | |||||
| PASS | batting | current | CHW | BATTING_REALISM | current:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | COL | BATTING_REALISM | current:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | CHW | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | COL | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | CHW | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | COL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:COL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | CHW | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | COL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:COL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHW | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:CHW batting walks match COL pitching: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHW | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:CHW batting home runs match COL pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHW | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:CHW batting hits match COL pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHW | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:CHW batting strikeouts match COL pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHW | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:CHW PA=39 matches COL BF=39. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHW | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:CHW runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 8. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | COL | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:COL batting walks match CHW pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | COL | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:COL batting home runs match CHW pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | COL | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:COL batting hits match CHW pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | COL | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:COL batting strikeouts match CHW pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | COL | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:COL PA=38 matches CHW BF=38. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | COL | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:COL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.829 -> 0.691 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.828766, 'sample_size': 237, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5527, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.690733, 'published_confidence': 0.56, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | CHW | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | CHW current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CHW | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | CHW current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CHW | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | CHW current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CHW | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | CHW current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CHW | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | CHW hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | COL | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | COL current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | COL | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | COL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | COL | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | COL current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | COL | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | COL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.440. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.560. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.560. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 13 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 13.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.503/0.690. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: COL 9, CHW 9. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: COL 5 - CHW 8. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CHW. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for CHW; cap=0.56, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'opponent_team': 'COL', 'h2h_net_margin': 2, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-26', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 9, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'COL'}, {'date': '2026-09-25', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 5, 'winner': 'CHW'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260926', 'away': 'COL', 'home': 'CHW', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'COL', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.697769, 'artifact': '20260926_COL@CHW.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260925', 'away': 'COL', 'home': 'CHW', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.723012, 'artifact': '20260925_COL@CHW.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'CHW', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'COL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'CHW', 'output_opponent_team': 'COL', 'simulation_score_winner': 'CHW', 'final_score_winner': 'CHW', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CHW', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 8, 'score_text': 'COL 5 - 8 CHW', 'winner': 'CHW'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 8, 'score_text': 'COL 5 - 8 CHW', 'winner': 'CHW'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0479, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 1.02, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 8, 'winner': 'CHW', 'model_winner': 'CHW', 'simulation_winner': 'CHW', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'CHW', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'CHW', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 3, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 8}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 8}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.4935, 'winner': 'CHW', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 8, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-27. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260927_COL@CHW. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: COL@CHW. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 2, 'sample_weight': 0.03, 'home_net_margin': 2.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 2.0, 'home_average_margin': 1.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.015, 'away_run_delta': -0.015, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 8, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.012052786961368137}, {'home_runs': 7, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.011881290921668447}, {'home_runs': 8, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.011685786289297876}, {'home_runs': 9, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.011545299616244726}, {'home_runs': 7, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.01151951220880388}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.017506366809694727, '1': 0.026531556705292395, '2': 0.03796848935084617, '3': 0.051307137036693505, '4': 0.06546755505919616, '5': 0.07888026122646896, '6': 0.08974379603672693, '7': 0.09641273623220155, '8': 0.09780436972972653, '9': 0.09368627819664817, '10': 0.08473983059719581, '11': 0.07237574946083943, '12': 0.058370368329261756, '13': 0.044451423277575286, '14': 0.03196485846250995, '15': 0.021704699519814918, '16': 0.01391645588783234, '17': 0.00842553319950353, '18': 0.0048168155751858776, '19': 0.00260025847286118, '20': 0.0013254608339247555}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.03933990899929951, '1': 0.058760434919097854, '2': 0.080500840340172, '3': 0.10115319109052733, '4': 0.11657959008198729, '5': 0.12323362437358286, '6': 0.11948122892249581, '7': 0.10625121426962149, '8': 0.08666263402549892, '9': 0.06483262849433548, '10': 0.044485567562328326, '11': 0.027996800585158278, '12': 0.016160747090853536, '13': 0.008556146763141788, '14': 0.0041548828089952115, '15': 0.0018505596729044035}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.25, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 1.7484, 'recent_quality_edge': 1.02, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 1.4935} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 8, 'score_text': 'COL 5 - 8 CHW', 'winner': 'CHW'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 8, 'score_text': 'COL 5 - 8 CHW', 'winner': 'CHW'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0479, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 1.02, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 8, 'winner': 'CHW', 'model_winner': 'CHW', 'simulation_winner': 'CHW', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'CHW', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'CHW', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 3, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 8}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 8}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.4935, 'winner': 'CHW', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 8, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 173. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 156. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | CHW | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | CHW pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | CHW | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | CHW pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 156. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | COL | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | COL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | COL | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | COL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 173. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 10 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | CHW | PITCHING_REALISM | current:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | CHW | STARTER_PRESENT | current:CHW includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | COL | PITCHING_REALISM | current:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | COL | STARTER_PRESENT | current:COL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | CHW | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | CHW | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:CHW includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | COL | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | COL | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:COL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | CHW | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | CHW | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | COL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | COL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | CHW | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | CHW | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | COL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.1. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | COL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: COL 5 - 8 CHW. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: COL 5 - 8 CHW. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: CHW wins 8-5. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=CHW, simulation=CHW, published=CHW. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.560. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 2/10 (0.200). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): CHW wins 8-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: CHW wins 5-8. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 5-8. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-8, final 5-8 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 13. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: CHW wins 8-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | CHW | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | CHW recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | CHW | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | CHW wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | COL | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | COL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | COL | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | COL wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200. |
Passed checks
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PASS | batting | current | CHW | BATTING_REALISM | current:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | COL | BATTING_REALISM | current:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | CHW | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | COL | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | CHW | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | COL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:COL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | CHW | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | COL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:COL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHW | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:CHW batting walks match COL pitching: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHW | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:CHW batting home runs match COL pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHW | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:CHW batting hits match COL pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHW | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:CHW batting strikeouts match COL pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHW | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:CHW PA=39 matches COL BF=39. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHW | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:CHW runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 8. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | COL | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:COL batting walks match CHW pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | COL | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:COL batting home runs match CHW pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | COL | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:COL batting hits match CHW pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | COL | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:COL batting strikeouts match CHW pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | COL | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:COL PA=38 matches CHW BF=38. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | COL | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:COL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.829 -> 0.691 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.828766, 'sample_size': 237, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5527, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.690733, 'published_confidence': 0.56, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | CHW | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | CHW current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CHW | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | CHW current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CHW | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | CHW current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CHW | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | CHW current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CHW | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | CHW hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | COL | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | COL current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | COL | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | COL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | COL | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | COL current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | COL | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | COL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.440. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.560. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.560. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 13 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 13.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.503/0.690. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: COL 9, CHW 9. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: COL 5 - CHW 8. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CHW. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for CHW; cap=0.56, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'opponent_team': 'COL', 'h2h_net_margin': 2, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-26', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 9, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'COL'}, {'date': '2026-09-25', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 5, 'winner': 'CHW'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260926', 'away': 'COL', 'home': 'CHW', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'COL', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.697769, 'artifact': '20260926_COL@CHW.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260925', 'away': 'COL', 'home': 'CHW', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.723012, 'artifact': '20260925_COL@CHW.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'CHW', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'COL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'CHW', 'output_opponent_team': 'COL', 'simulation_score_winner': 'CHW', 'final_score_winner': 'CHW', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CHW', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 8, 'score_text': 'COL 5 - 8 CHW', 'winner': 'CHW'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 8, 'score_text': 'COL 5 - 8 CHW', 'winner': 'CHW'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0479, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 1.02, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 8, 'winner': 'CHW', 'model_winner': 'CHW', 'simulation_winner': 'CHW', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'CHW', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'CHW', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 3, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 8}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 8}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.4935, 'winner': 'CHW', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 8, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-27. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260927_COL@CHW. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: COL@CHW. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 2, 'sample_weight': 0.03, 'home_net_margin': 2.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 2.0, 'home_average_margin': 1.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.015, 'away_run_delta': -0.015, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 8, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.012052786961368137}, {'home_runs': 7, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.011881290921668447}, {'home_runs': 8, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.011685786289297876}, {'home_runs': 9, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.011545299616244726}, {'home_runs': 7, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.01151951220880388}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.017506366809694727, '1': 0.026531556705292395, '2': 0.03796848935084617, '3': 0.051307137036693505, '4': 0.06546755505919616, '5': 0.07888026122646896, '6': 0.08974379603672693, '7': 0.09641273623220155, '8': 0.09780436972972653, '9': 0.09368627819664817, '10': 0.08473983059719581, '11': 0.07237574946083943, '12': 0.058370368329261756, '13': 0.044451423277575286, '14': 0.03196485846250995, '15': 0.021704699519814918, '16': 0.01391645588783234, '17': 0.00842553319950353, '18': 0.0048168155751858776, '19': 0.00260025847286118, '20': 0.0013254608339247555}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.03933990899929951, '1': 0.058760434919097854, '2': 0.080500840340172, '3': 0.10115319109052733, '4': 0.11657959008198729, '5': 0.12323362437358286, '6': 0.11948122892249581, '7': 0.10625121426962149, '8': 0.08666263402549892, '9': 0.06483262849433548, '10': 0.044485567562328326, '11': 0.027996800585158278, '12': 0.016160747090853536, '13': 0.008556146763141788, '14': 0.0041548828089952115, '15': 0.0018505596729044035}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.25, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 1.7484, 'recent_quality_edge': 1.02, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 1.4935} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 8, 'score_text': 'COL 5 - 8 CHW', 'winner': 'CHW'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 8, 'score_text': 'COL 5 - 8 CHW', 'winner': 'CHW'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0479, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 1.02, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 8, 'winner': 'CHW', 'model_winner': 'CHW', 'simulation_winner': 'CHW', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'CHW', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'CHW', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 3, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 8}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 8}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.4935, 'winner': 'CHW', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 8, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 173. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 156. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | CHW | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | CHW pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | CHW | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | CHW pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 156. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | COL | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | COL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | COL | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | COL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 173. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 10 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | CHW | PITCHING_REALISM | current:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | CHW | STARTER_PRESENT | current:CHW includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | COL | PITCHING_REALISM | current:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | COL | STARTER_PRESENT | current:COL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | CHW | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | CHW | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:CHW includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | COL | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | COL | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:COL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | CHW | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | CHW | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | COL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | COL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | CHW | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | CHW | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | COL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.1. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | COL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: COL 5 - 8 CHW. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: COL 5 - 8 CHW. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: CHW wins 8-5. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=CHW, simulation=CHW, published=CHW. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.560. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 2/10 (0.200). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): CHW wins 8-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: CHW wins 5-8. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 5-8. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-8, final 5-8 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 13. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: CHW wins 8-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | CHW | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | CHW recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | CHW | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | CHW wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | COL | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | COL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | COL | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | COL wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200. |
Info/context findings
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | CHW | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | CHW pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | COL | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | COL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CHW | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | CHW model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=8; R: current=4, sim=8; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=9). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CHW | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | CHW current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Randal Grichuk: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=3, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=3; Tommy Pham: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Munetaka Murakami: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, HR current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=3; Sam Antonacci: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Braden Montgomery: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Colson Montgomery: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Luisangel Acuña: R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Drew Romo: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | COL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | COL model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (ER: current=7, sim=8). | New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | COL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | COL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=36; H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=2, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=7). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | COL | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | COL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Connor Norby: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Cole Carrigg: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Adael Amador: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Troy Johnston: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Jordan Beck: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Kyle Karros: AB current=4 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Jake McCarthy: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Ezequiel Tovar: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. |
Score evolution
| step | away_runs | home_runs | confidence | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| historical_ml | 4.191156896049202 | 4.971862471537651 | Base ML historical model prediction | |
| variance_applied | 4 | 5 | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) | |
| enhanced_prediction | 5 | 8 | 0.560 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail) |
| embedded_savant_run_environment | 5 | 8 | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality | |
| fundamental_edge_target_review | 5 | 8 | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments | |
| capped_target | 5 | 8 | Capped at max 12 realistic runs | |
| simulation_result | 5 | 8 | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
Inning-by-inning linescore
| team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 9 |
| CHW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 9 |
Team totals - current + final simulation
| src | team | type | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | SO | SF | HBP | SB | CS | IP | ER | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | COL | batting | 33 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | COL | pitching | 9 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 8.0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| current | CHW | batting | 31 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | CHW | pitching | 9 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 9.0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| simulation | COL | batting | 36 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | COL | pitching | 9 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 8.1 | 8 | 39 | 173 | |||||||||
| simulation | CHW | batting | 34 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 1 | |||||||
| simulation | CHW | pitching | 9 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 9.0 | 5 | 38 | 156 |
Batting lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | pos | name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | COL | DH | Connor Norby | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | COL | CF | Cole Carrigg | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | COL | 2B | Adael Amador | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | COL | 1B | Troy Johnston | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | COL | RF | Jordan Beck | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | COL | C | Hunter Goodman | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | COL | 3B | Kyle Karros | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | COL | LF | Jake McCarthy | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | COL | SS | Ezequiel Tovar | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | CHW | LF | Randal Grichuk | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CHW | DH | Tommy Pham | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | CHW | 1B | Munetaka Murakami | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CHW | 2B | Sam Antonacci | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CHW | RF | Braden Montgomery | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | CHW | 3B | Colson Montgomery | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | CHW | SS | Luisangel Acuña | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | CHW | C | Drew Romo | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | CHW | CF | Brenton Doyle | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| simulation | COL | 1 | LF | Jake McCarthy | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.200 |
| simulation | COL | 2 | DH | Connor Norby | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 |
| simulation | COL | 3 | C | Hunter Goodman | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | COL | 4 | CF | Cole Carrigg | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | COL | 5 | 3B | Kyle Karros | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | COL | 6 | 2B | Adael Amador | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | COL | 7 | 1B | Troy Johnston | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | COL | 8 | RF | Jordan Beck | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | COL | 9 | SS | Ezequiel Tovar | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | CHW | 1 | LF | Randal Grichuk | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.200 |
| simulation | CHW | 2 | DH | Tommy Pham | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | CHW | 3 | 1B | Munetaka Murakami | 5 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.600 |
| simulation | CHW | 4 | CF | Brenton Doyle | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 |
| simulation | CHW | 5 | 2B | Sam Antonacci | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | CHW | 6 | RF | Braden Montgomery | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | CHW | 7 | 3B | Colson Montgomery | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | CHW | 8 | SS | Luisangel Acuña | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | CHW | 9 | C | Drew Romo | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | name | role | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | BF | Pitches | sim_ERA | season_ERA | season_WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | COL | 1 | Kyle Freeland | Starter | 4.1 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10.38 | 6.58 | 1.52 |
| current | COL | 2 | Brennan Bernardino | Setup Man | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9.00 | 2.39 | 1.09 |
| current | COL | 3 | Jordan Romano | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 4.81 | 1.28 |
| current | COL | 4 | Jaden Hill | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13.50 | 4.19 | 1.37 |
| current | COL | 5 | Jimmy Herget | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 5.70 | 1.49 |
| current | CHW | 1 | Anthony Kay | Starter | 4.2 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5.79 | 4.53 | 1.37 |
| current | CHW | 2 | Grant Taylor | Closer | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.40 | 1.03 |
| current | CHW | 3 | Sean Newcomb | Setup Man | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.77 | 1.11 |
| current | CHW | 4 | Bryan Hudson | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.62 | 1.16 |
| current | CHW | 5 | Jordan Hicks | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27.00 | 3.83 | 1.50 |
| simulation | COL | 1 | Kyle Freeland | Starter | 4.1 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 22 | 89 | 12.46 | 6.58 | 1.52 |
| simulation | COL | 2 | Jordan Romano | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 0.00 | 4.81 | 1.28 |
| simulation | COL | 3 | Brennan Bernardino | Setup Man | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 36 | 9.00 | 2.39 | 1.09 |
| simulation | COL | 4 | Jimmy Herget | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 0.00 | 5.70 | 1.49 |
| simulation | COL | 5 | Jaden Hill | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 9.00 | 4.19 | 1.37 |
| simulation | CHW | 1 | Anthony Kay | Starter | 4.2 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 20 | 85 | 5.79 | 4.53 | 1.37 |
| simulation | CHW | 2 | Grant Taylor | Closer | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 0.00 | 2.40 | 1.03 |
| simulation | CHW | 3 | Sean Newcomb | Setup Man | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 0.00 | 2.77 | 1.11 |
| simulation | CHW | 4 | Bryan Hudson | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 0.00 | 2.62 | 1.16 |
| simulation | CHW | 5 | Jordan Hicks | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 21 | 27.00 | 3.83 | 1.50 |
Pitch count summary
| team | pitcher | role | IP | R | H | BB | SO | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | Kyle Freeland | Starter | 4.1 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 22 | 89 |
| COL | Brennan Bernardino | Setup Man | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 36 |
| COL | Jordan Romano | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 21 |
| COL | Jaden Hill | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 |
| COL | Jimmy Herget | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| CHW | Anthony Kay | Starter | 4.2 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 85 |
| CHW | Grant Taylor | Closer | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 17 |
| CHW | Sean Newcomb | Setup Man | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 17 |
| CHW | Bryan Hudson | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 16 |
| CHW | Jordan Hicks | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 21 |
Audit rule catalog
| rule | status | critical | error | warning | pass | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATTING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints. |
| BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines. |
| BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts. |
| CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate. |
| CONFIDENCE_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | Confidence values are between 0 and 1. |
| CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup. |
| CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions. |
| CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance has usable player names. |
| CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled. |
| CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. |
| CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs. |
| DATE_PARSE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Game date can be parsed as an ISO date. |
| FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename and game_id identify the same game. |
| FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON. |
| FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner. |
| GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game_summary text agrees with final score. |
| GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner. |
| H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode. |
| INNINGS_COUNT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning count is valid for MLB. |
| INNING_OUTS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Each played half inning has valid outs. |
| INNING_PLAY_SUMS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches. |
| INNING_SEQUENCE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Innings are sequential and unique. |
| INNING_TOTAL_HITS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning hits sum to batting team hits. |
| INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning runs sum to final score. |
| LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent. |
| MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence. |
| OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards. |
| PA_BF_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced. |
| PIPELINE_VERSION | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them. |
| PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced. |
| PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds. |
| PITCHING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints. |
| PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines. |
| PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score. |
| PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals. |
| PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values. |
| PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result. |
| RECENT_FORM_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges. |
| RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score. |
| REPORT_COMPLETE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table. |
| REPORT_CSV_EXPORT | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows. |
| RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting/pitching runs agree with final score. |
| SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited. |
| SCORE_NO_TIE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final MLB score has a clear winner. |
| SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | score_evolution simulation_result matches final score. |
| SCORE_STEP_ORDER | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. |
| SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded. |
| STARTER_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected. |
| SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays. |
| TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target. |
| TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed. |
| TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | total_runs equals away + home runs. |
| WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | winner field agrees with the final score. |
20260927_HOU@OAK
20260927_HOU@OAK.json • 2026-09-27
HOU 8 - OAK 6
PASSClean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.
CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 100INFO 8
No action required
No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.
Problems table - exact rows
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|
All findings - complete audit trail
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | HOU | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | HOU pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | OAK | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | OAK pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | HOU | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | HOU model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=35; H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=2, sim=0; HR: current=2, sim=3; RBI: current=5, sim=8; R: current=5, sim=8; BB: current=4, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=9). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | HOU | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | HOU current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Isaac Paredes: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2; Yainer Diaz: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Jose Altuve: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Lucas Spence: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=4, BB current=1 box=0; Jeremy Peña: H current=1 box=3, HR current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=4, BB current=0 box=1; Yordan Alvarez: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Christian Walker: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Taylor Trammell: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | OAK | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | OAK model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (ER: current=7, sim=8). | New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | OAK | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | OAK model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=38; H: current=9, sim=11; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=2, sim=0; RBI: current=5, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=10). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | OAK | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | OAK current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Shea Langeliers: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Henry Bolte: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Jeff McNeil: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Joshua Kuroda-Grauer: AB current=3 box=5, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Carlos Cortes: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Zack Gelof: HR current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Lawrence Butler: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Donovan Walton: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. | |||||
| PASS | batting | current | HOU | BATTING_REALISM | current:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | OAK | BATTING_REALISM | current:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | HOU | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | OAK | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | HOU | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | OAK | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | HOU | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | OAK | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | HOU | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:HOU batting walks match OAK pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | HOU | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:HOU batting home runs match OAK pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | HOU | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:HOU batting hits match OAK pitching: 8. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | HOU | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:HOU batting strikeouts match OAK pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | HOU | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:HOU PA=39 matches OAK BF=39. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | HOU | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:HOU runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 8. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | OAK | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:OAK batting walks match HOU pitching: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | OAK | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:OAK batting home runs match HOU pitching: 0. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | OAK | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:OAK batting hits match HOU pitching: 11. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | OAK | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:OAK batting strikeouts match HOU pitching: 10. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | OAK | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:OAK PA=43 matches HOU BF=43. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | OAK | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:OAK runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.735 -> 0.640 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.734518, 'sample_size': 229, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5459, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.640209, 'published_confidence': 0.56, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | HOU | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | HOU current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | HOU | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | HOU current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | HOU | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | HOU current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | HOU | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | HOU current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | HOU | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | HOU hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | OAK | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | OAK current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | OAK | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | OAK current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | OAK | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | OAK current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | OAK | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | OAK hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.560. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.560. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.440. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 14 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 14.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.503/0.690. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: HOU 8, OAK 11. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: HOU 8 - OAK 6. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: HOU. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for HOU; cap=0.56, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile; local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'HOU', 'opponent_team': 'OAK', 'h2h_net_margin': 12, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-26', 'predicted_team_runs': 13, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 11, 'winner': 'HOU'}, {'date': '2026-09-25', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'OAK'}, {'date': '2026-09-24', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'HOU'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 6, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 3, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 2, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260926', 'away': 'HOU', 'home': 'OAK', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'HOU', 'actual_winner': 'HOU', 'actual_margin': 11, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.522895, 'artifact': '20260926_HOU@OAK.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260925', 'away': 'HOU', 'home': 'OAK', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'HOU', 'actual_winner': 'OAK', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.539426, 'artifact': '20260925_HOU@OAK.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260924', 'away': 'HOU', 'home': 'OAK', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'HOU', 'actual_winner': 'HOU', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260924_HOU@OAK.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260823', 'away': 'OAK', 'home': 'HOU', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'OAK', 'actual_winner': 'OAK', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.505, 'artifact': '20260823_OAK@HOU.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260822', 'away': 'OAK', 'home': 'HOU', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'HOU', 'actual_winner': 'OAK', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.554445, 'artifact': '20260822_OAK@HOU.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'HOU', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'OAK', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'HOU', 'output_opponent_team': 'OAK', 'simulation_score_winner': 'HOU', 'final_score_winner': 'HOU', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'HOU', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'HOU 8 - 6 OAK', 'winner': 'HOU'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'HOU 8 - 6 OAK', 'winner': 'HOU'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0633, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.49, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'HOU', 'model_winner': 'HOU', 'simulation_winner': 'HOU', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'HOU', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.0519, 'winner': 'HOU', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-27. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260927_HOU@OAK. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: HOU@OAK. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -10.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 10.0, 'home_average_margin': -2.0, 'home_run_delta': -0.0577, 'away_run_delta': 0.0577, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -11.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 8, 'probability': 0.01153269520089576}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.011495033184392293}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 8, 'probability': 0.011446102783123939}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.011408723549180004}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 9, 'probability': 0.010909499857883686}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.033903175156965636, '1': 0.05081716729473839, '2': 0.07035276169147696, '3': 0.08996062558215581, '4': 0.1062488901232442, '5': 0.11590360816678932, '6': 0.11678044579875936, '7': 0.1086785712319119, '8': 0.09341536829813102, '9': 0.07416403654926597, '10': 0.054383731974466575, '11': 0.03683369377561705, '12': 0.02304210536659606, '13': 0.013313727446468231, '14': 0.007105224170083437, '15': 0.0035023256573156105, '16': 0.0015945417160147626}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.018530723809302325, '1': 0.028063308721195487, '2': 0.04007179589938139, '3': 0.053950090982407835, '4': 0.06848555793308164, '5': 0.08197081572828964, '6': 0.09250665082755395, '7': 0.09843285924940709, '8': 0.0987553620129979, '9': 0.09341889203508748, '10': 0.08332247870320383, '11': 0.07007177064534462, '12': 0.05556194556819272, '13': 0.04153988018290249, '14': 0.02928238702430968, '15': 0.019462613365843408, '16': 0.012196894748438264, '17': 0.007206938881462074, '18': 0.004015187622928967, '19': 0.0021091831388140286, '20': 0.0010446629198551751}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.25, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -1.3168, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.56, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -1.0519} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'HOU 8 - 6 OAK', 'winner': 'HOU'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'HOU 8 - 6 OAK', 'winner': 'HOU'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0633, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.49, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'HOU', 'model_winner': 'HOU', 'simulation_winner': 'HOU', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'HOU', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.0519, 'winner': 'HOU', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 170. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 167. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | HOU | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | HOU pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | HOU | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | HOU pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 170. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | OAK | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | OAK pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | OAK | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | OAK pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 167. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 11 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | HOU | PITCHING_REALISM | current:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | HOU | STARTER_PRESENT | current:HOU includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | OAK | PITCHING_REALISM | current:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | OAK | STARTER_PRESENT | current:OAK includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | HOU | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | HOU | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:HOU includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | OAK | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | OAK | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:OAK includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | HOU | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | HOU | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | OAK | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | OAK | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | HOU | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | HOU | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | OAK | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | OAK | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: HOU 8 - 6 OAK. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: HOU 8 - 6 OAK. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: HOU wins 8-6. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=HOU, simulation=HOU, published=HOU. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.560. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): HOU wins 8-6. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: HOU wins 8-6. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 8-6. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 8-6, final 8-6 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 14. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: HOU wins 8-6. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | HOU | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | HOU recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | HOU | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | HOU wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | OAK | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | OAK recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | OAK | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | OAK wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200. |
Passed checks
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PASS | batting | current | HOU | BATTING_REALISM | current:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | OAK | BATTING_REALISM | current:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | HOU | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | OAK | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | HOU | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | OAK | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | HOU | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | OAK | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | HOU | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:HOU batting walks match OAK pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | HOU | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:HOU batting home runs match OAK pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | HOU | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:HOU batting hits match OAK pitching: 8. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | HOU | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:HOU batting strikeouts match OAK pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | HOU | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:HOU PA=39 matches OAK BF=39. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | HOU | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:HOU runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 8. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | OAK | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:OAK batting walks match HOU pitching: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | OAK | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:OAK batting home runs match HOU pitching: 0. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | OAK | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:OAK batting hits match HOU pitching: 11. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | OAK | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:OAK batting strikeouts match HOU pitching: 10. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | OAK | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:OAK PA=43 matches HOU BF=43. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | OAK | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:OAK runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.735 -> 0.640 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.734518, 'sample_size': 229, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5459, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.640209, 'published_confidence': 0.56, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | HOU | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | HOU current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | HOU | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | HOU current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | HOU | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | HOU current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | HOU | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | HOU current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | HOU | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | HOU hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | OAK | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | OAK current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | OAK | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | OAK current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | OAK | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | OAK current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | OAK | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | OAK hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.560. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.560. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.440. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 14 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 14.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.503/0.690. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: HOU 8, OAK 11. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: HOU 8 - OAK 6. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: HOU. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for HOU; cap=0.56, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile; local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'HOU', 'opponent_team': 'OAK', 'h2h_net_margin': 12, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-26', 'predicted_team_runs': 13, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 11, 'winner': 'HOU'}, {'date': '2026-09-25', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'OAK'}, {'date': '2026-09-24', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'HOU'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 6, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 3, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 2, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260926', 'away': 'HOU', 'home': 'OAK', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'HOU', 'actual_winner': 'HOU', 'actual_margin': 11, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.522895, 'artifact': '20260926_HOU@OAK.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260925', 'away': 'HOU', 'home': 'OAK', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'HOU', 'actual_winner': 'OAK', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.539426, 'artifact': '20260925_HOU@OAK.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260924', 'away': 'HOU', 'home': 'OAK', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'HOU', 'actual_winner': 'HOU', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260924_HOU@OAK.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260823', 'away': 'OAK', 'home': 'HOU', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'OAK', 'actual_winner': 'OAK', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.505, 'artifact': '20260823_OAK@HOU.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260822', 'away': 'OAK', 'home': 'HOU', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'HOU', 'actual_winner': 'OAK', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.554445, 'artifact': '20260822_OAK@HOU.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'HOU', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'OAK', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'HOU', 'output_opponent_team': 'OAK', 'simulation_score_winner': 'HOU', 'final_score_winner': 'HOU', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'HOU', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'HOU 8 - 6 OAK', 'winner': 'HOU'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'HOU 8 - 6 OAK', 'winner': 'HOU'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0633, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.49, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'HOU', 'model_winner': 'HOU', 'simulation_winner': 'HOU', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'HOU', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.0519, 'winner': 'HOU', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-27. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260927_HOU@OAK. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: HOU@OAK. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -10.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 10.0, 'home_average_margin': -2.0, 'home_run_delta': -0.0577, 'away_run_delta': 0.0577, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -11.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 8, 'probability': 0.01153269520089576}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.011495033184392293}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 8, 'probability': 0.011446102783123939}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.011408723549180004}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 9, 'probability': 0.010909499857883686}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.033903175156965636, '1': 0.05081716729473839, '2': 0.07035276169147696, '3': 0.08996062558215581, '4': 0.1062488901232442, '5': 0.11590360816678932, '6': 0.11678044579875936, '7': 0.1086785712319119, '8': 0.09341536829813102, '9': 0.07416403654926597, '10': 0.054383731974466575, '11': 0.03683369377561705, '12': 0.02304210536659606, '13': 0.013313727446468231, '14': 0.007105224170083437, '15': 0.0035023256573156105, '16': 0.0015945417160147626}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.018530723809302325, '1': 0.028063308721195487, '2': 0.04007179589938139, '3': 0.053950090982407835, '4': 0.06848555793308164, '5': 0.08197081572828964, '6': 0.09250665082755395, '7': 0.09843285924940709, '8': 0.0987553620129979, '9': 0.09341889203508748, '10': 0.08332247870320383, '11': 0.07007177064534462, '12': 0.05556194556819272, '13': 0.04153988018290249, '14': 0.02928238702430968, '15': 0.019462613365843408, '16': 0.012196894748438264, '17': 0.007206938881462074, '18': 0.004015187622928967, '19': 0.0021091831388140286, '20': 0.0010446629198551751}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.25, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -1.3168, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.56, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -1.0519} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'HOU 8 - 6 OAK', 'winner': 'HOU'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'HOU 8 - 6 OAK', 'winner': 'HOU'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0633, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.49, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'HOU', 'model_winner': 'HOU', 'simulation_winner': 'HOU', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'HOU', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.0519, 'winner': 'HOU', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 170. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 167. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | HOU | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | HOU pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | HOU | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | HOU pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 170. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | OAK | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | OAK pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | OAK | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | OAK pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 167. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 11 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | HOU | PITCHING_REALISM | current:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | HOU | STARTER_PRESENT | current:HOU includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | OAK | PITCHING_REALISM | current:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | OAK | STARTER_PRESENT | current:OAK includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | HOU | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | HOU | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:HOU includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | OAK | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | OAK | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:OAK includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | HOU | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | HOU | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | OAK | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | OAK | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | HOU | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | HOU | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | OAK | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | OAK | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: HOU 8 - 6 OAK. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: HOU 8 - 6 OAK. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: HOU wins 8-6. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=HOU, simulation=HOU, published=HOU. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.560. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): HOU wins 8-6. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: HOU wins 8-6. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 8-6. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 8-6, final 8-6 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 14. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: HOU wins 8-6. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | HOU | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | HOU recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | HOU | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | HOU wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | OAK | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | OAK recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | OAK | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | OAK wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200. |
Info/context findings
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | HOU | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | HOU pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | OAK | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | OAK pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | HOU | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | HOU model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=35; H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=2, sim=0; HR: current=2, sim=3; RBI: current=5, sim=8; R: current=5, sim=8; BB: current=4, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=9). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | HOU | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | HOU current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Isaac Paredes: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2; Yainer Diaz: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Jose Altuve: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Lucas Spence: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=4, BB current=1 box=0; Jeremy Peña: H current=1 box=3, HR current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=4, BB current=0 box=1; Yordan Alvarez: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Christian Walker: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Taylor Trammell: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | OAK | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | OAK model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (ER: current=7, sim=8). | New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | OAK | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | OAK model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=38; H: current=9, sim=11; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=2, sim=0; RBI: current=5, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=10). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | OAK | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | OAK current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Shea Langeliers: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Henry Bolte: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Jeff McNeil: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Joshua Kuroda-Grauer: AB current=3 box=5, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Carlos Cortes: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Zack Gelof: HR current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Lawrence Butler: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Donovan Walton: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. |
Score evolution
| step | away_runs | home_runs | confidence | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| historical_ml | 5.6495941785803 | 4.142746491388293 | Base ML historical model prediction | |
| variance_applied | 6 | 4 | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) | |
| enhanced_prediction | 8 | 6 | 0.560 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail) |
| embedded_savant_run_environment | 8 | 6 | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality | |
| fundamental_edge_target_review | 8 | 6 | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments | |
| capped_target | 8 | 6 | Capped at max 12 realistic runs | |
| simulation_result | 8 | 6 | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
Inning-by-inning linescore
| team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 |
| OAK | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 11 |
Team totals - current + final simulation
| src | team | type | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | SO | SF | HBP | SB | CS | IP | ER | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | HOU | batting | 34 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | HOU | pitching | 11 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 9.0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| current | OAK | batting | 32 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | OAK | pitching | 8 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 9.0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| simulation | HOU | batting | 35 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 1 | |||||||
| simulation | HOU | pitching | 11 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 9.0 | 6 | 43 | 170 | |||||||||
| simulation | OAK | batting | 38 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 1 | |||||||
| simulation | OAK | pitching | 8 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 9.0 | 8 | 39 | 167 |
Batting lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | pos | name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | HOU | 3B | Isaac Paredes | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | HOU | C | Yainer Diaz | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | HOU | 2B | Jose Altuve | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | HOU | CF | Lucas Spence | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | HOU | SS | Jeremy Peña | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | HOU | DH | Yordan Alvarez | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | HOU | 1B | Christian Walker | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | HOU | LF | Taylor Trammell | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | HOU | RF | Cam Smith | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | OAK | DH | Shea Langeliers | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | OAK | CF | Henry Bolte | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | OAK | 1B | Jeff McNeil | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | OAK | SS | Joshua Kuroda-Grauer | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | OAK | LF | Carlos Cortes | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | OAK | 3B | Zack Gelof | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | OAK | RF | Lawrence Butler | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | OAK | 2B | Donovan Walton | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | OAK | C | Brian Serven | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| simulation | HOU | 1 | SS | Jeremy Peña | 5 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 |
| simulation | HOU | 2 | DH | Yordan Alvarez | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | HOU | 3 | 3B | Isaac Paredes | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | HOU | 4 | 2B | Jose Altuve | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 |
| simulation | HOU | 5 | C | Yainer Diaz | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | HOU | 6 | 1B | Christian Walker | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.000 |
| simulation | HOU | 7 | CF | Lucas Spence | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | HOU | 8 | RF | Cam Smith | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | HOU | 9 | LF | Taylor Trammell | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | OAK | 1 | CF | Henry Bolte | 5 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.600 |
| simulation | OAK | 2 | RF | Lawrence Butler | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | OAK | 3 | DH | Shea Langeliers | 5 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.600 |
| simulation | OAK | 4 | 3B | Zack Gelof | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 |
| simulation | OAK | 5 | 1B | Jeff McNeil | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 |
| simulation | OAK | 6 | 2B | Donovan Walton | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | OAK | 7 | SS | Joshua Kuroda-Grauer | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.200 |
| simulation | OAK | 8 | LF | Carlos Cortes | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | OAK | 9 | C | Brian Serven | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | name | role | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | BF | Pitches | sim_ERA | season_ERA | season_WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | HOU | 1 | Peter Lambert | Starter | 5.1 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.75 | 3.87 | 1.26 |
| current | HOU | 2 | Logan VanWey | Setup Man | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.54 | 0.94 |
| current | HOU | 3 | Bryan Abreu | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.73 | 1.32 |
| current | HOU | 4 | Josh Hader | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.81 | 0.69 |
| current | HOU | 5 | AJ Blubaugh | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 54.00 | 3.66 | 1.23 |
| current | OAK | 1 | Seth Johnson | Starter | 4.0 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15.75 | 5.06 | 1.56 |
| current | OAK | 2 | Scott Blewett | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.75 | 1.36 |
| current | OAK | 3 | Elvis Alvarado | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.83 | 1.26 |
| current | OAK | 4 | Hogan Harris | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.33 | 1.45 |
| current | OAK | 5 | Luis Medina | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.84 | 1.32 |
| current | OAK | 6 | Brady Basso | Middle Reliever | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 5.36 | 1.60 |
| simulation | HOU | 1 | Peter Lambert | Starter | 5.1 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 27 | 107 | 6.75 | 3.87 | 1.26 |
| simulation | HOU | 2 | Josh Hader | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 0.81 | 0.69 |
| simulation | HOU | 3 | Logan VanWey | Setup Man | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 0.00 | 1.54 | 0.94 |
| simulation | HOU | 4 | Bryan Abreu | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 0.00 | 3.73 | 1.32 |
| simulation | HOU | 5 | AJ Blubaugh | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 54.00 | 3.66 | 1.23 |
| simulation | OAK | 1 | Seth Johnson | Starter | 4.0 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 21 | 90 | 18.00 | 5.06 | 1.56 |
| simulation | OAK | 2 | Elvis Alvarado | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 0.00 | 3.83 | 1.26 |
| simulation | OAK | 3 | Hogan Harris | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 3.33 | 1.45 |
| simulation | OAK | 4 | Luis Medina | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 2.84 | 1.32 |
| simulation | OAK | 5 | Scott Blewett | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 0.00 | 2.75 | 1.36 |
| simulation | OAK | 6 | Brady Basso | Middle Reliever | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 0.00 | 5.36 | 1.60 |
Pitch count summary
| team | pitcher | role | IP | R | H | BB | SO | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | Peter Lambert | Starter | 5.1 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 27 | 107 |
| HOU | Logan VanWey | Setup Man | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| HOU | Bryan Abreu | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 20 |
| HOU | Josh Hader | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| HOU | AJ Blubaugh | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| OAK | Seth Johnson | Starter | 4.0 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 90 |
| OAK | Scott Blewett | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 23 |
| OAK | Elvis Alvarado | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 17 |
| OAK | Hogan Harris | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| OAK | Luis Medina | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| OAK | Brady Basso | Middle Reliever | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
Audit rule catalog
| rule | status | critical | error | warning | pass | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATTING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints. |
| BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines. |
| BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts. |
| CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate. |
| CONFIDENCE_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | Confidence values are between 0 and 1. |
| CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup. |
| CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions. |
| CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance has usable player names. |
| CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled. |
| CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. |
| CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs. |
| DATE_PARSE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Game date can be parsed as an ISO date. |
| FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename and game_id identify the same game. |
| FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON. |
| FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner. |
| GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game_summary text agrees with final score. |
| GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner. |
| H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode. |
| INNINGS_COUNT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning count is valid for MLB. |
| INNING_OUTS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Each played half inning has valid outs. |
| INNING_PLAY_SUMS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches. |
| INNING_SEQUENCE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Innings are sequential and unique. |
| INNING_TOTAL_HITS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning hits sum to batting team hits. |
| INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning runs sum to final score. |
| LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent. |
| MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence. |
| OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards. |
| PA_BF_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced. |
| PIPELINE_VERSION | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them. |
| PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced. |
| PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds. |
| PITCHING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints. |
| PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines. |
| PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score. |
| PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals. |
| PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values. |
| PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result. |
| RECENT_FORM_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges. |
| RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score. |
| REPORT_COMPLETE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table. |
| REPORT_CSV_EXPORT | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows. |
| RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting/pitching runs agree with final score. |
| SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited. |
| SCORE_NO_TIE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final MLB score has a clear winner. |
| SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | score_evolution simulation_result matches final score. |
| SCORE_STEP_ORDER | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. |
| SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded. |
| STARTER_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected. |
| SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays. |
| TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target. |
| TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed. |
| TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | total_runs equals away + home runs. |
| WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | winner field agrees with the final score. |
20260927_LAA@SEA
20260927_LAA@SEA.json • 2026-09-27
LAA 3 - SEA 5
PASSClean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.
CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 102INFO 7
No action required
No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.
Problems table - exact rows
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|
All findings - complete audit trail
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | LAA | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | LAA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | SEA | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | SEA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | LAA | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | LAA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=36; H: current=7, sim=9; 2B: current=1, sim=2; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=2, sim=0; HBP: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | LAA | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | LAA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Zach Neto: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Wade Meckler: R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Vaughn Grissom: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Moisés Ballesteros: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Josh Lowe: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2, HBP current=0 box=1; Oswald Peraza: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Bryce Teodosio: AB current=3 box=4; Christian Moore: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 3B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | SEA | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | SEA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=32; 2B: current=1, sim=2; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=4, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | SEA | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | SEA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Cal Raleigh: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Dominic Canzone: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Randy Arozarena: H current=1 box=3, 3B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=4; Julio Rodríguez: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; J.P. Crawford: H current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Josh Naylor: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Jhonny Pereda: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Cole Young: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. | |||||
| PASS | batting | current | LAA | BATTING_REALISM | current:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | SEA | BATTING_REALISM | current:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | LAA | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | SEA | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | LAA | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | SEA | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | LAA | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | SEA | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAA | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:LAA batting walks match SEA pitching: 0. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAA | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:LAA batting home runs match SEA pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAA | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:LAA batting hits match SEA pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAA | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:LAA batting strikeouts match SEA pitching: 11. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAA | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:LAA PA=37 matches SEA BF=37. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAA | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:LAA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SEA | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:SEA batting walks match LAA pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SEA | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:SEA batting home runs match LAA pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SEA | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:SEA batting hits match LAA pitching: 8. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SEA | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:SEA batting strikeouts match LAA pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SEA | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:SEA PA=33 matches LAA BF=33. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SEA | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:SEA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.564 -> 0.558 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5636, 'sample_size': 279, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.552, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.5578, 'published_confidence': 0.56, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | LAA | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | LAA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | SEA | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | SEA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | LAA | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | LAA current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | LAA | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | LAA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | LAA | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | LAA current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | LAA | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | LAA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SEA | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | SEA current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SEA | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | SEA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SEA | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | SEA current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SEA | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | SEA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.440. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.560. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.560. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.503/0.690. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_OUTS | Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: LAA 9, SEA 8. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: LAA 3 - SEA 5. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: SEA. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for SEA; cap=0.56, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'opponent_team': 'LAA', 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-26', 'predicted_team_runs': 8, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'SEA'}, {'date': '2026-09-25', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'LAA'}, {'date': '2026-09-24', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'LAA'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 9, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 2, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260926', 'away': 'LAA', 'home': 'SEA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'actual_winner': 'SEA', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.518021, 'artifact': '20260926_LAA@SEA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260925', 'away': 'LAA', 'home': 'SEA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAA', 'actual_winner': 'LAA', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.518016, 'artifact': '20260925_LAA@SEA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260924', 'away': 'LAA', 'home': 'SEA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'actual_winner': 'LAA', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260924_LAA@SEA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260916', 'away': 'SEA', 'home': 'LAA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'actual_winner': 'SEA', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.505216, 'artifact': '20260916_SEA@LAA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260915', 'away': 'SEA', 'home': 'LAA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'actual_winner': 'LAA', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260915_SEA@LAA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'SEA', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'LAA', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'SEA', 'output_opponent_team': 'LAA', 'simulation_score_winner': 'SEA', 'final_score_winner': 'SEA', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'SEA', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'LAA 3 - 5 SEA', 'winner': 'SEA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'LAA 3 - 5 SEA', 'winner': 'SEA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0969, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.25, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'SEA', 'model_winner': 'SEA', 'simulation_winner': 'SEA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'SEA', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'SEA', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.3159, 'winner': 'SEA', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-27. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260927_LAA@SEA. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: LAA@SEA. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 4.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 4.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.8, 'home_run_delta': 0.0231, 'away_run_delta': -0.0231, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.018247406535588213}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.017925988138853925}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01744690816043522}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01713959011839124}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.017118316654488614}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.04590000506874616, '1': 0.068272125287155, '2': 0.09236255751903003, '3': 0.11365022924547595, '4': 0.12719396937429897, '5': 0.12947459576955728, '6': 0.11987384768291737, '7': 0.10094531454014366, '8': 0.07731606176164099, '9': 0.05386108794931847, '10': 0.03412733356391707, '11': 0.01966760292514507, '12': 0.010309137791734327, '13': 0.004914904637845052, '14': 0.002131226883074605}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.05684858055351045, '1': 0.0839707461994676, '2': 0.11125348772716633, '3': 0.13221370997717807, '4': 0.1409342614829668, '5': 0.13475159398441178, '6': 0.11556557202165559, '7': 0.08889969487514558, '8': 0.06134078117590277, '9': 0.03796431511082255, '10': 0.021075557494002715, '11': 0.010494453038373087, '12': 0.004687246359396607}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.25, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.3137, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.32, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.3159} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'LAA 3 - 5 SEA', 'winner': 'SEA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'LAA 3 - 5 SEA', 'winner': 'SEA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0969, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.25, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'SEA', 'model_winner': 'SEA', 'simulation_winner': 'SEA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'SEA', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'SEA', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.3159, 'winner': 'SEA', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 137. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 157. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | LAA | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | LAA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | LAA | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | LAA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 137. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | SEA | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | SEA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | SEA | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | SEA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 157. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 7 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | LAA | PITCHING_REALISM | current:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | LAA | STARTER_PRESENT | current:LAA includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | SEA | PITCHING_REALISM | current:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | SEA | STARTER_PRESENT | current:SEA includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | LAA | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | LAA | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:LAA includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | SEA | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | SEA | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:SEA includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | LAA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | LAA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | SEA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | SEA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | LAA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | LAA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | SEA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | SEA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: LAA 3 - 5 SEA. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: LAA 3 - 5 SEA. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: SEA wins 5-3. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=SEA, simulation=SEA, published=SEA. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.560. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): SEA wins 5-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: SEA wins 3-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 3-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-5, final 3-5 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 8. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: SEA wins 5-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | LAA | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | LAA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | LAA | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | LAA wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | SEA | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | SEA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | SEA | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | SEA wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. |
Passed checks
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PASS | batting | current | LAA | BATTING_REALISM | current:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | SEA | BATTING_REALISM | current:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | LAA | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | SEA | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | LAA | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | SEA | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | LAA | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | SEA | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAA | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:LAA batting walks match SEA pitching: 0. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAA | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:LAA batting home runs match SEA pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAA | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:LAA batting hits match SEA pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAA | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:LAA batting strikeouts match SEA pitching: 11. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAA | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:LAA PA=37 matches SEA BF=37. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAA | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:LAA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SEA | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:SEA batting walks match LAA pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SEA | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:SEA batting home runs match LAA pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SEA | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:SEA batting hits match LAA pitching: 8. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SEA | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:SEA batting strikeouts match LAA pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SEA | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:SEA PA=33 matches LAA BF=33. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SEA | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:SEA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.564 -> 0.558 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5636, 'sample_size': 279, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.552, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.5578, 'published_confidence': 0.56, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | LAA | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | LAA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | SEA | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | SEA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | LAA | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | LAA current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | LAA | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | LAA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | LAA | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | LAA current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | LAA | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | LAA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SEA | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | SEA current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SEA | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | SEA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SEA | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | SEA current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SEA | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | SEA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.440. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.560. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.560. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.503/0.690. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_OUTS | Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: LAA 9, SEA 8. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: LAA 3 - SEA 5. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: SEA. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for SEA; cap=0.56, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'opponent_team': 'LAA', 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-26', 'predicted_team_runs': 8, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'SEA'}, {'date': '2026-09-25', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'LAA'}, {'date': '2026-09-24', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'LAA'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 9, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 2, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260926', 'away': 'LAA', 'home': 'SEA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'actual_winner': 'SEA', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.518021, 'artifact': '20260926_LAA@SEA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260925', 'away': 'LAA', 'home': 'SEA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAA', 'actual_winner': 'LAA', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.518016, 'artifact': '20260925_LAA@SEA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260924', 'away': 'LAA', 'home': 'SEA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'actual_winner': 'LAA', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260924_LAA@SEA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260916', 'away': 'SEA', 'home': 'LAA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'actual_winner': 'SEA', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.505216, 'artifact': '20260916_SEA@LAA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260915', 'away': 'SEA', 'home': 'LAA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'actual_winner': 'LAA', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260915_SEA@LAA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'SEA', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'LAA', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'SEA', 'output_opponent_team': 'LAA', 'simulation_score_winner': 'SEA', 'final_score_winner': 'SEA', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'SEA', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'LAA 3 - 5 SEA', 'winner': 'SEA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'LAA 3 - 5 SEA', 'winner': 'SEA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0969, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.25, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'SEA', 'model_winner': 'SEA', 'simulation_winner': 'SEA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'SEA', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'SEA', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.3159, 'winner': 'SEA', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-27. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260927_LAA@SEA. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: LAA@SEA. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 4.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 4.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.8, 'home_run_delta': 0.0231, 'away_run_delta': -0.0231, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.018247406535588213}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.017925988138853925}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01744690816043522}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01713959011839124}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.017118316654488614}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.04590000506874616, '1': 0.068272125287155, '2': 0.09236255751903003, '3': 0.11365022924547595, '4': 0.12719396937429897, '5': 0.12947459576955728, '6': 0.11987384768291737, '7': 0.10094531454014366, '8': 0.07731606176164099, '9': 0.05386108794931847, '10': 0.03412733356391707, '11': 0.01966760292514507, '12': 0.010309137791734327, '13': 0.004914904637845052, '14': 0.002131226883074605}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.05684858055351045, '1': 0.0839707461994676, '2': 0.11125348772716633, '3': 0.13221370997717807, '4': 0.1409342614829668, '5': 0.13475159398441178, '6': 0.11556557202165559, '7': 0.08889969487514558, '8': 0.06134078117590277, '9': 0.03796431511082255, '10': 0.021075557494002715, '11': 0.010494453038373087, '12': 0.004687246359396607}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.25, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.3137, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.32, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.3159} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'LAA 3 - 5 SEA', 'winner': 'SEA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'LAA 3 - 5 SEA', 'winner': 'SEA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0969, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.25, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'SEA', 'model_winner': 'SEA', 'simulation_winner': 'SEA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'SEA', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'SEA', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.3159, 'winner': 'SEA', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 137. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 157. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | LAA | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | LAA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | LAA | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | LAA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 137. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | SEA | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | SEA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | SEA | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | SEA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 157. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 7 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | LAA | PITCHING_REALISM | current:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | LAA | STARTER_PRESENT | current:LAA includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | SEA | PITCHING_REALISM | current:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | SEA | STARTER_PRESENT | current:SEA includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | LAA | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | LAA | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:LAA includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | SEA | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | SEA | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:SEA includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | LAA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | LAA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | SEA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | SEA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | LAA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | LAA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | SEA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | SEA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: LAA 3 - 5 SEA. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: LAA 3 - 5 SEA. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: SEA wins 5-3. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=SEA, simulation=SEA, published=SEA. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.560. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): SEA wins 5-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: SEA wins 3-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 3-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-5, final 3-5 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 8. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: SEA wins 5-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | LAA | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | LAA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | LAA | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | LAA wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | SEA | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | SEA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | SEA | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | SEA wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. |
Info/context findings
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | LAA | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | LAA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | SEA | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | SEA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | LAA | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | LAA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=36; H: current=7, sim=9; 2B: current=1, sim=2; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=2, sim=0; HBP: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | LAA | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | LAA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Zach Neto: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Wade Meckler: R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Vaughn Grissom: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Moisés Ballesteros: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Josh Lowe: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2, HBP current=0 box=1; Oswald Peraza: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Bryce Teodosio: AB current=3 box=4; Christian Moore: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 3B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | SEA | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | SEA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=32; 2B: current=1, sim=2; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=4, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | SEA | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | SEA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Cal Raleigh: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Dominic Canzone: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Randy Arozarena: H current=1 box=3, 3B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=4; Julio Rodríguez: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; J.P. Crawford: H current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Josh Naylor: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Jhonny Pereda: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Cole Young: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. |
Score evolution
| step | away_runs | home_runs | confidence | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| historical_ml | 3.6176926855865745 | 5.219393250782495 | Base ML historical model prediction | |
| variance_applied | 4 | 5 | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) | |
| enhanced_prediction | 4 | 5 | 0.560 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail) |
| embedded_savant_run_environment | 3 | 5 | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality | |
| fundamental_edge_target_review | 3 | 5 | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments | |
| capped_target | 3 | 5 | Capped at max 12 realistic runs | |
| simulation_result | 3 | 5 | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
Inning-by-inning linescore
| team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| SEA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 8 |
Team totals - current + final simulation
| src | team | type | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | SO | SF | HBP | SB | CS | IP | ER | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | LAA | batting | 32 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | LAA | pitching | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 8.0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| current | SEA | batting | 34 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | SEA | pitching | 9 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 9.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| simulation | LAA | batting | 36 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 1 | |||||||
| simulation | LAA | pitching | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 8.0 | 5 | 33 | 137 | |||||||||
| simulation | SEA | batting | 32 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | SEA | pitching | 9 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 9.0 | 3 | 37 | 157 |
Batting lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | pos | name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | LAA | DH | Zach Neto | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | LAA | LF | Wade Meckler | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | LAA | 1B | Vaughn Grissom | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | LAA | C | Moisés Ballesteros | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | LAA | RF | Josh Lowe | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | LAA | SS | Oswald Peraza | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | LAA | CF | Bryce Teodosio | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | LAA | 2B | Christian Moore | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | LAA | 3B | Denzer Guzman | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | SEA | DH | Cal Raleigh | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | SEA | RF | Dominic Canzone | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | SEA | LF | Randy Arozarena | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | SEA | CF | Julio Rodríguez | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | SEA | SS | J.P. Crawford | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | SEA | 1B | Josh Naylor | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | SEA | C | Jhonny Pereda | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | SEA | 2B | Cole Young | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | SEA | 3B | Weston Wilson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| simulation | LAA | 1 | DH | Zach Neto | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.200 |
| simulation | LAA | 2 | LF | Wade Meckler | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | LAA | 3 | 1B | Vaughn Grissom | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | LAA | 4 | C | Moisés Ballesteros | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | LAA | 5 | 3B | Denzer Guzman | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | LAA | 6 | RF | Josh Lowe | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.000 |
| simulation | LAA | 7 | SS | Oswald Peraza | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 |
| simulation | LAA | 8 | 2B | Christian Moore | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | LAA | 9 | CF | Bryce Teodosio | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | SEA | 1 | SS | J.P. Crawford | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | SEA | 2 | LF | Randy Arozarena | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 |
| simulation | SEA | 3 | RF | Dominic Canzone | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | SEA | 4 | DH | Cal Raleigh | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | SEA | 5 | CF | Julio Rodríguez | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | SEA | 6 | 1B | Josh Naylor | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | SEA | 7 | 2B | Cole Young | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | SEA | 8 | C | Jhonny Pereda | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | SEA | 9 | 3B | Weston Wilson | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | name | role | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | BF | Pitches | sim_ERA | season_ERA | season_WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | LAA | 1 | Yusei Kikuchi | Starter | 5.0 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7.20 | 4.88 | 1.55 |
| current | LAA | 3 | Ryan Watson | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 1.26 |
| current | LAA | 5 | Mitch Farris | Closer | 2.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.50 | 4.05 | 1.48 |
| current | SEA | 1 | Logan Gilbert | Starter | 5.2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.81 | 1.10 |
| current | SEA | 2 | Eduard Bazardo | Setup Man | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18.00 | 3.80 | 1.42 |
| current | SEA | 3 | Gabe Speier | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.93 | 1.09 |
| current | SEA | 4 | José A. Ferrer | Closer | 1.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.75 | 4.18 | 1.45 |
| simulation | LAA | 1 | Yusei Kikuchi | Starter | 5.0 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 22 | 93 | 7.20 | 4.88 | 1.55 |
| simulation | LAA | 2 | Mitch Farris | Closer | 2.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 31 | 4.50 | 4.05 | 1.48 |
| simulation | LAA | 3 | Ryan Watson | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 1.26 |
| simulation | SEA | 1 | Logan Gilbert | Starter | 5.2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 22 | 95 | 0.00 | 3.81 | 1.10 |
| simulation | SEA | 2 | José A. Ferrer | Closer | 1.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 27 | 6.75 | 4.18 | 1.45 |
| simulation | SEA | 3 | Eduard Bazardo | Setup Man | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 18.00 | 3.80 | 1.42 |
| simulation | SEA | 4 | Gabe Speier | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 0.00 | 2.93 | 1.09 |
Pitch count summary
| team | pitcher | role | IP | R | H | BB | SO | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAA | Yusei Kikuchi | Starter | 5.0 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 8 | 22 | 93 |
| LAA | Ryan Watson | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| LAA | Mitch Farris | Closer | 2.0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 31 |
| SEA | Logan Gilbert | Starter | 5.2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 22 | 95 |
| SEA | Eduard Bazardo | Setup Man | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 19 |
| SEA | Gabe Speier | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 16 |
| SEA | José A. Ferrer | Closer | 1.1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 27 |
Audit rule catalog
| rule | status | critical | error | warning | pass | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATTING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints. |
| BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines. |
| BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts. |
| CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate. |
| CONFIDENCE_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | Confidence values are between 0 and 1. |
| CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup. |
| CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions. |
| CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance has usable player names. |
| CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled. |
| CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. |
| CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs. |
| DATE_PARSE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Game date can be parsed as an ISO date. |
| FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename and game_id identify the same game. |
| FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON. |
| FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner. |
| GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game_summary text agrees with final score. |
| GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner. |
| H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode. |
| INNINGS_COUNT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning count is valid for MLB. |
| INNING_OUTS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Each played half inning has valid outs. |
| INNING_PLAY_SUMS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches. |
| INNING_SEQUENCE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Innings are sequential and unique. |
| INNING_TOTAL_HITS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning hits sum to batting team hits. |
| INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning runs sum to final score. |
| LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent. |
| MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence. |
| OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards. |
| PA_BF_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced. |
| PIPELINE_VERSION | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them. |
| PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced. |
| PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds. |
| PITCHING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints. |
| PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines. |
| PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score. |
| PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals. |
| PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values. |
| PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result. |
| RECENT_FORM_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges. |
| RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score. |
| REPORT_COMPLETE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table. |
| REPORT_CSV_EXPORT | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows. |
| RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting/pitching runs agree with final score. |
| SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited. |
| SCORE_NO_TIE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final MLB score has a clear winner. |
| SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | score_evolution simulation_result matches final score. |
| SCORE_STEP_ORDER | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. |
| SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded. |
| STARTER_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected. |
| SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays. |
| TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target. |
| TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed. |
| TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | total_runs equals away + home runs. |
| WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | winner field agrees with the final score. |
20260927_LAD@SF
20260927_LAD@SF.json • 2026-09-27
LAD 6 - SF 3
PASSClean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.
CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 100INFO 8
No action required
No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.
Problems table - exact rows
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|
All findings - complete audit trail
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | LAD | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | LAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | SF | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | SF pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | LAD | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | LAD model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (HR: current=1, sim=2). | New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | LAD | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | LAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=35; 2B: current=1, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=4, sim=1; SO: current=7, sim=9). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | LAD | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | LAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Shohei Ohtani: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Teoscar Hernández: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Kyle Tucker: 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Mookie Betts: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=2; Max Muncy: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Freddie Freeman: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Hunter Feduccia: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2; Tommy Edman: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | SF | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | SF model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=30, sim=32; H: current=7, sim=5; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=2, sim=3; SO: current=10, sim=8). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | SF | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | SF current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Shay Whitcomb: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jonah Cox: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Victor Bericoto: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Bo Davidson: HR current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=3; Marcelo Mayer: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Drew Cavanaugh: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Scott Bandura: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1; Christian Koss: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. | |||||
| PASS | batting | current | LAD | BATTING_REALISM | current:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | SF | BATTING_REALISM | current:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | LAD | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | SF | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | LAD | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | SF | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SF batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | LAD | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | SF | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SF batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAD | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:LAD batting walks match SF pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAD | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:LAD batting home runs match SF pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAD | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:LAD batting hits match SF pitching: 8. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAD | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:LAD batting strikeouts match SF pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAD | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:LAD PA=36 matches SF BF=36. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAD | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:LAD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SF | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:SF batting walks match LAD pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SF | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:SF batting home runs match LAD pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SF | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:SF batting hits match LAD pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SF | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:SF batting strikeouts match LAD pitching: 8. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SF | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:SF PA=35 matches LAD BF=35. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SF | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:SF runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.586 -> 0.577 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5864, 'sample_size': 127, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5669, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.57665, 'published_confidence': 0.58, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | SF | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | SF current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | LAD | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | LAD current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | LAD | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | LAD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | LAD | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | LAD current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | LAD | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | LAD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SF | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | SF current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SF | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | SF current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SF | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | SF current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SF | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | SF hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.580. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.580. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.420. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.503/0.690. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: LAD 8, SF 5. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: LAD 6 - SF 3. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAD. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for LAD; cap=0.58, reasons=local prediction memory shows 5 straight prior same-side picks. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 5 straight prior same-side picks'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'opponent_team': 'SF', 'h2h_net_margin': 5, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-26', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'LAD'}, {'date': '2026-09-25', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 0, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'LAD'}, {'date': '2026-09-20', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'LAD'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 5, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 5, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260926', 'away': 'LAD', 'home': 'SF', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.553474, 'artifact': '20260926_LAD@SF.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260925', 'away': 'LAD', 'home': 'SF', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.566085, 'artifact': '20260925_LAD@SF.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260920', 'away': 'SF', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.58, 'artifact': '20260920_SF@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260919', 'away': 'SF', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 6, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.565131, 'artifact': '20260919_SF@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260918', 'away': 'SF', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 6, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.538282, 'artifact': '20260918_SF@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'LAD', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'SF', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'output_opponent_team': 'SF', 'simulation_score_winner': 'LAD', 'final_score_winner': 'LAD', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'LAD 6 - 3 SF', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'LAD 6 - 3 SF', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0029, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -1.146, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'LAD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'LAD', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 3, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.6311, 'winner': 'LAD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-27. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260927_LAD@SF. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: LAD@SF. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -17.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 17.0, 'home_average_margin': -3.4, 'home_run_delta': -0.0981, 'away_run_delta': 0.0981, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -6.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -6.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01954828371386825}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.0195423111003728}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.019090962987667506}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.0190851300999905}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.017749180116119846}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.065610509578725, '1': 0.09635796359256105, '2': 0.12548467223928364, '3': 0.14490474712942605, '4': 0.14837591535860192, '5': 0.1347203102401079, '6': 0.10846549498506376, '7': 0.07743530190665761, '8': 0.04902021983315085, '9': 0.02751695529828516, '10': 0.013696650290467018, '11': 0.006045291142782789, '12': 0.002365968404887225}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.04909625105871393, '1': 0.07287972313166184, '2': 0.09800366647045199, '3': 0.11938648332391494, '4': 0.13174836136055526, '5': 0.13170810810596867, '6': 0.1192770878145432, '7': 0.09785404196618301, '8': 0.07272399664688074, '9': 0.04896141193856422, '10': 0.029861206804832698, '11': 0.01649825468629886, '12': 0.008257448589865346, '13': 0.0037439581015650874}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.25, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -2.0807, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.796, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -1.6311} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'LAD 6 - 3 SF', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'LAD 6 - 3 SF', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0029, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -1.146, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'LAD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'LAD', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 3, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.6311, 'winner': 'LAD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 145. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 145. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | LAD | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | LAD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | LAD | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | LAD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 145. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | SF | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | SF pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | SF | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | SF pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 145. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 7 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | LAD | PITCHING_REALISM | current:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | LAD | STARTER_PRESENT | current:LAD includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | SF | PITCHING_REALISM | current:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | SF | STARTER_PRESENT | current:SF includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | LAD | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | LAD | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:LAD includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | SF | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | SF | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:SF includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | LAD | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | LAD | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | SF | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | SF | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | LAD | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | LAD | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | SF | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | SF | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: LAD 6 - 3 SF. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: LAD 6 - 3 SF. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: LAD wins 6-3. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=LAD, simulation=LAD, published=LAD. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.580. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): LAD wins 6-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: LAD wins 6-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 6-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-3, final 6-3 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 9. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: LAD wins 6-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | LAD | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | LAD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | LAD | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | LAD wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | SF | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | SF recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | SF | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | SF wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200. |
Passed checks
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PASS | batting | current | LAD | BATTING_REALISM | current:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | SF | BATTING_REALISM | current:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | LAD | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | SF | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | LAD | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | SF | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SF batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | LAD | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | SF | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SF batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAD | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:LAD batting walks match SF pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAD | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:LAD batting home runs match SF pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAD | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:LAD batting hits match SF pitching: 8. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAD | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:LAD batting strikeouts match SF pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAD | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:LAD PA=36 matches SF BF=36. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAD | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:LAD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SF | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:SF batting walks match LAD pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SF | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:SF batting home runs match LAD pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SF | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:SF batting hits match LAD pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SF | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:SF batting strikeouts match LAD pitching: 8. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SF | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:SF PA=35 matches LAD BF=35. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SF | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:SF runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.586 -> 0.577 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5864, 'sample_size': 127, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5669, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.57665, 'published_confidence': 0.58, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | SF | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | SF current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | LAD | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | LAD current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | LAD | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | LAD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | LAD | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | LAD current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | LAD | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | LAD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SF | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | SF current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SF | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | SF current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SF | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | SF current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SF | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | SF hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.580. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.580. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.420. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.503/0.690. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: LAD 8, SF 5. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: LAD 6 - SF 3. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAD. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for LAD; cap=0.58, reasons=local prediction memory shows 5 straight prior same-side picks. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 5 straight prior same-side picks'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'opponent_team': 'SF', 'h2h_net_margin': 5, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-26', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'LAD'}, {'date': '2026-09-25', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 0, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'LAD'}, {'date': '2026-09-20', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'LAD'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 5, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 5, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260926', 'away': 'LAD', 'home': 'SF', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.553474, 'artifact': '20260926_LAD@SF.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260925', 'away': 'LAD', 'home': 'SF', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.566085, 'artifact': '20260925_LAD@SF.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260920', 'away': 'SF', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.58, 'artifact': '20260920_SF@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260919', 'away': 'SF', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 6, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.565131, 'artifact': '20260919_SF@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260918', 'away': 'SF', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 6, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.538282, 'artifact': '20260918_SF@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'LAD', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'SF', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'output_opponent_team': 'SF', 'simulation_score_winner': 'LAD', 'final_score_winner': 'LAD', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'LAD 6 - 3 SF', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'LAD 6 - 3 SF', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0029, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -1.146, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'LAD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'LAD', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 3, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.6311, 'winner': 'LAD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-27. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260927_LAD@SF. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: LAD@SF. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -17.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 17.0, 'home_average_margin': -3.4, 'home_run_delta': -0.0981, 'away_run_delta': 0.0981, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -6.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -6.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01954828371386825}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.0195423111003728}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.019090962987667506}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.0190851300999905}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.017749180116119846}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.065610509578725, '1': 0.09635796359256105, '2': 0.12548467223928364, '3': 0.14490474712942605, '4': 0.14837591535860192, '5': 0.1347203102401079, '6': 0.10846549498506376, '7': 0.07743530190665761, '8': 0.04902021983315085, '9': 0.02751695529828516, '10': 0.013696650290467018, '11': 0.006045291142782789, '12': 0.002365968404887225}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.04909625105871393, '1': 0.07287972313166184, '2': 0.09800366647045199, '3': 0.11938648332391494, '4': 0.13174836136055526, '5': 0.13170810810596867, '6': 0.1192770878145432, '7': 0.09785404196618301, '8': 0.07272399664688074, '9': 0.04896141193856422, '10': 0.029861206804832698, '11': 0.01649825468629886, '12': 0.008257448589865346, '13': 0.0037439581015650874}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.25, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -2.0807, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.796, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -1.6311} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'LAD 6 - 3 SF', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'LAD 6 - 3 SF', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0029, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -1.146, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'LAD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'LAD', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 3, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.6311, 'winner': 'LAD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 145. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 145. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | LAD | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | LAD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | LAD | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | LAD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 145. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | SF | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | SF pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | SF | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | SF pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 145. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 7 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | LAD | PITCHING_REALISM | current:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | LAD | STARTER_PRESENT | current:LAD includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | SF | PITCHING_REALISM | current:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | SF | STARTER_PRESENT | current:SF includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | LAD | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | LAD | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:LAD includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | SF | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | SF | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:SF includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | LAD | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | LAD | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | SF | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | SF | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | LAD | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | LAD | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | SF | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | SF | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: LAD 6 - 3 SF. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: LAD 6 - 3 SF. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: LAD wins 6-3. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=LAD, simulation=LAD, published=LAD. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.580. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): LAD wins 6-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: LAD wins 6-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 6-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-3, final 6-3 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 9. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: LAD wins 6-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | LAD | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | LAD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | LAD | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | LAD wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | SF | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | SF recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | SF | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | SF wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200. |
Info/context findings
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | LAD | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | LAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | SF | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | SF pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | LAD | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | LAD model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (HR: current=1, sim=2). | New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | LAD | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | LAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=35; 2B: current=1, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=4, sim=1; SO: current=7, sim=9). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | LAD | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | LAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Shohei Ohtani: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Teoscar Hernández: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Kyle Tucker: 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Mookie Betts: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=2; Max Muncy: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Freddie Freeman: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Hunter Feduccia: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2; Tommy Edman: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | SF | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | SF model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=30, sim=32; H: current=7, sim=5; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=2, sim=3; SO: current=10, sim=8). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | SF | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | SF current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Shay Whitcomb: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jonah Cox: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Victor Bericoto: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Bo Davidson: HR current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=3; Marcelo Mayer: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Drew Cavanaugh: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Scott Bandura: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1; Christian Koss: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. |
Score evolution
| step | away_runs | home_runs | confidence | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| historical_ml | 6.1952280788779195 | 2.2530065137073514 | Base ML historical model prediction | |
| variance_applied | 6 | 2 | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) | |
| enhanced_prediction | 5 | 4 | 0.580 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail) |
| embedded_savant_run_environment | 6 | 3 | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality | |
| fundamental_edge_target_review | 6 | 3 | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments | |
| capped_target | 6 | 3 | Capped at max 12 realistic runs | |
| simulation_result | 6 | 3 | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
Inning-by-inning linescore
| team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| SF | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
Team totals - current + final simulation
| src | team | type | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | SO | SF | HBP | SB | CS | IP | ER | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | LAD | batting | 33 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | LAD | pitching | 5 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 9.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| current | SF | batting | 30 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | SF | pitching | 8 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| simulation | LAD | batting | 35 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | LAD | pitching | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 9.0 | 3 | 35 | 145 | |||||||||
| simulation | SF | batting | 32 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | SF | pitching | 8 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 6 | 36 | 145 |
Batting lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | pos | name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | LAD | DH | Shohei Ohtani | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | LAD | LF | Teoscar Hernández | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | LAD | RF | Kyle Tucker | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | LAD | SS | Mookie Betts | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | LAD | 3B | Max Muncy | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | LAD | 1B | Freddie Freeman | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | LAD | C | Hunter Feduccia | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | LAD | 2B | Tommy Edman | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | LAD | CF | Andy Pages | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | SF | 1B | Shay Whitcomb | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | SF | 2B | Jonah Cox | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | SF | DH | Victor Bericoto | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | SF | RF | Bo Davidson | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | SF | 3B | Marcelo Mayer | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | SF | C | Drew Cavanaugh | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | SF | LF | Scott Bandura | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | SF | SS | Christian Koss | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | SF | CF | Drew Gilbert | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| simulation | LAD | 1 | DH | Shohei Ohtani | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | LAD | 2 | SS | Mookie Betts | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | LAD | 3 | 1B | Freddie Freeman | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | LAD | 4 | RF | Kyle Tucker | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | LAD | 5 | LF | Teoscar Hernández | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | LAD | 6 | 3B | Max Muncy | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 |
| simulation | LAD | 7 | CF | Andy Pages | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | LAD | 8 | C | Hunter Feduccia | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | LAD | 9 | 2B | Tommy Edman | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | SF | 1 | 2B | Jonah Cox | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | SF | 2 | RF | Bo Davidson | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | SF | 3 | DH | Victor Bericoto | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | SF | 4 | 3B | Marcelo Mayer | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | SF | 5 | 1B | Shay Whitcomb | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | SF | 6 | C | Drew Cavanaugh | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | SF | 7 | LF | Scott Bandura | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | SF | 8 | SS | Christian Koss | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | SF | 9 | CF | Drew Gilbert | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | name | role | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | BF | Pitches | sim_ERA | season_ERA | season_WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | LAD | 1 | Jack Dreyer | Starter | 5.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.80 | 3.16 | 1.10 |
| current | LAD | 2 | Alex Vesia | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18.00 | 2.68 | 1.09 |
| current | LAD | 3 | Brock Stewart | Setup Man | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.36 | 0.97 |
| current | LAD | 4 | Tanner Scott | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.69 | 0.99 |
| current | SF | 1 | Carson Seymour | Starter | 4.0 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9.00 | 4.70 | 1.53 |
| current | SF | 2 | Dylan Smith | Closer | 3.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.96 | 1.45 |
| current | SF | 5 | Trent Harris | Setup Man | 2.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9.00 | 2.42 | 1.12 |
| simulation | LAD | 1 | Jack Dreyer | Starter | 5.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 20 | 84 | 1.80 | 3.16 | 1.10 |
| simulation | LAD | 2 | Tanner Scott | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 2.69 | 0.99 |
| simulation | LAD | 3 | Brock Stewart | Setup Man | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 0.00 | 2.36 | 0.97 |
| simulation | LAD | 4 | Alex Vesia | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 23 | 18.00 | 2.68 | 1.09 |
| simulation | SF | 1 | Carson Seymour | Starter | 4.0 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 19 | 76 | 9.00 | 4.70 | 1.53 |
| simulation | SF | 2 | Dylan Smith | Closer | 3.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 0.00 | 3.96 | 1.45 |
| simulation | SF | 3 | Trent Harris | Setup Man | 2.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 31 | 9.00 | 2.42 | 1.12 |
Pitch count summary
| team | pitcher | role | IP | R | H | BB | SO | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD | Jack Dreyer | Starter | 5.0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 20 | 84 |
| LAD | Alex Vesia | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 23 |
| LAD | Brock Stewart | Setup Man | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 25 |
| LAD | Tanner Scott | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
| SF | Carson Seymour | Starter | 4.0 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 76 |
| SF | Dylan Smith | Closer | 3.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 38 |
| SF | Trent Harris | Setup Man | 2.0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 31 |
Audit rule catalog
| rule | status | critical | error | warning | pass | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATTING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints. |
| BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines. |
| BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts. |
| CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate. |
| CONFIDENCE_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | Confidence values are between 0 and 1. |
| CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup. |
| CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions. |
| CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance has usable player names. |
| CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled. |
| CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. |
| CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs. |
| DATE_PARSE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Game date can be parsed as an ISO date. |
| FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename and game_id identify the same game. |
| FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON. |
| FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner. |
| GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game_summary text agrees with final score. |
| GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner. |
| H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode. |
| INNINGS_COUNT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning count is valid for MLB. |
| INNING_OUTS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Each played half inning has valid outs. |
| INNING_PLAY_SUMS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches. |
| INNING_SEQUENCE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Innings are sequential and unique. |
| INNING_TOTAL_HITS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning hits sum to batting team hits. |
| INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning runs sum to final score. |
| LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent. |
| MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence. |
| OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards. |
| PA_BF_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced. |
| PIPELINE_VERSION | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them. |
| PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced. |
| PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds. |
| PITCHING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints. |
| PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines. |
| PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score. |
| PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals. |
| PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values. |
| PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result. |
| RECENT_FORM_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges. |
| RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score. |
| REPORT_COMPLETE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table. |
| REPORT_CSV_EXPORT | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows. |
| RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting/pitching runs agree with final score. |
| SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited. |
| SCORE_NO_TIE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final MLB score has a clear winner. |
| SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | score_evolution simulation_result matches final score. |
| SCORE_STEP_ORDER | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. |
| SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded. |
| STARTER_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected. |
| SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays. |
| TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target. |
| TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed. |
| TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | total_runs equals away + home runs. |
| WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | winner field agrees with the final score. |
20260927_NYM@WAS
20260927_NYM@WAS.json • 2026-09-27
NYM 7 - WAS 5
WARNINGFinal simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.
CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 99INFO 9
Action summary - what to fix first
| Level | Problem group / fix | Count | Teams | Example |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WARN | Pitch count summary differs by pitcher Pitch-count rows disagree with individual pitching box-score rows. Recalculate pitch_count_summary from the same final pitcher ledger used by box_score.pitching. | 0C / 0E / 1W | NYM | NYM pitch_count row for Sean Manaea differs from pitching box score: batters_faced/BF: summary=26, box=24. |
Problems table - exact rows
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WARN | pitch_count | simulation | NYM | Sean Manaea | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | NYM pitch_count row for Sean Manaea differs from pitching box score: batters_faced/BF: summary=26, box=24. |
All findings - complete audit trail
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WARN | pitch_count | simulation | NYM | Sean Manaea | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | NYM pitch_count row for Sean Manaea differs from pitching box score: batters_faced/BF: summary=26, box=24. | ||
| INFO | current_payload | current | NYM | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | NYM pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | WAS | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | WAS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | NYM | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | NYM model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=8, sim=7). | New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | NYM | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | NYM model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=40; H: current=9, sim=13; 2B: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=5, sim=7; R: current=4, sim=7; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=11; HBP: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | NYM | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | NYM current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Carson Benge: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1; Francisco Lindor: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1; Marcus Semien: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Brett Baty: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; A.J. Ewing: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Ronny Mauricio: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Juan Soto: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Bo Bichette: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | WAS | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | WAS model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (ER: current=6, sim=7). | New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | WAS | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | WAS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=31; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=2, sim=1; R: current=6, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=9; HBP: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | WAS | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | WAS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: James Wood: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; CJ Abrams: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Brady House: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=4; Dylan Crews: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Andrés Chaparro: H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Nasim Nuñez: AB current=3 box=2, BB current=0 box=1; Jacob Young: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Harry Ford: H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. | |||||
| PASS | batting | current | NYM | BATTING_REALISM | current:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | WAS | BATTING_REALISM | current:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | NYM | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | WAS | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | NYM | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | WAS | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | NYM | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | WAS | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYM | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:NYM batting walks match WAS pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYM | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:NYM batting home runs match WAS pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYM | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:NYM batting hits match WAS pitching: 13. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYM | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:NYM batting strikeouts match WAS pitching: 11. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYM | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:NYM PA=43 matches WAS BF=43. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYM | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:NYM runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | WAS | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:WAS batting walks match NYM pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | WAS | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:WAS batting home runs match NYM pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | WAS | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:WAS batting hits match NYM pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | WAS | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:WAS batting strikeouts match NYM pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | WAS | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:WAS PA=34 matches NYM BF=34. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | WAS | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:WAS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.560 -> 0.559 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.56, 'sample_size': 288, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.559, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.5595, 'published_confidence': 0.530557, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYM | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | NYM current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYM | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | NYM current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYM | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | NYM current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYM | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | NYM hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | WAS | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | WAS current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | WAS | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | WAS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | WAS | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | WAS current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | WAS | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | WAS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.531. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.531. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.469. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 12 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 12.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.503/0.690. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_OUTS | Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: NYM 13, WAS 7. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: NYM 7 - WAS 5. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: NYM. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for NYM; cap=0.6, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.6, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'NYM', 'opponent_team': 'WAS', 'h2h_net_margin': 6, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-26', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 6, 'winner': 'NYM'}, {'date': '2026-09-25', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'WAS'}, {'date': '2026-08-16', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'NYM'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 5, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260926', 'away': 'NYM', 'home': 'WAS', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'WAS', 'actual_winner': 'NYM', 'actual_margin': 6, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.506441, 'artifact': '20260926_NYM@WAS.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260925', 'away': 'NYM', 'home': 'WAS', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'WAS', 'actual_winner': 'WAS', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.512742, 'artifact': '20260925_NYM@WAS.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260816', 'away': 'WAS', 'home': 'NYM', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYM', 'actual_winner': 'NYM', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.624342, 'artifact': '20260816_WAS@NYM.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260815', 'away': 'WAS', 'home': 'NYM', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYM', 'actual_winner': 'NYM', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.571933, 'artifact': '20260815_WAS@NYM.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260814', 'away': 'WAS', 'home': 'NYM', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'WAS', 'actual_winner': 'NYM', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260814_WAS@NYM.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'NYM', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'WAS', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'NYM', 'output_opponent_team': 'WAS', 'simulation_score_winner': 'NYM', 'final_score_winner': 'NYM', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'NYM', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'NYM 7 - 5 WAS', 'winner': 'NYM'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'NYM 7 - 5 WAS', 'winner': 'NYM'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0594, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.194, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'NYM', 'model_winner': 'NYM', 'simulation_winner': 'NYM', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'NYM', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.155, 'winner': 'NYM', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-27. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260927_NYM@WAS. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: NYM@WAS. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -10.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 10.0, 'home_average_margin': -2.0, 'home_run_delta': -0.0577, 'away_run_delta': 0.0577, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -6.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.013187941527658646}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.013020450624384243}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.01298919568586277}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.012824228915751577}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01245026690992325}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.03712819006872227, '1': 0.0555362784218213, '2': 0.0764110590258, '3': 0.09670348255720367, '4': 0.11257305717308697, '5': 0.12054057445467453, '6': 0.11872399543130621, '7': 0.10755985314699823, '8': 0.08963308577527465, '9': 0.06870572801326073, '10': 0.04844221512111135, '11': 0.031416767094587114, '12': 0.018741547212036948, '13': 0.010283852536119204, '14': 0.0051905417673481485, '15': 0.002409772200648926}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.02696580672141111, '1': 0.04060303642002135, '2': 0.056984174216249926, '3': 0.07454193404464202, '4': 0.09088614969293639, '5': 0.10328693857855123, '6': 0.10940665902183462, '7': 0.10801716088784837, '8': 0.09940137943681555, '9': 0.08525948708916206, '10': 0.06816221127680468, '11': 0.05079199574439139, '12': 0.03527747846190145, '13': 0.02283759906314, '14': 0.013780151877852548, '15': 0.007750116221150925, '16': 0.004062684315545234, '17': 0.001985036929741095}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.25, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.2298, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.016, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.155} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'NYM 7 - 5 WAS', 'winner': 'NYM'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'NYM 7 - 5 WAS', 'winner': 'NYM'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0594, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.194, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'NYM', 'model_winner': 'NYM', 'simulation_winner': 'NYM', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'NYM', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.155, 'winner': 'NYM', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 136. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 179. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | NYM | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | NYM pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 136. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | WAS | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | WAS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | WAS | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | WAS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 179. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 11 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | NYM | PITCHING_REALISM | current:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | NYM | STARTER_PRESENT | current:NYM includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | WAS | PITCHING_REALISM | current:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | WAS | STARTER_PRESENT | current:WAS includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | NYM | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | NYM | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:NYM includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | WAS | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | WAS | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:WAS includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | NYM | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | NYM | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | WAS | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | WAS | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | NYM | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | NYM | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | WAS | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | WAS | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: NYM 7 - 5 WAS. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: NYM 7 - 5 WAS. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYM wins 7-5. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=NYM, simulation=NYM, published=NYM. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.531. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): NYM wins 7-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: NYM wins 7-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 7-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 7-5, final 7-5 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 12. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: NYM wins 7-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | NYM | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | NYM recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | NYM | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | NYM wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | WAS | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | WAS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | WAS | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | WAS wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500. |
Passed checks
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PASS | batting | current | NYM | BATTING_REALISM | current:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | WAS | BATTING_REALISM | current:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | NYM | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | WAS | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | NYM | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | WAS | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | NYM | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | WAS | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYM | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:NYM batting walks match WAS pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYM | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:NYM batting home runs match WAS pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYM | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:NYM batting hits match WAS pitching: 13. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYM | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:NYM batting strikeouts match WAS pitching: 11. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYM | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:NYM PA=43 matches WAS BF=43. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYM | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:NYM runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | WAS | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:WAS batting walks match NYM pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | WAS | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:WAS batting home runs match NYM pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | WAS | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:WAS batting hits match NYM pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | WAS | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:WAS batting strikeouts match NYM pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | WAS | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:WAS PA=34 matches NYM BF=34. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | WAS | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:WAS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.560 -> 0.559 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.56, 'sample_size': 288, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.559, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.5595, 'published_confidence': 0.530557, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYM | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | NYM current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYM | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | NYM current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYM | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | NYM current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYM | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | NYM hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | WAS | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | WAS current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | WAS | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | WAS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | WAS | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | WAS current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | WAS | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | WAS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.531. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.531. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.469. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 12 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 12.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.503/0.690. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_OUTS | Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: NYM 13, WAS 7. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: NYM 7 - WAS 5. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: NYM. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for NYM; cap=0.6, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.6, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'NYM', 'opponent_team': 'WAS', 'h2h_net_margin': 6, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-26', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 6, 'winner': 'NYM'}, {'date': '2026-09-25', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'WAS'}, {'date': '2026-08-16', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'NYM'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 5, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260926', 'away': 'NYM', 'home': 'WAS', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'WAS', 'actual_winner': 'NYM', 'actual_margin': 6, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.506441, 'artifact': '20260926_NYM@WAS.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260925', 'away': 'NYM', 'home': 'WAS', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'WAS', 'actual_winner': 'WAS', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.512742, 'artifact': '20260925_NYM@WAS.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260816', 'away': 'WAS', 'home': 'NYM', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYM', 'actual_winner': 'NYM', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.624342, 'artifact': '20260816_WAS@NYM.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260815', 'away': 'WAS', 'home': 'NYM', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYM', 'actual_winner': 'NYM', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.571933, 'artifact': '20260815_WAS@NYM.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260814', 'away': 'WAS', 'home': 'NYM', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'WAS', 'actual_winner': 'NYM', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260814_WAS@NYM.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'NYM', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'WAS', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'NYM', 'output_opponent_team': 'WAS', 'simulation_score_winner': 'NYM', 'final_score_winner': 'NYM', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'NYM', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'NYM 7 - 5 WAS', 'winner': 'NYM'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'NYM 7 - 5 WAS', 'winner': 'NYM'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0594, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.194, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'NYM', 'model_winner': 'NYM', 'simulation_winner': 'NYM', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'NYM', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.155, 'winner': 'NYM', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-27. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260927_NYM@WAS. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: NYM@WAS. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -10.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 10.0, 'home_average_margin': -2.0, 'home_run_delta': -0.0577, 'away_run_delta': 0.0577, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -6.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.013187941527658646}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.013020450624384243}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.01298919568586277}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.012824228915751577}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01245026690992325}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.03712819006872227, '1': 0.0555362784218213, '2': 0.0764110590258, '3': 0.09670348255720367, '4': 0.11257305717308697, '5': 0.12054057445467453, '6': 0.11872399543130621, '7': 0.10755985314699823, '8': 0.08963308577527465, '9': 0.06870572801326073, '10': 0.04844221512111135, '11': 0.031416767094587114, '12': 0.018741547212036948, '13': 0.010283852536119204, '14': 0.0051905417673481485, '15': 0.002409772200648926}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.02696580672141111, '1': 0.04060303642002135, '2': 0.056984174216249926, '3': 0.07454193404464202, '4': 0.09088614969293639, '5': 0.10328693857855123, '6': 0.10940665902183462, '7': 0.10801716088784837, '8': 0.09940137943681555, '9': 0.08525948708916206, '10': 0.06816221127680468, '11': 0.05079199574439139, '12': 0.03527747846190145, '13': 0.02283759906314, '14': 0.013780151877852548, '15': 0.007750116221150925, '16': 0.004062684315545234, '17': 0.001985036929741095}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.25, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.2298, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.016, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.155} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'NYM 7 - 5 WAS', 'winner': 'NYM'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'NYM 7 - 5 WAS', 'winner': 'NYM'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0594, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.194, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'NYM', 'model_winner': 'NYM', 'simulation_winner': 'NYM', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'NYM', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.155, 'winner': 'NYM', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 136. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 179. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | NYM | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | NYM pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 136. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | WAS | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | WAS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | WAS | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | WAS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 179. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 11 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | NYM | PITCHING_REALISM | current:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | NYM | STARTER_PRESENT | current:NYM includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | WAS | PITCHING_REALISM | current:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | WAS | STARTER_PRESENT | current:WAS includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | NYM | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | NYM | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:NYM includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | WAS | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | WAS | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:WAS includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | NYM | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | NYM | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | WAS | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | WAS | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | NYM | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | NYM | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | WAS | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | WAS | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: NYM 7 - 5 WAS. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: NYM 7 - 5 WAS. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYM wins 7-5. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=NYM, simulation=NYM, published=NYM. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.531. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): NYM wins 7-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: NYM wins 7-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 7-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 7-5, final 7-5 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 12. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: NYM wins 7-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | NYM | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | NYM recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | NYM | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | NYM wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | WAS | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | WAS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | WAS | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | WAS wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500. |
Info/context findings
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | NYM | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | NYM pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | WAS | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | WAS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | NYM | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | NYM model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=8, sim=7). | New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | NYM | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | NYM model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=40; H: current=9, sim=13; 2B: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=5, sim=7; R: current=4, sim=7; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=11; HBP: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | NYM | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | NYM current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Carson Benge: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1; Francisco Lindor: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1; Marcus Semien: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Brett Baty: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; A.J. Ewing: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Ronny Mauricio: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Juan Soto: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Bo Bichette: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | WAS | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | WAS model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (ER: current=6, sim=7). | New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | WAS | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | WAS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=31; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=2, sim=1; R: current=6, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=9; HBP: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | WAS | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | WAS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: James Wood: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; CJ Abrams: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Brady House: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=4; Dylan Crews: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Andrés Chaparro: H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Nasim Nuñez: AB current=3 box=2, BB current=0 box=1; Jacob Young: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Harry Ford: H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. |
Score evolution
| step | away_runs | home_runs | confidence | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| historical_ml | 6.314753111603038 | 3.9979935952192145 | Base ML historical model prediction | |
| variance_applied | 6 | 4 | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) | |
| enhanced_prediction | 6 | 5 | 0.531 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail) |
| embedded_savant_run_environment | 7 | 5 | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality | |
| fundamental_edge_target_review | 7 | 5 | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments | |
| capped_target | 7 | 5 | Capped at max 12 realistic runs | |
| simulation_result | 7 | 5 | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
Inning-by-inning linescore
| team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| WAS | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
Team totals - current + final simulation
| src | team | type | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | SO | SF | HBP | SB | CS | IP | ER | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | NYM | batting | 32 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | NYM | pitching | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 9.0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| current | WAS | batting | 33 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | WAS | pitching | 13 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 11 | 9.0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| simulation | NYM | batting | 40 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 1 | |||||||
| simulation | NYM | pitching | 7 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 8.0 | 5 | 34 | 136 | |||||||||
| simulation | WAS | batting | 31 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 1 | |||||||
| simulation | WAS | pitching | 13 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 11 | 9.0 | 7 | 43 | 179 |
Batting lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | pos | name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | NYM | RF | Carson Benge | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | NYM | SS | Francisco Lindor | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | NYM | 2B | Marcus Semien | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | NYM | 1B | Brett Baty | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | NYM | CF | A.J. Ewing | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | NYM | DH | Ronny Mauricio | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | NYM | LF | Juan Soto | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | NYM | 3B | Bo Bichette | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | NYM | C | Luis Torrens | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | WAS | DH | James Wood | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | WAS | 2B | CJ Abrams | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | WAS | 3B | Brady House | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | WAS | RF | Dylan Crews | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | WAS | 1B | Andrés Chaparro | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | WAS | SS | Nasim Nuñez | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | WAS | CF | Jacob Young | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | WAS | C | Harry Ford | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | WAS | LF | Daylen Lile | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| simulation | NYM | 1 | SS | Francisco Lindor | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.400 |
| simulation | NYM | 2 | LF | Juan Soto | 5 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.600 |
| simulation | NYM | 3 | 3B | Bo Bichette | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 |
| simulation | NYM | 4 | RF | Carson Benge | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.600 |
| simulation | NYM | 5 | 2B | Marcus Semien | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.400 |
| simulation | NYM | 6 | 1B | Brett Baty | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | NYM | 7 | C | Luis Torrens | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | NYM | 8 | CF | A.J. Ewing | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | NYM | 9 | DH | Ronny Mauricio | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | WAS | 1 | DH | James Wood | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | WAS | 2 | 1B | Andrés Chaparro | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | WAS | 3 | 3B | Brady House | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.667 |
| simulation | WAS | 4 | 2B | CJ Abrams | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | WAS | 5 | RF | Dylan Crews | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | WAS | 6 | CF | Jacob Young | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | WAS | 7 | LF | Daylen Lile | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | WAS | 8 | C | Harry Ford | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | WAS | 9 | SS | Nasim Nuñez | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | name | role | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | BF | Pitches | sim_ERA | season_ERA | season_WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | NYM | 1 | Sean Manaea | Starter | 5.2 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6.35 | 4.67 | 1.30 |
| current | NYM | 2 | Jonathan Pintaro | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 5.28 | 1.37 |
| current | NYM | 3 | Kodai Senga | Closer | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.00 | 7.34 | 1.65 |
| current | NYM | 4 | Nathan Lavender | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.66 | 0.74 |
| current | NYM | 5 | Devin Williams | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.98 | 1.48 |
| current | WAS | 1 | DJ Herz | Starter | 3.2 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9.82 | 9.00 | 1.75 |
| current | WAS | 2 | Brad Lord | Setup Man | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.78 | 1.22 |
| current | WAS | 3 | Will Dion | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.78 | 1.20 |
| current | WAS | 4 | Erik Tolman | Closer | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.21 | 1.43 |
| current | WAS | 5 | Yovanny Cruz | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18.00 | 5.06 | 1.56 |
| current | WAS | 6 | Jack Sinclair | Middle Reliever | 0.2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.61 | 0.97 |
| simulation | NYM | 1 | Sean Manaea | Starter | 5.2 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 24 | 100 | 6.35 | 4.67 | 1.30 |
| simulation | NYM | 2 | Kodai Senga | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 9.00 | 7.34 | 1.65 |
| simulation | NYM | 3 | Nathan Lavender | Setup Man | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 1.66 | 0.74 |
| simulation | NYM | 4 | Jonathan Pintaro | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0.00 | 5.28 | 1.37 |
| simulation | NYM | 5 | Devin Williams | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.00 | 3.98 | 1.48 |
| simulation | WAS | 1 | DJ Herz | Starter | 3.2 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 20 | 83 | 12.27 | 9.00 | 1.75 |
| simulation | WAS | 2 | Erik Tolman | Closer | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 0.00 | 3.21 | 1.43 |
| simulation | WAS | 3 | Brad Lord | Setup Man | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 0.00 | 3.78 | 1.22 |
| simulation | WAS | 4 | Yovanny Cruz | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 18.00 | 5.06 | 1.56 |
| simulation | WAS | 5 | Will Dion | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 0.00 | 3.78 | 1.20 |
| simulation | WAS | 6 | Jack Sinclair | Middle Reliever | 0.2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 0.00 | 2.61 | 0.97 |
Pitch count summary
| team | pitcher | role | IP | R | H | BB | SO | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | Sean Manaea | Starter | 5.2 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 26 | 100 |
| NYM | Jonathan Pintaro | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| NYM | Kodai Senga | Closer | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| NYM | Nathan Lavender | Setup Man | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
| NYM | Devin Williams | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| WAS | DJ Herz | Starter | 3.2 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 20 | 83 |
| WAS | Brad Lord | Setup Man | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 23 |
| WAS | Will Dion | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 17 |
| WAS | Erik Tolman | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 19 |
| WAS | Yovanny Cruz | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 19 |
| WAS | Jack Sinclair | Middle Reliever | 0.2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 18 |
Audit rule catalog
| rule | status | critical | error | warning | pass | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATTING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints. |
| BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines. |
| BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts. |
| CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate. |
| CONFIDENCE_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | Confidence values are between 0 and 1. |
| CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup. |
| CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions. |
| CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance has usable player names. |
| CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled. |
| CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. |
| CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs. |
| DATE_PARSE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Game date can be parsed as an ISO date. |
| FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename and game_id identify the same game. |
| FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON. |
| FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner. |
| GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game_summary text agrees with final score. |
| GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner. |
| H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode. |
| INNINGS_COUNT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning count is valid for MLB. |
| INNING_OUTS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Each played half inning has valid outs. |
| INNING_PLAY_SUMS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches. |
| INNING_SEQUENCE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Innings are sequential and unique. |
| INNING_TOTAL_HITS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning hits sum to batting team hits. |
| INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning runs sum to final score. |
| LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent. |
| MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence. |
| OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards. |
| PA_BF_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced. |
| PIPELINE_VERSION | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them. |
| PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced. |
| PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds. |
| PITCHING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints. |
| PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines. |
| PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | warning | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score. |
| PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals. |
| PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values. |
| PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result. |
| RECENT_FORM_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges. |
| RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score. |
| REPORT_COMPLETE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table. |
| REPORT_CSV_EXPORT | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows. |
| RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting/pitching runs agree with final score. |
| SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited. |
| SCORE_NO_TIE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final MLB score has a clear winner. |
| SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | score_evolution simulation_result matches final score. |
| SCORE_STEP_ORDER | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. |
| SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded. |
| STARTER_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected. |
| SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays. |
| TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target. |
| TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed. |
| TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | total_runs equals away + home runs. |
| WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | winner field agrees with the final score. |
20260927_PIT@DET
20260927_PIT@DET.json • 2026-09-27
PIT 4 - DET 3
PASSClean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.
CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7
No action required
No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.
Problems table - exact rows
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|
All findings - complete audit trail
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | DET | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | DET pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | PIT | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | PIT pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | DET | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | DET model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=34; 2B: current=1, sim=5; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=9, sim=7; HBP: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | DET | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | DET current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Kevin McGonigle: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Riley Greene: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Eduardo Valencia: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Brett Callahan: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Hao-Yu Lee: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Max Clark: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; John Peck: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Zach McKinstry: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=3, 2B current=0 box=3, RBI current=0 box=2 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | PIT | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | PIT model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=35; 2B: current=1, sim=2; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=12). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | PIT | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | PIT current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ryan O'Hearn: SO current=1 box=0; Konnor Griffin: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Nick Gonzales: RBI current=0 box=1; Jake Mangum: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Jacob Gonzalez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Rafael Flores Jr.: BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Spencer Horwitz: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Bryan Reynolds: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. | |||||
| PASS | batting | current | DET | BATTING_REALISM | current:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | PIT | BATTING_REALISM | current:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | DET | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | PIT | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | DET | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:DET batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | PIT | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | DET | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:DET batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | PIT | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | DET | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:DET batting walks match PIT pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | DET | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:DET batting home runs match PIT pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | DET | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:DET batting hits match PIT pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | DET | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:DET batting strikeouts match PIT pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | DET | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:DET PA=36 matches PIT BF=36. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | DET | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:DET runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PIT | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:PIT batting walks match DET pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PIT | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:PIT batting home runs match DET pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PIT | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:PIT batting hits match DET pitching: 8. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PIT | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:PIT batting strikeouts match DET pitching: 12. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PIT | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:PIT PA=36 matches DET BF=36. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PIT | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:PIT runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.510 -> 0.531 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5101, 'sample_size': 682, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5528, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.53145, 'published_confidence': 0.505, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | DET | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | DET current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | PIT | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | PIT current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | DET | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | DET current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | DET | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | DET current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | DET | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | DET current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | DET | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | DET hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PIT | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | PIT current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PIT | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | PIT current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PIT | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | PIT current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PIT | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | PIT hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.505. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.505. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.495. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.731/0.900. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: PIT 8, DET 7. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: PIT 4 - DET 3. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: PIT. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for PIT; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'PIT', 'opponent_team': 'DET', 'h2h_net_margin': -1, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-26', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'DET'}, {'date': '2026-09-25', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 8, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'DET'}, {'date': '2026-08-19', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'PIT'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 5, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 3, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 3, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260926', 'away': 'PIT', 'home': 'DET', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'PIT', 'actual_winner': 'DET', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5133369999999999, 'artifact': '20260926_PIT@DET.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260925', 'away': 'PIT', 'home': 'DET', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'PIT', 'actual_winner': 'DET', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.505, 'artifact': '20260925_PIT@DET.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260819', 'away': 'DET', 'home': 'PIT', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'PIT', 'actual_winner': 'PIT', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.537802, 'artifact': '20260819_DET@PIT.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260818', 'away': 'DET', 'home': 'PIT', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'DET', 'actual_winner': 'PIT', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260818_DET@PIT.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260817', 'away': 'DET', 'home': 'PIT', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'PIT', 'actual_winner': 'DET', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.536626, 'artifact': '20260817_DET@PIT.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'PIT', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'DET', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'PIT', 'output_opponent_team': 'DET', 'simulation_score_winner': 'PIT', 'final_score_winner': 'PIT', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'PIT', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'PIT 4 - 3 DET', 'winner': 'PIT'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'PIT 4 - 3 DET', 'winner': 'PIT'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0057, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.282, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'PIT', 'model_winner': 'PIT', 'simulation_winner': 'PIT', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'PIT', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'PIT', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.0363, 'winner': 'PIT', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-27. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260927_PIT@DET. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: PIT@DET. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 1.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 1.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.2, 'home_run_delta': 0.0058, 'away_run_delta': -0.0058, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02405097026405226}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.023897852347280348}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.023578437334532815}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02342832774786068}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.021485205496562555}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.07506615141461212, '1': 0.10956165506017164, '2': 0.1400433031503364, '3': 0.15676728436631782, '4': 0.1536872546078035, '5': 0.13195006179445723, '6': 0.0992134772547187, '7': 0.06533126572112263, '8': 0.03767565412301166, '9': 0.019027856091062837, '10': 0.008416048759775268, '11': 0.0032599876566103037}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.07220251971798768, '1': 0.10558485403911724, '2': 0.135740640673266, '3': 0.15341830000609313, '4': 0.15244157889115614, '5': 0.13316457614879956, '6': 0.10226640389069623, '7': 0.06904563988882323, '8': 0.040982508134210394, '9': 0.02138551973061804, '10': 0.009810702031827814, '11': 0.003956756847404638}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.25, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.2453, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.352, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.0363} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'PIT 4 - 3 DET', 'winner': 'PIT'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'PIT 4 - 3 DET', 'winner': 'PIT'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0057, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.282, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'PIT', 'model_winner': 'PIT', 'simulation_winner': 'PIT', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'PIT', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'PIT', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.0363, 'winner': 'PIT', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 142. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 158. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | DET | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | DET pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | DET | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | DET pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 158. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | PIT | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | PIT pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | PIT | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | PIT pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 142. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | DET | PITCHING_REALISM | current:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | DET | STARTER_PRESENT | current:DET includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | PIT | PITCHING_REALISM | current:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | PIT | STARTER_PRESENT | current:PIT includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | DET | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | DET | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:DET includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | PIT | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | PIT | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:PIT includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | DET | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | DET | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | PIT | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | PIT | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | DET | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | DET | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | PIT | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | PIT | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: PIT 4 - 3 DET. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: PIT 4 - 3 DET. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: PIT wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=PIT, simulation=PIT, published=PIT. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.505. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): PIT wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: PIT wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-3, final 4-3 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 7. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: PIT wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | DET | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | DET recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | DET | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | DET wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | PIT | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | PIT recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | PIT | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | PIT wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500. |
Passed checks
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PASS | batting | current | DET | BATTING_REALISM | current:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | PIT | BATTING_REALISM | current:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | DET | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | PIT | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | DET | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:DET batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | PIT | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | DET | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:DET batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | PIT | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | DET | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:DET batting walks match PIT pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | DET | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:DET batting home runs match PIT pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | DET | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:DET batting hits match PIT pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | DET | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:DET batting strikeouts match PIT pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | DET | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:DET PA=36 matches PIT BF=36. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | DET | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:DET runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PIT | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:PIT batting walks match DET pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PIT | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:PIT batting home runs match DET pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PIT | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:PIT batting hits match DET pitching: 8. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PIT | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:PIT batting strikeouts match DET pitching: 12. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PIT | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:PIT PA=36 matches DET BF=36. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PIT | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:PIT runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.510 -> 0.531 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5101, 'sample_size': 682, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5528, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.53145, 'published_confidence': 0.505, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | DET | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | DET current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | PIT | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | PIT current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | DET | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | DET current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | DET | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | DET current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | DET | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | DET current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | DET | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | DET hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PIT | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | PIT current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PIT | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | PIT current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PIT | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | PIT current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PIT | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | PIT hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.505. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.505. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.495. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.731/0.900. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: PIT 8, DET 7. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: PIT 4 - DET 3. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: PIT. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for PIT; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'PIT', 'opponent_team': 'DET', 'h2h_net_margin': -1, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-26', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'DET'}, {'date': '2026-09-25', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 8, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'DET'}, {'date': '2026-08-19', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'PIT'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 5, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 3, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 3, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260926', 'away': 'PIT', 'home': 'DET', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'PIT', 'actual_winner': 'DET', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5133369999999999, 'artifact': '20260926_PIT@DET.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260925', 'away': 'PIT', 'home': 'DET', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'PIT', 'actual_winner': 'DET', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.505, 'artifact': '20260925_PIT@DET.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260819', 'away': 'DET', 'home': 'PIT', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'PIT', 'actual_winner': 'PIT', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.537802, 'artifact': '20260819_DET@PIT.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260818', 'away': 'DET', 'home': 'PIT', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'DET', 'actual_winner': 'PIT', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260818_DET@PIT.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260817', 'away': 'DET', 'home': 'PIT', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'PIT', 'actual_winner': 'DET', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.536626, 'artifact': '20260817_DET@PIT.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'PIT', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'DET', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'PIT', 'output_opponent_team': 'DET', 'simulation_score_winner': 'PIT', 'final_score_winner': 'PIT', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'PIT', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'PIT 4 - 3 DET', 'winner': 'PIT'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'PIT 4 - 3 DET', 'winner': 'PIT'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0057, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.282, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'PIT', 'model_winner': 'PIT', 'simulation_winner': 'PIT', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'PIT', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'PIT', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.0363, 'winner': 'PIT', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-27. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260927_PIT@DET. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: PIT@DET. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 1.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 1.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.2, 'home_run_delta': 0.0058, 'away_run_delta': -0.0058, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02405097026405226}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.023897852347280348}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.023578437334532815}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02342832774786068}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.021485205496562555}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.07506615141461212, '1': 0.10956165506017164, '2': 0.1400433031503364, '3': 0.15676728436631782, '4': 0.1536872546078035, '5': 0.13195006179445723, '6': 0.0992134772547187, '7': 0.06533126572112263, '8': 0.03767565412301166, '9': 0.019027856091062837, '10': 0.008416048759775268, '11': 0.0032599876566103037}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.07220251971798768, '1': 0.10558485403911724, '2': 0.135740640673266, '3': 0.15341830000609313, '4': 0.15244157889115614, '5': 0.13316457614879956, '6': 0.10226640389069623, '7': 0.06904563988882323, '8': 0.040982508134210394, '9': 0.02138551973061804, '10': 0.009810702031827814, '11': 0.003956756847404638}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.25, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.2453, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.352, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.0363} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'PIT 4 - 3 DET', 'winner': 'PIT'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'PIT 4 - 3 DET', 'winner': 'PIT'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0057, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.282, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'PIT', 'model_winner': 'PIT', 'simulation_winner': 'PIT', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'PIT', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'PIT', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.0363, 'winner': 'PIT', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 142. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 158. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | DET | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | DET pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | DET | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | DET pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 158. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | PIT | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | PIT pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | PIT | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | PIT pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 142. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | DET | PITCHING_REALISM | current:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | DET | STARTER_PRESENT | current:DET includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | PIT | PITCHING_REALISM | current:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | PIT | STARTER_PRESENT | current:PIT includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | DET | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | DET | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:DET includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | PIT | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | PIT | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:PIT includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | DET | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | DET | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | PIT | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | PIT | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | DET | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | DET | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | PIT | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | PIT | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: PIT 4 - 3 DET. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: PIT 4 - 3 DET. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: PIT wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=PIT, simulation=PIT, published=PIT. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.505. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): PIT wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: PIT wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-3, final 4-3 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 7. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: PIT wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | DET | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | DET recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | DET | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | DET wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | PIT | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | PIT recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | PIT | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | PIT wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500. |
Info/context findings
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | DET | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | DET pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | PIT | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | PIT pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | DET | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | DET model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=34; 2B: current=1, sim=5; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=9, sim=7; HBP: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | DET | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | DET current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Kevin McGonigle: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Riley Greene: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Eduardo Valencia: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Brett Callahan: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Hao-Yu Lee: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Max Clark: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; John Peck: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Zach McKinstry: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=3, 2B current=0 box=3, RBI current=0 box=2 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | PIT | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | PIT model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=35; 2B: current=1, sim=2; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=12). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | PIT | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | PIT current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ryan O'Hearn: SO current=1 box=0; Konnor Griffin: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Nick Gonzales: RBI current=0 box=1; Jake Mangum: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Jacob Gonzalez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Rafael Flores Jr.: BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Spencer Horwitz: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Bryan Reynolds: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. |
Score evolution
| step | away_runs | home_runs | confidence | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| historical_ml | 4.878962326786094 | 3.9118391936506782 | Base ML historical model prediction | |
| variance_applied | 5 | 4 | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) | |
| enhanced_prediction | 4 | 3 | 0.505 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail) |
| embedded_savant_run_environment | 4 | 3 | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality | |
| fundamental_edge_target_review | 4 | 3 | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments | |
| capped_target | 4 | 3 | Capped at max 12 realistic runs | |
| simulation_result | 4 | 3 | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
Inning-by-inning linescore
| team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8 |
| DET | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
Team totals - current + final simulation
| src | team | type | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | SO | SF | HBP | SB | CS | IP | ER | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | PIT | batting | 33 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | PIT | pitching | 7 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 9.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| current | DET | batting | 32 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | DET | pitching | 8 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 9.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| simulation | PIT | batting | 35 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | PIT | pitching | 7 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 9.0 | 3 | 36 | 142 | |||||||||
| simulation | DET | batting | 34 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1 | |||||||
| simulation | DET | pitching | 8 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 9.0 | 4 | 36 | 158 |
Batting lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | pos | name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | PIT | DH | Ryan O'Hearn | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | PIT | SS | Konnor Griffin | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | PIT | 2B | Nick Gonzales | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | PIT | RF | Jake Mangum | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | PIT | 3B | Jacob Gonzalez | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | PIT | C | Rafael Flores Jr. | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | PIT | 1B | Spencer Horwitz | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | PIT | LF | Bryan Reynolds | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | PIT | CF | Billy Cook | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | DET | 3B | Kevin McGonigle | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | DET | DH | Riley Greene | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | DET | C | Eduardo Valencia | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | DET | LF | Brett Callahan | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | DET | 2B | Hao-Yu Lee | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | DET | CF | Max Clark | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | DET | SS | John Peck | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | DET | RF | Zach McKinstry | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | DET | 1B | Spencer Torkelson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| simulation | PIT | 1 | SS | Konnor Griffin | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | PIT | 2 | DH | Ryan O'Hearn | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | PIT | 3 | LF | Bryan Reynolds | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | PIT | 4 | C | Rafael Flores Jr. | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | PIT | 5 | 1B | Spencer Horwitz | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | PIT | 6 | 2B | Nick Gonzales | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | PIT | 7 | RF | Jake Mangum | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | PIT | 8 | 3B | Jacob Gonzalez | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.750 |
| simulation | PIT | 9 | CF | Billy Cook | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | DET | 1 | CF | Max Clark | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | DET | 2 | 2B | Hao-Yu Lee | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | DET | 3 | 3B | Kevin McGonigle | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | DET | 4 | DH | Riley Greene | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | DET | 5 | C | Eduardo Valencia | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 |
| simulation | DET | 6 | LF | Brett Callahan | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | DET | 7 | 1B | Spencer Torkelson | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | DET | 8 | RF | Zach McKinstry | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 |
| simulation | DET | 9 | SS | John Peck | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | name | role | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | BF | Pitches | sim_ERA | season_ERA | season_WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | PIT | 1 | Jared Jones | Starter | 5.2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.59 | 3.87 | 1.12 |
| current | PIT | 2 | Gregory Soto | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.00 | 3.22 | 1.10 |
| current | PIT | 3 | Luke Weaver | Setup Man | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.69 | 0.96 |
| current | PIT | 4 | Mason Montgomery | Closer | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.00 | 2.66 | 1.02 |
| current | DET | 1 | River Ryan | Starter | 3.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| current | DET | 3 | Drew Sommers | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.95 | 1.11 |
| current | DET | 4 | Kenley Jansen | Closer | 2.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.00 | 2.80 | 1.00 |
| current | DET | 5 | Tyler Holton | Setup Man | 2.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4.50 | 2.75 | 1.25 |
| simulation | PIT | 1 | Jared Jones | Starter | 5.2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 22 | 87 | 1.59 | 3.87 | 1.12 |
| simulation | PIT | 2 | Mason Montgomery | Closer | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 9.00 | 2.66 | 1.02 |
| simulation | PIT | 3 | Luke Weaver | Setup Man | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 0.00 | 2.69 | 0.96 |
| simulation | PIT | 4 | Gregory Soto | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 9.00 | 3.22 | 1.10 |
| simulation | DET | 1 | River Ryan | Starter | 3.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 13 | 63 | 3.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| simulation | DET | 2 | Kenley Jansen | Closer | 2.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 34 | 9.00 | 2.80 | 1.00 |
| simulation | DET | 3 | Tyler Holton | Setup Man | 2.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 28 | 4.50 | 2.75 | 1.25 |
| simulation | DET | 4 | Drew Sommers | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 33 | 0.00 | 2.95 | 1.11 |
Pitch count summary
| team | pitcher | role | IP | R | H | BB | SO | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | Jared Jones | Starter | 5.2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 22 | 87 |
| PIT | Gregory Soto | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 19 |
| PIT | Luke Weaver | Setup Man | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 17 |
| PIT | Mason Montgomery | Closer | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 19 |
| DET | River Ryan | Starter | 3.0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 63 |
| DET | Drew Sommers | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 2.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 33 |
| DET | Kenley Jansen | Closer | 2.0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 34 |
| DET | Tyler Holton | Setup Man | 2.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 28 |
Audit rule catalog
| rule | status | critical | error | warning | pass | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATTING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints. |
| BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines. |
| BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts. |
| CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate. |
| CONFIDENCE_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | Confidence values are between 0 and 1. |
| CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup. |
| CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions. |
| CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance has usable player names. |
| CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled. |
| CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. |
| CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs. |
| DATE_PARSE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Game date can be parsed as an ISO date. |
| FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename and game_id identify the same game. |
| FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON. |
| FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner. |
| GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game_summary text agrees with final score. |
| GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner. |
| H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode. |
| INNINGS_COUNT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning count is valid for MLB. |
| INNING_OUTS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Each played half inning has valid outs. |
| INNING_PLAY_SUMS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches. |
| INNING_SEQUENCE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Innings are sequential and unique. |
| INNING_TOTAL_HITS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning hits sum to batting team hits. |
| INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning runs sum to final score. |
| LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent. |
| MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence. |
| OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards. |
| PA_BF_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced. |
| PIPELINE_VERSION | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them. |
| PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced. |
| PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds. |
| PITCHING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints. |
| PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines. |
| PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score. |
| PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals. |
| PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values. |
| PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result. |
| RECENT_FORM_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges. |
| RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score. |
| REPORT_COMPLETE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table. |
| REPORT_CSV_EXPORT | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows. |
| RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting/pitching runs agree with final score. |
| SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited. |
| SCORE_NO_TIE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final MLB score has a clear winner. |
| SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | score_evolution simulation_result matches final score. |
| SCORE_STEP_ORDER | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. |
| SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded. |
| STARTER_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected. |
| SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays. |
| TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target. |
| TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed. |
| TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | total_runs equals away + home runs. |
| WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | winner field agrees with the final score. |
20260927_STL@MIL
20260927_STL@MIL.json • 2026-09-27
STL 2 - MIL 5
PASSClean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.
CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 102INFO 7
No action required
No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.
Problems table - exact rows
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|
All findings - complete audit trail
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | MIL | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | MIL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | STL | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | STL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | MIL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | MIL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=9; RBI: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=4, sim=6; SO: current=8, sim=3; SF: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | MIL | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | MIL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jackson Chourio: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Brice Turang: AB current=4 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0, SF current=0 box=1; Jake Bauers: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Garrett Mitchell: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Gary Sánchez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Christian Yelich: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Sal Frelick: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Cooper Pratt: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | STL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | STL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=30; H: current=6, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=2; R: current=3, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=0; SO: current=11, sim=6; HBP: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | STL | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | STL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Leonardo Bernal: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Nolan Gorman: AB current=3 box=4, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=2 box=3; Jordan Walker: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Iván Herrera: 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; César Prieto: H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Thomas Saggese: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Pedro Pagés: SO current=1 box=0; José Fermín: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. | |||||
| PASS | batting | current | MIL | BATTING_REALISM | current:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | STL | BATTING_REALISM | current:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | MIL | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | STL | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | MIL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | STL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:STL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | MIL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | STL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:STL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIL | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:MIL batting walks match STL pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIL | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:MIL batting home runs match STL pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIL | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:MIL batting hits match STL pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIL | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:MIL batting strikeouts match STL pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIL | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:MIL PA=39 matches STL BF=39. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIL | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:MIL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | STL | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:STL batting walks match MIL pitching: 0. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | STL | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:STL batting home runs match MIL pitching: 0. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | STL | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:STL batting hits match MIL pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | STL | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:STL batting strikeouts match MIL pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | STL | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:STL PA=31 matches MIL BF=31. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | STL | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:STL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.695 -> 0.679 at weight 0.160. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.695017, 'sample_size': 32, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5938, 'empirical_weight': 0.16, 'blended_confidence': 0.678822, 'published_confidence': 0.58, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | MIL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | MIL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | STL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | STL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIL | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | MIL current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIL | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | MIL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIL | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | MIL current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIL | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | MIL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | STL | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | STL current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | STL | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | STL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | STL | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | STL current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | STL | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | STL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.420. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.580. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.580. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.775/0.900. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_OUTS | Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: STL 3, MIL 9. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: STL 2 - MIL 5. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIL. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for MIL; cap=0.58, reasons=local prediction memory shows 5 straight prior same-side picks. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 5 straight prior same-side picks'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'opponent_team': 'STL', 'h2h_net_margin': 9, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-26', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'MIL'}, {'date': '2026-09-25', 'predicted_team_runs': 8, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'MIL'}, {'date': '2026-07-09', 'predicted_team_runs': 8, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'MIL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 5, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 5, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260926', 'away': 'STL', 'home': 'MIL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.535444, 'artifact': '20260926_STL@MIL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260925', 'away': 'STL', 'home': 'MIL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.542272, 'artifact': '20260925_STL@MIL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260709', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'STL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260709_MIL@STL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260707', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'STL', 'game_number': 2, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 8, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260707_MIL@STL_2.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260706', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'STL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260706_MIL@STL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'MIL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'STL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'output_opponent_team': 'STL', 'simulation_score_winner': 'MIL', 'final_score_winner': 'MIL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'STL 2 - 5 MIL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'STL 2 - 5 MIL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.101, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 1.266, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'MIL', 'model_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 1, 'published_winner': 'MIL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'MIL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 3, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.4859, 'winner': 'MIL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-27. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260927_STL@MIL. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: STL@MIL. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 13.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 13.0, 'home_average_margin': 2.6, 'home_run_delta': 0.075, 'away_run_delta': -0.075, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 8.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.021347785654581994}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.020843473060130405}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02010840621502644}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.019913590724914908}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.019633372285387474}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.04484175309924769, '1': 0.06674355737295948, '2': 0.09047948355326808, '3': 0.1117132973752181, '4': 0.12562429103984565, '5': 0.12866379947290185, '6': 0.12001985991769407, '7': 0.10196798898667615, '8': 0.07890210470861884, '9': 0.05560672494227559, '10': 0.03569275259229313, '11': 0.020866363141362285, '12': 0.01111034323754492, '13': 0.005387932993979631, '14': 0.0023797475661146103}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.08363770210059782, '1': 0.12137713124659834, '2': 0.15251117197511788, '3': 0.16591912987209814, '4': 0.15628643252728996, '5': 0.12746064374460656, '6': 0.09000382169227758, '7': 0.0550269962839143, '8': 0.02912867142380787, '9': 0.01335043939656316, '10': 0.005297859737128257}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.25, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 1.7174, 'recent_quality_edge': 1.056, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 1.4859} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'STL 2 - 5 MIL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'STL 2 - 5 MIL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.101, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 1.266, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'MIL', 'model_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 1, 'published_winner': 'MIL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'MIL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 3, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.4859, 'winner': 'MIL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 162. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 119. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | MIL | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | MIL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | MIL | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | MIL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 119. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | STL | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | STL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | STL | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | STL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 162. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | MIL | PITCHING_REALISM | current:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | MIL | STARTER_PRESENT | current:MIL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | STL | PITCHING_REALISM | current:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | STL | STARTER_PRESENT | current:STL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | MIL | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | MIL | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:MIL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | STL | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | STL | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:STL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | MIL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | MIL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | STL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | STL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | MIL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | MIL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | STL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | STL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: STL 2 - 5 MIL. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: STL 2 - 5 MIL. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIL wins 5-2. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=MIL, simulation=MIL, published=MIL. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.580. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 2/10 (0.200). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): MIL wins 5-2. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: MIL wins 2-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 2-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 2-5, final 2-5 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 7. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: MIL wins 5-2. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | MIL | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | MIL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | MIL | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | MIL wins and win_pct agree: 8/10 = 0.800. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | STL | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | STL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | STL | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | STL wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. |
Passed checks
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PASS | batting | current | MIL | BATTING_REALISM | current:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | STL | BATTING_REALISM | current:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | MIL | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | STL | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | MIL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | STL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:STL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | MIL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | STL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:STL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIL | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:MIL batting walks match STL pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIL | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:MIL batting home runs match STL pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIL | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:MIL batting hits match STL pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIL | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:MIL batting strikeouts match STL pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIL | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:MIL PA=39 matches STL BF=39. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIL | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:MIL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | STL | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:STL batting walks match MIL pitching: 0. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | STL | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:STL batting home runs match MIL pitching: 0. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | STL | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:STL batting hits match MIL pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | STL | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:STL batting strikeouts match MIL pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | STL | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:STL PA=31 matches MIL BF=31. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | STL | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:STL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.695 -> 0.679 at weight 0.160. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.695017, 'sample_size': 32, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5938, 'empirical_weight': 0.16, 'blended_confidence': 0.678822, 'published_confidence': 0.58, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | MIL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | MIL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | STL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | STL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIL | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | MIL current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIL | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | MIL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIL | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | MIL current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIL | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | MIL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | STL | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | STL current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | STL | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | STL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | STL | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | STL current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | STL | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | STL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.420. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.580. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.580. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.775/0.900. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_OUTS | Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: STL 3, MIL 9. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: STL 2 - MIL 5. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIL. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for MIL; cap=0.58, reasons=local prediction memory shows 5 straight prior same-side picks. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 5 straight prior same-side picks'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'opponent_team': 'STL', 'h2h_net_margin': 9, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-26', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'MIL'}, {'date': '2026-09-25', 'predicted_team_runs': 8, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'MIL'}, {'date': '2026-07-09', 'predicted_team_runs': 8, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'MIL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 5, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 5, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260926', 'away': 'STL', 'home': 'MIL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.535444, 'artifact': '20260926_STL@MIL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260925', 'away': 'STL', 'home': 'MIL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.542272, 'artifact': '20260925_STL@MIL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260709', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'STL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260709_MIL@STL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260707', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'STL', 'game_number': 2, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 8, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260707_MIL@STL_2.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260706', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'STL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260706_MIL@STL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'MIL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'STL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'output_opponent_team': 'STL', 'simulation_score_winner': 'MIL', 'final_score_winner': 'MIL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'STL 2 - 5 MIL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'STL 2 - 5 MIL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.101, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 1.266, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'MIL', 'model_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 1, 'published_winner': 'MIL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'MIL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 3, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.4859, 'winner': 'MIL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-27. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260927_STL@MIL. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: STL@MIL. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 13.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 13.0, 'home_average_margin': 2.6, 'home_run_delta': 0.075, 'away_run_delta': -0.075, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 8.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.021347785654581994}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.020843473060130405}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02010840621502644}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.019913590724914908}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.019633372285387474}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.04484175309924769, '1': 0.06674355737295948, '2': 0.09047948355326808, '3': 0.1117132973752181, '4': 0.12562429103984565, '5': 0.12866379947290185, '6': 0.12001985991769407, '7': 0.10196798898667615, '8': 0.07890210470861884, '9': 0.05560672494227559, '10': 0.03569275259229313, '11': 0.020866363141362285, '12': 0.01111034323754492, '13': 0.005387932993979631, '14': 0.0023797475661146103}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.08363770210059782, '1': 0.12137713124659834, '2': 0.15251117197511788, '3': 0.16591912987209814, '4': 0.15628643252728996, '5': 0.12746064374460656, '6': 0.09000382169227758, '7': 0.0550269962839143, '8': 0.02912867142380787, '9': 0.01335043939656316, '10': 0.005297859737128257}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.25, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 1.7174, 'recent_quality_edge': 1.056, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 1.4859} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'STL 2 - 5 MIL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'STL 2 - 5 MIL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.101, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 1.266, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'MIL', 'model_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 1, 'published_winner': 'MIL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'MIL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 3, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.4859, 'winner': 'MIL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 162. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 119. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | MIL | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | MIL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | MIL | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | MIL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 119. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | STL | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | STL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | STL | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | STL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 162. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | MIL | PITCHING_REALISM | current:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | MIL | STARTER_PRESENT | current:MIL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | STL | PITCHING_REALISM | current:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | STL | STARTER_PRESENT | current:STL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | MIL | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | MIL | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:MIL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | STL | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | STL | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:STL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | MIL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | MIL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | STL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | STL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | MIL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | MIL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | STL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | STL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: STL 2 - 5 MIL. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: STL 2 - 5 MIL. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIL wins 5-2. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=MIL, simulation=MIL, published=MIL. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.580. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 2/10 (0.200). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): MIL wins 5-2. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: MIL wins 2-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 2-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 2-5, final 2-5 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 7. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: MIL wins 5-2. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | MIL | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | MIL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | MIL | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | MIL wins and win_pct agree: 8/10 = 0.800. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | STL | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | STL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | STL | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | STL wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. |
Info/context findings
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | MIL | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | MIL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | STL | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | STL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | MIL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | MIL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=9; RBI: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=4, sim=6; SO: current=8, sim=3; SF: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | MIL | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | MIL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jackson Chourio: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Brice Turang: AB current=4 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0, SF current=0 box=1; Jake Bauers: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Garrett Mitchell: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Gary Sánchez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Christian Yelich: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Sal Frelick: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Cooper Pratt: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | STL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | STL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=30; H: current=6, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=2; R: current=3, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=0; SO: current=11, sim=6; HBP: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | STL | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | STL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Leonardo Bernal: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Nolan Gorman: AB current=3 box=4, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=2 box=3; Jordan Walker: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Iván Herrera: 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; César Prieto: H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Thomas Saggese: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Pedro Pagés: SO current=1 box=0; José Fermín: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. |
Score evolution
| step | away_runs | home_runs | confidence | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| historical_ml | 3.6379907880080773 | 6.473384383220621 | Base ML historical model prediction | |
| variance_applied | 4 | 6 | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) | |
| enhanced_prediction | 3 | 5 | 0.580 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail) |
| embedded_savant_run_environment | 2 | 5 | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality | |
| fundamental_edge_target_review | 2 | 5 | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments | |
| capped_target | 2 | 5 | Capped at max 12 realistic runs | |
| simulation_result | 2 | 5 | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
Inning-by-inning linescore
| team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| MIL | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
Team totals - current + final simulation
| src | team | type | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | SO | SF | HBP | SB | CS | IP | ER | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | STL | batting | 32 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | STL | pitching | 9 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 8.0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| current | MIL | batting | 32 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | MIL | pitching | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 9.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| simulation | STL | batting | 30 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | |||||||
| simulation | STL | pitching | 9 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 8.0 | 5 | 39 | 162 | |||||||||
| simulation | MIL | batting | 32 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | MIL | pitching | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 9.0 | 2 | 31 | 119 |
Batting lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | pos | name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | STL | 1B | Leonardo Bernal | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | STL | 3B | Nolan Gorman | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | STL | RF | Jordan Walker | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | STL | DH | Iván Herrera | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | STL | 2B | César Prieto | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | STL | SS | Thomas Saggese | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | STL | C | Pedro Pagés | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | STL | LF | José Fermín | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | STL | CF | Nathan Church | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | MIL | LF | Jackson Chourio | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIL | 2B | Brice Turang | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIL | 1B | Jake Bauers | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIL | CF | Garrett Mitchell | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIL | C | Gary Sánchez | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | MIL | DH | Christian Yelich | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIL | RF | Sal Frelick | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | MIL | SS | Cooper Pratt | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | MIL | 3B | David Hamilton | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| simulation | STL | 1 | RF | Jordan Walker | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | STL | 2 | DH | Iván Herrera | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | STL | 3 | 1B | Leonardo Bernal | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | STL | 4 | 3B | Nolan Gorman | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | STL | 5 | SS | Thomas Saggese | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | STL | 6 | CF | Nathan Church | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | STL | 7 | LF | José Fermín | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 |
| simulation | STL | 8 | 2B | César Prieto | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | STL | 9 | C | Pedro Pagés | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | MIL | 1 | CF | Garrett Mitchell | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.400 |
| simulation | MIL | 2 | 1B | Jake Bauers | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | MIL | 3 | LF | Jackson Chourio | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | MIL | 4 | 2B | Brice Turang | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | MIL | 5 | C | Gary Sánchez | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | MIL | 6 | DH | Christian Yelich | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | MIL | 7 | SS | Cooper Pratt | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | MIL | 8 | RF | Sal Frelick | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 |
| simulation | MIL | 9 | 3B | David Hamilton | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 |
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | name | role | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | BF | Pitches | sim_ERA | season_ERA | season_WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | STL | 1 | Andre Pallante | Starter | 5.1 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.75 | 3.61 | 1.24 |
| current | STL | 2 | Riley O'Brien | Closer | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 4.08 | 1.28 |
| current | STL | 3 | Ryne Stanek | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.88 | 1.31 |
| current | STL | 4 | Justin Bruihl | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13.50 | 3.69 | 1.33 |
| current | MIL | 1 | Jacob Misiorowski | Starter | 6.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.00 | 1.86 | 0.80 |
| current | MIL | 2 | Aaron Ashby | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.12 | 1.31 |
| current | MIL | 3 | Abner Uribe | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.97 | 1.03 |
| current | MIL | 4 | Trevor Megill | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.04 | 0.86 |
| simulation | STL | 1 | Andre Pallante | Starter | 5.1 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 27 | 115 | 6.75 | 3.61 | 1.24 |
| simulation | STL | 2 | Riley O'Brien | Closer | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 0.00 | 4.08 | 1.28 |
| simulation | STL | 3 | Ryne Stanek | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 0.00 | 3.88 | 1.31 |
| simulation | STL | 4 | Justin Bruihl | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 13.50 | 3.69 | 1.33 |
| simulation | MIL | 1 | Jacob Misiorowski | Starter | 6.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 21 | 82 | 3.00 | 1.86 | 0.80 |
| simulation | MIL | 2 | Trevor Megill | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 2.04 | 0.86 |
| simulation | MIL | 3 | Abner Uribe | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 1.97 | 1.03 |
| simulation | MIL | 4 | Aaron Ashby | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 0.00 | 3.12 | 1.31 |
Pitch count summary
| team | pitcher | role | IP | R | H | BB | SO | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | Andre Pallante | Starter | 5.1 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 27 | 115 |
| STL | Riley O'Brien | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 20 |
| STL | Ryne Stanek | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| STL | Justin Bruihl | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 |
| MIL | Jacob Misiorowski | Starter | 6.0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 21 | 82 |
| MIL | Aaron Ashby | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 11 |
| MIL | Abner Uribe | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
| MIL | Trevor Megill | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
Audit rule catalog
| rule | status | critical | error | warning | pass | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATTING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints. |
| BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines. |
| BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts. |
| CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate. |
| CONFIDENCE_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | Confidence values are between 0 and 1. |
| CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup. |
| CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions. |
| CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance has usable player names. |
| CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled. |
| CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. |
| CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs. |
| DATE_PARSE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Game date can be parsed as an ISO date. |
| FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename and game_id identify the same game. |
| FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON. |
| FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner. |
| GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game_summary text agrees with final score. |
| GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner. |
| H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode. |
| INNINGS_COUNT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning count is valid for MLB. |
| INNING_OUTS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Each played half inning has valid outs. |
| INNING_PLAY_SUMS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches. |
| INNING_SEQUENCE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Innings are sequential and unique. |
| INNING_TOTAL_HITS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning hits sum to batting team hits. |
| INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning runs sum to final score. |
| LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent. |
| MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence. |
| OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards. |
| PA_BF_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced. |
| PIPELINE_VERSION | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them. |
| PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced. |
| PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds. |
| PITCHING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints. |
| PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines. |
| PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score. |
| PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals. |
| PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values. |
| PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result. |
| RECENT_FORM_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges. |
| RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score. |
| REPORT_COMPLETE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table. |
| REPORT_CSV_EXPORT | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows. |
| RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting/pitching runs agree with final score. |
| SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited. |
| SCORE_NO_TIE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final MLB score has a clear winner. |
| SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | score_evolution simulation_result matches final score. |
| SCORE_STEP_ORDER | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. |
| SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded. |
| STARTER_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected. |
| SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays. |
| TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target. |
| TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed. |
| TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | total_runs equals away + home runs. |
| WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | winner field agrees with the final score. |
20260927_TB@PHI
20260927_TB@PHI.json • 2026-09-27
TB 4 - PHI 3
PASSClean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.
CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7
No action required
No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.
Problems table - exact rows
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|
All findings - complete audit trail
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | PHI | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | PHI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | TB | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | TB pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | PHI | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | PHI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=36; H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=1, sim=4; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=2, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | PHI | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | PHI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryce Harper: H current=1 box=3, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Alec Bohm: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Bryson Stott: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Edmundo Sosa: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Trea Turner: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Kyle Schwarber: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Brandon Marsh: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Justin Crawford: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | TB | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | TB model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=31; H: current=7, sim=4; 2B: current=1, sim=0; 3B: current=0, sim=1; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=9, sim=3). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | TB | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | TB current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Victor Mesa Jr.: 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Liam Hicks: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=0 box=1; Jonathan Aranda: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Junior Caminero: HR current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jonny DeLuca: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Richie Palacios: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Cedric Mullins: SO current=1 box=0; Nick Fortes: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. | |||||
| PASS | batting | current | PHI | BATTING_REALISM | current:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | TB | BATTING_REALISM | current:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | PHI | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | TB | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | PHI | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | TB | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TB batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | PHI | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | TB | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TB batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PHI | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:PHI batting walks match TB pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PHI | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:PHI batting home runs match TB pitching: 0. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PHI | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:PHI batting hits match TB pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PHI | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:PHI batting strikeouts match TB pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PHI | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:PHI PA=37 matches TB BF=37. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PHI | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:PHI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TB | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:TB batting walks match PHI pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TB | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:TB batting home runs match PHI pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TB | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:TB batting hits match PHI pitching: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TB | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:TB batting strikeouts match PHI pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TB | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:TB PA=33 matches PHI BF=33. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TB | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:TB runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.672 -> 0.607 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.6725, 'sample_size': 543, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5414, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.60695, 'published_confidence': 0.57564, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | PHI | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | PHI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | TB | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | TB current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PHI | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | PHI current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PHI | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | PHI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PHI | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | PHI current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PHI | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | PHI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TB | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | TB current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TB | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | TB current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TB | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | TB current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TB | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | TB hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.576. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.576. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.424. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.554/0.749. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: TB 4, PHI 9. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: TB 4 - PHI 3. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: TB. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for TB. | {'winner_confidence': 0.5756397999999999, 'h2h_net_margin': 13, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260926', 'away': 'TB', 'home': 'PHI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TB', 'actual_winner': 'TB', 'actual_margin': 11, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.607565, 'artifact': '20260926_TB@PHI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260925', 'away': 'TB', 'home': 'PHI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'actual_winner': 'TB', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.534728, 'artifact': '20260925_TB@PHI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-27. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260927_TB@PHI. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: TB@PHI. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 2, 'sample_weight': 0.03, 'home_net_margin': -13.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 13.0, 'home_average_margin': -6.5, 'home_run_delta': -0.0975, 'away_run_delta': 0.0975, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -11.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.025365239235151067}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.024943204634170997}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.02428334636890916}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.02387931263202009}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02377219844662334}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.10279845946480115, '1': 0.14718371643031197, '2': 0.17759866649108444, '3': 0.1806036044469907, '4': 0.15478180397782057, '5': 0.1117944315011993, '6': 0.06804985700057954, '7': 0.034909291875046045, '8': 0.015092515799099947, '9': 0.005499067065495297, '10': 0.001688585947571054}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.05652412162212097, '1': 0.08350328674181175, '2': 0.11068105080159191, '3': 0.13162637877252756, '4': 0.14044702658520897, '5': 0.13445659871111051, '6': 0.11549193257951397, '7': 0.08900637883446061, '8': 0.06154468768748724, '9': 0.03818211382074279, '10': 0.02125344422791468, '11': 0.010614477663414796, '12': 0.0047562852330908624, '13': 0.0019122167190034605}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.25, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.5932, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.7, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.6306} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'TB 4 - 3 PHI', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'TB 4 - 3 PHI', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0024, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -1.05, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'TB', 'model_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 4, 'published_winner': 'TB', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.25, 'draw_majority_team': 'PHI', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.6306, 'winner': 'TB', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 137. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 129. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | PHI | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | PHI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | PHI | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | PHI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 129. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | TB | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | TB pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | TB | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | TB pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 137. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | PHI | PITCHING_REALISM | current:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | PHI | STARTER_PRESENT | current:PHI includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | TB | PITCHING_REALISM | current:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | TB | STARTER_PRESENT | current:TB includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | PHI | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | PHI | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:PHI includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | TB | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | TB | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:TB includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | PHI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | PHI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | TB | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | TB | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | PHI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | PHI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | TB | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | TB | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TB 4 - 3 PHI. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: TB 4 - 3 PHI. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: TB wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=TB, simulation=TB, published=TB. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.576. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): TB wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: TB wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-3, final 4-3 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 7. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: TB wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | PHI | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | PHI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | PHI | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | PHI wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | TB | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | TB recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | TB | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | TB wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600. |
Passed checks
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PASS | batting | current | PHI | BATTING_REALISM | current:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | TB | BATTING_REALISM | current:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | PHI | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | TB | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | PHI | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | TB | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TB batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | PHI | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | TB | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TB batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PHI | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:PHI batting walks match TB pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PHI | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:PHI batting home runs match TB pitching: 0. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PHI | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:PHI batting hits match TB pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PHI | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:PHI batting strikeouts match TB pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PHI | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:PHI PA=37 matches TB BF=37. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PHI | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:PHI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TB | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:TB batting walks match PHI pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TB | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:TB batting home runs match PHI pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TB | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:TB batting hits match PHI pitching: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TB | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:TB batting strikeouts match PHI pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TB | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:TB PA=33 matches PHI BF=33. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TB | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:TB runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.672 -> 0.607 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.6725, 'sample_size': 543, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5414, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.60695, 'published_confidence': 0.57564, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | PHI | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | PHI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | TB | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | TB current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PHI | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | PHI current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PHI | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | PHI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PHI | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | PHI current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PHI | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | PHI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TB | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | TB current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TB | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | TB current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TB | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | TB current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TB | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | TB hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.576. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.576. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.424. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.554/0.749. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: TB 4, PHI 9. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: TB 4 - PHI 3. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: TB. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for TB. | {'winner_confidence': 0.5756397999999999, 'h2h_net_margin': 13, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260926', 'away': 'TB', 'home': 'PHI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TB', 'actual_winner': 'TB', 'actual_margin': 11, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.607565, 'artifact': '20260926_TB@PHI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260925', 'away': 'TB', 'home': 'PHI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'actual_winner': 'TB', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.534728, 'artifact': '20260925_TB@PHI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-27. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260927_TB@PHI. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: TB@PHI. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 2, 'sample_weight': 0.03, 'home_net_margin': -13.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 13.0, 'home_average_margin': -6.5, 'home_run_delta': -0.0975, 'away_run_delta': 0.0975, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -11.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.025365239235151067}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.024943204634170997}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.02428334636890916}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.02387931263202009}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02377219844662334}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.10279845946480115, '1': 0.14718371643031197, '2': 0.17759866649108444, '3': 0.1806036044469907, '4': 0.15478180397782057, '5': 0.1117944315011993, '6': 0.06804985700057954, '7': 0.034909291875046045, '8': 0.015092515799099947, '9': 0.005499067065495297, '10': 0.001688585947571054}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.05652412162212097, '1': 0.08350328674181175, '2': 0.11068105080159191, '3': 0.13162637877252756, '4': 0.14044702658520897, '5': 0.13445659871111051, '6': 0.11549193257951397, '7': 0.08900637883446061, '8': 0.06154468768748724, '9': 0.03818211382074279, '10': 0.02125344422791468, '11': 0.010614477663414796, '12': 0.0047562852330908624, '13': 0.0019122167190034605}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.25, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.5932, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.7, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.6306} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'TB 4 - 3 PHI', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'TB 4 - 3 PHI', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0024, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -1.05, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'TB', 'model_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 4, 'published_winner': 'TB', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.25, 'draw_majority_team': 'PHI', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.6306, 'winner': 'TB', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 137. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 129. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | PHI | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | PHI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | PHI | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | PHI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 129. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | TB | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | TB pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | TB | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | TB pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 137. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | PHI | PITCHING_REALISM | current:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | PHI | STARTER_PRESENT | current:PHI includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | TB | PITCHING_REALISM | current:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | TB | STARTER_PRESENT | current:TB includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | PHI | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | PHI | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:PHI includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | TB | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | TB | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:TB includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | PHI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | PHI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | TB | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | TB | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | PHI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | PHI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | TB | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | TB | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TB 4 - 3 PHI. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: TB 4 - 3 PHI. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: TB wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=TB, simulation=TB, published=TB. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.576. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): TB wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: TB wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-3, final 4-3 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 7. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: TB wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | PHI | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | PHI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | PHI | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | PHI wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | TB | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | TB recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | TB | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | TB wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600. |
Info/context findings
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | PHI | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | PHI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | TB | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | TB pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | PHI | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | PHI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=36; H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=1, sim=4; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=2, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | PHI | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | PHI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryce Harper: H current=1 box=3, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Alec Bohm: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Bryson Stott: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Edmundo Sosa: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Trea Turner: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Kyle Schwarber: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Brandon Marsh: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Justin Crawford: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | TB | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | TB model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=31; H: current=7, sim=4; 2B: current=1, sim=0; 3B: current=0, sim=1; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=9, sim=3). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | TB | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | TB current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Victor Mesa Jr.: 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Liam Hicks: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=0 box=1; Jonathan Aranda: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Junior Caminero: HR current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jonny DeLuca: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Richie Palacios: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Cedric Mullins: SO current=1 box=0; Nick Fortes: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. |
Score evolution
| step | away_runs | home_runs | confidence | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| historical_ml | 4.030207947715104 | 5.3853853934747935 | Base ML historical model prediction | |
| variance_applied | 4 | 5 | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) | |
| enhanced_prediction | 4 | 3 | 0.576 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run) |
| embedded_savant_run_environment | 3 | 3 | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality | |
| fundamental_edge_target_review | 4 | 3 | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments | |
| capped_target | 4 | 3 | Capped at max 12 realistic runs | |
| simulation_result | 4 | 3 | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
Inning-by-inning linescore
| team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| PHI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
Team totals - current + final simulation
| src | team | type | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | SO | SF | HBP | SB | CS | IP | ER | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | TB | batting | 32 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | TB | pitching | 9 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 9.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| current | PHI | batting | 32 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | PHI | pitching | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 9.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| simulation | TB | batting | 31 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | TB | pitching | 9 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 9.0 | 3 | 37 | 137 | |||||||||
| simulation | PHI | batting | 36 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | PHI | pitching | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 9.0 | 4 | 33 | 129 |
Batting lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | pos | name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | TB | LF | Victor Mesa Jr. | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TB | DH | Liam Hicks | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TB | 1B | Jonathan Aranda | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TB | 3B | Junior Caminero | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TB | RF | Jonny DeLuca | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TB | 2B | Richie Palacios | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | TB | CF | Cedric Mullins | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | TB | C | Nick Fortes | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | TB | SS | Jorge Mateo | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | PHI | RF | Bryce Harper | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | PHI | 1B | Alec Bohm | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | PHI | 2B | Bryson Stott | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | PHI | 3B | Edmundo Sosa | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | PHI | SS | Trea Turner | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | PHI | DH | Kyle Schwarber | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | PHI | LF | Brandon Marsh | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | PHI | CF | Justin Crawford | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | PHI | C | J.T. Realmuto | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| simulation | TB | 1 | LF | Victor Mesa Jr. | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | TB | 2 | 1B | Jonathan Aranda | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | TB | 3 | 3B | Junior Caminero | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | TB | 4 | DH | Liam Hicks | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | TB | 5 | 2B | Richie Palacios | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | TB | 6 | RF | Jonny DeLuca | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | TB | 7 | CF | Cedric Mullins | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | TB | 8 | C | Nick Fortes | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | TB | 9 | SS | Jorge Mateo | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | PHI | 1 | SS | Trea Turner | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 |
| simulation | PHI | 2 | DH | Kyle Schwarber | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | PHI | 3 | RF | Bryce Harper | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.750 |
| simulation | PHI | 4 | 2B | Bryson Stott | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | PHI | 5 | 1B | Alec Bohm | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 |
| simulation | PHI | 6 | LF | Brandon Marsh | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | PHI | 7 | 3B | Edmundo Sosa | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | PHI | 8 | CF | Justin Crawford | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | PHI | 9 | C | J.T. Realmuto | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | name | role | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | BF | Pitches | sim_ERA | season_ERA | season_WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | TB | 1 | Nick Martinez | Starter | 6.0 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.50 | 2.94 | 1.07 |
| current | TB | 2 | Bryan Baker | Closer | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.30 | 0.87 |
| current | TB | 3 | Cam Booser | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.98 | 0.76 |
| current | TB | 4 | Kevin Kelly | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.44 | 0.90 |
| current | PHI | 1 | Zack Wheeler | Starter | 6.0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.50 | 3.06 | 1.06 |
| current | PHI | 2 | Jhoan Duran | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.54 | 0.96 |
| current | PHI | 3 | Jonathan Bowlan | Setup Man | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.36 | 1.03 |
| current | PHI | 4 | Brooks Raley | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13.50 | 2.91 | 1.20 |
| simulation | TB | 1 | Nick Martinez | Starter | 6.0 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 26 | 100 | 4.50 | 2.94 | 1.07 |
| simulation | TB | 2 | Bryan Baker | Closer | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 0.00 | 1.30 | 0.87 |
| simulation | TB | 3 | Kevin Kelly | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 2.44 | 0.90 |
| simulation | TB | 4 | Cam Booser | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 0.00 | 1.98 | 0.76 |
| simulation | PHI | 1 | Zack Wheeler | Starter | 6.0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 23 | 93 | 4.50 | 3.06 | 1.06 |
| simulation | PHI | 2 | Jhoan Duran | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 1.54 | 0.96 |
| simulation | PHI | 3 | Jonathan Bowlan | Setup Man | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 0.00 | 3.36 | 1.03 |
| simulation | PHI | 4 | Brooks Raley | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 13.50 | 2.91 | 1.20 |
Pitch count summary
| team | pitcher | role | IP | R | H | BB | SO | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | Nick Martinez | Starter | 6.0 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 100 |
| TB | Bryan Baker | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| TB | Cam Booser | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8 |
| TB | Kevin Kelly | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
| PHI | Zack Wheeler | Starter | 6.0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 23 | 93 |
| PHI | Jhoan Duran | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
| PHI | Jonathan Bowlan | Setup Man | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 12 |
| PHI | Brooks Raley | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 |
Audit rule catalog
| rule | status | critical | error | warning | pass | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATTING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints. |
| BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines. |
| BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts. |
| CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate. |
| CONFIDENCE_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | Confidence values are between 0 and 1. |
| CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup. |
| CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions. |
| CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance has usable player names. |
| CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled. |
| CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. |
| CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs. |
| DATE_PARSE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Game date can be parsed as an ISO date. |
| FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename and game_id identify the same game. |
| FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON. |
| FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner. |
| GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game_summary text agrees with final score. |
| GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner. |
| H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode. |
| INNINGS_COUNT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning count is valid for MLB. |
| INNING_OUTS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Each played half inning has valid outs. |
| INNING_PLAY_SUMS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches. |
| INNING_SEQUENCE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Innings are sequential and unique. |
| INNING_TOTAL_HITS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning hits sum to batting team hits. |
| INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning runs sum to final score. |
| LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent. |
| MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence. |
| OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards. |
| PA_BF_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced. |
| PIPELINE_VERSION | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them. |
| PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced. |
| PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds. |
| PITCHING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints. |
| PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines. |
| PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score. |
| PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals. |
| PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values. |
| PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result. |
| RECENT_FORM_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges. |
| RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score. |
| REPORT_COMPLETE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table. |
| REPORT_CSV_EXPORT | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows. |
| RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting/pitching runs agree with final score. |
| SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited. |
| SCORE_NO_TIE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final MLB score has a clear winner. |
| SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | score_evolution simulation_result matches final score. |
| SCORE_STEP_ORDER | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. |
| SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded. |
| STARTER_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected. |
| SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays. |
| TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target. |
| TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed. |
| TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | total_runs equals away + home runs. |
| WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | winner field agrees with the final score. |
20260927_TEX@MIN
20260927_TEX@MIN.json • 2026-09-27
TEX 5 - MIN 4
PASSClean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.
CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7
No action required
No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.
Problems table - exact rows
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|
All findings - complete audit trail
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | MIN | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | MIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | TEX | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | TEX pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | MIN | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | MIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=31; H: current=8, sim=4; 2B: current=2, sim=0; BB: current=3, sim=2). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | MIN | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | MIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Luke Keaschall: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=2; Ryan Jeffers: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Kaelen Culpepper: H current=1 box=0; Kody Clemens: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Austin Martin: H current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Josh Bell: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Royce Lewis: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Walker Jenkins: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | TEX | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | TEX model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; 2B: current=2, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=7; SF: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | TEX | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | TEX current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jake Burger: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Corey Seager: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Alejandro Osuna: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Ezequiel Duran: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Brandon Nimmo: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Wyatt Langford: BB current=1 box=0; Nicky Lopez: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Danny Jansen: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. | |||||
| PASS | batting | current | MIN | BATTING_REALISM | current:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | TEX | BATTING_REALISM | current:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | MIN | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | TEX | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | MIN | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | TEX | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | MIN | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | TEX | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIN | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:MIN batting walks match TEX pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIN | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:MIN batting home runs match TEX pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIN | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:MIN batting hits match TEX pitching: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIN | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:MIN batting strikeouts match TEX pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIN | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:MIN PA=33 matches TEX BF=33. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIN | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:MIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TEX | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:TEX batting walks match MIN pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TEX | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:TEX batting home runs match MIN pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TEX | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:TEX batting hits match MIN pitching: 8. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TEX | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:TEX batting strikeouts match MIN pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TEX | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:TEX PA=36 matches MIN BF=36. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TEX | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:TEX runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.510 -> 0.532 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5101, 'sample_size': 719, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5535, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.5318, 'published_confidence': 0.51197, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | MIN | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | MIN current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | TEX | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | TEX current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIN | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | MIN current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIN | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | MIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIN | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | MIN current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIN | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | MIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TEX | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | TEX current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TEX | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | TEX current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TEX | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | TEX current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TEX | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | TEX hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.512. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.512. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.488. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.503/0.690. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: TEX 8, MIN 4. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: TEX 5 - MIN 4. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: TEX. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for TEX; cap=0.57, reasons=predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.57, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'TEX', 'opponent_team': 'MIN', 'h2h_net_margin': -10, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-26', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'TEX'}, {'date': '2026-09-25', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 10, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -8, 'winner': 'MIN'}, {'date': '2026-06-18', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 9, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -6, 'winner': 'MIN'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260926', 'away': 'TEX', 'home': 'MIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'actual_winner': 'TEX', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.509982, 'artifact': '20260926_TEX@MIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260925', 'away': 'TEX', 'home': 'MIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'actual_winner': 'MIN', 'actual_margin': 8, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.542262, 'artifact': '20260925_TEX@MIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'TEX', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'MIN', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'TEX', 'output_opponent_team': 'MIN', 'simulation_score_winner': 'TEX', 'final_score_winner': 'TEX', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'TEX', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'TEX 5 - 4 MIN', 'winner': 'TEX'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'TEX 5 - 4 MIN', 'winner': 'TEX'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0281, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.522, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'TEX', 'model_winner': 'TEX', 'simulation_winner': 'TEX', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'TEX', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'TEX', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.0204, 'winner': 'TEX', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-27. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260927_TEX@MIN. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: TEX@MIN. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 22.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 22.0, 'home_average_margin': 4.4, 'home_run_delta': 0.1269, 'away_run_delta': -0.1269, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 8.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 6.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 10.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.017305208362976606}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.017254490991820273}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.017187014283191113}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.017136643310233936}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.01580961764210208}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.04954747097090136, '1': 0.07352804000045376, '2': 0.09878885283227842, '3': 0.12016731312555859, '4': 0.13233911150658376, '5': 0.13195125764802296, '6': 0.11911386277097818, '7': 0.09734968239830077, '8': 0.07203278807029473, '9': 0.04825578289246845, '10': 0.029267926962995402, '11': 0.01607155928781765, '12': 0.00799001367003404, '13': 0.0035963378633118884}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.04778460859044301, '1': 0.07098913301435167, '2': 0.09568940415891473, '3': 0.11703182226831609, '4': 0.1298710115817581, '5': 0.13076412684027797, '6': 0.11946292718850215, '7': 0.09902522201076205, '8': 0.07447776516448563, '9': 0.050824789309959, '10': 0.031469705338159994, '11': 0.017679822678661517, '12': 0.009012209362334657, '13': 0.004168240591089288, '14': 0.0017492119019839165}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.25, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.1366, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.312, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.0204} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'TEX 5 - 4 MIN', 'winner': 'TEX'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'TEX 5 - 4 MIN', 'winner': 'TEX'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0281, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.522, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'TEX', 'model_winner': 'TEX', 'simulation_winner': 'TEX', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'TEX', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'TEX', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.0204, 'winner': 'TEX', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 137. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 153. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | MIN | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | MIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | MIN | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | MIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 153. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | TEX | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | TEX pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | TEX | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | TEX pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 137. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 10 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | MIN | PITCHING_REALISM | current:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | MIN | STARTER_PRESENT | current:MIN includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | TEX | PITCHING_REALISM | current:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | TEX | STARTER_PRESENT | current:TEX includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | MIN | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | MIN | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:MIN includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | TEX | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | TEX | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:TEX includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | MIN | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | MIN | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | TEX | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | TEX | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | MIN | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | MIN | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | TEX | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | TEX | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TEX 5 - 4 MIN. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: TEX 5 - 4 MIN. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: TEX wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=TEX, simulation=TEX, published=TEX. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.512. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): TEX wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: TEX wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 9. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: TEX wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | MIN | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | MIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | MIN | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | MIN wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | TEX | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | TEX recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | TEX | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | TEX wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600. |
Passed checks
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PASS | batting | current | MIN | BATTING_REALISM | current:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | TEX | BATTING_REALISM | current:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | MIN | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | TEX | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | MIN | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | TEX | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | MIN | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | TEX | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIN | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:MIN batting walks match TEX pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIN | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:MIN batting home runs match TEX pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIN | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:MIN batting hits match TEX pitching: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIN | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:MIN batting strikeouts match TEX pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIN | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:MIN PA=33 matches TEX BF=33. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIN | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:MIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TEX | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:TEX batting walks match MIN pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TEX | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:TEX batting home runs match MIN pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TEX | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:TEX batting hits match MIN pitching: 8. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TEX | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:TEX batting strikeouts match MIN pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TEX | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:TEX PA=36 matches MIN BF=36. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TEX | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:TEX runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.510 -> 0.532 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5101, 'sample_size': 719, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5535, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.5318, 'published_confidence': 0.51197, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | MIN | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | MIN current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | TEX | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | TEX current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIN | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | MIN current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIN | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | MIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIN | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | MIN current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIN | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | MIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TEX | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | TEX current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TEX | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | TEX current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TEX | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | TEX current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TEX | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | TEX hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.512. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.512. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.488. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.503/0.690. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: TEX 8, MIN 4. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: TEX 5 - MIN 4. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: TEX. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for TEX; cap=0.57, reasons=predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.57, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'TEX', 'opponent_team': 'MIN', 'h2h_net_margin': -10, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-26', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'TEX'}, {'date': '2026-09-25', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 10, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -8, 'winner': 'MIN'}, {'date': '2026-06-18', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 9, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -6, 'winner': 'MIN'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260926', 'away': 'TEX', 'home': 'MIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'actual_winner': 'TEX', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.509982, 'artifact': '20260926_TEX@MIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260925', 'away': 'TEX', 'home': 'MIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'actual_winner': 'MIN', 'actual_margin': 8, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.542262, 'artifact': '20260925_TEX@MIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'TEX', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'MIN', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'TEX', 'output_opponent_team': 'MIN', 'simulation_score_winner': 'TEX', 'final_score_winner': 'TEX', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'TEX', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'TEX 5 - 4 MIN', 'winner': 'TEX'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'TEX 5 - 4 MIN', 'winner': 'TEX'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0281, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.522, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'TEX', 'model_winner': 'TEX', 'simulation_winner': 'TEX', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'TEX', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'TEX', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.0204, 'winner': 'TEX', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-27. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260927_TEX@MIN. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: TEX@MIN. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 22.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 22.0, 'home_average_margin': 4.4, 'home_run_delta': 0.1269, 'away_run_delta': -0.1269, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 8.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 6.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 10.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.017305208362976606}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.017254490991820273}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.017187014283191113}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.017136643310233936}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.01580961764210208}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.04954747097090136, '1': 0.07352804000045376, '2': 0.09878885283227842, '3': 0.12016731312555859, '4': 0.13233911150658376, '5': 0.13195125764802296, '6': 0.11911386277097818, '7': 0.09734968239830077, '8': 0.07203278807029473, '9': 0.04825578289246845, '10': 0.029267926962995402, '11': 0.01607155928781765, '12': 0.00799001367003404, '13': 0.0035963378633118884}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.04778460859044301, '1': 0.07098913301435167, '2': 0.09568940415891473, '3': 0.11703182226831609, '4': 0.1298710115817581, '5': 0.13076412684027797, '6': 0.11946292718850215, '7': 0.09902522201076205, '8': 0.07447776516448563, '9': 0.050824789309959, '10': 0.031469705338159994, '11': 0.017679822678661517, '12': 0.009012209362334657, '13': 0.004168240591089288, '14': 0.0017492119019839165}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.25, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.1366, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.312, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.0204} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'TEX 5 - 4 MIN', 'winner': 'TEX'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'TEX 5 - 4 MIN', 'winner': 'TEX'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0281, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.522, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'TEX', 'model_winner': 'TEX', 'simulation_winner': 'TEX', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'TEX', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'TEX', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.0204, 'winner': 'TEX', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 137. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 153. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | MIN | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | MIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | MIN | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | MIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 153. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | TEX | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | TEX pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | TEX | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | TEX pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 137. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 10 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | MIN | PITCHING_REALISM | current:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | MIN | STARTER_PRESENT | current:MIN includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | TEX | PITCHING_REALISM | current:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | TEX | STARTER_PRESENT | current:TEX includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | MIN | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | MIN | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:MIN includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | TEX | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | TEX | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:TEX includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | MIN | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | MIN | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | TEX | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | TEX | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | MIN | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | MIN | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | TEX | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | TEX | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TEX 5 - 4 MIN. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: TEX 5 - 4 MIN. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: TEX wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=TEX, simulation=TEX, published=TEX. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.512. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): TEX wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: TEX wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 9. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: TEX wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | MIN | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | MIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | MIN | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | MIN wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | TEX | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | TEX recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | TEX | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | TEX wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600. |
Info/context findings
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | MIN | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | MIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | TEX | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | TEX pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | MIN | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | MIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=31; H: current=8, sim=4; 2B: current=2, sim=0; BB: current=3, sim=2). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | MIN | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | MIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Luke Keaschall: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=2; Ryan Jeffers: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Kaelen Culpepper: H current=1 box=0; Kody Clemens: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Austin Martin: H current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Josh Bell: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Royce Lewis: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Walker Jenkins: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | TEX | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | TEX model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; 2B: current=2, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=7; SF: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | TEX | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | TEX current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jake Burger: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Corey Seager: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Alejandro Osuna: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Ezequiel Duran: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Brandon Nimmo: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Wyatt Langford: BB current=1 box=0; Nicky Lopez: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Danny Jansen: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. |
Score evolution
| step | away_runs | home_runs | confidence | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| historical_ml | 4.629659018624814 | 4.336498722476646 | Base ML historical model prediction | |
| variance_applied | 5 | 4 | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) | |
| enhanced_prediction | 5 | 4 | 0.512 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail) |
| embedded_savant_run_environment | 5 | 4 | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality | |
| fundamental_edge_target_review | 5 | 4 | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments | |
| capped_target | 5 | 4 | Capped at max 12 realistic runs | |
| simulation_result | 5 | 4 | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
Inning-by-inning linescore
| team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEX | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 8 |
| MIN | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
Team totals - current + final simulation
| src | team | type | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | SO | SF | HBP | SB | CS | IP | ER | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | TEX | batting | 33 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | TEX | pitching | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 9.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| current | MIN | batting | 34 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | MIN | pitching | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 9.0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| simulation | TEX | batting | 34 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | TEX | pitching | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 9.0 | 4 | 33 | 137 | |||||||||
| simulation | MIN | batting | 31 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | MIN | pitching | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 9.0 | 5 | 36 | 153 |
Batting lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | pos | name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | TEX | 1B | Jake Burger | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TEX | SS | Corey Seager | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TEX | DH | Alejandro Osuna | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TEX | 3B | Ezequiel Duran | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TEX | RF | Brandon Nimmo | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TEX | LF | Wyatt Langford | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TEX | 2B | Nicky Lopez | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | TEX | C | Danny Jansen | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | TEX | CF | Evan Carter | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | MIN | RF | Luke Keaschall | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIN | C | Ryan Jeffers | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIN | SS | Kaelen Culpepper | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIN | 2B | Kody Clemens | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIN | LF | Austin Martin | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | MIN | DH | Josh Bell | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIN | 1B | Royce Lewis | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIN | CF | Walker Jenkins | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | MIN | 3B | Brooks Lee | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| simulation | TEX | 1 | RF | Brandon Nimmo | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | TEX | 2 | LF | Wyatt Langford | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | TEX | 3 | SS | Corey Seager | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | TEX | 4 | 1B | Jake Burger | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | TEX | 5 | 3B | Ezequiel Duran | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | TEX | 6 | DH | Alejandro Osuna | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | TEX | 7 | C | Danny Jansen | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | TEX | 8 | 2B | Nicky Lopez | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | TEX | 9 | CF | Evan Carter | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | MIN | 1 | RF | Luke Keaschall | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | MIN | 2 | SS | Kaelen Culpepper | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | MIN | 3 | DH | Josh Bell | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | MIN | 4 | C | Ryan Jeffers | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | MIN | 5 | 2B | Kody Clemens | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | MIN | 6 | 1B | Royce Lewis | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | MIN | 7 | 3B | Brooks Lee | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | MIN | 8 | LF | Austin Martin | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | MIN | 9 | CF | Walker Jenkins | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | name | role | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | BF | Pitches | sim_ERA | season_ERA | season_WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | TEX | 1 | MacKenzie Gore | Starter | 4.2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7.71 | 4.59 | 1.34 |
| current | TEX | 2 | Jacob Latz | Closer | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.75 | 0.75 |
| current | TEX | 3 | Jakob Junis | Setup Man | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.83 | 1.17 |
| current | TEX | 4 | Tyler Alexander | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.25 | 1.25 |
| current | TEX | 5 | Chase Silseth | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.17 | 1.44 |
| current | MIN | 1 | Dean Kremer | Starter | 5.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3.60 | 4.97 | 1.20 |
| current | MIN | 2 | A.J. Minter | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.01 | 1.01 |
| current | MIN | 3 | Andrew Morris | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.75 | 4.21 | 1.36 |
| current | MIN | 4 | Yoendrys Gómez | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 4.30 | 1.45 |
| current | MIN | 5 | Kody Funderburk | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27.00 | 3.71 | 1.35 |
| simulation | TEX | 1 | MacKenzie Gore | Starter | 4.2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 19 | 79 | 7.71 | 4.59 | 1.34 |
| simulation | TEX | 2 | Jacob Latz | Closer | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 0.00 | 1.75 | 0.75 |
| simulation | TEX | 3 | Jakob Junis | Setup Man | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 0.00 | 2.83 | 1.17 |
| simulation | TEX | 4 | Chase Silseth | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0.00 | 3.17 | 1.44 |
| simulation | TEX | 5 | Tyler Alexander | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 0.00 | 3.25 | 1.25 |
| simulation | MIN | 1 | Dean Kremer | Starter | 5.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 19 | 86 | 3.60 | 4.97 | 1.20 |
| simulation | MIN | 2 | Yoendrys Gómez | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 4.30 | 1.45 |
| simulation | MIN | 3 | A.J. Minter | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 2.01 | 1.01 |
| simulation | MIN | 4 | Andrew Morris | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 23 | 6.75 | 4.21 | 1.36 |
| simulation | MIN | 5 | Kody Funderburk | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 27.00 | 3.71 | 1.35 |
Pitch count summary
| team | pitcher | role | IP | R | H | BB | SO | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEX | MacKenzie Gore | Starter | 4.2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 79 |
| TEX | Jacob Latz | Closer | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 17 |
| TEX | Jakob Junis | Setup Man | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 17 |
| TEX | Tyler Alexander | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 16 |
| TEX | Chase Silseth | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| MIN | Dean Kremer | Starter | 5.0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 86 |
| MIN | A.J. Minter | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
| MIN | Andrew Morris | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 23 |
| MIN | Yoendrys Gómez | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
| MIN | Kody Funderburk | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
Audit rule catalog
| rule | status | critical | error | warning | pass | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATTING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints. |
| BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines. |
| BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts. |
| CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate. |
| CONFIDENCE_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | Confidence values are between 0 and 1. |
| CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup. |
| CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions. |
| CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance has usable player names. |
| CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled. |
| CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. |
| CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs. |
| DATE_PARSE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Game date can be parsed as an ISO date. |
| FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename and game_id identify the same game. |
| FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON. |
| FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner. |
| GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game_summary text agrees with final score. |
| GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner. |
| H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode. |
| INNINGS_COUNT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning count is valid for MLB. |
| INNING_OUTS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Each played half inning has valid outs. |
| INNING_PLAY_SUMS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches. |
| INNING_SEQUENCE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Innings are sequential and unique. |
| INNING_TOTAL_HITS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning hits sum to batting team hits. |
| INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning runs sum to final score. |
| LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent. |
| MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence. |
| OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards. |
| PA_BF_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced. |
| PIPELINE_VERSION | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them. |
| PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced. |
| PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds. |
| PITCHING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints. |
| PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines. |
| PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score. |
| PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals. |
| PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values. |
| PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result. |
| RECENT_FORM_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges. |
| RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score. |
| REPORT_COMPLETE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table. |
| REPORT_CSV_EXPORT | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows. |
| RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting/pitching runs agree with final score. |
| SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited. |
| SCORE_NO_TIE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final MLB score has a clear winner. |
| SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | score_evolution simulation_result matches final score. |
| SCORE_STEP_ORDER | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. |
| SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded. |
| STARTER_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected. |
| SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays. |
| TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target. |
| TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed. |
| TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | total_runs equals away + home runs. |
| WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | winner field agrees with the final score. |