MLB JSON Audit Report

20260925_ARI@SD

20260925_ARI@SD.json • 2026-09-25

ARI 6 - SD 5

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 100INFO 8

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ARI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=9, sim=11).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=37; H: current=8, sim=10; 2B: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=7, sim=9; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ARI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Lars Nootbaar: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Ketel Marte: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Gabriel Moreno: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=3, BB current=0 box=1; Geraldo Perdomo: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Pavin Smith: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2; Corbin Carroll: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Nolan Arenado: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Tim Tawa: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=38; H: current=8, sim=11; 2B: current=1, sim=3; 3B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=7, sim=5).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Fernando Tatis Jr.: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, HR current=1 box=0; Dustin Harris: H current=1 box=2, 3B current=0 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Manny Machado: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2; Luis Campusano: H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jackson Merrill: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jake Cronenworth: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Ty France: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Xander Bogaerts: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	current:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SD	BATTING_REALISM	current:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting walks match SD pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting home runs match SD pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting hits match SD pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting strikeouts match SD pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ARI PA=42 matches SD BF=42.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ARI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SD batting walks match ARI pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SD batting home runs match ARI pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SD batting hits match ARI pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SD batting strikeouts match ARI pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SD PA=41 matches ARI BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.562 -> 0.553 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.562385, 'sample_size': 523, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.543, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.552693, 'published_confidence': 0.505263, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ARI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ARI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ARI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ARI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.505.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.505.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.495.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.524/0.713.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: ARI 10, SD 11.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: ARI 6 - SD 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: ARI.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for ARI; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'ARI', 'opponent_team': 'SD', 'h2h_net_margin': -3, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-06', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -4, 'winner': 'SD'}, {'date': '2026-08-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 10, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 6, 'winner': 'ARI'}, {'date': '2026-08-04', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 9, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -5, 'winner': 'SD'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 8, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 4, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 2, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260806', 'away': 'SD', 'home': 'ARI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ARI', 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.672607, 'artifact': '20260806_SD@ARI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260805', 'away': 'SD', 'home': 'ARI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SD', 'actual_winner': 'ARI', 'actual_margin': 6, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260805_SD@ARI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260804', 'away': 'SD', 'home': 'ARI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ARI', 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.54, 'artifact': '20260804_SD@ARI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260803', 'away': 'SD', 'home': 'ARI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SD', 'actual_winner': 'ARI', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260803_SD@ARI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260709', 'away': 'ARI', 'home': 'SD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ARI', 'actual_winner': 'ARI', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.63, 'artifact': '20260709_ARI@SD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'ARI', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'SD', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'ARI', 'output_opponent_team': 'SD', 'simulation_score_winner': 'ARI', 'final_score_winner': 'ARI', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'ARI', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'ARI 6 - 5 SD', 'winner': 'ARI'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'ARI 6 - 5 SD', 'winner': 'ARI'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0664, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.27, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'ARI', 'model_winner': 'ARI', 'simulation_winner': 'ARI', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 4, 'published_winner': 'ARI', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.75, 'draw_majority_team': 'ARI', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.2662, 'winner': 'ARI', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-25.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260925_ARI@SD.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: ARI@SD.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -3.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 3.0, 'home_average_margin': -0.6, 'home_run_delta': -0.0173, 'away_run_delta': 0.0173, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -6.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.015420692009506983}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.015144155865786473}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01500391994392834}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.014734857689171729}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.014491478771724792}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.03740153235375832, '1': 0.05694317617099317, '2': 0.07926905775701784, '3': 0.10089634195196107, '4': 0.11742399791045702, '5': 0.12495338362812441, '6': 0.12157629265428042, '7': 0.10815820907982143, '8': 0.08797915686815286, '9': 0.06543495687637856, '10': 0.044498929360447324, '11': 0.027669354027124837, '12': 0.01573106751290352, '13': 0.008177623023210952, '14': 0.003886920825368275}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.036167179629637405, '1': 0.055110485612127495, '2': 0.07691271730980481, '3': 0.09831196916347609, '4': 0.11509566257829211, '5': 0.12341156006947943, '6': 0.12119844558077128, '7': 0.1090140764674444, '8': 0.08980746393642598, '9': 0.06776206116479289, '10': 0.046827945636553236, '11': 0.029639298856079604, '12': 0.017182053567285565, '13': 0.009122765974583592, '14': 0.004436314453245906}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.15, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.2264, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.34, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.2662}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'ARI 6 - 5 SD', 'winner': 'ARI'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'ARI 6 - 5 SD', 'winner': 'ARI'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0664, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.27, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'ARI', 'model_winner': 'ARI', 'simulation_winner': 'ARI', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 4, 'published_winner': 'ARI', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.75, 'draw_majority_team': 'ARI', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.2662, 'winner': 'ARI', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 168.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 178.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 168.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 178.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: ARI 6 - 5 SD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: ARI 6 - 5 SD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: ARI wins 6-5.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=ARI, simulation=ARI, published=ARI.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.505.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): ARI wins 6-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: ARI wins 6-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 6-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-5, final 6-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 11.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: ARI wins 6-5.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ARI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ARI wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SD wins and win_pct agree: 8/10 = 0.800.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	current:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SD	BATTING_REALISM	current:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting walks match SD pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting home runs match SD pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting hits match SD pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting strikeouts match SD pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ARI PA=42 matches SD BF=42.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ARI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SD batting walks match ARI pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SD batting home runs match ARI pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SD batting hits match ARI pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SD batting strikeouts match ARI pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SD PA=41 matches ARI BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.562 -> 0.553 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.562385, 'sample_size': 523, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.543, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.552693, 'published_confidence': 0.505263, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ARI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ARI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ARI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ARI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.505.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.505.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.495.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.524/0.713.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: ARI 10, SD 11.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: ARI 6 - SD 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: ARI.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for ARI; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'ARI', 'opponent_team': 'SD', 'h2h_net_margin': -3, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-06', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -4, 'winner': 'SD'}, {'date': '2026-08-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 10, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 6, 'winner': 'ARI'}, {'date': '2026-08-04', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 9, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -5, 'winner': 'SD'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 8, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 4, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 2, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260806', 'away': 'SD', 'home': 'ARI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ARI', 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.672607, 'artifact': '20260806_SD@ARI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260805', 'away': 'SD', 'home': 'ARI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SD', 'actual_winner': 'ARI', 'actual_margin': 6, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260805_SD@ARI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260804', 'away': 'SD', 'home': 'ARI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ARI', 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.54, 'artifact': '20260804_SD@ARI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260803', 'away': 'SD', 'home': 'ARI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SD', 'actual_winner': 'ARI', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260803_SD@ARI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260709', 'away': 'ARI', 'home': 'SD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ARI', 'actual_winner': 'ARI', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.63, 'artifact': '20260709_ARI@SD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'ARI', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'SD', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'ARI', 'output_opponent_team': 'SD', 'simulation_score_winner': 'ARI', 'final_score_winner': 'ARI', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'ARI', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'ARI 6 - 5 SD', 'winner': 'ARI'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'ARI 6 - 5 SD', 'winner': 'ARI'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0664, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.27, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'ARI', 'model_winner': 'ARI', 'simulation_winner': 'ARI', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 4, 'published_winner': 'ARI', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.75, 'draw_majority_team': 'ARI', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.2662, 'winner': 'ARI', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-25.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260925_ARI@SD.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: ARI@SD.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -3.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 3.0, 'home_average_margin': -0.6, 'home_run_delta': -0.0173, 'away_run_delta': 0.0173, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -6.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.015420692009506983}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.015144155865786473}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01500391994392834}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.014734857689171729}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.014491478771724792}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.03740153235375832, '1': 0.05694317617099317, '2': 0.07926905775701784, '3': 0.10089634195196107, '4': 0.11742399791045702, '5': 0.12495338362812441, '6': 0.12157629265428042, '7': 0.10815820907982143, '8': 0.08797915686815286, '9': 0.06543495687637856, '10': 0.044498929360447324, '11': 0.027669354027124837, '12': 0.01573106751290352, '13': 0.008177623023210952, '14': 0.003886920825368275}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.036167179629637405, '1': 0.055110485612127495, '2': 0.07691271730980481, '3': 0.09831196916347609, '4': 0.11509566257829211, '5': 0.12341156006947943, '6': 0.12119844558077128, '7': 0.1090140764674444, '8': 0.08980746393642598, '9': 0.06776206116479289, '10': 0.046827945636553236, '11': 0.029639298856079604, '12': 0.017182053567285565, '13': 0.009122765974583592, '14': 0.004436314453245906}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.15, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.2264, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.34, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.2662}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'ARI 6 - 5 SD', 'winner': 'ARI'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'ARI 6 - 5 SD', 'winner': 'ARI'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0664, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.27, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'ARI', 'model_winner': 'ARI', 'simulation_winner': 'ARI', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 4, 'published_winner': 'ARI', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.75, 'draw_majority_team': 'ARI', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.2662, 'winner': 'ARI', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 168.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 178.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 168.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 178.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: ARI 6 - 5 SD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: ARI 6 - 5 SD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: ARI wins 6-5.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=ARI, simulation=ARI, published=ARI.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.505.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): ARI wins 6-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: ARI wins 6-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 6-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-5, final 6-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 11.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: ARI wins 6-5.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ARI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ARI wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SD wins and win_pct agree: 8/10 = 0.800.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ARI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=9, sim=11).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=37; H: current=8, sim=10; 2B: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=7, sim=9; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ARI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Lars Nootbaar: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Ketel Marte: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Gabriel Moreno: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=3, BB current=0 box=1; Geraldo Perdomo: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Pavin Smith: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2; Corbin Carroll: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Nolan Arenado: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Tim Tawa: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=38; H: current=8, sim=11; 2B: current=1, sim=3; 3B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=7, sim=5).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Fernando Tatis Jr.: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, HR current=1 box=0; Dustin Harris: H current=1 box=2, 3B current=0 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Manny Machado: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2; Luis Campusano: H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jackson Merrill: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jake Cronenworth: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Ty France: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Xander Bogaerts: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.146106105521381	4.399300110465504		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	4		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	6	5	0.505	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	6	5		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6	5		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6	5		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
ARI	0	0	1	0	2	0	2	0	1	6	10
SD	1	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	1	5	11

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	ARI	batting	33	8	1	0	1	4	4	3	7	0	0	0	0
current	ARI	pitching		9			0		5	3	5					9.0	5	0	0
current	SD	batting	33	8	1	0	1	4	5	3	7	0	0	0	0
current	SD	pitching		10			1		6	4	9					9.0	6	0	0
simulation	ARI	batting	37	10	2	0	1	6	6	4	9	0	1
simulation	ARI	pitching		11			0		5	3	5					9.0	5	41	168
simulation	SD	batting	38	11	3	2	0	5	5	3	5	0	0
simulation	SD	pitching		10			1		6	4	9					9.0	6	42	178

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	ARI		LF	Lars Nootbaar	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	ARI		2B	Ketel Marte	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
current	ARI		C	Gabriel Moreno	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	ARI		SS	Geraldo Perdomo	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.250
current	ARI		DH	Pavin Smith	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	ARI		RF	Corbin Carroll	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	ARI		3B	Nolan Arenado	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	ARI		1B	Tim Tawa	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	ARI		CF	Jordan Lawlar	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	SD		2B	Fernando Tatis Jr.	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	SD		RF	Dustin Harris	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.250
current	SD		DH	Manny Machado	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	SD		C	Luis Campusano	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	SD		CF	Jackson Merrill	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	SD		3B	Jake Cronenworth	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	SD		1B	Ty France	0	4	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	SD		SS	Xander Bogaerts	0	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.000
current	SD		LF	Samad Taylor	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	ARI	1	LF	Lars Nootbaar	5	3	2	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	1	0.667
simulation	ARI	2	2B	Ketel Marte	5	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	ARI	3	C	Gabriel Moreno	5	4	2	0	0	0	1	3	1	1	0	0.500
simulation	ARI	4	SS	Geraldo Perdomo	5	5	2	0	0	0	1	2	0	2	0	0.400
simulation	ARI	5	RF	Corbin Carroll	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0.000
simulation	ARI	6	3B	Nolan Arenado	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	ARI	7	1B	Tim Tawa	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	ARI	8	DH	Pavin Smith	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	ARI	9	CF	Jordan Lawlar	4	4	2	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	SD	1	2B	Fernando Tatis Jr.	5	5	2	2	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.400
simulation	SD	2	RF	Dustin Harris	5	4	2	0	2	0	1	2	1	0	0	0.500
simulation	SD	3	DH	Manny Machado	5	4	2	0	0	0	1	2	1	1	0	0.500
simulation	SD	4	1B	Ty France	5	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
simulation	SD	5	CF	Jackson Merrill	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	SD	6	SS	Xander Bogaerts	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	SD	7	C	Luis Campusano	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	SD	8	3B	Jake Cronenworth	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	SD	9	LF	Samad Taylor	4	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.750

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	ARI	1	Brandon Pfaadt	Starter	6.0	8	5	5	2	4	0	0	0	7.50	3.72	1.17
current	ARI	2	Brandyn Garcia	Closer	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.74	0.68
current	ARI	3	Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.80	1.11
current	ARI	4	Juan Morillo	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.54	0.98
current	SD	1	Casey Mize	Starter	4.2	5	3	3	2	7	1	0	0	5.79	3.96	1.19
current	SD	2	Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.75	0.97
current	SD	3	Adrian Morejon	Setup Man	1.0	3	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	18.00	2.86	1.08
current	SD	4	Jason Adam	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	9.00	2.43	1.14
current	SD	5	Mason Miller	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.30	0.84
simulation	ARI	1	Brandon Pfaadt	Starter	6.0	8	4	4	2	4	0	28	116	6.00	3.72	1.17
simulation	ARI	2	Brandyn Garcia	Closer	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	16	0.00	1.74	0.68
simulation	ARI	3	Juan Morillo	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	4	17	0.00	2.54	0.98
simulation	ARI	4	Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	0	5	19	9.00	2.80	1.11
simulation	SD	1	Casey Mize	Starter	4.2	5	3	3	2	7	1	22	94	5.79	3.96	1.19
simulation	SD	2	Mason Miller	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	1.30	0.84
simulation	SD	3	Adrian Morejon	Setup Man	1.0	3	2	2	1	0	0	7	26	18.00	2.86	1.08
simulation	SD	4	Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	22	0.00	1.75	0.97
simulation	SD	5	Jason Adam	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	1	1	1	2	0	6	23	9.00	2.43	1.14

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
ARI	Brandon Pfaadt	Starter	6.0	4	8	2	4	28	116
ARI	Brandyn Garcia	Closer	1.0	0	1	0	0	4	16
ARI	Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	2	0	0	5	19
ARI	Juan Morillo	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	1	1	4	17
SD	Casey Mize	Starter	4.2	3	5	2	7	22	94
SD	Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	0	4	22
SD	Adrian Morejon	Setup Man	1.0	2	3	1	0	7	26
SD	Jason Adam	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	2	1	2	6	23
SD	Mason Miller	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	1	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260925_ATL@MIA

20260925_ATL@MIA.json • 2026-09-25

ATL 5 - MIA 4

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=38; 2B: current=1, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=14).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ATL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Drake Baldwin: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Mauricio Dubón: H current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Ronald Acuña Jr.: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Matt Olson: H current=1 box=3, RBI current=1 box=3; Michael Harris II: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Ozzie Albies: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Austin Riley: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Sean Murphy: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=36; H: current=7, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=4).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Heriberto Hernández: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Otto Lopez: AB current=4 box=5; Griffin Conine: AB current=4 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Deyvison De Los Santos: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1; Javier Sanoja: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jared Serna: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Jakob Marsee: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Agustín Ramírez: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	current:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting walks match MIA pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting home runs match MIA pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting hits match MIA pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting strikeouts match MIA pitching: 14.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ATL PA=41 matches MIA BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ATL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting walks match ATL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting home runs match ATL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting hits match ATL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting strikeouts match ATL pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIA PA=40 matches ATL BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.584 -> 0.572 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.583966, 'sample_size': 692, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5592, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.571583, 'published_confidence': 0.534431, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ATL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ATL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ATL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ATL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.534.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.534.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.466.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.525/0.713.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 10 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: ATL 8, MIA 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: ATL 5 - MIA 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: ATL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for ATL; cap=0.58, reasons=local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'opponent_team': 'MIA', 'h2h_net_margin': 13, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-06', 'predicted_team_runs': 11, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 8, 'winner': 'ATL'}, {'date': '2026-08-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'ATL'}, {'date': '2026-08-04', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'ATL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 3, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260806', 'away': 'MIA', 'home': 'ATL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 8, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.58, 'artifact': '20260806_MIA@ATL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260805', 'away': 'MIA', 'home': 'ATL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260805_MIA@ATL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260804', 'away': 'MIA', 'home': 'ATL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.66, 'artifact': '20260804_MIA@ATL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'ATL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'MIA', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'ATL', 'output_opponent_team': 'MIA', 'simulation_score_winner': 'ATL', 'final_score_winner': 'ATL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'ATL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'ATL 5 - 4 MIA', 'winner': 'ATL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'ATL 5 - 4 MIA', 'winner': 'ATL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0359, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.294, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'ATL', 'model_winner': 'ATL', 'simulation_winner': 'ATL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 4, 'published_winner': 'ATL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.5343, 'winner': 'ATL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-25.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260925_ATL@MIA.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: ATL@MIA.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -27.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 27.0, 'home_average_margin': -5.4, 'home_run_delta': -0.1558, 'away_run_delta': 0.1558, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -8.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -6.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -8.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.020285078938493704}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.020261888128339216}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01980750476670822}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.019784859940722006}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.018313289007899764}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.06447004704504093, '1': 0.09637774876630113, '2': 0.12701010712085403, '3': 0.14755111685081423, '4': 0.15110868774406921, '5': 0.13642032543488392, '6': 0.10857040115262985, '7': 0.07617044940047626, '8': 0.04710904578311696, '9': 0.025684127147787426, '10': 0.012344344379638687, '11': 0.005230147790589772, '12': 0.0019534513837976856}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.04785058623585053, '1': 0.07234113831336787, '2': 0.0986017669461203, '3': 0.12116727497702152, '4': 0.134241645806959, '5': 0.13408817474913493, '6': 0.1207521783402318, '7': 0.09803942444140468, '8': 0.07176419470467647, '9': 0.04736048733393852, '10': 0.02817901402797165, '11': 0.015115993895288298, '12': 0.007310530719046546, '13': 0.0031875895089880212}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.15, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.8522, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.056, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.5343}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'ATL 5 - 4 MIA', 'winner': 'ATL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'ATL 5 - 4 MIA', 'winner': 'ATL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0359, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.294, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'ATL', 'model_winner': 'ATL', 'simulation_winner': 'ATL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 4, 'published_winner': 'ATL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.5343, 'winner': 'ATL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 173.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 187.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 173.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 187.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 10 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: ATL 5 - 4 MIA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: ATL 5 - 4 MIA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: ATL wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=ATL, simulation=ATL, published=ATL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.534.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): ATL wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: ATL wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: ATL wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ATL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ATL wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIA wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	current:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting walks match MIA pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting home runs match MIA pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting hits match MIA pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting strikeouts match MIA pitching: 14.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ATL PA=41 matches MIA BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ATL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting walks match ATL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting home runs match ATL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting hits match ATL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting strikeouts match ATL pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIA PA=40 matches ATL BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.584 -> 0.572 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.583966, 'sample_size': 692, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5592, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.571583, 'published_confidence': 0.534431, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ATL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ATL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ATL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ATL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.534.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.534.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.466.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.525/0.713.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 10 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: ATL 8, MIA 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: ATL 5 - MIA 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: ATL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for ATL; cap=0.58, reasons=local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'opponent_team': 'MIA', 'h2h_net_margin': 13, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-06', 'predicted_team_runs': 11, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 8, 'winner': 'ATL'}, {'date': '2026-08-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'ATL'}, {'date': '2026-08-04', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'ATL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 3, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260806', 'away': 'MIA', 'home': 'ATL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 8, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.58, 'artifact': '20260806_MIA@ATL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260805', 'away': 'MIA', 'home': 'ATL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260805_MIA@ATL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260804', 'away': 'MIA', 'home': 'ATL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.66, 'artifact': '20260804_MIA@ATL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'ATL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'MIA', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'ATL', 'output_opponent_team': 'MIA', 'simulation_score_winner': 'ATL', 'final_score_winner': 'ATL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'ATL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'ATL 5 - 4 MIA', 'winner': 'ATL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'ATL 5 - 4 MIA', 'winner': 'ATL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0359, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.294, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'ATL', 'model_winner': 'ATL', 'simulation_winner': 'ATL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 4, 'published_winner': 'ATL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.5343, 'winner': 'ATL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-25.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260925_ATL@MIA.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: ATL@MIA.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -27.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 27.0, 'home_average_margin': -5.4, 'home_run_delta': -0.1558, 'away_run_delta': 0.1558, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -8.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -6.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -8.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.020285078938493704}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.020261888128339216}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01980750476670822}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.019784859940722006}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.018313289007899764}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.06447004704504093, '1': 0.09637774876630113, '2': 0.12701010712085403, '3': 0.14755111685081423, '4': 0.15110868774406921, '5': 0.13642032543488392, '6': 0.10857040115262985, '7': 0.07617044940047626, '8': 0.04710904578311696, '9': 0.025684127147787426, '10': 0.012344344379638687, '11': 0.005230147790589772, '12': 0.0019534513837976856}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.04785058623585053, '1': 0.07234113831336787, '2': 0.0986017669461203, '3': 0.12116727497702152, '4': 0.134241645806959, '5': 0.13408817474913493, '6': 0.1207521783402318, '7': 0.09803942444140468, '8': 0.07176419470467647, '9': 0.04736048733393852, '10': 0.02817901402797165, '11': 0.015115993895288298, '12': 0.007310530719046546, '13': 0.0031875895089880212}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.15, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.8522, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.056, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.5343}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'ATL 5 - 4 MIA', 'winner': 'ATL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'ATL 5 - 4 MIA', 'winner': 'ATL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0359, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.294, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'ATL', 'model_winner': 'ATL', 'simulation_winner': 'ATL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 4, 'published_winner': 'ATL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.5343, 'winner': 'ATL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 173.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 187.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 173.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 187.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 10 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: ATL 5 - 4 MIA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: ATL 5 - 4 MIA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: ATL wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=ATL, simulation=ATL, published=ATL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.534.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): ATL wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: ATL wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: ATL wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ATL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ATL wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIA wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=38; 2B: current=1, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=14).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ATL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Drake Baldwin: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Mauricio Dubón: H current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Ronald Acuña Jr.: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Matt Olson: H current=1 box=3, RBI current=1 box=3; Michael Harris II: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Ozzie Albies: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Austin Riley: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Sean Murphy: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=36; H: current=7, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=4).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Heriberto Hernández: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Otto Lopez: AB current=4 box=5; Griffin Conine: AB current=4 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Deyvison De Los Santos: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1; Javier Sanoja: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jared Serna: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Jakob Marsee: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Agustín Ramírez: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.797926768614407	4.066974455322697		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	4		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5	4	0.534	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5	4		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R	H
ATL	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	1	5	8
MIA	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	4	6

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	ATL	batting	33	8	1	0	1	4	4	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	ATL	pitching		6			1		4	4	8					9.0	4	0	0
current	MIA	batting	33	7	1	0	1	4	5	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	MIA	pitching		8			3		5	3	14					9.0	5	0	0
simulation	ATL	batting	38	8	0	0	3	5	5	3	14	0	0
simulation	ATL	pitching		6			1		4	4	8					10.0	4	40	173
simulation	MIA	batting	36	6	1	0	1	4	4	4	8	0	0
simulation	MIA	pitching		8			3		5	3	14					10.0	5	41	187

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	ATL		DH	Drake Baldwin	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	ATL		SS	Mauricio Dubón	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	ATL		RF	Ronald Acuña Jr.	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	ATL		1B	Matt Olson	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	ATL		CF	Michael Harris II	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	ATL		2B	Ozzie Albies	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	ATL		3B	Austin Riley	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	ATL		C	Sean Murphy	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	ATL		LF	Mike Yastrzemski	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	MIA		LF	Heriberto Hernández	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	MIA		SS	Otto Lopez	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	MIA		RF	Griffin Conine	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	MIA		1B	Deyvison De Los Santos	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	MIA		3B	Javier Sanoja	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	0.250
current	MIA		2B	Jared Serna	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	MIA		CF	Jakob Marsee	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	MIA		DH	Agustín Ramírez	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	MIA		C	Joe Mack	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.333
simulation	ATL	1	DH	Drake Baldwin	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	ATL	2	RF	Ronald Acuña Jr.	5	5	2	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.400
simulation	ATL	3	1B	Matt Olson	5	4	3	0	1	1	3	1	1	0.750
simulation	ATL	4	CF	Michael Harris II	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0.000
simulation	ATL	5	SS	Mauricio Dubón	5	4	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	ATL	6	2B	Ozzie Albies	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0.000
simulation	ATL	7	LF	Mike Yastrzemski	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.250
simulation	ATL	8	3B	Austin Riley	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	ATL	9	C	Sean Murphy	4	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.500
simulation	MIA	1	SS	Otto Lopez	5	5	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.200
simulation	MIA	2	CF	Jakob Marsee	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0.000
simulation	MIA	3	LF	Heriberto Hernández	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0.000
simulation	MIA	4	3B	Javier Sanoja	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	MIA	5	RF	Griffin Conine	4	2	1	0	0	1	0	2	0	0.500
simulation	MIA	6	DH	Agustín Ramírez	4	4	2	1	1	1	3	0	1	0.500
simulation	MIA	7	1B	Deyvison De Los Santos	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	MIA	8	C	Joe Mack	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
simulation	MIA	9	2B	Jared Serna	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	ATL	1	Ray Kerr	Starter	5.0	0	0	0	3	5	0	0	0	0.00	1.76	0.52
current	ATL	2	Didier Fuentes	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	2	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	13.50	2.26	1.05
current	ATL	4	Dylan Lee	Setup Man	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.86	0.91
current	ATL	5	Raisel Iglesias	Closer	1.2	3	2	2	0	1	1	0	0	10.80	2.59	1.08
current	ATL	7	Elieser Hernández	Reliever	0.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
current	MIA	1	Eury Pérez	Starter	5.0	5	1	1	2	6	1	0	0	1.80	4.14	1.27
current	MIA	2	Calvin Faucher	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	3.34	1.29
current	MIA	3	Michael Petersen	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.08	1.13
current	MIA	4	Tyler Zuber	Setup Man	1.1	2	2	2	0	1	1	0	0	13.50	5.67	1.44
current	MIA	5	Victor Vodnik	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.1	1	2	2	0	4	1	0	0	54.00	4.53	1.49
simulation	ATL	1	Ray Kerr	Starter	5.0	0	0	0	3	5	0	18	87	0.00	1.76	0.52
simulation	ATL	2	Raisel Iglesias	Closer	1.2	3	2	2	0	1	1	8	30	10.80	2.59	1.08
simulation	ATL	3	Dylan Lee	Setup Man	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	4	16	0.00	2.86	0.91
simulation	ATL	4	Didier Fuentes	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	2	2	2	1	0	0	7	27	13.50	2.26	1.05
simulation	ATL	5	Elieser Hernández	Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	2.45	1.45
simulation	MIA	1	Eury Pérez	Starter	5.0	5	1	1	2	6	1	22	98	1.80	4.14	1.27
simulation	MIA	2	Calvin Faucher	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	13	0.00	3.34	1.29
simulation	MIA	3	Tyler Zuber	Setup Man	1.1	2	2	2	0	1	1	6	23	13.50	5.67	1.44
simulation	MIA	4	Michael Petersen	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	0	5	33	0.00	3.08	1.13
simulation	MIA	5	Victor Vodnik	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	1	2	2	0	4	1	5	20	13.50	4.53	1.49

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
ATL	Ray Kerr	Starter	5.0	0	0	3	5	18	87
ATL	Didier Fuentes	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	2	2	1	0	7	27
ATL	Dylan Lee	Setup Man	1.0	0	1	0	1	4	16
ATL	Raisel Iglesias	Closer	1.2	2	3	0	1	8	30
ATL	Elieser Hernández	Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13
MIA	Eury Pérez	Starter	5.0	1	5	2	6	22	98
MIA	Calvin Faucher	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	13
MIA	Michael Petersen	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	1	1	5	33
MIA	Tyler Zuber	Setup Man	1.1	2	2	0	1	6	23
MIA	Victor Vodnik	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	2	1	0	4	5	20

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260925_BAL@NYY

20260925_BAL@NYY.json • 2026-09-25

BAL 5 - NYY 6

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BAL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYY pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=43; H: current=7, sim=10; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=3, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=10, sim=13).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BAL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Dylan Beavers: AB current=4 box=6, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Coby Mayo: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0; Colton Cowser: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1; Christian Encarnacion-Strand: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Gunnar Henderson: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Pete Alonso: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Jeremiah Jackson: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Christian Franklin: AB current=3 box=5, H current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=44; H: current=8, sim=11; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=6; SO: current=10, sim=11).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYY current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Amed Rosario: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=3; Heliot Ramos: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; George Lombard Jr.: AB current=4 box=6, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Anthony Volpe: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Ben Rice: AB current=4 box=6, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; José Caballero: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1; Paul Goldschmidt: AB current=4 box=6, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Ali Sánchez: H current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	current:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting walks match NYY pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting home runs match NYY pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting hits match NYY pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting strikeouts match NYY pitching: 13.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BAL PA=48 matches NYY BF=48.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BAL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting walks match BAL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting home runs match BAL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting hits match BAL pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting strikeouts match BAL pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYY PA=50 matches BAL BF=50.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYY runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.529 -> 0.536 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.529428, 'sample_size': 523, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.543, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.536214, 'published_confidence': 0.505, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BAL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BAL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BAL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BAL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYY current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYY current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYY current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYY hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.495.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.505.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.505.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.524/0.713.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 11 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: BAL 10, NYY 11.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: BAL 5 - NYY 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: NYY.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for NYY; cap=0.58, reasons=local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'opponent_team': 'BAL', 'h2h_net_margin': 9, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-20', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 5, 'winner': 'NYY'}, {'date': '2026-08-19', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'NYY'}, {'date': '2026-08-18', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'NYY'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260820', 'away': 'NYY', 'home': 'BAL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260820_NYY@BAL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260819', 'away': 'NYY', 'home': 'BAL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5195719999999999, 'artifact': '20260819_NYY@BAL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260818', 'away': 'NYY', 'home': 'BAL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'BAL', 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260818_NYY@BAL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'NYY', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'BAL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'output_opponent_team': 'BAL', 'simulation_score_winner': 'NYY', 'final_score_winner': 'NYY', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'BAL 5 - 6 NYY', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'BAL 5 - 6 NYY', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0759, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.482, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'NYY', 'model_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'NYY', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.8719, 'winner': 'NYY', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-25.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260925_BAL@NYY.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: BAL@NYY.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 6.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 6.0, 'home_average_margin': 1.2, 'home_run_delta': 0.0346, 'away_run_delta': -0.0346, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -7.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.022009582096405682}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.0211459465059566}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.021091956974933674}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.020355296213918128}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.020288500931312885}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.06054926658475804, '1': 0.09075941243733304, '2': 0.12057164180781149, '3': 0.14196110922309743, '4': 0.14813725875014033, '5': 0.1370029548479875, '6': 0.11229651395247599, '7': 0.0815780510399444, '8': 0.05252318899227621, '9': 0.029970884393763213, '10': 0.01515719160173427, '11': 0.0067937354764917605, '12': 0.002698790892186283}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.06108432733519885, '1': 0.09152800090711886, '2': 0.12145954599365472, '3': 0.14274563120965383, '4': 0.14857559996792388, '5': 0.13695744812946098, '6': 0.11180914166094437, '7': 0.08083928561931825, '8': 0.05176319991647352, '9': 0.02935440353246237, '10': 0.014742763536567694, '11': 0.0065574960080782094, '12': 0.00258315618314448}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.15, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 1.195, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.272, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.8719}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'BAL 5 - 6 NYY', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'BAL 5 - 6 NYY', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0759, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.482, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'NYY', 'model_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'NYY', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.8719, 'winner': 'NYY', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 218.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 205.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 218.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 205.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 12 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 11.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 11.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: BAL 5 - 6 NYY.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: BAL 5 - 6 NYY.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYY wins 6-5 (Extra Innings - 11).
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=NYY, simulation=NYY, published=NYY.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.505.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): NYY wins 6-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: NYY wins 5-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-6, final 5-6 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 11.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: NYY wins 6-5 (Extra Innings - 11).
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BAL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BAL wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYY recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYY wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	current:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting walks match NYY pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting home runs match NYY pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting hits match NYY pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting strikeouts match NYY pitching: 13.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BAL PA=48 matches NYY BF=48.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BAL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting walks match BAL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting home runs match BAL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting hits match BAL pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting strikeouts match BAL pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYY PA=50 matches BAL BF=50.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYY runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.529 -> 0.536 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.529428, 'sample_size': 523, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.543, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.536214, 'published_confidence': 0.505, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BAL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BAL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BAL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BAL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYY current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYY current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYY current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYY hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.495.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.505.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.505.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.524/0.713.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 11 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: BAL 10, NYY 11.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: BAL 5 - NYY 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: NYY.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for NYY; cap=0.58, reasons=local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'opponent_team': 'BAL', 'h2h_net_margin': 9, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-20', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 5, 'winner': 'NYY'}, {'date': '2026-08-19', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'NYY'}, {'date': '2026-08-18', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'NYY'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260820', 'away': 'NYY', 'home': 'BAL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260820_NYY@BAL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260819', 'away': 'NYY', 'home': 'BAL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5195719999999999, 'artifact': '20260819_NYY@BAL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260818', 'away': 'NYY', 'home': 'BAL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'BAL', 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260818_NYY@BAL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'NYY', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'BAL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'output_opponent_team': 'BAL', 'simulation_score_winner': 'NYY', 'final_score_winner': 'NYY', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'BAL 5 - 6 NYY', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'BAL 5 - 6 NYY', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0759, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.482, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'NYY', 'model_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'NYY', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.8719, 'winner': 'NYY', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-25.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260925_BAL@NYY.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: BAL@NYY.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 6.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 6.0, 'home_average_margin': 1.2, 'home_run_delta': 0.0346, 'away_run_delta': -0.0346, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -7.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.022009582096405682}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.0211459465059566}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.021091956974933674}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.020355296213918128}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.020288500931312885}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.06054926658475804, '1': 0.09075941243733304, '2': 0.12057164180781149, '3': 0.14196110922309743, '4': 0.14813725875014033, '5': 0.1370029548479875, '6': 0.11229651395247599, '7': 0.0815780510399444, '8': 0.05252318899227621, '9': 0.029970884393763213, '10': 0.01515719160173427, '11': 0.0067937354764917605, '12': 0.002698790892186283}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.06108432733519885, '1': 0.09152800090711886, '2': 0.12145954599365472, '3': 0.14274563120965383, '4': 0.14857559996792388, '5': 0.13695744812946098, '6': 0.11180914166094437, '7': 0.08083928561931825, '8': 0.05176319991647352, '9': 0.02935440353246237, '10': 0.014742763536567694, '11': 0.0065574960080782094, '12': 0.00258315618314448}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.15, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 1.195, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.272, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.8719}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'BAL 5 - 6 NYY', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'BAL 5 - 6 NYY', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0759, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.482, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'NYY', 'model_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'NYY', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.8719, 'winner': 'NYY', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 218.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 205.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 218.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 205.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 12 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 11.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 11.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: BAL 5 - 6 NYY.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: BAL 5 - 6 NYY.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYY wins 6-5 (Extra Innings - 11).
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=NYY, simulation=NYY, published=NYY.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.505.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): NYY wins 6-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: NYY wins 5-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-6, final 5-6 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 11.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: NYY wins 6-5 (Extra Innings - 11).
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BAL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BAL wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYY recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYY wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BAL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYY pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=43; H: current=7, sim=10; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=3, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=10, sim=13).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BAL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Dylan Beavers: AB current=4 box=6, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Coby Mayo: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0; Colton Cowser: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1; Christian Encarnacion-Strand: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Gunnar Henderson: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Pete Alonso: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Jeremiah Jackson: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Christian Franklin: AB current=3 box=5, H current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=44; H: current=8, sim=11; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=6; SO: current=10, sim=11).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYY current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Amed Rosario: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=3; Heliot Ramos: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; George Lombard Jr.: AB current=4 box=6, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Anthony Volpe: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Ben Rice: AB current=4 box=6, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; José Caballero: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1; Paul Goldschmidt: AB current=4 box=6, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Ali Sánchez: H current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	5.333537292709107	2.988694556506531		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	3		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4	5	0.505	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5	5		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5	6		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5	6		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5	6		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	R	H
BAL	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	5	10
NYY	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	6	11

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	BAL	batting	32	7	1	0	1	4	3	3	10	0	0	0	0
current	BAL	pitching		11			2		6	6	11					8.0	6	0	0
current	NYY	batting	32	8	1	0	1	4	4	3	10	0	0	0	0
current	NYY	pitching		10			3		5	5	13					9.0	5	0	0
simulation	BAL	batting	43	10	2	0	3	5	5	5	13	0	0
simulation	BAL	pitching		11			2		6	6	11					11.0	6	50	218
simulation	NYY	batting	44	11	2	0	2	6	6	6	11	0	0
simulation	NYY	pitching		10			3		5	5	13					11.0	5	48	205

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	BAL		RF	Dylan Beavers	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	0.250
current	BAL		DH	Coby Mayo	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	2	0.250
current	BAL		CF	Colton Cowser	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	BAL		3B	Christian Encarnacion-Strand	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	BAL		SS	Gunnar Henderson	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	BAL		1B	Pete Alonso	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	BAL		2B	Jeremiah Jackson	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	BAL		LF	Christian Franklin	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	BAL		C	Carlos Narváez	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	NYY		RF	Amed Rosario	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	NYY		LF	Heliot Ramos	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	NYY		SS	George Lombard Jr.	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	NYY		3B	Anthony Volpe	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.333
current	NYY		DH	Ben Rice	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	NYY		2B	José Caballero	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	NYY		1B	Paul Goldschmidt	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	NYY		C	Ali Sánchez	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	NYY		CF	Spencer Jones	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	2	0.250
simulation	BAL	1	RF	Dylan Beavers	6	6	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	BAL	2	1B	Pete Alonso	6	4	1	0	0	1	0	2	2	0.250
simulation	BAL	3	SS	Gunnar Henderson	6	5	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	0.000
simulation	BAL	4	DH	Coby Mayo	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.200
simulation	BAL	5	3B	Christian Encarnacion-Strand	5	4	3	1	0	1	0	1	1	0.750
simulation	BAL	6	CF	Colton Cowser	5	5	2	1	1	1	2	0	2	0.400
simulation	BAL	7	2B	Jeremiah Jackson	5	4	2	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.500
simulation	BAL	8	LF	Christian Franklin	5	5	1	0	1	1	2	0	0	0.200
simulation	BAL	9	C	Carlos Narváez	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	NYY	1	1B	Paul Goldschmidt	6	6	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.167
simulation	NYY	2	DH	Ben Rice	6	6	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.167
simulation	NYY	3	LF	Heliot Ramos	6	5	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	0.000
simulation	NYY	4	RF	Amed Rosario	6	3	2	1	0	1	0	3	0	0.667
simulation	NYY	5	SS	George Lombard Jr.	6	6	1	0	0	1	0	0	3	0.167
simulation	NYY	6	CF	Spencer Jones	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.200
simulation	NYY	7	3B	Anthony Volpe	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0.000
simulation	NYY	8	C	Ali Sánchez	5	3	2	0	0	1	1	2	0	0.667
simulation	NYY	9	2B	José Caballero	5	5	3	1	1	1	4	0	0	0.600

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	BAL	1	Trevor Rogers	Starter	6.1	4	1	1	3	3	1	0	0	1.42	4.07	1.18
current	BAL	2	Rico Garcia	Setup Man	1.0	3	2	2	1	2	0	0	0	18.00	2.55	0.91
current	BAL	3	Yennier Cano	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.17	0.93
current	BAL	5	Andrew Kittredge	Closer	0.0	2	1	1	0	1	0	0	0		3.54	1.37
current	BAL	7	Albert Suárez	Reliever	0.0	2	2	2	1	3	1	0	0
current	NYY	1	Brendan Beck	Starter	3.0	2	1	1	4	7	1	0	0	3.00	8.22	1.57
current	NYY	2	David Bednar	Closer	1.1	2	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.50	1.01
current	NYY	3	Brent Headrick	Setup Man	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.09	1.19
current	NYY	4	John Schreiber	Middle Reliever	2.2	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	3.38	3.34	1.26
current	NYY	5	Paul Blackburn	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	1.61	1.07
current	NYY	6	Tim Hill	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.0	4	3	3	0	0	2	0	0		4.14	1.07
current	NYY	7	Ryan Yarbrough	Reliever	0.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0
simulation	BAL	1	Trevor Rogers	Starter	6.1	4	1	1	3	3	1	26	116	1.42	4.07	1.18
simulation	BAL	2	Andrew Kittredge	Closer	1.2	2	1	1	0	1	0	7	36	5.40	3.54	1.37
simulation	BAL	3	Rico Garcia	Setup Man	1.0	3	2	2	1	2	0	7	26	18.00	2.55	0.91
simulation	BAL	4	Yennier Cano	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	0	4	17	0.00	2.17	0.93
simulation	BAL	5	Albert Suárez	Reliever	1.0	2	2	2	1	3	1	6	23	18.00	4.12	1.25
simulation	NYY	1	Brendan Beck	Starter	3.0	2	1	1	4	7	1	15	72	3.00	8.22	1.57
simulation	NYY	2	David Bednar	Closer	1.1	2	0	0	0	2	0	6	23	0.00	2.50	1.01
simulation	NYY	3	Brent Headrick	Setup Man	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	16	0.00	2.09	1.19
simulation	NYY	4	Paul Blackburn	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	13	0.00	1.61	1.07
simulation	NYY	5	Tim Hill	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	4	3	3	0	0	2	7	25	27.00	4.14	1.07
simulation	NYY	6	John Schreiber	Middle Reliever	2.2	1	1	1	0	1	0	9	39	3.38	3.34	1.26
simulation	NYY	7	Ryan Yarbrough	Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	4	17	0.00	3.84	1.18

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
BAL	Trevor Rogers	Starter	6.1	1	4	3	3	26	116
BAL	Rico Garcia	Setup Man	1.0	2	3	1	2	7	26
BAL	Yennier Cano	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	1	2	4	17
BAL	Andrew Kittredge	Closer	1.2	1	2	0	1	7	36
BAL	Albert Suárez	Reliever	1.0	2	2	1	3	6	23
NYY	Brendan Beck	Starter	3.0	1	2	4	7	15	72
NYY	David Bednar	Closer	1.1	0	2	0	2	6	23
NYY	Brent Headrick	Setup Man	1.0	0	1	0	0	4	16
NYY	John Schreiber	Middle Reliever	2.2	1	1	0	1	9	39
NYY	Paul Blackburn	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	13
NYY	Tim Hill	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	3	4	0	0	7	25
NYY	Ryan Yarbrough	Reliever	1.0	0	0	1	1	4	17

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260925_BAL@NYY_2

20260925_BAL@NYY_2.json • 2026-09-25

BAL 5 - NYY 6

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 102INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BAL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYY pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=30; H: current=7, sim=3; 2B: current=1, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=3, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=10, sim=8).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BAL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Dylan Beavers: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Coby Mayo: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=2, RBI current=1 box=5, R current=0 box=1; Colton Cowser: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Christian Encarnacion-Strand: RBI current=1 box=0; Gunnar Henderson: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0; Pete Alonso: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jeremiah Jackson: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Christian Franklin: AB current=3 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=29; H: current=8, sim=5; 2B: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=10).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYY current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Amed Rosario: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Heliot Ramos: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; George Lombard Jr.: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Anthony Volpe: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Paul Goldschmidt: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; José Caballero: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Ben Rice: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Ali Sánchez: H current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	current:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting walks match NYY pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting home runs match NYY pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting hits match NYY pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting strikeouts match NYY pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BAL PA=36 matches NYY BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BAL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting walks match BAL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting home runs match BAL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting hits match BAL pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting strikeouts match BAL pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYY PA=33 matches BAL BF=33.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYY runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.592 -> 0.567 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.591659, 'sample_size': 523, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.543, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.56733, 'published_confidence': 0.511579, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BAL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BAL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BAL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BAL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYY current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYY current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYY current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYY hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.488.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.512.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.512.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.477/0.657.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: BAL 3, NYY 5.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: BAL 5 - NYY 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: NYY.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for NYY; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result; latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'BAL', 'opponent_team': 'NYY', 'h2h_net_margin': -9, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-20', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -5, 'winner': 'NYY'}, {'date': '2026-08-19', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'NYY'}, {'date': '2026-08-18', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'NYY'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260820', 'away': 'NYY', 'home': 'BAL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260820_NYY@BAL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260819', 'away': 'NYY', 'home': 'BAL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5195719999999999, 'artifact': '20260819_NYY@BAL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260818', 'away': 'NYY', 'home': 'BAL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'BAL', 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260818_NYY@BAL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'BAL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'NYY', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'output_opponent_team': 'BAL', 'simulation_score_winner': 'NYY', 'final_score_winner': 'NYY', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'BAL 5 - 6 NYY', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'BAL 5 - 6 NYY', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0398, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.482, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'NYY', 'model_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'NYY', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.8333, 'draw_majority_team': 'NYY', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.8719, 'winner': 'NYY', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-25.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260925_BAL@NYY_2.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: BAL@NYY.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 6.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 6.0, 'home_average_margin': 1.2, 'home_run_delta': 0.0346, 'away_run_delta': -0.0346, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -7.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.018551983898029433}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01783951877847235}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.017659134434098524}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.017550465774616608}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.017384522878491068}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.041155139496962714, '1': 0.062498132980194326, '2': 0.08633781905680889, '3': 0.10849910820496826, '4': 0.12403445070530135, '5': 0.12898807197997325, '6': 0.12202472549896735, '7': 0.10501157976060933, '8': 0.08220866751122571, '9': 0.05854490295737957, '10': 0.03792727463596294, '11': 0.022351426565576624, '12': 0.011982568541233692, '13': 0.005843669711271636, '14': 0.0025924623935643636}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.05585207386031204, '1': 0.0839870781512842, '2': 0.11265153479555338, '3': 0.13477620536254079, '4': 0.14382712768130856, '5': 0.1369051739670959, '6': 0.11623860432106896, '7': 0.08803034081850344, '8': 0.05946560627667778, '9': 0.03583032851591188, '10': 0.01925693659027727, '11': 0.009231559684503064, '12': 0.003947429974962577}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.15, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 1.195, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.272, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.8719}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'BAL 5 - 6 NYY', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'BAL 5 - 6 NYY', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0398, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.482, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'NYY', 'model_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'NYY', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.8333, 'draw_majority_team': 'NYY', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.8719, 'winner': 'NYY', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 135.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 155.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 135.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 155.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: BAL 5 - 6 NYY.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: BAL 5 - 6 NYY.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYY wins 6-5.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=NYY, simulation=NYY, published=NYY.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.512.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): NYY wins 6-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: NYY wins 5-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-6, final 5-6 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 11.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: NYY wins 6-5.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BAL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BAL wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYY recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYY wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	current:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting walks match NYY pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting home runs match NYY pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting hits match NYY pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting strikeouts match NYY pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BAL PA=36 matches NYY BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BAL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting walks match BAL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting home runs match BAL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting hits match BAL pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting strikeouts match BAL pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYY PA=33 matches BAL BF=33.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYY runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.592 -> 0.567 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.591659, 'sample_size': 523, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.543, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.56733, 'published_confidence': 0.511579, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BAL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BAL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BAL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BAL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYY current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYY current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYY current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYY hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.488.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.512.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.512.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.477/0.657.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: BAL 3, NYY 5.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: BAL 5 - NYY 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: NYY.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for NYY; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result; latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'BAL', 'opponent_team': 'NYY', 'h2h_net_margin': -9, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-20', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -5, 'winner': 'NYY'}, {'date': '2026-08-19', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'NYY'}, {'date': '2026-08-18', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'NYY'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260820', 'away': 'NYY', 'home': 'BAL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260820_NYY@BAL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260819', 'away': 'NYY', 'home': 'BAL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5195719999999999, 'artifact': '20260819_NYY@BAL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260818', 'away': 'NYY', 'home': 'BAL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'BAL', 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260818_NYY@BAL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'BAL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'NYY', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'output_opponent_team': 'BAL', 'simulation_score_winner': 'NYY', 'final_score_winner': 'NYY', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'BAL 5 - 6 NYY', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'BAL 5 - 6 NYY', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0398, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.482, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'NYY', 'model_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'NYY', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.8333, 'draw_majority_team': 'NYY', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.8719, 'winner': 'NYY', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-25.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260925_BAL@NYY_2.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: BAL@NYY.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 6.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 6.0, 'home_average_margin': 1.2, 'home_run_delta': 0.0346, 'away_run_delta': -0.0346, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -7.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.018551983898029433}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01783951877847235}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.017659134434098524}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.017550465774616608}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.017384522878491068}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.041155139496962714, '1': 0.062498132980194326, '2': 0.08633781905680889, '3': 0.10849910820496826, '4': 0.12403445070530135, '5': 0.12898807197997325, '6': 0.12202472549896735, '7': 0.10501157976060933, '8': 0.08220866751122571, '9': 0.05854490295737957, '10': 0.03792727463596294, '11': 0.022351426565576624, '12': 0.011982568541233692, '13': 0.005843669711271636, '14': 0.0025924623935643636}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.05585207386031204, '1': 0.0839870781512842, '2': 0.11265153479555338, '3': 0.13477620536254079, '4': 0.14382712768130856, '5': 0.1369051739670959, '6': 0.11623860432106896, '7': 0.08803034081850344, '8': 0.05946560627667778, '9': 0.03583032851591188, '10': 0.01925693659027727, '11': 0.009231559684503064, '12': 0.003947429974962577}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.15, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 1.195, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.272, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.8719}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'BAL 5 - 6 NYY', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'BAL 5 - 6 NYY', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0398, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.482, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'NYY', 'model_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'NYY', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.8333, 'draw_majority_team': 'NYY', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.8719, 'winner': 'NYY', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 135.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 155.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 135.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 155.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: BAL 5 - 6 NYY.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: BAL 5 - 6 NYY.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYY wins 6-5.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=NYY, simulation=NYY, published=NYY.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.512.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): NYY wins 6-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: NYY wins 5-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-6, final 5-6 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 11.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: NYY wins 6-5.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BAL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BAL wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYY recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYY wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BAL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYY pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=30; H: current=7, sim=3; 2B: current=1, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=3, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=10, sim=8).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BAL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Dylan Beavers: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Coby Mayo: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=2, RBI current=1 box=5, R current=0 box=1; Colton Cowser: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Christian Encarnacion-Strand: RBI current=1 box=0; Gunnar Henderson: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0; Pete Alonso: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jeremiah Jackson: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Christian Franklin: AB current=3 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=29; H: current=8, sim=5; 2B: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=10).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYY current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Amed Rosario: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Heliot Ramos: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; George Lombard Jr.: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Anthony Volpe: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Paul Goldschmidt: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; José Caballero: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Ben Rice: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Ali Sánchez: H current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	5.092527306142445	3.4948662360516636		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	3		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4	5	0.512	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail, season_quality_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5	5		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5	6		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5	6		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5	6		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
BAL	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	5	3
NYY	0	0	0	1	0	5	0	0	0	6	5

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	BAL	batting	32	7	1	0	1	4	3	3	10	0	0	0	0
current	BAL	pitching		5			1		6	4	10					8.0	6	0	0
current	NYY	batting	32	8	1	0	1	4	4	3	9	0	0	0	0
current	NYY	pitching		3			2		5	5	8					9.0	5	0	0
simulation	BAL	batting	30	3	0	0	2	5	5	5	8	0	1
simulation	BAL	pitching		5			1		6	4	10					8.0	6	33	135
simulation	NYY	batting	29	5	2	0	1	6	6	4	10	0	0
simulation	NYY	pitching		3			2		5	5	8					9.0	5	36	155

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	BAL		RF	Dylan Beavers	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	BAL		DH	Coby Mayo	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0.250
current	BAL		CF	Colton Cowser	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	BAL		3B	Christian Encarnacion-Strand	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	BAL		SS	Gunnar Henderson	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	BAL		1B	Pete Alonso	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	BAL		2B	Jeremiah Jackson	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	BAL		LF	Christian Franklin	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	BAL		C	Carlos Narváez	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	NYY		RF	Amed Rosario	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	NYY		LF	Heliot Ramos	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	NYY		SS	George Lombard Jr.	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	NYY		3B	Anthony Volpe	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.333
current	NYY		1B	Paul Goldschmidt	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	NYY		2B	José Caballero	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	NYY		DH	Ben Rice	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	NYY		C	Ali Sánchez	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	NYY		CF	Spencer Jones	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.250
simulation	BAL	1	RF	Dylan Beavers	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	BAL	2	1B	Pete Alonso	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	BAL	3	SS	Gunnar Henderson	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	BAL	4	DH	Coby Mayo	4	4	2	0	2	1	5	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	BAL	5	3B	Christian Encarnacion-Strand	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	BAL	6	CF	Colton Cowser	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	BAL	7	2B	Jeremiah Jackson	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	BAL	8	LF	Christian Franklin	4	2	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	0.000
simulation	BAL	9	C	Carlos Narváez	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	0.000
simulation	NYY	1	1B	Paul Goldschmidt	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	NYY	2	DH	Ben Rice	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	NYY	3	LF	Heliot Ramos	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	NYY	4	RF	Amed Rosario	4	3	2	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.667
simulation	NYY	5	SS	George Lombard Jr.	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	NYY	6	CF	Spencer Jones	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	NYY	7	3B	Anthony Volpe	3	3	1	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.333
simulation	NYY	8	C	Ali Sánchez	3	3	1	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	NYY	9	2B	José Caballero	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	BAL	1	Brandon Young	Starter	5.2	5	6	6	4	9	1	0	0	9.53	3.62	1.36
current	BAL	2	Rico Garcia	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.55	0.91
current	BAL	6	Andrew Kittredge	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.54	1.37
current	NYY	1	Brendan Beck	Starter	3.0	2	4	4	3	6	1	0	0	12.00	8.22	1.57
current	NYY	2	David Bednar	Closer	2.1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.50	1.01
current	NYY	3	Brent Headrick	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.09	1.19
current	NYY	5	Paul Blackburn	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	9.00	1.61	1.07
current	NYY	6	Tim Hill	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.2	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	4.14	1.07
simulation	BAL	1	Brandon Young	Starter	5.2	5	6	6	4	9	1	26	105	9.53	3.62	1.36
simulation	BAL	2	Andrew Kittredge	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	17	0.00	3.54	1.37
simulation	BAL	3	Rico Garcia	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	2.55	0.91
simulation	NYY	1	Brendan Beck	Starter	3.0	2	4	4	3	6	1	15	68	12.00	8.22	1.57
simulation	NYY	2	David Bednar	Closer	2.1	0	0	0	1	0	0	8	33	0.00	2.50	1.01
simulation	NYY	3	Brent Headrick	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	2.09	1.19
simulation	NYY	4	Paul Blackburn	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	1	4	16	9.00	1.61	1.07
simulation	NYY	5	Tim Hill	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.2	0	0	0	1	1	0	6	25	0.00	4.14	1.07

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
BAL	Brandon Young	Starter	5.2	6	5	4	9	26	105
BAL	Rico Garcia	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13
BAL	Andrew Kittredge	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	0	4	17
NYY	Brendan Beck	Starter	3.0	4	2	3	6	15	68
NYY	David Bednar	Closer	2.1	0	0	1	0	8	33
NYY	Brent Headrick	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13
NYY	Paul Blackburn	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	1	0	0	4	16
NYY	Tim Hill	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.2	0	0	1	1	6	25

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260925_CHC@BOS

20260925_CHC@BOS.json • 2026-09-25

CHC 5 - BOS 4

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BOS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=33; H: current=7, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=7, sim=12).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BOS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Mickey Gasper: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Adley Rutschman: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Roman Anthony: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Jarren Duran: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Andruw Monasterio: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Isiah Kiner-Falefa: H current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Nick Sogard: AB current=4 box=3, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Wilyer Abreu: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=35; 2B: current=2, sim=4; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=7, sim=9; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Alex Bregman: SO current=0 box=1; Tyrone Taylor: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Matt Shaw: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Seiya Suzuki: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Pete Crow-Armstrong: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Nico Hoerner: 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Michael Busch: RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Dansby Swanson: RBI current=0 box=2, BB current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	current:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting walks match CHC pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting home runs match CHC pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting hits match CHC pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting strikeouts match CHC pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BOS PA=37 matches CHC BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BOS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting walks match BOS pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting home runs match BOS pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting hits match BOS pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting strikeouts match BOS pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHC PA=41 matches BOS BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.531 -> 0.537 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.530624, 'sample_size': 523, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.543, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.536812, 'published_confidence': 0.505, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BOS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BOS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BOS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BOS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.505.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.505.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.495.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.566/0.762.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CHC 8, BOS 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CHC 5 - BOS 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CHC.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for CHC.	{'winner_confidence': 0.505, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-25.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260925_CHC@BOS.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CHC@BOS.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': False, 'sample_size': 0, 'home_net_margin': 0.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0, 'away_run_delta': 0.0, 'evidence': []}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.021230142237254074}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02011890447842574}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.020039303136559848}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.020020392152814363}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.019918606319563135}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.05820795882516401, '1': 0.08738935584844953, '2': 0.1166519962444133, '3': 0.13844691450986574, '4': 0.14609382387123865, '5': 0.13706857593749114, '6': 0.11434084938081145, '7': 0.08480518315224397, '8': 0.05592433748529966, '9': 0.03278964904860192, '10': 0.01709346700368257, '11': 0.00792284239145242, '12': 0.003265046301285529}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.05737678574731859, '1': 0.08619029009830853, '2': 0.11524706043649223, '3': 0.13716735318134804, '4': 0.14531854718215526, '5': 0.1370379090799865, '6': 0.11502964699541172, '7': 0.0859465083441543, '8': 0.05716050746949844, '9': 0.033838671243640116, '10': 0.01783117300273069, '11': 0.00836365121795924, '12': 0.003491896000996316}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.15, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.4497, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.348, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.4141}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CHC 5 - 4 BOS', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CHC 5 - 4 BOS', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0158, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.348, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'CHC', 'model_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 4, 'published_winner': 'CHC', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.25, 'draw_majority_team': 'BOS', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.4141, 'winner': 'CHC', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 182.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 173.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 173.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 182.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 10 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CHC 5 - 4 BOS.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CHC 5 - 4 BOS.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CHC wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=CHC, simulation=CHC, published=CHC.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.505.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): CHC wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CHC wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CHC wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BOS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BOS wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHC wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	current:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting walks match CHC pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting home runs match CHC pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting hits match CHC pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting strikeouts match CHC pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BOS PA=37 matches CHC BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BOS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting walks match BOS pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting home runs match BOS pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting hits match BOS pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting strikeouts match BOS pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHC PA=41 matches BOS BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.531 -> 0.537 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.530624, 'sample_size': 523, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.543, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.536812, 'published_confidence': 0.505, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BOS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BOS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BOS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BOS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.505.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.505.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.495.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.566/0.762.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CHC 8, BOS 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CHC 5 - BOS 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CHC.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for CHC.	{'winner_confidence': 0.505, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-25.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260925_CHC@BOS.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CHC@BOS.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': False, 'sample_size': 0, 'home_net_margin': 0.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0, 'away_run_delta': 0.0, 'evidence': []}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.021230142237254074}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02011890447842574}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.020039303136559848}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.020020392152814363}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.019918606319563135}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.05820795882516401, '1': 0.08738935584844953, '2': 0.1166519962444133, '3': 0.13844691450986574, '4': 0.14609382387123865, '5': 0.13706857593749114, '6': 0.11434084938081145, '7': 0.08480518315224397, '8': 0.05592433748529966, '9': 0.03278964904860192, '10': 0.01709346700368257, '11': 0.00792284239145242, '12': 0.003265046301285529}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.05737678574731859, '1': 0.08619029009830853, '2': 0.11524706043649223, '3': 0.13716735318134804, '4': 0.14531854718215526, '5': 0.1370379090799865, '6': 0.11502964699541172, '7': 0.0859465083441543, '8': 0.05716050746949844, '9': 0.033838671243640116, '10': 0.01783117300273069, '11': 0.00836365121795924, '12': 0.003491896000996316}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.15, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.4497, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.348, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.4141}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CHC 5 - 4 BOS', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CHC 5 - 4 BOS', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0158, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.348, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'CHC', 'model_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 4, 'published_winner': 'CHC', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.25, 'draw_majority_team': 'BOS', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.4141, 'winner': 'CHC', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 182.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 173.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 173.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 182.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 10 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CHC 5 - 4 BOS.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CHC 5 - 4 BOS.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CHC wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=CHC, simulation=CHC, published=CHC.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.505.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): CHC wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CHC wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CHC wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BOS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BOS wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHC wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BOS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=33; H: current=7, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=7, sim=12).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BOS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Mickey Gasper: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Adley Rutschman: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Roman Anthony: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Jarren Duran: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Andruw Monasterio: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Isiah Kiner-Falefa: H current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Nick Sogard: AB current=4 box=3, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Wilyer Abreu: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=35; 2B: current=2, sim=4; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=7, sim=9; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Alex Bregman: SO current=0 box=1; Tyrone Taylor: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Matt Shaw: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Seiya Suzuki: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Pete Crow-Armstrong: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Nico Hoerner: 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Michael Busch: RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Dansby Swanson: RBI current=0 box=2, BB current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.057087310443244	4.794800530805316		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	5		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5	4	0.505	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5	4		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CHC	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	1	1	5	8
BOS	0	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	1	4	6

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	CHC	batting	31	8	2	0	1	4	5	3	7	0	0	0	0
current	CHC	pitching		6			0		4	4	12					9.0	4	0	0
current	BOS	batting	31	7	2	0	1	4	4	3	7	0	0	0	0
current	BOS	pitching		8			0		5	5	9					9.0	5	0	0
simulation	CHC	batting	35	8	4	0	0	5	5	5	9	0	1
simulation	CHC	pitching		6			0		4	4	12					9.0	4	37	182
simulation	BOS	batting	33	6	1	0	0	4	4	4	12	0	0
simulation	BOS	pitching		8			0		5	5	9					9.0	5	41	173

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	CHC		DH	Alex Bregman	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.250
current	CHC		LF	Tyrone Taylor	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	CHC		3B	Matt Shaw	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	CHC		RF	Seiya Suzuki	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	CHC		CF	Pete Crow-Armstrong	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	CHC		2B	Nico Hoerner	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	CHC		1B	Michael Busch	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	CHC		SS	Dansby Swanson	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	CHC		C	Miguel Amaya	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	BOS		C	Mickey Gasper	0	3	1	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	BOS		DH	Adley Rutschman	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	BOS		LF	Roman Anthony	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	BOS		CF	Jarren Duran	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	BOS		1B	Andruw Monasterio	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	BOS		SS	Isiah Kiner-Falefa	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
current	BOS		2B	Nick Sogard	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	BOS		RF	Wilyer Abreu	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	BOS		3B	Caleb Durbin	0	3	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.333
simulation	CHC	1	CF	Pete Crow-Armstrong	5	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	1	0.333
simulation	CHC	2	RF	Seiya Suzuki	5	5	3	2	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.600
simulation	CHC	3	DH	Alex Bregman	5	4	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
simulation	CHC	4	LF	Tyrone Taylor	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	CHC	5	2B	Nico Hoerner	5	4	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
simulation	CHC	6	3B	Matt Shaw	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	CHC	7	1B	Michael Busch	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	CHC	8	SS	Dansby Swanson	4	3	1	0	0	1	2	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	CHC	9	C	Miguel Amaya	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	BOS	1	LF	Roman Anthony	5	5	1	0	0	1	2	0	2	0	0.200
simulation	BOS	2	C	Mickey Gasper	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	BOS	3	DH	Adley Rutschman	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	BOS	4	RF	Wilyer Abreu	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	BOS	5	3B	Caleb Durbin	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	0.000
simulation	BOS	6	2B	Nick Sogard	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	BOS	7	CF	Jarren Duran	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	BOS	8	1B	Andruw Monasterio	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	BOS	9	SS	Isiah Kiner-Falefa	4	3	2	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	0.667

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	CHC	1	Clay Holmes	Starter	5.2	2	2	2	3	7	0	0	3.18	3.25	1.16
current	CHC	2	Daniel Palencia	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.34	1.11
current	CHC	3	Jacob Webb	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0.00	3.41	1.27
current	CHC	4	Ryan Zeferjahn	Setup Man	1.0	2	1	1	0	2	0	0	9.00	3.88	1.28
current	CHC	5	Caleb Thielbar	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.1	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	27.00	4.81	1.27
current	BOS	1	Alec Gamboa	Starter	5.0	3	2	2	4	4	0	0	3.60	1.16	1.06
current	BOS	2	Aroldis Chapman	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.00	1.39	1.05
current	BOS	3	Erik Miller	Setup Man	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	0	0	0.00	2.81	1.32
current	BOS	4	Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	9.00	1.72	0.90
current	BOS	5	Greg Weissert	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	2	2	0	1	0	0	18.00	3.19	1.18
simulation	CHC	1	Clay Holmes	Starter	5.2	2	2	2	3	7	22	101	3.18	3.25	1.16
simulation	CHC	2	Jacob Webb	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	3	23	0.00	3.41	1.27
simulation	CHC	3	Ryan Zeferjahn	Setup Man	1.0	2	1	1	0	2	5	19	9.00	3.88	1.28
simulation	CHC	4	Daniel Palencia	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	3	25	0.00	3.34	1.11
simulation	CHC	5	Caleb Thielbar	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.1	2	1	1	1	1	4	14	27.00	4.81	1.27
simulation	BOS	1	Alec Gamboa	Starter	5.0	3	2	2	4	4	23	100	3.60	1.16	1.06
simulation	BOS	2	Aroldis Chapman	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	4	19	0.00	1.39	1.05
simulation	BOS	3	Erik Miller	Setup Man	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	4	16	0.00	2.81	1.32
simulation	BOS	4	Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	5	19	9.00	1.72	0.90
simulation	BOS	5	Greg Weissert	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	2	2	0	1	5	19	18.00	3.19	1.18

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
CHC	Clay Holmes	Starter	5.2	2	2	3	7	22	101
CHC	Daniel Palencia	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	25
CHC	Jacob Webb	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	23
CHC	Ryan Zeferjahn	Setup Man	1.0	1	2	0	2	5	19
CHC	Caleb Thielbar	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.1	1	2	1	1	4	14
BOS	Alec Gamboa	Starter	5.0	2	3	4	4	23	100
BOS	Aroldis Chapman	Closer	1.0	0	0	1	1	4	19
BOS	Erik Miller	Setup Man	1.0	0	1	0	3	4	16
BOS	Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	2	0	0	5	19
BOS	Greg Weissert	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	2	0	1	5	19

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260925_CHC@BOS_2

20260925_CHC@BOS_2.json • 2026-09-25

CHC 3 - BOS 4

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 8

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BOS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=30; H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=8; SO: current=7, sim=8).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BOS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Adley Rutschman: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Mickey Gasper: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Roman Anthony: H current=1 box=0; Jarren Duran: AB current=3 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Andruw Monasterio: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Isiah Kiner-Falefa: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Wilyer Abreu: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Nick Sogard: H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (BB: current=6, sim=8).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=5; 2B: current=2, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=5, sim=3; SO: current=7, sim=5; SF: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Alex Bregman: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Matt Shaw: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Pete Crow-Armstrong: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Seiya Suzuki: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0; Tyrone Taylor: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SF current=0 box=1; Michael Busch: AB current=3 box=4, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Miguel Amaya: AB current=3 box=2, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Dansby Swanson: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	current:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting walks match CHC pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting home runs match CHC pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting hits match CHC pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting strikeouts match CHC pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BOS PA=38 matches CHC BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BOS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting walks match BOS pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting home runs match BOS pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting hits match BOS pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting strikeouts match BOS pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHC PA=35 matches BOS BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.590 -> 0.579 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.590453, 'sample_size': 661, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5673, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.578877, 'published_confidence': 0.557003, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BOS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BOS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BOS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BOS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.443.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.557.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.557.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.692/0.900.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CHC 5, BOS 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CHC 3 - BOS 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: BOS.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for BOS.	{'winner_confidence': 0.5570027, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-25.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260925_CHC@BOS_2.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CHC@BOS.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': False, 'sample_size': 0, 'home_net_margin': 0.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0, 'away_run_delta': 0.0, 'evidence': []}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.022883902309619373}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.022300440031448186}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.022005519226039497}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02144445275205058}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.021274668160883685}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.05419078155210037, '1': 0.08158117768957553, '2': 0.10979656948585376, '3': 0.13210577908836746, '4': 0.14209837353668922, '5': 0.13664402375709, '6': 0.11746985217649279, '7': 0.09028101791930182, '8': 0.06202984797922113, '9': 0.03810125064929383, '10': 0.02092242360250402, '11': 0.010271148184195618, '12': 0.004507754379314493}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.07500342124696387, '1': 0.11133183115902234, '2': 0.1436280685609426, '3': 0.1610426758594168, '4': 0.15693663112681794, '5': 0.13291970319481847, '6': 0.09784442599783737, '7': 0.06259858357622866, '8': 0.034807642751832756, '9': 0.016821565426368458, '10': 0.007065451099750694}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.15, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.4497, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.348, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.4141}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CHC 3 - 4 BOS', 'winner': 'BOS'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CHC 3 - 4 BOS', 'winner': 'BOS'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0657, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.348, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'BOS', 'model_winner': 'BOS', 'simulation_winner': 'BOS', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'BOS', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'BOS', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.4141, 'winner': 'BOS', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 188.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 139.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 139.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 188.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CHC 3 - 4 BOS.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CHC 3 - 4 BOS.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: BOS wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=BOS, simulation=BOS, published=BOS.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.557.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): BOS wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: BOS wins 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: BOS wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BOS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BOS wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHC wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	current:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting walks match CHC pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting home runs match CHC pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting hits match CHC pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting strikeouts match CHC pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BOS PA=38 matches CHC BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BOS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting walks match BOS pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting home runs match BOS pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting hits match BOS pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting strikeouts match BOS pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHC PA=35 matches BOS BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.590 -> 0.579 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.590453, 'sample_size': 661, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5673, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.578877, 'published_confidence': 0.557003, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BOS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BOS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BOS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BOS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.443.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.557.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.557.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.692/0.900.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CHC 5, BOS 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CHC 3 - BOS 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: BOS.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for BOS.	{'winner_confidence': 0.5570027, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-25.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260925_CHC@BOS_2.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CHC@BOS.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': False, 'sample_size': 0, 'home_net_margin': 0.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0, 'away_run_delta': 0.0, 'evidence': []}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.022883902309619373}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.022300440031448186}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.022005519226039497}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02144445275205058}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.021274668160883685}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.05419078155210037, '1': 0.08158117768957553, '2': 0.10979656948585376, '3': 0.13210577908836746, '4': 0.14209837353668922, '5': 0.13664402375709, '6': 0.11746985217649279, '7': 0.09028101791930182, '8': 0.06202984797922113, '9': 0.03810125064929383, '10': 0.02092242360250402, '11': 0.010271148184195618, '12': 0.004507754379314493}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.07500342124696387, '1': 0.11133183115902234, '2': 0.1436280685609426, '3': 0.1610426758594168, '4': 0.15693663112681794, '5': 0.13291970319481847, '6': 0.09784442599783737, '7': 0.06259858357622866, '8': 0.034807642751832756, '9': 0.016821565426368458, '10': 0.007065451099750694}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.15, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.4497, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.348, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.4141}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CHC 3 - 4 BOS', 'winner': 'BOS'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CHC 3 - 4 BOS', 'winner': 'BOS'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0657, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.348, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'BOS', 'model_winner': 'BOS', 'simulation_winner': 'BOS', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'BOS', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'BOS', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.4141, 'winner': 'BOS', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 188.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 139.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 139.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 188.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CHC 3 - 4 BOS.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CHC 3 - 4 BOS.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: BOS wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=BOS, simulation=BOS, published=BOS.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.557.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): BOS wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: BOS wins 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: BOS wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BOS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BOS wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHC wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BOS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=30; H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=8; SO: current=7, sim=8).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BOS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Adley Rutschman: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Mickey Gasper: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Roman Anthony: H current=1 box=0; Jarren Duran: AB current=3 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Andruw Monasterio: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Isiah Kiner-Falefa: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Wilyer Abreu: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Nick Sogard: H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (BB: current=6, sim=8).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=5; 2B: current=2, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=5, sim=3; SO: current=7, sim=5; SF: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Alex Bregman: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Matt Shaw: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Pete Crow-Armstrong: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Seiya Suzuki: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0; Tyrone Taylor: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SF current=0 box=1; Michael Busch: AB current=3 box=4, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Miguel Amaya: AB current=3 box=2, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Dansby Swanson: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.424909965439013	4.608170197934953		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	5		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3	4	0.557	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3	4		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CHC	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	3	5
BOS	0	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	6

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	CHC	batting	31	8	2	0	1	4	5	3	7	0	0	0	0
current	CHC	pitching		6			2		4	6	8					8.0	4	0	0
current	BOS	batting	31	8	2	0	1	4	4	3	7	0	0	0	0
current	BOS	pitching		5			1		3	3	5					9.0	3	0	0
simulation	CHC	batting	31	5	0	0	1	3	3	3	5	1	0
simulation	CHC	pitching		6			2		4	8	8					8.0	4	38	188
simulation	BOS	batting	30	6	0	0	2	4	4	8	8	0	0
simulation	BOS	pitching		5			1		3	3	5					9.0	3	35	139

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	CHC		DH	Alex Bregman	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.250
current	CHC		2B	Nico Hoerner	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	CHC		3B	Matt Shaw	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	CHC		CF	Pete Crow-Armstrong	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	CHC		RF	Seiya Suzuki	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	CHC		LF	Tyrone Taylor	0	3	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	0.333
current	CHC		1B	Michael Busch	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.333
current	CHC		C	Miguel Amaya	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	CHC		SS	Dansby Swanson	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.333
current	BOS		DH	Adley Rutschman	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	BOS		C	Mickey Gasper	0	3	1	0	1	1	0	1	1	0.333
current	BOS		LF	Roman Anthony	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.250
current	BOS		CF	Jarren Duran	0	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.000
current	BOS		1B	Andruw Monasterio	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.333
current	BOS		SS	Isiah Kiner-Falefa	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	BOS		RF	Wilyer Abreu	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	BOS		2B	Nick Sogard	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.250
current	BOS		3B	Caleb Durbin	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.333
simulation	CHC	1	CF	Pete Crow-Armstrong	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	CHC	2	RF	Seiya Suzuki	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.333
simulation	CHC	3	DH	Alex Bregman	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	CHC	4	LF	Tyrone Taylor	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.000
simulation	CHC	5	2B	Nico Hoerner	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	CHC	6	3B	Matt Shaw	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	CHC	7	1B	Michael Busch	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	CHC	8	SS	Dansby Swanson	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	2	0.250
simulation	CHC	9	C	Miguel Amaya	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	BOS	1	LF	Roman Anthony	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	BOS	2	C	Mickey Gasper	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	BOS	3	DH	Adley Rutschman	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.333
simulation	BOS	4	RF	Wilyer Abreu	4	4	1	0	1	1	2	0	1	0.250
simulation	BOS	5	3B	Caleb Durbin	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	BOS	6	2B	Nick Sogard	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	BOS	7	CF	Jarren Duran	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	0.000
simulation	BOS	8	1B	Andruw Monasterio	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.333
simulation	BOS	9	SS	Isiah Kiner-Falefa	4	3	2	0	1	1	2	1	0	0.667

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	CHC	1	David Peterson	Starter	5.0	5	4	4	4	6	2	0	0	7.20	4.96	1.51
current	CHC	2	Daniel Palencia	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.34	1.11
current	CHC	3	Jacob Webb	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.41	1.27
current	CHC	4	Ryan Zeferjahn	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.88	1.28
current	BOS	1	Brayan Bello	Starter	5.0	1	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	1.80	4.49	1.37
current	BOS	2	Aroldis Chapman	Closer	1.0	3	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	18.00	1.39	1.05
current	BOS	3	Erik Miller	Setup Man	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.81	1.32
current	BOS	4	Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.72	0.90
current	BOS	5	Greg Weissert	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.19	1.18
simulation	CHC	1	David Peterson	Starter	5.0	5	4	4	4	6	2	24	106	7.20	4.96	1.51
simulation	CHC	2	Jacob Webb	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	25	0.00	3.41	1.27
simulation	CHC	3	Ryan Zeferjahn	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	4	17	0.00	3.88	1.28
simulation	CHC	4	Daniel Palencia	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	0	0	3	0	0	7	40	0.00	3.34	1.11
simulation	BOS	1	Brayan Bello	Starter	5.0	1	1	1	1	4	1	17	70	1.80	4.49	1.37
simulation	BOS	2	Aroldis Chapman	Closer	1.0	3	2	2	1	0	0	7	23	18.00	1.39	1.05
simulation	BOS	3	Erik Miller	Setup Man	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	4	16	0.00	2.81	1.32
simulation	BOS	4	Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	17	0.00	1.72	0.90
simulation	BOS	5	Greg Weissert	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	3.19	1.18

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
CHC	David Peterson	Starter	5.0	4	5	4	6	24	106
CHC	Daniel Palencia	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	1	3	0	7	40
CHC	Jacob Webb	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	25
CHC	Ryan Zeferjahn	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	1	1	4	17
BOS	Brayan Bello	Starter	5.0	1	1	1	4	17	70
BOS	Aroldis Chapman	Closer	1.0	2	3	1	0	7	23
BOS	Erik Miller	Setup Man	1.0	0	1	0	1	4	16
BOS	Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	1	0	4	17
BOS	Greg Weissert	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	1	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260925_CIN@TOR

20260925_CIN@TOR.json • 2026-09-25

CIN 3 - TOR 5

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 102INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TOR pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=31; H: current=7, sim=4; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=2; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Elly De La Cruz: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=2; Eugenio Suárez: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Héctor Rodríguez: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Juan Brito: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Carlos Jorge: R current=0 box=1; Oswaldo Cabrera: SO current=1 box=0; Sal Stewart: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; JJ Bleday: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=32; H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=2, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=3, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=6, sim=7; SF: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TOR current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Alejandro Kirk: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SF current=0 box=1; Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Charles McAdoo: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; George Springer: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Ernie Clement: 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Kazuma Okamoto: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Nathan Lukes: 2B current=0 box=1; Davis Schneider: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TOR	BATTING_REALISM	current:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TOR	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TOR	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TOR	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting walks match TOR pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting home runs match TOR pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting hits match TOR pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting strikeouts match TOR pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CIN PA=34 matches TOR BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting walks match CIN pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting home runs match CIN pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting hits match CIN pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting strikeouts match CIN pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TOR PA=35 matches CIN BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TOR runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.672 -> 0.612 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.6725, 'sample_size': 225, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5511, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.6118, 'published_confidence': 0.635849, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TOR current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TOR current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TOR current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TOR hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.364.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.636.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.636.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.477/0.657.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CIN 4, TOR 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CIN 3 - TOR 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: TOR.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for TOR.	{'winner_confidence': 0.635849, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-25.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260925_CIN@TOR.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CIN@TOR.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': False, 'sample_size': 0, 'home_net_margin': 0.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0, 'away_run_delta': 0.0, 'evidence': []}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.021057636997841012}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02048348081402669}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.020447541074851753}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.019890019727459966}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.019684632736563075}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.04275744034250759, '1': 0.06486100892209408, '2': 0.08931097640572552, '3': 0.11162850563146455, '4': 0.12664688734640348, '5': 0.13042566687527066, '6': 0.12192162644480244, '7': 0.10345406623461174, '8': 0.0796826041023271, '9': 0.05570941634229516, '10': 0.03535434813714377, '11': 0.02036602140340215, '12': 0.010649241932704884, '13': 0.005054524748681464, '14': 0.0021776651305653602}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.075370497144585, '1': 0.11184766246090991, '2': 0.144181201975304, '3': 0.16145316717436423, '4': 0.15705099544260379, '5': 0.13270613951435695, '6': 0.0974086523832755, '7': 0.06210981734874217, '8': 0.034401641565154926, '9': 0.016552144861235935, '10': 0.006918080129467573}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.15, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.7327, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.02, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.4693}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'CIN 3 - 5 TOR', 'winner': 'TOR'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'CIN 3 - 5 TOR', 'winner': 'TOR'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0907, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.02, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'TOR', 'model_winner': 'TOR', 'simulation_winner': 'TOR', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'TOR', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'TOR', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.4693, 'winner': 'TOR', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 136.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 142.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 136.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TOR	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TOR pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TOR	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TOR pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 142.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 7 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TOR	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TOR	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TOR includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TOR	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TOR includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CIN 3 - 5 TOR.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CIN 3 - 5 TOR.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: TOR wins 5-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=TOR, simulation=TOR, published=TOR.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.636.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): TOR wins 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: TOR wins 3-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-5, final 3-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: TOR wins 5-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CIN wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TOR	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TOR recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TOR	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TOR wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TOR	BATTING_REALISM	current:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TOR	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TOR	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TOR	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting walks match TOR pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting home runs match TOR pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting hits match TOR pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting strikeouts match TOR pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CIN PA=34 matches TOR BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting walks match CIN pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting home runs match CIN pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting hits match CIN pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting strikeouts match CIN pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TOR PA=35 matches CIN BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TOR runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.672 -> 0.612 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.6725, 'sample_size': 225, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5511, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.6118, 'published_confidence': 0.635849, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TOR current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TOR current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TOR current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TOR hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.364.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.636.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.636.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.477/0.657.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CIN 4, TOR 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CIN 3 - TOR 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: TOR.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for TOR.	{'winner_confidence': 0.635849, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-25.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260925_CIN@TOR.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CIN@TOR.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': False, 'sample_size': 0, 'home_net_margin': 0.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0, 'away_run_delta': 0.0, 'evidence': []}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.021057636997841012}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02048348081402669}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.020447541074851753}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.019890019727459966}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.019684632736563075}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.04275744034250759, '1': 0.06486100892209408, '2': 0.08931097640572552, '3': 0.11162850563146455, '4': 0.12664688734640348, '5': 0.13042566687527066, '6': 0.12192162644480244, '7': 0.10345406623461174, '8': 0.0796826041023271, '9': 0.05570941634229516, '10': 0.03535434813714377, '11': 0.02036602140340215, '12': 0.010649241932704884, '13': 0.005054524748681464, '14': 0.0021776651305653602}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.075370497144585, '1': 0.11184766246090991, '2': 0.144181201975304, '3': 0.16145316717436423, '4': 0.15705099544260379, '5': 0.13270613951435695, '6': 0.0974086523832755, '7': 0.06210981734874217, '8': 0.034401641565154926, '9': 0.016552144861235935, '10': 0.006918080129467573}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.15, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.7327, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.02, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.4693}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'CIN 3 - 5 TOR', 'winner': 'TOR'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'CIN 3 - 5 TOR', 'winner': 'TOR'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0907, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.02, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'TOR', 'model_winner': 'TOR', 'simulation_winner': 'TOR', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'TOR', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'TOR', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.4693, 'winner': 'TOR', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 136.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 142.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 136.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TOR	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TOR pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TOR	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TOR pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 142.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 7 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TOR	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TOR	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TOR includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TOR	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TOR includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CIN 3 - 5 TOR.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CIN 3 - 5 TOR.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: TOR wins 5-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=TOR, simulation=TOR, published=TOR.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.636.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): TOR wins 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: TOR wins 3-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-5, final 3-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: TOR wins 5-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CIN wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TOR	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TOR recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TOR	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TOR wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TOR pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=31; H: current=7, sim=4; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=2; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Elly De La Cruz: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=2; Eugenio Suárez: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Héctor Rodríguez: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Juan Brito: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Carlos Jorge: R current=0 box=1; Oswaldo Cabrera: SO current=1 box=0; Sal Stewart: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; JJ Bleday: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=32; H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=2, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=3, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=6, sim=7; SF: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TOR current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Alejandro Kirk: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SF current=0 box=1; Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Charles McAdoo: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; George Springer: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Ernie Clement: 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Kazuma Okamoto: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Nathan Lukes: 2B current=0 box=1; Davis Schneider: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	3.7825489954943703	5.740196267817406		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	6		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3	5	0.636	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	3	5		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3	5		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3	5		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CIN	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	3	4
TOR	0	2	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	5	9

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	CIN	batting	32	7	1	0	1	4	4	3	9	0	0	0	0
current	CIN	pitching		9			1		5	2	7					8.0	5	0	0
current	TOR	batting	33	8	2	0	1	4	3	3	6	0	0	0	0
current	TOR	pitching		4			1		3	2	9					9.0	3	0	0
simulation	CIN	batting	31	4	1	0	1	3	3	2	9	0	1
simulation	CIN	pitching		9			1		5	2	7					8.0	5	35	136
simulation	TOR	batting	32	9	1	0	1	5	5	2	7	1	0
simulation	TOR	pitching		4			1		3	2	9					9.0	3	34	142

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	CIN		DH	Elly De La Cruz	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	CIN		3B	Eugenio Suárez	0	3	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.000
current	CIN		RF	Héctor Rodríguez	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	CIN		2B	Juan Brito	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	CIN		CF	Carlos Jorge	0	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	CIN		SS	Oswaldo Cabrera	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	CIN		1B	Sal Stewart	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	CIN		LF	JJ Bleday	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	CIN		C	Jose Trevino	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	TOR		C	Alejandro Kirk	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	TOR		1B	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	TOR		2B	Charles McAdoo	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	TOR		DH	George Springer	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	TOR		SS	Ernie Clement	0	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	TOR		3B	Kazuma Okamoto	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	TOR		RF	Nathan Lukes	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	TOR		LF	Davis Schneider	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
current	TOR		CF	Myles Straw	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
simulation	CIN	1	CF	Carlos Jorge	4	4	1	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	CIN	2	DH	Elly De La Cruz	4	3	1	0	0	1	2	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	CIN	3	1B	Sal Stewart	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	CIN	4	LF	JJ Bleday	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0.000
simulation	CIN	5	3B	Eugenio Suárez	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	CIN	6	RF	Héctor Rodríguez	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	CIN	7	2B	Juan Brito	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	CIN	8	C	Jose Trevino	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
simulation	CIN	9	SS	Oswaldo Cabrera	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	TOR	1	2B	Charles McAdoo	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	TOR	2	C	Alejandro Kirk	4	2	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	TOR	3	1B	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	TOR	4	DH	George Springer	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	TOR	5	3B	Kazuma Okamoto	4	4	2	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	TOR	6	RF	Nathan Lukes	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	TOR	7	LF	Davis Schneider	4	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	TOR	8	SS	Ernie Clement	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	TOR	9	CF	Myles Straw	3	3	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.333

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	CIN	1	Nick Lodolo	Starter	5.0	4	2	2	1	5	1	0	0	3.60	5.04	1.47
current	CIN	3	Emilio Pagán	Closer	2.0	4	3	3	1	2	0	0	0	13.50	3.38	1.03
current	CIN	5	Luis Mey	Setup Man	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	5.79	1.65
current	TOR	1	José Soriano	Starter	6.0	4	3	3	1	6	1	0	0	4.50	3.72	1.26
current	TOR	2	Louis Varland	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.29	1.01
current	TOR	3	Spencer Miles	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.57	1.08
current	TOR	4	Tyler Rogers	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.80	1.17
simulation	CIN	1	Nick Lodolo	Starter	5.0	4	2	2	1	5	1	20	79	3.60	5.04	1.47
simulation	CIN	2	Emilio Pagán	Closer	2.0	4	3	3	1	2	0	11	41	13.50	3.38	1.03
simulation	CIN	3	Luis Mey	Setup Man	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	16	0.00	5.79	1.65
simulation	TOR	1	José Soriano	Starter	6.0	4	3	3	1	6	1	24	99	4.50	3.72	1.26
simulation	TOR	2	Louis Varland	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	1.29	1.01
simulation	TOR	3	Tyler Rogers	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	4	17	0.00	1.80	1.17
simulation	TOR	4	Spencer Miles	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	2.57	1.08

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
CIN	Nick Lodolo	Starter	5.0	2	4	1	5	20	79
CIN	Emilio Pagán	Closer	2.0	3	4	1	2	11	41
CIN	Luis Mey	Setup Man	1.0	0	1	0	0	4	16
TOR	José Soriano	Starter	6.0	3	4	1	6	24	99
TOR	Louis Varland	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13
TOR	Spencer Miles	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13
TOR	Tyler Rogers	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	1	1	4	17

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260925_CLE@KC

20260925_CLE@KC.json • 2026-09-25

CLE 4 - KC 3

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CLE pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	KC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=35; 2B: current=2, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=6, sim=10).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CLE current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Chase DeLauter: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Steven Kwan: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; David Fry: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Jo Adell: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Angel Martínez: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; José Ramírez: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3; Travis Bazzana: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Austin Hedges: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	KC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Carter Jensen: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Maikel Garcia: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1; Jac Caglianone: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Bobby Witt Jr.: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; John Rave: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Vinnie Pasquantino: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Michael Massey: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Salvador Perez: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	current:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	KC	BATTING_REALISM	current:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	KC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting walks match KC pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting home runs match KC pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting hits match KC pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting strikeouts match KC pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CLE PA=40 matches KC BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CLE runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:KC batting walks match CLE pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:KC batting home runs match CLE pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:KC batting hits match CLE pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:KC batting strikeouts match CLE pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:KC PA=34 matches CLE BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:KC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.690 -> 0.628 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.689611, 'sample_size': 664, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5663, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.627955, 'published_confidence': 0.56, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CLE current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CLE current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CLE current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CLE hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	KC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	KC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	KC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	KC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.440.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.692/0.900.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CLE 8, KC 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CLE 4 - KC 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CLE.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for CLE; cap=0.56, reasons=predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'opponent_team': 'KC', 'h2h_net_margin': 2, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-30', 'predicted_team_runs': 11, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 10, 'winner': 'CLE'}, {'date': '2026-08-29', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 8, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -5, 'winner': 'KC'}, {'date': '2026-08-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'KC'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260830', 'away': 'KC', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'actual_winner': 'CLE', 'actual_margin': 10, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260830_KC@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260829', 'away': 'KC', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'KC', 'actual_winner': 'KC', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.551806, 'artifact': '20260829_KC@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260828', 'away': 'KC', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'actual_winner': 'KC', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.573839, 'artifact': '20260828_KC@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'CLE', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'KC', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'output_opponent_team': 'KC', 'simulation_score_winner': 'CLE', 'final_score_winner': 'CLE', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'CLE 4 - 3 KC', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'CLE 4 - 3 KC', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0961, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -1.154, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'CLE', 'model_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'CLE', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'CLE', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.9415, 'winner': 'CLE', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-25.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260925_CLE@KC.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CLE@KC.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -7.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 7.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.4, 'home_run_delta': -0.0404, 'away_run_delta': 0.0404, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -10.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02378647591348404}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.023711593604874768}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.022500178049424155}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.02242934514073315}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02150338565245724}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.09144376739496698, '1': 0.13414697593153246, '2': 0.16705764298849005, '3': 0.17660805138432376, '4': 0.1584941853941267, '5': 0.1207465847069738, '6': 0.07808993539066926, '7': 0.04287202108258354, '8': 0.019980738591260826, '9': 0.007905107943481975, '10': 0.0026549891915905945}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.04818044858001509, '1': 0.07282356945346, '2': 0.09919287182017163, '3': 0.12175767460149862, '4': 0.134685116148648, '5': 0.13426111334683735, '6': 0.12061137326332463, '7': 0.09764132392844847, '8': 0.07123385297521528, '9': 0.04683241901163993, '10': 0.02774687802177968, '11': 0.014814569584072854, '12': 0.007128059733651943, '13': 0.0030907295312367225}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.15, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.8648, 'recent_quality_edge': -1.084, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.9415}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'CLE 4 - 3 KC', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'CLE 4 - 3 KC', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0961, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -1.154, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'CLE', 'model_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'CLE', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'CLE', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.9415, 'winner': 'CLE', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 133.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 173.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 133.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 173.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CLE 4 - 3 KC.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CLE 4 - 3 KC.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CLE wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=CLE, simulation=CLE, published=CLE.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.560.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 2/10 (0.200).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): CLE wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CLE wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-3, final 4-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CLE wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CLE recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CLE wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	KC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	KC wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	current:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	KC	BATTING_REALISM	current:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	KC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting walks match KC pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting home runs match KC pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting hits match KC pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting strikeouts match KC pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CLE PA=40 matches KC BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CLE runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:KC batting walks match CLE pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:KC batting home runs match CLE pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:KC batting hits match CLE pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:KC batting strikeouts match CLE pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:KC PA=34 matches CLE BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:KC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.690 -> 0.628 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.689611, 'sample_size': 664, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5663, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.627955, 'published_confidence': 0.56, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CLE current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CLE current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CLE current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CLE hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	KC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	KC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	KC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	KC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.440.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.692/0.900.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CLE 8, KC 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CLE 4 - KC 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CLE.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for CLE; cap=0.56, reasons=predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'opponent_team': 'KC', 'h2h_net_margin': 2, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-30', 'predicted_team_runs': 11, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 10, 'winner': 'CLE'}, {'date': '2026-08-29', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 8, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -5, 'winner': 'KC'}, {'date': '2026-08-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'KC'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260830', 'away': 'KC', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'actual_winner': 'CLE', 'actual_margin': 10, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260830_KC@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260829', 'away': 'KC', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'KC', 'actual_winner': 'KC', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.551806, 'artifact': '20260829_KC@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260828', 'away': 'KC', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'actual_winner': 'KC', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.573839, 'artifact': '20260828_KC@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'CLE', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'KC', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'output_opponent_team': 'KC', 'simulation_score_winner': 'CLE', 'final_score_winner': 'CLE', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'CLE 4 - 3 KC', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'CLE 4 - 3 KC', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0961, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -1.154, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'CLE', 'model_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'CLE', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'CLE', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.9415, 'winner': 'CLE', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-25.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260925_CLE@KC.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CLE@KC.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -7.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 7.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.4, 'home_run_delta': -0.0404, 'away_run_delta': 0.0404, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -10.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02378647591348404}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.023711593604874768}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.022500178049424155}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.02242934514073315}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02150338565245724}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.09144376739496698, '1': 0.13414697593153246, '2': 0.16705764298849005, '3': 0.17660805138432376, '4': 0.1584941853941267, '5': 0.1207465847069738, '6': 0.07808993539066926, '7': 0.04287202108258354, '8': 0.019980738591260826, '9': 0.007905107943481975, '10': 0.0026549891915905945}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.04818044858001509, '1': 0.07282356945346, '2': 0.09919287182017163, '3': 0.12175767460149862, '4': 0.134685116148648, '5': 0.13426111334683735, '6': 0.12061137326332463, '7': 0.09764132392844847, '8': 0.07123385297521528, '9': 0.04683241901163993, '10': 0.02774687802177968, '11': 0.014814569584072854, '12': 0.007128059733651943, '13': 0.0030907295312367225}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.15, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.8648, 'recent_quality_edge': -1.084, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.9415}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'CLE 4 - 3 KC', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'CLE 4 - 3 KC', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0961, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -1.154, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'CLE', 'model_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'CLE', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'CLE', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.9415, 'winner': 'CLE', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 133.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 173.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 133.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 173.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CLE 4 - 3 KC.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CLE 4 - 3 KC.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CLE wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=CLE, simulation=CLE, published=CLE.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.560.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 2/10 (0.200).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): CLE wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CLE wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-3, final 4-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CLE wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CLE recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CLE wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	KC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	KC wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CLE pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	KC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=35; 2B: current=2, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=6, sim=10).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CLE current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Chase DeLauter: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Steven Kwan: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; David Fry: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Jo Adell: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Angel Martínez: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; José Ramírez: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3; Travis Bazzana: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Austin Hedges: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	KC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Carter Jensen: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Maikel Garcia: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1; Jac Caglianone: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Bobby Witt Jr.: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; John Rave: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Vinnie Pasquantino: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Michael Massey: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Salvador Perez: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.8442163656742485	4.311813318055901		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	4		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4	3	0.560	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	3		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	3		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	3		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4	3		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CLE	0	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	4	8
KC	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	3	6

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	CLE	batting	32	8	2	0	1	4	4	3	6	0	0	0	0
current	CLE	pitching		6			1		3	1	8					9.0	3	0	0
current	KC	batting	34	8	2	0	1	4	4	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	KC	pitching		8			1		4	5	10					9.0	4	0	0
simulation	CLE	batting	35	8	3	0	1	4	4	5	10	0	0
simulation	CLE	pitching		6			1		3	1	8					9.0	3	34	133
simulation	KC	batting	33	6	0	0	1	3	3	1	8	0	0
simulation	KC	pitching		8			1		4	5	10					9.0	4	40	173

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	CLE		DH	Chase DeLauter	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	CLE		CF	Steven Kwan	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	CLE		1B	David Fry	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	CLE		RF	Jo Adell	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	CLE		LF	Angel Martínez	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	CLE		3B	José Ramírez	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	CLE		2B	Travis Bazzana	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	CLE		C	Austin Hedges	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	CLE		SS	Brayan Rocchio	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	KC		C	Carter Jensen	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	KC		3B	Maikel Garcia	0	4	1	1	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	KC		RF	Jac Caglianone	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	KC		SS	Bobby Witt Jr.	0	4	1	1	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	KC		LF	John Rave	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	KC		1B	Vinnie Pasquantino	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	KC		2B	Michael Massey	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	KC		DH	Salvador Perez	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	KC		CF	Kyle Isbel	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	CLE	1	CF	Steven Kwan	5	5	2	1	0	1	0	0	1	0.400
simulation	CLE	2	3B	José Ramírez	5	3	2	1	1	1	3	2	0	0.667
simulation	CLE	3	DH	Chase DeLauter	5	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
simulation	CLE	4	RF	Jo Adell	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	CLE	5	LF	Angel Martínez	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0.000
simulation	CLE	6	1B	David Fry	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.250
simulation	CLE	7	2B	Travis Bazzana	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	2	0.250
simulation	CLE	8	C	Austin Hedges	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	CLE	9	SS	Brayan Rocchio	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	KC	1	C	Carter Jensen	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	KC	2	SS	Bobby Witt Jr.	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	KC	3	RF	Jac Caglianone	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	KC	4	3B	Maikel Garcia	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
simulation	KC	5	1B	Vinnie Pasquantino	4	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	KC	6	DH	Salvador Perez	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.500
simulation	KC	7	2B	Michael Massey	4	4	1	0	1	1	2	0	0	0.250
simulation	KC	8	LF	John Rave	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	KC	9	CF	Kyle Isbel	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	CLE	1	Gavin Williams	Starter	5.2	3	3	3	0	8	1	0	0	4.76	3.63	1.08
current	CLE	2	Cade Smith	Closer	1.1	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.96	0.97
current	CLE	3	Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.47	1.06
current	CLE	4	Hunter Gaddis	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.58	1.18
current	KC	1	Noah Cameron	Starter	5.2	5	2	2	3	6	1	0	0	3.18	3.92	1.20
current	KC	2	Alex Lange	Setup Man	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	6.18	1.58
current	KC	3	Connor Thomas	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	9.00	8.06	1.79
current	KC	4	Nate Pearson	Closer	1.0	2	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	9.00	3.43	1.30
simulation	CLE	1	Gavin Williams	Starter	5.2	3	3	3	0	8	1	20	80	4.76	3.63	1.08
simulation	CLE	2	Cade Smith	Closer	1.1	2	0	0	1	0	0	7	24	0.00	1.96	0.97
simulation	CLE	3	Hunter Gaddis	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	2.58	1.18
simulation	CLE	4	Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	16	0.00	2.47	1.06
simulation	KC	1	Noah Cameron	Starter	5.2	5	2	2	3	6	1	25	110	3.18	3.92	1.20
simulation	KC	2	Nate Pearson	Closer	1.0	2	1	1	1	2	0	6	23	9.00	3.43	1.30
simulation	KC	3	Alex Lange	Setup Man	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	0	5	23	0.00	6.18	1.58
simulation	KC	4	Connor Thomas	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	1	1	1	1	0	4	17	9.00	8.06	1.79

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
CLE	Gavin Williams	Starter	5.2	3	3	0	8	20	80
CLE	Cade Smith	Closer	1.1	0	2	1	0	7	24
CLE	Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	1	0	0	4	16
CLE	Hunter Gaddis	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13
KC	Noah Cameron	Starter	5.2	2	5	3	6	25	110
KC	Alex Lange	Setup Man	1.1	0	1	0	1	5	23
KC	Connor Thomas	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	0	1	1	4	17
KC	Nate Pearson	Closer	1.0	1	2	1	2	6	23

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260925_COL@CHW

20260925_COL@CHW.json • 2026-09-25

COL 4 - CHW 9

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 8

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHW pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	COL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=9; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=9; R: current=5, sim=9; SO: current=7, sim=5).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHW current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Munetaka Murakami: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Sam Antonacci: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3; Kyle Teel: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Randal Grichuk: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Miguel Vargas: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=2, RBI current=1 box=4; Braden Montgomery: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, BB current=0 box=1; Andrew Benintendi: R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Tristan Peters: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (ER: current=8, sim=9).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=9, sim=10).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	COL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jake McCarthy: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Adael Amador: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Hunter Goodman: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Kyle Karros: R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Zac Veen: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1; TJ Rumfield: BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Mickey Moniak: HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Troy Johnston: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	COL	BATTING_REALISM	current:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	COL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting walks match COL pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting home runs match COL pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting hits match COL pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting strikeouts match COL pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHW PA=36 matches COL BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHW runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:COL batting walks match CHW pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:COL batting home runs match CHW pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:COL batting hits match CHW pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:COL batting strikeouts match CHW pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:COL PA=35 matches CHW BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:COL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.920 -> 0.869 at weight 0.175.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.92, 'sample_size': 35, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.6286, 'empirical_weight': 0.175, 'blended_confidence': 0.869005, 'published_confidence': 0.723012, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHW current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHW current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHW current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHW hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	COL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	COL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	COL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	COL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.277.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.723.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.723.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 13 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 13.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.524/0.713.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: COL 7, CHW 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: COL 4 - CHW 9.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CHW.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for CHW.	{'winner_confidence': 0.723012, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-25.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260925_COL@CHW.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: COL@CHW.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': False, 'sample_size': 0, 'home_net_margin': 0.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0, 'away_run_delta': 0.0, 'evidence': []}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 8, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01529903011140245}, {'home_runs': 8, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.015218403652255548}, {'home_runs': 7, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.015036218752317585}, {'home_runs': 7, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.014956977318832592}, {'home_runs': 9, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.014664239359720476}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.016304589615384293, '1': 0.025196632068929515, '2': 0.036681365458841785, '3': 0.050305893937066734, '4': 0.06499240757124321, '5': 0.07910004981856512, '6': 0.09069038931584573, '7': 0.09795264166135936, '8': 0.09966471218287971, '9': 0.09552940183300433, '10': 0.08625873349009343, '11': 0.07337354014547567, '12': 0.05879579232345691, '13': 0.044383689212060394, '14': 0.03156246594480617, '15': 0.021144081923100584, '16': 0.01334372601770671, '17': 0.007932969360734909, '18': 0.0044428823712126895, '19': 0.0023440357482327158}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.06832755969029787, '1': 0.10187424333865105, '2': 0.13319103285091233, '3': 0.15269600763337926, '4': 0.15350498462614834, '5': 0.13531918940007326, '6': 0.10460161682862518, '7': 0.07090216754816671, '8': 0.0421427364039517, '9': 0.02196484060656736, '10': 0.01003865398674512, '11': 0.004023138827485401, '12': 0.00141382825899658}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.15, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 1.7453, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.928, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 1.4592}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 9, 'score_text': 'COL 4 - 9 CHW', 'winner': 'CHW'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 9, 'score_text': 'COL 4 - 9 CHW', 'winner': 'CHW'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0595, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.928, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 9, 'winner': 'CHW', 'model_winner': 'CHW', 'simulation_winner': 'CHW', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'CHW', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'CHW', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 5, 'simulation_margin': 5, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 9}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 9}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 5, 'final_margin': 5, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.4592, 'winner': 'CHW', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 9, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 143.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 147.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 147.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 143.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: COL 4 - 9 CHW.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: COL 4 - 9 CHW.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CHW wins 9-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=CHW, simulation=CHW, published=CHW.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.723.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 2/10 (0.200).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): CHW wins 9-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CHW wins 4-9.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-9.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-9, final 4-9 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 13.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CHW wins 9-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHW recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHW wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	COL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	COL wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	COL	BATTING_REALISM	current:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	COL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting walks match COL pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting home runs match COL pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting hits match COL pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting strikeouts match COL pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHW PA=36 matches COL BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHW runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:COL batting walks match CHW pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:COL batting home runs match CHW pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:COL batting hits match CHW pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:COL batting strikeouts match CHW pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:COL PA=35 matches CHW BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:COL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.920 -> 0.869 at weight 0.175.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.92, 'sample_size': 35, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.6286, 'empirical_weight': 0.175, 'blended_confidence': 0.869005, 'published_confidence': 0.723012, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHW current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHW current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHW current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHW hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	COL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	COL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	COL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	COL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.277.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.723.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.723.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 13 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 13.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.524/0.713.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: COL 7, CHW 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: COL 4 - CHW 9.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CHW.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for CHW.	{'winner_confidence': 0.723012, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-25.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260925_COL@CHW.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: COL@CHW.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': False, 'sample_size': 0, 'home_net_margin': 0.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0, 'away_run_delta': 0.0, 'evidence': []}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 8, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01529903011140245}, {'home_runs': 8, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.015218403652255548}, {'home_runs': 7, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.015036218752317585}, {'home_runs': 7, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.014956977318832592}, {'home_runs': 9, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.014664239359720476}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.016304589615384293, '1': 0.025196632068929515, '2': 0.036681365458841785, '3': 0.050305893937066734, '4': 0.06499240757124321, '5': 0.07910004981856512, '6': 0.09069038931584573, '7': 0.09795264166135936, '8': 0.09966471218287971, '9': 0.09552940183300433, '10': 0.08625873349009343, '11': 0.07337354014547567, '12': 0.05879579232345691, '13': 0.044383689212060394, '14': 0.03156246594480617, '15': 0.021144081923100584, '16': 0.01334372601770671, '17': 0.007932969360734909, '18': 0.0044428823712126895, '19': 0.0023440357482327158}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.06832755969029787, '1': 0.10187424333865105, '2': 0.13319103285091233, '3': 0.15269600763337926, '4': 0.15350498462614834, '5': 0.13531918940007326, '6': 0.10460161682862518, '7': 0.07090216754816671, '8': 0.0421427364039517, '9': 0.02196484060656736, '10': 0.01003865398674512, '11': 0.004023138827485401, '12': 0.00141382825899658}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.15, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 1.7453, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.928, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 1.4592}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 9, 'score_text': 'COL 4 - 9 CHW', 'winner': 'CHW'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 9, 'score_text': 'COL 4 - 9 CHW', 'winner': 'CHW'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0595, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.928, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 9, 'winner': 'CHW', 'model_winner': 'CHW', 'simulation_winner': 'CHW', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'CHW', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'CHW', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 5, 'simulation_margin': 5, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 9}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 9}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 5, 'final_margin': 5, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.4592, 'winner': 'CHW', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 9, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 143.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 147.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 147.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 143.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: COL 4 - 9 CHW.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: COL 4 - 9 CHW.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CHW wins 9-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=CHW, simulation=CHW, published=CHW.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.723.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 2/10 (0.200).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): CHW wins 9-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CHW wins 4-9.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-9.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-9, final 4-9 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 13.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CHW wins 9-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHW recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHW wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	COL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	COL wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHW pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	COL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=9; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=9; R: current=5, sim=9; SO: current=7, sim=5).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHW current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Munetaka Murakami: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Sam Antonacci: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3; Kyle Teel: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Randal Grichuk: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Miguel Vargas: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=2, RBI current=1 box=4; Braden Montgomery: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, BB current=0 box=1; Andrew Benintendi: R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Tristan Peters: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (ER: current=8, sim=9).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=9, sim=10).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	COL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jake McCarthy: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Adael Amador: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Hunter Goodman: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Kyle Karros: R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Zac Veen: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1; TJ Rumfield: BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Mickey Moniak: HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Troy Johnston: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	3.7990225622717353	5.756673340712128		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	6		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4	8	0.723	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	9		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	9		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	9		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4	9		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
COL	0	0	1	0	0	0	3	0	0	4	7
CHW	5	2	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	9	9

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	COL	batting	33	7	2	0	1	4	4	3	9	0	0	0	0
current	COL	pitching		9			3		9	3	5					8.0	8	0	0
current	CHW	batting	31	8	2	0	1	4	5	3	7	0	0	0	0
current	CHW	pitching		7			2		4	1	10					9.0	4	0	0
simulation	COL	batting	34	7	1	0	2	4	4	1	10	0	0
simulation	COL	pitching		9			3		9	3	5					8.0	9	36	143
simulation	CHW	batting	33	9	2	0	3	9	9	3	5	0	0
simulation	CHW	pitching		7			2		4	1	10					9.0	4	35	147

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	COL		CF	Jake McCarthy	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	COL		2B	Adael Amador	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	COL		C	Hunter Goodman	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	COL		3B	Kyle Karros	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	COL		DH	Zac Veen	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	COL		1B	TJ Rumfield	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.250
current	COL		LF	Mickey Moniak	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	COL		RF	Troy Johnston	0	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	COL		SS	Ezequiel Tovar	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	CHW		1B	Munetaka Murakami	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	CHW		2B	Sam Antonacci	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.250
current	CHW		C	Kyle Teel	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	CHW		LF	Randal Grichuk	0	3	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	0.333
current	CHW		3B	Miguel Vargas	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	CHW		RF	Braden Montgomery	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.333
current	CHW		DH	Andrew Benintendi	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	CHW		CF	Tristan Peters	0	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	CHW		SS	Colson Montgomery	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	COL	1	CF	Jake McCarthy	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	COL	2	2B	Adael Amador	4	4	1	1	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	COL	3	C	Hunter Goodman	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	COL	4	1B	TJ Rumfield	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.250
simulation	COL	5	3B	Kyle Karros	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	COL	6	LF	Mickey Moniak	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.250
simulation	COL	7	RF	Troy Johnston	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	COL	8	DH	Zac Veen	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	COL	9	SS	Ezequiel Tovar	3	3	1	0	1	1	3	0	1	0.333
simulation	CHW	1	2B	Sam Antonacci	4	4	2	1	0	1	3	0	0	0.500
simulation	CHW	2	C	Kyle Teel	4	4	1	1	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	CHW	3	3B	Miguel Vargas	4	3	2	0	2	1	4	1	0	0.667
simulation	CHW	4	1B	Munetaka Murakami	4	4	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	CHW	5	DH	Andrew Benintendi	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	CHW	6	CF	Tristan Peters	4	4	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	CHW	7	LF	Randal Grichuk	4	4	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	CHW	8	SS	Colson Montgomery	4	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	CHW	9	RF	Braden Montgomery	4	3	1	0	1	1	2	1	1	0.333

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	COL	1	Tomoyuki Sugano	Starter	5.0	6	7	6	2	3	2	0	0	10.80	5.36	1.33
current	COL	2	Brennan Bernardino	Setup Man	2.0	1	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.45	1.09
current	COL	3	Jordan Romano	Closer	1.0	2	2	2	0	0	1	0	0	18.00	4.13	1.26
current	CHW	1	Sean Burke	Starter	5.0	4	1	1	0	6	0	0	0	1.80	3.40	1.20
current	CHW	2	Grant Taylor	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.40	1.03
current	CHW	3	Sean Newcomb	Setup Man	1.1	2	2	2	1	0	1	0	0	13.50	2.77	1.11
current	CHW	4	Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.62	1.16
current	CHW	5	Jordan Hicks	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.1	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	27.00	3.83	1.50
simulation	COL	1	Tomoyuki Sugano	Starter	5.0	6	7	7	2	3	2	23	92	12.60	5.36	1.33
simulation	COL	2	Jordan Romano	Closer	1.0	2	2	2	0	0	1	5	19	18.00	4.13	1.26
simulation	COL	3	Brennan Bernardino	Setup Man	2.0	1	0	0	1	2	0	8	32	0.00	2.45	1.09
simulation	CHW	1	Sean Burke	Starter	5.0	4	1	1	0	6	0	19	83	1.80	3.40	1.20
simulation	CHW	2	Grant Taylor	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	4	17	0.00	2.40	1.03
simulation	CHW	3	Sean Newcomb	Setup Man	1.1	2	2	2	1	0	1	7	27	13.50	2.77	1.11
simulation	CHW	4	Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	2.62	1.16
simulation	CHW	5	Jordan Hicks	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.1	1	1	1	0	1	1	2	7	27.00	3.83	1.50

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
COL	Tomoyuki Sugano	Starter	5.0	7	6	2	3	23	92
COL	Brennan Bernardino	Setup Man	2.0	0	1	1	2	8	32
COL	Jordan Romano	Closer	1.0	2	2	0	0	5	19
CHW	Sean Burke	Starter	5.0	1	4	0	6	19	83
CHW	Grant Taylor	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	2	4	17
CHW	Sean Newcomb	Setup Man	1.1	2	2	1	0	7	27
CHW	Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13
CHW	Jordan Hicks	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.1	1	1	0	1	2	7

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	1	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260925_HOU@OAK

20260925_HOU@OAK.json • 2026-09-25

HOU 5 - OAK 4

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	HOU pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	OAK pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=2, sim=1; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=2, sim=1; BB: current=4, sim=1; SO: current=7, sim=10).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	HOU current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Isaac Paredes: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2; Jeremy Peña: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Yainer Diaz: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jose Altuve: 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Lucas Spence: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jorge Barrosa: H current=1 box=2, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Yordan Alvarez: BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Christian Walker: R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=4, sim=0).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	OAK current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Henry Bolte: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Shea Langeliers: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Donovan Walton: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Carlos Cortes: H current=1 box=0; Tommy White: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jeff McNeil: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Zack Gelof: RBI current=1 box=0; Lawrence Butler: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	HOU	BATTING_REALISM	current:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	current:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	HOU	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	HOU	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	HOU	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting walks match OAK pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting home runs match OAK pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting hits match OAK pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting strikeouts match OAK pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:HOU PA=35 matches OAK BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:HOU runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting walks match HOU pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting home runs match HOU pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting hits match HOU pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting strikeouts match HOU pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:OAK PA=33 matches HOU BF=33.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:OAK runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.598 -> 0.579 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.597999, 'sample_size': 692, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5607, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.57935, 'published_confidence': 0.539426, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	HOU current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	HOU current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	HOU current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	HOU hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	OAK current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	OAK current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	OAK current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	OAK hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.539.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.539.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.461.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.525/0.713.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: HOU 7, OAK 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: HOU 5 - OAK 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: HOU.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for HOU; cap=0.56, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'HOU', 'opponent_team': 'OAK', 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-24', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'HOU'}, {'date': '2026-08-23', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'OAK'}, {'date': '2026-08-22', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'OAK'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 4, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260924', 'away': 'HOU', 'home': 'OAK', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'HOU', 'actual_winner': 'HOU', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260924_HOU@OAK.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260823', 'away': 'OAK', 'home': 'HOU', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'OAK', 'actual_winner': 'OAK', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.505, 'artifact': '20260823_OAK@HOU.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260822', 'away': 'OAK', 'home': 'HOU', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'HOU', 'actual_winner': 'OAK', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.554445, 'artifact': '20260822_OAK@HOU.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260821', 'away': 'OAK', 'home': 'HOU', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'HOU', 'actual_winner': 'HOU', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260821_OAK@HOU.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'HOU', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'OAK', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'HOU', 'output_opponent_team': 'OAK', 'simulation_score_winner': 'HOU', 'final_score_winner': 'HOU', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'HOU', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'HOU 5 - 4 OAK', 'winner': 'HOU'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'HOU 5 - 4 OAK', 'winner': 'HOU'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.023, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.11, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'HOU', 'model_winner': 'HOU', 'simulation_winner': 'HOU', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'HOU', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'HOU', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.8479, 'winner': 'HOU', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-25.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260925_HOU@OAK.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: HOU@OAK.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 1.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 1.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.2, 'home_run_delta': 0.0058, 'away_run_delta': -0.0058, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01755232536968844}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.017314689855584806}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01679435671437361}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.0167062092164391}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.016566983103880262}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.04990178313939189, '1': 0.07533756291206016, '2': 0.10225939243387056, '3': 0.12479321899518589, '4': 0.13692252673482921, '5': 0.13506877491860605, '6': 0.11979292107291865, '7': 0.09552201773351247, '8': 0.06848129406736751, '9': 0.044140430820620954, '10': 0.025579810050161165, '11': 0.01332766908521465, '12': 0.006243199676387952, '13': 0.0026293983598728757}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.040338801821690404, '1': 0.061292369562411436, '2': 0.08481287715557313, '3': 0.10687820434099529, '4': 0.12265590706559462, '5': 0.12819165544381986, '6': 0.12201213061743413, '7': 0.10575921864530531, '8': 0.08348441796269869, '9': 0.0600156592997679, '10': 0.03929123743268476, '11': 0.023426035627347172, '12': 0.012719611884267325, '13': 0.006289569026129545, '14': 0.0028323041142805784}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.15, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -1.2075, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.18, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.8479}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'HOU 5 - 4 OAK', 'winner': 'HOU'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'HOU 5 - 4 OAK', 'winner': 'HOU'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.023, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.11, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'HOU', 'model_winner': 'HOU', 'simulation_winner': 'HOU', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'HOU', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'HOU', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.8479, 'winner': 'HOU', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 136.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 137.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	HOU	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	HOU pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	HOU	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	HOU pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 136.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 137.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	HOU	PITCHING_REALISM	current:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	HOU	STARTER_PRESENT	current:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	current:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	current:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	HOU	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: HOU 5 - 4 OAK.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: HOU 5 - 4 OAK.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: HOU wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=HOU, simulation=HOU, published=HOU.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.539.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): HOU wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: HOU wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: HOU wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	HOU	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	HOU recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	HOU	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	HOU wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	OAK recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	OAK wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	HOU	BATTING_REALISM	current:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	current:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	HOU	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	HOU	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	HOU	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting walks match OAK pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting home runs match OAK pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting hits match OAK pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting strikeouts match OAK pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:HOU PA=35 matches OAK BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:HOU runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting walks match HOU pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting home runs match HOU pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting hits match HOU pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting strikeouts match HOU pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:OAK PA=33 matches HOU BF=33.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:OAK runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.598 -> 0.579 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.597999, 'sample_size': 692, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5607, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.57935, 'published_confidence': 0.539426, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	HOU current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	HOU current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	HOU current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	HOU hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	OAK current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	OAK current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	OAK current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	OAK hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.539.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.539.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.461.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.525/0.713.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: HOU 7, OAK 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: HOU 5 - OAK 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: HOU.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for HOU; cap=0.56, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'HOU', 'opponent_team': 'OAK', 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-24', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'HOU'}, {'date': '2026-08-23', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'OAK'}, {'date': '2026-08-22', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'OAK'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 4, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260924', 'away': 'HOU', 'home': 'OAK', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'HOU', 'actual_winner': 'HOU', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260924_HOU@OAK.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260823', 'away': 'OAK', 'home': 'HOU', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'OAK', 'actual_winner': 'OAK', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.505, 'artifact': '20260823_OAK@HOU.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260822', 'away': 'OAK', 'home': 'HOU', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'HOU', 'actual_winner': 'OAK', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.554445, 'artifact': '20260822_OAK@HOU.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260821', 'away': 'OAK', 'home': 'HOU', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'HOU', 'actual_winner': 'HOU', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260821_OAK@HOU.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'HOU', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'OAK', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'HOU', 'output_opponent_team': 'OAK', 'simulation_score_winner': 'HOU', 'final_score_winner': 'HOU', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'HOU', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'HOU 5 - 4 OAK', 'winner': 'HOU'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'HOU 5 - 4 OAK', 'winner': 'HOU'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.023, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.11, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'HOU', 'model_winner': 'HOU', 'simulation_winner': 'HOU', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'HOU', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'HOU', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.8479, 'winner': 'HOU', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-25.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260925_HOU@OAK.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: HOU@OAK.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 1.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 1.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.2, 'home_run_delta': 0.0058, 'away_run_delta': -0.0058, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01755232536968844}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.017314689855584806}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01679435671437361}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.0167062092164391}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.016566983103880262}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.04990178313939189, '1': 0.07533756291206016, '2': 0.10225939243387056, '3': 0.12479321899518589, '4': 0.13692252673482921, '5': 0.13506877491860605, '6': 0.11979292107291865, '7': 0.09552201773351247, '8': 0.06848129406736751, '9': 0.044140430820620954, '10': 0.025579810050161165, '11': 0.01332766908521465, '12': 0.006243199676387952, '13': 0.0026293983598728757}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.040338801821690404, '1': 0.061292369562411436, '2': 0.08481287715557313, '3': 0.10687820434099529, '4': 0.12265590706559462, '5': 0.12819165544381986, '6': 0.12201213061743413, '7': 0.10575921864530531, '8': 0.08348441796269869, '9': 0.0600156592997679, '10': 0.03929123743268476, '11': 0.023426035627347172, '12': 0.012719611884267325, '13': 0.006289569026129545, '14': 0.0028323041142805784}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.15, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -1.2075, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.18, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.8479}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'HOU 5 - 4 OAK', 'winner': 'HOU'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'HOU 5 - 4 OAK', 'winner': 'HOU'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.023, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.11, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'HOU', 'model_winner': 'HOU', 'simulation_winner': 'HOU', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'HOU', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'HOU', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.8479, 'winner': 'HOU', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 136.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 137.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	HOU	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	HOU pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	HOU	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	HOU pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 136.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 137.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	HOU	PITCHING_REALISM	current:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	HOU	STARTER_PRESENT	current:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	current:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	current:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	HOU	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: HOU 5 - 4 OAK.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: HOU 5 - 4 OAK.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: HOU wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=HOU, simulation=HOU, published=HOU.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.539.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): HOU wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: HOU wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: HOU wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	HOU	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	HOU recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	HOU	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	HOU wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	OAK recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	OAK wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	HOU pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	OAK pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=2, sim=1; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=2, sim=1; BB: current=4, sim=1; SO: current=7, sim=10).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	HOU current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Isaac Paredes: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2; Jeremy Peña: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Yainer Diaz: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jose Altuve: 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Lucas Spence: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jorge Barrosa: H current=1 box=2, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Yordan Alvarez: BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Christian Walker: R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=4, sim=0).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	OAK current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Henry Bolte: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Shea Langeliers: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Donovan Walton: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Carlos Cortes: H current=1 box=0; Tommy White: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jeff McNeil: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Zack Gelof: RBI current=1 box=0; Lawrence Butler: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	5.658857225734885	4.438546231273523		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	6	4		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5	4	0.539	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5	4		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
HOU	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	0	0	5	7
OAK	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	4	6

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	HOU	batting	33	9	2	0	2	5	5	4	7	0	0	0	0
current	HOU	pitching		6			2		4	0	8					9.0	4	0	0
current	OAK	batting	32	8	2	0	1	5	4	4	8	0	0	0	0
current	OAK	pitching		7			1		5	1	10					9.0	5	0	0
simulation	HOU	batting	34	7	1	1	1	5	5	1	10	0	0
simulation	HOU	pitching		6			2		4	0	8					9.0	4	33	136
simulation	OAK	batting	33	6	1	0	2	4	4	0	8	0	0
simulation	OAK	pitching		7			1		5	1	10					9.0	5	35	137

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	HOU		3B	Isaac Paredes	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	HOU		SS	Jeremy Peña	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	HOU		C	Yainer Diaz	0	4	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.250
current	HOU		2B	Jose Altuve	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	HOU		CF	Lucas Spence	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.333
current	HOU		LF	Jorge Barrosa	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	HOU		DH	Yordan Alvarez	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	HOU		1B	Christian Walker	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	0.250
current	HOU		RF	Cam Smith	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	OAK		CF	Henry Bolte	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	OAK		DH	Shea Langeliers	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	OAK		SS	Donovan Walton	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	0.333
current	OAK		LF	Carlos Cortes	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	OAK		1B	Tommy White	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	OAK		2B	Jeff McNeil	0	4	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.250
current	OAK		3B	Zack Gelof	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	OAK		C	Jonah Heim	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	OAK		RF	Lawrence Butler	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
simulation	HOU	1	SS	Jeremy Peña	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	HOU	2	DH	Yordan Alvarez	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	HOU	3	3B	Isaac Paredes	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	2	0.250
simulation	HOU	4	2B	Jose Altuve	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	HOU	5	C	Yainer Diaz	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	HOU	6	1B	Christian Walker	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	3	0.250
simulation	HOU	7	RF	Cam Smith	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	HOU	8	CF	Lucas Spence	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	HOU	9	LF	Jorge Barrosa	3	3	2	0	1	0	1	3	0	1	0.667
simulation	OAK	1	CF	Henry Bolte	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	3	0	2	0.250
simulation	OAK	2	RF	Lawrence Butler	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	OAK	3	DH	Shea Langeliers	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	OAK	4	2B	Jeff McNeil	4	4	2	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.500
simulation	OAK	5	3B	Zack Gelof	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	OAK	6	SS	Donovan Walton	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	OAK	7	LF	Carlos Cortes	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	OAK	8	1B	Tommy White	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	OAK	9	C	Jonah Heim	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	HOU	1	Hunter Brown	Starter	5.1	5	3	3	0	6	1	0	0	5.06	3.26	1.27
current	HOU	2	Logan VanWey	Setup Man	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.74	0.87
current	HOU	3	Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	6.75	3.73	1.32
current	HOU	4	Josh Hader	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	0.81	0.69
current	OAK	1	Jacob Lopez	Starter	4.1	5	3	3	0	7	1	0	0	6.23	5.68	1.53
current	OAK	3	Elvis Alvarado	Closer	2.1	2	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	7.71	3.83	1.26
current	OAK	4	Hogan Harris	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.38	1.46
current	OAK	5	Luis Medina	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.86	1.30
simulation	HOU	1	Hunter Brown	Starter	5.1	5	3	3	0	6	1	21	86	5.06	3.26	1.27
simulation	HOU	2	Josh Hader	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	0.81	0.69
simulation	HOU	3	Logan VanWey	Setup Man	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	17	0.00	1.74	0.87
simulation	HOU	4	Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	1	1	1	0	0	1	5	20	6.75	3.73	1.32
simulation	OAK	1	Jacob Lopez	Starter	4.1	5	3	3	0	7	1	18	70	6.23	5.68	1.53
simulation	OAK	2	Elvis Alvarado	Closer	2.1	2	2	2	1	0	0	10	37	7.71	3.83	1.26
simulation	OAK	3	Hogan Harris	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	3.38	1.46
simulation	OAK	4	Luis Medina	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	4	17	0.00	2.86	1.30

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
HOU	Hunter Brown	Starter	5.1	3	5	0	6	21	86
HOU	Logan VanWey	Setup Man	1.1	0	0	0	1	4	17
HOU	Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	1	1	0	0	5	20
HOU	Josh Hader	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13
OAK	Jacob Lopez	Starter	4.1	3	5	0	7	18	70
OAK	Elvis Alvarado	Closer	2.1	2	2	1	0	10	37
OAK	Hogan Harris	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13
OAK	Luis Medina	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	2	4	17

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260925_LAA@SEA

20260925_LAA@SEA.json • 2026-09-25

LAA 4 - SEA 3

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SEA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=31; H: current=7, sim=4; RBI: current=3, sim=4; R: current=3, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=10, sim=3).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Vaughn Grissom: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Wade Meckler: RBI current=0 box=3, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Moisés Ballesteros: H current=1 box=0; Josh Lowe: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Mike Trout: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=2; Bryce Teodosio: AB current=3 box=2, H current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Christian Moore: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Travis d'Arnaud: BB current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=7, sim=5; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=5, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=8; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SEA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Randy Arozarena: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Dominic Canzone: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Michael Arroyo: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Jhonny Pereda: AB current=3 box=4, R current=1 box=0; Julio Rodríguez: AB current=4 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2; Leo Rivas: SO current=1 box=2; Josh Naylor: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Cole Young: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SEA	BATTING_REALISM	current:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SEA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SEA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SEA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting walks match SEA pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting home runs match SEA pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting hits match SEA pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting strikeouts match SEA pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAA PA=35 matches SEA BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting walks match LAA pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting home runs match LAA pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting hits match LAA pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting strikeouts match LAA pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SEA PA=37 matches LAA BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SEA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.578 -> 0.567 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.578224, 'sample_size': 765, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5556, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.566912, 'published_confidence': 0.518016, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SEA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SEA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SEA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SEA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.518.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.518.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.482.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.525/0.713.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: LAA 4, SEA 5.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: LAA 4 - SEA 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAA.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for LAA; cap=0.54, reasons=predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result; a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.54, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'LAA', 'opponent_team': 'SEA', 'h2h_net_margin': -2, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-24', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'LAA'}, {'date': '2026-09-16', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -5, 'winner': 'SEA'}, {'date': '2026-09-15', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'LAA'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 7, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260924', 'away': 'LAA', 'home': 'SEA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'actual_winner': 'LAA', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260924_LAA@SEA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260916', 'away': 'SEA', 'home': 'LAA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'actual_winner': 'SEA', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.505216, 'artifact': '20260916_SEA@LAA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260915', 'away': 'SEA', 'home': 'LAA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'actual_winner': 'LAA', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260915_SEA@LAA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260914', 'away': 'SEA', 'home': 'LAA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAA', 'actual_winner': 'LAA', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.527588, 'artifact': '20260914_SEA@LAA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260702', 'away': 'LAA', 'home': 'SEA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'actual_winner': 'SEA', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260702_LAA@SEA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'LAA', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'SEA', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'LAA', 'output_opponent_team': 'SEA', 'simulation_score_winner': 'LAA', 'final_score_winner': 'LAA', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'LAA', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'LAA 4 - 3 SEA', 'winner': 'LAA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'LAA 4 - 3 SEA', 'winner': 'LAA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.1068, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.066, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'LAA', 'model_winner': 'LAA', 'simulation_winner': 'LAA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'LAA', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.1667, 'draw_majority_team': 'SEA', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.1915, 'winner': 'LAA', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-25.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260925_LAA@SEA.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: LAA@SEA.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 1.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 1.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.2, 'home_run_delta': 0.0058, 'away_run_delta': -0.0058, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.025309438147978546}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02502257171946497}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02466559325279534}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02438602439780031}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.022571606970084864}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.0749914590661312, '1': 0.11131501654834457, '2': 0.14361002024871286, '3': 0.16102924925690743, '4': 0.15693283828551158, '5': 0.1329266094160098, '6': 0.09785861426025998, '7': 0.06261454548725327, '8': 0.034820935908458577, '9': 0.016830409530372015, '10': 0.007070301992038888}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.07185573387232927, '1': 0.10687961073926736, '2': 0.1387395555815372, '3': 0.15717292519696005, '4': 0.15539146977915638, '5': 0.13407524968392187, '6': 0.10095830620907562, '7': 0.0663448930785663, '8': 0.03804914854933896, '9': 0.019043834051560682, '10': 0.00831832406221615, '11': 0.0031709491960701503}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.15, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.2925, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.004, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.1915}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'LAA 4 - 3 SEA', 'winner': 'LAA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'LAA 4 - 3 SEA', 'winner': 'LAA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.1068, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.066, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'LAA', 'model_winner': 'LAA', 'simulation_winner': 'LAA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'LAA', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.1667, 'draw_majority_team': 'SEA', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.1915, 'winner': 'LAA', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 156.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 135.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 156.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SEA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SEA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SEA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SEA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 135.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SEA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SEA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SEA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SEA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SEA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: LAA 4 - 3 SEA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: LAA 4 - 3 SEA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: LAA wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=LAA, simulation=LAA, published=LAA.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.518.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): LAA wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: LAA wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-3, final 4-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: LAA wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAA wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SEA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SEA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SEA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SEA wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SEA	BATTING_REALISM	current:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SEA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SEA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SEA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting walks match SEA pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting home runs match SEA pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting hits match SEA pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting strikeouts match SEA pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAA PA=35 matches SEA BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting walks match LAA pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting home runs match LAA pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting hits match LAA pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting strikeouts match LAA pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SEA PA=37 matches LAA BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SEA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.578 -> 0.567 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.578224, 'sample_size': 765, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5556, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.566912, 'published_confidence': 0.518016, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SEA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SEA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SEA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SEA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.518.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.518.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.482.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.525/0.713.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: LAA 4, SEA 5.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: LAA 4 - SEA 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAA.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for LAA; cap=0.54, reasons=predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result; a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.54, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'LAA', 'opponent_team': 'SEA', 'h2h_net_margin': -2, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-24', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'LAA'}, {'date': '2026-09-16', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -5, 'winner': 'SEA'}, {'date': '2026-09-15', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'LAA'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 7, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260924', 'away': 'LAA', 'home': 'SEA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'actual_winner': 'LAA', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260924_LAA@SEA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260916', 'away': 'SEA', 'home': 'LAA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'actual_winner': 'SEA', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.505216, 'artifact': '20260916_SEA@LAA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260915', 'away': 'SEA', 'home': 'LAA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'actual_winner': 'LAA', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260915_SEA@LAA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260914', 'away': 'SEA', 'home': 'LAA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAA', 'actual_winner': 'LAA', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.527588, 'artifact': '20260914_SEA@LAA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260702', 'away': 'LAA', 'home': 'SEA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'actual_winner': 'SEA', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260702_LAA@SEA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'LAA', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'SEA', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'LAA', 'output_opponent_team': 'SEA', 'simulation_score_winner': 'LAA', 'final_score_winner': 'LAA', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'LAA', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'LAA 4 - 3 SEA', 'winner': 'LAA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'LAA 4 - 3 SEA', 'winner': 'LAA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.1068, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.066, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'LAA', 'model_winner': 'LAA', 'simulation_winner': 'LAA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'LAA', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.1667, 'draw_majority_team': 'SEA', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.1915, 'winner': 'LAA', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-25.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260925_LAA@SEA.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: LAA@SEA.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 1.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 1.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.2, 'home_run_delta': 0.0058, 'away_run_delta': -0.0058, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.025309438147978546}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02502257171946497}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02466559325279534}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02438602439780031}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.022571606970084864}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.0749914590661312, '1': 0.11131501654834457, '2': 0.14361002024871286, '3': 0.16102924925690743, '4': 0.15693283828551158, '5': 0.1329266094160098, '6': 0.09785861426025998, '7': 0.06261454548725327, '8': 0.034820935908458577, '9': 0.016830409530372015, '10': 0.007070301992038888}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.07185573387232927, '1': 0.10687961073926736, '2': 0.1387395555815372, '3': 0.15717292519696005, '4': 0.15539146977915638, '5': 0.13407524968392187, '6': 0.10095830620907562, '7': 0.0663448930785663, '8': 0.03804914854933896, '9': 0.019043834051560682, '10': 0.00831832406221615, '11': 0.0031709491960701503}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.15, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.2925, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.004, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.1915}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'LAA 4 - 3 SEA', 'winner': 'LAA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'LAA 4 - 3 SEA', 'winner': 'LAA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.1068, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.066, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'LAA', 'model_winner': 'LAA', 'simulation_winner': 'LAA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'LAA', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.1667, 'draw_majority_team': 'SEA', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.1915, 'winner': 'LAA', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 156.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 135.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 156.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SEA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SEA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SEA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SEA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 135.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SEA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SEA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SEA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SEA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SEA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: LAA 4 - 3 SEA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: LAA 4 - 3 SEA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: LAA wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=LAA, simulation=LAA, published=LAA.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.518.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): LAA wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: LAA wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-3, final 4-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: LAA wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAA wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SEA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SEA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SEA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SEA wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SEA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=31; H: current=7, sim=4; RBI: current=3, sim=4; R: current=3, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=10, sim=3).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Vaughn Grissom: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Wade Meckler: RBI current=0 box=3, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Moisés Ballesteros: H current=1 box=0; Josh Lowe: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Mike Trout: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=2; Bryce Teodosio: AB current=3 box=2, H current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Christian Moore: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Travis d'Arnaud: BB current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=7, sim=5; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=5, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=8; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SEA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Randy Arozarena: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Dominic Canzone: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Michael Arroyo: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Jhonny Pereda: AB current=3 box=4, R current=1 box=0; Julio Rodríguez: AB current=4 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2; Leo Rivas: SO current=1 box=2; Josh Naylor: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Cole Young: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.219275795822143	3.6499849370451876		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	4		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4	3	0.518	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	3		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	3		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	3		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4	3		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
LAA	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	4	4
SEA	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	5

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	LAA	batting	33	7	1	0	1	3	3	3	10	0	0	0	0
current	LAA	pitching		5			0		3	4	8					9.0	3	0	0
current	SEA	batting	32	7	1	0	1	4	5	3	9	0	0	0	0
current	SEA	pitching		4			1		4	4	3					9.0	4	0	0
simulation	LAA	batting	31	4	1	0	1	4	4	4	3	0	0
simulation	LAA	pitching		5			0		3	4	8					9.0	3	37	156
simulation	SEA	batting	32	5	1	0	0	3	3	4	8	0	1
simulation	SEA	pitching		4			1		4	4	3					9.0	4	35	135

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	LAA		3B	Vaughn Grissom	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	LAA		LF	Wade Meckler	0	4	1	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	LAA		1B	Moisés Ballesteros	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	LAA		RF	Josh Lowe	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	LAA		DH	Mike Trout	0	4	1	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	LAA		CF	Bryce Teodosio	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	LAA		2B	Christian Moore	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	LAA		C	Travis d'Arnaud	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	LAA		SS	Zach Neto	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	2	0	0.250
current	SEA		DH	Randy Arozarena	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	SEA		RF	Dominic Canzone	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	SEA		LF	Michael Arroyo	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.333
current	SEA		C	Jhonny Pereda	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	SEA		CF	Julio Rodríguez	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	SEA		SS	Leo Rivas	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
current	SEA		1B	Josh Naylor	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	SEA		2B	Cole Young	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	SEA		3B	Weston Wilson	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	LAA	1	SS	Zach Neto	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	LAA	2	DH	Mike Trout	4	2	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	0.000
simulation	LAA	3	LF	Wade Meckler	4	4	1	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	LAA	4	3B	Vaughn Grissom	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	LAA	5	1B	Moisés Ballesteros	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	LAA	6	RF	Josh Lowe	4	4	2	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	LAA	7	2B	Christian Moore	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	LAA	8	C	Travis d'Arnaud	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	LAA	9	CF	Bryce Teodosio	3	2	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.500
simulation	SEA	1	DH	Randy Arozarena	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	SEA	2	RF	Dominic Canzone	4	3	1	0	0	1	2	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	SEA	3	CF	Julio Rodríguez	4	2	1	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	0.500
simulation	SEA	4	1B	Josh Naylor	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	SEA	5	LF	Michael Arroyo	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	SEA	6	2B	Cole Young	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	SEA	7	C	Jhonny Pereda	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	SEA	8	3B	Weston Wilson	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	SEA	9	SS	Leo Rivas	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	LAA	1	Reid Detmers	Starter	6.0	4	3	3	4	6	0	0	0	4.50	3.47	1.05
current	LAA	2	José Fermin	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.42	1.33
current	LAA	3	Ryan Watson	Closer	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	4.00	1.26
current	LAA	4	Tayler Saucedo	Setup Man	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.57	1.05
current	LAA	5	Luke Murphy	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	5.79	1.55
current	SEA	1	Bryce Miller	Starter	5.1	4	4	4	4	2	1	0	0	6.75	3.99	1.15
current	SEA	2	Andrés Muñoz	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.92	1.19
current	SEA	3	Eduard Bazardo	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.72	1.42
current	SEA	4	José A. Ferrer	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.92	1.40
simulation	LAA	1	Reid Detmers	Starter	6.0	4	3	3	4	6	0	27	115	4.50	3.47	1.05
simulation	LAA	2	Ryan Watson	Closer	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	16	0.00	4.00	1.26
simulation	LAA	3	Tayler Saucedo	Setup Man	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	8	0.00	2.57	1.05
simulation	LAA	4	José Fermin	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	3.42	1.33
simulation	LAA	5	Luke Murphy	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	4	0.00	5.79	1.55
simulation	SEA	1	Bryce Miller	Starter	5.1	4	4	4	4	2	1	24	95	6.75	3.99	1.15
simulation	SEA	2	Andrés Muñoz	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	10	0.00	3.92	1.19
simulation	SEA	3	José A. Ferrer	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	3.92	1.40
simulation	SEA	4	Eduard Bazardo	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	17	0.00	3.72	1.42

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
LAA	Reid Detmers	Starter	6.0	3	4	4	6	27	115
LAA	José Fermin	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13
LAA	Ryan Watson	Closer	1.0	0	1	0	0	4	16
LAA	Tayler Saucedo	Setup Man	0.2	0	0	0	1	2	8
LAA	Luke Murphy	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.1	0	0	0	1	1	4
SEA	Bryce Miller	Starter	5.1	4	4	4	2	24	95
SEA	Andrés Muñoz	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	0	4	10
SEA	Eduard Bazardo	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	0	4	17
SEA	José A. Ferrer	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260925_LAD@SF

20260925_LAD@SF.json • 2026-09-25

LAD 6 - SF 2

ERROR

Final simulation is close, but errors remain. Risk score: 40.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 1WARN 0PASS 100INFO 8

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
ERROR	Batting Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 1E / 0W	SF	simulation:SF HR=3 exceeds RBI=2; every HR creates at least one RBI unless special scoring data is absent.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
ERROR	batting	simulation	SF		BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SF HR=3 exceeds RBI=2; every HR creates at least one RBI unless special scoring data is absent.

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
ERROR	batting	simulation	SF	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SF HR=3 exceeds RBI=2; every HR creates at least one RBI unless special scoring data is absent.
INFO	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SF pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (HR: current=2, sim=3).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=32; H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=1, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=6, sim=9).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Shohei Ohtani: RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Will Smith: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Freddie Freeman: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1; Kyle Tucker: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Mookie Betts: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0; Enrique Hernández: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2; Teoscar Hernández: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Andy Pages: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=30, sim=32; H: current=7, sim=5; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=2; R: current=4, sim=2; BB: current=2, sim=1; SO: current=10, sim=11).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SF current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Brett Harris: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Victor Bericoto: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Bo Davidson: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Shay Whitcomb: HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jonah Cox: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Andrew Knizner: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Marcelo Mayer: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Scott Bandura: H current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SF	BATTING_REALISM	current:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SF	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting walks match SF pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting home runs match SF pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting hits match SF pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting strikeouts match SF pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAD PA=38 matches SF BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SF batting walks match LAD pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SF batting home runs match LAD pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SF batting hits match LAD pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SF batting strikeouts match LAD pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SF PA=33 matches LAD BF=33.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SF runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.708 -> 0.629 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.707507, 'sample_size': 225, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5511, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.629303, 'published_confidence': 0.566085, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SF current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SF current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SF current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SF hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.566.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.566.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.434.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.525/0.713.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: LAD 6, SF 5.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: LAD 6 - SF 2.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAD.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for LAD; cap=0.58, reasons=local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'opponent_team': 'SF', 'h2h_net_margin': 14, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-20', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'LAD'}, {'date': '2026-09-19', 'predicted_team_runs': 10, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 6, 'winner': 'LAD'}, {'date': '2026-09-18', 'predicted_team_runs': 8, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 6, 'winner': 'LAD'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 3, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260920', 'away': 'SF', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.58, 'artifact': '20260920_SF@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260919', 'away': 'SF', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 6, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.565131, 'artifact': '20260919_SF@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260918', 'away': 'SF', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 6, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.538282, 'artifact': '20260918_SF@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'LAD', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'SF', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'output_opponent_team': 'SF', 'simulation_score_winner': 'LAD', 'final_score_winner': 'LAD', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'LAD 6 - 2 SF', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'LAD 6 - 2 SF', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0597, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -1.194, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 2, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'LAD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'LAD', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 4, 'simulation_margin': 4, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 2}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 2}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 4, 'final_margin': 4, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.6281, 'winner': 'LAD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 2, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-25.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260925_LAD@SF.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: LAD@SF.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -21.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 21.0, 'home_average_margin': -4.2, 'home_run_delta': -0.1212, 'away_run_delta': 0.1212, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -6.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -6.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.021617409322024078}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02107832412217367}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.02068439688621547}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02016857872951201}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.020105743242268933}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.07869104693961267, '1': 0.11650075122911502, '2': 0.14912280570992986, '3': 0.1650332090768202, '4': 0.15791033722403067, '5': 0.1306356514502164, '6': 0.09343827403218008, '7': 0.057782967004837614, '8': 0.030894900883361526, '9': 0.014281890944736158, '10': 0.005708165505159845}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.04343938324546503, '1': 0.06586512847369266, '2': 0.09056832894523185, '3': 0.11293955830289505, '4': 0.12772171273941635, '5': 0.13098823832457585, '6': 0.12182846928044673, '7': 0.10275765680636106, '8': 0.07860108047833068, '9': 0.05452450836519607, '10': 0.03430077394209542, '11': 0.019568836243371145, '12': 0.010124532931694182, '13': 0.0047504408447376, '14': 0.0020213510764902362}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.15, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -2.0503, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.844, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -1.6281}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'LAD 6 - 2 SF', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'LAD 6 - 2 SF', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0597, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -1.194, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 2, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'LAD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'LAD', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 4, 'simulation_margin': 4, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 2}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 2}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 4, 'final_margin': 4, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.6281, 'winner': 'LAD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 2, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 147.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 181.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 147.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 181.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: LAD 6 - 2 SF.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: LAD 6 - 2 SF.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: LAD wins 6-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=LAD, simulation=LAD, published=LAD.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.566.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): LAD wins 6-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: LAD wins 6-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 6-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-2, final 6-2 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: LAD wins 6-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAD wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SF recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SF wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SF	BATTING_REALISM	current:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SF	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting walks match SF pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting home runs match SF pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting hits match SF pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting strikeouts match SF pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAD PA=38 matches SF BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SF batting walks match LAD pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SF batting home runs match LAD pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SF batting hits match LAD pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SF batting strikeouts match LAD pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SF PA=33 matches LAD BF=33.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SF runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.708 -> 0.629 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.707507, 'sample_size': 225, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5511, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.629303, 'published_confidence': 0.566085, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SF current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SF current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SF current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SF hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.566.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.566.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.434.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.525/0.713.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: LAD 6, SF 5.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: LAD 6 - SF 2.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAD.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for LAD; cap=0.58, reasons=local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'opponent_team': 'SF', 'h2h_net_margin': 14, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-20', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'LAD'}, {'date': '2026-09-19', 'predicted_team_runs': 10, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 6, 'winner': 'LAD'}, {'date': '2026-09-18', 'predicted_team_runs': 8, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 6, 'winner': 'LAD'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 3, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260920', 'away': 'SF', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.58, 'artifact': '20260920_SF@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260919', 'away': 'SF', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 6, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.565131, 'artifact': '20260919_SF@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260918', 'away': 'SF', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 6, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.538282, 'artifact': '20260918_SF@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'LAD', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'SF', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'output_opponent_team': 'SF', 'simulation_score_winner': 'LAD', 'final_score_winner': 'LAD', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'LAD 6 - 2 SF', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'LAD 6 - 2 SF', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0597, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -1.194, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 2, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'LAD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'LAD', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 4, 'simulation_margin': 4, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 2}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 2}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 4, 'final_margin': 4, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.6281, 'winner': 'LAD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 2, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-25.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260925_LAD@SF.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: LAD@SF.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -21.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 21.0, 'home_average_margin': -4.2, 'home_run_delta': -0.1212, 'away_run_delta': 0.1212, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -6.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -6.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.021617409322024078}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02107832412217367}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.02068439688621547}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02016857872951201}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.020105743242268933}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.07869104693961267, '1': 0.11650075122911502, '2': 0.14912280570992986, '3': 0.1650332090768202, '4': 0.15791033722403067, '5': 0.1306356514502164, '6': 0.09343827403218008, '7': 0.057782967004837614, '8': 0.030894900883361526, '9': 0.014281890944736158, '10': 0.005708165505159845}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.04343938324546503, '1': 0.06586512847369266, '2': 0.09056832894523185, '3': 0.11293955830289505, '4': 0.12772171273941635, '5': 0.13098823832457585, '6': 0.12182846928044673, '7': 0.10275765680636106, '8': 0.07860108047833068, '9': 0.05452450836519607, '10': 0.03430077394209542, '11': 0.019568836243371145, '12': 0.010124532931694182, '13': 0.0047504408447376, '14': 0.0020213510764902362}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.15, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -2.0503, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.844, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -1.6281}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'LAD 6 - 2 SF', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'LAD 6 - 2 SF', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0597, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -1.194, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 2, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'LAD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'LAD', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 4, 'simulation_margin': 4, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 2}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 2}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 4, 'final_margin': 4, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.6281, 'winner': 'LAD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 2, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 147.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 181.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 147.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 181.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: LAD 6 - 2 SF.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: LAD 6 - 2 SF.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: LAD wins 6-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=LAD, simulation=LAD, published=LAD.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.566.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): LAD wins 6-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: LAD wins 6-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 6-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-2, final 6-2 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: LAD wins 6-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAD wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SF recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SF wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SF pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (HR: current=2, sim=3).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=32; H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=1, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=6, sim=9).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Shohei Ohtani: RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Will Smith: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Freddie Freeman: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1; Kyle Tucker: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Mookie Betts: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0; Enrique Hernández: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2; Teoscar Hernández: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Andy Pages: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=30, sim=32; H: current=7, sim=5; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=2; R: current=4, sim=2; BB: current=2, sim=1; SO: current=10, sim=11).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SF current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Brett Harris: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Victor Bericoto: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Bo Davidson: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Shay Whitcomb: HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jonah Cox: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Andrew Knizner: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Marcelo Mayer: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Scott Bandura: H current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	5.309093746445778	3.2617839559142237		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	3		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5	3	0.566	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	6	2		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6	2		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6	2		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6	2		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
LAD	0	2	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	6	6
SF	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	5

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	LAD	batting	34	8	1	0	1	4	5	4	6	0	0	0	0
current	LAD	pitching		5			2		2	1	11					9.0	2	0	0
current	SF	batting	30	7	1	0	1	4	4	2	10	0	0	0	0
current	SF	pitching		6			3		6	5	9					9.0	6	0	0
simulation	LAD	batting	32	6	0	0	3	6	6	5	9	1	0
simulation	LAD	pitching		5			3		2	1	11					9.0	2	33	147
simulation	SF	batting	32	5	1	0	3	2	2	1	11	0	0
simulation	SF	pitching		6			3		6	5	9					9.0	6	38	181

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	LAD		DH	Shohei Ohtani	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	LAD		C	Will Smith	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	LAD		1B	Freddie Freeman	0	4	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	0.250
current	LAD		RF	Kyle Tucker	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	LAD		SS	Mookie Betts	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.250
current	LAD		2B	Enrique Hernández	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	LAD		LF	Teoscar Hernández	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	LAD		CF	Andy Pages	0	3	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.333
current	LAD		3B	Max Muncy	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0.250
current	SF		1B	Brett Harris	0	3	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	0.333
current	SF		DH	Victor Bericoto	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	SF		RF	Bo Davidson	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	SF		3B	Shay Whitcomb	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.333
current	SF		CF	Jonah Cox	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	2	0.250
current	SF		C	Andrew Knizner	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	SF		2B	Marcelo Mayer	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	SF		LF	Scott Bandura	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	SF		SS	Christian Koss	0	3	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	LAD	1	DH	Shohei Ohtani	5	4	1	0	1	1	2	1	0	0.250
simulation	LAD	2	SS	Mookie Betts	5	5	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.200
simulation	LAD	3	1B	Freddie Freeman	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	0.000
simulation	LAD	4	C	Will Smith	4	3	1	0	1	1	2	1	1	0.333
simulation	LAD	5	RF	Kyle Tucker	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	LAD	6	LF	Teoscar Hernández	4	3	2	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.667
simulation	LAD	7	3B	Max Muncy	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.333
simulation	LAD	8	CF	Andy Pages	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	LAD	9	2B	Enrique Hernández	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	SF	1	CF	Jonah Cox	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0.000
simulation	SF	2	1B	Brett Harris	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	SF	3	DH	Victor Bericoto	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	SF	4	RF	Bo Davidson	4	4	1	0	1	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	SF	5	C	Andrew Knizner	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	SF	6	2B	Marcelo Mayer	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	2	0.250
simulation	SF	7	3B	Shay Whitcomb	3	3	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	SF	8	LF	Scott Bandura	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	SF	9	SS	Christian Koss	3	3	1	0	1	1	1	0	2	0.333

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	LAD	1	Tarik Skubal	Starter	6.1	2	1	1	1	7	1	0	0	1.42	2.85	0.99
current	LAD	2	Brock Stewart	Setup Man	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0.00	2.10	0.94
current	LAD	3	Tanner Scott	Closer	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.77	1.01
current	LAD	4	Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	13.50	2.73	1.11
current	SF	1	Yunior Marte	Starter	4.2	3	3	3	3	6	2	0	0	5.79	4.66	1.40
current	SF	2	Jason Foley	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	4.50	1.54
current	SF	3	Carson Seymour	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	4.85	1.58
current	SF	4	Dylan Smith	Closer	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.00	4.06	1.49
current	SF	5	Trent Harris	Setup Man	1.0	2	3	3	1	0	1	0	0	27.00	2.11	1.08
simulation	LAD	1	Tarik Skubal	Starter	6.1	2	1	1	1	7	2	22	102	1.42	2.85	0.99
simulation	LAD	2	Tanner Scott	Closer	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	16	0.00	2.77	1.01
simulation	LAD	3	Brock Stewart	Setup Man	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	0	4	18	0.00	2.10	0.94
simulation	LAD	4	Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	1	1	1	0	1	1	3	11	13.50	2.73	1.11
simulation	SF	1	Yunior Marte	Starter	4.2	3	3	3	3	6	2	20	92	5.79	4.66	1.40
simulation	SF	2	Dylan Smith	Closer	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	0	5	20	0.00	4.06	1.49
simulation	SF	3	Trent Harris	Setup Man	1.0	2	3	3	1	0	1	6	23	27.00	2.11	1.08
simulation	SF	4	Carson Seymour	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	17	0.00	4.85	1.58
simulation	SF	5	Jason Foley	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	29	0.00	4.50	1.54

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
LAD	Tarik Skubal	Starter	6.1	1	2	1	7	22	102
LAD	Brock Stewart	Setup Man	1.0	0	1	0	3	4	18
LAD	Tanner Scott	Closer	1.0	0	1	0	0	4	16
LAD	Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	1	1	0	1	3	11
SF	Yunior Marte	Starter	4.2	3	3	3	6	20	92
SF	Jason Foley	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	0	4	29
SF	Carson Seymour	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	17
SF	Dylan Smith	Closer	1.0	0	1	1	2	5	20
SF	Trent Harris	Setup Man	1.0	3	2	1	0	6	23

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	error	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	error	1	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	0	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	1	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	0	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	0	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	0	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	0	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	0	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	0	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260925_NYM@WAS

20260925_NYM@WAS.json • 2026-09-25

NYM 4 - WAS 5

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 102INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYM pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	WAS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=4, sim=0; SO: current=8, sim=9).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYM current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Mark Vientos: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Carson Benge: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1; Juan Soto: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Francisco Alvarez: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; A.J. Ewing: H current=1 box=0; Bo Bichette: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Francisco Lindor: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Marcus Semien: H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=27; H: current=8, sim=3; 2B: current=2, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=3; BB: current=4, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=6).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	WAS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: James Wood: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Andrés Chaparro: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Dylan Crews: AB current=4 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Brady House: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; CJ Abrams: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jorbit Vivas: BB current=1 box=0; Jacob Young: H current=1 box=0; Daylen Lile: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	WAS	BATTING_REALISM	current:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	WAS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	WAS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	WAS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting walks match WAS pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting home runs match WAS pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting hits match WAS pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting strikeouts match WAS pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYM PA=34 matches WAS BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYM runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting walks match NYM pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting home runs match NYM pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting hits match NYM pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting strikeouts match NYM pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:WAS PA=30 matches NYM BF=30.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:WAS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.500 -> 0.526 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.500403, 'sample_size': 697, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5509, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.525652, 'published_confidence': 0.512742, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYM current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYM current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYM current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYM hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	WAS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	WAS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	WAS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	WAS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.487.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.513.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.513.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.525/0.713.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: NYM 7, WAS 3.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: NYM 4 - WAS 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: WAS.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for WAS; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result; latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'WAS', 'opponent_team': 'NYM', 'h2h_net_margin': -5, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-16', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'NYM'}, {'date': '2026-08-15', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'NYM'}, {'date': '2026-08-14', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'NYM'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260816', 'away': 'WAS', 'home': 'NYM', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYM', 'actual_winner': 'NYM', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.624342, 'artifact': '20260816_WAS@NYM.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260815', 'away': 'WAS', 'home': 'NYM', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYM', 'actual_winner': 'NYM', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.571933, 'artifact': '20260815_WAS@NYM.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260814', 'away': 'WAS', 'home': 'NYM', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'WAS', 'actual_winner': 'NYM', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260814_WAS@NYM.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'WAS', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'NYM', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'WAS', 'output_opponent_team': 'NYM', 'simulation_score_winner': 'WAS', 'final_score_winner': 'WAS', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'WAS', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'NYM 4 - 5 WAS', 'winner': 'WAS'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'NYM 4 - 5 WAS', 'winner': 'WAS'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0379, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.23, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'WAS', 'model_winner': 'WAS', 'simulation_winner': 'WAS', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'WAS', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.1667, 'draw_majority_team': 'NYM', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.3461, 'winner': 'WAS', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-25.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260925_NYM@WAS.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: NYM@WAS.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -2.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 2.0, 'home_average_margin': -0.4, 'home_run_delta': -0.0115, 'away_run_delta': 0.0115, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.0214835361590743}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.020521009322820093}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.020306104305884167}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.020223923478128188}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01995202556696031}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.057662189749258096, '1': 0.0866021771574065, '2': 0.11573027397060394, '3': 0.13760862139787888, '4': 0.14558773800571062, '5': 0.13705170559352345, '6': 0.11479542561456323, '7': 0.08555496386779218, '8': 0.05673438266178806, '9': 0.03347556738213934, '10': 0.01757478624086359, '11': 0.008209801335765531, '12': 0.003412367022706698}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.059868424148588215, '1': 0.08978056792344045, '2': 0.11943759387485021, '3': 0.14095286872315554, '4': 0.14756418674649383, '5': 0.13704468412152745, '6': 0.11290614924452042, '7': 0.08251771116133153, '8': 0.05349964826279301, '9': 0.030770096358277734, '10': 0.015699324338571834, '11': 0.0071057061450868104, '12': 0.0028530389513629615}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.15, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.2956, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.44, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.3461}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'NYM 4 - 5 WAS', 'winner': 'WAS'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'NYM 4 - 5 WAS', 'winner': 'WAS'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0379, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.23, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'WAS', 'model_winner': 'WAS', 'simulation_winner': 'WAS', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'WAS', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.1667, 'draw_majority_team': 'NYM', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.3461, 'winner': 'WAS', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 125.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 137.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 125.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	WAS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	WAS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	WAS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	WAS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 137.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 7 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	WAS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	WAS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:WAS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	WAS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:WAS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: NYM 4 - 5 WAS.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: NYM 4 - 5 WAS.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: WAS wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=WAS, simulation=WAS, published=WAS.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.513.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): WAS wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: WAS wins 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: WAS wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYM recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYM wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	WAS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	WAS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	WAS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	WAS wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	WAS	BATTING_REALISM	current:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	WAS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	WAS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	WAS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting walks match WAS pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting home runs match WAS pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting hits match WAS pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting strikeouts match WAS pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYM PA=34 matches WAS BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYM runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting walks match NYM pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting home runs match NYM pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting hits match NYM pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting strikeouts match NYM pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:WAS PA=30 matches NYM BF=30.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:WAS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.500 -> 0.526 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.500403, 'sample_size': 697, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5509, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.525652, 'published_confidence': 0.512742, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYM current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYM current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYM current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYM hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	WAS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	WAS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	WAS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	WAS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.487.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.513.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.513.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.525/0.713.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: NYM 7, WAS 3.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: NYM 4 - WAS 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: WAS.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for WAS; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result; latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'WAS', 'opponent_team': 'NYM', 'h2h_net_margin': -5, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-16', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'NYM'}, {'date': '2026-08-15', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'NYM'}, {'date': '2026-08-14', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'NYM'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260816', 'away': 'WAS', 'home': 'NYM', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYM', 'actual_winner': 'NYM', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.624342, 'artifact': '20260816_WAS@NYM.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260815', 'away': 'WAS', 'home': 'NYM', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYM', 'actual_winner': 'NYM', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.571933, 'artifact': '20260815_WAS@NYM.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260814', 'away': 'WAS', 'home': 'NYM', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'WAS', 'actual_winner': 'NYM', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260814_WAS@NYM.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'WAS', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'NYM', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'WAS', 'output_opponent_team': 'NYM', 'simulation_score_winner': 'WAS', 'final_score_winner': 'WAS', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'WAS', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'NYM 4 - 5 WAS', 'winner': 'WAS'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'NYM 4 - 5 WAS', 'winner': 'WAS'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0379, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.23, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'WAS', 'model_winner': 'WAS', 'simulation_winner': 'WAS', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'WAS', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.1667, 'draw_majority_team': 'NYM', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.3461, 'winner': 'WAS', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-25.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260925_NYM@WAS.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: NYM@WAS.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -2.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 2.0, 'home_average_margin': -0.4, 'home_run_delta': -0.0115, 'away_run_delta': 0.0115, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.0214835361590743}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.020521009322820093}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.020306104305884167}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.020223923478128188}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01995202556696031}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.057662189749258096, '1': 0.0866021771574065, '2': 0.11573027397060394, '3': 0.13760862139787888, '4': 0.14558773800571062, '5': 0.13705170559352345, '6': 0.11479542561456323, '7': 0.08555496386779218, '8': 0.05673438266178806, '9': 0.03347556738213934, '10': 0.01757478624086359, '11': 0.008209801335765531, '12': 0.003412367022706698}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.059868424148588215, '1': 0.08978056792344045, '2': 0.11943759387485021, '3': 0.14095286872315554, '4': 0.14756418674649383, '5': 0.13704468412152745, '6': 0.11290614924452042, '7': 0.08251771116133153, '8': 0.05349964826279301, '9': 0.030770096358277734, '10': 0.015699324338571834, '11': 0.0071057061450868104, '12': 0.0028530389513629615}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.15, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.2956, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.44, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.3461}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'NYM 4 - 5 WAS', 'winner': 'WAS'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'NYM 4 - 5 WAS', 'winner': 'WAS'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0379, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.23, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'WAS', 'model_winner': 'WAS', 'simulation_winner': 'WAS', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'WAS', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.1667, 'draw_majority_team': 'NYM', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.3461, 'winner': 'WAS', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 125.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 137.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 125.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	WAS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	WAS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	WAS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	WAS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 137.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 7 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	WAS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	WAS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:WAS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	WAS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:WAS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: NYM 4 - 5 WAS.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: NYM 4 - 5 WAS.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: WAS wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=WAS, simulation=WAS, published=WAS.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.513.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): WAS wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: WAS wins 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: WAS wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYM recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYM wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	WAS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	WAS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	WAS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	WAS wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYM pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	WAS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=4, sim=0; SO: current=8, sim=9).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYM current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Mark Vientos: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Carson Benge: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1; Juan Soto: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Francisco Alvarez: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; A.J. Ewing: H current=1 box=0; Bo Bichette: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Francisco Lindor: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Marcus Semien: H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=27; H: current=8, sim=3; 2B: current=2, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=3; BB: current=4, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=6).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	WAS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: James Wood: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Andrés Chaparro: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Dylan Crews: AB current=4 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Brady House: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; CJ Abrams: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jorbit Vivas: BB current=1 box=0; Jacob Young: H current=1 box=0; Daylen Lile: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	5.216824260876499	5.2557534348244035		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	5		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4	5	0.513	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	5		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	5		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	5		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
NYM	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	4	7
WAS	0	1	0	1	0	0	3	0	0	5	3

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	NYM	batting	33	8	2	0	1	5	4	4	8	0	0	0	0
current	NYM	pitching		3			3		5	3	6					8.0	5	0	0
current	WAS	batting	33	8	2	0	1	5	5	4	8	0	0	0	0
current	WAS	pitching		7			2		4	0	9					9.0	4	0	0
simulation	NYM	batting	34	7	1	0	2	4	4	0	9	0	0
simulation	NYM	pitching		3			3		5	3	6					8.0	5	30	125
simulation	WAS	batting	27	3	0	0	3	5	5	3	6	0	0
simulation	WAS	pitching		7			2		4	0	9					9.0	4	34	137

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	NYM		DH	Mark Vientos	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.333
current	NYM		RF	Carson Benge	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	NYM		LF	Juan Soto	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	NYM		C	Francisco Alvarez	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.250
current	NYM		CF	A.J. Ewing	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	NYM		3B	Bo Bichette	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	NYM		SS	Francisco Lindor	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	NYM		1B	Christopher Morel	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	NYM		2B	Marcus Semien	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.250
current	WAS		DH	James Wood	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	WAS		1B	Andrés Chaparro	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	0.250
current	WAS		RF	Dylan Crews	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	WAS		3B	Brady House	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	WAS		SS	CJ Abrams	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	WAS		2B	Jorbit Vivas	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
current	WAS		CF	Jacob Young	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	WAS		LF	Daylen Lile	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	WAS		C	Keibert Ruiz	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
simulation	NYM	1	SS	Francisco Lindor	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	NYM	2	LF	Juan Soto	4	4	1	0	0	1	2	0	1	0.250
simulation	NYM	3	3B	Bo Bichette	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	2	0.250
simulation	NYM	4	DH	Mark Vientos	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	NYM	5	RF	Carson Benge	4	4	2	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.500
simulation	NYM	6	C	Francisco Alvarez	4	4	2	1	1	1	1	0	1	0.500
simulation	NYM	7	2B	Marcus Semien	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	NYM	8	CF	A.J. Ewing	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	NYM	9	1B	Christopher Morel	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	WAS	1	DH	James Wood	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	WAS	2	1B	Andrés Chaparro	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.250
simulation	WAS	3	3B	Brady House	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	WAS	4	RF	Dylan Crews	3	2	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.500
simulation	WAS	5	SS	CJ Abrams	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	WAS	6	CF	Jacob Young	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	WAS	7	LF	Daylen Lile	3	3	1	0	1	1	3	0	1	0.333
simulation	WAS	8	C	Keibert Ruiz	3	2	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	WAS	9	2B	Jorbit Vivas	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	NYM	1	Jefry Yan	Starter	4.0	2	2	2	0	2	2	0	0	4.50	4.34	1.61
current	NYM	4	Nathan Lavender	Setup Man	2.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	1.83	0.81
current	NYM	6	Kodai Senga	Closer	2.0	1	3	3	3	2	1	0	0	13.50	7.34	1.65
current	WAS	1	Andrew Alvarez	Starter	5.2	4	2	2	0	6	0	0	0	3.18	3.17	1.26
current	WAS	2	Brad Lord	Setup Man	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.78	1.22
current	WAS	3	Erik Tolman	Closer	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	3.21	1.43
current	WAS	4	Luis Perales	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	2	2	0	0	2	0	0	18.00	11.45	2.55
simulation	NYM	1	Jefry Yan	Starter	4.0	2	2	2	0	2	2	14	60	4.50	4.34	1.61
simulation	NYM	2	Kodai Senga	Closer	2.0	1	3	3	3	2	1	10	40	13.50	7.34	1.65
simulation	NYM	3	Nathan Lavender	Setup Man	2.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	6	25	0.00	1.83	0.81
simulation	WAS	1	Andrew Alvarez	Starter	5.2	4	2	2	0	6	0	21	85	3.18	3.17	1.26
simulation	WAS	2	Erik Tolman	Closer	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	0	4	16	0.00	3.21	1.43
simulation	WAS	3	Brad Lord	Setup Man	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	17	0.00	3.78	1.22
simulation	WAS	4	Luis Perales	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	2	2	0	0	2	5	19	18.00	11.45	2.55

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
NYM	Jefry Yan	Starter	4.0	2	2	0	2	14	60
NYM	Nathan Lavender	Setup Man	2.0	0	0	0	2	6	25
NYM	Kodai Senga	Closer	2.0	3	1	3	2	10	40
WAS	Andrew Alvarez	Starter	5.2	2	4	0	6	21	85
WAS	Brad Lord	Setup Man	1.1	0	0	0	1	4	17
WAS	Erik Tolman	Closer	1.0	0	1	0	2	4	16
WAS	Luis Perales	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	2	0	0	5	19

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260925_PIT@DET

20260925_PIT@DET.json • 2026-09-25

PIT 5 - DET 4

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	DET pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PIT pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=35; H: current=7, sim=8; HR: current=1, sim=2; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=4, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=12).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	DET current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Kevin McGonigle: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2; Eduardo Valencia: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Hao-Yu Lee: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Brett Callahan: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Max Clark: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Dillon Dingler: H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Riley Greene: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; John Peck: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=3		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=7).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PIT current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryan Reynolds: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Brandon Lowe: RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Ryan O'Hearn: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Nick Gonzales: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Konnor Griffin: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1; Jake Mangum: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Oneil Cruz: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Rafael Flores Jr.: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	DET	BATTING_REALISM	current:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	PIT	BATTING_REALISM	current:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	DET	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	PIT	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	PIT	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	PIT	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:DET batting walks match PIT pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:DET batting home runs match PIT pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:DET batting hits match PIT pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:DET batting strikeouts match PIT pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:DET PA=36 matches PIT BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:DET runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting walks match DET pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting home runs match DET pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting hits match DET pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting strikeouts match DET pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:PIT PA=37 matches DET BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:PIT runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.460 -> 0.502 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.4601, 'sample_size': 523, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.543, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.50155, 'published_confidence': 0.505, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	DET current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	DET current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	DET current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	DET hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	PIT current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	PIT current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	PIT current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	PIT hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.505.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.505.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.495.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.525/0.713.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: PIT 7, DET 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: PIT 5 - DET 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: PIT.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for PIT; cap=0.56, reasons=a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'PIT', 'opponent_team': 'DET', 'h2h_net_margin': 1, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-19', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'PIT'}, {'date': '2026-08-18', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'PIT'}, {'date': '2026-08-17', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 8, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'DET'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260819', 'away': 'DET', 'home': 'PIT', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'PIT', 'actual_winner': 'PIT', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.537802, 'artifact': '20260819_DET@PIT.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260818', 'away': 'DET', 'home': 'PIT', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'DET', 'actual_winner': 'PIT', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260818_DET@PIT.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260817', 'away': 'DET', 'home': 'PIT', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'PIT', 'actual_winner': 'DET', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.536626, 'artifact': '20260817_DET@PIT.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'PIT', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'DET', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'PIT', 'output_opponent_team': 'DET', 'simulation_score_winner': 'PIT', 'final_score_winner': 'PIT', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'PIT', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'PIT 5 - 4 DET', 'winner': 'PIT'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'PIT 5 - 4 DET', 'winner': 'PIT'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0627, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.4247, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'PIT', 'model_winner': 'PIT', 'simulation_winner': 'PIT', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'PIT', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'PIT', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.0251, 'winner': 'PIT', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-25.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260925_PIT@DET.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: PIT@DET.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 3, 'sample_weight': 0.0409, 'home_net_margin': -1.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 1.0, 'home_average_margin': -0.333, 'home_run_delta': -0.0068, 'away_run_delta': 0.0068, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.020165295512702915}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01951703531267765}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.019281769926318203}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01882998761860547}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.018661912705708557}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.0551145687363461, '1': 0.08291969989389227, '2': 0.11138758270551441, '3': 0.13359911647943049, '4': 0.14307315111465027, '5': 0.13680452045387717, '6': 0.1167966814126634, '7': 0.08903244655401985, '8': 0.06059738198419804, '9': 0.036825373879283946, '10': 0.019981505987337746, '11': 0.00968048284219688, '12': 0.004187487956589366}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.05313629266449516, '1': 0.08005118685425801, '2': 0.10796984632716583, '3': 0.13037531606864838, '4': 0.14094395318478484, '5': 0.1364129828736201, '6': 0.11820154296040165, '7': 0.09169565749609052, '8': 0.06368432869220024, '9': 0.039598119734577455, '10': 0.022043204862124497, '11': 0.01098583551436156, '12': 0.0049017327672717225}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.15, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.2044, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.308, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.0251}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'PIT 5 - 4 DET', 'winner': 'PIT'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'PIT 5 - 4 DET', 'winner': 'PIT'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0627, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.4247, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'PIT', 'model_winner': 'PIT', 'simulation_winner': 'PIT', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'PIT', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'PIT', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.0251, 'winner': 'PIT', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 149.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 154.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 154.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PIT	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PIT pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PIT	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	PIT pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 149.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 10 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	current:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	current:DET includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	PIT	PITCHING_REALISM	current:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	PIT	STARTER_PRESENT	current:PIT includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:DET includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PIT	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:PIT includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: PIT 5 - 4 DET.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: PIT 5 - 4 DET.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: PIT wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=PIT, simulation=PIT, published=PIT.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.505.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): PIT wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: PIT wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: PIT wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	DET recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	DET wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PIT	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	PIT recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PIT	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	PIT wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	DET	BATTING_REALISM	current:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	PIT	BATTING_REALISM	current:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	DET	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	PIT	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	PIT	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	PIT	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:DET batting walks match PIT pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:DET batting home runs match PIT pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:DET batting hits match PIT pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:DET batting strikeouts match PIT pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:DET PA=36 matches PIT BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:DET runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting walks match DET pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting home runs match DET pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting hits match DET pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting strikeouts match DET pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:PIT PA=37 matches DET BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:PIT runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.460 -> 0.502 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.4601, 'sample_size': 523, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.543, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.50155, 'published_confidence': 0.505, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	DET current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	DET current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	DET current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	DET hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	PIT current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	PIT current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	PIT current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	PIT hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.505.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.505.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.495.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.525/0.713.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: PIT 7, DET 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: PIT 5 - DET 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: PIT.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for PIT; cap=0.56, reasons=a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'PIT', 'opponent_team': 'DET', 'h2h_net_margin': 1, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-19', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'PIT'}, {'date': '2026-08-18', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'PIT'}, {'date': '2026-08-17', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 8, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'DET'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260819', 'away': 'DET', 'home': 'PIT', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'PIT', 'actual_winner': 'PIT', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.537802, 'artifact': '20260819_DET@PIT.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260818', 'away': 'DET', 'home': 'PIT', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'DET', 'actual_winner': 'PIT', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260818_DET@PIT.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260817', 'away': 'DET', 'home': 'PIT', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'PIT', 'actual_winner': 'DET', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.536626, 'artifact': '20260817_DET@PIT.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'PIT', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'DET', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'PIT', 'output_opponent_team': 'DET', 'simulation_score_winner': 'PIT', 'final_score_winner': 'PIT', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'PIT', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'PIT 5 - 4 DET', 'winner': 'PIT'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'PIT 5 - 4 DET', 'winner': 'PIT'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0627, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.4247, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'PIT', 'model_winner': 'PIT', 'simulation_winner': 'PIT', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'PIT', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'PIT', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.0251, 'winner': 'PIT', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-25.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260925_PIT@DET.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: PIT@DET.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 3, 'sample_weight': 0.0409, 'home_net_margin': -1.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 1.0, 'home_average_margin': -0.333, 'home_run_delta': -0.0068, 'away_run_delta': 0.0068, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.020165295512702915}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01951703531267765}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.019281769926318203}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01882998761860547}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.018661912705708557}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.0551145687363461, '1': 0.08291969989389227, '2': 0.11138758270551441, '3': 0.13359911647943049, '4': 0.14307315111465027, '5': 0.13680452045387717, '6': 0.1167966814126634, '7': 0.08903244655401985, '8': 0.06059738198419804, '9': 0.036825373879283946, '10': 0.019981505987337746, '11': 0.00968048284219688, '12': 0.004187487956589366}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.05313629266449516, '1': 0.08005118685425801, '2': 0.10796984632716583, '3': 0.13037531606864838, '4': 0.14094395318478484, '5': 0.1364129828736201, '6': 0.11820154296040165, '7': 0.09169565749609052, '8': 0.06368432869220024, '9': 0.039598119734577455, '10': 0.022043204862124497, '11': 0.01098583551436156, '12': 0.0049017327672717225}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.15, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.2044, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.308, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.0251}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'PIT 5 - 4 DET', 'winner': 'PIT'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'PIT 5 - 4 DET', 'winner': 'PIT'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0627, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.4247, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'PIT', 'model_winner': 'PIT', 'simulation_winner': 'PIT', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'PIT', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'PIT', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.0251, 'winner': 'PIT', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 149.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 154.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 154.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PIT	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PIT pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PIT	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	PIT pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 149.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 10 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	current:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	current:DET includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	PIT	PITCHING_REALISM	current:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	PIT	STARTER_PRESENT	current:PIT includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:DET includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PIT	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:PIT includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: PIT 5 - 4 DET.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: PIT 5 - 4 DET.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: PIT wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=PIT, simulation=PIT, published=PIT.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.505.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): PIT wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: PIT wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: PIT wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	DET recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	DET wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PIT	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	PIT recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PIT	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	PIT wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	DET pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PIT pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=35; H: current=7, sim=8; HR: current=1, sim=2; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=4, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=12).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	DET current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Kevin McGonigle: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2; Eduardo Valencia: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Hao-Yu Lee: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Brett Callahan: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Max Clark: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Dillon Dingler: H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Riley Greene: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; John Peck: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=3	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=7).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PIT current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryan Reynolds: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Brandon Lowe: RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Ryan O'Hearn: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Nick Gonzales: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Konnor Griffin: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1; Jake Mangum: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Oneil Cruz: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Rafael Flores Jr.: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	3.7153336510472723	5.048453219706147		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	5		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5	4	0.505	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5	4		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
PIT	0	0	2	0	0	0	1	2	0	5	7
DET	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	1	4	8

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	PIT	batting	34	8	1	0	1	4	5	3	9	0	0	0	0
current	PIT	pitching		8			2		4	1	12					9.0	4	0	0
current	DET	batting	33	7	1	0	1	4	5	4	8	0	0	0	0
current	DET	pitching		7			2		5	3	7					9.0	5	0	0
simulation	PIT	batting	34	7	2	0	2	5	5	3	7	0	0
simulation	PIT	pitching		8			2		4	1	12					9.0	4	36	149
simulation	DET	batting	35	8	1	0	2	4	4	1	12	0	0
simulation	DET	pitching		7			2		5	3	7					9.0	5	37	154

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	PIT		LF	Bryan Reynolds	0	4	1	1	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	PIT		2B	Brandon Lowe	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	PIT		DH	Ryan O'Hearn	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	PIT		3B	Nick Gonzales	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	PIT		SS	Konnor Griffin	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	PIT		RF	Jake Mangum	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	PIT		CF	Oneil Cruz	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	PIT		C	Rafael Flores Jr.	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	PIT		1B	Spencer Horwitz	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
current	DET		3B	Kevin McGonigle	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	DET		DH	Eduardo Valencia	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	DET		2B	Hao-Yu Lee	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	DET		RF	Brett Callahan	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	DET		CF	Max Clark	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	DET		C	Dillon Dingler	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	DET		LF	Riley Greene	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	DET		SS	John Peck	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	DET		1B	Spencer Torkelson	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	PIT	1	SS	Konnor Griffin	5	5	2	1	0	1	0	0	1	0.400
simulation	PIT	2	2B	Brandon Lowe	4	4	1	0	1	1	2	0	2	0.250
simulation	PIT	3	LF	Bryan Reynolds	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	PIT	4	CF	Oneil Cruz	4	3	1	1	0	1	2	1	1	0.333
simulation	PIT	5	3B	Nick Gonzales	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	PIT	6	DH	Ryan O'Hearn	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	PIT	7	C	Rafael Flores Jr.	4	4	2	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.500
simulation	PIT	8	1B	Spencer Horwitz	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	PIT	9	RF	Jake Mangum	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	DET	1	CF	Max Clark	4	4	2	1	0	1	1	0	0	0.500
simulation	DET	2	2B	Hao-Yu Lee	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	DET	3	3B	Kevin McGonigle	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	DET	4	DH	Eduardo Valencia	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	DET	5	LF	Riley Greene	4	3	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	DET	6	C	Dillon Dingler	4	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	DET	7	RF	Brett Callahan	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.500
simulation	DET	8	1B	Spencer Torkelson	4	4	1	0	1	1	2	0	3	0.250
simulation	DET	9	SS	John Peck	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	PIT	1	Bubba Chandler	Starter	5.0	4	3	3	1	7	1	0	0	5.40	4.34	1.37
current	PIT	2	Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.27	1.12
current	PIT	3	Luke Weaver	Setup Man	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.73	0.96
current	PIT	4	Mason Montgomery	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.28	0.99
current	PIT	5	Yohan Ramírez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	1	1	0	3	1	0	0	9.00	2.90	1.18
current	DET	1	Jackson Jobe	Starter	5.1	2	2	2	3	5	1	0	0	3.38	3.98	1.20
current	DET	2	Drew Sommers	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	3	2	2	0	1	0	0	0	18.00	3.00	1.10
current	DET	3	Kenley Jansen	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.86	1.02
current	DET	4	Tyler Holton	Setup Man	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	9.00	2.76	1.26
current	DET	5	Jacob Waguespack	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.56	0.90
simulation	PIT	1	Bubba Chandler	Starter	5.0	4	3	3	1	7	1	20	85	5.40	4.34	1.37
simulation	PIT	2	Mason Montgomery	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	2.28	0.99
simulation	PIT	3	Luke Weaver	Setup Man	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	0	4	16	0.00	2.73	0.96
simulation	PIT	4	Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	16	0.00	3.27	1.12
simulation	PIT	5	Yohan Ramírez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	1	1	0	3	1	5	19	9.00	2.90	1.18
simulation	DET	1	Jackson Jobe	Starter	5.1	2	2	2	3	5	1	21	92	3.38	3.98	1.20
simulation	DET	2	Kenley Jansen	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	2.86	1.02
simulation	DET	3	Tyler Holton	Setup Man	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	1	4	16	9.00	2.76	1.26
simulation	DET	4	Drew Sommers	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	3	2	2	0	1	0	6	22	18.00	3.00	1.10
simulation	DET	5	Jacob Waguespack	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	0	3	11	0.00	2.56	0.90

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
PIT	Bubba Chandler	Starter	5.0	3	4	1	7	20	85
PIT	Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	1	0	0	4	16
PIT	Luke Weaver	Setup Man	1.0	0	1	0	2	4	16
PIT	Mason Montgomery	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13
PIT	Yohan Ramírez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	2	0	3	5	19
DET	Jackson Jobe	Starter	5.1	2	2	3	5	21	92
DET	Drew Sommers	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	3	0	1	6	22
DET	Kenley Jansen	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13
DET	Tyler Holton	Setup Man	1.0	1	1	0	0	4	16
DET	Jacob Waguespack	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	0	1	0	0	3	11

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260925_STL@MIL

20260925_STL@MIL.json • 2026-09-25

STL 4 - MIL 5

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 102INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	STL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=4, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=7).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Brice Turang: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, BB current=1 box=0; Garrett Mitchell: 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; William Contreras: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Luis Lara: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Sal Frelick: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Jake Bauers: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; David Hamilton: H current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Christian Yelich: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=5; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=0; BB: current=3, sim=1; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	STL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: JJ Wetherholt: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Leonardo Bernal: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Thomas Saggese: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; José Fermín: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Jordan Walker: H current=1 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Iván Herrera: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Masyn Winn: H current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Pedro Pagés: H current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	STL	BATTING_REALISM	current:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	STL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting walks match STL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting home runs match STL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting hits match STL pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting strikeouts match STL pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIL PA=34 matches STL BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:STL batting walks match MIL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:STL batting home runs match MIL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:STL batting hits match MIL pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:STL batting strikeouts match MIL pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:STL PA=34 matches MIL BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:STL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.630 -> 0.592 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.629601, 'sample_size': 807, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5539, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.59175, 'published_confidence': 0.542272, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	STL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	STL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	STL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	STL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.458.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.542.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.542.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.525/0.713.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: STL 5, MIL 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: STL 4 - MIL 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for MIL; cap=0.58, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile; local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'opponent_team': 'STL', 'h2h_net_margin': 8, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-09', 'predicted_team_runs': 8, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'MIL'}, {'date': '2026-07-08', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -4, 'winner': 'STL'}, {'date': '2026-07-07', 'predicted_team_runs': 10, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 8, 'winner': 'MIL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 3, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260709', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'STL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260709_MIL@STL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260707', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'STL', 'game_number': 2, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 8, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260707_MIL@STL_2.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260706', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'STL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260706_MIL@STL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'MIL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'STL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'output_opponent_team': 'STL', 'simulation_score_winner': 'MIL', 'final_score_winner': 'MIL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'STL 4 - 5 MIL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'STL 4 - 5 MIL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.032, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.838, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'MIL', 'model_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 5, 'published_winner': 'MIL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'MIL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.297, 'winner': 'MIL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-25.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260925_STL@MIL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: STL@MIL.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 10.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 10.0, 'home_average_margin': 2.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0577, 'away_run_delta': -0.0577, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 8.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01954975966568399}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.019236645229298716}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.0187161066785954}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.018416344262370828}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01810344322405414}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.044939015489053935, '1': 0.06807003105797334, '2': 0.09331646246892544, '3': 0.11577919025637004, '4': 0.13000877672736497, '5': 0.13212492662589964, '6': 0.12152531888750913, '7': 0.10116230182459161, '8': 0.07621501842305357, '9': 0.051967561456174365, '10': 0.03206963674980345, '11': 0.017911240535921084, '12': 0.009053723243334102, '13': 0.0041418911973959294, '14': 0.0017149050566293688}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.06034150312408804, '1': 0.09046081228988125, '2': 0.12022608154222918, '3': 0.14165462306434004, '4': 0.14796420452166043, '5': 0.13701762177936705, '6': 0.11248381498743543, '7': 0.08186485563762541, '8': 0.05282005072176022, '9': 0.030213008870686075, '10': 0.015320854676726997, '11': 0.006887567353270577, '12': 0.0027450014309293256}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.15, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 1.6572, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.628, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 1.297}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'STL 4 - 5 MIL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'STL 4 - 5 MIL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.032, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.838, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'MIL', 'model_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 5, 'published_winner': 'MIL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'MIL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.297, 'winner': 'MIL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 140.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 146.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 146.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 140.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 7 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: STL 4 - 5 MIL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: STL 4 - 5 MIL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIL wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=MIL, simulation=MIL, published=MIL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.542.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): MIL wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: MIL wins 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: MIL wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIL wins and win_pct agree: 8/10 = 0.800.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	STL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	STL wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	STL	BATTING_REALISM	current:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	STL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting walks match STL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting home runs match STL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting hits match STL pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting strikeouts match STL pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIL PA=34 matches STL BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:STL batting walks match MIL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:STL batting home runs match MIL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:STL batting hits match MIL pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:STL batting strikeouts match MIL pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:STL PA=34 matches MIL BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:STL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.630 -> 0.592 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.629601, 'sample_size': 807, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5539, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.59175, 'published_confidence': 0.542272, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	STL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	STL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	STL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	STL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.458.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.542.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.542.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.525/0.713.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: STL 5, MIL 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: STL 4 - MIL 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for MIL; cap=0.58, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile; local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'opponent_team': 'STL', 'h2h_net_margin': 8, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-09', 'predicted_team_runs': 8, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'MIL'}, {'date': '2026-07-08', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -4, 'winner': 'STL'}, {'date': '2026-07-07', 'predicted_team_runs': 10, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 8, 'winner': 'MIL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 3, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260709', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'STL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260709_MIL@STL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260707', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'STL', 'game_number': 2, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 8, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260707_MIL@STL_2.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260706', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'STL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260706_MIL@STL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'MIL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'STL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'output_opponent_team': 'STL', 'simulation_score_winner': 'MIL', 'final_score_winner': 'MIL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'STL 4 - 5 MIL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'STL 4 - 5 MIL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.032, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.838, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'MIL', 'model_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 5, 'published_winner': 'MIL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'MIL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.297, 'winner': 'MIL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-25.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260925_STL@MIL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: STL@MIL.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 10.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 10.0, 'home_average_margin': 2.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0577, 'away_run_delta': -0.0577, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 8.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01954975966568399}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.019236645229298716}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.0187161066785954}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.018416344262370828}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01810344322405414}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.044939015489053935, '1': 0.06807003105797334, '2': 0.09331646246892544, '3': 0.11577919025637004, '4': 0.13000877672736497, '5': 0.13212492662589964, '6': 0.12152531888750913, '7': 0.10116230182459161, '8': 0.07621501842305357, '9': 0.051967561456174365, '10': 0.03206963674980345, '11': 0.017911240535921084, '12': 0.009053723243334102, '13': 0.0041418911973959294, '14': 0.0017149050566293688}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.06034150312408804, '1': 0.09046081228988125, '2': 0.12022608154222918, '3': 0.14165462306434004, '4': 0.14796420452166043, '5': 0.13701762177936705, '6': 0.11248381498743543, '7': 0.08186485563762541, '8': 0.05282005072176022, '9': 0.030213008870686075, '10': 0.015320854676726997, '11': 0.006887567353270577, '12': 0.0027450014309293256}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.15, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 1.6572, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.628, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 1.297}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'STL 4 - 5 MIL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'STL 4 - 5 MIL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.032, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.838, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'MIL', 'model_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 5, 'published_winner': 'MIL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'MIL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.297, 'winner': 'MIL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 140.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 146.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 146.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 140.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 7 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: STL 4 - 5 MIL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: STL 4 - 5 MIL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIL wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=MIL, simulation=MIL, published=MIL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.542.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): MIL wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: MIL wins 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: MIL wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIL wins and win_pct agree: 8/10 = 0.800.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	STL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	STL wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	STL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=4, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=7).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Brice Turang: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, BB current=1 box=0; Garrett Mitchell: 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; William Contreras: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Luis Lara: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Sal Frelick: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Jake Bauers: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; David Hamilton: H current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Christian Yelich: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=5; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=0; BB: current=3, sim=1; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	STL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: JJ Wetherholt: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Leonardo Bernal: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Thomas Saggese: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; José Fermín: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Jordan Walker: H current=1 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Iván Herrera: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Masyn Winn: H current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Pedro Pagés: H current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.302557082123973	4.814418718422804		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	5		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4	5	0.542	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	5		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	5		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	5		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
STL	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	1	4	5
MIL	0	0	2	0	0	0	3	0	0	5	9

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	STL	batting	32	8	1	0	1	4	4	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	STL	pitching		9			2		5	1	7					8.0	5	0	0
current	MIL	batting	34	8	2	0	1	4	5	4	8	0	0	0	0
current	MIL	pitching		5			0		4	1	8					9.0	4	0	0
simulation	STL	batting	32	5	2	0	0	4	4	1	8	0	1
simulation	STL	pitching		9			2		5	1	7					8.0	5	34	140
simulation	MIL	batting	33	9	1	0	2	5	5	1	7	0	0
simulation	MIL	pitching		5			0		4	1	8					9.0	4	34	146

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	STL		2B	JJ Wetherholt	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	STL		1B	Leonardo Bernal	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	STL		3B	Thomas Saggese	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	STL		LF	José Fermín	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.250
current	STL		RF	Jordan Walker	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	STL		DH	Iván Herrera	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	STL		SS	Masyn Winn	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	STL		C	Pedro Pagés	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	STL		CF	Victor Scott II	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	MIL		2B	Brice Turang	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	MIL		CF	Garrett Mitchell	0	4	1	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	MIL		C	William Contreras	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIL		RF	Luis Lara	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIL		LF	Sal Frelick	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	MIL		1B	Jake Bauers	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	MIL		3B	David Hamilton	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	MIL		DH	Christian Yelich	0	4	1	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	MIL		SS	Joey Ortiz	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	STL	1	2B	JJ Wetherholt	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	STL	2	DH	Iván Herrera	4	4	1	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	STL	3	RF	Jordan Walker	4	4	3	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.750
simulation	STL	4	1B	Leonardo Bernal	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	0.000
simulation	STL	5	LF	José Fermín	4	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	STL	6	3B	Thomas Saggese	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0.000
simulation	STL	7	SS	Masyn Winn	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	STL	8	C	Pedro Pagés	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	STL	9	CF	Victor Scott II	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	MIL	1	CF	Garrett Mitchell	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	MIL	2	2B	Brice Turang	4	4	2	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	MIL	3	C	William Contreras	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	MIL	4	1B	Jake Bauers	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	MIL	5	DH	Christian Yelich	4	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	MIL	6	SS	Joey Ortiz	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	MIL	7	RF	Luis Lara	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	MIL	8	LF	Sal Frelick	3	3	2	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.667
simulation	MIL	9	3B	David Hamilton	3	3	1	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0.333

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	STL	1	Michael McGreevy	Starter	5.1	6	2	2	0	7	1	0	0	3.38	3.84	1.25
current	STL	2	Riley O'Brien	Closer	1.2	3	3	3	1	0	1	0	0	16.20	4.08	1.28
current	STL	5	George Soriano	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	4.23	1.39
current	MIL	1	Robert Gasser	Starter	5.0	3	3	3	0	4	0	0	0	5.40	4.01	1.24
current	MIL	2	Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.2	2	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	5.40	3.19	1.34
current	MIL	3	Abner Uribe	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.01	1.03
current	MIL	4	Trevor Megill	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.08	0.86
simulation	STL	1	Michael McGreevy	Starter	5.1	6	2	2	0	7	1	22	93	3.38	3.84	1.25
simulation	STL	2	Riley O'Brien	Closer	1.2	3	3	3	1	0	1	9	34	16.20	4.08	1.28
simulation	STL	3	George Soriano	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	4.23	1.39
simulation	MIL	1	Robert Gasser	Starter	5.0	3	3	3	0	4	0	19	84	5.40	4.01	1.24
simulation	MIL	2	Trevor Megill	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	0	5	21	0.00	2.08	0.86
simulation	MIL	3	Abner Uribe	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	2.01	1.03
simulation	MIL	4	Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.2	2	1	1	0	2	0	7	28	5.40	3.19	1.34

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
STL	Michael McGreevy	Starter	5.1	2	6	0	7	22	93
STL	Riley O'Brien	Closer	1.2	3	3	1	0	9	34
STL	George Soriano	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13
MIL	Robert Gasser	Starter	5.0	3	3	0	4	19	84
MIL	Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.2	1	2	0	2	7	28
MIL	Abner Uribe	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13
MIL	Trevor Megill	Closer	1.1	0	0	1	1	5	21

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260925_TB@PHI

20260925_TB@PHI.json • 2026-09-25

TB 4 - PHI 5

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 100INFO 8

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PHI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TB pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=36; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=7; SF: current=0, sim=1; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PHI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryce Harper: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Alec Bohm: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Kyle Schwarber: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Bryson Stott: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Brandon Marsh: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Trea Turner: R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Edmundo Sosa: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1; J.T. Realmuto: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SF current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=6, sim=7; BB: current=2, sim=3).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=38; H: current=9, sim=8; HR: current=1, sim=0; BB: current=2, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=7).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TB current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jonathan Aranda: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jonny DeLuca: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0; Junior Caminero: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=3; Ryan Vilade: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Yandy Díaz: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Chandler Simpson: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2; Ben Williamson: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Nick Fortes: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	PHI	BATTING_REALISM	current:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TB	BATTING_REALISM	current:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	PHI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TB	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	PHI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TB	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	PHI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TB	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting walks match TB pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting home runs match TB pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting hits match TB pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting strikeouts match TB pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:PHI PA=41 matches TB BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:PHI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TB batting walks match PHI pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TB batting home runs match PHI pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TB batting hits match PHI pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TB batting strikeouts match PHI pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TB PA=42 matches PHI BF=42.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TB runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.545 -> 0.552 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.544574, 'sample_size': 777, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5586, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.551587, 'published_confidence': 0.534728, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	PHI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	PHI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	PHI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	PHI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TB current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TB current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TB current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TB hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.465.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.535.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.535.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.692/0.900.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 10 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: TB 8, PHI 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: TB 4 - PHI 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: PHI.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for PHI.	{'winner_confidence': 0.5347276, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-25.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260925_TB@PHI.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: TB@PHI.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': False, 'sample_size': 0, 'home_net_margin': 0.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0, 'away_run_delta': 0.0, 'evidence': []}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.021992844724931133}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02166974976278027}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.020865101192465617}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02066206861084593}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.020558573812112155}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.05639297909467745, '1': 0.08476922460065571, '2': 0.11357503047095635, '3': 0.13563100881982512, '4': 0.1443665575330821, '5': 0.13696376568880175, '6': 0.11581805144117163, '7': 0.08729277475545293, '8': 0.058642411586064085, '9': 0.03511371853542469, '10': 0.018740160413737522, '11': 0.008914587727973168, '12': 0.0037797293321773988}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.06635016959839081, '1': 0.0990605900509077, '2': 0.13004170747773308, '3': 0.150102282225678, '4': 0.1523403002796641, '5': 0.13594561339558078, '6': 0.10666906036600156, '7': 0.07359268018052652, '8': 0.04464302861079972, '9': 0.023811982744425923, '10': 0.011167612807789402, '11': 0.004605194916645022, '12': 0.0016697773458576035}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.15, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.4182, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.212, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.3461}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'TB 4 - 5 PHI', 'winner': 'PHI'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'TB 4 - 5 PHI', 'winner': 'PHI'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0926, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.212, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'PHI', 'model_winner': 'PHI', 'simulation_winner': 'PHI', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'PHI', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'PHI', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.3461, 'winner': 'PHI', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 175.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 168.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PHI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PHI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PHI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	PHI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 168.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TB	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TB pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TB	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TB pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 175.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	PHI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	PHI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TB	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TB	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PHI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TB	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TB	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TB 4 - 5 PHI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: TB 4 - 5 PHI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: PHI wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=PHI, simulation=PHI, published=PHI.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.535.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): PHI wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: PHI wins 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: PHI wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PHI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	PHI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PHI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	PHI wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TB	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TB recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TB	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TB wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	PHI	BATTING_REALISM	current:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TB	BATTING_REALISM	current:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	PHI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TB	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	PHI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TB	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	PHI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TB	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting walks match TB pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting home runs match TB pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting hits match TB pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting strikeouts match TB pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:PHI PA=41 matches TB BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:PHI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TB batting walks match PHI pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TB batting home runs match PHI pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TB batting hits match PHI pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TB batting strikeouts match PHI pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TB PA=42 matches PHI BF=42.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TB runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.545 -> 0.552 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.544574, 'sample_size': 777, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5586, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.551587, 'published_confidence': 0.534728, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	PHI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	PHI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	PHI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	PHI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TB current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TB current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TB current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TB hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.465.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.535.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.535.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.692/0.900.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 10 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: TB 8, PHI 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: TB 4 - PHI 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: PHI.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for PHI.	{'winner_confidence': 0.5347276, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-25.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260925_TB@PHI.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: TB@PHI.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': False, 'sample_size': 0, 'home_net_margin': 0.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0, 'away_run_delta': 0.0, 'evidence': []}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.021992844724931133}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02166974976278027}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.020865101192465617}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02066206861084593}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.020558573812112155}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.05639297909467745, '1': 0.08476922460065571, '2': 0.11357503047095635, '3': 0.13563100881982512, '4': 0.1443665575330821, '5': 0.13696376568880175, '6': 0.11581805144117163, '7': 0.08729277475545293, '8': 0.058642411586064085, '9': 0.03511371853542469, '10': 0.018740160413737522, '11': 0.008914587727973168, '12': 0.0037797293321773988}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.06635016959839081, '1': 0.0990605900509077, '2': 0.13004170747773308, '3': 0.150102282225678, '4': 0.1523403002796641, '5': 0.13594561339558078, '6': 0.10666906036600156, '7': 0.07359268018052652, '8': 0.04464302861079972, '9': 0.023811982744425923, '10': 0.011167612807789402, '11': 0.004605194916645022, '12': 0.0016697773458576035}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.15, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.4182, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.212, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.3461}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'TB 4 - 5 PHI', 'winner': 'PHI'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'TB 4 - 5 PHI', 'winner': 'PHI'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0926, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.212, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'PHI', 'model_winner': 'PHI', 'simulation_winner': 'PHI', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'PHI', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'PHI', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.3461, 'winner': 'PHI', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 175.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 168.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PHI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PHI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PHI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	PHI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 168.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TB	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TB pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TB	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TB pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 175.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	PHI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	PHI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TB	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TB	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PHI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TB	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TB	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TB 4 - 5 PHI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: TB 4 - 5 PHI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: PHI wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=PHI, simulation=PHI, published=PHI.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.535.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): PHI wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: PHI wins 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: PHI wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PHI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	PHI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PHI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	PHI wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TB	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TB recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TB	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TB wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PHI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TB pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=36; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=7; SF: current=0, sim=1; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PHI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryce Harper: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Alec Bohm: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Kyle Schwarber: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Bryson Stott: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Brandon Marsh: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Trea Turner: R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Edmundo Sosa: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1; J.T. Realmuto: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SF current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=6, sim=7; BB: current=2, sim=3).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=38; H: current=9, sim=8; HR: current=1, sim=0; BB: current=2, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=7).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TB current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jonathan Aranda: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jonny DeLuca: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0; Junior Caminero: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=3; Ryan Vilade: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Yandy Díaz: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Chandler Simpson: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2; Ben Williamson: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Nick Fortes: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.305586808667761	5.091075971633991		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	5		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4	5	0.535	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	5		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	5		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	5		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R	H
TB	0	2	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	8
PHI	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	5	7

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	TB	batting	32	9	1	0	1	4	4	2	8	0	0	0	0
current	TB	pitching		6			1		5	2	7					8.0	5	0	0
current	PHI	batting	32	8	1	0	1	4	4	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	PHI	pitching		8			0		4	4	7					9.0	4	0	0
simulation	TB	batting	38	8	1	0	0	4	4	4	7	0	0
simulation	TB	pitching		7			1		5	3	7					10.0	5	41	175
simulation	PHI	batting	36	7	3	0	1	5	5	3	7	1	1
simulation	PHI	pitching		8			0		4	4	7					10.0	4	42	168

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	TB		1B	Jonathan Aranda	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	TB		CF	Jonny DeLuca	0	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	TB		3B	Junior Caminero	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	TB		RF	Ryan Vilade	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	TB		DH	Yandy Díaz	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	TB		LF	Chandler Simpson	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	TB		2B	Ben Williamson	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	TB		C	Nick Fortes	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	TB		SS	Jorge Mateo	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	PHI		RF	Bryce Harper	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	PHI		1B	Alec Bohm	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	PHI		DH	Kyle Schwarber	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	PHI		2B	Bryson Stott	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	PHI		LF	Brandon Marsh	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	PHI		SS	Trea Turner	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	PHI		3B	Edmundo Sosa	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	PHI		C	J.T. Realmuto	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	PHI		CF	Justin Crawford	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
simulation	TB	1	DH	Yandy Díaz	5	5	3	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.600
simulation	TB	2	1B	Jonathan Aranda	5	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	TB	3	3B	Junior Caminero	5	3	1	1	0	1	3	2	2	0	0.333
simulation	TB	4	RF	Ryan Vilade	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	TB	5	CF	Jonny DeLuca	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	TB	6	LF	Chandler Simpson	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	TB	7	2B	Ben Williamson	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	TB	8	C	Nick Fortes	4	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	TB	9	SS	Jorge Mateo	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	PHI	1	DH	Kyle Schwarber	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	PHI	2	SS	Trea Turner	5	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
simulation	PHI	3	RF	Bryce Harper	5	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	PHI	4	1B	Alec Bohm	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	PHI	5	2B	Bryson Stott	5	5	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.200
simulation	PHI	6	LF	Brandon Marsh	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	PHI	7	CF	Justin Crawford	4	4	2	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	PHI	8	C	J.T. Realmuto	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	PHI	9	3B	Edmundo Sosa	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	TB	1	Freddy Peralta	Starter	5.2	5	5	5	2	6	1	0	0	7.94	4.56	1.33
current	TB	2	Bryan Baker	Closer	2.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.32	0.88
current	TB	3	Cam Booser	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.06	0.76
current	TB	4	Kevin Kelly	Setup Man	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		2.48	0.91
current	PHI	1	Cristopher Sánchez	Starter	6.1	7	3	3	3	6	0	0	0	4.26	2.92	1.22
current	PHI	2	Jhoan Duran	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.57	0.98
current	PHI	3	Jonathan Bowlan	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.36	1.03
current	PHI	4	Brooks Raley	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.96	1.18
current	PHI	5	José Alvarado	Middle Reliever	0.0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	0		5.43	1.59
simulation	TB	1	Freddy Peralta	Starter	5.2	5	4	4	2	6	1	25	106	6.35	4.56	1.33
simulation	TB	2	Bryan Baker	Closer	2.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	7	32	0.00	1.32	0.88
simulation	TB	3	Kevin Kelly	Setup Man	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	17	0.00	2.48	0.91
simulation	TB	4	Cam Booser	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	0	5	20	9.00	2.06	0.76
simulation	PHI	1	Cristopher Sánchez	Starter	6.1	7	3	3	3	6	0	29	114	4.26	2.92	1.22
simulation	PHI	2	Jhoan Duran	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	17	0.00	1.57	0.98
simulation	PHI	3	Jonathan Bowlan	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	3.36	1.03
simulation	PHI	4	Brooks Raley	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	17	0.00	2.96	1.18
simulation	PHI	5	José Alvarado	Middle Reliever	0.1	1	1	1	0	1	0	2	7	27.00	5.43	1.59

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
TB	Freddy Peralta	Starter	5.2	4	5	2	6	25	106
TB	Bryan Baker	Closer	2.0	0	1	0	1	7	32
TB	Cam Booser	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	1	1	0	5	20
TB	Kevin Kelly	Setup Man	1.1	0	0	0	0	4	17
PHI	Cristopher Sánchez	Starter	6.1	3	7	3	6	29	114
PHI	Jhoan Duran	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	0	4	17
PHI	Jonathan Bowlan	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13
PHI	Brooks Raley	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	1	0	4	17
PHI	José Alvarado	Middle Reliever	0.1	1	1	0	1	2	7

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	1	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260925_TEX@MIN

20260925_TEX@MIN.json • 2026-09-25

TEX 4 - MIN 5

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 102INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TEX pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=2, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=10; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Luke Keaschall: AB current=4 box=5, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Ryan Jeffers: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Kody Clemens: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2, HBP current=0 box=1; Brooks Lee: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Emmanuel Rodriguez: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Josh Bell: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Royce Lewis: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Walker Jenkins: R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=32; H: current=8, sim=5; BB: current=2, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=6; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TEX current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Josh Jung: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Ezequiel Duran: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Wyatt Langford: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=2; Brandon Nimmo: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Corey Seager: H current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Nicky Lopez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Jake Burger: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1; Danny Jansen: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TEX	BATTING_REALISM	current:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TEX	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TEX	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TEX	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting walks match TEX pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting home runs match TEX pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting hits match TEX pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting strikeouts match TEX pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIN PA=38 matches TEX BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting walks match MIN pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting home runs match MIN pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting hits match MIN pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting strikeouts match MIN pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TEX PA=38 matches MIN BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TEX runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.503 -> 0.529 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.502814, 'sample_size': 701, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5549, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.528857, 'published_confidence': 0.542262, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TEX current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TEX current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TEX current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TEX hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.458.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.542.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.542.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.477/0.657.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: TEX 5, MIN 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: TEX 4 - MIN 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIN.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for MIN.	{'winner_confidence': 0.542262, 'h2h_net_margin': 18, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-25.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260925_TEX@MIN.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: TEX@MIN.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 3, 'sample_weight': 0.0409, 'home_net_margin': 18.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 18.0, 'home_average_margin': 6.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.1227, 'away_run_delta': -0.1227, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 6.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 10.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.0180177546808895}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.017654977867611027}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.017478845981287693}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.0171269197753214}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01686284750396119}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.04259873526506877, '1': 0.06462719448205248, '2': 0.08901767156046338, '3': 0.11132161191908937, '4': 0.12639359634264366, '5': 0.13029057036003194, '6': 0.12193916823141471, '7': 0.10361337026275892, '8': 0.07993384452349193, '9': 0.05598709470015372, '10': 0.03560307348349121, '11': 0.02055556311997908, '12': 0.010774908626396535, '13': 0.005127907022567653, '14': 0.0022156901003966044}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.05100449885124637, '1': 0.07694497445091776, '2': 0.10420791775237594, '3': 0.1266980292321072, '4': 0.13828901532245225, '5': 0.1355046479482362, '6': 0.11919811386114777, '7': 0.09413112686464174, '8': 0.06673379384150006, '9': 0.042472424810719465, '10': 0.024267049735708663, '11': 0.012447312342171427, '12': 0.005731692435786659, '13': 0.0023694025509884854}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.15, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.1887, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.208, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.1954}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'TEX 4 - 5 MIN', 'winner': 'MIN'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'TEX 4 - 5 MIN', 'winner': 'MIN'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0542, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.142, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'MIN', 'model_winner': 'MIN', 'simulation_winner': 'MIN', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 1, 'published_winner': 'MIN', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'MIN', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.1954, 'winner': 'MIN', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 149.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 164.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 164.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TEX	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TEX pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TEX	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TEX pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 149.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TEX	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TEX	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TEX	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TEX 4 - 5 MIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: TEX 4 - 5 MIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIN wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=MIN, simulation=MIN, published=MIN.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.542.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): MIN wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: MIN wins 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: MIN wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIN wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TEX	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TEX recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TEX	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TEX wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TEX	BATTING_REALISM	current:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TEX	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TEX	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TEX	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting walks match TEX pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting home runs match TEX pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting hits match TEX pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting strikeouts match TEX pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIN PA=38 matches TEX BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting walks match MIN pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting home runs match MIN pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting hits match MIN pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting strikeouts match MIN pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TEX PA=38 matches MIN BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TEX runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.503 -> 0.529 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.502814, 'sample_size': 701, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5549, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.528857, 'published_confidence': 0.542262, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TEX current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TEX current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TEX current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TEX hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.458.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.542.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.542.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.477/0.657.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: TEX 5, MIN 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: TEX 4 - MIN 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIN.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for MIN.	{'winner_confidence': 0.542262, 'h2h_net_margin': 18, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-25.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260925_TEX@MIN.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: TEX@MIN.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 3, 'sample_weight': 0.0409, 'home_net_margin': 18.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 18.0, 'home_average_margin': 6.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.1227, 'away_run_delta': -0.1227, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 6.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 10.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.0180177546808895}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.017654977867611027}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.017478845981287693}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.0171269197753214}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01686284750396119}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.04259873526506877, '1': 0.06462719448205248, '2': 0.08901767156046338, '3': 0.11132161191908937, '4': 0.12639359634264366, '5': 0.13029057036003194, '6': 0.12193916823141471, '7': 0.10361337026275892, '8': 0.07993384452349193, '9': 0.05598709470015372, '10': 0.03560307348349121, '11': 0.02055556311997908, '12': 0.010774908626396535, '13': 0.005127907022567653, '14': 0.0022156901003966044}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.05100449885124637, '1': 0.07694497445091776, '2': 0.10420791775237594, '3': 0.1266980292321072, '4': 0.13828901532245225, '5': 0.1355046479482362, '6': 0.11919811386114777, '7': 0.09413112686464174, '8': 0.06673379384150006, '9': 0.042472424810719465, '10': 0.024267049735708663, '11': 0.012447312342171427, '12': 0.005731692435786659, '13': 0.0023694025509884854}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.15, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.1887, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.208, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.1954}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'TEX 4 - 5 MIN', 'winner': 'MIN'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'TEX 4 - 5 MIN', 'winner': 'MIN'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0542, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.142, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'MIN', 'model_winner': 'MIN', 'simulation_winner': 'MIN', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 1, 'published_winner': 'MIN', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'MIN', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.1954, 'winner': 'MIN', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 149.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 164.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 164.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TEX	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TEX pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TEX	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TEX pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 149.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TEX	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TEX	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TEX	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TEX 4 - 5 MIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: TEX 4 - 5 MIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIN wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=MIN, simulation=MIN, published=MIN.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.542.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): MIN wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: MIN wins 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: MIN wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIN wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TEX	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TEX recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TEX	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TEX wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TEX pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=2, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=10; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Luke Keaschall: AB current=4 box=5, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Ryan Jeffers: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Kody Clemens: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2, HBP current=0 box=1; Brooks Lee: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Emmanuel Rodriguez: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Josh Bell: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Royce Lewis: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Walker Jenkins: R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=32; H: current=8, sim=5; BB: current=2, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=6; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TEX current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Josh Jung: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Ezequiel Duran: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Wyatt Langford: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=2; Brandon Nimmo: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Corey Seager: H current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Nicky Lopez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Jake Burger: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1; Danny Jansen: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.346525038132847	4.698770885514058		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	5		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4	5	0.542	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	5		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	5		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	5		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TEX	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	5
MIN	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	2	0	5	9

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	TEX	batting	31	8	2	0	1	4	4	2	8	0	0	0	0
current	TEX	pitching		9			1		5	4	10					8.0	5	0	0
current	MIN	batting	33	8	2	0	1	4	4	3	9	0	0	0	0
current	MIN	pitching		5			1		4	5	6					9.0	4	0	0
simulation	TEX	batting	32	5	2	0	1	4	4	5	6	0	1
simulation	TEX	pitching		9			1		5	4	10					8.0	5	38	149
simulation	MIN	batting	33	9	3	0	1	5	5	4	10	0	1
simulation	MIN	pitching		5			1		4	5	6					9.0	4	38	164

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	TEX		DH	Josh Jung	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	TEX		3B	Ezequiel Duran	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	TEX		LF	Wyatt Langford	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.333
current	TEX		RF	Brandon Nimmo	0	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	TEX		SS	Corey Seager	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	TEX		2B	Nicky Lopez	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	TEX		1B	Jake Burger	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	TEX		C	Danny Jansen	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	TEX		CF	Evan Carter	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	MIN		RF	Luke Keaschall	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	MIN		C	Ryan Jeffers	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	MIN		2B	Kody Clemens	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIN		3B	Brooks Lee	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIN		LF	Emmanuel Rodriguez	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	MIN		DH	Josh Bell	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	MIN		1B	Royce Lewis	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIN		CF	Walker Jenkins	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	MIN		SS	Ryan Kreidler	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	TEX	1	RF	Brandon Nimmo	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	TEX	2	DH	Josh Jung	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	TEX	3	SS	Corey Seager	4	4	2	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	TEX	4	LF	Wyatt Langford	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0.000
simulation	TEX	5	3B	Ezequiel Duran	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0	1	1	0.333
simulation	TEX	6	2B	Nicky Lopez	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	TEX	7	1B	Jake Burger	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	TEX	8	CF	Evan Carter	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	TEX	9	C	Danny Jansen	4	4	1	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	MIN	1	RF	Luke Keaschall	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0.200
simulation	MIN	2	3B	Brooks Lee	5	4	1	1	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	MIN	3	2B	Kody Clemens	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0	2	1	0.333
simulation	MIN	4	DH	Josh Bell	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	MIN	5	C	Ryan Jeffers	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	MIN	6	CF	Walker Jenkins	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	MIN	7	1B	Royce Lewis	4	4	2	2	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	MIN	8	LF	Emmanuel Rodriguez	4	4	1	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	MIN	9	SS	Ryan Kreidler	4	4	2	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.500

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	TEX	1	Jacob deGrom	Starter	5.2	5	3	3	4	8	1	0	0	4.76	3.86	1.10
current	TEX	2	Jacob Latz	Closer	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	1.77	0.76
current	TEX	3	Jakob Junis	Setup Man	1.0	3	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	18.00	2.89	1.17
current	MIN	1	Joe Ryan	Starter	5.0	4	4	4	3	5	1	0	0	7.20	3.83	1.18
current	MIN	2	A.J. Minter	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.01	1.01
current	MIN	3	Andrew Morris	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	4.21	1.36
current	MIN	4	Jeff Hoffman	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.55	1.32
current	MIN	5	Yoendrys Gómez	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	4.36	1.47
simulation	TEX	1	Jacob deGrom	Starter	5.2	5	3	3	4	8	1	27	107	4.76	3.86	1.10
simulation	TEX	2	Jacob Latz	Closer	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	0	5	20	0.00	1.77	0.76
simulation	TEX	3	Jakob Junis	Setup Man	1.0	3	2	2	0	0	0	6	22	18.00	2.89	1.17
simulation	MIN	1	Joe Ryan	Starter	5.0	4	4	4	3	5	1	23	99	7.20	3.83	1.18
simulation	MIN	2	Yoendrys Gómez	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	4.36	1.47
simulation	MIN	3	Jeff Hoffman	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	3.55	1.32
simulation	MIN	4	A.J. Minter	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	0	5	22	0.00	2.01	1.01
simulation	MIN	5	Andrew Morris	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	17	0.00	4.21	1.36

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
TEX	Jacob deGrom	Starter	5.2	3	5	4	8	27	107
TEX	Jacob Latz	Closer	1.1	0	1	0	2	5	20
TEX	Jakob Junis	Setup Man	1.0	2	3	0	0	6	22
MIN	Joe Ryan	Starter	5.0	4	4	3	5	23	99
MIN	A.J. Minter	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	1	1	0	5	22
MIN	Andrew Morris	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	1	0	4	17
MIN	Jeff Hoffman	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13
MIN	Yoendrys Gómez	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.